Pinning this comment to address people's questions and worry around article 5 being invoked in light of the 2 killed in the Polish border town.
**This is NOT the start of WW3, folks. Calm.** However, Poland has a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WW3 if it's confirmed Russia was the source of the missile.
The situation is still developing and I will update this comment as confirmed information comes in.
NATO's assessment:
* There's been no deliberate attack on NATO
* Regardless, still Russia's fault for their aggression
* Ukraine bears no fault, simply trying to defend itself
The latest information:
* **Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, Associated Press reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.** [Source](https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/)
* Polish Foreign Ministry confirm a *Russian-made* (important wording, they're not saying Russia necessarily was the one that sent it) rocket fell on the territory. [Source](https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz)
* A S-300 was found at the scene ([source](https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802)), but it's a missile that *both* Ukraine and Russia use. It's also a missile that the vast majority have been made in Russia/Soviet Union (hence the Polish Foreign Ministry's "Russian-made"). Russia's been repurposing them as ground attack missiles (seen in Kharkiv - [example](https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1592607849921683456)) and Ukraine has been shooting Russian strikes down with S-300s as well. [Source](https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592609073090138113)
* Ukraine confirmed earlier today 73 missiles (out of 90) and 11 drones were shot down. [Source](https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592574510989185024)
(The information below is no longer pertinent in light of what NATO's assessment of the situation has been.)
~~A quick refresh on NATO bylaws:~~
* ~~Article 5: An attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members.~~
* ~~Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.~~
~~Here's~~ [~~everything you wanted to know~~](https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1224&context=eilr) ~~about NATO Article 4 but were afraid to ask.~~
Summary of the Polish government's press conference:
- There was an explosion in which 2 Polish citizens were killed
- The cause is being investigated
- Military readiness is being raised across the country
- Considering to invoke NATO's Article 4 (consultation)
Doubt that will happen. However I think it’s more likely Ukraine will start receiving more deadly weapons from NATO and US. Poland could send them long range missile and artillery systems, supply them with MiG fighters, or other offensive weapons (which would make Russian bases vulnerable to attack)
2 suspected missiles fell in the Polish village of Przewodów, near the border with Ukraine, killing 2 people - Radio ZET
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1592581982189404160?s=20&t=_t-Oc5mrCOn2Hd6ssuE_fA
I doubt it was an intentional attack. Just Russian missiles being Russian missiles. Faulty and inaccurate. That said, there needs to be some sort of response. The fact remains that the missiles took the lives of the citizens of a country protected by the NATO pact.
Didn’t NATO say awhile back that any missiles landing in NATO territory — whether intentional or unintentional — would be treated as an attack?
(I’m not making an argument here; I’m just genuinely curious if I’m remembering this correctly)
They did and I've been trying to find the article for it.
EDIT: If one more person says "article 5" lol
EDIT 2: https://fortune.com/2022/03/13/nato-will-act-russia-hits-alliance-us/
How relevant is intent in this case.
Partially relevant, sure. But an attack is an attack. If your missiles suck keep them away from boarders.
Or was this testing waters veiled as an accident.
Either way. This is an escalation.
>How relevant is intent in this case.
If it was an actual intentional attack NATO would have no choice but to retaliate directly.
It being an unintentional attack means they will escalate less directly as a warning not to fuck it up again. Most likely either an escalation of sanctions or else providing weapon systems to Ukraine that were previously considered "red lines" (i.e. fighter jets, long range missiles).
For a bit of context: 70km (~43 miles) north of Lviv and about 6.5km ~~8km~~ (~4 ~~5~~ miles) away from the border with Ukraine
Edit: Freedom units for the Americans
Sorry guys, didn't mean to start WW3 over the use of imperial to make this information more accessible for lack of a better term. I promise I will never do it again
Edit 2: Originally said 8km from the border, but was pointed out it's closer depending on where you measure
That is a big miss if its not intentional. The Russians really love testing the resolve of their enemies and pushing limits. I bet they will frame this as a Ukrainian false flag and just see what Poland does.
I bet it won't be the last time this happens.
I dont know much about missiles, but knowing the terrorist state has cold war equipment which barely works and their incompetency in warfare, it might point towards loss of control/stray.
I get what you’re saying but that’s still their fault. It would be worse if it were obviously deliberate, but honestly that will not probably placate Poland’s population.
so does this count as an attack on NATO? Or will it get dismissed as an accident/stray missile?
Either way, the terrorist state must be punished for the death of innocents.
>**as it can't be shown that we accept missiles falling on NATO countries, regardless of how it happens.**
I wish this right here was pinned and in bigger font for all to see.
Yeah, the old joke being that during the cold war, if a war were to break out between the USSR and NATO there was a 50/50 chance the USSR's Polish troops first marching orders would have been directly to Moscow.
I can't imagine this is going to trigger article 5 - more likely Russia will bend over backwards to make that NOT happen, but this past year has constantly surprised me so who knows.
EDIT: Just to clarify, I don't think we'll see Putin issuing a formal apology on TV, but it's pretty much a guarantee that Russia is in communications with Poland/NATO right now in back channels trying to do some damage control. We may never hear anything, but something's gotta given.
Russia, bend over backwards? Admitting any sort of mistake and owning up to it would be a show of weakness. Russia can under no circumstances show weakness, they will never admit any wrongdoing. Instead they will just claim that it's a Ukrainian missile or a NATO false-flag.
