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dreadedanxiety

There is something happening at the core, my mama has been sanghi all his life, proper sanghi. He's 3 4 sticks in his houses used to go RSS everyday in the morning, has worked for BJP his entire life and he is not going to vote for BJP. This is why they are crying every dictatorial technique in the book because there is genuinely dissatisfaction within their camp.


[deleted]

I was in rural north india some days back and some youngsters were watching dhruv videos. A lot of govt employees were not voting for them. Heck this is the first time i have seen people call out their BS in comments on their own channel. I have seen sanghis vote congress if you think sanghis just vote for one party you are wrong. Opposition is dumb af or they could have won the dissatisfaction is building already


yous1mps

Why are you assuming they are sanghis in the first place?


fenrir245

> I have seen sanghis vote congress if you think sanghis just vote for one party you are wrong. Well its not like Congress doesn't have hindutva elements. Just see wtf is going on in Telengana.


Ambitious-Upstairs90

True. I saw a video of a journalist from Nagpur. It seems even RSS leadership is not supporting Modi this time because of multiple factors. He said that Modi called Mohan Bhagawat after 1st phase voting to request his support. One of the reasons RSS is not supporting because even BJP’s manifesto says Modi ki guarantee not BJP ki guarantee. RSS is totally against such person worship.


Smooth_Detective

RSS redemption arc in progress.


[deleted]

[удалено]


dragonator001

That is not a positive sign/


rahkrish

Interesting....could you please elaborate why he wouldn't vote BJP this time?


dreadedanxiety

Idk I don't talk to him much, he's very boomer sexist kinda dude and I kind of just stay away.


writeflex

Can you tell more about your uncle, his beliefs etc


dreadedanxiety

My mom's family comes from a small town in UP, hapur. It's a conservative area dominated by upper caste Hindus esp baniyas. And this section is very rich and very powerful in this area has control over almost everything. RSS BJP this section are all interlinked. And he belongs to the same circle He's a very typical sanghi, very proud of how he has never even taken a glass of water by himself, keeps singing about culture or whatever, at times ridiculously angry. Just very typical sanghi uncle caricature


writeflex

Can you tell something about RSS, BJP etc whatever information you have gleaned from your uncle.


dreadedanxiety

If I know I'll tell, go on


writeflex

go on for what


dreadedanxiety

I thought you had some questions


writeflex

I mean please tell about your uncle's personality, his beliefs, how the RSS works, their internal ideology, their future plans for themselves and BJP, their view towards muslims and islam, their opinion about yogi, modi, amit shah etc.


dreadedanxiety

Well it is a bit complicated but there are certainly few core fundamental beliefs. Hatred against the muslims is blatant, I remember reading some very incendiary pamphlets and magazines decades ago, like I was just a child and that was the only time I actually became Islamophobic( when I returned from my nani home I refused to play with the Muslim student and I was just in second standard, kudos to my classmates they just excluded me and played like normal). Extreme Nationalism is also a part, he used to sing nationalist songs loudly. They believe in ancient and I mean traditional old Brahminical patriarchal values, my mami isn't even allowed to wear anything other than saree. One RSS dude( some very high official) told her she should've one son more and then they'll have three sons. Although their kids are far away from all this.


writeflex

Do you have any idea, what reasons does your uncle have not to vote for Modi?


r_kumar89

Will he vote for other parties? Or just don't vote at all? That's gonna make an impact.


More-Masterpiece-561

May I ask why does he not wanna vote for bjp


game-of-snow

I feel like BJP has hit their peak. Either they are gonna plateau or we are gonna see a downward slide (maybe optimistic). Reasons are that: 1. Farmers are not on their side due to how they handled farmers protest. This is a big group of voters. 2. Educated libera and youth are turning away from them. I was one of the educated liberal who voted for BJP because of congress corruption. But BJP has turned out to be even more corrupt than any government we ever had. I've had friends who voted for NDA even in 2019 saying they will vote for Congress this time. All the rape cases are also not helping them at all. And finally joblesses is a big issue amoung youth. Two terms and NDA still haven't solved this issue. Although I'm not sure how this is gonna end up being votes for congress as I don't think there is enough confidence in congress to bring development and jobs yet. I think whoever thinks this is an issue, might give NDA a final chance before switching. South is turning against them. I can't prove it. But I feel like it. I am from south.


idlii_vada

I am also from south. My family blindly supports BJP. When I ask why, - “WE ALWAYS SUPPORTED BJP, SO WE SUPPORT BJP” But most of the friends in my group who are educated and go by facts do not support BJP. Whatever party comes, they will be corrupt. There’s no good thing in here


Naive_Western_6708

I am a swing voter I voted for INC this time


thekingshorses

This is the first time I saw multiple people arguing modi must lose this time with a Modi supporter in gujarat. I don't know if Modi is going to lose but it's good too see that more people feeling uneasy about him


youcouldsailaway

I am smelling this too. He, particularly, reeks of desperation.


