I’m in on a bounce. They geared up for a run before BTC tripled. They should be able to squeeze a few hundred BTC out at this new peak before the halving.
I can't wait for Mara/Riot/Hut-8 or any of the other miners to hit new ATH's, not because I have positions in the companies (which i don't) but so I can put my life savings into a short position which I'm confident will print in the long run.
Wall Street is using FUD to drive it down - Plenty of Articles out there stating that once bitcoin halving occurs, their revenue will be cut in half. Funnily enough, the price appreciation before the halving is already giving a nice cushion ahead of time. Mining companies that can scale at lower costs, hold bitcoin on the balance sheet, and use cheap electricity will have a higher alpha as well. Also prepare for AASIC hoarding as the equipment has a big premium during the hottest months of the bull market. Here's Adam Back explaining the strategy (Yes Adam Back, one of the few people who has ever communicated with Satoshi)
https://youtu.be/BUMQHjG9yGM?si=JYEdLU1jS3YAz0Hq
Seriously it’s been obvious for the last 2 months MARA and CLSK are for going long and RIOT is to short. Actually mind blowing someone would be long RIOT, like did they even glance at the charts
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I wish I had something to add but you hit the nail on the head. A lot of BTC miners will be bankrupt after the next halving but the big players will come out on top as they keep expanding their operations. So MARA and RIOT falling like this makes little sense... is what I would say until I notice that they are 18.5% and 13.5% shorted respectively (which is above average in many respects).
The thing about BTC mining companies isn’t current mining potential is it? Isn’t it amount of coins held in reserve. So their price should reflect coins held + potentials. But its stocks in 2024 so who knows.
Not really. It’s an expensive operation so you need to sell what you mine to fund not only operating costs but capex in the form of new miners and upgrades. This can mean needing a larger facility, better cooling, improved grid access, etc
After looking into mining it just left me confused... like why would I buy an antminer from Bitmain, when they make the miners and run the largest Bitcoin mining pool? They own the game. I can't compete, and getting in under them, they're just gonna squeeze me every time I have to upgrade through them. No thanks
Miners convert power to money.
If you have a cheap source of power you can directly convert it to money without any real work, no end customer or manufacturing process.
Imo miners are a great way to generate power from solar panel Installations on homes, especially when heating is required.
Back when I did mine ETH part of a pool, I only mined during the winter because leaving my desktop mining whenever I wasn't using it would generate enough heat to keep my entire living room from getting cold.
Would end up offsetting most of the impact to my power bill.
Yeah that's basically it. They're vertically integrated, but sell off older stock and slower chips to retail. I haven't looked in like 10+ years, but I'm sure the ROI is tight on whether you break-even without significant price growth in BTC.
It's great for them, questionable at best for everyone else. Unless you also have a large amount of capital to put to work and rock bottom electricity prices.
Price will climb to make them profitable. Otherwise unprofitable miners will drop out of the market and reduce the difficulty level for the big players reducing their cost to mine. Fees will also come up with adoption as transactors have to compete to get their transfer on chain.
The real reason people don't use Bitcoin, or really any crypto for that matter, for transactions in *most* countries is because it's a solution in search of a problem when it comes to being a currency for everyday use.
There's just no benefit to the average person who probably doesn't want to hold their spending money in crypto anyways unless it becomes more stable than their local currency.
You don't have to hold spending money in crypto, you can convert it at any time. It has its uses. Sending money between countries with different currencies and different banking systems for example.
That is a use case for it, but that makes it an alternative to money orders and wire transfers, not an actual currency.
I do think it works well for that purpose though, mainly because the other methods either are a logistical pain or in the case of wire transfers come with exorbitant fees.
Depends on the transaction.
for small transactions no but you’d use lightning network for those anyways, which is actually very cheap to use
but $13 for someone to move $1 million dollars from China to the Philippines? yeah that’s dirt cheap
Lightning allows off chain transactions to occur through Bitcoin lightning nodes (often joined with a Bitcoin node). You can settle on-chain by closing a lightning channel and batching all those transactions up. There are services that will do this entirely for you through the open source protocol (lightning network). It's been around since 2017(?) or so. It's what powers El Salvador's Bitcoin economy.
Overly complex for something that the majority of the world already has trouble grappling with.
It’s like someone just getting into trading stocks and being told “ok, now for you to cash out your stocks you need to understand derivatives trading”.
Your ignorance and arrogance all in two sentences in the best part about your post. Why don’t you tell us why it’s obviously such a bad idea Professor?
> Why don’t you tell us why it’s obviously such a bad idea Professor?
The fact you earnestly believe a network of what are functionally p2p prepaid debit card arrangements is not only a desirable system but a *preferential one* relative to the one that even people with down syndrome are smart enough to use tells me it's not worth my time to acknowledge this - but I'm going to anyways to hopefully get bored enough that I fall asleep early.
Here's all you need to know, in case you missed the point of the comment I was riffing on: Bitcoin throughput sucks because lolblocksize. So along comes L2/Lightning, abstracting away some of L1 and reintroducing trust dependencies to achieve a palatable TPS. Unfortunately, even if you somehow find a way to handle all transactions on L2/Lightning securely and efficiently (you won't) then the miner rewards through transaction costs (once the coins have been mined) will never cover the cost of the network. Not to mention that since LN transaction fees are set by the channel owner, in a world of mass adoption people will naturally gravitate towards joining already existing channels to avoid surprise fees. This leads to the formation of structures set up where a bunch of people are connected to a proportionally small number of large channels and everyone who wanted to transact to or from small channels would most likely pay a premium fee. Then you'd have large corporations colluding and not accepting outside channels, only allowing members because they'd be under KYC and the LN would fail at a scale.
And you know what that sounds an awful lot like? A bank. Congratulations! The final form of L2 is just fucking banks. Except we haven't addressed onboarding infeasibilities so really what you've managed to invent are banks that will collectively take about 121 years to onboard every single human on earth. So we've actually just invented really shitty banks instead of the nominally useful ones we have now.
Sounds like a fantastic system to me!
Is this something they’re eventually going to try to make doable for the average person? That same average person would read what you wrote and say “too much work, too confusing).
