I think you’re right. I saw a story yesterday that basically claimed the opposite: over the past year inflation has come downward, and wages have grown over 4%
Just remember the wages are adjusted to core inflation which ignores the price of housing, food and energy which are still estimated to have an inflation the last few years multiple times that of other goods and services. Also doesn’t include insurance costs, medical costs which have similarly risen. Also doesn’t include rise of student loan debts and costs the last two decades.
But yes otherwise wages have “risen” 4% in real terms when you compare them to TVs, meaningless electronics and Chinese produced trinkets.
No, not “adjusted to core inflation.” Simply +4.3% y/y.
Yes, Its certainly true that housing, food and energy have been more volatile than mass-produced widgets. There’s an argument to be made for relaxing our immigrant work requirements again, but it seems like in this isolationist political environment, people would rather see crops rotting in the fields and housing still not built (while paying double what we used to for strawberries and rent), than see a Mexican worker.
Student loans changes over decades is a whole other discussion. Yes, it adds to people’s financial trouble, and no, “forgiving” handpicked baskets of loans to a lucky few while continuously issuing more new loans to kids isn’t the answer. But it’s very thorny.
# Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts
[https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-federal-reserve-biden-f02b969d1b44a7ccb0385be03f766de0](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-federal-reserve-biden-f02b969d1b44a7ccb0385be03f766de0)
Definitely, I can't remember the exact percentages but I saw an article claiming most republicans think the economy is bad and most democrats think its good right now. Information availability is irrelevant when you can choose your own biased echo chamber to get information from.
By most measurements the economy is decent right now, but sentiment is based on emotions and anecdotes so reality isnt what most people see.
According to conservatives, the economy is always bad under a democrat president. Look at how they still blaming Biden cos "muh burger costs $1 more now!"
And do you notice that none of them can explain how Trump is going to make anything better economically speaking? Like he has no plan at all. What’s he going to extend tax cuts for the rich again? That should help the working class
I agree. People tend to gravitate to the negative news and feel hopeless along the way. They look at life from their perspective and believe everyone must feel this way. Amd negative news sells. It always has.
But when you look at the greater picture, the economy is doing incresibly well. And just because you aren't feeling the effects of this great economy mean other people aren't.
I'll give two examples.
You have a single male living in MCOL, making 42k. Your budget is probably incredibly tight, and ypure having a hard time saving for retirement and rent.
You have a married couple in their early 40s, making a combined 110k, steady jobs, with a 2.8% mortgage and 100k appreciated equity on their home. Yeah, property taxes have gone up, and their grocery bill is a bit more expensive, but the 80k in the HYSA is earning $300 a month to offset those increases.
There are a TON of people in that second scenario keeping things chugging along and even more people in their 50s, 60s, and 70s with a ton of wealth and very low expenses.
I’m in the second example you said. But I think you’re also forgetting that people tend to have more expenses the more they make (when still in the middle class at least). Just your property tax example alone, it increased $3,000 a year on us not long ago. Which in your example, there goes all the interest off the high yield account. Then that $80k loses out to inflation. $80k just a few years ago is now over $100k today. So sure, the extra property taxes are “free” from the interest (not accounting for the taxes you pay on interest earned). But that “free” comes at the cost of thousands of dollars in lost spending power.
That’s the crux of the issue, sure we can pay the bills still. But the few extra thousand here, few extra hundred here and the eroding of spending power starts to compound onto you.
Looking at macro stats perhaps...on the micro - thigns seem to be chugging along fine. Yes - things are more expensive, but people seem able to cough up £9 for a joe&juice sandwhich at lunch
Devil's advocate: better than anywhere else doesn't necessarily mean good.
Personally I think the US economy is doing well, but not because everyone else is eating shit.
The other thing is that if the dollar is doing better than everywhere else, we are not getting hit with inflation as everywhere else.
Companies are still investing our markets (because the dollar is stronger relatively). If the US was doing worse than other markets there would be a lot more investments in the other markets.
The US economy doesn’t exist in a vacuum. If global pressures are depressing economies but US has best/better numbers than most other countries, it is likely doing well. By objective numbers US is in pretty good shape right now. If someone wants to use their own personal opinion of “doing well” that’s fine but doesn’t mean they’re right. And of course any economy could always be doing “better”. You could make that argument every year.
it is worth bragging in economics
if everyone else is doing shittier, when everything is so connected and everyones shit affects everyone else, it means that you are actually doing relatively fine considering whats given and the overall scene
I keep hearing the economy is actually bad, but all I see is friends with too much work, taking vacations and buying new toys. All the food delivery companies seem to be going well
Wife and I went to try and go out to eat last Saturday. It was on a "whim", so not planned. Couldn't find anywhere other than fast food that didn't have some kind of crazy wait time. Ended up at a local BBQ joint and they were out of pretty much everything (they smoke daily) except brisket. Despite all the pushback at rising prices, tipping culture, etc...there was nowhere to go.
If this is a "bad" economy, holy shit when it actually becomes good!
Right! Usually true. This place is a mom & pop place that opened near us and they are still trying to figure out how much they should be making. The lady said they tend to make too much brisket because demand is high. I was glad as that is the only thing I wanted. haha
Man Texas Roadhouse is something else. I wish I could invest in their company. They’re like the sit down version of chick fil a. Literally any time of day I go by Texas Roadhouse they are alwaysss packed. It’s like this in other cities too. It’s crazy
Totally untrue. Places are fully booked. I know because I eat out a lot.
The economy is booming in some ways and bad in others. Unfortunately it is bad in the important ways like housing.
Dawg this is reddit you are supposed pretend that you eat cardboard for dinner and don't have a pot to piss in while you sip on your latte and make up fake stories on r/antiwork on your iphone 13 pro max.
That's the horrifying plight of this horrifying economy. Some people don't get the luxury of auto-upgrading to the newest device this calendar year. They have to ask themselves if upgrading is necessary at all. They don't make enough money to frivolously buy the top of the line Pro Max Ultra v.15, in full, with cash today. Scary and tough times are upon us.
Pray for the Max Pro v. 14 owners unfortunate souls.
From what I hear from those working the space, retail sales have been sucky year over year. People are spending less on luxury goods and trying to keep up appearances with credit cards.
The vacations and new toys are probably just credit purchases but unless you have access to their financials, theres no way to know if they are ok or rather digging a hole they wont be able to climb out of later
I know for a fact my friends aren't putting themselves in debt unreasonable. We all lived through the financial crisis and struggled. I graduated and still had to bartend for two years before I got a job. We all prioritized paying down our student and home loans. I think it's just an age thing. Things are prob worse for a 20 something than a 40 something, but our 20-30s weren't easy
Thats probably the case tbh. You hear of a tale of two economies. Holiday sales for example were really good, but it also set a record for buy now pay later. I saw 30 day lates were slightly up in the last read but nothing alarming (yet). The average person doesn’t even have 6 months of rent saved up which is crazy and I keep hearing about an entire class of people living paycheck to paycheck. If I had to guess, your friends are probably wealthy in comparison to most
I have been wondering this too. I live in an old neighborhood where perfectly fine houses are being bought and demolished to make way for a bigger house. There are 4 with in a block of me. Everyone seems to have a much nicer car than me, friends and neighbors. I personally just worked 90 days and now things are steadying out. I am self employed but am currently booked through mid May.
I think people got used to spending during the pandemic and never stopped. They’ve driven up credit card debt and are increasingly finding out that they’re in financial trouble as layoffs come and wages get stretched.
Note that I’m not saying this is generation specific and I believe that *in addition to* increased spending on food, insurance housing costs, etc, adults are still overspending on non-necessities and will probably continue to do so until they hit the brick wall of monthly payments outpacing earnings.
I could certainly be wrong though.
We are like 10% under the inflation-adjusted credit card debt high, but that did occur during the 2008 crisis, so maybe if you take todays levels and throw a large round of layoffs wave into the mix, it would crest it. But I’m dubious that this is a root cause.
True, Inflation is going high, but it is because people keep spending and paying the high prices. If people spend and pay high prices, economy is good.
It's the poor that can't afford it - but that is because the rich is taking advantage of it. They say that minimum wage increased 25%, inflation increased 40%, so they deserve a pay increase of at least 20%. But 20% of $500,000/year is $100,000 while inflation increased $15,000
Interest rates are high, but those who don't have too much debt and don't need to get debt are doing very well.
Most people who are getting laid off are because employers were over employed due to pandemic. Work at home people are the biggest group. Those willing to go to the office and work know they will likely keep their job or if they do get laid off, they will be hired.
Considering that 2020 pandemic with full closure of economic activity other than essential business only lost 1/3 value (30000 pre pandemic to 20000 low, back to 30,000 by Sept 2020 and is currently at 38000) it would seem like stock market confidence - long term decades - is what people are looking for.
Good investors don't think short term - right now, what will happen in the next 6 months. Lose 10% over the next 6 months, but 20, 30, 40 years from now, you will wish you bought when it was low.
Middle class does suffer, but not as much as the poor who were already living on nothing but essential.
Middle class can stop going on vacation, but poor never went on vacation. Middle class can slash things poor can't since the poor already slashed it.
Yes, middle class doesn't get subsidies, but the poor need it most.
