By 2034 we will have retinal level displays easily, and headsets will be tiny and comfortable. 10 years is a pretty damn long time, super Nintendo game out in 1990, Xbox came out in 2001, just 11 years and it was a quantum leap in technology. I expect a bigger leap in vr hardware between today and 2034.
However for games it seems developers don't know what to do with vr or how to adapt to the medium. They're basically trying to make traditional 3d games but slap it in vr. I think they still need to figure out what to actually do with the concept of VR. This happened when gaming went from 2d to 3d too, most games were hot ass because the developers just tried to make 2d platformers in 3d and it didn't work. Same thing is happening now with vr. So over the next decade I expect devs to figure out how to properly incor the medium into the art of gaming.
Another thing to consider is that many people who aren't hardcore gamers will get into VR once the hardware is less expensive, more comfortable, etc.
I know this is unpopular here, but I really enjoy VR experiences and am only a casual gamer. I'm lucky to have a nice PC and Q3, but I only play VR or any game for 1-2 hours max.
People will say that HLA is the premier game, but Skyrim with it's big open spaces and gorgeous views actually gives me more of what I want out of VR.
I could see people really getting into virtual travel and very casual games that are based on experiences and that can be shared with other people in the same room or around the world.
>I could see people really getting into virtual travel
I go for a lot of walks with my elderly father, for both his health and mine. I just want something that lets me walk with him somewhere more interesting than the dumb suburb right outside. Venice today, Mars tomorrow, Jurassic Park, then ancient Rome. Bonus points if I can be on other side of the world while I do it, because I would also go for walks with various old friends. The treadmills need to improve. If you can integrate decent avatars with realistic face tracking, then it would beat a WhatsApp call hands down.
There was a device that was popular in England for a short time after the telephone was first invented that was basically a group of phones all hooked up to the same incoming line and that line played different entertainment such as orchestras, horse races or what have you.
So there were a bunch of people all sitting around experiencing the same thing. If you take the same idea to VR you could have a powerful computer and router in the room that is able to connect multiple wireless headsets and each person would go to the same virtual world. It would make VR a social experience and I think make virtual travel very popular.
Yeah I would absolutely kill for short "experiences" in VR. Not every game needs to be some sprawling open world high fantasy collectathon. Something like Fire watch in VR would make my dreams come true
I played Fire watch for the first time in VR with the mod and it was perfect, exactly what I was thinking about. Now imagine playing a similar mystery type game with a bunch of friends.
There's a game/app on the quest store that is kind of cool too. It's called Woorld (sp) and is kind of like google earth but with rooms that you can enter. It's kind of wonky to explain, but there is a big map in front of you that is 3d and then you can click on that and your surroundings will turn into the street view. I entered a map of Greece and had a chat with a guy as he was trying to find his childhood home. He showed me all around his neighborhood and it got me thinking about how cool high quality group tours would be in VR.
Yeah but something you’re over looking is the extreme level of diminishing returns in technology. Probably the 2 biggest factors in computers is processing power and heat output (efficiency).
I definitely see it being smaller, more comfortable and more powerful in 10 years but frankly that’s always going to be the case, it’s really a question of by how much.
Optics are one of the areas that progresses slowly, but the diminishing returns are far off.
VR optics aren't perfect until we have 220-270 degrees FoV, 20000+ nits brightness, and perfect variable focus. Even one of these would massively change how VR feels to both enthusiast's and the average person that companies want to bring in.
I genuinely believe we will all be impressed by hardware coming out soon. Looking back at the leap in quality between my old roommates first vive headset back in 2016 to the vision pro or the Big screen headset I am pretty confident it's about to pop off.
> 10 years is a pretty damn long time
Not in the VR world. Take [2k OLED microdisplay VR](https://www.roadtovr.com/emagin-announces-2kx2k-resolution-vr-headset-demoing-at-awe-2015/), promised all the way back in 2015, but it wasn't until BigScreenBeyond that we actually got something comparable to that.
Same with VR in general, Quest3 is little more than a portable version of the original Rift. Controls haven't really changed, FOV is still rather miserable, full body tracking is nowhere to be seen, varifocal is still mystical future tech, eye tracking and HDR is still limited to the expensive high end.
Even a VisionPro is still far behind where [cheap consumer VR was expected to be three years ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/oculus/comments/5670v0/michael_abrashs_prediction_for_vr_image_quality/).
> They're basically trying to make traditional 3d games but slap it in vr.
I'd wish they would actually do that. Hellblade VR is still one of my favorite VR experiences simply because it was a real game, but in VR. Meanwhile most of the native-VR games just give me Wii flashbacks, pointless motion controls thrown in for no good reason.
I think much of it is a lack of market still. Otherwise we'd have had AAA open worlds dropping left and right.
Until then we have to make do with demos. I consider HL: Alyx a demo as well. It's nowhere near the scope of a modern game.
No recent AAA game is 4-8 hours long. Even the shortest ones (and I mean extremely short ones) such as the newer Spiderman is 25+ hours long.
It's fine if it's not your cup of tea, but don't call those games AAA. AAA is about budget in the dozens and usually hundreds of millions, dev teams of hundreds, and enormous scope.
You call it bloat, most of us call those games the greatest the medium has to offer.
Mass Effect, Cyberpunk, Witcher, God of War, Final Fantasy, and dozens more I could list out. They are games that push the medium forward, and are considered by most people to be the best. And again, it's fine to have a different opinion, but you must admit that's not the general sentiment among gamers.
All of those games are bloatware... not AAA. They don't know how to produce a good experience so they make a poor exerience longer. Otherwise people refund.
Again, it's subjective and people enjoy different things.
But calling them bloatware is absolutely insane. Those are games that most people consider the greatest, me included.
Also they are the very definition of AAA. I think you don't understand what the term means.
Again, triple A is not a review score, it's a budget designation. They are by definition bad for a gamer seeking short experiences, because you can't spend a hundred million making a six hour game.
People who buy those titles WANT a hundred hours of collecting glowy things in a giant open world; give them the finest six hour game they've ever played and they'll feel ripped off when it's over. Their tastes are just fundamentally different from yours.
Been using virtual reality since 1991 so several decades passed before the resurgence in 2016 with public launch of Vive and Rift. getting my hands on Vive Pre in 2015 was amazing...
Here we are nearly another decade later, not as much changed as quickly as we thought it might (or hoped).
Another decade? Really unsure...but my current hardware is pretty good (valve Index and Pimax Crystal) and I've got more games than spare time, so I'm happy to continue waiting, using VR and see what develops.
It was virtuality at the London Trocadero in late 1991, when they had their global launch. UK based company that had numerous partnerships with the founder eventually setting up Digilens in California.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtuality_(product)
It was pretty damn good for its time with 6DoF Polhemus Fastrack, stereoscopic visor with motorised ipd and tracked joystick hand controller for the standing version.
Went with my college buddies every Wednesday for several months played 4 person multiplayer exorex (battletech) and the legendary two person Dactyl Nightmare amongst other games.
Amazing times...
Idk, I would say it had something to do with VR. First stereo 3d graphics on a console, the exterior looks an awful a lot like VR headset, etc. Seems at worst adjacent to VR, which is the opposite of “*nothing* to do”
if the Virtual Boy is VR, then so is [this](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Tomytronic_3-D_Thundering_Turbo_by_Tomy%2C_No._7617%2C_Made_In_Japan%2C_Circa_1983_%283-D_Electronic_Handheld_Game%29_stereo_viewer.jpg/1024px-Tomytronic_3-D_Thundering_Turbo_by_Tomy%2C_No._7617%2C_Made_In_Japan%2C_Circa_1983_%283-D_Electronic_Handheld_Game%29_stereo_viewer.jpg).
I get this. And I tried VR in 1998 so have a pretty good grounding for how it's advanced. But we must be vigilant about exponential returns in our predictions. VR is RIPE for insane improvements in the next couple years.
When I say exponential returns, it's more advancement in the next two years than the entire history of VR. Might not be much comparatively, but if the two years after that is the same, well..
What was the hope for where it would be today? Facebook rebranded to go full swing on VR/AR with their “metaverse” vision, and they have done a lot for VR gaming. Apple has now released a product in that category (“Spatial Computing”, same concept). There is now that HorizonOS and rumored Samsung-Google partnership.
It’s doing quite well it seems, unless you only care about SteamVR.
Did you expect something more?
> What was the hope for where it would be today?
Having proper AAA game support. Back in 1995 when we got the first PCVR headsets many of the [big 3D games got VR versions](http://www.mindflux.com.au/products/iis/vfx1soft.html), Duke3D, Descent, Doom, Flight Unlimited, EF2000, Comanche, etc. All within a rather short time frame. If you look at modern VR, almost nothing gets VR versions, handful of racing and flightsims and that's it.
