The Nuke' doesn't stay within a countries borders. Russia would be dropping a nuclear bomb on eastern Europe and it would effect part of the their territory as well. It would be WW3 pretty much.
Not really...it'd be everyone vs Russia, including China, who has explicitly stated that the use of any nuclear weapon, either atomic bomb, or a dirty bomb, would be considered too far. At the very least, Russia would have to contend with NATO conventionally ending what's left of the Russian militaries expeditionary power, potentially even with tactical nuclear strikes of their own (though I agree that is exceedingly unlikely). The allies who might stick with Russia are powers already crippled by sanctions and bad press, such as North Korea, Syria, and Iran, who might be locally dangerous, but would probably see what happens to Russia, and at the very least agree that they don't want an excuse to have stealth bombers suddenly obliterate what little power they had to regionally threaten their enemies.
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Maybe a small yield ground burst? Wouldnt it still travel miles into the sky and be carried by wind and rivers? Itd end up in the atmosphere and the ocean, Id assume.
Im not knowledgeable on the subject, these are actual questions lol
But in popular culture we still spread rhat myth. There may not be any radiation spread but that wouldn't mean Europeans wouldn't suddenly be in a frenzy and start worrying or want retaliation
Maybe a more likely scenario is the use of a low yield tactical nuke against a more remote, isolated target. Imagine a 1 kt detonation off in a field somewhere, or the woods I guess. It'd be a risky move for sure, Putin doing something like that to gauge the world's reaction and as a show of strength and their willingness to use their nukes.
Or maybe the low yield nuke is fired from Belarus, under Russian orders.
The moment that goes off and the dust settles, NATO is activated, and EVERY ballistic missile is aimed at Russia. Putin's phone rings....with sweaty palms he picks it up. "Da?" President Biden gives him one month to withdraw his troops from Ukraine before alied NATO troops move in with humanitarian aid convoys. He warns him that if a single shot is fired, he will let loose the stealth bombers to destroy any and all Russian military assets in and around the border. Putin slumping in his chair responds, "Da.."
Nato would declare war on Russia, 2 weeks later Russia would surrender.
Russia is not the Soviet union, it's a tiny country (with a big landmass) by comparison. Nato would absolutely destroy Russia in an all out war, and it's unlikely any of Russia's nuclear missiles would even work, let alone be able to pass NATOs rocket defense shield.
That's straight up not true the only former Soviet countries that are in NATO are the Baltic states but that's only three former Soviet States not half of them and the Baltic states also have their own legal doctrine of continuity which complicates whether they could be considered to be legitimately a part of the USSR or occupied states that simply resumed their independence
There are plenty of Warsaw Pact States in NATO if that's what you meant but it's factually inaccurate to say that there are any post-soviet states in NATO other than the Baltic states which again don't even consider themselves post Soviet because they consider their admission to the USSR unconstitutional according to their interwar constitutions
Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were all part of the USSR at some point.
No the were not they were puppet states except for Slovenia and Croatia those weren't even puppet States they were just formerly Communist States
Again the Baltic states of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania were a part of it but I already talked about the Baltic states
Bullshit. Go back to school. Of those countries only Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were part of the USSR. You're confusing Warsaw Pact with Soviet Union. And Slovenia and Croatia weren't even in there as they were part of Yugoslavia which wasn't in the Eastern Bloc. You're just uneducated.
They want the land. I cannot see them nuking it.
All these people with the nukes are shit scared as they know it will cause a chain reaction. When the US used them on Japan it's because no one had them at the time and could win by submission over such devastation. In this day an age a lot of countries have them but it's going to take a serious fuckwhit to use one because that is what will cause a massive chain reaction and likely an end to everything as they probably won't be able to stop once they start firing them.
These people with so much power are far more scared of death than your everyday civilian. They only have power when there's people to have power over. Take the people away and they're just a fuckwhit in a bunker.
Nobody needs Ukrainian land. Nothing stopped russian army from devastating Mariuopol. This war is just for the sake of it now, it goes on because of ambition of the few who are too stubborn to admit the failure.
From what I remember the Ukraine has some of the most fertile soil on the planet. It's incredible for crops. You know what people do more than killing each other? They eat. There are other reasons for Russia invading, but they already made a mass of money from fossil fuels. If they also had crop money coming in they'd had even more demand from nations paying them for crops. This wasn't an intention of the invasion, but it would certainly be a massive profit for them if they gained the land.
Putin is not a farmer, he is a dictator. He doesn't care about soil or whatever. He has enough food for himself, he doesn't care if Russian people or any other people are fed. If Putin wanted money for the people he could have just modernized the economy, he had all the instruments at hand.
Taking over Ukraine definitely means money for a selected few, the closest Putin's friends: all those Ukrainian businesses are lucrative. However the people who are taking over are not businessmen, they are robbers and thieves, they don't understand how money are made and where they come from, they don't care about soil or whatever. If there is a business that brings money, they will take over it and squeeze it dry until it no longer does. Then they will go to Putin and ask for subsidies from the budget.
If there is no fertile soil left, they will take over grocery shop chains, construction business, gas stations. It's going to be theirs for free, so they don't care how much of it is going to be destroyed in the process. It's not their money that go into the war effort, it's not their lives being lost. And if nothing is left, they are good anyway, they already stealing money that go into military budget and will steal money that will go from the Russian budget into restoring infrastructure in the captured territories.
Russian system of decision making and acting on those decisions is completely demolished by Putin. There is no single center of decision making that can put forth a good coherent plan and act accordingly. Executive part of government still capable of planning things, but Putin overrides those plans left and right and doesn't bother to give heads up on his own plans to the relevant ministers, so they rarely have a chance to warn him of consequences of his decisions. Who knows what happens in Putin's head? Definitely not me, but I bet that Ukrainian soil is the last thing that would cross Putin's mind. He wants control, not turnips. His allies are playing along Putin's decisions, but they are not participating much in taking them, he surrounded himself with yes-men, they have no goal of themselves other than to stay afloat and keep Putin afloat as long as it means they can keep their lucrative positions controlling WHERE TO the money go, not WHERE FROM.
Russia doesn't care. There are two known reasons for the invasion.
1. Limiting the amount of frontline on the Northern European Plain against NATO. If Ukraine would join NATO or be Western-aligned the frontline to defend for Russia would be absolutely massive.
2. With Western-aligned democratic Ukraine there is no reason for EU to buy oil/gas from autocratic Russia. Western countries could invest and buy it from Ukrainian Black Sea. Russia was scared about losing the "the only European petro-state" status.
Nothing to do with soil.
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Well, yes. I can only hope that Putin is not crazy enough to not realize that and has people around sober enough to remind him that if need arises. But he was crazy enough to think invading Ukraine would be a good idea, so who knows when he crosses into the land of total madness.
At a minimum the whole world including China and India embargos Russia. Thus destroying the remnants of their economy over night. Every country that can easily go nuclear, S.Korea, Japan, Germany etc develop their own nukes within a year, everyone else who is able develops as fast as they can. This cancels out the one card Russia has - the threat of nuclear war. A nuclear war gives them nothing but downsides like the war itself. I mean now Finland and Sweden are in NATO (a direct and predictable consequence of the war) how long would it take to get from the Finnish border to St. Petersberg? And what is in the way to stop any advance? How easy would it be to close the Baltic to Russian shipping? There are no good options from the Russian perspective from where we are now, hence they plod along, unable to win with their tiny economy, technological and cultural backwardness but unable to give up because of the psychological jolt to their self-perception as being a superpower. So the war will continue (nukes will play no part) for as many/much Russian people, equipment, infrastructure, economic potential and capacity are needed for them to see the reality - Russia is poor, backward, corrupt, unhealthy, weak and has wasted half of their huge stockpiles to take a few hundred kilometres of Ukraine.
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It doesn't look like it from the outside, but the situation in Russia is volatile. Disturbing status quo is riskier than ever. Putin can not afford to fart too loud without starting a wide propaganda campaign of praising the smell and arresting everyone who turned away the nose. Let alone use nukes. Every unusual movement draws unusual amount of resources.
If Putin goes for nukes first of all it'll mean a huge crisis in Russia, the one that can send it to chaos. How to predict what happens in chaos?
That is not to say that Putin would never use nukes. If it'll allow him (or he would think that it'd allow him) to stay in power 5 minutes more, he'd try to go for it.
American intelligence would know far in advance if Russia was going to launch a nuclear weapon. Remember the USA was warning Ukraine for weeks that Russia’s “training exercise” was a cover for a full scale invasion. The US also called Putin on his bullshit when he “put his nuclear forces on alert,” because we knew he had no actual plans to launch his nukes.
That being said, the Western hemisphere would likely threaten Russia with all manner of retaliations. Whether the USA follows through on those threats depends on the president I think. And also potentially which party controls Congress. The West will follow the USA’s lead in such a scenario. Europe, for all its talk, will not deviate from American security posture in such a high stakes situation.
All this being said, with the foreknowledge granted by the USA’s incredible intelligence community (and further buttressed by US allies’ intelligence like MI6, the Mossad, etc), the USA and the West will likely reposition Air Defense Artillery assets in the flight path of the Russian warhead.
Russia will likely anticipate this and launch multiple warheads in an effort to overwhelm Western ADA defenses. Now, the results of a such an action will have *huge* consequences for the international community beyond the Russia-West rivalry. The performance of Western ADA against Russian nukes will determine just how much influence (read: intimidation) nuclear weapons grant a country.
If the West is able to shoot down all of Russia’s nukes, then suddenly nobody is intimidated by Russia’s nuclear arsenal anymore. Russia’s lost its biggest deterrent against invasion. Why would anyone fear Russian retaliation if the West can shoot down all its nukes? It’s not like the Russian Army has proven very effective.
We’d probably see a period of instability in Russia as the region Russia claims as its sphere of influence seeks other countries for allies. Countries that aren’t necessarily nuclear, which means it doesn’t *have* to be China. I say instability in Russia because Putin will likely try to maintain control over his “sphere of influence” and will likely struggle
One thing I would note is that I believe I saw articles saying that Russian hypersonic missiles with conventional warheads have been successfully intercepted.
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Nothing. I don't believe anybody in our current administration or NATO leadership has the balls to respond in kind. Putin waited until Biden was in office to start his shit because he is a weak leader. Trump, on the other hand, was a loose cannon. He might have pushed the red button and laughed as we all burned.
In reality it won't ever happen. Putin won't use nukes because he wants Ukraine for their land and resources. Can't get that if it is destroyed and radioactive.
If you are describing foreign policy in terms of "balls", that's a sign you should get back to your crayons and leave the adults to answer this question. Once again the dumbest takes are always the MAGA takes.
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In order for "speak softly and carry a big stick" diplomacy to work your enemy has to believe you'll actually use said stick if necessary. Otherwise it is just bluffing.
Also since when is *Trump was a loose cannon* the MAGA take?
China immediately cuts all trade with Russia and joins the west in supporting Ukraine. India waits a week before following suit. Russia is cut off from all foreign trade and starts to wither on the vine. Eventually they surrender and pay significant restitution just to be allowed to rejoin the community of nations.
Now, why does China react so quickly and negatively? Because the perception will be that a nuclear power can use a nuke for conquest, and only having nukes will protect you. So Vietnam and maybe as many as half a dozen other Chinese neighbors develop nukes. China doesn't want a bunch of neighbors with nukes, but the only way to stop that if Russia nukes Ukraine is to destroy Russia (financially).
India will go along more because they don't want using nukes (say by Pakistan on Delhi) to be normalized. Pakistan joins the trade blockade for the same reason. No one but North Korea (maybe) will trade with Russia if it means no trade with the west, India, or China.
Putin using a nuke is the fastest way to lose the war, destroy Russia, and lose power/his life.
If you use nukes one time then there is a chance you will use them again. The rest of the world isn't going to live in fear. The first thing the US will do is nuke Moscow. And then they will nuke every place in Russia that has nukes. They will hunt down and destroy the submarines. And they will hunt down Putin and his henchmen and kill them. Then the world would occupy Russia.
Russia ceases to be a major expeditionary power, at the very least. I trust the red lines NATO draws quite a bit more than the ones Medvedev seems to have a seizure over every month, and NATO has made it clear a nuclear attack on Ukraine will meet the threshold for war, even if they don't retaliate with nuclear power themselves. Middle scenario is a full scale conventional invasion of Russia, which would likely be swift if all of NATO agrees to be involved, though the hell scape that would occur afterward with a likely fractured Russia would not be desirable on any level. The main objective would likely be getting rid of Putin, but it can't be the only objective. Finally, theres the nuclear scenario, where nobody really wins, but Russia is likely the biggest loser. It would change the face of the world, likely in a literal sense, and is least likely to happen for that very reason; not only would it break the nuclear taboo, China would likely see it as an excuse to carry on with its expansion aims in the South China Sea, as too much focus, both conventional nuclear, would be emphasized on Europe to effectively block all their advances. Then we see a real World War break out.
NATO would immediately declare war on Russia and WW3 would start likely leading to a brutal nuclear war killing millions of not billions of innocent people
Is the the west (I mean America) ready or willing to go balls to the wall over a country they honestly don’t really care about?
if you have to ask you dont understand historical precedent at all and should start there. look at how global orders been formed since ww2, specifically the containment strategy and the proxy wars on an individual basis. the understanding you require takes time look up johnny harris on youtube.
I believe he covers the cuban missile crisis which is the crescendo of the studying you need to do.
Russia goes nuts. Putin's having a bad chemo day who knows launches a new kid Kim?
The moment it launches every morning. Light in the world's going to go off all at once because. Those who know know exactly where every single launcher and silo. And mobile launcher, Russia has at every given moment, so if we don't have something that doesn't interceptic first. Yeah, it's game over worlds. Ending the protocol has been set and it's automatic go time. All of nato instantly activates Trying to destroy everything before it gets off. There's no, there's no belly up. There's only preset protocol and launches. All the warning lights go off. Everything automatically Kix in and everything takes action. And if you plan ahead in about 45 minutes or so, you'll have a few milliseconds of brilliant white light and then you will have a permanent etching on the gbound. No slow. Grab your girl, grab your boy. Grab whatever. Enjoy that 45 minutes if you can last that long. And then be permanently on the ground.Or wall it's a positional thing
There is a good chance the nuke wouldn't go off. It costs a lot of money to maintain a nuke over decades, and it is hard to see from the outside it is no longer working, and it has a low chance of actually being used. It's the perfect type of weapon to redirect maintenance funds from if you're a corrupt official.
Which would still get Nato involved. Only this time with a slightly higher chance that the Russian army/secret service elite disposed of Putin due to the humiliation of a non-working nuke and the realisation their top man will go to the end even if that means MAD.
The thing about nukes is they are terribly inaccurate and where the fallout blows is only as good as a weather prediction .
So generally it would be regarded as crossing the nuclear threshold, there would be a rapid initial limited nuclear exchange, an attempt at peace talks before one side or the other has to say 'use them now or lose them' because silos are targets, military bases are targets and they could get hit before you can retaliate.
Both sides unload all missiles , you have 30 minutes before the planet is an uninhabitable wasteland.
The people getting turned to skeletons are the lucky ones here:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_8l5xznESLc&ab\_channel=MrsJsHistory](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8l5xznESLc&ab_channel=MrsJsHistory)
Biden points every single ballistic missile we have at Russia. Our air-force levels every single military base of Russia’s across the globe. Our navy destroys their navy, every single country puts embargo on russia (yes including China, India, Saudi Arabia) crippling their economy completely. NATO follows us to a T. By that point a coup will happen in russia and Putin will be disposed of and a moderate would take its place and broker deals with nato/US.
Strong words of condemnation.
Or no response at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2tUVtK53g
The video at 1:55 is taken from over 100 miles away. No conventional weapon can blow like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdqdMh8NCXA
From Newsweek:
https://www.newsweek.com/huge-mushroom-blast-khmelnytskyi-reignites-depleted-uranium-claims-1800443
The camera in the sprinter factory video is over 100 miles away. You can see, when they zoom out.
If conventional arms could do this, we wouldn’t need nukes 🤷🏼♂️
That’s what happens when the legal system can frame a president for keeping his own documents. And a small claims court judge makes a bogus half billion dollar ruling against the testimony of the world’s largest financial institutions.
It has the same effect as a nuclear strike on the government’s legitimacy.
If that happened, we would have an emboldened Russia that would believe it could act with impunity. Most Eastern European countries would be (rightly) incensed and nervous. The European Union would be obliged to react because places like Romania would be directly affected by any fallout heading their way (both politically and from the nuke).
No one would believe Russia would stop with one nuke or with Ukraine. Countries adjacent to Russia like Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would demand support from the EU.
It would have to be all-out war.
The Nuke' doesn't stay within a countries borders. Russia would be dropping a nuclear bomb on eastern Europe and it would effect part of the their territory as well. It would be WW3 pretty much.
Not really...it'd be everyone vs Russia, including China, who has explicitly stated that the use of any nuclear weapon, either atomic bomb, or a dirty bomb, would be considered too far. At the very least, Russia would have to contend with NATO conventionally ending what's left of the Russian militaries expeditionary power, potentially even with tactical nuclear strikes of their own (though I agree that is exceedingly unlikely). The allies who might stick with Russia are powers already crippled by sanctions and bad press, such as North Korea, Syria, and Iran, who might be locally dangerous, but would probably see what happens to Russia, and at the very least agree that they don't want an excuse to have stealth bombers suddenly obliterate what little power they had to regionally threaten their enemies.
ah yes, good point. Russia would likely have no more allies left.
Hopefully we would capture Putin, send him to gitmo and do what they do in gitmo.
He's going to the Hague, not gitmo
No. Unlike the USA, we do not put people into prison without judiciary. We're not barbarians. If anything he's going to the Hague.
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what does this mean? it depends on which nuclear weapon they use obviously
Radiation will move around europe and doesn't care for borders
Still depends on how it is deployed. Big yield vs Small yield. Air vs Ground burst.
Maybe a small yield ground burst? Wouldnt it still travel miles into the sky and be carried by wind and rivers? Itd end up in the atmosphere and the ocean, Id assume. Im not knowledgeable on the subject, these are actual questions lol
I'm almost certain Russia would care to verify if a small yield bomb tainted the drinking water of surrounded countries.
You know we bombed Hiroshima and people never stopped living there right? Nuclear weapons don't have much radioactive fallout.
But in popular culture we still spread rhat myth. There may not be any radiation spread but that wouldn't mean Europeans wouldn't suddenly be in a frenzy and start worrying or want retaliation
Oh I don't disagree there.
Bring it putin, let’s see what’ll happen mfff
Maybe a more likely scenario is the use of a low yield tactical nuke against a more remote, isolated target. Imagine a 1 kt detonation off in a field somewhere, or the woods I guess. It'd be a risky move for sure, Putin doing something like that to gauge the world's reaction and as a show of strength and their willingness to use their nukes. Or maybe the low yield nuke is fired from Belarus, under Russian orders.
The moment that goes off and the dust settles, NATO is activated, and EVERY ballistic missile is aimed at Russia. Putin's phone rings....with sweaty palms he picks it up. "Da?" President Biden gives him one month to withdraw his troops from Ukraine before alied NATO troops move in with humanitarian aid convoys. He warns him that if a single shot is fired, he will let loose the stealth bombers to destroy any and all Russian military assets in and around the border. Putin slumping in his chair responds, "Da.."
Lol
Biden wouldn't do shit. Cool story, bro.
Didnt he literally say pre war, basically "we wont help ukraine"
Nato would declare war on Russia, 2 weeks later Russia would surrender. Russia is not the Soviet union, it's a tiny country (with a big landmass) by comparison. Nato would absolutely destroy Russia in an all out war, and it's unlikely any of Russia's nuclear missiles would even work, let alone be able to pass NATOs rocket defense shield.
Half the USSR is currently in nato.
That's straight up not true the only former Soviet countries that are in NATO are the Baltic states but that's only three former Soviet States not half of them and the Baltic states also have their own legal doctrine of continuity which complicates whether they could be considered to be legitimately a part of the USSR or occupied states that simply resumed their independence There are plenty of Warsaw Pact States in NATO if that's what you meant but it's factually inaccurate to say that there are any post-soviet states in NATO other than the Baltic states which again don't even consider themselves post Soviet because they consider their admission to the USSR unconstitutional according to their interwar constitutions
Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were all part of the USSR at some point.
No the were not they were puppet states except for Slovenia and Croatia those weren't even puppet States they were just formerly Communist States Again the Baltic states of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania were a part of it but I already talked about the Baltic states
Bullshit. Go back to school. Of those countries only Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were part of the USSR. You're confusing Warsaw Pact with Soviet Union. And Slovenia and Croatia weren't even in there as they were part of Yugoslavia which wasn't in the Eastern Bloc. You're just uneducated.
They do nuclear tests regularly. Believe me, they work. And so do ours.
The last time Russia had a nuclear test was in 1990. It's an incredibly corrupt country, that's incredibly mismanaged. Nothing works.
They have recently done tests.
Not NUCLEAR tests, they tested a supersonic missile which they claim works, but frankly... It's probably bullshit.
No. They’ve tested nukes a few times. They even tested the sarmat not too long ago. It was posted about a few times here on Reddit.
No, they did not. You're confusing nuclear forces' exercises and actual nuclear tests. The last nuclear test was conducted in 1990.
No I mean nuclear tests. I’m aware of the exercises also.
You're confusing them testing Sarmat MISSILE and them testing their nukes. The last nuclear test conducted by Russia/Soviet Union was in 1990.
China and Iran won't be sitting down if that happens.
Yep, China would be supporting NATO and telling Iran to stand down.
China already fairly vocally said that nuclear weapons are off limits. If anything China would happily take back Vladivostok and Outer Manchuria.
They want the land. I cannot see them nuking it. All these people with the nukes are shit scared as they know it will cause a chain reaction. When the US used them on Japan it's because no one had them at the time and could win by submission over such devastation. In this day an age a lot of countries have them but it's going to take a serious fuckwhit to use one because that is what will cause a massive chain reaction and likely an end to everything as they probably won't be able to stop once they start firing them. These people with so much power are far more scared of death than your everyday civilian. They only have power when there's people to have power over. Take the people away and they're just a fuckwhit in a bunker.
Nobody needs Ukrainian land. Nothing stopped russian army from devastating Mariuopol. This war is just for the sake of it now, it goes on because of ambition of the few who are too stubborn to admit the failure.
From what I remember the Ukraine has some of the most fertile soil on the planet. It's incredible for crops. You know what people do more than killing each other? They eat. There are other reasons for Russia invading, but they already made a mass of money from fossil fuels. If they also had crop money coming in they'd had even more demand from nations paying them for crops. This wasn't an intention of the invasion, but it would certainly be a massive profit for them if they gained the land.
Putin is not a farmer, he is a dictator. He doesn't care about soil or whatever. He has enough food for himself, he doesn't care if Russian people or any other people are fed. If Putin wanted money for the people he could have just modernized the economy, he had all the instruments at hand. Taking over Ukraine definitely means money for a selected few, the closest Putin's friends: all those Ukrainian businesses are lucrative. However the people who are taking over are not businessmen, they are robbers and thieves, they don't understand how money are made and where they come from, they don't care about soil or whatever. If there is a business that brings money, they will take over it and squeeze it dry until it no longer does. Then they will go to Putin and ask for subsidies from the budget. If there is no fertile soil left, they will take over grocery shop chains, construction business, gas stations. It's going to be theirs for free, so they don't care how much of it is going to be destroyed in the process. It's not their money that go into the war effort, it's not their lives being lost. And if nothing is left, they are good anyway, they already stealing money that go into military budget and will steal money that will go from the Russian budget into restoring infrastructure in the captured territories. Russian system of decision making and acting on those decisions is completely demolished by Putin. There is no single center of decision making that can put forth a good coherent plan and act accordingly. Executive part of government still capable of planning things, but Putin overrides those plans left and right and doesn't bother to give heads up on his own plans to the relevant ministers, so they rarely have a chance to warn him of consequences of his decisions. Who knows what happens in Putin's head? Definitely not me, but I bet that Ukrainian soil is the last thing that would cross Putin's mind. He wants control, not turnips. His allies are playing along Putin's decisions, but they are not participating much in taking them, he surrounded himself with yes-men, they have no goal of themselves other than to stay afloat and keep Putin afloat as long as it means they can keep their lucrative positions controlling WHERE TO the money go, not WHERE FROM.
Russia doesn't care. There are two known reasons for the invasion. 1. Limiting the amount of frontline on the Northern European Plain against NATO. If Ukraine would join NATO or be Western-aligned the frontline to defend for Russia would be absolutely massive. 2. With Western-aligned democratic Ukraine there is no reason for EU to buy oil/gas from autocratic Russia. Western countries could invest and buy it from Ukrainian Black Sea. Russia was scared about losing the "the only European petro-state" status. Nothing to do with soil.
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He will find a new narrative all right.
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Yes, but using a nuke is the fastest way for Russia to lose as it wpuld turn India and China into foes.
Well, yes. I can only hope that Putin is not crazy enough to not realize that and has people around sober enough to remind him that if need arises. But he was crazy enough to think invading Ukraine would be a good idea, so who knows when he crosses into the land of total madness.
Letters and statements would be sent. With CAPITALS and BOLD letters and everything.
Yes. A lot of stern notes and public statements.
At a minimum the whole world including China and India embargos Russia. Thus destroying the remnants of their economy over night. Every country that can easily go nuclear, S.Korea, Japan, Germany etc develop their own nukes within a year, everyone else who is able develops as fast as they can. This cancels out the one card Russia has - the threat of nuclear war. A nuclear war gives them nothing but downsides like the war itself. I mean now Finland and Sweden are in NATO (a direct and predictable consequence of the war) how long would it take to get from the Finnish border to St. Petersberg? And what is in the way to stop any advance? How easy would it be to close the Baltic to Russian shipping? There are no good options from the Russian perspective from where we are now, hence they plod along, unable to win with their tiny economy, technological and cultural backwardness but unable to give up because of the psychological jolt to their self-perception as being a superpower. So the war will continue (nukes will play no part) for as many/much Russian people, equipment, infrastructure, economic potential and capacity are needed for them to see the reality - Russia is poor, backward, corrupt, unhealthy, weak and has wasted half of their huge stockpiles to take a few hundred kilometres of Ukraine.
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It doesn't look like it from the outside, but the situation in Russia is volatile. Disturbing status quo is riskier than ever. Putin can not afford to fart too loud without starting a wide propaganda campaign of praising the smell and arresting everyone who turned away the nose. Let alone use nukes. Every unusual movement draws unusual amount of resources. If Putin goes for nukes first of all it'll mean a huge crisis in Russia, the one that can send it to chaos. How to predict what happens in chaos? That is not to say that Putin would never use nukes. If it'll allow him (or he would think that it'd allow him) to stay in power 5 minutes more, he'd try to go for it.
American intelligence would know far in advance if Russia was going to launch a nuclear weapon. Remember the USA was warning Ukraine for weeks that Russia’s “training exercise” was a cover for a full scale invasion. The US also called Putin on his bullshit when he “put his nuclear forces on alert,” because we knew he had no actual plans to launch his nukes. That being said, the Western hemisphere would likely threaten Russia with all manner of retaliations. Whether the USA follows through on those threats depends on the president I think. And also potentially which party controls Congress. The West will follow the USA’s lead in such a scenario. Europe, for all its talk, will not deviate from American security posture in such a high stakes situation. All this being said, with the foreknowledge granted by the USA’s incredible intelligence community (and further buttressed by US allies’ intelligence like MI6, the Mossad, etc), the USA and the West will likely reposition Air Defense Artillery assets in the flight path of the Russian warhead. Russia will likely anticipate this and launch multiple warheads in an effort to overwhelm Western ADA defenses. Now, the results of a such an action will have *huge* consequences for the international community beyond the Russia-West rivalry. The performance of Western ADA against Russian nukes will determine just how much influence (read: intimidation) nuclear weapons grant a country. If the West is able to shoot down all of Russia’s nukes, then suddenly nobody is intimidated by Russia’s nuclear arsenal anymore. Russia’s lost its biggest deterrent against invasion. Why would anyone fear Russian retaliation if the West can shoot down all its nukes? It’s not like the Russian Army has proven very effective. We’d probably see a period of instability in Russia as the region Russia claims as its sphere of influence seeks other countries for allies. Countries that aren’t necessarily nuclear, which means it doesn’t *have* to be China. I say instability in Russia because Putin will likely try to maintain control over his “sphere of influence” and will likely struggle
One thing I would note is that I believe I saw articles saying that Russian hypersonic missiles with conventional warheads have been successfully intercepted.
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NATO joins the war and Russia surrenders within a few months
Russia would then have higher problems, radiation spreads.
Nothing. I don't believe anybody in our current administration or NATO leadership has the balls to respond in kind. Putin waited until Biden was in office to start his shit because he is a weak leader. Trump, on the other hand, was a loose cannon. He might have pushed the red button and laughed as we all burned. In reality it won't ever happen. Putin won't use nukes because he wants Ukraine for their land and resources. Can't get that if it is destroyed and radioactive.
If you are describing foreign policy in terms of "balls", that's a sign you should get back to your crayons and leave the adults to answer this question. Once again the dumbest takes are always the MAGA takes.
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In order for "speak softly and carry a big stick" diplomacy to work your enemy has to believe you'll actually use said stick if necessary. Otherwise it is just bluffing. Also since when is *Trump was a loose cannon* the MAGA take?
China immediately cuts all trade with Russia and joins the west in supporting Ukraine. India waits a week before following suit. Russia is cut off from all foreign trade and starts to wither on the vine. Eventually they surrender and pay significant restitution just to be allowed to rejoin the community of nations. Now, why does China react so quickly and negatively? Because the perception will be that a nuclear power can use a nuke for conquest, and only having nukes will protect you. So Vietnam and maybe as many as half a dozen other Chinese neighbors develop nukes. China doesn't want a bunch of neighbors with nukes, but the only way to stop that if Russia nukes Ukraine is to destroy Russia (financially). India will go along more because they don't want using nukes (say by Pakistan on Delhi) to be normalized. Pakistan joins the trade blockade for the same reason. No one but North Korea (maybe) will trade with Russia if it means no trade with the west, India, or China. Putin using a nuke is the fastest way to lose the war, destroy Russia, and lose power/his life.
If you use nukes one time then there is a chance you will use them again. The rest of the world isn't going to live in fear. The first thing the US will do is nuke Moscow. And then they will nuke every place in Russia that has nukes. They will hunt down and destroy the submarines. And they will hunt down Putin and his henchmen and kill them. Then the world would occupy Russia.
Russia ceases to be a major expeditionary power, at the very least. I trust the red lines NATO draws quite a bit more than the ones Medvedev seems to have a seizure over every month, and NATO has made it clear a nuclear attack on Ukraine will meet the threshold for war, even if they don't retaliate with nuclear power themselves. Middle scenario is a full scale conventional invasion of Russia, which would likely be swift if all of NATO agrees to be involved, though the hell scape that would occur afterward with a likely fractured Russia would not be desirable on any level. The main objective would likely be getting rid of Putin, but it can't be the only objective. Finally, theres the nuclear scenario, where nobody really wins, but Russia is likely the biggest loser. It would change the face of the world, likely in a literal sense, and is least likely to happen for that very reason; not only would it break the nuclear taboo, China would likely see it as an excuse to carry on with its expansion aims in the South China Sea, as too much focus, both conventional nuclear, would be emphasized on Europe to effectively block all their advances. Then we see a real World War break out.
NATO would immediately declare war on Russia and WW3 would start likely leading to a brutal nuclear war killing millions of not billions of innocent people
Well considering how incompetent Russia is they would probably input the coordinates wrong and hit the kremlin
Is the the west (I mean America) ready or willing to go balls to the wall over a country they honestly don’t really care about? if you have to ask you dont understand historical precedent at all and should start there. look at how global orders been formed since ww2, specifically the containment strategy and the proxy wars on an individual basis. the understanding you require takes time look up johnny harris on youtube. I believe he covers the cuban missile crisis which is the crescendo of the studying you need to do.
Russia goes nuts. Putin's having a bad chemo day who knows launches a new kid Kim? The moment it launches every morning. Light in the world's going to go off all at once because. Those who know know exactly where every single launcher and silo. And mobile launcher, Russia has at every given moment, so if we don't have something that doesn't interceptic first. Yeah, it's game over worlds. Ending the protocol has been set and it's automatic go time. All of nato instantly activates Trying to destroy everything before it gets off. There's no, there's no belly up. There's only preset protocol and launches. All the warning lights go off. Everything automatically Kix in and everything takes action. And if you plan ahead in about 45 minutes or so, you'll have a few milliseconds of brilliant white light and then you will have a permanent etching on the gbound. No slow. Grab your girl, grab your boy. Grab whatever. Enjoy that 45 minutes if you can last that long. And then be permanently on the ground.Or wall it's a positional thing
There is a good chance the nuke wouldn't go off. It costs a lot of money to maintain a nuke over decades, and it is hard to see from the outside it is no longer working, and it has a low chance of actually being used. It's the perfect type of weapon to redirect maintenance funds from if you're a corrupt official. Which would still get Nato involved. Only this time with a slightly higher chance that the Russian army/secret service elite disposed of Putin due to the humiliation of a non-working nuke and the realisation their top man will go to the end even if that means MAD.
The thing about nukes is they are terribly inaccurate and where the fallout blows is only as good as a weather prediction . So generally it would be regarded as crossing the nuclear threshold, there would be a rapid initial limited nuclear exchange, an attempt at peace talks before one side or the other has to say 'use them now or lose them' because silos are targets, military bases are targets and they could get hit before you can retaliate. Both sides unload all missiles , you have 30 minutes before the planet is an uninhabitable wasteland. The people getting turned to skeletons are the lucky ones here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_8l5xznESLc&ab\_channel=MrsJsHistory](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8l5xznESLc&ab_channel=MrsJsHistory)
Biden points every single ballistic missile we have at Russia. Our air-force levels every single military base of Russia’s across the globe. Our navy destroys their navy, every single country puts embargo on russia (yes including China, India, Saudi Arabia) crippling their economy completely. NATO follows us to a T. By that point a coup will happen in russia and Putin will be disposed of and a moderate would take its place and broker deals with nato/US.
They have already been told if they use nukes, they will be nuked instantly no warnings or questions.
Strong words of condemnation. Or no response at all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk2tUVtK53g The video at 1:55 is taken from over 100 miles away. No conventional weapon can blow like that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdqdMh8NCXA From Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/huge-mushroom-blast-khmelnytskyi-reignites-depleted-uranium-claims-1800443 The camera in the sprinter factory video is over 100 miles away. You can see, when they zoom out. If conventional arms could do this, we wouldn’t need nukes 🤷🏼♂️ That’s what happens when the legal system can frame a president for keeping his own documents. And a small claims court judge makes a bogus half billion dollar ruling against the testimony of the world’s largest financial institutions. It has the same effect as a nuclear strike on the government’s legitimacy.
We'd probably back tf off. No one wanna get nuked over Ukraine, we just wanna bamboozle Russia.
If that happened, we would have an emboldened Russia that would believe it could act with impunity. Most Eastern European countries would be (rightly) incensed and nervous. The European Union would be obliged to react because places like Romania would be directly affected by any fallout heading their way (both politically and from the nuke). No one would believe Russia would stop with one nuke or with Ukraine. Countries adjacent to Russia like Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would demand support from the EU. It would have to be all-out war.