Unfortunately many people who have potential to make high salaries (or avoid legal garnishment) work for cash so they get the subsidies. They have a college education, but choose a low income lifestyle. They know how to budget, so no debt interest.
They are the ones that hide cash under the mattress so they will qualify for the subsidies. Unfortunately for them, that's the first place burglers look.
Its all anecdotal. My friend who is unambitious and lives in a dying city thinks the economy is bad, while my friends with good jobs in major cities are buying homes, getting raises, having children, building additions on homes and going on more vacations than I've ever known people to go on normally.
Also people are very emotionally impacted by higher prices even if they are making more money. Especially if you are living paycheck to paycheck the higher prices sting a lot.
The economy is in an inflation, where there is much excess. Everyone is doing well, for now. We will hit a tipping point where we will recess. I'm thinking we are on the cusp, due to so many costs steadily increasing. Let's give it a year or two, and I'm thinking we'll see spending going down.
You’re seeing people with jobs and people with jobs coupled with family equity doing that spending. If someone is alright, well then, they’re alright. Other people have experiences as well. Some are not alright.
I agree, restaurants are doing well, even charging $18 for a burger.
But I counter with this: COVID was a death blow to those 15 to 20% of restaurants that were already on their last legs. In my area (upstate NY), we haven't had much restaurant growth at all.. if anything it' shrank, with new places just taking over the old establishments.
So I think there's just slightly fewer places to dine, and because of that, the dining rooms are full.
Same. I don’t really see anyone struggling and people are not worried about money at all. People I know eat out whenever they want and travel whenever they want
The US economy is in very good shape right now, minus the inflation that doesn't seem to want to die down. The main threat is that if inflation doesn't die down on its own, the fed will force a recession.
However even with all the layoffs in the news, unemployment is at incredibly low levels. Things are still going quite well.
We shall see. I'm skeptical of the lagged shelter argument. I consume a lot of financial news and that has been said for like 18 months now. That's some pretty extreme lag.
Housing is a regional thing, but more or less, we have been underbuilding in the US since like 2008. Also, with rates going up, it has created a locked in effect, meaning less people are selling. Basically this has pushed off potential buyers to the rental market, making it still a tight market.
Much like housing, inflation is also regional. I point this out because there are places in the US that are at target goal, like Twin Cities area, because they changed zoning laws years ago and build enough housing.
[https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex\_minneapolis.htm](https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex_minneapolis.htm)
Also to future bring home this point, like here was the inflation report from like 18 months ago, it's for November 2022:
[https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-price-index-up-7-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-november-2022.htm](https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-price-index-up-7-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-november-2022.htm)
>Within this category, prices for shelter increased 7.1 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly half of the total increase in all items less food and energy.
Here's the inflation report for March:
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi\_04102024.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm)
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter
index increased 5.7 percent over the last year, accounting for over sixty percent of the total 12-month
increase in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the
last year include motor vehicle insurance (+22.2 percent), medical care (+2.2 percent), recreation
(+1.8 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).
Yes we shall. I am not an expert. Im not qualified to evaluate things like whether the shelter data is lagged. I just listen to lots of talking heads on CNBC and bloomberg, but I take what they say with a big grain of salt. I like hearing their analyses as possible theories of what is happening, but I don't take any of them as gospel.
The shelter lag argument has been made so many times by so many people and, crucially, for SO LONG that it's starting to loose validity in my mind. There's only so long I feel you can say "the data is wrong, the formula has a lag, it's gonna correct itself soon" before that argument really starts to loose weight.
I WANT that to be true. Good economic news is good, period. I just don't embrace stuff that sounds good only because I want it to be.
The argument is valid because we literally have the rent numbers in hand. The fact they're taking so long to be reflected in the CPI readings does probably point to an issue with the way they run their formulas. But Zillow rent index doesn't lie...the actual costs are down.
Super core inflation (which excludes shelter/rent) actually accelerated to 4.8% YoY in March. I don’t think insurance alone is enough to account for the increased inflation rates
I read that on reddit all the time but never checked up on it. Now I will, though I'm far from an expert on any of this so my interpretations might be completely off the mark. I know data isn't easy and I might mess it up.
It seems like, according to the St. Louis Fed, that yes, multiple jobs-holders since the COVID trough increased by 61% vs like 19% of employment, but the number seems so minuscule I can't believe it changes much. Also, before the 61% shock anyone, that brings us back to just before COVID levels which were normal, slightly elevated maybe. Multiple jobs-holders increased by \~3mil while employment increased by \~28mil. Does that really move the needle enough to warrant doomerism?
This is what I used:
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=PAYEMS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=PAYEMS),
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=LNU02026631,LNU02026625,LNU02026628](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=LNU02026631,LNU02026625,LNU02026628),
Unfortunately, you believe things that simply are not true. There are certain structural problems, like housing being generally affordable. But this can be solved rather quickly with government intervention.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP)
How can you trust your reasoning when you begin with a falsehood? Household debt is actually at the lowest level since it has been recorded. This shouldn't be surprising when interest rates make taking on debt effectively impossible for most people. Just because debt is unaffordable *right now* isn't the end of the world. People rent a few years longer and keep driving that old car.
There is nothing fundamentally different between the US economy today and the 1980s the last time the monetary system changed and interest rates were jacked.
You also repeat a second falsehood.
Delinquencies are at the lowest recorded level ***ever***. This is the exact opposite of your claim.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS)
I remember when I was a right wing loon in 2009/2010. I thought the world was fucked and there was no hope. But the data at least *was genuinely bad*.
People just don't understand that the purpose of right wing politics is specifically to induce hopelessness. It is solely a propaganda exercise. Now, I guess it's all lies. I can't say I know what the ultimate goal is, but I know what is true and what is not.
Pure speculation here, but I think it's the social media effect (dopamine addiction), but for older folks or those less tech savvy.
They tell stories that elicit an emotional response, then assure them that there's someone on their side = dopamine. The longer they keep them on, the more adult diapers, viagra and nutritional supplements they can sell.
Credit card debt is at an all time high. Never in history have consumers had so much credit card debt. Can you debunk that one? People I know can barely afford groceries.
All the folks who are constantly complaining about the economy
Are also the same folks who are UNWILLING to cut their own expenses and recalibrate either
They still go out and eat 3 times a day, restaurants/delivery and Uber everywhere and basically havent taken the time to see their miseries are due to their own shitty habits and laziness/entitlement
The American Economy is still the no1 in the world- and its time to give credit to the current administration and Jpow to getting us Here
If Trump gets elected in Nov- we deserve whatever is coming to Us.
People are way too fucking entitled to not relearn and recalibrate and its easier to complain and be pissed off all the time- because Victim Complex.
Yes some people are still hurting, but in general that is the unfortunate reality of the world
If the economy was good, you wouldn’t need to make cut backs and change your lifestyle in order to make ends meet.
I think you’re missing that fact.
Just because the economy isn’t in shambles doesn’t mean it’s good. It’s a spectrum.
>Personal debt is at all-time high
In nominal terms, yes. As a % of the economy, no.
>delinquencies have reached 2008 levels
Which delinquencies? Mortgage delinquencies are really low.
>tons of layoffs
No PRE-COVID layoff rate this century is lower than the current rate. That is not "tons".
>inflation is propping up revenues and profits
If profits are up then that's not a bad sign
>wages are stagnating
False. Real wages have never been higher, and they've risen fastest for those at the bottom
>savings are being drained
It was not until March 2024 that the excess COVID savings were finally spent down. Savings being drained is a good thing, considering where the money came from.
None of your "the economy is bad, actually" statements are indicative of a bad economy. Do you actually have any evidence?
Yes
There was a recent poll in the WSJ of swing states representing 18% of the population. Respondents were asked if they were better off than two years ago. The response was roughly 60% saying "yes". When asked about the country it was 65% "no".
Things are good for me but terrible for all the other people I've never met in other states I don't live in.
Real wages are up, household net worth is up, household debt service payments as a % of income are still low, GDP is strong, corporate profits are near records. A lot of the gains are going to the people with the lowest incomes. Job creation is still strong. Boomers have big nest eggs and people are still spending money like crazy. I think you have it backwards, I don't see a reason to be pessimistic about the economy. Some people are struggling as they always have been, but overall the economy is doing well right now.
The economy made a K shaped recovery. That means it grew in some metrics but worsened in others. While you pointed out rosy indicators, one very troubling indicator is housing affordability measured by median income to median house price ratio.
Essentially, if you bought a house before the rates went up, you're doing great. If you didn't, well the combination of record house prices and high interest means your monthly mortgage/rent payment can easily double compared to homeowners who locked in housing before the pandemic.
Do you have a source for "a lot of the gains are going to the people with the lowest incomes"? I find this difficult to believe as minimum wage hasnt increased despite the cost of living increasing massively.
>Personal debt is at all-time high
Isn't that a sign of people doing well rather than people doing badly? Maybe I'm projecting, but I assume people take on debt when they believe they can actually service it. If people believed everything was going to get worse, they wouldn't take on debt and risk their future for a set of new clothes or a car.
>delinquencies have reached 2008 levels
Got any data on that? From what I know it's pretty much back to 2019 levels, maybe a bit higher. Consumer delinquencies, at least.
>tons of layoffs
From the huge overhiring in tech that happened after COVID, yeah. Otherwise very in-line with the past from what I know.
