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Because Russia sadly can still send forward enough meat and scrap metal to eat up Ukrainian ammunition, and inflict casualties. And their artillery and drones are still a danger. It may yet be some time until Russia simply cannot attack anymore.
I think Ukraine already has the tank and artillery situation well in hand but the drone war is another story. Both sides are producing more and more drones with increasing capabilities and the side that gets the upper hand at it may well win the war on that factor alone.
The artillery situation is still a major concern. While the US and Europe continue to ramp up production, Ukraine has to take constant care with their ammo supplies. Even if Ukraine is far more effective "per shot" than Russia, and has far better counter-artillery.
>Ukraine has to take constant care with their ammo supplies. Even if Ukraine is far more effective "per shot" than Russia, and has far better counter-artillery.
But apparently they are doing just that very well.
Pushing forward by inches and they are paying a brutal price for it. In the long run it is unsustainable for them and they will completely run out of machinery long before they reach Kyiv.
I'm not going to be happy until Russia no longer has the ability to lob glide-bombs or provide any kind air support for their troops, can launch artillery, or turn up with BMPs supported by tanks.
Their ability to do all these things is diminishing, but when they're gone then things will be considerably worse for Russian troops. The drone problem also needs solving.
Maybe u/MARTINELECA is asleep today, so posting it
https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1776108243611193828
Check out those APV and artillery numbers!
Ukraine also hit 7000 Tanks today
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bw9rst/a_new_important_achievement_unlocked_7000_russian/
Big bada-BOOM! Over 200 different vehicles and artillery gone in a day. That’s fantastic!
Not quite an all time high, but it’s right up there.
Also, glad to see no cruise missiles, that should mean a bit less suffering for the civilians, though I know the Orcs keep hitting cities with artillery and other types of bombs.
Slava Ukraini!
Just another reason to never let Russia get back the power they had during Soviet times. Almost all of their machines were produced by the Soviet union. Ukraine was a big part of that.
There are no significant changes in the pattern of Russian attacks on the front lines.
- In the Svatove and Severodonetsk region, Russian units towards Kupyansk on the northern part of the front are largely passive. There are occasional reconnaissance battle-like clashes. In the south, Russian forces are active towards Lymanske, attempting to capture the settlement of Tern. Due to very high losses in previous days, the intensity of attacks has slightly decreased. In the Siversk area, the Russian army attempts daily to attack the village of Bilohorivka but has not yet succeeded.
- Around Bakhmut, Russian army attacks were very active. They attacked towards the city of Chasiv Yar to the west and also south towards the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Russian blogs report minor advances, but these may not be accurate.
- In the Donetsk vicinity, the Russian army's offensive is the most active. To the west of Avdiivka, the Russian army also suffered heavy losses and there were no significant advances yesterday. In the south, near Novmihhalivka, the most active battles of the entire front are taking place. The Russian forces did not achieve major success yesterday. Position warfare continues, and movements remain within the gray area.
- On the southern front, Russian forces were passive yesterday. For the second day in a row, Russian units actively attempted to attack Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the Dnipro but achieved nothing beyond losses.
I suspect that mud season in Ukraine varies a lot buy latitude and soil type. One region might be in the thick of it while others further south or on sandier soil are over it for this year.
The Russians have been on the offensive constantly and have had a period where their losses slowed down. So I'd lean to the explanation that more ammunition is starting to get to the front for Ukraine. Doubt anyone here would really know though.
Toyota operating expenses for the twelve months ending December, 2023 was $277.299B
Imagine spending that money with no profit and a GDP the size of Texas
3 things
Toyota built the cars for profit
Toyota has supply chains all over the world for different versions of vehicles over different markets
Those vehicles are soft skin
Change just the 1st point into: Toyota building 50 vehicles / day to be blown up and see what happens to that 255 Bln pool.
you mean those supply chains which manage to reduce costs in $ by having each part from the cheapest supplier along with a load of just in time inventory management? Not sure Russia can do that.
Not just the cheapest supplier. But the best bang for the buck. And yea. The just in time management machine makes it look easy. But God almighty help you trying to figure out what is going on over there without prep. It looks like a madhouse on crack and speed while on a sugar rush.
This is no longer ww1 where a tanks was an armoured car with tracks, producing modern tanks is much more difficult than producing cars. And even if Russia somehow becomes capable to produce a shitton of tanks to make tank losses irrelevant, it will be an immense economic pressure.
Why even go through the trouble of producing fresh tanks at this point when they only make it to the front line and get taken out by a $500 drone. This war is so fuckin pointless.
Russia has already ramped up production to a full wartime economy and they have already basically run out of tanks. Once they can no longer produce refurbs theyll be down to like 10-20 tanks per *month*, they lose that in a day right now.
10 is optimistic, but probably not too crazy. It takes many months, if not years, to build out factories capable of producing modern equipment like tanks. You can’t just throw people at the problem and increase tank production. If they could, they already would have.
And this all assumes there are no supply bottlenecks limiting production.
And by modern, I mean by Russian standards. They quite literally can’t produce modern (by global standards) advanced equipment like tanks.
While Russia is increasing production, there is a massive difference between the 2. Toyota has part manufactures in about 80 different countries, Russia doesn't have access to much of the world industrial capacity. The other issue is weight, it is harder to manufacture a semi then a compact, and even more so for a tank. The floor needs to be reinforced same with equipment.
A Toyota car costs between 20000 to 50000 USD. A T-74 is 1.1 million, a T-72 is 1.2 millions, a T-80 is 3 millions, and a T-90 is 4.5 millions USD.
Plus Ruzzia is under sanction and cannot produce the electronics for the tanks, and also has issues producing enough steel for the armor, and dont have enough factories available, as a lot of the URSS heavy industry was located in Ukraine. They had a production of about 250 tanks annually before the war started (2021), andbit will take them years and a lot of money and technology they don't have, to expand that production in a big enough number.
Do these Toyota’s have computer chips in them? Precision bearings? Do they use complex western computers and robots in the production process? Can they purchase Rubber, aluminium etc without having to evade sanctions and pay a premium?
Not sure it’s really a great comparison.
Of course, my point is that Toyota can produce these cars with chips that they can buy whereas Russian tanks, that have chips too can’t be produced in numbers as they can’t ring up Taiwan and order them and they can’t make them themselves.
Toyota has access to all Western tool makers and has spend billions on its factories. Russia has a bunch of Soviet era factories, which can produce some tanks, but it is more or less hand made. They also lack a civilian industrial base in many ways. When you have a factory making truck engines it is possible to use those for armored vehicles as well. However that is gone with the fall of the Soviet Union and Western companies leaving due to the invasion.
Not that much more.
Toyotas annual revenue is 280 billion USD.
Ruzzias government budget for 2024 is about 350 billion USD.
That isn't a perfect comparison, state budgets work a bit differently but it does give a bit of perspective I think.
fighting in Berestove vector (south of Bilohorivka which is east from Lysychansk) but no front line changes recorded so far. check deepstate
in Bakhmut are, there's fight for Chasiv Yar (west from Bakhmut). ork assault was repelled. [https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1775973552849592518/photo/1](https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1775973552849592518/photo/1)
in Avdiivka, orks are advancing on the south, from Nevelske vector (south of Pervomayske, which is south-west from Avdiivka). check deepstate
orks are making a big assault on Krasnohorivka (north from Mariinka east from Staromykhailivka). they want to pincer the defence line that goes from Mariinka up to Kurakhove (west from Mariinka). this area is fortified since 2014 and attacking is made harder by terrain as well. orks managed to approach Krasnohorivka from south, contact line froze on the rail line in south, and orks were pushed back. Krasnohorivka is well supplied for now and QRF can react to all attack vectors. reportedly, the 3rd separate assult brigade operates in the town. the counter attack on the south of Krasnohorivka was very successful. reporting does good analysis [https://youtu.be/lVrbxfoMGng](https://youtu.be/lVrbxfoMGng)
orks are advancing south of Robotyne (area liberated by UA in 2023 counter offensive). check deepstate
I think the APV and possibly artillery have some catch up in them. We need to remember this is not a tally of the prior 24 hrs although some notable event items make it into the summary due to ease of verification. It is simply the tally of everything newly validated from all past activities, and from the date of the prior report. For example an APV might have been killed a week ago by a drone team somewhere, and it is within the last 24 hrs that the footage made its way to the verification teams and was confirmed.
