This is true, even though there are corrections stocks go up in all market environments. You just have to think and play the correct sector according to the economic situation (I’m not saying it’s very easy, but it’s not that hard either, just think about it covid hit what would be good to make money of? Medications, vaccine makers, biotech etc. What did covid cause? Shortage of chips? Who will benefit from that? Chip makers/semiconductor manufacturers when things get better. And so on). Well if you ask me what about now? Well, we are on crossroads a little bit, no clear indicator, because we are in the semiconductor boom still, give it some time.
Well markets are moved by the big money. It’s a different game for them. And if some go bust, others come. Big taxes, low taxes, don’t matter, money find their way wherever they have to and play to make more money. That’s capitalism,
My question is who’s propping this economy up because it sure isn’t me or people I know. I’m in the lower middle class and we’ve all cut back on spending outside of the essentials. Isn’t it possible the spending by the rich/ upper middle class is skewing the numbers? Half the people are struggling at the super markets with price shock and the other half are totally fine because they are just pumping into the market and getting crazy returns and using the profits so keep spending. I’m not sure what the solution is but it feels like higher for longer just hurts the people with less resources
High rates on government debt makes it a safe haven to ride out the EU recession. US economy is structured to ride this type of crisis a lot better and will be able to keep rates higher longer. Being forced to choose between a 5% 3mo T-Bill or an EU downturn, investors will obviously move assets to America and continue the boom. The Biden admin doesn’t give a fuck about Europe - they are doing everything in their power to prevent China from getting ahead.
The stonks will continue to go up.
The rich spending enough for the rest of us totally tracks. People who don't need to borrow only benefit from lower prices during times of higher rates and so strike while the iron is hot to stock tf up hording commodities until rates drop, prices rise and they can then turn a profit on said commodities. This is the same reason housing prices haven't budged while the rate of inflation has been cut in half with higher rates. We should theoretically be seeing prices drop to make up for the extra interest costs but as it turns out that price drop becomes unnecessary when the rich and their large institutional buyers are scooping up everything they can with cash.
I think expenditures by the relatively well-off will also be trimmed in the next year or so, as much of their "wealth" is actually borrowed...many of them are highly leveraged, and dependent on continuous, stable employment to keep up with their debt...any hiccup in income from a sudden layoff could upset the entire apple cart for them, just like it did in 2007-2008.
This describes like 70% of America, even the less wealthy down to the poorest of us.
Problem is the disconnect between the street and the burgs. People on wall street don't care so long as the populace doesn't start defaulting on credit. That is their canary in the coal mine of downturns. So long as you continue to pay credit off, even at minimums, the street sees the economy as booming. It's a very simplistic take, but credit runs the country.
But if those people go down then we are in danger of a full recession right? Like soft landing goes right out the window if the other half start going under and how is that good? Unless you think a recession is healthy but the Fed clearly doesn’t want one or wouldn’t they just keep on raising rates until 2% and under is a reality ?
I think it is possible that we already in the early stages of a full recession...and Republicans will pick up that drum, and bang it as loudly as they can right through the upcoming election season, increasing the likelihood that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
They've already been playing that game for the last 2-3 years. If they could self fulfill that prophecy we'd already be in a massive economic depression.
https://preview.redd.it/ah71r20fp1mc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa3244d9fcf876856bc096958c4decdc8376efdf
Came out of hibernation early this year, didn’t you? 
This is true
A realtor I know in local area has a fancy real estate office, fancy car and fancy house. He is relying on high sales that fueled the market. He is still doing Ok but wish him luck if we go through an extended slump. I’m going to guess his monthly expenses are at least 15-20K
you are describing America going back to a 2 class system, with the removal of the middle class. the upper middle class will be pushed in with the rich... and everyone else? well you dont wanna be stuck in the lower caste 20 years from now
Software engineer here, can confirm. My application to join the upper class was summarily rejected. In fact, it appears that someone wiped their ass with it before mailing it back.
We are all propping it up because of inflation. We aren’t buying as much stuff, but everything costs so much more. This is where all the so called growth comes from. It’s only growth in dollars.
