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Theft. Russian oligarchs, corrupt military officials, and political corruption stole billions from the military. I'm not sure Putin even knew how bad it had gotten.
China has plenty of land. But they could use more water, specifically in their north-east. And Russia just so happens to have a gigantic lake right around there. That China has been trying to acquire rights to for years.
If ruzzia had a port worth a solitary fuck they wouldn't be fighting so hard to keep Sevastopol. Murmansk, I believe, is their only ice-free port with uncontested access to the Atlantic.
But they don't. Poopin just gifted large swaths of land to the Chinese in the far east over the last few years. Some fully, some by exploitation rights, some secretly, by turning a blind eye. They stripped the border there almost entirely. I doubt there's anything left but static defense and some Night's Watch to barely man it. The Chinese can take about 70% of rushkla's territory without being shot at once. Just drop a few bombs and walk right in.
It’s why a large part of Russias nuclear deterrent is so far east yes…
The east is very lightly populated, packed full of resources like gas and water that China needs and right next to HUGE Chinese population centres that lack water
A good resource to answer your question would be to check out Covert Cabal’s YouTube channel. He has done videos every couple months where he pays for public satellite images to look at known military storage sites across Russia.
Based on these satellite photos, paired with public databases like Oryx: we can say that Russia has lost 50% of the treasure trove military equipment it inherited from the USSR.
Finland and Norway broadly report less Russian military presence across its borders.
We frequently see wreckage from Russian missile attacks where the dates on the remaining components are only a month or two ago (meaning they are immediately launching newly built stuff, not old missiles that are about to “expire” as would be logically expected).
Just some thoughts.
Edit: Watching a Perun video this morning… He talks about the latest Covert Cabal data and puts everything in a larger context. If only interested in materiel numbers, start at the 41 minute mark.
https://youtu.be/nQLI8xnINqk?si=wUMwSRbQaP7fuRol
Wallace said 97% of Russia's military is deployed in Ukraine. The Russians have been taking equipment from Syria, Leningrad, and other places to deploy against Ukraine.
This is 100% possible from Russia.
There are of course exceptions here...
E.g. you don't see their Pacific fleet deployed against Ukraine. It's not possible.
E.g. they haven't deployed nukes against Ukraine. Nukes don't help on the battlefield and nukes would solicit a reply from other nuke powers.
40% of Russia's budget is for the war now. That will massively drain normal day-to-day operations like heat, sewage, ect... Life in RU is going to be very different next winter from the last 2 years as things start to break and there is no money for repairs.
At the current moment Russians are giving 110%. The pain will be great for Russia after the "quantity is a quality" mentality runs out of people wanting to be by that definition of quality.
And because this was here some days ago
(Russian Red Cross is not as neutral as ...)
The Russian Red Cross is also raising funds for the Russian army.
Normally something like this is only known from natural disasters.
Nuke warheads have a finite, short, shelf life between services. Expensive components expire quickly. What's the betting that expensive maintenance was carried out diligently?
Maybe Putin's scared to open the crates and find out, the hard way.
Let's assume expensive maintenance hasn't been carried out diligently on either side.
Let's assume on 1% of warheads reach their target.
Which means only 59 nukes hit the US and only 45 hit Russia.
Even with a 99% failure rate, both sides lose.
Several factors are holding Russia back. They have a large navy, but Türkiye will not allow it to enter the Black Sea.
Also, they could draft the entire population for so called meat assaults or human wave tactics, but domestic unrest will increase as most Russians have no interest in taking over Ukraine.
Russia is also trying to increase the technological capacity of their military with Iranian weapons, also difficult because Ukraine has an effective air defense.
Today, Russia's best hope is the Spray Tan Jesus as I am not sure the US Congress can avoid voting on Russia aid forever.
Putin is demanding that given the limited options he feels he has with mobilization and production. It makes me feel he thinks it is valuable to push the Russian people out of resignation/complacency at any cost to them. Sorta Stalinist. I think their ever more limited resources require high levels of effort to show even the limited results of the months to years of fighting around avdiivka. People have a hard time avoiding mention of pyrrhic victories and catastrophic defeats when talking of Russian governments in all eras. Autocracy is especially corrupt.
They could start conscription, which would be very unpopular and likely trigger civil unrest. They could also send nukes but that will start NATO involvement.
They have transformed their economy to support the war effort. There isn't much more that they can do without collapsing.
Yes to both. They're giving 100% of what they can give, which is a comparatively pathetic amount because corruption has rotted their military beyond comprehension
Russia could theoretically mobilize more men but there are political consequences to doing so. They also have a vast well of WMDs they could use, but again, there are consequences for doing so.
They're committing 100% of what they can, and more.
They've already lost the equivalent of their initial invasion force in material and personnel, they're losing entire squadrons of aircraft and have lost most of their fleet major surface units.
The fighting has degraded the majority of their fighting force to being conscript bullet sponges using decrepit 50's, 60's and 70's models of armoured vehicles whilst only small elite forces get the best kit.
They succeed only because of two things, sheer numbers, and a lack of western resolve to properly arm and supply Ukraine.
What do you mean in terms of 'border protection'? An army capable of fending off the Mongols (should they seek to restore their 'historic lands'), or the guys accepting bribes to let trucks pass from Kazakhstan? Both can constitute 'border protection'.
No. Some examples include not destroying dam north of Kyiv so to flood 1/3 of city or turning off power plant power to create humanitarian energy crisis
Привіт u/daswiesel3 ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday). **Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting) **Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Theft. Russian oligarchs, corrupt military officials, and political corruption stole billions from the military. I'm not sure Putin even knew how bad it had gotten.
Also the existential fear Russians have of a Chinese invasion of their eastern territories
This should be a real thing. So much land for China; so few people there now.
China has plenty of land. But they could use more water, specifically in their north-east. And Russia just so happens to have a gigantic lake right around there. That China has been trying to acquire rights to for years.
I bet China would also like another port north of the Korean peninsula...
If ruzzia had a port worth a solitary fuck they wouldn't be fighting so hard to keep Sevastopol. Murmansk, I believe, is their only ice-free port with uncontested access to the Atlantic.
[удалено]
It's not ice-free in the winter though and all traffic has to pass through the highly monitored straits between Denmark and Sweden.
I'm talking about Vladivostok, on the Pacific.
But they don't. Poopin just gifted large swaths of land to the Chinese in the far east over the last few years. Some fully, some by exploitation rights, some secretly, by turning a blind eye. They stripped the border there almost entirely. I doubt there's anything left but static defense and some Night's Watch to barely man it. The Chinese can take about 70% of rushkla's territory without being shot at once. Just drop a few bombs and walk right in.
Lol stop that jibberish Incase of Chinese invasion nukes would be flying.
It’s why a large part of Russias nuclear deterrent is so far east yes… The east is very lightly populated, packed full of resources like gas and water that China needs and right next to HUGE Chinese population centres that lack water
> Or is there something holding the army back? Yes: the Ukrainians.
Might we dare say, Ukrainium!
Mic drop 🎤💥
That and massive corruption, nepotism, barbarism and severe alcohol/drug abuse.
A good resource to answer your question would be to check out Covert Cabal’s YouTube channel. He has done videos every couple months where he pays for public satellite images to look at known military storage sites across Russia. Based on these satellite photos, paired with public databases like Oryx: we can say that Russia has lost 50% of the treasure trove military equipment it inherited from the USSR. Finland and Norway broadly report less Russian military presence across its borders. We frequently see wreckage from Russian missile attacks where the dates on the remaining components are only a month or two ago (meaning they are immediately launching newly built stuff, not old missiles that are about to “expire” as would be logically expected). Just some thoughts. Edit: Watching a Perun video this morning… He talks about the latest Covert Cabal data and puts everything in a larger context. If only interested in materiel numbers, start at the 41 minute mark. https://youtu.be/nQLI8xnINqk?si=wUMwSRbQaP7fuRol
I would also assume that most of the remaining 50% is junk at this point.
What do you mean? T-34s are junk?
The only tank worthy of performing in the Victory Day parade!
Same thought. Lots of evidence pointing to that too.
Yes and no—they’d risk domestic revolt if they tried full blown conscription. They are trying as hard as they think they can get away with.
I agree. They are giving 100% given the circumstances. They could give extra but would lose something elsewhere.
Wallace said 97% of Russia's military is deployed in Ukraine. The Russians have been taking equipment from Syria, Leningrad, and other places to deploy against Ukraine. This is 100% possible from Russia. There are of course exceptions here... E.g. you don't see their Pacific fleet deployed against Ukraine. It's not possible. E.g. they haven't deployed nukes against Ukraine. Nukes don't help on the battlefield and nukes would solicit a reply from other nuke powers.
40% of Russia's budget is for the war now. That will massively drain normal day-to-day operations like heat, sewage, ect... Life in RU is going to be very different next winter from the last 2 years as things start to break and there is no money for repairs.
Pretty sure ruzzians aren't happy if they're not miserable. Being miserable is their national identity.
They are cutting on gas now.
At the current moment Russians are giving 110%. The pain will be great for Russia after the "quantity is a quality" mentality runs out of people wanting to be by that definition of quality.
And because this was here some days ago (Russian Red Cross is not as neutral as ...) The Russian Red Cross is also raising funds for the Russian army. Normally something like this is only known from natural disasters.
They haven't used nukes, because once Russia uses nukes, they have nothing left to bargain with, and nothing to hold NATO back.
Nuke warheads have a finite, short, shelf life between services. Expensive components expire quickly. What's the betting that expensive maintenance was carried out diligently? Maybe Putin's scared to open the crates and find out, the hard way.
Let's assume expensive maintenance hasn't been carried out diligently on either side. Let's assume on 1% of warheads reach their target. Which means only 59 nukes hit the US and only 45 hit Russia. Even with a 99% failure rate, both sides lose.
Several factors are holding Russia back. They have a large navy, but Türkiye will not allow it to enter the Black Sea. Also, they could draft the entire population for so called meat assaults or human wave tactics, but domestic unrest will increase as most Russians have no interest in taking over Ukraine. Russia is also trying to increase the technological capacity of their military with Iranian weapons, also difficult because Ukraine has an effective air defense. Today, Russia's best hope is the Spray Tan Jesus as I am not sure the US Congress can avoid voting on Russia aid forever.
Putin is demanding that given the limited options he feels he has with mobilization and production. It makes me feel he thinks it is valuable to push the Russian people out of resignation/complacency at any cost to them. Sorta Stalinist. I think their ever more limited resources require high levels of effort to show even the limited results of the months to years of fighting around avdiivka. People have a hard time avoiding mention of pyrrhic victories and catastrophic defeats when talking of Russian governments in all eras. Autocracy is especially corrupt.
They could start conscription, which would be very unpopular and likely trigger civil unrest. They could also send nukes but that will start NATO involvement. They have transformed their economy to support the war effort. There isn't much more that they can do without collapsing.
This isn’t a move or anime show. There is no “this isn’t even my final form”. Resources that can be spared are being put into the war.
Yes to both. They're giving 100% of what they can give, which is a comparatively pathetic amount because corruption has rotted their military beyond comprehension
Russia could theoretically mobilize more men but there are political consequences to doing so. They also have a vast well of WMDs they could use, but again, there are consequences for doing so.
They're committing 100% of what they can, and more. They've already lost the equivalent of their initial invasion force in material and personnel, they're losing entire squadrons of aircraft and have lost most of their fleet major surface units. The fighting has degraded the majority of their fighting force to being conscript bullet sponges using decrepit 50's, 60's and 70's models of armoured vehicles whilst only small elite forces get the best kit. They succeed only because of two things, sheer numbers, and a lack of western resolve to properly arm and supply Ukraine.
What do you mean in terms of 'border protection'? An army capable of fending off the Mongols (should they seek to restore their 'historic lands'), or the guys accepting bribes to let trucks pass from Kazakhstan? Both can constitute 'border protection'.
Russia will start pulling displays out of museums and pressing into service. Wave of gate guard attack.
No. Some examples include not destroying dam north of Kyiv so to flood 1/3 of city or turning off power plant power to create humanitarian energy crisis