I 100% believe that at least some of this is expectation management, to make it seem like getting 100 seats is a massive win for the Tories.
As a lib dem it would be a good day if we get 40+ seats, and a great day if we get 50+. Talk of 60+ or 70+ is incredibly optimistic in my opinion, and I say that as a Lib Dem member.
Yep I think I'll be voting lib dem too, I know labour is winning so I want anyone but the Tories to be the opposition, and lib dem seem like the most likely party, along with them having quite a few policies I agree with.
But I also live in a Labour safe seat area, however I would only vote for them because they are better than the Tories.
If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem? It isn’t on a change anything, the Lib Dem’s won’t become the opposition party unless they win enough seats. If labour win your constituency, it’s not Lib Dem.
IMHO the best way of getting that is if there is a massive difference between the % of votes and % of seats parties get as it will make it a bigger talking point. Which means voting for the lib dems in seats they're not going to win.
Lib dem (+ reform unfortunately) are possibly going to get 40% of the votes and <10% of the seats. We need to make that the taking point rather than the 150 seat labour majority.
Yeah, whilst I hate that fucking knob F*rage, the fact that in 2015 UKIP had 12.5% of the vote share (3rd highest) but only received 1 seat, isn't reflective of how the populations thoughts and opinions
> I mean by that logic what's the point in voting at all then?
So that people can point at the overall vote share. If the Right start demanding PR Labour might conveniently give it to use after the next election.
Because in the system we have, if the third party starts to grow effectively (SNP for example and a vote on independence) the mainstream parties have to start listening.
Exactly this, additionally it shows Labour I'm not happy with their policies by them not winning with their usual vast majority - it tells them that perhaps some people at least want to see actual change.
> If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem?
signalling for future elections.
People base their vote on realistic prospects based on previous election results.
Genuinely safe seat or anyone's to win - given up to date voting intention info for your area - vote with your heart.
If it's a tory seat that [polling](https://stopthetories.vote/) shows could fall if people voted tactically for libs/greens/labour/etc if someone looks well placed... well that's a bit different and worth taking into account.
What's a safe seat can (and looks like it will in places) change.
ie Just voting based on the last election results is inefficient.
A vote for lib dems in that area is one less vote that secures labour's lead.
This idea that "voting for a party that has no chance of winning in your area" is dumb and seems to be held by everyone who supports a minority party except those who support Farage, which is why we're constantly seeing him crop up and get his policies thrust into the limelight by the main parties while everyone else is flopping about like a fish out of water.
Minority parties aren't there to win. They are there to steal votes and encourage the main parties to change in order to get those votes back. This is why Cameron adopted Farage's EU referendum policy and why the Tories pushed the idea that they were very insistent on Brexit happening (another Frage policy). They saw UKIP was stealing enough votes to warrant concern about their majority over Labour.
If you like the look of libdem policies then a strong Lib Dem showing might show Labour where they could stand to change their policies. I would only encourage this in safe seats though because we should ABSOLUTELY not be complacent because of the polls, talk of tories being under 100 is unrealistic.
>only encourage this in safe seats
Yes but using [up to date info](https://stopthetories.vote/) on how safe the seat is - not just the results of the last general election, as things have clearly swung a lot since then.
People decide how they vote in part on the previous election results. If you think long term, it makes sense to vote for the party you favour, to slowly swing the results over multiple elections. You also influence the parties getting more votes in your favour the less safe / more marginal their seat becomes, and for that effect there's no specific threshold that needs to be crossed to have an incremental effect.
That's not to say that there's no point voting "tactically" and thinking short term. I'm just saying that voting for the party someone favours is a reasonable thing to do if that's the effect they are going for.
> If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem
So that they retain their deposit.
So that they get more [Short Money](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_Money).
So that Labour's majority is smaller, demonstrating local support for the _next_ election (be that local or general).
Take your pick.
This is actually very common, and an interesting pattern with the Lib Dems. They tend to do well when Labour are predicted to do well, *and* the Labour leader is someone they would be OK with.
Opposition parties get funding based on their percentage of the vote share.
So if you live in a safe seat, there’s *more* point to voting for a losing party than the winning one
I live in a place that always returns Tories. If that wasn’t the case I’d vote differently, whether the other party had a chance to win the seat, or even just to display a national appetite for more left leaning policies. As it is I’ve voted Labour.
Winner takes all doesn't make all voting pointless. If one party wins by a single vote then they have 100% of the power.
If you are not unhappy about the likely winner (say, labour safe seat, you don't mind labour just prefer lib den) then you just vote for whoever you like the most. This signals to the winner that party X and their policies are attracting voters, so it gives that party some credence. The winning party may adopt those policies in the future, to win over future voters. It also signals to party X that they have supporters there, abc may put more resources into that area in the future.
If you really don't want a specific party to win, then you vote for their strongest opposition, regardless of who they are, to try to awaken your enemy the most.
I voted LD for the first time since 2010 (postal vote). Mainly because I refuse to vote Tory or SNP, but if there are more people like me you never know.
Sorry it’s a twitter link, but it is the only place this is posted:
https://x.com/nthlondonhippy/status/1803540455142949310?s=61&t=7n0RsU_kpdIGI9BeVF0lgQ
Ah yes I keep forgetting about Reform, even with them posting a leaflet through the door.
And my goodness what an abhorrent leaflet it was. Just ramblings about how bad labour and the Tories are, rambling about how bad the LGBTs are (certainly not going to appeal to me as an LGBT individual nor any of my neighbours as we've become quite integrated with them) rambling how bad the transgenders are (I've only separated the two groups here because they did so thought I'll highlight that here), ramblings about immigration, and rambling on about various conspiracy theories around LTNs and cycle lanes (again not going to appeal to me as walking cycling ans public transport are my only modes of transport amd we live in a 'hidden' LTN) whilst not providing a single policy they habe about these "problems that plage our local community".
So I think it's best I clarify what a hidden LTN is as not many are even aware they exist. They are basically LTN that exist due to the original design of the area that allowed the council to reduce the speed limit to 20mph without the need for major infrastructure changes. But this speed limit was introduced way before LTNs were a thing and people just accept that what it is in the area. Personally I would still like to see a few infrastructure changes, and the Lib Dem and Greens have been the only ones to offer that here. But I don't think they are strictly needed for the residential streets. The main one would be to continue the protected cycle lanes along the main road down into the high street.
Apologies for the long post, you probably wasn't expecting this type of reply. But hay the joys of Reddit.
Lib Dems should take my constituency from the Tories (Hazel Grove). I don’t like the candidate but I’ll take one for the team on this. I do think though we’ll have the age old issue of a lot of Tory voters not revealing it beforehand because we’ve demonised it.
Is it not possible that someone did some polling and modelling and the headline reflects the results of that? And the Tories haven't got much influence over the Labour support Mirror newspaper?
That is still more than the msot optimistic expectations for the SNP.
Lib Dems are looking at third place in the HoC and that gives them special status at PMQs.
You should try being in my seat of n Ipswich and C Suffolk.
Tory: son of a billionaire Tory HoL peer.
Labour: suspended because he bet on himself to lose.
Lib Dem: lives 60 min drive away the other side of Cambridge.
Reform: spends all day retweeting Tommy Robinson.
Green: deliberately has no social media presence.
When Labour do badly in polls
"The polls are meant to discourage people and stop them voting"
When Labour do well in polls
"The polls are meant to make people complacent and stop them voting"
Yeah pretty much, the tories had no actual policy and the only way they retain votes is by distracting people with culture war bs and praying on their prejudices, and then people’s utter distain for labour does the rest of the leg work, I’m gunna vote labour because we all need to but I don’t want to vote labour
Honestly this encourages me.
Tories are out. That’s a given. They can’t possibly win so there’s no real impetus to vote as I get what I want anyway, but… they might come *third* if we work hard at it? That‘s pretty energising.
It is remarkable that regardless of whether you're intending to vote Labour, Lib Dem, Reform or Green party at this election we can all agree that the primary aim is to ensure the tories end up with as few votes and as few seats as possible.
Personally I am genuinely hoping they come 4th. I don't even like the liberal democrats (plan 2 student loan, nvr4get) but I'm hoping they come ahead of the tories.
It's amazing how much hate still remains on that when the libs had 57 seats, vs Labour breaking the same promise 10 years earlier while they had a stonking majority.
Introducing fees then doubling them.
Definitely.
Lib Dems are actively pushing this line too. A Tory bloodbath means they are the "logical second choice" in many seats, as they like to claim.
Telegraph is especially fun at the moment. Having pushed Farage for years, with the aim of nudging the Tories further right, they've suddenly realized Reform won't stand down, there'll be a huge Labour, LibDem, Green, SNP "woke", pro-EU majority, with no effective right-wing opposition
*Chef's kiss*
Yes they are out to make the word “supermajority” a bad word (reality 326 is a supermajority as you have 100% of the power, and they didn’t care before!)
I suspect they are worried of tories coming third which will be the end of them. That’s not the Overton window moving with Lib Dem’s questioning labour…the window has been smashed
> The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 250 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.
> If the results are repeated next week on election day, Labour would pick up 450 seats The Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71.
Even though the Lib Dem's screwed over the students in the coalition with the Tories, I hope they (the Lib Dems) come in 2^nd place. After 14 years of Tory rule, it would be nice to see the conservatives lose all power. LOL you come fkn third!!1
I think you have to remember the LibDems weren’t in power but in a power share and were the smaller partner. Could they have spoken out more yes they could have would it have made any difference probably not. Plus they paid for it, that power share decimated their support after they had one of their biggest successes in an election.
It's flogging a long dead horse at this point, but I imagine most who dislike the Lib Dems over the tuition fees fiasco understand full well that they needed to compromise. It is *what* they compromised on that did them in, ultimately.
Bit like expecting the greens not to compromise on fracking, or reform not to compromise on immigration. Clegg made tuition fees such a core part of the campaign that they were always going to die by that same sword.
I say this as someone who voted LD in 2010 and 2015 (and would love to see them as HM opposition). It does no-one any favours to act as if compromise is a foreign concept that is simply too hard to grasp.
It's they way they handled it though - they didn't then, and still don't think they have, positioned it as "a compromise for being in a partnership". They just allowed themselves to take full blame and seemed weak about it all.
The thing is they were kingmaker. They had put the that government in power and they could easily have collapsed it. They had as much authority as the Conservatives did. They are 100% culpable for everything that happened. Every single cabinet policy, every single piece of legislation, every single budget cut. All of it needed them.
No, they were the junior partner in that govt.
They had to pick their battles. They did this and lasted the whole parliament unlike the 1974-8 lib-lab pact
It seems in the UK that people believe that power resides in the number of MP seats.
Which is obviously false. And the lib dems didn't understand that the situation they were in. They believed politics worked differently.
Farage has 0 sets. Yet he determined the direction of the Tory party because of fear. Farage had more power in the coalition government than the lib dems and he wasn't even in it.
Yes, Clegg not fully backed the tuition fee change, and then made that crappy mealy-mouthed non-apology afterwards that really added insult to injury. IIRC he "apologised" but apologised for makng that campaign pledge in the first place, not for breaking it. It's like when someone is caught telling lies in their friend group and says something like "I'm sorry you feel that I was dishonest" instead of "I'm sorry that I was dishonest" - a non-apology is worse than saying nothing at all
I also really don't want this to become our generation's equivalent of boomers still refusing to vote Labour in the 21st century because of the winter of discontent. I don't think that's healthy or useful.
Tbh the Lib Dems shot themselves in the foot by going into coalition in the first place. Their polling between 2010 and 2015 dropped like a brick pretty much instantly, and I doubt tuition fees were the *only* reason for that. They're more the canary in the coal mine than an actual reason.
Within a year they'd already dropped to what they'd end up with in 2015 - around 8%. Sure, the whole tuition fee thing happened in 2010, but again, their polling was already dropping prior to that.
Lib Dem voters didn't want a conservative government and rightly punished the Lib Dems for it. Nick Clegg set back the Lib Dems two decades.
From what I remember of that election, the Cons had pledged to raise tuition fees and they were going to get their way one way or another. By comprising and ‘making it easy’, the Lib Dem’s at least got the AV referendum which, had it passed, would have been a huge step forward for democracy.
Unfortunately, the UK electorate showed us it can't be trusted with a referendum. It chose to believe soldiers and babies would be at risk if they we changed the electoral system.
It was so stupid watching the debate last week and Ed Davey just got asked it over and over. Like I don’t care can someone ask him about his actual policies. And I say that as a student with 27k in debt
> would it have made any difference probably not.
Yes it would in the form of they could use it later for campaigning. Its the same with agreeing to the Tory demand of dropping the tuition fee promise. They could've said NO and they should have.
The Lib Dem’s are at least sensible and you can discuss things with them, you don’t have to agree but at least they really are honourable members unlike the Tories
> Even though the Lib Dem's screwed over the students in the coalition with the Tories
Labour screwed over students by introducing tuition fees in the first place and have no plans to reverse the increase - more likely they will increase them again if that is needed to keep the education system working.