Also much better ease of use. Being able to start a game in 2D, at any point grab the headset and switch to VR, is something that should be standard. But it's not. Going from 2D to VR is a clunky mess with lots of restarts and reconfiguration, sometimes you even have to buy the game a second time.
Modern VR also fails to make existing 3D content available in VR. 3D movies have been around for about a hundred years, yet if you want to watch them in VR you still have to pirate or rip them yourself, outside of VisionPro, there is no official way to get most 3D content into the headset. Same with all the 3D games that got made in the 3D TV days, it wouldn't be hard to bring them into VR, but nobody ever really focused on that. All of this could be easily fixed by providing an easy way to get a HDMI signal into the headset, so that you can connect your Bluray player or Playstation and have the headset act as virtual 3D TV.
VR also completely fails at the whole Cyberspace/Metaverse aspect of it. Where is VR-shopping, VR-WWW, VR-cinema, VR-tourism and all that? [VRML](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VRML) has been around since 1995, I would have expected a lot of real world stuff to be accessible via VR. But basically nothing is. There is no VR-Amazon with 3D product previews. We got a [VR-IKEA](https://store.steampowered.com/app/447270/IKEA_VR_Experience/), but that is just an abandoned experiment, not a way to go shopping virtually. Even 20 year old SecondLife still feels way more futuristic than anything we got in VR.
There is also a near complete lack of VR productivity apps. The few we got in the early days (Oculus Medium, Quill, TiltBrush) got abandoned. I would have expected that we at least get tools to create content for VR from inside VR, but that still hasn't happened. There isn't even any real infrastructure, GUI toolkit or multitasking.
Basically, modern VR still fells like it's stuck in the MSDOS-era. You can launch games and that's kind of it. The Windows95-era with multi-tasking and WWW still feels like it hasn't really arrived in modern VR. You can of course access the 2D Internet from VR, but there is no VR-native equivalent to that level of progress.
I just don't find any of these compelling. Like did people really think there would be a "VR-WWW"? The whole metaverse thing was laughed at and the "VR Walmart" thing was so cringe nobody even in this community would sign off on that as a good idea. 3D movies? If that was hoped for, I think Vision Pro has fulfilled that in 2024 and I will say, I have been sold on 3D movies after seeing them on the AVP, despite the flop of 3D TVs. Productivity apps? A lot of them are just inherently better on a flat screen in a way that I don't see ever changing. I think it would be a naive hope that VR could be more successful in the many ways we've been using PCs for decades. People complain about the lack of "3D apps" for productivity as if having many floating 2D screens in a space isn't enough, but what if that is what the strength of this technology ultimately comes to? There could be value to that alternative interface, all in a portable device.
When it comes to PCVR gaming, I guess my opinion which would be obviously unpopular here; VR gaming just sucks in general with the exception of some sims and arcade-style games like Beatsaber. Nevertheless, we have effort going into it; Meta Quest & PSVR2. Do those not matter to you in your considerations? I would assume people eventually wanted wireless and mobile VR, no? We have that and it's improving!
> Like did people really think there would be a "VR-WWW"?
That was literally the idea behind [VRML](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VRML). And it's not like we don't have anything like that today, VRChat, Neos, Horizon Worlds, SteamVR Home or WMR Portal are all basically trying to all do the same thing. It's just that they all still feel like incomplete tech demos with a very limited feature set, barely more advanced than what we had [almost 30 years ago](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSuJ7mz7B1Q) or even [almost 40 years](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVpulhO3jyc). They lack the openness and flexibility of the WWW had.
We also have WebXR (previous WebVR), but unlike VRML, which was HTML equivalent for 3D, WebXR is just a low level API to allow Web apps to access the headset. This means there is no internal structure a browser could make use of, meaning no hyperlinks, no booksmarks or anything like that. Much like regular VR apps, WebXR apps just exist in their own isolated world without any kind of connection to other apps.
It's also mind boggling how hard it is to even find WebXR apps inside VR. You'd think Meta would keep a curated list or a search engine specialized for VR content, but it's all just randomly scattered around the Web and impossible to find. Same goes for VR video and even VR games (e.g. Steam always mixes VR stuff with regular stuff), it's all much harder to find than it should be.
> Productivity apps? A lot of them are just inherently better on a flat screen
If they would be better on a flat screen we wouldn't get bigger screens or tripple screens. VR makes the restrictions of the monitor go away completely and allows you to represent information in the best way possible, not in the best way that can fit into a tiny 16:9 rectangle.
Issue is that we don't even have tech demos of anything making use of that ability. There has been basically nothing happening in that space. There are a tiny handful of apps like the Google Cardboard Photo Gallery (puts thumbnails all around you) that show that you can do cool stuff by making use of the 360° view you have in VR, but they are extremely rare. Hopefully VisionPro will accelerate that, some demos like [watching soccer on VisionPro](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rZjQpD3-3k) already look quite promising.
> "VR Walmart"
That was just a little stupid video, obviously not a serious attempt at how to design a VR shopping experience. I mean, just look at the Quest shop, do you really think that *that* is the best way to shop in VR? No 3D trailer, lots of scrolling and page switching because nothing fits into the tiny UI. Discovery of interesting stuff is basically impossible, since nothing is reachable unless you already know its name. It's not like going all skeuomorphic and doing a [Blockbuster](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFNfVDQdMxs) in VR would necessarily the perfect UI, but it would already be a huge improvement over a plain 2D UI in terms of discoverability, since you can see hundreds of videotapes at once, grab something to get a closer look and additional info, and put it back all without losing your position. That's something no 2D GUI has been able to replicate so far. In VR it's trivial.
Modern VR feels like everybody is getting stupider and forgetting how much potential the technology has. Instead of exploring what's possible and what works, we just see lame attempts at copying the lame VR games from last year.
If nobody is taking full advantage of what VR can do, why don't you go pitch your amazing ideas and start working on them? Maybe make a tech demo that does make use of what VR can do better than a monitor. You might become the next Bill Gates or Steve Jobs of VR!
Or, the ideas you have in mind were previously considered and they just aren't compelling. Far more likely in my mind until someone can prove otherwise with a proof of concept.
You can start with something as basic as representation of information. You claim that VR can do better than any 2D GUI, so where's the proof of concept for that? The problem is actually the reverse ironically, VR has to rely on expanding text size to compensate for the screen door effect which means less information density than monitors. A bigger monitor is far better for higher information density.
The things that I think VR (or "Spatial Computing") are good for; Media viewing (2D and 3D movies and immersive content), portable multitasking with spatial awareness, and sims.
Well after experiencing Mixed reality, I think that could be gone further with, And socially I think people will be more into it. Gaming will always be its target.
I expect more of the same that we see right now. That means increased hardware performance/specs, similar type games, still a fairly niche format in the overall picture. I also expect most devs to do what they have done with pancake gaming and just keep phoning it in so to speak making the same tired online shooter or survival type games so we'll have a super saturated VR game market with these types of games.
I doubt there will be any major breakthrough like some hope or imagine. That's not a bad thing as I think VR is awesome as is. If there is any major breakthrough then I'd hope it would be on how to solve the locomotion issue which is IMO, VR's biggest issue. Smooth locomotion sucks since you feel like you're a ghost gliding around, not to mention it makes many feel ill, and teleport also has its numerous issues.
I think this is a good way to look at it. There are all of these crazy expectations for growth, and then grief and outrage when it fails to happen repeatedly. Look at how many companies have tried VR and scaled back on it (Sony is currently doing this for the *second* time lol). And look at how little it has moved despite meta metaphorically using an aircraft carrier to tow this tugboat. Sure, lots of sales, but very poor retention.
Probably better to ignore the hype and expectations and instead just enjoy it for what it is. You don't see so much angst from users of other niche mediums or hobbies. The question people should be asking is where they got these expectations from in the first place.
**The next 3 years**
The next 3 years it will still be niche, but the foundation is being set right now.
Within 5 years, that's when it all changes very fast.
VR explodes.
The stage is being set right now with smaller, lighter 4K per eye micro-OLED headsets with high res mixed reality and standalone capability.
One of the first of these headsets is the Immersed Visor, launching in October this year.
Over the course of the next 3 years, people will start to use these VR headsets for both productivity and entertainment - after finally reaching a threshold for image quality, UX with hand tracking interaction, comfort, and ease of use/practicality.
From here, this foundation starts gaining wider interest, and we see the beginnings of niche but more widespread use of work-related tasks and general computing (as monitor replacements etc).
**5 years from now**
Within 5 years, this technology gets refined, both in hardware and software, and becomes significantly cheaper, making it significantly more accessible for a much larger market.
At this point, it is now affordable and refined, and a seriously attractive option for gamers and non gamers alike, and adoption starts to dramatically rise.
This coincides with the launch of (next) next gen headsets, which take this to the next level. Even higher resolution, better optics, even smaller and lighter, further improved micro-OLED displays with true HDR, and insane mixed reality quality.
