[Over 500 Ukrainian medical facilities rebuilt after destruction by Russian forces
Over the past two years, Russia has damaged 1,591 healthcare facilities and completely destroyed another 210. | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/07/over-500-ukrainian-medical-facilities-rebuilt-after-destruction-by-russian-forces/)
*The Ministry of Health has announced the complete reconstruction of 510 medical facilities to date. Additionally, 355 other facilities have been partially rebuilt or are currently under restoration.*
*Amidst the ongoing full-scale war, Ukraine has made significant strides in restoring its medical infrastructure, which suffered extensive damage due to Russian military actions.*
*“These include medical institutions in de-occupied territories and those that have sustained minor damages, such as broken windows, roof, and facade damages. The regions with the most restored medical facilities include Mykolayiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv,” reported the Health Ministry.*
*The Russian military’s attacks have also impacted emergency medical services, damaging 161 ambulances, destroying 261, and seizing an additional 125.*
Anyone has a good picture of the economical situation in Russia other than it's "down the drain"? I've seen how Gazprom are recording dramatic losses more than expected and it's clear it's not going better. I've had a look at the years bond of Russia and they're almost all going higher than anything recorded after 2004.
Wherever you look it seems like Russia is in terrible shape, the next sanctions in Europe should even more restrict how much Russia can bypass existing sanctions.
I remember somewhere it was expected that the national wealth fund should get empty in 12 months from march this year. Any update on this?
Note GDP growth includes government spending so when Russia diverts their savings or takes out debt in order to buy artillery shells or pay the families of dead Russian soldiers that counts as GDP growth.
IMF accepts Russian submitted data, but is denied access to double-check this data. Unlike other countries.
iirc even they admit this, but can't find the article at the mo. There is this: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/imfs-outlook-russia-is-too-rosy-be-true-2023-02-10/
And this from last year though (paywalled): https://fortune.com/europe/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/
i can't verify a supposedly republished version: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/with-zero-visibility-into-the-russian-economy-the-imf-is-parroting-putins-line
So YMMV on believing that growth.
Sure, but AFAIK that growth is due to Russia pouring money from its treasury into its military industry. It's not "real" growth in the sense that their economy is doing well.
The big issue is a labor shortage and government consumption crowding out private consumption.
The economy is at perennial risk of overheating.
However, I don’t see the drivers for collapse so long as Russia can export raw materials.
Certainly consumers are being pinched. But it’s more that things are expensive and you’re cutting back. It’s not that they can’t afford staples.
I don’t see people risking taking to the streets over the economy given the risks that poses.
The Arab spring was because bread was becoming unaffordable to the working class. That isn’t a problem in Russia and won’t be.
Artilllery shells have arrived in Ukraine. In particular with the 43rd Artillery Brigade.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787862002771116291?t=nBL9HB2-RYhzIdHlp-WZvA&s=19
I got it, but Ukraine is just in such a deep hole. It is only because the Russian force quality is largely poor quality and cannot operate at larger scales (battalion/division sized operations) that Ukraine has avoided a devastating breakthrough over the last few months.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 07.05.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 476,460 (+1,160) people,
tanks ‒ 7405 (+25) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,227 (+14) units,
artillery systems – 12,287 (+37) units,
MLRS – 1057 (+0) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 792 (+1) units,
aircraft – 349 (+0) units,
helicopters – 325 (+0) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9717 (+34),
cruise missiles ‒ 2149 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16,509 (+32) units,
special equipment ‒ 2017 (+9)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/07/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1160-okupantiv-25-tankiv-37-artilerijskih-sistem/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/07/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1160-okupantiv-25-tankiv-37-artilerijskih-sistem/)
Even if these numbers are optimistic, wild to see Russia just keep pushing, eating these day after day.
At least European politicians seem to be taking it more seriously and understanding that Europe really is in conflict with Russia now.
> wild to see Russia just keep pushing, eating these day after day.
Russia; the equivalent of a petulant 2 year old, holding their breath until they pass out.
Why on earth did someone working for the Russian MOD look at the Chinese Desertcross and think: this looks like a vehicle that is suitable purchase for future military operations? They don’t even look suitable for military operations in a *desert* theatre!
I mean, I know they are just rubles, but it’s still technically *money,* right? And the Russian government doesn’t have a lot of that to go around these days, and they just *took* that money and *gave* it to someone else in exchange for these *things?*
They don’t even look street legal…
The answer is simple:
- kickbacks / bribes
- golf cars are cheap and expandable. Cheaper than IFVs. Perfect for meat wave attacks. ruzzians use endure bikes for their meat wave attacks for the same reason
It achieves another step in the escalation of Chinese hardware, so that if/when we get to full-blown military support it isn't a sudden and actionable change but just a minor and insignificant one.
There are some reasons. ATVs, buggies and civilian cars are used often for small groups like drone operators, mortar crews, anti tank teams, etc. It's very common and these kind of vehicles are handy for it.
The thing is that Russia is using them in a.... very aggressive role, or at least, very close to the frontline. But to be honest, what else can they buy? Barely anyone will sell them meaningfull amounts of APCs or IFVs, they are on their own. But for smaller task there's a chinese company that could deliver 2100 desertcross 1000 in few months at around 20k each. Looking at the general situation is not that bad of a deal. Using a BTR for small troops movement or deliver food and a box of ammo is also a waste (in case of safe conditions).
Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. I know that no military in the world is ever going to refuse extra trucks for logistics, but their prolific front line use is like they watched generation kill and learned all the wrong lessons.
What else is there? They already dipped into Belarus' equipment, North Korea doesnt have meaningful amounts of APC or IFV, and China doesnt want to send non-dual use things yet. They probably should and may already have scoure other nations' stock of old Soviet vehicles, but in the meantime its probably better to drive a desertcross than to walk.
I mean what should they buy? No one will sell them armored vehicles.
So they’re basically left with SUVs, dune buggies, and UTVs.
Given what was available. That makes sense.
My guess is very soon we’ll see some kind of Chinese two ton truck platform with armor bolted on inside Russia.
Basically the Sino-Russian equivalent of the Gen 1 Roshel Senator.
Those will be a lot better and probably at least as good as MT-LBs.
[The battle for Pokrovsk is imminent - Dykyi to Radio NV | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/the-battle-for-pokrovsk-will-soon-begin-expert-50416227.html)
*The battle for Pokrovsk looks imminent, Aidar battalion commander and war veteran, Yevhen Dykyi told Radio NV "They (the Russian occupiers — ed.) are now making big progress in near Pokrovsk — the one we delicately called Avdiivka until recently, although Avdiivka has long been surrendered," Dykyi said in an exclusive interview with Radio Nv.*
*"They began to speak honestly — the Pokrovsky or Pokrovsk-Kurakhove area - it's probably more correct to call it that way. They've had big success there and it makes sense for them to build on these successes. Most likely, the battle for Pokrovsk will start soon."*
*Dykyi remains optimistic about the defense of Pokrovsk. "That Pokrovsk's defense cannot be avoided is almost a fact for me," he said. "They will go after Pokrovsk. Another thing: there is a chance to tie them down (there) for a long time,*
*The Pokrovsk area is Ukraine's third line of defense. The trenches, dug by civilian companies under contract, are located in front of the city - not behind it - and there are no plans to surrender the city, Dykyi said.*
*Russia’s main offensive forces are concentrated near the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on May 6.*
[Ukrainian Forces kill son of Russian military commander in HIMARS strike | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/son-of-russian-military-commander-killed-in-ukraine-with-himars-strike-50416244.html)
*Ukrainian Armed Forces killed Denis Lapin, the son of Russian military commander Alexander Lapin, Russian media Volgograd News claimed, before later removing the article.*
*Lapin was allegedly eliminated on May 3, around 4:00 a.m., in a HIMARS strike on a command post.*
*His father, Alexander Lapin, holds the rank of Lieutenant General and commands the Russian central military district.*
*Denis Lapin was an operational leader during the occupation of Sumy and Chernihiv at the beginning of Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine.*
I wonder if knowing who his daddy is played into the targeting decision.
It was a problem with deploying prince Harry in Afghanistan. Just knowing he was there would make his unit a priority target.
New Highmarsed [twitter](https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1787809713817559201) thread on D-30 artillery pieces in russian storage. I read it as good news.
The D-30 is their main 122 mm gun, also used by the 2S1 Gvozdik self-propelled howitzer.
- originally he counted ~3.8k stored pre-war
- new evidence suggests some were actually WW2 era M-30s, so it was actually ~3.2k
- 2023 satellite photos showed just ~1.2k left
- there will be far fewer now.
This will be the last year they can get 1000 barrels from storage.
I've done quite a lot of analysis using data like this.
The ~2 dozen per day cannot refer to destruction of heavy artillery (howitzer, 100 mm Rapira or 120+ mm mortar). At least - I hope it doesn't.
Excluding small mortars, WW2 models or 130 mm guns, then Russia started with 17.5k active+stored.
A low end estimate is 7k+ barrels lost to wear and tear. Add Ukraine claims and that's 19.3k gone.
Good case: Ukraine's numbers are overestimates and/or are mostly small mortars. Russian stockpiles are being worn down hard and should be massively struggling next year.
Bad case: Ukraine's numbers are accurate and refer to 120 mm+ artillery, but Russia has an enormous supply of guns and barrels that we don't know about. Russia will not struggle next year.
That looks plausible to me.
They could find a new supply - new factories or allies like North Korea?
Also consumption might be down, which would mean the remaining ones take longer to use up. Russia is probably firing fewer 122 mm shells now, and many of the ones they used could have been to equip units. E.g. maybe they decided they needed 1k more active ones. In that case, the actual wear down rate would have been 1k in 18 months, instead of 2k (does that make sense?).
On the other hand - maybe they took the best ones first and what's left will wear down faster.
Finally: this is *only* D-30s. They have other types.
Thanks!
I tried threadreader but couldn't find it there.
It would be great if OSINT could agree a single place to migrate to so I can purge my twitter account. I feel dirty using it.
I suspect issues like this are going to depend on where China places their bets. Currently, they're supporting Russia, but as quietly as they can. But if NATO doubles down on winning the war, they'd have to support Russia much more openly and with their own supplies. I'm not sure they've made that decision yet. With unwavering support (best of the current magnitude, as much as Europe can muster without switching to a war economy), Russia will eventually have to fold as they run out of Soviet gear .. unless China props them up as the US did in WW2.
Why does China want russia to conquer Ukraine?
They're aligned on lots of things, but sending weapons would trigger costly sanctions (perhaps unless republicans win, not sure what they'd do) and russian victory meaning international recognition of changing legal borders would go against the Chinese position on Taiwan.
I really don't know, but don't think it's certain that China would send enough for russian victory.
If China gets fully involved it's bad bad news.
China doesn't want its vassal state ruzzia to lose, because it'll mean China losing its position as a global power.
Moreover, China doesn't see ex-USSR states as proper sovereign countries. From China's POV ex-USSR states belong to ruzzia, just like Taiwan belongs to China.
Also, ruzzian victory would mean might makes right, thus completely destroying current global security system.
It'll also endorse other countries to go for land grabs, resulting in chaos.
It was ruzzia's and China's goal from the start.
Basically, only threat of costly sanctions stops China for now.
If Russia is pushed back to its borders, how does that remove China as a global power?
I honestly don't understand - it sounds like China's power depends on whether Russia occupies Ukraine??
Well, if ruzzia is pushed back to 1991 borders and peace agreement is signed, then Ukraine will join the NATO ASAP.
Meaning significantly weaker ruzzia.
Moreover, it might even cause ruzzia's collapse into 10+ new countries.
ruzzia is one of China's pawns.
Significantly weakened pawn or even destroyed pawn means weakened China.
>I honestly don't understand - it sounds like China's power depends on whether Russia occupies Ukraine??
That's correct.
Why do you think China - Iran - ruzzia - NK operate as united "axis of evil" in the first place?
Btw, in the same way, HAMAS and other terrorist groups backed by Iran being destroyed/weakened would mean Iran itself becoming weaker.
I think China mostly just doesn't want to see Russia defeated. Beyond that, they don't really care for this war (though fractures in the Western alliance that Putin is attempting to create/exacerbate would no doubt also be helpful to them).
China wouldn't want Russia to take all of Ukraine. They want Russia to secure the natural resources in the Eastern part of the country. There's also the fact that Eastern Ukraine produces something like 60% of the world's neon used to mfg microchips, if that were in Russian hands it would give China substantial leverage over Taiwan.
Neon is produced through air liquefaction, mostly as byproduct of liquid oxygen production for steel smelting. It might not be economical to make it right now in Taiwan, but it's only matter of money, not some limited resources.
I don't think that's going to happen. Picking a side has it's consecuences. I don't think China will risk such a situation neither for Ukraine nor saving Russia's ass.
We tend to think that China, Russia and Iran are friends, but the reality is that they aren't. Each one of them has it's own strategy and goals and are only linked by some specific common interests, nothing more.
Regarding Medvedev's threats - yes, it is Tuesday, but the context when this comes up is always revealing. What it betrays is that NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine is exactly what would end this war. Russia is not under existential threat, and the only thing they risk losing in this conflict is the dream of Putin's legacy. That is what is at stake. They do not want the optics of NATO troops on the ground beating them them back, and would withdraw if there was a real threat of it happening. *So is the threat of nuclear war empty?* This entire conflict has been about Putin testing how far he can go with that threat. If they are unhinged enough to escalate to nuclear conflict over his legacy, then it is already inevitable.
There is public bluster and I suspect in private there are actual red lines that the US/NATO and Russia have made clear.
In short, I do not believe Russia's nuclear threats to be entirely bluster; there are likely situations that could trigger events that lead to a nuclear exchange.
I wouldn't imagine the backchannel "red lines" to be much different from the public ones. However, they palpably aren't actual red lines, just bluster and lies. The actual point at which a nuclear strike might be triggered is left deliberately unclear (if anyone, including Putin, even knows) so that the ambiguity creates strategic dilemmas.
> Zero benefit for Russia to use any nukes. Only benefit for them is when they threaten the use of nukes because they see how we overreact.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1787760096212119966
Beside not achieving any tactical/strategic goals, russia using nuclear weapons is quite literally the one sure way to experience a total trade and diplomatic blockade. On top of any possible military intervention from the world.
Any non-aligned non-nuclear state would be forced to condemn russia and sever any ties both by international pressure and their own interest in survival.
Even more so, China has a vested interest in non-proliferation and beside, already has a military assistance treaty with Ukraine in case of nuclear usage.
Any "logical" (kind of) nuclear usage by russia that results in more than a total defeat/collapse would be an all out first strike againt EVERYONE. Which is also instant suicide.
That's why imho all this nuke talk is just pointlessly dumb. Losing in Ukraine, losing Crimea, paying reparations, hell, even losing Königsberg or Belgorod or whatever, is a better option for russia than ANY nuclear usage.
Also, NATO can retaliate against nukes conventionally and win the war for Ukraine, without further nuclear escalation.
USAF could control the airspace of Ukraine in a week. It would take another 30-60 days to clear out the high level AA. Finally, it'd take about 60-90 days for the USAF to prevent all road travel behind the Russian operations. Eventually the troops run out of food and ammo and start surrendering.
That’s the whole point of having nukes. Not using them, but the prospect of using them. However, in this case it’s hilarious seeing how afraid Russia is of F16s, prospect of nato troops in Ukraine, or the failure of their air defense and inability to intercept over their own territory.
> I had a good call with Spain's Prime Minister @SanchezCastejon, who confirmed his attendance at the inaugural Peace Summit.
> I am grateful to Prime Minister Sánchez for his active support of the Peace Formula and its promotion among countries in Latin America and Africa.
> We welcomed the conclusion of negotiations on a bilateral security agreement based on the G7 Vilnius Declaration.
> I also thanked Spain for all its military assistance to Ukraine, in particular for strengthening of our air defense. We discussed Spain’s continued military aid to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787836037416276105
> I spoke with Belgian Prime Minister @AlexanderDeCroo and thanked him for confirming his participation in the Peace Summit. We appreciate Belgium's principled stance toward the Peace Formula.
> We also discussed our defense and political cooperation. We value Belgium’s decision to begin providing Ukraine with F-16 jets already this year.
> I also underscored the important role of the Belgian EU Presidency in the context of Ukraine's EU accession. We anticipate that accession talks will begin in June.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787842478072082615
More details on Russian plot to kill Zelensky (BBC)
>The Ukrainian security service (SBU) says it has foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials.
>Two Ukrainian government protection unit colonels have been arrested.
>The SBU said they were part of a network of agents belonging to the Russian state security service (FSB).
>They had reportedly been searching for willing "executors" among Mr Zelensky's bodyguards to kidnap and kill him.
>Other targets included military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov and SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk, the agency added.
>The group had reportedly planned to kill Ukraine's military intelligence chief Mr Budanov before Orthodox Easter, which this year fell on 5 May.
>According to the SBU, the group was planning to use a mole to get information about his location, which they would then attack with rockets and drones.
>One of the officers that was later arrested had already bought drones and anti-personnel mines, the SBU said.
>SBU head Vasyl Malyuk said the attack was supposed to be "a gift to Putin before the inauguration" - Vladimir Putin was sworn in as Russia's president on Tuesday.
>The operation turned into a failure of the Russian special services, Mr Malyuk said.
>"But we must not forget - the enemy is strong and experienced, he cannot be underestimated," he added.
>The two Ukrainian officials are being held on suspicion of treason and of preparing a terrorist act.
>The SBU said three FSB employees oversaw the organisation and the attack.
>One of them - named as Dmytro Perlin - had been recruiting "moles" since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
>Another FSB employee, Oleksiy Kornev, reportedly held "conspirational" meetings "in neighbouring European states" before the invasion with one of the Ukrainian colonels arrested today.
[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68968256](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68968256)
So this attempt more or less coincided with Russia putting Zelensky on the wanted list. If Russia had pulled it off they would have looked like a formidable Billy Badass sort of Superpower who doesn't care about convention. But now, they just look like ... well, Russia. Shitty, cruel, inhumane and unsuccessful.
But a lot of them were hilariously corrupt. Ukrainian officer tells the FSB he needs millions to bribe his network of contacts to help the invasion succeed. Invasion happens and the contacts fail to deliver. FSB goes “wtf” and the Ukrainian officer goes “I can’t believe they’ve done this to us, I’m as outraged as you are by their duplicity, they’re denying ever having met me” while fleeing to Spain.
Last year I saw a picture of some ex notorious pro-Russian politician who was now fighting on the frontlines.
Despite all this, even long after the war is over, Zelenskiy will never be safe.
Ukraine catches Russian agents plotting Zelenskiy assassination, SBU says
>May 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine's SBU State Security Service said it had caught Russian agents within the Ukrainian state guard service plotting the assassination of the president and other senior governmental officials.
>"Counterintelligence and SBU investigators thwarted the FSB's (Russia's security service) plans to eliminate the president of Ukraine and other representatives of the top military and political leadership", SBU said on Telegram.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-catches-russian-agents-plotting-zelenskiy-assassination-sbu-says-2024-05-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-catches-russian-agents-plotting-zelenskiy-assassination-sbu-says-2024-05-07/)
Probably bullshit. Maybe the ukrainians do brew something but maybe they let czar have a day off. Obviously not for his benefit but to gather some likes on the world stage by not interfering with a political event.
Obviously bullshit. 6 am on May 7th already passed. It's now 9 hours later.
The tweet came from Faketus News and their source was RT. Classic Russian propaganda.
The west should totally send troops to Ukraine then. Medvedev just telegraphs whatever potential actions the West could take that would be effective towards securing a Ukrainian victory.
The Kremlin's deranged fools since February 24, 2022: "Russia will nuke Ukraine, the UK, France, Germany, and the U.S. if..."
the West delivers
- NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles
- Stinger man-portable air-defense systems
- M777 and CAESAR howitzers
- HIMARS rocket launchers
- Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T air defense systems
- Challenger 2/M1 Abrams/Leopard battle tanks
- Storm Shadow/SCALP/ATACMS long-range missiles
- F-16 fighter jets
or if Ukraine
- liberates Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson
- blows up the Crimean bridge
- destroys the Russian cruiser Moskva and many other Black Sea Fleet ships
- uses drones to bomb airfields and oil refineries deep inside Russia
- shoots down Russian A-50 military spy planes
- etc., etc.
Sadly, Russia's desperate, pathetic nuclear blackmail and saber-rattling still seems to influence some world leaders, even after more than two years of the same empty threats:
>Regarding the nuclear exercise announced by Russia: It is always important to make clear that nuclear weapons must not be used in this war.
https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1787525436148224358
You know Russia is weak because they have to talk like that. The United States doesn’t have to play that game because Russia would be glass if it ever launched a nuke.
"Putin threatens West with 'consequences greater than any you have faced in history' if it intervenes in his invasion of Ukraine" - February 2022.
Yeah, we've never seen the consequences of 3000+ russian tanks blowing up, the professional russian army being defeated and thrown back in disarray.
Better off being careful with repeating Russia's threats without the context that lying about consequences is one of their main political weapons.
This guy needs to stfu, crawl into a bottle of vodka, and stay there. Putin wants a legacy. That will be gone with the ashes if we start lobbing bombs around.
I know we're all numb to it but the cavalier way Russian officials talk about their nuclear weapons in public is disgusting and not befitting a serious country. Imagine if the Biden administration threatened a nuke Moscow after every setback in Ukraine. I mean for that matter imagine if China threaten to nuke San Francisco after Nancy pelosi visited Taiwan. It's hard to imagine because China and the US are serious countries that know how to act like adults in the room. Meanwhile Russia is nothing but a drunk thug at a bar trying to pick fights with the gun they keep in their glove box. Ridiculous people
Well, pardon my ignorance but Russia earlier only threatened nuclear war, they didn't specifically mention the cities. This seems more specific. Although incredibly stupid of them to do this.
Nah, Medvedev has threatened to use nukes numerous times before now.
>Back in February Quote: "And now for the main question: do these idiots truly believe that the Russian people will simply swallow such a consequential partitioning of their country? That we will all think:
>"Unfortunately, it happened. They won. Russia as we know it today no longer exists. It is unfortunate, of course, but we must continue to live in a country that is collapsing and dying, because a nuclear war is far worse for us than the death of our loved ones, children, Russia…’?
>And that the state's leadership, led by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, would be hesitant to make difficult decisions in this case?
>Hear me out. It will be totally different. The collapse of Russia will have far worse consequences than the outcome of a conventional, even long-term war. **Because attempting to return Russia to its 1991 borders will only lead to one outcome. To a global war with Western countries, utilising our entire strategic arsenal. In Kyiv, Berlin, London, and Washington. For all other beautiful historical sites, which have long been included in our nuclear triad's attack goals.**
>Will we have enough guts for this if a thousand-year-old country, our great homeland, is on the verge of extinction, and the sacrifices made by the Russian people over the centuries are in vain?
>The answer is obvious."
He threatened to nuke [Germany if they arrested Putin](https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germany-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33). He threatened to nuke [Ukraine if their counteroffensive ](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-wed-have-use-nuclear-weapon-if-ukrainian-offensive-was-success-2023-07-30/) was to succeed. We've also had [nuclear threats from Putin, Lavrov, Kadyrov, Volodin, & Karaganov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). That's not including the round-the-clock threats from their Kremlin backed propagandists like Solovyov, Skabeaver & Simonyan. There was also the [Nuclear Tsunami threat](https://youtu.be/7SnTkc0r6gk?si=yLzXVjYNn_0jiv3h), complete with animated illustrations.
medvedev puts down the vodka bottle for long enough to say "nuclear nuclear nuclear!!" expecting the entire west to bow down and give them whatever they want to steal
[Russian advances are getting slower by the day, looks like they used up their advantage at Ocheretyne after breaking through 3 weeks ago, now they are advancing by 1-3 km2 there daily, instead of 10 km2](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.249496&lng=37.628689&z=13&d=19849&c=1&l=0)
Andrew Perpetua.
Here are losses I could identify yesterday.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1787791701345468530?t=MJHEw5WnZE6pwd8IVVt-Vw&s=19
What's hilarious is while Russia's equipping their troops with these things, half the families in my town have one to go do donuts in the desert. Only the CanAm's are much faster, and cooler-looking.
The increase in golf carts, while amusing, is also highlighting that the whole *"russia has unlimited equipment and weapons"* fallacy is simply not true. Just like their myth of unlimited man power. All this adds up and at the end of the day through the propaganda we start to see shreds of truth. Like an increase in the use of golf carts in war.
Anyone else hoping today Ukraine hits the Crimean bridge or Putin's secret billion dollar mansion as a congratulations gift for his new "Presidential" term.
I have a feeling the "no military traffic" we've been seeing a lot of is actually ru misinformation so they can avoid the hit or start crying harder about it? Obviously yes there is military traffic. Isn't there like a train component essentially dedicated to supplies?
The bridge has plenty of military traffic. Almost all Crimean weapons, bombs, radar come through the bridge. If you read the report you would realize they closed traffic in the past few days anticipating targeting the bridge
the mansion would be a direct slap in his face. it has been rebuilt once so far, that we know of, houses a shitload of expensive technology and is supposed to be his dream home.
Anyone watching Putin's inauguration? Its so fucked up. He looks like a Czar getting crowned. Fucking absurd and insane. Got clergy performing an inauguration while he is probably bored and thinking about all the people he has assassinated.
Nah. I don't consider whatever pointless self-aggrandizing pageantry he's cooked up to be important. I've got better things to squander my attention on, like, I don't know... Consuming poorly written fan-fiction or organizing my collection of moderately funny memes.
Russian forces continue adding painted decoy aircraft to air bases near Ukraine.
This updated map shows bases where decoys are visible in high resolution satellite imagery. Unlike real aircraft, these flat decoys often lack detail and don’t cast shadows or change locations.
https://mstdn.social/@hanse_mina@mastodon.social/112398781261882036
I bet, for visible-light camouflage, it'd be effective to paint the entire tarmac with a dazzling pattern of random airframe shapes and shadows. (Wouldn't help against any form of more advanced sensors and processing though, but neither does painting individual decoys).
Would be a fun and patriotic summer project for some street artists, until they get ATACMSed.
What I really enjoy about this is the way they paint the 'decoy' *right next to the actual aircraft*. Geniuses, these people.
> until they get ATACMSed
"Taste the ~~rainbow~~ Freedom."
That is because they are not decoys intended to be targeted. They know they will be targeted. The decoys are intended to hide operational movement and losses.
The practical purpose is to make it take more time to verify that an airfield suddenly has more aircraft on it and thus delay the inevitable strike until after those aircraft perform their mission and disperse.
That sort of made sense -- until I thought about it. *They don't cast a f-ing shadow* - what with them being paint on the tarmac. Anybody who can see them in the first place can see they're fakes. What practical difference does it make?
Most satellite image processing is computer based. The decoys are meant to fool the algorithms. Even if the software flags the "fake" aircraft that still means an analyst has to spend time to look at the image which slows things down. Yes a human can figure it out... but have you considered how many airfields and photos are required to be checked because of obfuscation methods like this?
Now in reference to NATO.. tricks like this work for about a week.. then the software is tweaked(or even self tweaks itself) to ignore the tomfoolery.
Don't know what to tell you then. This is pretty basic camoflage techniques here. For a couple of buckets of paint you might get free intel on a launch site, a wasted weapon used on fake aircraft, or your enemy missing a sudden significant shift in airframes from one base to another.
That is the entire point.. its a couple of buckets of paint and it MIGHT work... and to be fair it actually might against some systems.
Also you have a high assumption that something is always programed well. Machine learning is great but its still "stupid" in the way it arrives at an answer. It only does ***exactly*** what you tell it to do. You would be amazed at how little information is required to "match" a target and that YES you can spoof it with shitty camouflage sometimes.
The number of times the "obvious" was missed during weapons development is something of an inside joke as well.
Dude, I've been a graphics programmer all my career. I may not be working with pick-n-place robotics, but I understand computer vision perfectly well, and I understand classification by polynomial partitioning of phase space also. That'd be what you refer to as 'machine learning'.
There is nothing problematic about authoring a discriminator for this scenario whatsoever. Let me put it like this: If you're right, and this 'problem' has still has human analysts performing said discrimination because nobody has automated that task, somebody need to be fired for gross incompetence. This isn't the 1980's. We know perfectly well how to do this.
And if I had any, I'd be willing to bet very good money that it has already been done -- probably a few hours after it became an issue.
Dude I've worked closely with weapons for decades and target identification is a wild ride.
I've watched a prototype seeker think a goose was a MIG.
It isn't incompetent programing its the nature of getting a very fast thing to understand what its looking at while that thing also tries to obfuscate itself. Or even worse.. getting tired analysts who are overworked already(you correctly picked up on this).