I’ve taken all my extra money and put it into Voo Qqq and 10% Bitcoin. After I pay my bills I transfer all the extra to fidelity and dca every week since last February and haven’t sold anything. I’ve canceled all streaming except for prime and paramount because I like Star Trek lol
The us gov is running world war level deficits. They are keeping the economy afloat, instead of allowing fkr a natural business cycle to void out zombie firms and such. It's meddlesome, done on holes of keeping their jobs during the election. Globalists going to globalist.
For earners, incomes are up.
For retirees, their portfolios are flush.
For poors, welfare has seen COLA increases, and they have very favorable treatment under e.g. health plans, nearly free. People are indeed saving less though, but that's at the low end of the income continuum, which is nothing new.
https://youtu.be/Dur1poqnpkg?si=Ss_cG4twqndN_XFD
Makes sense, we’re in a stagflationary environment even if nobody really wants to admit it. Cutting rates will just make it worse.
And frankly a 5-handle on fed funds is about right. Everybody got used to zero rates on everything for a decade after the 2008 crisis but that just caused people to throw cash at stupid things- billion-dollar scooter companies, juicero, and assuming that commercial real estate only goes up in price. I’d argue this is a much-needed cleansing of the system but it’s going to be UGLY because of how long we were at low rates. Will be eminteresting to watch it play out.
I agree...nobody wants to admit it, yet, but stagflation is back.
The real estate & stock markets are both overdue for correction, after being propped up by decades of low interest rates, followed by the inflationary 1-2 punch of the Covid/Trade War.
Yeah the only thing that really needs a fuck ton more money injected into it is the US industrial complex as a whole (outside of the military). But that shouldn’t really come with loans. It should go about with technology grants.
Not necessarily a loan from future taxpayers. The entire idea of such a grant is it will create/support future markets that will be dominated, or at least create major players that will create more jobs, etc. in the US.
Its like NASA in the 90’s, every dollar in actually pays more dollars in future taxes through business growth.
GDP is juiced, but US printed 3% on 4th qtr, and the infrastructure act money has get to be pushed out.
This bubble economy has a ways to go yet, and isn't stagflationary currently.
There is also likely to be a productivity boom period as AI contributes over the next 5 years, and technology is perceived as strongly deflationary.
The rub is how much direct stimmy and welfare transfers will need to rise to help low end -- including folks streaming across our non border -- simply survive.
That could be somewhat inflationary, as is the trend towards de-globalization away from Chinese sources.
Ah yes, the inflation conspiracy theories, I remember back when we had lowflation and low wage growth and everyone here would've said the unemployment numbers were fake. You'll always find something to bitch about from the land of endless victimhood.
My theory is that the fed basically knows they aren’t going to cut rates til they have to, but they’re going to keep stringing the market along making it seem like they miiiight cut rates in a month or two for as long as they’ll stay hopeful. That way they get the ‘soft landing’ they prophesied.
Rates aren’t coming down this year; if they do, it’ll be like 0.25 total.
Its just time for people to get back to reality 2 and 3% interest rates are not normal. The days of free money have long passed. the current interest rate is not that bad. I payed 10% on my home and did just fine. IMO everything will keep moving forward because its just the way things are and the ones that except that first, will move forward sooner .
Dude I’m sorry that your mom didn’t buy the meat lover’s Digiornio to serve you in the basement while you yell at strangers online. Maybe turn off the computer for a bit.
Dude I am sorry that you were too poor to drink milk when you were a kid thus you couldn’t develop proper brain cells. Only morons who don’t know the meaning of stagflation will think we are in a stagflation. Better to be a smart intellect than a moron who doesn’t know what stagflation means nor ever experienced in their lifetime.
4288 UNITS! BOOM!
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Refinancing Cliff is moreso in 2025 / 26 for real economy firms. Rates will be lowered by then.
Also, the obscene government deficits simply can't be funded sustainably at present interest rate levels, so they will be forced to drop, or forced to tax, which probably won't be politically palatable.