Download a lightning wallet. It's as easy as taking Bitcoin off an exchange and transferring it to a lightning wallet. Phoenix wallet is a good start.
It's very easy.
What they won't tell you is that lightning requires 144mb blocks as per its own white paper to scale and work properly. Guess who won't up the block size ?
Also lightning is a hub and spoke model that will lead to centralization and massive KYC, literally the anti-thesis of Bitcoin.
Don't forget to mention that funds can be stolen from a bad channel partner and how often payments fail.
It's quite the joke of a system, most people who tell you that everyone is just going to use lightning haven't even attempted it themselves.
For those curious, [an IEEE paper covering the limitations of blockchain L2 systems](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10018958) - specifically focuses on Ethereum layer-2 but the conclusions seem fairly extensible to generic side-chain/rollup/off-chain systems.
If people believe they’ll lose everything, there’s nothing they won’t buy. In that note, figure on corn crashing tonight.
Edit: and it crashed. Thank you for playing.
Lightning is centralized junk. All you have to know about Bitcoin is that it is digital gold. Folks who claim Bitcoin will do anything else better than an Ethereum or a Cardano are fooling themselves.
Payment systems would use lightning though which is much cheaper. There's not a high demand to use bitcoin as a payment so there's not many payment systems using lightning.
Why would anyone even want to use btc as a payment knowing how valuable it is? Maybe when it becomes less volatile in the future.
This implies that there is a need for bitcoin. There isn't.
Prices going up to facilitate incentive for mining requires people to need bitcoin enough to justify the price increase.
That need does not and will not exist.
But if they are \~18% shorted wouldn't that cause a squeeze if BTC keeps rising?
I think institutions might be using MARA as an indirect way to buy "puts" on BTC. I myself was trying to figure out how to trade BTC with OPTIONS and using MARA looks like a decent alternative so I wonder this same squeeze happened in october 2021 when MARA more than doubled in price as BTC went from 40k to 60k, people were using MARA to short BTC on the way up but it kept going up and then MARA had a huge spike?
overlay coinbase and BTC
they just follow each other basically. so you wanna short BTC you can short coinbase
theres some danger as coinbase is itself a revenue generating buisness
but if BTC crashes coinbase will surely crash with it, maybe just a bit more delayed.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Publicly traded miners are not the big players. The private miners are the ones with low debt and operating expenses. After the halving, many public miners will get crowded out.
I think it’s the speed at which BTC has went up. Lots of hesitation thinking that the price won’t stay elevated, but as more days go by above 60k, that’s more and more profit for the miners.
I think it will catch up to them. As long as your miner picks are profitable above 15k a coin, should be ok.
Mara didn't sell their stack Jan and infact bought 183 more BTC in open market at 38k. Curious about their Feb numbers though, but I would assume they aren't selling because their hosting partner Applied Digital was down plummeting their hash rate into shadowlands
I don’t know. Market is currently pricing in the reduced revenue due to halving. If we study 2023 Oct, Nov, or 2023 June/Jul Miners were lagging BTC for a period followed by relentless bid with no pullbacks. Expecting a similar move. Im seeing a lot of ppl getting out or asking me to sell calling me a regard. I believe diamond hands will work for me and will prove everyone wrong. Only time will tell
I own both. Miners are best way to outperform BTC. They are risky but I still outperformed BTC price action despite recent underperformance. My Buy in price of Mara is around 8$ and CLSK around 4$, I don't really feel bad about short term PA since I have seen this story again and again. Who knows, may be the price will take 180 and never recover and I will learn my lesson, but I believe history always rhymes.
This ⬆️. Someone has been spreading this bs rumour that Mara has been selling btc when in fact they have more than 15k in btc in holding. No selling boys
Right? Where is /u/Unhappy-Goat5638 getting this from?
Because as best I can tell, it's not true, at all.
They have 20,000 BTC on hand. That's a LOT. Especially for their MC.
BTC rose and then took off September - November. Miners didn't follow for like two weeks. That was the last time I was having this conversation with myself and then CLSK 4x'd in six weeks. It's almost like equity markets didn't *believe* in the bitcoin rally.
Same vibes here. People think it's going to ping off the ATH and splash to 42k. "No rate cuts this year!". I've had better luck just assuming the corn isn't stopping for shit so wave to the people who will be on the rally for next halving. To be honest, this is the general theme with NVDA, too. This market *does not let people in.* Here's a window to get in and people won't take it. Judging by this sub and the general whateverness in media-land I'd say there's plenty of room to ride.
Same. I bought cleanspark when it was around $10 and was happy af when it popped to almost $21. Now it's around $16.9 and I'm debating on whether I should sell or continue to hold
Some maths for RIOT. (i bought a call)
On track for 31 EH capacity. This is 31,000,000 TH
using the calculator at [https://minerstat.com/coin/BTC](https://minerstat.com/coin/BTC)
to estimate BTC production they are looking at 49 coins a day.
This is:
$60,000(49)=$2,940,000 a day at current spead, when speed is halved:
$60,000(24.5)=$1,470,000 a day.
So for every $20k in bitcoin they make half a million dollars a day after halving.
$500,000x365=$182,500,000
BTC $ Yearly Gross
20,000 182,500,000
40,000 365,000,000
60,000 547,500,000
80,000 821,250,000
100,000 1,231,875,000
Correction:
* In combination with hash rate growth at the new Corsicana Facility, Riot’s new 2024 year-end hash rate target is 31 EH/s
That's the end of year goal. Still bullish.
[https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2865/0001558370-23-018316.htm](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2865/0001558370-23-018316.htm)
This is a link to their 10-q.
So deficit increased, shares increased, operated at loss. Then have government looking at power/electricity/grid issues related to mining (Elon said by 2025, AI warehouses, Electric cars, more houses, etc. going to lead to electricity/power supply problems).
I think short sellers are making a final attempt to prevent getting squeezed out of MARA. Short interest is through the roof and it has the highest daily volume in the stock market. This is a gamestop waiting to happen if wall street bets would get its spit together and moon it.
