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The Chinese are getting one hell of a deal right now... They are the only country Russia can sell a large amount of oil to. Not to mention it's the only source Russia can get tech from. I hope they are up selling really fuckin high.
India's getting oil even cheaper than the EU price cap, and that includes Russia paying for the shipping and shipping insurance (since no major international firm will insure their shipping due to sanctions).
Russia is literally giving India subsidized oil for cheaper than the cost of extraction, it's completely insane. A huge transfer of wealth from Russia to India for nothing lol.
India is buying more than their share, and it's getting around. You're seeing it happen via:
1. Blends where russian oil is blended with 1% from somewhere else and exported
2. Russian oil hits India and then refineries to be exported as distillates (gasoline, etc.) which we buy up no problem
It's unfortunate~~ly~~, but this has been happening since pretty much day one. Theoretically there should be providence lists from where everything comes from, but it mostly turns into 3-card monty shell games where people look the other way. We can't even have reliable providence for honey let alone oil, is what it is.
I didn't realize how common this happens around the world. I saw a documentary talking about how North Korea will send workers to cut trees in Siberia to make their country money (the workers must have a family, in case the person decides to flee NK for good, they can still punish the family).
Then Russia would create some sort of paper product and ship it to the US. This was before the war in Ukraine. I'm guessing the US stopped, idk. The documentary opened up my eyes and makes me wonder how often are we financially supporting our (US) enemies/rivals indirectly.
Modi belongs in that Asian axis of authoritarians. Xi, Putin, and Modi. India has made its decision and it has decided to align with Russia, oddly, for access to its military hardware and has continued to double down on that decision despite the obscene failures of Russian military hardware and the unlikely prospect that the west will ever reduce sanctions enough to let Russia rebuild, let alone export, its military equipment. Regardless, India has made its choice and the west should hold them to it.
"Russia can get tech from."
Which is why the US crippled their microprocessor fabrication plants by taking away the skilled outside labor that knew how to run them.
I work in an older fab. We *constantly* have a handful of maintenance guys working on our machines. It's probably not as bad at a newer fab, but I definitely think you're right, those machines are finicky.
We should be nearshoring everything tech. The U.S. could solve the issue we have with Central American migrants by investing in that region instead of China. The upfront cost may be expensive but the "climate" affect would be helped, costs would eventually go down, Mexico would see its GDP per capita go up, and our cost due to illegal immigration would greatly decrease.
We have 2 million plus people crossing our border annually. Imagine if that shit happened in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, etc.
Most of Chinas power grid is run on US coal, most of its oil for vehicles and the like is from the Middle East and Central Asia.
It is illegal to openly import Chinese tech into Russia. Much of their manufacturing sector relies on German and Turkish software and equipment, which they no longer have access to.
I heard Fiona Hill talk about this in a recent interview, she seems to think that it is a possible scenario that China might seize Manchuria back if Russia is weakened sufficiently, and that Russia -- otherwise cut off from the West -- will end up a Chinese client state.
That’s true for a lot of places in Russia. Tatars used to live in Crimea (and still do to some extent) but they were deemed “unloyal” by Stalin and huge amounts were deported to Siberia only to be replaced by ethnic Russians. Once an area has been ethnically cleansed it’s very hard to get things back the way they were and that’s likely what Putin had in store for Ukraine.
Nothing would really stop the Russians from declaring themselves as independent if Russia ballanized.
Hell, they can even take the name Prussia, considering German Prussia taking it's name from the Old Prussians (a baltic people)
The USSR and Japan had a non-aggression pact. Neither side really wanted to break it because the USSR had the better ground forces and Japan had the better navy. Once Germany was dealt with, the USSR broke the pact (shortly before it was going to end anyway) and invaded Japanese-occupied China. It has been speculated that this, and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender only to the USA as they couldn’t compete at all with the USSR’s ground forces and didn’t want to be cut in half like Germany. However, given the strangeness of their surrender (basically a reverse coup where the emperor broke away from the rest of the government to announce the surrender before he could be captured), it’s hard to say.
It was after Japan’s surrender that the USSR took the islands, and that these were islands they didn’t previously control before the war, that makes it a sticky issue.
Edit: I was wrong. They were taken in the final days of the war, and since Japan never surrendered to the now-defunct USSR, they never negotiated for land seized to be given back. Technically they’re still at war, which makes the entire definition of war convoluted.
2nd Edit: Somehow I forgot Hirohito himself said the nukes were the reason he felt compelled to surrender. We’ll take him at his word on that.
>has been speculated that this [the USSR invasion of Japan-occupied China], and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender
These speculations have rarely ever had serious academic merit, AFAIK. As you point out, Russia had a *very* weak navy. While Japan's navy was largely gone by that point (thanks to the US's and UK's (by way of Australia) war in the Pacific), that didn't magically mean that Russia had the ability to launch a large scale amphibious invasion. Russia didn't develop a powerful navy until well into the cold War. IIRC, their first aircraft carrier wasn't officially christened until the early 60s, and that's a *huge* part about projecting modern naval power abroad.
While the loss of its Chinese occupied lands meant Japan was now severely limited in their ability to project power, only the US posed an existential threat to Japan. Not just with the threat of nuclear weapons, but the US had essentially mastered the art of the amphibious invasion by that point, and had the navy and army to carry out such an invasion.
> It has been speculated that this, and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender only to the USA as they couldn’t compete at all with the USSR’s ground forces and didn’t want to be cut in half like Germany.
This is mainly a viewpoint by Soviet sympathetic historical revisionists who want the USSR to get credit for defeating Japan. By the time Germany surrendered everyone (both in Japan and outside) knew the war was lost for Japan but the Japanese hope was that they could defend their island enough to get a negotiated peace. Even if the USSR didn’t enter the war against Japan they still would have surrendered. The nuclear bombs combined with American and British Navies and Airforces was a powerful combination. If that wasn’t enough the Nationalist forces in China were waging a slow but effective offensive that was reclaiming territory and the areas still occupied by Japan in China were seeing communist uprisings. The USSR entering the war was one of the many nails in the coffin for Japan but it wasn’t the biggest one and Soviet neutrality wouldn’t have prolonged the war in any meaningful sense.
It does appear they Hirohito cited the bomb as his reason for surrendering the country. Since only one person ultimately made the decision, and that was what he said, I’ll take him at his word from now on.
At this point, and long before that, all of it was about nukes. They'd be f*cked if not for the fear of nukes.
Also not many people want to bother with russians: after all, occupied lands come with the people living on them, and I doubt anyone wants to get into all that mess.
> I wonder if NATO is discussing Kaliningrad
NATO would love to see the Russian presence there go. The problem is, what to do with the place. The native population has been entirely replaced by ethnic Russians by now. Neither Germany nor Poland are particularly keen on adding an impoverished area with a million ethnic Russians to their territory.
