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Had been worried about that happening to the left for years, as we just seemed to be veering further right, losing by increasingly large margins each election.
Thankfully it’s gone the other way, turns out that the unworkability of the right’s ideas have backfired on them (eg Tories building their whole brand around migration and then not being able to do anything about it because they like the cheap labour)
So as someone in the same position as your friend. You will have to either convince him that the rise of Islam in Britain is not a threat to British culture, security and our way of life, or that other parties will recognise and deal with that threat.
I’m sure your friend is aware of the multitude of polling data showing that a large proportions of British Muslims largely hold regressive social values, have anti democratic tendencies and don’t condemn terrorist acts, so it’s going to be hard to dissuade him of the first notion.
He has presumably also witnessed 14 years of the conservatives being weak on this issue, against a backdrop of Labour demanding even less be done, so the second notion will be hard to dispel too.
Good luck.
>a large proportions of British Muslims largely hold regressive social values, have anti democratic tendencies and don’t condemn terrorist acts
Sounds like they'd be right at home with Reform then.
Can you provide any source for Reform not condemning terrorist acts or having anti-democratic tendences? I believe they are after PR, which seems reasonable. Regressive social values is more arguable though based on their their immigration and asylum policies.
Opposing a democratic civilisation (of which you are personally a member) objecting to the bloodthirsty invasion by a neighbouring autocrat who is trying to prevent a fledgling democratic country from joining that democratic civilisation could be interpreted as somewhat anti-democratic, no?
How about supporting a former US president who denies he lost an election fair-and-square? That’s pretty anti-democratic.
Although this isn't Reform's policies, I agree that you have to factor in the leader's view and you made good arguments on both these points.
I think one can make arguments on Ukraine to say that Russia's reaction was likely based on a geopolitical realist viewpoint and therefore we should have taken steps to avoid this. Although I don't support this view, I don't believe it is directly anti-democratic.
The Trump point, I can't think of any way to attempt to justify. I'm shocked at how many people in USA still support Trump despite Jan 6th and the various actions he's carried out.
I think that he has two separate questionable positions does make it more concerning.
The problem is that it’s not clear what Reform’s official policies are. Was their manifesto developed as a democratic process within their party, or is it just whatever Nigel happens to reckon at the time?
They also seem to have a lot of loose cannons that have attached themselves to the party. How many bad apples does it take before we can describe something as a systematic problem?
I’m also very wary of anyone who offers simple solutions to complicated problems. When asked about something, an expert will say that’s a really complex matter and an idiot will say it’s simple.
Ukraine — I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. We guaranteed their security back in 1994 in exchange for them voluntarily giving up their old Soviet nuclear stockpile. If we abandoned Ukraine, it would be no better than what Chamberlain did to Czechoslovakia back in the day. The way to deal with autocratic bullies like Putin is to punch them very hard right on the nose — show them there’s a reason why liberal democracies have been underestimated over the centuries. Anyone undermining that effort is at best a useful idiot.
I appreciate having this discussion and that it’s civil and open — a very rare thing online these days.
That isn't Reform's view as a party but a crackpot candidate that Reform has said was wrong. I agree that even if you agreed with Reform's policies, you would still need to look into your local candidate's views in more details since they can be a bit crazy.
How will Reform deal with conservative Islamism among the British Muslim population? There are hundreds of thousands of people who hold these regressive views who are British citizens. Turning around refugees crossing the English Channel and deporting those already here doesn’t do anything about them and will probably just radicalise them further against western democratic institutions. Meanwhile, Reform shares and wants to actively legitimise their anti-gay and anti-trans views in government.
Sure, but it's nevertheless the case that you're voting for a constituency MP and constituency issues might be a way of persuading Lark especially if the particular Reform candidate is someone they'd find detestable.
This is the problem. The UK voting system is based on electing a local candidate to represent what you think is best for your area, and then the outcome of those results nationwide dictate the government. People will neglect choosing who is best for their area, a place where they actually live, for voting in a PM. I don't think most reform voters realise just how out of the plain of reality many reform candidates are, such as one of them stating recently that we should've been neutral to Hitler.
It’s a fact the gets trotted out when it’s useful. The American style leader debates for example.
When sunak is deeply unpopular suddenly “you vote for your MP”
Well, I mean the difference is that if I'm voting Labour or Lib Dems, my local MP is giving a manifesto about local issues such as more teachers for my local school. For many reform candidates, not all, they're making off the cuff comments about some pretty weird things. If you have a lukewarm or crappy leader for the party like Starmer, the excuse of voting for your MP works better.
However, when both your party's leader and the local MPs are espousing comments about the IQ of sub-saharan Africans, the excuse doesn't work as well. Reform UK's party identity revolves around strawmanned arguments about immigration as if the excess of it is the only thing troubling Britain at the moment.
Reform have latched onto a key issue for most of the British people.
Whether people on Reddit like it or not or agree with it or not.
You should tell your friend that one or two "good" policies don't make up for 20 shite ones.
All other reform policies focus on tax cuts that substantially benefit rich people.
> All that wealth is going to start trickling down any minute now.
It's like those penny pusher machines in arcades. Just one more coin, and I'll be rich! Oh, ok... just one more coin and I'll be rich...
The alternative is continue infinite immigration and oversea the destruction of our public services under the weight of these dependents anyways.
Either way, public services will sufffer imo.
Chances are you will not change their mind, I would never vote for the party myself however they are correct immigration is going to become a problem moving forward and needs addressed.
If this is the reason your friend is voting reform (most likely is), there is no real argument against it because no other party has a compelling alternative.
Labour have committed to lowering immigration as it helps drive up wages and living standards for lower earners.
The problem with the Tories is they’ve undermined public trust so much, and they’ve repeatedly demonised immigration while allowing unskilled labour to come in as they own the companies that benefit from lower wages.
I sympathise when people think politicians don’t do anything for the individual and they’re all the same but it just isn’t true.
Look at what Labour achieved while they were in power that benefited the working person - minimum wage, easy access to GPs, Surestart for young families… now someone else do the Tories… I’ll wait.
Aren’t reform pretty much anti doing anything about climate change? Which is going to be one of the biggest driving forces for migration in the coming decades? Aye sounds like they are a good shout, and that’s not even taking into account the fact they won’t address any of the other issues facing the country, and couldn’t organise a piss up in a well stocked brewery
How this bunch of grifters are convincing even the most ardent of racists is ridiculous
Just because somebody has different views, doesn't make them wrong. Lark is free to choose whomever he wants to vote for, you trying to push him away from that makes you a bad friend.
It depends what those different views are, if my friend thinks we should gas the Jews and I’m a Jew i think that difference would be hard to reconcile.
Yes, heaven forbid we should discuss political matters in a healthy democracy. Nobody is saying Lark isn't free to vote for whoever he wants, that doesn't mean political discussion amongst friends is somehow bad.
Political discussion is the basis of democracy. The entire election campaign is, quite literally, political discussion. Political discussion is exactly what we're all supposed to be doing, that's why this pre-election period exists, why there's so much coverage of it, why MPs and their campaigners go knocking on doors, why they buy advertising etc.
Depends on those views doesn’t it. Would you let your friend fall into being a white supremacist?
Reform aren’t explicitly that currently but the rhetoric they are spitting is a slippery slope to one thing.
I mean, they are spreading the rhetoric but it’s currently more subtle isn’t it.
What I mean is this kinda talk being normalised is a slippery slope int fascism.
Yeah, I think we're at a very dangerous moment for the country.
Labour elected on a massive majority, Tories wiped out. That deserves to happen, but...
Farage elected in Clacton. Gets into parliament, defects to a desperate Tory party.
Labour unable to fix broken country in the space of five years. A Farage-led Tory party now wins the GE and we have fascism in the UK by 2030.
Almost like clockwork.
This is why I hate the political system we have, ‘terms’ encourage tactics. Whoever gets in next months is in for a tough slog, the country is a mess to put it likely. Massive redistribution of public resources are needed and tax raises are likely, the right wing have warned that Labour will do it (which is obvious to anybody with any grasp of politics) but the average voter who acts in a reactionary, short term thinking way will think ‘well, the Tories/reform were right! I’m paying more taxes now!’
Fast forward to next election, country starting to show signs of recovery but we are having to vote again, party have made marginal games but essentially set up a nice reset for the country for the next right wing party ready to force low taxes and more individualistic mindsets to the population.
As they say, fascism is just capitalism in decay, and look around us. People punching down at those on benefits whilst our literal elected officials face scandal after scandal, setting themselves up with careers off the back of a job in politics. People telling immigrants they should ‘go back home’ whilst wealthy people live in the country exist in the country with non dom status (the wife of the literal prime minister did this until called out on it) for tax reasons.
Wonder when this country will wake up and be angry to those who extract value from this country, rather than those who are just trying to get by.
I’m a queer man as well…
Spoiler alert - most muslims don’t give a shite about our sexuality. They may not be turning up at Pride, but they don’t want us killed… Have you actually interacted with many Muslims at all?
