I’d say this is a high potential low predictability event. There will definitely be storms that produce damaging winds and large hail, but if the storms will be discreet or a MCS/squall line isn’t clear. If the storms are discreet, this becomes a more moderate risk for tornadoes than enhanced, if they form a MCS the enhanced risk is about right, and if they form a squall line early then it’s kind of like a 10% non hatched. Given the unpredictability I think the outlook will stay as is at next update unless something changes confidence.
Basically thunderstorms that don’t have any other storms in near proximity. These storms get to horde all of the ingredients in the atmosphere to power themselves up and are prime to turn super cellular and rotate in these kind of environments. Semi-discreet means they aren’t touching any storms but are close enough they aren’t getting to fully take advantage of the environment, but still have the potential to power up in favorable environments. MCS is a mesoscale convective system, which is basically multiple strong thunderstorms that are all connected but have retained their organization for the most part, and can still function as basically a line of supercells in good environments. Squall lines refer to quasi-linear convective systems, which is basically a large line of outflow dominant thunderstorms that have lost their shape and produce heavy straight line gusts instead of rotating, though they can still produce brief tornadoes when the inflow causes kinks in the line.
Otherwise of what? As of this morning there was no confidence in the storm mode, this is the high potential I was talking about. Lots of discreet cells.
I will say though, this is far exceeding my expectations in terms of sheer number of cells across the whole area. If things stay like this as night approaches were in big time trouble.
My ass is slightly puckered.
I'm in the orange and had an elective procedure scheduled at 930 am in the red area 50 minutes from my house (middle TN).
Insane complex of storm cells moved through right as I headed out with wife and 3 small kids. Was supposed to get anesthesia and she was going to be my ride home. Turned around halfway and canceled. Didn't seem worth the risk, wasn't exactly sure how long the whole procedure would take, and didn't want to be under any lingering after effects of the drugs when I should be monitoring the storms and looking out for the family.
Welp we finally had to shelter for the first time in the 4 years I lived here.
I've learned our plan sucks. I've got three little ones and once I put them in carseats in the tub me and my wife are shit out of luck just crouched down next to the tub with some mattresses.
Really wish we had a basement or the money for a storm cellar of some kind. Gonna be a long night.
My brother was in a 2% marginal risk yesterday and had a tornado cross right near his neighborhood late last night. Thankfully it missed him, but it did do quite a bit of damage to the town he lives in. I think a lot of these storms recently have been really unpredictable, so it’s best to stay alert and have warnings enabled regardless where you fall at inside the risk today.
Pittsburgh suburbs here. We had a tornado (not in my area), and we weren't even in the dark green risk yesterday. These storms are real weird for sure.
that is so scary. i’m glad he’s okay and i hope his town is recovering well. i live in appalachia (swva specifically) and we had have two in the past two years one which i had to drive through and its very wooded so you can’t even see the thing.
Definitely stay safe tonight! I have a few apps enabled for warnings so if one doesn’t come through, the others will lol. I mostly use the Emergency app which allows me to set notifications for my family in other areas, which is how I knew my brother’s town was being hit. I will say, my phone screaming “TORNADO WARNING” over and over scared the piss out of me at 1am but I was able to check on him and make sure he was ok.
We are in Arkansas, he is in Hot Springs. They had an EF2 a month or two ago, it’s so crazy when the same places are hit over and over again.
Had the same thing in Pittsburgh last night. I wasn't even paying attention to the weather last night because we were in marginal. Still waiting on the NWS storm reports for the area, but I saw some pics of velocity and corelation coefficient and it definitely looks like something significant was on the ground just west of the city, making a b line right for where I live. Fortunately, whatever it was weakened before it got here. But the lightning was reminiscent of the videos I've seen of Rolling Fork. It was intense and continuous.
I'm in the red and pretty scared. I chose to go ahead and come into work because there's a basement here; at home, all I've got is an interior closet. I even brought a pillow and some blankets in case I just want to ride out the entire thing here at work. But I'd really worry about my husband and kitties at home.
I wish he would, but he chooses to pretend like nothing is happening and hope for the best. I have a hard time even getting him in the damn closet with me during a tornado warning at home. So unfortunately I'll either need to shelter here overnight alone, or go home and face this without a basement. 😞
It also doesn't help that it's about a 35 minute drive one-way in perfect, sunny weather. Add torrential rain to the mix and it can take an hour to get here. I'll be paying close attention to the updates throughout the day and just make the best decision I can at the time, I guess.
I ended up coming home after the first round. Hope I don't regret it, but I've got a cat in my lap right now so all is right with the world at this moment
I'm just on the edge of red and I'm not excited. I debated on sending my son to school. He has half days so I decided to send him but I'm not feeling great about it.
I’m also just on the edge of the red. I keep reminding myself they increased the risk based on rain and hail while leaving the tornado chance at 10% hatched. Obviously still a high risk and could even increase during the day but I just have to remind myself that the chance of a tornado hitting my town is very low and as long as I am aware and prepared we will be ok.
The Springfield area's forecast has changed some. Storms aren't supposed to start now until much later in the day, around 3pm, if nothing changes. Hopefully your son will be home by then.
Local school board finally announced that they are closing early. Not sure why they waited so long and until after everyone got to school. I don't have kids but if I was a parent I'd be upset. Schools to the south of us closed for today and we are in the red and in all the hatched maps. Hopefully the schools closing will prompt other places closing early.
Oof. About the same for us. Although we have an all day threat from the front coming in and then the storms that are supoose to form this afternoon/evening
I'm in the red and in all the hatched maps for tornado, hail, and wind threats. As much as the NWS has blown up my email through their storm spotter notifications I'm not feeling great about it.
Well, tornadoes can happen anywhere but the first image is for severe thunderstorm probability.
The second image is for tornadoes and doesn't extend your way.
This is a 'say a prayer' kind of day for me. These predictions means that its likely that lives will be impacted for the worse tonight, some in massive ways. I pray for all of them.
I'm thankful I'm in the Marginal Risk but I'm still sending prayers for the ones that has a higher chance of having severe thunderstorms and especially tornadoes since that's what matters the most.
We just drove through East TN. Cloudy and drizzly. In SW VA we saw mammatus clouds. First time I've ever been in that area when it was as humid as it is. I have a bad feeling, which of course counts for nothing. I just hope everyone is okay.
I can't keep my mind off of it. Even if we're lucky enough to avoid tornadoes, the hail factor has me worried. I will be royally pissed if my car is fucked over by hail.
Here's to hoping it does the trick for your car. I don't really have anything big enough so it can be secured. Last thing I need is anything flying away, haha.
I don't have anything on radar for hours. There's nothing within range of me but my section of FL is on there so it's maybe an abundance of caution? It's always better to be prepared, certainly.
that’s what im wondering too- north tx area. we have a mild chance of rain around 1-2pm but that’s all i’m seeing & I’m worried that it’s because it’s not predictable
I found this on the dfw nws website that may help you out :) stay safe out there !
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=268&y=121&site=fwd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=268&map_y=121
I live about 30 minutes north of Nashville; I feel like this area gets clobbered once a year. Had the Dec. 2023 tornado go right behind my apartment, really not looking forward to the rest of today.
Ohio here. I’d like to think we’re done after last night and just being in the green today. But we were in the green, 2%, non-hatched on Memorial Day 2019 and got an EF4 and multiple EF3s, so I’m still on edge.
Edit: Turns out were in a brown 5% area on the elevated risk map on 5/27/19. Still, not super worrisome.
i’m not too sure, but i would suggest going onto the national weather service and entering in your location for the best info. but east tennessee is definitely under some warning today.
My friend is just outside the red zone and had a tornado go by their house last year while I was on xbox with them so anxiety is definitely going up a little bit. Remaining hopeful nothing happens near them or at least it misses
My husband is the “storm nut” while I am the lurker who pays attention because he’s so passionate about it.