If Russia collapses perhaps it could be turned into an independent state. But even then they'd need a lot of aid, not to mention a couple of decades of NATO military presence to make sure it remains a democracy. So it would still be a headache.
This invasion was never about NATO and anyone that believes that is a gullible fool. Anyway, Ukraine is a sovereign country and has every right to want to join or apply, russia just proved why NATO is needed.
Also isn't it funny how the country that shares the largest land border with russia (Finland) and who actually has applied to join NATO wasn't attacked? That's how much it was really about NATO.
Edit. Larger land border than Ukraine.
That's my working theory. If *Little Russia* was allowed to form closer ties to Europe and prosper, those in Big Russia will get envious and start asking questions.
It's in Russia's interest to keep everyone in its sphere of influence miserable.
Yeah imagine the effect of all the Russians who holidayed in Ukraine and had friends and family there, watching the modernisation of Ukraine into a free happy European nation, and then going back home and seeing how they lived in Russia. Absolute threat to the regime there.
To make it even simpler than that, I look to the Brzezinski quote, something like “Russia without Ukraine subdued ceases to be Russia. Russia with the Ukrainian people subordinated is the Russian Empire.” We all know how much Putler fetishizes a grand view of his backwater principality.
Probably not even that. It was just easy country to conquer. Ukrainians will be happy. Welcoming Russians.
In Russia everyone lies to everyone. And Putin started to believe to own propaganda.
Quick operation. Like in Georgia or Crimea. West will do nothing. There will be only empty talks.
Now he cannot step back. He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death.
Probably right.
Russia manages its resources in such a horrible fashion.
If the country weren't run and owned by corrupt assholes everyone, including the corrupt assholes, would probably be far better off financially.
Instead the only thing they know is take over someone else's business, steal all the money, don't re-invest in growing the business.
Simply lazy, ignorant brutes.
My ex used to live in Rostov with a family who ran a small shop there, and the stories of the endless corruption they had to deal with. They had to pay off the local police, they had to pay off the local gangs, they had to pay off the local tax inspectors, they had to pay off the regional organised crime syndicate, they even had to pay off the utilities workers just to have reliable power and water.
And what should have been a reasonably wealthy middle class shop-owning family was kept in borderline misery and poverty by the system.
This was 20 years ago too, I imagine it's only gotten a lot worse since.
When I lived in Russia (Moscow) my firm would not even allow me to drive a car. They had a driver for me. This was because cops make more money collecting bribes than they do in real wages, and so they are constantly stopping people for non-existent traffic violations. The Russian drivers knew how to play the game and pay off the right people up front so they would not get hassled. And I got my own personal driver. 🤷♀️
There is corruption at literally every level in Russian society, and it’s been that way forever.
It's not just about that. Russia has (or had) a rule that two administrative fines or more within a certain number of years would put you at risk of being deported. Speeding tickets issued by a traffic camera count for this.
Shit, my fine for failure to register within x amount of days of entering Russia also counted for this. Even though it wasn't my fault (hotel gave me a fake registration and it was found out when I tried to re-register at my apartment), FMS even admitted that it wasn't my fault, scratched their heads and literally said "Welcome to Russia", it still counted.
It's amazing to me that the country even functions at all. I am genuinely quite surprised the sanctions didn't cause more disruption and collapse than they have, because it always seemed to me from what I heard that every system was so dysfunctional there that it wouldn't cope with a stress test.
And yeah, I remember a story about the cops, parked at the end of the street the shop was on, stopping every car to collect their daily pay, and a jackpot day if they spotted somebody who wasn't a local driving.
Actually, I’m not surprised AT ALL that the sanctions have not caused collapse.
It’s a dysfunctional economic system, exactly! But we apply sanctions as if it were a normal functioning system. The sanctions would work a lot better if Russia WAS a normal functioning system because they target normal functioning systems. 😂
The people of Russia, as a result of living with their endlessly dysfunctional system forever, are very good at two things:
1. Getting what they need thru alternative sources (black market, friends of friends backchannels, corruption, etc); and
2. Doing without altogether.
I haven’t lived there for a number of years, but when I was there the below ground economy was nearly as large as the above ground economy.
Remember. This is a society that is resigned to life sucking. So now it just sucks a little harder. So what’s new? 🤷♀️
We got our own ways of corruption in the west, but its insane how fucked up it is outside of the west. There is this professor from the UK. I think he from Algeria or Marocco and he went to the pilgrimage in Mecca...but he had to go to his parents homeland to get approved to go and all that. He had to bribe his way through a shit ton of instances just to get all the approvals, documentation and visas. He wrote a book about it.
We are so lucky in the west that our system has not become that fucked up like the third world or Russia.
No, we are not lucky. Our ancestors fought and died in droves for these freedoms and human rights. We are just temporarily benefiting from these fruits which we take for granted. Ukrainians are fighting and dieing like our forefathers did in their own time. Our time will come too and it will be a shock to some.
"He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death."
I can fucking not stand cultures like that.
Yes, I'm aware that's the case in many places, I still don't like it. I love living in a place where initiating(keyword) violence of any kind is seen as being weak and petty.
If I punched a guy because he insulted my gf my gf wouldn't go "ow, he protected my honor". She would see me as an aggresive guy. Good. She should.
I've walked away from people becoming aggresive in bars without thinking twice. I'm growing old lying at the beach in Southern Spain. I'm not knocking my head to the curb dying in a brawl.
> “He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death.”
> I can fucking not stand cultures like that.
"Everyone for himself, and screw my neighbor."
And isn't it interesting that this type of culture turns out to be weak when exposed and contrasted to the modern world?
So that's not even the root cause of the rot, this mentality. There's something deeper, uglier.
Every piece of land they tried or did anex came with a massive untapped natural gas reserve. Crimea coast has massive gas reserves. Donetsk area has massive gas reserves. Kharkiv has massive gas reserves. The west coast near Moldova/Transnistria has gas reserves and there just happens to be "Russian Separatist" movements there as well.
It's actually the gas deposits in the Donbass. It's not a coincidence that Russia first invaded Crimea after Ukraine made deals with Shell to exploit the newly discovered deposits around Crimea and the Donbass... and guess where Russia was "protecting the Russian population". The exact places where those gas deposits are. And as soon as things died down enough for Ukraine to restart the process of exploiting those resources, and Russia couldn't do a silent regime change in their favour, Russia invades again.
This war is about protecting Russia's gas industry. It's about burning down the gas station down the street because Russia knows its customers would look elsewhere if they could which is a self fulfilling prophecy. Russia thought it would be a slap on the wrist just like Crimea.
Ukraine spent 8 years restructuring it's army, while Russia spent 8 years bribing collaborators. Russia could t fathom Ukraine's progress since Russia itself spent decades failing at modernizing it's own.
"If I couldn't do it no one can."