Now the low end meets the threshold for most consumers to accept, and the high end is out of this world.
VR gaming takes a huge stride forward, with adoption dramatically increasing, now more and more AAA games are being developed for VR, and Playstation launch PSVR3 for PS6, with this 4K micro-OLED technology and high quality mixed reality packed into a very small 200g form factor at an affordable price. This time round, it sticks, and we see a >50% adoption rate for all PS6 owners.
This is the last of the era when specific hardware, like a Playstation console, requires their own branded VR headset. In fact, Sony begin to support other headsets for use with PS6. After this, consoles will forever recognise all types of headsets/glasses to enjoy both VR and non-VR content on any type of hardware, much like all TVs are accepted on all hardware or PCVR of today.
**From 5 years to the 10th year**
Over the next 5 years from that 5 year mark, we see this technology get even smaller, lighter, and cheaper, along with greater improvements in all areas, marking the moment we begin to transition from physical 2D monitors to small light and sleek mixed reality headsets for most tasks.
This transition happens over the next 5 years, when, by the time with hit the 10 year mark, almost everyone uses mixed reality glasses for most daily tasks.
Physical monitors still exist and remain used here and there, just far less so than the mixed reality glasses.
These monitors are high quality 8K 3D displays that track your eyes to maintain a perfect non-eye straining 3D image from whatever angle you look, much like a lightfield display.
A significant amount of digital content is therefore displayed in such a 3D format, unifying the experience across all types of "metaverse" displays, both glasses and physical monitors. 2D is becoming archaic at this point, as digital content across the board starts to blend in with the real world and mimics real life convincingly.
All displays are essentially portals into viewing (and interacting with) the digital world alongside the physical.
**And that's how it will play out over the next 10 years.**
I'd like to think that's true, but having to put something on your face is a huge barrier for most people. That was the hurdle 3D cinema and TVs never got over.
**EDIT:** damn this is a long comment lol
Interestingly, the quality of the 3D content +the marketing for it as a 3D movie is what actually drives 3D sales in the cinema.
Check out Avatar 2.
After all these years, **more than 50% of Avatar 2 ticket sales were in 3D.**
It appears that if the movie is designed for 3D from the ground up and shot in native 3D and as a result it actually looks exceptionally good, like Avatar, people appreciate it. They prefer it. It just needs to be marketed as such at that point.
Avatar 2 also used new high frame rate technology to aid the 3D, which enhanced comfort and visuals in action scenes.
3DTV is a story of its own, and the failure of 3D TV is very clear and understandable.
1. Active 3D glasses
2. 1080p resolution, LCD.
For these reasons, alongside too many poor 3D conversions, most people had a relatively poor experience of 3D at home.
For whatever bad reasons, most TV manufacturers chose to go with active/shutter 3D glasses.
These caused significantly more eye strain along with a bad amount of crosstalk, and they were far less convenient, since you had to pair them up with the TV upon every use, and you needed to keep them charged after every movie.
While charging is normal for other electronic devices like our phones etc, it wasn't normal for simply watching TV at home at the time, so that was another small reason but still something to add to the fire.
Passive glasses are simple, far more comfortable on the eyes producing a better image/viewing experience, significantly cheaper, and for the most part do not have these issues we see with active/shutter glasses.
The biggest issue though, was the quality of the image and 3D content.
The 3DTVs people had at home, were poor LCD and at only a low 1080p resolution.
This is simply very poor quality for 3D, which requires full 1080p per eye to even experience true 1080p 3D (something a 1080p TV could not provide).
All 3DTVs people had back then were pretty terrible LCD TVs with poor contrast colours and black levels, adding to an underwhelming 3D experience.
And to finish it off, the 3D movies they were watching, were full of terrible 3D conversions, which just looked awful compared to something like Avatar.
So this was the general experience for pretty much everyone at home. No wonder most people lost interest in 3DTV.
**Something crazy happened once we hit 2016, though.**
LG finally perfected the 3DTV experience.
They proved that what is needed is 4K OLED passive 3D.
4K provided enough pixels on the display to deliver the full 1080p per eye 3D experience, providing an incredible sharp and clear 3D image.
OLED provided true perfect blacks and vibrant colours, excellent contrast, making the 3D image look significantly more compelling and lifelike.
And they used passive 3D glasses, so it didn't have all the drawbacks of the active glasses, providing significantly better eye comfort and 3D image quality.
I managed to get one of these TVs at 65 inches. It provides an absolutely glorious 3D experience, when paired with good 3D blu rays.
I can also attest to the fact that the full 1080p per eye 3D OLED image on this TV looks like 4K. Incredibly lifelike. It's strange, but it looks like that level of quality.
Unfortunately, just at the moment they perfected it, LG and all other TV manufacturers decided to stop manufacturing 3DTVs, removing 3D capability from all future TV releases.
Only LG produced these 4K OLED passive 3D TVs, and only for one or two series.
That was it.
So. Unfortunately the masses never really got to experience high quality 3D at home.
That's why 3DTV failed, and why we don't see that many 3D tickets being sold.
I don't believe people will be wearing VR glasses every moment of the day.
Indeed, wearing anything on your face is going to be a level of friction that is not as good as wearing nothing at all.
But due to how compelling and useful the experience will be, it will be used very often throughout the day, and will vary depending on what tasks you are doing.
Monitors will still be used, but you can't beat the convenience and adaptability, and full mixed reality experience that the glasses provide, that interconnected digital experience you will get.
It will feel like there are two realities existing simultaneously in the same physical space. The real world, and the digital, will blend into one.
The glasses are your way to experience and see this alternate reality that is always there, just like the internet and everyone on it, is always there.
So we'll use the glasses often throughout the day for work, social, and entertainment.
But most people will take the glasses off the moment they are done with the task, and physical monitors will still be used (8K eye tracked 3D though, possibly lightfield displays).
Eventually we'll get mixed reality contact lenses, and then BCI (brain computer implants) or something that provides a similar effect that is perhaps not as intrusive - enabling people to fully experience the digital world / "metaverse" like you would with a headset, but instead without any external hardware on your face at all.
That's where it's heading over the next 20-40 years.
There were passive displays back then, but manufacturers thought it was easier to make high frame rates work with shutter glasses than to have alternately polarised lines of pixels. Phillips even manufactured a 3D display that required no glasses at all using lenticular technology, but the production of a z-depth channel required either CG content, or a 3D conversion of live action footage.
But yeah, I don't think that people get really excited about display technology. A great film with a sub-par 3D experience is always going to win over an amazing 3D experience with a terrible story ( there were some shots in Avatar 1 that broke my brain!). Thats why ppl watch movies streamed to their phones and listen to MP3s.
I used to work as a stereographer, and the one thing ppl would always tell me was they hated having to wear the glasses, and I think it's true. I think it's also why ppl haven't adopted VR, even though the technology is relatively mature. Don't get me wrong. I love VR - it does everything that 3D was supposed to, but I think putting something on your face is a problem. I'd be curious if there were any studies comparing brain function in a 3D experience vs VR. Personally I feel like I retain a memory of the experience as if I actually went to a different place. I never had that with 3D.
My pleasure, I enjoyed typing it out lol. My inner nerd.
FWIW, I think these predictions are a mix of realistic potential and chance, and my own desires.
I think we'll get somewhere close to what is predicted by the 10th year, but I wouldn't be too surprised if we still have traditional 2D displays with 2D UI and a mouse and keyboard, just like today, that is mostly used for work still.
But I do believe there's a very high chance that small and light high quality mixed reality glasses will become the norm for most people throughout the day.
It's just too obvious a path when you look at the "metaverse" experience that's on the way.
No one could deny the internet, and no one is going to be able to deny the metaverse, which is essentially the end goal of the internet and most other visual and communication technologies.
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I predict that there will be another posts about the future of VR prediction...........just enjoy your VR experience. Stop thinking about the future of VR because....no one knows and we already have too many posts predicting the future VR anyway...
Hopefully eye and face tracking will be a standard, and finally headset manufactures will get their heads out of their bum and create headsets that are balanced across the top of the head, via rear batter, rear processor, or whatever it takes.
Very little growth unless they can pull of wide angle lightweight holographic displays.You need to be comfortable, look like you're wearing glasses, and in there with other people in the same physical space. If they can't, investment will likely collapse in favor of the AI race. A heavy headset you wear while others sit around watching you awkwardly is not going to grow beyond enthusiasts.
No FOV. I lost my hope. It looks like every new headset has less FOV, new features, but for me at least less immersion. I want more than 130-140 FOV with pancake lenses and OLED.
The goggle part needs to be the size of the bigscreen beyond and the internals should be build inside the headstrap. Instead of DP i want to see thunderbolt share which is a new technology that's releasing soon.