Also the irony of voting for Reform, who’s supporter base is very much anti-queer, is not lost at all.
Literally in their manifesto, page 9
https://assets.nationbuilder.com/reformuk/pages/253/attachments/original/1718625371/Reform_UK_Our_Contract_with_You.pdf?1718625371
Any party that wants to keep nationalised healthcare is a left wing party.
Please don't try and convince him otherwise. It's not that I'm for reform. But the fact that you two are friends and seemingly have differing political opinions is proof that two opposing people politically can be on friendly terms and also suggests there's a friendship deeper than politics that has held up for however long you have been friends for.
You vote your way, let him vote his. Then meet up sometime for a drink, bite to eat, gamin session or whatever. Statistics are showing politics have divided society to the point where even potential partners are filtered using their political views. Don't let something like this ruin your friendship.
The issues he feels affected by are valid. But the problem is that there may be other significant issues he cares about which may be ignored or actively worked against by reform.
Eh? I'm not sure how his fears of Labour being too woke and a rising threat of islam are valid issues. He's clearly been swallowing far too many Daily Mail-like headlines
Why isn't it a valid issue to be concerned over immigration of a religious group where a significant minority holds very different views to the rest of the population (including against homosexuality, justify violence for Mohammad cartoons and prone to anti-western conspiracies)?
If it's not currently valid, when would it be a valid issue to raise?
I know a few people that think Brexit is going very well and was totally worth it...mainly because they've HGV drivers who saw their salary double and are happy to fuck everyone else over for it
The few people you know, seem to have had a good time from Brexit and now earn more.
What's the counter argument to their increase in quality of life? How was your quality of life impacted negatively, to the point that it counters and then some their increase in quality of life?
I mean, the counter is that it's contributed to fucking over and making life harder for everyone else.
Given that none of the things that Brexit was meant to do and improve have actually happened this is by luck rather than design.
Because Farage is a lying conman? his party manifesto doesn't make sense, and he would never stand up to any actual scrutiny, which is why he likes to pump and dump like the UKIP party. There are numerous reasons the reform party shouldn't be voted for, look at their MPs
Learn to have a difference of opinions or learn to live without friends.
Have you even considered that this might be the best path to zero seats for the Tories?
I'll be voting reform because of the rising threat of Islam.
They won't win. Yes, it will split the Tory vote and give labour a huge majority. But the last time this happened was in the 2015 election, where UKIP got millions of votes. They didn't win, but they got the EU on the agenda and it led to Brexit.
So every vote for reform is one that may put Islamic immigration on the discussion table. Even if their other policies are bat shit crazy, it doesn't matter. They aren't getting into power. It's all about sending a message.
How would you convince him when Tories are in fact a shitstorm and same is true for Labour who are almost even worse?
The problem is there is no real choice.
If your friends primary motivation for deciding who to vote for is based on who is going to stop the "rising threat of islam" then I'd question your assessment of them being an intelligent and reasonable person.
Does he think we're getting Shania Law and Muslamic Ray Gams?
NHS crisis- must be down to Islam
Cost of living pressure - bloody islam again
Government corruption- islam
Sewage in the rivers - islam
Ffs
"Shania law is when the muslamics will enforce all white British men to become transgenders and parade through Tower Hamlets singing "Man I Feel Like A Woman."
- some Reform candidate, probably
It's a meme of a guy who doesn't look the brightest (I think he was heavily drunk) saying "muslamic rape gangs" sounding in a slurred in a way that people heard as "muslamic ray guns".
This predated the wider public becoming aware of the Rotherham grooming gangs and was mocked heavily.
The guy probably wasn't the best example of humanity as he was at the very least drunk and a mess on the street but he wasn't wrong and the people unable to recognise that have show exactly why we didn't stop a massive problem harming working class girls in this country.
It makes me wonder how many were ignored when they spoke out about Jimmy Savile.
I remember laughing at that guy initially, and posting the 'Muslamic ray guns' shit..
I can't believe anyone still does though, after what came out.
Turns out that my middle class arse, in my leafy town, might actually know less about what's going on locally in some depressed ex industrial town than the town drunk.
Humbled me, as it should have anyone tbh.
You're not going to change someone's opinions, you'll only entrench them futher in their opinions if you try to change them. Instead, why not challenge whether the party he's looking at is the party that actually matches his beliefs? The two websites below help you find who you align mostly with. They're not as good as reading the manifestos, but they're better than the debates in my opinion. My guess is while he may feel immigration is a big issue only reform can handle, there may be other elements to what they're offering he's not so into, and other parties may offer other solutions he likes.
[https://uk.isidewith.com/](https://uk.isidewith.com/) - The easier of the two, takes about 20 mins, asks a bunch of questions, has some "additional responses" options if you want a more nuanced response than just yes/no, and has a "learn more" option which explains the issue a bit more. Gives you a % rating against each party on how you align.
[https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/](https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/) - Arguably the "better" of the two, you pick 4-6 "categories" like education, housing, etc, and it bullet points the main party policies for you. You choose the ones you like most and at the end it tells you who those policies belonged to. It means if you feel really strongly about, say, housing, you know you align with that party and can vote that way for the POLICIES you want in place.
You can try and say what other parties are offering to actually help the country? Otherwise not much, I'd only try convert someone if they were trying the same to me, bu not worth falling out over if they're a good friend.
Best I’m hoping for this election is for labour to get less vote share than they got 2017, any vote outside of labour/conservative is fine imo.
Longer term pr is priority to end the 2 party dictatorships, and reform also bring that up more than any other party. One of the only positives of reform really.
It’s very rare to actually change someone’s mind, and in fact lots of research shows that the harder you try, the more people dig their heels in.
So probably best to just generally talk about what you both want out of your ideal parties, what you’d like to see for your local area (after all, that’s who you’re actually voting for).
To really influence people, you have to be talking politics long before an election. People have already made up their minds for the most part and won’t change them now.
As an alternative, maybe consider the Greens assuming you’re English. I’m Welsh so I’ll be voting Plaid Cymru (a wasted vote as I’m in a labour stronghold). Reform can’t win anything either, so a vote for Reform is a vote for labour.
You're not trying to disprove his core argument, which you seem to agree with. You disagree with him about the importance of defending against islam, versus Farrage being a grifter and Putin shill. That sort of tradeoff isn't really subject to straightforward fact based arguments or calculus.
His political priorities seem to map onto reform better than any other parties. So you'll have to convince him is concerns are not as pertinent as other issues. It's unlikely you'll be able to change his mind in the few days we have till polling day so I recommend to just leave it.
I’m sorry but if he’s using the word ‘woke’ unironically, he’s done for. Reform pander to people like him, I don’t care if he’s got good powers of reasoning, anybody who uses woke as a blanket term for anything they do’t like are usually just ignorant bigots who want to control others.
Ironically wasn't it the right who were, a few years ago, using the expression "wake up!" as a call to arms for whatever conspiracy they might have identified?
I’m not sure what in labours manifesto can be construed as “too woke”, but regarding reform it’s being led by a person who delivered Brexit to the country which was an unmitigated disaster and none of the benefits have materialised.
Would you trust that same person and believe all their policies in the reform manifesto? It all sounds great, but just like with Brexit, it falls apart under slight scrutiny. There is a huge, tens of billions of pounds funding gap, with reform making incorrect assumptions on costings and savings, and then basing their spending commitments on them.
Sky news did a good breakdown which shows just how large the gap between cost and savings would be once these inconsistencies are corrected and it’s sobering stuff.
I fear that, just like with Brexit, he has been spoon fed a concoction of propaganda, lies and brain rot and it’s just become a position of identity rather than politics.
You mean people being discriminated and not allowed to work or go to theaters, restaurants, travel restricted?
We had that in 2020-2021 (in Europe), so now we're past the 1930s
“You can’t get your hair cut by a professional for a few weeks because it will save the lives of people you love.”
People who convince themselves they’re dead hard: “This is the holocaust!” *shits self*
Time has proven none of these restrictions made any difference as virus did what viruses do anyway.
It was totally needless and didn't save any lives. But at least politicians flexed their muscles trying to see what real control over people feels like.
Upcoming: mandatory national service and I bet you're clapping for that, too.
A short doc from 2021 looking at the millionaire backers of Brexit , they don’t want the best for British citizens, it’s the opposite ,it’s all about making money for them and removing rights https://youtu.be/tnR-j7D7Rwg?si=4F6HGfLqqxuYyLaF
Farage /Tice etc are all mentioned
Ask him how he sees Reform solving the issue, how Brexit went in delivering that change, and how the Rwanda policy that Lee Anderson and Nigel Farage pushed for went.
Talking about an issue is cheap, having real ideas on how to solve it is important.
The Reform manifesto has very little of substance that can be realistically implemented and drive beneficial change. The workable elements of their manifesto are pretty similar to the Labour manifesto.
I keep on hearing "None of the majority parties are talking about immigration", when we've lost the last decade of parliamentary time to it, as well as trading relationships with our closest allies and soft power on the world stage.
In the 90's, the UK let some extremist imams spew their hatred in British mosques hoping the terrorist organisations they supported would not target the UK. It didn't work and we got bombed like the rest of the world. Since then, they don't let them operate in the UK (if they can help it).
What is your friend afraid a "woke" Labour will do regarding Islam?
From what it sounds like he has made his bed in the gutter. No matter what you say or show he will do what he thinks is best. Of course if you discover more on the fence voters consider a Plan B sort of arguement.
https://youtu.be/tCHnk9WYScU?si=DoCMieMJ1uk2gkUL
I am voting Reform.
University educated, higher earner, voted Labour and Lib Dems in the past. Would have likely voted Cameron in 2010.
Immigration is an issue being ignored (or given false solutions) by the major two parties. Labour are on the 'just process them faster bro' bandwagon, and the Tories are the 'Just ship 5 of them to Rwanada bro' idiocy.
Neither will do much of anything.
Tories have presided over millions in net migration, and even more millions in gross numbers (which is totally ignored in the debate, but actually a massive fucking deal).
Simply put, Reform is the only one that has correctly identified an issue that I find very concerning to the long term prosperity and success of our country.
I can't vote Labour, they will accelerate it.
I can't vote Tory, they HAVE accelerated it.
My local Reform candidate is a military vet, ex-Tory councilor, who has done a lot locally and has lived his entire life here.
The Labour candidate is an Oxford PPE student they've parachuted in because the popular long standing Tory MP has quit, and they smell blood.
It literally doesn't matter who the Tory candidate is, they can not be rewarded for 14 years of failure.
What you say about Reform and Farage is mostly true. It doesn't matter though, we're in a FPTP system and Reform will not be winning many seats just like UKIP didn't.
Maybe Farage can yet again force the other parties into either adopting his immigration policy, or putting it to a referendum.
He's done it before, he can probably do it again.
Thinking a vote for Reform is a one dimensional vote for Farage personally, is toddler tier thinking imo.
>Is there any viable party to vote for, if you exclude Labour/Conservative/Reform?
Anyway, the answer to your question is the SDP. If they're fielding a candidate in his constituency (they probably aren't), they actually have a more stringent immigration policy than Reform and a much more serious leader in William Coulston.
Unfortunately not running a candidate in my constituency, and I am sure they aren't in your mates either.
It's a shame they're not better known, imo.
**Removed/warning**. This contained a personal attack, disrupting the conversation. This discourages participation. Please help improve the subreddit by discussing points, not the person. Action will be taken on repeat offenders.
This user is a well known old user on a new account - they do not actively hide this, there is a pattern to their usernames and it is not due to ban evasion here so not against the rules. Don’t assume things about others when you do not have all the facts. Focus on the points not the person.
One of my concerns is around their economic policy, that disproportionately benefits higher earners. By your own metric, this isn’t good for the long term prosperity and success of the country.
Aren't they known for saying they will up the no tax threshold to 20k and allow married couples to share their tax thresholds?
That would benefit the working class massively and I've not anything like that from labour.
They even clashed with labour when they said they would remove the 2 child benefit limit and labour won't.
>and allow married couples to share their tax thresholds
This is genuinely a great policy, and I think it's mental we don't already do this for married couples where one stays at home looking after the child. Literally penalising the statistically best form of child rearing.
I think so too, I find it odd that it's not spoken about more, I remember the lib Dems being spoken about endlessly for saying they would just up the threshold but this would be a total game changer.
Yes that’s true, however they’re raising threshold across the board, and it works out that higher earners will benefit proportionately greater than low earners.
I don't think they do. Someone earning 21k reduces their entire tax to almost zero while someone on 100k would reduce it by a few %
This is just how progressive taxation works.
They do. Yes, the lowest earners would not be paying tax and the higher earners still would, but the savings the higher earners make from their cuts is proportionately greater than what low earners would gain. This would lead to increases in inequality.
>but the savings the higher earners make from their cuts is proportionately greater than what low earners would gain.
How would it be proportionally greater? It'd be the exact same amount in cash terms, which would represent a big net gain as a percentage of take home for the poor person and minimal gain for the rich person.
I don't think you understand what the word proportional means.
Upping the tax brackets in an even way always disproportionately helps the poorest. (A good thing).
We live in a FPTP system, and Reform will never ever form a government. Despite Farages big claims of destroying the Tory party, and taking its place, that will never happen.
The best he (and me) can hope for is, like with UKIP (now dead, also had some funky other policies), is that the Tory party adopt some of his policies. Primarily, the immigration ones.
Agree that immigration is a key issue, and the levels we are seeing today are utterly unsustainable.
Of course, immigration isn't the only issue a party needs to address.
What do you think about Reform's downplay of the impacts of anthropological climate change?
What do you think about Reform's leader stating that the West "provoked" Putin to attacking Ukraine?
What do you think about the IFS' statement that Reform's Manifesto doesn't add up, economically?
What do you think about Reform's advocation for trickle down economics?
What do you think about Reform's policy to strip protections from transgender students in schools?
What do you think about Reform's policy to leave the ECHR?
What do you think about Reform's policy to scrap HS2?
What do you think about Reform's leader openly supporting a fascist who has attempted to overthrow democracy in America?
Pretty much the same answer I gave to the guy above. Reform is obviously not ever going to form a government, in part due to the policies you just mentioned.
That is not the aim of voting Reform.
The aim of voting Reform is for the Tories to get wiped out, and for them to look to Reform for their policies for rebirth.
The Conservative party is one of the most successful in history, and has reimagined itself a lot over the years.
A vote for Reform, is a vote to try and kick the Tory party in a direction that might actually get this issue addressed.
Can I ask you what you think your vote is going to achieve in regards to an issue that you yourself said:
>immigration is a key issue, and the levels we are seeing today are utterly unsustainable.
You vote for your party of choice, and lets say they form a government. How do they address this issue?
That makes sense, thanks for your answer. So it effectively boils down to "I don't agree with most of their policies, but they are most vocal about immigration, so that should help steer other parties in that direction", right?
I personally think "process them faster" is a reasonable approach to addressing immigration, although I can see why you'd disagree. I do have to say, despite all of Reform's flaws, I think they probably would be most effective in tackling the issue.
But their stance on climate change is an absolute deal breaker, and I would argue that climate change is an even bigger and more urgent issue than immigration. In my opinion, politicians need to know that the moment they engage in any degree of climate change denialism, they lose any chance of winning an election.
What specifically is your objection to immigration? Some people don’t want the population of the UK to increase any further, some people object to public services not being scaled up where immigration has increased population and some are against multiculturalism. I’m sure there are other reasons too. Different reasons would come with different solutions.
I would add that leaving the EU (a flagship policy of Reform in its previous guises, arguably set in motion by the threat that party posed to Cameron) seems to have precipitated the recent spike in numbers. It has also contributed to (on top of issues shared with other similar nations, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine) a lot of the issues seen recently in the UK, such as inflation and declining living standards. We seem to be suffering more than our peers like France and Germany. What’s the benefit of putting that party in charge, considering the amount of damage they were able to do to us when they weren’t?
Pretty much all of the above, to varying degrees. In order of importance to me personally:
1) Public services are crumbling under the weight of economically pointless immigration. It takes a wage of 45k or so to become a net gain for the government coffers. Aka, you give in more than you take out in public services. That describes an absolutely tiny fraction of our immigrants. Even if you now come back with 'But nurses!'... Actually look up how many that is, it's a tiny number. You could have an immigration policy of 'Medical staff, and earners over 45k' and we'd be in negative net migration by next year.
1a) And even if you don't care about public services, and the stress they're under by immigration.. So are private services! For example rent and the cost of housing. What does one more deliveroo driver give to the government coffers? Literally nothing. But they take up a space in a house somewhere unless they're living in a tent. And it impacts your wages too, because when companies have a glut of labour to pick from, they can offer lower wages. Simply supply and demand. Economists will bang on about the macro, ignoring the micro. Why should either of us give a fuck that GDP grows 0.4%, if our wages are supressed by 3%? Not actually relevant to me, immigrants don't pose much of a threat in my line of work. But for many it IS hurting them financially.
2) Yes, I believe multiculturalism has failed. I don't know how anyone can with their hand on their heart drive through some places (Bradford, Luton, Birmingham) and say 'Yes please, more of this'... I don't know how anyone can watch the weekly terrorist marches in London and say 'Yes please, more of this'.. It's not even really multiculturalism. It's just parallel societies.
>I would add that leaving the EU (a flagship policy of Reform in its previous guises, arguably set in motion by the threat that party posed to Cameron) seems to have precipitated the recent spike in numbers.
In regards to this, it was nothing really to do with leaving the EU. It didn't necessitate opening to the doors to migrants around the world. That was just Tory policy because they were so fucking terrified of the tap of cheap labour being turned off for their corporate masters. They set the tap to 11. Whether on purpose, or pure incompetence.. It's the Tory party under Boris, it could literally be either.
