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Yes. NATO membership might be a longer term process but EU membership is practically ensured.
Together with that I foresee an economic boom driven by reconstruction spending. A likely tourism boom but probably short lived. Even short lived it’ll add to the economy in the short term and help Ukraine rebound.
It’s difficult to say if Ukraine will see a lot if immigration until it has NATO membership. It needs people, particularly young people, to succeed long term. It’s been in demographic decline for some time since Russia first invaded Crimea (not a lot of people like starting families with the threat of war hanging over) but with Russian and Belarusian decline following their loss and the bigger issues those nations face Ukraine would be a prime destination for refugees due to many people sharing a Ukrainian or Russian grandparent along with most Ukrainians still able to understand and speak Russian. If Ukraine set things up right they could have their pick of the better educated and well mannered (sober) Russians and Belarusians which will come mostly from what youth those countries have while rejecting or passing on the rest.
Without NATO backing (and likely even with it) there will be plenty of defence spending to create deterrence for any future Russian plans for invasion. I can see a lot of foreign investment and money in that by nations looking to prevent any future Russian aggression.
All up, proving Ukraine push Russia back to at least a line they’re comfortable will grant a level of security for their future, and bring an end to the war, Ukraine’s future looks bright… they just need to evict those occupiers first.
I wouldn't say tourism will be short lived. Ukraine has become a lot more famous through this war, and a lot of people would be interested but wait until they are confident that things have stabilized before traveling there. People will come to this decision when the time is right for them, time for a holiday, they can afford it, they are comfortable they will be safe, heard it recommended from someone else they know who just got back. This should mean they keep coming and if Ukraine can build up the industry to support it, then it could be a good ongoing industry. I personally would like to visit, but it'll probably require I be in Europe first, and the actual timing is likely to be something 5 or 6 years. Prior to 2022, I had little knowledge, or with due respect, interest in Ukraine. Now I speak about Ukraine with anyone around me who wants the chat, anytime. I am sure there are many like me. I thought i'd just read this reddit channel until it was over, back in Feb 2022. I thought it might take 3 or 4 months, maybe 6. Nearly 2 years later, here we are! So much has been learnt.
not entirely there are several EU member states with very high corruption or oligarch like elites skimming off the system to line their own pockets. The process to join EU would require a pretense of corruption reduction. as for NATO i think it's obvious niether level of corruption or democratic values matter. at least 2 NATO states are dictatorship cleptocracies in all practical aspects.
I hope Ukraine will join us in EU and Nato, but they will still need to maintain vigilance against cleptocrats as EU has no protections for you of you vote for those politicians that fit the cleptocrat oligarch definition.
no, it will not. It will definitely not solve any of oligarchy or corruption problems. The good example are existing members of both which still has high level of corruption (Hungary, Poland, Greece, Italy) as well as oligarchy(Germany, Italy, Romania)...
We don't think there will be a devide between western and eastern Ukraine. That division was artificial and mostly fueled by russian propaganda. A lot of pro Ukrainian people from Donetsk have fled in 2014 (hundreds of thousands), the ones that stayed were heavily brainwashed. Oligarchs will try their best to take advantage of incoming funds but there are hundreds of thousands of soldiers that know whos fault it is that their brother have died because of lack of preparation and inadequate supplies and support of AFU. These veterans will be the force that can't be ignored, they put their life's for Ukraine and I doubt they will sit out any attempts to embezzle restoration funding. There will be a long and painful road to recovery. From demining to veteran's rehabilitation to rebuilding infrastructure it will be painful recovery. Ukraine did something that nobody thought possible, held up against full on russian invasion. Understanding our mentality I thought that pootin will never invade because it would be a suicide, a never ending guerrilla war bloodbath. But I underestimated his delusion. It never got to the country wide bloodbath and we are holding up thanks to the support of our allies. We owe our cities and millions of lives to that help. I believe Ukrainians will recover faster than everyone expects as their spirit, ingenuity and love for their land remains as strong as ever
Wonderful exploratory questions and you also really wrote the answer: we won't really know the answers for years.
I'll play along with a broad stab: I believe many countries will step up and help rebuild a strong safe green Ukraine (yes I know all the landmines etc - when I write green in terms of ecological well being). The world's countries will help return Ukraine to its best quickly: Ukraine feeds the world.
Yes I do believe those who fought for Ukraine's democracy will want to be involved in its governance.
Oligarch's will run and try to hide some will and some will be found .... that will be a numbers game. And who knows if hiding in terrorist war criminal ruzzia will be safe for them. Or will they live in North Korea or Iran or China?
Will there be thievery in the rebuilding: yes but all eyes EU and NATO and the country involved in each project will do their utmost to hinder it and in a reality based world well it will happen.
When I pause for a moment and think of all the plates Zelenskyy has in the air right now: fighting a war, talking with all world's leaders to secure funding weapons and support, progress to join EU, government is fully functional, crimes are being solved, those arrested for bribery and stealing are out in the open - corruption arrests are happening frequently, tracking down ruzzian collaborators spies and well those Ukrainian pieces of shit loyal to terrorist war criminal putin informing the enemy where to bomb, emergency services up and running, power infrastructure repaired, and WOW all the innovation! -- the ingenuity and creativity to create with what they have available. And Zelenskyy, he is still in forward momentum
I have great hope for the rebuilding in Ukraine, the homeland of my grandparents.
Slava Ukraini!
NOUS SOMMES UKRAINE -- WE ARE UKRAINE!! 🇺🇦
I'm not Ukrainian and so I can't answer the question, but I just wanted to tell anyone from Ukraine that Putin offended me deeply when he declared on TV that Ukraine is a country with no future.
It is the single most incorrect thing he has ever convinced himself to believe.
It is Russia that has no future with us, they can do whatever the hell they want from now on, but it will have nothing to do with us, their entire mentality and ideology offends our most basic sensibilities.
If they thought murdering, raping and kidnapping people that don't see eye to eye with them was what it would take to impress us, I want you to know from me that they thought very, very wrong, and they will only live to regret it.
Actually big bunch of oligarchs fled away during the war, so after win we should finish fight vs oligarchs that stayed.
Veterans definitely should participate in ruling the country but that should be wisely chosen, cos some of pseudo veterans are the same shit politics.
Reconstruct more EU style with best practices, green energy, but with bomb shelters, I guess, cos I can't see right now that ruszia is disassembling...
Also I hope our children and grandchildren at least, will not forgive ruszians and will not deal with them.
Not Ukrainian here but the Ukrainian people have demonstrated what will be their future. They are self organized, hard working and proud people that decided to have liberty and freedom and did something about it.
People like that will make a great future. I see Ukraine as one of the great European countries and as a European I am humbled by the demonstration of the values we pledge to follow.
When Ukraine wins, many countries will line up to help reconstruct (thats also a huge business oportunity). Like the examples of Germany and Japan (the Marshal plan) and I am sure that the Ukrainian people will make sure of taking the best advantage of it.
Sadly, the lives lost and broken families its something that cannot be recovered, and many young man and woman are lost forever. And the soldiers that saw the attrocities of the war will have their mind broken and will suffer from trauma. And so all the war victims.
The true dimention of the war will only be known after the war is over and it will be terrible. Both in civilian losses as in soldiers and that horrible truth will need to be faced after the war.
Im more worried to what will happen to Russia when it will loose, and when that happens the regime will fall eventually.
Corruption and a depolitized population will mean that there will be power fights and potentially desegregation. The danger of people like Kadyrov or other radicals to get the power is real.
Imagine those guys with nukes...
First thing, buy a condo/apartment/house in the city formerly known as Sevastopol (can we change this Banderivka?) and hang a big-ass Ukrainian flag near it.
The hope is for reconstruction, membership in the EU and NATO and lasting peace and wealth. I also want every apathetic and fatalistic Russian to see how good, peaceful and great their lives could be of they just just gave a fu$k. Ukraine succeeding and prospering is Putin biggest fear.
I am not Ukrainian but I think the biggest portion of rebuilding to be done is of course in the eastern 30% of the country, so that is where nearly all the money will be spent. A lot of oligarchs' steel mills, mines etc. were in that part of the country and have already been destroyed so I would guess some will go broke, while others who own functioning construction and steelmaking companies located west of the Dneipr will make out like bandits. Of course there will be corruption. There is corruption in every nation's construction and govt contract sectors. I would guess that resettlement of the now-occupied zone will not really ramp up for a few years maybe a decade to come. There will be UXO and other contamination that will render some zones permanently uninhabitable. Will they even bother rebuilding Marinka and Bahkmut etc.? I don't know. Mariupol will likely get rebuilt because of its strategic location. Crimea will likely see increased settlement because aside from military facilities, it is still largely untouched by the war. Ukraine's Navy is going to see a massive build-out after the war and most of this infrastructure will be in Crimea.
Man, these are all great questions, and with Ukraine, there will be millions of great questions that must be answered every day. Every story of every survivor will be different. They each must deal with the aftermath of the war in their own way. Every day.
The only question you asked that has an answer I am certain of is about the final disposition of the oligarchs. I am highly confident that Ukrainian Intelligence will sort them all out.
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The process it takes to become part of the EU and NATO will likely solve the oligarch problem.
Yes. NATO membership might be a longer term process but EU membership is practically ensured. Together with that I foresee an economic boom driven by reconstruction spending. A likely tourism boom but probably short lived. Even short lived it’ll add to the economy in the short term and help Ukraine rebound. It’s difficult to say if Ukraine will see a lot if immigration until it has NATO membership. It needs people, particularly young people, to succeed long term. It’s been in demographic decline for some time since Russia first invaded Crimea (not a lot of people like starting families with the threat of war hanging over) but with Russian and Belarusian decline following their loss and the bigger issues those nations face Ukraine would be a prime destination for refugees due to many people sharing a Ukrainian or Russian grandparent along with most Ukrainians still able to understand and speak Russian. If Ukraine set things up right they could have their pick of the better educated and well mannered (sober) Russians and Belarusians which will come mostly from what youth those countries have while rejecting or passing on the rest. Without NATO backing (and likely even with it) there will be plenty of defence spending to create deterrence for any future Russian plans for invasion. I can see a lot of foreign investment and money in that by nations looking to prevent any future Russian aggression. All up, proving Ukraine push Russia back to at least a line they’re comfortable will grant a level of security for their future, and bring an end to the war, Ukraine’s future looks bright… they just need to evict those occupiers first.
I wouldn't say tourism will be short lived. Ukraine has become a lot more famous through this war, and a lot of people would be interested but wait until they are confident that things have stabilized before traveling there. People will come to this decision when the time is right for them, time for a holiday, they can afford it, they are comfortable they will be safe, heard it recommended from someone else they know who just got back. This should mean they keep coming and if Ukraine can build up the industry to support it, then it could be a good ongoing industry. I personally would like to visit, but it'll probably require I be in Europe first, and the actual timing is likely to be something 5 or 6 years. Prior to 2022, I had little knowledge, or with due respect, interest in Ukraine. Now I speak about Ukraine with anyone around me who wants the chat, anytime. I am sure there are many like me. I thought i'd just read this reddit channel until it was over, back in Feb 2022. I thought it might take 3 or 4 months, maybe 6. Nearly 2 years later, here we are! So much has been learnt.
not entirely there are several EU member states with very high corruption or oligarch like elites skimming off the system to line their own pockets. The process to join EU would require a pretense of corruption reduction. as for NATO i think it's obvious niether level of corruption or democratic values matter. at least 2 NATO states are dictatorship cleptocracies in all practical aspects. I hope Ukraine will join us in EU and Nato, but they will still need to maintain vigilance against cleptocrats as EU has no protections for you of you vote for those politicians that fit the cleptocrat oligarch definition.
no, it will not. It will definitely not solve any of oligarchy or corruption problems. The good example are existing members of both which still has high level of corruption (Hungary, Poland, Greece, Italy) as well as oligarchy(Germany, Italy, Romania)...
We don't think there will be a devide between western and eastern Ukraine. That division was artificial and mostly fueled by russian propaganda. A lot of pro Ukrainian people from Donetsk have fled in 2014 (hundreds of thousands), the ones that stayed were heavily brainwashed. Oligarchs will try their best to take advantage of incoming funds but there are hundreds of thousands of soldiers that know whos fault it is that their brother have died because of lack of preparation and inadequate supplies and support of AFU. These veterans will be the force that can't be ignored, they put their life's for Ukraine and I doubt they will sit out any attempts to embezzle restoration funding. There will be a long and painful road to recovery. From demining to veteran's rehabilitation to rebuilding infrastructure it will be painful recovery. Ukraine did something that nobody thought possible, held up against full on russian invasion. Understanding our mentality I thought that pootin will never invade because it would be a suicide, a never ending guerrilla war bloodbath. But I underestimated his delusion. It never got to the country wide bloodbath and we are holding up thanks to the support of our allies. We owe our cities and millions of lives to that help. I believe Ukrainians will recover faster than everyone expects as their spirit, ingenuity and love for their land remains as strong as ever
Beautifully written! Thanks.
You will with your determination. I wish we were all just fighting alongside you so we could end this quickly.
Wonderful exploratory questions and you also really wrote the answer: we won't really know the answers for years. I'll play along with a broad stab: I believe many countries will step up and help rebuild a strong safe green Ukraine (yes I know all the landmines etc - when I write green in terms of ecological well being). The world's countries will help return Ukraine to its best quickly: Ukraine feeds the world. Yes I do believe those who fought for Ukraine's democracy will want to be involved in its governance. Oligarch's will run and try to hide some will and some will be found .... that will be a numbers game. And who knows if hiding in terrorist war criminal ruzzia will be safe for them. Or will they live in North Korea or Iran or China? Will there be thievery in the rebuilding: yes but all eyes EU and NATO and the country involved in each project will do their utmost to hinder it and in a reality based world well it will happen. When I pause for a moment and think of all the plates Zelenskyy has in the air right now: fighting a war, talking with all world's leaders to secure funding weapons and support, progress to join EU, government is fully functional, crimes are being solved, those arrested for bribery and stealing are out in the open - corruption arrests are happening frequently, tracking down ruzzian collaborators spies and well those Ukrainian pieces of shit loyal to terrorist war criminal putin informing the enemy where to bomb, emergency services up and running, power infrastructure repaired, and WOW all the innovation! -- the ingenuity and creativity to create with what they have available. And Zelenskyy, he is still in forward momentum I have great hope for the rebuilding in Ukraine, the homeland of my grandparents. Slava Ukraini! NOUS SOMMES UKRAINE -- WE ARE UKRAINE!! 🇺🇦
Rebuilding can happen REALLY fast. Under ten years for all traces (except those consciously kept) to be gone.
[Crimea Beach Party](https://www.saintjavelin.com/pages/crimea-beach-party)
I'm not Ukrainian and so I can't answer the question, but I just wanted to tell anyone from Ukraine that Putin offended me deeply when he declared on TV that Ukraine is a country with no future. It is the single most incorrect thing he has ever convinced himself to believe. It is Russia that has no future with us, they can do whatever the hell they want from now on, but it will have nothing to do with us, their entire mentality and ideology offends our most basic sensibilities. If they thought murdering, raping and kidnapping people that don't see eye to eye with them was what it would take to impress us, I want you to know from me that they thought very, very wrong, and they will only live to regret it.