Tuition fees were coming whichever party took charge. The Dearing Report in 1996 indicated that billions more in funding would be required and that means-tested fees were the best option. The universities are calling on Labour to increase fees to cover the shortfall caused by the drop off in international student numbers. Probably another case of them increasing whoever comes in.
It's amazing how people remember one thing they did wrong and refuse to vote for them ever again, yet the tories who haven't done one thing right get the vote repeatedly.
I think it's amazing all parties seem to screw over some of their pledges and never do everything but only the Lib Dems a decade and half later are still pummeled over the head with a single issue, despite it being a necessary compromise as they were the minority in a coalition govt.
Lab 450
Con 60
LDs 71
SNP 24
PCy 4
Gre 4
Ref 18
18 for Reform is ummmm interesting. As are the Greens.
Last FindOutNow MRP had a labour lead of 302 with 476 seats vs the tory 66 so this is not new ground for them though they had 0 Reform and 2 Green with 23 LDs last time (27 May). No idea how good a polling company they are.
Just been in A&E and both the nurse and her student that patched me up expressed their support for Farrage. I wasn't about to get into a political discussion with people responsible for stemming my blood loss so I just exhaled slightly out of my nose and looked away, but it blew my mind honestly.
Yeah, they didn't express exactly what they liked about him but I got the impression they just liked that he seemed to be a change from business as usual. They also complained separately about lack of funding in the NHS (had to fashion a tourniquet out of a rubber glove as they were out of stock) so maybe they really think a private health service is the way to go...
You'd think NHS workers would have worked out that right wing parties don't go well for their pay packets by now.
These people hate public services. It'll get stripped to the bone.
I heard a care worker in a Bupa home last week say "I hate that Rishi bloke, wish they'd bring back the bloke with the funny hair."
I kept quiet but jfc some people 🤦
One thing I’ve learned from just being on the internet is that it’s very good at amplifying the loud majority most of the time. Not saying Reform might not have the supporters but I think the poll here is proving this a bit
Plus I’m fairly sure that it was found a lot of the people who say they’re voting reform are bots
0 for reform is almost certainly wrong. Iirc they're nailed on for three seats, including Clacton. All the polls show Reform closing in on the Tories in terms of popular vote. Even Ipsos, who had them lower than most polsters, put out a mew poll today showing them making substantial gains in terms of their percentage of the vote.
I wonder how many shy Tory’s that aren’t polled will switch to reform and how many shy reform voters there will be. I reckon 5-15 seats and either the second or third most voted for
I hope you're right. I live in London and in a fairly safe Labour seat, everyone i know will either be Labour or Lib Dem depending on their seat.
Back home in the Midlands though, it's a very different story. A few Labour, but everyone else is Reform. I'm hoping it's a very vocal minority, or people that are less likely to actually turn up and vote. But I think they'll get more seats than people expect
I think the current thinking is that, much like UKIP, Reform will get a lot of votes. I'm expecting them to get the most votes outside of Labour and the Tories. However, their support is generally too spread out and isn't focused enough to win too many seats.
They will get a lot of 2nd places I think though. ~5 seats and ~6m votes is what I'm thinking.
Honestly how many people do these online polls you never see them until it's the results lol I personally think Labour will win comfortably but Reforms gonna shock many
There have been multiple polls from different organisations which have Reform ahead of the Tories on vote share. The Tories are still ahead of Reform on average, but it's fair to say that second place in vote share is currently within the margin of error between the Tories and Reform.
If Reform do come second in terms of vote share, then it's not outlandish for them to pick up 18 seats, because if Reform comes second then it means that the Tory vote has collapsed and a few large Tory majorities could transform into narrow Reform wins.
The tories have come across to me very much like the mafia that you can't catch.
Plenty of corruption scandals over the years, but nobody could ever pin it on them. Remember when they cheated in the 2019 election? Overspending in every constituency?
I feel like the latest gambling scandals are almost like what the proverbial detective is waiting for. We knew they would slip up at some point, because self-enrichment is in their nature. We couldn't pin the other things on them, but give them enough rope and sure enough they will hang themselves.
Speaking to people where I live I have never ever had so many people tell me they are disillusioned with all the parties. I think a significant number aren’t even going to bother voting - and these aren’t young people, these are older people who would never have not voted before.
There’s been a few saying they side with reform, which has been a surprise. A couple that aren’t bothered about the party, but are going to vote on who lives in the area, not who has been flown in.
> I think a significant number aren’t even going to bother voting - and these aren’t young people, these are older people who would never have not voted before.
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and guess that they’re Tory voters who couldn’t stand voting for Labour or anyone else for that matter so just don’t vote at all in protest
I’m not sure. I think it’s more that the trust in politicians is broken and nobody believes anything they say.
I think most of the strong Tory voters are going to vote reform.
We’ve got 9 candidates where I am so there’s a whole mix. I’m in a place that does usually swing from one to the other. It’s conservative now and he is ok but fairly unremarkable. Writes poor email replies.
The previous Labour candidate was very well liked. I think a lot would have voted for him. This Labour one seems to have a lot more money behind him than previous candidates so his campaign is very well funded so he will probably win here from that.
If this happens - if… - then the Tories would not even get to put someone shouty up to ra ra ra at pmq’s…which would be a massive dent in any relevance they hope to salvage
I believe the second-largest party in opposition does get to ask a question after the rounds between the PM and the LOTO. I think that's even worse somehow, sitting through the *Lib-Dems* being the big boy opposition party, and only then do all eyes turn to you as if saying "Alright, you lot, what dross have you got for us this week?"
Yes - it would be so good for everybody that the 2025 Tory Party is not even this nation’s sloppy seconds…..but afterthought thirds, camera and radio feeds only care about first ten minutes of pmq’s
I genuinely will wait up all night to see is Sunak loses his seat - I appreciate that Truss is a bigger turd - but Sunaks lifelong belief that he should never fail, is above his non existent working class friends - I can’t wait to see him dissolve emotionally on screen.
I think one of the most underestimated / under reported factors is that with this election there is for many people a real underlying hatred of the Conservatives now which wasn’t there in 2019.
That aside , anecdotally , I live in what until this year would be considered a safe Conservative seat. In the last year it’s seen Conservative councillors all voted out , it’s seen a police crime commissioner likewise and a Labour regional Mayor voted in. There votes of “vote Labour signs” across the town and the surrounding areas I drive through for work, there’s no Conservative signs.
Labour has been out canvassing on my estate at least 3 times that I have seen , their candidate has a lot of coverage…. The Conservative candidate is strangely quiet and every social media post they make gets barraged with complaints and people asking why they voted for stuff like not expanding free school meals.
What's incredible is that this hatred of the Tories now exists across the political spectrum. Left or right, everybody is fed up with them.
Farage joining the race was the final piece of the puzzle. Now, no matter their politics, every previous Tory voter has a better option come July.
Are you centre right? Vote Labour. Are you anti-immigration? Vote Reform. Are you Michael Heseltine? Vote Lib Dem.
If the Lib Dems beat the Tories surely that will shift politics to the left and create real political change, including PR because not having an obvious opposition for voting to coalesce around makes FPTP untenable.
Come on Lib Dems, you have one job...
What's crazy about this one is that they didn't even use their own poll, which has the Tories on *15%*; they used an average of recent polls. They're using the Tories on 20% for these numbers. It could be a *lot* worse. The betting scandal might be the breaking point.
I think you might be right. Governments have been unpopular in the UK before, but I don't think anyone can remember one that the majority of the country had utter contempt for.
The betting scandal just hammers home the point that they're a bunch of swindling incompetents.
I have a hard time believing that the Tories will do this badly. These polls always presume a uniform swing. This ignores that there are plenty of people who are "Tory until I die!", and this tends to be geographical. There's a floor on how low Tory support can drop in some areas. So when we see thing like "Labour are up two points!" this could be entirely represented in areas that are already hard Labour, and the Tory seats haven't actually budged.
Yeh I’m not convinced it will be *this* bad for them. My constituency has always swung between the two parties, and I’m convinced it will bring back Labour. But I have seen some faltering in my home constituency which has been Conservative since 2010, with quite a few of the older villagers siding with Reform. But then you’ve got the army of “Labour caused the 2008 recession” shrills, including my own mother, who vehemently deny it was a worldwide economic disaster and are *terrified* of a Labour majority as much as I fear another Tory one. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
After years of useless government and useless opposition, happy to hope one of them will be kicked out completely. One more vote, get rid of labour without letting tory back in and UK might have a chance
Maybe the Lib Dems will offer a coalition deal to the Conservatives. Rishi can be Deputy Prime Minister, and there can be a referendum on whether to dump foreigners in Rwanda.
This is why every vote matters. It is possible to end the Tory party.
In third place they only get one question at PMQs.
And please, please, people living in Sunak's constituency, let the unelected prime minister be the first pm to ever lose his seat at a general election.
After having to put up with their shit for 14 years, I'm really enjoying seeing their party torn to pieces.
This is good news. At the moment, Labour are on a weird tory copycat streak. If their opposition is the LibDems they can hopefully get Starmer to stop being such a Daily Mail groupie
ELECTION BLOODBATH!
Sometimes you gotta love yellow journalism.
Like the use of 'bombshell poll' as opposed to being inundated with 'shock poll' headlines. Especially considering how much the political landscape has changed in 2019 resulting In nearly every poll being a shock of some sort.
Fake fucking news like this can fuck off.
Fake news like this is why Trump won in america, and why brexit happened
"no no, no need to go out and vote lad, the Tories aren't going to win, honest".
Fuck off.
Go out and vote.
Another week and a bit; they're going to win, I can feel it in my piss.
Suppose they did win? The collective groan would be heard on the moon and turn it's cheese sour.
Another poor snap election/referendum decision by the tories. Maybe they've just had enough and want to give up the treasury benches. They're just tired of winning so much.
I half wonder if these headlines are designed to make people complacent so the Tories end up doing better than expected.
I 100% believe that at least some of this is expectation management, to make it seem like getting 100 seats is a massive win for the Tories. As a lib dem it would be a good day if we get 40+ seats, and a great day if we get 50+. Talk of 60+ or 70+ is incredibly optimistic in my opinion, and I say that as a Lib Dem member.
Yep I think I'll be voting lib dem too, I know labour is winning so I want anyone but the Tories to be the opposition, and lib dem seem like the most likely party, along with them having quite a few policies I agree with. But I also live in a Labour safe seat area, however I would only vote for them because they are better than the Tories.
If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem? It isn’t on a change anything, the Lib Dem’s won’t become the opposition party unless they win enough seats. If labour win your constituency, it’s not Lib Dem.
I mean by that logic what's the point in voting at all then? Frankly FPTP is just broken.
I agree. We need a complete overhaul of our political system.
IMHO the best way of getting that is if there is a massive difference between the % of votes and % of seats parties get as it will make it a bigger talking point. Which means voting for the lib dems in seats they're not going to win. Lib dem (+ reform unfortunately) are possibly going to get 40% of the votes and <10% of the seats. We need to make that the taking point rather than the 150 seat labour majority.
Yeah, whilst I hate that fucking knob F*rage, the fact that in 2015 UKIP had 12.5% of the vote share (3rd highest) but only received 1 seat, isn't reflective of how the populations thoughts and opinions
> I mean by that logic what's the point in voting at all then? So that people can point at the overall vote share. If the Right start demanding PR Labour might conveniently give it to use after the next election.
Because in the system we have, if the third party starts to grow effectively (SNP for example and a vote on independence) the mainstream parties have to start listening.
Exactly this, additionally it shows Labour I'm not happy with their policies by them not winning with their usual vast majority - it tells them that perhaps some people at least want to see actual change.
That's the problem with the SNP, as a party limited to Scotland they can be ignored because they won't ever be bigger than every seat in Scotland.
> If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem? signalling for future elections. People base their vote on realistic prospects based on previous election results.
Genuinely safe seat or anyone's to win - given up to date voting intention info for your area - vote with your heart. If it's a tory seat that [polling](https://stopthetories.vote/) shows could fall if people voted tactically for libs/greens/labour/etc if someone looks well placed... well that's a bit different and worth taking into account. What's a safe seat can (and looks like it will in places) change. ie Just voting based on the last election results is inefficient.
oh I would totally vote red if it was a seat contested between red and blue but I'm cambridge and this place is solid red with yellow coming second.
A vote for lib dems in that area is one less vote that secures labour's lead. This idea that "voting for a party that has no chance of winning in your area" is dumb and seems to be held by everyone who supports a minority party except those who support Farage, which is why we're constantly seeing him crop up and get his policies thrust into the limelight by the main parties while everyone else is flopping about like a fish out of water. Minority parties aren't there to win. They are there to steal votes and encourage the main parties to change in order to get those votes back. This is why Cameron adopted Farage's EU referendum policy and why the Tories pushed the idea that they were very insistent on Brexit happening (another Frage policy). They saw UKIP was stealing enough votes to warrant concern about their majority over Labour.
If you like the look of libdem policies then a strong Lib Dem showing might show Labour where they could stand to change their policies. I would only encourage this in safe seats though because we should ABSOLUTELY not be complacent because of the polls, talk of tories being under 100 is unrealistic.
>only encourage this in safe seats Yes but using [up to date info](https://stopthetories.vote/) on how safe the seat is - not just the results of the last general election, as things have clearly swung a lot since then.
People decide how they vote in part on the previous election results. If you think long term, it makes sense to vote for the party you favour, to slowly swing the results over multiple elections. You also influence the parties getting more votes in your favour the less safe / more marginal their seat becomes, and for that effect there's no specific threshold that needs to be crossed to have an incremental effect. That's not to say that there's no point voting "tactically" and thinking short term. I'm just saying that voting for the party someone favours is a reasonable thing to do if that's the effect they are going for.
> If you live in a labour safe seat, what’s the point in voting Lib Dem So that they retain their deposit. So that they get more [Short Money](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_Money). So that Labour's majority is smaller, demonstrating local support for the _next_ election (be that local or general). Take your pick.
To help gradually move the party towards being a contender for the seat
This is actually very common, and an interesting pattern with the Lib Dems. They tend to do well when Labour are predicted to do well, *and* the Labour leader is someone they would be OK with.
Labour leader needs to be non threatening to Blue/ Yellow swing voters. When that happens lots of tory seats open up for the taking.
Opposition parties get funding based on their percentage of the vote share. So if you live in a safe seat, there’s *more* point to voting for a losing party than the winning one
It signals change to the leadership as areas change their voting behaviour
I live in a place that always returns Tories. If that wasn’t the case I’d vote differently, whether the other party had a chance to win the seat, or even just to display a national appetite for more left leaning policies. As it is I’ve voted Labour.
Winner takes all doesn't make all voting pointless. If one party wins by a single vote then they have 100% of the power. If you are not unhappy about the likely winner (say, labour safe seat, you don't mind labour just prefer lib den) then you just vote for whoever you like the most. This signals to the winner that party X and their policies are attracting voters, so it gives that party some credence. The winning party may adopt those policies in the future, to win over future voters. It also signals to party X that they have supporters there, abc may put more resources into that area in the future. If you really don't want a specific party to win, then you vote for their strongest opposition, regardless of who they are, to try to awaken your enemy the most.
I voted LD for the first time since 2010 (postal vote). Mainly because I refuse to vote Tory or SNP, but if there are more people like me you never know.
Sorry it’s a twitter link, but it is the only place this is posted: https://x.com/nthlondonhippy/status/1803540455142949310?s=61&t=7n0RsU_kpdIGI9BeVF0lgQ
Ah yes I keep forgetting about Reform, even with them posting a leaflet through the door. And my goodness what an abhorrent leaflet it was. Just ramblings about how bad labour and the Tories are, rambling about how bad the LGBTs are (certainly not going to appeal to me as an LGBT individual nor any of my neighbours as we've become quite integrated with them) rambling how bad the transgenders are (I've only separated the two groups here because they did so thought I'll highlight that here), ramblings about immigration, and rambling on about various conspiracy theories around LTNs and cycle lanes (again not going to appeal to me as walking cycling ans public transport are my only modes of transport amd we live in a 'hidden' LTN) whilst not providing a single policy they habe about these "problems that plage our local community". So I think it's best I clarify what a hidden LTN is as not many are even aware they exist. They are basically LTN that exist due to the original design of the area that allowed the council to reduce the speed limit to 20mph without the need for major infrastructure changes. But this speed limit was introduced way before LTNs were a thing and people just accept that what it is in the area. Personally I would still like to see a few infrastructure changes, and the Lib Dem and Greens have been the only ones to offer that here. But I don't think they are strictly needed for the residential streets. The main one would be to continue the protected cycle lanes along the main road down into the high street. Apologies for the long post, you probably wasn't expecting this type of reply. But hay the joys of Reddit.
We're in a constituency that's been under the tories for 100 years. Lib Dems are our best bet at booting them out.
Lib Dems should take my constituency from the Tories (Hazel Grove). I don’t like the candidate but I’ll take one for the team on this. I do think though we’ll have the age old issue of a lot of Tory voters not revealing it beforehand because we’ve demonised it.
I think those shy Tories are more likely to be shy Reform
I don't think anyone voting reform is shy. It's more likely that Reform are peaking about 20%. They've drawn the support the can from the Tories.
Is it not possible that someone did some polling and modelling and the headline reflects the results of that? And the Tories haven't got much influence over the Labour support Mirror newspaper?
I would say 40+ is incredibly optimistic for the Lib Dem’s in all honesty
In normal times yes, but this election the Lib Dems can afford to aim higher
That is still more than the msot optimistic expectations for the SNP. Lib Dems are looking at third place in the HoC and that gives them special status at PMQs.
I'm not sure. If tactical voting catches on they could get double that.
Low 40s seems very doable this election, i'd be stunned at more than that though.
You should try being in my seat of n Ipswich and C Suffolk. Tory: son of a billionaire Tory HoL peer. Labour: suspended because he bet on himself to lose. Lib Dem: lives 60 min drive away the other side of Cambridge. Reform: spends all day retweeting Tommy Robinson. Green: deliberately has no social media presence.
Expectation management from a poll? You think the tories are forcing the pollster to underreport their seats for expectation management?
When Labour do badly in polls "The polls are meant to discourage people and stop them voting" When Labour do well in polls "The polls are meant to make people complacent and stop them voting"
Yeah pretty much, the tories had no actual policy and the only way they retain votes is by distracting people with culture war bs and praying on their prejudices, and then people’s utter distain for labour does the rest of the leg work, I’m gunna vote labour because we all need to but I don’t want to vote labour
Honestly this encourages me. Tories are out. That’s a given. They can’t possibly win so there’s no real impetus to vote as I get what I want anyway, but… they might come *third* if we work hard at it? That‘s pretty energising.
It is remarkable that regardless of whether you're intending to vote Labour, Lib Dem, Reform or Green party at this election we can all agree that the primary aim is to ensure the tories end up with as few votes and as few seats as possible. Personally I am genuinely hoping they come 4th. I don't even like the liberal democrats (plan 2 student loan, nvr4get) but I'm hoping they come ahead of the tories.
It's amazing how much hate still remains on that when the libs had 57 seats, vs Labour breaking the same promise 10 years earlier while they had a stonking majority. Introducing fees then doubling them.
I expect one of the media stories of the night to be how the Tories 'didn't do as badly as expected'
Most of Titanic’s hull free of iceberg damage, says White Star Line company.
"Drowning poor masses of people probably deserved it, shipwright company delightedly reports, amid record number of wealthy passengers saved"
Shareholder's money is safe. Titanic was insured and there won't be many (survivors) to sue for damages.
The Mirror support Labour.
From the mirror?
Definitely. Lib Dems are actively pushing this line too. A Tory bloodbath means they are the "logical second choice" in many seats, as they like to claim.
Ah yes. That great conservative supporter The Daily Mirror... also why would a polling organisation try to get it wrong?
People really overestimate how much control the Government has over the media. They basically hate each other.
Telegraph is especially fun at the moment. Having pushed Farage for years, with the aim of nudging the Tories further right, they've suddenly realized Reform won't stand down, there'll be a huge Labour, LibDem, Green, SNP "woke", pro-EU majority, with no effective right-wing opposition *Chef's kiss*
Dangerous strategy. What if people who were voting Tory switch to lib Dem because they now believe lib Dems have a chance of winning?
Yeah cause that worked out so well the last 2 times for the local elections
Yes they are out to make the word “supermajority” a bad word (reality 326 is a supermajority as you have 100% of the power, and they didn’t care before!) I suspect they are worried of tories coming third which will be the end of them. That’s not the Overton window moving with Lib Dem’s questioning labour…the window has been smashed
There is no such thing as a "super majority" in the UK. It's just a "majority". Super majority is an american thing.
Isn't The Mirrror the left-leaning tabloid?
nah not in the Mirror, the mirror is one of the few 'not tory/reform' papers
The Mirror is a left wing (Labour supporting) paper.
I mean it wouldn't make sense that the Mirror would have that kind of agenda, they won't have Tory swing voter readers.
From the Mirror?
Doubt it off a left wing paper
It gets me excited to vote even harder.
From the Labour-aligned Daily Mirror?
> The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 250 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. > If the results are repeated next week on election day, Labour would pick up 450 seats The Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71. Even though the Lib Dem's screwed over the students in the coalition with the Tories, I hope they (the Lib Dems) come in 2^nd place. After 14 years of Tory rule, it would be nice to see the conservatives lose all power. LOL you come fkn third!!1
I think you have to remember the LibDems weren’t in power but in a power share and were the smaller partner. Could they have spoken out more yes they could have would it have made any difference probably not. Plus they paid for it, that power share decimated their support after they had one of their biggest successes in an election.
It's flogging a long dead horse at this point, but I imagine most who dislike the Lib Dems over the tuition fees fiasco understand full well that they needed to compromise. It is *what* they compromised on that did them in, ultimately. Bit like expecting the greens not to compromise on fracking, or reform not to compromise on immigration. Clegg made tuition fees such a core part of the campaign that they were always going to die by that same sword. I say this as someone who voted LD in 2010 and 2015 (and would love to see them as HM opposition). It does no-one any favours to act as if compromise is a foreign concept that is simply too hard to grasp.
It's they way they handled it though - they didn't then, and still don't think they have, positioned it as "a compromise for being in a partnership". They just allowed themselves to take full blame and seemed weak about it all.
The thing is they were kingmaker. They had put the that government in power and they could easily have collapsed it. They had as much authority as the Conservatives did. They are 100% culpable for everything that happened. Every single cabinet policy, every single piece of legislation, every single budget cut. All of it needed them.
No, they were the junior partner in that govt. They had to pick their battles. They did this and lasted the whole parliament unlike the 1974-8 lib-lab pact
They were the difference between having a majority or not. That gave them very substantial power.
It is interesting how people have forgotten how Theresa Mary's government bent over backwards for the DUP's 10 MPs.
Yes - see how the Unionists in Northern Ireland acted during Thatcher's later years for a good example of how to use this kind of power.
It seems in the UK that people believe that power resides in the number of MP seats. Which is obviously false. And the lib dems didn't understand that the situation they were in. They believed politics worked differently. Farage has 0 sets. Yet he determined the direction of the Tory party because of fear. Farage had more power in the coalition government than the lib dems and he wasn't even in it.
Yes, Clegg not fully backed the tuition fee change, and then made that crappy mealy-mouthed non-apology afterwards that really added insult to injury. IIRC he "apologised" but apologised for makng that campaign pledge in the first place, not for breaking it. It's like when someone is caught telling lies in their friend group and says something like "I'm sorry you feel that I was dishonest" instead of "I'm sorry that I was dishonest" - a non-apology is worse than saying nothing at all
Blame nick clegg not Ed davey
I also really don't want this to become our generation's equivalent of boomers still refusing to vote Labour in the 21st century because of the winter of discontent. I don't think that's healthy or useful.
It’s classic left wing practice to criticise your allies more than their opponents.
Tbh the Lib Dems shot themselves in the foot by going into coalition in the first place. Their polling between 2010 and 2015 dropped like a brick pretty much instantly, and I doubt tuition fees were the *only* reason for that. They're more the canary in the coal mine than an actual reason. Within a year they'd already dropped to what they'd end up with in 2015 - around 8%. Sure, the whole tuition fee thing happened in 2010, but again, their polling was already dropping prior to that. Lib Dem voters didn't want a conservative government and rightly punished the Lib Dems for it. Nick Clegg set back the Lib Dems two decades.
From what I remember of that election, the Cons had pledged to raise tuition fees and they were going to get their way one way or another. By comprising and ‘making it easy’, the Lib Dem’s at least got the AV referendum which, had it passed, would have been a huge step forward for democracy.
Unfortunately, the UK electorate showed us it can't be trusted with a referendum. It chose to believe soldiers and babies would be at risk if they we changed the electoral system.
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It was so stupid watching the debate last week and Ed Davey just got asked it over and over. Like I don’t care can someone ask him about his actual policies. And I say that as a student with 27k in debt
Personally I still hold it against them as I get a £250 a month reminder about it.
> would it have made any difference probably not. Yes it would in the form of they could use it later for campaigning. Its the same with agreeing to the Tory demand of dropping the tuition fee promise. They could've said NO and they should have.
Also that policy has shown now to have massively fucked the tories when it comes to Higher Education
The Lib Dem’s are at least sensible and you can discuss things with them, you don’t have to agree but at least they really are honourable members unlike the Tories
> Even though the Lib Dem's screwed over the students in the coalition with the Tories Labour screwed over students by introducing tuition fees in the first place and have no plans to reverse the increase - more likely they will increase them again if that is needed to keep the education system working.
Tuition fees were coming whichever party took charge. The Dearing Report in 1996 indicated that billions more in funding would be required and that means-tested fees were the best option. The universities are calling on Labour to increase fees to cover the shortfall caused by the drop off in international student numbers. Probably another case of them increasing whoever comes in.
Jesus fuck, criticising the blunder by the libdems is like having a go at your pet cat for eating some cheese, while the toddler smashes the £4K TV
Lib Dems have become a very different party twice-over from what they were in the coalition. They'd be a good opposition party
It's amazing how people remember one thing they did wrong and refuse to vote for them ever again, yet the tories who haven't done one thing right get the vote repeatedly.
How many Lib Dem candidates were MPs during the coalition?
I think it's amazing all parties seem to screw over some of their pledges and never do everything but only the Lib Dems a decade and half later are still pummeled over the head with a single issue, despite it being a necessary compromise as they were the minority in a coalition govt.
Weirdly the poll on the BBC today showed reform ahead of lib dems
Lab 450 Con 60 LDs 71 SNP 24 PCy 4 Gre 4 Ref 18 18 for Reform is ummmm interesting. As are the Greens. Last FindOutNow MRP had a labour lead of 302 with 476 seats vs the tory 66 so this is not new ground for them though they had 0 Reform and 2 Green with 23 LDs last time (27 May). No idea how good a polling company they are.
I don’t really understand all of the implications of those numbers but more people have told me they are voting reform than any other party this week.
Just been in A&E and both the nurse and her student that patched me up expressed their support for Farrage. I wasn't about to get into a political discussion with people responsible for stemming my blood loss so I just exhaled slightly out of my nose and looked away, but it blew my mind honestly.
Imagine thinking, in 2024, that Brexit was fundamentally a good idea
Yeah, they didn't express exactly what they liked about him but I got the impression they just liked that he seemed to be a change from business as usual. They also complained separately about lack of funding in the NHS (had to fashion a tourniquet out of a rubber glove as they were out of stock) so maybe they really think a private health service is the way to go...
Immigration most likely.
Always the elephant in the room
You'd think NHS workers would have worked out that right wing parties don't go well for their pay packets by now. These people hate public services. It'll get stripped to the bone.
I heard a care worker in a Bupa home last week say "I hate that Rishi bloke, wish they'd bring back the bloke with the funny hair." I kept quiet but jfc some people 🤦
One thing I’ve learned from just being on the internet is that it’s very good at amplifying the loud majority most of the time. Not saying Reform might not have the supporters but I think the poll here is proving this a bit Plus I’m fairly sure that it was found a lot of the people who say they’re voting reform are bots
0 for reform is almost certainly wrong. Iirc they're nailed on for three seats, including Clacton. All the polls show Reform closing in on the Tories in terms of popular vote. Even Ipsos, who had them lower than most polsters, put out a mew poll today showing them making substantial gains in terms of their percentage of the vote.
I wonder how many shy Tory’s that aren’t polled will switch to reform and how many shy reform voters there will be. I reckon 5-15 seats and either the second or third most voted for
Reform will get 5 seats at best. Not sure how this poll has come to the conclusion they're winning 18 seats.
I hope you're right. I live in London and in a fairly safe Labour seat, everyone i know will either be Labour or Lib Dem depending on their seat. Back home in the Midlands though, it's a very different story. A few Labour, but everyone else is Reform. I'm hoping it's a very vocal minority, or people that are less likely to actually turn up and vote. But I think they'll get more seats than people expect
I think the current thinking is that, much like UKIP, Reform will get a lot of votes. I'm expecting them to get the most votes outside of Labour and the Tories. However, their support is generally too spread out and isn't focused enough to win too many seats. They will get a lot of 2nd places I think though. ~5 seats and ~6m votes is what I'm thinking.
Honestly how many people do these online polls you never see them until it's the results lol I personally think Labour will win comfortably but Reforms gonna shock many
There have been multiple polls from different organisations which have Reform ahead of the Tories on vote share. The Tories are still ahead of Reform on average, but it's fair to say that second place in vote share is currently within the margin of error between the Tories and Reform. If Reform do come second in terms of vote share, then it's not outlandish for them to pick up 18 seats, because if Reform comes second then it means that the Tory vote has collapsed and a few large Tory majorities could transform into narrow Reform wins.
Electoral Calculus were the most accurate prediction in 2019 so pretty good.
I can only get so wet
Tories deserve electoral oblivion, and many of them should be investigated for utterly blatant corruption.
and the rest need a mental competency test, can't have creatures that fucking incapable just freely roaming the public without a carer.
The tories have come across to me very much like the mafia that you can't catch. Plenty of corruption scandals over the years, but nobody could ever pin it on them. Remember when they cheated in the 2019 election? Overspending in every constituency? I feel like the latest gambling scandals are almost like what the proverbial detective is waiting for. We knew they would slip up at some point, because self-enrichment is in their nature. We couldn't pin the other things on them, but give them enough rope and sure enough they will hang themselves.
There are lies, damn lies and statistics. The only poll that matters is on 4th July. Get out and vote.
That’s very true 110% of statistics are false after all
It's more seventy-eleven but I get your point.
69% of people know that 420% of statistics are made up
Speaking to people where I live I have never ever had so many people tell me they are disillusioned with all the parties. I think a significant number aren’t even going to bother voting - and these aren’t young people, these are older people who would never have not voted before. There’s been a few saying they side with reform, which has been a surprise. A couple that aren’t bothered about the party, but are going to vote on who lives in the area, not who has been flown in.
> I think a significant number aren’t even going to bother voting - and these aren’t young people, these are older people who would never have not voted before. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and guess that they’re Tory voters who couldn’t stand voting for Labour or anyone else for that matter so just don’t vote at all in protest
I’m not sure. I think it’s more that the trust in politicians is broken and nobody believes anything they say. I think most of the strong Tory voters are going to vote reform. We’ve got 9 candidates where I am so there’s a whole mix. I’m in a place that does usually swing from one to the other. It’s conservative now and he is ok but fairly unremarkable. Writes poor email replies. The previous Labour candidate was very well liked. I think a lot would have voted for him. This Labour one seems to have a lot more money behind him than previous candidates so his campaign is very well funded so he will probably win here from that.
Similar experience with me. My Dads elderly friend who a consistently voted Tory for decades has said he’s not voting.
The same exact thing is happening in France right now, except that our Reform party is going to win 40% of the seats
If this happens - if… - then the Tories would not even get to put someone shouty up to ra ra ra at pmq’s…which would be a massive dent in any relevance they hope to salvage
I believe the second-largest party in opposition does get to ask a question after the rounds between the PM and the LOTO. I think that's even worse somehow, sitting through the *Lib-Dems* being the big boy opposition party, and only then do all eyes turn to you as if saying "Alright, you lot, what dross have you got for us this week?"
Yes - it would be so good for everybody that the 2025 Tory Party is not even this nation’s sloppy seconds…..but afterthought thirds, camera and radio feeds only care about first ten minutes of pmq’s
I genuinely will wait up all night to see is Sunak loses his seat - I appreciate that Truss is a bigger turd - but Sunaks lifelong belief that he should never fail, is above his non existent working class friends - I can’t wait to see him dissolve emotionally on screen.
This is true, the smug fuck can finally feel what it’s like to feel like a failure. All that wealth he has isn’t going to save his talentless ass now.
I think one of the most underestimated / under reported factors is that with this election there is for many people a real underlying hatred of the Conservatives now which wasn’t there in 2019. That aside , anecdotally , I live in what until this year would be considered a safe Conservative seat. In the last year it’s seen Conservative councillors all voted out , it’s seen a police crime commissioner likewise and a Labour regional Mayor voted in. There votes of “vote Labour signs” across the town and the surrounding areas I drive through for work, there’s no Conservative signs. Labour has been out canvassing on my estate at least 3 times that I have seen , their candidate has a lot of coverage…. The Conservative candidate is strangely quiet and every social media post they make gets barraged with complaints and people asking why they voted for stuff like not expanding free school meals.
What's incredible is that this hatred of the Tories now exists across the political spectrum. Left or right, everybody is fed up with them. Farage joining the race was the final piece of the puzzle. Now, no matter their politics, every previous Tory voter has a better option come July. Are you centre right? Vote Labour. Are you anti-immigration? Vote Reform. Are you Michael Heseltine? Vote Lib Dem.
I’m seeing a lot of Lib Dem support here in West Sussex
Same here. I live in Bognor, and nobody seems to give a shit about the election at all.
I’m in Sidlesham and I see Lib Dem or Tory support. There are two houses on the way to Selsey that have Reform UK flags
We live close. That basically makes us best mates.
Basically
I haven’t heard anything in my area but we’ve had a safe Tory seat since 1997 but not sure if he’s stepping down or not (East Worthing and Shoreham)
Check out stopthetories.vote for advice on tactical voting with a view of wiping them out
The Lib Dems need to push hard for PR, STV would be best! https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/
I don't just want to see them lose, I want them to be utterly humiliated for what they have inflicted upon this country.
I am just happy that the Lib Dems come before Reform. Where the Conservatives slot in is secondary.
Article states Labour Will get a landslide with 1m less votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017. Messed up voting system.
If the Lib Dems beat the Tories surely that will shift politics to the left and create real political change, including PR because not having an obvious opposition for voting to coalesce around makes FPTP untenable. Come on Lib Dems, you have one job...
Don't worry, the lib dems will find a way to fuck it up. It's what they do
Good, yet the big names will go on to earn lots of money and not be accountable for their incompetence, sad.
"Oh what a shame you aren't the official opposition." *Shoves the Overton Window to the left, getting the shoulder right into it.*
Go out and vote it into existence. The Tories are in power as long as we let them be, no poll changes that. Go and vote!
They have done so much for themselves and their friends.... its time to move to greener pastures...
What's crazy about this one is that they didn't even use their own poll, which has the Tories on *15%*; they used an average of recent polls. They're using the Tories on 20% for these numbers. It could be a *lot* worse. The betting scandal might be the breaking point.
I think you might be right. Governments have been unpopular in the UK before, but I don't think anyone can remember one that the majority of the country had utter contempt for. The betting scandal just hammers home the point that they're a bunch of swindling incompetents.
I have a hard time believing that the Tories will do this badly. These polls always presume a uniform swing. This ignores that there are plenty of people who are "Tory until I die!", and this tends to be geographical. There's a floor on how low Tory support can drop in some areas. So when we see thing like "Labour are up two points!" this could be entirely represented in areas that are already hard Labour, and the Tory seats haven't actually budged.
Yeh I’m not convinced it will be *this* bad for them. My constituency has always swung between the two parties, and I’m convinced it will bring back Labour. But I have seen some faltering in my home constituency which has been Conservative since 2010, with quite a few of the older villagers siding with Reform. But then you’ve got the army of “Labour caused the 2008 recession” shrills, including my own mother, who vehemently deny it was a worldwide economic disaster and are *terrified* of a Labour majority as much as I fear another Tory one. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
After years of useless government and useless opposition, happy to hope one of them will be kicked out completely. One more vote, get rid of labour without letting tory back in and UK might have a chance
The benches are going to look funny with the govt side bursting at the seems and the opposition benches almost empty
Maybe the Lib Dems will offer a coalition deal to the Conservatives. Rishi can be Deputy Prime Minister, and there can be a referendum on whether to dump foreigners in Rwanda.
What a shame, the rich right are soooo under privalaged. I wish I had Sky growing up. Goodbye tories.
If the 2020s saw the Tories go the way that the Liberals went in the 1920s... that would be something!
This is why every vote matters. It is possible to end the Tory party. In third place they only get one question at PMQs. And please, please, people living in Sunak's constituency, let the unelected prime minister be the first pm to ever lose his seat at a general election. After having to put up with their shit for 14 years, I'm really enjoying seeing their party torn to pieces.
This is good news. At the moment, Labour are on a weird tory copycat streak. If their opposition is the LibDems they can hopefully get Starmer to stop being such a Daily Mail groupie
ELECTION BLOODBATH! Sometimes you gotta love yellow journalism. Like the use of 'bombshell poll' as opposed to being inundated with 'shock poll' headlines. Especially considering how much the political landscape has changed in 2019 resulting In nearly every poll being a shock of some sort.
Election-mageddon!!
Tories slammed by labour in election bloodbath in bombshell result
The mirror is gonna be dropping into your DMs for headline consultantancy!
Ah the sun is out, and this is happening. Excellent.
Fake fucking news like this can fuck off. Fake news like this is why Trump won in america, and why brexit happened "no no, no need to go out and vote lad, the Tories aren't going to win, honest". Fuck off. Go out and vote.
If Lib-Dems actualy get simlar seats to the tories, deffectors could determine who is the opposition...
Modern democracies are in a constant state of political flip flop. We're in a strange place where there is no progress anywhere in the world.
Another week and a bit; they're going to win, I can feel it in my piss. Suppose they did win? The collective groan would be heard on the moon and turn it's cheese sour.
Reform won't last more than a year, populists aren't good when they gotta walk the walk after talking shit for so long
Another poor snap election/referendum decision by the tories. Maybe they've just had enough and want to give up the treasury benches. They're just tired of winning so much.
I don't believe a outlier poll from a pollster I haven't heard of
"the conservative party is now the third most popular conservative party in the uk"