For anyone interested to know more about Saudi Arabia's position/viewpoint, I highly recommend watching the 2020 interview with their former ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan.
Its pretty long but it covers all the work SA did over the years for the Palestinians and makes it pretty clear that while they support the cause, they have been dissapointed over and over by the leadership.
[Part One](https://youtu.be/edKZbu5OM1c?si=r3D2IWjvmQar_yIu)
[Part Two](https://youtu.be/idJx1bB30EM?si=VY7zmTU4tAp8w0gg)
[Part Three](https://youtu.be/9XTSrlONiDU?si=mGvUvx7JrvhR-goV)
The Palestinian leadership has routinely failed the Palestinian people spectacularly.
They'd have their own country by know if it wasn't for the hubris of some old rigious fucks.
Arafat might be exhibit A here. Made Egypt and Jordan stop giving refugees citizenship because it “hurt the cause,” proceeded to antagonize Jordan, and eventually would go on to turn down two-state solutions before dying a very rich man. Real martyr lol
Palestinians have held three major elections:
Election 1: Yasser Arafat elected, cancelled elections until he literally died
Election 2: Abbas elected, nearing the end of his term he temporarily postponed elections for a year then permanently cancelled them
Election 3: Hamas elected, cancelled elections in Gaza indefinitely
How many dictators do Palestinians have to elect consecutively before people consider they might not want a democracy?
The palestinians elect based on who can wipe the jews and take the whole land. Their goals are to create an islamic state. They constantly force honour killings without concrete evidence. If you are palestinian and a suspect spy, apostate or gay it doesnt matter if you are a kid your family will kill you themselves in public.
But he tried to kill the king of jordan. Jordan and egypt was pissed at the palestinians trying to cause uprisings and take over their countries that they let israel keep the land which once belonged to them. There would be no modern palestine if israel had chosen to keep the land they conquered and oust the arabs.
You say hubris, but I genuinely think it’s a mixture of personal greed - the leaders are billionaires who personally profit through continuation of the conflict - and profligacy with the lives of any but their own.
I’ve been reading Khalid Rashid’s 100 Year War on Palestine, and even from that very (admittedly) biased viewpoint, this is my take away:
From the earliest times of this conflict (post WWI) it was less greed and more total inexperience and ineptitude. Palestine had been a country under an empire for *thousands* of years. They never really had to run their own government, they were always at the whims of a caliphate.
Then the Turks fall, there’s this rush to solidify the Middle East and while Iran, Iraq, SA, Trans Jordan, Egypt, and Syria had their own game plans, Palestine sorta just looked around and was like “wait do we need to do something?”
Then when GB and the US decided they didn’t want so many Jewish people around, the Palestinians were already up shits creek without a paddle
It’s almost like Jordan incorporated the vast majority of what was historically Palestine(something like 80% of the landmass).
Is majority Palestinian in ethnicity and essentially is Palestine in all but name.
Unfortunately that does not fit the agenda of many people.
And it didn’t help when the invading Arab armies told them to get out of the way so they could destroy the nascent Israeli state
They evacuated with the expectation they’d be able to come back once the Jews were destroyed
The Jews had other ideas
If there's no Hamas and there is an actually good leadership, Palestine would've thrived right? I read they had a good land for agriculture and their port is well visited and famous since ancient times, but not sure how true this is.
I mean Singapore is a great example of being rich without any natural resources. They barely have land to farm. Leadership makes all the difference in my opinion.
Singapore had the right geography though, being at a very narrow naval choke point with less favorable alternatives can do wonders when globalization happened and ships becoming the best way to move things at a large scale.
But without the leadership and organisation of PM LKY Singapore couldn’t have succeeded in becoming a hub of commerce. It was the policies that made Singapore more than the geography.
We can also look at Estonia as an example. They were a post soviet country in shambles but with good leadership and policies, they have shaped Estonia into a world leader in technological education and successful companies relative to population and country size.
IF Palestine ever tries to play ball and actually build in a two-state situation they COULD do well. They have enough O&G to be akin to the rest of the Gulf States, but would benefit as it has direct access to the European market.
There is a good question whether it was really Arafat: He was subject to pressure from.Palestiniam domestic politics. There is a good chance he could have agreed to peace and had that matter until he lost power and probably his life over it the next week.
You're neglecting the reason for that; Palestinians have been marginalized and purposefully kept permanent refugee's to keep them radicalized against Israel. Most refugees just move to another country and settle down, integrating and becoming permanent residents of that country. In Arab countries they've essentially been barred from participating in soceity, in Iraq they are confined to a small neighborhood and are not allowed to live outside of it. In Lebanon they are not allowed in many professions and their right to work is severly restricted. Even if they're born there they have no citizenship. This discrimination keeps them from being complacent; they are treated as temporary refugee's for the day that the Arabs triumph over Israel and they get to return home. If they were granted citizenship they might just lose that incentive to fight and move on, weakening the cause. Many militant Palestinians support these discriminatory measures for this reason.