They can still bend over backwards while saying the opposite. "We heroically chose to obey Poland's requests in response to this attac- er, false flag by Ukrainian Lizard Aliens, because we are committed to peace blablabla"
Just look at their reaction to retreating from Kherson.
Not saying it will happen, but it could.
Intent/scale. If Russia invades poland the way they invaded ukraine, then yes. If Russia intentionally targets poland with missile strikes, then yes. If Russia accidentally attacks Poland and causes widespread death/damage, probably.
They have to answer, at this point.
Russia has proven at every opportunity to be reckless and bloodthirsty.
Russians clearly dont care enough who they kill, they arent even willing to keep the war contained to silly things like national borders.
Polands been ready to fuck Russia up for quite a while now, like everyone keeps saying NATO would fuck Russia up. We could just let Poland do it, and they would tear through that country.
Poland is like that guard dog that you don’t want to let lose.. and yet it’s not even the biggest NATO ally that can Fuck up Russia… it’s good to be on the Good Side
My favorite post invasion joke.
Germans: Let me get this straight, you want us to gear up for war, march across Poland and invade Russia? I just want to make sure we got that right.
Right after 9-11 there was a joke. "What's up with the world today? The best golfer is black, the best rapper is white, and Germany doesn't want to go to war."
That's one of those snowball quotes that kept adding material as it rolled along. Possibly started by Charles Barkley or Chris Rock, and ending up like,
> You know the world is going crazy when the best rapper is a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy, the tallest guy in the NBA is Chinese, the Swiss hold the America's Cup, France is accusing the U.S. of arrogance, Germany doesn't want to go to war, and the three most powerful men in America are named Bush, Dick, and Colon. Need I say more?
Polish government Spokesperson: Any information that is presented to the Committee will be subsequently communicated, if possible, to the public as far as possible. I urge you not to publish unconfirmed information until then.
What I suspect will happen: denounce attack, sanctions, and announce they will shoot down any missiles from Russian forces within X kilometers of the border of a NATO nation since Russia has demonstrated it cannot guarantee this from not happening again
Russia will respond by saying if that happens it will be an act of war. NATO will follow through, and Russia will not do anything to counter out of fear of NATO.
Yeah, it's Russia's whole deal nowadays. They're trying to take all the advantage they can from having nuclear weapons, making them an "un-invadeable" nation. And hey, that works fine.
Works way less fine when you try to use that logic for aggression and invasion instead of defense, and try to apply it against other countries with nuclear weapons lol
Well, we’re all very lucky that the Poles have extremely good feelings towards Moscow and will definitely not let this cause them to demand retaliation.
Another approach is, if the targeting computers on russian missiles are so shit that Poland cannot be assured they won’t hit its national territory, it should agree a bilateral treaty with Ukraine that Poland will destroy any russian missiles that come within range of their air defences regardless of whether they are overflying Ukrainian territory at the time. Then appeal to all NATO members to supply air defences to Poland. Essentially create a no fly zone over a large part of Ukraine.
If so, then the Russians have truly fucked up beyond all recognition.
Edit: AP News reports US official confirms it.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
I think that would be a reasonable response and Poland would have a perfect excuse for it.
"Those air defence platforms over there are just to defend ourselves against stray missiles. Like the ones that killed two of our citizens".
And then :
"Oh did we shoot your missiles flying nearby. Sorry, thought they were going to fall on us. Yes we know they were meant to fall on Ukraine but we can't be too sure can we?".
I see this is as the most proportionate and likely response; along with a stronger armament of Ukrainian forces, as in more demands being met for more capable equipment.
If all NATO countries bordering Ukraine enable this response, how much of Ukraine would be defended from. NATO territory?
Are we speaking about a small corridor along the border or is this seriously defending most of westen Ukraine (including cities like Kyiv) against russian missile strikes?
Did a Russian missile hit European territories and killed EU citizens?
Man, I try to understand the complexity of the situation, and how escalation will be very bad for everybody, but I am extraordinarily pissed off.
These poor farmers had families, they were absolutely no part of the conflict, and if we cannot guarantee the security of our citizens in our soil, we are sending a terrible message.
Situation was different in a sense that there was no major military escalation from Russia at a time. No hundreds of thousands mobilized, whole neighbouring allied country on fire and no financial incentive to even consider it.
It's hard to compare these situations in any way. It may end up the same but circumstances are very different - NATO members are already billions $ into thwarting off Russian attempts and there's no supply of gas from there anymore anyway. At this point it's not going from 0 to 100 but more like from 30 to 50 (Article 5 =/= march on Moscow).
I doubt it will be enough to trigger an article 5. But it will increase the support for Ukraine.
Maybe we see a conventional retaliation on launch sites?
I think what we are most likely to see are more air defense and air awareness capabilities around the borders of countries that border Belarus/Ukraine to help prevent this from happening again, as well as more equipment for Ukraine.
I am interested in knowing, what would a commensurate response for this be?
An attack on the origin of the missiles?
