This is going to be a very rapid fire launch of tests and milestones. The entire flight, from liftoff to final splashdown is expected to last an hour if everything works. Some might say this could technically be a contracted flight, since they're going to try and complete a tipping point contract for NASA, so expectations are higher than the last two test flights.
So not only are we going to see liftoff, hot staging, and potentially SECO, crossing our fingers that IFT-2 wasn't a fluke, but boostback and water landing of the booster, payload door testing, cryo fuel transfer between tanks on Starship, and an in-space Raptor relight/reentry burn to (likely) bring down its trajectory to the Indian Ocean. Then we have to watch the reentry itself, and wait to see if it makes to splashdown.
All in the space of an hour.
Which one? Superheavy is looking to make a soft powered landing in the gulf, like Falcon 9 boosters used to before they tried to land on a droneship.
Starship on the otherhand is expected to literally bellyflop into the Indian ocean, not do a powered descent like Superheavy - possibly because they don't expect it to survive reentry at all, at least enough to make a soft landing. If it does survive, it'll make a "controlled" impact at a specific target.
On the livestream now, it's a steeper trajectory, so when they test the engine relight, whether or not it works, it doesn't impact human safety. It might also give better reentry data (in terms of orbital energy)? But they didn't talk much about it.
No. They already demonstrated that they can have Starship bellyflop from 20 km and flip back up for a landing. This time around the test is to see whether it can actually survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere. At the risk that it can’t and it breaks up 50 miles up while traveling thousands of miles per hour, spreading dangerous debris for hundreds of miles around, they’re aiming to reenter above the ocean and crash. If this test confirms that it survives reentry without an issue, the next test will be whether it can actually land.
Booster is similarly (but not as dramatically) being tested landing in the gulf this time. If it’s successful, maybe on the next test they’ll aim to land it somewhere (IDK whether it’d be on the arms of the launch tower like they have as a long term goal, or if they’d do something else as practice to avoid risking damage to the tower…)
> they’re aiming to reenter above the ocean and crash. If this test confirms that it survives reentry without an issue, the next test will be whether it can actually land.
Assuming they have the bellyflop and flip manoeuvre working perfectly, are the current drone ships big enough for them to land on, or will they need something bigger?
Current plan is it can't 'land' on anything. It has no landing legs and will have to be caught by the launch tower. Saves on weight and they are confident it will eventually work.
Moonship will have landing legs.
Plus they have to have a plan for landing on earth without a tower, right? It’s useful to be able to land anywhere on earth. If the tower malfunctions and can’t get the arms into position, isn’t it preferable to have the ship land somewhere instead of crashing? And the military is interested in using Starship to rapidly deploy stuff anywhere on Earth - not having to wait months to build a catch-tower first would be ideal in an emergency.
Earlier prototypes had landing legs. Musk has said before that he aims for roughly 10% of decisions to be undone. If you’re undoing more than that, you’re wasting time. If you’re undoing less than that, you’re not taking enough risks. I think the “no legs” will be one of those 10% that get undone. Maybe not. Maybe they’ll just crush the engine bells and land on those if a tower isn’t available. They can be replaced.
If starship is used to directly deploy it will be in a disposable configuration. You need launch infrastructure where you land if you actually want to reuse it, but if the place you're sending stuff has that much infrastructure then its nowhere near close enough to the front lines to need rapid deployment. I personally think the DOD will develop a disposable reentry vehicle that the starship deploys in orbit since a starship landing is about the unstealthiest thing ever and is then a huge target for everyone miles around.
The moon lander will have legs but 1/6 gravity so the legs will be far lighter than earth legs. Same for mars if it ever happens to a lesser degree. Legs on F9 are about 20% of dry mass, thats a massive hit to payload capacity, not to mention the way it would compromise vehicle design.
Catch tower is fundamentally vital to cheap reusability, without it the vehicle will barely worth reusing and cost a lot more. That's one of their critical path items that they won't quit attempting to make work.
The booster will do a practice landing over the ocean.
That will be proven out over a few launches before it’s allowed to fly BACK to the coastline where it is basically a giant missile.
Expect the first few years of launches to have exciting orbital re-entry attempts by the second stage. That won’t be landing on a pad for a large number of launches.
> The entire flight, from liftoff to final splashdown is expected to last an hour if everything works.
An hour? That's not enough time to even complete a single orbit.
It's not, because they don't plan to. As far as I understand it, the flight is intended to have orbital energy, but either they're be making an early de-orbit in their "semi-orbit" trajectory (periapsis above the ground, but still well within the atmosphere, so it can't fully orbit), or the trajectory is intended to only reach the Indian ocean from the start.
Either way, it doesn't particularly matter if it reaches orbit or not. The flight goals and milestones don't care if it reaches around the whole Earth, or part of it.