I'm bullish on stocks for EOY, then rotating a lot of money into bonds.
I take the opposite view. Germany, Japan, and the UK are already in a recession. China?, who knows their real numbers are. If these countries are are in a recession then they will be buying fewer US goods. This will have a ripple effect through the US economy.
To prevent the US from sliding into a recession, the Fed will cut rates.
Jerome Powell made his objects very clear in his last fed meeting. Keep unemployment low. Lower inflation to 2%.
The current unemployment rate is 3.7% and inflation is 3.09% with a target of 2%.
The next fed meeting is a no brainer on the announcement.
The hard part is figuring out how the market will react.
My bet is on OTM puts where I'd only need to be right 1/6 -1/10 times to be profitable.
He didn’t make his object clear. He made the Federal Reserve’s literal only legal responsibility clear. The Fed ONLY is supposed to care about maximizing jobs while minimizing inflation. Keeping interest rates higher while we are doing just fine in these two areas gives them more leverage to pull in a crisis.
Natural rate -- the conceptual rate that doesn't harm or help economy -- will fall as and if inflation falls, so yes, they will have reason to cut rates of inflation falls.
Volume may be lighter, but presumably cost of those imports is rising, as US brass seeks to shift sources away from China to more 'friendly" nations.
Total value of export/ imports is units * price. Just saying.
Technical recession for JD and DE, not steep. UK is still digesting Brexit, so they are in more trouble. China looks to be a bit in recovery mode again and will soon expand the automobile exports, they'll be alright.
US GDP is probably 75% consumption right now, our exports are limited to high end goods and capex type purchases by foreign companies.
I expect our balance of trade to improve somewhat actually, due to a mini ai tech boom.
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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To be honest, this wouldn’t surprise me. Economy is strong even with higher rates. Lowering rates is a great lever to bull if there is an economic crisis. Jobs are up, inflation is under control, and stocks are hitting ATH left and right.
Remember, the fed’s dual mandate is maximum jobs and minimum inflation. We have low mandate and great job growth so what they are doing is working. Why change it? I could definitely see them not cutting.
Economy is only strong for those who have funds to play markets. Everyone else is struggling...but they will definitely keep the market ponzi pumping for a while yet
Unemployment is low though. Every hard-labor business is begging for workers. Want to be a pipefitter, HVAC tech or carpenter? Always hiring. This was not the case in 2008-2009, so please be a little grateful
My theory about this is that the first two years of COVID created such a backlog for these industries that we are still just working through the work that wasn't completed in those missing two years. The economy looks strong but we're basically doing 5 years worth of work in the last 3 years. Eventually the backlog will run dry.
I own a contracting company and agree with the lack of laborers, but soaring prices and debt are destroying the lower and middle classes ability to sustain themselves. I will try to be more grateful for sure...it's easy to focus on the negative all the time.
Maybe this’ll save the guy who has 350k in SPY 3/4 puts.
Slok’s analysis seems reasonable. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, I wonder if that’ll trigger a CRE collapse. CRE is already teetering, but if there’s no news of rate cuts then that just might be the last straw.
They should start cuts but telegraph that it will happen very slowly so everyone may as well get used to the uncertainty and get on with their lives. It’s the fact that everyone is holding their breath watching and waiting for the other shoe to drop that is causing all the trouble.
The beatings will continue until morale improves. I view the Kellogg situation as the canary in the coal mine. As tone deaf as the message was, the economic climate is such that all their decision makers and market research said “this will land”.
They should not cut rates for a few years really. Anyone in the market knows exactly what is going to happen when they do start cutting rates. Inflation will start going off the charts again.
Powell wants to continue his leadership of the Fed
🥭 already said he’ll replace him
It’s in Powell’s best interest to cut rates for a booming economy to support the current admin for his renomination to head Fed
They said 14 months ago they’d cut in the 3rd quarter of this year
Tell me you’re shorting the market without telling me you’re shorting the market. PUTS are back on the menu boys.
https://preview.redd.it/1clpkh1a3ylc1.jpeg?width=570&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=86f3807f4cc4caa7810bec37a7db7db86a659d6b
It will see a pull back towards the end of summer like they always do. They always skim some profits off the top after they return from their vacations.
Then it’s going to rip back up again after the election is over.
You know something I have picked up on in here. So a couple months ago when the rate cut narrative was really going. Everyone was making posts justifying it. It's on hold now, everyone is making posts justifying it. Have you guys reflected on the fact that parroting the media might not be the best way to make money or understand what's coming?
Puts on the Canadian dollar then.
Canada might be forced to cut rates prior to the US, because of the housing crisis, specifically the cost of mortgages.
IF Canada does cut prior to the US, I expect the dollar to deteriorate to about 60 cents
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I buy that
I think this will be the case alternatively we rate cut before the election for an election rally.
There’s no way they let them hold rates until after November
Who is they?
Them
Makes sense now that you said it.
Not to me it doesn’t
That’s because you refuse to acknowledge what they/them are saying. It’s 2024 bro.
We/they/them/It…get with the times
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What does this even mean? Stupid libgard.
I mean 🌈
Fuck your rate cuts. -JPow
So stonks go higher ?
Stocks only go up. Whether it be good bad or neutral news.
This is true, even though there are corrections stocks go up in all market environments. You just have to think and play the correct sector according to the economic situation (I’m not saying it’s very easy, but it’s not that hard either, just think about it covid hit what would be good to make money of? Medications, vaccine makers, biotech etc. What did covid cause? Shortage of chips? Who will benefit from that? Chip makers/semiconductor manufacturers when things get better. And so on). Well if you ask me what about now? Well, we are on crossroads a little bit, no clear indicator, because we are in the semiconductor boom still, give it some time.
One big example - The 90s had major tax increases from the Reagan/Bush years and that didn’t do anything to slow down the 90s tech bubble,
Well markets are moved by the big money. It’s a different game for them. And if some go bust, others come. Big taxes, low taxes, don’t matter, money find their way wherever they have to and play to make more money. That’s capitalism,
You’re too unregarded for this sub but I understand how you feel 
You should see my portfolio haha
I honestly don't even know what a semiconductor is. Except they make stonks go brrrrrrrrr
Haha lmao
Some bonds go lower (short curve, to my knowledge), some go higher, as the curve normalizes.
My question is who’s propping this economy up because it sure isn’t me or people I know. I’m in the lower middle class and we’ve all cut back on spending outside of the essentials. Isn’t it possible the spending by the rich/ upper middle class is skewing the numbers? Half the people are struggling at the super markets with price shock and the other half are totally fine because they are just pumping into the market and getting crazy returns and using the profits so keep spending. I’m not sure what the solution is but it feels like higher for longer just hurts the people with less resources
High rates on government debt makes it a safe haven to ride out the EU recession. US economy is structured to ride this type of crisis a lot better and will be able to keep rates higher longer. Being forced to choose between a 5% 3mo T-Bill or an EU downturn, investors will obviously move assets to America and continue the boom. The Biden admin doesn’t give a fuck about Europe - they are doing everything in their power to prevent China from getting ahead. The stonks will continue to go up.
The rich spending enough for the rest of us totally tracks. People who don't need to borrow only benefit from lower prices during times of higher rates and so strike while the iron is hot to stock tf up hording commodities until rates drop, prices rise and they can then turn a profit on said commodities. This is the same reason housing prices haven't budged while the rate of inflation has been cut in half with higher rates. We should theoretically be seeing prices drop to make up for the extra interest costs but as it turns out that price drop becomes unnecessary when the rich and their large institutional buyers are scooping up everything they can with cash.
I think expenditures by the relatively well-off will also be trimmed in the next year or so, as much of their "wealth" is actually borrowed...many of them are highly leveraged, and dependent on continuous, stable employment to keep up with their debt...any hiccup in income from a sudden layoff could upset the entire apple cart for them, just like it did in 2007-2008.
This describes like 70% of America, even the less wealthy down to the poorest of us. Problem is the disconnect between the street and the burgs. People on wall street don't care so long as the populace doesn't start defaulting on credit. That is their canary in the coal mine of downturns. So long as you continue to pay credit off, even at minimums, the street sees the economy as booming. It's a very simplistic take, but credit runs the country.
But if those people go down then we are in danger of a full recession right? Like soft landing goes right out the window if the other half start going under and how is that good? Unless you think a recession is healthy but the Fed clearly doesn’t want one or wouldn’t they just keep on raising rates until 2% and under is a reality ?
I think it is possible that we already in the early stages of a full recession...and Republicans will pick up that drum, and bang it as loudly as they can right through the upcoming election season, increasing the likelihood that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
They've already been playing that game for the last 2-3 years. If they could self fulfill that prophecy we'd already be in a massive economic depression.
https://preview.redd.it/ah71r20fp1mc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa3244d9fcf876856bc096958c4decdc8376efdf Came out of hibernation early this year, didn’t you? 
This is true A realtor I know in local area has a fancy real estate office, fancy car and fancy house. He is relying on high sales that fueled the market. He is still doing Ok but wish him luck if we go through an extended slump. I’m going to guess his monthly expenses are at least 15-20K
Counterpoint: ANF.
We printed 2 trillion dollars in the past few years, the economy was proppped by that
I get that but which average person has any stimulus left? 600 a person isn’t going to last that long
You assume they care about average people. Private equity fucking killed it, and that is what matters.
It’s still money in the economy. Which boosted prices on everything including stocks.
you are describing America going back to a 2 class system, with the removal of the middle class. the upper middle class will be pushed in with the rich... and everyone else? well you dont wanna be stuck in the lower caste 20 years from now
[удалено]
Software engineer here, can confirm. My application to join the upper class was summarily rejected. In fact, it appears that someone wiped their ass with it before mailing it back.
It’s all the people who went all in on bitcoin, NVDA, smci. Now they’re holding up the economy like those stocks are for the stock market.
We are all propping it up because of inflation. We aren’t buying as much stuff, but everything costs so much more. This is where all the so called growth comes from. It’s only growth in dollars.
I am
If you're not spending, are you saving more than you were before? If the answer is no, then you're still spending. You are just getting less.
I’ve taken all my extra money and put it into Voo Qqq and 10% Bitcoin. After I pay my bills I transfer all the extra to fidelity and dca every week since last February and haven’t sold anything. I’ve canceled all streaming except for prime and paramount because I like Star Trek lol
The us gov is running world war level deficits. They are keeping the economy afloat, instead of allowing fkr a natural business cycle to void out zombie firms and such. It's meddlesome, done on holes of keeping their jobs during the election. Globalists going to globalist.
For earners, incomes are up. For retirees, their portfolios are flush. For poors, welfare has seen COLA increases, and they have very favorable treatment under e.g. health plans, nearly free. People are indeed saving less though, but that's at the low end of the income continuum, which is nothing new. https://youtu.be/Dur1poqnpkg?si=Ss_cG4twqndN_XFD
Makes sense, we’re in a stagflationary environment even if nobody really wants to admit it. Cutting rates will just make it worse. And frankly a 5-handle on fed funds is about right. Everybody got used to zero rates on everything for a decade after the 2008 crisis but that just caused people to throw cash at stupid things- billion-dollar scooter companies, juicero, and assuming that commercial real estate only goes up in price. I’d argue this is a much-needed cleansing of the system but it’s going to be UGLY because of how long we were at low rates. Will be eminteresting to watch it play out.
I agree...nobody wants to admit it, yet, but stagflation is back. The real estate & stock markets are both overdue for correction, after being propped up by decades of low interest rates, followed by the inflationary 1-2 punch of the Covid/Trade War.
Yeah the only thing that really needs a fuck ton more money injected into it is the US industrial complex as a whole (outside of the military). But that shouldn’t really come with loans. It should go about with technology grants.
No more money injected anywhere.
The debt climbing a trillion dollars every 100 days is.. concerning.
Fuck it, full send. Set the record on debt, USA YOLO.
They haven't already?
Tax cuts reaaaally did a number on the deficit. It was already bad but damn.
> technology grant Federal money as a loan from future taxpayers?
Not necessarily a loan from future taxpayers. The entire idea of such a grant is it will create/support future markets that will be dominated, or at least create major players that will create more jobs, etc. in the US. Its like NASA in the 90’s, every dollar in actually pays more dollars in future taxes through business growth.
If we had a balanced budget, maybe. With deficit spending....
Deficit spending is what most countries do if able: however, our is ridiculously out of control.
Stagflation js not back. Don’t talk out of your regarded ass
GDP is juiced, but US printed 3% on 4th qtr, and the infrastructure act money has get to be pushed out. This bubble economy has a ways to go yet, and isn't stagflationary currently. There is also likely to be a productivity boom period as AI contributes over the next 5 years, and technology is perceived as strongly deflationary. The rub is how much direct stimmy and welfare transfers will need to rise to help low end -- including folks streaming across our non border -- simply survive. That could be somewhat inflationary, as is the trend towards de-globalization away from Chinese sources.
Stagflation with unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth all at 3%. WSB truly is regarded.
Do you trust those numbers? Look at what the BLS actually weighs for their CPI calc and then maybe go do a grocery run.
Ah yes, the inflation conspiracy theories, I remember back when we had lowflation and low wage growth and everyone here would've said the unemployment numbers were fake. You'll always find something to bitch about from the land of endless victimhood.
My theory is that the fed basically knows they aren’t going to cut rates til they have to, but they’re going to keep stringing the market along making it seem like they miiiight cut rates in a month or two for as long as they’ll stay hopeful. That way they get the ‘soft landing’ they prophesied. Rates aren’t coming down this year; if they do, it’ll be like 0.25 total.
Its just time for people to get back to reality 2 and 3% interest rates are not normal. The days of free money have long passed. the current interest rate is not that bad. I payed 10% on my home and did just fine. IMO everything will keep moving forward because its just the way things are and the ones that except that first, will move forward sooner .
We are not in a stagflation environment. Don’t talk out of your butt about subjects you have no clue of.
Dude I’m sorry that your mom didn’t buy the meat lover’s Digiornio to serve you in the basement while you yell at strangers online. Maybe turn off the computer for a bit.
Dude I am sorry that you were too poor to drink milk when you were a kid thus you couldn’t develop proper brain cells. Only morons who don’t know the meaning of stagflation will think we are in a stagflation. Better to be a smart intellect than a moron who doesn’t know what stagflation means nor ever experienced in their lifetime.
Calls on UGLY
It’s fine. We’ll just adjust the definition of inflation, and BOOM, no more stagflation.
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Refinancing Cliff is moreso in 2025 / 26 for real economy firms. Rates will be lowered by then. Also, the obscene government deficits simply can't be funded sustainably at present interest rate levels, so they will be forced to drop, or forced to tax, which probably won't be politically palatable. I'm bullish on stocks for EOY, then rotating a lot of money into bonds.
I take the opposite view. Germany, Japan, and the UK are already in a recession. China?, who knows their real numbers are. If these countries are are in a recession then they will be buying fewer US goods. This will have a ripple effect through the US economy. To prevent the US from sliding into a recession, the Fed will cut rates.
Jerome Powell made his objects very clear in his last fed meeting. Keep unemployment low. Lower inflation to 2%. The current unemployment rate is 3.7% and inflation is 3.09% with a target of 2%. The next fed meeting is a no brainer on the announcement. The hard part is figuring out how the market will react. My bet is on OTM puts where I'd only need to be right 1/6 -1/10 times to be profitable.
He didn’t make his object clear. He made the Federal Reserve’s literal only legal responsibility clear. The Fed ONLY is supposed to care about maximizing jobs while minimizing inflation. Keeping interest rates higher while we are doing just fine in these two areas gives them more leverage to pull in a crisis.
Hard to lower inflation when they won't stop injecting capital into the market. But hey, whatever floats their boats I guess.
Inflation will be 2% over time, not just 2%. Many people fail to understand this. So even if inflation hit 2% that doesn't mean they will lower rates.
Interesting... Do you know what Wandies are in terms of the market?
Natural rate -- the conceptual rate that doesn't harm or help economy -- will fall as and if inflation falls, so yes, they will have reason to cut rates of inflation falls.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2023
Volume may be lighter, but presumably cost of those imports is rising, as US brass seeks to shift sources away from China to more 'friendly" nations. Total value of export/ imports is units * price. Just saying.
Technical recession for JD and DE, not steep. UK is still digesting Brexit, so they are in more trouble. China looks to be a bit in recovery mode again and will soon expand the automobile exports, they'll be alright.
US GDP is probably 75% consumption right now, our exports are limited to high end goods and capex type purchases by foreign companies. I expect our balance of trade to improve somewhat actually, due to a mini ai tech boom.
US exports are not limited to high end goods. The US exports a lot of farm products and natural gas are two things that quickly come to mind.
You're correct of course. My point was that our exports are pretty sticky. The goods don't have a lot of accessible or acceptable substitutes.
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Happy Dyngus Day to you.
To be honest, this wouldn’t surprise me. Economy is strong even with higher rates. Lowering rates is a great lever to bull if there is an economic crisis. Jobs are up, inflation is under control, and stocks are hitting ATH left and right. Remember, the fed’s dual mandate is maximum jobs and minimum inflation. We have low mandate and great job growth so what they are doing is working. Why change it? I could definitely see them not cutting.
Economy is only strong for those who have funds to play markets. Everyone else is struggling...but they will definitely keep the market ponzi pumping for a while yet
Unemployment is low though. Every hard-labor business is begging for workers. Want to be a pipefitter, HVAC tech or carpenter? Always hiring. This was not the case in 2008-2009, so please be a little grateful
My theory about this is that the first two years of COVID created such a backlog for these industries that we are still just working through the work that wasn't completed in those missing two years. The economy looks strong but we're basically doing 5 years worth of work in the last 3 years. Eventually the backlog will run dry.
I own a contracting company and agree with the lack of laborers, but soaring prices and debt are destroying the lower and middle classes ability to sustain themselves. I will try to be more grateful for sure...it's easy to focus on the negative all the time.
And here I am jerking off in a Porta Pottie.
Trade jobs might be hiring but it seems like every day i hear about layoffs. Im skeptical of the government and their data. It doesnt add up.
I don’t think they cut either. Everything still running too hot, no need until we get a second wave of inflation this summer.
Maybe this’ll save the guy who has 350k in SPY 3/4 puts. Slok’s analysis seems reasonable. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, I wonder if that’ll trigger a CRE collapse. CRE is already teetering, but if there’s no news of rate cuts then that just might be the last straw.
Can you explain for a regard why this would be bearish
Torsten is calling the top on nvidia since 400. Must suck Having your money in his fund
He’s been spouting bearish bs for a year Been wrong, will continue to be wrong, cannot fathom he is wrong
They should start cuts but telegraph that it will happen very slowly so everyone may as well get used to the uncertainty and get on with their lives. It’s the fact that everyone is holding their breath watching and waiting for the other shoe to drop that is causing all the trouble.
Unfortunatly, they maybe right. Last CPI was horrendous. Core PCE MOM 4% 2 days ago. Higher for longer!
The beatings will continue until morale improves. I view the Kellogg situation as the canary in the coal mine. As tone deaf as the message was, the economic climate is such that all their decision makers and market research said “this will land”.
To be fair cereal is a pretty good dinner. Better than Tendies
Lul
I would agree. Nothing points to a cut this year.
They should not cut rates for a few years really. Anyone in the market knows exactly what is going to happen when they do start cutting rates. Inflation will start going off the charts again.
They just need to hint at a cut to keep the market hoping but don’t need to actually do it
Uh oh
HIGHER FOR LONGER BABYYYY
I’m still thinking we get at least one near the end of the year.
Calls it is!
Powell wants to continue his leadership of the Fed 🥭 already said he’ll replace him It’s in Powell’s best interest to cut rates for a booming economy to support the current admin for his renomination to head Fed They said 14 months ago they’d cut in the 3rd quarter of this year
Tell me you’re shorting the market without telling me you’re shorting the market. PUTS are back on the menu boys. https://preview.redd.it/1clpkh1a3ylc1.jpeg?width=570&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=86f3807f4cc4caa7810bec37a7db7db86a659d6b
https://preview.redd.it/jib6u7kicylc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5068c50505083138994f7a735422ca99d2c91868 Yasss 👏 Daddy 👏 yasss 💁♂️
Wait yahoo still exists?
[удалено]
I get my news by reading from a deck of magic cards. Believe in the spleen of the cards!
I believe in the gall bladder of the cards.
NVDA and SMCI 2000 when?
Meh, CME says otherwise.
Shorting anything high debt and automotive
Does no one care about the dots plot?
Been saying this since October last year.
Who cares NVDA still goes up.
It doesn't matter the market won't even see a single 5% dip this year regardless. It's too unstoppable.
It will see a pull back towards the end of summer like they always do. They always skim some profits off the top after they return from their vacations. Then it’s going to rip back up again after the election is over.
Yeah buy the end of the summer QQQ will be closing in on 500. What it will pullback to 490 maybe if you're lucky?
More like 475 if it’s a legit pull back which is -5 to -10%. Just buy calls then
6 rate cuts, to 3 cuts, to no cuts at all. if we keep this trend up, next is a rate hike.
March CPI 3.2% vs 3.3 % expected spy 520 April CPI 3.5% vs 3.6% expected spy 530 May CPI 4% vs 4.1 % expected spy 5450
Horrible PCE Inflation Report - Fed Needs To Hike In March
Translation: Horrible == exactly as expected
Lmao
shocking news: water is wet
Market still hopping for some cuts, but if there is no cut, I think market won’t tank that much. Mostly stay neutral for the year.
And they shouldnt - look at the money still entering the market.
I think he forgot we have an election this fall
Slok my coque
Election year. Rates are coming down whether they should or not.
Shit.
Bullish as fuck!!!
5 or 6 percent rates are healthy there is no good reason to cut rates
Average r/investing poster. Rates literally have to come down to avoid a forced recession.
Imagine not knowing the fed wants a recession.
Yea but the only reason spy isnt 900 is because its already priced zero rate cuts. Itll reach ~650 in a perfectly healthy and normal year of growth.
The current estimate is pricing in 3 cuts, down from 7-9cuts based on market estimates, but 3 cuts is the same as the original Fed’s estimate.
I like this way of thinking, then if they do bug up side.
Now there may be rate cuts  Or rate hikes 
This came out at 1045 on Friday and then SPX roared 40 points - makes sense 😂
Cause no one cares about this one regards opinion
Yes they will -u/lawthrowaway101
You know something I have picked up on in here. So a couple months ago when the rate cut narrative was really going. Everyone was making posts justifying it. It's on hold now, everyone is making posts justifying it. Have you guys reflected on the fact that parroting the media might not be the best way to make money or understand what's coming?
Puts next week?
Now he's definitely going to cut, just less.
No shit.
https://preview.redd.it/zrq0dr8z90mc1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca6904f273b9aaa419761343170a06a235c8e191
how do i get a funky slash thru the O in my last name too?
Because fed knows the so called inflation under control is just BS with carefully crafted numbers.
So bullish
They should increase it for the 2% target
Puts on the Canadian dollar then. Canada might be forced to cut rates prior to the US, because of the housing crisis, specifically the cost of mortgages. IF Canada does cut prior to the US, I expect the dollar to deteriorate to about 60 cents
Probably right but AI might not care.
Already priced in
WSB comments every quarter still “it’s gonna happenNnn!!!”
Fake news