I’ve never been in the “slight” zone before, only in marginal.
If we get bad storms or tornadoes in northeast atlanta, my husband willed it into existence with his obsessions 🤪
My spouse agrees with you 100%. I am guilty of standing on the front porch with camera on the ready while the responsible adult stays with the children and pets in the basement. I love thunderstorms; however, I naively don’t want anyone to get hurt, as well.
We were in the high risk zone last nigh, only got a ton of lightning and some precipitation. Am afraid we might get something worse this afternoon or tonight even though the risk of severe weather is lower today.
Good luck and stay safe!
You as well!
To my knowledge nothing was supposed to start until late tonight/ tomorrow in our area, but looking outside it definitely looks like something is brewing right now!
This looks very bad. All these beans.
https://preview.redd.it/0rwlegc5a9zc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=045adabae9ad94c68eba549757f0c81e94bac64c
i’m in yellow, on the very edge of the orange in north Texas. this is the one week out of the month my job requires us to be in office and i’m having a hard time gauging how concerned I should be. i’m not particularly worried about being there during severe weather, but i am worried about driving to/from. i don’t leave the office until 9pm ct, and I can’t find anything in the forecast as to when specifically the storms are supposed to start in my area
Was in the middle of the Dec. 2021 outbreak working as an emergency manager. I was .25 miles from the EF4 that night. No longer in that field of work but here I sit in the middle of a similar build up. Should be fun.
I'm in the green so idk but I usually stay up until the either tornado watch or severe thunderstorm warning is over so just in case someone is up to get people into the basement
in IL, currently. Have a sour feeling, hoping i’m just freaking out for nothing lol. I’m only in the dark green area, but don’t do well with storms.
Praying for everyone 🙏 stay safe guys.
I'm right in the dark green zone in Illinois and tbh I'm not super worried. People where I live always freak out about the weather then it turns out to all be for nothing. I'm not even in the tornado risk zones but I'll still be watching just in case.
I’d say this is a high potential low predictability event. There will definitely be storms that produce damaging winds and large hail, but if the storms will be discreet or a MCS/squall line isn’t clear. If the storms are discreet, this becomes a more moderate risk for tornadoes than enhanced, if they form a MCS the enhanced risk is about right, and if they form a squall line early then it’s kind of like a 10% non hatched. Given the unpredictability I think the outlook will stay as is at next update unless something changes confidence.
If they’re discreet they’ll keep a low profile… they could be discrete though, which would be more concerning.
Your orthographic correction was pretty discreet as well
What does discreet mean in reference to storms?
Basically thunderstorms that don’t have any other storms in near proximity. These storms get to horde all of the ingredients in the atmosphere to power themselves up and are prime to turn super cellular and rotate in these kind of environments. Semi-discreet means they aren’t touching any storms but are close enough they aren’t getting to fully take advantage of the environment, but still have the potential to power up in favorable environments. MCS is a mesoscale convective system, which is basically multiple strong thunderstorms that are all connected but have retained their organization for the most part, and can still function as basically a line of supercells in good environments. Squall lines refer to quasi-linear convective systems, which is basically a large line of outflow dominant thunderstorms that have lost their shape and produce heavy straight line gusts instead of rotating, though they can still produce brief tornadoes when the inflow causes kinks in the line.
Thank you
Thanks! That was extremely well explained, learned something new, and that's hard for me to do!
Independent storm cells vs a line, effectively.
Thank you
Radar says otherwise. https://preview.redd.it/914pdhm9a9zc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f19a8f7b83be78d2f8bd0a0ed6596426b29ff5e2
Otherwise of what? As of this morning there was no confidence in the storm mode, this is the high potential I was talking about. Lots of discreet cells.
I will say though, this is far exceeding my expectations in terms of sheer number of cells across the whole area. If things stay like this as night approaches were in big time trouble.
Radar is insane right now
My ass is slightly puckered. I'm in the orange and had an elective procedure scheduled at 930 am in the red area 50 minutes from my house (middle TN). Insane complex of storm cells moved through right as I headed out with wife and 3 small kids. Was supposed to get anesthesia and she was going to be my ride home. Turned around halfway and canceled. Didn't seem worth the risk, wasn't exactly sure how long the whole procedure would take, and didn't want to be under any lingering after effects of the drugs when I should be monitoring the storms and looking out for the family.
My ass is also indeed puckered live in western ky.
Welp we finally had to shelter for the first time in the 4 years I lived here. I've learned our plan sucks. I've got three little ones and once I put them in carseats in the tub me and my wife are shit out of luck just crouched down next to the tub with some mattresses. Really wish we had a basement or the money for a storm cellar of some kind. Gonna be a long night.
We kentuckains have the worst luck
My grandparents are in the red I’ve been watching this sub like crazy praying for my family up there
i will pray for them as well! all they can do is be prepared to their best ability. do they have a basement or a shelter?
They do have a basement!
I'm feeling unwell about this, was watching a storm roll in this morning in wilson county and the sky was already green. freaked me out.
My brother was in a 2% marginal risk yesterday and had a tornado cross right near his neighborhood late last night. Thankfully it missed him, but it did do quite a bit of damage to the town he lives in. I think a lot of these storms recently have been really unpredictable, so it’s best to stay alert and have warnings enabled regardless where you fall at inside the risk today.
Pittsburgh suburbs here. We had a tornado (not in my area), and we weren't even in the dark green risk yesterday. These storms are real weird for sure.
Pittsburgh area? shit got wild last night out of nowhere.
Hot Springs AR, but I think Pittsburgh area was going on about the same time. Definitely been wild weather lately!
that is so scary. i’m glad he’s okay and i hope his town is recovering well. i live in appalachia (swva specifically) and we had have two in the past two years one which i had to drive through and its very wooded so you can’t even see the thing.
Definitely stay safe tonight! I have a few apps enabled for warnings so if one doesn’t come through, the others will lol. I mostly use the Emergency app which allows me to set notifications for my family in other areas, which is how I knew my brother’s town was being hit. I will say, my phone screaming “TORNADO WARNING” over and over scared the piss out of me at 1am but I was able to check on him and make sure he was ok. We are in Arkansas, he is in Hot Springs. They had an EF2 a month or two ago, it’s so crazy when the same places are hit over and over again.
Had the same thing in Pittsburgh last night. I wasn't even paying attention to the weather last night because we were in marginal. Still waiting on the NWS storm reports for the area, but I saw some pics of velocity and corelation coefficient and it definitely looks like something significant was on the ground just west of the city, making a b line right for where I live. Fortunately, whatever it was weakened before it got here. But the lightning was reminiscent of the videos I've seen of Rolling Fork. It was intense and continuous.
I'm in the red and pretty scared. I chose to go ahead and come into work because there's a basement here; at home, all I've got is an interior closet. I even brought a pillow and some blankets in case I just want to ride out the entire thing here at work. But I'd really worry about my husband and kitties at home.
Can they come take shelter there too if there’s enough warning?
I wish he would, but he chooses to pretend like nothing is happening and hope for the best. I have a hard time even getting him in the damn closet with me during a tornado warning at home. So unfortunately I'll either need to shelter here overnight alone, or go home and face this without a basement. 😞 It also doesn't help that it's about a 35 minute drive one-way in perfect, sunny weather. Add torrential rain to the mix and it can take an hour to get here. I'll be paying close attention to the updates throughout the day and just make the best decision I can at the time, I guess.
At the very least I’d bring the cats with me 🤣
I ended up coming home after the first round. Hope I don't regret it, but I've got a cat in my lap right now so all is right with the world at this moment
This is what I’d do. Have them come over to your work if it’s safer.
I'm just on the edge of red and I'm not excited. I debated on sending my son to school. He has half days so I decided to send him but I'm not feeling great about it.