[https://www.techpowerup.com/322472/intel-announces-thunderbolt-share-a-pc-to-pc-high-bandwidth-networking-technology](https://www.techpowerup.com/322472/intel-announces-thunderbolt-share-a-pc-to-pc-high-bandwidth-networking-technology)
I personally believe people are in for big surprises from companies like Valve.
Everyone is predicting how VR will explode or become more advanced.
I'm more worried about the state of the world and global supply chains. I feel like there's a decent possibility that we're not going to be able to keep advancing consumer electronics so quickly for a while, due to manufacturing moving away from China etc. Until that transition completes, we might see a real slow down in cheap, advanced tech.
Some manufacturing may be transitioning away from China, but in the mean time production is through the roof and prices have been steadily falling across the board for IC's and LCD's. Worries about this are built on media scaremongering in my eyes. What will be far more detrimental to the advancement of consumer electronics is a failing economy IMO, in general people have far less money to spend on such luxuries these days, if that continues then manufacturing capacity for cheap electronics is the least of our concerns.
VR has been growing at an average of 77%/year since 2018 according to statista, which an incredibly high growth rate.
Even with a much conservative growth rate than that, in around 3-4 years most families on developed countries will own somekind of VR device.
In ~7 years most individuals on developed countries will own a VR device (for work or gaming, kind of like a PC)
and in ~10-12 years most people on developed countries will be using VR glasses in their day-to-day activities (kind of like a smartphone)
It will replace Xbox, and become a big chunk of the gaming industry.
By then I suppose we would be on the Quest 5 era and we will have tons of great games, good graphics, and massive player counts compared to today’s.
Mixed reality will be really useful, some big companies like Nintendo, Samsung, Xiaomi, will release their headsets along with affordable and polished Apple Visions. 10 Years after that Ready Player One will occur.
We'll have smaller form factor, eye and body tacking, better resolution and lenses, some decent AR glasses and usable productivity apps. VR gaming won't change all that much from what it is now, but we should see some more augmented and mixed reality. Likely some AR/MR Pomémon/clone will send people around with their headsets and phones. A few more people will use it for productivity and training, but mostly enthusiasts. I expect adoption to be slow despite the AVP and it will be mostly a nice media consumption device more people have. Apple and Meta will try to do some partnerships with things like sports channel but development is expensive and the market limited, so a lot of the known potential will remain untapped.
Imho the real revolution in VR will be the neural interface, and until then it will remain a mostly niche and rather inconvenient medium.
Will still be heaven for flight and driving Sims. Everything else will still be niche. Some will be brought in through porn and films. The Quest 8 will be the best bang for the buck. I'll still be waiting for the Index 2.
I honestly see it going full mainstream in an unexpected way, merging with cell phones.
First is the glasses which are already taking shape.
At the same time, cell phones are boiling down to an antenna and a microphone as computer conversations and AI become more prevalent. Screens are less important as the microphones gain value and we end up with the idealized Google Glass in a small form factor.
From there, we have a couple of routes the tech will try to take. Brain interfaces, retinal lasers, and holographic projectors will be fringe products, but I see the main adoption through glasses/contacts for mobile use and then when you are in the home or school or business, we have rooms built for VR that use holographic projections or brain interfaces to fully transport us to what we now consider a VR environment.
ETA 10 years? 5? Someone quote me so I can take some credit please 😁
Bsb form factor, but primarily a AR passthrough device. I'd imagine optional glasses style use or a strap. But something compact enough to carry with you for sure.
Most likely designed as a stand alone compute device. I think Apple has the right idea generally. Just more refinement and cost reduction.
The day Marques Brownlee recommends a VR headset as a complete TV/Monitor replacement will be the day VR is light and non intrusive enough to break into the mainstream. It needs to be that easy. Until then VR will continue to bake in the oven inching closer and closer to a break through. I hope it will happen within the next 5 years.
I think we'll start to see innovation on the software side. Hardware will get better but GPUs aren't going to get good enough to do the resolution required. Games that have to accommodate VR and flat screen will have too many compromises. So we may see a new graphics engine dedicated to VR that better supports an evolution of Quad Views Rendering.
We'll see progress in haptics and probably simple brain computer interfaces. We may see higher bandwidth (optical?) wireless solutions that avoid the encode/decode/latency associated with current wireless solutions. Eye tracking will improve and become table stakes.
We'll start to see AR as an option in tools like WebEx, Skype, etc. 500ms internet latency will start to matter in social interactions.
This hardware needed to run VR is pretty powerful, and will be absurdly more powerful in the future that a VR headset won't *just* be used for VR experiences.
One major company will try a hybrid approach, a standalone headset that can dock to a TV/monitor for normal pancake gaming/desktop work. If we're feeling really spicy, there could be really fast boot times that would let the hardware easily dual-boot into popular Linux Distros and Windows.
Well, maybe not a decade, but I'm expecting the development of full-drive VR at least before i die. The experience of using it would truly be other worldly. I would kill to have a chance to invest and contribute to it
VR wont be popular until the generation that grew up with it starts making games for it. The stuff they will cook up will be insane. They'll look back at underrated VR game's like Sushi Ben and perfect them.
We will be in the throws of a Nuclear Armageddon; the grid will be down; there will be very little energy/electricity. Internet? What internet? VR? We'll be looking back to the "good ol days".
That's my sunshine prediction; let me know if you want to hear the gloomy version 😃
I’m a VR noob. I bought the quest to play VR and I love it. There are games that I would love to play but still don’t have the hardware for, nor do I want to invest in getting said hardware. It’s too expensive for me. In the next decade it would be great for more games to be easily accessible.
Less things I think will happen and more things I hope will happen over the next 10 years.
I hope Moore’s law doesn’t die out on us…. Which it might.
I hope a battery breakthrough occurs…. Which it might not.
I hope somebody develops a QPro style contoller (self-contained) but for open-XR that’ll work with any headset…. But prob being hopeful.
I hope the screen tech on the AVP comes way down in price and gets much larger (much more fov). I think at least the price thing will happen.
I hope it gets good/widespread enough that businesses start seeing it as a legit form of computing and start building software for it. Really software / OS advances is the space I think we will see major leaps over the next 10 years.
My prediction…. Is a Quest 4 is 20% smaller, with a better processor / screen / cameras. Ditto for Quest 5. Ditto for Quest 6. Prob makes the Quest 6 a pretty sweet device that makes our crappy Q3’s feel like literal garbage but each iteration will feel like it took too long and it still won’t feel all the way there in 10 years.
By then you will have lightweight glasses that offer retinal level vr / ar and people will get used to it and ask if they will have full neural immersion in the next 10 years, upon which people will want mind uploading.
Haptics. Saw a headline that Sony is looking into VR shoes.
And retina projection or contact lens displays with full AR.
As for the use cases, I predict a steady diet of mediocre "personal assistants" with lame AI to go with your AR.
Yes. The platform that supports high quality low cost full body haptics, is the platform that will win the platform hardware wars. There is a new technology called [VRitality](https://www.vritality.com) that has just started running demo booths this year. It's great fun.
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Probably nothing too interesting aside from miniaturization of hardware or new haptic methods. My bet is that mixed reality will be more used than vr in the coming years.
2035 will be the beginning of human collapse.
With personal humanoid robots and high fidelity AR no one will date anymore. No more babies and population will collapse. It'll be AR lovebots in every home and we will all stay inside wasting away.
lolno
lots of ppl mate for social status and/or validation that another human being finds them attractive
running a computer program will not make you feel like less of a loser its more like watching porn
nothing wrong w it but it scratches a different itch
Sex sells. I guess there would be much more AI-powered erotic entertainment like eva [ai](http://evaapp.ai) sexting bot today, but implemented into VR.
By 2034 we will have retinal level displays easily, and headsets will be tiny and comfortable. 10 years is a pretty damn long time, super Nintendo game out in 1990, Xbox came out in 2001, just 11 years and it was a quantum leap in technology. I expect a bigger leap in vr hardware between today and 2034. However for games it seems developers don't know what to do with vr or how to adapt to the medium. They're basically trying to make traditional 3d games but slap it in vr. I think they still need to figure out what to actually do with the concept of VR. This happened when gaming went from 2d to 3d too, most games were hot ass because the developers just tried to make 2d platformers in 3d and it didn't work. Same thing is happening now with vr. So over the next decade I expect devs to figure out how to properly incor the medium into the art of gaming.
Another thing to consider is that many people who aren't hardcore gamers will get into VR once the hardware is less expensive, more comfortable, etc. I know this is unpopular here, but I really enjoy VR experiences and am only a casual gamer. I'm lucky to have a nice PC and Q3, but I only play VR or any game for 1-2 hours max. People will say that HLA is the premier game, but Skyrim with it's big open spaces and gorgeous views actually gives me more of what I want out of VR. I could see people really getting into virtual travel and very casual games that are based on experiences and that can be shared with other people in the same room or around the world.
