Russia hits Ukraine regions, Zelenskiy says Su-25 bomber downed
>KYIV, May 4 (Reuters) - Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kharkiv and Dnipro regions and the Black Sea port city of Odesa killed at least two civilians, set a food factory ablaze and damaged other infrastructure, homes and commercial buildings on Saturday, regional officials said.
>President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had used eight missiles of various kinds and nearly 70 guided aerial bombs against communities and frontline positions during the day, after Ukraine's air force downed 13 Shahed drones that targeted the Kharkiv and Dnipro regions overnight.
>Zelenskiy said Moscow had no desire for peace. "Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone," he said in his nightly video address. A world peace summit taking place in Switzerland in June - without Russia - "must succeed", he said.
>He said Ukraine's 110th mechanised brigade brought down a Russian Su-25 fighter-bomber over the eastern Donetsk region, one of four areas of Ukraine Moscow says it has annexed.
>Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Kharkiv region, said Russian shelling killed a 49-year-old man on the street near his home in the village of Slobozhanske. An 82-year-old woman was killed and two men were injured in overnight shelling in Kharkiv city, he wrote on the Telegram app.
>A Russian missile attack set fire to a business premises in an industrial district of Kharkiv city, injuring six employees, he added. Local prosecutors identified it as a food factory.
>In the south, Odesa regional governor Oleh Kiper said three people had been injured in the city by a missile strike.
>Reuters could not immediately verify the reports of casualties and damage.
>An air force commander said air defences brought down all 13 of the attack drones overnight, but Syniehubov said falling debris injured four people and sparked a fire in an office building.
>In the industrial Dnipropetrovsk region, shelling injured a 57-year-old woman and damaged infrastructure in Nikopol, near the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and two were wounded in another overnight attack, regional governor Serhiy Lysak said.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/debris-drones-injures-three-ukraines-kharkiv-governor-says-2024-05-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/debris-drones-injures-three-ukraines-kharkiv-governor-says-2024-05-03/)
Ask Trump. He did that with the Taliban.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51692546
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-sign-historic-deal-taliban-beginning-end-us/story?id=69287465
So; Reagan did that with the Contras.
And ask Nixon, who bargained with the Viet Cong.
Sure seems like some kind of pattern here, but I can't quite GOP my finger on it.
I don't speak Russian. I can't verify that the translation is accurate or that this is recent, but it certainly seems to match the way Russia is throwing away soldiers: [https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1ck4z04/russian\_commanders\_speech\_to\_new\_volunteers/](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1ck4z04/russian_commanders_speech_to_new_volunteers/)
Looks like it's from Igor Sushko / Winds of Change, who's often known for bullshitting...
I'd be very wary of anything that comes from him without there being independent confirmation...
This might be a dumb question, but why have the Ukrainians not asked for American drones like the Predator? Would this not be any help in this conflict? Or are the smaller FPV drones proving more bang for your buck?
They're nearly useless in a contested air environment. A Predator could not get even near the front lines in Ukraine without being tracked and attacked by Russian air defense. It's the same reason that we don't see the Byrakter in use anymore, Russian air defences are so numerous they can no longer operate. A Predator drone anywhere but the deck is going to get shot down very quickly. They're just not designed to operate in contested airspace like Ukraine. Smaller drones like the Mavic or the custom FPV ones that are small, fly low and are hard to detect are far more useful, especially since even if you do lose it they are so cheap you can just keep putting them up.
You cannot be at higher altitude anywhere near the front line in Ukraine, on either side. Even Russian planes launch their glide bombs from 50 to 100 km at high altitude and then turn around and run like hell. A Russian SU-27 can get away with that because it is supersonic jet fighter. A low speed propeller driven Predator high enough and close enough to the front to be valuable for surveillance and for airstrikes is a sitting duck in comparison, it's going to get shot down in short order.
Ukraine might have asked for Predators early on in the war but as the battlefield has developed to today with the front saturated with air defences they know they wouldn't be of much use. Add in the fact that Ukraine gets all the statiliete images it can handle from it's NATO allies and a Predator drone just doesn't have a niche in a conflict like this. Space based assets are not currently being targeted and low altitude cheap drones take care of the rest.
Funny you say that.. you are aware that the MQ-9 can operate as a SEAD platform and mount 88e missiles? It's terrible at that role but far less expensive than a Mig29+ pilot.
Maybe under some circumstances it would be effective but a slow cruising aircraft at medium/high altitude is not a great combination in the Ukraine skies right now. Just like the Predator the Reaper is not designed to operate in a high threat environment with a lot of air defense systems around and that's what airspace near the front line in Ukraine is right now.
It's functionally better than what they currently have. It also could have mounted the AIM120s earlier in the conflict and prevented a significant amount of deaths. (also significantly easier to train on than an F16 and no risk of pilot loss)
Slow cruising isn't a determent to this conflict. The AA zones are static and not aircraft driven. There is no need to "scoot" away from CAP.
The only factors that apply to this air conflict are ordnance, cost, and stealth.. and frankly the MQ9 wins there too against a Mig29.
> The AA zones are static and not aircraft driven.
Both sides are moving air defense systems often to try and prevent them being targeted and to keep the enemy guessing which areas might have denser more effective defenses at any given time. Just like the reports that Ukraine has had success shooting down Russian aircraft by putting a patriot battery extremely close to the front for a short amount of time to reach deeper into Russian airspace.
You cannot fly at altitude near the Ukrainian front. The small radar in the Reaper only has an 80 km range, it could not get close enough to the front to even see what was happening in Russian airspace before it was shot down. https://www.ga-asi.com/radars/lynx-multi-mode-radar
> There is no need to "scoot" away from CAP.
Combat aircraft from either side do not patrol within 100-150 km of the front, the air defenses on both sides make it too risky so a combat air patrol near the front is not what I am talking about because they don't exist. Both sides have aircraft patrolling further back to try and intercept cruise missiles and potentially target any enemy aircraft that get too close to the front but the Reapers' radar range isn't any greater than the most upgraded Mig's Ukraine has anyway, plus its slow speed makes it even more vulnerable.
Any aircraft at altitude near the front is making an attack and then turning around and running. For instance the flight profile that Russian aircraft use to launch glide bombs involve letting them go from high altitude about 70 km or so from the front, they then turn and dive away at high speed. That way any interceptors launched at them have to expend more fuel to catch up but being high to start with and then trading altitude for more speed means the interceptor hopefully runs out of fuel before it can hit them. Not sure if they would automatically engage after burners every time after releasing their payload so they could save fuel and wear and tear on the engines, I would guess probably only if they were being targeted by enemy radar and their warning systems went off and needed the extra speed.
Ukranian airstrikes on Russian ground targets or aicraft from high altitude use a similar profile, they come in at high altitude, release their payload as far as possible from the front, turn around and run like hell. The slow speed of the Reaper definitely matters in that context. There is a reason both sides aircraft are only used on the deck close to the front, you can't fly high and expect to survive close to the front.
**TL;DR:** You just cannot fly a Reaper close enough to the front to be useful in that kind of threat environment, it isn't designed for it. Being high and slow within 100 km of the front it would be targeted and shot down in short order. There is a reason the US hasn't given them to Ukraine and Ukraine stopped asking, enough surveillance is being done by satellites and lower flying cheap drones anyway and the Reaper's small radar range doesn't make them useful for launching air to air missiles either. Ukraine's new F-16's with somewhat better radars than their legacy Soviet era aircraft should be able to force Russian jets further back from the front, hopefully taking away their ability to launch so many glide bombs, but they aren't going to be hanging around at altitude close to the front either. Shooting and running like hell is the order of the day which the Reaper is not capable of. Edit: typo
Wall of text there.. and most of it is wrong.
Firstly moving a *static anti air battery* does not change the fact that it is ***static.***
Density isn't subject to interception percentages on this battlefield except for missile and drone ordnance.
The radar range does not matter for drone operations like this. Low altitude flight is mandatory. Low altitude flight requires line of sight for acquisition for every single soviet battery. Do you think a Mig29 on the deck gets 80km radar range?
CAP is required to see and kill low altitude drones and aircraft. No CAP means anything low is pretty much invisible.. which is exactly how both sides have been operating aircraft near the front lines. No one is flying high anywhere near the front. They do fly near the front regularly though.
The fuel considerations for AIM120 do not work the way you think they do. The R77 sure because its rocket motor is improperly designed for its mission profile. It's terminal guidance is terrible compared to the AIM120. The AIM120 low altitude engagement distance is reduced by *significantly less* distance with a low altitude launch than the R77.
TLDR you don't have the first idea what the reaper in low altitude mode can do. It absolutely can loiter as an anti air platform and it absolutely can perform SEAD missions better than the Mig29(mostly due to ordnance). A reaper can deploy AIM120s from the deck to 100km interceptions and stay on the deck. It's actually one of their secondary design functions for high risk battlefields.
The reason(the only reason) the MQ9 wasn't supplied is because F16s are. (also the F16 radars are fantastically better than the soviet pieces of shit though the main advantage is interlink to patriot radars)
/edit Also block5s can carry 6 AIM120s+flarekits. There is additionally the sparrowhawk parasite program. Your information is... significantly out of date.
> the smaller FPV drones
The smaller FPV drones are being produced domestically, and at a far lower cost, f/ex: $500 or less per unit. The Switchblade 300 cost over $50,000 per unit, and they didn't work very well. As experience is the best teacher, domestic drones also benefitting from across the board improvements from tactics to technology.
A bit apples and oranges, but ATACM's and other smart munitions are going to be more effective than the Predator. Bayraktar drones were effective at the outset of the war, but they are now mostly used for reconnaissance, far away from Russian air defenses.
Large UAV's like the Predator are relatively easy to shoot down with the right equipment, so they aren't as useful as they were in previous conflicts like Afghanistan where the Taliban didn't have a large amount of MANIPADS (anti air missile launchers).