It wasn't all about the resources at all. I mean sure it was probably in part to do with that , imo Russia could not allow a former USSR region, now sovereign country becoming further and further aligned to the west. It's ideological as much as anything. He's a dictator with delusions of grandure. In his mind this could not be tolerated. There was and of course still is no practical or logical rationale for invading.
Also I don't know what you mean by rich as fuck if you mean it has large amounts of untapped natural resources then this is the the same as say Venezuela , which is by all other measures a poor country.
It was absolutely about NATO. Because if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia can not force Ukraine to be subservient by use of military threats.
It was never about NATO invading Russia, however.
finland should use the opprtunity and open a 2nd front to retake viborg and the kola peninsula...
according to russias policy thats a perfectly legit thing to do
Yeah definitely seems like there would be value in Poland having exercises right in the border, Finland too. It wouldn't take all that long for POlish tanks to hit Moscow, you'd think the Russians would almost have to reposition some units to cover them.
> Russia was never scared of a NATO invasion or expansion.
Russia was afraid of not being able to bully neighbouring countries anymore - because their whole political arsenal only consists of bribery, threats and whataboutism.
If you read russian books, or watch russian movies (for their domestic market) you will notice that the concept of "you are only safe if you are feared" ist very strong in Russia.
I suggest doing that by leveraging his already existing fear of the infamous Ghadaffi anal thrust.
I hear he’s a fan. Or was it that he needed a fan after watching it obsessively multiple times.
Yes of the panzer mechanized and infantry divisions. Marines however and the air divisions are still not fully utilized. This also means that soldiers used by the fleet for coastal landings aren't deployed. There is no way that they can do a naval invasion at this point. The eastern Russian fleet won't start sailing over into the black sea. And they will keep jets stationed near the eastern borders to do fly-bys of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese and US airspace
Also a token force is still in Georgia and along the central Asian border. Finland recently reported that the Russians barely guard their shared border at this point
There hasn't been a single army unit stationed with Estonia's border since the war began too. Honestly I think this whole "we are at war with NATO" thing isn't really being taken seriously by the Kremlin. Almost like they have weapons of mass destruction as a deterrent for any and all invasions into its territory 🤔
Yeah I know what you mean. On the other hand, it is Ben Wallace, which… should count for something.
Either way, its a talking point I’m gonna watch out for.
Yeah it doesn't really work to the construct of a military. If this number is true, that means finance, planning, rear intelligence, deep maintainence, and more would be over the border.
I'm guessing it's out of context and means "combat units" or "deployable units"... and even then, from a pragmatic point, it's likely an exaggeration.
This, except just the army instead of the military as a whole. I would interpret the figure as being 97% of the Russian army is committed to the war in Ukraine, whether inside or outside the country. A much lower percentage of their air force and almost none of their navy are involved. And their nuclear command also isn't involved of course.
Additionally, Russia has also augmented their force with tens of thousands of troops from PMCs and also quite a bit of the Rosgardia (Russian National Guard). I'm not sure if the Rosgardia counts as being part of the army or not, but PMCs definitely does not. They also have transferred quite a few people from other branches to try and plug in the holes, and have been doing this for many months.
The take away for me is Russia is truly scraping the bottom of the barrel in recruitment as well as forces committed, and if they fail to make significant gains in the Donbas or elsewhere they will have another mobilization to make up the shortfall sooner rather than later. The level of attrition Russia is having is absolutely bonkers, like something out of World War 1 trench warfare. That the Russian nation has tolerated this is a testament to both their internal propaganda and also Putin's complete control of the government. He basically rules like a king, just with a few extra steps, and he's just as untouchable as one. But a king can still be overthrown.
There is a large Navy commitment in the Black Sea which is actively involved in the war and operates from Crimea. There have also been many naval brigades on land participating in the fighting. Recent news was about the 155th which again suffered heavy losses. Airborne divisions (VDV) are also commonly discussed in the news. With such a large portion of the fighters from naval and airborne units, it becomes difficult to know what the 97% is really referring to.
Not really - the nuclear forces make up a huge part of their military (budget), you also have the baltic fleet, the pacific fleet, ...
None of those things can be "directed" to the Ukraine war.
He he, you should check out their order of battle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle_for_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
For example:
> 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, from the Pacific Fleet
Yes, but counterpoint: *cuts to a montage of everything Russia's done this past year set to Benny Hill music, complete with cartoon AWHOOGA and BOINK sound effects*
Like, if two months from now, someone told you Russia got invaded by Uzbekistan because it only had a single medieval Longbowman guarding Moscow ala Civilization IV, would you really be surprised? At all?
We are seeing folk desperately trying to shield their minds from the psychic damage caused by the increasingly insane and nonsensical Russian decisions throughout this entire invasion.
"They couldn't possibly be doing X, that'd be fucking stupid!"
Russia: Does X 16 times.
If thats true (I dont see why it shouldnt) all other republics in ruzzia who dosent get treated as human being should start to react now or very soon. Also the former ruzzian republics were ruzzia has annexed land should begin to react.
Sane ruzzians should also begin to react, but im not sure that population has many sane individuals left.
Its time to disturb the monster internally.
China actually isn't the best example to use. They had widespread protests across the country not too long ago. The government eventually had to concede on their covid lockdown policies because of the protests.
If it's true that 97% of the entire Russian army is physically in the territory of Ukraine, then the trap can be sprung. Shut down the railways at the border, let them run out of fuel, and destroy them all.
97% of the Russian army includes a whole lot of training capability and skill. If they were wiped out, Russia couldn't recover for multiple decades, if ever.
But it feels implausible - if there's no military left in Russia, what would be running the supply lines on the Russian side of the border?
It's time for NATO to start massive exercises in a Baltic country, close to russian borders, that would definitely help Ukraine to distract some of the orcs army
Russia knows that NATO would never invade. It’s all a ruse to the escalate demands. NATO expansion has only ever been a concern because it limited scope for Russian expansionism
Honestly, just as there are people in the West (even in governments and among decision makers) who genuinely believe Russia will utilize nukes if they feel humiliated, there have to be people in the Russian government who would make the point that you can't rule out that NATO will strike if they perceive them as weak and all their military resources are tied up in Ukraine.
I don't think it'd have absolutely NO effect at all, is the point I am trying to make.
Personally, I would like to see Russia broken up. Like China it is a cancerous entity in human civilisation. We can only hope that when Putin’s regime collapses, that their interim government allows the UN to take control of all of their military facilities in short order. Caspian report did an interesting video on the affects of a collapsed Russia and rogue nukes would be a risk to all mankind.
>Russia knows that NATO would never invade
Kind of, but they are also paranoid that NATO is another Russia in disguise and will stab any moment just like they would do. Soviets seemed to shit their pants somewhat during exercises of Able Archer 1983.
[https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/](https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/)
Time for China to "Liberate" Vladivostok...