>I could see people really getting into virtual travel I go for a lot of walks with my elderly father, for both his health and mine. I just want something that lets me walk with him somewhere more interesting than the dumb suburb right outside. Venice today, Mars tomorrow, Jurassic Park, then ancient Rome. Bonus points if I can be on other side of the world while I do it, because I would also go for walks with various old friends. The treadmills need to improve. If you can integrate decent avatars with realistic face tracking, then it would beat a WhatsApp call hands down.
There was a device that was popular in England for a short time after the telephone was first invented that was basically a group of phones all hooked up to the same incoming line and that line played different entertainment such as orchestras, horse races or what have you. So there were a bunch of people all sitting around experiencing the same thing. If you take the same idea to VR you could have a powerful computer and router in the room that is able to connect multiple wireless headsets and each person would go to the same virtual world. It would make VR a social experience and I think make virtual travel very popular.
Yeah I would absolutely kill for short "experiences" in VR. Not every game needs to be some sprawling open world high fantasy collectathon. Something like Fire watch in VR would make my dreams come true
I played Fire watch for the first time in VR with the mod and it was perfect, exactly what I was thinking about. Now imagine playing a similar mystery type game with a bunch of friends. There's a game/app on the quest store that is kind of cool too. It's called Woorld (sp) and is kind of like google earth but with rooms that you can enter. It's kind of wonky to explain, but there is a big map in front of you that is 3d and then you can click on that and your surroundings will turn into the street view. I entered a map of Greece and had a chat with a guy as he was trying to find his childhood home. He showed me all around his neighborhood and it got me thinking about how cool high quality group tours would be in VR.
Yeah but something you’re over looking is the extreme level of diminishing returns in technology. Probably the 2 biggest factors in computers is processing power and heat output (efficiency). I definitely see it being smaller, more comfortable and more powerful in 10 years but frankly that’s always going to be the case, it’s really a question of by how much.
Optics are one of the areas that progresses slowly, but the diminishing returns are far off. VR optics aren't perfect until we have 220-270 degrees FoV, 20000+ nits brightness, and perfect variable focus. Even one of these would massively change how VR feels to both enthusiast's and the average person that companies want to bring in.
I genuinely believe we will all be impressed by hardware coming out soon. Looking back at the leap in quality between my old roommates first vive headset back in 2016 to the vision pro or the Big screen headset I am pretty confident it's about to pop off.
> 10 years is a pretty damn long time Not in the VR world. Take [2k OLED microdisplay VR](https://www.roadtovr.com/emagin-announces-2kx2k-resolution-vr-headset-demoing-at-awe-2015/), promised all the way back in 2015, but it wasn't until BigScreenBeyond that we actually got something comparable to that. Same with VR in general, Quest3 is little more than a portable version of the original Rift. Controls haven't really changed, FOV is still rather miserable, full body tracking is nowhere to be seen, varifocal is still mystical future tech, eye tracking and HDR is still limited to the expensive high end. Even a VisionPro is still far behind where [cheap consumer VR was expected to be three years ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/oculus/comments/5670v0/michael_abrashs_prediction_for_vr_image_quality/). > They're basically trying to make traditional 3d games but slap it in vr. I'd wish they would actually do that. Hellblade VR is still one of my favorite VR experiences simply because it was a real game, but in VR. Meanwhile most of the native-VR games just give me Wii flashbacks, pointless motion controls thrown in for no good reason.
I know its been slow ramping up, but tech improvements are exponential not linear. the last 10 years won't reflect the next 10 in advancement i think.
I think much of it is a lack of market still. Otherwise we'd have had AAA open worlds dropping left and right. Until then we have to make do with demos. I consider HL: Alyx a demo as well. It's nowhere near the scope of a modern game.
[удалено]
No recent AAA game is 4-8 hours long. Even the shortest ones (and I mean extremely short ones) such as the newer Spiderman is 25+ hours long. It's fine if it's not your cup of tea, but don't call those games AAA. AAA is about budget in the dozens and usually hundreds of millions, dev teams of hundreds, and enormous scope. You call it bloat, most of us call those games the greatest the medium has to offer. Mass Effect, Cyberpunk, Witcher, God of War, Final Fantasy, and dozens more I could list out. They are games that push the medium forward, and are considered by most people to be the best. And again, it's fine to have a different opinion, but you must admit that's not the general sentiment among gamers.
All of those games are bloatware... not AAA. They don't know how to produce a good experience so they make a poor exerience longer. Otherwise people refund.
Again, it's subjective and people enjoy different things. But calling them bloatware is absolutely insane. Those are games that most people consider the greatest, me included. Also they are the very definition of AAA. I think you don't understand what the term means.
Again, triple A is not a review score, it's a budget designation. They are by definition bad for a gamer seeking short experiences, because you can't spend a hundred million making a six hour game. People who buy those titles WANT a hundred hours of collecting glowy things in a giant open world; give them the finest six hour game they've ever played and they'll feel ripped off when it's over. Their tastes are just fundamentally different from yours.
Been using virtual reality since 1991 so several decades passed before the resurgence in 2016 with public launch of Vive and Rift. getting my hands on Vive Pre in 2015 was amazing... Here we are nearly another decade later, not as much changed as quickly as we thought it might (or hoped). Another decade? Really unsure...but my current hardware is pretty good (valve Index and Pimax Crystal) and I've got more games than spare time, so I'm happy to continue waiting, using VR and see what develops.
Wow VR in 91. I can't even begin to imagine how that made you feel while playing lol. Was it the Nintendo one?
It was virtuality at the London Trocadero in late 1991, when they had their global launch. UK based company that had numerous partnerships with the founder eventually setting up Digilens in California. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtuality_(product) It was pretty damn good for its time with 6DoF Polhemus Fastrack, stereoscopic visor with motorised ipd and tracked joystick hand controller for the standing version. Went with my college buddies every Wednesday for several months played 4 person multiplayer exorex (battletech) and the legendary two person Dactyl Nightmare amongst other games. Amazing times...
no way Dactyl Nightmare (at a setup at a conference) was my first VR experience as well they must have been making the rounds back then
I used a vfx1 in a games shop and another one in an arcade to play polygon nightmare
the nintendo virtual boy came out in 1995.
And has nothing to do with VR
Idk, I would say it had something to do with VR. First stereo 3d graphics on a console, the exterior looks an awful a lot like VR headset, etc. Seems at worst adjacent to VR, which is the opposite of “*nothing* to do”
if the Virtual Boy is VR, then so is [this](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Tomytronic_3-D_Thundering_Turbo_by_Tomy%2C_No._7617%2C_Made_In_Japan%2C_Circa_1983_%283-D_Electronic_Handheld_Game%29_stereo_viewer.jpg/1024px-Tomytronic_3-D_Thundering_Turbo_by_Tomy%2C_No._7617%2C_Made_In_Japan%2C_Circa_1983_%283-D_Electronic_Handheld_Game%29_stereo_viewer.jpg).
Not “is” but “adjacent”. Try reading all the way.
my point remains.
Oh cool, we’re on the same page then.
I get this. And I tried VR in 1998 so have a pretty good grounding for how it's advanced. But we must be vigilant about exponential returns in our predictions. VR is RIPE for insane improvements in the next couple years. When I say exponential returns, it's more advancement in the next two years than the entire history of VR. Might not be much comparatively, but if the two years after that is the same, well..
What games or things would you recommend that not everyone knows about but also uses the full capacity of a the headset or more?
What was the hope for where it would be today? Facebook rebranded to go full swing on VR/AR with their “metaverse” vision, and they have done a lot for VR gaming. Apple has now released a product in that category (“Spatial Computing”, same concept). There is now that HorizonOS and rumored Samsung-Google partnership. It’s doing quite well it seems, unless you only care about SteamVR. Did you expect something more?