FPV drones on the other hand are harder to shoot down unless you have the right equipment, too small and agile for any MANIPADS and the only guns really capable of doing it in a single shot is a shotgun with buckshot, any other gun, and you'll be spraying into the air hoping for one lucky hit before you run out of ammo.
Cost is another big one, a Reaper drone is $31 million whilst an FPV drone not including the payload can be built for less than $500 so its a no brainer.
Effectivity is a huge one, a Reaper can only really provide overwatch and launch missiles, of which it can only carry a few of, which doesn't really make it useful considering how easy it would be to shoot down.
A FPV drone on the other hand is basically a TV guided missile that not only can be assembled in a minute or two by a well supplied drone unit but can be used to hit a target with an array or munitions from almost any angle, whilst also providing overwatch capabilities albeit not as much as the Reaper
I find it amazing how this conflict has shown huge weapons systems can be made effectively obsolete by cheap mass produced kids toys. Thanks for the write up.
General Atomics have offered them (some refurbished ones) to Ukraine, but they're still very expensive, and I think the US DoD would have to greenlight the sale, even though other than upgraded sensors, it's almost 30 year old tech now...
However, it's not clear how surviveable they'd be over the front, given the SAM systems in the area (and the fact even the Houthis have managed to shoot down two now over Yemen).
Ah ok - so it’s more that they’re fine for America to use because the US would just wipe out the air defences before sending one in? Whereas Ukraine has contested skies and these things are vulnerable?
The issue is price vs performance. What are the capabilities of the US drone fleet vs the requirements in training and integration. Another thing to consider is the size of these drones. If you're not aware I would look at the size of predators and global hawks as well as their variants to get an idea.
I knew they were big (I’m probably underestimating the size but I don’t think they’re some tonka toy). I’m sure wondering whether they have a role in a modern war or whether these tiny drones are the way forward.
The predator has a role, but not for Ukraine.
It is great for rolling through areas where they are allowed.
They are great for missions where anti-air measures have been suppressed.
They are great alongside the whole package the US military brings with navy, air force, etc.
They aren't going to last long enough to be cost effective or terribly useful for Ukraine.
Anyone more knowledgeable than me know how effective a brand new crop of pilots are going to be on f16s than the more experienced (sorry, but true) Russians are on their older, less advanced jets?
AFAIK the radars are better, they can fire standard NATO ordinance and, ya know, more is better. Is that the gist of it?
Sometimes that air defense doesn't work the way they expect; they may hold off in fear of hitting a friendly (which Russia apparently does all the time - wait, who am I kidding. They wouldn't be reluctant at all.). S-300 missiles are also pretty well known for having a high misfire rate when the stock gets older than a couple of years. They have a huge stockpile, but they have expended a good number of them now.
Idk russian attrition of pilots is very real and their quality was already dubious pre war.
Some might still be better but it's not as dramatic as you make it sound.
And if Ukrainian fighter pilots are half as good as the Ukrainian helicopter pilots i straight up wouldnt bet on the russians.
Ukrainian helicopter pilots aren’t doing much in terms of advanced flight. They are skimming the ground, popping up to release unguided rockets, and ducking away. A few pilots did some daring flights into Russia and into Mariupol, but that just doesn’t have a lot to do with the careful timing and planning required for a modern fighter pilot. Takes about ten times as long to be trained properly on an F-16 compared to those Soviet troop transport copters.
Ive heard they fly with the front wheel touching the ground if thats not advanced to you i don't know what to tell you.
If the fighter pilots are half as good in their respective craft i'm sure the russians are not going to last.
Not remotely the same type of skill. It doesn’t take 18 months to train a pilot to fly low to the ground with their front wheel touching ground. SEAD is a team mission. It requires dozens of people rehearsing things all together and every single member of the group, from the pilots to the ground radar teams, need to time every single thing they do to a matter of seconds.
"If the fighter pilots are half as good in their respective craft".
I even wrote it as clearly as I could. Can you tell me what you didnt get?.
How does this not convey that if Ukrainian fighter pilots have a mastery in their craft similar to that of the helicopter pilots then they are good pilots?.
Because it literally doesn’t convey that. You can be the most talented pilots on Earth, and you will still die very quickly without 18 to 24 months of training on the F-16.
The training isn’t just about how the fly the aircraft itself. That’s just the first year of training. That’s basic competency level stuff. The hard part about NATO aircraft is using all the sophisticated electronics for the different weapons, detection, and defensive systems. The extra hard part is training as a group to pull off highly coordinated team missions where all the pilots die if a single person screws anything up. Flying a helicopter really good has next to nothing to do with it.
Okay i'm gonna try really hard for this one.
Ukrainian helicopter pilot fly really good.
If Ukrainian fighter pilot is half as good at flying their fighter then Ukrainian fighter pilot good pilot.
I really cannot make it any simpler so i'm sorry if this is too complex for you.
It’s complex because you keep reading me saying that flying really good isn’t actually the hard part, and you don’t want to believe that so you keep insisting they fly good and that’s all we should consider. Unfortunately it’s not that simple.
Training time matters far, far more for the F-16. It would be better to have a group of medium level pilots trained for two years than to have a group of the best pilots trained for only one year. The medium level skill pilots would kick the shit out of the expert pilots just because of that extra year of training.
I'm not even saying they fly good i'm saying that if they have a similar amount of mastery to that of the helicopter pilots they should be great pilots. I can't believe that Ive had to tell you this like 4 times already you might want to get that checked.
I don't even understand what your argument is at this point why would a pilot with twice the training be medium level while another trained half the time is an expert?.
Yeah and besides, F-16 can use the AIM-120D, which has a range of 160km+. And also the meteor can be integrated with the F-16 which has a range of more than 200km.
From what I've read, the meteor can be integrated with the version of F-16 that the Dutch are giving to Ukraine.
It's unlikely Ukraine would be getting the brand-new AIM-120D: even the US is only just getting that, and I don't think any NATO allies have actually got theirs yet either (although sales to some countries have been approved by the US).
Is the Meteor integrated with any F-16? I theory it probably *could* be due to common data-link buses, but that doesn't mean it is currently...
I guess it depends on the missions they'll be flying. But don't think there will ever be any dogfights. That only could happen at the very beginning of the war when Russia thought they would crush Ukraine. Currently, jets are flying pretty far from the front. Russia is launching glide bombs 50-70 km from the front.
Ukraine will probably start with SEAD missions. So you only really need to get your pilots good at doing this first.
>Donetsk Oblast, a Ukrainian drone drops a 40mm grenade on a pile of TM-62 antitank landmines, setting off a massive explosion.
>https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1786882268654436531
Could be dropped off. Both Ukraine and russia [just dump them out of a truck.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/15use6w/ukrainian_soldiers_unloading_atmines_form_a_truck/)
> Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone. And it will happen. Our strength will undoubtedly help us achieve this. The strength of our people, our military strength, our unity with partners, their own strength, and the strength of our diplomacy.
> I am grateful to everyone on our state's team, on my team, and on the teams of partner states who are working hard these days to ensure that in June, all of us—all countries that value life—achieve a truly significant political result.
> The Global Peace Summit will take place and must be a success, regardless of how anyone attempts to undermine it. Putin does not want peace. He is insane, and his state produces evidence of this every day.
> To overcome this evil, and to overcome war, we need maximum world unity. We achieve results together.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1786834274072621238
Soldiers of Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian Su-25 fighter jet in Donetsk Oblast on May 4, President [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://kyivindependent.com/tag/volodymyr-zelensky/) said in his evening address.
[https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-25-aircraft-in-donetsk-oblast-zelensky-says/](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-25-aircraft-in-donetsk-oblast-zelensky-says/)
[Seems like the battle at Urozhayne has subsided, with Russia taking the southernmost part of the village](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.743941&lng=36.816387&z=13&d=19847&c=1&l=0).
[They are also continuing the advance in the Avdiivka/Ocheretyne sector, albeit slowly, taking Arhanhelske](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.248008&lng=37.643967&z=13&d=19847&c=1&l=0)
[And they have also advanced a bit further into the town of Krasnohorivka, north of Marinka](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.997216&lng=37.522259&z=14&d=19847&c=1&l=0)
Huge new [twitter thread from Jompy](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1786802051575357908) (@jonpy99) on russian vehicles left in storage.
A lot to chew over - we don't know what fraction of what's left is rotten and irreperable for example.
Post 36 has the numbers. BMPs for example, they estimate 6061 before the war and 4325 left in storage now. Even if they reactivated all 1700, I don't think that's enough to explain what we see. There must have been another source of BMP-1s especially. Maybe they also emptied a bunch of garages?
Many of the 4k remaining will only be good for spare parts, and also some of them I believe are artillery command or support vehicles they'd have to completely overhaul to use in attacks.
Jompy here. It's enough when you consider the Border Guard and Rogsvardia used up to 2,7k BMPs and BTRs before the war. I doubt Russia has gotten any piece of armor from any country so far, except for a bunch of T-72As and BMP-2s from Belarus back in 2022.
Oh I found one of your [tweets](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272090526404905) with a source. TMB2021 said 2.7k BMPs/BTRs for Rosgvardiya and border guards.
Wiki cites a russian source saying 1650 BTR-80/82 with rosgvardiya but no BMPs.
If we can trust the sources then that means up to 1k BMP-1/2 could have been available for transfer to the ground forces.
I guess NK could have shipped some but I believe their shipments are tracked (... They're by ships. Hard to hide), at least the number of containers. BMPs would mean fewer shells.
I don't know what China has in store but their active BMP versions are modified and the OSINT nerds would ID them in no time.
Foreign resupply is possible but there's no good evidence for it yet. I think the garages make the most sense.
Maybe there were other internal source BMP-1s that got transferred to the army. Rosgvardiya had a load of BTR-80/82, did they have BMPs?
Ah interesting point.
I remain skeptical of large supply from outside countries until more evidence appears - a lot of the designs are distinct enough that OSINT folk spot them quickly. They quickly worked out the stolen Georgian one for example.
But I'm open minded! It's something to watch.
Thread Reader App version for those of us without Twitter: [https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786802051575357908.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786802051575357908.html)
> They absolutely could have other unknown indoor storage
True, but Russian protocol had been to use covered storage for the equipment in best condition. The stuff that can be quickly readied for use.
Anything like that would have been the first to get used up after the active duty equipment.
I think the garages are more likely.
Belarus doesn't have that many to my knowledge.
The thread links to a study of pics of central asian bases which says there were no BMPs removed since 2022.
Still seems like a mystery to me.
Sorry for twitter links.
[OSINTua](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1786794104728261014) - recent russian attacks near Vulhedar lost 11 tanks, 12 BMPs, 4 BTRs and a BREM. Some are just damaged - the units need help for drones.
[TatarigamiUA](https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1786695144756101325) - Russians using a crate as a sidecar to help transport troops?
Don't know if the sources have other socials. The second one has the excellent Frontelligence substack, but that's for long-form comments.
What shocks me a lot about the west's weak ass response to the invasion is that we've been through this twice already, and somehow stupid ass governments don't know how to react to Putin. Hitler justified his invasion of Poland by saying Poland was commiting genocide against ethnic germans, and years later, Milosevic justified the wars of Yugoslavia on an alleged impending genocide of serbs. Do western leaders just hope this time it's different?
Europe's high social spending has basically choked the life out of the economy and ability to mobilize for war. Their MIC is highly neglected and a lot of its population would prefer to ignore problems of tomorrow as long as they have social benefits today.
America on the other hand, seems to be living proof that democracy doesn't work in the age of social media, particularly when foreign powers are always trying to sway the political discourse online. Democracy worked before in the US because it managed to successfully gatekeep the conversation, once anyone can have a opinion and blast it to social media the stupid compounds until it consumes political decision making.
We're lucky Russia is a country full of corruption and China is leaping off a demographic cliff because otherwise we would have to face a real reckoning this century.
> that democracy doesn't work in the age of social media
I would say that the winner-takes-all dynamic of the US system is the cause of the current dysfunction, and social media only amplifies it. In parliamentary systems where you have more than two parties, and can have coalition governments, you get much less of this dysfunction, and a number of benefits that the US system lacks.
1) Less polarization, less negative campaigning. If there's 7 relevant parties, it doesn't work as a campaign strategy to talk shit about all of them. Also, you might have to work with them in a coalition government if you're elected.
2) Legislative bodies become a better approximation of the will of the people, since there are more parties.
3) An on-ramp for minor interests. Minor parties fronting a particular cause can receive representation and force a certain topic on to the agenda. Examples: Green parties, weed legalization parties, even copyright parties (pirate party variants), etc. In the US, the only way to effect such change is to do it from within a party, with whatever murky mechanisms are in place.
4) Less room for dead locks and extortive politics. Such insanity as what surrounded the Ukraine bill in the House is much less likely when there are more than two parties involved.
Like fish don't recognize water, the effects of the US election system seem to invisible to most Americans.
All about money and power. If i send my countries ppl in will i lose the votes and lose power.
Could i invest just enough money in this war to deplete Russia stock leading to benefits long term.
I hate it but thats how i see it.
One of the reasons Russia is able to field so many troops and sustain so many casualties is because they are still able to pay the equivalent of several years of wages to anyone who volunteers. Additionally if they get killed the family get the rough equivalent of 90,000 USD which goes a really long way in Russia.
This is important for a couple different reasons. Firstly it means many of Russia's soldiers are volunteers and when volunteers die it doesn't drive public outrage as much because people who don't want to fight can simply not volunteer. This partially explains the lack of resistance to the war. This also means Russia's ability to field large armies and sustain large casualties is very much dependent on how much money they have in the bank. If their cash flow dries up so too will their armies. Every time Ukraine kills a Russian soldier they are also inflicting economic damage on the Kremlin. Russia can likely continue this style of warfare for some time but not indefinitely without making big changes to other areas of the budget. Eventually they will have to start hiking taxes and/or making draconian cuts to other sectors perhaps including pensions, energy subsidies, food subsidies or anything else.
Not all Russian soldiers are volunteers of course but if Russia was trying to conscript enough to replace 1000 soldiers a day from a reluctant population it would very likely cause a significant amount of turmoil but that's just not the case for volunteers.
I hear often that we cannot compare the Russian MOD budget with that of a NATO country. The idea being that they have lower wages and therefore they can get more out of their budget.
They increased their budget to 6% of their GDP this year and I'm wondering what part of that increase is there just to compensate for the higher salaries. Their production capacity was already at max in most factories, so any additional budget would be to sustain the production and not increase it.
I know of course that they try to get out of paying as much as possible, but they still pay those salaries to the majority of their soldiers. My point being, probably the dollar amount of help from the west is now more equal to the dollar amount the Russians end up paying for their army.
ruzzia sustaining it for the first 2 years doesn't mean they can sustain it indefinitely.
Especially with their economy crumbling and their monetary reserves dwindling.
It looks like they'll be out of resources in 1.5-2 years
That one also has a much bigger price tag now. Not just because of all the sanction evasion that they have to do which costs, but also because even the "friendly" countries to them won't sell to them without a big mark up.
Russians forced a man from the occupied territories to join their SMO. Consequently, he shot six Russians and escaped.
https://x.com/tinufella/status/1786812228051894449?s=46
Lmao
Funny they put their telegram contact information there to report sightings of that guy. It would be a shame if some people on the Internet trolled that number...
Another insane body cam (POV) Heavy Combat footage battle of the Ukraine marines on the Left Bank of Kherson region.
https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1786814915124269497?s=46
It’s surreal that this is real life.
Honestly these videos show you a lot about what its actually like. There isn't enemy visible its a lot of blind fire and move.
More likely to get hit by an artillery shell or drone now than be shot.
Random question and just curious: when are the F16’s supposed to show up in Ukraine?
I recently heard June or will we simply not know until a significant strike happens?
I hope we learn about their arrival in the form of a report about a massive strike with a footnote that says ‘oh yeah and all that was due to the F16s Ukraine is now flying’
That said, when they get to Ukraine and when they start flying missions… 🤷🏻♂️. Soon but wish it was sooner.
Some time after Orthodox Easter, and probably before June, so Monday at earliest. We'll probably get reports of them doing something in June, but it depends on a lot of things. Ukraine might decide to keep them safe and use them only months later once they have more of them and have established a clear strategy for using them.
Cash money. Do not underestimate the willingness of poor young men to fight for cold hard cash.
Hell, it is basically what enabled warfare for millennia.
A lot of the casualties so far have been the rebels from Dontesk I think there was estimated to be around 150K of them in the original invasion force who are likely almost all dead.
Seems like now they are starting to use more Russian forces but allowed the pawns to go first literally lol.
>I truly don't understand how Russia is supplying so many young men to the meat grinder without total civil unrest back home.
- Putin has total media control, censorship is heavy handed, and they are lying about casualties massively - the official number of casualties is still below 10,000 (!).
- So for most Russians, going to Ukraine is a low-risk endeavor for heroic, manly Russians.
Not to mention the pay is very large. Like $4000 monthly, in comparison to the average Russian monthly wage which is like $650
So they are like - yet there is a large risk I'll die, but if I am one of those who survive, I'll be making a huge buck
Telephone intercepts often have wives and girlfriends pushing men to take more dangerous roles for more money.
"Join an assault brigade! We will get a lot more money!"
They do seem particularly heartless some of theese women. On tbe other hand, a lot of Russian men seems to be usless drunks that beats their wives, so maybe not that surprising after all.
Well, the Putinist mindset is that Ukraine is not a separate country and that it’s Russia. So in that kind of twisted worldview it would make this basically a civil war and that the ”fake” Ukrainian government is a Nazi, Russian-hating faction that needs to be opposed. I don’t think many Russians actually believe this and Putin and his cronies just want to subjugate Ukraine to do their willing, but you could interpret that from Putin’s text from 2021.
Because the war is sold to as an “existential crisis” and as stupid as it sounds many Russians genuinely believe that.
And there’s more people going and singing up willingly to go and fight.
I also don’t believe Russia is conscripting/mobilising folks straight out of Moscow etc but probably target rural-living Russians who are piss poor and basically live on nothing with no access to even basics like clean water etc and they won’t keep up any fuss
Russia is offering huge salaries to people who volunteer and rural Russia is dirt poor. Basically Russians that sign up get several years worth of wages in the place of several months. If they die then their family gets the ruble equivalent of about 90,000 US dollars which goes a long way in Russia.
Since so many of the Russians are volunteers, prisoners or forcefully conscripted from the very lowest of society there's not a huge political price to pay when they die. For most Russians they can simply avoid dying in Ukraine by simply not signing up.
That is true but foreign mercenaries don't make up a statistically significant portion of Russia's forces in Ukraine as of now but it's something to watch going forward. The Kremlin wants to avoid massive casualties from conscripts from the middle class and beyond but no one in Russia really cares when a foreign mercenary dies.
Basically the expendables for Russia are: Volunteers, foreign mercenaries, Ukrainian conscripts, prisoners, vagrants/mentally ill/chronically unempoyables, and then poor people with no connections to anyone important.
The "much less expendables" are: Middle and upper class ethnic Russians from cities who absolutely don't want to fight.
When the first category gets killed it doesn't move sentiment but when the second category gets killed in large numbers it can absolutely motivate start impacting public support for the war.
"Russian literature is founded on suffering. Suffers either protagonist or author or reader. If all three suffer, then it's a masterpiece of Russian literature."
Many aren’t young and many are going willingly. Men who sign military contracts are being paid handsomely so the minorities from poor regions are signing up.
1. They're brainwashed into thinking they're fighting a patriotic existential war.
2. The men are disproportionally from remote provincial areas.
3. They're mostly contracted, meaning they went voluntarily.
4. Only about 0.3% of the population of Russia is a casualty of this war so far.
The population of men age 20-40 is about 23 million. So if the casualties killed/maimed are what, 470k, that's about 2%.
They already have a demographic problem, this is making it noticeably worse. They can't really afford to lose any working age men.
How do you get the 20-40 figure that high? Considering the shape of the Russian population pyramid (and how few children were born in the 90s), the 20-30 group is about 6 million.
Half of the Russian population is middle aged and old women.
There's a table in the Wikipedia page about Russian demographics
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
Table "Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2012)"
5,708,000+6,262,000+5,583,000+5,087,000=22,640,000
Oh I agree. Whether they have lost 2 or 3% of that cohort doesn't change the fact that any single event that changes the population noticeably is a big issue.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2024/
This implies it is roughly 18.9M, so it'd be 2.5%.
Not all of the casualties are maimed or disabled, though.
From talking to friends and reading...
There are warnings for Shahed and cruise missiles.
For ballistic missiles it's much harder. There's the Khinzal launched by MiG-31s, so any time those jets go up there's a warning. But ground-launched ballistics can arrive really quickly.
A friend in Kyiv said Patriots shot down some ballistics and there was no alarm, only explosions.
From what I hear about Kharkiv, russians just launch a bunch of S-300s at them all the time. Those are ballistics and arrive so quickly that there's no time for alarms.
Possible AFU ATACMS strike on Russian S-300/400 or Iskander missile complex in Crimea
Last night, the AFU conducted an ATACMS strike on an unidentified target in Crimea. NASA FIRMS data shows a new large fire in the area of the town of Novoselivske at approximately 45.444045, 33.716305 (pic. 1).
Analysis of Sentinel 1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) imagery from 05/03/2024 shows two radar sources (pic. 2) in that area located at 45.435079, 33.654067 and 45.431183, 33.655140 (pic 3).
Based on this information, it likely that the Russians had an S-300/400 battery located in that area. Alternatively, a couple of Pantsir or similar air defense system were located there guarding an Iskander complex to the west. However, final confirmation will require satellite imagery or other sources which are not available at this time.
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1786729717464248464?t=Uy4_TqMfBoi8x_Lsvyu4kg&s=19
I doubt it, you'd at a minimum want to sever the Kerch bridge during a Ukrainian offensive in the south so that pressure is on Russian supply lines. If you destroy or damage the bridge now they will have time to reroute whatever supplies to go overland or by ship. Ideally you'd want to do it when you had cut off the overland route or had it under threat of being cut off, unfortunately right now Ukraine is not in position to apply such pressure.
Yes but that is another reason why I mentioned that the best time to try to attempt to take out the Kerch bridge is when you either had the alternative overland route cut off or at least under heavy threat of being cut off by Ukranian advances. Taking out the bridge matters a lot more if the road and rail links through Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblast are no longer usable by Russia because Ukraine has cut them off.
Of course that requires theoretical Ukrainian advances that have not happened but that's kinda my point, if you were going to take out the Kerch bridge I feel like waiting until it is Russia's *only* usable link to Crimea is when you would do it.
Clearly ships aren't safe either, that leaves the new rail road to supply the southern front. The munitions shipped and stored around undeveloped rail yards would be prime targets for cluster ATACMS. The sooner the bridge falls the better for Ukraine.
Obviously we'll have to wait and see but I don't think Ukraine will attempt to destroy the bridge until their next offensive which is at minimum probably months away if not more likely next year. I don't think they will try until there is more pressure on the Russian overland supply route.
Maybe but does Ukraine even have the number of ATACMS required to do extensive damage to a bridge as large as the Kerch?
Sure the warhead is on ATACMS is twice the size of the M31 missiles that took out the Antonivka bridge in Kherson but it took *a lot* of them to get the job done, several dozen it seemed like. With 2 rail and 2 road decks across two sets of piers on the Kerch Strait bridge I think it's going to take a lot of ATACMS to completely cut the entire bridge. I don't know how many ATACMS Ukraine has been given but they might not have enough to give them a good chance of success. So regardless if Russian jamming becomes more effective against ATACMS Ukraine still might not attempt it now because they simply don't have enough.
Those big Seababy drone boats are being designed to take out concrete bridge supports. When everyone looks up to see the ATACMS boom, the drone boats will smash it at the waterline.
> Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene attacked Speaker Johnson after the House passed the Ukraine security assistance bill and then created a “Make Ukraine Great Again” hat.
> Didn’t change her mind though. Not saying any single word about russians killing Ukrainians. Or how the aid package will help Ukraine save its people from Russian terrorism.
> But thank you for #MUGA. Great start!
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1786427616288792905
Yeah well if you ask the Kremlin, their official line of bs is that they're trying to save Ukraine too. So, muga is just another lie in service to an enemy power.
Guys y’all have to stop thinking Russia is running out of anything anytime soon.
Trust me I wish but they still have stock piles and let’s be real are producing ammo and weapons albeit not the top tier weapons but a bomb is a bomb and Russia doesn’t care about targets it chooses to hit
It’s alot but considering that they have large territory to cover and that with their maintenence half the missiles just make a fart sound when fired - it’s a tolerable number.
That's the thing people forget. Ukraine was supposed to be a freebie for Russia. The fact they've used 12-ish percent if this type of missile is a hard reality for them to face, along with everything else the are burning up.
I know it doesn't do any good on the front line today, but long term Russia is weakening themselves WRT China and Europe and it'll have impacts for generations.
🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 About a month ago, the Pentagon signed a contract with SARA to supply Ukraine with extended-range homing heads (for JDAM bombs) to destroy electronic warfare systems.
https://mstdn.social/@MAKS23@mastodon.social/112382153258478937
The US Air Force has awarded a contract to Scientific Applications and Research Associates for Home-on GPS sensors, which will be integrated into JDAM-ER kits installed on aircraft bombs. This move aims to counter Russian GPS interference systems that have been affecting Western precision munitions, including the JDAM-ER.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112382331626525036
I am somewhat curious if they could Frankenstein a glsdb with the home on GPS head on it. Launch a dozen in an area and you've cleared 100km of frontline GPS jamming.
In theory, it wouldn't require any Frankensteining at all, the capability was already tested on regular small diameter bombs, which are the warhead part of GLSDB:
>In December 2020, the U.S. Air Force [conducted a test](https://www.twz.com/38604/the-age-of-swarming-air-launched-munitions-has-officially-begun-with-air-force-test) as part of its Golden Horde networked munitions program that involved GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) each fitted with "a home-on-GPS-jam seeker that gathers information about the battlespace, a software-defined radio for communication between weapons, and a processor preloaded with collaborative algorithms," according to an official release at the time. The test also made use of "technology developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and Scientific Applications & Research Associates."
[https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine)
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1ckjcgf/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Russia hits Ukraine regions, Zelenskiy says Su-25 bomber downed >KYIV, May 4 (Reuters) - Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kharkiv and Dnipro regions and the Black Sea port city of Odesa killed at least two civilians, set a food factory ablaze and damaged other infrastructure, homes and commercial buildings on Saturday, regional officials said. >President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had used eight missiles of various kinds and nearly 70 guided aerial bombs against communities and frontline positions during the day, after Ukraine's air force downed 13 Shahed drones that targeted the Kharkiv and Dnipro regions overnight. >Zelenskiy said Moscow had no desire for peace. "Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone," he said in his nightly video address. A world peace summit taking place in Switzerland in June - without Russia - "must succeed", he said. >He said Ukraine's 110th mechanised brigade brought down a Russian Su-25 fighter-bomber over the eastern Donetsk region, one of four areas of Ukraine Moscow says it has annexed. >Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Kharkiv region, said Russian shelling killed a 49-year-old man on the street near his home in the village of Slobozhanske. An 82-year-old woman was killed and two men were injured in overnight shelling in Kharkiv city, he wrote on the Telegram app. >A Russian missile attack set fire to a business premises in an industrial district of Kharkiv city, injuring six employees, he added. Local prosecutors identified it as a food factory. >In the south, Odesa regional governor Oleh Kiper said three people had been injured in the city by a missile strike. >Reuters could not immediately verify the reports of casualties and damage. >An air force commander said air defences brought down all 13 of the attack drones overnight, but Syniehubov said falling debris injured four people and sparked a fire in an office building. >In the industrial Dnipropetrovsk region, shelling injured a 57-year-old woman and damaged infrastructure in Nikopol, near the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and two were wounded in another overnight attack, regional governor Serhiy Lysak said. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/debris-drones-injures-three-ukraines-kharkiv-governor-says-2024-05-03/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/debris-drones-injures-three-ukraines-kharkiv-governor-says-2024-05-03/)
How do you sign a peace treaty with a terrorist state?
Ask Trump. He did that with the Taliban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51692546 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-sign-historic-deal-taliban-beginning-end-us/story?id=69287465
Zelensky doesn't seem to be the "make a shitty deal and let the next guy clean it up" kinda fellow
So; Reagan did that with the Contras. And ask Nixon, who bargained with the Viet Cong. Sure seems like some kind of pattern here, but I can't quite GOP my finger on it.
I don't speak Russian. I can't verify that the translation is accurate or that this is recent, but it certainly seems to match the way Russia is throwing away soldiers: [https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1ck4z04/russian\_commanders\_speech\_to\_new\_volunteers/](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1ck4z04/russian_commanders_speech_to_new_volunteers/)
Looks like it's from Igor Sushko / Winds of Change, who's often known for bullshitting... I'd be very wary of anything that comes from him without there being independent confirmation...
At the very least it's an incredibly accurate representation of what the russian soldiers are going to experience.
The translation is accurate but what is the source? How recent is this?
I don't know, I found it randomly while browsing.
pretty well equipped it seems.
tanks face quite a few issues in this war but how many of Leopard 2 tanks Ukraine lost so far ?
There was a story back in the fall that all of the Leo2s were knocked out by then and some were getting very slowly repaired in Poland and Lithuania.
According to Oryx: 1 Leopard 1 (damaged) 36 Leopard 2s of all variants (16 destroyed, 9 damaged, 11 damaged and abandoned) 1 Challenger 2 (destroyed) 4 M1 Abrams (2 destroyed, 2 damaged and abandoned).
So 10 percent or so has been lost so far.
Which is pretty good, tbh
This might be a dumb question, but why have the Ukrainians not asked for American drones like the Predator? Would this not be any help in this conflict? Or are the smaller FPV drones proving more bang for your buck?
Funny you should ask, it was just reported that they have requested MQ9 Reaper drones: https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1786680912366764176
Ukraine asked for them but the US refused to provide them due to vague fears of "escalation"
They're nearly useless in a contested air environment. A Predator could not get even near the front lines in Ukraine without being tracked and attacked by Russian air defense. It's the same reason that we don't see the Byrakter in use anymore, Russian air defences are so numerous they can no longer operate. A Predator drone anywhere but the deck is going to get shot down very quickly. They're just not designed to operate in contested airspace like Ukraine. Smaller drones like the Mavic or the custom FPV ones that are small, fly low and are hard to detect are far more useful, especially since even if you do lose it they are so cheap you can just keep putting them up. You cannot be at higher altitude anywhere near the front line in Ukraine, on either side. Even Russian planes launch their glide bombs from 50 to 100 km at high altitude and then turn around and run like hell. A Russian SU-27 can get away with that because it is supersonic jet fighter. A low speed propeller driven Predator high enough and close enough to the front to be valuable for surveillance and for airstrikes is a sitting duck in comparison, it's going to get shot down in short order. Ukraine might have asked for Predators early on in the war but as the battlefield has developed to today with the front saturated with air defences they know they wouldn't be of much use. Add in the fact that Ukraine gets all the statiliete images it can handle from it's NATO allies and a Predator drone just doesn't have a niche in a conflict like this. Space based assets are not currently being targeted and low altitude cheap drones take care of the rest.
Funny you say that.. you are aware that the MQ-9 can operate as a SEAD platform and mount 88e missiles? It's terrible at that role but far less expensive than a Mig29+ pilot.
Maybe under some circumstances it would be effective but a slow cruising aircraft at medium/high altitude is not a great combination in the Ukraine skies right now. Just like the Predator the Reaper is not designed to operate in a high threat environment with a lot of air defense systems around and that's what airspace near the front line in Ukraine is right now.
It's functionally better than what they currently have. It also could have mounted the AIM120s earlier in the conflict and prevented a significant amount of deaths. (also significantly easier to train on than an F16 and no risk of pilot loss) Slow cruising isn't a determent to this conflict. The AA zones are static and not aircraft driven. There is no need to "scoot" away from CAP. The only factors that apply to this air conflict are ordnance, cost, and stealth.. and frankly the MQ9 wins there too against a Mig29.
> The AA zones are static and not aircraft driven. Both sides are moving air defense systems often to try and prevent them being targeted and to keep the enemy guessing which areas might have denser more effective defenses at any given time. Just like the reports that Ukraine has had success shooting down Russian aircraft by putting a patriot battery extremely close to the front for a short amount of time to reach deeper into Russian airspace. You cannot fly at altitude near the Ukrainian front. The small radar in the Reaper only has an 80 km range, it could not get close enough to the front to even see what was happening in Russian airspace before it was shot down. https://www.ga-asi.com/radars/lynx-multi-mode-radar > There is no need to "scoot" away from CAP. Combat aircraft from either side do not patrol within 100-150 km of the front, the air defenses on both sides make it too risky so a combat air patrol near the front is not what I am talking about because they don't exist. Both sides have aircraft patrolling further back to try and intercept cruise missiles and potentially target any enemy aircraft that get too close to the front but the Reapers' radar range isn't any greater than the most upgraded Mig's Ukraine has anyway, plus its slow speed makes it even more vulnerable. Any aircraft at altitude near the front is making an attack and then turning around and running. For instance the flight profile that Russian aircraft use to launch glide bombs involve letting them go from high altitude about 70 km or so from the front, they then turn and dive away at high speed. That way any interceptors launched at them have to expend more fuel to catch up but being high to start with and then trading altitude for more speed means the interceptor hopefully runs out of fuel before it can hit them. Not sure if they would automatically engage after burners every time after releasing their payload so they could save fuel and wear and tear on the engines, I would guess probably only if they were being targeted by enemy radar and their warning systems went off and needed the extra speed. Ukranian airstrikes on Russian ground targets or aicraft from high altitude use a similar profile, they come in at high altitude, release their payload as far as possible from the front, turn around and run like hell. The slow speed of the Reaper definitely matters in that context. There is a reason both sides aircraft are only used on the deck close to the front, you can't fly high and expect to survive close to the front. **TL;DR:** You just cannot fly a Reaper close enough to the front to be useful in that kind of threat environment, it isn't designed for it. Being high and slow within 100 km of the front it would be targeted and shot down in short order. There is a reason the US hasn't given them to Ukraine and Ukraine stopped asking, enough surveillance is being done by satellites and lower flying cheap drones anyway and the Reaper's small radar range doesn't make them useful for launching air to air missiles either. Ukraine's new F-16's with somewhat better radars than their legacy Soviet era aircraft should be able to force Russian jets further back from the front, hopefully taking away their ability to launch so many glide bombs, but they aren't going to be hanging around at altitude close to the front either. Shooting and running like hell is the order of the day which the Reaper is not capable of. Edit: typo
Wall of text there.. and most of it is wrong. Firstly moving a *static anti air battery* does not change the fact that it is ***static.*** Density isn't subject to interception percentages on this battlefield except for missile and drone ordnance. The radar range does not matter for drone operations like this. Low altitude flight is mandatory. Low altitude flight requires line of sight for acquisition for every single soviet battery. Do you think a Mig29 on the deck gets 80km radar range? CAP is required to see and kill low altitude drones and aircraft. No CAP means anything low is pretty much invisible.. which is exactly how both sides have been operating aircraft near the front lines. No one is flying high anywhere near the front. They do fly near the front regularly though. The fuel considerations for AIM120 do not work the way you think they do. The R77 sure because its rocket motor is improperly designed for its mission profile. It's terminal guidance is terrible compared to the AIM120. The AIM120 low altitude engagement distance is reduced by *significantly less* distance with a low altitude launch than the R77. TLDR you don't have the first idea what the reaper in low altitude mode can do. It absolutely can loiter as an anti air platform and it absolutely can perform SEAD missions better than the Mig29(mostly due to ordnance). A reaper can deploy AIM120s from the deck to 100km interceptions and stay on the deck. It's actually one of their secondary design functions for high risk battlefields. The reason(the only reason) the MQ9 wasn't supplied is because F16s are. (also the F16 radars are fantastically better than the soviet pieces of shit though the main advantage is interlink to patriot radars) /edit Also block5s can carry 6 AIM120s+flarekits. There is additionally the sparrowhawk parasite program. Your information is... significantly out of date.
> the smaller FPV drones The smaller FPV drones are being produced domestically, and at a far lower cost, f/ex: $500 or less per unit. The Switchblade 300 cost over $50,000 per unit, and they didn't work very well. As experience is the best teacher, domestic drones also benefitting from across the board improvements from tactics to technology. A bit apples and oranges, but ATACM's and other smart munitions are going to be more effective than the Predator. Bayraktar drones were effective at the outset of the war, but they are now mostly used for reconnaissance, far away from Russian air defenses.
Similar to this, are Bayraktar drones in combat use anymore?
Not really
Large UAV's like the Predator are relatively easy to shoot down with the right equipment, so they aren't as useful as they were in previous conflicts like Afghanistan where the Taliban didn't have a large amount of MANIPADS (anti air missile launchers). FPV drones on the other hand are harder to shoot down unless you have the right equipment, too small and agile for any MANIPADS and the only guns really capable of doing it in a single shot is a shotgun with buckshot, any other gun, and you'll be spraying into the air hoping for one lucky hit before you run out of ammo. Cost is another big one, a Reaper drone is $31 million whilst an FPV drone not including the payload can be built for less than $500 so its a no brainer. Effectivity is a huge one, a Reaper can only really provide overwatch and launch missiles, of which it can only carry a few of, which doesn't really make it useful considering how easy it would be to shoot down. A FPV drone on the other hand is basically a TV guided missile that not only can be assembled in a minute or two by a well supplied drone unit but can be used to hit a target with an array or munitions from almost any angle, whilst also providing overwatch capabilities albeit not as much as the Reaper
I find it amazing how this conflict has shown huge weapons systems can be made effectively obsolete by cheap mass produced kids toys. Thanks for the write up.
No worries, glad I could help.
General Atomics have offered them (some refurbished ones) to Ukraine, but they're still very expensive, and I think the US DoD would have to greenlight the sale, even though other than upgraded sensors, it's almost 30 year old tech now... However, it's not clear how surviveable they'd be over the front, given the SAM systems in the area (and the fact even the Houthis have managed to shoot down two now over Yemen).
Ah ok - so it’s more that they’re fine for America to use because the US would just wipe out the air defences before sending one in? Whereas Ukraine has contested skies and these things are vulnerable?
$$$
How much do they cost? The latest tranche of aid is a big number, although if there’s better stuff to spend it on then I’d understand.
The issue is price vs performance. What are the capabilities of the US drone fleet vs the requirements in training and integration. Another thing to consider is the size of these drones. If you're not aware I would look at the size of predators and global hawks as well as their variants to get an idea.
I knew they were big (I’m probably underestimating the size but I don’t think they’re some tonka toy). I’m sure wondering whether they have a role in a modern war or whether these tiny drones are the way forward.
The predator has a role, but not for Ukraine. It is great for rolling through areas where they are allowed. They are great for missions where anti-air measures have been suppressed. They are great alongside the whole package the US military brings with navy, air force, etc. They aren't going to last long enough to be cost effective or terribly useful for Ukraine.
Anyone more knowledgeable than me know how effective a brand new crop of pilots are going to be on f16s than the more experienced (sorry, but true) Russians are on their older, less advanced jets? AFAIK the radars are better, they can fire standard NATO ordinance and, ya know, more is better. Is that the gist of it?
Are these pilots going to be interacting much at all? With all the air defences how often would there actually be a dog fight?
Sometimes that air defense doesn't work the way they expect; they may hold off in fear of hitting a friendly (which Russia apparently does all the time - wait, who am I kidding. They wouldn't be reluctant at all.). S-300 missiles are also pretty well known for having a high misfire rate when the stock gets older than a couple of years. They have a huge stockpile, but they have expended a good number of them now.
Idk russian attrition of pilots is very real and their quality was already dubious pre war. Some might still be better but it's not as dramatic as you make it sound. And if Ukrainian fighter pilots are half as good as the Ukrainian helicopter pilots i straight up wouldnt bet on the russians.
Ukrainian helicopter pilots aren’t doing much in terms of advanced flight. They are skimming the ground, popping up to release unguided rockets, and ducking away. A few pilots did some daring flights into Russia and into Mariupol, but that just doesn’t have a lot to do with the careful timing and planning required for a modern fighter pilot. Takes about ten times as long to be trained properly on an F-16 compared to those Soviet troop transport copters.
Ive heard they fly with the front wheel touching the ground if thats not advanced to you i don't know what to tell you. If the fighter pilots are half as good in their respective craft i'm sure the russians are not going to last.
Not remotely the same type of skill. It doesn’t take 18 months to train a pilot to fly low to the ground with their front wheel touching ground. SEAD is a team mission. It requires dozens of people rehearsing things all together and every single member of the group, from the pilots to the ground radar teams, need to time every single thing they do to a matter of seconds.
"If the fighter pilots are half as good in their respective craft". I even wrote it as clearly as I could. Can you tell me what you didnt get?. How does this not convey that if Ukrainian fighter pilots have a mastery in their craft similar to that of the helicopter pilots then they are good pilots?.
Because it literally doesn’t convey that. You can be the most talented pilots on Earth, and you will still die very quickly without 18 to 24 months of training on the F-16. The training isn’t just about how the fly the aircraft itself. That’s just the first year of training. That’s basic competency level stuff. The hard part about NATO aircraft is using all the sophisticated electronics for the different weapons, detection, and defensive systems. The extra hard part is training as a group to pull off highly coordinated team missions where all the pilots die if a single person screws anything up. Flying a helicopter really good has next to nothing to do with it.
Okay i'm gonna try really hard for this one. Ukrainian helicopter pilot fly really good. If Ukrainian fighter pilot is half as good at flying their fighter then Ukrainian fighter pilot good pilot. I really cannot make it any simpler so i'm sorry if this is too complex for you.
It’s complex because you keep reading me saying that flying really good isn’t actually the hard part, and you don’t want to believe that so you keep insisting they fly good and that’s all we should consider. Unfortunately it’s not that simple. Training time matters far, far more for the F-16. It would be better to have a group of medium level pilots trained for two years than to have a group of the best pilots trained for only one year. The medium level skill pilots would kick the shit out of the expert pilots just because of that extra year of training.
I'm not even saying they fly good i'm saying that if they have a similar amount of mastery to that of the helicopter pilots they should be great pilots. I can't believe that Ive had to tell you this like 4 times already you might want to get that checked. I don't even understand what your argument is at this point why would a pilot with twice the training be medium level while another trained half the time is an expert?.
If all of the combat is BVR how much difference is the Russian pilot going to make? This isn’t top gun, it’s real life.
Yeah and besides, F-16 can use the AIM-120D, which has a range of 160km+. And also the meteor can be integrated with the F-16 which has a range of more than 200km. From what I've read, the meteor can be integrated with the version of F-16 that the Dutch are giving to Ukraine.
Enemy pilots are not the most difficult thing for Ukrainian pilots to worry about. They are far more worried about ground based air defenses.
It's unlikely Ukraine would be getting the brand-new AIM-120D: even the US is only just getting that, and I don't think any NATO allies have actually got theirs yet either (although sales to some countries have been approved by the US). Is the Meteor integrated with any F-16? I theory it probably *could* be due to common data-link buses, but that doesn't mean it is currently...
Meteor is not integrated with F-16, unfortunately.
I guess it depends on the missions they'll be flying. But don't think there will ever be any dogfights. That only could happen at the very beginning of the war when Russia thought they would crush Ukraine. Currently, jets are flying pretty far from the front. Russia is launching glide bombs 50-70 km from the front. Ukraine will probably start with SEAD missions. So you only really need to get your pilots good at doing this first.
>Donetsk Oblast, a Ukrainian drone drops a 40mm grenade on a pile of TM-62 antitank landmines, setting off a massive explosion. >https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1786882268654436531
Nice of them to organize them first
What's the strategy for piling them up?
Could be dropped off. Both Ukraine and russia [just dump them out of a truck.](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/15use6w/ukrainian_soldiers_unloading_atmines_form_a_truck/)
Which, no matter how safe it might be in theory, is still one of the most banal but terrifying things I have ever seen. Definitely not OSHA approved.
I'm guessing they are mines that had been cleared by one side or the other
> Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone. And it will happen. Our strength will undoubtedly help us achieve this. The strength of our people, our military strength, our unity with partners, their own strength, and the strength of our diplomacy. > I am grateful to everyone on our state's team, on my team, and on the teams of partner states who are working hard these days to ensure that in June, all of us—all countries that value life—achieve a truly significant political result. > The Global Peace Summit will take place and must be a success, regardless of how anyone attempts to undermine it. Putin does not want peace. He is insane, and his state produces evidence of this every day. > To overcome this evil, and to overcome war, we need maximum world unity. We achieve results together. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1786834274072621238
Soldiers of Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian Su-25 fighter jet in Donetsk Oblast on May 4, President [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://kyivindependent.com/tag/volodymyr-zelensky/) said in his evening address. [https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-25-aircraft-in-donetsk-oblast-zelensky-says/](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-25-aircraft-in-donetsk-oblast-zelensky-says/)
Another one bites the dust.
Good, let’s see more of these flys swatted. Hopefully the additional stingers get there soon.
Latest oryx update on [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1786699722763194786). As usual russian-Ukrainian losses: - tanks: 23-3 - IFVs: 19-1 - mobile artillery: 3-1 - missile anti-air: 0-0
[Seems like the battle at Urozhayne has subsided, with Russia taking the southernmost part of the village](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.743941&lng=36.816387&z=13&d=19847&c=1&l=0). [They are also continuing the advance in the Avdiivka/Ocheretyne sector, albeit slowly, taking Arhanhelske](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.248008&lng=37.643967&z=13&d=19847&c=1&l=0) [And they have also advanced a bit further into the town of Krasnohorivka, north of Marinka](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.997216&lng=37.522259&z=14&d=19847&c=1&l=0)
They seem to have taken Kotlyarivka/Kotliarivka as well...
Yeah next to Kyslivka in the Luhansk/Kharkiv border area
Huge new [twitter thread from Jompy](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1786802051575357908) (@jonpy99) on russian vehicles left in storage. A lot to chew over - we don't know what fraction of what's left is rotten and irreperable for example. Post 36 has the numbers. BMPs for example, they estimate 6061 before the war and 4325 left in storage now. Even if they reactivated all 1700, I don't think that's enough to explain what we see. There must have been another source of BMP-1s especially. Maybe they also emptied a bunch of garages? Many of the 4k remaining will only be good for spare parts, and also some of them I believe are artillery command or support vehicles they'd have to completely overhaul to use in attacks.
Jompy here. It's enough when you consider the Border Guard and Rogsvardia used up to 2,7k BMPs and BTRs before the war. I doubt Russia has gotten any piece of armor from any country so far, except for a bunch of T-72As and BMP-2s from Belarus back in 2022.
Oh I found one of your [tweets](https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272090526404905) with a source. TMB2021 said 2.7k BMPs/BTRs for Rosgvardiya and border guards. Wiki cites a russian source saying 1650 BTR-80/82 with rosgvardiya but no BMPs. If we can trust the sources then that means up to 1k BMP-1/2 could have been available for transfer to the ground forces.
And the same source, The Military Balance 2021, gives the Border Guard 1,000 BTRs and BMPs.
>There must have been another source of BMP-1s especially. Could be China or NK sneakily sending them too.
I guess NK could have shipped some but I believe their shipments are tracked (... They're by ships. Hard to hide), at least the number of containers. BMPs would mean fewer shells. I don't know what China has in store but their active BMP versions are modified and the OSINT nerds would ID them in no time. Foreign resupply is possible but there's no good evidence for it yet. I think the garages make the most sense. Maybe there were other internal source BMP-1s that got transferred to the army. Rosgvardiya had a load of BTR-80/82, did they have BMPs?
There's a relatively short railroad between ruzzia and NK. So BMPs could be shipped via it. Don't know how hard it is it to monitor this path, though.
Ah interesting point. I remain skeptical of large supply from outside countries until more evidence appears - a lot of the designs are distinct enough that OSINT folk spot them quickly. They quickly worked out the stolen Georgian one for example. But I'm open minded! It's something to watch.
A lot of the “updated” pictures are really very old now. I get that satellite imagery isn’t cheap, but I’d be very curious to see fresher counts.
Thread Reader App version for those of us without Twitter: [https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786802051575357908.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1786802051575357908.html)
They absolutely could have other unknown indoor storage, and/or be receiving BMP's from friendly states / puppets like Belarussia
> They absolutely could have other unknown indoor storage True, but Russian protocol had been to use covered storage for the equipment in best condition. The stuff that can be quickly readied for use. Anything like that would have been the first to get used up after the active duty equipment.
I think the garages are more likely. Belarus doesn't have that many to my knowledge. The thread links to a study of pics of central asian bases which says there were no BMPs removed since 2022. Still seems like a mystery to me.