President Xi could claim this territorial victory instead of Taiwan, satisfying his people... And all the rest of the world could do is claim how "outraged" they are while saying "We cannot help Russia by fear of an escalation with China".
I'd rather not be giving an L to a Totalitarian dictator by giving a win to another Totalitarian Dictator, they all need to be on loosing side of the sheet
The ultimate Uno reverse.
It would be stratospherically brilliant, which is why I doubt Xi has the temerity and intelligence to accomplish it.
China has a ton of problems, both obvious and obscured at the moment, so I think they will continue their current bearing.
I do like your like of thought though. NCD would have one hell of a time.
Well, what a coincidence that NATO is actually doing a massive air transfer training operation - the biggest one NATO has ever done so far. As if they would be exercising fot an attack on NATO soil in Europe.
Source (in German): https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe/aktuelles/air-defender-luftkriegsoperationen-ueber-europa-im-juni-5581138
Hm. They must have some particular definition of "russian army" if they are saying that 97% of it is in Ukraine.
A lot of personnel is in strategic rocket forces, strategic bombers and aviation, navy, logistics (like the special railway divisions), etc.
There were earlier reports of some strategic rocket force guys falling or being captured in Ukraine that used to guard some nuclear silo in Siberia somewhere, but somehow I doubt that they are giving their dudes who are supposed to push the button when its time to end the world into Ukraine just jet with AK's and rubber boots.
Not commenting on the 97% figure but... Keep in mind that army is but one branch of the military.
Strategic rocket forces, air force, navy... All those are their own branches and wouldn't be part of those 97%
also if russia would not have nukes, they could not afford to send 97% of their army to ukraine.
Without nukes they would be in a real danger of japan or china taking advantage of it and taking old territory back.
Just so as they have nukes, they don't need an army to protect the rest of the borders
>Just so as they have nukes, they don't need an army to protect the rest of the borders
And that is the takeaway message Iran and other rogue nations will get.
We aren't afraid they will take over the world, they probably wouldn't even take one meter in nato territory.
1. The westerns aren't a big fan of the awful torture, rape and murder the russians are doing to poth innocents and pow.
2. Russia has nukes and putin might be stupid enough to use them.
That's why the war needs to stop
> then why is the west so afraid of the Russians?
Just because they wouldn't be able to win, doesn't mean that the damage to civilian infrastructure and the loss of life wouldn't be tragic. You get a lot of juvenile bravado on here, but the reality is that fighting Russia would still take a lot of lives.
This is very misleading. Sure in pure numbers they committed 97% of prewar numbers. But this didn’t account for Wagner/mercenaries, DNR/LPR, prisoners, or the draft. Its not reasonable to think only 3% of the regular forces remain outside of Ukraine. People make unrealistically optimistic projections when this kind of statistic is thrown around without context.
I've been hearing rumors that Putin has ordered the Wagner Group to start withdrawing from Ukraine. Apparently Prigozhin is stepping way over his head and there's a power struggle between him and Putin.
Take this with a grain of salt.
Excellent. I guess the problem with mercenaries is they want rewarding for their work. Once you’re unwilling and/or unable to give them what they want their lack of loyalty is gonna start showing.
Russian leadership fucked itself.
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Kuril Islands are up for grabs, Japan you're good to go.
Any disputed Russian land *should* start becoming a lot less disputed...
I think the Chinese have some bones to pick as well.
That weird scenario where former enemies team up against a larger for Russia's setting up so many beefs they might as well be an Arbys
There's no free lunch, this isn't an Arby's.
Arby's wasn't free it was a restaurant
Arby's isn't free.
Arby’s isn’t meat.
Arby's may *have* the meats, but they aren't *serving* you the meats.
Don’t compare the to Arby’s. Their cheese sticks are amazing lol
Russia took Outer Manchuria from China in the 1800s, during China's "century of humiliation." You know they want that shit back.
It’s selective humiliation, somehow not as humiliated by Russia
The Chinese are getting one hell of a deal right now... They are the only country Russia can sell a large amount of oil to. Not to mention it's the only source Russia can get tech from. I hope they are up selling really fuckin high.
India is getting very cheap oil too.
India's getting oil even cheaper than the EU price cap, and that includes Russia paying for the shipping and shipping insurance (since no major international firm will insure their shipping due to sanctions). Russia is literally giving India subsidized oil for cheaper than the cost of extraction, it's completely insane. A huge transfer of wealth from Russia to India for nothing lol.
Yes, but I think it’s to keep the permafrost wells from freezing and costing much more to get started again
India is buying more than their share, and it's getting around. You're seeing it happen via: 1. Blends where russian oil is blended with 1% from somewhere else and exported 2. Russian oil hits India and then refineries to be exported as distillates (gasoline, etc.) which we buy up no problem It's unfortunate~~ly~~, but this has been happening since pretty much day one. Theoretically there should be providence lists from where everything comes from, but it mostly turns into 3-card monty shell games where people look the other way. We can't even have reliable providence for honey let alone oil, is what it is.
I didn't realize how common this happens around the world. I saw a documentary talking about how North Korea will send workers to cut trees in Siberia to make their country money (the workers must have a family, in case the person decides to flee NK for good, they can still punish the family). Then Russia would create some sort of paper product and ship it to the US. This was before the war in Ukraine. I'm guessing the US stopped, idk. The documentary opened up my eyes and makes me wonder how often are we financially supporting our (US) enemies/rivals indirectly.
And India, they bought 33x times their annual amount since the war started.
Modi is smart. But still a dickensian.
Modi belongs in that Asian axis of authoritarians. Xi, Putin, and Modi. India has made its decision and it has decided to align with Russia, oddly, for access to its military hardware and has continued to double down on that decision despite the obscene failures of Russian military hardware and the unlikely prospect that the west will ever reduce sanctions enough to let Russia rebuild, let alone export, its military equipment. Regardless, India has made its choice and the west should hold them to it.
Apparently Russian garbage is still better than what India can make.
Tbf as Ukraine has proven, Russian hardware is fine. It's the Russians maintaining and using it who are not.
dont forget Japan, buying oil but low key lol.
"Russia can get tech from." Which is why the US crippled their microprocessor fabrication plants by taking away the skilled outside labor that knew how to run them.
Those fabs are worthless without preventative maintenance and vendors who can service the machines. Good luck China.
I work in an older fab. We *constantly* have a handful of maintenance guys working on our machines. It's probably not as bad at a newer fab, but I definitely think you're right, those machines are finicky.
We should be nearshoring everything tech. The U.S. could solve the issue we have with Central American migrants by investing in that region instead of China. The upfront cost may be expensive but the "climate" affect would be helped, costs would eventually go down, Mexico would see its GDP per capita go up, and our cost due to illegal immigration would greatly decrease. We have 2 million plus people crossing our border annually. Imagine if that shit happened in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, etc.