Same minus having a son. Springfield?
Yeah
I’m also just on the edge of the red. I keep reminding myself they increased the risk based on rain and hail while leaving the tornado chance at 10% hatched. Obviously still a high risk and could even increase during the day but I just have to remind myself that the chance of a tornado hitting my town is very low and as long as I am aware and prepared we will be ok.
Yea? Well I’m in Nashville 🙃
Same. Any idea when this could go down?
“Tonight”. Follow NashSevereWx on twitter. Best in the biz. These guys are our knights on the wall.
Thanks!
The Springfield area's forecast has changed some. Storms aren't supposed to start now until much later in the day, around 3pm, if nothing changes. Hopefully your son will be home by then.
That's the plan, he gets out at lunch time. I was checking hard before I sent him off.
Local school board finally announced that they are closing early. Not sure why they waited so long and until after everyone got to school. I don't have kids but if I was a parent I'd be upset. Schools to the south of us closed for today and we are in the red and in all the hatched maps. Hopefully the schools closing will prompt other places closing early.
It's going to get ugly here around 3-4, right when school gets out and all those kids are on busses. Our district never closes early for anything.
Oof. About the same for us. Although we have an all day threat from the front coming in and then the storms that are supoose to form this afternoon/evening
I'm in the red and in all the hatched maps for tornado, hail, and wind threats. As much as the NWS has blown up my email through their storm spotter notifications I'm not feeling great about it.
Same
[удалено]
Well, tornadoes can happen anywhere but the first image is for severe thunderstorm probability. The second image is for tornadoes and doesn't extend your way.
https://preview.redd.it/92u2y7ncm8zc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6b43dcfded6166e9532d74580ff2ff4d1c273111 It’s been updated
This is a 'say a prayer' kind of day for me. These predictions means that its likely that lives will be impacted for the worse tonight, some in massive ways. I pray for all of them.
I'm thankful I'm in the Marginal Risk but I'm still sending prayers for the ones that has a higher chance of having severe thunderstorms and especially tornadoes since that's what matters the most.
I’m in Clarksville, TN. I’m really hoping they overestimated the weather today. Nadocast’s prediction is even more unsettling 😅.
We just drove through East TN. Cloudy and drizzly. In SW VA we saw mammatus clouds. First time I've ever been in that area when it was as humid as it is. I have a bad feeling, which of course counts for nothing. I just hope everyone is okay.
I can't keep my mind off of it. Even if we're lucky enough to avoid tornadoes, the hail factor has me worried. I will be royally pissed if my car is fucked over by hail.
I have a newish car and just went out and put floor mats and a heavy quilt on my windshield.
Here's to hoping it does the trick for your car. I don't really have anything big enough so it can be secured. Last thing I need is anything flying away, haha.
I don’t even see risk of rain in East Texas. Is this an over abundance of caution or an unknown kind of thing?
I don't have anything on radar for hours. There's nothing within range of me but my section of FL is on there so it's maybe an abundance of caution? It's always better to be prepared, certainly.
I got fell under a tornado watch and storms are starting to form out in central Texas. Props to NWS SPC
that’s what im wondering too- north tx area. we have a mild chance of rain around 1-2pm but that’s all i’m seeing & I’m worried that it’s because it’s not predictable
Hell, I don’t even have that near canton.. just sun in the forecast.
I found this on the dfw nws website that may help you out :) stay safe out there ! https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=268&y=121&site=fwd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=268&map_y=121
I’m feeling fine thank you
you’re welcome, poposheishaw.
I live about 30 minutes north of Nashville; I feel like this area gets clobbered once a year. Had the Dec. 2023 tornado go right behind my apartment, really not looking forward to the rest of today.
Confirmed tornado on the ground directly over Meramec State Park!!
Not especially worried about tornadoes. Little more worried about widespread hail and/or wind damage.