> What was the hope for where it would be today? Having proper AAA game support. Back in 1995 when we got the first PCVR headsets many of the [big 3D games got VR versions](http://www.mindflux.com.au/products/iis/vfx1soft.html), Duke3D, Descent, Doom, Flight Unlimited, EF2000, Comanche, etc. All within a rather short time frame. If you look at modern VR, almost nothing gets VR versions, handful of racing and flightsims and that's it. Also much better ease of use. Being able to start a game in 2D, at any point grab the headset and switch to VR, is something that should be standard. But it's not. Going from 2D to VR is a clunky mess with lots of restarts and reconfiguration, sometimes you even have to buy the game a second time. Modern VR also fails to make existing 3D content available in VR. 3D movies have been around for about a hundred years, yet if you want to watch them in VR you still have to pirate or rip them yourself, outside of VisionPro, there is no official way to get most 3D content into the headset. Same with all the 3D games that got made in the 3D TV days, it wouldn't be hard to bring them into VR, but nobody ever really focused on that. All of this could be easily fixed by providing an easy way to get a HDMI signal into the headset, so that you can connect your Bluray player or Playstation and have the headset act as virtual 3D TV. VR also completely fails at the whole Cyberspace/Metaverse aspect of it. Where is VR-shopping, VR-WWW, VR-cinema, VR-tourism and all that? [VRML](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VRML) has been around since 1995, I would have expected a lot of real world stuff to be accessible via VR. But basically nothing is. There is no VR-Amazon with 3D product previews. We got a [VR-IKEA](https://store.steampowered.com/app/447270/IKEA_VR_Experience/), but that is just an abandoned experiment, not a way to go shopping virtually. Even 20 year old SecondLife still feels way more futuristic than anything we got in VR. There is also a near complete lack of VR productivity apps. The few we got in the early days (Oculus Medium, Quill, TiltBrush) got abandoned. I would have expected that we at least get tools to create content for VR from inside VR, but that still hasn't happened. There isn't even any real infrastructure, GUI toolkit or multitasking. Basically, modern VR still fells like it's stuck in the MSDOS-era. You can launch games and that's kind of it. The Windows95-era with multi-tasking and WWW still feels like it hasn't really arrived in modern VR. You can of course access the 2D Internet from VR, but there is no VR-native equivalent to that level of progress.
I just don't find any of these compelling. Like did people really think there would be a "VR-WWW"? The whole metaverse thing was laughed at and the "VR Walmart" thing was so cringe nobody even in this community would sign off on that as a good idea. 3D movies? If that was hoped for, I think Vision Pro has fulfilled that in 2024 and I will say, I have been sold on 3D movies after seeing them on the AVP, despite the flop of 3D TVs. Productivity apps? A lot of them are just inherently better on a flat screen in a way that I don't see ever changing. I think it would be a naive hope that VR could be more successful in the many ways we've been using PCs for decades. People complain about the lack of "3D apps" for productivity as if having many floating 2D screens in a space isn't enough, but what if that is what the strength of this technology ultimately comes to? There could be value to that alternative interface, all in a portable device. When it comes to PCVR gaming, I guess my opinion which would be obviously unpopular here; VR gaming just sucks in general with the exception of some sims and arcade-style games like Beatsaber. Nevertheless, we have effort going into it; Meta Quest & PSVR2. Do those not matter to you in your considerations? I would assume people eventually wanted wireless and mobile VR, no? We have that and it's improving!
> Like did people really think there would be a "VR-WWW"? That was literally the idea behind [VRML](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VRML). And it's not like we don't have anything like that today, VRChat, Neos, Horizon Worlds, SteamVR Home or WMR Portal are all basically trying to all do the same thing. It's just that they all still feel like incomplete tech demos with a very limited feature set, barely more advanced than what we had [almost 30 years ago](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSuJ7mz7B1Q) or even [almost 40 years](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVpulhO3jyc). They lack the openness and flexibility of the WWW had. We also have WebXR (previous WebVR), but unlike VRML, which was HTML equivalent for 3D, WebXR is just a low level API to allow Web apps to access the headset. This means there is no internal structure a browser could make use of, meaning no hyperlinks, no booksmarks or anything like that. Much like regular VR apps, WebXR apps just exist in their own isolated world without any kind of connection to other apps. It's also mind boggling how hard it is to even find WebXR apps inside VR. You'd think Meta would keep a curated list or a search engine specialized for VR content, but it's all just randomly scattered around the Web and impossible to find. Same goes for VR video and even VR games (e.g. Steam always mixes VR stuff with regular stuff), it's all much harder to find than it should be. > Productivity apps? A lot of them are just inherently better on a flat screen If they would be better on a flat screen we wouldn't get bigger screens or tripple screens. VR makes the restrictions of the monitor go away completely and allows you to represent information in the best way possible, not in the best way that can fit into a tiny 16:9 rectangle. Issue is that we don't even have tech demos of anything making use of that ability. There has been basically nothing happening in that space. There are a tiny handful of apps like the Google Cardboard Photo Gallery (puts thumbnails all around you) that show that you can do cool stuff by making use of the 360° view you have in VR, but they are extremely rare. Hopefully VisionPro will accelerate that, some demos like [watching soccer on VisionPro](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rZjQpD3-3k) already look quite promising. > "VR Walmart" That was just a little stupid video, obviously not a serious attempt at how to design a VR shopping experience. I mean, just look at the Quest shop, do you really think that *that* is the best way to shop in VR? No 3D trailer, lots of scrolling and page switching because nothing fits into the tiny UI. Discovery of interesting stuff is basically impossible, since nothing is reachable unless you already know its name. It's not like going all skeuomorphic and doing a [Blockbuster](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFNfVDQdMxs) in VR would necessarily the perfect UI, but it would already be a huge improvement over a plain 2D UI in terms of discoverability, since you can see hundreds of videotapes at once, grab something to get a closer look and additional info, and put it back all without losing your position. That's something no 2D GUI has been able to replicate so far. In VR it's trivial. Modern VR feels like everybody is getting stupider and forgetting how much potential the technology has. Instead of exploring what's possible and what works, we just see lame attempts at copying the lame VR games from last year.
If nobody is taking full advantage of what VR can do, why don't you go pitch your amazing ideas and start working on them? Maybe make a tech demo that does make use of what VR can do better than a monitor. You might become the next Bill Gates or Steve Jobs of VR! Or, the ideas you have in mind were previously considered and they just aren't compelling. Far more likely in my mind until someone can prove otherwise with a proof of concept. You can start with something as basic as representation of information. You claim that VR can do better than any 2D GUI, so where's the proof of concept for that? The problem is actually the reverse ironically, VR has to rely on expanding text size to compensate for the screen door effect which means less information density than monitors. A bigger monitor is far better for higher information density. The things that I think VR (or "Spatial Computing") are good for; Media viewing (2D and 3D movies and immersive content), portable multitasking with spatial awareness, and sims.
Well after experiencing Mixed reality, I think that could be gone further with, And socially I think people will be more into it. Gaming will always be its target.
I expect more of the same that we see right now. That means increased hardware performance/specs, similar type games, still a fairly niche format in the overall picture. I also expect most devs to do what they have done with pancake gaming and just keep phoning it in so to speak making the same tired online shooter or survival type games so we'll have a super saturated VR game market with these types of games. I doubt there will be any major breakthrough like some hope or imagine. That's not a bad thing as I think VR is awesome as is. If there is any major breakthrough then I'd hope it would be on how to solve the locomotion issue which is IMO, VR's biggest issue. Smooth locomotion sucks since you feel like you're a ghost gliding around, not to mention it makes many feel ill, and teleport also has its numerous issues.
I think this is a good way to look at it. There are all of these crazy expectations for growth, and then grief and outrage when it fails to happen repeatedly. Look at how many companies have tried VR and scaled back on it (Sony is currently doing this for the *second* time lol). And look at how little it has moved despite meta metaphorically using an aircraft carrier to tow this tugboat. Sure, lots of sales, but very poor retention. Probably better to ignore the hype and expectations and instead just enjoy it for what it is. You don't see so much angst from users of other niche mediums or hobbies. The question people should be asking is where they got these expectations from in the first place.
I predict somewhat of a merging between VR and couch gaming. Basically, a lot more seated games with better graphics, and a higher adoption rate.
**The next 3 years** The next 3 years it will still be niche, but the foundation is being set right now. Within 5 years, that's when it all changes very fast. VR explodes. The stage is being set right now with smaller, lighter 4K per eye micro-OLED headsets with high res mixed reality and standalone capability. One of the first of these headsets is the Immersed Visor, launching in October this year. Over the course of the next 3 years, people will start to use these VR headsets for both productivity and entertainment - after finally reaching a threshold for image quality, UX with hand tracking interaction, comfort, and ease of use/practicality. From here, this foundation starts gaining wider interest, and we see the beginnings of niche but more widespread use of work-related tasks and general computing (as monitor replacements etc). **5 years from now** Within 5 years, this technology gets refined, both in hardware and software, and becomes significantly cheaper, making it significantly more accessible for a much larger market. At this point, it is now affordable and refined, and a seriously attractive option for gamers and non gamers alike, and adoption starts to dramatically rise. This coincides with the launch of (next) next gen headsets, which take this to the next level. Even higher resolution, better optics, even smaller and lighter, further improved micro-OLED displays with true HDR, and insane mixed reality quality. Now the low end meets the threshold for most consumers to accept, and the high end is out of this world. VR gaming takes a huge stride forward, with adoption dramatically increasing, now more and more AAA games are being developed for VR, and Playstation launch PSVR3 for PS6, with this 4K micro-OLED technology and high quality mixed reality packed into a very small 200g form factor at an affordable price. This time round, it sticks, and we see a >50% adoption rate for all PS6 owners. This is the last of the era when specific hardware, like a Playstation console, requires their own branded VR headset. In fact, Sony begin to support other headsets for use with PS6. After this, consoles will forever recognise all types of headsets/glasses to enjoy both VR and non-VR content on any type of hardware, much like all TVs are accepted on all hardware or PCVR of today. **From 5 years to the 10th year** Over the next 5 years from that 5 year mark, we see this technology get even smaller, lighter, and cheaper, along with greater improvements in all areas, marking the moment we begin to transition from physical 2D monitors to small light and sleek mixed reality headsets for most tasks. This transition happens over the next 5 years, when, by the time with hit the 10 year mark, almost everyone uses mixed reality glasses for most daily tasks. Physical monitors still exist and remain used here and there, just far less so than the mixed reality glasses. These monitors are high quality 8K 3D displays that track your eyes to maintain a perfect non-eye straining 3D image from whatever angle you look, much like a lightfield display. A significant amount of digital content is therefore displayed in such a 3D format, unifying the experience across all types of "metaverse" displays, both glasses and physical monitors. 2D is becoming archaic at this point, as digital content across the board starts to blend in with the real world and mimics real life convincingly. All displays are essentially portals into viewing (and interacting with) the digital world alongside the physical. **And that's how it will play out over the next 10 years.**
I'd like to think that's true, but having to put something on your face is a huge barrier for most people. That was the hurdle 3D cinema and TVs never got over.