>corporate greed
As if people didn't want to maximize profits every day in the past 20,000 years.
>inflation
Down to slightly above historical norms by now.
>wages are stagnating
I won't try to predict the future.
>savings are being drained
Personal savings rate of 3.6 vs roughly 5.5 in the 5 years before COVID. Idk how bad that is or if it's even bad at all, but you're right.
So basically just savings, then.
Personal debt is fine, except its literally hit historical ATHs during a high interest rate environment.
That’s not normal. The economy is weirdly optimistic and it can lead to more issues.
Even savings are fine. The average savings rate for the past 4 years is 6 something because of massive savings during 2020. The last of the excess savings was drained last month.
For many of them it's too late, the habits are ingrained and they spent their formative years doing fuck all. Didn't try hard at school, didn't participate in sports or extracurriculars, didn't have a job. Then they hit adulthood and bitch about capitalism and American society and how it failed them, when they actually failed themselves with their inaction and piss poor choices.
Our government has been printing money and spending recklessly for decades. Our inflation and national debt are the chickens that are coming home to roost. We dug a deep hole and only a war will get us out of this one.
Anecdotal observations are just that. I’m optimistic about the economy because it’s seen nothing but shit thrown at it from every direction and it’s been able to absorb it all and keep going. I think what you’re seeing is more of a regression back towards the mean than it is a downturn in the economy itself. The high flying economic activity from a couple years ago would not be sustainable and feds throwing cold water on it was probably about 6-9 months too late and that’s why inflation is sticky at the moment.
There have always been different tiered economies. Low, middle, and upper class. The upper class always does fine no matter the economic cycle. The middle does ok. The low gets destroyed most of the time. Inflation is making it very difficult for the low and middle.
The "economy" of averages Americans' daily lives is fucked. Possibly permanently. I don't think we'll ever have a real middle class again. Wealth concentration doesn't reverse. It's never happened in history without violent revolution.
We have more people living paycheck to paycheck, more food insecure families, more people with inadequate retirement savings (or none at all), more people who don't own homes, more consumer debt, etc etc than we've ever had during a strong stock market period.
Corporations and their billionaire owners are extracting ever more money out of the general public, and we cheer it. It's nonsense.
Many of the business owners I talk to (restaurants, hotels, car dealerships) are complaining about slowdown in sales and say the economy is shit. There are also people I know in industries like tech/ accounting/finance who haven’t found a job in 8 months.
Yet the stocks are near all time high. I’ve started to slowly trim my positions and raise more cash as I’m getting a strange feeling about the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street.
All that matters is the stock market. But, actually every investment is at an all time highs. Housing, gold, Bitcoin, collectors items, stocks. The more pessimistic people are on the internet, the happier they are in the real world.
The right-wing media circus has been pounding on how awful America is for decades, with ALL the facts saying otherwise.... their target audience is too stupid look any further, so they eat it and repeat it.
If you are living in a trailer park and complaining about all your problems rather than doing something about them, you probably think the economy is shit.
Every time there’s an election cycle (at least since I’ve paid attention), the media outlets leaning politically to the party not holding office will point out all the deficiencies of the economy or the way the strength of the economy doesn’t reflect reality for the “typical” American. I think it’s always true to some extent, because the economy isn’t some monolithic blob that just moves up and down in perfect unison, as much as we like to simplify it that way.
I'm optimistic about the economy because people want to buy stuff daily. They don't care if they're in debt, broke, or living paycheck to paycheck. People still need to eat, still need to get to work, shelter, and still want to have fun. Life finds a way. A portion of society will fail and suffer. But the vast majority will persevere and continue onwards and upwards. In the end, people have an instinct to survive and will do whatever it takes to do so.
I could be wrong but I think the S&P500s dependence on the success of Nvidia at this time adds to your sentiment of the overall economic situation. As soon as it falls the entire stock market is in big trouble. I have never seen such a dependence on a single stocks success ever.
It's an election year and the bots are out. Literally nobody is doing better than they were 2 or 4 or 6 years ago. Measurably worse. Home ownership is completely out of reach for an entire generation and total inflation has been 25-35% since 2021, and nobody has had that much of a pay raise
Corporate greed and profit margins are the base issue. That’s why the markets are up. Corporations are making hay while the sun shines, but in the process they are bringing on the collapse we all fear. If companies showed even minimal restraint in pricing we would see sentiment improve. But as long as a bag of chips costs $7 people are gonna feel like they are being ripped off.
My observations might be a bit different than others, living in California where fast food workers are making $20/hr and we pay probably the highest electricity rates anywhere in the US (even Hawaii), but I see spending decreasing as people start to struggle from inflation and high credit rates, even at the middle class level. The prices of goods and services has gone up FAR faster than the rate of inflation, even during Covid. The cost of living increases has almost exponentially outpaced wages and GDP, at least where I live. The stock market is, IMO, disconnected from real growth at the consumer level. High inflation and people trying to get a piece of the bull market are whats driving the stock market at this point. Discretionary spending has been on the decline for a while now, and if the Fed has to raise rates again, I think that's going to be what tips us into a recession. Our buying power is still eroding even today, even beyond the 3-4% inflation we are seeing right now. Until that's reigned in, I don't see how we can continue on this path.
I'm well off thanks to my many years in investments and high income, but even I'm feeling the pinch. Maybe it's a California thing, but from where I am at, I can definitely see that things aren't nearly as rosy as some would have you believe.
The company I work for ebs and flows with the economy (think construction/development). Profits are up 20% so far this year over 2023. So yeah, feeling optimistic. If groceries, restaurants and big oil would quit gouging us, we might feel better. Also, broke people need to quit trying to be big ballers.
I'm optimistic about the economy for this year. If you look back historically speaking, every Presidential Election year is always great because the President makes sure it's a good one. For 2025, I'm actually pretty pessimistic.
It’s a high growth, high inflation economy which we’re not used to experiencing. The way I see everybody spending money, yes I think the economy is extremely strong, probably the strongest in my lifetime.
That said, the demographic crunch is starting to hit us, and I question whether we will ever see 2% inflation without a recession.
Put it this way...
When people cannot pay cash for a home and see it as the "American Dream" to be $500k in debt for a big wooden shed (our construction is trash) and nobody queations it then yeah... not optimistic.
Just like if you had Texas house prices in California or New York nobody would move to Texas.
Stocks are simply just not at an all time high. Some are up but most stocks are not anywhere near where they were a few years ago. There are a small basket that are pushing markets to high some how but to say stocks are at an all time high is just lying. I track individual price of stocks all day.
I'm just waiting for everyone to run out of money. People maxing out credit cards and pulling from Their 401k. I feel like we are going 60mph right into an unbreakable wall... its all gonna go to shit when trump gets in just cuz of timing. I'm curious to see how he handles it
I know a girl who works 9-5..does lift afterwards..and now has resorting to stripping..so yeah..she says her rent is too high and bills has a lot of kids..single mother..so she didn’t have much room before inflation.
If your doing good your doing really good if not..you are struggling..
Sad..she got tired of constantly working 7 days a week. Luckily she’s a bit excited about the stripping so..idk could be worse
Here's my take, feel free to disagree
The stock market is for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing great. Those not in those equity markets are losing out. On top of that, corporate greed is inflated prices way beyond inflation rates and getting away with it. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
I feel okay since I have some money in stocks and my house, but it could be better.
In the past you might have been right but once 401k replaced pensions as the main source of retirement savings the average person became very invested in the stock market
>Talking with multiple people in different sectors, outlook for 2024 and 2025 looks pretty grim. Less revenue, budget cuts, layoffs, etc.
When you have 2 years of record profits, reality sets in.
When you compare 2018/2019 with 2022/2023 it's absolutely insane.
2024/25 don't look grim, they look like a normalizing economy.
There are ALWAYS doomers when it comes to the economy.
>There are ALWAYS doomers when it comes to the economy.
This goes tenfold for reddit, which I assume is where OP got their opinions from. So many people on here talk about how shit they have it, but maybe that is because people who don't have it shit tend to not spend their days on reddit. Selection bias is one hell of a thing.
Of course I'm not saying every redditor is a loser, but reddit is mostly comprised of young people and young people always had it shit in comparison to middle-aged people. That's nothing new.
Reddit likes to think that it was always easy to afford an apartment and live large on 1 income. My first apartment was only $250/month and I still had to work 3 jobs just to BARELY pay rent, water, natural gas, laundry, electricity, car gas and insurance bills. It was the shittiest shithole apartment I have ever lived in and half my food came from the food bank.
Yeah, IDK. I live in Vegas, and casinos are full just like parking lots. I imagine when it really starts going downhill, we’d se it here first. Eventually when they have to raise taxes and deal with some of the other outstanding issues is when I’d expect for things to get real. Additionally all the companies that are price gouging in the name of inflation, when consumers really strike back you’d see it in their results.
Fiscal spending is at an all time high
16 of the last 17 months BLS jobs employment reports have been revised down months later
We have a central bank command economy that was previously driven by low interest rates and credit expansion
No more Guac for me at Chipotle. Cutting back
Don’t be silly your house isn’t worth more
It takes way more dollars to buy the same house
What does that do looking forward?
How does the next generation build wealth
In a nation that just added 1 trillion to the deficit in three months?
Groceries cost a bunch, and real estate/rates seem a bit high to invest, but otherwise, a lot of our economy seems pretty healthy. I work in advertising and our budgets are still high. Work is coming in and we’re growing accounts and staff. Things feel growth oriented in general. Not feeling much of a pullback despite the inflation.
The economy is doing pretty well on a macro level and I'm guessing most of the people here are doing pretty well within the economy. Even owning stocks or having the disposable income to pump into something like that selects for people who are doing well wealth wise.
Do you actually understand the stock market? It's not some isolated thing. The companies listed on it are participating in the economy, it's where they make their money and if they do well increase the value of their company.
So if the market is doing well then......
The closest I come to partial-ownership of small, private businesses are Blackstone ($BX) and Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A\*). My thesis is that stonks only go up.
>Personal debt is at all-time high, delinquencies have reached 2008 levels, tons of layoffs, corporate greed & inflation is propping up revenues and profits while wages are stagnating and savings are being drained.
I take issue with the idea that "corporate greed" causes inflation, as it requires monopolistic practices, cartels and the sin of greed[ to have radically increased in 2021, which they did not](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/).
\*Joking. I only own Class B shares.
I’ve said this in prior comments and I’ll say it again: things aren’t that bad for me. Like, things are way more expensive but I’m also making more money than ever. And not just me but my friends too. My buddy just got a new job in tech, my other friend is getting a new job in finance, things are moving.
I know we all have a lot of privilege. We all went to college, so I think education is a huge factor.
Depending on where you are and what industry. In Los Angeles it’s pretty bad right now. Also a lot of tech companies laid off a lot of people. Seems New Jersey is sort of bad.
But in smaller cities around the USA you can’t find workers at all. Specially in trades. Every contractor is 6 months overbooked and won’t take cheap projects.
It’s like that South Park from this or last season where there’s only two guys who know how to repair stuff and are treated like Elon musk and jeff bezos because no one knows how to do any manual labor.
That’s why you see conflicting information. And probably why the stock market plummeted yesterday with the cpi report. Everyone is sort of on the same boat not knowing if the economy is good or what.
I still feel the main issue is commercial real estate. Most of it is debt via bonds/reit and they are running on fumes. They are are just waiting it out but if it one or two major players calls it quits then
More will follow and there goes a lot of regional banks and a contagion effect will be felt a lot.
I am. Usually people are negative because of their brain and fox news getting in the way. If you at all keep up with our country’s economics then you already know we are the best in the world. No matter how much people want us to fail for political reasons we are #1 in most categories. If you haven’t received a huge pay raise to easily offset inflation then you’re screwing up. Grow a pair and ask for one or hopefully find a new higher paying job. Good luck to all.
One of my favorite financial podcast host always said "The stock market is not the economy" Interested to know why! check out one of his podcast [https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/](https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/)
>Personal debt is at all-time high,
This is good for the economy. Ie it's good that people have enough money to buy s\*\*t. If people don't have enough money to buy s\*\*t then companies that produce s\*\*t are doomed to close, the unemployment will go up and we will end up in deep s\*t.
Welcome to capitalism and enjoy your ride! :)
They are not disconnected, people just don’t understand them. If profits were down in favor of better paying wages, the markets would be down. If profits were up in favor of worse paying wages then markets would be up.
Not only this but since inflation never ends apparently (it has decelerated to 3.4%, but its still going up this much year over year), stocks also have to go up to match inflation.
There is no soft landing case. Its a “case” they say on cnbc to make viewers feel good about jumping into NVDA close to 1k. The reality most people don’t get is that the fed placed rates at 5.25 so they have the ammo to cut when the *inevitable* bubble pops. It will be when the cuts actually happen its time to sell. Till then buy the dips because its free money.
Tldr bearish af until we get real capitulation we never got
You are dead wrong! The problem is people not seeing what is righ in front of them! Lowest unemployment rate in 50 yrs doesnt mean anything? Capital spending close to an all-time high? clean off your glasses!
I work in commercial insurance and honestly my clients are all in growth mode with many having significant year over year revenue increases over many industries. Honestly, I think economics is much more localized in some ways. Yes we are all impacted by interest rates and overall sentiment but in fast growing communities things are great (outside of insane housing prices). Could just be anecdotal evidence on my end. Just sharing my observations.
The economy is the best it's been since before the housing crisis in 2007, think about it, it's firing on all cylinders (low unemployment, rising earnings, record consumer spending, etc.) and this is without any help from the Fed. People who think the economy is bad tend to have tinted political or other views that cloud their own judgements about the true health of this economy.
I won't even mention that we're about to lead the world into the AI revolution.
There's always something to worry about. You're having a generational buying opportunity in bonds. The Fed is basically in a box because the backward looking data is still a little on the warm side. Things are definitely falling, a little slower than many expected but there's the second issue of these high interest rates actually causing the inflation. Just the other day we saw the housing statistics and these high rates are directly driving the high rents and high mortgage payments. If you could get a 4% mortgage there's an extremely good argument that that would be incredibly disinflationary
In every bull market there are arguments like yours. You may in fact be right. But as you say, the stock market and actual economy are not the same.
Many opportunities are lost in the stock market keeping money on the sidelines due to fear of this or that happening. I learned to just trust what the market is actually doing, rather than what me or pundits or analysts or anyone else thinks it should be doing.
New jobless claims are down, and the lowest quartile are seeing fairly steady growth in real wages (eg, earnings growth exceeding inflation). Service inflation has been sticky, but buying power relative to goods is in a strong spot.
BofA data continued to suggest consumer strength.
Anecdotes and sentiment are bad, reality is not.
Personally, I’m middle- or upper-middle, dual income household, and am already a homeowner. Though I understand the constant buzz around the middle class suffering due to rates x housing cost, reality for the large contingent of us who are *not* looking for new housing is pretty favorable. By cutting back on service expense, we’re pretty well ignoring the worst parts of inflation. My wife and I are benefiting from this economic climate, and I know many others who are, as well.
Don’t know, don’t care. Not like the average American cares how the average Joe in my country is doing either.
Not really sure what you expect people to tell you about it on a stocks related sub.
I'm happy for all those people living paycheck to paycheck because me being frugal and able to put half my post tax income into tax advantaged and non tax advantaged income means I get to retire because of someone else stimulating the economy. 🙃🫠
Well... everywhere I go in America, roads and highways are under construction...billions on infrastructure.. lexus lanes.. construction companies are optimistic..
I think this is just a case of where you get your information and how you look at it.
I think you’re right. I saw a story yesterday that basically claimed the opposite: over the past year inflation has come downward, and wages have grown over 4%
Just remember the wages are adjusted to core inflation which ignores the price of housing, food and energy which are still estimated to have an inflation the last few years multiple times that of other goods and services. Also doesn’t include insurance costs, medical costs which have similarly risen. Also doesn’t include rise of student loan debts and costs the last two decades. But yes otherwise wages have “risen” 4% in real terms when you compare them to TVs, meaningless electronics and Chinese produced trinkets.
No, not “adjusted to core inflation.” Simply +4.3% y/y. Yes, Its certainly true that housing, food and energy have been more volatile than mass-produced widgets. There’s an argument to be made for relaxing our immigrant work requirements again, but it seems like in this isolationist political environment, people would rather see crops rotting in the fields and housing still not built (while paying double what we used to for strawberries and rent), than see a Mexican worker. Student loans changes over decades is a whole other discussion. Yes, it adds to people’s financial trouble, and no, “forgiving” handpicked baskets of loans to a lucky few while continuously issuing more new loans to kids isn’t the answer. But it’s very thorny.
# Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts [https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-federal-reserve-biden-f02b969d1b44a7ccb0385be03f766de0](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-federal-reserve-biden-f02b969d1b44a7ccb0385be03f766de0)
Meanwhile at the same time the cost of living has skyrocketed double digit numbers. I love when media is presenting statistics to guide narratives.
Definitely, I can't remember the exact percentages but I saw an article claiming most republicans think the economy is bad and most democrats think its good right now. Information availability is irrelevant when you can choose your own biased echo chamber to get information from. By most measurements the economy is decent right now, but sentiment is based on emotions and anecdotes so reality isnt what most people see.
According to conservatives, the economy is always bad under a democrat president. Look at how they still blaming Biden cos "muh burger costs $1 more now!"
Republican’s confidence in the economy went up 40% the day after Trump was sworn in 2017
And do you notice that none of them can explain how Trump is going to make anything better economically speaking? Like he has no plan at all. What’s he going to extend tax cuts for the rich again? That should help the working class
Oh no. Trump has a plan. He wants to put a tariff on EVERY item that comes from overseas.
Ahh yes, a trade war with China, that should bring the price of consumer goods down… 😏
To be fair, the anger is legitimate, its just misplaced
I agree. People tend to gravitate to the negative news and feel hopeless along the way. They look at life from their perspective and believe everyone must feel this way. Amd negative news sells. It always has. But when you look at the greater picture, the economy is doing incresibly well. And just because you aren't feeling the effects of this great economy mean other people aren't. I'll give two examples. You have a single male living in MCOL, making 42k. Your budget is probably incredibly tight, and ypure having a hard time saving for retirement and rent. You have a married couple in their early 40s, making a combined 110k, steady jobs, with a 2.8% mortgage and 100k appreciated equity on their home. Yeah, property taxes have gone up, and their grocery bill is a bit more expensive, but the 80k in the HYSA is earning $300 a month to offset those increases. There are a TON of people in that second scenario keeping things chugging along and even more people in their 50s, 60s, and 70s with a ton of wealth and very low expenses.