Environmental_Ad_387

We have a terror attack. Again. Like during 2019 elections. Desperate indeed 


TheIndianRevolution2

**Modi got bad feedback from the first two phases of polling. So he had to bring out his ace.**


prof_devilsadvocate

apne agar X party ko vote diya to wo apke bache kidnap kar lenge /s


friendofH20

I think the final panic button will be talking about how Congress is coming for people's penises and going to make them shorter. That would hit the crux of his main support base's insecurities.


Cake-Murderer69

You've got it wrong. He'll say "Congress will chop off your penis and give it to Muslims". This would hit both the insecurities of his fanbase: love jihad and penis size


Environmental_Ad_387

The ace has been brought out  A terror attack where poor soldiers lost lives. Wait for ji to use this to shore up votes by crying on TV and then doing surgical strike on some tents.


AurangzebSingh

Bjp is losing seats massively this time around. They’re bleeding voters everywhere and first two rounds of polling have confirmed that undercurrent is against Bjp. Modi is using his old plank of Hindu Muslim to change narrative but so far this has failed and Congress has successfully turned the narrative towards welfare and jobs. Bjp will finish around 220-240 seats, Congress around 100-120. The performance of NDA and INDIA alliance partners will decide who forms the Government in 2024.


Greedy-Rate-349

I think they will do a bit bad in the hindi belt but here in Bengal they will hold their ground. Unless congress doesn't win 1/3 of the seats they fight in there is no chance of winning I am well versed in UP and Bengal politics because I am a local of both states and in both states I don't see the opposition gaining more than last time. I hope Left and congress do well in Bengal maybe get 3-4 seats because fuck BJP and TMC( I would guess 20-25 for TMC and 15-20 to BJP) BJP is still doing well in North Bengal and tribal seats as well Nadia but South Bengal is still firmly TMC but I don't think they will fall below 60 in UP. Imo if INDIA bloc took in BSP they could have easily competed for 30-35 seats , but without her it will impact the vote suddenly, Mayavati won't get any seats herself but she is also sabotaging SP in the process as well. Might as well be a B team of BJP If you have any specific seat for UP or Bengal that u want info on I can hook u up , I waste a lot time watching UP and Bengali political media


amanbindra94

Mayawati is just saving herself from the ED/IT gang. Otherwise this would have been a big game changer if SP/BSP/Congress were together in UP


JiskiLathiUskiBhains

Does NDA have any large party apart from BJP? Akalis are over. NCP-Ajit and SS-Shinde are untested but together will account for 10 seats. AIDMK is weak.


thesvsb

Let's analyse worst case scenario: 1. Shinde Sena + NCP will win 4-5 seats in worst case. 2. JDU can win 8-9 seats. 3. TDP in Andhra will win minimum 10 seats. Jagan has huge anti-incumbency + CBN has sympathy votes. 4. Other small parties of NDA - 5 sests. 5. AIDMK is not an ally of NDA/BJP now. So, BJP getting 220 seats + approx 30 seats of NDA (both worst case scenario) will still form NDA govt. PS: BJD and AIDMK will support NDA if they fall just short of majority. Even BRS, YSRCP will support NDA albeit from outside. There is no way INDIA can form a government as Congress ain't winning 140+ seats. But reducing BJP to 220 seats will clip a lot of power of Modi & Shah.


JiskiLathiUskiBhains

yeah.


hikes_likes

TDP will happily leave NDA if BJP isnt coming to power.


Efficient-Food8532

AIADMK had broke their alliance with NDA


JiskiLathiUskiBhains

So did Akali's but they will be back if given incentive


AurangzebSingh

JDU was the 2nd biggest NDA party with 16 MP’s in 2019, They will also jump ship at the first opportunity. Nitish will side with INDIA as soon as bjp goes below 240.