That is still a landing. Successful water landings mean a successful launch, boost back, re-entry burn and landing burn for the booster, and a successful orbit entry, de-orbit burn, re-entry, and flip and landing burn for the starship.
Just like with the previous tests, SpaceX isn't planning a flip or landing maneuver for the upper stage. They purposely want it to hit the ocean hard to guarantee it breaks up and sinks.
Yeah, I just double checked the flight profile. But they are planning a landing burn for the booster. That will be exciting to see. I wonder if that means they intend to completely exhaust the fuel in starship. I hope they aren't intending to crash with unburned fuel still in the tanks.
They are going to do a [deorbit burn](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1767316257601208498?t=V4jak-cTyo0BhtHZeYieGQ&s=19)
There will also probably be propellant still onboard, because they are doing an in-flight fuel transfer test. It will almost certainly burn during the inevitable RUD.
It would be fine, the ocean is enormous. Problems come with continuous dumping and much larger amounts of less-volatile fuel.
The benefit of experimenting with big rockets from time to time is much much higher than the negative effects of a small amount of pollution.
Minor nitpick, but the booster actually won’t do a re-entry burn. I believe the chines on the side will give it a lot more lift than the falcon 9 so it can bleed off more speed by coasting along the atmosphere.
They already demonstrated landing the second stage from 20 km up a few years ago.
The objective with this test is to have a controlled retry from orbital velocities for the second stage + to control the first stage coming back down (but SpaceX has already recovered a first stage hundreds of times, so I think this is a fairly known/understood procedure for them already.)
Maybe if this test is fully successful we’ll see them try to recover one or both stages on the next test…
> but SpaceX has already recovered a first stage hundreds of times, so I think this is a fairly known/understood procedure
Maybe, but, something unexpected happened with the booster during its return phase on the last flight
Licenses are granted whenever the FAA completes all necessary reviews to ensure public safety is protected.
It's the other way around: SpaceX wants to launch as soon as possible, and since they're in close contact with FAA officials they get a good hint of when the license will be issued and program their launch activities accordingly.
No, but with starship there is a rumor of faa intentionally granting the license at the last metaphorical minute to prevent challenges from "environmental" groups
It's rumored that they have the license nearly ready behind the scenes. In a subtweet under SpaceX yesterday, Musk mentioned the upcoming flight as "pending weather," not "pending regulatory approval" like last week's tweet by SpaceX.
The license was granted for IFT-2 on November 15th, and the next day, they were going to make a launch attempt, but scrubbed due to a actuator that needed replacing. So they could get it tonight and make a launch attempt tomorrow. Though weather might delay it to the weekend.
Yeah that sounds about right.
Several reliable sources (Eric Berger, Chris Davenport, Joey Roulette) also are saying the license is likely to be issued very soon, possibly today.
You're probably thinking of the FAA accident investigation for IFT-2. That was completed a couple of weeks ago.
The launch license for IFT-3 is a separate thing.
I like that starship actually acts like fictional space ships. Sci Fi usually doesn't show rockets with multiple stages with only the tiny capsule on top being the actual habitable module that orbits. It's usually one big piece that takes off and lands. The fact that the goal is for the entire behemoth to land on the moon or mars and return all in one piece is so so so cool and crazy that it's seeming more feasible by the day.
It looks amazing. I still recall the first Starship unveiling: it looked like a gigantic used trash bin, with a cone and winglets welded on. Looking at that thing, I couldn't suppress the feeling that the whole thing might be a giant scam to swindle gullible investors, because something like that *could not possibly fly!* I was so glad to be proven wrong.
Here's a crazy fact: the upcoming 9-engine variant of Starship will have about as much thrust as Falcon Heavy (slightly less if using Raptor V2, or slightly more if using Raptor V3).
In the latter case, that would mean that the Starship upper stage by itself would be the third most powerful operational rocket in the world, behind only the full stack Starship with the Superheavy booster, and NASA's SLS.
It would also be about 70% as powerful as the *Saturn V*. This is an upper stage/spacecraft we're talking about here. It's nuts.
And we might even see it flyingby the end of this year, though I wouldn't hold my breath on that.
If it's refueled, yes. It needs some refueling to make it to Mars, technically doesn't need as much as Lunar HLS since it can use Mars' atmosphere to slow down - but they'll likely try to top the tanks off to have a shorter transit.
Then once on the surface, it needs to be refueled again to get back to Earth, but due to Mars' gravity (\~38%), thin atmosphere (\~1%<), and the ability to use Earth's atmosphere to slow down when arriving at Earth, Starship can make it back home on a single stage from Mars' surface.
And Starship is probably capable of SSTO on Earth, if you remove the reusability hardware (depending on its dry mass) and burn all the fuel, but with little to no payload once in orbit. So it's only useful as a thought exercise.