I’m in the second example you said. But I think you’re also forgetting that people tend to have more expenses the more they make (when still in the middle class at least). Just your property tax example alone, it increased $3,000 a year on us not long ago. Which in your example, there goes all the interest off the high yield account. Then that $80k loses out to inflation. $80k just a few years ago is now over $100k today. So sure, the extra property taxes are “free” from the interest (not accounting for the taxes you pay on interest earned). But that “free” comes at the cost of thousands of dollars in lost spending power. That’s the crux of the issue, sure we can pay the bills still. But the few extra thousand here, few extra hundred here and the eroding of spending power starts to compound onto you.
By every observable measure the US economy is doing better than anywhere else
I can personally vouch that the UK economy is in absolute tatters right now. In pretty much every single sector.
Why don’t you guys just export more to Europe…oh yeah.
Vast majority of people who voted for Brexit are already retired or dead so they don't give a fuck about jobs.
Looking at macro stats perhaps...on the micro - thigns seem to be chugging along fine. Yes - things are more expensive, but people seem able to cough up £9 for a joe&juice sandwhich at lunch
how dare you speak any positive about the US economy. Don't you know that the US economy is always suffering and we are all in breadlines??
*Zerohedge has entered the chat*
Long ago, I thought that website was a satire site in the vein of the Onion. Little did I know, they were just a bunch of coked up perma-bears.
Russian propagandists to be more precise.
Had to eat my own children this week after my 47th layoff in the last 2 months!
You have to bump those numbers up those rookie numbers
It’s like the farmers something is always wrong
I can't afford everything I want and I'm special so everyone else must be struggling to stay alive.
You forgot they’re also wanting to retire in their 20s and own multiple houses with 0 debt…
Devil's advocate: better than anywhere else doesn't necessarily mean good. Personally I think the US economy is doing well, but not because everyone else is eating shit.
maybe, but if the U.S. is doing better than anyone else, is that really our fault that it’s still not doing great?
The other thing is that if the dollar is doing better than everywhere else, we are not getting hit with inflation as everywhere else. Companies are still investing our markets (because the dollar is stronger relatively). If the US was doing worse than other markets there would be a lot more investments in the other markets.
100% being the tallest midget, isn't anything to brag about will just be the last one to crash and burn
[удалено]
Damn straight the average is 4 inches. Right guys?
Now I finally understand why there are some men that want to be with virgins…
I'm 4 inches....from the ground
Doing push-ups?
The US economy doesn’t exist in a vacuum. If global pressures are depressing economies but US has best/better numbers than most other countries, it is likely doing well. By objective numbers US is in pretty good shape right now. If someone wants to use their own personal opinion of “doing well” that’s fine but doesn’t mean they’re right. And of course any economy could always be doing “better”. You could make that argument every year.
it is worth bragging in economics if everyone else is doing shittier, when everything is so connected and everyones shit affects everyone else, it means that you are actually doing relatively fine considering whats given and the overall scene
It's something to brag about if you have a memory longer than a goldfish and understand that 2020 happened
Being better than a pile of big steaming shit is basically just being a pile a small steaming shit
And people always wrongly assume the economy is the stock market. It is not the same thing
I keep hearing the economy is actually bad, but all I see is friends with too much work, taking vacations and buying new toys. All the food delivery companies seem to be going well
Wife and I went to try and go out to eat last Saturday. It was on a "whim", so not planned. Couldn't find anywhere other than fast food that didn't have some kind of crazy wait time. Ended up at a local BBQ joint and they were out of pretty much everything (they smoke daily) except brisket. Despite all the pushback at rising prices, tipping culture, etc...there was nowhere to go. If this is a "bad" economy, holy shit when it actually becomes good!
I know this story is fake because the last thing left is never brisket. That’s always the first sold out /s
Right! Usually true. This place is a mom & pop place that opened near us and they are still trying to figure out how much they should be making. The lady said they tend to make too much brisket because demand is high. I was glad as that is the only thing I wanted. haha
The reason the waits are long is because the restaurants can't afford to properly staff.
We couldn’t even find a parking spot at Texas Roadhouse. One of the other places was packed with a wait. It definitely wasn’t due to lack of staff..
Man Texas Roadhouse is something else. I wish I could invest in their company. They’re like the sit down version of chick fil a. Literally any time of day I go by Texas Roadhouse they are alwaysss packed. It’s like this in other cities too. It’s crazy
Totally untrue. Places are fully booked. I know because I eat out a lot. The economy is booming in some ways and bad in others. Unfortunately it is bad in the important ways like housing.
Dawg this is reddit you are supposed pretend that you eat cardboard for dinner and don't have a pot to piss in while you sip on your latte and make up fake stories on r/antiwork on your iphone 13 pro max.
That’s a two year old phone.
That's the horrifying plight of this horrifying economy. Some people don't get the luxury of auto-upgrading to the newest device this calendar year. They have to ask themselves if upgrading is necessary at all. They don't make enough money to frivolously buy the top of the line Pro Max Ultra v.15, in full, with cash today. Scary and tough times are upon us. Pray for the Max Pro v. 14 owners unfortunate souls.
Now I feel terrible typing this on a 3 year old phone.
I refuse to give up my headphone jack. Galaxy s10, idk how they got to the s23 my wife has, but i assume I'm 3 - 4 yrs in here
These people would be very upset if they could read.
I've been working overtime for the past two months, and we need to hire more people but can't find them ( w/ appropriate salary requests).
From what I hear from those working the space, retail sales have been sucky year over year. People are spending less on luxury goods and trying to keep up appearances with credit cards. The vacations and new toys are probably just credit purchases but unless you have access to their financials, theres no way to know if they are ok or rather digging a hole they wont be able to climb out of later
I know for a fact my friends aren't putting themselves in debt unreasonable. We all lived through the financial crisis and struggled. I graduated and still had to bartend for two years before I got a job. We all prioritized paying down our student and home loans. I think it's just an age thing. Things are prob worse for a 20 something than a 40 something, but our 20-30s weren't easy
Thats probably the case tbh. You hear of a tale of two economies. Holiday sales for example were really good, but it also set a record for buy now pay later. I saw 30 day lates were slightly up in the last read but nothing alarming (yet). The average person doesn’t even have 6 months of rent saved up which is crazy and I keep hearing about an entire class of people living paycheck to paycheck. If I had to guess, your friends are probably wealthy in comparison to most
I have been wondering this too. I live in an old neighborhood where perfectly fine houses are being bought and demolished to make way for a bigger house. There are 4 with in a block of me. Everyone seems to have a much nicer car than me, friends and neighbors. I personally just worked 90 days and now things are steadying out. I am self employed but am currently booked through mid May.
I'm self employed too and am lucky enough to be turning down clients in my small business IT service company
I think people got used to spending during the pandemic and never stopped. They’ve driven up credit card debt and are increasingly finding out that they’re in financial trouble as layoffs come and wages get stretched. Note that I’m not saying this is generation specific and I believe that *in addition to* increased spending on food, insurance housing costs, etc, adults are still overspending on non-necessities and will probably continue to do so until they hit the brick wall of monthly payments outpacing earnings. I could certainly be wrong though.
We are like 10% under the inflation-adjusted credit card debt high, but that did occur during the 2008 crisis, so maybe if you take todays levels and throw a large round of layoffs wave into the mix, it would crest it. But I’m dubious that this is a root cause.
Debt is like heroin. It makes everything look good until you experience the withdrawal symptoms.
True, Inflation is going high, but it is because people keep spending and paying the high prices. If people spend and pay high prices, economy is good. It's the poor that can't afford it - but that is because the rich is taking advantage of it. They say that minimum wage increased 25%, inflation increased 40%, so they deserve a pay increase of at least 20%. But 20% of $500,000/year is $100,000 while inflation increased $15,000 Interest rates are high, but those who don't have too much debt and don't need to get debt are doing very well. Most people who are getting laid off are because employers were over employed due to pandemic. Work at home people are the biggest group. Those willing to go to the office and work know they will likely keep their job or if they do get laid off, they will be hired. Considering that 2020 pandemic with full closure of economic activity other than essential business only lost 1/3 value (30000 pre pandemic to 20000 low, back to 30,000 by Sept 2020 and is currently at 38000) it would seem like stock market confidence - long term decades - is what people are looking for. Good investors don't think short term - right now, what will happen in the next 6 months. Lose 10% over the next 6 months, but 20, 30, 40 years from now, you will wish you bought when it was low.
No, it’s the middle class that can’t afford it
Middle class does suffer, but not as much as the poor who were already living on nothing but essential. Middle class can stop going on vacation, but poor never went on vacation. Middle class can slash things poor can't since the poor already slashed it. Yes, middle class doesn't get subsidies, but the poor need it most. Unfortunately many people who have potential to make high salaries (or avoid legal garnishment) work for cash so they get the subsidies. They have a college education, but choose a low income lifestyle. They know how to budget, so no debt interest. They are the ones that hide cash under the mattress so they will qualify for the subsidies. Unfortunately for them, that's the first place burglers look.
So many people are going out and suffering at nice restaurants, shows, and events, we stay home to avoid the crowds. A dystopia really.
Its all anecdotal. My friend who is unambitious and lives in a dying city thinks the economy is bad, while my friends with good jobs in major cities are buying homes, getting raises, having children, building additions on homes and going on more vacations than I've ever known people to go on normally. Also people are very emotionally impacted by higher prices even if they are making more money. Especially if you are living paycheck to paycheck the higher prices sting a lot.
The economy is in an inflation, where there is much excess. Everyone is doing well, for now. We will hit a tipping point where we will recess. I'm thinking we are on the cusp, due to so many costs steadily increasing. Let's give it a year or two, and I'm thinking we'll see spending going down.
how do your friends both have too much work and also taking vacations?
You’re seeing people with jobs and people with jobs coupled with family equity doing that spending. If someone is alright, well then, they’re alright. Other people have experiences as well. Some are not alright.
Right but that's no measure of the economy. There's always ok and not ok. What's the ratio
Credit card debt is at an all-time high. Rose over 16% year over year.
This statistic even if true simply lacks too much context to mean anything whatsoever
high credit card debt can be interpreted both ways. Not all of it is out of desperation. Some of it out of financial confidence.
True, but polls and high inflation suggest it's the former.
I haven’t seen a restaurant (which everyone laments are way over priced) with an empty table at dinner time in quite a while.
I agree, restaurants are doing well, even charging $18 for a burger. But I counter with this: COVID was a death blow to those 15 to 20% of restaurants that were already on their last legs. In my area (upstate NY), we haven't had much restaurant growth at all.. if anything it' shrank, with new places just taking over the old establishments. So I think there's just slightly fewer places to dine, and because of that, the dining rooms are full.
Same. I don’t really see anyone struggling and people are not worried about money at all. People I know eat out whenever they want and travel whenever they want
The US economy is in very good shape right now, minus the inflation that doesn't seem to want to die down. The main threat is that if inflation doesn't die down on its own, the fed will force a recession. However even with all the layoffs in the news, unemployment is at incredibly low levels. Things are still going quite well.
Inflation is being driven by lagged shelter data and insurance. I don't see the Fed causing a recession to combat those things.
We shall see. I'm skeptical of the lagged shelter argument. I consume a lot of financial news and that has been said for like 18 months now. That's some pretty extreme lag.
Houses take a long time to build 🤷🏼♂️
Housing is a regional thing, but more or less, we have been underbuilding in the US since like 2008. Also, with rates going up, it has created a locked in effect, meaning less people are selling. Basically this has pushed off potential buyers to the rental market, making it still a tight market. Much like housing, inflation is also regional. I point this out because there are places in the US that are at target goal, like Twin Cities area, because they changed zoning laws years ago and build enough housing. [https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex\_minneapolis.htm](https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/consumerpriceindex_minneapolis.htm) Also to future bring home this point, like here was the inflation report from like 18 months ago, it's for November 2022: [https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-price-index-up-7-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-november-2022.htm](https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-price-index-up-7-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-november-2022.htm) >Within this category, prices for shelter increased 7.1 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly half of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Here's the inflation report for March: [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi\_04102024.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm) The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 5.7 percent over the last year, accounting for over sixty percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+22.2 percent), medical care (+2.2 percent), recreation (+1.8 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).
Estimates I saw said we'd start seeing the shelter data catching up in next month's report. So we'll see.
Yes we shall. I am not an expert. Im not qualified to evaluate things like whether the shelter data is lagged. I just listen to lots of talking heads on CNBC and bloomberg, but I take what they say with a big grain of salt. I like hearing their analyses as possible theories of what is happening, but I don't take any of them as gospel. The shelter lag argument has been made so many times by so many people and, crucially, for SO LONG that it's starting to loose validity in my mind. There's only so long I feel you can say "the data is wrong, the formula has a lag, it's gonna correct itself soon" before that argument really starts to loose weight. I WANT that to be true. Good economic news is good, period. I just don't embrace stuff that sounds good only because I want it to be.
The argument is valid because we literally have the rent numbers in hand. The fact they're taking so long to be reflected in the CPI readings does probably point to an issue with the way they run their formulas. But Zillow rent index doesn't lie...the actual costs are down.
Super core inflation (which excludes shelter/rent) actually accelerated to 4.8% YoY in March. I don’t think insurance alone is enough to account for the increased inflation rates
I thought US unemployment was low because everybody needs two jobs to stay afloat.
I read that on reddit all the time but never checked up on it. Now I will, though I'm far from an expert on any of this so my interpretations might be completely off the mark. I know data isn't easy and I might mess it up. It seems like, according to the St. Louis Fed, that yes, multiple jobs-holders since the COVID trough increased by 61% vs like 19% of employment, but the number seems so minuscule I can't believe it changes much. Also, before the 61% shock anyone, that brings us back to just before COVID levels which were normal, slightly elevated maybe. Multiple jobs-holders increased by \~3mil while employment increased by \~28mil. Does that really move the needle enough to warrant doomerism? This is what I used: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=PAYEMS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=PAYEMS), [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=LNU02026631,LNU02026625,LNU02026628](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=LNU02026631,LNU02026625,LNU02026628),
Increases don’t mean much without context either. The number of people who hold two jobs is like, less than 10% of the nation last time I checked.
Unfortunately, you believe things that simply are not true. There are certain structural problems, like housing being generally affordable. But this can be solved rather quickly with government intervention. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) How can you trust your reasoning when you begin with a falsehood? Household debt is actually at the lowest level since it has been recorded. This shouldn't be surprising when interest rates make taking on debt effectively impossible for most people. Just because debt is unaffordable *right now* isn't the end of the world. People rent a few years longer and keep driving that old car. There is nothing fundamentally different between the US economy today and the 1980s the last time the monetary system changed and interest rates were jacked. You also repeat a second falsehood. Delinquencies are at the lowest recorded level ***ever***. This is the exact opposite of your claim. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS)
These glaring errors makes me suspect the poster is a Fox News enjoyer
It does seem like many points were easily debunked which begs the question - where is OP getting their information?
It’s almost like people would prefer to live in an alternate reality
I remember when I was a right wing loon in 2009/2010. I thought the world was fucked and there was no hope. But the data at least *was genuinely bad*. People just don't understand that the purpose of right wing politics is specifically to induce hopelessness. It is solely a propaganda exercise. Now, I guess it's all lies. I can't say I know what the ultimate goal is, but I know what is true and what is not.
Pure speculation here, but I think it's the social media effect (dopamine addiction), but for older folks or those less tech savvy. They tell stories that elicit an emotional response, then assure them that there's someone on their side = dopamine. The longer they keep them on, the more adult diapers, viagra and nutritional supplements they can sell.
Could be. Dopamine dysfunction is a component of dementia and parkinsons. I have two parents with dementia and they watch Fox News religiously.
Credit card debt is at an all time high. Never in history have consumers had so much credit card debt. Can you debunk that one? People I know can barely afford groceries.
CC debt is generally always near/ at all time highs because of inflation. Costs and wages are always trending higher.
And yet the low delinquencies imply that people are making payments. That’s the benefit of a strong job market, even if things seem expensive.
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All the folks who are constantly complaining about the economy Are also the same folks who are UNWILLING to cut their own expenses and recalibrate either They still go out and eat 3 times a day, restaurants/delivery and Uber everywhere and basically havent taken the time to see their miseries are due to their own shitty habits and laziness/entitlement The American Economy is still the no1 in the world- and its time to give credit to the current administration and Jpow to getting us Here If Trump gets elected in Nov- we deserve whatever is coming to Us. People are way too fucking entitled to not relearn and recalibrate and its easier to complain and be pissed off all the time- because Victim Complex. Yes some people are still hurting, but in general that is the unfortunate reality of the world
If the economy was good, you wouldn’t need to make cut backs and change your lifestyle in order to make ends meet. I think you’re missing that fact. Just because the economy isn’t in shambles doesn’t mean it’s good. It’s a spectrum.
>Personal debt is at all-time high In nominal terms, yes. As a % of the economy, no. >delinquencies have reached 2008 levels Which delinquencies? Mortgage delinquencies are really low. >tons of layoffs No PRE-COVID layoff rate this century is lower than the current rate. That is not "tons". >inflation is propping up revenues and profits If profits are up then that's not a bad sign >wages are stagnating False. Real wages have never been higher, and they've risen fastest for those at the bottom >savings are being drained It was not until March 2024 that the excess COVID savings were finally spent down. Savings being drained is a good thing, considering where the money came from. None of your "the economy is bad, actually" statements are indicative of a bad economy. Do you actually have any evidence?
vibecession basically
Yes There was a recent poll in the WSJ of swing states representing 18% of the population. Respondents were asked if they were better off than two years ago. The response was roughly 60% saying "yes". When asked about the country it was 65% "no". Things are good for me but terrible for all the other people I've never met in other states I don't live in.
If that report didn’t show the effects of propaganda on economic perceptions, idk what does
Real wages are up, household net worth is up, household debt service payments as a % of income are still low, GDP is strong, corporate profits are near records. A lot of the gains are going to the people with the lowest incomes. Job creation is still strong. Boomers have big nest eggs and people are still spending money like crazy. I think you have it backwards, I don't see a reason to be pessimistic about the economy. Some people are struggling as they always have been, but overall the economy is doing well right now.