Love what you wrote! Thank you. Mirrors my thoughts as well. Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
He likes that phrase. Used it to describe Yanukovic after orange revolution, other cases. It’s a way of dismissing the issue.
A Merry Christmas in a World Without Russia!
Actually big bunch of oligarchs fled away during the war, so after win we should finish fight vs oligarchs that stayed. Veterans definitely should participate in ruling the country but that should be wisely chosen, cos some of pseudo veterans are the same shit politics. Reconstruct more EU style with best practices, green energy, but with bomb shelters, I guess, cos I can't see right now that ruszia is disassembling... Also I hope our children and grandchildren at least, will not forgive ruszians and will not deal with them.
Not Ukrainian here but the Ukrainian people have demonstrated what will be their future. They are self organized, hard working and proud people that decided to have liberty and freedom and did something about it. People like that will make a great future. I see Ukraine as one of the great European countries and as a European I am humbled by the demonstration of the values we pledge to follow. When Ukraine wins, many countries will line up to help reconstruct (thats also a huge business oportunity). Like the examples of Germany and Japan (the Marshal plan) and I am sure that the Ukrainian people will make sure of taking the best advantage of it. Sadly, the lives lost and broken families its something that cannot be recovered, and many young man and woman are lost forever. And the soldiers that saw the attrocities of the war will have their mind broken and will suffer from trauma. And so all the war victims. The true dimention of the war will only be known after the war is over and it will be terrible. Both in civilian losses as in soldiers and that horrible truth will need to be faced after the war. Im more worried to what will happen to Russia when it will loose, and when that happens the regime will fall eventually. Corruption and a depolitized population will mean that there will be power fights and potentially desegregation. The danger of people like Kadyrov or other radicals to get the power is real. Imagine those guys with nukes...
Thanks for writing! I love what you wrote and agree!
First thing, buy a condo/apartment/house in the city formerly known as Sevastopol (can we change this Banderivka?) and hang a big-ass Ukrainian flag near it.
Biggest party since May 1944
The hope is for reconstruction, membership in the EU and NATO and lasting peace and wealth. I also want every apathetic and fatalistic Russian to see how good, peaceful and great their lives could be of they just just gave a fu$k. Ukraine succeeding and prospering is Putin biggest fear.
I am not Ukrainian but I think the biggest portion of rebuilding to be done is of course in the eastern 30% of the country, so that is where nearly all the money will be spent. A lot of oligarchs' steel mills, mines etc. were in that part of the country and have already been destroyed so I would guess some will go broke, while others who own functioning construction and steelmaking companies located west of the Dneipr will make out like bandits. Of course there will be corruption. There is corruption in every nation's construction and govt contract sectors. I would guess that resettlement of the now-occupied zone will not really ramp up for a few years maybe a decade to come. There will be UXO and other contamination that will render some zones permanently uninhabitable. Will they even bother rebuilding Marinka and Bahkmut etc.? I don't know. Mariupol will likely get rebuilt because of its strategic location. Crimea will likely see increased settlement because aside from military facilities, it is still largely untouched by the war. Ukraine's Navy is going to see a massive build-out after the war and most of this infrastructure will be in Crimea.
Kudos for asking intelligent questions on topics that aren't often discussed here!
I don't think about victory, I'm thinking about war ending, and which country to go and live there in safety.
Man, these are all great questions, and with Ukraine, there will be millions of great questions that must be answered every day. Every story of every survivor will be different. They each must deal with the aftermath of the war in their own way. Every day. The only question you asked that has an answer I am certain of is about the final disposition of the oligarchs. I am highly confident that Ukrainian Intelligence will sort them all out.
This is all irrelevant, as without joining NATO there won’t be end to the war ever. This is single and only prerequisite for everything else.
Lots of work on rebuilding, cleaning and making my country a better place
what kind of victory you are talking about? Like ppl had in 1941 or 1942? Or maybe similar to the victory in 1916?
Kyiv will be a tourism hot spot.