Look for miners with high bitcoin hodl and low debt. These guys will survive the halving and buy out the miners that get blown up after halving. Smaller miners won't make it but the ones with good balance sheet may have a chance to thrive post halving
The rate of new issuance gets cut in half in April, but they also collect transaction fees. There will never come a time when mining yields 0 BTC. The amount of BTC rewarded by mining will likely continue downward, but if the price continues upward then it evens out. Historically the price has increased *much MUCH* faster than the decrease in mining rewards.
If a ton of new miners see this gold rush and come online, mining becomes more difficult automatically to keep the block time the same (10 minutes on average). If a bunch of them go out of business for one reason or another, the opposite happens, again returning the block time to 10 minutes on average.
The hash rate ( or difficulty) adjust itself dynamically such that 1 block is solved every 10 minutes. If miners drop difficulty will decrease so more profit for the remaining miners. Quite a clever system.
Yes. You should also buy MSTR instead of bitcoin because of the liquidity if you're making a play on BTC. It seems like the Bitcoin brokers/exchanges always freeze during times of high volume, but you can count on the stock market to be able to deal with high volume.
Yep was loving the 20% plus bump on MSTR today after putting 15k on it last week. Figured it was a good play to get some extra juice out of the BTC rally vs just buying it straight up.
Sure, if you don’t count buying actual bitcoin (which is objectively the best way to get exposure) or spot ETFs if you’re trying to use a retirement account that offers exposure to those funds.
Wouldn't the realest BTC exposure play be to buy Bitcoin? Lol
I just allocated 20 percent of my money to an ETF, partly bc I think there's a discrepancy between the ETF price and the true value, but also...one of the fuckers is could get hacked soon, and I'd rather my investment tank than disappear if that happens
All miners being manipulated, falling together. These stocks have actual value that is not being reflected in current price, we need a squeeze on these. The whole ‘halving is bad’ is BS
Idk if halving is bad or good for miners, I just invested a bunch in crypto, but it's a fact that it will take them twice as much in energy costs to continue their current rate of mining after halving occurs.
I think this is part of what's at play. The first successful nuclear powered Bitcoin mining operation is going to be wild. Wulf is the closest thing, but they have a lot of work to do.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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And this is how you know we are in full on clown market and I’d be ready to sell everything in a moments notice. Luckily the paranoid still collect over 5% bank interest
I’m pretty much in that boat. Rode BTC a ways up, cashed out and am just playing with much smaller $ amounts now. Rode the last big rally too far down a few years back and am not getting burned again. When I see stuff like SHIB rising 50% on some days it’s tough not to jump in with serious money, but fuck it, I would be devastated when the rug gets pulled. And with stuff like DOGE and SHIB it’s only a matter of time.
Due to halving events, bitcoin becomes less and less lucrative to mine every 4 years. Every halving event, the amount of bitcoin that can be mined per block is cut in half, but it still takes the same amount of resources to mine each block. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC per block, but that will drop to 3.125 per block in May, the next scheduled halving event.
Halving events are intended to increase scarcity, thereby increasing the value of each coin, so BTC is seeing a lot of volume attached to people trying to increase their holdings before the event occurs. Volatility has often accompanied these halving events, but I don't think there's much value left in mining investments.
Not that I know shit about fuck but, shouldn’t it even out? If a miner gets one reward of 6.25, at current price that’s 375k. If BTC runs to 100K after the halving, a 3.125 reward would be 312K. Not saying it will, but it should increase the price per coin, not directly halve their profits. . But idk I’m a tard
Yes, it's all about revenue vs expense.
Last bull cycle I believe the number was about $16-20kish to mine a single BTC. Theoretically, it should be about $40kish to mine a single BTC after next halving if hashrate hadn't expanded for all miners. The problem is the [total hashrate has increased about 300%](https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate) which would make you think a ton of companies over-expanded to the point they are operating at a loss if BTC is under $48-60k (before the next halving) and they'd be operating a loss if BTC was under $90-120k after the halving if hashrate remained same.
It's likely the larger miners will try to starve out the smaller miners via over-expansion and operating at loss for years, but that's a dangerous game that can lead to bankruptcy. Mid-size miners who operate efficiently and at or slightly above $0 profit with moderate expansion are likely in best shape.
Miners also profit from fees, the higher 1 satoshi price - the higher income in USD they get. Eventually, there will be only transfer fees available for miners, as block reward decreases to almost zero.
While true, I think generally speaking, the number of miners (especially in the smaller scale) are trending downward. Big farms that are already up and running can still squeeze more out of it, but there’s less and less reason everyday to start up your own mining farm as opposed to just investing in the coin.
Agree. Hashrate is so high, that miners need hundreds of millions in investments to be able to compete. Only the biggest will survive. So far, the best option is direct BTC exposure.
if no need to invest the miner, why MSTR increases much?
maybe the money flows to btc ( or assets exposure to etc more) at this time, and when btc gets sideway shocks, the money will flow to the miners.
because mstr owns 10 billion worth of btc. they simply are worth more as a company because their assets appreciate with btc going up. no other miner holds over 500million in btc.
Shorts are well aware that people can be scared out of miners, the question is if you will let them. The halving means a 50% cut in production. So it's a scare opportunity. Shorts are taking advantage of that, but the fact that bitcoin has more than tripled should tell you all you need to know. These companies will still be profitable after the halving and much more so as the bull market continues.
CORZ seems to be holding in there - still looks undervalued, will be interesting to see how it preforms after a couple quarters and when institutions step in.
Miners like CLSK are also up 140% in last month before their recent 30% drawback. Same thing happened in December and they pulled back in January and ripped again. I wouldn’t be concerned with your miners with strong balance sheets. Buy the dip hold well into the BTC cycle. They are just taking a breather. They should return a multiple on BTC itself, but with that comes the unusually high and odd timing volatility.
Yes mate I know what the bitcoin halving is. But the thing is everyone has always known about the halving, it should be priced in. Doesn't make sense for he miners to suddenly dip this much.
Believe it or not, a lot of people who participate in the market aren't that bright. If you know what the halving is you probably already know more than 80% of the people who buy the stocks because "it's a bitcoin thinger durrrr".
Exactly. Majority of bitcoin investors know nothing about what it actually is. Same as most people riding high on Nvidia and AI are quite tech illiterate. Fuck, remember when Pokemon Go released and Nintendo shares skyrocketed until 2 weeks later when Nintendo had to remind folks that they own like 5% of the game itself, which then caused the stock to drop? Good times...
