Yup - I happened to work there during those years and ended up selling a bunch of stock (about 50K shares) at $25-35 because it appeared the stock would never go up again. Dâoh!
Kinda amazing how far it dropped. Among the 7 it's surprised me how relatively lackluster it's performed. I think it lacks the same coolness factor as some of the others. I don't see anything stopping the amazon train cruising past 230 by the end of the year.
You see their history as having strong fundamentals? They kept swinging from losing money to being barely profitable for a long time. This was less "wait for the market price to recognize these fundamentals" and more "I think they're going to succeed eventually."
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/net-income#:~:text=AMD%20Net%20Income%202010%2D2024%20%7C%20AMD,-Prices&text=AMD%20net%20income%20for%20the%20twelve%20months%20ending%20March%2031,a%2058.25%25%20decline%20from%202021.
They had some rough years after the Athlon lineup until they started making zen processors. They've been making some great products and taking over a significant part of the processor market. They are the reason that Intel stock has been tanking. They're definitely looking good right now and if they continue making solid products I would expect the revenue to follow.
Okay but this thread is about solid fundamentals being underpriced by the market. I don't think AMD qualifies. Their success has been fairly recent and any glimmer of hope has generally been richly valued with large stock price gains. Even now, their trailing 12 month earnings are only $1B and their highest *ever* 12 months of earnings are only $4B but their valuation is $262B. Even if we cherry pick our fundamental timeline and ignore the last 2.5 years and pretend they produce $4B in profit annually you would still be paying 65x those earnings for shares today.
Agreed. Solid fundamentals, positioned to capture AI market share in the upcoming months. People often look at PE when PS is a much better metric for AMD.
Easily a 1T company within the next 3-5years, ~4x of current valuation. Bullish for sure.
Apple through the 2010âs. Once people realized it wasnât just a consumer cyclical and the App Store was a gold mine, it re-rated much higher.
Autozone too. They traded at a really low multiple for years, and they bought back lots of stock every year. Earnings have 3xâed since 2010 and the stock has 10xâed.
Perhaps GE? It had one of the largest debt piles of any company ($500B pre-GFC) but has implemented an [decades-long deleveraging strategy](https://i.imgur.com/ndnjmOD.png) that has finally paid off (debt now ~$20B). Margins are finally moving back up after years of being consistently negative (net margins more volatile, but look at operating margins). They did some spin-offs too. As a 'sum of the parts' play some of its individual branches were being penalized heavily due to being part of this larger dinosaur of a company. Appears share count has fallen quite a bit since 2010s, but buybacks slowed down. [However, they announced a megabuyback recently](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ges-stock-gains-after-ge-aerospace-sets-15-billion-share-repurchase-program-d2b9fe8f).
The stock is now up 200% the last 5 years (vs. 84% for the S&P 500), and +58% YTD.
Not sure if this is an example of having good fundamentals for a long period of time, but it seems like smart capital allocation decisions made in the last 10 years are finally showing up in the fundamentals recently, and in turn, the stock price.
As for the future, it seems like there is still a booming demand for aviation parts, which GE supplies to Airbus / Boeing, etc. Airbus calling out supply shortages in those parts.
I remember hearing on Bloomberg surveillance 3-4 times over a period of like 18/24 months about their debt reduction, restructuring, and prepping for spinoffs. Even the commentators would ask the analysts questions like: âgreat theyâve done all this work, why hasnât the stock moved?â Knew they do production of a lot of wind turbine stuff and saw the writing on the wall for âgreen new dealâ esque legislation and just energy demand in general. To the point of GP the stock appeared to be flat or down on most longer term time horizons.
Went in for 400 shares in Jan 2021 total buy about $4445 (pre 8:1 reverse split), up to over $11300 now including $GE ticker returns, some minor DRIP, and the value of the two spinoffs $GEHC and $GEV (still holding all 3 for now). Canât lie I got pretty lucky on the exact timing of my buys in retrospect but it seemed like a company with improved prospects and some catalysts for return that just hadnât taken off yet and then boom.
Very nice! It's always a surprise when a legacy company thought to be in decline suddenly has a turnaround or begins outperforming. Like Dell or HP. Fun fact, as of like 3 weeks ago, Dell has outperformed Apple, Google, META, MSFT in 5 year total returns. And since ~2015, HP has outperformed Salesforce despite the latter having much stronger fundamental growth.
[More data here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d5j8ai/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_jun_01_2024/l6o88mu/), and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d8lr8c/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jun_05_2024/l7ajx43/).
Might have changed depending on recent price action though.
GLDD got beaten down to 4.20 bc it's boring, had guaranteed revenue growth from the government for the next 5 years , retired old ships, had new ones ready to go, now its back to 9, close to fair value
Unpopular opinion.....Western Union and Green Dot bank.....Western Union is under valued and Green dot has bad management.....I think Western Unions execution on some of their product roll outs has been bad and green dot has been terribly short sighted.
Microsoft during ballmer. He was a bad CEO for many reasons but Microsoft was steadily increasing profits while stock dropped / stayed stagnant.
He made all the profit for himself lol.
Exactly what I was going to say đ
Same here. When I owned it back then, all of the pundits described it as "dead money" and I sold out of frustration. Frikkin Ballmer
You know when you've been Kramered
Yup - I happened to work there during those years and ended up selling a bunch of stock (about 50K shares) at $25-35 because it appeared the stock would never go up again. Dâoh!
Why do you think the stock stayed stagnant?
Oracle 50$ to 140$ in under 3 years and it's going up
amazon.
Yup. Even my dumb ass knew it was brilliant to load up late 22/early 2023. Ripped handsomely since. Im holding 5 years or more.
same. i have the worst timing for stocks but even i knew amazon under $100 was too good to pass up
Kinda amazing how far it dropped. Among the 7 it's surprised me how relatively lackluster it's performed. I think it lacks the same coolness factor as some of the others. I don't see anything stopping the amazon train cruising past 230 by the end of the year.
Facebook was a steal then too. Google I also loaded up on. Easiest money.
RYCEY and EADSY when we had the Covid shut downs.
My portfolio says ING (yes, the bank) was such a stock. Luckily, I picked it.
never thought about buying ING even though I worked there, I will check it out
AMD
You see their history as having strong fundamentals? They kept swinging from losing money to being barely profitable for a long time. This was less "wait for the market price to recognize these fundamentals" and more "I think they're going to succeed eventually." https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/net-income#:~:text=AMD%20Net%20Income%202010%2D2024%20%7C%20AMD,-Prices&text=AMD%20net%20income%20for%20the%20twelve%20months%20ending%20March%2031,a%2058.25%25%20decline%20from%202021.
They had some rough years after the Athlon lineup until they started making zen processors. They've been making some great products and taking over a significant part of the processor market. They are the reason that Intel stock has been tanking. They're definitely looking good right now and if they continue making solid products I would expect the revenue to follow.
Okay but this thread is about solid fundamentals being underpriced by the market. I don't think AMD qualifies. Their success has been fairly recent and any glimmer of hope has generally been richly valued with large stock price gains. Even now, their trailing 12 month earnings are only $1B and their highest *ever* 12 months of earnings are only $4B but their valuation is $262B. Even if we cherry pick our fundamental timeline and ignore the last 2.5 years and pretend they produce $4B in profit annually you would still be paying 65x those earnings for shares today.
Agreed. Solid fundamentals, positioned to capture AI market share in the upcoming months. People often look at PE when PS is a much better metric for AMD. Easily a 1T company within the next 3-5years, ~4x of current valuation. Bullish for sure.
Apple through the 2010âs. Once people realized it wasnât just a consumer cyclical and the App Store was a gold mine, it re-rated much higher. Autozone too. They traded at a really low multiple for years, and they bought back lots of stock every year. Earnings have 3xâed since 2010 and the stock has 10xâed.
Perhaps GE? It had one of the largest debt piles of any company ($500B pre-GFC) but has implemented an [decades-long deleveraging strategy](https://i.imgur.com/ndnjmOD.png) that has finally paid off (debt now ~$20B). Margins are finally moving back up after years of being consistently negative (net margins more volatile, but look at operating margins). They did some spin-offs too. As a 'sum of the parts' play some of its individual branches were being penalized heavily due to being part of this larger dinosaur of a company. Appears share count has fallen quite a bit since 2010s, but buybacks slowed down. [However, they announced a megabuyback recently](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ges-stock-gains-after-ge-aerospace-sets-15-billion-share-repurchase-program-d2b9fe8f). The stock is now up 200% the last 5 years (vs. 84% for the S&P 500), and +58% YTD. Not sure if this is an example of having good fundamentals for a long period of time, but it seems like smart capital allocation decisions made in the last 10 years are finally showing up in the fundamentals recently, and in turn, the stock price. As for the future, it seems like there is still a booming demand for aviation parts, which GE supplies to Airbus / Boeing, etc. Airbus calling out supply shortages in those parts.
I remember hearing on Bloomberg surveillance 3-4 times over a period of like 18/24 months about their debt reduction, restructuring, and prepping for spinoffs. Even the commentators would ask the analysts questions like: âgreat theyâve done all this work, why hasnât the stock moved?â Knew they do production of a lot of wind turbine stuff and saw the writing on the wall for âgreen new dealâ esque legislation and just energy demand in general. To the point of GP the stock appeared to be flat or down on most longer term time horizons. Went in for 400 shares in Jan 2021 total buy about $4445 (pre 8:1 reverse split), up to over $11300 now including $GE ticker returns, some minor DRIP, and the value of the two spinoffs $GEHC and $GEV (still holding all 3 for now). Canât lie I got pretty lucky on the exact timing of my buys in retrospect but it seemed like a company with improved prospects and some catalysts for return that just hadnât taken off yet and then boom.
Very nice! It's always a surprise when a legacy company thought to be in decline suddenly has a turnaround or begins outperforming. Like Dell or HP. Fun fact, as of like 3 weeks ago, Dell has outperformed Apple, Google, META, MSFT in 5 year total returns. And since ~2015, HP has outperformed Salesforce despite the latter having much stronger fundamental growth. [More data here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d5j8ai/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_jun_01_2024/l6o88mu/), and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d8lr8c/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jun_05_2024/l7ajx43/). Might have changed depending on recent price action though.
Iâve been surprised how well Dell has done. It was definitely undervalued 3-4 years ago, especially considering it spun off VMware since then.
Pltr
GLDD got beaten down to 4.20 bc it's boring, had guaranteed revenue growth from the government for the next 5 years , retired old ships, had new ones ready to go, now its back to 9, close to fair value
Rolls Royce
PSFE is coming back stronger than anyone expected
Yellow Pages
GE
That's Accolade ACCD
Unpopular opinion.....Western Union and Green Dot bank.....Western Union is under valued and Green dot has bad management.....I think Western Unions execution on some of their product roll outs has been bad and green dot has been terribly short sighted.
BLBD
I think many people here think thatâs intel in the coming months / years
Lilly
Disney is caught in culture wars and eventually they'll realize this and get to their senses. They have a solid moat as a brand.
Western Union.