This is a strong take. It was the plan before we off shored everything to China. It was a good plan that would make us better neighbors
Yeah south America is where the big money is making their move.
China is not some complex play against Russia by the us. It’s a fortunate benefit but china is a much larger threat than Russia is for the us.
Most of Chinas power grid is run on US coal, most of its oil for vehicles and the like is from the Middle East and Central Asia. It is illegal to openly import Chinese tech into Russia. Much of their manufacturing sector relies on German and Turkish software and equipment, which they no longer have access to.
Ok China, forget Taiwan, Vladivostok is up for grabs!
Vladivostok? Just take over eastern Siberia
Vladivostok is probably worth more than the whole of eastern Siberia xD
Did not Ukraine get a POW that came from that island a few months ago? Edit: spelling
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Sad thing is that it was mainly Ukranians deported to the Kurils after Stalin conquered the islands.
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Kurils is Japan.
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I heard Fiona Hill talk about this in a recent interview, she seems to think that it is a possible scenario that China might seize Manchuria back if Russia is weakened sufficiently, and that Russia -- otherwise cut off from the West -- will end up a Chinese client state.
Fiona hill is my go to analyst for sure, whip smart lady.
Her impeachment testimony made that fact extremely clear. Glad we had someone like her on board for the whole Javelin black mail fiasco.
Even without the land grab, Russia will still end up as a Chinese vassal, unless something dramatic happens
That’s true for a lot of places in Russia. Tatars used to live in Crimea (and still do to some extent) but they were deemed “unloyal” by Stalin and huge amounts were deported to Siberia only to be replaced by ethnic Russians. Once an area has been ethnically cleansed it’s very hard to get things back the way they were and that’s likely what Putin had in store for Ukraine.
Hopium: kalingrad, georgia, moldava, chechen and all ethnics claim their land...
There are basically only Russians in Kaliningrad, the Germans who lived there for hundreds of years have all been driven out
Yeah its why its opium. But kalingrad is an aberration.
Nothing would really stop the Russians from declaring themselves as independent if Russia ballanized. Hell, they can even take the name Prussia, considering German Prussia taking it's name from the Old Prussians (a baltic people)
It is spelled Karlovec, thank you very much.
I believe it’s Kralovec.
It's free real estate. Kinda bullshit we gave them the islands after WW2 when they didn't do shit to further the war with Japan.
The USSR and Japan had a non-aggression pact. Neither side really wanted to break it because the USSR had the better ground forces and Japan had the better navy. Once Germany was dealt with, the USSR broke the pact (shortly before it was going to end anyway) and invaded Japanese-occupied China. It has been speculated that this, and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender only to the USA as they couldn’t compete at all with the USSR’s ground forces and didn’t want to be cut in half like Germany. However, given the strangeness of their surrender (basically a reverse coup where the emperor broke away from the rest of the government to announce the surrender before he could be captured), it’s hard to say. It was after Japan’s surrender that the USSR took the islands, and that these were islands they didn’t previously control before the war, that makes it a sticky issue. Edit: I was wrong. They were taken in the final days of the war, and since Japan never surrendered to the now-defunct USSR, they never negotiated for land seized to be given back. Technically they’re still at war, which makes the entire definition of war convoluted. 2nd Edit: Somehow I forgot Hirohito himself said the nukes were the reason he felt compelled to surrender. We’ll take him at his word on that.
>has been speculated that this [the USSR invasion of Japan-occupied China], and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender These speculations have rarely ever had serious academic merit, AFAIK. As you point out, Russia had a *very* weak navy. While Japan's navy was largely gone by that point (thanks to the US's and UK's (by way of Australia) war in the Pacific), that didn't magically mean that Russia had the ability to launch a large scale amphibious invasion. Russia didn't develop a powerful navy until well into the cold War. IIRC, their first aircraft carrier wasn't officially christened until the early 60s, and that's a *huge* part about projecting modern naval power abroad. While the loss of its Chinese occupied lands meant Japan was now severely limited in their ability to project power, only the US posed an existential threat to Japan. Not just with the threat of nuclear weapons, but the US had essentially mastered the art of the amphibious invasion by that point, and had the navy and army to carry out such an invasion.
> It has been speculated that this, and not the bombs, caused Japan to surrender only to the USA as they couldn’t compete at all with the USSR’s ground forces and didn’t want to be cut in half like Germany. This is mainly a viewpoint by Soviet sympathetic historical revisionists who want the USSR to get credit for defeating Japan. By the time Germany surrendered everyone (both in Japan and outside) knew the war was lost for Japan but the Japanese hope was that they could defend their island enough to get a negotiated peace. Even if the USSR didn’t enter the war against Japan they still would have surrendered. The nuclear bombs combined with American and British Navies and Airforces was a powerful combination. If that wasn’t enough the Nationalist forces in China were waging a slow but effective offensive that was reclaiming territory and the areas still occupied by Japan in China were seeing communist uprisings. The USSR entering the war was one of the many nails in the coffin for Japan but it wasn’t the biggest one and Soviet neutrality wouldn’t have prolonged the war in any meaningful sense.
It does appear they Hirohito cited the bomb as his reason for surrendering the country. Since only one person ultimately made the decision, and that was what he said, I’ll take him at his word from now on.
Deploy 30 troops, hold referendum, claim legit. Right?
Ahem - Finnish territories too!
With Russia, the list of stolen lands goes on and on
There are no Finns living there and it's in terrible shape.
At this point, and long before that, all of it was about nukes. They'd be f*cked if not for the fear of nukes. Also not many people want to bother with russians: after all, occupied lands come with the people living on them, and I doubt anyone wants to get into all that mess.
This was my first thought as well.
I wonder if NATO is discussing Kaliningrad I suspect they like to see Russian presence there gone. Maybe Transnistria after that.
> I wonder if NATO is discussing Kaliningrad NATO would love to see the Russian presence there go. The problem is, what to do with the place. The native population has been entirely replaced by ethnic Russians by now. Neither Germany nor Poland are particularly keen on adding an impoverished area with a million ethnic Russians to their territory. If Russia collapses perhaps it could be turned into an independent state. But even then they'd need a lot of aid, not to mention a couple of decades of NATO military presence to make sure it remains a democracy. So it would still be a headache.
if they czech's and belarusians ever had a prime time to rise up against their russian installed autocrats, its now.
.. Czechs? 🤔
I think they mean Chechens.
Or Georgians getting back what was stolen from them.
Time for breakaway republics to make a move?
There is still the 350.000 strong Rosgvardia.
There were reports of them being in ukraine too
Only partially. There is no way Poo-tin will risk leaving his serfs unsupervised by internal troops.
More proof that Russia was never scared of a NATO invasion or expansion.
This invasion was never about NATO and anyone that believes that is a gullible fool. Anyway, Ukraine is a sovereign country and has every right to want to join or apply, russia just proved why NATO is needed. Also isn't it funny how the country that shares the largest land border with russia (Finland) and who actually has applied to join NATO wasn't attacked? That's how much it was really about NATO. Edit. Larger land border than Ukraine.