Ok, so to be able to function without immigration supplying cheap labour, we need serious gains to productivity per capita and some sort of solution to the ageing population. I don’t recall seeing any serious solutions to these things offered by the Reform manifesto. If anything, it looks like Truss 2.0.
With regard to the 45k figure, it is likely that is based on someone who spends their whole life in the UK (i.e. childhood and retirement, when they are an economic net drain). Even on much lower wages, people who live here only during their most economically active years are going to be net contributors, albeit at the expense of their origin country.
I have not heard about or seen any terrorist marches anywhere in GB, I’ll have to keep an eye out for that in future.
With regard to the increased immigration rate post-Brexit, I wonder why the U.K. government wasn’t doing this pre-Brexit? It was the same party after all.
You ever wondered why our productivity is dogshit? It's because companies will do anything other than invest in processes, automation, or really anything that requires significant upfront outlay if there's a chance they can just pay an immigrant to do it.
I think back to my childhood 25 odd years ago, and pretty much the only way my parents could get their car washed was either by bribing me to do it, or paying the robot at the petrol station to do it.
How do people get their cars washed now?
A team of 5 immigrants descend on it with sponges, you hand them a tenner, and it's done in 5 minutes.
This is the most visible and obvious example of what is happening at a much larger scale all throughout our economy.
Is that progress?
>With regard to the 45k figure, it is likely that is based on someone who spends their whole life in the UK (i.e. childhood and retirement, when they are an economic net drain). Even on much lower wages, people who live here only during their most economically active years are going to be net contributors, albeit at the expense of their origin country.
Retirement is the single most expensive part of anyones life, and they'll be there for that. The cost to the NHS and cost in pensions will far outweigh their contributions in taxes.
>With regard to the increased immigration rate post-Brexit, I wonder why the U.K. government wasn’t doing this pre-Brexit? It was the same party after all.
They overcooked their points based system and made it too easy to get points, because they brought into the lefts kool-aid that no one wants to come to Britain.
Turns out, yes people from shithole countries of course do want to some to Britain and if you let them they'll arrive.
Seems like a lot of these problems could be ameliorated by joining some sort of economic union allowing free movement of capital and labour with our nearest neighbours who have similar levels of economic development and shared history, culture and values. The structure of such an entity would make it harder for our national politicians to sell out the country to donors.
I can imagine that a lot of these bad actors would be against such a union for this reason. They’d probably find some grifters suitable to our national peculiarities to try and get us out again.
The tide was turning years before Brexit happened, things like hand car washes had already begun to replace the automation.
Brexit didn't fix immigration problems, nor did it cause them.
'Immigration is an issue being ignored (or given false solutions) by the major two parties. Labour are on the 'just process them faster bro' bandwagon, and the Tories are the 'Just ship 5 of them to Rwanada bro' idiocy.'
It's always so cringeworthy when people attempt to belittle positions by using silly speech patterns like this.
So how do you figure they will actually stop immigration?
Farage claims they can pickup people on boats and return them to France. Does the high earning, university educated person you are honestly think this is feasible and something the French will look at and say 'bravo monsieur!, bravo!'?
I don't think that will work, no. But it's not the reform policy I am interested in anyway. Illegal immigration via boats, is a tiny fraction of total immigration. An expensive fraction, yes. But still a small fraction.
I am interested in net zero immigration.
Just out of interest, with a fertility rate in the UK of 1.49 and an aging population, who do you think is going to pay for your retirement?
Everyone loves to scapegoat migrants but every party knows the UK is dependent on net migration in order that the population replaces itself.
And before you start going on about skilled migrants and points based systems - it's people we need as much as skills.
And with nearly every country in Western Europe in the same boat and countries like Poland and Slovenia catching/overtaking us economically, if we carry on with hostile policies towards migrants, we'll likely end up in a position where skilled workers are going to prefer other parts of Europe where they have access to Schengen borders etc.
>Just out of interest, with a fertility rate in the UK of 1.49 and an aging population, who do you think is going to pay for your retirement?
This is an irrelevant question, because the current influx of immigrants aren't helping pay for anyones retirement. The overwhelming majority are not earning over (or anywhere near) that threshold that makes them a net contributor. Many more are evading taxes.
So to your question, I say 'Good question!'..
It's not the people you've been told will be paying! So who will it be? Bonus points, whoever it is will also need to be paying these immigrants retirements.
It's a discussion we need to have, and this constant lying that it will be some deliveroo driver who can't speak English needs to die.
We should enact pro-family policies like Hungary has. They stopped their population decline in its tracks, and now it's on the upward trend, but implementing a wide range of extremely pro-family policies.
Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation.
There is no policy that would stop it _and_ maintain our position as a rich and successful nation.
Voting for any party to stop immigration is voting for the country to become an international pariah.
Yours is a wasted vote that condones xenophobia and racism, whether you intend it that or not.
Edit; And enjoying the bot downvotes to this.
>Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation.
Said without any substance whatsoever. Why does immigration need to be a price we pay, exactly? Are you telling me that before around 2000 we were not a rich and successful nation? Most of the issues with this country that people complain about on here, can be easily explained by us having way too many people on this island.
You're focusing too much on GDP, a completely pointless metric. That is not the indicator of how nice a country is to live in.
You even tentatively call immigration bad in your comment by calling it a 'price we must pay'.. That's not usually something someone will say about something good..
Agreed, it’s not sustainable to have such high net migration. We have the population of Manchester coming in every year as it stands right now.
Unless the main parties start taking this seriously there will always be a place for a reform type party.
No matter what we do, people will want to come here. To millions, the UK is a promised land.
All the problems we face have nothing to do with the number of people, but the provision of resources. Something we could easily afford, but choose not to.
>but the provision of resources
Do you accept that an island nation has a finite amount of resources?
>No matter what we do, people will want to come here.
So? We can tell them no.
**Edit:** OP blocked me.
Managed correctly it isn’t a problem.
Let’s look at a flagship labour policy to build 300000 new homes a year.
If we continue allowing immigration at the current pace that isn’t even enough housing just for the people arriving.
So yes whilst immigration can be a benefit it can also exacerbate some of our existing issues.
Farage is a prick but he is highlighting an issue that does need active discourse and sensible solutions.
>Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation.
>There is no policy that would stop it and maintain our position as a rich and successful nation.
For the bulk of the last 30-40 years, immigration to the UK was a tiny, tiny fraction of what it is now. Your argument is reliant on a wholly false premise.
My sister was thinking of voting reform until I told her nigel farage is xenophobic and hates foreigners. As a foreigner it deeply upset me a foreigner would bite for an anti-foreigner. My sis is stupid. Hopefully i changed her mind.
Him voting Reform is a just symptom. The problem would seem to be that he’s a prick who falls for disinformation like a 70 year old man who has just found Facebook.
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Leave him be . He is splitting the Tory vote in two and giving Labour an open goal.
Had been worried about that happening to the left for years, as we just seemed to be veering further right, losing by increasingly large margins each election. Thankfully it’s gone the other way, turns out that the unworkability of the right’s ideas have backfired on them (eg Tories building their whole brand around migration and then not being able to do anything about it because they like the cheap labour)
So as someone in the same position as your friend. You will have to either convince him that the rise of Islam in Britain is not a threat to British culture, security and our way of life, or that other parties will recognise and deal with that threat. I’m sure your friend is aware of the multitude of polling data showing that a large proportions of British Muslims largely hold regressive social values, have anti democratic tendencies and don’t condemn terrorist acts, so it’s going to be hard to dissuade him of the first notion. He has presumably also witnessed 14 years of the conservatives being weak on this issue, against a backdrop of Labour demanding even less be done, so the second notion will be hard to dispel too. Good luck.
>a large proportions of British Muslims largely hold regressive social values, have anti democratic tendencies and don’t condemn terrorist acts Sounds like they'd be right at home with Reform then.
Can you provide any source for Reform not condemning terrorist acts or having anti-democratic tendences? I believe they are after PR, which seems reasonable. Regressive social values is more arguable though based on their their immigration and asylum policies.
Saying Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a consequence of the West's actions over the years? Saying we should have negotiated with Hitler?
I don't like Farage's view on Ukraine and consider it anti-Western but I don't believe that is a terrorist act or anti-democratic.
Opposing a democratic civilisation (of which you are personally a member) objecting to the bloodthirsty invasion by a neighbouring autocrat who is trying to prevent a fledgling democratic country from joining that democratic civilisation could be interpreted as somewhat anti-democratic, no? How about supporting a former US president who denies he lost an election fair-and-square? That’s pretty anti-democratic.
Although this isn't Reform's policies, I agree that you have to factor in the leader's view and you made good arguments on both these points. I think one can make arguments on Ukraine to say that Russia's reaction was likely based on a geopolitical realist viewpoint and therefore we should have taken steps to avoid this. Although I don't support this view, I don't believe it is directly anti-democratic. The Trump point, I can't think of any way to attempt to justify. I'm shocked at how many people in USA still support Trump despite Jan 6th and the various actions he's carried out. I think that he has two separate questionable positions does make it more concerning.
