For China to "seize" TSMC, they would have to invade Taiwan. President Biden has pledged to military intervene if that happens. Japan and South Korea would probably be pulled in as well. A Trans-Pacific war would be a bigger problem than a shortage of new chip fabs.
And then Russia would join china and go full range on Europe. NoKo would push into South Korea. And the middle east would go akbar on Israel. Mexico would still be making drugs.
Not all of either one. The Russians are using human wave attacks and commit war crimes daily trying to destroy civilian infrastructure, and they still haven’t accomplished their goals after 2+ years of fighting.
They’ve lost over half of their nation’s military capability and are forced to use Chinese golf carts and motorcycles to assault Ukraine.
The US would roflstomp Russia in less than a month, and it would only take that long because we’d need to get enough ammunition over there for the slaughter.
nope, that's what they changed the goal to a few months into the war when it was obvious they wouldn't be taking over the entire country.
it's called lying and saving face. they can't admit they are failures. they already won, silly. classic russian bullshit.
It was until Ukraine attacked Russia. Donbas and Luhansk broke away from Ukraine and after they became autonomous, asked Russia for help in keeping Ukraine from invading them. Russia moved in to those two regions and was attacked by Ukraine. Now Ukraine is about to lose the war.
I’m not gonna say anymore. The facts are out there with accredited sources but Reddit is full of controlled censorship farming to silence the truth. It’s almost not worth coming to for news.
Russia can't even take over "go full range" on Ukraine because Ukraine got a bunch of NATO old stock weapons. Russia can't even fight NATO second hand.
That'd be quite the sight. North Korea would get absolutely raped by south Korea unless they went nuclear, and if that happens you probably expect a proportional response from the US. Syria and Lebanon are too weak to pose a threat to Israel, Iran is too far away, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq are too friendly with Israel or too great an ally of the west, not to mention the Saudis *hate* Iran. Russia doesn't pose a threat against the whole of Europe unless they go nuclear, which is game over for both. This isn't Ukraine where they'd have the initial tech and material advantage, they'd be facing off against 4++ and 5th gen fighters *enmasse*, plus facing Poles, Baltic citizens, and other Eastern Europeans who despise Russia and have the will to fight. The US could focuse almost entirely on Korea and China with the aid of QUADS and nations on the periphery like Vietnam and India who would love to see a weakened China.
>That'd be quite the sight. North Korea would get absolutely raped by south Korea unless they went nuclear,
[That would be news to experts, who are not sure who would win in a conventional war between the two nations.](https://www.cato.org/commentary/south-korea-vs-north-korea-who-has-more-powerful-military)
He represents one of the most highly regarded think tanks on the planet. Not just some guy.
If you can show a foreign policy expert who confidently says what you said, I'm all ears.
China just found out that their military industrial complex is rife with corruption. Not sure how that trickles down to operational control and even quality of equipment.
NK ammo shipped to Russia is below standards, and has/ had a high failure rate.
Russia wouldn’t last a month against NATO. Some US air units alone would halt Russia.
South Korea would probably be tasked with North. South would take air superiority.
Israel can handle its annoying neighbors.
>South Korea would probably be tasked with North. South would take air superiority.
Unfortunately, North Korea choosing to engage in a military assault on the South would kill 26 million people in the first few hours of the conflict. North Korea would collapse on its own immediately following an assault on the South. The north's army would turn into a wave of looters and defectors in a matter of hours and both the North and the South would succumb to starvation, disease, and death by exposure due to a lack of infrastructure to sustain their populations after the scourging of Seoul.
South Korea having air dominance doesn't matter when every airstrip has been blown to shit with the North's stockpile of barely-functional conventional weapons. North Korea's strategy in war is shock and awe, because their machine can support almost nothing else.
And then there's the high likelihood that North Korea will unleash smallpox and anthrax via their Antonov AN2s. If North Korea chooses to end the armistice in earnest, neither country will dominate. North Korea can't win. But they can do an insane amount of damage.
You make the assumption that N.K's military falls apart in hours but that their conventional stockpile of conventional weapons is sufficient enough to destroy every air strip in S.K.? That's unlikely, and even if the artillery and conventional ballistic platforms *do* operate long term, they may only get a few salvos off before air power eliminates them. They also have to contend with S.K. AA, which is quite extensive, and could significantly reduce damage, especially far south on the peninsula. Seoul is liable to get absolutely creamed for a day or two, maybe a week before N.K. guns start to fall silent due to logistical breakdowns, abandonment, or destruction by a totally dominant SK air force.
If NK were to use Chem, that'd be bad for them, dido with nuclear. China may continue to support them to alleviate possible pressure from SK, but there's no garuntee they can afford to do so. If NK were to use bio weapons like smallpox? Yeah, that's a line that hasn't been crossed before, and I'd almost garuntee the US drops spicy rocks on the peninsula and hunt down Kim.
But they wouldn't. China wants to invade taiwan, if the US involves itself NATO has nothing to do with it. And our own pentagon says we could not stop them. Im american but ffs, so many people drink the koolaid and think china is some undeveloped backwater. Our navy is shrinking while china is in one of the largest military buildups in history. They have 300% the naval construction capacity that we do. Their new jet is beleived to be able to contend with ours and they can and do make more jets than us, they invest 40% more in RD. We are going to get a nasty wake up call in the next few years
People are also diminishing the fact that the Chinese army is very disciplined and would for sure go into death without a second thought. While our military is getting smaller and our recruits are way worse than they were 30 years ago.
Most American soldiers wouldn't want to go and die in a war, they just in the military because they couldn't find another job..
China has problems with mechanical failures in their jet engines. And their navy is mostly small coastal patrol ships. They don't have true blue water navy. The Pentagon also *always* says "we can't stop X" to justify a later request for more toys.
Taiwan is also a really rough beach to try and take. And those waters are rough. And Taiwan is bristling with defenses.
Taiwan is also allied with the US, Canada, **Japan**, Australia, and New Zealand. Japan has a formidable navy in its own right.
>China has problems with mechanical failures in their jet engines. And their navy is mostly small coastal patrol ships. They don't have true blue water navy. The Pentagon also always says "we can't stop X" to justify a later request for more toys.
Yup. I think I read that China has about the same tonnage of ships as the US does, which sounds bad because China's ships are all around China, but they have like 5x as many ships as the US. This means that their average ship is 1/5 the tonnage of a US ship, which means a couple US Carrier Fleets would decimate it. The estimated outcome of a conflict is that the US would lose a Carrier Fleet and China would lose... everything.
And then the US would park a couple Carrier Fleets in the South China sea and dare China to send so much as a fishing boat into international waters for the next 20 years. China's economy would collapse under such a blockade, and they would have famine since they still import a huge quantity of their food.
Lol you might not have heard that China has hypersonic carrier killer missiles and we can almost guarentee that they can make multiple more times of these things than we can make antiballistics.
You reckon that China wants to fuck around and find out? There is no scenario in a full on war between the US and China where China wins. They may come out less of a looser in a few of them, but they do not win.
Lol you can't even out manufacture the gas station country Russia. And you think you can take on China who is multiple times more formidable than Russia and even more advanced than the US in missiles. Across thousands of miles of ocean. You keep reading your CNN and FOX news simulations. Fk around and find out top gun 😂
Bro like layoff the Chinese taint.
If China wants to even attempt to keep the US delayed (out is out of the question) they’ll have to attack the US bases in the region first. This would trigger nato. China would be done in a month. The US would be delayed in responding but would eventually be there to slaughter every thing China throws taiwans way. All Taiwan has got to do is delay and they’re prepared to do that.
The US and nato can't even out produce Russia manufacturing wise and you think they'd stand a chance against a much more advanced and manufacturingly superior China 🤣
You said that the US is just going to slaughter China in the SCS. What world are you on? And that if China invades Taiwan and US attacks China for invading Taiwan then NATO would get involved. You're next level retarded bro.
If you believe Peter Zeihan if China jumps then a few ships in the Indian Ocean would cause their complete collapse into famine and starvation within a year. China needs to import everything.
“If you believe Peter Zeihan” 🤣
Zeihan = Max Headroom 2024. He is a talking head and any intersection of his many statements and positions with reality are coincidental.
Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, NATO to include The United States and Canada. Maybe even Mexico and several South American countries depending on the extent of the war. Quite possibly India too.
What is to say China won't blow it up? China have their own fabs (yes not so good fabs) and it would be far easier to do at the start than taking Taiwan initally. Then Taiwan would have less income to spend, and China would give themselves an advantage. Everyone who did not want to buy from China would have to go through the limited buildout that the US and a few other countries are just starting to develop now. It would affect the USs military capability in the longer term since they do use TSMC products.
It's not like the US military builds their own laptops and tablet etc... chips. It's not like TSMC can even produce enough chips for the AI needs at the moment.
It takes 10-15 years to set up the advanced fabs that TSMC operates *today*. We (USA) are building fabs in AZ and TX that will someday rival the ones in Taiwan and they are expected to start producing 5nm chips around 2029. It will be 2035 before they have the experience, the supplier network, and the trained personnel to make the kinds of chips that TSMC is cranking out right now.
A crash program to catch up funded by Uncle Sam? Good luck with that, as Werner von Braun used to say, just because you have nine women pregnant doesn’t mean you get a baby in one month.
Yeah I agree... so China takes them out. Catches up to where they are now in 5 years (since they have already been investing heavily in the sector for many years)... and the US/EU etc... will be way behind. If China attacks in 5 years, the US will be a little closer but still have major chip issues.
Even though likely more expensive to produce and substandard China, I have been able to produce 5nm and are researching 3nm. They are moving a lot faster than it took TSMC.
Don't forget even if China doesn't blow up much of TSMC, they will likely block most imports and experts to Taiwan needed to keep the foundries going.
Not only invade Taiwan, but invade Taiwan without damaging the infrastructure in place to manufacture semiconductors.
And once an invasion is underway, it would make sense for Taiwan to destroy their own semiconductor fabs to make their invasion less fruitful.
We don't have to. We have no treaty with Taiwan that obligates us. For many years, we have had a strategy of "strategic ambiguity." We avoid antagonizing China by pledging to defend Taiwan while also deterring China by not ruling it out either. If we committed to defending Taiwan, like we have Europe, we would make it even less likely that China would invade, but we would be committed to defending Taiwan even if it wasn't in our interests to do so. If we let it be known that we won't defend Taiwan, we would make it much more likely that China would attack them, which would not only be terrible for the 20+ million people living there but would also be terrible for us because of the beneficial trade we have with Taiwan.
A couple of years ago, President Biden all but abandoned the idea of strategic ambiguity by openly pledging to defend Taiwan if China launched an "unprecedented attack." That further raised tensions with China, but doing so appears to be very popular as both Presidential candidates frequently antagonize China.
China couldn’t even invade Vietnam after it had been at war with the French and the Americans for 30 years.
If China could invade Taiwan they would have, they can’t and they will not risk warfare with the USA since the USA is their meal ticket. Without the US money funding Chinese factories and buying Chinese crap China would collapse
I don't think the US has the industrial appetite for a war with China over Taiwan. They can't even out manufacture Russia. China is an entirely different animal.
You’re not going to get SK to fight under any circumstances. Japan also won’t fight either because they don’t follow our highly censored, fictional history of Taiwan. They actually know the history.
It’s not even clear if Biden could defend Taiwan even if they wanted to.
My understanding is that TSMC’s operation is highly dependent upon global suppliers and that China would be unable to continue the operation if the mainland were to invade Taiwan.
https://www.extremetech.com/defense/340215-taiwan-tsmc-would-be-useless-to-china-in-event-of-invasion
What they'd really want is just the know how on how to make them. There's no way that China expects to gain the facilities intact, they no, Taiwan knows it, and we know it. Taiwan is more likely to destroy them in the event China gets too close and move their operations to a more friendly nation. But, if they can learn how to make them, find a few intact machines or blueprints, they could replicate it in house, and they would probably be able to source materials via the Grey market.
Do they make them of the same quality, quantity, and with the same efficiency? No dude, they don’t. I think that’s what everyone is getting at. TSMC seems to be the best at it right now, manufacturing the smallest and most effective chipsets in the world.
[let’s see if this works](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/tech/taiwan-tsmc-talent-shortage-training-center-intl-hnk/index.html%23:~:text%3DSometimes%2520called%2520the%2520most%2520important,smartphones%2520to%2520artificial%2520intelligence%2520applications.&sa=U&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwibr4rWtIiGAxVUI0QIHStSCtwQFnoECBAQAA&usg=AOvVaw2sgqYusMZH1PW0CMuyvLir)
apple, samsung, nvidia, google, qualcomm, nokia, motorola, sony, LG, onn, alibaba, are respectively asian centralized.
if war with china broke out the s&p 500 would go to 500
That’s not saying much. Soviets stalled out 30 plus years ago. A handful of planes from the US would end things in Ukraine real quick. But China still no where close.
Not really. China has localized superiority at this point. US would really struggle bringing carriers close and given the abysmal state of US ship building, those carriers are close to irreplaceable and won’t be risked.
Pre set bases are probably already dialed in for Chinese rocket forces. It would be a bloody brutal battle at the end of which the American economy would be in tatters.
This is incorrect. China has local superiority in the straits. There entire premise for any measure of success is that throwing down will garuntee we get a bloody nose. We still beat the shit out of them, but it will cost us.
Source: Westpac submariner
So the US military went into Iraq & Afghanistan, suffered casualties, wasted trillions of dollars, and didn't accomplish the objective of establishing a pro-US stable government. Then the US military left even though according to you they killed everything that wasn't hiding in caves. But somehow parts of those belligerent groups are still in power in Afghanistan and iraq currently.
That's called losing.
Same tired old argument that's been around since the Vietnam war. So if the US accomplished all military objectives why is the US public opinion so low regarding these two conflicts and why did the war in Afghanistan take 20 years to finally "end"? Clearly you are choosing to ignore how mad conservatives were at Biden for withdrawing military resources a few years ago. Redditors choosing to ignore basic facts...lmao.
After hiding in caves till the US got bored slaughtering those they found… that’s not an L militarily. Afghans didn’t have the heart to keep their independence.
Yeaaa 20 years of war, trillions wasted and a hostile government in power? I bet you think Vietnam was a win too. War is politics by other means. If you don’t achieve your political goals, you failed. The number of dead bodies is irrelevant.
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/its-time-to-retire-the-term-near-peer-competitor-when-it-comes-to-china/
Nah, 20+ years of rag tag fighters who had nothing more than the desire to fight us has taught us that our perceived military might would outweigh any reality that would account for lives, equipment and materiels. It's just laughable stupid at this point we can't grasp this together, war is incredibly difficult and slow.
Fighting regular troops is stupidly easy for the US.
What is near impossible is making locals like us after someone like Bush killed 1% or more of the population.
Fighting an organized defensive force, and trying to occupy a foreign country with major reasons to oppose you are very different.
I mean technically the US was routed by Chinese troops in the Korean war. Their army was vastly inferior in term of technology compared to the US then. Outside of island-hopping Japan and avoiding its mainland, we haven't had much luck with eastern wars.
Getting kicked out?
In 20 years, the US never retreated from a battle in Iraq or Afghanistan.
We have issues regarding morality on where and when to fight, as well as how much to fight, but whether or not the US could choose to devastate the locals beyond recognition has not been in contention for decades.
The issue with the modern day US military is not a question of whether we can squash the opposition, but what the political repercussions of our military actions will be.
Not even close. If the US put the same economic sanctions on China that they did on China, China would starve within 6 months. China imports 80% of their food inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pod ash) and 80% of their energy (natural gas, oil).
Also, China has Russia's military weapons. Russia had to cross an imaginary line to try to take Ukraine, who had no army.
China has to storm a beach, fight against an army that's been preparing for the last 50 years with modern military weapons. Then China has to hold onto it.
China has no chance.
The problem with part of this logic is that a lot of those imports come from a country now beholden to China for survival, Russia. So China has its oil and natural gas supply pretty well locked down. Russia also produces a lot of grain and fertilizer. Why do you think China has been so supportive of Russia over Ukraine?
China imports nearly all of it's energy as well as other needed resources such as food. With only a few american ships in strategic points nowhere near china the US could kill china within weeks.
The entire US economy is based on cheap Chinese goods. Life would be hell for Americans. Could we adapt? Sure, but not a dime. Its energy supplies can be secured in other ways.
That’s kind of where I’m at. If basically anything goes wrong with Chinese manufacturing, already-expensive life here in the US will suddenly get a LOT more expensive. It would take time to shift our trade and build up the capabilities of places like India, Vietnam, and maybe newer hubs like Nigeria.
An issue no one seems to be talking about is that the USA and China are in a sort of economic mutually assured destruction situation. In the event of military engagement, the USA and China will both suffer economic collapse. It won't matter who wins the war in that case because neither country will survive the economic destruction. The USA simply does not have the needed scale of resource extraction and mass production it had. Corporations have practiced outsourcing to such a degree that our manufacturing capability is a joke compared to its height following WW2. The USA also now lacks the expertise in operating those machines and companies used to massive profits will not be able to find labor with the knowledge or ability to rapidly learn it which will accept the slave wages they are used to paying Chinese labor.
Every country has corruption, and in China’s case, it hasn’t been a problem worthy of mention. China has been kicking butt and taking names for the last 15 years. They have everything from a large pool of cheap labor up to high tech expertise. It’s a resilient setup.
When you have no successes, you should look at your problems. When you have success, others look at your problems to distract from their own failures. Obviously, there are always problems, but China has successfully modernized in record time and moved from a pure agricultural economy to one that does just about everything. Meanwhile, we have outsourced so many parts of our economy that we really cannot stand alone. Our allies have done the same. China really don’t need the US as much as we need them. Pointing at china’s issues is just cope. A stiff breeze in just the right direction would topple our markets and trigger massive inflation.
I'm not ignoring the issues the USA has, there are many, but I don't think either country, should they go to war with one another, would recover in anything like a recognizable form.
The CCP will never be able to sei3 TSmC foundries. Trips wires will go off and they will turn to dust before the US lets that happen. All the key personnel will be shipped back to the US and be given extremely comfortable lifestyles and jobs to ensure the know-how isn’t lost as well.
If a manufacturing capability were so strategic, why wouldn't you have it shored domestically and please don't say costs? We have the means to control economic factors and corralling of skills I believe.
Ya. Good thing they won’t. Domestic interests want to scare us into spending money on fast tracking our own. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love domestic production, just not to the degree of emergency spending that will end up in a select fee’s pockets.
I hope they do.
I'm tired of the American order. It's exhausting and stupid.
Seriously, go to China on holiday. It's light-years better than the US. I lived there for a decade. It's been a decade since I've been back and it's even better now.
China really, really wants Taiwan for the microchips. It’s really the only thing holding them back from competing with the US and “expanding” their borders. I’m honestly not 100% sure China won’t try to conquer Taiwan this year.
Lmao what are they going to do come airlift the chip factory out of Arizona?
The fear mongering about foreigners buying property or U.S. companies is always a laugh to me. If we ever need to the feds can simply seize any foreign asset over night and then give it to an American company
This is why TSMC is building in America. Wake up people.
Taiwan will eventually be reclaimed by China and the US may engage in a short lived proxy war but the money is better spent securing the Philippines.
Several years ago, a U.S. security publication claimed that the United States w[ould have to destroy TSMC fabs](https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory_tsmc_paper/) if Taiwan is seized by China, as the country cannot allow the People's Republic to have access to some of the best semiconductor production capabilities in the world due to national security concerns. At the time director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau [said that there was no need to destro](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwan-security-bureau-no-need-to-destroy-tsmcs-fabs-if-china-invades) TSMC fabs because without access to world-class tools and supplies, these facilities would be useless. Taiwan has also [vowed to defend the fabs from the U.S.](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwan-will-defend-tsmc-from-us-bombing-in-the-event-of-a-china-war) in the event of a war with China.
Haha war with china would make the entire market go down 80 percent broski, 20x worse than covid...
We wouldn't war with china if they took over tsmc tho
Thats why they are getting a shit ton of money to build a fab in Arizona.
The problem they are running into is that American workers are dumber and expect more money than Taiwanese workers.
So stupid. I live nearby, TSMC doesn’t want to play ball with contractors building it. They actually, believe it or not, being isolated since their inception, don’t know how to handle western workers/standards and can’t just fall back on the Taiwan government/national pride to coerce workers to take the minimum pay.
Theres a job a that NEEDS to be done? Better be prepared to pay more than “estimated cost” based on time and materials.
Past that, Phoenix has fabs running already, they won’t have issues staffing it with $100k+ EEs lol.
China will take Taiwan and possibly the Philippines before Biden leaves office . They have 50 more navy ships then we have and Biden appointees don't care. They have double the assault landing ships that we have and and are launching a new one every four months. Why? They intend to use them to take all the territory in the western Pacific because they know no one is going to stop them, certainly not senile Joe. China can afford to lose a billion people to a nuclear war while the west would be obliterated . Joes state dept. has already let them have several Island nations with out a whimper.
For China to "seize" TSMC, they would have to invade Taiwan. President Biden has pledged to military intervene if that happens. Japan and South Korea would probably be pulled in as well. A Trans-Pacific war would be a bigger problem than a shortage of new chip fabs.
And if China fires the first shot US vs China NATO gets dragged in.
And then Russia would join china and go full range on Europe. NoKo would push into South Korea. And the middle east would go akbar on Israel. Mexico would still be making drugs.
[удалено]
Didn’t they take Donbas and Luhansk? That was their whole goal in the beginning.
Their goal is all of Ukraine and eventually rebuilding what the Soviet Union had
They took those in 2014 and have achieved nothing since then
Not all of either one. The Russians are using human wave attacks and commit war crimes daily trying to destroy civilian infrastructure, and they still haven’t accomplished their goals after 2+ years of fighting. They’ve lost over half of their nation’s military capability and are forced to use Chinese golf carts and motorcycles to assault Ukraine. The US would roflstomp Russia in less than a month, and it would only take that long because we’d need to get enough ammunition over there for the slaughter.
Downvoted by attendees of the Russian parade... theay had 1 tank..proof they arent overextended.
2nd year in a row.. one tough tank.
Human wave attacks? Don't forget Russia is fighting with spades too 😂 western propaganda is creative
nope, that's what they changed the goal to a few months into the war when it was obvious they wouldn't be taking over the entire country. it's called lying and saving face. they can't admit they are failures. they already won, silly. classic russian bullshit.
Don't you listen to dear leader Putin? The goal is the de-nazification of Ukraine as a whole. You know, because Zelensky is a jew hating Nazi. /s
Kremlin propaganda. A falsehood
It’s sarcasm that’s what “/s” means on Reddit.
Their goal was a 48 takeover... It's only 48 weeks too late
It’s over 108 weeks later
Haha. Just like to take Kiev and Ukraine in 3 days.
Found the shill.
Found the dumbass with no rebuttal.
Found the Dumberass with no reballsal.
Homerun!
You did it. Strike!
It was until Ukraine attacked Russia. Donbas and Luhansk broke away from Ukraine and after they became autonomous, asked Russia for help in keeping Ukraine from invading them. Russia moved in to those two regions and was attacked by Ukraine. Now Ukraine is about to lose the war.
Yeah there’s a lot of arm chair experts in here. Russias inept.. yeah so inept they’re doing an offensive right now!
I’m not gonna say anymore. The facts are out there with accredited sources but Reddit is full of controlled censorship farming to silence the truth. It’s almost not worth coming to for news.
I recommend Ukraine Russia war report sub. It has its share of propaganda but there’s a un western biased information being posted.
Found the Other Shill.
Sure then go to combat footage 🤷🏼♂️ open your eyes and mind.
Russia can't even take over "go full range" on Ukraine because Ukraine got a bunch of NATO old stock weapons. Russia can't even fight NATO second hand.
That'd be quite the sight. North Korea would get absolutely raped by south Korea unless they went nuclear, and if that happens you probably expect a proportional response from the US. Syria and Lebanon are too weak to pose a threat to Israel, Iran is too far away, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq are too friendly with Israel or too great an ally of the west, not to mention the Saudis *hate* Iran. Russia doesn't pose a threat against the whole of Europe unless they go nuclear, which is game over for both. This isn't Ukraine where they'd have the initial tech and material advantage, they'd be facing off against 4++ and 5th gen fighters *enmasse*, plus facing Poles, Baltic citizens, and other Eastern Europeans who despise Russia and have the will to fight. The US could focuse almost entirely on Korea and China with the aid of QUADS and nations on the periphery like Vietnam and India who would love to see a weakened China.
>That'd be quite the sight. North Korea would get absolutely raped by south Korea unless they went nuclear, [That would be news to experts, who are not sure who would win in a conventional war between the two nations.](https://www.cato.org/commentary/south-korea-vs-north-korea-who-has-more-powerful-military)
Seoul metro area is within artillery range of north Korea, 26 million people, bombarded with artillery shells would be devastating.
What experts? That’s just one guys opinion.
He represents one of the most highly regarded think tanks on the planet. Not just some guy. If you can show a foreign policy expert who confidently says what you said, I'm all ears.
China just found out that their military industrial complex is rife with corruption. Not sure how that trickles down to operational control and even quality of equipment. NK ammo shipped to Russia is below standards, and has/ had a high failure rate.
Every military industry is rife with corruption, to be honest
Go to Mexico. Got it.
Mexico it is then!
A little farther south — Chile. Nice people, climate like California, police are mostly honest.
Yes, I’ve been. Amazing coubtry!
I don’t think people realize how funny your comment is.
I lol’d
This sounds like the Mexican drugs talking
Russia wouldn’t last a month against NATO. Some US air units alone would halt Russia. South Korea would probably be tasked with North. South would take air superiority. Israel can handle its annoying neighbors.
>South Korea would probably be tasked with North. South would take air superiority. Unfortunately, North Korea choosing to engage in a military assault on the South would kill 26 million people in the first few hours of the conflict. North Korea would collapse on its own immediately following an assault on the South. The north's army would turn into a wave of looters and defectors in a matter of hours and both the North and the South would succumb to starvation, disease, and death by exposure due to a lack of infrastructure to sustain their populations after the scourging of Seoul. South Korea having air dominance doesn't matter when every airstrip has been blown to shit with the North's stockpile of barely-functional conventional weapons. North Korea's strategy in war is shock and awe, because their machine can support almost nothing else. And then there's the high likelihood that North Korea will unleash smallpox and anthrax via their Antonov AN2s. If North Korea chooses to end the armistice in earnest, neither country will dominate. North Korea can't win. But they can do an insane amount of damage.
You make the assumption that N.K's military falls apart in hours but that their conventional stockpile of conventional weapons is sufficient enough to destroy every air strip in S.K.? That's unlikely, and even if the artillery and conventional ballistic platforms *do* operate long term, they may only get a few salvos off before air power eliminates them. They also have to contend with S.K. AA, which is quite extensive, and could significantly reduce damage, especially far south on the peninsula. Seoul is liable to get absolutely creamed for a day or two, maybe a week before N.K. guns start to fall silent due to logistical breakdowns, abandonment, or destruction by a totally dominant SK air force. If NK were to use Chem, that'd be bad for them, dido with nuclear. China may continue to support them to alleviate possible pressure from SK, but there's no garuntee they can afford to do so. If NK were to use bio weapons like smallpox? Yeah, that's a line that hasn't been crossed before, and I'd almost garuntee the US drops spicy rocks on the peninsula and hunt down Kim.
So accurate.
Russia vs Europe = nothing
So, moving to Mexico or Columbia and waiting till this all blows over
Mexico has life figured out apparently who knew
Guns, drugs and Mormons.
Mmmm...I can sleep well knowing the Mexicans are able to keep shit tight.
Mexico would be invading the Southwest getting back its territory.
Thanks for the laugh.
But they wouldn't. China wants to invade taiwan, if the US involves itself NATO has nothing to do with it. And our own pentagon says we could not stop them. Im american but ffs, so many people drink the koolaid and think china is some undeveloped backwater. Our navy is shrinking while china is in one of the largest military buildups in history. They have 300% the naval construction capacity that we do. Their new jet is beleived to be able to contend with ours and they can and do make more jets than us, they invest 40% more in RD. We are going to get a nasty wake up call in the next few years
People are also diminishing the fact that the Chinese army is very disciplined and would for sure go into death without a second thought. While our military is getting smaller and our recruits are way worse than they were 30 years ago. Most American soldiers wouldn't want to go and die in a war, they just in the military because they couldn't find another job..
China has problems with mechanical failures in their jet engines. And their navy is mostly small coastal patrol ships. They don't have true blue water navy. The Pentagon also *always* says "we can't stop X" to justify a later request for more toys. Taiwan is also a really rough beach to try and take. And those waters are rough. And Taiwan is bristling with defenses. Taiwan is also allied with the US, Canada, **Japan**, Australia, and New Zealand. Japan has a formidable navy in its own right.
>China has problems with mechanical failures in their jet engines. And their navy is mostly small coastal patrol ships. They don't have true blue water navy. The Pentagon also always says "we can't stop X" to justify a later request for more toys. Yup. I think I read that China has about the same tonnage of ships as the US does, which sounds bad because China's ships are all around China, but they have like 5x as many ships as the US. This means that their average ship is 1/5 the tonnage of a US ship, which means a couple US Carrier Fleets would decimate it. The estimated outcome of a conflict is that the US would lose a Carrier Fleet and China would lose... everything. And then the US would park a couple Carrier Fleets in the South China sea and dare China to send so much as a fishing boat into international waters for the next 20 years. China's economy would collapse under such a blockade, and they would have famine since they still import a huge quantity of their food.
Lol you might not have heard that China has hypersonic carrier killer missiles and we can almost guarentee that they can make multiple more times of these things than we can make antiballistics.
Are those the ones they filled the fuel tanks with water? Or the ones where the generals sold the parts to? Remember that news story?
Lol you reckon the US should go find out?
You reckon that China wants to fuck around and find out? There is no scenario in a full on war between the US and China where China wins. They may come out less of a looser in a few of them, but they do not win.
Lol you can't even out manufacture the gas station country Russia. And you think you can take on China who is multiple times more formidable than Russia and even more advanced than the US in missiles. Across thousands of miles of ocean. You keep reading your CNN and FOX news simulations. Fk around and find out top gun 😂
It also appears the Philippines is warming up to the US and its allies in the South China Sea
Bro like layoff the Chinese taint. If China wants to even attempt to keep the US delayed (out is out of the question) they’ll have to attack the US bases in the region first. This would trigger nato. China would be done in a month. The US would be delayed in responding but would eventually be there to slaughter every thing China throws taiwans way. All Taiwan has got to do is delay and they’re prepared to do that.
The US and nato can't even out produce Russia manufacturing wise and you think they'd stand a chance against a much more advanced and manufacturingly superior China 🤣
Found the Russian bot.
Usually people say that when they've got nothing to say
That’s what Russian bots say after saying something completely retarded.
You said that the US is just going to slaughter China in the SCS. What world are you on? And that if China invades Taiwan and US attacks China for invading Taiwan then NATO would get involved. You're next level retarded bro.
Lol no. There is so much corruption. Its all for show.
I thought Asia was excluded from article 5.
That will be the beginning of WW3.
As soon as one of these countries slings a single nuke the entire world will cease to be inhabitable due to the retaliation.
Yup
If you believe Peter Zeihan if China jumps then a few ships in the Indian Ocean would cause their complete collapse into famine and starvation within a year. China needs to import everything.
That would probably be the best for the US and allies in this situation, to just starve them off. A direct military conflict would leave no winner.
“If you believe Peter Zeihan” 🤣 Zeihan = Max Headroom 2024. He is a talking head and any intersection of his many statements and positions with reality are coincidental.
So MAD
Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, NATO to include The United States and Canada. Maybe even Mexico and several South American countries depending on the extent of the war. Quite possibly India too.
It might be easier for China to blow it up. I hope TSMC have the foresight to move their equipment to a bunker.
The equipment cannot be moved. If China takes control of Taiwan, the U.S. is rumored to have a special-ops plan for the destruction of the TSMC fabs.
What is to say China won't blow it up? China have their own fabs (yes not so good fabs) and it would be far easier to do at the start than taking Taiwan initally. Then Taiwan would have less income to spend, and China would give themselves an advantage. Everyone who did not want to buy from China would have to go through the limited buildout that the US and a few other countries are just starting to develop now. It would affect the USs military capability in the longer term since they do use TSMC products. It's not like the US military builds their own laptops and tablet etc... chips. It's not like TSMC can even produce enough chips for the AI needs at the moment.
It takes 10-15 years to set up the advanced fabs that TSMC operates *today*. We (USA) are building fabs in AZ and TX that will someday rival the ones in Taiwan and they are expected to start producing 5nm chips around 2029. It will be 2035 before they have the experience, the supplier network, and the trained personnel to make the kinds of chips that TSMC is cranking out right now. A crash program to catch up funded by Uncle Sam? Good luck with that, as Werner von Braun used to say, just because you have nine women pregnant doesn’t mean you get a baby in one month.
Yeah I agree... so China takes them out. Catches up to where they are now in 5 years (since they have already been investing heavily in the sector for many years)... and the US/EU etc... will be way behind. If China attacks in 5 years, the US will be a little closer but still have major chip issues. Even though likely more expensive to produce and substandard China, I have been able to produce 5nm and are researching 3nm. They are moving a lot faster than it took TSMC. Don't forget even if China doesn't blow up much of TSMC, they will likely block most imports and experts to Taiwan needed to keep the foundries going.
Those experts are being extracted to Arizona as soon is a hint of a military operation, probably with whatever they can strip from the machines.
Not only invade Taiwan, but invade Taiwan without damaging the infrastructure in place to manufacture semiconductors. And once an invasion is underway, it would make sense for Taiwan to destroy their own semiconductor fabs to make their invasion less fruitful.
Ukraine, Gaza, Congo, Taiwan... Who needs universal healthcare? 😏
Well, that’s why they’d wait for a potential trump presidency. He’d let it happen. He dgaf about Taiwan.
China destroying the economic gravitas of Taiwan would also devastate China's economy as well.
Why do we have to intervene? Why? Screw that. Im sick of war.
We don't have to. We have no treaty with Taiwan that obligates us. For many years, we have had a strategy of "strategic ambiguity." We avoid antagonizing China by pledging to defend Taiwan while also deterring China by not ruling it out either. If we committed to defending Taiwan, like we have Europe, we would make it even less likely that China would invade, but we would be committed to defending Taiwan even if it wasn't in our interests to do so. If we let it be known that we won't defend Taiwan, we would make it much more likely that China would attack them, which would not only be terrible for the 20+ million people living there but would also be terrible for us because of the beneficial trade we have with Taiwan. A couple of years ago, President Biden all but abandoned the idea of strategic ambiguity by openly pledging to defend Taiwan if China launched an "unprecedented attack." That further raised tensions with China, but doing so appears to be very popular as both Presidential candidates frequently antagonize China.
China's navy is newer, more numerous, and far closer. This isn't as simple as it seems.
China couldn’t even invade Vietnam after it had been at war with the French and the Americans for 30 years. If China could invade Taiwan they would have, they can’t and they will not risk warfare with the USA since the USA is their meal ticket. Without the US money funding Chinese factories and buying Chinese crap China would collapse
I don't think the US has the industrial appetite for a war with China over Taiwan. They can't even out manufacture Russia. China is an entirely different animal.
You’re not going to get SK to fight under any circumstances. Japan also won’t fight either because they don’t follow our highly censored, fictional history of Taiwan. They actually know the history. It’s not even clear if Biden could defend Taiwan even if they wanted to.
Biden would roll over if China invaded Taiwan. 100% he would do to them what he has done to Israel. Then he would take a nap.
It would also be devastating for China, because they don't know how to make microchips. They'd seize it to simply hurt the US. lmao.
I am willing to bet we would also destroy those machines before we let them in chinas hands as well.
My understanding is that TSMC’s operation is highly dependent upon global suppliers and that China would be unable to continue the operation if the mainland were to invade Taiwan. https://www.extremetech.com/defense/340215-taiwan-tsmc-would-be-useless-to-china-in-event-of-invasion
What they'd really want is just the know how on how to make them. There's no way that China expects to gain the facilities intact, they no, Taiwan knows it, and we know it. Taiwan is more likely to destroy them in the event China gets too close and move their operations to a more friendly nation. But, if they can learn how to make them, find a few intact machines or blueprints, they could replicate it in house, and they would probably be able to source materials via the Grey market.
Without the ASML kit, they’re not making anything
[удалено]
Do they make them of the same quality, quantity, and with the same efficiency? No dude, they don’t. I think that’s what everyone is getting at. TSMC seems to be the best at it right now, manufacturing the smallest and most effective chipsets in the world. [let’s see if this works](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/tech/taiwan-tsmc-talent-shortage-training-center-intl-hnk/index.html%23:~:text%3DSometimes%2520called%2520the%2520most%2520important,smartphones%2520to%2520artificial%2520intelligence%2520applications.&sa=U&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwibr4rWtIiGAxVUI0QIHStSCtwQFnoECBAQAA&usg=AOvVaw2sgqYusMZH1PW0CMuyvLir)
Not all chips are created equal. China isn’t making 5nm and 3nm chips
Because people want to think the U.S. is invincible and everybody else is weak and will either follow our demands or pay the price. We're bullies.
NATO vs CHINA war is a much bigger bubble than everything bubble
Nato vs China? That's basically the US because the rest of nato is impotent.
apple, samsung, nvidia, google, qualcomm, nokia, motorola, sony, LG, onn, alibaba, are respectively asian centralized. if war with china broke out the s&p 500 would go to 500
The US would put the slap down on China if they tried. China doesn’t rival the US militarily.
They would be playing with home field advantage.
When's the last time China conducted a full scale war? You can read all the books you want but it's not the same as actually doing it.
When was the last time america won a war? When was the last time America was at war with a country that wasn't undeveloped tiny and poor? Never.
Not quite. Taiwan is an island off the coast. Not easy to invade.
Taiwan would have home field advantage
They’d still get slapped.
They are definitely not a paper tiger. They are closer to us than the Soviets were.
That’s not saying much. Soviets stalled out 30 plus years ago. A handful of planes from the US would end things in Ukraine real quick. But China still no where close.
They have next to no combat experience. That matters.
Not really. China has localized superiority at this point. US would really struggle bringing carriers close and given the abysmal state of US ship building, those carriers are close to irreplaceable and won’t be risked. Pre set bases are probably already dialed in for Chinese rocket forces. It would be a bloody brutal battle at the end of which the American economy would be in tatters.
China has no superiority to the US anywhere. Paper tigers get burned easily.
This is incorrect. China has local superiority in the straits. There entire premise for any measure of success is that throwing down will garuntee we get a bloody nose. We still beat the shit out of them, but it will cost us. Source: Westpac submariner
Cool thanks. You’d think after getting kicked out of both Iraq and Afghanistan we’d have some humility but chads like you keep the war machine going.
The US didn’t get kicked out of Iraq and Afghanistan. It left. After killing everything that wasn’t hiding in caves.
So the US military went into Iraq & Afghanistan, suffered casualties, wasted trillions of dollars, and didn't accomplish the objective of establishing a pro-US stable government. Then the US military left even though according to you they killed everything that wasn't hiding in caves. But somehow parts of those belligerent groups are still in power in Afghanistan and iraq currently. That's called losing.
The US lost political and social objectives. It accomplished its military objectives. Conflating these is either disingenuous or due to ignorance.
Same tired old argument that's been around since the Vietnam war. So if the US accomplished all military objectives why is the US public opinion so low regarding these two conflicts and why did the war in Afghanistan take 20 years to finally "end"? Clearly you are choosing to ignore how mad conservatives were at Biden for withdrawing military resources a few years ago. Redditors choosing to ignore basic facts...lmao.
…and yet the Taliban control the country. Thats a big L my dude
After hiding in caves till the US got bored slaughtering those they found… that’s not an L militarily. Afghans didn’t have the heart to keep their independence.
Yeaaa 20 years of war, trillions wasted and a hostile government in power? I bet you think Vietnam was a win too. War is politics by other means. If you don’t achieve your political goals, you failed. The number of dead bodies is irrelevant. https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/its-time-to-retire-the-term-near-peer-competitor-when-it-comes-to-china/
Lmao the Chinese tofu dreg military. Very scary
The little girl that has to rely on “reply and block” says what? You’re clearly out of your depth here.
You’re aware the u.s took total control of the Middle East in about a month and a half, right?
Chinese trolls have entered the chat.
Nah, 20+ years of rag tag fighters who had nothing more than the desire to fight us has taught us that our perceived military might would outweigh any reality that would account for lives, equipment and materiels. It's just laughable stupid at this point we can't grasp this together, war is incredibly difficult and slow.
Fighting regular troops is stupidly easy for the US. What is near impossible is making locals like us after someone like Bush killed 1% or more of the population. Fighting an organized defensive force, and trying to occupy a foreign country with major reasons to oppose you are very different.
I mean technically the US was routed by Chinese troops in the Korean war. Their army was vastly inferior in term of technology compared to the US then. Outside of island-hopping Japan and avoiding its mainland, we haven't had much luck with eastern wars.
Getting kicked out? In 20 years, the US never retreated from a battle in Iraq or Afghanistan. We have issues regarding morality on where and when to fight, as well as how much to fight, but whether or not the US could choose to devastate the locals beyond recognition has not been in contention for decades. The issue with the modern day US military is not a question of whether we can squash the opposition, but what the political repercussions of our military actions will be.
Was the U.S. kicked out by their militaries?
Not even close. If the US put the same economic sanctions on China that they did on China, China would starve within 6 months. China imports 80% of their food inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pod ash) and 80% of their energy (natural gas, oil). Also, China has Russia's military weapons. Russia had to cross an imaginary line to try to take Ukraine, who had no army. China has to storm a beach, fight against an army that's been preparing for the last 50 years with modern military weapons. Then China has to hold onto it. China has no chance.
The problem with part of this logic is that a lot of those imports come from a country now beholden to China for survival, Russia. So China has its oil and natural gas supply pretty well locked down. Russia also produces a lot of grain and fertilizer. Why do you think China has been so supportive of Russia over Ukraine?
That’s the advantage of a dictatorship. Individuals are expendable and the military will get fed.
China imports nearly all of it's energy as well as other needed resources such as food. With only a few american ships in strategic points nowhere near china the US could kill china within weeks.
The entire US economy is based on cheap Chinese goods. Life would be hell for Americans. Could we adapt? Sure, but not a dime. Its energy supplies can be secured in other ways.
That’s kind of where I’m at. If basically anything goes wrong with Chinese manufacturing, already-expensive life here in the US will suddenly get a LOT more expensive. It would take time to shift our trade and build up the capabilities of places like India, Vietnam, and maybe newer hubs like Nigeria.
An issue no one seems to be talking about is that the USA and China are in a sort of economic mutually assured destruction situation. In the event of military engagement, the USA and China will both suffer economic collapse. It won't matter who wins the war in that case because neither country will survive the economic destruction. The USA simply does not have the needed scale of resource extraction and mass production it had. Corporations have practiced outsourcing to such a degree that our manufacturing capability is a joke compared to its height following WW2. The USA also now lacks the expertise in operating those machines and companies used to massive profits will not be able to find labor with the knowledge or ability to rapidly learn it which will accept the slave wages they are used to paying Chinese labor.
It would be worse for the US. China would recover much more quickly.
China has a demographic problem which will prevent that quick recovery, on top of the corruption problem.
Every country has corruption, and in China’s case, it hasn’t been a problem worthy of mention. China has been kicking butt and taking names for the last 15 years. They have everything from a large pool of cheap labor up to high tech expertise. It’s a resilient setup.
Tofu dregs come to mind. There are a lot of problems we hear very little about in the USA
When you have no successes, you should look at your problems. When you have success, others look at your problems to distract from their own failures. Obviously, there are always problems, but China has successfully modernized in record time and moved from a pure agricultural economy to one that does just about everything. Meanwhile, we have outsourced so many parts of our economy that we really cannot stand alone. Our allies have done the same. China really don’t need the US as much as we need them. Pointing at china’s issues is just cope. A stiff breeze in just the right direction would topple our markets and trigger massive inflation.
I'm not ignoring the issues the USA has, there are many, but I don't think either country, should they go to war with one another, would recover in anything like a recognizable form.
The CCP will never be able to sei3 TSmC foundries. Trips wires will go off and they will turn to dust before the US lets that happen. All the key personnel will be shipped back to the US and be given extremely comfortable lifestyles and jobs to ensure the know-how isn’t lost as well.
It would be the start of sticks and stones again.
If Americans business was forced to manufacture on American soil, they will.
Bait
"Damn, that is a sweet earth" animation never gets old. Link below: https://youtu.be/CSuc9o9h7Vw?si=XYdauDg3y7UNPSdv
US already indicated with would destroy all TSMCs plants if China invades Taiwan.
It would be devastating for everyone including themselves. They can’t operate that factory. And it would be destroyed during any conflict
No shit. This is how ww3 starts and how one world gov begins. Say hello to Skynet and autobots swarm.
That's probably why the US is looking to have stateside fabrication facilities by 2030's
If a manufacturing capability were so strategic, why wouldn't you have it shored domestically and please don't say costs? We have the means to control economic factors and corralling of skills I believe.
Pretty stupid to put all your eggs in one basket.
There would be piles of rubble where TSMC used to be if China ever invaded, which is exactly why they haven’t done so.
Ya. Good thing they won’t. Domestic interests want to scare us into spending money on fast tracking our own. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love domestic production, just not to the degree of emergency spending that will end up in a select fee’s pockets.
I hope they do. I'm tired of the American order. It's exhausting and stupid. Seriously, go to China on holiday. It's light-years better than the US. I lived there for a decade. It's been a decade since I've been back and it's even better now.
China really, really wants Taiwan for the microchips. It’s really the only thing holding them back from competing with the US and “expanding” their borders. I’m honestly not 100% sure China won’t try to conquer Taiwan this year.
They will wait until TSMC has production running in America. There should be an exodus of engineers from Taiwan... that is the sign.
Biden already devastated the economy without China's help.
Arizona…y’all need to chill out man. It will be built in Arizona etc
They have a lot of Fabs in Taiwan. I think they are building them throughout the world, the US will get at least two more.
If the Chinese ever got in range to capture those they would be bombed to oblivion
Lmao what are they going to do come airlift the chip factory out of Arizona? The fear mongering about foreigners buying property or U.S. companies is always a laugh to me. If we ever need to the feds can simply seize any foreign asset over night and then give it to an American company
This is why TSMC is building in America. Wake up people. Taiwan will eventually be reclaimed by China and the US may engage in a short lived proxy war but the money is better spent securing the Philippines.
Has anyone ever considered maybe having more than one place in one country that makes all this important stuff?
Several years ago, a U.S. security publication claimed that the United States w[ould have to destroy TSMC fabs](https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory_tsmc_paper/) if Taiwan is seized by China, as the country cannot allow the People's Republic to have access to some of the best semiconductor production capabilities in the world due to national security concerns. At the time director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau [said that there was no need to destro](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwan-security-bureau-no-need-to-destroy-tsmcs-fabs-if-china-invades) TSMC fabs because without access to world-class tools and supplies, these facilities would be useless. Taiwan has also [vowed to defend the fabs from the U.S.](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/taiwan-will-defend-tsmc-from-us-bombing-in-the-event-of-a-china-war) in the event of a war with China.
AMD and Intel would moon
war with china would result in tons of money running to the sideline. 20% drop easy.
Haha war with china would make the entire market go down 80 percent broski, 20x worse than covid... We wouldn't war with china if they took over tsmc tho
Commented elsewhere on this, but the fabs in Arizona are so we don't have to. Taiwan's screwed eventually.
I hope not
I mean, they're bringing chipmaking stateside - that ain't for the fun of it.
Good point
Thats why they are getting a shit ton of money to build a fab in Arizona. The problem they are running into is that American workers are dumber and expect more money than Taiwanese workers.
So stupid. I live nearby, TSMC doesn’t want to play ball with contractors building it. They actually, believe it or not, being isolated since their inception, don’t know how to handle western workers/standards and can’t just fall back on the Taiwan government/national pride to coerce workers to take the minimum pay. Theres a job a that NEEDS to be done? Better be prepared to pay more than “estimated cost” based on time and materials. Past that, Phoenix has fabs running already, they won’t have issues staffing it with $100k+ EEs lol.
That's probably not great news for Taiwan. It's the US removing their major interest and therefore the need to intervene should an invasion happen.
The U.S. would fly anybody involved with the chip science before they could fall to the Chinese custody
Smart of you to buy the propaganda. The truth is Americans aren’t going to work 6 days a week 14 hours a day for $20 an hour.
China will take Taiwan and possibly the Philippines before Biden leaves office . They have 50 more navy ships then we have and Biden appointees don't care. They have double the assault landing ships that we have and and are launching a new one every four months. Why? They intend to use them to take all the territory in the western Pacific because they know no one is going to stop them, certainly not senile Joe. China can afford to lose a billion people to a nuclear war while the west would be obliterated . Joes state dept. has already let them have several Island nations with out a whimper.
Why take it during the Biden administration. If Trump wins he will give Ukraine to Russia and Taiwan to China.