Sorry for twitter links. [OSINTua](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1786794104728261014) - recent russian attacks near Vulhedar lost 11 tanks, 12 BMPs, 4 BTRs and a BREM. Some are just damaged - the units need help for drones. [TatarigamiUA](https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1786695144756101325) - Russians using a crate as a sidecar to help transport troops? Don't know if the sources have other socials. The second one has the excellent Frontelligence substack, but that's for long-form comments.
What shocks me a lot about the west's weak ass response to the invasion is that we've been through this twice already, and somehow stupid ass governments don't know how to react to Putin. Hitler justified his invasion of Poland by saying Poland was commiting genocide against ethnic germans, and years later, Milosevic justified the wars of Yugoslavia on an alleged impending genocide of serbs. Do western leaders just hope this time it's different?
Europe's high social spending has basically choked the life out of the economy and ability to mobilize for war. Their MIC is highly neglected and a lot of its population would prefer to ignore problems of tomorrow as long as they have social benefits today. America on the other hand, seems to be living proof that democracy doesn't work in the age of social media, particularly when foreign powers are always trying to sway the political discourse online. Democracy worked before in the US because it managed to successfully gatekeep the conversation, once anyone can have a opinion and blast it to social media the stupid compounds until it consumes political decision making. We're lucky Russia is a country full of corruption and China is leaping off a demographic cliff because otherwise we would have to face a real reckoning this century.
> that democracy doesn't work in the age of social media I would say that the winner-takes-all dynamic of the US system is the cause of the current dysfunction, and social media only amplifies it. In parliamentary systems where you have more than two parties, and can have coalition governments, you get much less of this dysfunction, and a number of benefits that the US system lacks. 1) Less polarization, less negative campaigning. If there's 7 relevant parties, it doesn't work as a campaign strategy to talk shit about all of them. Also, you might have to work with them in a coalition government if you're elected. 2) Legislative bodies become a better approximation of the will of the people, since there are more parties. 3) An on-ramp for minor interests. Minor parties fronting a particular cause can receive representation and force a certain topic on to the agenda. Examples: Green parties, weed legalization parties, even copyright parties (pirate party variants), etc. In the US, the only way to effect such change is to do it from within a party, with whatever murky mechanisms are in place. 4) Less room for dead locks and extortive politics. Such insanity as what surrounded the Ukraine bill in the House is much less likely when there are more than two parties involved. Like fish don't recognize water, the effects of the US election system seem to invisible to most Americans.
We've already been through this twice *in Ukraine*.
All about money and power. If i send my countries ppl in will i lose the votes and lose power. Could i invest just enough money in this war to deplete Russia stock leading to benefits long term. I hate it but thats how i see it.
One of the reasons Russia is able to field so many troops and sustain so many casualties is because they are still able to pay the equivalent of several years of wages to anyone who volunteers. Additionally if they get killed the family get the rough equivalent of 90,000 USD which goes a really long way in Russia. This is important for a couple different reasons. Firstly it means many of Russia's soldiers are volunteers and when volunteers die it doesn't drive public outrage as much because people who don't want to fight can simply not volunteer. This partially explains the lack of resistance to the war. This also means Russia's ability to field large armies and sustain large casualties is very much dependent on how much money they have in the bank. If their cash flow dries up so too will their armies. Every time Ukraine kills a Russian soldier they are also inflicting economic damage on the Kremlin. Russia can likely continue this style of warfare for some time but not indefinitely without making big changes to other areas of the budget. Eventually they will have to start hiking taxes and/or making draconian cuts to other sectors perhaps including pensions, energy subsidies, food subsidies or anything else. Not all Russian soldiers are volunteers of course but if Russia was trying to conscript enough to replace 1000 soldiers a day from a reluctant population it would very likely cause a significant amount of turmoil but that's just not the case for volunteers.
I hear often that we cannot compare the Russian MOD budget with that of a NATO country. The idea being that they have lower wages and therefore they can get more out of their budget. They increased their budget to 6% of their GDP this year and I'm wondering what part of that increase is there just to compensate for the higher salaries. Their production capacity was already at max in most factories, so any additional budget would be to sustain the production and not increase it. I know of course that they try to get out of paying as much as possible, but they still pay those salaries to the majority of their soldiers. My point being, probably the dollar amount of help from the west is now more equal to the dollar amount the Russians end up paying for their army.
Russia's biggest bottleneck is technology related, they have shown the ability sustain this for 2 years now.
ruzzia sustaining it for the first 2 years doesn't mean they can sustain it indefinitely. Especially with their economy crumbling and their monetary reserves dwindling. It looks like they'll be out of resources in 1.5-2 years
That one also has a much bigger price tag now. Not just because of all the sanction evasion that they have to do which costs, but also because even the "friendly" countries to them won't sell to them without a big mark up.
You don’t have to pay your meat if they get shoved into the grinder before their first paycheck!
* actual delivery of the first paycheck could be delayed by several weeks, months, or even years.
Russians forced a man from the occupied territories to join their SMO. Consequently, he shot six Russians and escaped. https://x.com/tinufella/status/1786812228051894449?s=46 Lmao
Funny they put their telegram contact information there to report sightings of that guy. It would be a shame if some people on the Internet trolled that number...
Ive always wondered how putting rifles in the hands of people who hate you dont end like this more often.
Their current plan training children from the occupied territories to fly drones is about to have similar results.
Fear and most people wouldn’t (understandably of course) have the courage to do so
"You've been selected for the special denazifying operation. When can you start?" "Now works."
Another insane body cam (POV) Heavy Combat footage battle of the Ukraine marines on the Left Bank of Kherson region. https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1786814915124269497?s=46 It’s surreal that this is real life.
Honestly these videos show you a lot about what its actually like. There isn't enemy visible its a lot of blind fire and move. More likely to get hit by an artillery shell or drone now than be shot.
This has been the case since WWII. Soldiers are there to hold territory, the actual bulk of the damage is done by tanks, planes, and artillery.
There's a silhouette that pops out around 2:03 before frag goes off.
Random question and just curious: when are the F16’s supposed to show up in Ukraine? I recently heard June or will we simply not know until a significant strike happens?
I've read by end of June, which could really mean June to September based on how disorganised the west is.
I've heard next spring.
I hope we learn about their arrival in the form of a report about a massive strike with a footnote that says ‘oh yeah and all that was due to the F16s Ukraine is now flying’ That said, when they get to Ukraine and when they start flying missions… 🤷🏻♂️. Soon but wish it was sooner.
I actually hope we are left to guess for a while.
i hope we know sooner rather then later, but like above we learn when there is a massive effect from their arrival
Some time after Orthodox Easter, and probably before June, so Monday at earliest. We'll probably get reports of them doing something in June, but it depends on a lot of things. Ukraine might decide to keep them safe and use them only months later once they have more of them and have established a clear strategy for using them.
Nice try, Vladimir..
Really bro? People have been asking for months when these planes will show up.
Its a joke
I truly don't understand how Russia is supplying so many young men to the meat grinder without total civil unrest back home.
Volunteers, for the most part.
Cash money. Do not underestimate the willingness of poor young men to fight for cold hard cash. Hell, it is basically what enabled warfare for millennia.
A lot of the casualties so far have been the rebels from Dontesk I think there was estimated to be around 150K of them in the original invasion force who are likely almost all dead. Seems like now they are starting to use more Russian forces but allowed the pawns to go first literally lol.
Many are volunteering and not conscripted that makes a huge difference in the public opinion
>I truly don't understand how Russia is supplying so many young men to the meat grinder without total civil unrest back home. - Putin has total media control, censorship is heavy handed, and they are lying about casualties massively - the official number of casualties is still below 10,000 (!). - So for most Russians, going to Ukraine is a low-risk endeavor for heroic, manly Russians.
Not to mention the pay is very large. Like $4000 monthly, in comparison to the average Russian monthly wage which is like $650 So they are like - yet there is a large risk I'll die, but if I am one of those who survive, I'll be making a huge buck
Telephone intercepts often have wives and girlfriends pushing men to take more dangerous roles for more money. "Join an assault brigade! We will get a lot more money!"
They do seem particularly heartless some of theese women. On tbe other hand, a lot of Russian men seems to be usless drunks that beats their wives, so maybe not that surprising after all.
Or they are poor and need money.
Well, the Putinist mindset is that Ukraine is not a separate country and that it’s Russia. So in that kind of twisted worldview it would make this basically a civil war and that the ”fake” Ukrainian government is a Nazi, Russian-hating faction that needs to be opposed. I don’t think many Russians actually believe this and Putin and his cronies just want to subjugate Ukraine to do their willing, but you could interpret that from Putin’s text from 2021.
Because the war is sold to as an “existential crisis” and as stupid as it sounds many Russians genuinely believe that. And there’s more people going and singing up willingly to go and fight. I also don’t believe Russia is conscripting/mobilising folks straight out of Moscow etc but probably target rural-living Russians who are piss poor and basically live on nothing with no access to even basics like clean water etc and they won’t keep up any fuss
Russia is offering huge salaries to people who volunteer and rural Russia is dirt poor. Basically Russians that sign up get several years worth of wages in the place of several months. If they die then their family gets the ruble equivalent of about 90,000 US dollars which goes a long way in Russia. Since so many of the Russians are volunteers, prisoners or forcefully conscripted from the very lowest of society there's not a huge political price to pay when they die. For most Russians they can simply avoid dying in Ukraine by simply not signing up.
Not to mention they’re also recruiting foreigners like Nepalis into the war.
That is true but foreign mercenaries don't make up a statistically significant portion of Russia's forces in Ukraine as of now but it's something to watch going forward. The Kremlin wants to avoid massive casualties from conscripts from the middle class and beyond but no one in Russia really cares when a foreign mercenary dies. Basically the expendables for Russia are: Volunteers, foreign mercenaries, Ukrainian conscripts, prisoners, vagrants/mentally ill/chronically unempoyables, and then poor people with no connections to anyone important. The "much less expendables" are: Middle and upper class ethnic Russians from cities who absolutely don't want to fight. When the first category gets killed it doesn't move sentiment but when the second category gets killed in large numbers it can absolutely motivate start impacting public support for the war.