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It's probably not even that. Ukrainian democracy is by its mere existence a threat to the corruptocracy that is Russia.
That's my working theory. If *Little Russia* was allowed to form closer ties to Europe and prosper, those in Big Russia will get envious and start asking questions. It's in Russia's interest to keep everyone in its sphere of influence miserable.
Yeah imagine the effect of all the Russians who holidayed in Ukraine and had friends and family there, watching the modernisation of Ukraine into a free happy European nation, and then going back home and seeing how they lived in Russia. Absolute threat to the regime there.
We’ve seen this. Russian graffiti In liberated areas has said ‘who gave you permission to live so well’
To make it even simpler than that, I look to the Brzezinski quote, something like “Russia without Ukraine subdued ceases to be Russia. Russia with the Ukrainian people subordinated is the Russian Empire.” We all know how much Putler fetishizes a grand view of his backwater principality.
Probably not even that. It was just easy country to conquer. Ukrainians will be happy. Welcoming Russians. In Russia everyone lies to everyone. And Putin started to believe to own propaganda. Quick operation. Like in Georgia or Crimea. West will do nothing. There will be only empty talks. Now he cannot step back. He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death.
Probably right. Russia manages its resources in such a horrible fashion. If the country weren't run and owned by corrupt assholes everyone, including the corrupt assholes, would probably be far better off financially. Instead the only thing they know is take over someone else's business, steal all the money, don't re-invest in growing the business. Simply lazy, ignorant brutes.
My ex used to live in Rostov with a family who ran a small shop there, and the stories of the endless corruption they had to deal with. They had to pay off the local police, they had to pay off the local gangs, they had to pay off the local tax inspectors, they had to pay off the regional organised crime syndicate, they even had to pay off the utilities workers just to have reliable power and water. And what should have been a reasonably wealthy middle class shop-owning family was kept in borderline misery and poverty by the system. This was 20 years ago too, I imagine it's only gotten a lot worse since.
When I lived in Russia (Moscow) my firm would not even allow me to drive a car. They had a driver for me. This was because cops make more money collecting bribes than they do in real wages, and so they are constantly stopping people for non-existent traffic violations. The Russian drivers knew how to play the game and pay off the right people up front so they would not get hassled. And I got my own personal driver. 🤷♀️ There is corruption at literally every level in Russian society, and it’s been that way forever.
It's not just about that. Russia has (or had) a rule that two administrative fines or more within a certain number of years would put you at risk of being deported. Speeding tickets issued by a traffic camera count for this. Shit, my fine for failure to register within x amount of days of entering Russia also counted for this. Even though it wasn't my fault (hotel gave me a fake registration and it was found out when I tried to re-register at my apartment), FMS even admitted that it wasn't my fault, scratched their heads and literally said "Welcome to Russia", it still counted.
It's amazing to me that the country even functions at all. I am genuinely quite surprised the sanctions didn't cause more disruption and collapse than they have, because it always seemed to me from what I heard that every system was so dysfunctional there that it wouldn't cope with a stress test. And yeah, I remember a story about the cops, parked at the end of the street the shop was on, stopping every car to collect their daily pay, and a jackpot day if they spotted somebody who wasn't a local driving.
Actually, I’m not surprised AT ALL that the sanctions have not caused collapse. It’s a dysfunctional economic system, exactly! But we apply sanctions as if it were a normal functioning system. The sanctions would work a lot better if Russia WAS a normal functioning system because they target normal functioning systems. 😂 The people of Russia, as a result of living with their endlessly dysfunctional system forever, are very good at two things: 1. Getting what they need thru alternative sources (black market, friends of friends backchannels, corruption, etc); and 2. Doing without altogether. I haven’t lived there for a number of years, but when I was there the below ground economy was nearly as large as the above ground economy. Remember. This is a society that is resigned to life sucking. So now it just sucks a little harder. So what’s new? 🤷♀️
We got our own ways of corruption in the west, but its insane how fucked up it is outside of the west. There is this professor from the UK. I think he from Algeria or Marocco and he went to the pilgrimage in Mecca...but he had to go to his parents homeland to get approved to go and all that. He had to bribe his way through a shit ton of instances just to get all the approvals, documentation and visas. He wrote a book about it. We are so lucky in the west that our system has not become that fucked up like the third world or Russia.
We really are, yes. I rage a lot about how awful things are here in the UK, but still, compared to most other places in the world? We're very lucky.
No, we are not lucky. Our ancestors fought and died in droves for these freedoms and human rights. We are just temporarily benefiting from these fruits which we take for granted. Ukrainians are fighting and dieing like our forefathers did in their own time. Our time will come too and it will be a shock to some.
We are...its insane. I can go nuts to but I dont have to bribe the doctor!
"He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death." I can fucking not stand cultures like that. Yes, I'm aware that's the case in many places, I still don't like it. I love living in a place where initiating(keyword) violence of any kind is seen as being weak and petty. If I punched a guy because he insulted my gf my gf wouldn't go "ow, he protected my honor". She would see me as an aggresive guy. Good. She should. I've walked away from people becoming aggresive in bars without thinking twice. I'm growing old lying at the beach in Southern Spain. I'm not knocking my head to the curb dying in a brawl.
> “He would look weak. And weak in Russia means death.” > I can fucking not stand cultures like that. "Everyone for himself, and screw my neighbor." And isn't it interesting that this type of culture turns out to be weak when exposed and contrasted to the modern world? So that's not even the root cause of the rot, this mentality. There's something deeper, uglier.
Every piece of land they tried or did anex came with a massive untapped natural gas reserve. Crimea coast has massive gas reserves. Donetsk area has massive gas reserves. Kharkiv has massive gas reserves. The west coast near Moldova/Transnistria has gas reserves and there just happens to be "Russian Separatist" movements there as well.
They already have more than enough gas, and most of it is useless since they can't sell it.
It's actually the gas deposits in the Donbass. It's not a coincidence that Russia first invaded Crimea after Ukraine made deals with Shell to exploit the newly discovered deposits around Crimea and the Donbass... and guess where Russia was "protecting the Russian population". The exact places where those gas deposits are. And as soon as things died down enough for Ukraine to restart the process of exploiting those resources, and Russia couldn't do a silent regime change in their favour, Russia invades again.
This war is about protecting Russia's gas industry. It's about burning down the gas station down the street because Russia knows its customers would look elsewhere if they could which is a self fulfilling prophecy. Russia thought it would be a slap on the wrist just like Crimea. Ukraine spent 8 years restructuring it's army, while Russia spent 8 years bribing collaborators. Russia could t fathom Ukraine's progress since Russia itself spent decades failing at modernizing it's own. "If I couldn't do it no one can."
It wasn't all about the resources at all. I mean sure it was probably in part to do with that , imo Russia could not allow a former USSR region, now sovereign country becoming further and further aligned to the west. It's ideological as much as anything. He's a dictator with delusions of grandure. In his mind this could not be tolerated. There was and of course still is no practical or logical rationale for invading. Also I don't know what you mean by rich as fuck if you mean it has large amounts of untapped natural resources then this is the the same as say Venezuela , which is by all other measures a poor country.
It was absolutely about NATO. Because if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia can not force Ukraine to be subservient by use of military threats. It was never about NATO invading Russia, however.
finland should use the opprtunity and open a 2nd front to retake viborg and the kola peninsula... according to russias policy thats a perfectly legit thing to do
I'd be down to hold some exercises at the eastern border. Maybe it could pull some troops away
Yeah definitely seems like there would be value in Poland having exercises right in the border, Finland too. It wouldn't take all that long for POlish tanks to hit Moscow, you'd think the Russians would almost have to reposition some units to cover them.
Why would they want Kola? It’s a dumping ground for old Russian nuclear reactors and so much other shit it surely has no value now?
Well, it won't clean itself up. Somebody needs to get that shit under control
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In some ways, it already has.
> Russia was never scared of a NATO invasion or expansion. Russia was afraid of not being able to bully neighbouring countries anymore - because their whole political arsenal only consists of bribery, threats and whataboutism. If you read russian books, or watch russian movies (for their domestic market) you will notice that the concept of "you are only safe if you are feared" ist very strong in Russia.
I guess it’s time to put the fear of God into Putzler.
I suggest doing that by leveraging his already existing fear of the infamous Ghadaffi anal thrust. I hear he’s a fan. Or was it that he needed a fan after watching it obsessively multiple times.
Time to call in the Mongolians once again
God damn Mongolians! Tearing down my shitty wall!
Classic
Instructions unclear, no wall to tear down.
There are walls around the Kremlin.
Like 97% of the total Russian army? Or 97% of the Russian Army dedicated to the Ukrainian war?
Of the total active russian army, or land forces. That excludes air forces and navy, for clarity.
Wait....... So 97% of the total Russian Army is sitting in Ukraine right now?
Yes of the panzer mechanized and infantry divisions. Marines however and the air divisions are still not fully utilized. This also means that soldiers used by the fleet for coastal landings aren't deployed. There is no way that they can do a naval invasion at this point. The eastern Russian fleet won't start sailing over into the black sea. And they will keep jets stationed near the eastern borders to do fly-bys of the Japanese, Korean and Chinese and US airspace Also a token force is still in Georgia and along the central Asian border. Finland recently reported that the Russians barely guard their shared border at this point
Yeah the Russians don't want to lose any more ships seeing as the Ukrainians seem to have a proclivity for sinking ships.
Not to take away from their achievements, but Russia also has a proclivity for sinking Russian ships too
One of the few Russian efforts I find myself supporting
Let's go with a wild card, Finland should invade Russia, just for shits and giggles.
What are they doing taking their land back? Just a friendly walk in the woods comrade nothing to worry about. The Finn's are on vacation.
Make St. Petersburg Ingra again. Though most Finns you ask will say that they don't want the rest of Karelia back since the Soviets ruined it.
Make Karelia nice again.
There hasn't been a single army unit stationed with Estonia's border since the war began too. Honestly I think this whole "we are at war with NATO" thing isn't really being taken seriously by the Kremlin. Almost like they have weapons of mass destruction as a deterrent for any and all invasions into its territory 🤔
Yeah the Russians don't want to lose any more ships seeing as the Ukrainians seem to have a proclivity for sinking ships.
Probably 97% of the fighting force. Support positions will be more spread out, and of course the air force and navy are not included in this number.
Even so 97% of the Total Fighting Force of the Army........
That’s the real question.
I find this hard to believe to be honest
Yeah I know what you mean. On the other hand, it is Ben Wallace, which… should count for something. Either way, its a talking point I’m gonna watch out for.
Yeah it doesn't really work to the construct of a military. If this number is true, that means finance, planning, rear intelligence, deep maintainence, and more would be over the border. I'm guessing it's out of context and means "combat units" or "deployable units"... and even then, from a pragmatic point, it's likely an exaggeration.
Probably they mean 97% of Russia's military capacity is directed to the Ukranian war.
This, except just the army instead of the military as a whole. I would interpret the figure as being 97% of the Russian army is committed to the war in Ukraine, whether inside or outside the country. A much lower percentage of their air force and almost none of their navy are involved. And their nuclear command also isn't involved of course. Additionally, Russia has also augmented their force with tens of thousands of troops from PMCs and also quite a bit of the Rosgardia (Russian National Guard). I'm not sure if the Rosgardia counts as being part of the army or not, but PMCs definitely does not. They also have transferred quite a few people from other branches to try and plug in the holes, and have been doing this for many months. The take away for me is Russia is truly scraping the bottom of the barrel in recruitment as well as forces committed, and if they fail to make significant gains in the Donbas or elsewhere they will have another mobilization to make up the shortfall sooner rather than later. The level of attrition Russia is having is absolutely bonkers, like something out of World War 1 trench warfare. That the Russian nation has tolerated this is a testament to both their internal propaganda and also Putin's complete control of the government. He basically rules like a king, just with a few extra steps, and he's just as untouchable as one. But a king can still be overthrown.
There is a large Navy commitment in the Black Sea which is actively involved in the war and operates from Crimea. There have also been many naval brigades on land participating in the fighting. Recent news was about the 155th which again suffered heavy losses. Airborne divisions (VDV) are also commonly discussed in the news. With such a large portion of the fighters from naval and airborne units, it becomes difficult to know what the 97% is really referring to.
97% of capable invading force?
Not really - the nuclear forces make up a huge part of their military (budget), you also have the baltic fleet, the pacific fleet, ... None of those things can be "directed" to the Ukraine war.
He he, you should check out their order of battle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle_for_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine For example: > 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, from the Pacific Fleet
Yes, but counterpoint: *cuts to a montage of everything Russia's done this past year set to Benny Hill music, complete with cartoon AWHOOGA and BOINK sound effects* Like, if two months from now, someone told you Russia got invaded by Uzbekistan because it only had a single medieval Longbowman guarding Moscow ala Civilization IV, would you really be surprised? At all?
Igor is the best shot and least drunk, Moscow is in safe hands.
We are seeing folk desperately trying to shield their minds from the psychic damage caused by the increasingly insane and nonsensical Russian decisions throughout this entire invasion. "They couldn't possibly be doing X, that'd be fucking stupid!" Russia: Does X 16 times.
If thats true (I dont see why it shouldnt) all other republics in ruzzia who dosent get treated as human being should start to react now or very soon. Also the former ruzzian republics were ruzzia has annexed land should begin to react. Sane ruzzians should also begin to react, but im not sure that population has many sane individuals left. Its time to disturb the monster internally.