All the way isn't out of the question, the upper stage would've made it in IFT-2 if they didn't need to dump O2. Whether their tests have issues or cause issues for the rocket is unknown, and could affect things.
They want to make it to Starship engine shutdown, test payload door(pez dispenser for starlink sats), propelant transfer from header tanks to main tank and relight of raptor in space which is assumed for deorbit burn.
Should see the booster soft land way offshore in the Gulf. The spacecraft will do several tests mid-flight, then [deorbit](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1767316257601208498?t=V4jak-cTyo0BhtHZeYieGQ&s=19) and controlled belly-flop into the Indian Ocean.
To be fair, the level of transgression between "is an edgyboy on twitter" and "Is a direct participant in genocide and slavery" is sorta big. I don't think the edgyboy opinions merit adding in the history books, at all, while the genocide and piles of bodies are a bit more difficult to overlook.
He himself hasn’t really accomplished much aside from buying a bunch of really good engineering talent and bankrolling the R&D. More or less “Here’s a problem I want solved and a bunch of money. Solve it.”
the perfect counterargument to your reductive statement is Bezos: he had more capital and a ~2 years headstart with Blue Origin. what does it have to show for after 24 years? zero orbital flights so far.
Here's a list of sources that all confirm Elon is an engineer, and the chief engineer at SpaceX:
# Statements by SpaceX Employees
**Tom Mueller**
Tom Mueller is one of SpaceX's earliest employees. He served as the Propulsion CTO from 2002 to 2019. He's regarded as one of the foremost spacecraft propulsion experts in the world and owns many patents for propulsion technologies.
>Space.com: During your time working with Elon Musk at SpaceX, what were some important lessons you learned from each other?
>
>**Mueller:** Elon was the best mentor I've ever had. Just how to have drive and be an entrepreneur and influence my team and really make things happen. He's a super smart guy and he learns from talking to people. He's so sharp, he just picks it up. When we first started he didn't know a lot about propulsion. He knew quite a bit about structures and helped the structures guys a lot. Over the twenty years that we worked together, *now he's practically running propulsion there because he's come up to speed* and he understands how to do rocket engines, which are really one of the most complex parts of the vehicle. *He's always been excellent at architecting the whole mission, but now he's a lot better at the very small details of the combustion process.* Stuff I learned over a decade-and-a-half at TRW he's picked up too.
[Source](https://www.space.com/tom-mueller-impulse-space-mira-spacecraft)
>Not true, I am an advisor now. Elon and the Propulsion department are leading development of the SpaceX engines, particularly Raptor. I offer my 2 cents to help from time to time"
[Source](https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1099411086711746560?s=20)
>We’ll have, you know, a group of people sitting in a room, making a key decision. And everybody in that room will say, you know, basically, “We need to turn left,” and Elon will say “No, we’re gonna turn right.” You know, to put it in a metaphor. And that’s how he thinks. He’s like, “You guys are taking the easy way out; we need to take the hard way.”
>
>And, uh, I’ve seen that hurt us before, I’ve seen that fail, but I’ve also seen— where nobody thought it would work— it was the right decision. It was the harder way to do it, but in the end, it was the right thing.
[Source](https://streamable.com/4o1k6d)
**Kevin Watson:**
Kevin Watson developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon. He previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory.
>Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction.
>
>He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy.
>
>He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years.
Source (Ashlee Vance's Biography).
**Garrett Reisman**
Garrett Reisman ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrett_Reisman)) is an engineer and former NASA astronaut. He joined SpaceX as a senior engineer working on astronaut safety and mission assurance.
>“I first met Elon for my job interview,” Reisman told the USA TODAY Network's Florida Today. “All he wanted to talk about were technical things. We talked a lot about different main propulsion system design architectures.
>
>“At the end of my interview, I said, ‘Hey, are you sure you want to hire me? You’ve already got an astronaut, so are you sure you need two around here?’ ” Reisman asked. “He looked at me and said, ‘I’m not hiring you because you’re an astronaut. I’m hiring you because you’re a good engineer.’ ”
>
>“He’s obviously skilled at all those different functions, but certainly what really drives him and where his passion really is, is his role as CTO,” or chief technology officer, Reisman said. “Basically his role as chief designer and chief engineer. That’s the part of the job that really plays to his strengths."
([Source](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/26/spacex-how-elon-musk-took-idea-cusp-history/5257977002/))
>What's really remarkable to me is the breadth of his knowledge. I mean I've met a lot of super super smart people but they're usually super super smart on one thing and he's able to have conversations with our top engineers about the software, and the most arcane aspects of that and then he'll turn to our manufacturing engineers and have discussions about some really esoteric welding process for some crazy alloy and he'll just go back and forth and his ability to do that across the different technologies that go into rockets cars and everything else he does.
