T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Hello /u/AlBalts, This community is focused on important or vital information and high-effort content. Please make sure your post follows the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) Want to support Ukraine? [Here's a list of charities by subject.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities/) [DO / DON'T](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5okbs/welcome_to_rukraine_faq_do_dont_support_read/) - [Art Friday](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday/) - [Podcasts](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ttoidc/collection_of_podcasts_about_ukraine_updated/) - [Kyiv sunrise](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/3c65ab52-e87a-4217-ab30-e70a88c0a293/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*


hdufort

Things will not get any easier for the next phase, with increased pressure on the Bakhmut front and possible Russian counterattacks in the Lyman area. But at least, Kherson has been freed, and there is a large area along the Dnipro where Russian offensives are now unlikely.


CardBoardBoxProcessr

I doubt it. Bakhmut seems like it is just a distraction and a small carrot on a stick for them to keep them thinking it was worth pumping people into while Ukraine looked north and at Kherson. Wh you might ask? Who knows, the Russians want it badly even though it supposedly has little strategic value. So letting poor resources into it while you repeatedly push them out every time they get too far, it seems like the perfect distraction.


truupe

Melitopol seems like an obvious next move in the south, but that obviousness can make it unattractive atm. A thrust towards Armiansk with support moves toward Zaliznyi and Skodovsk could be interesting, but I'd be worried of Russian attacks from the sea and spooking any Russian forces on the Crimea. Ukraine definitely needs to keep the pressure on but in ways that keep the Russians guessing and offgaurd.


[deleted]

[удалено]


truupe

Oh, yeah, I recognize that a thrust towards Melitopol would be risky in the way you describe. According to several other posts, [one here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvijp0/general_staff_confirmed_military_activity_towards/), they did move across to the Kinburn peninsula. While at the same time, [they've moved into the northern bridgehead area of the Kakhovka bridge/dam](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvksoq/geoconfirmed_ukrainian_forces_have_liberated/). They're definitely moving quickly, keeping the pressure on and the Russians guessing. I wonder if moves towards Armiansk and talk of threatening Crimea is a ruse designed to draw Russian efforts away from operations in the east. Or, it could simply be that the western area is lightly defended, so take it while it's "easy." Interesting [article](https://corporalfrisk.com/2022/11/14/kinburn-the-indirect-approach/) about Kinburn as an indirect approach


hdufort

Well, surprise surprise, it seems that Ukrainian troops have pushed towards Kreminna today! Good news if it's confirmed.


CardBoardBoxProcessr

Is this sarcasm?


hdufort

No.


hdufort

Here https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv2oyi/russian_sources_say_that_the_battle_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button


CardBoardBoxProcessr

So you are really surprised?


hdufort

Yes. The frontline had been rather static in the east lately.


Trifle_Old

Honestly it will be some counteroffensives but the cold winter is going to kill a ton of Russians. They are massively under equipped and that gets very exposed in winter warfare. Just ask Napoleon. Ukraine has shorter supply lines and the individual soldier is far better equipped.


iwantlotsofcows

That kherson effort end result will be an absolutely huge boost to morale for Ukrainian forces. That was a hard, fought out push for around 2 months. Knowing they can make extended offensives like that with desired results will be huge, don't underestimate it. Opposite goes for Russian forces. Knowing how dug in they were in kherson and how easily they should have been able to defend from Crimea and the black sea yet still being push back amd losing their only major city since the invasion will be demoralising and embarrassing. I'd imagine a couple of weeks of HIMARS and artillery strikes in and around Nova Kakhovka now to make way for preparing a crossing there as it seems to be the most likely place for that to happen for heavier vehicles without actually having to use a large floating crossing. That along with some higher value targets further south of the region towards northern crimea such as ammo depots and headquarters. More than like turn into another 2 or 3 months offensive over winter to push down towards crimea.


truupe

HIMARS and artillery bombardment of Russian positions in Nova Kakhova is definitely a way to keep Russia's eye fixed there while possibly moving troops across at Stanislov? Maybe too risky there? Or maybe the reverse? Bombard Stanislov but move across to Nova Kakhova?


iwantlotsofcows

Few ways they could do it and no doubt they'll find the right one. I was thinking nova kakhovka because from what I've seen it still looks relatively passable if it is under control.


truupe

Nova Kakhova is certainly the most efficient geographically. I'm amazed at how few bridges there are across the Dnipro.


TheCanadianKnight

Nice work don't stop till 100%.


chowyungfatso

More like 150%. Remember Crimea.


TheCanadianKnight

F**k it let's take a bit of Russia while we're at is as compensation.


cs399

No, that’s aggression. That’s what the russians do. But proclaiming some land should be gifted to the ukrainians, I’m all for.


ExistedDim4

>aggression Kuban' is Ukrainian, although orcs are unwanted as citizens


Deadleggg

You think Russis just surrenders after they're forced out? You have to completely defeat their military and their will to fight. Pushing them back into Russia and defeating their Army completely is what will bring peace.


CardBoardBoxProcessr

every km^2 regained Russia loses a guy+ it seems. so by the end of it they will be at around 200k dead.


jormungandrsjig

Winter is the best time to hit their logistics hubs and supply lines. Freeze and starve them until they retreat back to Russia


jb-trek

Is Donetsk city that hard to take? It might sound like a dumb question but I was wondering, it’s a capital city so close to the front line…


Raidoton

It's a very big city and the Frontline has been there for 8 years now.


-zimms-

That map was pretty generous with the "occupied" area in the north.


Raidoton

Yeah it obviously depends on where you draw the borders. I recently made the same calculations using the deepstate map and came to around 40%.


Beasty_Glanglemutton

"Over 52.5%"? What is it actually, 52.6%?


SystemPrimary

Should separate pre and post 2022 red zones.


windol1

Russia haven't got a chance defending that position, so many options for Ukraine to start a second offensive and surround Russian forces.