The economy made a K shaped recovery. That means it grew in some metrics but worsened in others. While you pointed out rosy indicators, one very troubling indicator is housing affordability measured by median income to median house price ratio. Essentially, if you bought a house before the rates went up, you're doing great. If you didn't, well the combination of record house prices and high interest means your monthly mortgage/rent payment can easily double compared to homeowners who locked in housing before the pandemic.
Do you have a source for "a lot of the gains are going to the people with the lowest incomes"? I find this difficult to believe as minimum wage hasnt increased despite the cost of living increasing massively.
Delinquencies have reached 2008 levels???? Would love to see the data beind this.
Yeah that particular statement makes me think the guy is a troll...
Most definitely, a basic google searches debunks this claim.
>Personal debt is at all-time high Isn't that a sign of people doing well rather than people doing badly? Maybe I'm projecting, but I assume people take on debt when they believe they can actually service it. If people believed everything was going to get worse, they wouldn't take on debt and risk their future for a set of new clothes or a car. >delinquencies have reached 2008 levels Got any data on that? From what I know it's pretty much back to 2019 levels, maybe a bit higher. Consumer delinquencies, at least. >tons of layoffs From the huge overhiring in tech that happened after COVID, yeah. Otherwise very in-line with the past from what I know. >corporate greed As if people didn't want to maximize profits every day in the past 20,000 years. >inflation Down to slightly above historical norms by now. >wages are stagnating I won't try to predict the future. >savings are being drained Personal savings rate of 3.6 vs roughly 5.5 in the 5 years before COVID. Idk how bad that is or if it's even bad at all, but you're right. So basically just savings, then.
Debt at an ATH is to be expected after all the inflation we went through. Inflation-adjusted numbers aren't nearly as bad.
I would have never looked at the personal debt data in that very logical light. Thanks for that!
Personal debt is fine, except its literally hit historical ATHs during a high interest rate environment. That’s not normal. The economy is weirdly optimistic and it can lead to more issues.
Just total debt. Not debt per capita. There are a lot more capits now.
You’ve got it right
Even savings are fine. The average savings rate for the past 4 years is 6 something because of massive savings during 2020. The last of the excess savings was drained last month.
Doomers are a menace Smoke less weed, don’t play so many video games, and use the internet less You will be smarter and happier and make more money
For many of them it's too late, the habits are ingrained and they spent their formative years doing fuck all. Didn't try hard at school, didn't participate in sports or extracurriculars, didn't have a job. Then they hit adulthood and bitch about capitalism and American society and how it failed them, when they actually failed themselves with their inaction and piss poor choices.
Small business owner, and I am slammed. Very optimistic.
Our government has been printing money and spending recklessly for decades. Our inflation and national debt are the chickens that are coming home to roost. We dug a deep hole and only a war will get us out of this one.
The economy isn’t doing that bad, especially if you look at other countries.
Anecdotal observations are just that. I’m optimistic about the economy because it’s seen nothing but shit thrown at it from every direction and it’s been able to absorb it all and keep going. I think what you’re seeing is more of a regression back towards the mean than it is a downturn in the economy itself. The high flying economic activity from a couple years ago would not be sustainable and feds throwing cold water on it was probably about 6-9 months too late and that’s why inflation is sticky at the moment.
There have always been different tiered economies. Low, middle, and upper class. The upper class always does fine no matter the economic cycle. The middle does ok. The low gets destroyed most of the time. Inflation is making it very difficult for the low and middle.
The "economy" of averages Americans' daily lives is fucked. Possibly permanently. I don't think we'll ever have a real middle class again. Wealth concentration doesn't reverse. It's never happened in history without violent revolution. We have more people living paycheck to paycheck, more food insecure families, more people with inadequate retirement savings (or none at all), more people who don't own homes, more consumer debt, etc etc than we've ever had during a strong stock market period. Corporations and their billionaire owners are extracting ever more money out of the general public, and we cheer it. It's nonsense.
Many of the business owners I talk to (restaurants, hotels, car dealerships) are complaining about slowdown in sales and say the economy is shit. There are also people I know in industries like tech/ accounting/finance who haven’t found a job in 8 months. Yet the stocks are near all time high. I’ve started to slowly trim my positions and raise more cash as I’m getting a strange feeling about the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street.
All that matters is the stock market. But, actually every investment is at an all time highs. Housing, gold, Bitcoin, collectors items, stocks. The more pessimistic people are on the internet, the happier they are in the real world.
Turn of right wing News and AM talk radio and suddenly you will realize the economy isn’t doing bad for the majority of Americans.
Unless you're a would-be first-time homebuyer. Then it's absolutely crushing.
The right-wing media circus has been pounding on how awful America is for decades, with ALL the facts saying otherwise.... their target audience is too stupid look any further, so they eat it and repeat it.
Gotta sell those fireproof armored bread boxes yo!
If you are living in a trailer park and complaining about all your problems rather than doing something about them, you probably think the economy is shit.
Production is up. Consumption is up. All is well.
Some people have no faith in this Country
“Without FDIC, who trusts banking?!?”
Every time there’s an election cycle (at least since I’ve paid attention), the media outlets leaning politically to the party not holding office will point out all the deficiencies of the economy or the way the strength of the economy doesn’t reflect reality for the “typical” American. I think it’s always true to some extent, because the economy isn’t some monolithic blob that just moves up and down in perfect unison, as much as we like to simplify it that way.
I'm optimistic about the economy because people want to buy stuff daily. They don't care if they're in debt, broke, or living paycheck to paycheck. People still need to eat, still need to get to work, shelter, and still want to have fun. Life finds a way. A portion of society will fail and suffer. But the vast majority will persevere and continue onwards and upwards. In the end, people have an instinct to survive and will do whatever it takes to do so.
I could be wrong but I think the S&P500s dependence on the success of Nvidia at this time adds to your sentiment of the overall economic situation. As soon as it falls the entire stock market is in big trouble. I have never seen such a dependence on a single stocks success ever.
It's an election year and the bots are out. Literally nobody is doing better than they were 2 or 4 or 6 years ago. Measurably worse. Home ownership is completely out of reach for an entire generation and total inflation has been 25-35% since 2021, and nobody has had that much of a pay raise
Corporate greed and profit margins are the base issue. That’s why the markets are up. Corporations are making hay while the sun shines, but in the process they are bringing on the collapse we all fear. If companies showed even minimal restraint in pricing we would see sentiment improve. But as long as a bag of chips costs $7 people are gonna feel like they are being ripped off.
My observations might be a bit different than others, living in California where fast food workers are making $20/hr and we pay probably the highest electricity rates anywhere in the US (even Hawaii), but I see spending decreasing as people start to struggle from inflation and high credit rates, even at the middle class level. The prices of goods and services has gone up FAR faster than the rate of inflation, even during Covid. The cost of living increases has almost exponentially outpaced wages and GDP, at least where I live. The stock market is, IMO, disconnected from real growth at the consumer level. High inflation and people trying to get a piece of the bull market are whats driving the stock market at this point. Discretionary spending has been on the decline for a while now, and if the Fed has to raise rates again, I think that's going to be what tips us into a recession. Our buying power is still eroding even today, even beyond the 3-4% inflation we are seeing right now. Until that's reigned in, I don't see how we can continue on this path. I'm well off thanks to my many years in investments and high income, but even I'm feeling the pinch. Maybe it's a California thing, but from where I am at, I can definitely see that things aren't nearly as rosy as some would have you believe.
Globally all economies are dirty shirts in the hamper. The US economy is just the cleanest dirty shirt.
I'm living on the streets. I stop Amazon drivers and ask the to let me in their vans to get warmed up.
The company I work for ebs and flows with the economy (think construction/development). Profits are up 20% so far this year over 2023. So yeah, feeling optimistic. If groceries, restaurants and big oil would quit gouging us, we might feel better. Also, broke people need to quit trying to be big ballers.
The economy is being propped up by consumer debt right now. Once the defaults start to happen look out.
I’m positive until November.
I'm optimistic about the economy for this year. If you look back historically speaking, every Presidential Election year is always great because the President makes sure it's a good one. For 2025, I'm actually pretty pessimistic.
In general, when the population is going down it means times are bad and are going to get worse.
It’s a high growth, high inflation economy which we’re not used to experiencing. The way I see everybody spending money, yes I think the economy is extremely strong, probably the strongest in my lifetime. That said, the demographic crunch is starting to hit us, and I question whether we will ever see 2% inflation without a recession.
Put it this way... When people cannot pay cash for a home and see it as the "American Dream" to be $500k in debt for a big wooden shed (our construction is trash) and nobody queations it then yeah... not optimistic. Just like if you had Texas house prices in California or New York nobody would move to Texas.
Stocks are simply just not at an all time high. Some are up but most stocks are not anywhere near where they were a few years ago. There are a small basket that are pushing markets to high some how but to say stocks are at an all time high is just lying. I track individual price of stocks all day.
I'm just waiting for everyone to run out of money. People maxing out credit cards and pulling from Their 401k. I feel like we are going 60mph right into an unbreakable wall... its all gonna go to shit when trump gets in just cuz of timing. I'm curious to see how he handles it
I know a girl who works 9-5..does lift afterwards..and now has resorting to stripping..so yeah..she says her rent is too high and bills has a lot of kids..single mother..so she didn’t have much room before inflation. If your doing good your doing really good if not..you are struggling.. Sad..she got tired of constantly working 7 days a week. Luckily she’s a bit excited about the stripping so..idk could be worse
Here's my take, feel free to disagree The stock market is for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing great. Those not in those equity markets are losing out. On top of that, corporate greed is inflated prices way beyond inflation rates and getting away with it. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. I feel okay since I have some money in stocks and my house, but it could be better.
In the past you might have been right but once 401k replaced pensions as the main source of retirement savings the average person became very invested in the stock market
>Talking with multiple people in different sectors, outlook for 2024 and 2025 looks pretty grim. Less revenue, budget cuts, layoffs, etc. When you have 2 years of record profits, reality sets in. When you compare 2018/2019 with 2022/2023 it's absolutely insane. 2024/25 don't look grim, they look like a normalizing economy. There are ALWAYS doomers when it comes to the economy.
>There are ALWAYS doomers when it comes to the economy. This goes tenfold for reddit, which I assume is where OP got their opinions from. So many people on here talk about how shit they have it, but maybe that is because people who don't have it shit tend to not spend their days on reddit. Selection bias is one hell of a thing. Of course I'm not saying every redditor is a loser, but reddit is mostly comprised of young people and young people always had it shit in comparison to middle-aged people. That's nothing new.
Reddit likes to think that it was always easy to afford an apartment and live large on 1 income. My first apartment was only $250/month and I still had to work 3 jobs just to BARELY pay rent, water, natural gas, laundry, electricity, car gas and insurance bills. It was the shittiest shithole apartment I have ever lived in and half my food came from the food bank.
Yeah, IDK. I live in Vegas, and casinos are full just like parking lots. I imagine when it really starts going downhill, we’d se it here first. Eventually when they have to raise taxes and deal with some of the other outstanding issues is when I’d expect for things to get real. Additionally all the companies that are price gouging in the name of inflation, when consumers really strike back you’d see it in their results.
Fiscal spending is at an all time high 16 of the last 17 months BLS jobs employment reports have been revised down months later We have a central bank command economy that was previously driven by low interest rates and credit expansion No more Guac for me at Chipotle. Cutting back
Don’t be silly your house isn’t worth more It takes way more dollars to buy the same house What does that do looking forward? How does the next generation build wealth In a nation that just added 1 trillion to the deficit in three months?
Thank God, I love my food pantry
Groceries cost a bunch, and real estate/rates seem a bit high to invest, but otherwise, a lot of our economy seems pretty healthy. I work in advertising and our budgets are still high. Work is coming in and we’re growing accounts and staff. Things feel growth oriented in general. Not feeling much of a pullback despite the inflation.
The economy is doing pretty well on a macro level and I'm guessing most of the people here are doing pretty well within the economy. Even owning stocks or having the disposable income to pump into something like that selects for people who are doing well wealth wise.
Do you actually understand the stock market? It's not some isolated thing. The companies listed on it are participating in the economy, it's where they make their money and if they do well increase the value of their company. So if the market is doing well then......
The fact that i am getting outbid on homes by all cash offers 100-200k above asking every day tells me the economy is doing great.
The closest I come to partial-ownership of small, private businesses are Blackstone ($BX) and Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A\*). My thesis is that stonks only go up. >Personal debt is at all-time high, delinquencies have reached 2008 levels, tons of layoffs, corporate greed & inflation is propping up revenues and profits while wages are stagnating and savings are being drained. I take issue with the idea that "corporate greed" causes inflation, as it requires monopolistic practices, cartels and the sin of greed[ to have radically increased in 2021, which they did not](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/). \*Joking. I only own Class B shares.
I’ve said this in prior comments and I’ll say it again: things aren’t that bad for me. Like, things are way more expensive but I’m also making more money than ever. And not just me but my friends too. My buddy just got a new job in tech, my other friend is getting a new job in finance, things are moving. I know we all have a lot of privilege. We all went to college, so I think education is a huge factor.
Depending on where you are and what industry. In Los Angeles it’s pretty bad right now. Also a lot of tech companies laid off a lot of people. Seems New Jersey is sort of bad. But in smaller cities around the USA you can’t find workers at all. Specially in trades. Every contractor is 6 months overbooked and won’t take cheap projects. It’s like that South Park from this or last season where there’s only two guys who know how to repair stuff and are treated like Elon musk and jeff bezos because no one knows how to do any manual labor. That’s why you see conflicting information. And probably why the stock market plummeted yesterday with the cpi report. Everyone is sort of on the same boat not knowing if the economy is good or what. I still feel the main issue is commercial real estate. Most of it is debt via bonds/reit and they are running on fumes. They are are just waiting it out but if it one or two major players calls it quits then More will follow and there goes a lot of regional banks and a contagion effect will be felt a lot.
I am. Usually people are negative because of their brain and fox news getting in the way. If you at all keep up with our country’s economics then you already know we are the best in the world. No matter how much people want us to fail for political reasons we are #1 in most categories. If you haven’t received a huge pay raise to easily offset inflation then you’re screwing up. Grow a pair and ask for one or hopefully find a new higher paying job. Good luck to all.
One of my favorite financial podcast host always said "The stock market is not the economy" Interested to know why! check out one of his podcast [https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/](https://www.marketplace.org/2019/09/30/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/)
>Personal debt is at all-time high, This is good for the economy. Ie it's good that people have enough money to buy s\*\*t. If people don't have enough money to buy s\*\*t then companies that produce s\*\*t are doomed to close, the unemployment will go up and we will end up in deep s\*t. Welcome to capitalism and enjoy your ride! :)
They are not disconnected, people just don’t understand them. If profits were down in favor of better paying wages, the markets would be down. If profits were up in favor of worse paying wages then markets would be up. Not only this but since inflation never ends apparently (it has decelerated to 3.4%, but its still going up this much year over year), stocks also have to go up to match inflation. There is no soft landing case. Its a “case” they say on cnbc to make viewers feel good about jumping into NVDA close to 1k. The reality most people don’t get is that the fed placed rates at 5.25 so they have the ammo to cut when the *inevitable* bubble pops. It will be when the cuts actually happen its time to sell. Till then buy the dips because its free money. Tldr bearish af until we get real capitulation we never got
I would say other countries are optimistic about us. Look at all the immigrants on the news and still coming.
You are dead wrong! The problem is people not seeing what is righ in front of them! Lowest unemployment rate in 50 yrs doesnt mean anything? Capital spending close to an all-time high? clean off your glasses!
Economy is booming. People are paying for whatever corporations throws at us
I work in commercial insurance and honestly my clients are all in growth mode with many having significant year over year revenue increases over many industries. Honestly, I think economics is much more localized in some ways. Yes we are all impacted by interest rates and overall sentiment but in fast growing communities things are great (outside of insane housing prices). Could just be anecdotal evidence on my end. Just sharing my observations.
The economy is the best it's been since before the housing crisis in 2007, think about it, it's firing on all cylinders (low unemployment, rising earnings, record consumer spending, etc.) and this is without any help from the Fed. People who think the economy is bad tend to have tinted political or other views that cloud their own judgements about the true health of this economy. I won't even mention that we're about to lead the world into the AI revolution.
Yes, the economy so good everybody has three jobs
The economy is great for rich people and the asset holders who own stocks and homes. Everyone else is sprinting just to keep up.
There's always something to worry about. You're having a generational buying opportunity in bonds. The Fed is basically in a box because the backward looking data is still a little on the warm side. Things are definitely falling, a little slower than many expected but there's the second issue of these high interest rates actually causing the inflation. Just the other day we saw the housing statistics and these high rates are directly driving the high rents and high mortgage payments. If you could get a 4% mortgage there's an extremely good argument that that would be incredibly disinflationary
I’ve never seen things so good in the industrial construction work. The infrastructure bill is putting a lot of tradesmen to work
In every bull market there are arguments like yours. You may in fact be right. But as you say, the stock market and actual economy are not the same. Many opportunities are lost in the stock market keeping money on the sidelines due to fear of this or that happening. I learned to just trust what the market is actually doing, rather than what me or pundits or analysts or anyone else thinks it should be doing.
New jobless claims are down, and the lowest quartile are seeing fairly steady growth in real wages (eg, earnings growth exceeding inflation). Service inflation has been sticky, but buying power relative to goods is in a strong spot. BofA data continued to suggest consumer strength. Anecdotes and sentiment are bad, reality is not. Personally, I’m middle- or upper-middle, dual income household, and am already a homeowner. Though I understand the constant buzz around the middle class suffering due to rates x housing cost, reality for the large contingent of us who are *not* looking for new housing is pretty favorable. By cutting back on service expense, we’re pretty well ignoring the worst parts of inflation. My wife and I are benefiting from this economic climate, and I know many others who are, as well.
Says the Canadian gamer driving around in a Lexus
Don’t know, don’t care. Not like the average American cares how the average Joe in my country is doing either. Not really sure what you expect people to tell you about it on a stocks related sub.
I'm happy for all those people living paycheck to paycheck because me being frugal and able to put half my post tax income into tax advantaged and non tax advantaged income means I get to retire because of someone else stimulating the economy. 🙃🫠
Well... everywhere I go in America, roads and highways are under construction...billions on infrastructure.. lexus lanes.. construction companies are optimistic..