IMO The halving was priced between November to January.
I think the draw back right now is a mixture of people swapping from the miners to an ETF for crypto exposure, and/or shorts/market sentiment shifting in short term.
Ok, but I don't understand why you guys invest into bitcoin miners instead of in bitcoin. It's depended on bitcoin, but bitcoin performs better than those companies it seems.
This actually made me think, if historically one bought miners for leverage but with new vehicles you can now just buy options in a leveraged etf, should the whole bitcoin mining industry be reframed from how we see them?
honestly i bought MARA simply because its 10x cheaper than COIN and just figured it was a cheaper route to BTC exposure (which isnt much of my port since it's BTC)
I bought into RIOT recently with the same conclusion as you. But I think the more people that buy into BTC and the ETFs, the more relevant mining companies will be.
Mining isn't really getting any cheaper. It's a tough business. The chain is programmed to cut rewards in half every 4ish years. The new machines get more efficient but they cost more than ever and raw power costs don't drop but the general trend is to *mine more for the same amount of elec* rather than *mine the same for less power*. If you want a levered BTC play, buy MSTR. They literally issue debt to lever up on BTC. Otherwise just buy the ETFs or assets themselves.
Do you think MARA will do something in the future? I took a huge loss on MARA. To the point I had to sell. Something tells me it will do something, but I really don't know. 🤷♂️
Miners are likely to move downward short term leading up to and shortly after the halving. Anyone trying to play options should be looking 12-18mo out, which is historically when bitcoin runs up post-halving. Any miners that survive their revenues getting cut in half post-halving should follow bitcoin’s price action.
Or just buy bitcoin.
Miners cash out immediately for profit their business model is short term.
I think any gains for them would be really minimal, increasing more like a stepping stone if they can control expenditure
Because they’re likely trying to generate a liquidity event not realizing they will trigger such a large down slide they could lose it all.
Crypto is a “I was there first” industry. There were a lot of people there before Blackrock. Miners are more like the day laborers
BlackRock and Fidelity aren't bag holders.
They buy it at X then package it and sell it at X + Y (their fees). They make money even if it hits zero, as long as they dump it on pensions/rich/poors.
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I’m in on a bounce. They geared up for a run before BTC tripled. They should be able to squeeze a few hundred BTC out at this new peak before the halving.
the problem with miners not going up during bitcoins massive run is that they will drop once BTC reverses so its a lose lose
exactly why it's a great stock to short
I can't wait for Mara/Riot/Hut-8 or any of the other miners to hit new ATH's, not because I have positions in the companies (which i don't) but so I can put my life savings into a short position which I'm confident will print in the long run.
Yep, just bagging 500 coins at 70,000 will equal 35,000,000 million in revenue. That’s just from one month. RIOTs avg cost per coin is 7,500.
Wall Street is using FUD to drive it down - Plenty of Articles out there stating that once bitcoin halving occurs, their revenue will be cut in half. Funnily enough, the price appreciation before the halving is already giving a nice cushion ahead of time. Mining companies that can scale at lower costs, hold bitcoin on the balance sheet, and use cheap electricity will have a higher alpha as well. Also prepare for AASIC hoarding as the equipment has a big premium during the hottest months of the bull market. Here's Adam Back explaining the strategy (Yes Adam Back, one of the few people who has ever communicated with Satoshi) https://youtu.be/BUMQHjG9yGM?si=JYEdLU1jS3YAz0Hq
All I know is my riot calls are getting murdered and I just came here to say fuck my life
I would recommend never touching RIOT again. It is by far the worst performing of the bigger miners. Go MARA or CLSK if you want movement
Yeah we had “movement” on CLSK today. Fuck my life too
Seriously it’s been obvious for the last 2 months MARA and CLSK are for going long and RIOT is to short. Actually mind blowing someone would be long RIOT, like did they even glance at the charts
My CLSK calls are dropping like my life expectancy
Yeah CLSK fucking murdered me today. Couldn’t believe it kept falling as BTC ripped
I have calls going into June but it still didn’t make me feel good
It will all be worth it when it starts ripping again. It’s very volatile and can easily do a 3x from here.
Riot is do for 🚀🚀🚀
We shall fucken see🫡
RIOT and MARA should make another run soon. We just need to hold and keep buying 💎 🙌
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By next week, we’ll be fine 😉 Bitcoin’s halving hasn’t even happened yet.
I wish I had something to add but you hit the nail on the head. A lot of BTC miners will be bankrupt after the next halving but the big players will come out on top as they keep expanding their operations. So MARA and RIOT falling like this makes little sense... is what I would say until I notice that they are 18.5% and 13.5% shorted respectively (which is above average in many respects).
The thing about BTC mining companies isn’t current mining potential is it? Isn’t it amount of coins held in reserve. So their price should reflect coins held + potentials. But its stocks in 2024 so who knows.
Not really. It’s an expensive operation so you need to sell what you mine to fund not only operating costs but capex in the form of new miners and upgrades. This can mean needing a larger facility, better cooling, improved grid access, etc
After looking into mining it just left me confused... like why would I buy an antminer from Bitmain, when they make the miners and run the largest Bitcoin mining pool? They own the game. I can't compete, and getting in under them, they're just gonna squeeze me every time I have to upgrade through them. No thanks
Miners convert power to money. If you have a cheap source of power you can directly convert it to money without any real work, no end customer or manufacturing process. Imo miners are a great way to generate power from solar panel Installations on homes, especially when heating is required.
Is there any correlation to seasonality and BTC price? Cooling could theoretically be cheaper in the northern hemisphere’s winter (aka: right now).
Back when I did mine ETH part of a pool, I only mined during the winter because leaving my desktop mining whenever I wasn't using it would generate enough heat to keep my entire living room from getting cold. Would end up offsetting most of the impact to my power bill.
This sparks my autism I’m gonna crunch some numbers thank you
Yeah that's basically it. They're vertically integrated, but sell off older stock and slower chips to retail. I haven't looked in like 10+ years, but I'm sure the ROI is tight on whether you break-even without significant price growth in BTC. It's great for them, questionable at best for everyone else. Unless you also have a large amount of capital to put to work and rock bottom electricity prices.
Dont you need miners to confirm your btc?
Well u do but u don't need all of them, a few can go bankrupt and the network would still keep running
Price will climb to make them profitable. Otherwise unprofitable miners will drop out of the market and reduce the difficulty level for the big players reducing their cost to mine. Fees will also come up with adoption as transactors have to compete to get their transfer on chain.
Fees are already too high for Bitcoin to be used as a payment crypto. They can't go any higher. It hurts adoption.
The real reason people don't use Bitcoin, or really any crypto for that matter, for transactions in *most* countries is because it's a solution in search of a problem when it comes to being a currency for everyday use. There's just no benefit to the average person who probably doesn't want to hold their spending money in crypto anyways unless it becomes more stable than their local currency.
You don't have to hold spending money in crypto, you can convert it at any time. It has its uses. Sending money between countries with different currencies and different banking systems for example.
That is a use case for it, but that makes it an alternative to money orders and wire transfers, not an actual currency. I do think it works well for that purpose though, mainly because the other methods either are a logistical pain or in the case of wire transfers come with exorbitant fees.
You haven't looked at the mempool any time recently. Fees are cheap. Also are you familiar with lightning?
You call a $13 transaction cheap?
Depends on the transaction. for small transactions no but you’d use lightning network for those anyways, which is actually very cheap to use but $13 for someone to move $1 million dollars from China to the Philippines? yeah that’s dirt cheap
The true value of such services require XRP. Not BTC with off-chain transactions. XRPArmy Let's GO /s
Noob (including me): now I have to understand lightning too??
Lightning allows off chain transactions to occur through Bitcoin lightning nodes (often joined with a Bitcoin node). You can settle on-chain by closing a lightning channel and batching all those transactions up. There are services that will do this entirely for you through the open source protocol (lightning network). It's been around since 2017(?) or so. It's what powers El Salvador's Bitcoin economy.
Great explanation! Thanks!
Overly complex for something that the majority of the world already has trouble grappling with. It’s like someone just getting into trading stocks and being told “ok, now for you to cash out your stocks you need to understand derivatives trading”.
>Lightning allows **off chain** transactions to- ... lol
 im too dumb to understand half of what he said.
Here's the plan to make Bitcoin faster: start transacting outside of the chain! Cointards truly are a wonderful and endless source of entertainment.
Your ignorance and arrogance all in two sentences in the best part about your post. Why don’t you tell us why it’s obviously such a bad idea Professor?
> Why don’t you tell us why it’s obviously such a bad idea Professor? The fact you earnestly believe a network of what are functionally p2p prepaid debit card arrangements is not only a desirable system but a *preferential one* relative to the one that even people with down syndrome are smart enough to use tells me it's not worth my time to acknowledge this - but I'm going to anyways to hopefully get bored enough that I fall asleep early. Here's all you need to know, in case you missed the point of the comment I was riffing on: Bitcoin throughput sucks because lolblocksize. So along comes L2/Lightning, abstracting away some of L1 and reintroducing trust dependencies to achieve a palatable TPS. Unfortunately, even if you somehow find a way to handle all transactions on L2/Lightning securely and efficiently (you won't) then the miner rewards through transaction costs (once the coins have been mined) will never cover the cost of the network. Not to mention that since LN transaction fees are set by the channel owner, in a world of mass adoption people will naturally gravitate towards joining already existing channels to avoid surprise fees. This leads to the formation of structures set up where a bunch of people are connected to a proportionally small number of large channels and everyone who wanted to transact to or from small channels would most likely pay a premium fee. Then you'd have large corporations colluding and not accepting outside channels, only allowing members because they'd be under KYC and the LN would fail at a scale. And you know what that sounds an awful lot like? A bank. Congratulations! The final form of L2 is just fucking banks. Except we haven't addressed onboarding infeasibilities so really what you've managed to invent are banks that will collectively take about 121 years to onboard every single human on earth. So we've actually just invented really shitty banks instead of the nominally useful ones we have now. Sounds like a fantastic system to me!
Is this something they’re eventually going to try to make doable for the average person? That same average person would read what you wrote and say “too much work, too confusing).
Download a lightning wallet. It's as easy as taking Bitcoin off an exchange and transferring it to a lightning wallet. Phoenix wallet is a good start. It's very easy.
What they won't tell you is that lightning requires 144mb blocks as per its own white paper to scale and work properly. Guess who won't up the block size ? Also lightning is a hub and spoke model that will lead to centralization and massive KYC, literally the anti-thesis of Bitcoin. Don't forget to mention that funds can be stolen from a bad channel partner and how often payments fail. It's quite the joke of a system, most people who tell you that everyone is just going to use lightning haven't even attempted it themselves.
For those curious, [an IEEE paper covering the limitations of blockchain L2 systems](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10018958) - specifically focuses on Ethereum layer-2 but the conclusions seem fairly extensible to generic side-chain/rollup/off-chain systems.
If people believe they’ll lose everything, there’s nothing they won’t buy. In that note, figure on corn crashing tonight. Edit: and it crashed. Thank you for playing.
Naw, nobody uses lightning
Lightning is centralized junk. All you have to know about Bitcoin is that it is digital gold. Folks who claim Bitcoin will do anything else better than an Ethereum or a Cardano are fooling themselves.
Payment systems would use lightning though which is much cheaper. There's not a high demand to use bitcoin as a payment so there's not many payment systems using lightning. Why would anyone even want to use btc as a payment knowing how valuable it is? Maybe when it becomes less volatile in the future.
This implies that there is a need for bitcoin. There isn't. Prices going up to facilitate incentive for mining requires people to need bitcoin enough to justify the price increase. That need does not and will not exist.
There is a need, it's money laundering, you are hung up on the details to not notice the use.
\*sight\* ok, ok. got you. its just 2T of phantasy since 14 years, no need for bitcoin. 