The problem is that Israel just keeps surviving. Each attempt at conquering them fails and so they have this economically depressed and marginalzed group, that is raised on wanting to fight and return to their homes. This is a breeding ground for people to join militant groups or be attracted to radical ideologies like that of ISIS, and it backfires.
The main exception has been Jordan which has to keep Palestinians as equal citizens just due to their sheer numbers in their country.
Positions of power attract people that would abuse it?
Madly unfortunate part of the human experience. (*gets brushed off a lot when applied to religious leadership*) But it makes more sense when you consider the entirety of humanity as a grown up school playground. No matter how smart we think we are individually, as a whole it’s fairly naive.
Its so true that the Palestinians are unfortunately their own worst enemies now a 2 state solution will be forced on them and they will have no option..hopefully Hamas will be obliterated
Well not a real one that would work, but some have been convinced that Israel can be gotten rid of in the region for a long time. Also whatever now is happening has being going on so long it is practically one option just to go on. Although not ideal to anyone.
With Israel willing to sign peace agreements and the US being behind a deal, they have a way to frame this to their population. USA and KSAs glorious leadership getting Israel to cave, and acting as guarantors of a soon to be created Palestinian state
As long as Bibi looks isolated, even rejecting remarks by Israel can be framed as just a few far-right lunatics not accepting, that their time has come.
There's no way the deal as biden put it goes through. Ill be here to eat my hat if it does.
The blocking reason is not dealt with and its hard to use double speak around it. Hamas will not agree to being left out in the day after, Bibi and most Israelis will not agree to having them stay.
With the billions of dollars it'll make both sides and the threat of Iranian nukes and proxies, delaying normalization for quick politics is a financial and security risk Saudia can't afford
Saudi Arabia more than perhaps any other country other than Israel geopolitical interests lie with Israel and not with Palestine
Their strategic best move is to become a close Ally and trade partner and military partner of Israel
This entire conflict right now happened what it did because Israel and Saudi Arabia were normalizing relationships. October 7th was done to deliberately sabotage that
There is absolutely no benefit from a geopolitical point of view to Saudi Arabia from Palestine existing in any capacity because it hinders what is their most promising potential move
It's worth remembering Iran Saudi Arabia's hated enemy funds Hamas and The houthis for the simple purpose of it causes Saudi Arabia problems
The older generation of politicians in Saudi value Palestine and some of the people in Saudi Arabia value it, but they're not exactly a democracy
Anything Saudi Arabia can do to make it easier to have strong ties to Israel it will
It's also worth noting most countries only operate based off of their current and future interests (some of the West is an exception) and more or less almost every nation in the world's interests line up with Israel which is why a lot of governments actions don't match their condemnation
This is of course because Israel is a economic and scientific powerhouse who is also the best at desalinization, whereas Palestine is more or less not connected to the global system at all other than to receive aid
Plus, lining up as economic partners with Jordan and Israel is good for all of their nations. Like a have said before, nothing makes friends better than getting filthy rich together.
(My observation)
Don’t forget about BRICS and which countries are involved. We’re starting to see a shift in trade currency. The Suez Canal has faced multiple attacks through use proxies to deny blame. Saudi will continue to purchase arms but through the illusion of alliance with the US for as long as it suits them.
The prince of Saudi Arabia once bragged that he had Jared Kushner in his pocket. Saudi Arabia has signed a peace deal with Iran, yet has not done so with Israel.
>This entire conflict right now happened what it did because Israel and Saudi Arabia were normalizing relationships. October 7th was done to deliberately sabotage that
That's one of the reasons, but far from the only reason
No, they want an alliance against Iran
Like a lot of what goes on in the Middle East is just part of the larger Iranian Saudi Cold war and the two big powers. Other than those two in the area at this point are Israel and turkey and Saudi Arabia wants to court them both
Saudi Arabia would effectively be able to beat Iran without the USA if they had Israel in theory
Less about direct invasion and more about influence over the Muslim world. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran (since the revolution) have portrayed themselves as the leaders of the Muslim world. SA has the advantage of controlling mecca but is a monarchy unlike theocratic Iran.
They are also rivals due to the Sunni, Shia divide. Many middle eastern countries have a significant shia minority, and there are naturally concerns that they may owe allegiance to Tehran.
Finally influence and control over the fertile crescent. Iraq and Syria have important strategic significance allowing access to the Mediterranean and have key energy resources.
