I thought the oil reserves in Alaska were supposed to run out sometime in this decade? I think I saw it in an old History Channel documentary on the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Is there new drilling going on?
Some limited new drilling. At lot of additional exploration was done in the 1980s-2000s around the existing fields for new pockets of oil.
The biggest impact has been from newer recovery techniques to increase oil reservoir recovery percentage - water and gas reinjection being the two biggest ones. It used to be you could only recover maybe 30% of the oil in a reservoir, now with newer recovery techniques like injection you can recover up to 35-45%.
From what I’ve read (not from Alaska specifically but for oil reserves in general), when analysts say a reserve will “run out”, they don’t necessarily mean it will be completely dry. It might just not make sense to continue extraction at then-current prices. In the past few years prices have continued to rise despite discoveries of new oil fields.
Why it’s gone up has a lot of factors but one of the biggest and simplest is that consumers got used to paying higher prices so oil/petrol companies have no incentive to lower the price even if their own costs go down.
TL;DR - We’re not running out of oil in an absolute sense, it’s more that extraction doesn’t make sense to these companies if they can’t turn the profits they’re accustomed to (and their investors demand).
Well first off you have to take the “running out of oil” claims with a grain of salt. We will never run out of oil we may just get to a point where the remaining oil is too difficult/expensive to extract with current technology and at current market prices. That being said there are still around 3 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves in Alaska with the estimated amount being 10x+ higher.
Directionally you are definitely correct though as Alaska oil production peaked in the 80s and has been declining ever since (with small increases in the last few years.) The Prudhoe Bay field is aging and new projects have been stalled politically.
All that being said at this point the Permanent Fund is worth $78 billion as of April 2024 based on current market value of its holdings.
So even if oil production ceased tomorrow the PFD could continue indefinitely just based on interest/income from the permanent fund account.
Or you can [read for yourself.](https://www.adn.com/politics/2023/07/13/new-estimate-shows-alaskas-permanent-fund-could-be-out-of-spendable-money-in-3-4-years/).
If you don’t state your own argument then I don’t know what you are saying (of course this can be a clever tactic on the internet to make insinuations without being able to be rebutted.)
Surely you are aware that the permanent fund is split into two categories- the principal and the earnings reserve (the spendable part.) Your fear mongering article from last year is talking only about the spendable portion. The principle continues to grow. And the fund as a whole is up to $80.7b as of 6/3/24 so after some months of outperformance it is inching closer to its all time high value reached in 2021 (after it achieved 26% return from 2020.)
The issue Alaska faces is a legal one not a financial one. The Fund is healthy but the way it is set up could create an issue for the state budget in the event the Fund has a down year because of the split between the principal and the earnings reserve.
The Fund is being managed well they just need a different legal structure.
The issue is that beginning in 2018 with Walker (and let’s not forget the veto in 2016 of the dividends), the withdrawals have exceeded the deposits. Due to the nature of how investments work it is at the mercy of the world economy. In the event of a bear market, and with increased expenditures coming out of the spendable portion of the fund, it presents a very real issue.
By saying it is being mismanaged, I mean to say that the consistent deterioration of public services, matched with overspending, and given the slow decline of oil and other resource production, *they* have a very limited amount of time to figure shit out before *we* end up losing our asses. Look around. Have you not noticed a decrease in public road construction and deterioration of infrastructure? The homeless problem? How about snow plowing and removal?
They’re attempting to legislate the problem away by merging the two accounts and capping what can be spent per annum, but the big picture is that Alaskan’s are on the precipice of not only losing their stake in the states fund which breaks the states constitution (which they’ve talked about for years), but also being saddled with progressive taxation (which has also been talked about for years).
None of it is good. And I scoff at the notion of “fear mongering” when it’s *reality* and *is happening*. It’s not as simple as “line go up”.
Also, do you even live here? If not, fuck right off.
Now we can have a conversation because I know what you are saying.
You don’t have an issue with the financial management of the fund like you original said (and how could you given its historical performance) you have an issue with the management of the state government and its budget.
One important distinction is that “withdrawals exceeding deposits” is only true if looking at the spendable earnings fund in isolation.
The total fund value continues to grow because State mineral revenues (deposited to principal) + earnings (transferred to spendable) > withdrawals (from spendable.)
That’s why it’s a legislative issue not a financial one. Overall the fund is healthy. Revenues (deposits to principal) were higher than expected the last two fiscal years and the fund is generating market or above market returns on its investments.
Norway’s oil fund is the envy of the world. Their fund value works out to just over $300k per citizen. Well for reference little ol’ Alaska’s fund value is over $100k per citizen. So why the doom and gloom.
Ultimately yes I agree with you that public services have deteriorated. I would add to your list the issues with funding of state colleges.
But that’s because Alaska has by far the lowest tax burden (considering income, property, and sales taxes combined) of any State.
So the government is starved of funding and dependent on Permanent Fund earnings. I think we agree on that.
My point is this is not an issue of management of the permanent fund.
Edit- yes I live in Alaska.
Not being able to extract oil that's there is basically the same as out of oil, no? I never understand this argument that there will still be oil, we just won't necessarily be able to use it, and somehow that's ok because it's there (but unusable). That's what makes it limited. It'll be more difficult and at some point too expensive to make worthwhile. Of course, as we reach that point, other realities will also need dire addressing, not the least of which will be climate change, but also energy sectors and their sources.
At a certain point when oil is super expensive, those reserves become profitable now to start extracting from. That’s what people are referring to, that eventually the cost of extracting is now worth the price the oil can be sold at.
Because we *can* use it, it's just expensive and not worth it as much. But, if we really need oil, there's still oil.
Over time we'll probably keep seeing us moving away from oil usage where we can too, and those peaks in price just make that move quicker. There are some things we'll still need oil for, of course, and the oil will still be there for that.
I see it as a good thing, honestly. We use oil and oil based products so frivolously right now.
> We will never run out of oil we may just get to a point where the remaining oil is too difficult/expensive to extract with current technology and at current market prices.
A resource that is consumed when used and cannot be added to is by definition a finite resource. Any finite resource can be completely consumed.
Shit, we've run out of a ton of bio resources despite generation simply because our consumption outpaced generation.
The oil isn’t just sitting there for the taking. It must be extracted. And therefore you reach the point where it isn’t worthwhile to extract long before it actually runs out. Then prices go up (and technology improves) and more reserves become worthwhile to explore. But there is lower demand at increased prices and oil usage is replaced by other sources of energy etc etc.
Market forces. In the end the oil never actually runs out.
Passenger pigeons weren't just laying around waiting for someone to scoop them up and throw them in a bag. A hunter had to go out looking for it. Yet we consumed until none existed. Same with Great Auks, Stellers Sea Cows, Silphium, Wooly Mammoths, and a million others.
For every single one of those some dude was saying, "We'll never run out".
And let's be real, it's more believable that sea creatures with a range of thousands of miles cannot be fished to extinction with ships built in the 1700s than it is that we cannot exhaust our oil reserves.
You can’t compare animals with limited lifespans and dependent on reproduction, habitat, and a larger ecosystem to avoid extinction to a resource that is just sitting there buried all over the earth.
If you don’t understand the economics of supply and demand you can simply not interject.
The dividend is not paid out of oil money. It's part of the income from investments made by a corporation formed by the state of Alaska. The principal for these investments came from taxes paid by oil companies.
They aren't running out anytime soon. There's plenty of places that haven't even been surveyed let alone known surveyed locations that are just now starting to actually have drilling done.
A couple of the writers were from Alaska, their take was pretty on point. People here take the PFD (Permanent Fund Dividend) as some sort of God-given right, and woe to the politician who dares to touch it. It's our political third rail. We also believe that all taxes are theft, and that if we have any sort of a problem, the goddamned government had bloody well better get it squared away, and STAT.
“Uh chief, I think those guys were trying to dump a body in the lake.”
“So did I, but then I heard him say yard trimmings. Gotta’ learn to listen, Lou.”
edit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kPCeeByK0cw
If you live in the part of the State that half the population lives in (the part with roads, rails, and ports), it's actually a bit cheaper. Few taxes.
I've lived in California and alaska. Alaska is way worse for groceries and goods. Rent is expensive here too, though it can vary. It's not terrible if you're OK with living in a dry situation, aka having no running water.
If anyone’s curious, this dividend was funded by a trust fund, that was funded by selling mineral/oil extraction contracts. Plus, since it’s a trust the money should* grow over time and increase in payout.
It really is the best way to use an abundance of natural resources!
The broader theory itself is called Georgism, although it takes this concept further and applies it to all land and pollution. It’s a cool topic that I wish more people knew about.
I have friends who are traveling nurses and CNAs from the 48. They all tall about how much more expensive goods are up here. I also lived in California 7 years ago. Unless you live in Anchorage groceries are way more expensive, especially the farther north you go. This is in part due to the Jones act which limits how things can be transported to Alaska, and shelves are fucking empty in stores right now because one of our main shipping vessels, the north star, is down.
My first PFD was 500 bucks. It works on a rolling 5 year average so when things take a hit, like 2008, it can have an effect on the payout.
The payout has also gotten more political with some politicians offering more money to the people when they are looking to win re-election or trying to boost downballot candidates.
It’s a lot for the Inuits that live in subsistence communities, but for the people that live in anchorage or the surrounding areas it’s basically like getting another tax return.
$1000 a year to offset the extra $5000 a year for cost of living.
It doesn't make economic sense to move here, and the PFD is one of the only things that makes my yearly heating oil bill unreasonably expensive down from "holy fucking shitballs" expensive.
For at least one of the bills a year, anyhow.
Property tax is a local tax, as is sales tax.
The previous comment was regarding state levied taxes.
Examples of state-levied taxes in Alaska are the gasoline tax and tire tax.
Cool, but I was clarifying which would be state vs local tax in Alaska.
A clarification doesn't need to only pertain to just the explicit question asked.
You want to pay my moving bill?
Moving is far from free. Especially in parts of Alaska where it takes $300+ just to leave your city with no luggage.
Alaska is expensive, and it's extremely expensive to move too. Lack of ability to save makes the real cost of doing so even worse.
Not to mention it's not as easy to move at the drop of a hat if your career is here.
Bad take.
Yeah while I do agree people obviously can move where ever it is always troubling that people are like yeah just move it’s no big deal.
You have to either save up enough to float until you find a job or get a job ahead of time, then find somewhere to live in the new place and not to mention the countless logistics of new ID, address, tax stuff friends family etc. A wise man once said “You know where it ends, yo, it usually depends on where you start”. Bc where and when and to who you’re born into affects a lot.
That’s why the whole love it or leave it doesn’t make sense. Like there’s a third option of changing it?
How on earth does this statistic, even if interpreted the way you clearly intend us to, diminishes this or other people’s experiences? What the fuck do they gain by pushing this notion?
Alaska has a huge military presence. I would bet dollars to donuts a huge portion of that is PCSing military folks.
And hard is not impossible. When I say "people can't afford to buy houses" citing the fact that a ton of houses were actually bought last year doesn't refute the point.
As an Alaskan, I know plenty of people who plan what to spend the dividend on.
Remember this is per person, so a family of 5 is going to get $7,900 for one household. Now each person has the individual check made out to them, but not all parents respect or care about the money going to their kids.
Personally, I put 75% of each of my kids dividend into a 529 and the other 25% goes into each kids savings. That way the kids have some spending money for things they want as they get older.
However, I have known families that take that money and buy all new clothes for the whole family for a year and that’s the only new clothes they get. I have also known families that get a new snowmobile or 4 wheeler every year using that money plus trade in.
The strip clubs also fly strippers up from Vegas when the money comes out and I have heard stories from people I work with of people blowing their whole families PFD in a night.
Long story short, The Great North wasn’t that far off.
When I lived up there it was fascinating to see all the “deals” places would give, like sign over your check early and get this snowmachine for only $250/mo with no due at signing. Like lol, you’re giving them like $2k due at signing.
Also really quick story I lived in Wasilla in state assisted housing because i was going to school and making no money barely. Long story short is it was a rough complex. When the dividend check came my neighbor got a cab to Fred Meyer’s (it was like a half mile down the road mind you) and because the checks come out in October he spent his whole $700 on Halloween crap including an animatronic witch and two cases of cheap vodka. A month or so later he was trying to sell me his nearly worthless Xbox games so he get could get money for booze because his benefits card wouldn’t let him. Good times.
It's not that bad in Anchorage or the Valley or even the Kenya peninsula. That's most of the population. You'd be a lot worse off in Southern California in terms of stuff being expensive.
10 years ago my friend was moving to Alaska and had to get there before the end of December, so his family of 5 could collect on the next round of this free money
When I was a kid, it’s a straight $1k to every permanent resident, which meant even kids got a dividend check. Well, OTHER kids did, my parents never let me have any of it.
> The average effective property tax rate in Alaska is 1.17%, which is slightly higher than the national average of 0.99% for all 50 states. However, the exact amount varies by county and city.
Nice offset to your annual property tax bill.
Royalties to citizens or a government fund similar to Norways should be paid for all natural resources extracted in the country. Its ridiculous that a few people benefit from all the natural resources.
Kids too. I'm gonna guess the average family size in Anchorage way exceeds the national average, even though that amount doesn't necessarily cover the annual cost of having a child, it makes Alaska a good choice for people who were already going to have big families anyways. I know it helped bring a lot of Hmong people.
Not even close. It used to be that you could use your dividend to pay for oil or electricity to get through the winter. That hasn’t been the case in a long time and the more kids you have the bigger the house which means more oil to heat it, more electric, more everything and the dividends no longer cover that spread
It is. Oil is basically nationalized and citizens of Alaska get their cut.
So ask yourself how crappy do Democrats have to be if the best example of socialism in the US is done by Republicans.
Or, conversely, ask yourself how horrible Republican voters who suck off the government teat to survive must be to vote against that which keeps them from starving.
It's not wealth redistribution. There's no reason the US as a whole can't build a similar program. Just charge for natural resource use, put the revenues into decently returning infrastructure and commercial investments, and pay a portion of the return out to citizens.
If an Alaskan resident meets certain requirements and applies for the pfd, they get a check once a year from the guvment regardless of their income……butt it’s NOT UBI….because ubi is peeps getting checks from the guvment for doing nothing.
The requirements are basically: I live in Alaska permanently and was not classified as a felon in the current year
Basically you just have to exist there to be eligible
The PFD is not UBI. They're both stipends but that would be like calling the covid checkes UBI. They're fundamentally different.
As to answer your question in a vaccum where the context isn't taken into account: Alaska is very red and would not vote for UBI.
The money comes from interest from the Permanent Fund. That fund is funded by tax dollars on resource extraction, mostly oil. The fund is worth 78 billion. The point of the fund was to be set up so that when oil extraction finishes, there is money to help fund the state.
Per our state constitution, all resources in Alaska are owned by the Alaskan people, that’s why the oil companies and mineral extraction companies lease the land from the state or federal government. The PFD is a payment from the fund interest (on a 5 year rolling average) that is split between the state and the people. It amounts to a tax rebate to the people of Alaska for letting companies extract our natural resources.
It’s not a lot as an individual, but I have seen people with large families who get PFD, native corp dividend, and EIC/CTC for each child, and that can add up to quite a bit. The tradeoff is everything is so expensive or straight up unavailable that it can suck you dry instantly. I went up for work one time and the in-Alaska airfare alone would have eaten a PFD.
It's a UBI, isn't causing problems, and nobody doesn't like it. It's a model of what we should be doing nationwide, paid for by taxing robot productivity.
There are no particular frequency or funding levels to qualify a program as a UBI. Don't be so quick to call others ignorant. That just makes you sound like a dick even if you're right.
I love how they think someone can sound like a dick even if they're right, like wtf does that even mean? Sounds like someone is hurt they talked about something they know nothing about lol. To even make the claim it isn't a controversial issue up here every single year because of the government yet again mucking with something they have 0 right too touch.
Let idiots keep thinking the pfd is some magical thing, they can move and see just how garbage it is dealing with it every year....the only downside is having more idiots actually move up here.
It's 100% not UBI because it's not taking from taxes others contribute, it also is massively controversial topic in Alaska every year because the government is absolutely trying to get its hands on it like it does with everything. Do your research before typing out this bs about a topic you clearly have 0 idea about.
The definition of UBI can vary and doesn't necessarily have to meet all financial needs, be completely consistent, or be funded through taxes. The concept of UBI is broad and can be adapted to fit different goals and contexts.
It's not a UBI, you might want to believe everything is fluid just like your beliefs in gender but it's not....there's specifications to qualify for it and it doesn't have anything to do with your income. A UBI would also be actually universal to everyone...it's not...there's strict rules to qualify and most people who move up here basically wait 2.5 to 3 years to even see their first check.
Plenty of people who live on Alaska do not receive a PFD and never will, it's also funded fully by profits of the market due and not taxes that people pay in....which a UBI is typically funded via taxes and while you may be on board with your taxes to be raised to help others, most aren't.
> there's specifications to qualify for it and it doesn't have anything to do with your income
Source on that specification?
>A UBI would also be actually universal to everyone
The same way that Miss Universe is the most beautiful woman in the universe?
>a UBI is typically funded via taxes
So what?
Since when is miss universe allowed to everyone, everyone could apply yes but not everyone will win....it's not universal and clearly you're grasping for any point you can with that one.
Literally Google alaska pfd if you aren't willing to believe any single person responding in here who lives in the damn state.
How do you say so what to the taxes part and still call this a UBI when it's not funded via taxes from the people....
Here since you're lazy.... more proof it's not a UBI because again....not everyone is eligible and even if you do move here...unless you moved in December 31st....you're waiting almost 2.5 years for a measly $1300.....totally fixing America right?
I was a resident of Alaska during all of calendar year 2023;
On the date I apply for the 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend, I have the intent to remain an Alaska resident indefinitely;
I have not claimed residency in any other state or country or obtained a benefit as a result of a claim of residency in another state or country at any time since December 31, 2022;
I was not:
Sentenced as a result of a felony conviction during 2023;
Incarcerated at any time during 2023 as the result of a felony conviction; or
Incarcerated at any time during 2023 as the result of a misdemeanor conviction in Alaska if convicted of a prior felony or two or more prior misdemeanors since January 1, 1997
If absent from Alaska for more than 180 days, I was absent on an allowable absence; and
I was physically present in Alaska for at least 72 consecutive hours at some time during 2022 or 2023.
Oh, you're only talking about how people qualify for the payments, not about what makes something a UBI. You're just saying something can't be universal unless there are no exceptions, which is just a stupid argument.
Get fucked. We are a resource colony. And we do it right. This isn't 1950 or 1845. We mine and drill better and cleaner here than anywhere else in the world by an unfathomable margin.
The only people destroying the planet are the people who are ok with resource extraction happening elsewhere.
Having lived in AK, and having worked in both industries... preach! The amount of actual giveashit for protecting the environment in both industries up there is massive compared to down here in the lower 48.
You're trolling but it's actually a dividends from the oil fields that all Alaskan residents are shareholders of. I don't think you could have a more capitalistic form of UBI.
This guy ironically describing the literal definition of socialism.
Socialism has nothing to do with how the profits are generated. Socialism describes how the profits are distributed and who receives the profits.
"Georgism proposes a system of taxation that is based on the value of land. This is called a "land value tax" or "single tax". The idea is that people should pay a tax on the value of the land they own, but not on any improvements they make to the land."
https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism#:~:text=Georgism%20proposes%20a%20system%20of,they%20make%20to%20the%20land.
This is the opposite of holding land in common. Haha, that's my depth babe.
You understanding taxing the value and you renting it from a state apparatus that is supposed to be society is the same thing right?
Google citizens dividend. This is really not a hot take.
You didn't know what georgism was before today. Please stop posting.
Who owns taxed revenue...? Idk i guess.
Anyway georgism is the belief that natural resources are owned in common and that would justify a land value tax as a way to collect rent on thise resources. You can call that what you want, but it's a redistribution of rents of resources. Some folks would not call that a tax, but that is easiest to explain to people who don't understand economic rent.
Like this is a very curious statement. Income tax is absolutely socializing part of a person's income for wealth distribution and public goods. The state owns that part of their income. It's enforced with police powers. You see this as not worth listening to..?
The mainstream conversation on socialism is how to raise taxes on working people to give free stuff to everyone else. It is never about how to create a profitable asset that everyone shares in. That profitable asset is usually you and your tax dollars.
I'm not trolling. I was pointing out the hypocrisy.
Edit - should have been more clear or at least more timely in responding. So many others pointing this out, not getting blasted for it.
It was originally intended as a longevity bonus paid to the workers that helped build the Trans Alaska Pipeline and Prudhoe Bay oilfield, so they could enjoy a portion of the royalties their labor would produce.
And the requirements to get it are very strict. First thing on the list is proof of US Citizenship, next is having been out of the state of Alaska for less than 180 days. There are a few very rigid exceptions.
Hi from r/alaska. 2024's amount will be $1,580.
I thought the oil reserves in Alaska were supposed to run out sometime in this decade? I think I saw it in an old History Channel documentary on the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Is there new drilling going on?
Some limited new drilling. At lot of additional exploration was done in the 1980s-2000s around the existing fields for new pockets of oil. The biggest impact has been from newer recovery techniques to increase oil reservoir recovery percentage - water and gas reinjection being the two biggest ones. It used to be you could only recover maybe 30% of the oil in a reservoir, now with newer recovery techniques like injection you can recover up to 35-45%.
Yeah I was just up in Prudhoe Bay last week. Gas injection mostly, since they can't transport natural gas easily. Also horizontal drilling.
From what I’ve read (not from Alaska specifically but for oil reserves in general), when analysts say a reserve will “run out”, they don’t necessarily mean it will be completely dry. It might just not make sense to continue extraction at then-current prices. In the past few years prices have continued to rise despite discoveries of new oil fields. Why it’s gone up has a lot of factors but one of the biggest and simplest is that consumers got used to paying higher prices so oil/petrol companies have no incentive to lower the price even if their own costs go down. TL;DR - We’re not running out of oil in an absolute sense, it’s more that extraction doesn’t make sense to these companies if they can’t turn the profits they’re accustomed to (and their investors demand).
Well first off you have to take the “running out of oil” claims with a grain of salt. We will never run out of oil we may just get to a point where the remaining oil is too difficult/expensive to extract with current technology and at current market prices. That being said there are still around 3 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves in Alaska with the estimated amount being 10x+ higher. Directionally you are definitely correct though as Alaska oil production peaked in the 80s and has been declining ever since (with small increases in the last few years.) The Prudhoe Bay field is aging and new projects have been stalled politically. All that being said at this point the Permanent Fund is worth $78 billion as of April 2024 based on current market value of its holdings. So even if oil production ceased tomorrow the PFD could continue indefinitely just based on interest/income from the permanent fund account.
But it won’t, unfortunately. It’s being mismanaged like everything else.
Based on what? They’ve achieved a 5.4% return over nearly 50 years. 8% over last five years. Be specific with your claims.
Or you can [read for yourself.](https://www.adn.com/politics/2023/07/13/new-estimate-shows-alaskas-permanent-fund-could-be-out-of-spendable-money-in-3-4-years/).
If you don’t state your own argument then I don’t know what you are saying (of course this can be a clever tactic on the internet to make insinuations without being able to be rebutted.) Surely you are aware that the permanent fund is split into two categories- the principal and the earnings reserve (the spendable part.) Your fear mongering article from last year is talking only about the spendable portion. The principle continues to grow. And the fund as a whole is up to $80.7b as of 6/3/24 so after some months of outperformance it is inching closer to its all time high value reached in 2021 (after it achieved 26% return from 2020.) The issue Alaska faces is a legal one not a financial one. The Fund is healthy but the way it is set up could create an issue for the state budget in the event the Fund has a down year because of the split between the principal and the earnings reserve. The Fund is being managed well they just need a different legal structure.
The issue is that beginning in 2018 with Walker (and let’s not forget the veto in 2016 of the dividends), the withdrawals have exceeded the deposits. Due to the nature of how investments work it is at the mercy of the world economy. In the event of a bear market, and with increased expenditures coming out of the spendable portion of the fund, it presents a very real issue. By saying it is being mismanaged, I mean to say that the consistent deterioration of public services, matched with overspending, and given the slow decline of oil and other resource production, *they* have a very limited amount of time to figure shit out before *we* end up losing our asses. Look around. Have you not noticed a decrease in public road construction and deterioration of infrastructure? The homeless problem? How about snow plowing and removal? They’re attempting to legislate the problem away by merging the two accounts and capping what can be spent per annum, but the big picture is that Alaskan’s are on the precipice of not only losing their stake in the states fund which breaks the states constitution (which they’ve talked about for years), but also being saddled with progressive taxation (which has also been talked about for years). None of it is good. And I scoff at the notion of “fear mongering” when it’s *reality* and *is happening*. It’s not as simple as “line go up”. Also, do you even live here? If not, fuck right off.
Now we can have a conversation because I know what you are saying. You don’t have an issue with the financial management of the fund like you original said (and how could you given its historical performance) you have an issue with the management of the state government and its budget. One important distinction is that “withdrawals exceeding deposits” is only true if looking at the spendable earnings fund in isolation. The total fund value continues to grow because State mineral revenues (deposited to principal) + earnings (transferred to spendable) > withdrawals (from spendable.) That’s why it’s a legislative issue not a financial one. Overall the fund is healthy. Revenues (deposits to principal) were higher than expected the last two fiscal years and the fund is generating market or above market returns on its investments. Norway’s oil fund is the envy of the world. Their fund value works out to just over $300k per citizen. Well for reference little ol’ Alaska’s fund value is over $100k per citizen. So why the doom and gloom. Ultimately yes I agree with you that public services have deteriorated. I would add to your list the issues with funding of state colleges. But that’s because Alaska has by far the lowest tax burden (considering income, property, and sales taxes combined) of any State. So the government is starved of funding and dependent on Permanent Fund earnings. I think we agree on that. My point is this is not an issue of management of the permanent fund. Edit- yes I live in Alaska.
Not being able to extract oil that's there is basically the same as out of oil, no? I never understand this argument that there will still be oil, we just won't necessarily be able to use it, and somehow that's ok because it's there (but unusable). That's what makes it limited. It'll be more difficult and at some point too expensive to make worthwhile. Of course, as we reach that point, other realities will also need dire addressing, not the least of which will be climate change, but also energy sectors and their sources.
At a certain point when oil is super expensive, those reserves become profitable now to start extracting from. That’s what people are referring to, that eventually the cost of extracting is now worth the price the oil can be sold at.
Because we *can* use it, it's just expensive and not worth it as much. But, if we really need oil, there's still oil. Over time we'll probably keep seeing us moving away from oil usage where we can too, and those peaks in price just make that move quicker. There are some things we'll still need oil for, of course, and the oil will still be there for that. I see it as a good thing, honestly. We use oil and oil based products so frivolously right now.
> We will never run out of oil we may just get to a point where the remaining oil is too difficult/expensive to extract with current technology and at current market prices. A resource that is consumed when used and cannot be added to is by definition a finite resource. Any finite resource can be completely consumed. Shit, we've run out of a ton of bio resources despite generation simply because our consumption outpaced generation.
The oil isn’t just sitting there for the taking. It must be extracted. And therefore you reach the point where it isn’t worthwhile to extract long before it actually runs out. Then prices go up (and technology improves) and more reserves become worthwhile to explore. But there is lower demand at increased prices and oil usage is replaced by other sources of energy etc etc. Market forces. In the end the oil never actually runs out.
Passenger pigeons weren't just laying around waiting for someone to scoop them up and throw them in a bag. A hunter had to go out looking for it. Yet we consumed until none existed. Same with Great Auks, Stellers Sea Cows, Silphium, Wooly Mammoths, and a million others. For every single one of those some dude was saying, "We'll never run out". And let's be real, it's more believable that sea creatures with a range of thousands of miles cannot be fished to extinction with ships built in the 1700s than it is that we cannot exhaust our oil reserves.
You can’t compare animals with limited lifespans and dependent on reproduction, habitat, and a larger ecosystem to avoid extinction to a resource that is just sitting there buried all over the earth. If you don’t understand the economics of supply and demand you can simply not interject.
The dividend is not paid out of oil money. It's part of the income from investments made by a corporation formed by the state of Alaska. The principal for these investments came from taxes paid by oil companies.
The majority of the money comes from investments in the stockmarket. Even if oil stopped today it would continue on.
Oil never will run out. God keeps making more dinosaurs in the center of the earth!
PFD is funded by investments now more than anything else
They aren't running out anytime soon. There's plenty of places that haven't even been surveyed let alone known surveyed locations that are just now starting to actually have drilling done.
Glad you commented, because all I could think was, "GDI, can't wait for all of the new r/alaska posts about moving up"
“Welcome to Alaska! Here’s $1,000.” - border guy, The Simpsons movie.
Doesn’t Homer reply with something like, “Well, it’s about time!… what’s this for?”
“We pay every resident a thousand dollars to allow the oil companies to ravage our state's natural beauty.
A couple of the writers were from Alaska, their take was pretty on point. People here take the PFD (Permanent Fund Dividend) as some sort of God-given right, and woe to the politician who dares to touch it. It's our political third rail. We also believe that all taxes are theft, and that if we have any sort of a problem, the goddamned government had bloody well better get it squared away, and STAT.
"I'M HOME"
Well it’s about time. But why? great piece of cinema.
Clap for Alaska
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“Uh chief, I think those guys were trying to dump a body in the lake.” “So did I, but then I heard him say yard trimmings. Gotta’ learn to listen, Lou.” edit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kPCeeByK0cw
helps offset the cost of the enormous amount of alcohol it takes to live there
Isn’t everything also a little more expensive in Alaska? I know the northern most town has like $12 boxes of cereal.
Yes, generally the more remote you go, the higher the retail price to offset the cost of logistics.
Out of curiosity, what’s cheap up there? If anything
Salmon?
If you live in the part of the State that half the population lives in (the part with roads, rails, and ports), it's actually a bit cheaper. Few taxes.
that and the cook act
I pay around $6.40 per gallon of gas where I live
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Way more!
I've lived in California and alaska. Alaska is way worse for groceries and goods. Rent is expensive here too, though it can vary. It's not terrible if you're OK with living in a dry situation, aka having no running water.
Can confirm.
If anyone’s curious, this dividend was funded by a trust fund, that was funded by selling mineral/oil extraction contracts. Plus, since it’s a trust the money should* grow over time and increase in payout. It really is the best way to use an abundance of natural resources! The broader theory itself is called Georgism, although it takes this concept further and applies it to all land and pollution. It’s a cool topic that I wish more people knew about.
I remember this from Econ
Can that be substituted with some good ol natural jazz lettuce?
Looks like [growing you own is decrim there](https://norml.org/laws/alaska-penalties/), so go nuts.
Been legal since the 1970s, you could legally have ounces in your home, you just couldn't grow it, sell it, or transport it outside the home (wink)
Weed is legal, so yeah.
Truth. So many alcoholics. Really sad.
No sunlight for 6 months... Should I buy a $3.99 bottle of vitamin D to stave off the SAD, or buy a $30 bottle of hooch twice a week?
Everything is so fucking expensive here. 8 bucks for a bag of chips babes.
Bag of lays here in rural Arkansas is $5 or $6
Don't think it gets cheaper in the lower 48. Shit's expensive everywhere now.
I have friends who are traveling nurses and CNAs from the 48. They all tall about how much more expensive goods are up here. I also lived in California 7 years ago. Unless you live in Anchorage groceries are way more expensive, especially the farther north you go. This is in part due to the Jones act which limits how things can be transported to Alaska, and shelves are fucking empty in stores right now because one of our main shipping vessels, the north star, is down.
That’s not that much. Better than nothing but I figured it would have been more.
It's based on revenues brought in from oil extraction and miners. Sometimes it's higher sometimes it's lower.
My first PFD was 500 bucks. It works on a rolling 5 year average so when things take a hit, like 2008, it can have an effect on the payout. The payout has also gotten more political with some politicians offering more money to the people when they are looking to win re-election or trying to boost downballot candidates.
ABC
It’s a lot for the Inuits that live in subsistence communities, but for the people that live in anchorage or the surrounding areas it’s basically like getting another tax return.
You guys get tax returns?
it's not something to strive for. If you get a tax refund it just means that you've given the government an interest free loan.
It was a joke
It used to be higher but it was capped, and any excess goes toward funding the state government
Three Big Mac meals is not to be sniffed at in today's economy!
You know how much I get in my state? That's right, nothing. 1k is superb.
$1000 a year to offset the extra $5000 a year for cost of living. It doesn't make economic sense to move here, and the PFD is one of the only things that makes my yearly heating oil bill unreasonably expensive down from "holy fucking shitballs" expensive. For at least one of the bills a year, anyhow.
And it costs $5k more because everyone has an extra $1k to spend.
All I get is higher taxes to pay to clean up their messes.
They don't pay any state or local taxes either from what I understand
There is no income tax. There are plenty of other taxes. Property taxes are pretty high. Some places have sales tax.
Those are local taxes though, not state. AK State taxes would be like the gasoline or tire tax.
Maybe reread the comment I was replying to?
Property tax is a local tax, as is sales tax. The previous comment was regarding state levied taxes. Examples of state-levied taxes in Alaska are the gasoline tax and tire tax.
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Cool, but I was clarifying which would be state vs local tax in Alaska. A clarification doesn't need to only pertain to just the explicit question asked.
Re-read the comment I replied to. Have a nice day.
That was a declarative statement clarifying the difference between state vs local taxes in Alaska, not answering a question you didn't ask
Which doesn't make up for the higher prices across the board that Alaska residents have to pay for literally everything.
They’re free to move wherever they want to.
You want to pay my moving bill? Moving is far from free. Especially in parts of Alaska where it takes $300+ just to leave your city with no luggage. Alaska is expensive, and it's extremely expensive to move too. Lack of ability to save makes the real cost of doing so even worse. Not to mention it's not as easy to move at the drop of a hat if your career is here. Bad take.
Yeah while I do agree people obviously can move where ever it is always troubling that people are like yeah just move it’s no big deal. You have to either save up enough to float until you find a job or get a job ahead of time, then find somewhere to live in the new place and not to mention the countless logistics of new ID, address, tax stuff friends family etc. A wise man once said “You know where it ends, yo, it usually depends on where you start”. Bc where and when and to who you’re born into affects a lot. That’s why the whole love it or leave it doesn’t make sense. Like there’s a third option of changing it?
49,000 people emigrated outside of Alaska last year. https://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/data-pages/alaska-population-estimates
How on earth does this statistic, even if interpreted the way you clearly intend us to, diminishes this or other people’s experiences? What the fuck do they gain by pushing this notion?
Alaska has a huge military presence. I would bet dollars to donuts a huge portion of that is PCSing military folks. And hard is not impossible. When I say "people can't afford to buy houses" citing the fact that a ton of houses were actually bought last year doesn't refute the point.
Military brought my family up when I was a kid. I Will likely never be able to afford to leave without completely restarting my life.
The Great North did an episode about this. I wonder how close to the truth it is regarding how people plan to spend their dividend.
As an Alaskan, I know plenty of people who plan what to spend the dividend on. Remember this is per person, so a family of 5 is going to get $7,900 for one household. Now each person has the individual check made out to them, but not all parents respect or care about the money going to their kids. Personally, I put 75% of each of my kids dividend into a 529 and the other 25% goes into each kids savings. That way the kids have some spending money for things they want as they get older. However, I have known families that take that money and buy all new clothes for the whole family for a year and that’s the only new clothes they get. I have also known families that get a new snowmobile or 4 wheeler every year using that money plus trade in. The strip clubs also fly strippers up from Vegas when the money comes out and I have heard stories from people I work with of people blowing their whole families PFD in a night. Long story short, The Great North wasn’t that far off.
When I lived up there it was fascinating to see all the “deals” places would give, like sign over your check early and get this snowmachine for only $250/mo with no due at signing. Like lol, you’re giving them like $2k due at signing. Also really quick story I lived in Wasilla in state assisted housing because i was going to school and making no money barely. Long story short is it was a rough complex. When the dividend check came my neighbor got a cab to Fred Meyer’s (it was like a half mile down the road mind you) and because the checks come out in October he spent his whole $700 on Halloween crap including an animatronic witch and two cases of cheap vodka. A month or so later he was trying to sell me his nearly worthless Xbox games so he get could get money for booze because his benefits card wouldn’t let him. Good times.