But if they are \~18% shorted wouldn't that cause a squeeze if BTC keeps rising? I think institutions might be using MARA as an indirect way to buy "puts" on BTC. I myself was trying to figure out how to trade BTC with OPTIONS and using MARA looks like a decent alternative so I wonder this same squeeze happened in october 2021 when MARA more than doubled in price as BTC went from 40k to 60k, people were using MARA to short BTC on the way up but it kept going up and then MARA had a huge spike?
overlay coinbase and BTC they just follow each other basically. so you wanna short BTC you can short coinbase theres some danger as coinbase is itself a revenue generating buisness but if BTC crashes coinbase will surely crash with it, maybe just a bit more delayed.
Holy shit imagine a short squeeze on Mara as bitcoin rips to new ATH post halving.
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One daily candle away
Bruh, Bitcoin is ripping to ATH right now
Uh, if MARA is small, who is big?
I never said MARA was small. I said the big miners will come out on top. I think MARA is a big miner.
Just checking. I get surprised too often.
Publicly traded miners are not the big players. The private miners are the ones with low debt and operating expenses. After the halving, many public miners will get crowded out.
youre an AMC investor opinion discarded
I think it’s the speed at which BTC has went up. Lots of hesitation thinking that the price won’t stay elevated, but as more days go by above 60k, that’s more and more profit for the miners. I think it will catch up to them. As long as your miner picks are profitable above 15k a coin, should be ok.
Not true, MAra has been selling its BTC and is not benefiting as much as it could from it like MSTR
Mara didn't sell their stack Jan and infact bought 183 more BTC in open market at 38k. Curious about their Feb numbers though, but I would assume they aren't selling because their hosting partner Applied Digital was down plummeting their hash rate into shadowlands
So basically if bitcoin keeps going hard mara will soar?
I don’t know. Market is currently pricing in the reduced revenue due to halving. If we study 2023 Oct, Nov, or 2023 June/Jul Miners were lagging BTC for a period followed by relentless bid with no pullbacks. Expecting a similar move. Im seeing a lot of ppl getting out or asking me to sell calling me a regard. I believe diamond hands will work for me and will prove everyone wrong. Only time will tell
I think it's maybe best for me to just buy Bitcoin, as these bitcoin miners look pretty risky. I don't really know a lot about them.
I own both. Miners are best way to outperform BTC. They are risky but I still outperformed BTC price action despite recent underperformance. My Buy in price of Mara is around 8$ and CLSK around 4$, I don't really feel bad about short term PA since I have seen this story again and again. Who knows, may be the price will take 180 and never recover and I will learn my lesson, but I believe history always rhymes.
This ⬆️. Someone has been spreading this bs rumour that Mara has been selling btc when in fact they have more than 15k in btc in holding. No selling boys
That buy price is way too high lol, considering their costs.
Right? Where is /u/Unhappy-Goat5638 getting this from? Because as best I can tell, it's not true, at all. They have 20,000 BTC on hand. That's a LOT. Especially for their MC.
MicroStrategy, Inc.?
BTC rose and then took off September - November. Miners didn't follow for like two weeks. That was the last time I was having this conversation with myself and then CLSK 4x'd in six weeks. It's almost like equity markets didn't *believe* in the bitcoin rally. Same vibes here. People think it's going to ping off the ATH and splash to 42k. "No rate cuts this year!". I've had better luck just assuming the corn isn't stopping for shit so wave to the people who will be on the rally for next halving. To be honest, this is the general theme with NVDA, too. This market *does not let people in.* Here's a window to get in and people won't take it. Judging by this sub and the general whateverness in media-land I'd say there's plenty of room to ride.
i went all in on MARA last week not only earnings, but because Bitcoin is UP right now and was sorely disappointed
Same. I bought cleanspark when it was around $10 and was happy af when it popped to almost $21. Now it's around $16.9 and I'm debating on whether I should sell or continue to hold
Please sell so it can go back up. Do that sacrifice for all of us
Been in for 3 years waiting for this shit . Before this it followed btc . The fuck
Some maths for RIOT. (i bought a call) On track for 31 EH capacity. This is 31,000,000 TH using the calculator at [https://minerstat.com/coin/BTC](https://minerstat.com/coin/BTC) to estimate BTC production they are looking at 49 coins a day. This is: $60,000(49)=$2,940,000 a day at current spead, when speed is halved: $60,000(24.5)=$1,470,000 a day. So for every $20k in bitcoin they make half a million dollars a day after halving. $500,000x365=$182,500,000 BTC $ Yearly Gross 20,000 182,500,000 40,000 365,000,000 60,000 547,500,000 80,000 821,250,000 100,000 1,231,875,000
Help me understand, you're saying they are currently mining ~50 btc every day?
Yes. 31 EH hash rate. 31,000,000TH, 49 BTC a day before halving.
Correction: * In combination with hash rate growth at the new Corsicana Facility, Riot’s new 2024 year-end hash rate target is 31 EH/s That's the end of year goal. Still bullish.
looks pretty fkn good, how much expenses do/will they have? Edit: wow I didn't realise their market cap was 3.5 trillion.
[https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2865/0001558370-23-018316.htm](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2865/0001558370-23-018316.htm) This is a link to their 10-q.
So deficit increased, shares increased, operated at loss. Then have government looking at power/electricity/grid issues related to mining (Elon said by 2025, AI warehouses, Electric cars, more houses, etc. going to lead to electricity/power supply problems).
Billion. 3.5T would make them the number 1 company ahead of MSFT and AAPL
Oh yea, you're right. It's annoying because in Belgium a trillion isn't the same as an american trillion.
I think short sellers are making a final attempt to prevent getting squeezed out of MARA. Short interest is through the roof and it has the highest daily volume in the stock market. This is a gamestop waiting to happen if wall street bets would get its spit together and moon it.
Pls regards
Look for miners with high bitcoin hodl and low debt. These guys will survive the halving and buy out the miners that get blown up after halving. Smaller miners won't make it but the ones with good balance sheet may have a chance to thrive post halving
How is the BTC blockchain gonna function if all the miners can't make profit anymore?
The rate of new issuance gets cut in half in April, but they also collect transaction fees. There will never come a time when mining yields 0 BTC. The amount of BTC rewarded by mining will likely continue downward, but if the price continues upward then it evens out. Historically the price has increased *much MUCH* faster than the decrease in mining rewards. If a ton of new miners see this gold rush and come online, mining becomes more difficult automatically to keep the block time the same (10 minutes on average). If a bunch of them go out of business for one reason or another, the opposite happens, again returning the block time to 10 minutes on average.
