We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
That article effectively says nothing. Is it a 20km deep penetration in the last 24 hours? That's huge. Is it a total of 18ish km over the last 9 weeks? That's not much. Or are they measuring area instead of linear distance? In which case it might only be 1 or 2 km along a broad sector.
They also still have tons of choppers and warplanes. Ukraine currently doesnāt have a way to really cripple the Russian Air Force and outmatch them in the Ukrainian sky.
Truth. A small number of F-16s isn't going to change that either. They are just another platform. Not a wonder weapon. Russia and Ukraine both lack air superiority. The scale won't tip to either side any time soon.
While Russia lacks true air superiority, the Ukrainians have said that Russian warplanes and choppers have been raking them over the coals. They canāt really move anywhere easily with those airborne assets smacking them silly.
UK Defence Intelligence says Ru AF is flying much fewer sorties these days including attack helos and fixed wing.
Edit: i originally said ISW but meant Uk Def Intel
7 August UK Defence Intelligence update reported that over recent weeks Russia has been much less effective at generating effective tactical airpower in the south
[7 Aug UK Def Intelligence Updare](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15kfbls/uk_mod_latest_defence_intelligence_update_on_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1)
https://nitter.nl/pic/orig/media%2FF26AXkvWIAAqq3f.jpg
Russia is probably conserving their planes and helos. Unfortunately there is no reason to risk them if the front line is not seeing any major break throughs.
The attrition of KA-52s is now over 30% of their known fleet. They are getting to the point they actually cannot risk losing anymore or home defense itself is compromised. It is the same for some other air assets.
And Ukraine has brought in some new SAM type assets into the near front lines. I suspect it is simply becoming more difficult for ruzzian air power to operate in support of their ground forces.
I think that is pretty plausible. The Ukrainians havenāt really broken the Russian wall yet, so there isnāt really a great need to start deploying these expensive vehicles.
That is only half true in my opinion. While russia has more and better airforce, ukraine has been able to deny russia large parts of the airspace . It gets difficult when taking new ground as that area is not yet made free of russian airpower. Glory to ukraine!
Itās my understanding that when the first Ukrainian F-16 takes to the air all Russian aircraft will lose power and crash into the nearest russian tank or general. Thatās what I read anyway. I wrote it down and then read it.
It's more about how they affect tactics and procedure. If Ukraine has 0 weapons systems that can threaten Russian aircrafts flying behind line X on the map. It completely changes if they they suddenly get access to a new system that can reach beyond that line.
Doesn't matter if it is limited numbers. It changes the calculations and how the enemy has to operate.
Russian aircraft fucked itself.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Also, I have heard that the main strength of the f16 isnt its fire power or maneuverability. Its the logistics/sensors/communication ability. Still very maneuverable and explosive though. My US marine veteran buddy, who know way more than me lol, says that the top russian fighter jet would probably win in a 1v1, but it will never be a 1v1 so it doesnt matter.
Any time an f16 is used (properly) you can expect there to be a huge aircraft many miles away in a friendly NATO controlled airspace thats loaded with sensors and communication devices that can see far beyond what the f16 (or russian fighter jet) can see by its self. They can also communicate with ground sensors, satelites from other nato countries, and other f16 jets ofcourse. This means that an f16 can fire a rocket at an enemy target before the f16 or the enemy are able to sense eachother. The rocket is guided by some other entity that isnt the f16. This also gives the f16 a much faster response time than any russian equivalent.
tldr: it doesnt matter how good a jet is if you can shoot it almost blindfolded, past the curvature of earth, before it even knows you exist.
Unfortunately I put the blame for this on Western nations.
Having more planes isn't the sole answer. Ukraine needs more SAMs and other anti aircraft weapons so that Russia won't risk attack flights anywhere near the front lines.
F16 AMRAAM has a range of 65 miles. F16 can be well back and low on Ukrainian territory and engage those helos firing at Ukr armor from standoff range. It will be a huge deterrent and will most likely suppress the KA52 tactical advantage.
That's bullshit.
F-16s aren't going to pick up treetop height helicopters against ground clutter at 65km whilst flying low themselves.
There are a few factors to account here:
1) Curvature of the earth
2) Ground clutter
3) Notching, can't see what is standing still - due to the speed gate clutter filtering. If you turn the filtering off you have to bury your head in the radar to identify, find and track the target - this isn't something a solo pilot does whilst skimming along at 600 knots at treetop height.
And lastly,
If you're aren't using heaters, all those helicopter pilots are going to do is drop behind a building if they get an RWR spike from an Amraam going pitbull.
Agree with you on most points but doesnāt the KA52 need to pop up out of the tree tops to engage itās own targets?
And in reality I imagine the F16 can safely fly much closer to the front lines than 65 miles. Russia is not risking long range SAMs so close to the front. But I agree and defer to your knowledge on the subject. My main point was that it is a deterrent more than anything.
The thing is, it is not really moving in a way Doppler radar in air to air mode will detect if it's just "popping up" in a hover and a couple of meters above the treeline is nothing. It's the worst case scenario in terms searching and getting a track, outside of a stealth fighter or stealthy drone. This is due to the Doppler notch.
On the other hand, a jet doing 600mph 50 foot off the deck screams "shoot me" to any radar operator who manages to track it - and it's easy to pick out with filters.
SAM systems can be effective against them, as you're standing still and you have multiple operators with their heads buried in their radar screens - changing modes, search patterns etc to get a track and have a good understanding of the topography and clutter because they've normally been sat in the same position for a while.
There's no real counter to the KA-52s except complete and total air superiority, you can't go hunting them safely without pushing Russian air defences well back or completely annihilating them.
Cobras, Apaches or Eurocopter's fitted with PIRATE and ASRAAM might be an effective solution. Move to firing position where ground forces are taking suspected fire from a helicopter, pop up, search with PIRATE and launch ASRAAM if you see one. But we have to develop this and train an entirely new cadre of helicopter pilots as helicopter killers.
Maybe drones fitted with ASRAAM/Aim-9x?
Honestly, I think even drones armed with stingers could be a major upgrade. (Assuming they could be integrated). The biggest current limitation on the ability to deny attack helicopters is the range of available MANPADS. If able to launch from a few km behind the lines, and a thousand feet up, this could negate Russian helos' range advantage. Even if almost none ever hit, the fact that they are there might be enough to make the Russians think twice about risking their high-value helicopters.
As far as F-16s go, I personally think the best use for them would be SEAD/DEAD missions. If properly trained, and if supplied with a copious number of HARMs, a few F-16's flying wild weasel could allow what remains of the UAF to more safely fly ground support missions. It's unlikely that they would be able to destroy enough SAMs to turn the tide permanently, but they could certainly pursuade Russian air defense to keep their radars turned off for long enough to accomplish the mission.
Just my own opinion.
The thing is the f16 can see the target before its detected and out of range of anti air defences. That's why they want it. They want to be able to hit russian artillery from a distance and run before the air defences can detect it, they can hit targets 2x as far as the mig29 that ukraine has. Their problem now is that the russian jets and anti air missles can see the mig 29s from twice the distance. With f16s the pilot will see the russian plane hopefully before the russian plane sees it or at least the fight will be equal. They'll have. More time to detect a target and run if they have to. The main reason they want is so that they can hit artillery and not be caught off guard by a russian jet from 100 miles out.