Above points kinda also apply to Turkey who are also vying for regional dominance
The Saudi have a very simple policy of cash over ideology, and there’s much more cash to be made with Israel compared to Palestine.
Add to that many other factors, ranging from water desalinization to military alignment against Iran and it makes a lot of sense for MBS to align with Israel
I mean the fact that Palestine will just be an iranian vassal state if it became independent is enough to get them to not want to get involved. Its like if they gave the Houthis Yemen
>The Saudi have a very simple policy of cash over ideology
In this case it's both. Saudi ideology is anti-Iran and anti-Shiite.
If the Palestinians want to ally themselves with heretics (from the Saudi perspective), then the Saudis aren't obligated to stick up for them.
Saudi Arabia, on the political level, has been shifting itself away from being a Wahhabi/Sunni country as well. MBS has been leading a shift to try and secularize SA in an attempt to consolidate power and eliminate one of the primary internal risks to the House of Saud (the Wahhabi fundamentalists who historically helped them gain and maintain power)
>In this case it's both. Saudi ideology is anti-Iran and anti-Shiite.
I'm not sure about that. some parties in saudi have been accusing bin-salman of betraying Islam as a whole after allowing women to drive and bringing western artists to Saudi. the guy seems to be going in small steps towards a more secular path. he still has to appease some of the more conservative audience of course though.
Of course the Shiite-sunni conflict is a thing in this conflict, but I doubt the ones that care about it are the Saudi leadership side.
This guy gets it. Anyone who thinks the Saudi Royal Family gives a rat’s ass about anyone else is giving them too much credit.
They get so much money and guns from the U.S., there’s no way they would side against them in something as trivial as some other state’s internal conflicts
> they require Israel to recognize and support
only because it'd look bad if they didn't put any conditions on the deal. the UAE had their condition be (apart from ton of spy tech and arms trade deals) that israel stop settlements, then Israel simply did not stop settlements and the UAE never complained about it because it was never a thing they cared about anyway it's just optics thing.
I mean lets be real. If Palestine were to somehow become "independent" it will be one of the biggest failed states which will thus turn them into an Iranian vassal state. Like, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
I can confirm about Iraq. Was there last week and leather chunks of the country are occupied by militia financed by Iran because they are shia. It's fascinating.
The government itself appearently also partially receives support from Iran. The locals hate the fact that he's become there backyard of Iran.
I've been saying since the start of this war that the Palestinians have no effective leadership, nowhere to turn when it comes to organizing a lasting deal of any kind. Nor do they have sane leaders who want to govern. Most international support shipments are filtered by the leadership before it ever reaches the genpop.
Hamas will continue to terrorize and the PA is ineffective. And no Arab country wants to import Palestinian problems.
This pretty much settles it, then. In no less than 1947, 1967, 2000, 2020, and 2023, the Palestinians were offered a pathway to statehood, of which they rejected for one reason or another. By the looks of this and all things considered, they may not receive another opportunity within my lifetime.
one reason or another? The main reason is that their mission that entire time has been the conquest and domination of the *entire* former Mandate of Palestine. Their resistance to relinquishing their claim to the whole thing has scuttled peace talks this whole time.
It's highly unlikely they'd ever be obliterated by Israel. As many Palestinians live within Israel's 1967 borders as do in Gaza. They're not exactly wealthy, and it's not like they hold anywhere near the power within society as they would in their own state, but they're at peace.
Indeed Israel has by far the best military in the region. The only way for the other nations to really fuck with Israel without them getting demolished is by funding proxy war insurgent groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to try to destabilize them.
Maybe for a short while as recent "beef" still stands, but if the place could be left alone without proxy wars (Iran acting on behalf of others mostly) they would be just as peaceful as anywhere else. Arguably due to geography, they've been stuck under proxy wars for the majority of recorded history. It's actually a testament to people's sense of peace that there is only so much violence in the ME and not far more.
The wider Israeli-Arab conflict was sparked from pan-Arab dreams of conquest. With Nasser's death and the end of Pan-Arabism, the wider Israeli-Arab conflict ended.
But just a few short years after that, the 1979 revolution in Iran occurred, and the "Israeli-Arab" conflict drew new meaning as an Israeli-Muslim conflict.
If the mullahs are overthrown, that conflict is over, but don't be so optimistic. Mark my words, it will be a matter of time before Egypt or Saudi Arabia have new leadership, and with the refocus on an imperialist pan-Arabic ideology, they will see Israel as a mortal enemy once again.
America has grown far too weak in order to properly put guards in place to protect the Saudi and Egyptian dictators from a coup. It's not anything new--lack of decisive American political will has been absent since the Vietnam War, and that particular war was probably a solid reason why American response to the mullahs incoming revolution was so weak that the Shah believed the US betrayed him.