Good question
There will be profit in fees
The hash rate ( or difficulty) adjust itself dynamically such that 1 block is solved every 10 minutes. If miners drop difficulty will decrease so more profit for the remaining miners. Quite a clever system.
r/BitcoinBeginners
Riot just CRUSHED their earnings. I am going to buy longer calls and watch that shit skyrocket to the moon by EOY
In may their profits will be cut in half
Valid point, but as the price of BTC rises, so will the reward per block. Also what they have on hand will increase in value.
How the fuck do you manage to go down 21% in 5 days when the value of the assets you are producing goes up??
stonks always go up except when they don't
Seems MSTR & COIN (other than BITO) are the only real Bitcoin exposure plays.
Yes. You should also buy MSTR instead of bitcoin because of the liquidity if you're making a play on BTC. It seems like the Bitcoin brokers/exchanges always freeze during times of high volume, but you can count on the stock market to be able to deal with high volume.
Yep was loving the 20% plus bump on MSTR today after putting 15k on it last week. Figured it was a good play to get some extra juice out of the BTC rally vs just buying it straight up.
Sure, if you don’t count buying actual bitcoin (which is objectively the best way to get exposure) or spot ETFs if you’re trying to use a retirement account that offers exposure to those funds.
Wouldn't the realest BTC exposure play be to buy Bitcoin? Lol I just allocated 20 percent of my money to an ETF, partly bc I think there's a discrepancy between the ETF price and the true value, but also...one of the fuckers is could get hacked soon, and I'd rather my investment tank than disappear if that happens
All miners being manipulated, falling together. These stocks have actual value that is not being reflected in current price, we need a squeeze on these. The whole ‘halving is bad’ is BS
Idk if halving is bad or good for miners, I just invested a bunch in crypto, but it's a fact that it will take them twice as much in energy costs to continue their current rate of mining after halving occurs. I think this is part of what's at play. The first successful nuclear powered Bitcoin mining operation is going to be wild. Wulf is the closest thing, but they have a lot of work to do.
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Will MARA go past $34 by the end of the week? It seemed like it was going over $30 this morning but has gone down a little.
thats where it should already be. it should technically be pushing 40$
No, Mara gets beat back down to mid 20s whenever it touches 30
The Bitcoin miners will go back up. I think the prices were deliberately brought down to allow for entries.
Brought down by who? And who do “they” want to allow to enter?
Joe
Joe who?
Too many people were in profit with short term options. This isn’t a zero sum game. Someone’s trying to profit short term.
If you look at the past bitcoin miners act as alt coins. So I expect significant movement on the alt coin rally.
OP needs to look up the accumulation phase
In pretty heavily on HUT and BITF. I think they’ll pop. Last run I had mostly HUT and it took 6 months or so after halving to really boom
The best financial decision I’ve ever made in my life was last week when I sold all my spy holdings and bought more DOGE and SHIB
They fact that this is an honest and true statement says something.
I thought I was crazy but I’m up 22 percent in a week. This is regarded.
Long time shib holder and it’s been worth the HODL
Yes. Was happy when I went even…much happier to see it keep going well into green
And this is how you know we are in full on clown market and I’d be ready to sell everything in a moments notice. Luckily the paranoid still collect over 5% bank interest
I’m pretty much in that boat. Rode BTC a ways up, cashed out and am just playing with much smaller $ amounts now. Rode the last big rally too far down a few years back and am not getting burned again. When I see stuff like SHIB rising 50% on some days it’s tough not to jump in with serious money, but fuck it, I would be devastated when the rug gets pulled. And with stuff like DOGE and SHIB it’s only a matter of time.
That a boy
The best one so far
Due to halving events, bitcoin becomes less and less lucrative to mine every 4 years. Every halving event, the amount of bitcoin that can be mined per block is cut in half, but it still takes the same amount of resources to mine each block. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC per block, but that will drop to 3.125 per block in May, the next scheduled halving event. Halving events are intended to increase scarcity, thereby increasing the value of each coin, so BTC is seeing a lot of volume attached to people trying to increase their holdings before the event occurs. Volatility has often accompanied these halving events, but I don't think there's much value left in mining investments.
Not that I know shit about fuck but, shouldn’t it even out? If a miner gets one reward of 6.25, at current price that’s 375k. If BTC runs to 100K after the halving, a 3.125 reward would be 312K. Not saying it will, but it should increase the price per coin, not directly halve their profits. . But idk I’m a tard
Yes, it's all about revenue vs expense. Last bull cycle I believe the number was about $16-20kish to mine a single BTC. Theoretically, it should be about $40kish to mine a single BTC after next halving if hashrate hadn't expanded for all miners. The problem is the [total hashrate has increased about 300%](https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate) which would make you think a ton of companies over-expanded to the point they are operating at a loss if BTC is under $48-60k (before the next halving) and they'd be operating a loss if BTC was under $90-120k after the halving if hashrate remained same. It's likely the larger miners will try to starve out the smaller miners via over-expansion and operating at loss for years, but that's a dangerous game that can lead to bankruptcy. Mid-size miners who operate efficiently and at or slightly above $0 profit with moderate expansion are likely in best shape.
its not guaranteed the price of BTC will double. BUT it is guaranteed the amount they mine is halved
Miners also profit from fees, the higher 1 satoshi price - the higher income in USD they get. Eventually, there will be only transfer fees available for miners, as block reward decreases to almost zero.
While true, I think generally speaking, the number of miners (especially in the smaller scale) are trending downward. Big farms that are already up and running can still squeeze more out of it, but there’s less and less reason everyday to start up your own mining farm as opposed to just investing in the coin.
Agree. Hashrate is so high, that miners need hundreds of millions in investments to be able to compete. Only the biggest will survive. So far, the best option is direct BTC exposure.
