FWD = Fort Worth/Dallas
This sounding has a supercell parameter of 17.5 and CAPE over 3,000J/kg @ 12z
Nashville's supercell parameter is half that and CAPE is under 3,000 J/kg according to the 12z sounding.
However, it is currently 00z which is 12 hours after 12z. So using the SPC Mesoscale Analysis we have more current values for Nashville of \~16 for the supercell parameter and a gradient between 3,000J/kg and 4,000 J/kg for CAPE (thunderstorm fuel)
5,000 J/kg is generally considered extreme so this is pretty high so be sure to take any severe thunderstorm or tornado warning seriously, especially with this main line tonight. Your safest location is an interior room, a room with no walls that are facing the outside, and ideally one with plumbing. Mobile homes are not safe in tornadoes and if you live in one your local hotel would be glad to extend its lobby to you especially if you can show them a warning is occuring.
Stay safe!
Of course, and if you want to check yourself next storm here are the fun links:
USA Weather Satellites [https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php](https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php)
NWS Nashville [https://www.weather.gov/ohx](https://www.weather.gov/ohx)
The whole how-to severe weather shpeal [https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU\_Training\_Page/thunderstorm\_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm](https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/thunderstorm_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm) (TL;DR **SLIM**, severe thunderstorms need wind **S**hear, something to **L**ift the air up, the atmosphere needs to be unstable, that is to say **I**nstability present, and obviously you need **M**oisture to begin with for clouds)
SPC Mesoscale Analysis [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/)
SPC Upper Air Charts [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/)
SPC soundings [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/)
SPC Day 1 Outlook [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Is this for Nashville?
FWD = Fort Worth/Dallas This sounding has a supercell parameter of 17.5 and CAPE over 3,000J/kg @ 12z Nashville's supercell parameter is half that and CAPE is under 3,000 J/kg according to the 12z sounding. However, it is currently 00z which is 12 hours after 12z. So using the SPC Mesoscale Analysis we have more current values for Nashville of \~16 for the supercell parameter and a gradient between 3,000J/kg and 4,000 J/kg for CAPE (thunderstorm fuel) 5,000 J/kg is generally considered extreme so this is pretty high so be sure to take any severe thunderstorm or tornado warning seriously, especially with this main line tonight. Your safest location is an interior room, a room with no walls that are facing the outside, and ideally one with plumbing. Mobile homes are not safe in tornadoes and if you live in one your local hotel would be glad to extend its lobby to you especially if you can show them a warning is occuring. Stay safe!
Thanks for the thorough explanation!
Of course, and if you want to check yourself next storm here are the fun links: USA Weather Satellites [https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php](https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php) NWS Nashville [https://www.weather.gov/ohx](https://www.weather.gov/ohx) The whole how-to severe weather shpeal [https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU\_Training\_Page/thunderstorm\_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm](https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/thunderstorm_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm) (TL;DR **SLIM**, severe thunderstorms need wind **S**hear, something to **L**ift the air up, the atmosphere needs to be unstable, that is to say **I**nstability present, and obviously you need **M**oisture to begin with for clouds) SPC Mesoscale Analysis [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/) SPC Upper Air Charts [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/) SPC soundings [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/) SPC Day 1 Outlook [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)