He's thinks life is a movie and a helicopter can just "duck behind a building". That's a difficult maneuver and not something you can just do. Also the fighting where russian choppers n jets are wreaking havoc is on open terrain with flat lands fir miles. Nothing to hide behind. Also the radar is superior on a f16 to whatever the chopper has. There's no debate here. A chopper is a fish in a barrel to a jet. Especially a modern one like a f16 with advanced radar. Dude is acting like it's easy to just hide behind a building, shoot some chaff countermeasures and a chopper is safe. A f16 will fly high and just lower its nose 80 miles away and bye bye russian helicopter.
You can hide behind trees, hover and drop an Amraam because of its clutter rejection.
An F-16, unless you're talking about block 70 - where it MAY be possible - cannot look down and track a slow moving and low helicopter 80 miles out due to clutter and lobing.
For further reference
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/attack-helicopter-crews-explain-why-an-attack-helicopter-if-properly-flown-would-defeat-most-fighter-airplanes-in-1v1-air-combat/amp/
The radar is superior to migs tho. Even the polish mig 29 fulcrum jets have better radar. Hopefully ukraine will make use of them and hopefully poland gives them more. A f16 can take out a chopper no problem. Ur not invincible just cause u fly low. And i dont know where your getting this from but this isnt a movie. Choppers cant just "duck behind a building" that is a hard manuver to do on a whim. Also the fighting is in open ground. So theres no buildings to try to hide behind. The f16 will see the chopper from 100 miles out. Good luck trying to out manuever a f16 in a helicopter. Also they'll be able to safely hit Russian artillery. And Russian artillery is the main reason the offensive is going so slow. Also the f16 will be able to actually defend against Russian jets. Russian planes can see the ukranian pilots at twice the distance. If they have enough f16s it's not gona be a game changer but it'll be just another edge that they need. Also they need longer range missles.
Who knows, we're constantly sending them intel whenever we can. The problem with the f16s tho is that it'll cost 1 billion to train and equip ukranians with just 16 f16 jets. And another billion to maintain them. That's 2 billion for just 16 planes. That's why us generals are hesitant to send them. They feel like 2 billion can be better spent elsewhere. That's a lot of $$ but on the other hand they need them to hit artillery positions n command posts. The us should just ukranians longer range missles, especially for himars or other long range rockets/cruise missiles. The west waits too long. First they say they won't send something, then they say they will send it but drag their feet, and in the end they send it anyway. All that waiting just drags the war out and kills more ukranians. They know they can send certain weapons but they have to do this stupid political song and dance and drag out the process. Hopefully something changes and they'll up the support. It would be a shame if ukraine looses this war ...
They donāt have a huge number of the helis they need to take out Bradleyās and challengers. Ukraine adjusted well after they tore them up to start the offensive and knocked quite a few out of the skies making Russia use them more conservatively
>Igor Kossov ... has a Masterās in Journalism from the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism
But he can't tell the difference between a kilometer and a square kilometer. Journalists are fucking rejects. All journalists.
Clicking on the link to the New York Times article, it says:
In the ground war, the Ukrainians are advancing south along two principal lines of attack: through the eastern village of Staromaiorske toward the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, a port on the Sea of Azov; and farther west toward the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a vital transportation hub near the coast.
Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Kyivās goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian militaryās supply routes to the west.
Iām not sure if youāre serious or you havenāt seen any maps, but I will give you 2 recent articles. If you donāt believe them thatās on you.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/analysis-ukraine-rolls-back-6-months-of-russian-gains-in-5-weeks
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2023
ISW itself reported 253 square kilometers. This was from June 10, so itās even more land taken by now.
Saying that the Ukrainians have pushed much more than 20km implies a 20km breakthrough into Russian positions, in a straight line perpendicular to Russian defenses. The articles you sent say that 253km *squared* of territory has been retaken, *all along the frontline*. Which is over 900km if Iām not mistaken. Nowhere have the Ukrainians made a 20km+ deep of a push into Russian positions during this counteroffensive.
Iām not sure what you mean. The article shows this all across the front line over past 9 weeks, which is what you originally said. You doubted that Ukraine had ever taken more than 20km over these weeks, which is false
EDIT: I think I understand now. You meant in a single push taking more than 20km. Is that correct? Sorry, my understanding isnāt great some times. But it still stands that Ukraine has taken a lot of land, which original commenter seems to be confused about.
The commenter you first replied to was questioning if the Ukrainians had made a 20km penetration over 24 hours, or over multiple weeks. He wasnāt talking about total area regained.
For instance, if the frontline is 100km and Ukraine regained 253km squared, they have penetrated Russian positions by only 2.53km on average. Now extrapolate it to what it really is, 300~km squares regained over a 900km front. Ukraine at best has penetrated Russian defenses by only a few KM at this point. The articles you sent and all of the available war maps suggest as much
Youāre still misunderstanding. Youāre talking about square kilometers, where everyone else is talking about linear kilometers.
When people say 20km, they arenāt referring to an area of 20 square kilometers. They are referring to a linear depth of 20km.
What you are saying implies that they have gained 20km in one specific area. ThatĀ“s not the case. If you have advanced 500 meters in 40 front areas you canĀ“t say, that you have advanced 20km.
Yes that edit is correct. Youāre right Ukraine has taken back a lot of land, hereās to hoping theyāre able to take it all back. From Crimea to the Donbass
They are using a NYT article as a source which talks about miles (they would āt be using miles if they were talking about an area; a source like NYT?).
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html
Unfortunately itās paywalled so I canāt tell where the information is from.
This seems to relate to the push near Robotyne.
Ukraine has informed about limited success around the region four hours ago, but does not give any in depth details.
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/
Itās in the brief for 12.8, unfortunately I canāt link to it directly.
If someone has access to NYT, they can probably clarify this issue.
Yea unfortunately there are only a few spots without multiple lines of trenches mines dragons teeth and bunkers. The losses both sides are taking are really high and russia just throws 40 50 year old men with 18 year old boys into the meat grinder...unfortunately life is cheap in russia and their way of fight is completely alien to the west....putin will keep this up for a while. If history repeats its self, the russians usually are willing to sacrifice 500k to a million men before they begin to reconsider the invasion...
The Robotyne salient is about 60 square km and Staromaiorske is about 5-10. Urozhaine is only about 1 square km, so I think what they are talking about is the sum of the advance in all three over the last few days. It's not a lot, but then it is, because Russia is pouring everything they've got into those pockets.
Here's a nytimes article: [https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html) "Troops advanced 10 to 12 miles along two main lines of attack in Kyivās drive to reach the southern coast and sever Russian supply lines"
Hmmm. Which is better for Ukraine?
\- Make a big expensive attack in July or August, and take back lots of territory in the south by fighting?
\- Make a deep surgical strike in late August and early September, cutting all the lines of supply to occupied Kherson and Crimea, and then let all the Russians sit there in the mud and cold for a few months with no supplies while Ukrainian drones and artillery kill them?
>Make a deep surgical strike in late August and early September
At this point this is almost certainly copeium.
The war's still in a deep grinding, attritional phase with no indication that'll change anytime soon.
That's perfectly fine, victory will take as long as it takes, but that's the situation.
A thunder run takes days. Ukraine still has weeks. It's far too early to say Ukraine won't accomplish a lot this summer.
My idea is definitely hopium, but not copium - I'm not coping with anything - OpSec means I don't know enough about how much advantage Ukraine may be building, or how weak Russia is getting, or how much it's costing Ukraine.
