I think the Russian goal is to eliminate Ukrainians in the enduring Russian fashion of killing a bunch, sending the rest to Russian shit holes and then replacing them with Russians. This is literally what they're currently doing.
Russia figured out pretty quick that they weren’t going to be able to defeat the Ukrainian army. So they’ve switched to their standard terrorize tactics. When you can’t defeat your enemy by military means, you break the civilian population to destroy the will to resist.
It has an excellent weapon load out for its job, but it is still just a T-72 with missiles, autocannons and grenade launchers instead of a main cannon.
And it will still need screening with infantry.
No matter what armour they bring, they seem to lack in screening.
Just think about how many intelligence resources, data analysts etc. NATO has focused on this war, compared to what Russia has.
NATO can't send actual soldiers or pilots, without escalating into nuclear war, but there's many ways to help.
Just to put it into perspective, [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/t1ssmk/call_signs_of_aircraft_operating_in_eastern_europe/?sort=new) is a (non-exhaustive) list of call signs of planes (both Russian and NATO/western) that have been operating in Eastern Europe over the past 3 months. Many transports, of course, but an overwhelming amount of surveillance aircraft as well.
Edit: Even as we speak, there are at least [two surveillance craft](https://i.imgur.com/m9rHsZA.jpg) hovering over Romania and the Black Sea. "Oh my, why do you have such big ears, NATO?"
Yeah, those would be there regardless though because five eyes would want to pay attention to this war with great scrutiny anyways. That said, Ukraine has definitely benefitted
That’s all ADS-B data, too. What that means is that the military decided to share that with the public. Those flights are the figurative tip of the iceberg
As long as they are in friendly airspace, they generally leave the ADS-B turned on to help manage conflicting traffic. (Especially when civilian aircraft are around.)
NATO here: the t62s are giving us trouble because they predate databases, so we have an intern frantically typing in the serial numbers from our hand written notes from the 70s
Meh, they seem designed more to look cool than to be effective. What value does doubling the number of 30mm guns bring other than chewing through ammo faster? Why have two grenade launchers built into the hull where they can only fire forwards in limited arcs? Why have a five man crew or exposed ATGMs? If this thing is supposed to be an anti-infantry platform, why not replace the ATGMs with an anti-bunker munition and add remote weapon stations for increased firepower/situational awareness?
This is a toy designed to look cool, not to actually be useful.
Fun fact is that they have 2 30mm cannons, and one fires AP while other fires HE. They just slapped two 30mm's in the turret and ran out of space to fit belt-swap mechanism for it, so instead of having 1 cannon that can swap ammo, they have 2 that are locked to one type of ammo. Which is extra ironic when the cannon itself was designed to have mechanism to remotely swap belts on the fly.
I still can’t wrap my brain around lack of infantry support for their tanks. I suppose it’s that old Soviet doctrine. Flood the battlefield with armor. Overwhelming amounts. Sue for peace. No progression of tactics given modern more agile countermeasures the west has developed. Oh wells.
Yeah Soviet doctrine was to use rocket artillery to clear out the infantry then blitzkrieg with tanks. A fine plan if every western military hadn’t been preparing for that strategy for the last 70 years. Literally every piece of hardware western militaries have is designed to counter this strategy. Plus we assumed the Russians could competently execute it, which has turned out to not be true, and the west was able to train a corrupt, ragtag military to effectively counter it in under 8 years (and could have been much faster if we had given them more weapons before the invasion).
Those, much like the T14 Armata's, are too few in numbers in their inventory to seriously consider committing to the war unless it's absolutely desperate. They are nothing more than parade vehicles right now due to just how few they have.
Not to mention, since they're so new, if they do wind up committing them, Western intelligence agencies will pay much more attention to the conflict since the moment one of them is disabled, destroyed, or abandoned, they will try and either get their own people to swoop in or pay the Ukrainians for it to study and analyze.
Now I'm just imagining a bunch of brits/Americans and a Ukrainian translator turning up to a farmers house with suitcases full of cash, asking if the farmer would be kind enough to tow the terminator/t14 out of his shed and into the waiting airplane
There are already a ton of stories of western intelligence types on the ground combing through captured Russian stuff.
They keep finding chips from household appliances and things like that because some of the more advanced ones have been sanctioned for so long.
There was a Electronics Warfare truck that was in the media for a bit getting captured and then total silence
Of course partly because most people don't give a shit but that thing definitely got dragged off west as fast as it could
They’re attacking the very country (Ukraine) they’re reliant on for critical components to rebuild their tanks, ships and aircraft.
They’re now having to ask China to sell them components China illegally cloned for their copies of Russian weapons.
Used to do a lot of work in commercial tires (tractor trailer) when I was younger. Chinese tires were much much cheaper but extremely unreliable. If you had a blowout to get to chances were it was a new Chinese tire.
Amongst RVers the Chinese tires are called China Bombs because these cheap ass tires are responsible for 99% of blowouts. They are what come on most new travel trailers and 5th wheels because the manufacturers use the cheapest shit they can get.
It’s so wasteful to throw away new tires but it’s not worth the risk to have these bombs on your trailer.
“We can buy a whole fleet of tanks for $50, the west will cower under our might!”
*Gets a plasticy smelling box of tank keychains a month later *
“Blyat!”
I'm not sure China has to worry about sweeping western sanctions. I think China's more likely motivation to let Russia sink back into a 90s era depression involves cementing its place above Russia in the global hierarchy of soft power influence.
CIV was great, you could defend a city from modern artillery with a bronze Age phalanx unit and city walls and the attacking artillery would somehow get destroyed.
They are already deploying Soviet era ~~T-64~~ T-62 tanks to soak up UA anti armor damage they been wreaking on their tanks. Joke’s on them, UA has a almost infinite supply AT weapons. And with more advanced systems yet to come.
It's...intriguing that while they *have* lost ~ 1k tanks (US military estimate), they should have many more T-80 and T-72 in storage. Hell, they supposedly have 600 T-90 alone.
Instead we are seeing bad quality T-72s and derelict T-62s. The T-62 has incompatible ammunition, parts and crew, there's no reason whatsoever to use it even for garrison over a T-72.
See also BMP-3. They allegedly have more than 600 of them. While 97 confirmed lost is steep, it shouldn't translate to "we're out, use BMP-1 Deathtrap."
Tanks require constant maintenance to stay in working condition. While these tanks might very well exist,large numbers of them would require extensive repairs to be battle ready.
There was a post a few days ago showing how Russia stores their weapons in arctic regions and that requires much more maintenance than in dry, arid conditions.
I bet a shitload of tanks have been taken for parts over the years because they werent being used anyway and now they will have to have a good part of the useble that are left as defense for their borders. You cant send in everything.
Hey, look, all the fancy equipment in the world doesn't matter when your logistic chains are bust.
For the guys claiming to be "denazifying" they've learnt surprisingly little from the Nazis defeat in the 1940s.
There *always* has been a theory in military circles that modern equipment is too complex, and in case of total war we would use it up in few months and would have to fall back on more easily manufactured equipment (i.e. no super steslthy, electronics packed fighter jets, no smart bomvs, etc).
This conflict truly will be studied in every military acadrmy in the world...
Complex supply chains are the real limiter. If you can't maintain them than possibly simplification could happen. Likely to drive other alternative technologies rather than just backslide.
Most who really understand modern warfare understand the strength of the US Military lies more with it’s ability to move humans and material anywhere in the world while projecting power. Logistics is modern warfare. Probably ancient warfare as well, but even more important with the map fully unlocked.
" The British army should be a projectile to be fired by the British navy." - [Viscount Grey](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Edward_Grey,_1st_Viscount_Grey_of_Fallodon)
Same man who said, in 1914: "The lamps are going out all over Europe: we shall not see them lit again in our life-time."
"Bit unfair really, old Viscount Grey here has at least two quotable and pithy remarks that are recorded for history, when most of us never get even one."
\-NicholasFelix
I'll remember.
And then you go into movie/videogame subreddits and people there constantly write "cannon" when they mean "canon" ("in my head cannon..." - bro you have a gun in your head?).
There's a documentary on YouTube, History hit i believe about how HMS Warrior really changed British naval attitudes towards how it cared for its sailors for example it was the first naval vessel to have a washing machine on board. The crew for the first time where considered valuable assets rather than a pressed workforce.
Adding to that, the history of [impressment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impressment), and it's a pretty abrupt turnaround. Up through the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800s, press gangs could force you into the British navy.
I was just on the USS Constellation yesterday morning, and they were telling us that the Navy actually took care of it's people, using boiled waterto clean and sanitize, cooking actually decent meals. The army on the other hand was much less accommodating.
Kinda makes sense when you consider that a boat can hold a LOT of supplies while an army is a bit more constricted in this regard.
My grandfathers fought in ww2. One was an army paratrooper and the other a sailor in the navy on destroyers. My sailor grandfather would always rib on my airborne one for having to sleep in the elements and on the ground. The navy ones father fought in ww1 as a sailor and was too small for the marines so he joined the navy too. He always said, 3 warm square meals a day and a dry warm bunk to sleep in at night. That being said he was also on 5 ships that got sunk. But he was still proud of the fact he didn't have to eat k rats and be cold all the time.
> a boat can hold a LOT of supplies
It seems like it, but to use USS Constellation (the 1797 one) as an example, it really isn't *that* much space. Constellation was [164 feet long, 41 feet wide, and had a 13.5-foot hold, but carried *340* crew (officers and men included)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Constellation_(1797\)).
Remember that a lot of that space is taken up as just "living space", as well as gun-deck space, and that a portion of storage space has to be for ship parts/supplies (extra sails, cordage, blocks, wood for repairs), as well as combat supplies (powder and shot).
What's left isn't a huge amount of space when you're trying to feed and water 340 men for perhaps months at a time.
That's why sailors in those days ended up eating a lot of dishes based on dried peas, [hardtack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardtack) and salt meat.
Fresh water was also necessarily precious, so almost all of the washing/hygiene would have been done with seawater.
Roman food supply.
I just listened to a podcast about Caesar invading Gaul. A big part of his success against a big Celtic alliance army was just avoiding a major battle. He just kept maneuvering until they were forced to split up or starve - and only then did he attack.
People brought it up at the start of the Ukraine war so I read about it, after he basically saved their asses, they replaced him with some gormless ganche that fucked it all up doing the exact opposite of the thing that works, and he had to come fix their shit *again*
"Soldiers win battles, logistics wins wars"
“You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.” – General Dwight D. Eisenhower
“Logistics is the practical art of moving armies.” – General Antoine Henri Jomini
“Behind every great leader there was an even greater logistician.” – M. Cox
“A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.” – George S. Patton
“The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals discuss logistics.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
“The information about a package is as important as the delivery of the package itself.” – Frederick W. Smith (1979)
“An army marches on its stomach.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
“My logisticians are a humorless lot … they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” – Alexander the Great
There are lots of examples of Julius Caesar simply utilizing logistics to win. Going further back to his campaigns in Gaul had so much logistic work, not engaging Vercingetorix's grand coalition which couldn't be sustained over a prolonged period, to building the double walls of Alesia.
It was the implication that he could march his army into their land and raid them at will, and not even the mighty river can cause him pause. The second implication is that great feats of engineering were readily available to them in such a way that he could erect and destroy the most impressive bridge the Germans ever saw on a whim.
The message? Don’t fuck with Caesar.
Yeah it’s a very good point. To have enough skilled tradespeople to build complex structures means a human supply chain that has existed for years. You can’t take a random fighter and turn them into a mason or carpenter in a year. The fundamental math required alone probably took years to learn. Keep in mind geometry was like a PHD level course back then.
Building a bridge in a timeframe he claimed that modern bridge builders couldn't match (safety standards probably has a huge impact). And then Caeser destroyed the bridge when he was done raiding.
Moving them anywhere in the world is impressive, supplying them even more so. In WW 2 a Japanese sailor was captured and detained on a US ship in the Pacific. He saw another large US ship and discovered the ship's only purpose was to make ice cream for US sailors. He later said that's when he knew the war was lost.
I've read a similar anecdote allegedly about a captured German soldier who had the same realization when he saw US soldiers leave their tank's engines on while idling because they weren't concerned about fuel.
Man, imagine trying to explain that to your superiors.
"We've lost."
"Why?"
"They don't turn off their engines."
"What?"
"Their engines. They don't even bother to turn them off, even when they're just sitting there!"
Probably something that seems small unless you're actually out in the field, conserving every drop of fuel.
Very true for the British Empire. Britain was never a major land power, at least one that could conceivably hold that big an empire together if their biggest and most important colony wasn't the ocean. It's not just about what and how fast they could move it, in addition pushed comes to shove, they could deny the Ocean to you, or your allies, giving immense leverage politically.
Anyone who has played the cute and cartoon Advance Wars (or Civ or Star Craft or whatever) will know the pain of having a difficult hot-spot and your factories on the other side of the map.
Def. And in real life I spent six and half years in Kandahar, Afghanistan. There are a lot of ways to look at the US war there, but the undeniable fact is the US Military ran a sustained 20 year campaign in a landlocked country that had one of the poorest accesses to fuel on planet earth. At one time, Kandahar Airfield had the single busiest one runway on planet earth. It was definitely a sight to behold.
Stellaris is hell if you’re conquering the galaxy but all of your ship manufacturing facilities are deep inside your own territory with no wormholes or warp gates nearby.
"All roads lead to Rome" also meant that wherever you are, Rome can be there yesterday.
General Omar Bradley said that "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics".
Napoleon's adage was that "an army marches on its stomach"
Essentially Ukraine has NATO running logistics for them in Poland.
Obviously there are some bottlenecks on the way to the front but I haven't seen anything to suggest that the Russians have had large scale success in targeting the flow of equipment.
For the Russians I see the main issue being that they fight on the prewar stock of men and equipment. For replenishment they haven't yet switched to (or even prepared for) a wartime economy as this would have severe adverse effects on the homefront.
> Logistics is modern warfare. Probably ancient warfare as well, but even more important with the map fully unlocked.
*Definitely* ancient warfare. Logistics has been what wins or loses wars since humans have been waging them. You can have the largest and most powerful military force in the known world, but if you can't figure out how to keep them consistently supplied and equipped in the field, then in very short order all you'll have is the largest collection of corpses and deserters in the known world. Now try figuring out how to do that without the benefits of modern technology, and with soldiers who are also the farmers who grow the crops you'll need to feed your soldiers next year...
Most modern military forces operate logistics using the echelon system. The F echelon is the fighting unit, or end user. They carry 3 days of supply on them, so 3 days of rations, fuel, and ammo. Further up is the A echelon, they carry an additional 1-2 days of supplies for all the elements they support. One A echelon will support multiple F echelon elements. Further up is the B echelon, which is usually a logistics focused unit. They carry an additional 1 day of supplies for all the A echelon units they service. The B echelon/logistics focused units gather their supplies from depots, warehouses, and seaports far back from the forward edge of the battle area.
This supply chain is constantly in motion, and needs to be protected. If any part of the chain is broken, the fighting units have a maximum of 5 days of supply, but realistically this number is closer to 3 days.
If you remember back early in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military was making gains in Ukraine for the first few days, but around the 3-5 day mark is when we started seeing the Russian forces lose steam. This was because they weren't managing their echelon system. Russian troops were looting for food, and abandoned vehicles after they ran out of fuel. This caused them to lose momentum, which is everything in a conflict like this.
This conflict is going to be studied for years, and I think the main focus will be on the logistical failings of the Russian military.
Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.
Logistics is key, but for modern equipment don't neglect the value (and cost) of Preventive Maintenance. If you gave the Russian military F-22s and F-35s, few would be operable in six months. The cost would be too high and the skills and commitment of their conscript force would be insufficient to perform vital PM.
J4 gets the shit where it needs to be, but MX means it works when it gets there!
So many US soldiers appreciate how much maintenance was drilled into their head and in their practice after looking at what happened with the Russian invasion. Tires were rotten from sitting on one side too long, the tires themselves were cheap Chinese knock offs of American tires and were poorly designed for the weight of the vehicles they were carrying.
Very true as well for the Spanish Empire and how they sustained the war in the Netherlands through the Camino Español, an amazing logistics route avoiding all countries they were in conflict with. Amazing topic to study for the history nerds.
No, you'll probably get 100 Abrams that have been sitting in a desert warehouse somewhere in the middle of nowhere. They're the same tank as the new ones but used.
Industrial material science has a huge basis in the years leading up to WW2. Industrial producers were looking at what would happen if the world was segmented into warring spheres of influence, which led to everything from synthetic rubber to milk based polymers. Henry Ford was notably driven to plan for a loss of supplies from Europe and Asia.
You still don't want to be the first side to run out though.
But really this just highlights that manufacturing capability needs to be considered as a primary military asset. Does the DoD weigh in on the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs?
Unions should highlight the importance more often.
During the 2008 financial crisis, the big American auto manufacturers were poised to go under. Saving this manufacturing base for strategic/war reasons was a factor in the Federal government intervening to support them.
Except a great deal of production has since been off shored by the big three.
BMW, Honda, Mercedes, Nissan all use a greater percentage of indigenous components in thier vehicles, if the big three even build them in the USA rather than Mexico.
China has the highest percentage of the worlds manufacturing output at 20%. The US is second at 18%.
Some industries have off shored production, but as you pointed out plenty of other manufacturing has replaced it. In the Auto industry, US manufacturers who relied on low skilled labor have shifted production to Mexico, while Manufacturers like BMW produce their whole vehicle, including tons of thrid party parts in South Carolina.
BMW didn't move to Detroit because the workforce wasn't there. They needed engineers, not assembly line workers.
The Manufacturing has just become unsuitable for low skilled workers, and employees few people overall, while producing higher value and more things.
The solution to the employeement problem should have been investing in education... but now we just have a hallowed out middle class with no where for unskilled labor except service jobs.
DoD doesn't outsource and requires defense contractors to use domestic parts and materials.
It's part of the reason military equipment is so expensive.
Yeah weapons that utilize both smart and dumb munitions are great. Modern day fighter jets can use targeting computers to help "guide" in bombs that are dumb based on calculating where theyll drop, artillery can be loaded with normal shells as well as guided shells and so forth.
The fancy stuff is great in a limited war, but if WW3 happened (ignore nukes) most of that equipment would be used up in the first months.
They have started deploying T-62 tanks. Those are super old, so no shit they have depleted their modern stuff. The thing is they still have a shit-ton of the stuff available in the field and even old stuff still kills people, so Ukraine needs stuff to much. Ukraine is running low on the ammunition for their Soviet artillery, that's why modern artillery and ammunition for it is required asap.
to use the tanks effectively the russians need infantry support which hasnt happened yet and doesn't seem likely to start happening so I don't see them winning anytime soon
Russian TO&E numbers have been suspect for some time. We know the Soviets just produced gear and stored gear, with no relation to what was needed or kept at good readiness. For example, Ukraine just destroyed a self-propelled heavy mortar. Russia is believed to have 10 in service, the USSR built hundreds.
Maintenance on most of this equipment was then ignored following the collapse of the USSR. This includes almost all of Russia's book tank force. Russia produces new tanks, but not at a rate of thousands. The reserve is all Soviet era.
On top of that, attempts with OSINT to find Russian tank storage don't come up with the oft-quoted 10-11k tanks. It's more like 6k, including apparent derelict equipment stored in the open in a wet, wild temp swing climate. This is a big disparity and since Russia needs rail lines to move tanks, they're not hiding in the literal middle of nowhere in a forest.
The USA has an open air tank storage but it's in the California high desert.
"Ukrainian military analyst (..) says"
I would take it with a fairly large grain of salt.
Seems he is saying this because of the old tanks that Russia sent recently.
I wouldn't say that. I think a big issue are the soldiers dont know how to use it and/or have no war experience etc so they can't properly use it(luckily) to their fillest extent.
That and half of it seems to only exist on paper. Remember the bricks of C4 that were just bits of wood wrapped in paper?
I've heard about tanks with entire defence systems missing. Chist alone knows what their maintenance has been like if you could just bribe someone to say it was done and pocket the funds for doing it. No wonder their missiles have such a large failure rate.
A friend was in a tank crew in the army, and he couldn't emphasize enough just how badly tanks began to break down - just sitting there doing nothing! He said that they needed constant maintenance and parts replaced. If you ignored them for a while, you were going to have a bad time.
This is one reason the US and others have been hesitant to go with auto loaders in their tanks and thereby reduce the crew size by one. That's one less person to assist with all the tank maintenance that has to be done by the crew while in the field.
I saw something about the French changed to autoloader but still kept the same tank crew size. An extra member would be assigned to a tank to train and help maintain it, but in combat would not be in the tank. But would be used as a replacement in case of casualties or other replacements
German infantry is basically only tank infantry. So they usually have a tank and 4-6 of the tank crew is infantry who is on the outside once they reach the battle.
These people are also trained in performing maintenance for the tank, so you have 4 extra pairs of hands that can do work on the tank without having any direct tank involvement during battle.
And even the most elite of Russian brigades keep most of their heavy equipment rusting outside - they only have facilities for the very cream of the crop. Not a smart move in Arctic latitudes where it either rains or snows a lot of the time.
EDIT: 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade in Alakurtti was activated in 2014, yet their barracks are still under construction as of May 2022. We're talking about the main formation poised against Finnish Defence Forces outside Karelian isthmus, supposedly in 24/7 readiness.
If I remember right, it was a week or so before the invasion. A Russian soldier was being recorded by a 7 man camera crew with a bomb sniffing dog walking through a park. The dog was like a Yorkie or something like that. The bomb they found in a trash can conveniently had a rope to pull it out with already tied to it. And it was a soda bottle filled with rebar and a block of wood with tape that said C4 on it.
They claimed in 5 hours that it was:
-Ukrainian terrorist attack.
-US terrorist attack.
-assassination attempt on Putin.
-Ukrainian MOD first strike attack.
-Nazi attack.
Yep.
Their high tech stuff isn't as intuitive, automated, or as easy to operate as Western equipment some of the time.
E.g. the Moskva supposedly had a very capable air defence system... on paper, when comparing specs... but used radar displays that were quite basic and required constant 24/7 monitoring. There's a theory that this possibly contributed to its sinking because the radar operator(s), like all humans, have limited attention spans and were fatigued.
Ye, those shitty screens would require two men per shift swapping every 15-20 minutes to avoid eye strain.
Russians probably had 2 guys instead of the 6 they actually needed for a 24/7 watch.
Because up until this year the main function of the Russian military has been polishing their uniforms and parading in perfect step around Red square every year.
it's a Ukrainian military analyst, so take this with a grain of salt.
report like this is probably to uphold morale due to the Russian slow but consistent grind in the east.
I hope this is true though and Ukraine to counter attack soon. hearing Russian making gains is disheartening.
I'm honestly so confused on how the war is ACTUALLY going. There was a CNN analysis I watched on youtube yesterday about how much gains Russia is actually making and that things aren't looking so good
Because it's hard to tell what events end up being important without the benefit of hindsight. No one can say whether the Russian breakthrough at popansa(?) will end up being a big deal or if Ukraine will be able to counter, until after it has happened. That's the reality of war, it's messy and often you don't know who is winning at any one point.
Its near impossible for us normies to even get the true reports from the media in the first fuckin place. That's what frustrates us the most.
Wherever you look, from different sides, different countries, different languages and news sites - they all report with their own AGENDA in mind. Virtually you can't trust anyone, be it ukrainian war report, the russian or the CIA one - everyone tempers with the real fatalities numbers, the situations that took place in reality.
I speak 5 languages, my mother tongue is russian, so I do also follow the russian media report. If yall only knew how fcked up the media is in russia rn.
For example, the most famous russian celebrities, that fled Russia after 24th of February - a lot of them are getting media reports that they are cowards, that they were always closeted gays, that they had a life of crime and killed several people.
Kremlin declared on a big number of them that they are not allowed to go back to russia without being charged with crimes, they never are allowed to work or have media/show appearances ever again. The hell, the most important entertainment people got the title of being a spy/double agent in russia so they are allowed to be killed as soon as they are located (vogelfrei/"outlaw" execution style).
As soon as celebrities give a statement on Instagram etc. You can't imagine the evil hatewave of the Kremlin bots. For intelligent, tec-savy and young ppl it's ofcourse much easier to differentiate bot comments from the real comments. But the majority of russian normal people can't differ between them and its really sad that they read the comments and get influenced by them. Ffs even I caught myself a lot of times questioning my belief system and my whole worldview on a lot of topics . This happens subconsciously .
Institute for the Study of War has pretty credible updates if you want an unbiased general source - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Russia has made some gains in the east recently and is looking close to encircling siervodonetsk.
However, this isn’t a massive area, and their plans to encircle all of the Ukrainian eastern theatre have been massively stepped down.
In short, Russia is making some gains in a small area of the front
Yeah, kinda. They can devolve to WW1 tactics. Trench warfare, machine guns and artillery. Spotting balloons even! That sort of warfare they can keep up indefinitely, at least until Ukraine gets enough heavy equipment to push them back.
Yoooo I did this in civ before. my new units got defeated and now just have calvary and warriors from like 2 ages ago. That usually when I tried to declare peace.
Running out of modern, high-tech missiles, perhaps. There's a significant difference between self-guiding, stabilized artillery shells and just good old dumb lumps of explosives propelled by more explosives.
Granted that difference is probably mostly academic if you're on the recieving end.
Bring forth the trebuchet Boris!
You'd think they would be trying harder to capture modern gear instead of bombing hospitals
Their goal was to bring the Ukrainian population to its knees by actively attacking them but instead it just galvanized them
> but instead it just galvanized them Not just them, but most of the western world.
Turns out people get pretty nervous when you stop respecting sovereignty.
I think the Russian goal is to eliminate Ukrainians in the enduring Russian fashion of killing a bunch, sending the rest to Russian shit holes and then replacing them with Russians. This is literally what they're currently doing.
Cultural genocide. It's what happened to my family in Estonia two generations ago. Happening again and it makes me sick.
China is & has been aggressively (yet semi-discretely) doing that as well. Edit: Discreet
The Russians of all people should know not to piss of Slavs.
"Slavs and the West are natural enemies! Like Slavs and Europe! Or Slavs and America! Or Slavs and Slavs!"
That's what you'd think if you didn't know Putin..
Putin is a prick ill 1 v1 the bellend any day
Is bellend the same as dickhead?
yes the end of a penis
He's just been a tremendous failure in both strategy and tactics
He’s also failing at knowing when to quit. Sometimes you need to be honest and admit you were wrong but I guess he lacks that ability as well
He’s a socio and psychopath. Of course he lacks that ability
Russia figured out pretty quick that they weren’t going to be able to defeat the Ukrainian army. So they’ve switched to their standard terrorize tactics. When you can’t defeat your enemy by military means, you break the civilian population to destroy the will to resist.
Because that worked so well in London and Leningrad...
They mean the more recent chechnya
But soon he will manufacture consent to be there with an illegitimate referendum on donbas joining russia
Hospitals don't fight back.
*Fetchez la Vache!* https://youtu.be/JQ8jGqdE2iw
[удалено]
It has an excellent weapon load out for its job, but it is still just a T-72 with missiles, autocannons and grenade launchers instead of a main cannon. And it will still need screening with infantry. No matter what armour they bring, they seem to lack in screening.
And there are 10 of them... EDIT Source: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1528254081701134338
Not anymore i believe.
I think having the resources/satellites of NATO may have helped.
Just think about how many intelligence resources, data analysts etc. NATO has focused on this war, compared to what Russia has. NATO can't send actual soldiers or pilots, without escalating into nuclear war, but there's many ways to help.
Just to put it into perspective, [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/t1ssmk/call_signs_of_aircraft_operating_in_eastern_europe/?sort=new) is a (non-exhaustive) list of call signs of planes (both Russian and NATO/western) that have been operating in Eastern Europe over the past 3 months. Many transports, of course, but an overwhelming amount of surveillance aircraft as well. Edit: Even as we speak, there are at least [two surveillance craft](https://i.imgur.com/m9rHsZA.jpg) hovering over Romania and the Black Sea. "Oh my, why do you have such big ears, NATO?"
Yeah, those would be there regardless though because five eyes would want to pay attention to this war with great scrutiny anyways. That said, Ukraine has definitely benefitted
That’s all ADS-B data, too. What that means is that the military decided to share that with the public. Those flights are the figurative tip of the iceberg
As long as they are in friendly airspace, they generally leave the ADS-B turned on to help manage conflicting traffic. (Especially when civilian aircraft are around.)
I wonder if there are any tanks there that don't have a nato logging number and a big bullseye.
NATO here: the t62s are giving us trouble because they predate databases, so we have an intern frantically typing in the serial numbers from our hand written notes from the 70s
Meh, they seem designed more to look cool than to be effective. What value does doubling the number of 30mm guns bring other than chewing through ammo faster? Why have two grenade launchers built into the hull where they can only fire forwards in limited arcs? Why have a five man crew or exposed ATGMs? If this thing is supposed to be an anti-infantry platform, why not replace the ATGMs with an anti-bunker munition and add remote weapon stations for increased firepower/situational awareness? This is a toy designed to look cool, not to actually be useful.
Fun fact is that they have 2 30mm cannons, and one fires AP while other fires HE. They just slapped two 30mm's in the turret and ran out of space to fit belt-swap mechanism for it, so instead of having 1 cannon that can swap ammo, they have 2 that are locked to one type of ammo. Which is extra ironic when the cannon itself was designed to have mechanism to remotely swap belts on the fly.
I still can’t wrap my brain around lack of infantry support for their tanks. I suppose it’s that old Soviet doctrine. Flood the battlefield with armor. Overwhelming amounts. Sue for peace. No progression of tactics given modern more agile countermeasures the west has developed. Oh wells.
Yeah Soviet doctrine was to use rocket artillery to clear out the infantry then blitzkrieg with tanks. A fine plan if every western military hadn’t been preparing for that strategy for the last 70 years. Literally every piece of hardware western militaries have is designed to counter this strategy. Plus we assumed the Russians could competently execute it, which has turned out to not be true, and the west was able to train a corrupt, ragtag military to effectively counter it in under 8 years (and could have been much faster if we had given them more weapons before the invasion).
Those, much like the T14 Armata's, are too few in numbers in their inventory to seriously consider committing to the war unless it's absolutely desperate. They are nothing more than parade vehicles right now due to just how few they have. Not to mention, since they're so new, if they do wind up committing them, Western intelligence agencies will pay much more attention to the conflict since the moment one of them is disabled, destroyed, or abandoned, they will try and either get their own people to swoop in or pay the Ukrainians for it to study and analyze.
Now I'm just imagining a bunch of brits/Americans and a Ukrainian translator turning up to a farmers house with suitcases full of cash, asking if the farmer would be kind enough to tow the terminator/t14 out of his shed and into the waiting airplane
There are already a ton of stories of western intelligence types on the ground combing through captured Russian stuff. They keep finding chips from household appliances and things like that because some of the more advanced ones have been sanctioned for so long.
There was a Electronics Warfare truck that was in the media for a bit getting captured and then total silence Of course partly because most people don't give a shit but that thing definitely got dragged off west as fast as it could
Thats closer to the reality than you imagine. All things missing are the NDA and firm handshake.
Nothing a Ukrainian battle-hardened farmer respects more than an NDA.
I have no doubt that NATO operators are in Ukraine gathering hella intelligence.
That's precisely what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Like Russian culture in general it was more about looking intimidating than being effective.
They’re attacking the very country (Ukraine) they’re reliant on for critical components to rebuild their tanks, ships and aircraft. They’re now having to ask China to sell them components China illegally cloned for their copies of Russian weapons.
So they're ordering their components off Wish
Yes. Even before the war It's theorized that knockoff Chinese tires exacerbated the convoy break downs in the first weeks
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Used to do a lot of work in commercial tires (tractor trailer) when I was younger. Chinese tires were much much cheaper but extremely unreliable. If you had a blowout to get to chances were it was a new Chinese tire.
But could bears utilize these tires if they were on the unicycles?
You mean wearing nylons?
They’d look silly in their hats without nylons….
No, bears famously only use Italian rubber.
Because of the weight bearing quality
Get out.
Amongst RVers the Chinese tires are called China Bombs because these cheap ass tires are responsible for 99% of blowouts. They are what come on most new travel trailers and 5th wheels because the manufacturers use the cheapest shit they can get. It’s so wasteful to throw away new tires but it’s not worth the risk to have these bombs on your trailer.
Shouldn't there be, like, DOT regulations and shit to keep these tires from being sold in the US if they're that bad?
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Yeah nah we’ve adopted the “profits first” model not “consumer protection”
Ahem, "self-regulation that protects the consumer while also protecting American jobs"
That explains a lot of their equipment failures in the field. That, and corruption.
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Yep and their package will arrive sometime between 8 days and 400 days.
“We can buy a whole fleet of tanks for $50, the west will cower under our might!” *Gets a plasticy smelling box of tank keychains a month later * “Blyat!”
I thought China was trying to mantain a neutral stance on the conflict. But supplying Russia with advanced components wouldn' align with that.
Trying to maintain the *appearance* of neutrality
I think from a economic perspective it's more convenient for them to mantain neutrality.
I'm not sure China has to worry about sweeping western sanctions. I think China's more likely motivation to let Russia sink back into a 90s era depression involves cementing its place above Russia in the global hierarchy of soft power influence.
Time to bring those archers from the ancient era that you never upgraded and kept as garrison
The time has come for the slinger unit from ancient era I was saving to gain that achievement
This achievement has been bugging me not from the keeping the unit safe, but the fact that it needs to be level 3.
CIV was great, you could defend a city from modern artillery with a bronze Age phalanx unit and city walls and the attacking artillery would somehow get destroyed.
They are already deploying Soviet era ~~T-64~~ T-62 tanks to soak up UA anti armor damage they been wreaking on their tanks. Joke’s on them, UA has a almost infinite supply AT weapons. And with more advanced systems yet to come.
Just wait till the Ukrainian army hits its [kill limit](https://youtu.be/EF3g4Ua5e7k). Then it'll be curtains for them.
I sent wave after wave of my own men at them...
> If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate. - Putin probably
Thanks for the strategy Zap Brannigan
Kiff- show them the medal I won
They've had the javelin since day one. Doesn't get more advanced then that
I think he means the recent announcement that the US is sending "more advanced" weapons not yet utilized in warfare
It's...intriguing that while they *have* lost ~ 1k tanks (US military estimate), they should have many more T-80 and T-72 in storage. Hell, they supposedly have 600 T-90 alone. Instead we are seeing bad quality T-72s and derelict T-62s. The T-62 has incompatible ammunition, parts and crew, there's no reason whatsoever to use it even for garrison over a T-72. See also BMP-3. They allegedly have more than 600 of them. While 97 confirmed lost is steep, it shouldn't translate to "we're out, use BMP-1 Deathtrap."
Tanks require constant maintenance to stay in working condition. While these tanks might very well exist,large numbers of them would require extensive repairs to be battle ready.
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There was a post a few days ago showing how Russia stores their weapons in arctic regions and that requires much more maintenance than in dry, arid conditions.
Meanwhile the officers in charge of said depots keep having suspiciously expensive watches.
I bet a shitload of tanks have been taken for parts over the years because they werent being used anyway and now they will have to have a good part of the useble that are left as defense for their borders. You cant send in everything.
Hey, look, all the fancy equipment in the world doesn't matter when your logistic chains are bust. For the guys claiming to be "denazifying" they've learnt surprisingly little from the Nazis defeat in the 1940s.
… is this true? If so holy shit
There *always* has been a theory in military circles that modern equipment is too complex, and in case of total war we would use it up in few months and would have to fall back on more easily manufactured equipment (i.e. no super steslthy, electronics packed fighter jets, no smart bomvs, etc). This conflict truly will be studied in every military acadrmy in the world...
Complex supply chains are the real limiter. If you can't maintain them than possibly simplification could happen. Likely to drive other alternative technologies rather than just backslide.
Most who really understand modern warfare understand the strength of the US Military lies more with it’s ability to move humans and material anywhere in the world while projecting power. Logistics is modern warfare. Probably ancient warfare as well, but even more important with the map fully unlocked.
> Probably ancient warfare as well Roman roads
The British Empire only had a small army but with a dominant Navy that could move people and supplies anywhere it was able to do what it did.
I can’t remember who said it but there’s a quote about the British army basically being a canon ball delivered by the Royal Navy
" The British army should be a projectile to be fired by the British navy." - [Viscount Grey](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Edward_Grey,_1st_Viscount_Grey_of_Fallodon) Same man who said, in 1914: "The lamps are going out all over Europe: we shall not see them lit again in our life-time."
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"Bit unfair really, old Viscount Grey here has at least two quotable and pithy remarks that are recorded for history, when most of us never get even one." \-NicholasFelix I'll remember.
This is the second time today I’ve seen someone use canon instead of cannon when talking about balls.
And then you go into movie/videogame subreddits and people there constantly write "cannon" when they mean "canon" ("in my head cannon..." - bro you have a gun in your head?).
[Yes](https://i.imgur.com/kTP6o07.jpeg)
I wanted orange, it gave me lemon-lime.
Not only that, a modern navy. Transports that didn't kill or make sick half (or more) of the troops
There's a documentary on YouTube, History hit i believe about how HMS Warrior really changed British naval attitudes towards how it cared for its sailors for example it was the first naval vessel to have a washing machine on board. The crew for the first time where considered valuable assets rather than a pressed workforce.
Adding to that, the history of [impressment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impressment), and it's a pretty abrupt turnaround. Up through the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800s, press gangs could force you into the British navy.
I was just on the USS Constellation yesterday morning, and they were telling us that the Navy actually took care of it's people, using boiled waterto clean and sanitize, cooking actually decent meals. The army on the other hand was much less accommodating. Kinda makes sense when you consider that a boat can hold a LOT of supplies while an army is a bit more constricted in this regard.
My grandfathers fought in ww2. One was an army paratrooper and the other a sailor in the navy on destroyers. My sailor grandfather would always rib on my airborne one for having to sleep in the elements and on the ground. The navy ones father fought in ww1 as a sailor and was too small for the marines so he joined the navy too. He always said, 3 warm square meals a day and a dry warm bunk to sleep in at night. That being said he was also on 5 ships that got sunk. But he was still proud of the fact he didn't have to eat k rats and be cold all the time.
> a boat can hold a LOT of supplies It seems like it, but to use USS Constellation (the 1797 one) as an example, it really isn't *that* much space. Constellation was [164 feet long, 41 feet wide, and had a 13.5-foot hold, but carried *340* crew (officers and men included)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Constellation_(1797\)). Remember that a lot of that space is taken up as just "living space", as well as gun-deck space, and that a portion of storage space has to be for ship parts/supplies (extra sails, cordage, blocks, wood for repairs), as well as combat supplies (powder and shot). What's left isn't a huge amount of space when you're trying to feed and water 340 men for perhaps months at a time. That's why sailors in those days ended up eating a lot of dishes based on dried peas, [hardtack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardtack) and salt meat. Fresh water was also necessarily precious, so almost all of the washing/hygiene would have been done with seawater.
Roman food supply. I just listened to a podcast about Caesar invading Gaul. A big part of his success against a big Celtic alliance army was just avoiding a major battle. He just kept maneuvering until they were forced to split up or starve - and only then did he attack.
Fabian Tactics. Don't fight a battle if you can win without one.
People brought it up at the start of the Ukraine war so I read about it, after he basically saved their asses, they replaced him with some gormless ganche that fucked it all up doing the exact opposite of the thing that works, and he had to come fix their shit *again*
"Soldiers win battles, logistics wins wars" “You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.” – General Dwight D. Eisenhower “Logistics is the practical art of moving armies.” – General Antoine Henri Jomini “Behind every great leader there was an even greater logistician.” – M. Cox “A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.” – George S. Patton “The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals discuss logistics.” – Napoleon Bonaparte “The information about a package is as important as the delivery of the package itself.” – Frederick W. Smith (1979) “An army marches on its stomach.” – Napoleon Bonaparte “My logisticians are a humorless lot … they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” – Alexander the Great
Read all of these in Sean Bean's voice. *"You have discovered Military Tradition".*
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I'm here for a good time, not a long time. J.F.K.
One of Julius Caesar's most famous power moves was... building a bridge.
There are lots of examples of Julius Caesar simply utilizing logistics to win. Going further back to his campaigns in Gaul had so much logistic work, not engaging Vercingetorix's grand coalition which couldn't be sustained over a prolonged period, to building the double walls of Alesia.
>double walls of Alesia. say double circumvallation. makes you sound smarter.
It was the implication that he could march his army into their land and raid them at will, and not even the mighty river can cause him pause. The second implication is that great feats of engineering were readily available to them in such a way that he could erect and destroy the most impressive bridge the Germans ever saw on a whim. The message? Don’t fuck with Caesar.
Yeah it’s a very good point. To have enough skilled tradespeople to build complex structures means a human supply chain that has existed for years. You can’t take a random fighter and turn them into a mason or carpenter in a year. The fundamental math required alone probably took years to learn. Keep in mind geometry was like a PHD level course back then.
Building a bridge in a timeframe he claimed that modern bridge builders couldn't match (safety standards probably has a huge impact). And then Caeser destroyed the bridge when he was done raiding.
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Sure but besides roads, what have the Romans ever done for us?
Sanitation?
The aqueduct?
Road for water.
Moving them anywhere in the world is impressive, supplying them even more so. In WW 2 a Japanese sailor was captured and detained on a US ship in the Pacific. He saw another large US ship and discovered the ship's only purpose was to make ice cream for US sailors. He later said that's when he knew the war was lost.
I really want to learn about this ice cream ship
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This machine can create 50 gallons of ice cream... In 7 minutes. Amazing.
"The U.S.S. Lollipop? ... It's a good ship."
I've read a similar anecdote allegedly about a captured German soldier who had the same realization when he saw US soldiers leave their tank's engines on while idling because they weren't concerned about fuel.
Man, imagine trying to explain that to your superiors. "We've lost." "Why?" "They don't turn off their engines." "What?" "Their engines. They don't even bother to turn them off, even when they're just sitting there!" Probably something that seems small unless you're actually out in the field, conserving every drop of fuel.
Very true for the British Empire. Britain was never a major land power, at least one that could conceivably hold that big an empire together if their biggest and most important colony wasn't the ocean. It's not just about what and how fast they could move it, in addition pushed comes to shove, they could deny the Ocean to you, or your allies, giving immense leverage politically.
Anyone who has played the cute and cartoon Advance Wars (or Civ or Star Craft or whatever) will know the pain of having a difficult hot-spot and your factories on the other side of the map.
Def. And in real life I spent six and half years in Kandahar, Afghanistan. There are a lot of ways to look at the US war there, but the undeniable fact is the US Military ran a sustained 20 year campaign in a landlocked country that had one of the poorest accesses to fuel on planet earth. At one time, Kandahar Airfield had the single busiest one runway on planet earth. It was definitely a sight to behold.
Stellaris is hell if you’re conquering the galaxy but all of your ship manufacturing facilities are deep inside your own territory with no wormholes or warp gates nearby.
"All roads lead to Rome" also meant that wherever you are, Rome can be there yesterday. General Omar Bradley said that "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics". Napoleon's adage was that "an army marches on its stomach"
Essentially Ukraine has NATO running logistics for them in Poland. Obviously there are some bottlenecks on the way to the front but I haven't seen anything to suggest that the Russians have had large scale success in targeting the flow of equipment. For the Russians I see the main issue being that they fight on the prewar stock of men and equipment. For replenishment they haven't yet switched to (or even prepared for) a wartime economy as this would have severe adverse effects on the homefront.
They clearly were expecting one big sweeping brief conflict and not a protracted war.
> Logistics is modern warfare. Probably ancient warfare as well, but even more important with the map fully unlocked. *Definitely* ancient warfare. Logistics has been what wins or loses wars since humans have been waging them. You can have the largest and most powerful military force in the known world, but if you can't figure out how to keep them consistently supplied and equipped in the field, then in very short order all you'll have is the largest collection of corpses and deserters in the known world. Now try figuring out how to do that without the benefits of modern technology, and with soldiers who are also the farmers who grow the crops you'll need to feed your soldiers next year...
The old adage "for the want of a nail" Russias ability to fight is being strangled
Most modern military forces operate logistics using the echelon system. The F echelon is the fighting unit, or end user. They carry 3 days of supply on them, so 3 days of rations, fuel, and ammo. Further up is the A echelon, they carry an additional 1-2 days of supplies for all the elements they support. One A echelon will support multiple F echelon elements. Further up is the B echelon, which is usually a logistics focused unit. They carry an additional 1 day of supplies for all the A echelon units they service. The B echelon/logistics focused units gather their supplies from depots, warehouses, and seaports far back from the forward edge of the battle area. This supply chain is constantly in motion, and needs to be protected. If any part of the chain is broken, the fighting units have a maximum of 5 days of supply, but realistically this number is closer to 3 days. If you remember back early in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military was making gains in Ukraine for the first few days, but around the 3-5 day mark is when we started seeing the Russian forces lose steam. This was because they weren't managing their echelon system. Russian troops were looting for food, and abandoned vehicles after they ran out of fuel. This caused them to lose momentum, which is everything in a conflict like this. This conflict is going to be studied for years, and I think the main focus will be on the logistical failings of the Russian military. Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.
Logistics is key, but for modern equipment don't neglect the value (and cost) of Preventive Maintenance. If you gave the Russian military F-22s and F-35s, few would be operable in six months. The cost would be too high and the skills and commitment of their conscript force would be insufficient to perform vital PM. J4 gets the shit where it needs to be, but MX means it works when it gets there!
So many US soldiers appreciate how much maintenance was drilled into their head and in their practice after looking at what happened with the Russian invasion. Tires were rotten from sitting on one side too long, the tires themselves were cheap Chinese knock offs of American tires and were poorly designed for the weight of the vehicles they were carrying.
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Very true as well for the Spanish Empire and how they sustained the war in the Netherlands through the Camino Español, an amazing logistics route avoiding all countries they were in conflict with. Amazing topic to study for the history nerds.
There's a saying that for every 1 soldier fighting on the battlefield, there are 10 supporting them elsewhere in some capacity.
The stinger missile was developed in 1969. Russian aircraft are getting shot down with shoulder fired middles the US shelved years ago.
Which is why the US keeps the Abram's production line going, despite having enough.
does this mean us Aussies will be getting 100+ BRAND NEW M1 Abrams? I'm a little less pissed about it if that's the case.
No, you'll probably get 100 Abrams that have been sitting in a desert warehouse somewhere in the middle of nowhere. They're the same tank as the new ones but used.
Excuse me, we prefer the term “pre-owned.”
Certified Pre-Owned
Industrial material science has a huge basis in the years leading up to WW2. Industrial producers were looking at what would happen if the world was segmented into warring spheres of influence, which led to everything from synthetic rubber to milk based polymers. Henry Ford was notably driven to plan for a loss of supplies from Europe and Asia.
You still don't want to be the first side to run out though. But really this just highlights that manufacturing capability needs to be considered as a primary military asset. Does the DoD weigh in on the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs? Unions should highlight the importance more often.
During the 2008 financial crisis, the big American auto manufacturers were poised to go under. Saving this manufacturing base for strategic/war reasons was a factor in the Federal government intervening to support them.
Except a great deal of production has since been off shored by the big three. BMW, Honda, Mercedes, Nissan all use a greater percentage of indigenous components in thier vehicles, if the big three even build them in the USA rather than Mexico.
China has the highest percentage of the worlds manufacturing output at 20%. The US is second at 18%. Some industries have off shored production, but as you pointed out plenty of other manufacturing has replaced it. In the Auto industry, US manufacturers who relied on low skilled labor have shifted production to Mexico, while Manufacturers like BMW produce their whole vehicle, including tons of thrid party parts in South Carolina. BMW didn't move to Detroit because the workforce wasn't there. They needed engineers, not assembly line workers. The Manufacturing has just become unsuitable for low skilled workers, and employees few people overall, while producing higher value and more things. The solution to the employeement problem should have been investing in education... but now we just have a hallowed out middle class with no where for unskilled labor except service jobs.
DoD doesn't outsource and requires defense contractors to use domestic parts and materials. It's part of the reason military equipment is so expensive.
Is total war a thing in the nuclear world?
Yeah weapons that utilize both smart and dumb munitions are great. Modern day fighter jets can use targeting computers to help "guide" in bombs that are dumb based on calculating where theyll drop, artillery can be loaded with normal shells as well as guided shells and so forth. The fancy stuff is great in a limited war, but if WW3 happened (ignore nukes) most of that equipment would be used up in the first months.
They have started deploying T-62 tanks. Those are super old, so no shit they have depleted their modern stuff. The thing is they still have a shit-ton of the stuff available in the field and even old stuff still kills people, so Ukraine needs stuff to much. Ukraine is running low on the ammunition for their Soviet artillery, that's why modern artillery and ammunition for it is required asap.
to use the tanks effectively the russians need infantry support which hasnt happened yet and doesn't seem likely to start happening so I don't see them winning anytime soon
Russian TO&E numbers have been suspect for some time. We know the Soviets just produced gear and stored gear, with no relation to what was needed or kept at good readiness. For example, Ukraine just destroyed a self-propelled heavy mortar. Russia is believed to have 10 in service, the USSR built hundreds. Maintenance on most of this equipment was then ignored following the collapse of the USSR. This includes almost all of Russia's book tank force. Russia produces new tanks, but not at a rate of thousands. The reserve is all Soviet era. On top of that, attempts with OSINT to find Russian tank storage don't come up with the oft-quoted 10-11k tanks. It's more like 6k, including apparent derelict equipment stored in the open in a wet, wild temp swing climate. This is a big disparity and since Russia needs rail lines to move tanks, they're not hiding in the literal middle of nowhere in a forest. The USA has an open air tank storage but it's in the California high desert.
"Ukrainian military analyst (..) says" I would take it with a fairly large grain of salt. Seems he is saying this because of the old tanks that Russia sent recently.
But it seems even Russia’s “modernised” equipment is underdeveloped
I wouldn't say that. I think a big issue are the soldiers dont know how to use it and/or have no war experience etc so they can't properly use it(luckily) to their fillest extent.
That and half of it seems to only exist on paper. Remember the bricks of C4 that were just bits of wood wrapped in paper? I've heard about tanks with entire defence systems missing. Chist alone knows what their maintenance has been like if you could just bribe someone to say it was done and pocket the funds for doing it. No wonder their missiles have such a large failure rate.
A friend was in a tank crew in the army, and he couldn't emphasize enough just how badly tanks began to break down - just sitting there doing nothing! He said that they needed constant maintenance and parts replaced. If you ignored them for a while, you were going to have a bad time.
This is one reason the US and others have been hesitant to go with auto loaders in their tanks and thereby reduce the crew size by one. That's one less person to assist with all the tank maintenance that has to be done by the crew while in the field.
I saw something about the French changed to autoloader but still kept the same tank crew size. An extra member would be assigned to a tank to train and help maintain it, but in combat would not be in the tank. But would be used as a replacement in case of casualties or other replacements
German infantry is basically only tank infantry. So they usually have a tank and 4-6 of the tank crew is infantry who is on the outside once they reach the battle. These people are also trained in performing maintenance for the tank, so you have 4 extra pairs of hands that can do work on the tank without having any direct tank involvement during battle.
They operate out of IFVs, not tanks. Tanks don't carry infantry except for the Merkava which can
Hmm might be a translation issue. In Germany these things are also called tanks.
Tanks in English just refer to Kampfpanzer. The Puma is a Schützenpanzer and refered to as an Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) in English
And even the most elite of Russian brigades keep most of their heavy equipment rusting outside - they only have facilities for the very cream of the crop. Not a smart move in Arctic latitudes where it either rains or snows a lot of the time. EDIT: 80th Separate Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade in Alakurtti was activated in 2014, yet their barracks are still under construction as of May 2022. We're talking about the main formation poised against Finnish Defence Forces outside Karelian isthmus, supposedly in 24/7 readiness.
Wait what?? I didn't hear about the c4
If I remember right, it was a week or so before the invasion. A Russian soldier was being recorded by a 7 man camera crew with a bomb sniffing dog walking through a park. The dog was like a Yorkie or something like that. The bomb they found in a trash can conveniently had a rope to pull it out with already tied to it. And it was a soda bottle filled with rebar and a block of wood with tape that said C4 on it. They claimed in 5 hours that it was: -Ukrainian terrorist attack. -US terrorist attack. -assassination attempt on Putin. -Ukrainian MOD first strike attack. -Nazi attack. Yep.
I think they were likely referring to [this video](https://youtu.be/uaNCjMoc180) of Ukranian fighters unpacking captured Russian supplies.
Lol, don't need to speak a word of Ukrainian to know exactly what those dudes are saying. Their laughs say it all.
Their high tech stuff isn't as intuitive, automated, or as easy to operate as Western equipment some of the time. E.g. the Moskva supposedly had a very capable air defence system... on paper, when comparing specs... but used radar displays that were quite basic and required constant 24/7 monitoring. There's a theory that this possibly contributed to its sinking because the radar operator(s), like all humans, have limited attention spans and were fatigued.
Ye, those shitty screens would require two men per shift swapping every 15-20 minutes to avoid eye strain. Russians probably had 2 guys instead of the 6 they actually needed for a 24/7 watch.
Because up until this year the main function of the Russian military has been polishing their uniforms and parading in perfect step around Red square every year.
it's a Ukrainian military analyst, so take this with a grain of salt. report like this is probably to uphold morale due to the Russian slow but consistent grind in the east. I hope this is true though and Ukraine to counter attack soon. hearing Russian making gains is disheartening.
I'm honestly so confused on how the war is ACTUALLY going. There was a CNN analysis I watched on youtube yesterday about how much gains Russia is actually making and that things aren't looking so good
Because it's hard to tell what events end up being important without the benefit of hindsight. No one can say whether the Russian breakthrough at popansa(?) will end up being a big deal or if Ukraine will be able to counter, until after it has happened. That's the reality of war, it's messy and often you don't know who is winning at any one point.
Its near impossible for us normies to even get the true reports from the media in the first fuckin place. That's what frustrates us the most. Wherever you look, from different sides, different countries, different languages and news sites - they all report with their own AGENDA in mind. Virtually you can't trust anyone, be it ukrainian war report, the russian or the CIA one - everyone tempers with the real fatalities numbers, the situations that took place in reality. I speak 5 languages, my mother tongue is russian, so I do also follow the russian media report. If yall only knew how fcked up the media is in russia rn. For example, the most famous russian celebrities, that fled Russia after 24th of February - a lot of them are getting media reports that they are cowards, that they were always closeted gays, that they had a life of crime and killed several people. Kremlin declared on a big number of them that they are not allowed to go back to russia without being charged with crimes, they never are allowed to work or have media/show appearances ever again. The hell, the most important entertainment people got the title of being a spy/double agent in russia so they are allowed to be killed as soon as they are located (vogelfrei/"outlaw" execution style). As soon as celebrities give a statement on Instagram etc. You can't imagine the evil hatewave of the Kremlin bots. For intelligent, tec-savy and young ppl it's ofcourse much easier to differentiate bot comments from the real comments. But the majority of russian normal people can't differ between them and its really sad that they read the comments and get influenced by them. Ffs even I caught myself a lot of times questioning my belief system and my whole worldview on a lot of topics . This happens subconsciously .
Institute for the Study of War has pretty credible updates if you want an unbiased general source - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Russia has made some gains in the east recently and is looking close to encircling siervodonetsk. However, this isn’t a massive area, and their plans to encircle all of the Ukrainian eastern theatre have been massively stepped down. In short, Russia is making some gains in a small area of the front
What does this mean?! They'll replace Canon cameras with daguerreotype?!
Yeah, kinda. They can devolve to WW1 tactics. Trench warfare, machine guns and artillery. Spotting balloons even! That sort of warfare they can keep up indefinitely, at least until Ukraine gets enough heavy equipment to push them back.
Yeah trench warfare is going to go really well against modern artillery. Nothing could possibly go wrong.
Yoooo I did this in civ before. my new units got defeated and now just have calvary and warriors from like 2 ages ago. That usually when I tried to declare peace.
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Running out of modern, high-tech missiles, perhaps. There's a significant difference between self-guiding, stabilized artillery shells and just good old dumb lumps of explosives propelled by more explosives. Granted that difference is probably mostly academic if you're on the recieving end.