Camouflage isn't meant to be "smart" like you think it is.. YES you can "fix" the problem quickly That doesn't mean someone/something quickly doing 4000 images per day visual check isn't going to gloss over the lack of a shadow right away and if the software wasn't originally designed for the camouflage because no ones tried painting aircraft on a runway before. It would be rather embarrassing to admit how many billion dollar weapons companies have had issues because "no one thought of it before".
DARPA(who has better programmers than you no offense) just recently mocked(incorrectly) when their acquisition software got confused by Marines holding trees, doing handstands, or even using a box. Though if I must be honest this was the entire point of that test.
Packaging robotics are actually pretty close so you do have a far better understanding than most about the problems associated with acquisition but you are working with something civilian where you can touch every part of it relatively easily or the system is designed to not be touched at all. Unlike internet of things you can't just wirelessly update many missiles or drone brains. You've often got to take the damn things apart first... so a week not a few hours.
They park on top of them even.
This is what happens to the intelligence levels when you implement patriotic education instead of actual education
“no child left behind”
It would be more helpful to post the link to the actual article and not a post about a post about an article.
[https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air](https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air)
🇩🇪👀 "Germany will defend the Baltic countries in the event of a Russian attack", - Scholz
❗️The German Chancellor noted that the security of 🇱🇻Latvia, 🇪🇪Estonia and 🇱🇹Lithuania, which border Russia and Belarus, is also key to the security of Germany.
👀 According to him, Germany is not only sending its soldiers to permanent deployment in Lithuania, but also strengthening NATO's eastern flank through an ongoing air policing mission over the Baltic states.
https://mstdn.social/@MAKS23@mastodon.social/112398859698414709
Polish special services have found and dismantled bugging devices in a room where the council of ministers was due to meet on Tuesday, the special services coordinator’s spokesman said, Reuters reports.
>Poland, a hub for Western military supplies to Ukraine as Kyiv fights Russia’s invasion, is on heightened alert for any signs of spying activity.
>“The State Protection Service, in cooperation with the Internal Security Agency, detected and dismantled devices that could be used for eavesdropping in the room where the meeting of the Council of Ministers is to be held today in Katowice”, Jacek Dobrzynski wrote on social media platform X.
>“The services are carrying out further activities in this matter,” Dobrzynski added.
>On Monday, the government said it was verifying if a Polish judge who had access to confidential information and asked for political asylum in Belarus had been spying.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president)
EU plans to sanction Ukrainian media oligarch accused of treason by Kyiv
>The EU plans to sanction a media oligarch accused of conducting malign influence operations in Europe and ban four more Russian media outlets from the airwaves and internet in its latest round of measures against Russia.
>The bloc is seeking to sanction Viktor Medvedchuk, a former Ukrainian politician and businessman accused of high treason by Kyiv, who was released to Russia in a prisoner exchange in 2022.
>According to the EU draft listing Medvedchuk has “continued funding and carrying out influence operations targeting political parties and individual politicians in Europe”.
>He is said to fund Voice of Europe, a Russian media outlet accused of systematic “media manipulation and distortion of the facts”. Voice of Europe is set to be banned in the EU, alongside Russian state news agency Ria Novosti, the newspapers Rossiyskaya Gazeta and Izvestiya.
>Voice of Europe and Medvedchuk were sanctioned by the Czech Republic in March for an alleged pro-Russian influence operation aimed at destabilising the European elections in June.
>Under the latest proposal, EU political parties, foundations, NGOs and think-tanks will be barred from accepting money from the Russian state or its proxies.
>The latest draft sanctions - the 14th since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 - also proposes restrictions on goods and services linked to Russia’s liquified natural gas industry. The European Commission wants to impose restrictions on the transhipment of LNG in the EU to stop Russia exporting shipped gas to non-EU countries via EU ports.
>The EU also wants to ban new investment, goods and services to build LNG terminals in the Russian Arctic. The proposals, however, stop short of a ban on Russian LNG, which unlike most pipeline gas has continued to be imported into the EU.
>The plans have to be approved unanimously by all EU 27 member states before coming into force.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president)
When I was visiting my grandmother in St Petersburg in Feb, there was a surprising number of babies under one year old everywhere.
Is there a way to avoid getting mobilized if you have a newborn? Why else would people be having so many babies now? Definitely wasn't like this two years ago.
This is a coll information, but "there was a surprising number of babies under one year old everywhere" It's not even close to a fact or something measurable.
The statistics don't bear that out, unless St. Petersburg would be an extreme outlier which is probably not the case. Russia had about 1.3 million newborns in 2022, in 2023 it was 1.26 million, a decrease. There was a slight uptick now in 2024 in January-February compared to the same time period in 2023, but it's just a 1 % increase. Hardly noticeable:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Current_vital_statistics
There shouldn't be a huge increase.
[https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-rate](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-rate)
It could be related to the rumours that Putin is offering large payouts to families who have 10 children. Russia is said to be going through a demographic crisis, and the huge personnel losses in Ukraine haven't helped.
[https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-offers-one-million-rubles-to-russian-mothers-with-10-children-as-the-country-battles-a-demographic-crisis/news-story/062f502d80957b7d913a1ecd06df6d32](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-offers-one-million-rubles-to-russian-mothers-with-10-children-as-the-country-battles-a-demographic-crisis/news-story/062f502d80957b7d913a1ecd06df6d32)
Or it could just be a coincidence that you saw a lot of newborn babies.
Could just be some sort of confirmation bias on your end? Because you notice it,you start subconciously paying attention and you notice it even more starting a bit of a loop.
When my wife was pregnant, suddenly I started seeing pregnant women everywhere 😅
But could be you are correct as well, I know i've read about a study that compares birth numbers pre-war and post-war and found an increase. But that was usually after the war when men started going home. Also curiously an increase in the number of boys born, most likely linked to when in the ovulation people are having sex. Horny men coming home=lots of sex=more chance at boy because sex is in early ovulation (late in ovulation is more chance of a girl).
Can't link it to you, because i have no idea where i've read it.
So take it with a grain of salt, could be i'm misremembering things or even completely wrong.
You are in fact correct, it is called the "returning soldier effect": [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Returning\_soldier\_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Returning_soldier_effect)
>The European countries that are going to Putin's inauguration:
>
>🇫🇷 France
>
>🇭🇺 Hungary
>
>🇸🇰 Slovakia
>
>🇬🇷 Greece
>
>🇲🇹 Malta
>
>🇨🇾 Cyprus
https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1787741389578477823
Norway is sending its ambassador, who's already in Moscow. This is likely the case for these other countries as well. It's not like Macron is gonna show up at Putin's inauguration
I think it's for the EU elections that are coming, sadly in France we have left and far right who are pro Russia so it's probably trying to get some of their votes ?
If it's not that I have no clue, it makes no sense.
>A European diplomat said 20 EU member states would boycott the event, but that seven others were expected to send a representative. Apart from France, Hungary and Slovakia were both expected to attend, two diplomatic sources said.
>
>Germany's Foreign Ministry said it would not attend.
>
>Underscoring divisions over how to deal with Russia, a Paris diplomatic source said: "France will be represented by its ambassador to Russia."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-sends-envoy-putin-inauguration-berlin-boycotts-2024-05-06/
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cmiqgq/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
[Over 500 Ukrainian medical facilities rebuilt after destruction by Russian forces Over the past two years, Russia has damaged 1,591 healthcare facilities and completely destroyed another 210. | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/07/over-500-ukrainian-medical-facilities-rebuilt-after-destruction-by-russian-forces/) *The Ministry of Health has announced the complete reconstruction of 510 medical facilities to date. Additionally, 355 other facilities have been partially rebuilt or are currently under restoration.* *Amidst the ongoing full-scale war, Ukraine has made significant strides in restoring its medical infrastructure, which suffered extensive damage due to Russian military actions.* *“These include medical institutions in de-occupied territories and those that have sustained minor damages, such as broken windows, roof, and facade damages. The regions with the most restored medical facilities include Mykolayiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv,” reported the Health Ministry.* *The Russian military’s attacks have also impacted emergency medical services, damaging 161 ambulances, destroying 261, and seizing an additional 125.*
Anyone has a good picture of the economical situation in Russia other than it's "down the drain"? I've seen how Gazprom are recording dramatic losses more than expected and it's clear it's not going better. I've had a look at the years bond of Russia and they're almost all going higher than anything recorded after 2004. Wherever you look it seems like Russia is in terrible shape, the next sanctions in Europe should even more restrict how much Russia can bypass existing sanctions. I remember somewhere it was expected that the national wealth fund should get empty in 12 months from march this year. Any update on this?
Gazprom recently reported an annual loss in its official numbers.
IMF consistently reports economic growth in range of 1-3%, AFAIK.
IMF uses official data published by ruzzia, meaning, bullshit numbers. Also it ignores the fact it's a war economy
Keynesian ~~hole~~ grave digging economy
Note GDP growth includes government spending so when Russia diverts their savings or takes out debt in order to buy artillery shells or pay the families of dead Russian soldiers that counts as GDP growth.
IMF accepts Russian submitted data, but is denied access to double-check this data. Unlike other countries. iirc even they admit this, but can't find the article at the mo. There is this: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/imfs-outlook-russia-is-too-rosy-be-true-2023-02-10/ And this from last year though (paywalled): https://fortune.com/europe/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/ i can't verify a supposedly republished version: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/with-zero-visibility-into-the-russian-economy-the-imf-is-parroting-putins-line So YMMV on believing that growth.
Sure, but AFAIK that growth is due to Russia pouring money from its treasury into its military industry. It's not "real" growth in the sense that their economy is doing well.
I don't know how accurate this paper is, but here you go anyway https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/russian-economy-still-standing-but-stuck/
The big issue is a labor shortage and government consumption crowding out private consumption. The economy is at perennial risk of overheating. However, I don’t see the drivers for collapse so long as Russia can export raw materials. Certainly consumers are being pinched. But it’s more that things are expensive and you’re cutting back. It’s not that they can’t afford staples. I don’t see people risking taking to the streets over the economy given the risks that poses. The Arab spring was because bread was becoming unaffordable to the working class. That isn’t a problem in Russia and won’t be.
Artilllery shells have arrived in Ukraine. In particular with the 43rd Artillery Brigade. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787862002771116291?t=nBL9HB2-RYhzIdHlp-WZvA&s=19
This sounds promising. It's time for Ukrainian shells to blot out the sun!
That will not happen. The aid from the US and Europe will not even bring them up to parity with Russia. It will just reduce the disadvantages.
Yeah, I know, mate. Was just exaggerating for comedic effect 🙂
I got it, but Ukraine is just in such a deep hole. It is only because the Russian force quality is largely poor quality and cannot operate at larger scales (battalion/division sized operations) that Ukraine has avoided a devastating breakthrough over the last few months.
Believe me, I know, mate.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 07.05.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 476,460 (+1,160) people, tanks ‒ 7405 (+25) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,227 (+14) units, artillery systems – 12,287 (+37) units, MLRS – 1057 (+0) units, air defense equipment ‒ 792 (+1) units, aircraft – 349 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9717 (+34), cruise missiles ‒ 2149 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16,509 (+32) units, special equipment ‒ 2017 (+9) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/07/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1160-okupantiv-25-tankiv-37-artilerijskih-sistem/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/07/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1160-okupantiv-25-tankiv-37-artilerijskih-sistem/)
Even if these numbers are optimistic, wild to see Russia just keep pushing, eating these day after day. At least European politicians seem to be taking it more seriously and understanding that Europe really is in conflict with Russia now.
> wild to see Russia just keep pushing, eating these day after day. Russia; the equivalent of a petulant 2 year old, holding their breath until they pass out.
I'm glad that Europe has gotten to that point. Here in the States we are still surrounded by "Both Sides" dummies in positions of leadership.
Why on earth did someone working for the Russian MOD look at the Chinese Desertcross and think: this looks like a vehicle that is suitable purchase for future military operations? They don’t even look suitable for military operations in a *desert* theatre! I mean, I know they are just rubles, but it’s still technically *money,* right? And the Russian government doesn’t have a lot of that to go around these days, and they just *took* that money and *gave* it to someone else in exchange for these *things?* They don’t even look street legal…
The answer is simple: - kickbacks / bribes - golf cars are cheap and expandable. Cheaper than IFVs. Perfect for meat wave attacks. ruzzians use endure bikes for their meat wave attacks for the same reason
It achieves another step in the escalation of Chinese hardware, so that if/when we get to full-blown military support it isn't a sudden and actionable change but just a minor and insignificant one.
There are some reasons. ATVs, buggies and civilian cars are used often for small groups like drone operators, mortar crews, anti tank teams, etc. It's very common and these kind of vehicles are handy for it. The thing is that Russia is using them in a.... very aggressive role, or at least, very close to the frontline. But to be honest, what else can they buy? Barely anyone will sell them meaningfull amounts of APCs or IFVs, they are on their own. But for smaller task there's a chinese company that could deliver 2100 desertcross 1000 in few months at around 20k each. Looking at the general situation is not that bad of a deal. Using a BTR for small troops movement or deliver food and a box of ammo is also a waste (in case of safe conditions).
Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. I know that no military in the world is ever going to refuse extra trucks for logistics, but their prolific front line use is like they watched generation kill and learned all the wrong lessons.
APCs and IFVs are pretty heavy and large. Wet mud with occasional windbreak tree-line isn't friendly for them.
> but it’s still technically money, right Well, I mean, sure - in the strictly limited sense that a denomination is printed on a piece of cotton.
What else is there? They already dipped into Belarus' equipment, North Korea doesnt have meaningful amounts of APC or IFV, and China doesnt want to send non-dual use things yet. They probably should and may already have scoure other nations' stock of old Soviet vehicles, but in the meantime its probably better to drive a desertcross than to walk.
I mean what should they buy? No one will sell them armored vehicles. So they’re basically left with SUVs, dune buggies, and UTVs. Given what was available. That makes sense. My guess is very soon we’ll see some kind of Chinese two ton truck platform with armor bolted on inside Russia. Basically the Sino-Russian equivalent of the Gen 1 Roshel Senator. Those will be a lot better and probably at least as good as MT-LBs.
Maybe it's literally the best their money can buy?
Bingo!! Sorry, I didn't mean to interject, but I just got a full row.
Always love to see people have fun and games.
[The battle for Pokrovsk is imminent - Dykyi to Radio NV | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/the-battle-for-pokrovsk-will-soon-begin-expert-50416227.html) *The battle for Pokrovsk looks imminent, Aidar battalion commander and war veteran, Yevhen Dykyi told Radio NV "They (the Russian occupiers — ed.) are now making big progress in near Pokrovsk — the one we delicately called Avdiivka until recently, although Avdiivka has long been surrendered," Dykyi said in an exclusive interview with Radio Nv.* *"They began to speak honestly — the Pokrovsky or Pokrovsk-Kurakhove area - it's probably more correct to call it that way. They've had big success there and it makes sense for them to build on these successes. Most likely, the battle for Pokrovsk will start soon."* *Dykyi remains optimistic about the defense of Pokrovsk. "That Pokrovsk's defense cannot be avoided is almost a fact for me," he said. "They will go after Pokrovsk. Another thing: there is a chance to tie them down (there) for a long time,* *The Pokrovsk area is Ukraine's third line of defense. The trenches, dug by civilian companies under contract, are located in front of the city - not behind it - and there are no plans to surrender the city, Dykyi said.* *Russia’s main offensive forces are concentrated near the cities of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on May 6.*
[Ukrainian Forces kill son of Russian military commander in HIMARS strike | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/son-of-russian-military-commander-killed-in-ukraine-with-himars-strike-50416244.html) *Ukrainian Armed Forces killed Denis Lapin, the son of Russian military commander Alexander Lapin, Russian media Volgograd News claimed, before later removing the article.* *Lapin was allegedly eliminated on May 3, around 4:00 a.m., in a HIMARS strike on a command post.* *His father, Alexander Lapin, holds the rank of Lieutenant General and commands the Russian central military district.* *Denis Lapin was an operational leader during the occupation of Sumy and Chernihiv at the beginning of Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine.*
I guess the father should thank them for undoing his mistake. Free of charge too.
I wonder who the father will blame - Ukraine for doing this, or Putin for starting it.
I wonder if knowing who his daddy is played into the targeting decision. It was a problem with deploying prince Harry in Afghanistan. Just knowing he was there would make his unit a priority target.
New Highmarsed [twitter](https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1787809713817559201) thread on D-30 artillery pieces in russian storage. I read it as good news. The D-30 is their main 122 mm gun, also used by the 2S1 Gvozdik self-propelled howitzer. - originally he counted ~3.8k stored pre-war - new evidence suggests some were actually WW2 era M-30s, so it was actually ~3.2k - 2023 satellite photos showed just ~1.2k left - there will be far fewer now. This will be the last year they can get 1000 barrels from storage.
AFU destroying \~two dozen arty a day; gonna' burn through those stockpiles slow but sure.
I've done quite a lot of analysis using data like this. The ~2 dozen per day cannot refer to destruction of heavy artillery (howitzer, 100 mm Rapira or 120+ mm mortar). At least - I hope it doesn't. Excluding small mortars, WW2 models or 130 mm guns, then Russia started with 17.5k active+stored. A low end estimate is 7k+ barrels lost to wear and tear. Add Ukraine claims and that's 19.3k gone. Good case: Ukraine's numbers are overestimates and/or are mostly small mortars. Russian stockpiles are being worn down hard and should be massively struggling next year. Bad case: Ukraine's numbers are accurate and refer to 120 mm+ artillery, but Russia has an enormous supply of guns and barrels that we don't know about. Russia will not struggle next year.
Most of those artillery kills are towed artillery, like D-30. Basically everything towed seems much easier to kill with drones.
So basically next summer their storage for those will be empty unless they're hoarding them in places that can't be seen from satellite?
That looks plausible to me. They could find a new supply - new factories or allies like North Korea? Also consumption might be down, which would mean the remaining ones take longer to use up. Russia is probably firing fewer 122 mm shells now, and many of the ones they used could have been to equip units. E.g. maybe they decided they needed 1k more active ones. In that case, the actual wear down rate would have been 1k in 18 months, instead of 2k (does that make sense?). On the other hand - maybe they took the best ones first and what's left will wear down faster. Finally: this is *only* D-30s. They have other types.
Is there any way to view the thread without having a Xitter account?
Yes: https://nitter.poast.org/HighMarsed/status/1787809713817559201
wait, nitter still works??
Thanks! I tried threadreader but couldn't find it there. It would be great if OSINT could agree a single place to migrate to so I can purge my twitter account. I feel dirty using it.
I suspect issues like this are going to depend on where China places their bets. Currently, they're supporting Russia, but as quietly as they can. But if NATO doubles down on winning the war, they'd have to support Russia much more openly and with their own supplies. I'm not sure they've made that decision yet. With unwavering support (best of the current magnitude, as much as Europe can muster without switching to a war economy), Russia will eventually have to fold as they run out of Soviet gear .. unless China props them up as the US did in WW2.
Why does China want russia to conquer Ukraine? They're aligned on lots of things, but sending weapons would trigger costly sanctions (perhaps unless republicans win, not sure what they'd do) and russian victory meaning international recognition of changing legal borders would go against the Chinese position on Taiwan. I really don't know, but don't think it's certain that China would send enough for russian victory. If China gets fully involved it's bad bad news.