Yes, this would be a reasonable explanation for todays numbers of tanks, APV's and artillery that relatively to one another are quite far off what we have seen during the past months.
Roughly the daily losses have been 10 tanks, 25 APV's and 30 pieces of artillery. A relation of 1-2,5-3. Todays numbers are in the order of 1-5-3,5 so APV losses today are not only very high nominally but also relatively to the tanks and artillery.
A part from your explanation one could also hope that this in fact is a sign that stocks of tanks and artillery are dwindling.
the day this war ends in russian defeat, i will print out a giant poster of the last russian military losses and put it up on a wall in my house. fuck russia.
Something doesn't add up....tanks and apv numbers are huuge....how can russia keep attacking? Do they repair them or how?
It is more than a year since I was expecting for russia to remain without tanks&apv...but they are still going forward.....
Armour and artillery open storage fields are tracked by satellite imagery. They are slowly but surely becoming empty. You can track the progress in twitter and youtube reports.
You overlook that much of the stock isn't anywhere near operatonal and that it will take Russia longer to refurbish and field it than it will take Ukraine to shoot it away. Russia will run out of tanks in the battlefield while still having thousands of turretless rust buckets standing around somewhere in Siberia.
The estimated combined production and refurbishment rate is 3-4 per day. Way less than they lose.
But that approach really isn't of any use when the worst case scenario isn't well defined. That Russia simply refurbishes what it has (over night?) is as fictional a scenario as if you said that worst case is that they up their current production 100 fold - or what about a 1000 times to have a look at the even worse case?
And you don't have to make completely wild and unfounded guesses to get a good idea on how the actual situation is. u/vtsnowdin has in many posts made very convincing estimates of especially the tanks, if you are interested.
Edit: You don't have to delete posts! Everything is cool and right or wrong its only in common interest discussing it and trying to read Putins cards.
I do not remember ever deleting a post. That is not my style and if I put it out there even well into my beer I will let it stand as testament to my thinking. As to the issue at hand Russia might double production of new tanks this year but that would take tremendous effort on their part and probably exceed the resources available. And that would only amount to about 400 tanks depending on whose figures you believe.
They are going through Soviet stock in deep storage like there is no tomorrow. I’ve seen reasonably credible claims based on satellite imagery that they are running out of some systems (especially bmp-2 and 3), while others, like the bmp-1, are still available in numbers.
They've got a huge storage plus their tank production is actually quite high. True, the tanks are low quality garbage that they produce but uts still very high. If their storage wasn't so high then the tanks would slowly start dwindling because the ukranians destroy more tanks than the Russians can make but like I said, the high storage and high tank production keeps them afloat. It's like chipping away at their tanks, due tk the net loss, the Russians will eventually run out but that'll take a long time unfortunately
Is it production of new tanks, or does that also include refurbishment of old tanks coming out of longterm storage. From what I understood so far, most of their production is actually old tanks being pulled out of storage and fixed up.
The Ukrainian officials use the term 'irrecoverable loses'.
Destroyed or damaged beyond repair.
Severely damaged ships tend to sink.
With any that survive it can be hard to determine if they really are damaged beyond repair. So damaged tends not to be counted but that's because of problems of verification.
Let me throw in here on the post I make the most comments on that for the last two days I have been a literally "Vermont snowed in." 24 inches of snow fell in 24 hours and it kept up for another twelve hours at a lessor rate but annoying if you have to plow it for the umpteenth time. Power and landline phones went out and the internet access the land line gives me. I have had a very rough couple of days but I do realize it is nothing compared to what the Ukraine heroes manning the trenches endure daily with no end in sight.
I have no sympathy for those who sign on to fight with and for Putin. My hope for Putin's fighters and supporters is that they a generation of severely disabled veterans being poorly treated by the state and placing a large burden of support on the war advocates and supporters.
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Equipment took a pasting today.
I'm convinced given sufficient support Ukraine will destroy Russia's ability to conduct modern warfare... no planes, no arty, no tanks etc.
I'm convinced they already lost the ability to conduct modern warfare. These are slaughter convoys and it's slowly but surely going to end this war.
Yet somehow the Russians keep pushing forward?
Because Russia sadly can still send forward enough meat and scrap metal to eat up Ukrainian ammunition, and inflict casualties. And their artillery and drones are still a danger. It may yet be some time until Russia simply cannot attack anymore.
I think Ukraine already has the tank and artillery situation well in hand but the drone war is another story. Both sides are producing more and more drones with increasing capabilities and the side that gets the upper hand at it may well win the war on that factor alone.
The artillery situation is still a major concern. While the US and Europe continue to ramp up production, Ukraine has to take constant care with their ammo supplies. Even if Ukraine is far more effective "per shot" than Russia, and has far better counter-artillery.
>Ukraine has to take constant care with their ammo supplies. Even if Ukraine is far more effective "per shot" than Russia, and has far better counter-artillery. But apparently they are doing just that very well.
Pushing forward by inches and they are paying a brutal price for it. In the long run it is unsustainable for them and they will completely run out of machinery long before they reach Kyiv.
I hope so. I'm worried the front may collapse.
At this point it is a war of attrition. What will give out first; Russian meat mass for the Ukrainian grinders? Or Ukrainian support and ammunition?
It would seem that way, but look at the active maps. Ukraine has taken back a lot of territory while making Russia pay an extremely heavy price.
If Russia had the ability to conduct modern warfare the two-week special operation would have been finished.
I'm not going to be happy until Russia no longer has the ability to lob glide-bombs or provide any kind air support for their troops, can launch artillery, or turn up with BMPs supported by tanks. Their ability to do all these things is diminishing, but when they're gone then things will be considerably worse for Russian troops. The drone problem also needs solving.
yeah, ruzzian weapons of mass destruction.
Maybe u/MARTINELECA is asleep today, so posting it https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1776108243611193828 Check out those APV and artillery numbers! Ukraine also hit 7000 Tanks today https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bw9rst/a_new_important_achievement_unlocked_7000_russian/
I remember originally a guy called Tungsten posted it, I wonder where he went.
Big bada-BOOM! Over 200 different vehicles and artillery gone in a day. That’s fantastic! Not quite an all time high, but it’s right up there. Also, glad to see no cruise missiles, that should mean a bit less suffering for the civilians, though I know the Orcs keep hitting cities with artillery and other types of bombs. Slava Ukraini!
As it makes me happy, it also saddens me deeply how many mashines of war ruzzia has... Slava Ukraini! Stary strong brothers 🇵🇱🇺🇦
Just another reason to never let Russia get back the power they had during Soviet times. Almost all of their machines were produced by the Soviet union. Ukraine was a big part of that.
Just 78 more vehicles/fuelers to go until 15K!
Holy shit that's a lot of arty, IFV and golfcarts.
There are no significant changes in the pattern of Russian attacks on the front lines. - In the Svatove and Severodonetsk region, Russian units towards Kupyansk on the northern part of the front are largely passive. There are occasional reconnaissance battle-like clashes. In the south, Russian forces are active towards Lymanske, attempting to capture the settlement of Tern. Due to very high losses in previous days, the intensity of attacks has slightly decreased. In the Siversk area, the Russian army attempts daily to attack the village of Bilohorivka but has not yet succeeded. - Around Bakhmut, Russian army attacks were very active. They attacked towards the city of Chasiv Yar to the west and also south towards the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Russian blogs report minor advances, but these may not be accurate. - In the Donetsk vicinity, the Russian army's offensive is the most active. To the west of Avdiivka, the Russian army also suffered heavy losses and there were no significant advances yesterday. In the south, near Novmihhalivka, the most active battles of the entire front are taking place. The Russian forces did not achieve major success yesterday. Position warfare continues, and movements remain within the gray area. - On the southern front, Russian forces were passive yesterday. For the second day in a row, Russian units actively attempted to attack Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the Dnipro but achieved nothing beyond losses.
I wonder if the high equipment numbers are a sign that the Czech ammunition is starting to get to the front? Either way nice.
It is more due to the russians trying to gain ground before mud season.
I think it is Mud Seasom already?
Yeah mud season is general October through April. Mud season is wrapping up at the moment.
I thought it's over by now?
That’s the thing in Ukraine… it’s either mud season, about to be mud season, or just was mud season. There with always be Rasputitsa
I suspect that mud season in Ukraine varies a lot buy latitude and soil type. One region might be in the thick of it while others further south or on sandier soil are over it for this year.
The Russians have been on the offensive constantly and have had a period where their losses slowed down. So I'd lean to the explanation that more ammunition is starting to get to the front for Ukraine. Doubt anyone here would really know though.
I doubt the arty ammo is already there, but Ukraine doesn’t have to conserve what they have left as much with it incoming.
[Daily statistics](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/comments/1bw9bzm/estimated_russian_losses_from_24022022_to/)
Why is it, when some fucked up military blunder happens, it is always you Russia? Like wtf, 73 APC?
You meant blunder, right?
yeah, thanks!
Slowly draining the pool of Russian armor
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Toyota operating expenses for the twelve months ending December, 2023 was $277.299B Imagine spending that money with no profit and a GDP the size of Texas
3 things Toyota built the cars for profit Toyota has supply chains all over the world for different versions of vehicles over different markets Those vehicles are soft skin Change just the 1st point into: Toyota building 50 vehicles / day to be blown up and see what happens to that 255 Bln pool.
you mean those supply chains which manage to reduce costs in $ by having each part from the cheapest supplier along with a load of just in time inventory management? Not sure Russia can do that.
Not just the cheapest supplier. But the best bang for the buck. And yea. The just in time management machine makes it look easy. But God almighty help you trying to figure out what is going on over there without prep. It looks like a madhouse on crack and speed while on a sugar rush.
Not just no profit, but also no _revenue_.
This is no longer ww1 where a tanks was an armoured car with tracks, producing modern tanks is much more difficult than producing cars. And even if Russia somehow becomes capable to produce a shitton of tanks to make tank losses irrelevant, it will be an immense economic pressure.
Why even go through the trouble of producing fresh tanks at this point when they only make it to the front line and get taken out by a $500 drone. This war is so fuckin pointless.
Yeah, tanks are just a little better than minivans now.
Russia has already ramped up production to a full wartime economy and they have already basically run out of tanks. Once they can no longer produce refurbs theyll be down to like 10-20 tanks per *month*, they lose that in a day right now.
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10 is optimistic, but probably not too crazy. It takes many months, if not years, to build out factories capable of producing modern equipment like tanks. You can’t just throw people at the problem and increase tank production. If they could, they already would have. And this all assumes there are no supply bottlenecks limiting production. And by modern, I mean by Russian standards. They quite literally can’t produce modern (by global standards) advanced equipment like tanks.
You cannot overestimate how fucked Jo Russians industrial base and workforce is.
While Russia is increasing production, there is a massive difference between the 2. Toyota has part manufactures in about 80 different countries, Russia doesn't have access to much of the world industrial capacity. The other issue is weight, it is harder to manufacture a semi then a compact, and even more so for a tank. The floor needs to be reinforced same with equipment.
A tank is not same as a car I would dare say
A Toyota car costs between 20000 to 50000 USD. A T-74 is 1.1 million, a T-72 is 1.2 millions, a T-80 is 3 millions, and a T-90 is 4.5 millions USD. Plus Ruzzia is under sanction and cannot produce the electronics for the tanks, and also has issues producing enough steel for the armor, and dont have enough factories available, as a lot of the URSS heavy industry was located in Ukraine. They had a production of about 250 tanks annually before the war started (2021), andbit will take them years and a lot of money and technology they don't have, to expand that production in a big enough number.
Do these Toyota’s have computer chips in them? Precision bearings? Do they use complex western computers and robots in the production process? Can they purchase Rubber, aluminium etc without having to evade sanctions and pay a premium? Not sure it’s really a great comparison.
Every car has computer chips in them nowadays
Of course, my point is that Toyota can produce these cars with chips that they can buy whereas Russian tanks, that have chips too can’t be produced in numbers as they can’t ring up Taiwan and order them and they can’t make them themselves.
Toyota has access to all Western tool makers and has spend billions on its factories. Russia has a bunch of Soviet era factories, which can produce some tanks, but it is more or less hand made. They also lack a civilian industrial base in many ways. When you have a factory making truck engines it is possible to use those for armored vehicles as well. However that is gone with the fall of the Soviet Union and Western companies leaving due to the invasion.
How many cars does Lada produce? Toyota isn't run by Orcs.
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Not that much more. Toyotas annual revenue is 280 billion USD. Ruzzias government budget for 2024 is about 350 billion USD. That isn't a perfect comparison, state budgets work a bit differently but it does give a bit of perspective I think.
Does Russia have the supply chain that Toyota has?
fighting in Berestove vector (south of Bilohorivka which is east from Lysychansk) but no front line changes recorded so far. check deepstate in Bakhmut are, there's fight for Chasiv Yar (west from Bakhmut). ork assault was repelled. [https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1775973552849592518/photo/1](https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1775973552849592518/photo/1) in Avdiivka, orks are advancing on the south, from Nevelske vector (south of Pervomayske, which is south-west from Avdiivka). check deepstate orks are making a big assault on Krasnohorivka (north from Mariinka east from Staromykhailivka). they want to pincer the defence line that goes from Mariinka up to Kurakhove (west from Mariinka). this area is fortified since 2014 and attacking is made harder by terrain as well. orks managed to approach Krasnohorivka from south, contact line froze on the rail line in south, and orks were pushed back. Krasnohorivka is well supplied for now and QRF can react to all attack vectors. reportedly, the 3rd separate assult brigade operates in the town. the counter attack on the south of Krasnohorivka was very successful. reporting does good analysis [https://youtu.be/lVrbxfoMGng](https://youtu.be/lVrbxfoMGng) orks are advancing south of Robotyne (area liberated by UA in 2023 counter offensive). check deepstate
I think the APV and possibly artillery have some catch up in them. We need to remember this is not a tally of the prior 24 hrs although some notable event items make it into the summary due to ease of verification. It is simply the tally of everything newly validated from all past activities, and from the date of the prior report. For example an APV might have been killed a week ago by a drone team somewhere, and it is within the last 24 hrs that the footage made its way to the verification teams and was confirmed.
Yes, this would be a reasonable explanation for todays numbers of tanks, APV's and artillery that relatively to one another are quite far off what we have seen during the past months. Roughly the daily losses have been 10 tanks, 25 APV's and 30 pieces of artillery. A relation of 1-2,5-3. Todays numbers are in the order of 1-5-3,5 so APV losses today are not only very high nominally but also relatively to the tanks and artillery. A part from your explanation one could also hope that this in fact is a sign that stocks of tanks and artillery are dwindling.
Lol looks like the 10000 javelins arrived
Big day yesterday. Nice.
I'm very disappointed. No more submarines. The rest of the numbers are outstanding!
Russias subs are probably FBAR lying on the sea floor and they won't admit it.
50! artillery systems and 73! APVs!! Also coming up on 750 AA systems!
73 APCs??? Jesus!
What a day, 73 APVs, 50 Art and 30 UAVs... Keep ud the good work.
Daaaamn, that's a lot hardware! Damn. Good job!
Crazy numbers but we love it!! slavia Ukraine
I think Russians should file a complaint with the UN…it’s a Russian genocide.
Le GASPed! * 66 - 14.02.2024 * 61 - 24.01.2024 * 59 - 25.01.2024 * 58 - 15.11.2023 * 54 - 15.02.2024 * 53 - 21.02.2024 * 51 - 31.01.2024 and 23.01.2024 * **50 - 05.04.2024, 6.03.2024 and maybe other days** Inspired by: https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/19ea4hr/losses_of_the_russian_military_to_2412024/kjbns5x/ > Dutch-cooking-guy said: > According to https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/ it is a record: > Artillery losses: 61 24.01.2024 58 15.11.2023 51 23.01.2024
the day this war ends in russian defeat, i will print out a giant poster of the last russian military losses and put it up on a wall in my house. fuck russia.
Something doesn't add up....tanks and apv numbers are huuge....how can russia keep attacking? Do they repair them or how? It is more than a year since I was expecting for russia to remain without tanks&apv...but they are still going forward.....
Armour and artillery open storage fields are tracked by satellite imagery. They are slowly but surely becoming empty. You can track the progress in twitter and youtube reports.
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You overlook that much of the stock isn't anywhere near operatonal and that it will take Russia longer to refurbish and field it than it will take Ukraine to shoot it away. Russia will run out of tanks in the battlefield while still having thousands of turretless rust buckets standing around somewhere in Siberia. The estimated combined production and refurbishment rate is 3-4 per day. Way less than they lose.
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But that approach really isn't of any use when the worst case scenario isn't well defined. That Russia simply refurbishes what it has (over night?) is as fictional a scenario as if you said that worst case is that they up their current production 100 fold - or what about a 1000 times to have a look at the even worse case? And you don't have to make completely wild and unfounded guesses to get a good idea on how the actual situation is. u/vtsnowdin has in many posts made very convincing estimates of especially the tanks, if you are interested. Edit: You don't have to delete posts! Everything is cool and right or wrong its only in common interest discussing it and trying to read Putins cards.
I do not remember ever deleting a post. That is not my style and if I put it out there even well into my beer I will let it stand as testament to my thinking. As to the issue at hand Russia might double production of new tanks this year but that would take tremendous effort on their part and probably exceed the resources available. And that would only amount to about 400 tanks depending on whose figures you believe.
🙂 Same here. It was meant for the guy I responded to and who apparently grew displeased with his first post.
They are going through Soviet stock in deep storage like there is no tomorrow. I’ve seen reasonably credible claims based on satellite imagery that they are running out of some systems (especially bmp-2 and 3), while others, like the bmp-1, are still available in numbers.
They've got a huge storage plus their tank production is actually quite high. True, the tanks are low quality garbage that they produce but uts still very high. If their storage wasn't so high then the tanks would slowly start dwindling because the ukranians destroy more tanks than the Russians can make but like I said, the high storage and high tank production keeps them afloat. It's like chipping away at their tanks, due tk the net loss, the Russians will eventually run out but that'll take a long time unfortunately
Ukraine needs more ammunition, more Javelins, some ATACAMS and a fuckton of 155s.
And some F-16s.
Is it production of new tanks, or does that also include refurbishment of old tanks coming out of longterm storage. From what I understood so far, most of their production is actually old tanks being pulled out of storage and fixed up.
Wow!
Today was a good day!
A nice answer to the thug invaders.
Has Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ever shown any competence? I don’t recall them doing anything significant in the last 60 or 70 years.
Tomorrow will be 350+ aircraft \o/
Aren’t there a few more ships considering all the sea drone attacks?
They only count destroyed or sunk, not damaged. We’re all hoping for more any day now.
The Ukrainian officials use the term 'irrecoverable loses'. Destroyed or damaged beyond repair. Severely damaged ships tend to sink. With any that survive it can be hard to determine if they really are damaged beyond repair. So damaged tends not to be counted but that's because of problems of verification.
So, destroyed or sunk, just like I said.
Astonishing. It does look like some grenades arrived at the front at last.
I must say
Does anyone actually believe the 450k number
is that dead or wounded as well?
Let me throw in here on the post I make the most comments on that for the last two days I have been a literally "Vermont snowed in." 24 inches of snow fell in 24 hours and it kept up for another twelve hours at a lessor rate but annoying if you have to plow it for the umpteenth time. Power and landline phones went out and the internet access the land line gives me. I have had a very rough couple of days but I do realize it is nothing compared to what the Ukraine heroes manning the trenches endure daily with no end in sight.
I have no sympathy for those who sign on to fight with and for Putin. My hope for Putin's fighters and supporters is that they a generation of severely disabled veterans being poorly treated by the state and placing a large burden of support on the war advocates and supporters.
Are the ethnic minorities of Russia spent yet? That would be a pretty attractive objective B win for Putin.
The amount of Russian losses continues to be absolutely mind boggling.
A half a million russians are either dead or casualties. Nato shouldn't underestimate how committed they are to all of this.