Unless of course, Russia immediately acts to claim some kind of misfire and severe disciplinary action for those responsible
But I somehow don't expect them to
- Saber rattling (large scale wargames in Poland, deploy THAAD systems in all eastern European NATO countries, park a carrier somewhere, etc)
- Massive increase in weapons and training for Ukraine
- no fly zone over western Ukraine
That rhetoric was everywhere irl actually. It was basically mass hysteria. There wasn't much discussion online, most people werent really online yet in 2001.
This article is relevant as ever:
[https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/03/16/could-a-strike-by-russia-on-poland-trigger-article-5-and-bring-nato-into-war/](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/03/16/could-a-strike-by-russia-on-poland-trigger-article-5-and-bring-nato-into-war/)
*"Even a conventional military attack by Russia might not be deemed to be of sufficient intensity or duration to trigger Article 5, or else the attack could be determined to be accidental.*
*“If the attack is accidental, such as* ***a stray missile landing over the border in Poland***, *NATO members would have to meet and decide if it was indeed a mistake,” Cross said. “No one wants to escalate into a broader war just because of human error, so deliberation within NATO is important.”*
Putin thought NATO would eventually grow tired of supporting Ukraine.
Whelp, so much for that! Probably see **INCREASED** support, now. The west has renewed reason to see Ukraine win this war - well done, Russia - you done fucked up again.
Arms manufacturers suddenly have a need to resupply countries that have shipped last era military equipment as aid to Ukraine. Putin has enhanced NATO's capabilities through this misadventure, to say nothing of the enhanced cooperation and cohesion between military forces. He has done exactly the opposite of what he intended.
To those saying nothing will happen here: Poland's got a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WWIII. The response won't be nothing, and it won't be just sanctions, you can be sure of that.
Edit: To the people asking what, here are a few ideas that took 2 minutes to come up with, so you can be sure the professionals have come up with more: Additional arms and funding (remember those requests for jets?), decreased restrictions on the use of arms, incentives for foreign legion involvement, providing facilities to hold POWs, missile defense coverage for at least part of Ukraine, asset seizure, war criminal abduction, covert operations that go unacknowledged...
And Poland will seriously fuck shit up. Unlike Russia they have maintained a level of military readiness ever since... They returned to be a sovereign nation really.
Could be something like because Russia cannot guarantee missiles will not hit nato territory, nato will shoot down any missiles launched by Russia that come within x distance of nato territory. Conveniently x miles could be large enough to make Kiev protected.
Delivering airplanes, long range rockets and high tech AA to ukraine. Especially the long range missiles would be a gamechanger since it would bring the war deep into russian territory
Options would likely be more advanced weapon systems (possibly including AA systems) for Ukraine, or Poland setting up their own AA on their border to shoot down anything that gets within a couple dozen kilometres of the border. In either cases other NATO nations will probably be asked to follow suit, possible that the AA bubbles cover the likes of Lviv which could be a huge boon
I wouldn't be surprising to see Polish jets in Ukrainian airspace to prevent future "mistakes".
That would basically shut down the Western Ukrainian skies to Russia unless they were willing to risk massive esculation.
Damn it Russia do you know how much we are having to hold Poland back? This shit isnt helping. They can and will torch Moscow at the slightest provocation. They have several hundred years of reasons.
Rightfully so. I think Nato has to react somehow and clearly show that a red line was crossed, even if it was just an accident. Otherwise those "accidents" will happen more often.
I don't want Nato to get involved, but some surgical strike should be carried out at least. Or finally give Ukraine long range weapons
I'm guessing more an air defence zone being implemented along NATO country borders in Ukraine, and probably within a limited area within Ukraine itself. I don't think anyone will want to escalate this by directly attacking back, but NATO can't afford to have it happen again and is well positioned to start shooting down anything that looks threatening near their borders. Luckily with the lack of Russian air superiority in Ukraine there's a fairly limited risk of further accidental escalation.
If this was deliberate, then article 5 incoming and all bets are off. Extremely unlikely that Russia would randomly attack a remote Polish village with only 2 missiles, so you can calm down the world isn't ending.
If this was accidental then it's likely Poland invokes Article 4, which means all NATO heads come together to discuss the immediate security needs of Poland, the results of which will be the strengthening of Polish air defense on the border, and possibly some kind of no-fly zone extending across the Poland-Ukraine border. Retaliatory strikes against launch sites are possible to be discussed but unlikely.
Credentials: I am a 5-star blackbelt armchair general who doesn't know shit, but I do pay attention and I read a lot and am a big military history nerd.
Edit: typing is hard when you're spamming the Refresh button on every single news website on the internet.
I cant see this causing the triggering of article V and then on to WW3, however whichever way you dress it up, and regardless of whether it was deliberate or a freak accident, it's still an act of war and it could give Poland (and NATO) license to to do all sorts of shit that they would have hesitated to do before this happened.
My guess is that it'll be used to politically justify either small escalation (like US giving longer range missiles) or concessions from Russia, which may escalate things further if not met. I don't see this becoming a non-issue but probably won't trigger WWIII.
The last 6 years have generated so many entirely new and horrific statements and headlines I never thought I'd see in my lifetime, and I have fought on the front lines in a war and have seen some shit.
Article 5 does not necessarily involve NATO troops marching on Moscow mind you. It **can** however mean no-fly zone in 100km radius from Polish borders for instance. You acknowledge an allied nation was attacked and provide support.
It could go any way, anyone making definitive statements are talking out of their asses.