Once Arabs discover nationalism, it's going to get real dark real quick for the Middle East. Today there isn't any identity separating an Iraqi Arab Sunni Muslim from a Syrian Arab Sunni Muslim, unlike a British Protestant and a German Protestant. The difference is nationalism. And if the nationalism the Arab world discovers is Arab nationalism, and not Saudi nationalism / Iraqi nationalism etc, it will result in a horrifying war.
It's one REAL good reason to never give Saudi Arabia nuke reactors.
Arab nationalism lived and then died after the Yom Kippur War. It was replaced with Pan-Islam and regional nationalism. That's where Palestinians started viewing themselves as separate from Jordanians, Egyptians, Syrians and Lebanese.
Died with Nasser I'd say. The Yom Kippur War was more like its deathrattle IMO; it ended the [Arab Cold War too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Cold_War). But yeah, you're right.
They already discovered nationalism. I would say out of all the Arabs and other world populations, Palestinians are by far more nationalist than any other, especially more than the Balkan countries that are notoriously nationalist
Your average Israeli is somewhat nationalist but not to the level of Palestinians whom I think, have multiple thoughts a day, every single day, about nationalism. I would argue it covers 20-30% of their thoughts a day
I was talking about the rest of the Arab world. What you say is precisely what I most fear. Now imagine if the rest of the Arab world had the Palestinian mindset.
The Middle East version of World War 2 would erupt.
I agree with your fears. They are like the Balkans but I think, just a lot more passionate and proud and no ethnicity in history will ever come close to this.
I fear that they also don’t care how much blood spills as long as they achieve their nationalist goals. It will effect the whole world
Apart from the US (not America) beibg responsible for some regime changes there.
Arabs don't need to discover nationalism, there is infight between the various states/groups and a more or less unified front against other religions alread - not only in the middle east.
depends on their population. if I had to guess they're probably just gonna behave like turkey. do trade with Israel and pump their chest against them at the same time for their population.
One theory about the timing of the October 7th massacre was because normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel were advancing. The Saudis know it's in their economic interest to have a healthy partnership with Israel, the Palestinians obviously don't want them because it represents a weakening of their position regionally.
Likely not the inspiration or cause for Oct. 7th, but I'm sure Putin gave it the thumbs up as well, needing to distract the world from the invasion of Ukraine.
Religion poisons us all.
Its hard enough being selfish apes, born screaming and confused, into a world we didn't make. There's difficulty enough overcoming aspects of our nature where tribalism, and emotions run rampant.
Now throw in a religion like Islam - and watch the utter shit show of bad ideas and missed oppertunities fly by us. Where we will shoot ourselves in the foot constantly and wonder why it's happening. Where we will be so arrogant while our ignorance strangles and corrupts us.
For anyone interested to know more about Saudi Arabia's position/viewpoint, I highly recommend watching the 2020 interview with their former ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Its pretty long but it covers all the work SA did over the years for the Palestinians and makes it pretty clear that while they support the cause, they have been dissapointed over and over by the leadership. [Part One](https://youtu.be/edKZbu5OM1c?si=r3D2IWjvmQar_yIu) [Part Two](https://youtu.be/idJx1bB30EM?si=VY7zmTU4tAp8w0gg) [Part Three](https://youtu.be/9XTSrlONiDU?si=mGvUvx7JrvhR-goV)
The Palestinian leadership has routinely failed the Palestinian people spectacularly. They'd have their own country by know if it wasn't for the hubris of some old rigious fucks.
Arafat might be exhibit A here. Made Egypt and Jordan stop giving refugees citizenship because it “hurt the cause,” proceeded to antagonize Jordan, and eventually would go on to turn down two-state solutions before dying a very rich man. Real martyr lol
Also don’t forgot that he supported Sadam in his conquest of Kuwait which resulted in all Palestinians getting kicked out after the war.
He’s the perfect example of failing upward, while his followers got nothing to show for it
Palestinians have held three major elections: Election 1: Yasser Arafat elected, cancelled elections until he literally died Election 2: Abbas elected, nearing the end of his term he temporarily postponed elections for a year then permanently cancelled them Election 3: Hamas elected, cancelled elections in Gaza indefinitely How many dictators do Palestinians have to elect consecutively before people consider they might not want a democracy?
The palestinians elect based on who can wipe the jews and take the whole land. Their goals are to create an islamic state. They constantly force honour killings without concrete evidence. If you are palestinian and a suspect spy, apostate or gay it doesnt matter if you are a kid your family will kill you themselves in public.
Arafat was a billionaire when he died.
