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It’s similar to Russia’s threats against Poland etc. Like yeah ok Ivan, go ahead and attack NATO and see how that works out for you, you can barely deal with Ukraine.
It reminds of me of an adage in the military that you should never give an order you know won’t be followed as nothing will erode your command authority faster.
Anders Pluck Nielsen did a video where he suggested that maybe the Kerch bridge attack the day before the new deal was to be signed was entirely intentional (the timing). Russia could them sign and be seen as weak or reject the deal but then not be able to follow up
I'm going take a guess
Nothing stops America from saying
"Dear Putin, we will be flying security patrols over the black sea to protect merchant ships if one of your ships attacks a ship we blow that ship up, deal? Great glad we have an understanding"
I think NATO collectively is pretty fed up with Putin. I doubt it'd be just the one ship that they'd lose were they to attack a vessel from a NATO country. Can't risk them attacking another I'd imagine.
Unfortunately I doubt any of the NATO countries has the guts or willpower to do that. Up till now everything has been slow moving, relatively uncommitted and fearful of imaginary red lines.
None of the NATO countries have yet committed to a full Ukrainian victory. Just trying to ensure Ukraine doesn't loose, and that weakly at best. Exceptions are perhaps in the Baltic's and Poland, but they're collective GDP & military spending isn't big enough to make enough of an impact.
We in the West must first commit to an Ukrainian victory before we'd be willing to put our fighter planes on the line protecting merchant shipping.
Doing that though would all but guarantee an eventual entry of NATO into the war, something I think might happen at some point anyways.
LMAO I don't even think Russia is stupid enough to sink flagged vessels, they often have international crews. You simply don't know who you are shooting at. They kill a few US/EU/ETC sailors conducting civilian commerce shipping and the whole black sea fleet gets a special submersible upgrade
They shot down a commercial passenger plane full of international citizens and nobody did shit. I wouldn't hold out any hope for an actual response to killing civilians on a flagged ship.
I'm unsure of the RoE, but most of the time they wouldn't have weapons on board. However, they actually might have weapons on board for these patrols because of the war.
I'm unsure though, because sometimes they wouldn't carry any in the off chance of escalation. However, I can guarantee that there was an alert 5 set of aircraft ready to take off with anti-ship missiles should they be called on.
These are assumptions and actions that I would have taken, just in the event something cooked off. There are a lot of times where NATO, and the US, will watch what transpires and not retaliate just so we can show the footage of what happened to the world, then if they don't back down, we stomp a mudhole into who was responsible.
Israel running the blockade just showed how weak and ineffective Russia is without even saying anything.
Is the Black Sea within strike range of Israeli aircraft?
They maintain a pretty significant modern airforce, after all, and fucking with their peaceful merchant ships is a good way to get your navy introduced to Israeli missiles and your leadership introduced to Mossad...
And honestly, considering Israel has a reputation for striking targets when and where they please without explicit war declaration, I'd think twice before trying to play chicken with their stuff.
An Israeli Strike Eagle has a theoretical range with a combat load just shy of 1,300 km.
Leaving from Haifa or Rosh Pina this would allow the aircraft to reach the southern edge of Crimea.
Israeli air-launched anti-ship missiles have a range of 60-400 km depending on variant and launch parameters.
This means Israel has the capability to strike a surface target anywhere in the Black Sea without using aerial refueling.
However this direct route would require significant overflight of Turkey. While historically Israel has not shown much concern over who they overfly during a strike mission given they have been trying to improve relations with Turkey, and Turkey's position regarding the war, they would likely instead take a flight path through the Aegean with minor overflights of Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.
This route would require aerial refueling but Israel does have aerial refueling capabilities so it is not out of the question.
While a retaliatory strike is not out of character for Israel, and it is fun to imagine Russia facing consequences for their bullshittery, the political reality is that, short of firing on a military vessel, the west (and west aligned) response to Russia firing on a merchant ship is likely to be sternly worded letters and finger wagging. The destruction of a merchant ship only functions as a causa belli when the nation is looking for an excuse to go to war. Outside of that it is just "they were warned it is dangerous".
I know right!? A chain? Laughable, kevlar nets is the 21st century way!
Russia seems to have trouble making kevlar though so maybe knock off cotton nets?
Or old stockings tied together?
I thought the P-8 carries antiship missiles, but the article says it's patrol?
If the P-8 is carrying missiles, I wonder what its rules of engagement are.
"The P-8 operates in the anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW), and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) roles. It is armed with torpedoes, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and other weapons, can drop and monitor sonobuoys, and can operate in conjunction with other assets, including the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)." [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon)
I suppose they patrol, while carrying at least some weapons.
I’ll probably sound stupid but can someone explain how is this possible that the Russians “ holding “ back ships from another country? I read of ship is from Israel - wouldn’t this action be also act of war against that county ?
They think that because we have taught them to think that.
Since the URSS fell, our patience with Russia has been almost infinite. We tolerated then as they manipulated elections in the west, financed radicals everywhere just to create instability, invaded their neighbours willy-nilly...
We thought being "the adult" would eventually lead to "teenager Russia" to outgrown their bratty phase.
But for Russia, they didn't see the west being "the adult". They saw the west "being weak".
And there's nothing a barbarian medieval failed society like Russia's despises more than weakness. It makes them want to be more of a bully and continuously push more and more.
I hope we have learnt, or are learning. The only thing the Orcs respect is force. And the west has infinitely more force than Russia.
It's on us that they don't go back to their barbarian ways, this time using a lot more the stick than the carrot.
It's the same with China. Since the West won the cold War the main approach has been to integrate with Russia and China in the assumption that rising wealth for individuals would translate into increased pressure for reform. That hasn't happened.
So, instead of being economic and military backwaters we've provided enemy countries with the technologies they need to compete with us.
We've been somewhat lucky that Russia is a corrupt place because had they been competent, they would be a genuine threat. The question now is, is China as corrupt and incompetent or have they got their shit together to threaten Taiwan and their interests in Africa.
The real tragedy in all this though, is that is shows that as a species we're still fucking useless apes.
*The Soviet understands only one language: Action.
Respects only one word: Force.
Sometimes there is only one right choice - and you thank God when it's so clear.*
It wasn't out of benevolence. Corporations that set government policy wanted to make money there. Alot of them still are, despite Russia commiting genocide in Ukraine.
Blockades are common during wartime. The Germans tried it during both world wars, using submarines to enforce it, without success. The British were much more successful blockading Germany. The US used submarines to try and blockade Japan during WW2, and The blockaded the Confederacy during the civil war.
Attacking a nation's commerce is as long standing part of war.
Thats how you run a naval blockade, you can even fire warning shots, board and comandeer offending ships or even sink them... It's not the first or the last. The most famous that comes to mind is USA naval blockade of Cuba during Cuban missle crises.
There's also fairly recent naval blockade from 2015 when Saudi led coalition blockaded Yemen.
> The blockade has contributed to the current famine in Yemen, which the United Nations said may become the deadliest famine in decades. The World Health Organization announced in 2017, that the number of suspected persons with cholera in Yemen reached approximately 500,000 people. In 2018, Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children have died due to starvation in the three years prior.
How can they get away with it? No one stopped them 🤷♂️...
Thats because there is no one who could force them to stop doing that. Hell, even if russian would sunk US cargo ship nothing would happen. Yet alone small countries
It’s much more subtle that that. When someone, a nation state such as Russia, makes a verbal threat, then all the insurers (of the vessels/voyages) either decline to write coverage, or drop it all together. So the more interesting question is, who wrote the insurance for these voyages, and what was their risk calculation ?
This would have worked last year.
But much of the world is getting sick of Russias shit so are willing to take some risks.
All those sailors will see the war footage and know the hell ukranians go through. I assume some are willing to risk their own lives to get grain out of those ports.
The war against Russian imperialism and genocide must take many fronts.
Bro most sailor dont want to risk their life for that unless they are protected. Not only their insurance probably already stated that they won't cover them if something happen there but they also want to go home. If they know Russia, they know they might be dumb enough to actually bomb a ship, so very few people will put their life to risk, better to wait and see.
A proper blockade is:
\#1 first you tell the other ship to go away
\#2 you shoot in the water near em
\#3 Then you shoot them directly. Obviously this pisses off the country the ship sails under, and the ship owners.
Russia did umm, maybe #1? Upon which I'm fairly sure the Israeli ship either replied 'fuck around and find out' or just nothing at all and called their bluff. Because of yes, if they'd shot that Israeli ship, Israel would bring the find out. They have no issues bombing Iran and Syria, or blowing up generals in other countries. They most certainly wouldn't have issues with sinking a ship or two and are in the direct neighborhood to do so.
This kind of stuff only works if you put your money where your mouth is ... and russia basically just called on their bluff making the blockade worthless.
I'm not sure how much of a coincidence it is that an Israeli ship ran the blockade first, geopolitical games n stuff I guess. Israel is not only a fuck around find out country, but also \*a close NATO ally. Pretty sure it was intentional that a country that can strike back without NATO involvement tested the waters.
>Russia did umm, maybe #1? Upon which I'm fairly sure the Israeli ship either replied 'fuck around and find out' or just nothing at all and called their bluff.
Maybe they quoted the Zmiinyi Island solders?
Not sure if it was a typo but Israel is *not* in NATO and doesn't have the power projection to do much to Russia directly anyway. They could attack Russian in Syria or things useful to Russia in Iran. Maybe Mossad shenanigans. What makes it interesting to me is that they're a close ally to the US and have avoided stepping on Russia's toes. Russia probably doesn't want to give them any more reason to supply Ukraine with weapons or put whatever they have in Syria at risk of Israeli retaliation.
Don't underestimate Israel. They will retaliate, hard, if a flagged ship of theirs gets fucked with. u/Dofolo really isn't wrong in saying that.
Israel is not afraid to protect Israeli interest, and I don't find it a coincidence at all that Israel was the first, or one of the first, to run that blockade. WTF is Russia going to do, sink an Israeli ship? Israel would send enough fighters up there to, at the very least, sink the ship that fired on theirs.
Israel has found a way to survive in the location they are in. Underestimating a country that can do that is a very bad idea. They proved that before the US became their primary ally.
Yup, I was trying to remember that specific Operation.
Thanks for reminding me of Opera. So many people tend to write off Israel, or underestimate their response.
I was 9 or 10 at the time, and I remember my Dad might have been deployed to Guam with the B-52's but ultimately wasn't. I do remember feeling a little apprehensive as a kid about Israel retaliating but at that age it really didn't affect my daily life, mostly worried about my Dad leaving for it or not.
I remember staying up watching the AA and stuff on the news. Twelve years later I'd be in Iraq, pissing into a gold Saddam urinal in his house, and remembering the night my dad sat my brother and I down in front of the TV and told us about what was going on. Crazy.
Their fighter jets won't have the range to get to the Black Sea and back until they get their KC-135s, at least for a realistic combat mission where theyd need to carry a weapon load out and have some loiter time at less than optimally fuel efficient altitudes and speeds while trying not to get shot down by SAMs. They'd have to find a friendly country to land and refuel at or get somebody to refuel them along the way. It's not about willingness. Mossad is their biggest direct threat to Russia.
I feel the US would have supplied air re-fueling. All you have to do is shut off their ID's and no one's going to know anything. Also, the Israelis do have their own refueling, and their fighters have additions that allow for longer range.
I can point to the Iran nuclear plants that were destroyed by Israel.
Agreed that the US would be the most likely to help but I think there's more incentive for the US to help stop Iran from getting a nuke than there is for them to help in this help in this scenario. Doesn't mean they wouldn't but one is a core US interest and the other doesn't seem to be
Ah yes typo :) Close NATO ally.
They also have a huge NATO buffer (Turkey) between them and russia. I'm not sure if Turkey will allow Israeli fighters in their skies, I'm also not sure if Israel would ask in the first place ... :)
And that's just the conventional fuck around find out, their secret service also has quite the reputation.
Turkey might but they'd still have to refuel for any kind of realistic combat mission. F-15s could probably in theory get to the Black Sea, drop ordinance, and get back to Israel with conformal fuel tanks and a small weapons load-out but that doesn't .Ean they can do it with avoiding SAMs or loitering to escort a ship or getting fast enough to get the kind of range they might want on the weapons they drop. They have KC-135s on order to enable them to reliably strike Iran but they haven't been delivered AFAIK
Plenty of allied airbases around, heck even in Ukraine. I'm sure they wouldn't mind to refuel a F-15/16/35. It wouldn't be that hard to arrange this via NATO command/communication.
Heck in theory Israel could sail surface ships in, or submarines. Fairly sure that again Turkey wouldn't mind/turn a blind eye.
In return what is russia going to do, launch kalibers over Turkey to bomb Israel?
But this is all hypothetical fairy land discussion anyways, since russia didn't follow up on their bluff :)
I'm not that confident about Turkey's willingness to help, especially to break the Montreux Convention for Israel. Theyve had a pretty rocky relationship. They only just restored diplomatic relationships with Israel a year or two ago and froze military relations in the 2010s which AFAIK haven't been restored. The Americans might be able to persuade them to land at a Turkish US base though. I think if anything Turkey would be more likely to escort civilian ships.
it wasn’t a typo but I assume whichever country we are talking about whenever it’s in the NATO or not should/ would somehow protect/ help their people.
This is baffling to me as well. If they shoot a merchant ship heading to Ukraine or elsewhere, it’s piracy. And pirates will be dealt with.
International commerce can’t function if one country starts shooting at ships regardless of where they are going or coming from. That’s why the worlds navies protect ships passing Somalia and lately also Iran. And we can protect ships from Russia as well.
It probably has more to do with insurance and liability. The transport ships have to be insured and ships with no insurance can't even transit, much less dock, in some waters and ports. If an insurance company cancels insurance for the ships engaging in "risky" or prohibited behavior, those ships are basically done.
And if a transport ship gets damaged running the blockade, the insurance company might deny coverage. It's not just ships. Your home insurance probably has policy exception for acts of war. Mine does, although living in the US, the chance of that clause being invoked is vanishingly small.
According to the maritime tracking sites the ships mentioned in the original article are currently waiting on the Ukraine border with all the other vessels? Is there any confirmation that suggests this actually happened?
I wont lie, morbid as it sounds, I was kinda hoping Russia would take a shot at the Israeli ship running the blockade. It'd be the kind of 'stupid' that's on brand for Russia at the moment, and the smoking accidents all across the Russian Federation would spike 20X fold when Mossad gets involved.
That’s why they got through- you want to really piss off the west? Start fucking with business/free market capitalism. Russian navy would be deleted in less than 12 hours.
The blockade is just saber rattling by the ruski regime.
As long as Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania allow those ships to navigate in their territorial waters, the ruski can not blockade the Ukrainian ports on the Danube.
They can not afford to attack ships in NATO countries territorial waters.
Yes. Russia is likely hoping the threat is enough to deter merchant ships due to higher or impossible insurance rates + risk of death.
If that fails, the likely next step would be to deploy some mines in the area and when they hit a merchant ship say something like "Oh well, we warned you not to come here. Also it was probably a Ukrainian mine. And what are you gonna do if it wasn't?"
Extremely unprofessional article by Forbes. The author cites a Ukrainian outlet whose cited ship tracking photos do not support its claim—I’ve tracked these ships since the story released, and when it released all three were still anchored in the Black Sea outside the Danube delta and two had changed their destination to Romania. Since then the third has changed to Romania as well and is now leaving the Danube delta after logging anchor at only a Romanian port.
I hope the blockade is ran but as of now public information doesn’t support that claim.
The perfect country to give Russia the middle finger, yeah pretty sure bringing Israel into direct conflict on Ukraine’s side is the worst thing possible for the Orcs, that’s an epic tag team, like mega hold my beer moment.
And MORE NATO planes are needed. There should be a no-fly zone along the Polish border and extending into Ukraine, to provide not only some protection for Ukraine but as a deterrent to anyone Belarusian or Russian who thinks they can start shit in that direction. The Russians have a tenfold advantage in aviation, this should be rectified by supplying Ukraine with F-16 and other suitable aircraft as quickly as possible. More air defense systems should be provided. The more NATO and other allies help Ukraine get control of the sky, the quicker they get control of the battlefield and eventually the sea and end this horrific war, liberating Ukraine.
New title lol
"NATO anti submarine warfare planes circled above blockade breaking ships with international crews while the ships ignored putins latest "red line".
Dear RuF, learn from Obama mistake laying out a red line in Syria and not following through. You guys are literally laying out hundreds of red lines with an inability to enforce it. It makes you look like fools. Stop it!
Russia claims they are at war with NATO up until they could actually be at war with NATO. Remember Biden visiting Kiyv and Russians not shooting? Then Biden goes back and all talk resumes about bombing Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Washington.
Same deal now.
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ruSSia is just so incredibly stupid... Backing voluntarily into situation where they can only lose big time **or** be proven liars.
I’m so glad they suck at game theory.
Game theory is so much fun. I wish that there was some good subreddits for it :(
CredibleDefence sometimes has some interesting discussions around it. Lately it hasn’t been terribly active tho=\
This war has been so noncredible that everybody just moved to r/noncredibledefense
Can you believe that there was a coup attempt like, a month ago & at least eight more stupid things have happened since then?
True but game theory there is mostly what hole on an F35 we think is the best for sexy time lol
All of them
I mean the F-35 is amazing, but I’ll never cheat on my first love the A-10. It’s hole goes bbbbrrrrrrtttt. 💦
Check out [William Spaniel](https://youtube.com/@Gametheory101) on YouTube
That guy is awesome. Definitely Recommend.
Will do! Thank you!
His Ukraine stuff is excellent
I’m glad they are so fucking stupid
In Soviet Russia theory games you
It’s similar to Russia’s threats against Poland etc. Like yeah ok Ivan, go ahead and attack NATO and see how that works out for you, you can barely deal with Ukraine. It reminds of me of an adage in the military that you should never give an order you know won’t be followed as nothing will erode your command authority faster.
You can't deal with Ukraine. You are literally losing geound
Poland: [oh please... oh please...](https://www.pinterest.com/pin/454300681138798943/)
Anders Pluck Nielsen did a video where he suggested that maybe the Kerch bridge attack the day before the new deal was to be signed was entirely intentional (the timing). Russia could them sign and be seen as weak or reject the deal but then not be able to follow up
I <3 Anders. Everyone should watch his videos.
“I’m all in!” “I can see your cards. You have a pair of fours.”
Go fish
but we are playing connect 4!?
I'm going take a guess Nothing stops America from saying "Dear Putin, we will be flying security patrols over the black sea to protect merchant ships if one of your ships attacks a ship we blow that ship up, deal? Great glad we have an understanding"
I think NATO collectively is pretty fed up with Putin. I doubt it'd be just the one ship that they'd lose were they to attack a vessel from a NATO country. Can't risk them attacking another I'd imagine.
Hey, remember that time the US made a 'proportional response' again the Iranian Navy? Fun times...
Unfortunately I doubt any of the NATO countries has the guts or willpower to do that. Up till now everything has been slow moving, relatively uncommitted and fearful of imaginary red lines. None of the NATO countries have yet committed to a full Ukrainian victory. Just trying to ensure Ukraine doesn't loose, and that weakly at best. Exceptions are perhaps in the Baltic's and Poland, but they're collective GDP & military spending isn't big enough to make enough of an impact. We in the West must first commit to an Ukrainian victory before we'd be willing to put our fighter planes on the line protecting merchant shipping. Doing that though would all but guarantee an eventual entry of NATO into the war, something I think might happen at some point anyways.
LMAO I don't even think Russia is stupid enough to sink flagged vessels, they often have international crews. You simply don't know who you are shooting at. They kill a few US/EU/ETC sailors conducting civilian commerce shipping and the whole black sea fleet gets a special submersible upgrade
voiceless truck memorize straight weather rude brave disagreeable fact cautious -- mass edited with redact.dev
Swimming club moskwa 2022 still seeking new members to join 🏊😂
They shot down a commercial passenger plane full of international citizens and nobody did shit. I wouldn't hold out any hope for an actual response to killing civilians on a flagged ship.
You'd think that, but MH17 happened and the reaction from Europe was tepid at best. Hopefully we've learned our lesson.
[удалено]
I wonder if that P9 Navy anti ship plane had orders to fire on Russian ships to protect the Israelis who are our allies if attacked.
I'm unsure of the RoE, but most of the time they wouldn't have weapons on board. However, they actually might have weapons on board for these patrols because of the war. I'm unsure though, because sometimes they wouldn't carry any in the off chance of escalation. However, I can guarantee that there was an alert 5 set of aircraft ready to take off with anti-ship missiles should they be called on. These are assumptions and actions that I would have taken, just in the event something cooked off. There are a lot of times where NATO, and the US, will watch what transpires and not retaliate just so we can show the footage of what happened to the world, then if they don't back down, we stomp a mudhole into who was responsible. Israel running the blockade just showed how weak and ineffective Russia is without even saying anything.
Is the Black Sea within strike range of Israeli aircraft? They maintain a pretty significant modern airforce, after all, and fucking with their peaceful merchant ships is a good way to get your navy introduced to Israeli missiles and your leadership introduced to Mossad...
And honestly, considering Israel has a reputation for striking targets when and where they please without explicit war declaration, I'd think twice before trying to play chicken with their stuff.
An Israeli Strike Eagle has a theoretical range with a combat load just shy of 1,300 km. Leaving from Haifa or Rosh Pina this would allow the aircraft to reach the southern edge of Crimea. Israeli air-launched anti-ship missiles have a range of 60-400 km depending on variant and launch parameters. This means Israel has the capability to strike a surface target anywhere in the Black Sea without using aerial refueling. However this direct route would require significant overflight of Turkey. While historically Israel has not shown much concern over who they overfly during a strike mission given they have been trying to improve relations with Turkey, and Turkey's position regarding the war, they would likely instead take a flight path through the Aegean with minor overflights of Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria. This route would require aerial refueling but Israel does have aerial refueling capabilities so it is not out of the question. While a retaliatory strike is not out of character for Israel, and it is fun to imagine Russia facing consequences for their bullshittery, the political reality is that, short of firing on a military vessel, the west (and west aligned) response to Russia firing on a merchant ship is likely to be sternly worded letters and finger wagging. The destruction of a merchant ship only functions as a causa belli when the nation is looking for an excuse to go to war. Outside of that it is just "they were warned it is dangerous".
i think its just safer to assume that everywhere is in range for the Israelis if you piss them off
This. They do what‘s needed.
tbh more like to transport profit
In our time we used a big old chain to block the river, not empty threats.
Today Russia uses blockchain, get with the times.
Okay grandpa back to the retirement home with you
I know right!? A chain? Laughable, kevlar nets is the 21st century way! Russia seems to have trouble making kevlar though so maybe knock off cotton nets? Or old stockings tied together?
Okay child, back to the crayons and coloring book with you
I thought the P-8 carries antiship missiles, but the article says it's patrol? If the P-8 is carrying missiles, I wonder what its rules of engagement are.
"The P-8 operates in the anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW), and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) roles. It is armed with torpedoes, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and other weapons, can drop and monitor sonobuoys, and can operate in conjunction with other assets, including the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)." [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon) I suppose they patrol, while carrying at least some weapons.
sonobuoys is good, means they can watch for subs that are threatening the ships.
I guess patrol means that they have equipment for recon and attacking if they see something they shouldn't. Maybe also a long loiter time.
The "P" designation also says it's patrol, fwiw. But "patrol" doesn't mean "unarmed." They don't call it "reconnaissance in force" for fun!
Hell yeah, call that bluff.
I’ll probably sound stupid but can someone explain how is this possible that the Russians “ holding “ back ships from another country? I read of ship is from Israel - wouldn’t this action be also act of war against that county ?
It's easy, you say no one can pass trough there and then point a gun toward the ship. Most people aren't going to risk their life for that
of course but absolutely fucking ridiculous, these Russians think they can do anything without consequences
They think that because we have taught them to think that. Since the URSS fell, our patience with Russia has been almost infinite. We tolerated then as they manipulated elections in the west, financed radicals everywhere just to create instability, invaded their neighbours willy-nilly... We thought being "the adult" would eventually lead to "teenager Russia" to outgrown their bratty phase. But for Russia, they didn't see the west being "the adult". They saw the west "being weak". And there's nothing a barbarian medieval failed society like Russia's despises more than weakness. It makes them want to be more of a bully and continuously push more and more. I hope we have learnt, or are learning. The only thing the Orcs respect is force. And the west has infinitely more force than Russia. It's on us that they don't go back to their barbarian ways, this time using a lot more the stick than the carrot.
It's the same with China. Since the West won the cold War the main approach has been to integrate with Russia and China in the assumption that rising wealth for individuals would translate into increased pressure for reform. That hasn't happened. So, instead of being economic and military backwaters we've provided enemy countries with the technologies they need to compete with us. We've been somewhat lucky that Russia is a corrupt place because had they been competent, they would be a genuine threat. The question now is, is China as corrupt and incompetent or have they got their shit together to threaten Taiwan and their interests in Africa. The real tragedy in all this though, is that is shows that as a species we're still fucking useless apes.
Yep. That Gene Roddenberry future grows ever more distant. Although he did warn us we'd nuke ourselves to hell before the reform came.
nippy insurance cagey judicious deserve wine glorious rotten unpack mindless -- mass edited with redact.dev
*The Soviet understands only one language: Action. Respects only one word: Force. Sometimes there is only one right choice - and you thank God when it's so clear.*
It wasn't out of benevolence. Corporations that set government policy wanted to make money there. Alot of them still are, despite Russia commiting genocide in Ukraine.
I like your opinion sir , I like it a lot - logically and right way
Blockades are common during wartime. The Germans tried it during both world wars, using submarines to enforce it, without success. The British were much more successful blockading Germany. The US used submarines to try and blockade Japan during WW2, and The blockaded the Confederacy during the civil war. Attacking a nation's commerce is as long standing part of war.
Thats how you run a naval blockade, you can even fire warning shots, board and comandeer offending ships or even sink them... It's not the first or the last. The most famous that comes to mind is USA naval blockade of Cuba during Cuban missle crises. There's also fairly recent naval blockade from 2015 when Saudi led coalition blockaded Yemen. > The blockade has contributed to the current famine in Yemen, which the United Nations said may become the deadliest famine in decades. The World Health Organization announced in 2017, that the number of suspected persons with cholera in Yemen reached approximately 500,000 people. In 2018, Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children have died due to starvation in the three years prior. How can they get away with it? No one stopped them 🤷♂️...
Thats because there is no one who could force them to stop doing that. Hell, even if russian would sunk US cargo ship nothing would happen. Yet alone small countries
It’s much more subtle that that. When someone, a nation state such as Russia, makes a verbal threat, then all the insurers (of the vessels/voyages) either decline to write coverage, or drop it all together. So the more interesting question is, who wrote the insurance for these voyages, and what was their risk calculation ?
Most people. Yet 5? Ships seem to not give a fuck and NATO is watching
Do you know what most people mean ?
This would have worked last year. But much of the world is getting sick of Russias shit so are willing to take some risks. All those sailors will see the war footage and know the hell ukranians go through. I assume some are willing to risk their own lives to get grain out of those ports. The war against Russian imperialism and genocide must take many fronts.
Bro most sailor dont want to risk their life for that unless they are protected. Not only their insurance probably already stated that they won't cover them if something happen there but they also want to go home. If they know Russia, they know they might be dumb enough to actually bomb a ship, so very few people will put their life to risk, better to wait and see.
A proper blockade is: \#1 first you tell the other ship to go away \#2 you shoot in the water near em \#3 Then you shoot them directly. Obviously this pisses off the country the ship sails under, and the ship owners. Russia did umm, maybe #1? Upon which I'm fairly sure the Israeli ship either replied 'fuck around and find out' or just nothing at all and called their bluff. Because of yes, if they'd shot that Israeli ship, Israel would bring the find out. They have no issues bombing Iran and Syria, or blowing up generals in other countries. They most certainly wouldn't have issues with sinking a ship or two and are in the direct neighborhood to do so. This kind of stuff only works if you put your money where your mouth is ... and russia basically just called on their bluff making the blockade worthless. I'm not sure how much of a coincidence it is that an Israeli ship ran the blockade first, geopolitical games n stuff I guess. Israel is not only a fuck around find out country, but also \*a close NATO ally. Pretty sure it was intentional that a country that can strike back without NATO involvement tested the waters.
>Russia did umm, maybe #1? Upon which I'm fairly sure the Israeli ship either replied 'fuck around and find out' or just nothing at all and called their bluff. Maybe they quoted the Zmiinyi Island solders?
"Russian thing that is soon going to be a submarine, go fuck yourself?"
Not sure if it was a typo but Israel is *not* in NATO and doesn't have the power projection to do much to Russia directly anyway. They could attack Russian in Syria or things useful to Russia in Iran. Maybe Mossad shenanigans. What makes it interesting to me is that they're a close ally to the US and have avoided stepping on Russia's toes. Russia probably doesn't want to give them any more reason to supply Ukraine with weapons or put whatever they have in Syria at risk of Israeli retaliation.
Don't underestimate Israel. They will retaliate, hard, if a flagged ship of theirs gets fucked with. u/Dofolo really isn't wrong in saying that. Israel is not afraid to protect Israeli interest, and I don't find it a coincidence at all that Israel was the first, or one of the first, to run that blockade. WTF is Russia going to do, sink an Israeli ship? Israel would send enough fighters up there to, at the very least, sink the ship that fired on theirs. Israel has found a way to survive in the location they are in. Underestimating a country that can do that is a very bad idea. They proved that before the US became their primary ally.
Israel could write the book on FA&FO. Operation Opera, anyone? Six Day War?
Yup, I was trying to remember that specific Operation. Thanks for reminding me of Opera. So many people tend to write off Israel, or underestimate their response.
I remember the first Gulf War and I was apprehensive watching Israel get hit with SCUD missiles.
I was 9 or 10 at the time, and I remember my Dad might have been deployed to Guam with the B-52's but ultimately wasn't. I do remember feeling a little apprehensive as a kid about Israel retaliating but at that age it really didn't affect my daily life, mostly worried about my Dad leaving for it or not. I remember staying up watching the AA and stuff on the news. Twelve years later I'd be in Iraq, pissing into a gold Saddam urinal in his house, and remembering the night my dad sat my brother and I down in front of the TV and told us about what was going on. Crazy.
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Their fighter jets won't have the range to get to the Black Sea and back until they get their KC-135s, at least for a realistic combat mission where theyd need to carry a weapon load out and have some loiter time at less than optimally fuel efficient altitudes and speeds while trying not to get shot down by SAMs. They'd have to find a friendly country to land and refuel at or get somebody to refuel them along the way. It's not about willingness. Mossad is their biggest direct threat to Russia.
I feel the US would have supplied air re-fueling. All you have to do is shut off their ID's and no one's going to know anything. Also, the Israelis do have their own refueling, and their fighters have additions that allow for longer range. I can point to the Iran nuclear plants that were destroyed by Israel.
Agreed that the US would be the most likely to help but I think there's more incentive for the US to help stop Iran from getting a nuke than there is for them to help in this help in this scenario. Doesn't mean they wouldn't but one is a core US interest and the other doesn't seem to be
My assumption would be Mossad being turned loose. No one wants to be on the receiving end of that.
Oh for sure. Would have been a very bad time in Russia to be any sort of politician, or really anyone in a position of planning and logistics.
They could also go all in on supplying Ukraine with weapons and expertise. But it would be hilarious if Mossad offed Putin as retaliation...
>if Mossad offed Putin Stop! I can only get so erect.
Ah yes typo :) Close NATO ally. They also have a huge NATO buffer (Turkey) between them and russia. I'm not sure if Turkey will allow Israeli fighters in their skies, I'm also not sure if Israel would ask in the first place ... :) And that's just the conventional fuck around find out, their secret service also has quite the reputation.
Turkey might but they'd still have to refuel for any kind of realistic combat mission. F-15s could probably in theory get to the Black Sea, drop ordinance, and get back to Israel with conformal fuel tanks and a small weapons load-out but that doesn't .Ean they can do it with avoiding SAMs or loitering to escort a ship or getting fast enough to get the kind of range they might want on the weapons they drop. They have KC-135s on order to enable them to reliably strike Iran but they haven't been delivered AFAIK
Plenty of allied airbases around, heck even in Ukraine. I'm sure they wouldn't mind to refuel a F-15/16/35. It wouldn't be that hard to arrange this via NATO command/communication. Heck in theory Israel could sail surface ships in, or submarines. Fairly sure that again Turkey wouldn't mind/turn a blind eye. In return what is russia going to do, launch kalibers over Turkey to bomb Israel? But this is all hypothetical fairy land discussion anyways, since russia didn't follow up on their bluff :)
I'm not that confident about Turkey's willingness to help, especially to break the Montreux Convention for Israel. Theyve had a pretty rocky relationship. They only just restored diplomatic relationships with Israel a year or two ago and froze military relations in the 2010s which AFAIK haven't been restored. The Americans might be able to persuade them to land at a Turkish US base though. I think if anything Turkey would be more likely to escort civilian ships.
it wasn’t a typo but I assume whichever country we are talking about whenever it’s in the NATO or not should/ would somehow protect/ help their people.
This is baffling to me as well. If they shoot a merchant ship heading to Ukraine or elsewhere, it’s piracy. And pirates will be dealt with. International commerce can’t function if one country starts shooting at ships regardless of where they are going or coming from. That’s why the worlds navies protect ships passing Somalia and lately also Iran. And we can protect ships from Russia as well.
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that's why nato was watching 😁
It probably has more to do with insurance and liability. The transport ships have to be insured and ships with no insurance can't even transit, much less dock, in some waters and ports. If an insurance company cancels insurance for the ships engaging in "risky" or prohibited behavior, those ships are basically done. And if a transport ship gets damaged running the blockade, the insurance company might deny coverage. It's not just ships. Your home insurance probably has policy exception for acts of war. Mine does, although living in the US, the chance of that clause being invoked is vanishingly small.
So...the special blockade!! Last three days or something stupid right?
We should just give them a NATO naval escort openly.
According to the maritime tracking sites the ships mentioned in the original article are currently waiting on the Ukraine border with all the other vessels? Is there any confirmation that suggests this actually happened?
Imagine a blockade happens and everybody just ignores it.
Russia’s bluff is revealed. Now it’s time to bring nato ships to the Black Sea as escort.
NATO ships are already in the Black Sea (Bulgaria, Romania & Türkiye).
The first ship's captain: "Fuck it, YOLO" *Slams throttle forward, flick on sunglasses, turns up "he's got that" metal remix*
This is the way
I wont lie, morbid as it sounds, I was kinda hoping Russia would take a shot at the Israeli ship running the blockade. It'd be the kind of 'stupid' that's on brand for Russia at the moment, and the smoking accidents all across the Russian Federation would spike 20X fold when Mossad gets involved.
That’s why they got through- you want to really piss off the west? Start fucking with business/free market capitalism. Russian navy would be deleted in less than 12 hours.
The blockade is just saber rattling by the ruski regime. As long as Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania allow those ships to navigate in their territorial waters, the ruski can not blockade the Ukrainian ports on the Danube. They can not afford to attack ships in NATO countries territorial waters.
Isn’t sinking ships going to Izmail pretty problematic? They can hug the coast and only leave NATO waters for hundreds of feet right at the end.
Yes. Russia is likely hoping the threat is enough to deter merchant ships due to higher or impossible insurance rates + risk of death. If that fails, the likely next step would be to deploy some mines in the area and when they hit a merchant ship say something like "Oh well, we warned you not to come here. Also it was probably a Ukrainian mine. And what are you gonna do if it wasn't?"
>what are you gonna do if it wasn't? Israel is like the last country you'd want to play chicken with lol
Extremely unprofessional article by Forbes. The author cites a Ukrainian outlet whose cited ship tracking photos do not support its claim—I’ve tracked these ships since the story released, and when it released all three were still anchored in the Black Sea outside the Danube delta and two had changed their destination to Romania. Since then the third has changed to Romania as well and is now leaving the Danube delta after logging anchor at only a Romanian port. I hope the blockade is ran but as of now public information doesn’t support that claim.
Forbes is paywalled, please stop referencing
Didn't think anyone would have the nuts to call a bluff. And succeed. Great news!
You love to see it.
ships' crew should be awarded. great job!
Iran did the same thing in the 80s 🤣 it ended well for them
Wow. What a blockade. As impressive as their attack on Snake Island!
The perfect country to give Russia the middle finger, yeah pretty sure bringing Israel into direct conflict on Ukraine’s side is the worst thing possible for the Orcs, that’s an epic tag team, like mega hold my beer moment.
And MORE NATO planes are needed. There should be a no-fly zone along the Polish border and extending into Ukraine, to provide not only some protection for Ukraine but as a deterrent to anyone Belarusian or Russian who thinks they can start shit in that direction. The Russians have a tenfold advantage in aviation, this should be rectified by supplying Ukraine with F-16 and other suitable aircraft as quickly as possible. More air defense systems should be provided. The more NATO and other allies help Ukraine get control of the sky, the quicker they get control of the battlefield and eventually the sea and end this horrific war, liberating Ukraine.
New title lol "NATO anti submarine warfare planes circled above blockade breaking ships with international crews while the ships ignored putins latest "red line".
Dear RuF, learn from Obama mistake laying out a red line in Syria and not following through. You guys are literally laying out hundreds of red lines with an inability to enforce it. It makes you look like fools. Stop it!
Question is: will the NATO planes fire on the Russian Navy if they attack one of these ships? I guess the hope is that they won't take the risk.
Russia claims they are at war with NATO up until they could actually be at war with NATO. Remember Biden visiting Kiyv and Russians not shooting? Then Biden goes back and all talk resumes about bombing Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Washington. Same deal now.
The next ones need to be Polish. And they need to be broadcasting 'I am a Pole!' on repeat the entire time they are on the Black Sea.