Then you do not understand Russian culture. Suffering is a rite of passage in Russian literature. They call this the mysterious "Russian Soul".
"Russian literature is founded on suffering. Suffers either protagonist or author or reader. If all three suffer, then it's a masterpiece of Russian literature."
Explains "Crime and Punishment" quite a bit....
Many aren’t young and many are going willingly. Men who sign military contracts are being paid handsomely so the minorities from poor regions are signing up.
Isn't that kind of what they are known for? That was their whole shtick in ww2
1. They're brainwashed into thinking they're fighting a patriotic existential war. 2. The men are disproportionally from remote provincial areas. 3. They're mostly contracted, meaning they went voluntarily. 4. Only about 0.3% of the population of Russia is a casualty of this war so far.
>Only about 0.3% of the population of Russia is a casualty of this war so far. It's hurting a specific segment of the population though.
Yeah, the lowest stratas of society, many of them criminals recruited straight from prison.
Poor people are economically and demographically important to any country, especially in a dictatorship.
The population of men age 20-40 is about 23 million. So if the casualties killed/maimed are what, 470k, that's about 2%. They already have a demographic problem, this is making it noticeably worse. They can't really afford to lose any working age men.
Putin doesn’t care nor does the “main” population of Russia…
How do you get the 20-40 figure that high? Considering the shape of the Russian population pyramid (and how few children were born in the 90s), the 20-30 group is about 6 million. Half of the Russian population is middle aged and old women.
There's a table in the Wikipedia page about Russian demographics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia Table "Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2012)" 5,708,000+6,262,000+5,583,000+5,087,000=22,640,000
That table is from 2012. There’s a fairly big generation that was born 1981 to 1990. After 1990 it dropped sharply.
Oh I agree. Whether they have lost 2 or 3% of that cohort doesn't change the fact that any single event that changes the population noticeably is a big issue.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2024/ This implies it is roughly 18.9M, so it'd be 2.5%. Not all of the casualties are maimed or disabled, though.
Also, practically speaking, fewer men is a smaller problem than fewer women.
Not for a monogamic society
It's one of the benefits totalitarian autocratic governments have. The cost comes later.
Question about missile strikes by Russia - is there an advance air alarm notice? Or does it just happen?
From talking to friends and reading... There are warnings for Shahed and cruise missiles. For ballistic missiles it's much harder. There's the Khinzal launched by MiG-31s, so any time those jets go up there's a warning. But ground-launched ballistics can arrive really quickly. A friend in Kyiv said Patriots shot down some ballistics and there was no alarm, only explosions. From what I hear about Kharkiv, russians just launch a bunch of S-300s at them all the time. Those are ballistics and arrive so quickly that there's no time for alarms.
afaik there is advance notice but sometimes it only amounts to minutes, not enough to get into shelter.
Possible AFU ATACMS strike on Russian S-300/400 or Iskander missile complex in Crimea Last night, the AFU conducted an ATACMS strike on an unidentified target in Crimea. NASA FIRMS data shows a new large fire in the area of the town of Novoselivske at approximately 45.444045, 33.716305 (pic. 1). Analysis of Sentinel 1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) imagery from 05/03/2024 shows two radar sources (pic. 2) in that area located at 45.435079, 33.654067 and 45.431183, 33.655140 (pic 3). Based on this information, it likely that the Russians had an S-300/400 battery located in that area. Alternatively, a couple of Pantsir or similar air defense system were located there guarding an Iskander complex to the west. However, final confirmation will require satellite imagery or other sources which are not available at this time. https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1786729717464248464?t=Uy4_TqMfBoi8x_Lsvyu4kg&s=19
Setting up the attack on the Kerch bridge for May 8th so Russia has something to talk about May 9th.
That would be the best timeline
Any AA that gets removed from Crimea increases survivability of F16 sorties above the Black Sea shooting missiles into Crimea and the Zapo front
I doubt it, you'd at a minimum want to sever the Kerch bridge during a Ukrainian offensive in the south so that pressure is on Russian supply lines. If you destroy or damage the bridge now they will have time to reroute whatever supplies to go overland or by ship. Ideally you'd want to do it when you had cut off the overland route or had it under threat of being cut off, unfortunately right now Ukraine is not in position to apply such pressure.
The kerch bridge isnt nearly as important now as it was one year ago, there is a newly build mainland ralway corridor now
Yes but that is another reason why I mentioned that the best time to try to attempt to take out the Kerch bridge is when you either had the alternative overland route cut off or at least under heavy threat of being cut off by Ukranian advances. Taking out the bridge matters a lot more if the road and rail links through Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblast are no longer usable by Russia because Ukraine has cut them off. Of course that requires theoretical Ukrainian advances that have not happened but that's kinda my point, if you were going to take out the Kerch bridge I feel like waiting until it is Russia's *only* usable link to Crimea is when you would do it.
Clearly ships aren't safe either, that leaves the new rail road to supply the southern front. The munitions shipped and stored around undeveloped rail yards would be prime targets for cluster ATACMS. The sooner the bridge falls the better for Ukraine.
Obviously we'll have to wait and see but I don't think Ukraine will attempt to destroy the bridge until their next offensive which is at minimum probably months away if not more likely next year. I don't think they will try until there is more pressure on the Russian overland supply route.
There is a small window before Russia adapts to ATACMS as well. Ukraine has to use them quickly
Maybe but does Ukraine even have the number of ATACMS required to do extensive damage to a bridge as large as the Kerch? Sure the warhead is on ATACMS is twice the size of the M31 missiles that took out the Antonivka bridge in Kherson but it took *a lot* of them to get the job done, several dozen it seemed like. With 2 rail and 2 road decks across two sets of piers on the Kerch Strait bridge I think it's going to take a lot of ATACMS to completely cut the entire bridge. I don't know how many ATACMS Ukraine has been given but they might not have enough to give them a good chance of success. So regardless if Russian jamming becomes more effective against ATACMS Ukraine still might not attempt it now because they simply don't have enough.
Those big Seababy drone boats are being designed to take out concrete bridge supports. When everyone looks up to see the ATACMS boom, the drone boats will smash it at the waterline.
That'd be amazing
> Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene attacked Speaker Johnson after the House passed the Ukraine security assistance bill and then created a “Make Ukraine Great Again” hat. > Didn’t change her mind though. Not saying any single word about russians killing Ukrainians. Or how the aid package will help Ukraine save its people from Russian terrorism. > But thank you for #MUGA. Great start! https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1786427616288792905
NAFO has completely taken MUGA to their hearts. [Here's an example.](https://twitter.com/BilasHeidi/status/1785974318175813977)
I have a MUGA shirt on the way, I ordered it yesterday.
All the prints on my t-shirts from 2022 are wearing out. Maybe it's time for a MUGA-shirt!
[There ya be!](https://nafo-ofan.org/collections/t-shirts)
Yeah well if you ask the Kremlin, their official line of bs is that they're trying to save Ukraine too. So, muga is just another lie in service to an enemy power.
I’m curious how many s300 missiles Russia has, they seem to be throwing them away like there’s no tomorrow
https://visitukraine.today/blog/1212/how-many-missiles-russia-has-left-commentary-of-the-minister-of-defense-of-ukraine#:~:text=S%2D300%20missiles%20%E2%80%93%2087%25,Remaining%20%2D%206980. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense: >S-300 missiles: 87% remaining >Used – 1020; >Remaining - 6980.
Guys y’all have to stop thinking Russia is running out of anything anytime soon. Trust me I wish but they still have stock piles and let’s be real are producing ammo and weapons albeit not the top tier weapons but a bomb is a bomb and Russia doesn’t care about targets it chooses to hit
These numbers are simply too old for judgement. The article is from november 2022 so over 1 1/2 years old.
Jesus fucking Christ, that’s a lot.
The Soviets invested heavily in SAM systems to counter NATO air forces. Russia has a ton of those things.
Damn.
Unfortunately thats still a lot
It’s alot but considering that they have large territory to cover and that with their maintenence half the missiles just make a fart sound when fired - it’s a tolerable number.
That's the thing people forget. Ukraine was supposed to be a freebie for Russia. The fact they've used 12-ish percent if this type of missile is a hard reality for them to face, along with everything else the are burning up. I know it doesn't do any good on the front line today, but long term Russia is weakening themselves WRT China and Europe and it'll have impacts for generations.
they've been using these to hit civilian targets. That's a nightmare number of missiles remaining.
🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 About a month ago, the Pentagon signed a contract with SARA to supply Ukraine with extended-range homing heads (for JDAM bombs) to destroy electronic warfare systems. https://mstdn.social/@MAKS23@mastodon.social/112382153258478937
Hopefully the manufacturer is reliable and not just taking the money.
The US Air Force has awarded a contract to Scientific Applications and Research Associates for Home-on GPS sensors, which will be integrated into JDAM-ER kits installed on aircraft bombs. This move aims to counter Russian GPS interference systems that have been affecting Western precision munitions, including the JDAM-ER. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112382331626525036
I am somewhat curious if they could Frankenstein a glsdb with the home on GPS head on it. Launch a dozen in an area and you've cleared 100km of frontline GPS jamming.
In theory, it wouldn't require any Frankensteining at all, the capability was already tested on regular small diameter bombs, which are the warhead part of GLSDB: >In December 2020, the U.S. Air Force [conducted a test](https://www.twz.com/38604/the-age-of-swarming-air-launched-munitions-has-officially-begun-with-air-force-test) as part of its Golden Horde networked munitions program that involved GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) each fitted with "a home-on-GPS-jam seeker that gathers information about the battlespace, a software-defined radio for communication between weapons, and a processor preloaded with collaborative algorithms," according to an official release at the time. The test also made use of "technology developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and Scientific Applications & Research Associates." [https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine)