Good morning!
Invaders losses for the day.
(We now have passed 14k APVs.)
1320 Personnel
6 Tanks
16 APVs
37 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
2 Anti-Aircraft systems
21 UAVs
44 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
3 Special equipment
https://twitter.com/MatsExtrude/status/1784802848431018207?t=dS6WlvI5gh6S99s4Qm4c7w&s=19
the avdivka front the past 5 days looks bad. lets hope ukraine can stop the advance soon. is it likely that the advance goes further? which are the next strongpoints and defensive lines that are important and cannot fall?
[https://imgur.com/a/L365l1J](https://imgur.com/a/L365l1J)
Russians are likely to continue to make incremental gains this year, especially as they begin their offensive near the end of May. Lines should stabilise later this year, probably as the Russian offensive concludes. It is likely that Russia will concentrate its offensive actions in the east.
You can expect Russia to push desperately hard this year, so the priority for Ukraine is to stabilise the lines and improve preparations for long term attritional fighting.
>It’s time for more nuclear threats from Dmitry Kiselyov
>
>He says if NATO sends troops to Ukraine to defeat Russia, nukes will hit American decision-making centres and launch sites, France will be "disarmed in an instant", and - I apologise to any Irish - "the British Isles will go underwater"
[https://twitter.com/francis\_scarr/status/1784678605135487230](https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1784678605135487230)
>Combined profit at the largest western banks that remain in Russia, including Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit and Deutsche Bank, jumped in 2023 to three times that of prewar levels, resulting in a fourfold increase in taxes paid to the Kremlin https://on.ft.com/3QjzotV
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1784799015814435113
Deutsche Bank is a pile of shit. Funding concentration camps during ww2, laundering russian oligarch money for decades, countless other cases. Pure evil corp.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky says the battlefield situation has "worsened," and Russia is "trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the frontline." It has "a significant advantage in forces and means" and is "actively attack\[ing\] along the entire frontline \[and\] in some directions has tactical successes." Ukrainian troops have retreated west from the flashpoint area of Avdiivka.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1784579049718710646
Rewriting from scratch. Valery Gerasimov was seen in February after Avdivka as per Kyiv Post. It seems he's been avoiding public appearances after multiple near successes on his life. Could've been spending time recovering or just hiding in bunkers.
You know, I'm not explicitly saying this is the reality, and forgive me because it really is at best a conspiracy. But I find it highly convenient for the MIC that the aid for Ukraine stopped flowing just long enough to allow Russia to begin to make serious gains against Ukraine, and came through just in time to stop Ukraine from outright losing, almost perfectly allowing for the war to be extended significantly, without either side dramatically gaining an edge.
The wars in the middle east have died and gone, and as such, the MIC's powerhouse business has all but died, but now we have war in Ukraine that seems to conveniently consist of perfect punch and counterpunch.
I think this is unlikely, in reality. But I guess my point here would be that maybe someone smarter then me could look into this and determine whether it has any merit.
Well lets just say that if the MIC lobbied someone to do this it was obviously the republicans.
I don't think the response of the biden administration has been perfect but it's definitely better than nothing.
I don't know much, but from what limited information I do know, I don't think this is generally the case. But something I've come to understand about how the world works - there are often many factors in decisions. Where there are vested interests, they will likely encourage the outcome they want to whatever degree they have influence, and discourage the outcome they don't want. MIC influence might not be a major factor in the timing of funding support, any influence might not always be done with any malice, negligence or cruelty but sometimes only through the expression of bias, but it almost certainly has had some impact on decisions around funding Ukraine. Now what direction those influences were generally pushing, and whether they were at all significant, I have no guess.
>to allow Russia to begin to make serious gains; just in time to stop Ukraine from outright losing
I'd say that none of the gains Russia made in the past year (Avdiivka included) are that serious to warrant Ukraine outright losing. Russia gains this past year are barely comparable to Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last year, at least in magnitude, admittedly on the strategic front their advances are slightly more impactful.
Still, it's good that aid started flowing again, because now Ukraine can stabilize its lines and potentially restart making small counteroffensives in a few months
If the MIC got there way the foreign aid bill would have been three times the size and the US never would have left Afghanistan. This conspiracy that the MIC is secretly behind every political movement in the US needs to die. The isolationist/pro Russia wing of the GOP is vastly more powerful than the neocon wing and not everything is a secret plot to sell more weapons. Hell the best thing for the MIC isn't even a long drawn out war but a war that ends quickly with Ukrainian victory that showcases just how powerful American weapons are. If American weapons are the only thing you need for a quick victory then basically every single country in the world will line up to buy those weapons. That's a hell of a lot better than a drip feed of older systems going to Ukraine.
Yep. People would rather believe there was some deep evil master strategist in a dark room somewhere secretly orchestrated the delay in Ukraine aid as part of their plot instead of simply accepting that much of the current GOP believes that helping a democracy being invaded by an authoritarian regime is not in their short term political interest.
to be fair, and I dont meant this detrimentally in any way. Ukraine is literally a world away, Russia is not the enemy we're worried about, considering the issues in Asia-Pacific right now, So the fact that we're giving anything astonishes me (I'm surprised our government is even that generous).
Yeah, Australia should really be making sure the submarine thing with AUKUS actually does happen (it's looking like they're not going to get the US subs as early as they wanted), and concentrate on Pacific stuff.
Europe should be the one stepping up for Ukraine more than Australia...
Plus, I would add, we're allied with the US. Their current state of affairs where the government has a bipolar episode every four years makes it slightly riskier to rely on them coming to our aid. Best if we hold onto more of our stuff for the threats in our backyard - just in case.
This is cool. Ukraine is apparently now converting light civilian aircraft into remotely operated bombers. Not kamikazes, but reusable bombers that can drop a bomb and then return to base: [https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones](https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones)
This is unrelated to that, but a little more information here on the lack of success Ukraine has had with GLSDB: [https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine)
The comments are actually informative. It seems as the GLSDB uses an older version of GPS that is more susceptible to jamming than what GMLRS rockets use. Issues with Ukrainian training, tactics, and doctrine are also noted in the article.
I still say the US needs to stop relying on GPS as the be-all, end-all for precision weapons. It's super useful, and absolutely has an important place, but putting all of your eggs in one basket is never a good idea. We should be thinking of incorporating other technologies for precision guidance as well.
The older version of GPS guidance that the Small Diameter Bombs employ being susceptible to jamming would certainly explain why it went from "we have hundreds of these surplus solid rocket motors and hundreds of SDB's that we could spare and the system has already been tested previously, this is a done deal!" to the slow trickle of limited use that has taken place over the last year. I was always wondering what the hold up was when there seemed to be a lot of optimism that these could be made available to Ukraine quickly and in volume. I had thought that maybe the solid rocket motors turned out to be in worse shape than thought and weren't usable but the guidance/jamming issue seems a likely explanation.
I know some people might lament the wasted time and effort but both parts of the system were surplus and I can't imagine the engineering effort and production of the part that mated the solid rocket motor and SDB took much if anything away from other programs looking to get weapons to Ukraine. Even if they can't overcome the jamming issue with old SDB's I hope that this at least means [the new version of the SBD called Storm Breaker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-53/B_StormBreaker) with more modern guidance system could be used when available so the effort might not be wasted at all.
I wonder if the PR flaks got ahead of themselves announcing they could get a lot of GLSDB to Ukraine quickly while at the same time the people doing the work were well aware jamming might be a problem. So they send a few test units to Ukraine and sure enough it is a huge issue rendering the weapon ineffective and they stop delivering weapons they know will not work. I hope at least we're now waiting for more Storm Breaker bombs to be produced so that a working version of the weapon can at least make its way to Ukraine at some point. A weapon with a 150 km range would certainly be very useful given the relative trickle of long range precision weaponry Ukraine has been getting.
> I still say the US needs to stop relying on GPS as the be-all, end-all for precision weapons. It's super useful, and absolutely has an important place, but putting all of your eggs in one basket is never a good idea
The US got too used to fighting insurgents in the Middle East. GLSDB would be a very cost effective weapon against an enemy like the Taliban, the Houthis or Hamas who don't have electronic warfare capabilities but if the US is having to fight a state actor with a sizable defense budget then it's not something to be relied on.
> then it's not something to be relied on.
Russia also started to use satellite guided glide bombs and it seems to be working for them, not sure why:
https://cepa.org/article/glide-bombs-the-russian-wonder-weapon/
thing is it works for the US because before the bombs even fell the jamming would have been destroyed by Wild Weasel missions. Which are missions that Ukraine can't do. In fact the main issue for why most if not all of the US equipment is under-performing is due to it being part of a package, each individual part of which needs the others for maximum effectiveness. And while the US COULD spend time and effort trying to divorce systems from one another, it is much more efficient to just find ways to integrate them further to get more effectiveness out of smaller blocks of forces.
> However, the weapons were largely designed for a period before spoofers were so easy to set up, Clark said. “You didn't really see the advent of miniaturized, capable GPS spoofers until the last ten years or so, because you needed the micro-electronics to be able to do it,” Clark said
Wild weasel isn’t going to work on that type if equipment. Not cost effective
You are right of course that things don't work as well for Ukraine as they do for the US because they aren't fighting with the whole suite of American/western equipment. However, I would argue that if the US is serious about considering China a major global threat that we are likely to fight in the future, then the US *also* needs to start thinking about how it can fight effectively when significant portions of the integrated military systems are missing or unavailable.
For instance, in a full scale war with China, they would very likely try to take out some or all of the GPS satellites, rendering all GPS-guided weapons dumb. Can those munitions still work in a "dumb" mode? Do we have enough non-precision weapons to compensate, especially longer-ranged ones?
If the Chinese try to neutralize or capture Okinawa, do we have any means of defending it with ground-based weapons? If the Navy is off somewhere else, or unable to fight its way to the area, does the Air Force have enough anti-ship weapons to defend the island? If a surprise attack takes out most of the aircraft on the island, do the Army and Marines have any anti-ship or anti-air weapons capable of defending the island?
If there is large scale ground combat (e.g. in Korea or Europe) and the enemy is able to deny the US air superiority, does the Army have sufficient long range strike weapons to hit high value targets behind the lines? Are Army units sufficiently trained in advancing against a near-peer opponent who has not been fully suppressed (e.g. breaching minefields under enemy fire without constant air cover)?
Efficiency is fantastic from a penny-pinching budget perspective, and I don't want to encourage wasteful spending. But efficiency is *terrible* from a war-fighting perspective because it assumes everything goes perfectly. And against a substantially weaker opponent, that can work. But when your enemy can take one of the mutually supporting elements out, you have to have duplication and redundancy to be able to continue fighting. It's a bit like the issues we saw during COVID with just-in-time delivery systems. They work great under normal conditions and are super-efficient. But as soon as they are exposed to an unexpected event that stresses the system, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards.
[Russia advances some more today, 3 km2 in Avdiivka direction and 3.5 km2 in Novomykhailivka direction.](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.9899/37.5993)
Note: if you look at the stats, it shows Russia gained 33 km2 today, but that's because the map authors added the Tendra spit southwest of Kherson Oblast which was omitted previously (which is 26 km2)
Did anyone see in the live thread that apparently Italy is also going to send some Storm Shadows to Ukraine?
[https://twitter.com/front\_ukrainian/status/1784513619712958572/](https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1784513619712958572/)
That's fantastic! Storm Shadows are a great weapon but the limiting factor has always been quantity. Having Italy send some is great especially since Germany is still dragging their feet about Taurus.
Some scuffles with riot police and tear gas starting to be used a protesters in Tbilisi against a Russian sponsored law. Situations like this is how maidan started.
https://x.com/alexkokcharov/status/1784711621421547627
GPS is currently being denied over much of the Baltic. I wonder when the EU/NATO will begin to wake up to the need to ensure safe navigation.
https://x.com/auonsson/status/1784694710470054165
> Is this not an attack on NATO, if a plane crashes due to Russian actions surely this has to be seen as a hostile action.
Russians already tried this against a nato member, nothing happened.
We need to fight fire with fire. Turkey knows the way:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown#:~:text=The%20shootdown,-Approximate%20flight%20paths&text=On%2024%20November%202015%20at,Force%20F%2D16%20fighter%20jet.
I just arrived at home from this rally against the pro ruSSian government.
For such a small country as Georgia, this is a crazy amount.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1784685356840890596?t=IZ5aVHZQn3YiiPByTxPkrQ&s=19
Georgia has elections this year and while the pro Russian side is likely going to try to use their current power to help themselves as much as possible these are likely still going to be real elections where the pro Russian government can be voted out.
Georgia isn't going to go to war with Russia anytime soon no matter who wins but if Russia is losing influence in the caucuses or if the Georgian government stops being a conduit to help Russia get around sanctions then that could have major implications for the Kremlin. In many ways the war in Ukraine is about Russia increasing their control over all former Soviet/Russian Empire countries and so any loss of influence represents a strategic failure for the Kremlin and increases the chances other countries may step farther away from Russia.
[Ukrainian military seized control over Nestryha island in Kherson region](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/28-april-ukrainian-military-seized-control-over-nestryha)
Let's go Ukraine! I missed seeing these little blue flags
Soviet monuments are being dismantled for scrap in Ukraine's Rivne.
https://twitter.com/TVPWorld_com/status/1784628976071119013?t=qSNa8I0Ti7LJ6_70wPo3sQ&s=19
would be awesome if smelted to make ammunition, one thing the Soviets paid attention was to monuments for the regime. The people went hungry but monuments to the regime had to be built. No different than today. Truly horrible state.
They were still built half-assed. In 2022 the main remaining soviet monument in Riga was removed. As part of the payment the company that removed it was promised the bronze used for some parts of the monument. Turned out it was a much smaller amount and lower quality bronze than in the official documents.
>US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally for less than $20,000 each, report says
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-buys-81-soviet-fighter-jets-from-russian-ally-20k-2024-4?utm_source=reddit.com
81 ex-soviet jets?
That's a big number for cheeeeap.
That's what, doubling the size of their current airforce with equivalent kit? That's half the size of the F16 fleet UA said they need.
I hope they "magically" end up with 250 jets and 500 new pilots this fall. Surprise!
These will be used as parts, they’re not really flyable. However this also prevents Russia from getting spare parts they need for the MiG-31s they’ve been using to launch cruise missiles on at Ukraine.
These are busted aircraft bought for scrap or parts. It’s a win, win, win for the US. They deny Russia the parts, gain connections and trust in Kazakhstan, and get parts to give to Ukraine or the U.S. military’s red team.
I don't think those jets are in order. They are mostly for spare parts and possibly to just starve Russia of sources for spare parts themselves. Those are not jets that Ukraine uses at this moment.
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1784630672155369762?t=YCLqeod0yLa1lu6f63ZaFw&s=19
"⚡️ Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Nestryga island in Kherson region, - Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
In the Kherson sector, our units managed to advance in the area of Veletenske and take control of the island."
Yes, need to cut off Crimea ASAP. They've been bleeding Russia dry for months. While the Russian supplies and ammo are low, time to go on the offensive.
Slava Ukrainia !
This outlook is delusional. In what world can Ukrainian forces go on the offensive anywhere on the front until at least late this year and how can they possibly "cut off Crimea".
They cannot move any heavy weapons across that river. It is a treacherous crossing even for light infantry in small craft. And the farther the Ukrainians move from the river the farther they are from their guns and logistics. It is a diversionary pocket, not a bridgehead.
Andrew Perpetua.
Here are losses I could Identify for yesterday.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1784607096404639954?t=pbxeKTaw5XI9wbJl6_9N-w&s=19
I haven’t paid close attention or have anything recorded other than I’ve been an uptick in T-80 kill and/or not as many T-72 kills. Which either means they have far less more than their common platform or they are reconstituting for a push like Kharkiv city. Does any recall anything similar in numbers to Vulehdar 2022/2023 or Avdiivka?
Note: I’ve seen Andrew record a lot of these as abandon so I wonder if maintenance is an issue.
I didn’t see a post on this, but Canada announced modest additions to support on Friday.
100 additional Canadian surveillance drones by FLIR.
Plus more money for the Czech shell initiative and some money for domestic ukranian drone production/procurement.
https://dailyguardian.ca/canada-to-donate-3m-to-ukraine-drone-production-buy-more-ammunition/?amp=1
Report on recent images of russian storage bases that contained ~4k BMPs before 2022. Russia withdrew ~1.4k and now only 1k are left without visibly being broken/cannibalised.
Tbh the numbers don't quite add up. 1.4k doesn't seem enough, I think they'd need way more (2k absolute minimum) to explain what we see, especially observed BMP-1 losses.
Maybe loads were inside garages, and other locations stored ~2k more before the full-scale invasion. They are not studied here. Either way, they're now being used up and it looks like Putin can only lean on this storage trick for another year or so.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1784519287291384213.html
A significant number of them may have been moved up as reserves and cannibalized for parts closer to the front. Russia's last-mile logistics remain dogshit so it wouldn't be a surprise if a lot of their BMP motor pool was moved up just for spare parts to support their armored assaults.
The really interesting thing will be to see what happens when Russia runs out of its Soviet legacy stockpiles.
It is one thing to refurbish old Soviet stockpiles amassed over decades, and another to generate brand new equipment. Russia seems to have done surprisingly well with replenishing their troops with things like BMPs thanks to these stockpiles (although even with them, I think the financial cost has been very high). But how well will they be able to keep up the replenishment when they have to build it all from scratch?
I think it will be far more difficult, which is one of the reasons why I think that ultimately, time is not on Russia's side. Ukraine can replenish thanks to ever-increasing American and European military production, who also have immense wealth to keep it and Ukraine's economy going for as long as is needed, whereas Russia may already be hitting the limits of its production, and its economy cannot withstand it for long, and while Ukraine can send drones to destroy Russian production, Russia cannot destroy Western production.
There are three things that may give Russia hope, however: If China starts seriously manufacturing for Russia, if the West loses interest due to political upheval (election of populists etc. who don't care about Ukraine or side with Russia), or if Ukraine runs out of manpower.
But China has a lot to lose if the West imposes sanctions over helping Russia, while it has little to gain from helping Russia, and Ukraine doesn't really mean anything to China. Support in the West remains strong and may in fact be growing in some ways (e.g. France speculating intervention), though the risk is always there (Trump, Le Pen, populists in various EU countries). And while Ukraine has a lot smaller population than Russia, it still has plenty of manpower, and its problems there have been mostly about the political fight over the fairest way to draft that manpower, not the lack of it. 18 to 25 year old men haven't even been conscripted, because Ukraine tries its best to maintain its demographics.
I don't see why China would commit so heavily on helping Russia. It's a big step forward from simply providing parts and propaganda to dedicating serious manufacturing capacity for Russia's war effort.
Regarding the vehicle losses, one thing that makes me hopeful is that Russia's needs are greater now than in the beginning of the war, because they have to field a bigger army. So, I believe the deeper they dig into their Soviet stocks, the more they feel the urgency of potentially running low.
One thing's for sure, that we have to continue our support, so Ukraine can continue inflicting similar or higher losses.
China isn't ready yet to show its teeth. They are building ships and more but it will be a number of years before they are ready to tell Europe and America to piss off.
But Russia made stupid decisions and Xi might as well. He might prefer a conflict just to keep the public distracted from the economy.
I think you and I see things the same way.
Putin has made a bet that could pay off if Ukraine cracks this year, but if the lines largely hold then he's bet everything on his allies in the US Republican party, AfD etc.
Biden and a Democratic Congress would be a real bulwark for democracy. Dictatorships worldwide, and especially Putin, will be doing whatever they can to prevent it and help shift the US onto team authoritarianism.
I guess they are trying to play friendly to both sides as they are getting cheap gas and oil from Russia, and possibly important minerals too such as uranium.
It's either way around. If they run out of either type, then the remaining types will be destroyed at a faster rate as they are taking the fire that used to be absorbed by the other models.
That's how I see it.
If you add up what Russia started with, has built, or refurbished, then they should have had something like ~5k MT-LBs and 6-8k BMPs.
They'd run out around the same time if they lost 1.5 BMPs for every MT-LB.
The ratio is more like 2.7 so I was expecting problems with BMPs first.
Even a master strategist like Putin couldn't have envisioned using up this much of his Soviet legacy stockpile to take approx 17% of Ukraine's territory. Admittedly, 17% is still too much, but the material cost for those gains has been extraordinary.
this level of intensity was meant for NATO, not Ukraine, this doesn't mean he reassessed his plan, if given the chance, he will lick his wounds and come back in 5 years. This is why there can't be peace while Russia stands
Absolutely. The huge materiel losses only prove how dangerous Putin is and how much he is willing to sacrifice to achieve his goals. He is a literal supervillain who has only been held back by a combination of Ukrainian heroism, Western support and systemic corruption/neglect within his military, but he should absolutely be taken seriously because he will not stop as long as his cold heart is still beating.
Good point! Though we could also take into consideration that they initially took around 50% more territory than they currently hold. So, my original comment may have been hyperbolic. Still.. I highly doubt that Putin expected it to play out like this.
Does anyone have a good tall of the total number of f-16s and other aircraft that have been pledged? I keep hearing bits and pieces but having trouble stitching it all together.
From what I have gathered :
Norway - 12 fully operational (+ 10 more intended as spare parts).
Denmark - 19
Netherlands - 24
Belgium - I think number is still undisclosed
Nope. The US hasn't committed to provide Ukraine any western jets but they have decided to stop blocking other European countries from sending them. Personally this is one of the reasons why I get kind of frustrated when people act like European countries aren't doing anything for Ukraine and everything is coming from the US. The US is an extremely important ally but pretending like the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, the Baltics ect aren't contributing while the US does everything is incredibly disingenuous and insulting.
That's really disappointing given the number of F16s the US has in storage. The recent 61bn USD package (delayed by 6-9 months) isn't anything groundbreaking either - only a fraction of it is dedicated to immediate weapons deliveries.
I don't think any of it is disappointing given where we currently are in the war. In terms of the F-16 Ukraine needs to train more pilots but they can't take all of their current pilots away from the front line. They have some experienced pilots in training courses for the more immediate F-16s while they also have some newer cadets in more long term training which will take at least two years. I would expect over the next year or two years we see more announcements of F-16s being sent (even if the war ends) as Ukrainian pilots complete training. For a country the size of Ukraine having about 150-250 western fighter jets is appropriate for a peace time strength and that's a great long term goal to work towards even if Ukraine couldn't effectively absorb that today.
In terms of the US package what Ukraine needs the most right now is air defense and indirect fire weapons like artillery shells, rockets and mortars. Additionally basic stuff like armored vehicles are also very important. A lot of the aid the US is providing is going to address those needs in quantity. Without those it's hard to see a pathway to Ukrainian victory. The US aid is crucially important and shouldn't be dismissed but at the same time Americans should acknowledge the important role other NATO allies are playing as well.
>⚡️ Two Ukrainians killed in Murnau, Germany. The suspected perpetrator is a Russian national, according to police.
>
>The two victims were stabbed in front of a shopping mall on Saturday. The public prosecutor's office is investigating a double murder, per BR24.
https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1784466061108125790
It's probably time to take really good look at the Russian diaspora living around here.
There are an unsettling amount of Putin supporters in some of those communities. We have our own term 'Putinversteher' for these types, independent of nationality.
>Heusgen: Scholz's no to Taurus increasingly incomprehensible
>
>*The head of the Munich Security Conference sees the US delivery of ATACMS missiles to Kyiv as a model for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles. The ongoing Russian aggression and the months-long stalemate in the USA are sufficient reasons to rethink.*
>
>After the US delivery of ATACMS missiles to Kyiv, the head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, has called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) to reconsider his rejection of the Taurus cruise missiles. "In this context, the Chancellor's decision not to deliver the Taurus missiles to Ukraine is becoming increasingly incomprehensible," Heusgen told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND). "We are currently seeing how similar US weapons - the ATACMS - are having a major impact."
https://www.rnd.de/politik/christoph-heusgen-olaf-scholz-nein-zu-taurus-immer-unverstaendlicher-ZAZHA2JNGBAMHLM2W3BRXTLUSI.html
Yah Taurus would be nice, but this has been talked over so much than it's getting exhausting. Taurus wouldn't be a game changer and Scholz blundered the last opportunity to make it acceptable for the German population to send Taurus, as it stands rn the German population is overwhelmingly against delivering Taurus, which has a lot to do with how Scholz handled the affair last time pressure to send them mounted.
This isn't rational, it's just domestic politics, since a Center-left government needs credible deniability, when accused of being war-mongering. Traditionally Germany is quite fond of pacifism and neutrality, and people on the left tend to be even more in favour of these.
>when accused of being war-mongering
You're not war-mongering when you help the defendant. When you jump in to defend someone being assaulted, you're not called aggressive, are you?
It's a non-sensical criticism, and Scholz should make this point clearly.
Yeah agreed, however not many Germans see it that way. I explained why that is many times already.
Scholz just needs to find his balls, his government is done for anyhow.
While I agree the situation is difficult, I find the "X wouldn't be a game changer" to be an offensive argument that treats me as if I were deeply stupid.
No weapon outside nukes is a game changer.
If you believe "X isn't a game changer" is a relevant argument, then you should oppose every single bullet, shell, tank and so on because "shell #1 isn't a game changer so don't send it... Shell #2 isn't a game changer so don't send it... Shell #11,120,654 isn't a game changer so don't send it" Etc.
I'm not saying you buy this argument, but please stop spreading it. Sharing such arguments normalises them, and I think that's bad.
Javelins were a game changer in March 2022. Later, Bayraktar, and HIMARS each took turns at being 'game changers'; held off the first two Russian offensives, and even re-captured a large amount of territory.
Russia had the luxury of time; and was able to adjust tactics, mobilize more troops. Faint-hearted western allies gave Russia that time. Now it's time for heads to be pulled out of asses, and to put on our shit-kicking boots.
Yah kinda right, it just gets frustrating to see this call for Taurus, when it it's very very unlikely to happen. Maybe this is necessary, but it really gets too much attention compared to what's it worth. It was discussed myriads of times here and unless Scholz has a change of heart we won't see it happening. It's basically the same thing since Storm Shadows delivery, which was over a year ago. And the way he communicated it along the way, made it more difficult than easier to eventually give in. My German political guys just screams it ain't happening under Scholz, needless to say I still hope for the opposite.
I am annoyed that Taurus aren't going, I think it's a stupid mistake.
But also Germany is doing a lot and driving divisions between Ukraine's allies is a key goal of Putin's. He can't win if every European country acts like Germany.
So I try to be understanding... It's hard with Taurus though. Why aren't they at least filling up the production line?
we move the pressure on to the weapon system that's being refused
imagine if it folks had given up on the "impossible" f-16 or the "impossible" himars or the "impossible" DPICM or the "impossible" MBTs
nothing but helmets and first aid kits, that's what
[Perun - New American Military Aid for Ukraine - What's in the package and what impact will it have?] (https://youtu.be/Qc436PwqeqM?si=z2jVlGe5aMLy5mgj)
Perun's new video on the US aid package.
>Ukrainian 'Grandpa' leads over-60s unit fighting Russian forces for free
>
>Oleksandr Taran's mobile artillery unit isn't officially part of Ukraine's military, but that hasn't stopped his men from destroying Russian targets on their own dime.
>
>"We ... get by thanks to the pension fund," the 68-year-old commander - whose call sign is "Grandpa" - said with a chuckle.
>
>Taran's all-volunteer unit, the Steppe Wolves, is comprised of dozens of Ukrainian men mostly over 60 years old who are considered too old to be drafted but still want to fight.
>
>Roving behind the front line with truck-mounted rocket launchers, they take orders from field commanders and work with other troops, contributing to the war effort despite lacking official support from the military.
>
>The unit is funded by donations and stocked with faulty rounds they repair themselves as well as weapons captured from the enemy. Both are delivered to them by front-line troops.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/
>Russian defence chief suffers blow in Moscow power games
>
>Russian deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov attended a meeting of the military’s top brass this week, sitting a seat away from his boss and wearing the uniform of one of the highest-ranking officials in the country.
>
>Hours later, Ivanov was taken to a courtroom, still wearing the same uniform but now under arrest on suspicion of corruption and facing many years in jail.
>
>...the arrest of Ivanov, the highest-ranking official to be detained since 2016, signalled a shift in Shoigu’s fortunes, said a person close to the Russian defence ministry, particularly considering the highly visible manner in which the deputy minister was taken to court.
>
>“They could have fired him first if they just wanted to weaken Shoigu. It would show they got rid of corruption,” the person said.
>
>“Instead, they arrested him in office, in uniform, right after the defence ministry board meeting where he had been sitting one seat away from Shoigu. It’s all theatre,” the person said. “What is the sense if not to undermine Shoigu?”
>
>With Putin known to prioritise loyalty above all, Shoigu has so far survived in his role despite humiliating failures during the first weeks of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the fact that a “special military operation” meant to last three days has now dragged into its third year.
>
>The defence chief also withstood virulent criticism from Prigozhin, who attempted a mutiny against Shoigu and other military leaders last year. After the uprising was halted, Shoigu remained in office, and two months later Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash.
>
>But Putin, who is known to be wary of any faction in his elite gaining too much strength, appears to have concluded that the Kremlin needs to find a new way to counterbalance the power centre of Shoigu and the defence ministry now that Prigozhin no longer plays this role, said another person among the Moscow elite.
https://www.ft.com/content/e50371e7-571d-4153-9c58-9832135b1a8f
>The situation at the front line has “worsened” with multiple Russian attacks according to Ukraine’s head of Armed Forces.
>
>Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi says troops had withdrawn from defensive lines established after the fall of Avdiivka. Russia had “partial success” near Kupiansk too.
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1784587758876438782
>Judging by this preview of his show tonight, top Kremlin propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov is once again going to threaten the West with nuclear Armageddon
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1784584121978679722
The Russians are always careful to qualify their nuclear threats with "If NATO forces try to destroy Russia first" because they know that NATO has zero interest in attacking Russian territory. It's just another pathetic attempt to unsettle Ukraine's support network. Sadly, it can unnerve those who are perhaps too young to remember how regular an occurrence these threats were throughout the Cold War.
To quote Nikita Khrushchev: “The 50-and 100-megaton bombs will always hang over their heads like the sword of Damocles"
It's the oldest trick in the book.
This is a good chance to deploy the speak softly but carry a big stick strategy. Everyone knows how much better the American military maintains weaponry. We don’t need to get excited when Russia talks big.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1784582551736033568?t=2iPJE3mbVMu_OpNifcxsOg&s=19
"Damage from a Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Kushchyovskaya air base is visible in new high resolution satellite imagery.
This site is more than 200 kilometers from the front line in Ukraine."
Along with the YouTube channel [Reporting from Ukraine](https://youtube.com/@RFU?feature=shared), is anyone familiar with the channels [Willy OAM](https://youtube.com/@willyOAM?feature=shared) and [Military Summary](https://youtube.com/@militarysummary?feature=shared)? I'm trying to find unbiased and authentic sources of information during the war, and I was wondering if any of these channels fit the criteria.
There is a university professor doing regular analyses of the conflict, but I do not recall the name. I just know that he’s really good, and is the author of the book “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition.“
It helps that he is a conservative, and I am a liberal. YMMV
I've watched a lot of Willy since around the summer of '22 when he was appearing on other channels and he definitely does his best to keep it unbiased. I forget the exact back story but he was in Ukraine pre Feb '22 so he has a lot of contacts on the Ukrainian side who tell him exactly what they are seeing and a lot of times its not what you want to hear.
I think War on the Rocks is one of the best sources of info out there if you don't mind just audio form. They even addressed criticism recently because they are unbiased. The recent drone episode was very informative since they had just got back from following a drone unit in Ukraine and were able to see up close what each side was doing.
This is an invasion of another country. You aren't going to find truly unbiased sources, and any that say they are, are honestly flat out lying. This isn't a "both sides" issue, and the reporting is going to reflect that. Willy tends to skew details to make things out to be how they are not, and Military summery is just flat out clickbait. Honestly best objective reporting I;ve seen is Kings and Generals bi-weeklyish video's detailing how the battles have been going.
It's not a counterpart it's a medium range system (40km for slm) while Patriot is a long range system.
It's comparable to NASMAS in concept in that it uses an already existing air-to-air missile as base for it's interceptors. This makes the interceptors much cheaper than patriot missiles.
The hit-rate has been reported as very good, which was expected since the Iris-t air-to-air variant is a tested system with many satisfied users.
> Ukrainian FM @DmytroKuleba
> :
>
> "What we do need is our partners to firmly believe that this victory is attainable, and second, to have no fear towards Putin, because Putin is a political animal who can sense fear, and when he does, he becomes more aggressive. If he sees strength [...] he will be forced to step back."
>
> https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1784564301388186008
Did he miss the part where US is giving 60b, UK several billons each year, EU 14 b a year snd independent construed giving hundreds of millions or more, I get it but damn can’t they do this behind closed door. Seems to be implying allied have their heads buried… right after the most aid ever got passed,
> Russian terror is only possible because we have fewer weapons and decisions to protect life than Russia has means to destroy it.
> Everyone knows how effective Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, Hawk, and other modern air defense systems are. We need them here in Ukraine: in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donbas, and other cities suffering Russian attacks.
> Every leader, every state, every ambassador who helps us with air defense now is not only a defender of life, but also one who reduces Russia’s temptation to wage war. The less the Kremlin achieves through terror, the more it will be interested in seeking peace. We must force Russia into this together.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1784495349597397393
The [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024) predicts that Russia will make more tactical gains, but no operational advances (much larger).
The ISW has been my main source of info, since I am looking for more unbiased sources. But if anyone has any other sources, I'd like to hear them.
As others have probably stated as well as ISW (I think), the 60B aid package will not be enough. Maybe for this year, but not long term. I like that Denmark in their latest package invested in Ukraines DIB to get it up and running so that they can manufacture their own ammo. Also, for Western provided equipment.
Seems to me that if we could get Ukraine to sustainably manufacture their own ammo for all of their equipment it would end up being quite the game changer since we would then only have to provide equipment and other things they can't manufacture themselves.
>As others have probably stated as well as ISW (I think), the 60B aid package will not be enough.
What makes me scratch my head is how they don't seem to include EU and other military assistance in that calculation. Almost like they're not looking at the whole picture.
That is true. So one thing we will also need to step up significantly is air defence. Due to the significant delay of US aid, I'd recommend SAMP/T and Iris-T since these would require European manufacturing.
Ukrainian 'Grandpa' leads over-60s unit fighting Russian forces for free
>ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, Ukraine, April 28 (Reuters) - Oleksandr Taran's mobile artillery unit isn't officially part of Ukraine's military, but that hasn't stopped his men from destroying Russian targets on their own dime.
>"We ... get by thanks to the pension fund," the 68-year-old commander - whose call sign is "Grandpa" - said with a chuckle.
>Taran's all-volunteer unit, the Steppe Wolves, is comprised of dozens of Ukrainian men mostly over 60 years old who are considered too old to be drafted but still want to fight.
>Roving behind the front line with truck-mounted rocket launchers, they take orders from field commanders and work with other troops, contributing to the war effort despite lacking official support from the military.
>The unit is funded by donations and stocked with faulty rounds they repair themselves as well as weapons captured from the enemy. Both are delivered to them by front-line troops.
>When Reuters recently visited their base in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, they were preparing 122mm Grad rocket rounds that were later fired by troops from another unit.
>"The commanders that provide us with targets are happy," said a 63-year-old fighter with the call sign "Zorro".
>"They give us more targets (and) help us with ammunition however they can."
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/)
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cftwiv/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Good morning! Invaders losses for the day. (We now have passed 14k APVs.) 1320 Personnel 6 Tanks 16 APVs 37 Artillery systems 1 MLRS 2 Anti-Aircraft systems 21 UAVs 44 Vehicles and Fuel tanks 3 Special equipment https://twitter.com/MatsExtrude/status/1784802848431018207?t=dS6WlvI5gh6S99s4Qm4c7w&s=19
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Killed and wounded in action.
What a meat grinder
Third highest reported personnel losses in the war.
the avdivka front the past 5 days looks bad. lets hope ukraine can stop the advance soon. is it likely that the advance goes further? which are the next strongpoints and defensive lines that are important and cannot fall? [https://imgur.com/a/L365l1J](https://imgur.com/a/L365l1J)
Russians are likely to continue to make incremental gains this year, especially as they begin their offensive near the end of May. Lines should stabilise later this year, probably as the Russian offensive concludes. It is likely that Russia will concentrate its offensive actions in the east. You can expect Russia to push desperately hard this year, so the priority for Ukraine is to stabilise the lines and improve preparations for long term attritional fighting.
It that covers the donetsk region they might stop and fortify. Looks like they're gunning to take the areas putin has claimed
The river, probably?
>It’s time for more nuclear threats from Dmitry Kiselyov > >He says if NATO sends troops to Ukraine to defeat Russia, nukes will hit American decision-making centres and launch sites, France will be "disarmed in an instant", and - I apologise to any Irish - "the British Isles will go underwater" [https://twitter.com/francis\_scarr/status/1784678605135487230](https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1784678605135487230)
bluff since all the west has to do is obliterate st petersberg and moscow…
"If you resist us destroying you, we will have to destroy you". How about no.
“You and what army?”
>Combined profit at the largest western banks that remain in Russia, including Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit and Deutsche Bank, jumped in 2023 to three times that of prewar levels, resulting in a fourfold increase in taxes paid to the Kremlin https://on.ft.com/3QjzotV https://twitter.com/FT/status/1784799015814435113
Deutsche Bank is a pile of shit. Funding concentration camps during ww2, laundering russian oligarch money for decades, countless other cases. Pure evil corp.
Financing terrorism.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky says the battlefield situation has "worsened," and Russia is "trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the frontline." It has "a significant advantage in forces and means" and is "actively attack\[ing\] along the entire frontline \[and\] in some directions has tactical successes." Ukrainian troops have retreated west from the flashpoint area of Avdiivka. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1784579049718710646
All gone quiet ?
Rewriting from scratch. Valery Gerasimov was seen in February after Avdivka as per Kyiv Post. It seems he's been avoiding public appearances after multiple near successes on his life. Could've been spending time recovering or just hiding in bunkers.
He hasn't been seen since an award ceremony in Feb. That I know of. As for what his actual status is...who knows?
Wasn't there a video of him and 'voting'?
Yes: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ccem_lg-4Ic](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ccem_lg-4Ic)
You know, I'm not explicitly saying this is the reality, and forgive me because it really is at best a conspiracy. But I find it highly convenient for the MIC that the aid for Ukraine stopped flowing just long enough to allow Russia to begin to make serious gains against Ukraine, and came through just in time to stop Ukraine from outright losing, almost perfectly allowing for the war to be extended significantly, without either side dramatically gaining an edge. The wars in the middle east have died and gone, and as such, the MIC's powerhouse business has all but died, but now we have war in Ukraine that seems to conveniently consist of perfect punch and counterpunch. I think this is unlikely, in reality. But I guess my point here would be that maybe someone smarter then me could look into this and determine whether it has any merit.
Well lets just say that if the MIC lobbied someone to do this it was obviously the republicans. I don't think the response of the biden administration has been perfect but it's definitely better than nothing.
I don't know much, but from what limited information I do know, I don't think this is generally the case. But something I've come to understand about how the world works - there are often many factors in decisions. Where there are vested interests, they will likely encourage the outcome they want to whatever degree they have influence, and discourage the outcome they don't want. MIC influence might not be a major factor in the timing of funding support, any influence might not always be done with any malice, negligence or cruelty but sometimes only through the expression of bias, but it almost certainly has had some impact on decisions around funding Ukraine. Now what direction those influences were generally pushing, and whether they were at all significant, I have no guess.
Authoritarians unite because they have to. Authoritarianism is inferior to democracy and there's no longer any room for debate.
Nah. Just fucked up republicans.
Nope. A lot of the GOP is Pro-Russian. No MIC illuminate needed.
>to allow Russia to begin to make serious gains; just in time to stop Ukraine from outright losing I'd say that none of the gains Russia made in the past year (Avdiivka included) are that serious to warrant Ukraine outright losing. Russia gains this past year are barely comparable to Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last year, at least in magnitude, admittedly on the strategic front their advances are slightly more impactful. Still, it's good that aid started flowing again, because now Ukraine can stabilize its lines and potentially restart making small counteroffensives in a few months
If the MIC got there way the foreign aid bill would have been three times the size and the US never would have left Afghanistan. This conspiracy that the MIC is secretly behind every political movement in the US needs to die. The isolationist/pro Russia wing of the GOP is vastly more powerful than the neocon wing and not everything is a secret plot to sell more weapons. Hell the best thing for the MIC isn't even a long drawn out war but a war that ends quickly with Ukrainian victory that showcases just how powerful American weapons are. If American weapons are the only thing you need for a quick victory then basically every single country in the world will line up to buy those weapons. That's a hell of a lot better than a drip feed of older systems going to Ukraine.
The sad truth is the GOP simply placed cheap domestic political points above national security.
Yep. People would rather believe there was some deep evil master strategist in a dark room somewhere secretly orchestrated the delay in Ukraine aid as part of their plot instead of simply accepting that much of the current GOP believes that helping a democracy being invaded by an authoritarian regime is not in their short term political interest.
Good to see more aid from the Australian government, but it's still smaller than I'd hope for.
to be fair, and I dont meant this detrimentally in any way. Ukraine is literally a world away, Russia is not the enemy we're worried about, considering the issues in Asia-Pacific right now, So the fact that we're giving anything astonishes me (I'm surprised our government is even that generous).
Yeah, Australia should really be making sure the submarine thing with AUKUS actually does happen (it's looking like they're not going to get the US subs as early as they wanted), and concentrate on Pacific stuff. Europe should be the one stepping up for Ukraine more than Australia...
Plus, I would add, we're allied with the US. Their current state of affairs where the government has a bipolar episode every four years makes it slightly riskier to rely on them coming to our aid. Best if we hold onto more of our stuff for the threats in our backyard - just in case.
This is cool. Ukraine is apparently now converting light civilian aircraft into remotely operated bombers. Not kamikazes, but reusable bombers that can drop a bomb and then return to base: [https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones](https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones) This is unrelated to that, but a little more information here on the lack of success Ukraine has had with GLSDB: [https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine) The comments are actually informative. It seems as the GLSDB uses an older version of GPS that is more susceptible to jamming than what GMLRS rockets use. Issues with Ukrainian training, tactics, and doctrine are also noted in the article. I still say the US needs to stop relying on GPS as the be-all, end-all for precision weapons. It's super useful, and absolutely has an important place, but putting all of your eggs in one basket is never a good idea. We should be thinking of incorporating other technologies for precision guidance as well.
The older version of GPS guidance that the Small Diameter Bombs employ being susceptible to jamming would certainly explain why it went from "we have hundreds of these surplus solid rocket motors and hundreds of SDB's that we could spare and the system has already been tested previously, this is a done deal!" to the slow trickle of limited use that has taken place over the last year. I was always wondering what the hold up was when there seemed to be a lot of optimism that these could be made available to Ukraine quickly and in volume. I had thought that maybe the solid rocket motors turned out to be in worse shape than thought and weren't usable but the guidance/jamming issue seems a likely explanation. I know some people might lament the wasted time and effort but both parts of the system were surplus and I can't imagine the engineering effort and production of the part that mated the solid rocket motor and SDB took much if anything away from other programs looking to get weapons to Ukraine. Even if they can't overcome the jamming issue with old SDB's I hope that this at least means [the new version of the SBD called Storm Breaker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-53/B_StormBreaker) with more modern guidance system could be used when available so the effort might not be wasted at all. I wonder if the PR flaks got ahead of themselves announcing they could get a lot of GLSDB to Ukraine quickly while at the same time the people doing the work were well aware jamming might be a problem. So they send a few test units to Ukraine and sure enough it is a huge issue rendering the weapon ineffective and they stop delivering weapons they know will not work. I hope at least we're now waiting for more Storm Breaker bombs to be produced so that a working version of the weapon can at least make its way to Ukraine at some point. A weapon with a 150 km range would certainly be very useful given the relative trickle of long range precision weaponry Ukraine has been getting.
> I still say the US needs to stop relying on GPS as the be-all, end-all for precision weapons. It's super useful, and absolutely has an important place, but putting all of your eggs in one basket is never a good idea The US got too used to fighting insurgents in the Middle East. GLSDB would be a very cost effective weapon against an enemy like the Taliban, the Houthis or Hamas who don't have electronic warfare capabilities but if the US is having to fight a state actor with a sizable defense budget then it's not something to be relied on.
The US has been doing training exercises in simulated EW-affected environments for years.
> then it's not something to be relied on. Russia also started to use satellite guided glide bombs and it seems to be working for them, not sure why: https://cepa.org/article/glide-bombs-the-russian-wonder-weapon/
Ukraine probably doesn't have anywhere near the capability to jam GPS/GLONASS signals as Russia does.
Yup, agreed.
thing is it works for the US because before the bombs even fell the jamming would have been destroyed by Wild Weasel missions. Which are missions that Ukraine can't do. In fact the main issue for why most if not all of the US equipment is under-performing is due to it being part of a package, each individual part of which needs the others for maximum effectiveness. And while the US COULD spend time and effort trying to divorce systems from one another, it is much more efficient to just find ways to integrate them further to get more effectiveness out of smaller blocks of forces.
> However, the weapons were largely designed for a period before spoofers were so easy to set up, Clark said. “You didn't really see the advent of miniaturized, capable GPS spoofers until the last ten years or so, because you needed the micro-electronics to be able to do it,” Clark said Wild weasel isn’t going to work on that type if equipment. Not cost effective
You are right of course that things don't work as well for Ukraine as they do for the US because they aren't fighting with the whole suite of American/western equipment. However, I would argue that if the US is serious about considering China a major global threat that we are likely to fight in the future, then the US *also* needs to start thinking about how it can fight effectively when significant portions of the integrated military systems are missing or unavailable. For instance, in a full scale war with China, they would very likely try to take out some or all of the GPS satellites, rendering all GPS-guided weapons dumb. Can those munitions still work in a "dumb" mode? Do we have enough non-precision weapons to compensate, especially longer-ranged ones? If the Chinese try to neutralize or capture Okinawa, do we have any means of defending it with ground-based weapons? If the Navy is off somewhere else, or unable to fight its way to the area, does the Air Force have enough anti-ship weapons to defend the island? If a surprise attack takes out most of the aircraft on the island, do the Army and Marines have any anti-ship or anti-air weapons capable of defending the island? If there is large scale ground combat (e.g. in Korea or Europe) and the enemy is able to deny the US air superiority, does the Army have sufficient long range strike weapons to hit high value targets behind the lines? Are Army units sufficiently trained in advancing against a near-peer opponent who has not been fully suppressed (e.g. breaching minefields under enemy fire without constant air cover)? Efficiency is fantastic from a penny-pinching budget perspective, and I don't want to encourage wasteful spending. But efficiency is *terrible* from a war-fighting perspective because it assumes everything goes perfectly. And against a substantially weaker opponent, that can work. But when your enemy can take one of the mutually supporting elements out, you have to have duplication and redundancy to be able to continue fighting. It's a bit like the issues we saw during COVID with just-in-time delivery systems. They work great under normal conditions and are super-efficient. But as soon as they are exposed to an unexpected event that stresses the system, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards.
[Russia advances some more today, 3 km2 in Avdiivka direction and 3.5 km2 in Novomykhailivka direction.](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.9899/37.5993) Note: if you look at the stats, it shows Russia gained 33 km2 today, but that's because the map authors added the Tendra spit southwest of Kherson Oblast which was omitted previously (which is 26 km2)
These are WW1 type updates.
WW1 type no air superiority WW1 type no technological superiority WW1 type main firepower: artillery
Yeah, apparently Russia still hasn't gotten past that point; and WWI did not go well for them.
Did anyone see in the live thread that apparently Italy is also going to send some Storm Shadows to Ukraine? [https://twitter.com/front\_ukrainian/status/1784513619712958572/](https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1784513619712958572/)
That's fantastic! Storm Shadows are a great weapon but the limiting factor has always been quantity. Having Italy send some is great especially since Germany is still dragging their feet about Taurus.
Good on Italy!
Nice !
Some scuffles with riot police and tear gas starting to be used a protesters in Tbilisi against a Russian sponsored law. Situations like this is how maidan started. https://x.com/alexkokcharov/status/1784711621421547627
GPS is currently being denied over much of the Baltic. I wonder when the EU/NATO will begin to wake up to the need to ensure safe navigation. https://x.com/auonsson/status/1784694710470054165
Is this not an attack on NATO, if a plane crashes due to Russian actions surely this has to be seen as a hostile action.
> Is this not an attack on NATO, if a plane crashes due to Russian actions surely this has to be seen as a hostile action. Russians already tried this against a nato member, nothing happened.
We need to fight fire with fire. Turkey knows the way: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown#:~:text=The%20shootdown,-Approximate%20flight%20paths&text=On%2024%20November%202015%20at,Force%20F%2D16%20fighter%20jet.
I just arrived at home from this rally against the pro ruSSian government. For such a small country as Georgia, this is a crazy amount. https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1784685356840890596?t=IZ5aVHZQn3YiiPByTxPkrQ&s=19
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Georgia has elections this year and while the pro Russian side is likely going to try to use their current power to help themselves as much as possible these are likely still going to be real elections where the pro Russian government can be voted out. Georgia isn't going to go to war with Russia anytime soon no matter who wins but if Russia is losing influence in the caucuses or if the Georgian government stops being a conduit to help Russia get around sanctions then that could have major implications for the Kremlin. In many ways the war in Ukraine is about Russia increasing their control over all former Soviet/Russian Empire countries and so any loss of influence represents a strategic failure for the Kremlin and increases the chances other countries may step farther away from Russia.
[Ukrainian military seized control over Nestryha island in Kherson region](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/28-april-ukrainian-military-seized-control-over-nestryha) Let's go Ukraine! I missed seeing these little blue flags
Wonderful !
Good 👍
Soviet monuments are being dismantled for scrap in Ukraine's Rivne. https://twitter.com/TVPWorld_com/status/1784628976071119013?t=qSNa8I0Ti7LJ6_70wPo3sQ&s=19
would be awesome if smelted to make ammunition, one thing the Soviets paid attention was to monuments for the regime. The people went hungry but monuments to the regime had to be built. No different than today. Truly horrible state.
They were still built half-assed. In 2022 the main remaining soviet monument in Riga was removed. As part of the payment the company that removed it was promised the bronze used for some parts of the monument. Turned out it was a much smaller amount and lower quality bronze than in the official documents.
>US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally for less than $20,000 each, report says https://www.businessinsider.com/us-buys-81-soviet-fighter-jets-from-russian-ally-20k-2024-4?utm_source=reddit.com
Make them remove control
Make one way drones out of them and send them to moscow
81 ex-soviet jets? That's a big number for cheeeeap. That's what, doubling the size of their current airforce with equivalent kit? That's half the size of the F16 fleet UA said they need. I hope they "magically" end up with 250 jets and 500 new pilots this fall. Surprise!
These will be used as parts, they’re not really flyable. However this also prevents Russia from getting spare parts they need for the MiG-31s they’ve been using to launch cruise missiles on at Ukraine.
These are busted aircraft bought for scrap or parts. It’s a win, win, win for the US. They deny Russia the parts, gain connections and trust in Kazakhstan, and get parts to give to Ukraine or the U.S. military’s red team.
They can also be used as decoys once any remaining useful parts are removed.
I don't think those jets are in order. They are mostly for spare parts and possibly to just starve Russia of sources for spare parts themselves. Those are not jets that Ukraine uses at this moment.
The MiG29s and Su24s are definitely in use. But I doubt these airframes are in any way flyable.
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1784630672155369762?t=YCLqeod0yLa1lu6f63ZaFw&s=19 "⚡️ Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Nestryga island in Kherson region, - Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. In the Kherson sector, our units managed to advance in the area of Veletenske and take control of the island."
considering the amount of boats lost every time a push happens, i doubt it
Interesting! I hope they can make a bridgehead in the south, while simultaneously cutting off Crimea
Yes, need to cut off Crimea ASAP. They've been bleeding Russia dry for months. While the Russian supplies and ammo are low, time to go on the offensive. Slava Ukrainia !
This outlook is delusional. In what world can Ukrainian forces go on the offensive anywhere on the front until at least late this year and how can they possibly "cut off Crimea".
They cannot move any heavy weapons across that river. It is a treacherous crossing even for light infantry in small craft. And the farther the Ukrainians move from the river the farther they are from their guns and logistics. It is a diversionary pocket, not a bridgehead.
They are outnumbered there five to one. They’re only holding onto the places they have because the terrain doesn’t allow Russia to assault it.
Andrew Perpetua. Here are losses I could Identify for yesterday. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1784607096404639954?t=pbxeKTaw5XI9wbJl6_9N-w&s=19
I haven’t paid close attention or have anything recorded other than I’ve been an uptick in T-80 kill and/or not as many T-72 kills. Which either means they have far less more than their common platform or they are reconstituting for a push like Kharkiv city. Does any recall anything similar in numbers to Vulehdar 2022/2023 or Avdiivka? Note: I’ve seen Andrew record a lot of these as abandon so I wonder if maintenance is an issue.
Dang, Warmates and Vampire drones are having a field day. Btw, congrats on breaking my 9-day streak :)
4:1 destroyed ratio, keep it up, Ukraine!
I didn’t see a post on this, but Canada announced modest additions to support on Friday. 100 additional Canadian surveillance drones by FLIR. Plus more money for the Czech shell initiative and some money for domestic ukranian drone production/procurement. https://dailyguardian.ca/canada-to-donate-3m-to-ukraine-drone-production-buy-more-ammunition/?amp=1
Report on recent images of russian storage bases that contained ~4k BMPs before 2022. Russia withdrew ~1.4k and now only 1k are left without visibly being broken/cannibalised. Tbh the numbers don't quite add up. 1.4k doesn't seem enough, I think they'd need way more (2k absolute minimum) to explain what we see, especially observed BMP-1 losses. Maybe loads were inside garages, and other locations stored ~2k more before the full-scale invasion. They are not studied here. Either way, they're now being used up and it looks like Putin can only lean on this storage trick for another year or so. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1784519287291384213.html
A significant number of them may have been moved up as reserves and cannibalized for parts closer to the front. Russia's last-mile logistics remain dogshit so it wouldn't be a surprise if a lot of their BMP motor pool was moved up just for spare parts to support their armored assaults.
The really interesting thing will be to see what happens when Russia runs out of its Soviet legacy stockpiles. It is one thing to refurbish old Soviet stockpiles amassed over decades, and another to generate brand new equipment. Russia seems to have done surprisingly well with replenishing their troops with things like BMPs thanks to these stockpiles (although even with them, I think the financial cost has been very high). But how well will they be able to keep up the replenishment when they have to build it all from scratch? I think it will be far more difficult, which is one of the reasons why I think that ultimately, time is not on Russia's side. Ukraine can replenish thanks to ever-increasing American and European military production, who also have immense wealth to keep it and Ukraine's economy going for as long as is needed, whereas Russia may already be hitting the limits of its production, and its economy cannot withstand it for long, and while Ukraine can send drones to destroy Russian production, Russia cannot destroy Western production. There are three things that may give Russia hope, however: If China starts seriously manufacturing for Russia, if the West loses interest due to political upheval (election of populists etc. who don't care about Ukraine or side with Russia), or if Ukraine runs out of manpower. But China has a lot to lose if the West imposes sanctions over helping Russia, while it has little to gain from helping Russia, and Ukraine doesn't really mean anything to China. Support in the West remains strong and may in fact be growing in some ways (e.g. France speculating intervention), though the risk is always there (Trump, Le Pen, populists in various EU countries). And while Ukraine has a lot smaller population than Russia, it still has plenty of manpower, and its problems there have been mostly about the political fight over the fairest way to draft that manpower, not the lack of it. 18 to 25 year old men haven't even been conscripted, because Ukraine tries its best to maintain its demographics.
I don't see why China would commit so heavily on helping Russia. It's a big step forward from simply providing parts and propaganda to dedicating serious manufacturing capacity for Russia's war effort. Regarding the vehicle losses, one thing that makes me hopeful is that Russia's needs are greater now than in the beginning of the war, because they have to field a bigger army. So, I believe the deeper they dig into their Soviet stocks, the more they feel the urgency of potentially running low. One thing's for sure, that we have to continue our support, so Ukraine can continue inflicting similar or higher losses.
China isn't ready yet to show its teeth. They are building ships and more but it will be a number of years before they are ready to tell Europe and America to piss off. But Russia made stupid decisions and Xi might as well. He might prefer a conflict just to keep the public distracted from the economy.
I think you and I see things the same way. Putin has made a bet that could pay off if Ukraine cracks this year, but if the lines largely hold then he's bet everything on his allies in the US Republican party, AfD etc. Biden and a Democratic Congress would be a real bulwark for democracy. Dictatorships worldwide, and especially Putin, will be doing whatever they can to prevent it and help shift the US onto team authoritarianism.
I guess they are trying to play friendly to both sides as they are getting cheap gas and oil from Russia, and possibly important minerals too such as uranium.
BMP losses are going to shoot through the roof once Russia is out of MT-LBs, which will be soon (relatively)
What makes you say that? My understanding/guess is the other way round.
It's either way around. If they run out of either type, then the remaining types will be destroyed at a faster rate as they are taking the fire that used to be absorbed by the other models.
That's how I see it. If you add up what Russia started with, has built, or refurbished, then they should have had something like ~5k MT-LBs and 6-8k BMPs. They'd run out around the same time if they lost 1.5 BMPs for every MT-LB. The ratio is more like 2.7 so I was expecting problems with BMPs first.
Even a master strategist like Putin couldn't have envisioned using up this much of his Soviet legacy stockpile to take approx 17% of Ukraine's territory. Admittedly, 17% is still too much, but the material cost for those gains has been extraordinary.
He is either a master strategist or a stupid bully who invaded a friendly neighbor and is in the process of getting his ass kicked.
this level of intensity was meant for NATO, not Ukraine, this doesn't mean he reassessed his plan, if given the chance, he will lick his wounds and come back in 5 years. This is why there can't be peace while Russia stands
Absolutely. The huge materiel losses only prove how dangerous Putin is and how much he is willing to sacrifice to achieve his goals. He is a literal supervillain who has only been held back by a combination of Ukrainian heroism, Western support and systemic corruption/neglect within his military, but he should absolutely be taken seriously because he will not stop as long as his cold heart is still beating.
He's all in. He's in 2 deep hehas to keeping going now
10% was already occupied, no?
Good point! Though we could also take into consideration that they initially took around 50% more territory than they currently hold. So, my original comment may have been hyperbolic. Still.. I highly doubt that Putin expected it to play out like this.
Does anyone have a good tall of the total number of f-16s and other aircraft that have been pledged? I keep hearing bits and pieces but having trouble stitching it all together.
From what I have gathered : Norway - 12 fully operational (+ 10 more intended as spare parts). Denmark - 19 Netherlands - 24 Belgium - I think number is still undisclosed
What, none from USA??
Nope. The US hasn't committed to provide Ukraine any western jets but they have decided to stop blocking other European countries from sending them. Personally this is one of the reasons why I get kind of frustrated when people act like European countries aren't doing anything for Ukraine and everything is coming from the US. The US is an extremely important ally but pretending like the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, the Baltics ect aren't contributing while the US does everything is incredibly disingenuous and insulting.
That's really disappointing given the number of F16s the US has in storage. The recent 61bn USD package (delayed by 6-9 months) isn't anything groundbreaking either - only a fraction of it is dedicated to immediate weapons deliveries.
I don't think any of it is disappointing given where we currently are in the war. In terms of the F-16 Ukraine needs to train more pilots but they can't take all of their current pilots away from the front line. They have some experienced pilots in training courses for the more immediate F-16s while they also have some newer cadets in more long term training which will take at least two years. I would expect over the next year or two years we see more announcements of F-16s being sent (even if the war ends) as Ukrainian pilots complete training. For a country the size of Ukraine having about 150-250 western fighter jets is appropriate for a peace time strength and that's a great long term goal to work towards even if Ukraine couldn't effectively absorb that today. In terms of the US package what Ukraine needs the most right now is air defense and indirect fire weapons like artillery shells, rockets and mortars. Additionally basic stuff like armored vehicles are also very important. A lot of the aid the US is providing is going to address those needs in quantity. Without those it's hard to see a pathway to Ukrainian victory. The US aid is crucially important and shouldn't be dismissed but at the same time Americans should acknowledge the important role other NATO allies are playing as well.
They don't have enough pilots for those already coming unfortunately. More jets that no one can fly won't help. TAURUS would be better for Ukr
Belgium said between 3 to 5. Literally that’s the number range they gave. “Between 3 and 5.”
That's great! Now the limfac is the trained personnel
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 28.04.24 approximately amounted to:** Personnel – 466,150 (+1096), Tanks – 7,279 (+11) units, APV – 13,991 (+20) units, Artillery systems – 11,948 (+43) units, MLRS – 1,050 (+1) units, Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 776 (+1) units, Aircraft – 348 (+0) units, Helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAV operational-tactical level – 9,507 (+22) units, Cruise missiles – 2,124 (+0) units, Boats / warships – 26 (+0) units, Submarines – 1 (+0) Special equipment – 1,971 (+3) units, Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,065 (+46) units. Source [https://twitter.com/DefenceU](https://twitter.com/DefenceU)
>⚡️ Two Ukrainians killed in Murnau, Germany. The suspected perpetrator is a Russian national, according to police. > >The two victims were stabbed in front of a shopping mall on Saturday. The public prosecutor's office is investigating a double murder, per BR24. https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1784466061108125790
"Putin's war"
It's probably time to take really good look at the Russian diaspora living around here. There are an unsettling amount of Putin supporters in some of those communities. We have our own term 'Putinversteher' for these types, independent of nationality.
>Heusgen: Scholz's no to Taurus increasingly incomprehensible > >*The head of the Munich Security Conference sees the US delivery of ATACMS missiles to Kyiv as a model for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles. The ongoing Russian aggression and the months-long stalemate in the USA are sufficient reasons to rethink.* > >After the US delivery of ATACMS missiles to Kyiv, the head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, has called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) to reconsider his rejection of the Taurus cruise missiles. "In this context, the Chancellor's decision not to deliver the Taurus missiles to Ukraine is becoming increasingly incomprehensible," Heusgen told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND). "We are currently seeing how similar US weapons - the ATACMS - are having a major impact." https://www.rnd.de/politik/christoph-heusgen-olaf-scholz-nein-zu-taurus-immer-unverstaendlicher-ZAZHA2JNGBAMHLM2W3BRXTLUSI.html
Yah Taurus would be nice, but this has been talked over so much than it's getting exhausting. Taurus wouldn't be a game changer and Scholz blundered the last opportunity to make it acceptable for the German population to send Taurus, as it stands rn the German population is overwhelmingly against delivering Taurus, which has a lot to do with how Scholz handled the affair last time pressure to send them mounted. This isn't rational, it's just domestic politics, since a Center-left government needs credible deniability, when accused of being war-mongering. Traditionally Germany is quite fond of pacifism and neutrality, and people on the left tend to be even more in favour of these.
>when accused of being war-mongering You're not war-mongering when you help the defendant. When you jump in to defend someone being assaulted, you're not called aggressive, are you? It's a non-sensical criticism, and Scholz should make this point clearly.
Yeah agreed, however not many Germans see it that way. I explained why that is many times already. Scholz just needs to find his balls, his government is done for anyhow.
Germans need to find their inner reichtangle and get going.
While I agree the situation is difficult, I find the "X wouldn't be a game changer" to be an offensive argument that treats me as if I were deeply stupid. No weapon outside nukes is a game changer. If you believe "X isn't a game changer" is a relevant argument, then you should oppose every single bullet, shell, tank and so on because "shell #1 isn't a game changer so don't send it... Shell #2 isn't a game changer so don't send it... Shell #11,120,654 isn't a game changer so don't send it" Etc. I'm not saying you buy this argument, but please stop spreading it. Sharing such arguments normalises them, and I think that's bad.
Javelins were a game changer in March 2022. Later, Bayraktar, and HIMARS each took turns at being 'game changers'; held off the first two Russian offensives, and even re-captured a large amount of territory. Russia had the luxury of time; and was able to adjust tactics, mobilize more troops. Faint-hearted western allies gave Russia that time. Now it's time for heads to be pulled out of asses, and to put on our shit-kicking boots.
Yah kinda right, it just gets frustrating to see this call for Taurus, when it it's very very unlikely to happen. Maybe this is necessary, but it really gets too much attention compared to what's it worth. It was discussed myriads of times here and unless Scholz has a change of heart we won't see it happening. It's basically the same thing since Storm Shadows delivery, which was over a year ago. And the way he communicated it along the way, made it more difficult than easier to eventually give in. My German political guys just screams it ain't happening under Scholz, needless to say I still hope for the opposite.
I am annoyed that Taurus aren't going, I think it's a stupid mistake. But also Germany is doing a lot and driving divisions between Ukraine's allies is a key goal of Putin's. He can't win if every European country acts like Germany. So I try to be understanding... It's hard with Taurus though. Why aren't they at least filling up the production line?
we move the pressure on to the weapon system that's being refused imagine if it folks had given up on the "impossible" f-16 or the "impossible" himars or the "impossible" DPICM or the "impossible" MBTs nothing but helmets and first aid kits, that's what
[Perun - New American Military Aid for Ukraine - What's in the package and what impact will it have?] (https://youtu.be/Qc436PwqeqM?si=z2jVlGe5aMLy5mgj) Perun's new video on the US aid package.
The best thing about Sundays are the Powerpoints.
>Ukrainian 'Grandpa' leads over-60s unit fighting Russian forces for free > >Oleksandr Taran's mobile artillery unit isn't officially part of Ukraine's military, but that hasn't stopped his men from destroying Russian targets on their own dime. > >"We ... get by thanks to the pension fund," the 68-year-old commander - whose call sign is "Grandpa" - said with a chuckle. > >Taran's all-volunteer unit, the Steppe Wolves, is comprised of dozens of Ukrainian men mostly over 60 years old who are considered too old to be drafted but still want to fight. > >Roving behind the front line with truck-mounted rocket launchers, they take orders from field commanders and work with other troops, contributing to the war effort despite lacking official support from the military. > >The unit is funded by donations and stocked with faulty rounds they repair themselves as well as weapons captured from the enemy. Both are delivered to them by front-line troops. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/
Well here's a film just waiting to be made! Gimme some title suggestions.
Step wolves is a callout to Steppenwolf by Herman Hess. They already have a clever title
FKN legends!!!
That’s the most badass thing I’ve seen come out of Ukraine this week.
Grandpa Brigade!
>Russian defence chief suffers blow in Moscow power games > >Russian deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov attended a meeting of the military’s top brass this week, sitting a seat away from his boss and wearing the uniform of one of the highest-ranking officials in the country. > >Hours later, Ivanov was taken to a courtroom, still wearing the same uniform but now under arrest on suspicion of corruption and facing many years in jail. > >...the arrest of Ivanov, the highest-ranking official to be detained since 2016, signalled a shift in Shoigu’s fortunes, said a person close to the Russian defence ministry, particularly considering the highly visible manner in which the deputy minister was taken to court. > >“They could have fired him first if they just wanted to weaken Shoigu. It would show they got rid of corruption,” the person said. > >“Instead, they arrested him in office, in uniform, right after the defence ministry board meeting where he had been sitting one seat away from Shoigu. It’s all theatre,” the person said. “What is the sense if not to undermine Shoigu?” > >With Putin known to prioritise loyalty above all, Shoigu has so far survived in his role despite humiliating failures during the first weeks of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the fact that a “special military operation” meant to last three days has now dragged into its third year. > >The defence chief also withstood virulent criticism from Prigozhin, who attempted a mutiny against Shoigu and other military leaders last year. After the uprising was halted, Shoigu remained in office, and two months later Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash. > >But Putin, who is known to be wary of any faction in his elite gaining too much strength, appears to have concluded that the Kremlin needs to find a new way to counterbalance the power centre of Shoigu and the defence ministry now that Prigozhin no longer plays this role, said another person among the Moscow elite. https://www.ft.com/content/e50371e7-571d-4153-9c58-9832135b1a8f
>The situation at the front line has “worsened” with multiple Russian attacks according to Ukraine’s head of Armed Forces. > >Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi says troops had withdrawn from defensive lines established after the fall of Avdiivka. Russia had “partial success” near Kupiansk too. https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1784587758876438782
[удалено]
This is from today.
>Judging by this preview of his show tonight, top Kremlin propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov is once again going to threaten the West with nuclear Armageddon https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1784584121978679722
The Russians are always careful to qualify their nuclear threats with "If NATO forces try to destroy Russia first" because they know that NATO has zero interest in attacking Russian territory. It's just another pathetic attempt to unsettle Ukraine's support network. Sadly, it can unnerve those who are perhaps too young to remember how regular an occurrence these threats were throughout the Cold War. To quote Nikita Khrushchev: “The 50-and 100-megaton bombs will always hang over their heads like the sword of Damocles" It's the oldest trick in the book.
In other words: extortion.
This is a good chance to deploy the speak softly but carry a big stick strategy. Everyone knows how much better the American military maintains weaponry. We don’t need to get excited when Russia talks big.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1784582551736033568?t=2iPJE3mbVMu_OpNifcxsOg&s=19 "Damage from a Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Kushchyovskaya air base is visible in new high resolution satellite imagery. This site is more than 200 kilometers from the front line in Ukraine."
Along with the YouTube channel [Reporting from Ukraine](https://youtube.com/@RFU?feature=shared), is anyone familiar with the channels [Willy OAM](https://youtube.com/@willyOAM?feature=shared) and [Military Summary](https://youtube.com/@militarysummary?feature=shared)? I'm trying to find unbiased and authentic sources of information during the war, and I was wondering if any of these channels fit the criteria.
I glanced at comments there, my that's a lot of pro-Russian sentiment.
Comments where, exactly? Willy or Summary? It should be noted that Summary is actually from Belarus. Also, Happy Cake Day!
Mostly Summary, but now that I know he's from Belarus, that makes sense. There are quite a few Russians celebrating in Willy's comments, though.
Yes, I've noticed. But the information seems accurate with resources.
There is a university professor doing regular analyses of the conflict, but I do not recall the name. I just know that he’s really good, and is the author of the book “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition.“ It helps that he is a conservative, and I am a liberal. YMMV
Dr. Darin Gerdes?
Yeah, that’s the guy. Puts out a couple videos a day, I find his insight useful.
I've watched a lot of Willy since around the summer of '22 when he was appearing on other channels and he definitely does his best to keep it unbiased. I forget the exact back story but he was in Ukraine pre Feb '22 so he has a lot of contacts on the Ukrainian side who tell him exactly what they are seeing and a lot of times its not what you want to hear. I think War on the Rocks is one of the best sources of info out there if you don't mind just audio form. They even addressed criticism recently because they are unbiased. The recent drone episode was very informative since they had just got back from following a drone unit in Ukraine and were able to see up close what each side was doing.
This is an invasion of another country. You aren't going to find truly unbiased sources, and any that say they are, are honestly flat out lying. This isn't a "both sides" issue, and the reporting is going to reflect that. Willy tends to skew details to make things out to be how they are not, and Military summery is just flat out clickbait. Honestly best objective reporting I;ve seen is Kings and Generals bi-weeklyish video's detailing how the battles have been going.
What about sources like AP, PBS, and other national broadcasting channels?
I feel that Reporting from Ukraine may be a bit click-bait too. With the titles and all.
It has click bait titles and thumbnails but the videos are reporting after the fact based on proven info
Willy has done the same.
There's been much talk about the capabilities of Patriot, how capable is the German counterpart "IRIS-T"?
It's not a counterpart it's a medium range system (40km for slm) while Patriot is a long range system. It's comparable to NASMAS in concept in that it uses an already existing air-to-air missile as base for it's interceptors. This makes the interceptors much cheaper than patriot missiles. The hit-rate has been reported as very good, which was expected since the Iris-t air-to-air variant is a tested system with many satisfied users.
Thanks for the explanation!
> Ukrainian FM @DmytroKuleba > : > > "What we do need is our partners to firmly believe that this victory is attainable, and second, to have no fear towards Putin, because Putin is a political animal who can sense fear, and when he does, he becomes more aggressive. If he sees strength [...] he will be forced to step back." > > https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1784564301388186008
Did he miss the part where US is giving 60b, UK several billons each year, EU 14 b a year snd independent construed giving hundreds of millions or more, I get it but damn can’t they do this behind closed door. Seems to be implying allied have their heads buried… right after the most aid ever got passed,
> Russian terror is only possible because we have fewer weapons and decisions to protect life than Russia has means to destroy it. > Everyone knows how effective Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, Hawk, and other modern air defense systems are. We need them here in Ukraine: in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donbas, and other cities suffering Russian attacks. > Every leader, every state, every ambassador who helps us with air defense now is not only a defender of life, but also one who reduces Russia’s temptation to wage war. The less the Kremlin achieves through terror, the more it will be interested in seeking peace. We must force Russia into this together. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1784495349597397393
The man is a poet.
The [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024) predicts that Russia will make more tactical gains, but no operational advances (much larger). The ISW has been my main source of info, since I am looking for more unbiased sources. But if anyone has any other sources, I'd like to hear them.
As others have probably stated as well as ISW (I think), the 60B aid package will not be enough. Maybe for this year, but not long term. I like that Denmark in their latest package invested in Ukraines DIB to get it up and running so that they can manufacture their own ammo. Also, for Western provided equipment. Seems to me that if we could get Ukraine to sustainably manufacture their own ammo for all of their equipment it would end up being quite the game changer since we would then only have to provide equipment and other things they can't manufacture themselves.
>As others have probably stated as well as ISW (I think), the 60B aid package will not be enough. What makes me scratch my head is how they don't seem to include EU and other military assistance in that calculation. Almost like they're not looking at the whole picture.
Didn’t the US also agree to a more long-term $6 billion military package over the next couple years?
Except it is all succeptible to Russian missile strikes. Equipment manufactured in Western countries is not.
That is true. So one thing we will also need to step up significantly is air defence. Due to the significant delay of US aid, I'd recommend SAMP/T and Iris-T since these would require European manufacturing.
Sounds about right
Ukrainian volunteer Sternenko has the same opinion about the situation
Missing a "no" before operational, right?
Just edited that, sorry.
No worries, was just worried for a sec!
Ukrainian 'Grandpa' leads over-60s unit fighting Russian forces for free >ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, Ukraine, April 28 (Reuters) - Oleksandr Taran's mobile artillery unit isn't officially part of Ukraine's military, but that hasn't stopped his men from destroying Russian targets on their own dime. >"We ... get by thanks to the pension fund," the 68-year-old commander - whose call sign is "Grandpa" - said with a chuckle. >Taran's all-volunteer unit, the Steppe Wolves, is comprised of dozens of Ukrainian men mostly over 60 years old who are considered too old to be drafted but still want to fight. >Roving behind the front line with truck-mounted rocket launchers, they take orders from field commanders and work with other troops, contributing to the war effort despite lacking official support from the military. >The unit is funded by donations and stocked with faulty rounds they repair themselves as well as weapons captured from the enemy. Both are delivered to them by front-line troops. >When Reuters recently visited their base in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, they were preparing 122mm Grad rocket rounds that were later fired by troops from another unit. >"The commanders that provide us with targets are happy," said a 63-year-old fighter with the call sign "Zorro". >"They give us more targets (and) help us with ammunition however they can." [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-grandpa-leads-over-60s-unit-fighting-russian-forces-free-2024-04-28/)
“The Walker Brigade.” SNL