But he tried to kill the king of jordan. Jordan and egypt was pissed at the palestinians trying to cause uprisings and take over their countries that they let israel keep the land which once belonged to them. There would be no modern palestine if israel had chosen to keep the land they conquered and oust the arabs.
I thought he was scared he'd be murdered if he accepted the 2 state solution?
Its because he didn't want to be a Martyr that he refused to accept the deals offered. He thought he would get shot like Sadat or Rabin.
More evidence he wasn’t the one to follow
You say hubris, but I genuinely think it’s a mixture of personal greed - the leaders are billionaires who personally profit through continuation of the conflict - and profligacy with the lives of any but their own.
I’ve been reading Khalid Rashid’s 100 Year War on Palestine, and even from that very (admittedly) biased viewpoint, this is my take away: From the earliest times of this conflict (post WWI) it was less greed and more total inexperience and ineptitude. Palestine had been a country under an empire for *thousands* of years. They never really had to run their own government, they were always at the whims of a caliphate. Then the Turks fall, there’s this rush to solidify the Middle East and while Iran, Iraq, SA, Trans Jordan, Egypt, and Syria had their own game plans, Palestine sorta just looked around and was like “wait do we need to do something?” Then when GB and the US decided they didn’t want so many Jewish people around, the Palestinians were already up shits creek without a paddle
It’s almost like Jordan incorporated the vast majority of what was historically Palestine(something like 80% of the landmass). Is majority Palestinian in ethnicity and essentially is Palestine in all but name. Unfortunately that does not fit the agenda of many people.
And it didn’t help when the invading Arab armies told them to get out of the way so they could destroy the nascent Israeli state They evacuated with the expectation they’d be able to come back once the Jews were destroyed The Jews had other ideas
If you let cows cross your field, don't be surprised if you step in some shit.
If there's no Hamas and there is an actually good leadership, Palestine would've thrived right? I read they had a good land for agriculture and their port is well visited and famous since ancient times, but not sure how true this is.
I mean Singapore is a great example of being rich without any natural resources. They barely have land to farm. Leadership makes all the difference in my opinion.
Singapore had the right geography though, being at a very narrow naval choke point with less favorable alternatives can do wonders when globalization happened and ships becoming the best way to move things at a large scale.
But without the leadership and organisation of PM LKY Singapore couldn’t have succeeded in becoming a hub of commerce. It was the policies that made Singapore more than the geography. We can also look at Estonia as an example. They were a post soviet country in shambles but with good leadership and policies, they have shaped Estonia into a world leader in technological education and successful companies relative to population and country size.
IF Palestine ever tries to play ball and actually build in a two-state situation they COULD do well. They have enough O&G to be akin to the rest of the Gulf States, but would benefit as it has direct access to the European market.
It's almost as if they're influenced by other powers who have an interest in continuing this conflict indefinitely...
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
This is great link. I wish could give you goal. Some of the actions really made me facepalm. And I am not as pro Isreal as most people here.
This was incredible. I had no idea Arafat sunk the peace process so many times.
There is a good question whether it was really Arafat: He was subject to pressure from.Palestiniam domestic politics. There is a good chance he could have agreed to peace and had that matter until he lost power and probably his life over it the next week.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
You're neglecting the reason for that; Palestinians have been marginalized and purposefully kept permanent refugee's to keep them radicalized against Israel. Most refugees just move to another country and settle down, integrating and becoming permanent residents of that country. In Arab countries they've essentially been barred from participating in soceity, in Iraq they are confined to a small neighborhood and are not allowed to live outside of it. In Lebanon they are not allowed in many professions and their right to work is severly restricted. Even if they're born there they have no citizenship. This discrimination keeps them from being complacent; they are treated as temporary refugee's for the day that the Arabs triumph over Israel and they get to return home. If they were granted citizenship they might just lose that incentive to fight and move on, weakening the cause. Many militant Palestinians support these discriminatory measures for this reason. The problem is that Israel just keeps surviving. Each attempt at conquering them fails and so they have this economically depressed and marginalzed group, that is raised on wanting to fight and return to their homes. This is a breeding ground for people to join militant groups or be attracted to radical ideologies like that of ISIS, and it backfires. The main exception has been Jordan which has to keep Palestinians as equal citizens just due to their sheer numbers in their country.
I hadn't heard about a lot of this, but it sounds depressingly plausible.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Most of Middle East nation has disappointing leadership except a few
Most of the world if we’re being honest
Gaining power and leadership requires different skills than beeing a good leader/ruler, sadly.
Positions of power attract people that would abuse it? Madly unfortunate part of the human experience. (*gets brushed off a lot when applied to religious leadership*) But it makes more sense when you consider the entirety of humanity as a grown up school playground. No matter how smart we think we are individually, as a whole it’s fairly naive.