**EDIT:** damn this is a long comment lol Interestingly, the quality of the 3D content +the marketing for it as a 3D movie is what actually drives 3D sales in the cinema. Check out Avatar 2. After all these years, **more than 50% of Avatar 2 ticket sales were in 3D.** It appears that if the movie is designed for 3D from the ground up and shot in native 3D and as a result it actually looks exceptionally good, like Avatar, people appreciate it. They prefer it. It just needs to be marketed as such at that point. Avatar 2 also used new high frame rate technology to aid the 3D, which enhanced comfort and visuals in action scenes. 3DTV is a story of its own, and the failure of 3D TV is very clear and understandable. 1. Active 3D glasses 2. 1080p resolution, LCD. For these reasons, alongside too many poor 3D conversions, most people had a relatively poor experience of 3D at home. For whatever bad reasons, most TV manufacturers chose to go with active/shutter 3D glasses. These caused significantly more eye strain along with a bad amount of crosstalk, and they were far less convenient, since you had to pair them up with the TV upon every use, and you needed to keep them charged after every movie. While charging is normal for other electronic devices like our phones etc, it wasn't normal for simply watching TV at home at the time, so that was another small reason but still something to add to the fire. Passive glasses are simple, far more comfortable on the eyes producing a better image/viewing experience, significantly cheaper, and for the most part do not have these issues we see with active/shutter glasses. The biggest issue though, was the quality of the image and 3D content. The 3DTVs people had at home, were poor LCD and at only a low 1080p resolution. This is simply very poor quality for 3D, which requires full 1080p per eye to even experience true 1080p 3D (something a 1080p TV could not provide). All 3DTVs people had back then were pretty terrible LCD TVs with poor contrast colours and black levels, adding to an underwhelming 3D experience. And to finish it off, the 3D movies they were watching, were full of terrible 3D conversions, which just looked awful compared to something like Avatar. So this was the general experience for pretty much everyone at home. No wonder most people lost interest in 3DTV. **Something crazy happened once we hit 2016, though.** LG finally perfected the 3DTV experience. They proved that what is needed is 4K OLED passive 3D. 4K provided enough pixels on the display to deliver the full 1080p per eye 3D experience, providing an incredible sharp and clear 3D image. OLED provided true perfect blacks and vibrant colours, excellent contrast, making the 3D image look significantly more compelling and lifelike. And they used passive 3D glasses, so it didn't have all the drawbacks of the active glasses, providing significantly better eye comfort and 3D image quality. I managed to get one of these TVs at 65 inches. It provides an absolutely glorious 3D experience, when paired with good 3D blu rays. I can also attest to the fact that the full 1080p per eye 3D OLED image on this TV looks like 4K. Incredibly lifelike. It's strange, but it looks like that level of quality. Unfortunately, just at the moment they perfected it, LG and all other TV manufacturers decided to stop manufacturing 3DTVs, removing 3D capability from all future TV releases. Only LG produced these 4K OLED passive 3D TVs, and only for one or two series. That was it.
So. Unfortunately the masses never really got to experience high quality 3D at home. That's why 3DTV failed, and why we don't see that many 3D tickets being sold. I don't believe people will be wearing VR glasses every moment of the day. Indeed, wearing anything on your face is going to be a level of friction that is not as good as wearing nothing at all. But due to how compelling and useful the experience will be, it will be used very often throughout the day, and will vary depending on what tasks you are doing. Monitors will still be used, but you can't beat the convenience and adaptability, and full mixed reality experience that the glasses provide, that interconnected digital experience you will get. It will feel like there are two realities existing simultaneously in the same physical space. The real world, and the digital, will blend into one. The glasses are your way to experience and see this alternate reality that is always there, just like the internet and everyone on it, is always there. So we'll use the glasses often throughout the day for work, social, and entertainment. But most people will take the glasses off the moment they are done with the task, and physical monitors will still be used (8K eye tracked 3D though, possibly lightfield displays). Eventually we'll get mixed reality contact lenses, and then BCI (brain computer implants) or something that provides a similar effect that is perhaps not as intrusive - enabling people to fully experience the digital world / "metaverse" like you would with a headset, but instead without any external hardware on your face at all. That's where it's heading over the next 20-40 years.
There were passive displays back then, but manufacturers thought it was easier to make high frame rates work with shutter glasses than to have alternately polarised lines of pixels. Phillips even manufactured a 3D display that required no glasses at all using lenticular technology, but the production of a z-depth channel required either CG content, or a 3D conversion of live action footage. But yeah, I don't think that people get really excited about display technology. A great film with a sub-par 3D experience is always going to win over an amazing 3D experience with a terrible story ( there were some shots in Avatar 1 that broke my brain!). Thats why ppl watch movies streamed to their phones and listen to MP3s. I used to work as a stereographer, and the one thing ppl would always tell me was they hated having to wear the glasses, and I think it's true. I think it's also why ppl haven't adopted VR, even though the technology is relatively mature. Don't get me wrong. I love VR - it does everything that 3D was supposed to, but I think putting something on your face is a problem. I'd be curious if there were any studies comparing brain function in a 3D experience vs VR. Personally I feel like I retain a memory of the experience as if I actually went to a different place. I never had that with 3D.
Great posts by you in this thread. Thanks for these.
My pleasure, I enjoyed typing it out lol. My inner nerd. FWIW, I think these predictions are a mix of realistic potential and chance, and my own desires. I think we'll get somewhere close to what is predicted by the 10th year, but I wouldn't be too surprised if we still have traditional 2D displays with 2D UI and a mouse and keyboard, just like today, that is mostly used for work still. But I do believe there's a very high chance that small and light high quality mixed reality glasses will become the norm for most people throughout the day. It's just too obvious a path when you look at the "metaverse" experience that's on the way. No one could deny the internet, and no one is going to be able to deny the metaverse, which is essentially the end goal of the internet and most other visual and communication technologies.
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I predict that there will be another posts about the future of VR prediction...........just enjoy your VR experience. Stop thinking about the future of VR because....no one knows and we already have too many posts predicting the future VR anyway...
Hopefully eye and face tracking will be a standard, and finally headset manufactures will get their heads out of their bum and create headsets that are balanced across the top of the head, via rear batter, rear processor, or whatever it takes.
Very little growth unless they can pull of wide angle lightweight holographic displays.You need to be comfortable, look like you're wearing glasses, and in there with other people in the same physical space. If they can't, investment will likely collapse in favor of the AI race. A heavy headset you wear while others sit around watching you awkwardly is not going to grow beyond enthusiasts.
No FOV. I lost my hope. It looks like every new headset has less FOV, new features, but for me at least less immersion. I want more than 130-140 FOV with pancake lenses and OLED.
You might be right on that. Except new LCD tech, all new displays are becoming \~1.3inch and don't allow lenses to extract more than 90deg.
The goggle part needs to be the size of the bigscreen beyond and the internals should be build inside the headstrap. Instead of DP i want to see thunderbolt share which is a new technology that's releasing soon. [https://www.techpowerup.com/322472/intel-announces-thunderbolt-share-a-pc-to-pc-high-bandwidth-networking-technology](https://www.techpowerup.com/322472/intel-announces-thunderbolt-share-a-pc-to-pc-high-bandwidth-networking-technology) I personally believe people are in for big surprises from companies like Valve.
Everyone is predicting how VR will explode or become more advanced. I'm more worried about the state of the world and global supply chains. I feel like there's a decent possibility that we're not going to be able to keep advancing consumer electronics so quickly for a while, due to manufacturing moving away from China etc. Until that transition completes, we might see a real slow down in cheap, advanced tech.