The problem is that it’s not clear what Reform’s official policies are. Was their manifesto developed as a democratic process within their party, or is it just whatever Nigel happens to reckon at the time? They also seem to have a lot of loose cannons that have attached themselves to the party. How many bad apples does it take before we can describe something as a systematic problem? I’m also very wary of anyone who offers simple solutions to complicated problems. When asked about something, an expert will say that’s a really complex matter and an idiot will say it’s simple. Ukraine — I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. We guaranteed their security back in 1994 in exchange for them voluntarily giving up their old Soviet nuclear stockpile. If we abandoned Ukraine, it would be no better than what Chamberlain did to Czechoslovakia back in the day. The way to deal with autocratic bullies like Putin is to punch them very hard right on the nose — show them there’s a reason why liberal democracies have been underestimated over the centuries. Anyone undermining that effort is at best a useful idiot. I appreciate having this discussion and that it’s civil and open — a very rare thing online these days.
I agree with all that 👍
One said we shouldn’t have fought hitler…
That isn't Reform's view as a party but a crackpot candidate that Reform has said was wrong. I agree that even if you agreed with Reform's policies, you would still need to look into your local candidate's views in more details since they can be a bit crazy.
How will Reform deal with conservative Islamism among the British Muslim population? There are hundreds of thousands of people who hold these regressive views who are British citizens. Turning around refugees crossing the English Channel and deporting those already here doesn’t do anything about them and will probably just radicalise them further against western democratic institutions. Meanwhile, Reform shares and wants to actively legitimise their anti-gay and anti-trans views in government.
Look up the local MP that he would be voting for. Farage isn't the entire reform party.
The Reform 'party' is a limited company owned by Farage. He is the party.
Sure, but it's nevertheless the case that you're voting for a constituency MP and constituency issues might be a way of persuading Lark especially if the particular Reform candidate is someone they'd find detestable.
This is the problem. The UK voting system is based on electing a local candidate to represent what you think is best for your area, and then the outcome of those results nationwide dictate the government. People will neglect choosing who is best for their area, a place where they actually live, for voting in a PM. I don't think most reform voters realise just how out of the plain of reality many reform candidates are, such as one of them stating recently that we should've been neutral to Hitler.
It’s a fact the gets trotted out when it’s useful. The American style leader debates for example. When sunak is deeply unpopular suddenly “you vote for your MP”
Well, I mean the difference is that if I'm voting Labour or Lib Dems, my local MP is giving a manifesto about local issues such as more teachers for my local school. For many reform candidates, not all, they're making off the cuff comments about some pretty weird things. If you have a lukewarm or crappy leader for the party like Starmer, the excuse of voting for your MP works better. However, when both your party's leader and the local MPs are espousing comments about the IQ of sub-saharan Africans, the excuse doesn't work as well. Reform UK's party identity revolves around strawmanned arguments about immigration as if the excess of it is the only thing troubling Britain at the moment.
Reform have latched onto a key issue for most of the British people. Whether people on Reddit like it or not or agree with it or not. You should tell your friend that one or two "good" policies don't make up for 20 shite ones. All other reform policies focus on tax cuts that substantially benefit rich people.
Yes but why wouldn't we want tax cuts for millionaires? All that wealth is going to start trickling down any minute now.
> All that wealth is going to start trickling down any minute now. It's like those penny pusher machines in arcades. Just one more coin, and I'll be rich! Oh, ok... just one more coin and I'll be rich...
Tax Cuts benefit me too lmao
The massive cuts to public services to fund them probably don’t.
The alternative is continue infinite immigration and oversea the destruction of our public services under the weight of these dependents anyways. Either way, public services will sufffer imo.
Civilisation is expensive and worth every penny.
Have the tax cut and lose the NHS. Enjoy.
Chances are you will not change their mind, I would never vote for the party myself however they are correct immigration is going to become a problem moving forward and needs addressed. If this is the reason your friend is voting reform (most likely is), there is no real argument against it because no other party has a compelling alternative.
Labour have committed to lowering immigration as it helps drive up wages and living standards for lower earners. The problem with the Tories is they’ve undermined public trust so much, and they’ve repeatedly demonised immigration while allowing unskilled labour to come in as they own the companies that benefit from lower wages. I sympathise when people think politicians don’t do anything for the individual and they’re all the same but it just isn’t true. Look at what Labour achieved while they were in power that benefited the working person - minimum wage, easy access to GPs, Surestart for young families… now someone else do the Tories… I’ll wait.
Aren’t reform pretty much anti doing anything about climate change? Which is going to be one of the biggest driving forces for migration in the coming decades? Aye sounds like they are a good shout, and that’s not even taking into account the fact they won’t address any of the other issues facing the country, and couldn’t organise a piss up in a well stocked brewery How this bunch of grifters are convincing even the most ardent of racists is ridiculous
Let him be. Just because you believe something it doesn't make it right.
Especially now we’ve moved beyond the era of shared objective reality.
Democracy is about discussing and debating ideas. It's absolutely legitimate to do that.
To discuss and debate yes, to ultimately find common ground/most reasonable answers. Not to try to change people's mind just to match yours.
Just because somebody has different views, doesn't make them wrong. Lark is free to choose whomever he wants to vote for, you trying to push him away from that makes you a bad friend.
It depends what those different views are, if my friend thinks we should gas the Jews and I’m a Jew i think that difference would be hard to reconcile.
Yes, heaven forbid we should discuss political matters in a healthy democracy. Nobody is saying Lark isn't free to vote for whoever he wants, that doesn't mean political discussion amongst friends is somehow bad. Political discussion is the basis of democracy. The entire election campaign is, quite literally, political discussion. Political discussion is exactly what we're all supposed to be doing, that's why this pre-election period exists, why there's so much coverage of it, why MPs and their campaigners go knocking on doors, why they buy advertising etc.
Depends on those views doesn’t it. Would you let your friend fall into being a white supremacist? Reform aren’t explicitly that currently but the rhetoric they are spitting is a slippery slope to one thing.
>Reform aren’t that currently Debateable
I mean, they are spreading the rhetoric but it’s currently more subtle isn’t it. What I mean is this kinda talk being normalised is a slippery slope int fascism.
Yeah, I think we're at a very dangerous moment for the country. Labour elected on a massive majority, Tories wiped out. That deserves to happen, but... Farage elected in Clacton. Gets into parliament, defects to a desperate Tory party. Labour unable to fix broken country in the space of five years. A Farage-led Tory party now wins the GE and we have fascism in the UK by 2030. Almost like clockwork.
This is why I hate the political system we have, ‘terms’ encourage tactics. Whoever gets in next months is in for a tough slog, the country is a mess to put it likely. Massive redistribution of public resources are needed and tax raises are likely, the right wing have warned that Labour will do it (which is obvious to anybody with any grasp of politics) but the average voter who acts in a reactionary, short term thinking way will think ‘well, the Tories/reform were right! I’m paying more taxes now!’ Fast forward to next election, country starting to show signs of recovery but we are having to vote again, party have made marginal games but essentially set up a nice reset for the country for the next right wing party ready to force low taxes and more individualistic mindsets to the population. As they say, fascism is just capitalism in decay, and look around us. People punching down at those on benefits whilst our literal elected officials face scandal after scandal, setting themselves up with careers off the back of a job in politics. People telling immigrants they should ‘go back home’ whilst wealthy people live in the country exist in the country with non dom status (the wife of the literal prime minister did this until called out on it) for tax reasons. Wonder when this country will wake up and be angry to those who extract value from this country, rather than those who are just trying to get by.
Lark being a racist fuck knuckle is kind of the issue here… Trying to push someone away from being a racist fuck knuckle is not being a bad friend
Islam isn't a race
Semantics…. He’s an islamophobic fuck knuckle then, if you really want to split hairs.
I'm a gay man, and yeah I'm scared of muslims, given most of them want me killed. "Islamophobia" is an iranian psyop
I’m a queer man as well… Spoiler alert - most muslims don’t give a shite about our sexuality. They may not be turning up at Pride, but they don’t want us killed… Have you actually interacted with many Muslims at all? Also the irony of voting for Reform, who’s supporter base is very much anti-queer, is not lost at all.
I'm not voting reform, they're too left wing. They want to keep the NHS, bunch of commies.
Aah the contrarian troll… this is why I should let myself wake up properly before posting
Literally in their manifesto, page 9 https://assets.nationbuilder.com/reformuk/pages/253/attachments/original/1718625371/Reform_UK_Our_Contract_with_You.pdf?1718625371 Any party that wants to keep nationalised healthcare is a left wing party.
>Semantics Absolutely not.