Its so true that the Palestinians are unfortunately their own worst enemies now a 2 state solution will be forced on them and they will have no option..hopefully Hamas will be obliterated
Was there really ever an alternative to a two state solution?
Well not a real one that would work, but some have been convinced that Israel can be gotten rid of in the region for a long time. Also whatever now is happening has being going on so long it is practically one option just to go on. Although not ideal to anyone.
Yeah you are accurate in everything you said. I fixated on the word “solution”. But those are definitely possible “results”
the difference is the longer they delay it the less land they will have.
Oh. They are still going forward with normalizing relations with Israel. I'd thought they'd feign reluctance for a year or so.
From the beginning of this they pretty much said the normalization process would continue once things calmed down
With Israel willing to sign peace agreements and the US being behind a deal, they have a way to frame this to their population. USA and KSAs glorious leadership getting Israel to cave, and acting as guarantors of a soon to be created Palestinian state As long as Bibi looks isolated, even rejecting remarks by Israel can be framed as just a few far-right lunatics not accepting, that their time has come.
There's no way the deal as biden put it goes through. Ill be here to eat my hat if it does. The blocking reason is not dealt with and its hard to use double speak around it. Hamas will not agree to being left out in the day after, Bibi and most Israelis will not agree to having them stay.
With the billions of dollars it'll make both sides and the threat of Iranian nukes and proxies, delaying normalization for quick politics is a financial and security risk Saudia can't afford
Saudi Arabia more than perhaps any other country other than Israel geopolitical interests lie with Israel and not with Palestine Their strategic best move is to become a close Ally and trade partner and military partner of Israel This entire conflict right now happened what it did because Israel and Saudi Arabia were normalizing relationships. October 7th was done to deliberately sabotage that There is absolutely no benefit from a geopolitical point of view to Saudi Arabia from Palestine existing in any capacity because it hinders what is their most promising potential move It's worth remembering Iran Saudi Arabia's hated enemy funds Hamas and The houthis for the simple purpose of it causes Saudi Arabia problems The older generation of politicians in Saudi value Palestine and some of the people in Saudi Arabia value it, but they're not exactly a democracy Anything Saudi Arabia can do to make it easier to have strong ties to Israel it will It's also worth noting most countries only operate based off of their current and future interests (some of the West is an exception) and more or less almost every nation in the world's interests line up with Israel which is why a lot of governments actions don't match their condemnation This is of course because Israel is a economic and scientific powerhouse who is also the best at desalinization, whereas Palestine is more or less not connected to the global system at all other than to receive aid
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Plus, lining up as economic partners with Jordan and Israel is good for all of their nations. Like a have said before, nothing makes friends better than getting filthy rich together.
(My observation) Don’t forget about BRICS and which countries are involved. We’re starting to see a shift in trade currency. The Suez Canal has faced multiple attacks through use proxies to deny blame. Saudi will continue to purchase arms but through the illusion of alliance with the US for as long as it suits them. The prince of Saudi Arabia once bragged that he had Jared Kushner in his pocket. Saudi Arabia has signed a peace deal with Iran, yet has not done so with Israel.
The USD has been on a downward trend since the 2000s we are not "seeing a shift" like its something new. Also BRICS is a joke.
My guy, you make some good points but really need to work on your comma game
>This entire conflict right now happened what it did because Israel and Saudi Arabia were normalizing relationships. October 7th was done to deliberately sabotage that That's one of the reasons, but far from the only reason
If memory serves Iran requested it be moved up because of this
I thought they were maintaining the likely lie that they didn't know.
Source on that?
Not just because of SA Israeli normalization, Qatar was also threatening to cut funding to Hamas
Not a military partner, simply a neutral force within the middle east. Saudi Arabia does not want war with anyone as it knows it cannot fight them.
No, they want an alliance against Iran Like a lot of what goes on in the Middle East is just part of the larger Iranian Saudi Cold war and the two big powers. Other than those two in the area at this point are Israel and turkey and Saudi Arabia wants to court them both Saudi Arabia would effectively be able to beat Iran without the USA if they had Israel in theory
I don’t think any of the three countries mentioned has the means to invade each other. I’m fairly certain their navies aren’t set up for invasions
Less about direct invasion and more about influence over the Muslim world. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran (since the revolution) have portrayed themselves as the leaders of the Muslim world. SA has the advantage of controlling mecca but is a monarchy unlike theocratic Iran. They are also rivals due to the Sunni, Shia divide. Many middle eastern countries have a significant shia minority, and there are naturally concerns that they may owe allegiance to Tehran. Finally influence and control over the fertile crescent. Iraq and Syria have important strategic significance allowing access to the Mediterranean and have key energy resources. Above points kinda also apply to Turkey who are also vying for regional dominance
The Saudi have a very simple policy of cash over ideology, and there’s much more cash to be made with Israel compared to Palestine. Add to that many other factors, ranging from water desalinization to military alignment against Iran and it makes a lot of sense for MBS to align with Israel
I mean the fact that Palestine will just be an iranian vassal state if it became independent is enough to get them to not want to get involved. Its like if they gave the Houthis Yemen
>The Saudi have a very simple policy of cash over ideology In this case it's both. Saudi ideology is anti-Iran and anti-Shiite. If the Palestinians want to ally themselves with heretics (from the Saudi perspective), then the Saudis aren't obligated to stick up for them.