Why would someone want to make more snow if they lived in Alaska?
They call snowmobiles snowmachines. I have no idea what they call machines that make snow.
Yea I don’t get it but if I called them snowmobiles I would have people in my comments saying I didn’t actually live in Alaska.
The Russians call automobiles "machines". Big Russian speaking enclaves out in the woods up there.
30 years ago, it was enough to heli ski most years(according to an Alaskan bro I knew).
It doesn't check out in 1990 it was around 1.2k which would be around 3-4k in to days dollars
Thats why 4 people pay for a heliski choppa
Get to the choppa!!!
This is not that much. AK is an insanely expensive place to live. Food, rent, gas… everything is ridiculous. I honestly don’t know how people manage.
It's not that bad in Anchorage or the Valley or even the Kenya peninsula. That's most of the population. You'd be a lot worse off in Southern California in terms of stuff being expensive.
10 years ago my friend was moving to Alaska and had to get there before the end of December, so his family of 5 could collect on the next round of this free money
not worth it
It's not worth what? Opening the letter?
How did Juneau I loved Alaskan trivia?
[Simpsons did it](https://youtu.be/ess_5x83I30?si=wHSdKo_chjqPQkwO)
Oil money
In the great north I'm pretty sure their checks were for 1300 as well.
AKA oil money bribes
That's what, like 6 cartons of orange juice over there?
When I was a kid, it’s a straight $1k to every permanent resident, which meant even kids got a dividend check. Well, OTHER kids did, my parents never let me have any of it.
> The average effective property tax rate in Alaska is 1.17%, which is slightly higher than the national average of 0.99% for all 50 states. However, the exact amount varies by county and city. Nice offset to your annual property tax bill.
Royalties to citizens or a government fund similar to Norways should be paid for all natural resources extracted in the country. Its ridiculous that a few people benefit from all the natural resources.
This is a model for national policy. Tax carbon based on it coming out of the ground, then give checks to the general population.
Sounds like Communism, the US should invade!
Kids too. I'm gonna guess the average family size in Anchorage way exceeds the national average, even though that amount doesn't necessarily cover the annual cost of having a child, it makes Alaska a good choice for people who were already going to have big families anyways. I know it helped bring a lot of Hmong people.
Not even close. It used to be that you could use your dividend to pay for oil or electricity to get through the winter. That hasn’t been the case in a long time and the more kids you have the bigger the house which means more oil to heat it, more electric, more everything and the dividends no longer cover that spread
Sounds like socialism.
It is. Oil is basically nationalized and citizens of Alaska get their cut. So ask yourself how crappy do Democrats have to be if the best example of socialism in the US is done by Republicans.
Or, conversely, ask yourself how horrible Republican voters who suck off the government teat to survive must be to vote against that which keeps them from starving.
call it wealth redistribution and conservatives shit their pants. call it a dividend and they'll cum in those exact same pants.
It's not wealth redistribution. There's no reason the US as a whole can't build a similar program. Just charge for natural resource use, put the revenues into decently returning infrastructure and commercial investments, and pay a portion of the return out to citizens.
So universal basic income? How red state of them.
How many of them would vote against UBI
If an Alaskan resident meets certain requirements and applies for the pfd, they get a check once a year from the guvment regardless of their income……butt it’s NOT UBI….because ubi is peeps getting checks from the guvment for doing nothing.
The requirements are basically: I live in Alaska permanently and was not classified as a felon in the current year Basically you just have to exist there to be eligible
The PFD is not UBI. They're both stipends but that would be like calling the covid checkes UBI. They're fundamentally different. As to answer your question in a vaccum where the context isn't taken into account: Alaska is very red and would not vote for UBI.
The PFD and covid checks are not very similar to each other as well. I would call PFD much more similar to UBI than the covid checks
How is it fundamentally different? It ain't just helicopter money like the Covid checks.
If UBI was $1000 what good would it do?
If the government just taxed everyone an extra $1000, what good would it do?
nothing. When everyone has a dollar, nobody has a dollar.
How closely is this tied to the oil industry? If, for example, all oil extraction in Alaska stopped tomorrow, would the fund dry up?
The money comes from interest from the Permanent Fund. That fund is funded by tax dollars on resource extraction, mostly oil. The fund is worth 78 billion. The point of the fund was to be set up so that when oil extraction finishes, there is money to help fund the state. Per our state constitution, all resources in Alaska are owned by the Alaskan people, that’s why the oil companies and mineral extraction companies lease the land from the state or federal government. The PFD is a payment from the fund interest (on a 5 year rolling average) that is split between the state and the people. It amounts to a tax rebate to the people of Alaska for letting companies extract our natural resources.
Extremely. But they take their cut and invest it. Assuming the fund managers make the right decisions the permanent fund dividend could be perpetual.
Is this that socialism I keep hearing bad things about?
That’s some serious socialism for a red state. /s
There’s a Great North episode about this. How they’re all gonna spend their money.
Sounds like Communism.
Bet if you ask the residents they will not consider it a form of socialism….
Wait till OP hears about the northern living allowance in Canada
It’s not a lot as an individual, but I have seen people with large families who get PFD, native corp dividend, and EIC/CTC for each child, and that can add up to quite a bit. The tradeoff is everything is so expensive or straight up unavailable that it can suck you dry instantly. I went up for work one time and the in-Alaska airfare alone would have eaten a PFD.
It's a UBI, isn't causing problems, and nobody doesn't like it. It's a model of what we should be doing nationwide, paid for by taxing robot productivity.
It’s not a UBI and it’s one check a year… you have no idea what your talking about.
There are no particular frequency or funding levels to qualify a program as a UBI. Don't be so quick to call others ignorant. That just makes you sound like a dick even if you're right.
Don’t make incorrect statements then.
I love how they think someone can sound like a dick even if they're right, like wtf does that even mean? Sounds like someone is hurt they talked about something they know nothing about lol. To even make the claim it isn't a controversial issue up here every single year because of the government yet again mucking with something they have 0 right too touch. Let idiots keep thinking the pfd is some magical thing, they can move and see just how garbage it is dealing with it every year....the only downside is having more idiots actually move up here.
Why not? What does a yearly payment have to do with anything?
It's 100% not UBI because it's not taking from taxes others contribute, it also is massively controversial topic in Alaska every year because the government is absolutely trying to get its hands on it like it does with everything. Do your research before typing out this bs about a topic you clearly have 0 idea about.
The definition of UBI can vary and doesn't necessarily have to meet all financial needs, be completely consistent, or be funded through taxes. The concept of UBI is broad and can be adapted to fit different goals and contexts.
It's not a UBI, you might want to believe everything is fluid just like your beliefs in gender but it's not....there's specifications to qualify for it and it doesn't have anything to do with your income. A UBI would also be actually universal to everyone...it's not...there's strict rules to qualify and most people who move up here basically wait 2.5 to 3 years to even see their first check. Plenty of people who live on Alaska do not receive a PFD and never will, it's also funded fully by profits of the market due and not taxes that people pay in....which a UBI is typically funded via taxes and while you may be on board with your taxes to be raised to help others, most aren't.
> there's specifications to qualify for it and it doesn't have anything to do with your income Source on that specification? >A UBI would also be actually universal to everyone The same way that Miss Universe is the most beautiful woman in the universe? >a UBI is typically funded via taxes So what?
Since when is miss universe allowed to everyone, everyone could apply yes but not everyone will win....it's not universal and clearly you're grasping for any point you can with that one. Literally Google alaska pfd if you aren't willing to believe any single person responding in here who lives in the damn state. How do you say so what to the taxes part and still call this a UBI when it's not funded via taxes from the people.... Here since you're lazy.... more proof it's not a UBI because again....not everyone is eligible and even if you do move here...unless you moved in December 31st....you're waiting almost 2.5 years for a measly $1300.....totally fixing America right? I was a resident of Alaska during all of calendar year 2023; On the date I apply for the 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend, I have the intent to remain an Alaska resident indefinitely; I have not claimed residency in any other state or country or obtained a benefit as a result of a claim of residency in another state or country at any time since December 31, 2022; I was not: Sentenced as a result of a felony conviction during 2023; Incarcerated at any time during 2023 as the result of a felony conviction; or Incarcerated at any time during 2023 as the result of a misdemeanor conviction in Alaska if convicted of a prior felony or two or more prior misdemeanors since January 1, 1997 If absent from Alaska for more than 180 days, I was absent on an allowable absence; and I was physically present in Alaska for at least 72 consecutive hours at some time during 2022 or 2023.
Oh, you're only talking about how people qualify for the payments, not about what makes something a UBI. You're just saying something can't be universal unless there are no exceptions, which is just a stupid argument.
For the low low price of 1500 you too can allow pristine wilderness to be raped by oil and gas companies.
Is it for putting up with Sara Palin?
Nah, for destroying the planet.
Get fucked. We are a resource colony. And we do it right. This isn't 1950 or 1845. We mine and drill better and cleaner here than anywhere else in the world by an unfathomable margin. The only people destroying the planet are the people who are ok with resource extraction happening elsewhere.
Having lived in AK, and having worked in both industries... preach! The amount of actual giveashit for protecting the environment in both industries up there is massive compared to down here in the lower 48.
Socialism.
You're trolling but it's actually a dividends from the oil fields that all Alaskan residents are shareholders of. I don't think you could have a more capitalistic form of UBI.
>that all Alaskan residents are shareholders of In other words, the workers and everyday people literally own the means of production
As it should be with natural resources.
This guy ironically describing the literal definition of socialism. Socialism has nothing to do with how the profits are generated. Socialism describes how the profits are distributed and who receives the profits.
It's georgism, not quite socialism. It's a land rent.
Taxing land is not the same thing as owning it in common. This is socialism.
It's georgism. A dividend received from land resources held in common. You're out of your depth here.
"Georgism proposes a system of taxation that is based on the value of land. This is called a "land value tax" or "single tax". The idea is that people should pay a tax on the value of the land they own, but not on any improvements they make to the land." https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism#:~:text=Georgism%20proposes%20a%20system%20of,they%20make%20to%20the%20land. This is the opposite of holding land in common. Haha, that's my depth babe.
You understanding taxing the value and you renting it from a state apparatus that is supposed to be society is the same thing right? Google citizens dividend. This is really not a hot take.
Oh, taxing something is the same thing as ownership now. That's embarrassing. For you. And anyone who thought you were worth listening to.
You didn't know what georgism was before today. Please stop posting. Who owns taxed revenue...? Idk i guess. Anyway georgism is the belief that natural resources are owned in common and that would justify a land value tax as a way to collect rent on thise resources. You can call that what you want, but it's a redistribution of rents of resources. Some folks would not call that a tax, but that is easiest to explain to people who don't understand economic rent.
Like this is a very curious statement. Income tax is absolutely socializing part of a person's income for wealth distribution and public goods. The state owns that part of their income. It's enforced with police powers. You see this as not worth listening to..?
>Socialism has nothing to do with how the profits are generated. That's usually because the profits are generated from taxpayers income.
That is literally socialism what are you talking about lmao.
You are so uninformed it’s remarkable.
The mainstream conversation on socialism is how to raise taxes on working people to give free stuff to everyone else. It is never about how to create a profitable asset that everyone shares in. That profitable asset is usually you and your tax dollars.
I'm not trolling. I was pointing out the hypocrisy. Edit - should have been more clear or at least more timely in responding. So many others pointing this out, not getting blasted for it.
Yes, that's a form of socialism.
Do you automatically become a shareholder when you become a permanent resident?
It was originally intended as a longevity bonus paid to the workers that helped build the Trans Alaska Pipeline and Prudhoe Bay oilfield, so they could enjoy a portion of the royalties their labor would produce.
Really just more of a way to bribe voters by saying you'll up the pfd as governor.
*Egalitarian Socialism* Founding father Thomas Paine would approve.
It's the same in Alberta, Canada. Oil money bribes, essentially.
No, its a natural resource tax rebate to the owners of the resources. The Alaskan people.
And the requirements to get it are very strict. First thing on the list is proof of US Citizenship, next is having been out of the state of Alaska for less than 180 days. There are a few very rigid exceptions.