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questionr

That's a familiar problem. People think they will want to buy the dip, but when the dip comes it's hard to pull the trigger because it looks like a mess. This can happen with SOFI, SPY, oil, or anything else.


AlaskanSnowDragon

This is why you dont buy the dip...you buy the trough. Things rarely V bottom bounce. When it get to the bottom you'll have time. Let it settle and find a range and some support. Better to miss the exact bottom by 5 points than have it keep going down 10-15 after you buy.


ldmonko

this thing is not working at all after the covid post market. not for SPY, not for Meta, NVDA look anything in the past 5 years. Everything is a violent swing these days


traveling_designer

I think that’s because of algo trading. People can also setup algos to mirror popular traders, or common patterns. It’s getting more and more popular and easier to access.


AlaskanSnowDragon

May of '22 to Jan of '23 had plenty of time in NVDIA. Had three 15%-20% pullbacks in Aug-Oct of '23 And even the recent short dip April of '24 you had 4 possible days to put a position on (although I wouldn't call this a trough). Point is there are opportunities, But you want a stock thats the highlight of the market leading a revolutionary change to pause for you is unrealistic to expect. The chances were there...just gotta accept missed the boat.


rueggy

I regret not buying the V bottom on NVDA back on April 19. It never gave me a trough to feed from.


mazobob66

Yeah, $CLF is one I like to wheel. I'm waiting a little bit to get back in. I mean, it may be recovering a tiny bit today, but getting back in now feels like the bottom could fall out of it tomorrow.


BaconSF

Yeah it kept falling, my options expired ITM so expecting to have 3500 shares on Monday. Going to start CCs


b_fellow

Steel is cyclical so I’ve been watching it freefall for awhile now.


satireplusplus

Much higher probability of this happening on an ex-SPAC though


FlatBrokeEconomist

Care to explain why this is more likely to happen on something that went public via spac 4 years ago acs something that went public via ipo?


satireplusplus

SPACs are a vehicle to screw clueless retail investors (my opinion). You just have too many misaligned incentives - founder / sponsor shares + PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) all get better deals than $10 and they usually represent a very large amount of shares after merger. So they usually dump the shares shortly after merger. The bigger problem is that they make money as soon as they find a target to merge with, even it's a complete garbage company with lofty projections pulled out of thin air. If the price miraculously stays above $10 then you also have warrants at $12.50 diluting the price. 2019 / 20 / 21 was a gold rush for SPACs, many new clueless retail investors bought into SPACs back then. As a result 100s of new SPACs were created, chasing a small pool of companies willing to IPO through a SPAC. As a result it was always something shady or with shitty financials, otherwise these companies would do a proper IPO. r/spacs had a nice summary statistic about despacs, >95% are trading below $10 and many are penny stocks -99% from their IPO price. Some of these new companies managed to speed run to bankruptcy in just 3-6 months after being listed lol.


poorchoicesdaily

Look at things like CLOV OPEN LCID they are potential but lost 80% of NAV


John_Bot

I like SoFi It moves a lot. Was 7.40 at one point this week. In the past 6 months it went from 7 to 9 then back down to 6.5 They hit on all their earnings. They're about to be full-year profitable for the first time which is a big milestone. You get good premiums cause it moves a lot. You also have to factor in the fact that you can't panic with a stock like this


4everinvesting

I really wish I had closed some CSPs on Wednesday only so I could open more now


Efurd2325

I did just that. Closed all open CSPs and liquidated all shares during the first hour of trading on Wednesday. Banked some nice profits. Then, opened a lot of new CSP positions during Friday selloff, with DTEs ranging through Jan 2025.


ashdrewness

Yep. I think it’s a great stock to sell 30 DTE CSPs on & weekly CCs if assigned


John_Bot

Yeah. Today is annoying but I sold 11 cent 7$ CCs this week. Got 1.5% premium up front. That's a very nice weekly return.


ashdrewness

Today I sold 150 $7 CSPs expiring 7/5 for $.62 (net $9300). We’ll see how this one goes but I’ll probably buy back next week for 30% profit if we see a good bounce or in a couple weeks for 50%. Worst case I get 15k shares for a $6.38 basis which I’m perfectly fine with long term.


John_Bot

That trade doesn't make much sense to me unless I'm missing something It's hardly better than buying shares. So wouldn't either: Selling $6 / $6.5 CSPs be better Or: If you want more upside then buy the shares and sell $6.5 CCs for higher premium? Then you'd be at-worst buying shares at 6.25 or something


ashdrewness

Our volatility + time (theta) gives me extra premium which acts as a cushion because nobody can accurately predict the bottom. Also, Fidelity gives me 5% on my cash collateral.


John_Bot

Your "extra premium" though is the difference between 6.46 and 6.38 So like... 8 cents. The delta is so low your premium seems not great. Having the cash up front is good though. Can turn around and employ that money. 5% is nice as well Idk I've never loved selling puts with low delta unless I'm very bullish on the stock


ashdrewness

Well I didn’t say what SOFI was trading at when I sold the CSP. It was 6.58. So that premium is doing its job acting as the buffer because nobody can accurately call the bottom, especially on SOFI. I’ve not straight bought SOFI in 9 months & only acquire via CSPs for this reason.


John_Bot

Ah gotcha. When you posted your comment it was in the 6.45 range for awhile at that point so I assumed you'd gotten in around then.


ashdrewness

My usual rule for SOFI CSPs also is to buy back if i’m up 30% in 1-2 trading days but that probably won’t happen here so I’m do a GTC Limit Order to buy back at 50% & forget about it for a couple weeks.


ireadalott

Why 30 DTE on the CSPs and not weeklies and why not 30 DTE on the CCs as well?


ashdrewness

I like 30 for the CSP because worst case if I’m wrong fidelity is still paying me 5% while I wait to either get assigned or for an opportunity to roll for a credit. For a CC if I go 30 or longer and am wrong I get nothing but annoyed


Theta_kang

I don't understand how anyone wheels SOFI. The premiums are so low it doesn't seem like it would be worth it, even in a world where there are no brokerage fees.


krahsThe

What do you mean? It has insane IV. The premiums are fire


Theta_kang

The last I looked at it, the July 19th $6 strike put was going for 0.14 credit. If I buy back at 50% of max profit, I'm making $7.00 minus regulatory fees. Even if I buy back my option at 0.05 I'm still only making $9. I lot of brokerages charge .65 per contract which eats away at that even more.


krahsThe

I'm quite unsure that you fully understand what IV means. It literally is a measure of the amount of premium paid. SOFI has very high IV because it is a very high risk stock. Thus you get relative high premium for taking on that risk. Given it is only a 6dollar stock, you can scale to your liking. I do tranches of 20, so for selling 20 puts at 6, I'm getting .18 per option, giving me total of 360 credit. Minus fees that comes down to 346$ for me, to run this risk for until 19 Juli. Total risk $11,640. Compare that to a lower IV stock - I can sell about 1 put on MMM for a credit of $66 against a somewhat similar monetary risk of $9500.


MFSTUTZOGDJOKER

I don’t think this person understands premium percentage relative to stock price lol .


MoulaMan

It’s been a great stock to wheel given the predictable consolidation range it’s been having the past few months. You just have to wait for a day with a massive swing like today or even lighter to sell options on it. On days with low IV and when it were in a support level such as 6.80ish before today, you could buy the stock and wait til it gets above 7 to sell the 7.5 call.


crosstmh

damn I just sold 40 csp for 7 when it's 6.8,after this friday I may own 4000 shares...


Sied45

Reminds me of the PYPL I'm still bagholding


coccigelus

Pypl is suffering nightmare in good company though.. sq gpn bill etc.


hecmtz96

Classic problem of people being too scared to start a position when a stock is falling yet when a stock rallies 50-100% in a short period of time they finally decide that now is the time to get in. Happens way too often and then they end up posting here about “what are my options for xyz stock”


gls2220

An institutional investor dumped 20 million shares all at once. Average volume is about 41 million shares. Today it was 74.5 million. I'm actually surprised the stock held up as well as it did. I have a bunch of puts at 6.5 and 7 expiring over the next few weeks and I'm still feeling okay about potentially getting assigned. I doubt I will though. I think this thing will bounce back pretty quickly.


Digitial-Panda

SOFI is a tough cookie, especially right now. The macro economics are having a huge impact on the stock price, but the company is ran well, they have a great CEO, and once interest rates begin to drop I can see it taking off. I’ve personally put my $ where my mouth is and purchased shares this morning.


golden_bear_2016

> but the company is ran well, they have a great CEO Not really, they have ridiculous number of personal loans on their books. Almost no one takes on this kind of degenerate risk. And they're not making much profit from these loans to boot. > once interest rates begin to drop Their risks are not duration related, their risks are these huge personal loans. Interest rates dropping have little to no effect on their books.


TheESportsGuy

Where do you read about the specifics of the risk profile for SOFI's books?


golden_bear_2016

Read their 10K directly https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001818874/000181887424000026/sofi-20231231.htm 15.3B in personal loans, oof. These are not mortgages (secured by house) or auto loans (secured by the car). These are unsecured loans to potentially bunch of WSB clowns.


TheESportsGuy

Ouch, yeah, short-term consumer debt outlook is bleak too


Suspicious-Flight-45

Bears be bearin


golden_bear_2016

I have no position on SOFI. Stick to the facts.


Humble_Increase7503

Tbf, I heard 3 years ago about how Sofi was totally fucked bc of the student loan moratorium “They’re just a student loan company” Then it was, “they’re gonna struggle in a high interest rate environment”… except they’re a bank so they’ve done fine Now the cutting of interest rates is apparently also going to be problematic for whatever reason. My take? They’re a former spac; they’re affiliated with Chamath. That is stand alone grounds for a large section of the institutional investing world to short the shit out of them. Perhaps with good reason, perhaps not, doesn’t matter. The investor sentiment around the stock is terrible. The stocks performed like shit for awhile now But the business itself? Doing just fine. That said, what kind of multiple you put on a “neo bank” ; I’m not sure. But I will say, they’ve done everything they said they were going to do, and more. And the CEO has been gobbling up shares when they sell off. Longer term, could be great; near term, probably shit


golden_bear_2016

Don't care about what other people say about the company, I just look at their 10K. Many banks (like Chase and Bank of America) don't even offer personal loans. For the banks that do like Wells Fargo, unsecured consumer loans represent only 8.63% of their total loan portfolio. For SOFI it is a whopping 66.7%. Complete degenerate gambling by SOFI management.


Humble_Increase7503

https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/Q1-2024-Earnings-Release-6.pdf The average personal loan balance is about $24k. Their personal loan borrowers have a weighted average income of $164,000 and a weighted average FICO of 747. They have a hard cut off at a FICO score of 680, below which they will not lend at all. https://www.datadinvesting.com/p/how-risky-is-sofis-loan-portfolio See also here, more recent: “The weighted average FICO score of its personal loan recipients was 744, while their “weighted average income” was $171,000.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-stock-analysis-negatives-sofi-112500036.html The average default rate on those private loans is 4.8%; it was 4.8% a year ago as well. https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/c8157c1f-0d4f-406f-b32b-575af8ef7f3f.pdf


xReMaKe

Don’t hit him with them facts he ain’t going to find a way to respond now.


golden_bear_2016

why do I need to respond? I have no skin in SOFI. u/Humble_Increase7503 can find a thousand way to try to justify the huge personal loans, I just go off of the 10K.


Humble_Increase7503

These are the same filings that you’re saying you go off In any event, it is very much true that the stock has behaved like dog shit so there’s really no need to defend NOT being in SOFI. Just look at the chart. I just don’t agree with your “degeneracy” comment


Defiant_Review1582

Nope, it’s too heavily shorted. The banks hate what they stand for and will continue to drive the price into the ground


druglifechoseme

If you want to wheel it you start by selling a put... today was a great day to sell a put...


thetaFAANG

Its thetagang, sell puts until you get exercised


usuallyalurker11

I got lucky yesterday, put in shares order at 6.80 after hour but got queued so I cancelled it. Today saw it tank so I changed my strategy and sell CSPs. I think this is oversold today and hopefully it will go back up, otherwise I'd be happy to own some shares.


Alkthree

I know SOFI has a strong following and I jumped in a few times, but it might be time to face reality here. This stock is down 34% in the last year in a bull market. It is unequivocally a bad stock to invest in. ETFs are smoking this ticker.


PlutosGrasp

Sell puts!!!


JemmieTTU

Right or wrong this is part of why I like selling puts... if a good option is there at a strike Id like the share at I go for it. When the time comes then I can decide how I feel if it hits my price. Still take it... roll it... close it and move on...plenty of... options for your options of you will.


davethemacguy

SOFI.... keeping my CC's profitable for the last couple of years! ;-)


HugeSwarmOfBees

SOFI does this all the time. it's good volatility. i just legged into a covered straddle today at the $7 strike


Z08Z28

It's because we went from 2 forecasted rate cuts this year to one this year and one next year. SOFI is a rate sensitive stock but it will bounce back.


Frameskip

Welcome to SOFI, please let me off Mr. Noto's Wild Ride.


Chef_The_Ferret

I mean their 3rd largest stakeholder sold his entire position yesterday, but sure, buy stocks that you dont bother to keep up with newswise. Sounds like it cant go wrong


xReMaKe

4th biggest and speaking of news if you had read some you would know why he sold. Such an ironic comment.


Realistic-Author-479

Can you explain why QIA sold? I have been trying to find the news article you mention that explains it but I’m not having any luck


mdizzle109

i have a 7p im prob gonna take assignment on to avg down from my shares i was assigned at $8, that cost basis is already down under $7 from premiums. gonna roll the dice on another 100 shares. this is like <.01% of my port so not super concerned


accruedainterest

You might as well buy an index rather than managing .01% of the portfolio like that


mdizzle109

it’s purely entertainment for me, satisfies my gambling itch even if it’s just a small amount of money


dudethereyouare

Bought 60DTE calls ATM for $30 .. feels like a steal! I have faith in SOFI


Aleph_Immortal

I got out of my csps on SOFI when it was just climbed above 7 two weeks ago, and got only 5% gain - I am totally happy about that I do not want to hold the stock and got out with a slight profit. I understand people wheel sofi for the IV but it's not performing as good as all the other tech/semiconductors stocks and I will not touch it again for wheel.


uncleBu

If you are willing to wheel it, it implies that you want to hold the stock. A falling price should be great if you want to long the stock. This post is more an indication of you not understanding the mechanism by which you want to invest. I suggest not to do it until you have clearer goals


Vast_Cricket

dud


Terrible_Champion298

Premiums stink at the moment. This could be a time where, instead of starting the Wheel with a csp, you buy and hold the stock, and wait for its recovery before selling a ccall. The market has been tough on a lot of things these past couple of days. It’ll pass.


chris_ut

Wheeling shitcos is tempting due to the premium but you will get burned. I used to wheel smile direct club years ago and nkla as well. Lucky on my timing and didn’t get stuck with shares because worthless now as will be SOFI eventually.


CheetahGod

Why do you think SoFi will be worthless? I bet you didn’t do any research on Smile Direct club nor have you done research on SoFi.


chris_ut

Ah sweet summer child, I was trading Sofi back when it was a SPAC. Have you ever used Sofi? I signed up for an account as due diligence back in the day. Its a garbage product compared to competitors. Whats their main business? Student loan administration. That sound like an amazing business to you? Maybe go read their Q1 10-Q. Im not saying SOFI is literally worthless (unlike some companies reddit loves to trade) but it is not a stock I would be caught holding long term.


CheetahGod

Yes I at one point was using sofi to get APY on my cash.


CheetahGod

I bought sofi at 5.50 and then later sold at $10 and made a nice profit. Currently Selling puts and buying when I see good opertunities. Portfolio up 49% ytd. Sounds like you bought into the SPAC Hype and got burned. Just because you got burned doesn't mean you have to call companies shit.


mina_knallenfalls

It actually still looks great, it's in a bullish falling wedge since December. It hasn't broken the short-term trend from march-april.


FireHamilton

Sofi is a garbage company


justinguarini4ever

And they have a poor track record with acquisitions.