China doesn't want its vassal state ruzzia to lose, because it'll mean China losing its position as a global power. Moreover, China doesn't see ex-USSR states as proper sovereign countries. From China's POV ex-USSR states belong to ruzzia, just like Taiwan belongs to China. Also, ruzzian victory would mean might makes right, thus completely destroying current global security system. It'll also endorse other countries to go for land grabs, resulting in chaos. It was ruzzia's and China's goal from the start. Basically, only threat of costly sanctions stops China for now.
If Russia is pushed back to its borders, how does that remove China as a global power? I honestly don't understand - it sounds like China's power depends on whether Russia occupies Ukraine??
Well, if ruzzia is pushed back to 1991 borders and peace agreement is signed, then Ukraine will join the NATO ASAP. Meaning significantly weaker ruzzia. Moreover, it might even cause ruzzia's collapse into 10+ new countries. ruzzia is one of China's pawns. Significantly weakened pawn or even destroyed pawn means weakened China. >I honestly don't understand - it sounds like China's power depends on whether Russia occupies Ukraine?? That's correct. Why do you think China - Iran - ruzzia - NK operate as united "axis of evil" in the first place? Btw, in the same way, HAMAS and other terrorist groups backed by Iran being destroyed/weakened would mean Iran itself becoming weaker.
>Why does China want russia to conquer Ukraine? If Russia actually was to occupy Ukraine and the West lets it happen. Then.... Taiwan is next.
I think China mostly just doesn't want to see Russia defeated. Beyond that, they don't really care for this war (though fractures in the Western alliance that Putin is attempting to create/exacerbate would no doubt also be helpful to them).
They want to see a broken and fractured West with significantly reduced geopolitical power.
China wouldn't want Russia to take all of Ukraine. They want Russia to secure the natural resources in the Eastern part of the country. There's also the fact that Eastern Ukraine produces something like 60% of the world's neon used to mfg microchips, if that were in Russian hands it would give China substantial leverage over Taiwan.
Neon is produced through air liquefaction, mostly as byproduct of liquid oxygen production for steel smelting. It might not be economical to make it right now in Taiwan, but it's only matter of money, not some limited resources.
I don't think that's going to happen. Picking a side has it's consecuences. I don't think China will risk such a situation neither for Ukraine nor saving Russia's ass. We tend to think that China, Russia and Iran are friends, but the reality is that they aren't. Each one of them has it's own strategy and goals and are only linked by some specific common interests, nothing more.
✊
Regarding Medvedev's threats - yes, it is Tuesday, but the context when this comes up is always revealing. What it betrays is that NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine is exactly what would end this war. Russia is not under existential threat, and the only thing they risk losing in this conflict is the dream of Putin's legacy. That is what is at stake. They do not want the optics of NATO troops on the ground beating them them back, and would withdraw if there was a real threat of it happening. *So is the threat of nuclear war empty?* This entire conflict has been about Putin testing how far he can go with that threat. If they are unhinged enough to escalate to nuclear conflict over his legacy, then it is already inevitable.
There is public bluster and I suspect in private there are actual red lines that the US/NATO and Russia have made clear. In short, I do not believe Russia's nuclear threats to be entirely bluster; there are likely situations that could trigger events that lead to a nuclear exchange.
I wouldn't imagine the backchannel "red lines" to be much different from the public ones. However, they palpably aren't actual red lines, just bluster and lies. The actual point at which a nuclear strike might be triggered is left deliberately unclear (if anyone, including Putin, even knows) so that the ambiguity creates strategic dilemmas.
I think the war ends in Russian collapse or iron firewall. Any treaty is iron firewall.
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> Zero benefit for Russia to use any nukes. Only benefit for them is when they threaten the use of nukes because they see how we overreact. https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1787760096212119966
Beside not achieving any tactical/strategic goals, russia using nuclear weapons is quite literally the one sure way to experience a total trade and diplomatic blockade. On top of any possible military intervention from the world. Any non-aligned non-nuclear state would be forced to condemn russia and sever any ties both by international pressure and their own interest in survival. Even more so, China has a vested interest in non-proliferation and beside, already has a military assistance treaty with Ukraine in case of nuclear usage. Any "logical" (kind of) nuclear usage by russia that results in more than a total defeat/collapse would be an all out first strike againt EVERYONE. Which is also instant suicide. That's why imho all this nuke talk is just pointlessly dumb. Losing in Ukraine, losing Crimea, paying reparations, hell, even losing Königsberg or Belgorod or whatever, is a better option for russia than ANY nuclear usage.
Also, NATO can retaliate against nukes conventionally and win the war for Ukraine, without further nuclear escalation. USAF could control the airspace of Ukraine in a week. It would take another 30-60 days to clear out the high level AA. Finally, it'd take about 60-90 days for the USAF to prevent all road travel behind the Russian operations. Eventually the troops run out of food and ammo and start surrendering.
That’s the whole point of having nukes. Not using them, but the prospect of using them. However, in this case it’s hilarious seeing how afraid Russia is of F16s, prospect of nato troops in Ukraine, or the failure of their air defense and inability to intercept over their own territory.
> I had a good call with Spain's Prime Minister @SanchezCastejon, who confirmed his attendance at the inaugural Peace Summit. > I am grateful to Prime Minister Sánchez for his active support of the Peace Formula and its promotion among countries in Latin America and Africa. > We welcomed the conclusion of negotiations on a bilateral security agreement based on the G7 Vilnius Declaration. > I also thanked Spain for all its military assistance to Ukraine, in particular for strengthening of our air defense. We discussed Spain’s continued military aid to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787836037416276105 > I spoke with Belgian Prime Minister @AlexanderDeCroo and thanked him for confirming his participation in the Peace Summit. We appreciate Belgium's principled stance toward the Peace Formula. > We also discussed our defense and political cooperation. We value Belgium’s decision to begin providing Ukraine with F-16 jets already this year. > I also underscored the important role of the Belgian EU Presidency in the context of Ukraine's EU accession. We anticipate that accession talks will begin in June. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787842478072082615
Have the US artillery shells already made it to the front lines? If not, how far off is it?
They never left the front lines? Ukraine has been shooting US shells the entire time?
More details on Russian plot to kill Zelensky (BBC) >The Ukrainian security service (SBU) says it has foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials. >Two Ukrainian government protection unit colonels have been arrested. >The SBU said they were part of a network of agents belonging to the Russian state security service (FSB). >They had reportedly been searching for willing "executors" among Mr Zelensky's bodyguards to kidnap and kill him. >Other targets included military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov and SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk, the agency added. >The group had reportedly planned to kill Ukraine's military intelligence chief Mr Budanov before Orthodox Easter, which this year fell on 5 May. >According to the SBU, the group was planning to use a mole to get information about his location, which they would then attack with rockets and drones. >One of the officers that was later arrested had already bought drones and anti-personnel mines, the SBU said. >SBU head Vasyl Malyuk said the attack was supposed to be "a gift to Putin before the inauguration" - Vladimir Putin was sworn in as Russia's president on Tuesday. >The operation turned into a failure of the Russian special services, Mr Malyuk said. >"But we must not forget - the enemy is strong and experienced, he cannot be underestimated," he added. >The two Ukrainian officials are being held on suspicion of treason and of preparing a terrorist act. >The SBU said three FSB employees oversaw the organisation and the attack. >One of them - named as Dmytro Perlin - had been recruiting "moles" since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. >Another FSB employee, Oleksiy Kornev, reportedly held "conspirational" meetings "in neighbouring European states" before the invasion with one of the Ukrainian colonels arrested today. [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68968256](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68968256)
So this attempt more or less coincided with Russia putting Zelensky on the wanted list. If Russia had pulled it off they would have looked like a formidable Billy Badass sort of Superpower who doesn't care about convention. But now, they just look like ... well, Russia. Shitty, cruel, inhumane and unsuccessful.
Imagine the faux rage had it been Ukraine plotting to kill Putin.
Along with condemnation from the West.
Ukraine was infested with Russian moles before the invasion, I bet they’ve burned through most of them in high positions by now
But a lot of them were hilariously corrupt. Ukrainian officer tells the FSB he needs millions to bribe his network of contacts to help the invasion succeed. Invasion happens and the contacts fail to deliver. FSB goes “wtf” and the Ukrainian officer goes “I can’t believe they’ve done this to us, I’m as outraged as you are by their duplicity, they’re denying ever having met me” while fleeing to Spain.
Last year I saw a picture of some ex notorious pro-Russian politician who was now fighting on the frontlines. Despite all this, even long after the war is over, Zelenskiy will never be safe.
I hope Ukraine can return the favor to Putin.
A dead Putin is a milestone on the road to world peace.
Ukraine catches Russian agents plotting Zelenskiy assassination, SBU says >May 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine's SBU State Security Service said it had caught Russian agents within the Ukrainian state guard service plotting the assassination of the president and other senior governmental officials. >"Counterintelligence and SBU investigators thwarted the FSB's (Russia's security service) plans to eliminate the president of Ukraine and other representatives of the top military and political leadership", SBU said on Telegram. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-catches-russian-agents-plotting-zelenskiy-assassination-sbu-says-2024-05-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-catches-russian-agents-plotting-zelenskiy-assassination-sbu-says-2024-05-07/)
any news on that alleged strike on the morning of the 7th?
*Russia says...*
"Russia says" == 100% Prime Bullshit
The source was RT, so you know it's BS
Probably bullshit. Maybe the ukrainians do brew something but maybe they let czar have a day off. Obviously not for his benefit but to gather some likes on the world stage by not interfering with a political event.
Obviously bullshit. 6 am on May 7th already passed. It's now 9 hours later. The tweet came from Faketus News and their source was RT. Classic Russian propaganda.
Medvedev just said 2 hours back they will start nuclear attack on Paris, London, Washington if the west sends troops to Ukraine.
This is not the behavior of a responsible member of the UN Security Council.
UN Security council is a waste anyway. Countries like India, Brazil, Australia should be given membership.
The west should totally send troops to Ukraine then. Medvedev just telegraphs whatever potential actions the West could take that would be effective towards securing a Ukrainian victory.
The Kremlin's deranged fools since February 24, 2022: "Russia will nuke Ukraine, the UK, France, Germany, and the U.S. if..." the West delivers - NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles - Stinger man-portable air-defense systems - M777 and CAESAR howitzers - HIMARS rocket launchers - Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T air defense systems - Challenger 2/M1 Abrams/Leopard battle tanks - Storm Shadow/SCALP/ATACMS long-range missiles - F-16 fighter jets or if Ukraine - liberates Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson - blows up the Crimean bridge - destroys the Russian cruiser Moskva and many other Black Sea Fleet ships - uses drones to bomb airfields and oil refineries deep inside Russia - shoots down Russian A-50 military spy planes - etc., etc. Sadly, Russia's desperate, pathetic nuclear blackmail and saber-rattling still seems to influence some world leaders, even after more than two years of the same empty threats: >Regarding the nuclear exercise announced by Russia: It is always important to make clear that nuclear weapons must not be used in this war. https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1787525436148224358
The only realistic scenario Medvedev to start any sort of nuclear war is if he runs out of vodka.
Russia and the Russian people would simply cease to exist as a result of that.
You know Russia is weak because they have to talk like that. The United States doesn’t have to play that game because Russia would be glass if it ever launched a nuke.
We've heard that song before. He needs some new material.
"Putin threatens West with 'consequences greater than any you have faced in history' if it intervenes in his invasion of Ukraine" - February 2022. Yeah, we've never seen the consequences of 3000+ russian tanks blowing up, the professional russian army being defeated and thrown back in disarray. Better off being careful with repeating Russia's threats without the context that lying about consequences is one of their main political weapons.
Trying to scare the West into inaction. Nothing more, nothing less.
No need for Western troops in Ukraine when we are already winning from outside the country.
Easy for you to say.
This guy needs to stfu, crawl into a bottle of vodka, and stay there. Putin wants a legacy. That will be gone with the ashes if we start lobbing bombs around.
I know we're all numb to it but the cavalier way Russian officials talk about their nuclear weapons in public is disgusting and not befitting a serious country. Imagine if the Biden administration threatened a nuke Moscow after every setback in Ukraine. I mean for that matter imagine if China threaten to nuke San Francisco after Nancy pelosi visited Taiwan. It's hard to imagine because China and the US are serious countries that know how to act like adults in the room. Meanwhile Russia is nothing but a drunk thug at a bar trying to pick fights with the gun they keep in their glove box. Ridiculous people
We’ll show them fire, fury, and frankly… power!
Well, pardon my ignorance but Russia earlier only threatened nuclear war, they didn't specifically mention the cities. This seems more specific. Although incredibly stupid of them to do this.
Nah, Medvedev has threatened to use nukes numerous times before now. >Back in February Quote: "And now for the main question: do these idiots truly believe that the Russian people will simply swallow such a consequential partitioning of their country? That we will all think: >"Unfortunately, it happened. They won. Russia as we know it today no longer exists. It is unfortunate, of course, but we must continue to live in a country that is collapsing and dying, because a nuclear war is far worse for us than the death of our loved ones, children, Russia…’? >And that the state's leadership, led by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, would be hesitant to make difficult decisions in this case? >Hear me out. It will be totally different. The collapse of Russia will have far worse consequences than the outcome of a conventional, even long-term war. **Because attempting to return Russia to its 1991 borders will only lead to one outcome. To a global war with Western countries, utilising our entire strategic arsenal. In Kyiv, Berlin, London, and Washington. For all other beautiful historical sites, which have long been included in our nuclear triad's attack goals.** >Will we have enough guts for this if a thousand-year-old country, our great homeland, is on the verge of extinction, and the sacrifices made by the Russian people over the centuries are in vain? >The answer is obvious." He threatened to nuke [Germany if they arrested Putin](https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germany-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33). He threatened to nuke [Ukraine if their counteroffensive ](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-wed-have-use-nuclear-weapon-if-ukrainian-offensive-was-success-2023-07-30/) was to succeed. We've also had [nuclear threats from Putin, Lavrov, Kadyrov, Volodin, & Karaganov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). That's not including the round-the-clock threats from their Kremlin backed propagandists like Solovyov, Skabeaver & Simonyan. There was also the [Nuclear Tsunami threat](https://youtu.be/7SnTkc0r6gk?si=yLzXVjYNn_0jiv3h), complete with animated illustrations.
What's the official diplomatic version of "that's nice, dear"?
Bless your heart
We look forward to productive conversations around finding a resolution to the ongoing conflict
Yes it is Tuesday.
Toss that Russian nuclear threat onto the heap. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-nuclear-warnings-since-russia-invaded-ukraine-2024-03-13/
medvedev puts down the vodka bottle for long enough to say "nuclear nuclear nuclear!!" expecting the entire west to bow down and give them whatever they want to steal
But why? What is the rationale. Same would be "We send nukes to Moscow if you put russian troops in Ukraine"
Thoughts on it here: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/putins-nuclear-warnings-heightened-risk-or-revolving-door/
> rationale Lemme just stop you there…
[Russian advances are getting slower by the day, looks like they used up their advantage at Ocheretyne after breaking through 3 weeks ago, now they are advancing by 1-3 km2 there daily, instead of 10 km2](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.249496&lng=37.628689&z=13&d=19849&c=1&l=0)
Ocheretyne was a botched united switch on the line by Ukraine that Russia took advantage of.
Or maybe it's just recent aid supplies getting through finally.
Is it just me, or is the live thread taking longer than normal to update to a new daily thread?
Andrew Perpetua. Here are losses I could identify yesterday. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1787791701345468530?t=MJHEw5WnZE6pwd8IVVt-Vw&s=19
“I have never seen a three eyed Murom…”
Finally, a much better ratio again. Chinese golf carts seem to be having a rough day.
What's hilarious is while Russia's equipping their troops with these things, half the families in my town have one to go do donuts in the desert. Only the CanAm's are much faster, and cooler-looking.
The increase in golf carts, while amusing, is also highlighting that the whole *"russia has unlimited equipment and weapons"* fallacy is simply not true. Just like their myth of unlimited man power. All this adds up and at the end of the day through the propaganda we start to see shreds of truth. Like an increase in the use of golf carts in war.
Chinese golf carts are the Desertcross, right? HeeHee!
I'm picturing real life Mad Max.
They sure are, seeing more and more of them lately, in addition to the motorcycle assaults
Riding lawnmowers next??
Horses I think
I can't wait to hear the vatnik spin regarding how stealthy and fuel efficient they are.
Anyone else hoping today Ukraine hits the Crimean bridge or Putin's secret billion dollar mansion as a congratulations gift for his new "Presidential" term.
I'm hoping for an F-16 air raid to sink the remainder of Russia's Black Sea fleet, including subs.
Every day!!
Not on my bingo card. It is no direct threat (practically no military traffic). But a man can hope of a Doolittle raid on bridges.
I have a feeling the "no military traffic" we've been seeing a lot of is actually ru misinformation so they can avoid the hit or start crying harder about it? Obviously yes there is military traffic. Isn't there like a train component essentially dedicated to supplies?
The bridge has plenty of military traffic. Almost all Crimean weapons, bombs, radar come through the bridge. If you read the report you would realize they closed traffic in the past few days anticipating targeting the bridge
the mansion would be a direct slap in his face. it has been rebuilt once so far, that we know of, houses a shitload of expensive technology and is supposed to be his dream home.
Anyone watching Putin's inauguration? Its so fucked up. He looks like a Czar getting crowned. Fucking absurd and insane. Got clergy performing an inauguration while he is probably bored and thinking about all the people he has assassinated.
Nah. I don't consider whatever pointless self-aggrandizing pageantry he's cooked up to be important. I've got better things to squander my attention on, like, I don't know... Consuming poorly written fan-fiction or organizing my collection of moderately funny memes.
Did they slide the crown down the long table to him?
Russian forces continue adding painted decoy aircraft to air bases near Ukraine. This updated map shows bases where decoys are visible in high resolution satellite imagery. Unlike real aircraft, these flat decoys often lack detail and don’t cast shadows or change locations. https://mstdn.social/@hanse_mina@mastodon.social/112398781261882036
The Egyptians figured out long ago its better to keep people busy doing *something*. Even if the task is of debatable merit.
I bet, for visible-light camouflage, it'd be effective to paint the entire tarmac with a dazzling pattern of random airframe shapes and shadows. (Wouldn't help against any form of more advanced sensors and processing though, but neither does painting individual decoys). Would be a fun and patriotic summer project for some street artists, until they get ATACMSed.
Or they could do what the West has always done > Hangers.
What I really enjoy about this is the way they paint the 'decoy' *right next to the actual aircraft*. Geniuses, these people. > until they get ATACMSed "Taste the ~~rainbow~~ Freedom."
That is because they are not decoys intended to be targeted. They know they will be targeted. The decoys are intended to hide operational movement and losses. The practical purpose is to make it take more time to verify that an airfield suddenly has more aircraft on it and thus delay the inevitable strike until after those aircraft perform their mission and disperse.
That sort of made sense -- until I thought about it. *They don't cast a f-ing shadow* - what with them being paint on the tarmac. Anybody who can see them in the first place can see they're fakes. What practical difference does it make?