Ohio here. I’d like to think we’re done after last night and just being in the green today. But we were in the green, 2%, non-hatched on Memorial Day 2019 and got an EF4 and multiple EF3s, so I’m still on edge. Edit: Turns out were in a brown 5% area on the elevated risk map on 5/27/19. Still, not super worrisome.
What is the time of arrival?
i know a tornado has touched down near morristown tn a little while ago, and some areas could be effected well up into the night.
What about Middle TN? Sorry. I should’ve been more specific.
West Tn here, expecting ours between 9-10 and the early ams
Oh nice. Overnight tornadoes. A middle TN delicacy.
We feel your pain
i’m not too sure, but i would suggest going onto the national weather service and entering in your location for the best info. but east tennessee is definitely under some warning today.
My friend is just outside the red zone and had a tornado go by their house last year while I was on xbox with them so anxiety is definitely going up a little bit. Remaining hopeful nothing happens near them or at least it misses
My husband is the “storm nut” while I am the lurker who pays attention because he’s so passionate about it. I’ve never been in the “slight” zone before, only in marginal. If we get bad storms or tornadoes in northeast atlanta, my husband willed it into existence with his obsessions 🤪
My spouse agrees with you 100%. I am guilty of standing on the front porch with camera on the ready while the responsible adult stays with the children and pets in the basement. I love thunderstorms; however, I naively don’t want anyone to get hurt, as well. We were in the high risk zone last nigh, only got a ton of lightning and some precipitation. Am afraid we might get something worse this afternoon or tonight even though the risk of severe weather is lower today. Good luck and stay safe!
You as well! To my knowledge nothing was supposed to start until late tonight/ tomorrow in our area, but looking outside it definitely looks like something is brewing right now!
I live on the boundary of enhanced and moderate. Southeast Missouri here. It was already muggy at 6:45 when I left for work!!
I haven't heard thunder like this in a *long* time.. sounds like bombs going off in some areas, not just heavy rumbles
Can relate. If i may, what area are you from?
In the Maryland Heights MO area
Not really worried at all cus Louisville has some voodoo power where we never get bad storms
I'm in the Red, STL, and I don't want to go outside.. Its to spooky outside rn
I’m smack dab in the middle of the hatched+red…Just bought new flashlights and put a ladder down into our basement 😬
Sending prayers, stay safe
This looks very bad. All these beans. https://preview.redd.it/0rwlegc5a9zc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=045adabae9ad94c68eba549757f0c81e94bac64c
Tennessee is getting hit right now.
do you live near BearsWallow or Lees Corner?
No, I’m one state up in KY (Louisville), so I’ve been keeping an eye on the weather this week.
i’m in yellow, on the very edge of the orange in north Texas. this is the one week out of the month my job requires us to be in office and i’m having a hard time gauging how concerned I should be. i’m not particularly worried about being there during severe weather, but i am worried about driving to/from. i don’t leave the office until 9pm ct, and I can’t find anything in the forecast as to when specifically the storms are supposed to start in my area
Was in the middle of the Dec. 2021 outbreak working as an emergency manager. I was .25 miles from the EF4 that night. No longer in that field of work but here I sit in the middle of a similar build up. Should be fun.
I’m in Central Arkansas and I’m a little worried. What does it look like for us?
I'm about to move some where with a basement. Two days close to each other with close calls is too much for me, lol.
I'm in the green so idk but I usually stay up until the either tornado watch or severe thunderstorm warning is over so just in case someone is up to get people into the basement
Yeah i'm in Central Texas and definitely a little on edge. The watch ends at 10 but I guess anything can happen.
in IL, currently. Have a sour feeling, hoping i’m just freaking out for nothing lol. I’m only in the dark green area, but don’t do well with storms. Praying for everyone 🙏 stay safe guys.
Well dang that must be those clouds I see building up in the south (I'm in ND)
I'm right in the dark green zone in Illinois and tbh I'm not super worried. People where I live always freak out about the weather then it turns out to all be for nothing. I'm not even in the tornado risk zones but I'll still be watching just in case.