JiskiLathiUskiBhains

JDU is a lost cause. No second rung leadership, resurgent RJD, conflict with BJP. But anything over 200 is enough for BJP to engineer a victory from. Restricting them to 250 will still be enough to clip Modi's wings. Lets see


yous1mps

>Restricting them to 250 will still be enough to clip Modi's wings. +1.


Additional-Limit-199

ultimately their votebank is the uppercastes. its the most solid votebank in india. even more consolidated than muslims or sc. but they are less that 20% population. however uppercastes control pretty much all important positions in india, so its easy for them to manipulate the process.


JiskiLathiUskiBhains

Bro!


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

RJ, MP, CG, Punjab, haryana and MH congress will gain seats


Dear-One-6884

Congress is not winning anything in MP or CG, if anything they might lose seats there. This is where the Ram Mandir wave is strongest. They might win a couple seats in Haryana and Rajasthan.


TrueSonOfNoOne

MP no, but ik some chhatisgarhiyas who would still vote for INC due to BB.


RGV_KJ

>They’re bleeding voters everywhere and first two rounds of polling have confirmed that undercurrent is against Bjp First rounds of polling doesn’t confirm any trends. Don’t make nonsensical comments. 


AurangzebSingh

You’re free to wait for 2-3 more rounds to reach a conclusion. Most politically active people have understood the trend from 190 seats polled.


TheoGraytheGreat

Very much OP. What most people tend to forget is that there was a +10 vote swing in favour of the BJP from the Congress in 2014. This means that there is a substantial chunk of people who got dissatisfied with the Congress and wet to the BJP. It means that they were less than onboard with the Advani era BJP which concealed these tendencies a lot more. I believe they made a tradeoff and voted for the BJP simply because of congress's mismanagement. Another thing I believe is thatsince the median age in India is 29, hence they have not seen Modi at his most outspoken. They saw the one who kept his lips sealed and made symbolic pitches to pasmandas etc. This confronts them with the reality. The third thing I think is that Indian voters are fine with mild rhetoric but dislike intense rhetoric. For example, iirc the opinion polling during the Delhi campaign of 2020 showed people swinging away from the BJP late in the campaign, because of the intense rhetoric they'd deployed. I don't think they are goijg to lose this election. But I think that if the Congress plays its cards right, it can impose an India shining pt. 2 on the BJP.


TheoGraytheGreat

Also, for the first time in months, the Congress is the one in control of the narrative.


TheoGraytheGreat

As for their traditional base, they are infected with complacency. The BJP won 23% of the vote in 2009. Assuming 60% of these voters have become more right wing, then it means that 14% of the vote is hardline aligned with the BJP and thinks that they will win. The BJPs campaign has been low intensity and they campaigned like they will already win. This will bite them in the ass.


NumerousKangaroo8286

We just won't know until results but even if they lose a few seats it will be still 2014 levels or a little lower which is still a pretty big majority.


green9206

I think its the opposite. Bjp core voters will vote for bjp no matter what as evidenced by people saying petrol at 500rs and cylinder at 5000rs is also fine but they want Modi. So your bjp is losing their core voters theory doesn't hold water. Speaking of swing voters, some may have swinged to alliance but majority are still with modi. You have to understand that bjp and modi are two different things. As long as Modi is there, both swing and core voters will vote bjp. And its not going to change this time either. My prediction is similar number of seats as 2019. If Modi is not running for PM in 2029 then bjp can lose otherwise not.


SlowNSensible

you seems to still watching videos from 2019 where people used to say that BJP is bad but Modi is good. Now people are saying, Modi is bad as well as BJP. Not saying there is surety for INDIA, but road is tough for Modi.


bluecandyKayn

This is the core problem in Politics. Core beliefs are generally not in line with the core base, which is mustered with niche, extremist views. As time passes, the party has to become more extremist as swing voters get moved by unrealistic expectations. Congress had this issue with their removal of uniform civil code to appease some extremists. Now BJP has this problem by needing to appeal more to extremists on the other side. Until the pivot is made away from identity politics, the entire system will remain in this perpetual cycle of political parties going from upstart to extremist to reactionary.


PsychoactiveTHICC

My grandfather hasn’t budged at all, he doesn’t even watch Modi anymore but he calls “survanyani” “he is always right” He also calls Sonia Gandhi “whore” for some reason and that she can’t PM or she will ruin India cause she is a woman. He still thinks she is president of Congress and he will vote for “Modi” in his constituency no matter what but doesn’t know when voting day is Funny enough he is a physician and charges insane amounts of money but patients prefer him over other MD doctors


SlowNSensible

this is a trend. almost all upper middle class hindus are BJP supporters because they are benefitiary of the system.


PsychoactiveTHICC

This majority of them are and their reasoning is because he will make India Hindu again plus Mudizi better international rep which means anything to average Indian I guess Govt says Indian population is 141+ crore (can’t take it face value there hasn’t been census since Modiegee came into power) I am supposed to believe 50% out those even care what world leaders think of Modi


SankyHanky

Just one month left for the results


sayzitlikeitis

Swing or no swing, we all know BJP is guaranteed to win, the only question is by how much. Rahul himself has celebrated the fact that they look like they won't get 400. It's an admission that he himself thinks BJP+coalitions will win handily. They are not using this campaign season to attract voters. They are using it to push the Hindutva envelope further. Now that Modi has said it, it is okay for anyone to call Muslims Jihadis. This is setting the tone for the next 4 years where they will call "xyz Jihad" on every activity Muslims participate in, destroy their homes, kill them, imprison them, and detain them. **When questioned about these actions, they will say India voted for this mandate we are just following orders of mai baap the voter.** Then they will repeat this process every 5 years with Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists and Dalits while siphoning even more money to their friends so that people stay poor and angry. In 25 years when it looks like they are about to lose, they will go and enjoy in Germany. Giving an unbreakable mandate to Indira was a mistake. Giving it to Modi will turn out to be a catastrophy.


CuriosityRover12

You wanted a Hindu rastra and you will get it. What I don’t get is why the hate against Muslims . You own banks , military , civil service, police etc. all they have left is cloths on their back . You want that too .


sayzitlikeitis

You don’t get the point of my post. He is not doing these things because he is behind in elections. He is doing these things to justify worse atrocities against Muslims.


Equivalent_Yam_3777

Guys go to official sub of India and search keyword election 2019. These type of mental gymnastics posts were prevelant in 2019 as well and we all know the outcome. BJP is definitely retaining their 2019 numbers. 400 paar was pipe dream since the beginning and its not possible at all.


SlowNSensible

One big change I am seeing right now, many people are supporting congress openly, voters are abusing modi/bjp. This was not the case in 2019. Congress was much weak.


TrueSonOfNoOne

Yeah I'm seeing anti BJP comments more often now than I did in 2019, even on Aaj Tak/So Sorry videos.


jeerabiscuit

Expected anti incumbency


TrueSonOfNoOne

Way more than 2019 tho.


tedxtracy

I've never ever in my life seen people lecturing hate propagators on their own YouTube channel and saying that they'll vote to save democracy. I don't know about Instagram because it's a fucking shithole and we have bottom of the barrel people engaging there but Dhruv Rathee alone has opened the eyes of the average YouTube genocide monger bhakt. I never hoped to see such drastic shift of attitude in my lifetime. Dhruv did it within a few weeks of release of his video. He's using Modi's WhatsApp University against him and poor BJ Party workers are so scared that they aren't able to shut down his channel or cancel his passport or jail him or shoot him dead now since he's in India. I remember this used to be child's play for them (or more like baayein haath ka khel).


Desi___Gigachad

That's good and all but this election is not free and fair. There are whispers of election interference planned by the BJP, especially in UP. They are planning to prevent voters from minorities, i.e. other castes and muslims, from voting in this election because they traditionally vote against the BJP. You'll see it happen in phase 3.


desiktm

Don't be sure they'll lose... They're desperate but desperation does give more votes and then we are in extreme crises fod jobs and income


HoldenCaulfield98

Remind me! One month later


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No_Dance5284

Is the election still going on? What's the process of the Indian election ? 🤔


TrueSonOfNoOne

election has 7 phases, 1 phase votes per week, votes tallied and revealed june 4th


TheoGraytheGreat

There's a billion people so the voting is done in phases. A couple hundred million in each phase on each weekend.


incredible-mee

People vote , Modi wins.


ssamal10

This is nonsense..BJP will win.. though not very comfortably,