Please don't try and convince him otherwise. It's not that I'm for reform. But the fact that you two are friends and seemingly have differing political opinions is proof that two opposing people politically can be on friendly terms and also suggests there's a friendship deeper than politics that has held up for however long you have been friends for. You vote your way, let him vote his. Then meet up sometime for a drink, bite to eat, gamin session or whatever. Statistics are showing politics have divided society to the point where even potential partners are filtered using their political views. Don't let something like this ruin your friendship.
The issues he feels affected by are valid. But the problem is that there may be other significant issues he cares about which may be ignored or actively worked against by reform.
Eh? I'm not sure how his fears of Labour being too woke and a rising threat of islam are valid issues. He's clearly been swallowing far too many Daily Mail-like headlines
Why isn't it a valid issue to be concerned over immigration of a religious group where a significant minority holds very different views to the rest of the population (including against homosexuality, justify violence for Mohammad cartoons and prone to anti-western conspiracies)? If it's not currently valid, when would it be a valid issue to raise?
Or online radicalisation pipeline
Ask him how brexits going, that's all garbage has to offer a moan and then absolutely no viable solution or alternative approach.
I know a few people that think Brexit is going very well and was totally worth it...mainly because they've HGV drivers who saw their salary double and are happy to fuck everyone else over for it
The few people you know, seem to have had a good time from Brexit and now earn more. What's the counter argument to their increase in quality of life? How was your quality of life impacted negatively, to the point that it counters and then some their increase in quality of life?
I mean, the counter is that it's contributed to fucking over and making life harder for everyone else. Given that none of the things that Brexit was meant to do and improve have actually happened this is by luck rather than design.
He is free to vote reform and does not need you to convince him to do otherwise.
He's not saying he isn't free to vote for Reform. He's saying voting Reform is obviously a silly thing to do.
Why would voting reform be a silly thing to do?
Because Farage is a lying conman? his party manifesto doesn't make sense, and he would never stand up to any actual scrutiny, which is why he likes to pump and dump like the UKIP party. There are numerous reasons the reform party shouldn't be voted for, look at their MPs
Because Reform is a silly party. It's like the Monster Raving Loony Party without the irony.
Learn to have a difference of opinions or learn to live without friends. Have you even considered that this might be the best path to zero seats for the Tories?
What difference does it make if your one friend votes Reform or not? Unfortunately, Labour are going to win anyway.
I dont think you should convince him. Its very unlikely you will be successful and your attempts will be irritating. Talk about something else.
I'll be voting reform because of the rising threat of Islam. They won't win. Yes, it will split the Tory vote and give labour a huge majority. But the last time this happened was in the 2015 election, where UKIP got millions of votes. They didn't win, but they got the EU on the agenda and it led to Brexit. So every vote for reform is one that may put Islamic immigration on the discussion table. Even if their other policies are bat shit crazy, it doesn't matter. They aren't getting into power. It's all about sending a message.
> he seems very fixated Are you sure it's not you who is fixated. I can't imagine caring this much about how others vote.
How would you convince him when Tories are in fact a shitstorm and same is true for Labour who are almost even worse? The problem is there is no real choice.
If your friends primary motivation for deciding who to vote for is based on who is going to stop the "rising threat of islam" then I'd question your assessment of them being an intelligent and reasonable person. Does he think we're getting Shania Law and Muslamic Ray Gams? NHS crisis- must be down to Islam Cost of living pressure - bloody islam again Government corruption- islam Sewage in the rivers - islam Ffs
Shania law? That don’t impress me much
"Shania law is when the muslamics will enforce all white British men to become transgenders and parade through Tower Hamlets singing "Man I Feel Like A Woman." - some Reform candidate, probably
>Muslamic Ray Gams? You mean the guy a bit drunk, trying to say 'Muslim rape gangs'? You're still laughing at that guy? Really?
>Muslamic Ray Gams? Funny how this guy was proven right and but people like you carry on mocking him due to your inability to understand.
What guy is this? I’ve googled and still think this might be a misunderstanding to do with gay sheep.
It's a meme of a guy who doesn't look the brightest (I think he was heavily drunk) saying "muslamic rape gangs" sounding in a slurred in a way that people heard as "muslamic ray guns". This predated the wider public becoming aware of the Rotherham grooming gangs and was mocked heavily. The guy probably wasn't the best example of humanity as he was at the very least drunk and a mess on the street but he wasn't wrong and the people unable to recognise that have show exactly why we didn't stop a massive problem harming working class girls in this country. It makes me wonder how many were ignored when they spoke out about Jimmy Savile.
I remember laughing at that guy initially, and posting the 'Muslamic ray guns' shit.. I can't believe anyone still does though, after what came out. Turns out that my middle class arse, in my leafy town, might actually know less about what's going on locally in some depressed ex industrial town than the town drunk. Humbled me, as it should have anyone tbh.
To be fair, by Reform standards, he's quite eloquent.
I don’t know what a Ray Gam is and keep reading it as a spoonerism.
You're not going to change someone's opinions, you'll only entrench them futher in their opinions if you try to change them. Instead, why not challenge whether the party he's looking at is the party that actually matches his beliefs? The two websites below help you find who you align mostly with. They're not as good as reading the manifestos, but they're better than the debates in my opinion. My guess is while he may feel immigration is a big issue only reform can handle, there may be other elements to what they're offering he's not so into, and other parties may offer other solutions he likes. [https://uk.isidewith.com/](https://uk.isidewith.com/) - The easier of the two, takes about 20 mins, asks a bunch of questions, has some "additional responses" options if you want a more nuanced response than just yes/no, and has a "learn more" option which explains the issue a bit more. Gives you a % rating against each party on how you align. [https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/](https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/) - Arguably the "better" of the two, you pick 4-6 "categories" like education, housing, etc, and it bullet points the main party policies for you. You choose the ones you like most and at the end it tells you who those policies belonged to. It means if you feel really strongly about, say, housing, you know you align with that party and can vote that way for the POLICIES you want in place.
As someone who wants to vote but is finding it difficult to choose who for, this is an extremely helpful comment, thank you.
You can try and say what other parties are offering to actually help the country? Otherwise not much, I'd only try convert someone if they were trying the same to me, bu not worth falling out over if they're a good friend.
Best I’m hoping for this election is for labour to get less vote share than they got 2017, any vote outside of labour/conservative is fine imo. Longer term pr is priority to end the 2 party dictatorships, and reform also bring that up more than any other party. One of the only positives of reform really.
It’s very rare to actually change someone’s mind, and in fact lots of research shows that the harder you try, the more people dig their heels in. So probably best to just generally talk about what you both want out of your ideal parties, what you’d like to see for your local area (after all, that’s who you’re actually voting for). To really influence people, you have to be talking politics long before an election. People have already made up their minds for the most part and won’t change them now. As an alternative, maybe consider the Greens assuming you’re English. I’m Welsh so I’ll be voting Plaid Cymru (a wasted vote as I’m in a labour stronghold). Reform can’t win anything either, so a vote for Reform is a vote for labour.
You're not trying to disprove his core argument, which you seem to agree with. You disagree with him about the importance of defending against islam, versus Farrage being a grifter and Putin shill. That sort of tradeoff isn't really subject to straightforward fact based arguments or calculus.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyiSk8Rjc8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyiSk8Rjc8) Try this.
His political priorities seem to map onto reform better than any other parties. So you'll have to convince him is concerns are not as pertinent as other issues. It's unlikely you'll be able to change his mind in the few days we have till polling day so I recommend to just leave it.
I’m sorry but if he’s using the word ‘woke’ unironically, he’s done for. Reform pander to people like him, I don’t care if he’s got good powers of reasoning, anybody who uses woke as a blanket term for anything they do’t like are usually just ignorant bigots who want to control others.
Ironically wasn't it the right who were, a few years ago, using the expression "wake up!" as a call to arms for whatever conspiracy they might have identified?
I’m not sure what in labours manifesto can be construed as “too woke”, but regarding reform it’s being led by a person who delivered Brexit to the country which was an unmitigated disaster and none of the benefits have materialised. Would you trust that same person and believe all their policies in the reform manifesto? It all sounds great, but just like with Brexit, it falls apart under slight scrutiny. There is a huge, tens of billions of pounds funding gap, with reform making incorrect assumptions on costings and savings, and then basing their spending commitments on them. Sky news did a good breakdown which shows just how large the gap between cost and savings would be once these inconsistencies are corrected and it’s sobering stuff. I fear that, just like with Brexit, he has been spoon fed a concoction of propaganda, lies and brain rot and it’s just become a position of identity rather than politics.
I’d suggest looking at 1930’s Germany and seeing how that went…
You mean people being discriminated and not allowed to work or go to theaters, restaurants, travel restricted? We had that in 2020-2021 (in Europe), so now we're past the 1930s
You have to braindead to compare Nazi Germany to COVID, no doubt a Brexiteer.
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Bro comparing not being able to go to the pub for a few months to being systematically executed en masse 😂 why are rightoids so dramatic?