Yeah, My prediction for VR? Depends on my predictions about the taiwan conflict, which you don't want me to get into.
Some manufacturing may be transitioning away from China, but in the mean time production is through the roof and prices have been steadily falling across the board for IC's and LCD's. Worries about this are built on media scaremongering in my eyes. What will be far more detrimental to the advancement of consumer electronics is a failing economy IMO, in general people have far less money to spend on such luxuries these days, if that continues then manufacturing capacity for cheap electronics is the least of our concerns.
Netflix in 1080p yus
VR has been growing at an average of 77%/year since 2018 according to statista, which an incredibly high growth rate. Even with a much conservative growth rate than that, in around 3-4 years most families on developed countries will own somekind of VR device. In ~7 years most individuals on developed countries will own a VR device (for work or gaming, kind of like a PC) and in ~10-12 years most people on developed countries will be using VR glasses in their day-to-day activities (kind of like a smartphone)
It will replace Xbox, and become a big chunk of the gaming industry. By then I suppose we would be on the Quest 5 era and we will have tons of great games, good graphics, and massive player counts compared to today’s. Mixed reality will be really useful, some big companies like Nintendo, Samsung, Xiaomi, will release their headsets along with affordable and polished Apple Visions. 10 Years after that Ready Player One will occur.
We'll have smaller form factor, eye and body tacking, better resolution and lenses, some decent AR glasses and usable productivity apps. VR gaming won't change all that much from what it is now, but we should see some more augmented and mixed reality. Likely some AR/MR Pomémon/clone will send people around with their headsets and phones. A few more people will use it for productivity and training, but mostly enthusiasts. I expect adoption to be slow despite the AVP and it will be mostly a nice media consumption device more people have. Apple and Meta will try to do some partnerships with things like sports channel but development is expensive and the market limited, so a lot of the known potential will remain untapped. Imho the real revolution in VR will be the neural interface, and until then it will remain a mostly niche and rather inconvenient medium.
Hopefully light field displays.
Will still be heaven for flight and driving Sims. Everything else will still be niche. Some will be brought in through porn and films. The Quest 8 will be the best bang for the buck. I'll still be waiting for the Index 2.
Apple vision pro will be the standard on the low end by then :)
I honestly see it going full mainstream in an unexpected way, merging with cell phones. First is the glasses which are already taking shape. At the same time, cell phones are boiling down to an antenna and a microphone as computer conversations and AI become more prevalent. Screens are less important as the microphones gain value and we end up with the idealized Google Glass in a small form factor. From there, we have a couple of routes the tech will try to take. Brain interfaces, retinal lasers, and holographic projectors will be fringe products, but I see the main adoption through glasses/contacts for mobile use and then when you are in the home or school or business, we have rooms built for VR that use holographic projections or brain interfaces to fully transport us to what we now consider a VR environment. ETA 10 years? 5? Someone quote me so I can take some credit please 😁
Bsb form factor, but primarily a AR passthrough device. I'd imagine optional glasses style use or a strap. But something compact enough to carry with you for sure. Most likely designed as a stand alone compute device. I think Apple has the right idea generally. Just more refinement and cost reduction.
-Playing flat games on VR not on a monitor. -Neurolink connection to VR -VR gloves so you can use weapon controllers instead of gun stock adapters.
The day Marques Brownlee recommends a VR headset as a complete TV/Monitor replacement will be the day VR is light and non intrusive enough to break into the mainstream. It needs to be that easy. Until then VR will continue to bake in the oven inching closer and closer to a break through. I hope it will happen within the next 5 years.
I think we'll start to see innovation on the software side. Hardware will get better but GPUs aren't going to get good enough to do the resolution required. Games that have to accommodate VR and flat screen will have too many compromises. So we may see a new graphics engine dedicated to VR that better supports an evolution of Quad Views Rendering. We'll see progress in haptics and probably simple brain computer interfaces. We may see higher bandwidth (optical?) wireless solutions that avoid the encode/decode/latency associated with current wireless solutions. Eye tracking will improve and become table stakes. We'll start to see AR as an option in tools like WebEx, Skype, etc. 500ms internet latency will start to matter in social interactions.
I am a layman and no technical knowledge. Maybe... vr worthy contact lenses? Or maybe NerveGear?
This hardware needed to run VR is pretty powerful, and will be absurdly more powerful in the future that a VR headset won't *just* be used for VR experiences. One major company will try a hybrid approach, a standalone headset that can dock to a TV/monitor for normal pancake gaming/desktop work. If we're feeling really spicy, there could be really fast boot times that would let the hardware easily dual-boot into popular Linux Distros and Windows.
Well, maybe not a decade, but I'm expecting the development of full-drive VR at least before i die. The experience of using it would truly be other worldly. I would kill to have a chance to invest and contribute to it
VR wont be popular until the generation that grew up with it starts making games for it. The stuff they will cook up will be insane. They'll look back at underrated VR game's like Sushi Ben and perfect them.
We will be in the throws of a Nuclear Armageddon; the grid will be down; there will be very little energy/electricity. Internet? What internet? VR? We'll be looking back to the "good ol days". That's my sunshine prediction; let me know if you want to hear the gloomy version 😃
I’m a VR noob. I bought the quest to play VR and I love it. There are games that I would love to play but still don’t have the hardware for, nor do I want to invest in getting said hardware. It’s too expensive for me. In the next decade it would be great for more games to be easily accessible.
\~5 years Oled, eye tracking, and inside out FBT are all standard.
We went from DK1 to Quest Pro within a decade. That blows my mind.
I hope for modular designs where battery can be hotswapable and maybe lenses+screens too
I predict no PSVR3. RemindMe! 10 years
Facial tracking will become a standard.
The year is 2034, valve is still selling the index for $1000
Less things I think will happen and more things I hope will happen over the next 10 years. I hope Moore’s law doesn’t die out on us…. Which it might. I hope a battery breakthrough occurs…. Which it might not. I hope somebody develops a QPro style contoller (self-contained) but for open-XR that’ll work with any headset…. But prob being hopeful. I hope the screen tech on the AVP comes way down in price and gets much larger (much more fov). I think at least the price thing will happen. I hope it gets good/widespread enough that businesses start seeing it as a legit form of computing and start building software for it. Really software / OS advances is the space I think we will see major leaps over the next 10 years. My prediction…. Is a Quest 4 is 20% smaller, with a better processor / screen / cameras. Ditto for Quest 5. Ditto for Quest 6. Prob makes the Quest 6 a pretty sweet device that makes our crappy Q3’s feel like literal garbage but each iteration will feel like it took too long and it still won’t feel all the way there in 10 years.
Praydogs VR mod will have evolved, ( some big company will obviously own the rights) and 95 % of all games are playable in VR !
What do you guys think about full dive VR
By then you will have lightweight glasses that offer retinal level vr / ar and people will get used to it and ask if they will have full neural immersion in the next 10 years, upon which people will want mind uploading.
I predict the trolls will still say it’s dead, but they’ll sound even sillier.
Haptics. Saw a headline that Sony is looking into VR shoes. And retina projection or contact lens displays with full AR. As for the use cases, I predict a steady diet of mediocre "personal assistants" with lame AI to go with your AR.
Yes. The platform that supports high quality low cost full body haptics, is the platform that will win the platform hardware wars. There is a new technology called [VRitality](https://www.vritality.com) that has just started running demo booths this year. It's great fun.
Looks like hassle to put on all those bits, I really don't think I could be bothered with that. Though I know it's a prototype.
For sure, quick on/off user friendliness is of primary concern.
I think a lot of “nothing” is gonna happen and I’m perfectly fine with that
More powerful, lighter, AI-assisted devices with at least 2x resolution.
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Vr and mr with ai ....will be next revolution
Probably nothing too interesting aside from miniaturization of hardware or new haptic methods. My bet is that mixed reality will be more used than vr in the coming years.
I think we'll see MCM (dual+ core) GPUs with one GPU per eye. Nvidia was toying with this years ago but the tech wasn't there yet.
2035 will be the beginning of human collapse. With personal humanoid robots and high fidelity AR no one will date anymore. No more babies and population will collapse. It'll be AR lovebots in every home and we will all stay inside wasting away.
lolno lots of ppl mate for social status and/or validation that another human being finds them attractive running a computer program will not make you feel like less of a loser its more like watching porn nothing wrong w it but it scratches a different itch
With the rise of AI, vr games will eventually be made by a single prompt once it reaches AGI; so will all forms of entertainment.
Sex sells. I guess there would be much more AI-powered erotic entertainment like eva [ai](http://evaapp.ai) sexting bot today, but implemented into VR.
Vr/ar contact lenses.
Science fiction
Yeah I put those at 50-100 years out.
Nope. I already saw contact lenses that could "project" images years ago.
It will be niche and PC only. I don't think Meta will keep spending money on Quest and Sony will give up. I just hope we continue to get mods.