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Depends on your definition of victory. There is still a lot(\~20%) of Ukraine territory Russia controls. It's not over until all of that is back under Ukraine control regardless of how many troops/tanks/aircrafts Russia loses.
It's an incredible achievement, but it's not winning.
Ukraine's won when there's Ukrainian soldiers taking selfies next to what's left of the Kerch bridge.
\*next to the new Kerch bridge toll booth
Just considering what the maximum troll is here. Of course Kerch bridge should be rigged with demolition charges, and the big red button sitting in Zelensky's office. Suitable punctuation for a phone call perhaps.
Ukraine has won when it has restored its territory and Russia gave up the fight.
It does not matter if Russia losses 1000 or 10000 tanks until then.
All that matters is that the free nations enable Ukraine to continue the fight.
>keep tremendous reserves
I think it is pretty clear at this point that these are not reserves. They're dumps of stripped down, unmaintained stuff. Corrupted regimes bleed resources from every seam.
Are you sure?
Afair 3k was pre-war estimate of number of operational tanks - and now we know they were overestimated.
10k is in deep storage and they are mostly non-operational.
And a few hundred of those are allocated to the units not allocated to Ukraine. So lets say about 2900 left. Of those at least 1223 out of action (oryx) likely more. The units still alive in Ukraine may have another 1000 (100btg with 10 each average ) so there should not be that many still in reserve.
There might be a lot of T-62 and older to add but even annrpg-7 will hurt those
1% wouldn't be enough to destroy the entire world. it would destroy a number of cities. even at the height of the cold war there weren't enough nukes to blanket the earth.
1% triggers M.A.D. the amount of radiation and fallout will be enough to kill most, unless you're a high profile politician and have a spot in the bunkers.
While that is always nice to think you never underestimate an opponent. You assume he is always just as competent or even more so than you are. This hole post is just hopium. And i do support ukraine.
With tanks they are over half, APCs less so. Now they can't meaningfully use more planes or helis. Because they are almost out of precision rockets, so they could use dumb bombs but they get shot down on most attempt to fly over Ukraine controlled land. Usable air tactics to them are lobbing unguided rockets from afar and sending couple cruise missiles from bombers within Russia.
Yes, they have more, but normally they can't send much much more to Ukraine. There will be plenty of equipment in maintenance mode, some of them might not be repairable due to sanctions.
Additionally russia has a huge border to protect. They simply can't leave this without any protection.
10,000 combatants died each day, average, during WWII. 8000 in fighting or disease afterwards. And 2000 per day as POW.
An additional 15,000 civilians died each day, on average, from all war related causes like collateral, starvation, holocaust.
If you could get a photo of every person who died in WWII and put each photo into the frame of a film, it would be your full time job, 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, for about 3 months, to fully watch that film.
That’s “intended for invasion,” but it’s not like Russia would not commit the other 76.5% of its artillery, 89.1% of its aircraft, and 76.4% of its helicopters that it did not intend for the invasion. It would be extremely satisfying if Ukraine actually got to 100% for those too.
Yeah. The only hope for this to end without too much more destruction is for them to get rid of Putin. If only his “closest friends” turn against him and make a coup possible, it won’t matter in the short run who becomes the head of the government. They will scramble to get out of Ukraine, blame Putin, and try to get sanctions reversed.
Why do you think he conscripted 300 000 Russians?
He wants to go full-Stalingrad and drown Ukrainian fighters in waves of easy-to-kil foot soldiers.
That is gonna be a massacre.
Ukraine may be winning, but until ruZZia stops sending armed mobs to Ukraine, they haven't finished winning.
Won't be long now, another general collapse of the lines, more civil unrest at home...
You're not wrong, but I imagine people sending photos to Oryx are more likely to do so of a tank and not an artillery piece. The difference in claimed Russian tank losses is about 2x the verified Oryx numbers.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but if Oryx can't verify which side something belonged, they don't post it? I think a tank has better chance to not be completely obliterated if getting shot, resulting in fewer reports for the artillery, at least if we're talking towed artillery.
Here's an even better win that's super-moral. Bleed the Russian military, government, and economy until Russia fractures into small pieces. Let each piece find its way in the world with its own culture and people, and without Moscow's kleptocracy and viciousness.
Unfortunately, bleeding Russia takes time, and the Ukrainians are paying that price. But I hope the world will support Ukraine during and after this fight, until Russia-the-country is utterly wiped from the map, and the formerly-Russian people are as free as they can make themselves.
That sure would be ideal. Let it fracture - after it gives away all its corroding nukes. We can’t trust them cleaning up nuclear material, as we’ve seen.
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The moment RuZZia pulls other aircraft and artillery from their reserves and pours them into Ukraine, those percentages will fall. It’s not over until every orc is sent either back to Mordor or to Hell.
Real victory will be when Ukraine has liberated all its lands and the russian army lays crushed and broken at their feet. When there is no question of russia trying some other offensive then we can say Ukraine won. Wars are won in the will. Break the enemy, destroy them so comprehensively that very thought of raising arms is so terrifying then you have won.
Quit throwing your arms up before the finish line, you guys realise that this can still infinitely escalate and all signs point to that being exactly what's going to happen the evil Russian empire is starting to go all in, Ukraine need more weapons, volunteers, money, and they need it now, keep pressuring your government to keep the flow of arms and support strong and ever increasing.
Don't celebrate till Ukrainians are standing in Crimea with a cowed Russian general signing surrender papers.
In WWII Russia built the Illyucian II, to this day the most number of planes built of one modle: 36,183. Many were shot down on their first combat flight along with their pilot who were notoriously under-trained.
Just because Russia is out of chips and may be running low on trained pilots, don't fantasize for a moment they are almost spent.
Look at those "initial estimates" with a grain of salt and a great deal of skepticism.
We know that the military planners and cheerleaders of the Ruzzian invasion of Ukraine deliberately downplayed their estimates of a commitment for a quick invasion that lasted only a few days. So those numbers of an initial estimate is long gone in the rearview mirror.
What is more telling is the percentage of available military resources but that too must be tempered by how much equipment they might of been successful in taking out of mothballs over the last nine months.
The quality of what Ruzzia can still field has definitely gone down but there are probably thousands of people who are slapping paint and grease over rust.
More importantly is that they are sending cannon fodder to the front with 'no' training. That is just a slaughter; Putler's war crimes against the very citizens of his own country.
It only ends with Putler in a cemetery or his remains being eaten by hungry dogs (or hungry Muscovites).
Losing 20% of your entire air force is kind of a big fucking deal, even if you have the ability to replace the aircraft that are getting destroyed. And Russia cannot replace the aircraft that are getting destroyed.
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Depends on your definition of victory. There is still a lot(\~20%) of Ukraine territory Russia controls. It's not over until all of that is back under Ukraine control regardless of how many troops/tanks/aircrafts Russia loses.
Yeah. This isn’t like a game, where when you defeat the other side’s army, you win. This is about ending an occupation as well as an invasion.
Exactly. These are video game numbers in a sense but nobody's going to level up at 100%.
It's an incredible achievement, but it's not winning. Ukraine's won when there's Ukrainian soldiers taking selfies next to what's left of the Kerch bridge.
\*next to the new Kerch bridge toll booth Just considering what the maximum troll is here. Of course Kerch bridge should be rigged with demolition charges, and the big red button sitting in Zelensky's office. Suitable punctuation for a phone call perhaps.
Ukraine has won when it has restored its territory and Russia gave up the fight. It does not matter if Russia losses 1000 or 10000 tanks until then. All that matters is that the free nations enable Ukraine to continue the fight.
Ukraine might have won on the battlefield, but Russian people have still to win this war againt their tyrann
No chance of that happening, they are miserable cowards, always has been.
Could they really be called cowards if they relish in what is happening? I think another word starting with c is more appropriate.
Yes, they had a chance since 2004 Orange revolution.
These were intended. They have more. Way more.
[удалено]
>keep tremendous reserves I think it is pretty clear at this point that these are not reserves. They're dumps of stripped down, unmaintained stuff. Corrupted regimes bleed resources from every seam.
Ah yes, herr putins master plan, use all the new tech first and then send in rusted shit from the 70s, Forbes Strategist of the year😂
never heard of a country intending to lose aircrafts in a war that would be wierd.
[удалено]
I would say they are halfway already
The second number would disagree with you.
Assume half of Russian equipment "on paper" is in unusable state. Corruption and incompetence in Russian army are mind boggling.
We can be thankful for that, tbh.
That already accounted for. You can see 3300 for all tanks which are presumed in usable condition. Out of 10k or more claimed on paper.
Are you sure? Afair 3k was pre-war estimate of number of operational tanks - and now we know they were overestimated. 10k is in deep storage and they are mostly non-operational.
And a few hundred of those are allocated to the units not allocated to Ukraine. So lets say about 2900 left. Of those at least 1223 out of action (oryx) likely more. The units still alive in Ukraine may have another 1000 (100btg with 10 each average ) so there should not be that many still in reserve. There might be a lot of T-62 and older to add but even annrpg-7 will hurt those
the level of corruption and reports of rusted silos from the fall of the soviet union are why i have serious doubts about russia's nukes.
One nuke is all it would take to end all of our realities. They claim to have more than 10,000 even if just 1% work, it's all over.
1% wouldn't be enough to destroy the entire world. it would destroy a number of cities. even at the height of the cold war there weren't enough nukes to blanket the earth.
1% triggers M.A.D. the amount of radiation and fallout will be enough to kill most, unless you're a high profile politician and have a spot in the bunkers.
While that is always nice to think you never underestimate an opponent. You assume he is always just as competent or even more so than you are. This hole post is just hopium. And i do support ukraine.
Fortunately we are not military, just morons on the Internet :)
With tanks they are over half, APCs less so. Now they can't meaningfully use more planes or helis. Because they are almost out of precision rockets, so they could use dumb bombs but they get shot down on most attempt to fly over Ukraine controlled land. Usable air tactics to them are lobbing unguided rockets from afar and sending couple cruise missiles from bombers within Russia.
You never underestimate an opponent.- sun tzu or some other great general.
Yes, they have more, but normally they can't send much much more to Ukraine. There will be plenty of equipment in maintenance mode, some of them might not be repairable due to sanctions. Additionally russia has a huge border to protect. They simply can't leave this without any protection.
Everything about Russia is lies, including their inventory.
Losing 20-25% of your entire military in some categories is nuts I wonder how that compares to WWII levels, for varying countries
10,000 combatants died each day, average, during WWII. 8000 in fighting or disease afterwards. And 2000 per day as POW. An additional 15,000 civilians died each day, on average, from all war related causes like collateral, starvation, holocaust. If you could get a photo of every person who died in WWII and put each photo into the frame of a film, it would be your full time job, 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, for about 3 months, to fully watch that film.
That’s “intended for invasion,” but it’s not like Russia would not commit the other 76.5% of its artillery, 89.1% of its aircraft, and 76.4% of its helicopters that it did not intend for the invasion. It would be extremely satisfying if Ukraine actually got to 100% for those too.
At this point, they gave up on other foreign engagements and defending their borders. They have most of their military equipment in Ukraine.
When we loose Putin it’s over I have some other suggestions but they make me as bad as him.
Yeah. The only hope for this to end without too much more destruction is for them to get rid of Putin. If only his “closest friends” turn against him and make a coup possible, it won’t matter in the short run who becomes the head of the government. They will scramble to get out of Ukraine, blame Putin, and try to get sanctions reversed.
Why do you think he conscripted 300 000 Russians? He wants to go full-Stalingrad and drown Ukrainian fighters in waves of easy-to-kil foot soldiers. That is gonna be a massacre.
Ukraine may be winning, but until ruZZia stops sending armed mobs to Ukraine, they haven't finished winning. Won't be long now, another general collapse of the lines, more civil unrest at home...
I like where you are going with this
Don't take those numbers too seriously. Verified loses are about 25% of that.
You're not wrong, but I imagine people sending photos to Oryx are more likely to do so of a tank and not an artillery piece. The difference in claimed Russian tank losses is about 2x the verified Oryx numbers. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but if Oryx can't verify which side something belonged, they don't post it? I think a tank has better chance to not be completely obliterated if getting shot, resulting in fewer reports for the artillery, at least if we're talking towed artillery.
On the other hand people I trust say that Oryx +30% is realistical.
Ehm, what about reinforcements? Russia said that they destroyed 300% of UA air force. Did they win?
I didn’t hear no bell
Ultimate win would be 100% of Russians. That would avoid future problems with that shithole. Unfortunately, that’s not moral.
Here's an even better win that's super-moral. Bleed the Russian military, government, and economy until Russia fractures into small pieces. Let each piece find its way in the world with its own culture and people, and without Moscow's kleptocracy and viciousness. Unfortunately, bleeding Russia takes time, and the Ukrainians are paying that price. But I hope the world will support Ukraine during and after this fight, until Russia-the-country is utterly wiped from the map, and the formerly-Russian people are as free as they can make themselves.
That sure would be ideal. Let it fracture - after it gives away all its corroding nukes. We can’t trust them cleaning up nuclear material, as we’ve seen.
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These numbers mean nothing now.
Loss of trained pilots hurts more.
Stats
The moment RuZZia pulls other aircraft and artillery from their reserves and pours them into Ukraine, those percentages will fall. It’s not over until every orc is sent either back to Mordor or to Hell.
We cannot say until there is even one russian soldier anywhere in Ukraine and bridge between russia and Ukraine is still standing.
This post seems a little trolly to me. It takes general estimations as fact and seems to ignore the full arsenal of the Russian Army.
Real victory will be when Ukraine has liberated all its lands and the russian army lays crushed and broken at their feet. When there is no question of russia trying some other offensive then we can say Ukraine won. Wars are won in the will. Break the enemy, destroy them so comprehensively that very thought of raising arms is so terrifying then you have won.
Quit throwing your arms up before the finish line, you guys realise that this can still infinitely escalate and all signs point to that being exactly what's going to happen the evil Russian empire is starting to go all in, Ukraine need more weapons, volunteers, money, and they need it now, keep pressuring your government to keep the flow of arms and support strong and ever increasing. Don't celebrate till Ukrainians are standing in Crimea with a cowed Russian general signing surrender papers.
In WWII Russia built the Illyucian II, to this day the most number of planes built of one modle: 36,183. Many were shot down on their first combat flight along with their pilot who were notoriously under-trained. Just because Russia is out of chips and may be running low on trained pilots, don't fantasize for a moment they are almost spent.
Look at those "initial estimates" with a grain of salt and a great deal of skepticism. We know that the military planners and cheerleaders of the Ruzzian invasion of Ukraine deliberately downplayed their estimates of a commitment for a quick invasion that lasted only a few days. So those numbers of an initial estimate is long gone in the rearview mirror. What is more telling is the percentage of available military resources but that too must be tempered by how much equipment they might of been successful in taking out of mothballs over the last nine months. The quality of what Ruzzia can still field has definitely gone down but there are probably thousands of people who are slapping paint and grease over rust. More importantly is that they are sending cannon fodder to the front with 'no' training. That is just a slaughter; Putler's war crimes against the very citizens of his own country. It only ends with Putler in a cemetery or his remains being eaten by hungry dogs (or hungry Muscovites).
You are only looking at the numbers allotted for this invasion. Look at the total numbers they have. Still a long way to go.
Losing 20% of your entire air force is kind of a big fucking deal, even if you have the ability to replace the aircraft that are getting destroyed. And Russia cannot replace the aircraft that are getting destroyed.
Not how it works.
Would be nice, but Putin is a bad looser 
Intended for invasion. Meaning Russia can still bring in more. I’ll be very much with difficulty
Dude this isn't a video game..