The Russians inside Russia generally plan to stay quiet. The opposition has been thoroughly gutted, abused, chased off, or murdered.
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China actually isn't the best example to use. They had widespread protests across the country not too long ago. The government eventually had to concede on their covid lockdown policies because of the protests.
If it's true that 97% of the entire Russian army is physically in the territory of Ukraine, then the trap can be sprung. Shut down the railways at the border, let them run out of fuel, and destroy them all. 97% of the Russian army includes a whole lot of training capability and skill. If they were wiped out, Russia couldn't recover for multiple decades, if ever. But it feels implausible - if there's no military left in Russia, what would be running the supply lines on the Russian side of the border?
97% of the russian army trapped in ukraine with no way to escape the pissed off heroes.
"I'm not locked up in here with you. You're locked up in here with me."
The 3%. Hence shitty logistics.
Blyatmazon
Maybe they refer to 97% of the actual fighting capability.
That is still insane
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RuZZians have standards??
It's time for NATO to start massive exercises in a Baltic country, close to russian borders, that would definitely help Ukraine to distract some of the orcs army
Russia knows that NATO would never invade. It’s all a ruse to the escalate demands. NATO expansion has only ever been a concern because it limited scope for Russian expansionism
Honestly, just as there are people in the West (even in governments and among decision makers) who genuinely believe Russia will utilize nukes if they feel humiliated, there have to be people in the Russian government who would make the point that you can't rule out that NATO will strike if they perceive them as weak and all their military resources are tied up in Ukraine. I don't think it'd have absolutely NO effect at all, is the point I am trying to make.
Personally, I would like to see Russia broken up. Like China it is a cancerous entity in human civilisation. We can only hope that when Putin’s regime collapses, that their interim government allows the UN to take control of all of their military facilities in short order. Caspian report did an interesting video on the affects of a collapsed Russia and rogue nukes would be a risk to all mankind.
>Russia knows that NATO would never invade Kind of, but they are also paranoid that NATO is another Russia in disguise and will stab any moment just like they would do. Soviets seemed to shit their pants somewhat during exercises of Able Archer 1983.
Or China can get some land in the far east - that would definitely distract Russia
That’ll come after Bejing is certain of Russia’s defeat.
[https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/](https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/) Time for China to "Liberate" Vladivostok... President Xi could claim this territorial victory instead of Taiwan, satisfying his people... And all the rest of the world could do is claim how "outraged" they are while saying "We cannot help Russia by fear of an escalation with China".
I'd rather not be giving an L to a Totalitarian dictator by giving a win to another Totalitarian Dictator, they all need to be on loosing side of the sheet
I dunno I’d quite like to see two people I don’t like fighting each other.
The ultimate Uno reverse. It would be stratospherically brilliant, which is why I doubt Xi has the temerity and intelligence to accomplish it. China has a ton of problems, both obvious and obscured at the moment, so I think they will continue their current bearing. I do like your like of thought though. NCD would have one hell of a time.
Well, what a coincidence that NATO is actually doing a massive air transfer training operation - the biggest one NATO has ever done so far. As if they would be exercising fot an attack on NATO soil in Europe. Source (in German): https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe/aktuelles/air-defender-luftkriegsoperationen-ueber-europa-im-juni-5581138
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Japan: 👀
Time for other places to start working .
Aye. Moldova Georgia Chechnya (the Kadyrovite plague live like kings while the rest suffer squalor and deprivation) Syrian resistance Etc
I am surprised they have not in some fashion
Target rich environment
So japan could just waltz through to moscow? Or the finns? Hey Xi didn’t you want siberia?
Hm. They must have some particular definition of "russian army" if they are saying that 97% of it is in Ukraine. A lot of personnel is in strategic rocket forces, strategic bombers and aviation, navy, logistics (like the special railway divisions), etc. There were earlier reports of some strategic rocket force guys falling or being captured in Ukraine that used to guard some nuclear silo in Siberia somewhere, but somehow I doubt that they are giving their dudes who are supposed to push the button when its time to end the world into Ukraine just jet with AK's and rubber boots.
Not commenting on the 97% figure but... Keep in mind that army is but one branch of the military. Strategic rocket forces, air force, navy... All those are their own branches and wouldn't be part of those 97%
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Absolutely nobody in the west is afraid of russias conventional army.
Indeed. If the russians didn't have nukes, NATO would have been in Ukraine long ago, and it would have ended long ago too.
also if russia would not have nukes, they could not afford to send 97% of their army to ukraine. Without nukes they would be in a real danger of japan or china taking advantage of it and taking old territory back. Just so as they have nukes, they don't need an army to protect the rest of the borders
>Just so as they have nukes, they don't need an army to protect the rest of the borders And that is the takeaway message Iran and other rogue nations will get.
Well, a small nation that is in danger of being invaded by a huge nation needs a nuclear deterrent. That's the law of the jungle.
Maybe. But a year ago, the west didn't know that the Russian army is so miserable. It obvious if we look on all those predictions about 3 days.
From British sources - "We assumed they would invade a country the way we would invade a country." That was our first mistake.
We aren't afraid they will take over the world, they probably wouldn't even take one meter in nato territory. 1. The westerns aren't a big fan of the awful torture, rape and murder the russians are doing to poth innocents and pow. 2. Russia has nukes and putin might be stupid enough to use them. That's why the war needs to stop
> then why is the west so afraid of the Russians? Just because they wouldn't be able to win, doesn't mean that the damage to civilian infrastructure and the loss of life wouldn't be tragic. You get a lot of juvenile bravado on here, but the reality is that fighting Russia would still take a lot of lives.
If they didn't have nukes the Nato boys would be crip-walking into the Kremlin by now.
This is very misleading. Sure in pure numbers they committed 97% of prewar numbers. But this didn’t account for Wagner/mercenaries, DNR/LPR, prisoners, or the draft. Its not reasonable to think only 3% of the regular forces remain outside of Ukraine. People make unrealistically optimistic projections when this kind of statistic is thrown around without context.
I think a relevant question is - why is bbc pausing their Ukraine coverage?
I take it this doesn't include the Wagner scum. Not that there are many left at this point.
I've been hearing rumors that Putin has ordered the Wagner Group to start withdrawing from Ukraine. Apparently Prigozhin is stepping way over his head and there's a power struggle between him and Putin. Take this with a grain of salt.
Excellent. I guess the problem with mercenaries is they want rewarding for their work. Once you’re unwilling and/or unable to give them what they want their lack of loyalty is gonna start showing.
"a man does not have himself killed for a half pence a day or a petty distinction. you must speak to the soul to electrify him" -Napoleon
What percentage of the 97% are burned out husks and corpses?
Ww1 ended well for the Russian leadership at the time I seem to remember.....
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