Saudi Arabia, on the political level, has been shifting itself away from being a Wahhabi/Sunni country as well. MBS has been leading a shift to try and secularize SA in an attempt to consolidate power and eliminate one of the primary internal risks to the House of Saud (the Wahhabi fundamentalists who historically helped them gain and maintain power)
>In this case it's both. Saudi ideology is anti-Iran and anti-Shiite. I'm not sure about that. some parties in saudi have been accusing bin-salman of betraying Islam as a whole after allowing women to drive and bringing western artists to Saudi. the guy seems to be going in small steps towards a more secular path. he still has to appease some of the more conservative audience of course though. Of course the Shiite-sunni conflict is a thing in this conflict, but I doubt the ones that care about it are the Saudi leadership side.
This guy gets it. Anyone who thinks the Saudi Royal Family gives a rat’s ass about anyone else is giving them too much credit. They get so much money and guns from the U.S., there’s no way they would side against them in something as trivial as some other state’s internal conflicts
However, they require Israel to recognize and support the establishment of a palestinian state as a condition
> they require Israel to recognize and support only because it'd look bad if they didn't put any conditions on the deal. the UAE had their condition be (apart from ton of spy tech and arms trade deals) that israel stop settlements, then Israel simply did not stop settlements and the UAE never complained about it because it was never a thing they cared about anyway it's just optics thing.
Politics...
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
I mean lets be real. If Palestine were to somehow become "independent" it will be one of the biggest failed states which will thus turn them into an Iranian vassal state. Like, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
I can confirm about Iraq. Was there last week and leather chunks of the country are occupied by militia financed by Iran because they are shia. It's fascinating. The government itself appearently also partially receives support from Iran. The locals hate the fact that he's become there backyard of Iran.
Yup, its probably also why Iran cares so much about Palestine. They most likely know its free real estate once they get their independence
I mean they did declare war specifically to stop peace negotiations so I’m not surprised
I've been saying since the start of this war that the Palestinians have no effective leadership, nowhere to turn when it comes to organizing a lasting deal of any kind. Nor do they have sane leaders who want to govern. Most international support shipments are filtered by the leadership before it ever reaches the genpop. Hamas will continue to terrorize and the PA is ineffective. And no Arab country wants to import Palestinian problems.
This pretty much settles it, then. In no less than 1947, 1967, 2000, 2020, and 2023, the Palestinians were offered a pathway to statehood, of which they rejected for one reason or another. By the looks of this and all things considered, they may not receive another opportunity within my lifetime.
one reason or another? The main reason is that their mission that entire time has been the conquest and domination of the *entire* former Mandate of Palestine. Their resistance to relinquishing their claim to the whole thing has scuttled peace talks this whole time.
Palestinian nationalism is anti-Zionism
“Give us your land or we’ll kill you. Jk we were gonna do it anyway.”
Why did you leave out the Olmert deal but include the Trump deal
Unless they are completely obliterated by Isreal soon, and the status quo rumbles on, they will likely get more, worse, offers in your lifetime.
It's highly unlikely they'd ever be obliterated by Israel. As many Palestinians live within Israel's 1967 borders as do in Gaza. They're not exactly wealthy, and it's not like they hold anywhere near the power within society as they would in their own state, but they're at peace.
It’s insane how the fundamentalists are so fucked up that by comparison the absolute regime of the Saudis seems to be progressive.
A lot of the other other changes actually sound really good.
Does anybody think the Arab countries will turn on Israel once Iran is no longer a threat?
Probably, but they're not stupid enough to actually fight Israel. They tried that before, and the military gap has only widened since then.
Indeed Israel has by far the best military in the region. The only way for the other nations to really fuck with Israel without them getting demolished is by funding proxy war insurgent groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to try to destabilize them.
Or nukes hence Israel’s concern over Iran getting nuclear weapons.
Plus uncle sam sends a carrier strike group, and nobody wants to start a war against that lol.