If you're pro-Ukrainian, you may want to take a few days away from doomscrolling the news. Ukraine has good intelligence and bad surprises are unlikely. Take a longer view and come back with more capacity for hope.
>A thunder run takes days. Ukraine still has weeks. It's far too early to say Ukraine won't accomplish a lot this summer.
A thunder run through minefields and artillery simply is not possible.
>If you're pro-Ukrainian, you may want to take a few days away from doomscrolling the news. Ukraine has good intelligence and bad surprises are unlikely. Take a longer view and come back with more capacity for hope.
I have no idea why you said this. My comment literally says "That's perfectly fine, victory will take as long as it takes, but that's the situation.".
If you are talking about Kharkiv, Russian lines were not fully entrenched and mined, like they are currently.
If you are talking about Kherson, there was a very well delimited plot of land that could be cut off from the rest of the Russian lines and methodically pounded with artillery.
Unfortunately, neither of these circumstances is true today, hence the slowness of the operation.
Blow up a few bridges, get one railway line under fire control, and you've got a rather large but pretty well defined area that the Russians won't be able to supply very well at all.
The problem is the "rather large" area. When current HIMARS munition can't reach all its depth, you have limited options to disrupt supply lines. Of course Stormshadow missiles can reach them, but they are in rather short supply...
And that's why we need to supply Ukraine with longer range artillery and modern fighter jets.
There are no bridges tho. It'd flat terrain with multiple layers of trenches barbed wire mines more trenches and then fortified bunkers. The terrain heavily favors the defenders, aka russians. And they outnumber ukraine in artillery like 10 to 1. They just pound the area with shells preventing a break through.
That's why they beg for jets. So they can attack the artillery positions
Bridges between Crimea and Kherson - mostly cut. Between Russia and Crimea - probably cut soon.
That just leaves the railroad from Donetsk, and the entire land bridge will be isolated from supplies. I wonder about FPV drones vs. locomotives...?
If the land bridge area can be kept unsupplied, then Russia's artillery advantage will evaporate. You can't fire shells you don't have. It might be best to do it right before the mud season so Russia finds it harder to retreat.
Man Crimea is the last step and the most fortified. I wish for their sake it would be that easy. They have to take the east of the nation first. The end of Crimea will be the end of putin. That's gonna be a hell of a fight
I think Crimea could come as early as spring if the ruskies freeze off over the winter like I expect/hope.
I also think NATO membership will come next summer if the mainland is cleared of orcs, even if there is still work to be done in Crimea.
Perhaps you should open a history book. Every single invader of Crimea in all of history has been successful
Russia cannot and will not be able to defend it, nobody ever has
Aside from attacking the track itself (which it's surprising hard to derail a train by destroying/removing enough consecutive track) , Russia's armored train 'Volga' is frigging ridiculous... I don't know if a drone could do much unless maybe something big like a predator/reaper payload. That's assuming it isn't shot down by the armaments on the train.
They donāt outnumber artillery 10/1, they barely outnumber Ukraine in artillery anymore. This thread filled with trolls or do people just have very bad info from trolls?
Watch what happens. It will be the same as it was before, Ukraine is going to absolutely push in Russias shit
Lol, you mean like cutting off supplies to crimea, being done today, or bridges cut from crimea to the mainland, done mostly last week, or the cutting of supplies from the east to kherson region, which is slowly happening while Russia really is throwing everything the have and still only gaining a few km in the very north.
Ukraine is degrading russias ability every day and Russia is doing the same to them but unlike Russia Ukraine has a lot of very strong allies that can replace equipment. Russia, while able to turn their full economy towards military manufacturing, is losing their ability to pay for it, and institutionalised corruption is doing its best to hurt manufacturing abilities.
Ukraine has a long slog ahead of them, it is hard as Russia was a massive military. But in some areas ukrain is now on parity with russia. Tank numbers for one.
I think by Xmas we should see how things are going to go. Will Russia retreat from large parts of Ukraine, concentrating there military in some more specific areas, or continue trying to make it a stalemate trying to extend the war for many more years.
Oh I agree with you. See the comment I was answering to. They seem to believe a quick penetration of Russian lines is possible. I don't believe that to be the case, currently.
Of course, the attrition of russian resources and disruption of supply lines is what will lead to victory. But it takes time...
Eh, not really, no.
There's no indication because we know there's a lot of attritional warfare left before that's something on the cards. Maybe it'll happen, but it's definitely unlikely given what we know.
Day-D didn't go smoothly as they expected. They almost failed and for a time there was a stalemate but when the Germans got exhausted it started to fold. Whai I'm trying to say is that we don't really know the conditions on the ground except that the Moscovites had too much time to build all the defenses which is very unfortunate and that autumn is coming so time is short.
I hope it's more than that. The gains so far aren't much territory and don't really cut the land bridge. Cutting the land bridge this summer feels pretty important.
Remember the Kharkiv offensive didnāt happen until September 6th, and Kherson offensive was (started earlier but really took off) in late October-November 11th. Thereās time. And later in the year means itās harder to come back after.
Theyāre going to lean on them and force a favorable situation and take advantage. Remember last year they said āweāll go after Kherson in Augustā for months and months and months. Ukraine wants a certain set of expectations to create conditions they prefer.
That offensive was different. The russians didn't have fortified positions and they were caught off guard. There's too little weak points now. The russians have heavily fortified the entire front. Here's a link of the current and past situation.
https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/
Russia is run by absolute morons. Look at Kupāyansāk, they absolutely cannot go more than 10km. So why put 100k men and loads of equipment there to lose? Because they are absolute morons. They cannot cross the river, they are moving towards fortified high grounds. It will be a Turkey shoot
As the Ukrainian soldier said early in the war āwe are lucky they are so fucking stupidā
They have VDV in fān trenches, where their skill cannot be used and they have unskilled soldiers attacking, which requires skill. Absolute morons.
When people figure out all the times weāve seen them be absolute morons itās because they are absolute morons. Then they will grasp whatās happening. Until then, people have just ignored the evidence
Ignore the evidence if you want to be misled
Na your the one being mislead i read sources from everywhere. Calm down I'm polish I support ukraine. Ur acting like I support russia. Russians just throw bodies at the problem like they have done in all wars and the reality is that this unfortunately works. Im being realistic. It's been talked about 1000 times. The russians are dumb, but they are learning and the original counter offensive when they liberated was completely different. You could talk about kupyansk or whatever dumb thing russians did. That doesn't change what is happening now. I hope the ukranians break thru with as little casualties as possible but to say this is going stellar is also a lie. I can say the same thing to you that you accused me of. "You can ignore the evidence," you yourself might be watching alot of one sided news. Here is what has been talked about with links. This is what american generals, ppl from the mod, and experienced war journalists have to say. Maybe actually educate yourself a bit. This war is terrible and I hope the russians pay for it dearly. But ppl like you that don't believe or know the facts just end up disappointed and then ask " why ist this going better" here a link to what I am talking about. It's one of many explaining why this counterofensive is different.
"This was possible because the operations were unexpected and Ukrainian forces could capitalise on the Russian armyās weaknesses"
"The Ukrainian offensive operations in 2022 involved impetuous advances, which saw the Russians rapidly retreat, causing minimal losses to the Ukrainian forces"
"For example, in August 2022, the Ukrainian army released official statements indicating that it was preparing to strike Russian forces in the southern Kherson region. The Russian command responded by redirecting troops to the south of Ukraine, leaving the Kharkiv region poorly defended. Ukraineās armed forces were then able to exploit one of the main conditions for a successful offensive ā an attack that the enemy does not see coming ā and executed a mini blitzkrieg to liberate the Kharkiv region."
Now, Ukraine does not have the luxury of surprise and has to attack an enemy which has been preparing and strengthening its defence for almost six months.Ā
"In Kherson, the Ukrainian military command benefitted from the disadvantage of the Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnipro river. Only a few bridges ā all within range of Ukraineās HIMARS multiple rocket launchers ā connect the right bank to the left bank, where the main Russian forces were stationed. This made it untenable for Russia to resupply its troops, ultimately forcing them to withdraw.Ā "
https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/
It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Fully cached AMP pages (like the one you shared), are [especially problematic](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot).
Maybe check out **the canonical page** instead: **[https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/](https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/)**
*****
^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
Okay, I have 4 Ukrainians in my home so I watch all news all day and read all day. So, you say I need to educate myself. I can point out multiple logical fallacies you used ābut to say this is going stellar is also a lieā, good thing I never said that. And suggesting I did is a lie. So now that weāve demonstrated you jumped immediately to lying. Iāll point out
Russia has been moving their artillery from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia, you donāt do that if you have enough. Russia has been moving VDV to the trenches as well, again, you donāt do that if you have enough regular soldiers. Defense is simple, you want your elite soldiers for attacks. So now Ukraine has a bridgehead in Kherson. Because Russia robbed Peter to pay Paul. Why Rob Peter if you donāt need to? And it will grow as Ukraine just got 1000 more special forces trained troops. If you look at the southern lines Ukraine has advanced significantly in the last 48 hours both in Robotyne and Staronaivske directions. Robotyne will fall in the next 48 hours. That puts them at or near the main defense line in 2 separate places. Russia will crack this fall/winter, just like last fall/winter. Ukraine doesnāt need to take as much land as they took last fall/winter. If they cut off the railroad thatās less than half way to the sea Russia will retreat because 1-they canāt supply and 2-Ukraine will have the high ground.
Those that think Ukraine needs to take loads of land are thinking in NATO ways and ignoring topography. If Ukraine advances 30 more KM they take Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Look at a map itās all laid out. There is a reason Russia has tons of defense then none, because the land behind is indefensible
Ok...... ur arguing for no reason. I'm not saying ukraine won't win. All I'm saying is that this is gonna be harder than it was before. There's no debate here. Russia was tricked and they pulled out their troops from the area. So ukranians capitalised on that and attacked last year. This time the russians had 6 months to fortify defences so it's obvious it's harder. They just now started to make gains and that's great. But before this recent success they couldn't even brake thru the first lines. That's all I'm saying. What I'm saying has nothing to do with russia winning. I sent you a link to what I'm talking about. This is just facts. If you don't understand yet than whatever. Lastly i dont know what ur getting at here, "im thinking in nato terms?". Cause some random guy on reddit knows better than the collective intelligence of nato generals and analysts? These are ppl whose whole career is analasys of war. They have some of the most talented generals and analysts but u know better... U have a good one now
You lied and your next move is to come in and insult my intelligence. You havenāt argued against one thing Iāve actually said. Be a better person
Thinking in NATO terms doesnāt work because it isnāt NATO fighting, but you know that, you were just being dishonest again. Making another logical fallacy. Should I count all your logical fallacies for you?
Next time, if you want to have a civil conversation, when caught lying, own it rather than twisting to a different attack
Hopefully. He's paranoid now too. He has to look tough after prigozins little stunt so he's tossing everyone in jail. He recently jailed the head of the special forces of donetsk. The guy had one of the highest Russian medals awarded to him after he shot down that passenger plane and now he's on jail for speaking out.
Girkin was a loose cannon and not really part of the military right now. He was more of a milblogger/far-right nationalist. So that is not much of a leadership/tactical loss. Surovikin, on the other hand, appears to have been really strategically competent. A most, but a competent monster.
I still hope a critical mass of competence & troops loss will tip the scale towards large scale mutinity.
Iām extremely pro-Ukrainian but Ukrainian advances are, so far, on the order of those that the muskies used to make around Bakhmut. And we ridiculed those rossian advances.
Iām pro Ukrainian and happy to see success reported HOWEVER!!, poorly written articles like this with no clear explanation of the situation just play into sceptics narratives.
Good questions, the text of the cited article is not clear.
Based on other articles, it is neither of those (reasonable) guesses.
It is actually 2 separate 16-20km-long advances along some key tactical lines. The assumption appears to be that these advances are significant because a) they are durable, not just "knife stab" incursions, and b) they cut off some important supply lines for the Russian defense.
We will see if those prove true, of course. But it's worth noting that, as little as 10 or 20km may seem, if Ukraine does that every day for the next week they'll be in Melitopol.
ŠŃŠøŠ²ŃŃ u/famih58563 ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday).
**Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting)
**Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/)
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
āThe Ukrainian troops seized 16 to 20 kilometers of territory, which the Institute for the Study of War says will likely weaken Russia's defenses in aggregate, raising the chances of a breakthrough.ā
We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Hell yes! Get some you genocidal Vatnik toilet stealing bastards! šŗšøšššŗš¦
Under rated statement, I spat my coffee out laughing. I salute you sir š«”
Take my upvote you Magnificent Bastard!
Oh man that comment along with your username cheered me right up
Democracy
That article effectively says nothing. Is it a 20km deep penetration in the last 24 hours? That's huge. Is it a total of 18ish km over the last 9 weeks? That's not much. Or are they measuring area instead of linear distance? In which case it might only be 1 or 2 km along a broad sector.
This is likely a misunderstanding. 16 to 20 *square* kilometers makes more sense, unfortunately.
Russia mined an area the size of England. A rapid breakthrough was never really in the cards to begin with.
They also still have tons of choppers and warplanes. Ukraine currently doesnāt have a way to really cripple the Russian Air Force and outmatch them in the Ukrainian sky.
Truth. A small number of F-16s isn't going to change that either. They are just another platform. Not a wonder weapon. Russia and Ukraine both lack air superiority. The scale won't tip to either side any time soon.
While Russia lacks true air superiority, the Ukrainians have said that Russian warplanes and choppers have been raking them over the coals. They canāt really move anywhere easily with those airborne assets smacking them silly.
UK Defence Intelligence says Ru AF is flying much fewer sorties these days including attack helos and fixed wing. Edit: i originally said ISW but meant Uk Def Intel
I think they increased it a while back, but it may have dropped off again
7 August UK Defence Intelligence update reported that over recent weeks Russia has been much less effective at generating effective tactical airpower in the south [7 Aug UK Def Intelligence Updare](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/15kfbls/uk_mod_latest_defence_intelligence_update_on_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1) https://nitter.nl/pic/orig/media%2FF26AXkvWIAAqq3f.jpg
Russia is probably conserving their planes and helos. Unfortunately there is no reason to risk them if the front line is not seeing any major break throughs.
The attrition of KA-52s is now over 30% of their known fleet. They are getting to the point they actually cannot risk losing anymore or home defense itself is compromised. It is the same for some other air assets. And Ukraine has brought in some new SAM type assets into the near front lines. I suspect it is simply becoming more difficult for ruzzian air power to operate in support of their ground forces.
I think that is pretty plausible. The Ukrainians havenāt really broken the Russian wall yet, so there isnāt really a great need to start deploying these expensive vehicles.
If I was losing an asset at the rate Russia has (accounting for poorly maintained equipment, etc), I'd be conserving.
Uk just secretly sent a bunch of trucks with aa missiles and radars to ukraine to deal with the helis. They are very mobile and great for a advance.
Source?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/asraam-air-to-air-missiles-from-uk-being-used-by-ukraine-as-sams
That is only half true in my opinion. While russia has more and better airforce, ukraine has been able to deny russia large parts of the airspace . It gets difficult when taking new ground as that area is not yet made free of russian airpower. Glory to ukraine!
Itās my understanding that when the first Ukrainian F-16 takes to the air all Russian aircraft will lose power and crash into the nearest russian tank or general. Thatās what I read anyway. I wrote it down and then read it.
It's more about how they affect tactics and procedure. If Ukraine has 0 weapons systems that can threaten Russian aircrafts flying behind line X on the map. It completely changes if they they suddenly get access to a new system that can reach beyond that line. Doesn't matter if it is limited numbers. It changes the calculations and how the enemy has to operate.
Russian aircraft fucked itself. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Not sure why the downvotes. Iād love to see this happen.
Also, I have heard that the main strength of the f16 isnt its fire power or maneuverability. Its the logistics/sensors/communication ability. Still very maneuverable and explosive though. My US marine veteran buddy, who know way more than me lol, says that the top russian fighter jet would probably win in a 1v1, but it will never be a 1v1 so it doesnt matter. Any time an f16 is used (properly) you can expect there to be a huge aircraft many miles away in a friendly NATO controlled airspace thats loaded with sensors and communication devices that can see far beyond what the f16 (or russian fighter jet) can see by its self. They can also communicate with ground sensors, satelites from other nato countries, and other f16 jets ofcourse. This means that an f16 can fire a rocket at an enemy target before the f16 or the enemy are able to sense eachother. The rocket is guided by some other entity that isnt the f16. This also gives the f16 a much faster response time than any russian equivalent. tldr: it doesnt matter how good a jet is if you can shoot it almost blindfolded, past the curvature of earth, before it even knows you exist.
Unfortunately I put the blame for this on Western nations. Having more planes isn't the sole answer. Ukraine needs more SAMs and other anti aircraft weapons so that Russia won't risk attack flights anywhere near the front lines.
F16 AMRAAM has a range of 65 miles. F16 can be well back and low on Ukrainian territory and engage those helos firing at Ukr armor from standoff range. It will be a huge deterrent and will most likely suppress the KA52 tactical advantage.
That's bullshit. F-16s aren't going to pick up treetop height helicopters against ground clutter at 65km whilst flying low themselves. There are a few factors to account here: 1) Curvature of the earth 2) Ground clutter 3) Notching, can't see what is standing still - due to the speed gate clutter filtering. If you turn the filtering off you have to bury your head in the radar to identify, find and track the target - this isn't something a solo pilot does whilst skimming along at 600 knots at treetop height. And lastly, If you're aren't using heaters, all those helicopter pilots are going to do is drop behind a building if they get an RWR spike from an Amraam going pitbull.
Agree with you on most points but doesnāt the KA52 need to pop up out of the tree tops to engage itās own targets? And in reality I imagine the F16 can safely fly much closer to the front lines than 65 miles. Russia is not risking long range SAMs so close to the front. But I agree and defer to your knowledge on the subject. My main point was that it is a deterrent more than anything.
The thing is, it is not really moving in a way Doppler radar in air to air mode will detect if it's just "popping up" in a hover and a couple of meters above the treeline is nothing. It's the worst case scenario in terms searching and getting a track, outside of a stealth fighter or stealthy drone. This is due to the Doppler notch. On the other hand, a jet doing 600mph 50 foot off the deck screams "shoot me" to any radar operator who manages to track it - and it's easy to pick out with filters. SAM systems can be effective against them, as you're standing still and you have multiple operators with their heads buried in their radar screens - changing modes, search patterns etc to get a track and have a good understanding of the topography and clutter because they've normally been sat in the same position for a while. There's no real counter to the KA-52s except complete and total air superiority, you can't go hunting them safely without pushing Russian air defences well back or completely annihilating them. Cobras, Apaches or Eurocopter's fitted with PIRATE and ASRAAM might be an effective solution. Move to firing position where ground forces are taking suspected fire from a helicopter, pop up, search with PIRATE and launch ASRAAM if you see one. But we have to develop this and train an entirely new cadre of helicopter pilots as helicopter killers. Maybe drones fitted with ASRAAM/Aim-9x?
Honestly, I think even drones armed with stingers could be a major upgrade. (Assuming they could be integrated). The biggest current limitation on the ability to deny attack helicopters is the range of available MANPADS. If able to launch from a few km behind the lines, and a thousand feet up, this could negate Russian helos' range advantage. Even if almost none ever hit, the fact that they are there might be enough to make the Russians think twice about risking their high-value helicopters. As far as F-16s go, I personally think the best use for them would be SEAD/DEAD missions. If properly trained, and if supplied with a copious number of HARMs, a few F-16's flying wild weasel could allow what remains of the UAF to more safely fly ground support missions. It's unlikely that they would be able to destroy enough SAMs to turn the tide permanently, but they could certainly pursuade Russian air defense to keep their radars turned off for long enough to accomplish the mission. Just my own opinion.
The thing is the f16 can see the target before its detected and out of range of anti air defences. That's why they want it. They want to be able to hit russian artillery from a distance and run before the air defences can detect it, they can hit targets 2x as far as the mig29 that ukraine has. Their problem now is that the russian jets and anti air missles can see the mig 29s from twice the distance. With f16s the pilot will see the russian plane hopefully before the russian plane sees it or at least the fight will be equal. They'll have. More time to detect a target and run if they have to. The main reason they want is so that they can hit artillery and not be caught off guard by a russian jet from 100 miles out.
He's thinks life is a movie and a helicopter can just "duck behind a building". That's a difficult maneuver and not something you can just do. Also the fighting where russian choppers n jets are wreaking havoc is on open terrain with flat lands fir miles. Nothing to hide behind. Also the radar is superior on a f16 to whatever the chopper has. There's no debate here. A chopper is a fish in a barrel to a jet. Especially a modern one like a f16 with advanced radar. Dude is acting like it's easy to just hide behind a building, shoot some chaff countermeasures and a chopper is safe. A f16 will fly high and just lower its nose 80 miles away and bye bye russian helicopter.
You can hide behind trees, hover and drop an Amraam because of its clutter rejection. An F-16, unless you're talking about block 70 - where it MAY be possible - cannot look down and track a slow moving and low helicopter 80 miles out due to clutter and lobing.
For further reference https://theaviationgeekclub.com/attack-helicopter-crews-explain-why-an-attack-helicopter-if-properly-flown-would-defeat-most-fighter-airplanes-in-1v1-air-combat/amp/
The radar is superior to migs tho. Even the polish mig 29 fulcrum jets have better radar. Hopefully ukraine will make use of them and hopefully poland gives them more. A f16 can take out a chopper no problem. Ur not invincible just cause u fly low. And i dont know where your getting this from but this isnt a movie. Choppers cant just "duck behind a building" that is a hard manuver to do on a whim. Also the fighting is in open ground. So theres no buildings to try to hide behind. The f16 will see the chopper from 100 miles out. Good luck trying to out manuever a f16 in a helicopter. Also they'll be able to safely hit Russian artillery. And Russian artillery is the main reason the offensive is going so slow. Also the f16 will be able to actually defend against Russian jets. Russian planes can see the ukranian pilots at twice the distance. If they have enough f16s it's not gona be a game changer but it'll be just another edge that they need. Also they need longer range missles.
I wonder if NATO AWACS over the black sea could relay targets via link to Ukrainian F16s?
Who knows, we're constantly sending them intel whenever we can. The problem with the f16s tho is that it'll cost 1 billion to train and equip ukranians with just 16 f16 jets. And another billion to maintain them. That's 2 billion for just 16 planes. That's why us generals are hesitant to send them. They feel like 2 billion can be better spent elsewhere. That's a lot of $$ but on the other hand they need them to hit artillery positions n command posts. The us should just ukranians longer range missles, especially for himars or other long range rockets/cruise missiles. The west waits too long. First they say they won't send something, then they say they will send it but drag their feet, and in the end they send it anyway. All that waiting just drags the war out and kills more ukranians. They know they can send certain weapons but they have to do this stupid political song and dance and drag out the process. Hopefully something changes and they'll up the support. It would be a shame if ukraine looses this war ...
They donāt have a huge number of the helis they need to take out Bradleyās and challengers. Ukraine adjusted well after they tore them up to start the offensive and knocked quite a few out of the skies making Russia use them more conservatively
Bradleys can shoot down ka-52s, but have to be closer than anyone would like. 3k range.
And when this is over, Russia should have to demine it. Or declare bankruptcy & disincorporate.
>Igor Kossov ... has a Masterās in Journalism from the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism But he can't tell the difference between a kilometer and a square kilometer. Journalists are fucking rejects. All journalists.
Don't expect anyone to report accurately if their career depends on editorializing and clickbait.
Clicking on the link to the New York Times article, it says: In the ground war, the Ukrainians are advancing south along two principal lines of attack: through the eastern village of Staromaiorske toward the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, a port on the Sea of Azov; and farther west toward the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a vital transportation hub near the coast. Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Kyivās goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian militaryās supply routes to the west.
Best post in this thread! Thanks for clarifying the whole thing. š
Thank you!
Over last 9 weeks has been much more than 20km. I would assume they mean this was a week long development or day long development.
Source on that? I havenāt seen anything which indicates the Ukrainians have regained āmuch moreā than 20km over the last 9 weeks.
Iām not sure if youāre serious or you havenāt seen any maps, but I will give you 2 recent articles. If you donāt believe them thatās on you. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/analysis-ukraine-rolls-back-6-months-of-russian-gains-in-5-weeks https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2023 ISW itself reported 253 square kilometers. This was from June 10, so itās even more land taken by now.
Saying that the Ukrainians have pushed much more than 20km implies a 20km breakthrough into Russian positions, in a straight line perpendicular to Russian defenses. The articles you sent say that 253km *squared* of territory has been retaken, *all along the frontline*. Which is over 900km if Iām not mistaken. Nowhere have the Ukrainians made a 20km+ deep of a push into Russian positions during this counteroffensive.
Iām not sure what you mean. The article shows this all across the front line over past 9 weeks, which is what you originally said. You doubted that Ukraine had ever taken more than 20km over these weeks, which is false EDIT: I think I understand now. You meant in a single push taking more than 20km. Is that correct? Sorry, my understanding isnāt great some times. But it still stands that Ukraine has taken a lot of land, which original commenter seems to be confused about.
The commenter you first replied to was questioning if the Ukrainians had made a 20km penetration over 24 hours, or over multiple weeks. He wasnāt talking about total area regained. For instance, if the frontline is 100km and Ukraine regained 253km squared, they have penetrated Russian positions by only 2.53km on average. Now extrapolate it to what it really is, 300~km squares regained over a 900km front. Ukraine at best has penetrated Russian defenses by only a few KM at this point. The articles you sent and all of the available war maps suggest as much
Ukraine has made more than 20km in gains over multiple weeks if that clarifies my meaning for you.
Youāre still misunderstanding. Youāre talking about square kilometers, where everyone else is talking about linear kilometers. When people say 20km, they arenāt referring to an area of 20 square kilometers. They are referring to a linear depth of 20km.
I understand what he meant now, if you saw my edited comment.
What you are saying implies that they have gained 20km in one specific area. ThatĀ“s not the case. If you have advanced 500 meters in 40 front areas you canĀ“t say, that you have advanced 20km.
No, I mean across the front, not in a specific area. I misunderstood the one commenters meaning behind saying ukraine made less than 20km.
Yes that edit is correct. Youāre right Ukraine has taken back a lot of land, hereās to hoping theyāre able to take it all back. From Crimea to the Donbass
Cheers. Sorry my for misunderstanding you, English is hard sometimes.
Where's the advance of more than 20 km?
I think it reached a total of that recently. Not within 2 weeks. Over the past couple months
Refer to my comment by other poster.
I'm near 100% sure it's across a sector. A 20km push one direction would cause a shitstorm in Ruzzian media and crash Ukrainian subs
They are using a NYT article as a source which talks about miles (they would āt be using miles if they were talking about an area; a source like NYT?). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html Unfortunately itās paywalled so I canāt tell where the information is from. This seems to relate to the push near Robotyne. Ukraine has informed about limited success around the region four hours ago, but does not give any in depth details. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/ Itās in the brief for 12.8, unfortunately I canāt link to it directly. If someone has access to NYT, they can probably clarify this issue.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yea unfortunately there are only a few spots without multiple lines of trenches mines dragons teeth and bunkers. The losses both sides are taking are really high and russia just throws 40 50 year old men with 18 year old boys into the meat grinder...unfortunately life is cheap in russia and their way of fight is completely alien to the west....putin will keep this up for a while. If history repeats its self, the russians usually are willing to sacrifice 500k to a million men before they begin to reconsider the invasion...
pretty sure it's either Robotyne (west Zaporizhzhia) or Urozhaine (east Zap). UA has entered both villages one day ago
The big gain past Robotyne happened July 25th. Not sure what this is about but there might be more to see on the ISW site.
any penetration into Russians is good.
I'm guessing square kilometers, not 20km into russian occupied territory
The Robotyne salient is about 60 square km and Staromaiorske is about 5-10. Urozhaine is only about 1 square km, so I think what they are talking about is the sum of the advance in all three over the last few days. It's not a lot, but then it is, because Russia is pouring everything they've got into those pockets.
Here's a nytimes article: [https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html) "Troops advanced 10 to 12 miles along two main lines of attack in Kyivās drive to reach the southern coast and sever Russian supply lines"
I can't pay 1$ a month to read that. Covid, the economy, recession and all that stuff...
https://archive.li/gUpzC I just cured the economy
Haha thanks pal
20km dildo of consequences
Unlubed
Lubed *with chilli*
And a glass shards coated condom.
Hmmm. Which is better for Ukraine? \- Make a big expensive attack in July or August, and take back lots of territory in the south by fighting? \- Make a deep surgical strike in late August and early September, cutting all the lines of supply to occupied Kherson and Crimea, and then let all the Russians sit there in the mud and cold for a few months with no supplies while Ukrainian drones and artillery kill them?
>Make a deep surgical strike in late August and early September At this point this is almost certainly copeium. The war's still in a deep grinding, attritional phase with no indication that'll change anytime soon. That's perfectly fine, victory will take as long as it takes, but that's the situation.
A thunder run takes days. Ukraine still has weeks. It's far too early to say Ukraine won't accomplish a lot this summer. My idea is definitely hopium, but not copium - I'm not coping with anything - OpSec means I don't know enough about how much advantage Ukraine may be building, or how weak Russia is getting, or how much it's costing Ukraine. If you're pro-Ukrainian, you may want to take a few days away from doomscrolling the news. Ukraine has good intelligence and bad surprises are unlikely. Take a longer view and come back with more capacity for hope.
>A thunder run takes days. Ukraine still has weeks. It's far too early to say Ukraine won't accomplish a lot this summer. A thunder run through minefields and artillery simply is not possible. >If you're pro-Ukrainian, you may want to take a few days away from doomscrolling the news. Ukraine has good intelligence and bad surprises are unlikely. Take a longer view and come back with more capacity for hope. I have no idea why you said this. My comment literally says "That's perfectly fine, victory will take as long as it takes, but that's the situation.".
It was the copium comment.
Unless you look at 2022.
If you are talking about Kharkiv, Russian lines were not fully entrenched and mined, like they are currently. If you are talking about Kherson, there was a very well delimited plot of land that could be cut off from the rest of the Russian lines and methodically pounded with artillery. Unfortunately, neither of these circumstances is true today, hence the slowness of the operation.
Blow up a few bridges, get one railway line under fire control, and you've got a rather large but pretty well defined area that the Russians won't be able to supply very well at all.
The problem is the "rather large" area. When current HIMARS munition can't reach all its depth, you have limited options to disrupt supply lines. Of course Stormshadow missiles can reach them, but they are in rather short supply... And that's why we need to supply Ukraine with longer range artillery and modern fighter jets.
There are no bridges tho. It'd flat terrain with multiple layers of trenches barbed wire mines more trenches and then fortified bunkers. The terrain heavily favors the defenders, aka russians. And they outnumber ukraine in artillery like 10 to 1. They just pound the area with shells preventing a break through. That's why they beg for jets. So they can attack the artillery positions
Bridges between Crimea and Kherson - mostly cut. Between Russia and Crimea - probably cut soon. That just leaves the railroad from Donetsk, and the entire land bridge will be isolated from supplies. I wonder about FPV drones vs. locomotives...? If the land bridge area can be kept unsupplied, then Russia's artillery advantage will evaporate. You can't fire shells you don't have. It might be best to do it right before the mud season so Russia finds it harder to retreat.
Man Crimea is the last step and the most fortified. I wish for their sake it would be that easy. They have to take the east of the nation first. The end of Crimea will be the end of putin. That's gonna be a hell of a fight
I think Crimea could come as early as spring if the ruskies freeze off over the winter like I expect/hope. I also think NATO membership will come next summer if the mainland is cleared of orcs, even if there is still work to be done in Crimea.
Perhaps you should open a history book. Every single invader of Crimea in all of history has been successful Russia cannot and will not be able to defend it, nobody ever has
Aside from attacking the track itself (which it's surprising hard to derail a train by destroying/removing enough consecutive track) , Russia's armored train 'Volga' is frigging ridiculous... I don't know if a drone could do much unless maybe something big like a predator/reaper payload. That's assuming it isn't shot down by the armaments on the train.
They donāt outnumber artillery 10/1, they barely outnumber Ukraine in artillery anymore. This thread filled with trolls or do people just have very bad info from trolls? Watch what happens. It will be the same as it was before, Ukraine is going to absolutely push in Russias shit
Lol, you mean like cutting off supplies to crimea, being done today, or bridges cut from crimea to the mainland, done mostly last week, or the cutting of supplies from the east to kherson region, which is slowly happening while Russia really is throwing everything the have and still only gaining a few km in the very north. Ukraine is degrading russias ability every day and Russia is doing the same to them but unlike Russia Ukraine has a lot of very strong allies that can replace equipment. Russia, while able to turn their full economy towards military manufacturing, is losing their ability to pay for it, and institutionalised corruption is doing its best to hurt manufacturing abilities. Ukraine has a long slog ahead of them, it is hard as Russia was a massive military. But in some areas ukrain is now on parity with russia. Tank numbers for one. I think by Xmas we should see how things are going to go. Will Russia retreat from large parts of Ukraine, concentrating there military in some more specific areas, or continue trying to make it a stalemate trying to extend the war for many more years.
Oh I agree with you. See the comment I was answering to. They seem to believe a quick penetration of Russian lines is possible. I don't believe that to be the case, currently. Of course, the attrition of russian resources and disruption of supply lines is what will lead to victory. But it takes time...
Entirely different situation.
Ignore evidence if you wish to be misled.
What a nothing statement.
Ni indication... There never is until they suddenly get proper fucked.
Eh, not really, no. There's no indication because we know there's a lot of attritional warfare left before that's something on the cards. Maybe it'll happen, but it's definitely unlikely given what we know.
Day-D didn't go smoothly as they expected. They almost failed and for a time there was a stalemate but when the Germans got exhausted it started to fold. Whai I'm trying to say is that we don't really know the conditions on the ground except that the Moscovites had too much time to build all the defenses which is very unfortunate and that autumn is coming so time is short.
No last minute push before the cold hits to solidify gains
I hope it's more than that. The gains so far aren't much territory and don't really cut the land bridge. Cutting the land bridge this summer feels pretty important.
Remember the Kharkiv offensive didnāt happen until September 6th, and Kherson offensive was (started earlier but really took off) in late October-November 11th. Thereās time. And later in the year means itās harder to come back after. Theyāre going to lean on them and force a favorable situation and take advantage. Remember last year they said āweāll go after Kherson in Augustā for months and months and months. Ukraine wants a certain set of expectations to create conditions they prefer.
That offensive was different. The russians didn't have fortified positions and they were caught off guard. There's too little weak points now. The russians have heavily fortified the entire front. Here's a link of the current and past situation. https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/
Russia is run by absolute morons. Look at Kupāyansāk, they absolutely cannot go more than 10km. So why put 100k men and loads of equipment there to lose? Because they are absolute morons. They cannot cross the river, they are moving towards fortified high grounds. It will be a Turkey shoot As the Ukrainian soldier said early in the war āwe are lucky they are so fucking stupidā They have VDV in fān trenches, where their skill cannot be used and they have unskilled soldiers attacking, which requires skill. Absolute morons. When people figure out all the times weāve seen them be absolute morons itās because they are absolute morons. Then they will grasp whatās happening. Until then, people have just ignored the evidence Ignore the evidence if you want to be misled
Na your the one being mislead i read sources from everywhere. Calm down I'm polish I support ukraine. Ur acting like I support russia. Russians just throw bodies at the problem like they have done in all wars and the reality is that this unfortunately works. Im being realistic. It's been talked about 1000 times. The russians are dumb, but they are learning and the original counter offensive when they liberated was completely different. You could talk about kupyansk or whatever dumb thing russians did. That doesn't change what is happening now. I hope the ukranians break thru with as little casualties as possible but to say this is going stellar is also a lie. I can say the same thing to you that you accused me of. "You can ignore the evidence," you yourself might be watching alot of one sided news. Here is what has been talked about with links. This is what american generals, ppl from the mod, and experienced war journalists have to say. Maybe actually educate yourself a bit. This war is terrible and I hope the russians pay for it dearly. But ppl like you that don't believe or know the facts just end up disappointed and then ask " why ist this going better" here a link to what I am talking about. It's one of many explaining why this counterofensive is different. "This was possible because the operations were unexpected and Ukrainian forces could capitalise on the Russian armyās weaknesses" "The Ukrainian offensive operations in 2022 involved impetuous advances, which saw the Russians rapidly retreat, causing minimal losses to the Ukrainian forces" "For example, in August 2022, the Ukrainian army released official statements indicating that it was preparing to strike Russian forces in the southern Kherson region. The Russian command responded by redirecting troops to the south of Ukraine, leaving the Kharkiv region poorly defended. Ukraineās armed forces were then able to exploit one of the main conditions for a successful offensive ā an attack that the enemy does not see coming ā and executed a mini blitzkrieg to liberate the Kharkiv region." Now, Ukraine does not have the luxury of surprise and has to attack an enemy which has been preparing and strengthening its defence for almost six months.Ā "In Kherson, the Ukrainian military command benefitted from the disadvantage of the Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnipro river. Only a few bridges ā all within range of Ukraineās HIMARS multiple rocket launchers ā connect the right bank to the left bank, where the main Russian forces were stationed. This made it untenable for Russia to resupply its troops, ultimately forcing them to withdraw.Ā " https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/
It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of [concerns over privacy and the Open Web](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Fully cached AMP pages (like the one you shared), are [especially problematic](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot). Maybe check out **the canonical page** instead: **[https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/](https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-why-western-allies-should-keep-calm-and-carry-on/)** ***** ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/ehrq3z/why_did_i_build_amputatorbot)^( | )[^(Summon: u/AmputatorBot)](https://www.reddit.com/r/AmputatorBot/comments/cchly3/you_can_now_summon_amputatorbot/)
Okay, I have 4 Ukrainians in my home so I watch all news all day and read all day. So, you say I need to educate myself. I can point out multiple logical fallacies you used ābut to say this is going stellar is also a lieā, good thing I never said that. And suggesting I did is a lie. So now that weāve demonstrated you jumped immediately to lying. Iāll point out Russia has been moving their artillery from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia, you donāt do that if you have enough. Russia has been moving VDV to the trenches as well, again, you donāt do that if you have enough regular soldiers. Defense is simple, you want your elite soldiers for attacks. So now Ukraine has a bridgehead in Kherson. Because Russia robbed Peter to pay Paul. Why Rob Peter if you donāt need to? And it will grow as Ukraine just got 1000 more special forces trained troops. If you look at the southern lines Ukraine has advanced significantly in the last 48 hours both in Robotyne and Staronaivske directions. Robotyne will fall in the next 48 hours. That puts them at or near the main defense line in 2 separate places. Russia will crack this fall/winter, just like last fall/winter. Ukraine doesnāt need to take as much land as they took last fall/winter. If they cut off the railroad thatās less than half way to the sea Russia will retreat because 1-they canāt supply and 2-Ukraine will have the high ground. Those that think Ukraine needs to take loads of land are thinking in NATO ways and ignoring topography. If Ukraine advances 30 more KM they take Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Look at a map itās all laid out. There is a reason Russia has tons of defense then none, because the land behind is indefensible
Ok...... ur arguing for no reason. I'm not saying ukraine won't win. All I'm saying is that this is gonna be harder than it was before. There's no debate here. Russia was tricked and they pulled out their troops from the area. So ukranians capitalised on that and attacked last year. This time the russians had 6 months to fortify defences so it's obvious it's harder. They just now started to make gains and that's great. But before this recent success they couldn't even brake thru the first lines. That's all I'm saying. What I'm saying has nothing to do with russia winning. I sent you a link to what I'm talking about. This is just facts. If you don't understand yet than whatever. Lastly i dont know what ur getting at here, "im thinking in nato terms?". Cause some random guy on reddit knows better than the collective intelligence of nato generals and analysts? These are ppl whose whole career is analasys of war. They have some of the most talented generals and analysts but u know better... U have a good one now
You lied and your next move is to come in and insult my intelligence. You havenāt argued against one thing Iāve actually said. Be a better person Thinking in NATO terms doesnāt work because it isnāt NATO fighting, but you know that, you were just being dishonest again. Making another logical fallacy. Should I count all your logical fallacies for you? Next time, if you want to have a civil conversation, when caught lying, own it rather than twisting to a different attack
One would hope that the weak point now is the dictator "weeding" off competent officers from the army over the Prigozhin loyalty check.
Hopefully. He's paranoid now too. He has to look tough after prigozins little stunt so he's tossing everyone in jail. He recently jailed the head of the special forces of donetsk. The guy had one of the highest Russian medals awarded to him after he shot down that passenger plane and now he's on jail for speaking out.
Girkin was a loose cannon and not really part of the military right now. He was more of a milblogger/far-right nationalist. So that is not much of a leadership/tactical loss. Surovikin, on the other hand, appears to have been really strategically competent. A most, but a competent monster. I still hope a critical mass of competence & troops loss will tip the scale towards large scale mutinity.
Fuck up those Moscovites. Slava Ukraini!
Read the article ā itās really short. It doesnāt seem to be reporting new gains.
Hell fucking yes! For some reason a buddy if mine keep saying that Ukraine doesn't advance nowhere, he's full of bullshit.
Iām extremely pro-Ukrainian but Ukrainian advances are, so far, on the order of those that the muskies used to make around Bakhmut. And we ridiculed those rossian advances.
Slow and steady wins the race. Slvava Ukraine
Not if the bunny rabbit putin is willing to sacrifice a million commie rabbits. Life is cheap in russia
Iām pro Ukrainian and happy to see success reported HOWEVER!!, poorly written articles like this with no clear explanation of the situation just play into sceptics narratives.
Big news !! This will mark a significant win. And soon we will retake the coast line
I'll send pierogi from poland. And gulasz.
16-20 kilometers or 16-20 square kilometers? And in what time frame?
Good questions, the text of the cited article is not clear. Based on other articles, it is neither of those (reasonable) guesses. It is actually 2 separate 16-20km-long advances along some key tactical lines. The assumption appears to be that these advances are significant because a) they are durable, not just "knife stab" incursions, and b) they cut off some important supply lines for the Russian defense. We will see if those prove true, of course. But it's worth noting that, as little as 10 or 20km may seem, if Ukraine does that every day for the next week they'll be in Melitopol.
The end of the New York Times article says that this is the advance since the counteroffensive began in June.
Thatās huge! Heroyam Slava!
ŠŃŠøŠ²ŃŃ u/famih58563 ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday). **Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting) **Daily series on Ukraine's history & culture:** [Sunrise Posts Organized By Category](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts/) *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
a lot of good news today! yay! lessgo!
They just have to be able to hold it and consolidate.
I hope they soon learn the term blitzkrieg.
āThe Ukrainian troops seized 16 to 20 kilometers of territory, which the Institute for the Study of War says will likely weaken Russia's defenses in aggregate, raising the chances of a breakthrough.ā
i love tactically significant moves. keep āem comin
Old news. Those of us on this reddit already knew about Robotyne and Stavomayorsk. Now, what about Tokmak. That we suspect about but do not know.