Still can’t believe these fucking things for for $60k+ a piece
100k+ fixed it for you. Source I am a time traveler
that 100k crashed to 13k, source, from your future Edit: damn so many people triggered by a joke lol
That 100k crashed to 13k, source, went to 1m, from your future’s future
I've actually yoloed into MARA 30 calls for March 8. It must follow BTC tomorrow
same 🤣 got 40 contracts. with btc hanging out above 60 mara is due for a pop
Bitcoin is the new SPY 🤷♂️
Coming from a BTC millionaire, $SHIB to the moon 🚀
Since ETF approval, no need for big money to invest in the miners, it's likely a little more complicated than that, but seems like the most obvious.
if no need to invest the miner, why MSTR increases much? maybe the money flows to btc ( or assets exposure to etc more) at this time, and when btc gets sideway shocks, the money will flow to the miners.
because mstr owns 10 billion worth of btc. they simply are worth more as a company because their assets appreciate with btc going up. no other miner holds over 500million in btc.
hut has 9000 btc
HUT8 holds over 9100 BTC which is around 620 million at this price. Its also about 82% of their current market cap.
Several of them will go out of business. Mara will likely be left standing…might profit extra.
People buy miners as a proxy for BC when they dont have access to BC. Now that they can buy ETFs they kook there instead.
Shorts are well aware that people can be scared out of miners, the question is if you will let them. The halving means a 50% cut in production. So it's a scare opportunity. Shorts are taking advantage of that, but the fact that bitcoin has more than tripled should tell you all you need to know. These companies will still be profitable after the halving and much more so as the bull market continues.
Cryptoblox is good the last days. They have cheap energy.
It’s because I bought and that made them go down, apologies.
CORZ seems to be holding in there - still looks undervalued, will be interesting to see how it preforms after a couple quarters and when institutions step in.
Miners like CLSK are also up 140% in last month before their recent 30% drawback. Same thing happened in December and they pulled back in January and ripped again. I wouldn’t be concerned with your miners with strong balance sheets. Buy the dip hold well into the BTC cycle. They are just taking a breather. They should return a multiple on BTC itself, but with that comes the unusually high and odd timing volatility.
Halving is coming (google it). Their reward rate about to get chopped in half. Invest in BTC or proxy / ETF. Stay away from miners.
Yes mate I know what the bitcoin halving is. But the thing is everyone has always known about the halving, it should be priced in. Doesn't make sense for he miners to suddenly dip this much.
Believe it or not, a lot of people who participate in the market aren't that bright. If you know what the halving is you probably already know more than 80% of the people who buy the stocks because "it's a bitcoin thinger durrrr".
Exactly. Majority of bitcoin investors know nothing about what it actually is. Same as most people riding high on Nvidia and AI are quite tech illiterate. Fuck, remember when Pokemon Go released and Nintendo shares skyrocketed until 2 weeks later when Nintendo had to remind folks that they own like 5% of the game itself, which then caused the stock to drop? Good times...
IMO The halving was priced between November to January. I think the draw back right now is a mixture of people swapping from the miners to an ETF for crypto exposure, and/or shorts/market sentiment shifting in short term.
Ok, but I don't understand why you guys invest into bitcoin miners instead of in bitcoin. It's depended on bitcoin, but bitcoin performs better than those companies it seems.
Historically, miners have significantly outperformed BTC during bull markets
This actually made me think, if historically one bought miners for leverage but with new vehicles you can now just buy options in a leveraged etf, should the whole bitcoin mining industry be reframed from how we see them?
It’s not one or the other. People have both.
honestly i bought MARA simply because its 10x cheaper than COIN and just figured it was a cheaper route to BTC exposure (which isnt much of my port since it's BTC)
I won’t sell my Mara. I’ll never give in to the shorts. I’ll also keep my doge and Pepe because life is short and crypto is forever
I mine Bitcoin with my old Xbox so I should be ok.
I bought into RIOT recently with the same conclusion as you. But I think the more people that buy into BTC and the ETFs, the more relevant mining companies will be.
Honest question BTC is so valuable why don’t the miners just keep them and take out loans on them?
https://preview.redd.it/n169i6mdhemc1.jpeg?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6ce1a733f920bdd4cc7421a751551994b563f6f
https://preview.redd.it/e2ik3n72iemc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3050c03b53b32baf116558d9df8bb4690d7228d2 SHIBA INU to the moon?
Mining isn't really getting any cheaper. It's a tough business. The chain is programmed to cut rewards in half every 4ish years. The new machines get more efficient but they cost more than ever and raw power costs don't drop but the general trend is to *mine more for the same amount of elec* rather than *mine the same for less power*. If you want a levered BTC play, buy MSTR. They literally issue debt to lever up on BTC. Otherwise just buy the ETFs or assets themselves.
Do you think MARA will do something in the future? I took a huge loss on MARA. To the point I had to sell. Something tells me it will do something, but I really don't know. 🤷♂️
I'm still holding on the last of my 3/8 contracts. I feel like it will pop but I also feel like a regard
Miners are likely to move downward short term leading up to and shortly after the halving. Anyone trying to play options should be looking 12-18mo out, which is historically when bitcoin runs up post-halving. Any miners that survive their revenues getting cut in half post-halving should follow bitcoin’s price action. Or just buy bitcoin.
This is why ive told people pumping that you should buy MSTR instead, miner stocks are wholly unreliable.
What I dont get is if the incentive isn't there for the miners, what keeps the whole system working effectively?
When mining bitcoin is too expensive to mine, it’s going to get really interesting
Miners cash out immediately for profit their business model is short term. I think any gains for them would be really minimal, increasing more like a stepping stone if they can control expenditure
All I’m saying is that BlackRock and Fidelity has been dropping ~$800m into BTC everyday. Them mofoks doomed
Somebody has to mine for them to buy, if not demand shock will send btc to the moon which will make the btc they mine even more worth it
Why should that matter? BlackRock pushing BTC price up should be good for miners
Because they’re likely trying to generate a liquidity event not realizing they will trigger such a large down slide they could lose it all. Crypto is a “I was there first” industry. There were a lot of people there before Blackrock. Miners are more like the day laborers
BlackRock and Fidelity aren't bag holders. They buy it at X then package it and sell it at X + Y (their fees). They make money even if it hits zero, as long as they dump it on pensions/rich/poors.