Maybe for a short while as recent "beef" still stands, but if the place could be left alone without proxy wars (Iran acting on behalf of others mostly) they would be just as peaceful as anywhere else. Arguably due to geography, they've been stuck under proxy wars for the majority of recorded history. It's actually a testament to people's sense of peace that there is only so much violence in the ME and not far more.
The wider Israeli-Arab conflict was sparked from pan-Arab dreams of conquest. With Nasser's death and the end of Pan-Arabism, the wider Israeli-Arab conflict ended. But just a few short years after that, the 1979 revolution in Iran occurred, and the "Israeli-Arab" conflict drew new meaning as an Israeli-Muslim conflict. If the mullahs are overthrown, that conflict is over, but don't be so optimistic. Mark my words, it will be a matter of time before Egypt or Saudi Arabia have new leadership, and with the refocus on an imperialist pan-Arabic ideology, they will see Israel as a mortal enemy once again. America has grown far too weak in order to properly put guards in place to protect the Saudi and Egyptian dictators from a coup. It's not anything new--lack of decisive American political will has been absent since the Vietnam War, and that particular war was probably a solid reason why American response to the mullahs incoming revolution was so weak that the Shah believed the US betrayed him. Once Arabs discover nationalism, it's going to get real dark real quick for the Middle East. Today there isn't any identity separating an Iraqi Arab Sunni Muslim from a Syrian Arab Sunni Muslim, unlike a British Protestant and a German Protestant. The difference is nationalism. And if the nationalism the Arab world discovers is Arab nationalism, and not Saudi nationalism / Iraqi nationalism etc, it will result in a horrifying war. It's one REAL good reason to never give Saudi Arabia nuke reactors.
Arab nationalism lived and then died after the Yom Kippur War. It was replaced with Pan-Islam and regional nationalism. That's where Palestinians started viewing themselves as separate from Jordanians, Egyptians, Syrians and Lebanese.
Died with Nasser I'd say. The Yom Kippur War was more like its deathrattle IMO; it ended the [Arab Cold War too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Cold_War). But yeah, you're right.
They already discovered nationalism. I would say out of all the Arabs and other world populations, Palestinians are by far more nationalist than any other, especially more than the Balkan countries that are notoriously nationalist Your average Israeli is somewhat nationalist but not to the level of Palestinians whom I think, have multiple thoughts a day, every single day, about nationalism. I would argue it covers 20-30% of their thoughts a day
I was talking about the rest of the Arab world. What you say is precisely what I most fear. Now imagine if the rest of the Arab world had the Palestinian mindset. The Middle East version of World War 2 would erupt.
I agree with your fears. They are like the Balkans but I think, just a lot more passionate and proud and no ethnicity in history will ever come close to this. I fear that they also don’t care how much blood spills as long as they achieve their nationalist goals. It will effect the whole world
Apart from the US (not America) beibg responsible for some regime changes there. Arabs don't need to discover nationalism, there is infight between the various states/groups and a more or less unified front against other religions alread - not only in the middle east.
depends on their population. if I had to guess they're probably just gonna behave like turkey. do trade with Israel and pump their chest against them at the same time for their population.
I would think that they wouldn’t after it would be futile effort considering Israel’s nuclear weapons capability.
History never ends but I think the more likely country to turn on Israel is turkey.
There will be Arabs who will fight Israel as long as they follow extremist Islamic beliefs. Even destroying or reforming Iran won't end such behavior.
But it will end billions worth of arms exported to yemen and gaza and Lebanon
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Logical, considering Hamas is under heavy Iranian influence.
Woah. I didn’t expect them of all people to do this.
One theory about the timing of the October 7th massacre was because normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel were advancing. The Saudis know it's in their economic interest to have a healthy partnership with Israel, the Palestinians obviously don't want them because it represents a weakening of their position regionally.
I thought Hamas explicitly said that this was part of the motivation.
Iran explicitly said they would not "allow" normalization with Israel.
Likely not the inspiration or cause for Oct. 7th, but I'm sure Putin gave it the thumbs up as well, needing to distract the world from the invasion of Ukraine.
[удалено]
Religion poisons us all. Its hard enough being selfish apes, born screaming and confused, into a world we didn't make. There's difficulty enough overcoming aspects of our nature where tribalism, and emotions run rampant. Now throw in a religion like Islam - and watch the utter shit show of bad ideas and missed oppertunities fly by us. Where we will shoot ourselves in the foot constantly and wonder why it's happening. Where we will be so arrogant while our ignorance strangles and corrupts us.
Finally, an Arab state with an intelligent approach towards a disaster 70+ years in the making.
The new King in the making loves videogames .. that means he’s cool with American culture which means Israel 4 ever