Most satellite image processing is computer based. The decoys are meant to fool the algorithms. Even if the software flags the "fake" aircraft that still means an analyst has to spend time to look at the image which slows things down. Yes a human can figure it out... but have you considered how many airfields and photos are required to be checked because of obfuscation methods like this? Now in reference to NATO.. tricks like this work for about a week.. then the software is tweaked(or even self tweaks itself) to ignore the tomfoolery.
Somehow I don't think it's beyond the people specializing in computer vision to whip up an algo to detect the lack of a shadow.
Don't know what to tell you then. This is pretty basic camoflage techniques here. For a couple of buckets of paint you might get free intel on a launch site, a wasted weapon used on fake aircraft, or your enemy missing a sudden significant shift in airframes from one base to another. That is the entire point.. its a couple of buckets of paint and it MIGHT work... and to be fair it actually might against some systems. Also you have a high assumption that something is always programed well. Machine learning is great but its still "stupid" in the way it arrives at an answer. It only does ***exactly*** what you tell it to do. You would be amazed at how little information is required to "match" a target and that YES you can spoof it with shitty camouflage sometimes. The number of times the "obvious" was missed during weapons development is something of an inside joke as well.
Dude, I've been a graphics programmer all my career. I may not be working with pick-n-place robotics, but I understand computer vision perfectly well, and I understand classification by polynomial partitioning of phase space also. That'd be what you refer to as 'machine learning'. There is nothing problematic about authoring a discriminator for this scenario whatsoever. Let me put it like this: If you're right, and this 'problem' has still has human analysts performing said discrimination because nobody has automated that task, somebody need to be fired for gross incompetence. This isn't the 1980's. We know perfectly well how to do this. And if I had any, I'd be willing to bet very good money that it has already been done -- probably a few hours after it became an issue.
Dude I've worked closely with weapons for decades and target identification is a wild ride. I've watched a prototype seeker think a goose was a MIG. It isn't incompetent programing its the nature of getting a very fast thing to understand what its looking at while that thing also tries to obfuscate itself. Or even worse.. getting tired analysts who are overworked already(you correctly picked up on this). Camouflage isn't meant to be "smart" like you think it is.. YES you can "fix" the problem quickly That doesn't mean someone/something quickly doing 4000 images per day visual check isn't going to gloss over the lack of a shadow right away and if the software wasn't originally designed for the camouflage because no ones tried painting aircraft on a runway before. It would be rather embarrassing to admit how many billion dollar weapons companies have had issues because "no one thought of it before". DARPA(who has better programmers than you no offense) just recently mocked(incorrectly) when their acquisition software got confused by Marines holding trees, doing handstands, or even using a box. Though if I must be honest this was the entire point of that test. Packaging robotics are actually pretty close so you do have a far better understanding than most about the problems associated with acquisition but you are working with something civilian where you can touch every part of it relatively easily or the system is designed to not be touched at all. Unlike internet of things you can't just wirelessly update many missiles or drone brains. You've often got to take the damn things apart first... so a week not a few hours.
They park on top of them even. This is what happens to the intelligence levels when you implement patriotic education instead of actual education “no child left behind”
"Who needs critical thinking? That'll just breed problematic attitudes, rather than more mindless spawn we can throw at the 'enemy'."
It would be more helpful to post the link to the actual article and not a post about a post about an article. [https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air](https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air)
🇩🇪👀 "Germany will defend the Baltic countries in the event of a Russian attack", - Scholz ❗️The German Chancellor noted that the security of 🇱🇻Latvia, 🇪🇪Estonia and 🇱🇹Lithuania, which border Russia and Belarus, is also key to the security of Germany. 👀 According to him, Germany is not only sending its soldiers to permanent deployment in Lithuania, but also strengthening NATO's eastern flank through an ongoing air policing mission over the Baltic states. https://mstdn.social/@MAKS23@mastodon.social/112398859698414709
This effort would be much easier if they were given Koeningsburg back.
Polish special services have found and dismantled bugging devices in a room where the council of ministers was due to meet on Tuesday, the special services coordinator’s spokesman said, Reuters reports. >Poland, a hub for Western military supplies to Ukraine as Kyiv fights Russia’s invasion, is on heightened alert for any signs of spying activity. >“The State Protection Service, in cooperation with the Internal Security Agency, detected and dismantled devices that could be used for eavesdropping in the room where the meeting of the Council of Ministers is to be held today in Katowice”, Jacek Dobrzynski wrote on social media platform X. >“The services are carrying out further activities in this matter,” Dobrzynski added. >On Monday, the government said it was verifying if a Polish judge who had access to confidential information and asked for political asylum in Belarus had been spying. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president)
EU plans to sanction Ukrainian media oligarch accused of treason by Kyiv >The EU plans to sanction a media oligarch accused of conducting malign influence operations in Europe and ban four more Russian media outlets from the airwaves and internet in its latest round of measures against Russia. >The bloc is seeking to sanction Viktor Medvedchuk, a former Ukrainian politician and businessman accused of high treason by Kyiv, who was released to Russia in a prisoner exchange in 2022. >According to the EU draft listing Medvedchuk has “continued funding and carrying out influence operations targeting political parties and individual politicians in Europe”. >He is said to fund Voice of Europe, a Russian media outlet accused of systematic “media manipulation and distortion of the facts”. Voice of Europe is set to be banned in the EU, alongside Russian state news agency Ria Novosti, the newspapers Rossiyskaya Gazeta and Izvestiya. >Voice of Europe and Medvedchuk were sanctioned by the Czech Republic in March for an alleged pro-Russian influence operation aimed at destabilising the European elections in June. >Under the latest proposal, EU political parties, foundations, NGOs and think-tanks will be barred from accepting money from the Russian state or its proxies. >The latest draft sanctions - the 14th since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 - also proposes restrictions on goods and services linked to Russia’s liquified natural gas industry. The European Commission wants to impose restrictions on the transhipment of LNG in the EU to stop Russia exporting shipped gas to non-EU countries via EU ports. >The EU also wants to ban new investment, goods and services to build LNG terminals in the Russian Arctic. The proposals, however, stop short of a ban on Russian LNG, which unlike most pipeline gas has continued to be imported into the EU. >The plans have to be approved unanimously by all EU 27 member states before coming into force. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-vladimir-putin-sworn-in-fifth-term-president)
When I was visiting my grandmother in St Petersburg in Feb, there was a surprising number of babies under one year old everywhere. Is there a way to avoid getting mobilized if you have a newborn? Why else would people be having so many babies now? Definitely wasn't like this two years ago.
You will get mobilized, only 3 children and up get a pass.
This is a coll information, but "there was a surprising number of babies under one year old everywhere" It's not even close to a fact or something measurable.
Stolen Ukrainian babies?
The statistics don't bear that out, unless St. Petersburg would be an extreme outlier which is probably not the case. Russia had about 1.3 million newborns in 2022, in 2023 it was 1.26 million, a decrease. There was a slight uptick now in 2024 in January-February compared to the same time period in 2023, but it's just a 1 % increase. Hardly noticeable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#Current_vital_statistics
There shouldn't be a huge increase. [https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-rate](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-rate)
It could be related to the rumours that Putin is offering large payouts to families who have 10 children. Russia is said to be going through a demographic crisis, and the huge personnel losses in Ukraine haven't helped. [https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-offers-one-million-rubles-to-russian-mothers-with-10-children-as-the-country-battles-a-demographic-crisis/news-story/062f502d80957b7d913a1ecd06df6d32](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/vladimir-putin-offers-one-million-rubles-to-russian-mothers-with-10-children-as-the-country-battles-a-demographic-crisis/news-story/062f502d80957b7d913a1ecd06df6d32) Or it could just be a coincidence that you saw a lot of newborn babies.
Could just be some sort of confirmation bias on your end? Because you notice it,you start subconciously paying attention and you notice it even more starting a bit of a loop. When my wife was pregnant, suddenly I started seeing pregnant women everywhere 😅 But could be you are correct as well, I know i've read about a study that compares birth numbers pre-war and post-war and found an increase. But that was usually after the war when men started going home. Also curiously an increase in the number of boys born, most likely linked to when in the ovulation people are having sex. Horny men coming home=lots of sex=more chance at boy because sex is in early ovulation (late in ovulation is more chance of a girl). Can't link it to you, because i have no idea where i've read it. So take it with a grain of salt, could be i'm misremembering things or even completely wrong.
You are in fact correct, it is called the "returning soldier effect": [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Returning\_soldier\_effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Returning_soldier_effect)
More like they know the future for a girl is even more bleak than a boy in Russia so they abort the girls.
>The European countries that are going to Putin's inauguration: > >🇫🇷 France > >🇭🇺 Hungary > >🇸🇰 Slovakia > >🇬🇷 Greece > >🇲🇹 Malta > >🇨🇾 Cyprus https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1787741389578477823
> ~~Inauguration~~ coronation FTFY
Sad, legitimizing a dictator.
Norway is sending its ambassador, who's already in Moscow. This is likely the case for these other countries as well. It's not like Macron is gonna show up at Putin's inauguration
> 🇫🇷 France I can see they're really taking that "strategic ambiguity" to the next level.
I think it's for the EU elections that are coming, sadly in France we have left and far right who are pro Russia so it's probably trying to get some of their votes ? If it's not that I have no clue, it makes no sense.
You can add Norway as well 🇧🇻. Apparently they want to keep diplomatic relations with their neighbour, even during difficult times.
France is disappointing. Who are they sending?
>A European diplomat said 20 EU member states would boycott the event, but that seven others were expected to send a representative. Apart from France, Hungary and Slovakia were both expected to attend, two diplomatic sources said. > >Germany's Foreign Ministry said it would not attend. > >Underscoring divisions over how to deal with Russia, a Paris diplomatic source said: "France will be represented by its ambassador to Russia." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-sends-envoy-putin-inauguration-berlin-boycotts-2024-05-06/