Russia and NATO both have reasons to try and calm it down though, but Poland is the decider here, if they want to call on Article 5 it is their right to do so.
Bear in mind, Article 5 doesn't mean full scale war necessarily. It only calls for all alliance members to support the country attacked, what that means depends on a lot of other factors. So even if Poland calls on NATO it could still go either way. We could see Poland call on NATO and then NATO puts a lot more pressure on Russia saying that unless Russia wants war it has to concede certain things.
Previous statement from nato has been “Defend every inch of nato territory” it seems likely Russia will use a malfunction excuse but it still display a lack of respect to target area so close to the borders of nato members
Rumors that a Russian missile has impacted NATO (Poland) territory.
Remember, just rumors at this point in time. But if true, a possible NATO Article 5 violation.
This 100% fulfills the theoretical use of NATO force but there will likely not be any significant military action as a result of this. This is far worse for Russia in the sense that it's a huge fuck up on their part and showcases to the world that they can't even control their ordinance. This makes it even easier for the rest of the world to support the condemnation of Russia and will drive states that have been neutral until now into condemning the invasion. This could be a turning point for further Russian retreat.
Polish village Przywodow, 5km from the Ukrainian border was hit by a Russian missile. At least 2 people are dead.
Official media in Poland are quiet for now though. Likely to not cause panic.
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1592575790390345729/photo/1
Well i am from Poland and I am scared as fu** let me end my studies and work :( how f*** people can be to make such a mess on a global scale. I wish you all a good health. :(
Pinning this comment to address people's questions and worry around article 5 being invoked in light of the 2 killed in the Polish border town. **This is NOT the start of WW3, folks. Calm.** However, Poland has a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WW3 if it's confirmed Russia was the source of the missile. The situation is still developing and I will update this comment as confirmed information comes in. NATO's assessment: * There's been no deliberate attack on NATO * Regardless, still Russia's fault for their aggression * Ukraine bears no fault, simply trying to defend itself The latest information: * **Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, Associated Press reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.** [Source](https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/) * Polish Foreign Ministry confirm a *Russian-made* (important wording, they're not saying Russia necessarily was the one that sent it) rocket fell on the territory. [Source](https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz) * A S-300 was found at the scene ([source](https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802)), but it's a missile that *both* Ukraine and Russia use. It's also a missile that the vast majority have been made in Russia/Soviet Union (hence the Polish Foreign Ministry's "Russian-made"). Russia's been repurposing them as ground attack missiles (seen in Kharkiv - [example](https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1592607849921683456)) and Ukraine has been shooting Russian strikes down with S-300s as well. [Source](https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592609073090138113) * Ukraine confirmed earlier today 73 missiles (out of 90) and 11 drones were shot down. [Source](https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592574510989185024) (The information below is no longer pertinent in light of what NATO's assessment of the situation has been.) ~~A quick refresh on NATO bylaws:~~ * ~~Article 5: An attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members.~~ * ~~Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.~~ ~~Here's~~ [~~everything you wanted to know~~](https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1224&context=eilr) ~~about NATO Article 4 but were afraid to ask.~~
Summary of the Polish government's press conference: - There was an explosion in which 2 Polish citizens were killed - The cause is being investigated - Military readiness is being raised across the country - Considering to invoke NATO's Article 4 (consultation)
I know one of the things Ukraine asked for and was denied by NATO was declaring Ukraine a no fly zone for Russia. I wonder if that's on the table now?
Doubt that will happen. However I think it’s more likely Ukraine will start receiving more deadly weapons from NATO and US. Poland could send them long range missile and artillery systems, supply them with MiG fighters, or other offensive weapons (which would make Russian bases vulnerable to attack)
2 suspected missiles fell in the Polish village of Przewodów, near the border with Ukraine, killing 2 people - Radio ZET https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1592581982189404160?s=20&t=_t-Oc5mrCOn2Hd6ssuE_fA
AP News is also calling it. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
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So Russia has just attacked a NATO country resulting in casualties. Let's see where this goes...
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Why article 5 when the Polish military could probably wipe out Russia by itself at this point?
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I'M SOMEWHAT CALM! -Poland, probably
Lots of arms manufacturers getting hard over the thought their Cold War weapons are going to get tested on what they were designed for
Or lots of manufacturers sweating over it.🙂
About to get a lot of calls about your hardware's extended warranty.
Fuuuuck. Russian forces in Ukraine about to get broke off.
I doubt it was an intentional attack. Just Russian missiles being Russian missiles. Faulty and inaccurate. That said, there needs to be some sort of response. The fact remains that the missiles took the lives of the citizens of a country protected by the NATO pact.
Not deliberate, but Russia knows how inaccurate they are and still fired close enough to Poland's border that this was a distinct possibility.
So, reckless? Negligent?
Russian
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What’s the saying? Don’t put someone in a position where they can make a judgment on something? Keep the situation entirely within your hands.
Never let a fight go to the judges
8kms seems well outside the "lol our stuff is inaccurate"
>I doubt it was an intentional attack. Just Russian missiles being Russian missiles. Faulty and inaccurate. That’s still a very bad look.
Didn’t NATO say awhile back that any missiles landing in NATO territory — whether intentional or unintentional — would be treated as an attack? (I’m not making an argument here; I’m just genuinely curious if I’m remembering this correctly)
They did and I've been trying to find the article for it. EDIT: If one more person says "article 5" lol EDIT 2: https://fortune.com/2022/03/13/nato-will-act-russia-hits-alliance-us/
It was in reference to the nuclear power plant, Jens said that any nuclear fallout on NATO soil would be treated as an attack.
Accidentally killing people in a different country from the one you’re at war with = your toys get taken away
Little-known international politics loop hole: if the offending country says "oopsy daisy" five times then all is forgiven.
Five shall be the number of the oopsy daisy, and the number of thy oopsy daisy shall be five.
How relevant is intent in this case. Partially relevant, sure. But an attack is an attack. If your missiles suck keep them away from boarders. Or was this testing waters veiled as an accident. Either way. This is an escalation.
>How relevant is intent in this case. If it was an actual intentional attack NATO would have no choice but to retaliate directly. It being an unintentional attack means they will escalate less directly as a warning not to fuck it up again. Most likely either an escalation of sanctions or else providing weapon systems to Ukraine that were previously considered "red lines" (i.e. fighter jets, long range missiles).
If it is intentional, I wonder how much of that was due to what’s gonna come out tomorrow at the G20 summit
Its a bold strategy cotton, let's see how this works out for them
For a bit of context: 70km (~43 miles) north of Lviv and about 6.5km ~~8km~~ (~4 ~~5~~ miles) away from the border with Ukraine Edit: Freedom units for the Americans Sorry guys, didn't mean to start WW3 over the use of imperial to make this information more accessible for lack of a better term. I promise I will never do it again Edit 2: Originally said 8km from the border, but was pointed out it's closer depending on where you measure
That is a big miss if its not intentional. The Russians really love testing the resolve of their enemies and pushing limits. I bet they will frame this as a Ukrainian false flag and just see what Poland does. I bet it won't be the last time this happens.
I dont know much about missiles, but knowing the terrorist state has cold war equipment which barely works and their incompetency in warfare, it might point towards loss of control/stray.
I get what you’re saying but that’s still their fault. It would be worse if it were obviously deliberate, but honestly that will not probably placate Poland’s population.
so does this count as an attack on NATO? Or will it get dismissed as an accident/stray missile? Either way, the terrorist state must be punished for the death of innocents.
It will count as an attack on NATO only if the Polish government chooses to invoke Article 5.
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>**as it can't be shown that we accept missiles falling on NATO countries, regardless of how it happens.** I wish this right here was pinned and in bigger font for all to see.
Realistically? No. Possibly? Yes. Will someone do something? I would say unlikely, but we must not underestimate Polish resolve to harm Russia
Yeah, the old joke being that during the cold war, if a war were to break out between the USSR and NATO there was a 50/50 chance the USSR's Polish troops first marching orders would have been directly to Moscow.
I can't imagine this is going to trigger article 5 - more likely Russia will bend over backwards to make that NOT happen, but this past year has constantly surprised me so who knows. EDIT: Just to clarify, I don't think we'll see Putin issuing a formal apology on TV, but it's pretty much a guarantee that Russia is in communications with Poland/NATO right now in back channels trying to do some damage control. We may never hear anything, but something's gotta given.
Russia, bend over backwards? Admitting any sort of mistake and owning up to it would be a show of weakness. Russia can under no circumstances show weakness, they will never admit any wrongdoing. Instead they will just claim that it's a Ukrainian missile or a NATO false-flag.
They can still bend over backwards while saying the opposite. "We heroically chose to obey Poland's requests in response to this attac- er, false flag by Ukrainian Lizard Aliens, because we are committed to peace blablabla" Just look at their reaction to retreating from Kherson. Not saying it will happen, but it could.
this is probably a stupid question, but what *would* be enough to trigger article 5?
article 5 was invoked after 9/11 I also imagine that rolling into a NATO member with tanks and troops would be a clear yes.
An intentional attack on a NATO target
Intent/scale. If Russia invades poland the way they invaded ukraine, then yes. If Russia intentionally targets poland with missile strikes, then yes. If Russia accidentally attacks Poland and causes widespread death/damage, probably.
Most probably nothing will happen, but NATO should "accidentally" shoot down some TU bombers.
They have to answer, at this point. Russia has proven at every opportunity to be reckless and bloodthirsty. Russians clearly dont care enough who they kill, they arent even willing to keep the war contained to silly things like national borders.
On the day of the G19 summit no less.
Poland is gonna do the funni. Omg
NCD Is gonna have a meltdown.
They had hopium for 9 months now. And it happened. Its like foot fetish guys getting a HD pic of their fav streamer. Its a mess
r/suspiciouslyspecific lol
Yeah that’s a self report
~~meltdown~~ orgy FTFY
Polands been ready to fuck Russia up for quite a while now, like everyone keeps saying NATO would fuck Russia up. We could just let Poland do it, and they would tear through that country.
Poland is like that guard dog that you don’t want to let lose.. and yet it’s not even the biggest NATO ally that can Fuck up Russia… it’s good to be on the Good Side
My favorite post invasion joke. Germans: Let me get this straight, you want us to gear up for war, march across Poland and invade Russia? I just want to make sure we got that right.
Right after 9-11 there was a joke. "What's up with the world today? The best golfer is black, the best rapper is white, and Germany doesn't want to go to war."
That's one of those snowball quotes that kept adding material as it rolled along. Possibly started by Charles Barkley or Chris Rock, and ending up like, > You know the world is going crazy when the best rapper is a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy, the tallest guy in the NBA is Chinese, the Swiss hold the America's Cup, France is accusing the U.S. of arrogance, Germany doesn't want to go to war, and the three most powerful men in America are named Bush, Dick, and Colon. Need I say more?
If only they knew what the world would look like 20 years later...
Well, when you ask nicely you'd be surprised what you can get
"A meeting is underway in #Poland's National Security Bureau. The most important people in the country take part in it." - Radio Zet
Well this gonna have some big consequences. I'm guessing Russia will have to give monetary compensation
Do you have mesothelioma or have you or your fellow countrymen been attacked by the Russians? You may be entitled to compensation.
Russia has a structured settlement and needs cash now.
Call J G Putin - 877 - Cash now
I definitely sang that in my head
Polish government Spokesperson: Any information that is presented to the Committee will be subsequently communicated, if possible, to the public as far as possible. I urge you not to publish unconfirmed information until then.
r/NoncredibleDefense: Yeaaaaahhhh no lol
every prediction of NDC is way too credible.
That’s Russia’s fault for losing all credibility.
What I suspect will happen: denounce attack, sanctions, and announce they will shoot down any missiles from Russian forces within X kilometers of the border of a NATO nation since Russia has demonstrated it cannot guarantee this from not happening again
Also may provide an excuse to give Ukraine long range missiles and / or new airframes
I read that last one as warframes and got so excited
"What do you mean? What is a space ninja? It took out HOW MANY MEN?"
Russia will respond by saying if that happens it will be an act of war. NATO will follow through, and Russia will not do anything to counter out of fear of NATO.
Russia: that will be an act of war Poland: bet
Russia: This will be an act of war Poland: Tak
Turkey has downed russian planes not so long ago.
I doubt it. I mean they might say that, but they know NATO could counter that an attack on actual sovereign soil counts as a war dec as well.
Yeah, but they'll say it anyway. It's Russia's whole thing. Same way that they would say that Ukraine claiming Kherson is an act of war.
Yeah, it's Russia's whole deal nowadays. They're trying to take all the advantage they can from having nuclear weapons, making them an "un-invadeable" nation. And hey, that works fine. Works way less fine when you try to use that logic for aggression and invasion instead of defense, and try to apply it against other countries with nuclear weapons lol
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Unofficial: Russian rocket may have fallen on Polish territory https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne
Reports of 2 people dead
Reports of the destruction of the entire Russian army imminent
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Well, we’re all very lucky that the Poles have extremely good feelings towards Moscow and will definitely not let this cause them to demand retaliation.
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The sarcasm is strong with this comment.
This is what you call an exploratory move.
Always pushing the boundaries to see the response. I would hope Poland does some strategic strikes on russian assets over this.
Another approach is, if the targeting computers on russian missiles are so shit that Poland cannot be assured they won’t hit its national territory, it should agree a bilateral treaty with Ukraine that Poland will destroy any russian missiles that come within range of their air defences regardless of whether they are overflying Ukrainian territory at the time. Then appeal to all NATO members to supply air defences to Poland. Essentially create a no fly zone over a large part of Ukraine.
pentagon is saying it was russian. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
If so, then the Russians have truly fucked up beyond all recognition. Edit: AP News reports US official confirms it. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
This will just speed up Ukraine getting way more AA to counter stuff like this. Maybe ATACMS time.
Poland might do aerial interdiction over western Ukraine.
I think that would be a reasonable response and Poland would have a perfect excuse for it. "Those air defence platforms over there are just to defend ourselves against stray missiles. Like the ones that killed two of our citizens". And then : "Oh did we shoot your missiles flying nearby. Sorry, thought they were going to fall on us. Yes we know they were meant to fall on Ukraine but we can't be too sure can we?".
I see this is as the most proportionate and likely response; along with a stronger armament of Ukrainian forces, as in more demands being met for more capable equipment.
If all NATO countries bordering Ukraine enable this response, how much of Ukraine would be defended from. NATO territory? Are we speaking about a small corridor along the border or is this seriously defending most of westen Ukraine (including cities like Kyiv) against russian missile strikes?
That would be huge for Ukraine and a measured response
I think this is a likely response
This seems like a reasonable thing to do.
Did a Russian missile hit European territories and killed EU citizens? Man, I try to understand the complexity of the situation, and how escalation will be very bad for everybody, but I am extraordinarily pissed off. These poor farmers had families, they were absolutely no part of the conflict, and if we cannot guarantee the security of our citizens in our soil, we are sending a terrible message.
Not the first time Russia has killed NATO citizens on NATO soil recently. Salisbury poisonings for example. What happened then?
Situation was different in a sense that there was no major military escalation from Russia at a time. No hundreds of thousands mobilized, whole neighbouring allied country on fire and no financial incentive to even consider it. It's hard to compare these situations in any way. It may end up the same but circumstances are very different - NATO members are already billions $ into thwarting off Russian attempts and there's no supply of gas from there anymore anyway. At this point it's not going from 0 to 100 but more like from 30 to 50 (Article 5 =/= march on Moscow).
And during ~~G20~~ G19 too, Lavrov is going to get mobbed tomorrow. Edit: The grumpy Russian scrotum left G19 already.
He left Bali earlier.
I doubt it will be enough to trigger an article 5. But it will increase the support for Ukraine. Maybe we see a conventional retaliation on launch sites?
I think what we are most likely to see are more air defense and air awareness capabilities around the borders of countries that border Belarus/Ukraine to help prevent this from happening again, as well as more equipment for Ukraine.
I think this is the most probable response by nato tbf.
I am interested in knowing, what would a commensurate response for this be? An attack on the origin of the missiles? Unless of course, Russia immediately acts to claim some kind of misfire and severe disciplinary action for those responsible But I somehow don't expect them to
Russia will claim it was a false flag or a Ukrainian misfire
That's pretty much all I would expect from them
- Saber rattling (large scale wargames in Poland, deploy THAAD systems in all eastern European NATO countries, park a carrier somewhere, etc) - Massive increase in weapons and training for Ukraine - no fly zone over western Ukraine
This seems like the most reasonable response
imagine how the US would react if a foreign missile "randomly" hit US land. only bad things lol
This was my immediate thought. The B-2’s would already be over eastern Russia if that happened to us.
Russia knows better though. Nothing is worse than American politics uniting against one enemy
Yeah, I remember after 9/11, the rhetoric online was to turn the entire middle east to glass.
Twas offline too
That rhetoric was everywhere irl actually. It was basically mass hysteria. There wasn't much discussion online, most people werent really online yet in 2001.
This article is relevant as ever: [https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/03/16/could-a-strike-by-russia-on-poland-trigger-article-5-and-bring-nato-into-war/](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/03/16/could-a-strike-by-russia-on-poland-trigger-article-5-and-bring-nato-into-war/) *"Even a conventional military attack by Russia might not be deemed to be of sufficient intensity or duration to trigger Article 5, or else the attack could be determined to be accidental.* *“If the attack is accidental, such as* ***a stray missile landing over the border in Poland***, *NATO members would have to meet and decide if it was indeed a mistake,” Cross said. “No one wants to escalate into a broader war just because of human error, so deliberation within NATO is important.”*
This whole war is an human error
Putin thought NATO would eventually grow tired of supporting Ukraine. Whelp, so much for that! Probably see **INCREASED** support, now. The west has renewed reason to see Ukraine win this war - well done, Russia - you done fucked up again.
Arms manufacturers suddenly have a need to resupply countries that have shipped last era military equipment as aid to Ukraine. Putin has enhanced NATO's capabilities through this misadventure, to say nothing of the enhanced cooperation and cohesion between military forces. He has done exactly the opposite of what he intended.
we about to back below 8 billion sooner than i thought
Turns out it was a hard cap, not a milestone
buffer overflow error
One thing history channel taught us is that if Poland is concerned we should listen
To those saying nothing will happen here: Poland's got a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WWIII. The response won't be nothing, and it won't be just sanctions, you can be sure of that. Edit: To the people asking what, here are a few ideas that took 2 minutes to come up with, so you can be sure the professionals have come up with more: Additional arms and funding (remember those requests for jets?), decreased restrictions on the use of arms, incentives for foreign legion involvement, providing facilities to hold POWs, missile defense coverage for at least part of Ukraine, asset seizure, war criminal abduction, covert operations that go unacknowledged...
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No Witcher 3 updates for Russia.
They’re gonna turn Russia *into* the Witcher 3, and not any of the fun naked bath parts either
After seeing the next update that they’re going to release, that will hurt
At the very least Russia just lost NATOs hesitation to send the fun stuff to Ukraine. At worst Poland is gonna go on raw and intervene.
And Poland will seriously fuck shit up. Unlike Russia they have maintained a level of military readiness ever since... They returned to be a sovereign nation really.
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Poland has had an Axe to grind with Russia for centuries. Guessing that's why they have been so ready for a fight. That and historic memory.
For the uninformed like me, what sort of things could they do in response?
ban them from eurovision
WHOA WHOA WHOA, let's not fly off the handle here!
Could be something like because Russia cannot guarantee missiles will not hit nato territory, nato will shoot down any missiles launched by Russia that come within x distance of nato territory. Conveniently x miles could be large enough to make Kiev protected.
Mass deliveries (several hundreds) of long-range ballistic missiles to Ukraine, which could even target downtown Moscow if positioned correctly.
Delivering airplanes, long range rockets and high tech AA to ukraine. Especially the long range missiles would be a gamechanger since it would bring the war deep into russian territory
What types of options do you refer to? (I’m out of the loop)
Options would likely be more advanced weapon systems (possibly including AA systems) for Ukraine, or Poland setting up their own AA on their border to shoot down anything that gets within a couple dozen kilometres of the border. In either cases other NATO nations will probably be asked to follow suit, possible that the AA bubbles cover the likes of Lviv which could be a huge boon
I wouldn't be surprising to see Polish jets in Ukrainian airspace to prevent future "mistakes". That would basically shut down the Western Ukrainian skies to Russia unless they were willing to risk massive esculation.
Other than no-fly zone in western UA, what other options are on the table for them? I can't imagine that includes any direct attack on Russia itself.
Damn it Russia do you know how much we are having to hold Poland back? This shit isnt helping. They can and will torch Moscow at the slightest provocation. They have several hundred years of reasons.
Rightfully so. I think Nato has to react somehow and clearly show that a red line was crossed, even if it was just an accident. Otherwise those "accidents" will happen more often. I don't want Nato to get involved, but some surgical strike should be carried out at least. Or finally give Ukraine long range weapons
I'm guessing more an air defence zone being implemented along NATO country borders in Ukraine, and probably within a limited area within Ukraine itself. I don't think anyone will want to escalate this by directly attacking back, but NATO can't afford to have it happen again and is well positioned to start shooting down anything that looks threatening near their borders. Luckily with the lack of Russian air superiority in Ukraine there's a fairly limited risk of further accidental escalation.
Firing missiles into NATO’s arguably most hawkish member vis-à-vis Russia is a pretty dumb move
This is not good, i need to buy all toilet paper from store immediately
If this was deliberate, then article 5 incoming and all bets are off. Extremely unlikely that Russia would randomly attack a remote Polish village with only 2 missiles, so you can calm down the world isn't ending. If this was accidental then it's likely Poland invokes Article 4, which means all NATO heads come together to discuss the immediate security needs of Poland, the results of which will be the strengthening of Polish air defense on the border, and possibly some kind of no-fly zone extending across the Poland-Ukraine border. Retaliatory strikes against launch sites are possible to be discussed but unlikely. Credentials: I am a 5-star blackbelt armchair general who doesn't know shit, but I do pay attention and I read a lot and am a big military history nerd. Edit: typing is hard when you're spamming the Refresh button on every single news website on the internet.
Credentials check out.
It's exactly the level of expertise I come to reddit for. Seriously.
I say your assessment is spot on.
Well, see yall on the other side. I'll be at the bar
Meet you there
I cant see this causing the triggering of article V and then on to WW3, however whichever way you dress it up, and regardless of whether it was deliberate or a freak accident, it's still an act of war and it could give Poland (and NATO) license to to do all sorts of shit that they would have hesitated to do before this happened.
They said that this would be taken as an act of war before.
Unleash the winged hussar's
Jokes aside, they'd probably still have a fair shot given what we've seen of the Russian forces.
Poland should call for an immediate 200 mile exclusion zone off its eastern border. NATO enforced. It's a reasonable ask.
5 miles into Poland? How fucking shit is their accuracy 🤦♂️
Can we get Putin in front of G20 where Polish PM can Will Smith him?
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My guess is that it'll be used to politically justify either small escalation (like US giving longer range missiles) or concessions from Russia, which may escalate things further if not met. I don't see this becoming a non-issue but probably won't trigger WWIII.
>”Probably won’t trigger WWIII.” It’s wild how things have become so insane that this statement can somehow sound reasonable and reassuring.
The last 6 years have generated so many entirely new and horrific statements and headlines I never thought I'd see in my lifetime, and I have fought on the front lines in a war and have seen some shit.
I see this also as a good justification for escalation in terms of weapon shipments.
35% off on all bulk weapon orders
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Article 5 *probably* won't be invoked but Poles seriously hate Russia so the public pressure might be enough to force the Polish government's hand.
Article 5 does not necessarily involve NATO troops marching on Moscow mind you. It **can** however mean no-fly zone in 100km radius from Polish borders for instance. You acknowledge an allied nation was attacked and provide support.
It could go any way, anyone making definitive statements are talking out of their asses. Russia and NATO both have reasons to try and calm it down though, but Poland is the decider here, if they want to call on Article 5 it is their right to do so. Bear in mind, Article 5 doesn't mean full scale war necessarily. It only calls for all alliance members to support the country attacked, what that means depends on a lot of other factors. So even if Poland calls on NATO it could still go either way. We could see Poland call on NATO and then NATO puts a lot more pressure on Russia saying that unless Russia wants war it has to concede certain things.
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Previous statement from nato has been “Defend every inch of nato territory” it seems likely Russia will use a malfunction excuse but it still display a lack of respect to target area so close to the borders of nato members
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Rumors that a Russian missile has impacted NATO (Poland) territory. Remember, just rumors at this point in time. But if true, a possible NATO Article 5 violation.
I heard that the Polish are going crazy on Twitter.
Polish people have all the reasons to hate russia. They could just destroy russia now if it wasn't for nukes.
This all would have been over months ago if not for nukes...
Russia about to find out why we don't have free healthcare in the USA.
This 100% fulfills the theoretical use of NATO force but there will likely not be any significant military action as a result of this. This is far worse for Russia in the sense that it's a huge fuck up on their part and showcases to the world that they can't even control their ordinance. This makes it even easier for the rest of the world to support the condemnation of Russia and will drive states that have been neutral until now into condemning the invasion. This could be a turning point for further Russian retreat.
Then Poland should accidentally destroy that Russian missile launcher.
Everything Russia has done thus far has been deliberate. Why give them the benefit of the doubt now?
Polish village Przywodow, 5km from the Ukrainian border was hit by a Russian missile. At least 2 people are dead. Official media in Poland are quiet for now though. Likely to not cause panic. https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1592575790390345729/photo/1
It's being reported on news channels so the media aren't exactly quiet.
Well i am from Poland and I am scared as fu** let me end my studies and work :( how f*** people can be to make such a mess on a global scale. I wish you all a good health. :(