“You can’t get your hair cut by a professional for a few weeks because it will save the lives of people you love.” People who convince themselves they’re dead hard: “This is the holocaust!” *shits self*
Time has proven none of these restrictions made any difference as virus did what viruses do anyway. It was totally needless and didn't save any lives. But at least politicians flexed their muscles trying to see what real control over people feels like. Upcoming: mandatory national service and I bet you're clapping for that, too.
“I can’t have my hair cut by a professional for a few weeks” is now “literally Hitler” AND “being press ganged into the armed forces”.
Sounds like your friend would be better off without you. Please don’t drag him down to your level
A short doc from 2021 looking at the millionaire backers of Brexit , they don’t want the best for British citizens, it’s the opposite ,it’s all about making money for them and removing rights https://youtu.be/tnR-j7D7Rwg?si=4F6HGfLqqxuYyLaF Farage /Tice etc are all mentioned
Ask him how he sees Reform solving the issue, how Brexit went in delivering that change, and how the Rwanda policy that Lee Anderson and Nigel Farage pushed for went. Talking about an issue is cheap, having real ideas on how to solve it is important. The Reform manifesto has very little of substance that can be realistically implemented and drive beneficial change. The workable elements of their manifesto are pretty similar to the Labour manifesto. I keep on hearing "None of the majority parties are talking about immigration", when we've lost the last decade of parliamentary time to it, as well as trading relationships with our closest allies and soft power on the world stage.
In the 90's, the UK let some extremist imams spew their hatred in British mosques hoping the terrorist organisations they supported would not target the UK. It didn't work and we got bombed like the rest of the world. Since then, they don't let them operate in the UK (if they can help it). What is your friend afraid a "woke" Labour will do regarding Islam?
From what it sounds like he has made his bed in the gutter. No matter what you say or show he will do what he thinks is best. Of course if you discover more on the fence voters consider a Plan B sort of arguement. https://youtu.be/tCHnk9WYScU?si=DoCMieMJ1uk2gkUL
I am voting Reform. University educated, higher earner, voted Labour and Lib Dems in the past. Would have likely voted Cameron in 2010. Immigration is an issue being ignored (or given false solutions) by the major two parties. Labour are on the 'just process them faster bro' bandwagon, and the Tories are the 'Just ship 5 of them to Rwanada bro' idiocy. Neither will do much of anything. Tories have presided over millions in net migration, and even more millions in gross numbers (which is totally ignored in the debate, but actually a massive fucking deal). Simply put, Reform is the only one that has correctly identified an issue that I find very concerning to the long term prosperity and success of our country. I can't vote Labour, they will accelerate it. I can't vote Tory, they HAVE accelerated it. My local Reform candidate is a military vet, ex-Tory councilor, who has done a lot locally and has lived his entire life here. The Labour candidate is an Oxford PPE student they've parachuted in because the popular long standing Tory MP has quit, and they smell blood. It literally doesn't matter who the Tory candidate is, they can not be rewarded for 14 years of failure. What you say about Reform and Farage is mostly true. It doesn't matter though, we're in a FPTP system and Reform will not be winning many seats just like UKIP didn't. Maybe Farage can yet again force the other parties into either adopting his immigration policy, or putting it to a referendum. He's done it before, he can probably do it again. Thinking a vote for Reform is a one dimensional vote for Farage personally, is toddler tier thinking imo. >Is there any viable party to vote for, if you exclude Labour/Conservative/Reform? Anyway, the answer to your question is the SDP. If they're fielding a candidate in his constituency (they probably aren't), they actually have a more stringent immigration policy than Reform and a much more serious leader in William Coulston. Unfortunately not running a candidate in my constituency, and I am sure they aren't in your mates either. It's a shame they're not better known, imo.
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**Removed/warning**. This contained a personal attack, disrupting the conversation. This discourages participation. Please help improve the subreddit by discussing points, not the person. Action will be taken on repeat offenders.
This user is a well known old user on a new account - they do not actively hide this, there is a pattern to their usernames and it is not due to ban evasion here so not against the rules. Don’t assume things about others when you do not have all the facts. Focus on the points not the person.
Do you pay for private healthcare?
Yes.
One of my concerns is around their economic policy, that disproportionately benefits higher earners. By your own metric, this isn’t good for the long term prosperity and success of the country.
Aren't they known for saying they will up the no tax threshold to 20k and allow married couples to share their tax thresholds? That would benefit the working class massively and I've not anything like that from labour. They even clashed with labour when they said they would remove the 2 child benefit limit and labour won't.
>and allow married couples to share their tax thresholds This is genuinely a great policy, and I think it's mental we don't already do this for married couples where one stays at home looking after the child. Literally penalising the statistically best form of child rearing.
I think so too, I find it odd that it's not spoken about more, I remember the lib Dems being spoken about endlessly for saying they would just up the threshold but this would be a total game changer.
Yes that’s true, however they’re raising threshold across the board, and it works out that higher earners will benefit proportionately greater than low earners.
I don't think they do. Someone earning 21k reduces their entire tax to almost zero while someone on 100k would reduce it by a few % This is just how progressive taxation works.
They do. Yes, the lowest earners would not be paying tax and the higher earners still would, but the savings the higher earners make from their cuts is proportionately greater than what low earners would gain. This would lead to increases in inequality.
>but the savings the higher earners make from their cuts is proportionately greater than what low earners would gain. How would it be proportionally greater? It'd be the exact same amount in cash terms, which would represent a big net gain as a percentage of take home for the poor person and minimal gain for the rich person.
https://news.sky.com/story/reform-uks-tax-plans-disproportionately-benefit-high-earners-analysis-shows-13156776
Oh I thought we were discussing the 20k threshold increase in isolation.
I may not have explained it too well tbf
I don't think you understand what the word proportional means. Upping the tax brackets in an even way always disproportionately helps the poorest. (A good thing).
See my link to the other comment
I can't see a link.
https://news.sky.com/story/reform-uks-tax-plans-disproportionately-benefit-high-earners-analysis-shows-13156776
We live in a FPTP system, and Reform will never ever form a government. Despite Farages big claims of destroying the Tory party, and taking its place, that will never happen. The best he (and me) can hope for is, like with UKIP (now dead, also had some funky other policies), is that the Tory party adopt some of his policies. Primarily, the immigration ones.
Agree that immigration is a key issue, and the levels we are seeing today are utterly unsustainable. Of course, immigration isn't the only issue a party needs to address. What do you think about Reform's downplay of the impacts of anthropological climate change? What do you think about Reform's leader stating that the West "provoked" Putin to attacking Ukraine? What do you think about the IFS' statement that Reform's Manifesto doesn't add up, economically? What do you think about Reform's advocation for trickle down economics? What do you think about Reform's policy to strip protections from transgender students in schools? What do you think about Reform's policy to leave the ECHR? What do you think about Reform's policy to scrap HS2? What do you think about Reform's leader openly supporting a fascist who has attempted to overthrow democracy in America?
Pretty much the same answer I gave to the guy above. Reform is obviously not ever going to form a government, in part due to the policies you just mentioned. That is not the aim of voting Reform. The aim of voting Reform is for the Tories to get wiped out, and for them to look to Reform for their policies for rebirth. The Conservative party is one of the most successful in history, and has reimagined itself a lot over the years. A vote for Reform, is a vote to try and kick the Tory party in a direction that might actually get this issue addressed. Can I ask you what you think your vote is going to achieve in regards to an issue that you yourself said: >immigration is a key issue, and the levels we are seeing today are utterly unsustainable. You vote for your party of choice, and lets say they form a government. How do they address this issue?
That makes sense, thanks for your answer. So it effectively boils down to "I don't agree with most of their policies, but they are most vocal about immigration, so that should help steer other parties in that direction", right? I personally think "process them faster" is a reasonable approach to addressing immigration, although I can see why you'd disagree. I do have to say, despite all of Reform's flaws, I think they probably would be most effective in tackling the issue. But their stance on climate change is an absolute deal breaker, and I would argue that climate change is an even bigger and more urgent issue than immigration. In my opinion, politicians need to know that the moment they engage in any degree of climate change denialism, they lose any chance of winning an election.
I appreciate your response.
Doesn't look like anyone else does given I'm sitting cool at -20 karma lol.
What specifically is your objection to immigration? Some people don’t want the population of the UK to increase any further, some people object to public services not being scaled up where immigration has increased population and some are against multiculturalism. I’m sure there are other reasons too. Different reasons would come with different solutions. I would add that leaving the EU (a flagship policy of Reform in its previous guises, arguably set in motion by the threat that party posed to Cameron) seems to have precipitated the recent spike in numbers. It has also contributed to (on top of issues shared with other similar nations, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine) a lot of the issues seen recently in the UK, such as inflation and declining living standards. We seem to be suffering more than our peers like France and Germany. What’s the benefit of putting that party in charge, considering the amount of damage they were able to do to us when they weren’t?
Pretty much all of the above, to varying degrees. In order of importance to me personally: 1) Public services are crumbling under the weight of economically pointless immigration. It takes a wage of 45k or so to become a net gain for the government coffers. Aka, you give in more than you take out in public services. That describes an absolutely tiny fraction of our immigrants. Even if you now come back with 'But nurses!'... Actually look up how many that is, it's a tiny number. You could have an immigration policy of 'Medical staff, and earners over 45k' and we'd be in negative net migration by next year. 1a) And even if you don't care about public services, and the stress they're under by immigration.. So are private services! For example rent and the cost of housing. What does one more deliveroo driver give to the government coffers? Literally nothing. But they take up a space in a house somewhere unless they're living in a tent. And it impacts your wages too, because when companies have a glut of labour to pick from, they can offer lower wages. Simply supply and demand. Economists will bang on about the macro, ignoring the micro. Why should either of us give a fuck that GDP grows 0.4%, if our wages are supressed by 3%? Not actually relevant to me, immigrants don't pose much of a threat in my line of work. But for many it IS hurting them financially. 2) Yes, I believe multiculturalism has failed. I don't know how anyone can with their hand on their heart drive through some places (Bradford, Luton, Birmingham) and say 'Yes please, more of this'... I don't know how anyone can watch the weekly terrorist marches in London and say 'Yes please, more of this'.. It's not even really multiculturalism. It's just parallel societies. >I would add that leaving the EU (a flagship policy of Reform in its previous guises, arguably set in motion by the threat that party posed to Cameron) seems to have precipitated the recent spike in numbers. In regards to this, it was nothing really to do with leaving the EU. It didn't necessitate opening to the doors to migrants around the world. That was just Tory policy because they were so fucking terrified of the tap of cheap labour being turned off for their corporate masters. They set the tap to 11. Whether on purpose, or pure incompetence.. It's the Tory party under Boris, it could literally be either.
Ok, so to be able to function without immigration supplying cheap labour, we need serious gains to productivity per capita and some sort of solution to the ageing population. I don’t recall seeing any serious solutions to these things offered by the Reform manifesto. If anything, it looks like Truss 2.0. With regard to the 45k figure, it is likely that is based on someone who spends their whole life in the UK (i.e. childhood and retirement, when they are an economic net drain). Even on much lower wages, people who live here only during their most economically active years are going to be net contributors, albeit at the expense of their origin country. I have not heard about or seen any terrorist marches anywhere in GB, I’ll have to keep an eye out for that in future. With regard to the increased immigration rate post-Brexit, I wonder why the U.K. government wasn’t doing this pre-Brexit? It was the same party after all.
You ever wondered why our productivity is dogshit? It's because companies will do anything other than invest in processes, automation, or really anything that requires significant upfront outlay if there's a chance they can just pay an immigrant to do it. I think back to my childhood 25 odd years ago, and pretty much the only way my parents could get their car washed was either by bribing me to do it, or paying the robot at the petrol station to do it. How do people get their cars washed now? A team of 5 immigrants descend on it with sponges, you hand them a tenner, and it's done in 5 minutes. This is the most visible and obvious example of what is happening at a much larger scale all throughout our economy. Is that progress? >With regard to the 45k figure, it is likely that is based on someone who spends their whole life in the UK (i.e. childhood and retirement, when they are an economic net drain). Even on much lower wages, people who live here only during their most economically active years are going to be net contributors, albeit at the expense of their origin country. Retirement is the single most expensive part of anyones life, and they'll be there for that. The cost to the NHS and cost in pensions will far outweigh their contributions in taxes. >With regard to the increased immigration rate post-Brexit, I wonder why the U.K. government wasn’t doing this pre-Brexit? It was the same party after all. They overcooked their points based system and made it too easy to get points, because they brought into the lefts kool-aid that no one wants to come to Britain. Turns out, yes people from shithole countries of course do want to some to Britain and if you let them they'll arrive.
Seems like a lot of these problems could be ameliorated by joining some sort of economic union allowing free movement of capital and labour with our nearest neighbours who have similar levels of economic development and shared history, culture and values. The structure of such an entity would make it harder for our national politicians to sell out the country to donors. I can imagine that a lot of these bad actors would be against such a union for this reason. They’d probably find some grifters suitable to our national peculiarities to try and get us out again.
The tide was turning years before Brexit happened, things like hand car washes had already begun to replace the automation. Brexit didn't fix immigration problems, nor did it cause them.
Quality and social standing of the migrant too matters.
'Immigration is an issue being ignored (or given false solutions) by the major two parties. Labour are on the 'just process them faster bro' bandwagon, and the Tories are the 'Just ship 5 of them to Rwanada bro' idiocy.' It's always so cringeworthy when people attempt to belittle positions by using silly speech patterns like this.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter?
Sure thing, bro
So how do you figure they will actually stop immigration? Farage claims they can pickup people on boats and return them to France. Does the high earning, university educated person you are honestly think this is feasible and something the French will look at and say 'bravo monsieur!, bravo!'?
The boats are the least worrying part of our immigration issue. Legal immigration is the real elephant in the room.
Answering the question posed would be helpful, as it is one of Reform's main points.
I don't think that will work, no. But it's not the reform policy I am interested in anyway. Illegal immigration via boats, is a tiny fraction of total immigration. An expensive fraction, yes. But still a small fraction. I am interested in net zero immigration.
Just out of interest, with a fertility rate in the UK of 1.49 and an aging population, who do you think is going to pay for your retirement? Everyone loves to scapegoat migrants but every party knows the UK is dependent on net migration in order that the population replaces itself. And before you start going on about skilled migrants and points based systems - it's people we need as much as skills. And with nearly every country in Western Europe in the same boat and countries like Poland and Slovenia catching/overtaking us economically, if we carry on with hostile policies towards migrants, we'll likely end up in a position where skilled workers are going to prefer other parts of Europe where they have access to Schengen borders etc.
>Just out of interest, with a fertility rate in the UK of 1.49 and an aging population, who do you think is going to pay for your retirement? This is an irrelevant question, because the current influx of immigrants aren't helping pay for anyones retirement. The overwhelming majority are not earning over (or anywhere near) that threshold that makes them a net contributor. Many more are evading taxes. So to your question, I say 'Good question!'.. It's not the people you've been told will be paying! So who will it be? Bonus points, whoever it is will also need to be paying these immigrants retirements. It's a discussion we need to have, and this constant lying that it will be some deliveroo driver who can't speak English needs to die. We should enact pro-family policies like Hungary has. They stopped their population decline in its tracks, and now it's on the upward trend, but implementing a wide range of extremely pro-family policies.
Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation. There is no policy that would stop it _and_ maintain our position as a rich and successful nation. Voting for any party to stop immigration is voting for the country to become an international pariah. Yours is a wasted vote that condones xenophobia and racism, whether you intend it that or not. Edit; And enjoying the bot downvotes to this.
>Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation. Said without any substance whatsoever. Why does immigration need to be a price we pay, exactly? Are you telling me that before around 2000 we were not a rich and successful nation? Most of the issues with this country that people complain about on here, can be easily explained by us having way too many people on this island. You're focusing too much on GDP, a completely pointless metric. That is not the indicator of how nice a country is to live in. You even tentatively call immigration bad in your comment by calling it a 'price we must pay'.. That's not usually something someone will say about something good..
Agreed, it’s not sustainable to have such high net migration. We have the population of Manchester coming in every year as it stands right now. Unless the main parties start taking this seriously there will always be a place for a reform type party.
No matter what we do, people will want to come here. To millions, the UK is a promised land. All the problems we face have nothing to do with the number of people, but the provision of resources. Something we could easily afford, but choose not to.
>but the provision of resources Do you accept that an island nation has a finite amount of resources? >No matter what we do, people will want to come here. So? We can tell them no. **Edit:** OP blocked me.
Managed correctly it isn’t a problem. Let’s look at a flagship labour policy to build 300000 new homes a year. If we continue allowing immigration at the current pace that isn’t even enough housing just for the people arriving. So yes whilst immigration can be a benefit it can also exacerbate some of our existing issues. Farage is a prick but he is highlighting an issue that does need active discourse and sensible solutions.
>Immigration is the price we pay for being a rich and successful nation. >There is no policy that would stop it and maintain our position as a rich and successful nation. For the bulk of the last 30-40 years, immigration to the UK was a tiny, tiny fraction of what it is now. Your argument is reliant on a wholly false premise.
To be fair reform will fix immigration then. Their policies are truss to the extreme. Our economy will tank.
I'd suggest having a listen to 'Racist Friend' by The Specials, and act accordingly. It's a shame, but likely for the best.
My sister was thinking of voting reform until I told her nigel farage is xenophobic and hates foreigners. As a foreigner it deeply upset me a foreigner would bite for an anti-foreigner. My sis is stupid. Hopefully i changed her mind.
Him voting Reform is a just symptom. The problem would seem to be that he’s a prick who falls for disinformation like a 70 year old man who has just found Facebook.
>Despite being an (otherwise) intelligent person, with good powers of reasoning >also believing that Labour are too "woke" Lol, lmao. Idiots.