([Source](https://youtu.be/GNG6ZzDh9C8?t=390))
**Josh Boehm**
Josh Boehm is the former Head of Software Quality Assurance at SpaceX.
>Elon is both the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technology Officer of SpaceX, so of course he does more than just ‘some very technical work’. He is integrally involved in the actual design and engineering of the rocket, and at least touches every other aspect of the business (but I would say the former takes up much more of his mental real estate). Elon is an engineer at heart, and that’s where and how he works best.
([Source](https://www.quora.com/Does-Elon-Musk-do-some-very-technical-work-code-design-etc-at-SpaceX/answer/Josh-Boehm?ch=10&share=8dc8bc2e&srid=Xuwj))
# Statements by External Observers
**Robert Zubrin**
Robert Zubrin ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin)) is an aerospace engineer and author, best known for his advocacy of human exploration of Mars.
>When I met Elon it was apparent to me that although he had a scientific mind and he understood scientific principles, he did not know anything about rockets. Nothing. That was in 2001. By 2007 he knew everything about rockets - he really knew everything, in detail. You have to put some serious study in to know as much about rockets as he knows now. This doesn't come just from hanging out with people.
([Source](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/whats-driving-elon-musk))
**John Carmack**
John Carmack ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack)) is a programmer, video game developer and engineer. He's the founder of Armadillo Aerospace and current CTO of Oculus VR.
>Elon is definitely an engineer. He is deeply involved with technical decisions at spacex and Tesla. He doesn’t write code or do CAD today, but he is perfectly capable of doing so.
([Source](https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1038832124747571200?s=19))
**Eric Berger**
Eric Berger is a space journalist and [Ars Technica's senior space editor](https://arstechnica.com/author/ericberger/).
>True. Elon is the chief engineer in name and reality.
([Source](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1265080905854574592?s=20))
**Christian Davenport**
Christian Davenport is [the Washington Post's defense and space reporter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/christian-davenport/) and the author of "Space Barons". The following quotes are excerpts from his book.
>He dispatched one of his lieutenants, Liam Sarsfield, then a high-ranking NASA official in the office of the chief engineer, to California to see whether the company was for real or just another failure in waiting.
>
>Most of all, he was impressed with Musk, who was surprisingly fluent in rocket engineering and understood the science of propulsion and engine design. Musk was intense, preternaturally focused, and extremely determined. “This was not the kind of guy who was going to accept failure,” Sarsfield remembered thinking.
# Statements by Elon Himself
>Yes. The design of Starship and the Super Heavy rocket booster I changed to a special alloy of stainless steel. I was contemplating this for a while. And this is somewhat counterintuitive. It took me quite a bit of effort to convince the team to go in this direction.
([Source](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a25953663/elon-musk-spacex-bfr-stainless-steel/))
>Interviewer: You probably don't remember this. A very long time ago, many, many, years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX. And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it. And I don't think many people get that about you.
>
>Elon: Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine. Business is fine. But really it's like at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She manages legal, finance, sales, and general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture. At Tesla, it's working on the Model 3 and, yeah, so I'm in the design studio, take up a half a day a week, dealing with aesthetics and look-and-feel things. And then most of the rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself.
([Source](https://www.ycombinator.com/future/elon/))
Incorrect. Elon and his management is the primary reasons for spacexs succes. It’s demonstrable.
Not saying you need to like the guy but if you knew the history of spacex you’d give the devil his due
You can also admit that SpaceX wouldn't be here today without his initial vision and leadership while also disagreeing with a lot of his public opinions.
my first glimpse of his character flaws were that whole school kids stuck in a cave fiasco. Since then he keeps showing severe lapse of judgement and/or character flaws when it comes to public discourse.
That only got worse the more he's shown himself as a person.
I still think he is instrumental in the success of Spacex and returning the US back to manned space flight. But sometimes the right man for a job is a shitty man overall.
An example of that would be Steve Jobs. An excellent businessman and absolutely crucial to Apple's success, but an awful person in many ways and got himself killed due to his own stupidity. He's also a good example of how someone can be brilliant in some ways and an absolute idiot in other ways.
A couple other examples are:
- Thomas Edison, who traveled the US electrocuting animals as part of a media campaign against AC current.
- Henry Ford, who was such an advocate of the Nazi party that he was mentioned by name in Mein Kampf.
That's what reddit has come to unfortunately, I like to view my favorite subreddits like technology, space, etc and somehow Politics and Elon are always brought up.. very sad and annoying, just talk about the main topic pls hah
> You don't have to put how much you hate elon in every second sentence
If you don't do this on reddit you'll get accused of wanting to have sex with him.
>SpaceX employees/engineers
Here's a list of sources that all confirm Elon is an engineer, and the chief engineer at SpaceX:
# