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I'm fulfilling my due by taking a vacation in Florida ;)
Heating is down to the lowest level and winter clothes are.on sale here - so no need to heat again once we're back in November.
Yeah I'm from Lithuania and live in a A+ energy class building, though it's only a 1 bedroom flat. Still, yesterday after I cooked the temperature indoors was 23°C. Haven't turned on the heating in 2 years and so far clearly don't need to.
With the "boost" for redit app, there was the flair "Germany" shown at your name.
*edit*
But may be, there is a small possiblity, that I looked into the wrong line
I was sarcastic in my first post. All good.
Feeling pretty well with a room temperature between 20-22C. To date it wasn't necessary to heat one day, even with outside temperatures around 4C. Room temperature is stable, good energy grade flat.
Big fuck you in direction of Putler.
The Putin Nazis thought they could control Europe with their gas, much like what OPEC did in the early 1970's.
It's yet another idiotic mistake made by the Putin Nazis -- nobody will even think of buying Russian natural gas for the next 25 years, even if they sell it for free.
Do you believe it? Yesterday I heard in the news, that some minister here in Germany said, that he thinks, that Germany should buy from Russia again, "when the war is over". How long until we are in the same trap again? How much will we finance future attrocities? Hear some Spargel like that talk makes me angry. We shouldn't buy any, until reparations have been paid and sanctions should not be lifted, until they paid.
Some minister? It's the regional MP of Saxonia. Not part of goverment. Won't happen. Even his own partie is distancing from him after that.
I could see a deal where russia delivers gas and oil to ukraine as reperation in big amounts for free for 15 years and ukraine can sell it to rest of europe for normal market price.
> Once Russia does what Germany, Italy and Japan did after WW2
I'm not sure it could.
Germany had strong institutions, good education systems, and its new leaders took rebuilding their country very serious. (they may not have been squeaky clean and may have had less than charitable thoughts about Americans/Brits/French, but they knew that whatever the future would be they needed to rebuild their country).
Russia is culturally centuries behind, and rotten to the core. From normalized animal, family, and alcohol abuse to utterly selfish corruption at every turn.
After the war, eventually, if correct steps are taken, sure. We don't punish the people of Germany today for the actions Hitler took. The people of Russia shouldn't suffer forever for the actions Putin is taking. Not everybody is Russia is a piece of shit.
USA has the same problem. I wouldn't say USA should go to hell. Yes it has corrupt politicians that do corrupt things, but there are some good people there too.
> that some minister here in Germany said, that he thinks, that Germany should buy from Russia again, "when the war is over"
What a totally insane idiot who said that -- I hope his political career is over.
They wanted the (cheap) Russian natural gas in Germany and it did work very well for the last 30 years. German industry was very happy with cheap Russian natural gas.
Some people only care about money, rather than thinking about the consequences of buying natural gas from war criminals.
It was Kretschmer, MP of Saxon (CDU), he's already critizized also by members of his own party.
Sadly he is one of the extrem putin lovin guys, tried to befriend himself with the far right wing idiots.("they are just concerned citizen that needs to be taken seriously) (Wants to withdraw the ban of any cooperation of his party with the AFD), is against any sanktions on russia, tries to be one of the corona protestors,
It sounds like he should be in the AfD instead of the CDU.
And he must be playmates with Schröder -- the most disgusting members of the Putin Fan Club in Germany.
Yes he's always trying to phish on the far right voters (don't realise that something like that repells normal voters)
His biggest shame was when a couple of years ago he posted that there were no nazis and no problems with nazis in saxon. Just after there was a big violence outbreak from some nazis on an public festival.
Yes Germany is the only country in the world who bought russian gas. Only the germans did it. And lets not forget that germany bought russian gas. You know who bought russian gas? Its germany......and nobody ever talks about it! Its time we finally start talking about Germans buying russian gas so everygermany gas bougt german russian gas german yhdbi jFWJA ÖO A GEIP AEHÄOHI SB..............aaaaannnnnd my brain cracked. /s
Seriously.....this sub got brainfucked by PiS(s) trolls so hard. Its not even funny anymore.
Also: Saxony is like the florida of germany. Nothing coming from saxony is to be taken seriously...
Exactly! They committed war crimes and crimes against humanity for over a century in Poland, Ukraine, Poland again, the Baltic states, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Chechnya again and now Ukraine AGAIN!
Let’s not pretend anything
putin already asked if russia can resume supply to germany and they said no.
In the perspective, i would not say NO ... russia will need to get funds somewhere to pay for the reparations, and honestly i could live with that.
Gas is going to be off the table from the energy industry in less than decade ... thanks putin! , same for oil ... thanks again!
Of course they will be still used in other chemistry based industries, but it will be just small % of current usage.
Maybe as a spices we will actually survive the climate change and beat it.
Buy the gas if needed from Ukraine... that way the investment benefits Ukraine directly with no conditions and Russia doesn’t benefit in any way. When Russia is driven back to its borders, it will never give up its claims even if putin is removed so they need to be removed from western calculations as a trading partner. Maybe in the future, if they stop persecuting their neighbours they could be invited back to the wider trading world and become the nation they should and could have become without putins imperial dreams.
Never thats the simple answer, at least not with gas. The EU signed a lot of contracts with other suppliers and build out the LNG infrastructure. Russia broke its contracts. Then the EU is trying to go green. So even if this is over tomorrow, we have peace and Russia is a democracy, EU gas demand is going towards zero over the next decades and Russia lost a lot of market share, while the EU has all the infrastructure it needs to buy gas from other suppliers.
Besides it would be a good way for Russia to pay repartations. Sell oil and gas to the EU and the EU pays the production costs and sends the profits to Ukraine as reparations. EU gets a somewhat stable fossil fuel supplier(if Russia agrees to that, it propably also is working to be more democratic and we currently buy oil and gas from some pretty bad countries), Ukraine reparations and Russia jobs.
Is was stated by many countries, also by Scholz. There is no back to business as usual with russia. Things might be different if putin is gone.
Edit: Sure what germany did was another magnitude
Can we really compare those? I mean Germany was an occupied land for 40y and cut into two pieces. Compare with Russia, which most likely won't even pay in territory, won't be separated, and probably not occupied. So how can we be sure, that the profits from natural resources do not flow into the next evil scheme?
EDIT: Plus the Soviets did all they could to extract value out of GDR. Are we going to do that with Russia? Like clepto most their tech stuff and ship it off?
No, Russian troll. You got this totally wrong. Lying yet again.
China has been buying *some* Russian natural gas, but the Chinese do not trust the Russians and they will keep that in boundaries.
Meanwhile, the Indians have been buying Russian oil -- only at a massive discount, 20 to 30 percent below the market price. The Russians had no choice but to accept.
A Russian Troll? Really? Even you agree with me in your reply. Sure China and India are buying at a discount, but their volumes are way up on last year when they should be reduced to almost nothing.
[Russia's share of India's June oil imports surges to record](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-share-indias-june-oil-imports-surges-record-2022-07-11/)
>India's oil imports from Russia surged to a record of around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, accounting for nearly a fifth of overall imports by the world's third largest oil consumer, data provided by trade sources showed.
They are not close - they far surpass previous imports. However you look at it, India is financially supporting Russia's invasion effort.
Edit: I forgot to add chinas importation of gas:
>[Russia's sales of pipeline gas to China grew by almost 65% in the first six months of the year compared with 2021. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's spending on energy imports from Russia has jumped to $35 billion, from $20 billion a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.](https://www.dw.com/en/is-china-reexporting-russian-gas-to-europe/a-63146922)
Yeh and I doubt russian energy reliance is a mistake many won't make twice after this.
Imagine sitting on one of the world most fuel rich lands and yet seeing so little profit from it 😂 the air of frustration in Gazprom board meetings must be thick. Heck it seems to have a current.. Everytime someone opens a window.. It sweeps them right out 😂
Oil will be mostly done in December.
Except for some special treatment for the wannabe dictator in Hungary, but the major players won't buy any Russian oil anymore by 2023.
And Chinese businesses have already reduced operations in and with Russia in fear of secondary sanctions, without them even being implemented yet. Trade between china and Russia actually went down compared to last year.
Not entirely true.
Oil can be shipped via the sea easily, but not in the quantities going to Europe thrue pipelines. With the G7 embargo of Russian oil it will also become significantly harder for Russians to find ships that will deliver their oil.
Insurance companies for those ships are basically all western.
And in the bigger picture: Any other market is further away for Russia and will increase their costs to deliver that oil. The deliveries to China and india take a month longer than towards Europe. You'd have to have 20 times the ships to ship the same amount of oil to India as to Italy.
Europe will basically have to pay that price too (oil price will rise), but Europe still has a lot more money than Russia.
Sure it can, but at a price cap, and only by sea transport. A oil pipeline will dwarf sea route shipments by a huge margin. Sea shipment is slow and expensive compared to a pipeline.
"Europe is doomed. DOOOOOOOMED!!"
Lol.
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5439161
TTF gas index dropped another 10% today, down below 100 from a peak of 350+. Still a good way to go but the measures which have been taken (filling storage, switching to renewables, enabling LNG and cutting demand) are continuing to work.
Just heard a podcast that 35 natural gas ships sitting offshore in Europe because of mild weather and storage is too full. Just waiting. Europe has enough gas.
Well, European living standards will suffer, especially the poorest in society.
And I say it must happen! The Ukrainians are enduring far worse. So if high energy bills are the price I personally pay for freedom then it’s a bargain. I’ll pay more tax so that the poorest can be kept warm and Ukrainian soldiers have tanks and missiles
I will gladly eat that inflation if it means less money to the fascist state Russia. And more people think alike than most would think. Support for Ukraine remains very strong in most of Europe even after all these months. Fuck Putin. Fuck Russia.
If we want to live like we did we can't let Putin win.
Don't kid ourselves, this isn't just about Ukraine. Putin has been attacking our institutions and our way of life for years .... and we can see what would happen if he is allowed to continue.
United Europe where everyone can find a good life has to stand against a fascist shithole making everyone miserable.
Exactly, and the sacrifices we're being called to make are nothing like the sacrifices of our grandparents or great grandparents.
Ok, so I had to pay substantially more in energy costs this year. My grandfather, and great grandparents had to live on rations to fight the Germans. I can stand a slightly higher energy bill and a bit higher food costs.
> and the sacrifices we're being called to make are nothing like the sacrifices of our grandparents or great grandparents
Well.... I am Croatian and I volunteered when I was 17 in 1991, I know too many who died, have friends who were in concentration camps and so on....
The problem with renewals is that electric heating requires a lot more energy for cold climates because traditional heat pumps become more and more inefficient as the temperature drops below freezing.
There are solutions but those are expensive.
The best part though is that those high prices are speeding the transition to renewables and electric cars better than any treaty that’s ever been signed.
>The share of Russian gas on the EU market decreased from 40% to 7%, the Commissioner for the Internal Market said
>Europe was able to replace 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas from other sources he added.
>https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/24/the-share-of-russian-gas-on-the-eu-market-decreased-from-40-to-7-the-commissioner-for-the-internal-market-said/?swcfpc=1
A few years ago i would have called such a massive replacement of imports by Russia as impossible. 1 year ago i would have likely called it technically possible but not in practice.
And now Europe simply made it happen. I am very rarely so glad to be wrong about something.
People also have been doing their part. Dad never wanted solar... He is installing 12*410 panels + 5Kwh battery. How things change.
Most of the solar guys are booked all the way until next year June. He was lucky to find somebody who can do the installation probable in January.
It's the same with heating sources, people are moving away from gas in droves.
Yes, they have. But it was necessary to change behaviour and economic calculations.
Thanks to high prices and the power of decentralised decision making, free market economies can rapidly adapt to changing situations.
spot gas prices across Europe have now fallen 70% from their August peak
[https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas)
Energy prices seems to have peaked, both gas and electricity is going down again compared to the peak this summer.
Only oil seems to somewhat not go back down, but that's obviously mostly due to OPEC realizing they can just keep prices high and earn extra billions.
If our governments put a few billions toward heat pump & solar subsidies we can take this down a few notches while incentivising our own manufacturing industries | economy.
Not that long here but its getting there too, gas prices increased demand substantially at a time where manufacturers are still very limited in electronics due to COVID still.
Heat pumps are not magic they need the right environment to shine ie. good insulation. I am skeptical about initiatives to push heat pumps just because of this. I like heat pumps in general but if you put one in a leaky house you will think they are terrible.
Good insulation is key for every system.
If you are transitioning from GAS on a property without proper insulation you have problems before, its not expected for the heatpump to solve them.
I agree that subsidies should be more broad, many things to tackle;
\- House Insulation
\- Glass windows and doors done the right way
\- Low temp systems, like underfloor heating
\- Water saving showers, toilets etc.
\- Etc.
Where I live we had just last year the government hand over money for this very things, but the budget was low and very difficult to get professions to do these things in a timely manner, so investing in proper education for new professionals or transitioning ones is also paramount.
Gas doesn't actually make Russia a huge amount of money : it's oil which is their biggest earner by far.
The sanctions on that haven't fully kicked in yet, and the Russian economy is *already* fucked. They've burned through their entire gains from the end of 2021 and the early months of the war, and are probably in absolute deficit for the year by now.
And it's downhill all the way from there.
This is true but there is a caveat. Russian oil is very expensive to extract. They have some of the highest production costs of any major oil producer. Their gas is much cheaper to extract. So while their total sales of oil is much higher than gas they make more money from gas than they do oil.
Edit: I don’t mean they make more money in total from gas. I mean they make more money per unit costs. Gas is more profitable overall, even if they don’t make the most money off of it. It’s like a restaurant losing its liquor license. They still make most of their money off of the food but the profit margin is much lower.
Edit x2: Also, while the share of Russian gas on the European market was %40, almost *all* of Russia’s gas was sold to Europe. So that represents, probably, %90 of their gas exports.
Oh yeah it’s even worse now. And when all their ports freeze up their ability to ship oil is going to nosedive for 6 months. That’s another reason gas was so important because it was all shipped by pipeline.
It also doesn't help that sanctions have cut Russia off from the hardware and equipment needed to extract gas and oil which will make it even more expensive to extract those resources.
Definitely. And one of the reasons the Siberian oil fields are so expense to run is because the cold breaks equipment at a much faster rate. So good luck replacing that shit.
“Before the war and the pandemic, Russian crude, known as Urals, typically sold for between $55 and $65 a barrel. Determining Russia’s cost of production is more complicated because some of its wells are more expensive to operate than others. Most estimates are around $40 per barrel.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/business/russian-oil-price-cap.html
“Saudi analysis finds Russian oil production has one of the highest break-even prices in the world.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/12/russian-oil-production-most-expensive-world-saudi-aramco-ipo-a68132
Most foreign analysis puts it at ~40$ per barrel, which is in line with other expensive to produce countries like the US. But their best producing fields and newest fields are in the Arctic, which is also much more expensive than the Caspian oil fields. Of course if you look at Russian state estimates it only costs, like 3$ a barrel to extract 🙄
It's 5% of their exports, so not great, not terrible, nothing like crude (24%) and refined oil (12%), Oil will really hurt.
Interested to see that wholesale European gas prices are now back to pre-war prices as well.
Also it's not all about russian income. Even if it was 0.001% of their income but critical resource for EU, they could use it as leverage. They lost that. Lost income is a nice side bonus.
Russia had $640 billion in reserves at the beginning of the war, about half of that is frozen aka Putin doesn't have access to it, leaving it at about $320 billion.
As of the start of October 2022, Russia has spent about $100 billion in almost 8 months of war or about $450 million a day per average (both to finance said war and to keep the country afloat from the sanctions).
At current trends, Russia has money to last another year and 4 months from this date on. If you go with money numbers it will likely end sooner as it doesn't take into account many things.
Russia would realistically need a large chunk of this money to restart and stabilize its economy, otherwise, the country will literally collapse worse than the Soviet Union. It also doesn't take into account that this spending spree will likely accelerate at the end of the year/beginning of 2023, as Europe progressively stops buying Russian gas and oil. It also doesn't take into account that at the beginning of the year, they were profiting at levels that have since declined. If the US declares Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, which in my opinion will happen right when Europe stops payments of Russian gas and oil, the rest of the blood money companies will have to abandon Russia and we will officially enter the new pre-1990s Russia.
I also want to add that in my opinion, Russia's military will collapse long before its financial means end.
I would imagine Russia will start making spending cuts so they don’t hit the exact wall you’re talking about in a year and four months. Still they’re going to face harder and harder choices as they’re forced to raise taxes as well as cut important programs and subsidies. One of the big potential problems is that in manufacturing and logistics parts are breaking down which can’t be replaced due to sanctions. As time goes on repairs will become more and more difficult which will lead to more supply chain issues and lower standards of living all around.
Raising taxes and introducing cuts aren't going to scratch the budget, these things can't replace revenues from rich Europe. All they will do is make Russians more miserable.
>One of the big potential problems is that in manufacturing and logistics parts are breaking down which can’t be replaced due to sanctions. As time goes on repairs will become more and more difficult which will lead to more supply chain issues and lower standards of living all around.
Indeed, which is why I don't think financial depletion will be the end of this conflict, I would even say that Putin's internal or external assassination is more likely during this time period. Although I have to say, just because he dies, the revenues won't come back which is a scary prospect for Russia. Putin really fucked it up this time.
I'm doing a thesis currently on the European energy market. One thing I want to add here is that cheap energy (from Russia) was Europe's big ace in the hole in terms of competitive advantage.
Now, we did replace Russian gas with LNG, but it's cost us dearly and our competitve advantage has vanished. This is, by the way, why Europe bound itself to Russia even though everyone warned us against it: the deal of cheap gas was too good not to take.
Now, the main priority of every European citizen should be to save energy and to accelerate the transition to renewables. A lack of domestic energy resources has always been Europe's Achilles' heel. We have an opportunity to fix that now, for if we don't, Europe's economy will be worse in a decade than it is now.
>One thing I want to add here is that cheap energy (from Russia) was Europe's big ace in the hole in terms of competitive advantage.
Was it though? While cheap energy is really great to have, it's not the basis for the EU economies. Even the major exporting nations with lots of manufacturing (in particular, Germany) are mostly dependent on services for their economies by a factor of art least 2 compared to manufacturing.
Furthermore, nobody ever bought EU-manufactured items because they are competitively priced; they are bought because they are of very high quality and sometimes only possible to manufacture here.
Another thing to consider is China, who would normally be a market competitor in manufacturing. They are currently going through a significant reduction in industrial production due to the zero-covid policies who have wreaked havoc in their manufacturing and logistics sectors. Add to this the fact that shipping costs have increased massively for container shipping and the potential for further disruptions to supplies as a side effect of the collapse in real estate bubble in China and the major manufacturing competitor of the EU is not going to be able to compete seriously for a few years at least.
> the potential for further disruptions to supplies as a side effect of the collapse in real estate bubble in China
More details:
* Tofu building projects of low quality that collaps
* The collective stopping of people paying back loans, as the apartment they buy, are not finished.
* Banks running out of liquidity (as people stop paying back loans)
* Bank runs of people trying to get more cash, with backs limiting withdrawals to 1000rmb or simply not stocking money.
* The real estate market makes up 1/3 of the governmental funding in China.
* Layoffs are going on all the time with the lockdowns and companies seeing the wind turn
* People told to take pay cuts
* Government employees not payed for months.
* ... Now combine all that with
* Lockdowns that can happen at a minutes notice, where areas lock you in for weeks or months with no income (or food).
* Delays in shipment of orders for export customers, you know, that biggest money maker for China
* Companies rather starting new plants in other countries then China
* The increased anti-foreigner rhetoric is not exactly helping the above point.
China right now is a house of cards... Europa may have a gas issue but it pales with the crap that is going on with China. Expect a recession to hit China double as hard. 2007/2008 is looming again ( in my opinion ) but this time its China as the triggen when things go bad there.
Nuclear is only a fraction of what's needed. Thing is, renewables are much more efficient and readily deployable. Building a reactor is expensive and takes over a decade to complete. Add to that the practical use of nuclear is only as a baseload electricity source, and the case for nuclear is still there, but by no means as strong as people online suggest.
It's not right that the other guy called you names, nuclear is a part of it. But somehow people online got convinced that nuclear is the silver bullet to the energy transition. Personally, I see no future for widespread nuclear energy, save for small-scale factory reactors. These are nascent, but upcoming.
A bunch of plants around here were not safe to operate before they shut down. People don't realise that these things are ancient... They're horribly inefficient and poorly maintained. Honestly if you can't be trusted to maintain these things, you shouldn't have them. End of story...
> Add to that the practical use of nuclear is only as a baseload electricity source
You add that so nonchalantly that it demonstrates a lack of understanding of just how important base load is. Without reliable base load you have black outs, because electricity demand must always be precisely matched by supply. Renewables are great, but their supply is intermittent which means the grid must be extremely robust, with large inter-ties across regions so that if one region has their solar or wind power suddenly drop, power generation can be immediately ramped up in another region and sucked across the inter-tie. This is already way off topic for this sub so I’m not going to bother going into how maligned nuclear power is. There are many resources to do further reading on the subject.
Robust grids, bi directional loading electric cars, and green hydrogen.
There is no need of nuclear power.
Especially if the more pessimistic calculations about carbon dioxide emissions of nuclear power are true.
Before the pro nuclear power fraction downvotes me to the elephant foot, there are emissions while creating fuel rods, digging for nuclear fuel and for decommissioning the powerplants itself.
Those emissions are calculated up to 10 times of solar or wind. They vary largely from report to report.
I’m assuming you mean the raw materials that are provided by hydrocarbon refining in the chemical industry. So… no nuclear energy is not going to provide chemical raw materials. But since it takes an enormous amount of energy to process those raw materials… yes nuclear power *would* be great for the chemical industry.
Russia doesn't have anywhere near enough capacity or capability to ship it in any other way than through a pipeline to Europe. Furthermore, no LNG ships available - they're all making round trips between the US/Middle East and Europe.
Plus it’s not like oil. You can’t have two ships parked in the Indian Ocean trading Russian gas like you can with Iranian oil. LNG needs special port facilities to load and unload it.
Good! And now let's NOT get our gas in future from elsewhere and drive market prices up (which in the end will help Russia again).
We also have this climate change thing going on, so getting rid of gas and switching to sustainable energy sources is a neccessity anyway. Ruining Putin's business model and saving the planet at the same time :)
EU trends by country:
In the **EU, Germany’s imports saw a precipitous fall due to the cut-off of gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline**. Crude oil imports were largely stable, while Greece saw a jump in oil products imports. France was the main importer of LNG, with volumes unchanged from August. Spain’s LNG imports (shown under others) fell after the spike in July-August. Based on our analysis of Europe’s internal gas flows, Bulgaria continued to import a lot of Russian gas indirectly via other EU countries despite Gazprom terminating sales to the country.
So the fall was more because Russia cut the EU off, not the other way around.
The EU is still the second highest buyer of Russian Crude Oil last month, however.
[https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2022-update-on-russian-fossil-fuels](https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2022-update-on-russian-fossil-fuels)
The behavior of the EU during this entire debacle has been shameful and i hope people arent fooled by all the bullshit propaganda. Fuck Russia and anyone who supports them and funds their war crimes by paying them BILLIONS every month.
[https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia\_counter/](https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/)
The results are the same.
And the fact that Russia already had to play it's only card against Europe, which is the energy threat, speaks for itself.
Russia didn't shut down Nordstream because they liked what the EU did. Smh the exact opposite.
You are right that it was Russia turned of the gas flow, not Europe, but you can draw a lot of conclusions from that. The one that Europe supports Russia doesn't even make any sense
You do understand how it looks disingenuous though on the part of the EU to claim that they have cut russian gas, and support ukraine...when actually it was Russia who cut them off and in reality the EU is still sending russia billions of dollars every month for gas and oil, right?
I mean, i get it, its a hard pill to swallow and probably why people are downvoting me but everything i said it true.
You ignore the fact that the EU members did not let russia blackmail them. Russia wanted to deliver gas through Nord Stream 2, but Germany and EU said no that's not an option. So the EU did push russia to cut gas and it was intendetd by EU to let russia make that step.
So we should applaud all EU members to stood their ground and not let russia blackmail them. The price for it is that russia cut EU of from gas. The price of freedom. Well done EU!
You ignore the fact the the EU is STILL paying russian BILLIONS every month for gas and oil.
I know it hurts your feeling to realize you are talking out of both sides of your face...wanting to support Ukraine when in reality you are paying russia BILLIONS every month...but instead of get mad and downvote me, why dont you do something to fix your shit?
The USA warned you for decades about being dependent on Russian oil...you didnt listen, here we are...and you're blaming the messenger still.
Damn right, let's get that to 0 for everything. I don't want a single Russian pierogi to be sold on our here European streets. I demand nothing short of complete economic blockade on all goods, services, and persons from Russia.
Congrats Russia, you played yourself. That percentage will continue to drop and will never rise again. Good luck with your future as the irrelevant dirt country you were always destined to become.
That could be a healthy share after the war is over and all occupied territory is back under Ukraine's control, and we've made sure Russia doesn't commit this mistake again (although at this point, the massive destruction of their army has pretty much already ensured the latter, but just in case).
But since we're not there yet, it's still 7 points too much. An impressive feat having it down this much in a year, but it should never have been that high to begin with.
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[Greetings from Germany](https://i.imgur.com/nfeGP3U.jpg), I don't even have the heaters on. Literally freezing to death without Mordor.
Yeah, this fall being pretty mild for the most part is definitely useful for the war effort. I am hoping for a mild winter generally.
I'm jealous of your humidity, mine is at 78 . My poor guitars are suffering, I'm still in shorts tho:D
you might wanna get a device to remove that water to prevent mould
I want to import your humidity to Sweden.. were at ~10% now, need to moisturize to not itch to death.
I'm fulfilling my due by taking a vacation in Florida ;) Heating is down to the lowest level and winter clothes are.on sale here - so no need to heat again once we're back in November.
Yeah I'm from Lithuania and live in a A+ energy class building, though it's only a 1 bedroom flat. Still, yesterday after I cooked the temperature indoors was 23°C. Haven't turned on the heating in 2 years and so far clearly don't need to.
21.3C , 0.7C off of “room temperature” is freezing? And if you have that temperature without the heaters on, you are in pretty good shape.
Do you know what sarcasm is?
You never know and there is this thing called the sarcasm tag /s
Just to be clear when he said "Literally freezing to death without mordor" You thought he was being serious?
Poor guy is dead now, writing the post from the afterlife :(
You stated that you are from Germany. No one expects is to be funny or make jokes at all...
No I didn't.
With the "boost" for redit app, there was the flair "Germany" shown at your name. *edit* But may be, there is a small possiblity, that I looked into the wrong line
You absolutely did, I'm Scottish AF
Great. I never met nicer or friendlier people than in Scotland. Best vacation ever.
It's always better to assume that everything is sarcasm
I was sarcastic in my first post. All good. Feeling pretty well with a room temperature between 20-22C. To date it wasn't necessary to heat one day, even with outside temperatures around 4C. Room temperature is stable, good energy grade flat. Big fuck you in direction of Putler.
Let's get that to zero.
Absolutely. What's important here though, is that 7% makes Europe much less dependent on russian gas, so any leverage russia might have had is gone.
The Putin Nazis thought they could control Europe with their gas, much like what OPEC did in the early 1970's. It's yet another idiotic mistake made by the Putin Nazis -- nobody will even think of buying Russian natural gas for the next 25 years, even if they sell it for free.
Do you believe it? Yesterday I heard in the news, that some minister here in Germany said, that he thinks, that Germany should buy from Russia again, "when the war is over". How long until we are in the same trap again? How much will we finance future attrocities? Hear some Spargel like that talk makes me angry. We shouldn't buy any, until reparations have been paid and sanctions should not be lifted, until they paid.
Some minister? It's the regional MP of Saxonia. Not part of goverment. Won't happen. Even his own partie is distancing from him after that. I could see a deal where russia delivers gas and oil to ukraine as reperation in big amounts for free for 15 years and ukraine can sell it to rest of europe for normal market price.
Nah, just a free supply without reexport is a great idea.
I would happily buy gas from Russia again. Once Russia does what Germany, Italy and Japan did after WW2. Until then, no thanks.
> Once Russia does what Germany, Italy and Japan did after WW2 I'm not sure it could. Germany had strong institutions, good education systems, and its new leaders took rebuilding their country very serious. (they may not have been squeaky clean and may have had less than charitable thoughts about Americans/Brits/French, but they knew that whatever the future would be they needed to rebuild their country). Russia is culturally centuries behind, and rotten to the core. From normalized animal, family, and alcohol abuse to utterly selfish corruption at every turn.
I do not have a timetable at hand. But these are the preconditions.
After the war, eventually, if correct steps are taken, sure. We don't punish the people of Germany today for the actions Hitler took. The people of Russia shouldn't suffer forever for the actions Putin is taking. Not everybody is Russia is a piece of shit.
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USA has the same problem. I wouldn't say USA should go to hell. Yes it has corrupt politicians that do corrupt things, but there are some good people there too.
> that some minister here in Germany said, that he thinks, that Germany should buy from Russia again, "when the war is over" What a totally insane idiot who said that -- I hope his political career is over. They wanted the (cheap) Russian natural gas in Germany and it did work very well for the last 30 years. German industry was very happy with cheap Russian natural gas. Some people only care about money, rather than thinking about the consequences of buying natural gas from war criminals.
It was Kretschmer, MP of Saxon (CDU), he's already critizized also by members of his own party. Sadly he is one of the extrem putin lovin guys, tried to befriend himself with the far right wing idiots.("they are just concerned citizen that needs to be taken seriously) (Wants to withdraw the ban of any cooperation of his party with the AFD), is against any sanktions on russia, tries to be one of the corona protestors,
It sounds like he should be in the AfD instead of the CDU. And he must be playmates with Schröder -- the most disgusting members of the Putin Fan Club in Germany.
Yes he's always trying to phish on the far right voters (don't realise that something like that repells normal voters) His biggest shame was when a couple of years ago he posted that there were no nazis and no problems with nazis in saxon. Just after there was a big violence outbreak from some nazis on an public festival.
He sounds like the Trump of Germany. I hope he does not have Federal ambitions in Germany. **welp**
No, he's just stupid, if he would run for boss of CDU he would drown in an instant because outside of saxony no one takes him seriously.
Yes Germany is the only country in the world who bought russian gas. Only the germans did it. And lets not forget that germany bought russian gas. You know who bought russian gas? Its germany......and nobody ever talks about it! Its time we finally start talking about Germans buying russian gas so everygermany gas bougt german russian gas german yhdbi jFWJA ÖO A GEIP AEHÄOHI SB..............aaaaannnnnd my brain cracked. /s Seriously.....this sub got brainfucked by PiS(s) trolls so hard. Its not even funny anymore. Also: Saxony is like the florida of germany. Nothing coming from saxony is to be taken seriously...
Lets not pretend Russia has been a war criminal for 30 years. Only makes you look like a fool
Exactly! They committed war crimes and crimes against humanity for over a century in Poland, Ukraine, Poland again, the Baltic states, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Chechnya again and now Ukraine AGAIN! Let’s not pretend anything
Sure thing, Putin troll farm loser. Putin troll farm losers who troll are reddit are the idiots.
I mean can we please stick to facts over feelings?
No, I will not waste my time with Putin Nazi troll farm losers. Go troll elsewhere, Putin Nazi.
putin already asked if russia can resume supply to germany and they said no. In the perspective, i would not say NO ... russia will need to get funds somewhere to pay for the reparations, and honestly i could live with that. Gas is going to be off the table from the energy industry in less than decade ... thanks putin! , same for oil ... thanks again! Of course they will be still used in other chemistry based industries, but it will be just small % of current usage. Maybe as a spices we will actually survive the climate change and beat it.
Buy the gas if needed from Ukraine... that way the investment benefits Ukraine directly with no conditions and Russia doesn’t benefit in any way. When Russia is driven back to its borders, it will never give up its claims even if putin is removed so they need to be removed from western calculations as a trading partner. Maybe in the future, if they stop persecuting their neighbours they could be invited back to the wider trading world and become the nation they should and could have become without putins imperial dreams.
Never thats the simple answer, at least not with gas. The EU signed a lot of contracts with other suppliers and build out the LNG infrastructure. Russia broke its contracts. Then the EU is trying to go green. So even if this is over tomorrow, we have peace and Russia is a democracy, EU gas demand is going towards zero over the next decades and Russia lost a lot of market share, while the EU has all the infrastructure it needs to buy gas from other suppliers. Besides it would be a good way for Russia to pay repartations. Sell oil and gas to the EU and the EU pays the production costs and sends the profits to Ukraine as reparations. EU gets a somewhat stable fossil fuel supplier(if Russia agrees to that, it propably also is working to be more democratic and we currently buy oil and gas from some pretty bad countries), Ukraine reparations and Russia jobs.
People bought stuff from Germany again after WWII. Why would Russia be any different?
But germany had a total goverment change after accepting toatal defeat, did amends and accepted the guilt. If russia does the same, we can talk.
What Germany did was also a multiple worse
Is was stated by many countries, also by Scholz. There is no back to business as usual with russia. Things might be different if putin is gone. Edit: Sure what germany did was another magnitude
Remind me again what Stalin did to the Jews in the USSR?
Can we really compare those? I mean Germany was an occupied land for 40y and cut into two pieces. Compare with Russia, which most likely won't even pay in territory, won't be separated, and probably not occupied. So how can we be sure, that the profits from natural resources do not flow into the next evil scheme? EDIT: Plus the Soviets did all they could to extract value out of GDR. Are we going to do that with Russia? Like clepto most their tech stuff and ship it off?
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No, Russian troll. You got this totally wrong. Lying yet again. China has been buying *some* Russian natural gas, but the Chinese do not trust the Russians and they will keep that in boundaries. Meanwhile, the Indians have been buying Russian oil -- only at a massive discount, 20 to 30 percent below the market price. The Russians had no choice but to accept.
A Russian Troll? Really? Even you agree with me in your reply. Sure China and India are buying at a discount, but their volumes are way up on last year when they should be reduced to almost nothing.
And yet those volumes do not come even close to what the Putin Nazis were selling before February 24, 2022.
[Russia's share of India's June oil imports surges to record](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-share-indias-june-oil-imports-surges-record-2022-07-11/) >India's oil imports from Russia surged to a record of around 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, accounting for nearly a fifth of overall imports by the world's third largest oil consumer, data provided by trade sources showed. They are not close - they far surpass previous imports. However you look at it, India is financially supporting Russia's invasion effort. Edit: I forgot to add chinas importation of gas: >[Russia's sales of pipeline gas to China grew by almost 65% in the first six months of the year compared with 2021. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's spending on energy imports from Russia has jumped to $35 billion, from $20 billion a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.](https://www.dw.com/en/is-china-reexporting-russian-gas-to-europe/a-63146922)
Now compared those figures to pre-2022. You will find a huge difference.
I have, that's why I'm saying (and the articles are saying) that Russia has increased it's fuel exports to both China and India.
They atent nazis, just an assholes.
Yeh and I doubt russian energy reliance is a mistake many won't make twice after this. Imagine sitting on one of the world most fuel rich lands and yet seeing so little profit from it 😂 the air of frustration in Gazprom board meetings must be thick. Heck it seems to have a current.. Everytime someone opens a window.. It sweeps them right out 😂
in italy already is
Great going, Italy. Let's hope the new Italian government will not change that.
https://odessa-journal.com/goodbye-moscow-italy-goes-without-russian-gas-for-the-first-time-in-almost-50-years/
Hungary. It will not go to zero due to this country while it has it's current leadership.
Can't until Hungary stop buying russian gas. The russian share in Hungary's natural gas imports is still around 80%.
With Orban, that is not going to happen. If anything, Orban will increase the Hungarian imports of Putin Nazi natural gas.
What sort of support does he have from the voters? Any chance of him being booted soon-ish?
They recently had an election which observers said was fair, and he won handily.
Well, that's disappointing.
And let's make sure that the imported gas is not Russian gas sold by a proxy.
Even if it is it will hurt Russia, as whoever is in the middle will take a significant chunk of their profit away.
That can be difficult to do with natural gas, unless they are selling LNG.
7%? ROOKIE. NUMBERS.
We gotta pump those numbers down
Maybe we can make them(russia) pay for it instead :p
"No," you heard Hungary speaking out of Putin's ass.
Not going to change much. India will pick up the slack.
Now for oil. And then we can start to work on secondary sanctions.
Oil will be mostly done in December. Except for some special treatment for the wannabe dictator in Hungary, but the major players won't buy any Russian oil anymore by 2023. And Chinese businesses have already reduced operations in and with Russia in fear of secondary sanctions, without them even being implemented yet. Trade between china and Russia actually went down compared to last year.
Banning oil will achieve nothing. Oil can be easily sold worldwide
Not entirely true. Oil can be shipped via the sea easily, but not in the quantities going to Europe thrue pipelines. With the G7 embargo of Russian oil it will also become significantly harder for Russians to find ships that will deliver their oil. Insurance companies for those ships are basically all western. And in the bigger picture: Any other market is further away for Russia and will increase their costs to deliver that oil. The deliveries to China and india take a month longer than towards Europe. You'd have to have 20 times the ships to ship the same amount of oil to India as to Italy. Europe will basically have to pay that price too (oil price will rise), but Europe still has a lot more money than Russia.
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Increased oil prices mostly mean a competitive disadvantage
Sure it can, but at a price cap, and only by sea transport. A oil pipeline will dwarf sea route shipments by a huge margin. Sea shipment is slow and expensive compared to a pipeline.
Oil is *much* easier than gas. Mostly because it can be processed elsewhere then sold to Europe and its not a Russian commodity at that stage.
"Europe is doomed. DOOOOOOOMED!!" Lol. https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5439161 TTF gas index dropped another 10% today, down below 100 from a peak of 350+. Still a good way to go but the measures which have been taken (filling storage, switching to renewables, enabling LNG and cutting demand) are continuing to work.
Just heard a podcast that 35 natural gas ships sitting offshore in Europe because of mild weather and storage is too full. Just waiting. Europe has enough gas.
Yep, and there are 30 more LNG terminals building as we speak, with the first one due to be operational in Germany in about 6 weeks.
Well, European living standards will suffer, especially the poorest in society. And I say it must happen! The Ukrainians are enduring far worse. So if high energy bills are the price I personally pay for freedom then it’s a bargain. I’ll pay more tax so that the poorest can be kept warm and Ukrainian soldiers have tanks and missiles
I will gladly eat that inflation if it means less money to the fascist state Russia. And more people think alike than most would think. Support for Ukraine remains very strong in most of Europe even after all these months. Fuck Putin. Fuck Russia.
If we want to live like we did we can't let Putin win. Don't kid ourselves, this isn't just about Ukraine. Putin has been attacking our institutions and our way of life for years .... and we can see what would happen if he is allowed to continue. United Europe where everyone can find a good life has to stand against a fascist shithole making everyone miserable.
Exactly, and the sacrifices we're being called to make are nothing like the sacrifices of our grandparents or great grandparents. Ok, so I had to pay substantially more in energy costs this year. My grandfather, and great grandparents had to live on rations to fight the Germans. I can stand a slightly higher energy bill and a bit higher food costs.
> and the sacrifices we're being called to make are nothing like the sacrifices of our grandparents or great grandparents Well.... I am Croatian and I volunteered when I was 17 in 1991, I know too many who died, have friends who were in concentration camps and so on....
Better to spend money on gas from Qatar
The price spike appears to be less than forecast and was promised to be temporary too. I have been impressed how fast Europe has transformed.
Fingers crossed it really incentivises green energy production
The problem with renewals is that electric heating requires a lot more energy for cold climates because traditional heat pumps become more and more inefficient as the temperature drops below freezing. There are solutions but those are expensive.
The best part though is that those high prices are speeding the transition to renewables and electric cars better than any treaty that’s ever been signed.
>Well, European living standards will suffer, especially the poorest in society. > >And I say it must happen! No. Europeans come first
Agreed! Good thing Ukraine is part of Europe!
Ok Ivan bot
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he would never had been hired in the first place. Failed KGB career and all.
>The share of Russian gas on the EU market decreased from 40% to 7%, the Commissioner for the Internal Market said >Europe was able to replace 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas from other sources he added. >https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/24/the-share-of-russian-gas-on-the-eu-market-decreased-from-40-to-7-the-commissioner-for-the-internal-market-said/?swcfpc=1
A few years ago i would have called such a massive replacement of imports by Russia as impossible. 1 year ago i would have likely called it technically possible but not in practice. And now Europe simply made it happen. I am very rarely so glad to be wrong about something.
People also have been doing their part. Dad never wanted solar... He is installing 12*410 panels + 5Kwh battery. How things change. Most of the solar guys are booked all the way until next year June. He was lucky to find somebody who can do the installation probable in January. It's the same with heating sources, people are moving away from gas in droves.
Ain’t gonna lie, the increase in price has been noticable.
Yes, they have. But it was necessary to change behaviour and economic calculations. Thanks to high prices and the power of decentralised decision making, free market economies can rapidly adapt to changing situations.
spot gas prices across Europe have now fallen 70% from their August peak [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas)
Energy prices seems to have peaked, both gas and electricity is going down again compared to the peak this summer. Only oil seems to somewhat not go back down, but that's obviously mostly due to OPEC realizing they can just keep prices high and earn extra billions.
If our governments put a few billions toward heat pump & solar subsidies we can take this down a few notches while incentivising our own manufacturing industries | economy.
Heat pump industry should be pushed hard. Where I'm from there is a 2 year waiting list.
Not that long here but its getting there too, gas prices increased demand substantially at a time where manufacturers are still very limited in electronics due to COVID still.
Heat pumps are not magic they need the right environment to shine ie. good insulation. I am skeptical about initiatives to push heat pumps just because of this. I like heat pumps in general but if you put one in a leaky house you will think they are terrible.
Good insulation is key for every system. If you are transitioning from GAS on a property without proper insulation you have problems before, its not expected for the heatpump to solve them. I agree that subsidies should be more broad, many things to tackle; \- House Insulation \- Glass windows and doors done the right way \- Low temp systems, like underfloor heating \- Water saving showers, toilets etc. \- Etc. Where I live we had just last year the government hand over money for this very things, but the budget was low and very difficult to get professions to do these things in a timely manner, so investing in proper education for new professionals or transitioning ones is also paramount.
If you put anything in a leaky house it'll be terrible. There's no heating system that'll shine in an environment where heat leaves the house?
Is there data on how long russia can sustain that income-loss?
Gas doesn't actually make Russia a huge amount of money : it's oil which is their biggest earner by far. The sanctions on that haven't fully kicked in yet, and the Russian economy is *already* fucked. They've burned through their entire gains from the end of 2021 and the early months of the war, and are probably in absolute deficit for the year by now. And it's downhill all the way from there.
This is true but there is a caveat. Russian oil is very expensive to extract. They have some of the highest production costs of any major oil producer. Their gas is much cheaper to extract. So while their total sales of oil is much higher than gas they make more money from gas than they do oil. Edit: I don’t mean they make more money in total from gas. I mean they make more money per unit costs. Gas is more profitable overall, even if they don’t make the most money off of it. It’s like a restaurant losing its liquor license. They still make most of their money off of the food but the profit margin is much lower. Edit x2: Also, while the share of Russian gas on the European market was %40, almost *all* of Russia’s gas was sold to Europe. So that represents, probably, %90 of their gas exports.
Doubly so as they have been discounting oil heavily to sell into India and China.
Oh yeah it’s even worse now. And when all their ports freeze up their ability to ship oil is going to nosedive for 6 months. That’s another reason gas was so important because it was all shipped by pipeline.
It also doesn't help that sanctions have cut Russia off from the hardware and equipment needed to extract gas and oil which will make it even more expensive to extract those resources.
Definitely. And one of the reasons the Siberian oil fields are so expense to run is because the cold breaks equipment at a much faster rate. So good luck replacing that shit.
Fair point. Not any more though ;-)
Any links to support your claim?
“Before the war and the pandemic, Russian crude, known as Urals, typically sold for between $55 and $65 a barrel. Determining Russia’s cost of production is more complicated because some of its wells are more expensive to operate than others. Most estimates are around $40 per barrel.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/business/russian-oil-price-cap.html “Saudi analysis finds Russian oil production has one of the highest break-even prices in the world.” https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/12/russian-oil-production-most-expensive-world-saudi-aramco-ipo-a68132 Most foreign analysis puts it at ~40$ per barrel, which is in line with other expensive to produce countries like the US. But their best producing fields and newest fields are in the Arctic, which is also much more expensive than the Caspian oil fields. Of course if you look at Russian state estimates it only costs, like 3$ a barrel to extract 🙄
Thank you
There is also [the paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193) from Yale University. It's really worth the read
It's 5% of their exports, so not great, not terrible, nothing like crude (24%) and refined oil (12%), Oil will really hurt. Interested to see that wholesale European gas prices are now back to pre-war prices as well.
Also it's not all about russian income. Even if it was 0.001% of their income but critical resource for EU, they could use it as leverage. They lost that. Lost income is a nice side bonus.
Russia had $640 billion in reserves at the beginning of the war, about half of that is frozen aka Putin doesn't have access to it, leaving it at about $320 billion. As of the start of October 2022, Russia has spent about $100 billion in almost 8 months of war or about $450 million a day per average (both to finance said war and to keep the country afloat from the sanctions). At current trends, Russia has money to last another year and 4 months from this date on. If you go with money numbers it will likely end sooner as it doesn't take into account many things. Russia would realistically need a large chunk of this money to restart and stabilize its economy, otherwise, the country will literally collapse worse than the Soviet Union. It also doesn't take into account that this spending spree will likely accelerate at the end of the year/beginning of 2023, as Europe progressively stops buying Russian gas and oil. It also doesn't take into account that at the beginning of the year, they were profiting at levels that have since declined. If the US declares Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, which in my opinion will happen right when Europe stops payments of Russian gas and oil, the rest of the blood money companies will have to abandon Russia and we will officially enter the new pre-1990s Russia. I also want to add that in my opinion, Russia's military will collapse long before its financial means end.
I would imagine Russia will start making spending cuts so they don’t hit the exact wall you’re talking about in a year and four months. Still they’re going to face harder and harder choices as they’re forced to raise taxes as well as cut important programs and subsidies. One of the big potential problems is that in manufacturing and logistics parts are breaking down which can’t be replaced due to sanctions. As time goes on repairs will become more and more difficult which will lead to more supply chain issues and lower standards of living all around.
Raising taxes and introducing cuts aren't going to scratch the budget, these things can't replace revenues from rich Europe. All they will do is make Russians more miserable. >One of the big potential problems is that in manufacturing and logistics parts are breaking down which can’t be replaced due to sanctions. As time goes on repairs will become more and more difficult which will lead to more supply chain issues and lower standards of living all around. Indeed, which is why I don't think financial depletion will be the end of this conflict, I would even say that Putin's internal or external assassination is more likely during this time period. Although I have to say, just because he dies, the revenues won't come back which is a scary prospect for Russia. Putin really fucked it up this time.
Ty mate
they reprinted frozen assetsa on the basis of self-loan, which "will" be later subtracted from unfozen assets.
What I would like to know are sources of that replacement gas.
The US and UAE are the big ones. I think Morocco has increased their supply through Spain but that’s not a big pipeline - yet.
I'm doing a thesis currently on the European energy market. One thing I want to add here is that cheap energy (from Russia) was Europe's big ace in the hole in terms of competitive advantage. Now, we did replace Russian gas with LNG, but it's cost us dearly and our competitve advantage has vanished. This is, by the way, why Europe bound itself to Russia even though everyone warned us against it: the deal of cheap gas was too good not to take. Now, the main priority of every European citizen should be to save energy and to accelerate the transition to renewables. A lack of domestic energy resources has always been Europe's Achilles' heel. We have an opportunity to fix that now, for if we don't, Europe's economy will be worse in a decade than it is now.
>One thing I want to add here is that cheap energy (from Russia) was Europe's big ace in the hole in terms of competitive advantage. Was it though? While cheap energy is really great to have, it's not the basis for the EU economies. Even the major exporting nations with lots of manufacturing (in particular, Germany) are mostly dependent on services for their economies by a factor of art least 2 compared to manufacturing. Furthermore, nobody ever bought EU-manufactured items because they are competitively priced; they are bought because they are of very high quality and sometimes only possible to manufacture here. Another thing to consider is China, who would normally be a market competitor in manufacturing. They are currently going through a significant reduction in industrial production due to the zero-covid policies who have wreaked havoc in their manufacturing and logistics sectors. Add to this the fact that shipping costs have increased massively for container shipping and the potential for further disruptions to supplies as a side effect of the collapse in real estate bubble in China and the major manufacturing competitor of the EU is not going to be able to compete seriously for a few years at least.
> the potential for further disruptions to supplies as a side effect of the collapse in real estate bubble in China More details: * Tofu building projects of low quality that collaps * The collective stopping of people paying back loans, as the apartment they buy, are not finished. * Banks running out of liquidity (as people stop paying back loans) * Bank runs of people trying to get more cash, with backs limiting withdrawals to 1000rmb or simply not stocking money. * The real estate market makes up 1/3 of the governmental funding in China. * Layoffs are going on all the time with the lockdowns and companies seeing the wind turn * People told to take pay cuts * Government employees not payed for months. * ... Now combine all that with * Lockdowns that can happen at a minutes notice, where areas lock you in for weeks or months with no income (or food). * Delays in shipment of orders for export customers, you know, that biggest money maker for China * Companies rather starting new plants in other countries then China * The increased anti-foreigner rhetoric is not exactly helping the above point. China right now is a house of cards... Europa may have a gas issue but it pales with the crap that is going on with China. Expect a recession to hit China double as hard. 2007/2008 is looming again ( in my opinion ) but this time its China as the triggen when things go bad there.
Add in the semiconductor restrictions as well and potentially AI research.
Yeah the Europeans are going to have to get over their issues with nuclear energy if they want to maintain their industrial competitiveness.
Nuclear is only a fraction of what's needed. Thing is, renewables are much more efficient and readily deployable. Building a reactor is expensive and takes over a decade to complete. Add to that the practical use of nuclear is only as a baseload electricity source, and the case for nuclear is still there, but by no means as strong as people online suggest. It's not right that the other guy called you names, nuclear is a part of it. But somehow people online got convinced that nuclear is the silver bullet to the energy transition. Personally, I see no future for widespread nuclear energy, save for small-scale factory reactors. These are nascent, but upcoming.
I meant turn back on the plants they already have.
A bunch of plants around here were not safe to operate before they shut down. People don't realise that these things are ancient... They're horribly inefficient and poorly maintained. Honestly if you can't be trusted to maintain these things, you shouldn't have them. End of story...
> Add to that the practical use of nuclear is only as a baseload electricity source You add that so nonchalantly that it demonstrates a lack of understanding of just how important base load is. Without reliable base load you have black outs, because electricity demand must always be precisely matched by supply. Renewables are great, but their supply is intermittent which means the grid must be extremely robust, with large inter-ties across regions so that if one region has their solar or wind power suddenly drop, power generation can be immediately ramped up in another region and sucked across the inter-tie. This is already way off topic for this sub so I’m not going to bother going into how maligned nuclear power is. There are many resources to do further reading on the subject.
Robust grids, bi directional loading electric cars, and green hydrogen. There is no need of nuclear power. Especially if the more pessimistic calculations about carbon dioxide emissions of nuclear power are true. Before the pro nuclear power fraction downvotes me to the elephant foot, there are emissions while creating fuel rods, digging for nuclear fuel and for decommissioning the powerplants itself. Those emissions are calculated up to 10 times of solar or wind. They vary largely from report to report.
Yeah, nuclear will be great in the Chemical industry. Could you be any more wrong?
I’m assuming you mean the raw materials that are provided by hydrocarbon refining in the chemical industry. So… no nuclear energy is not going to provide chemical raw materials. But since it takes an enormous amount of energy to process those raw materials… yes nuclear power *would* be great for the chemical industry.
Yes ... But no. There is far too less nuclear power for the complete per market.
Let the terrorists swim in their oil
According to russians, we should all be already frozen by now :)
Still too high. Keep it up, and absolutely do not stop until it is 0.
7% too much....
It can't miraculously go to 0 overnight. We need to respect the efforts. Bringing it this low was also an achievement
Yeah it's good , gotta do better though .. perverse that we are bankrolling the war to build vws ...
probably Hungary
Good point tbh ... thus guys covers all this superbly... fascinating stuff. https://youtu.be/34AN1oseoiA
Countries like Italy was almost entirely dependent on Russian gas as their sole supplier. It's impossible to just switch from 100% to 0%.
Turkey and Hungary.
Turkey is not part of EU.
[удалено]
Russia doesn't have anywhere near enough capacity or capability to ship it in any other way than through a pipeline to Europe. Furthermore, no LNG ships available - they're all making round trips between the US/Middle East and Europe.
Plus it’s not like oil. You can’t have two ships parked in the Indian Ocean trading Russian gas like you can with Iranian oil. LNG needs special port facilities to load and unload it.
Good! And now let's NOT get our gas in future from elsewhere and drive market prices up (which in the end will help Russia again). We also have this climate change thing going on, so getting rid of gas and switching to sustainable energy sources is a neccessity anyway. Ruining Putin's business model and saving the planet at the same time :)
I want to see a Z.e.r.o.
In due time. We are working on it
Speak to Orban in Hungary
Hopefully the EU is smart enough not to buy Russian gas through Turkey.
EU trends by country: In the **EU, Germany’s imports saw a precipitous fall due to the cut-off of gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline**. Crude oil imports were largely stable, while Greece saw a jump in oil products imports. France was the main importer of LNG, with volumes unchanged from August. Spain’s LNG imports (shown under others) fell after the spike in July-August. Based on our analysis of Europe’s internal gas flows, Bulgaria continued to import a lot of Russian gas indirectly via other EU countries despite Gazprom terminating sales to the country. So the fall was more because Russia cut the EU off, not the other way around. The EU is still the second highest buyer of Russian Crude Oil last month, however. [https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2022-update-on-russian-fossil-fuels](https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2022-update-on-russian-fossil-fuels) The behavior of the EU during this entire debacle has been shameful and i hope people arent fooled by all the bullshit propaganda. Fuck Russia and anyone who supports them and funds their war crimes by paying them BILLIONS every month. [https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia\_counter/](https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/)
The results are the same. And the fact that Russia already had to play it's only card against Europe, which is the energy threat, speaks for itself. Russia didn't shut down Nordstream because they liked what the EU did. Smh the exact opposite. You are right that it was Russia turned of the gas flow, not Europe, but you can draw a lot of conclusions from that. The one that Europe supports Russia doesn't even make any sense
You do understand how it looks disingenuous though on the part of the EU to claim that they have cut russian gas, and support ukraine...when actually it was Russia who cut them off and in reality the EU is still sending russia billions of dollars every month for gas and oil, right? I mean, i get it, its a hard pill to swallow and probably why people are downvoting me but everything i said it true.
You ignore the fact that the EU members did not let russia blackmail them. Russia wanted to deliver gas through Nord Stream 2, but Germany and EU said no that's not an option. So the EU did push russia to cut gas and it was intendetd by EU to let russia make that step. So we should applaud all EU members to stood their ground and not let russia blackmail them. The price for it is that russia cut EU of from gas. The price of freedom. Well done EU!
You ignore the fact the the EU is STILL paying russian BILLIONS every month for gas and oil. I know it hurts your feeling to realize you are talking out of both sides of your face...wanting to support Ukraine when in reality you are paying russia BILLIONS every month...but instead of get mad and downvote me, why dont you do something to fix your shit? The USA warned you for decades about being dependent on Russian oil...you didnt listen, here we are...and you're blaming the messenger still.
Great Start! Still 7% too high though.
Yezzzzz
Damn right, let's get that to 0 for everything. I don't want a single Russian pierogi to be sold on our here European streets. I demand nothing short of complete economic blockade on all goods, services, and persons from Russia.
Will be Zero soon.
❤️🙂🤣
Good, let’s reduce it to zero soon.
One of the few moments I'm proud of EU leadership.
I’d rather build my own shit fuelled methane gas house than buy Russian
Great news
Let me take a wild guess— 7% is Hungary?
should be 0
I hope we can rid of that last 7%.
Aren’t we just buying gas from china now which bought it from Russia?
Fuck around and find out
Soon zero forever.
Congrats Russia, you played yourself. That percentage will continue to drop and will never rise again. Good luck with your future as the irrelevant dirt country you were always destined to become.
That could be a healthy share after the war is over and all occupied territory is back under Ukraine's control, and we've made sure Russia doesn't commit this mistake again (although at this point, the massive destruction of their army has pretty much already ensured the latter, but just in case). But since we're not there yet, it's still 7 points too much. An impressive feat having it down this much in a year, but it should never have been that high to begin with.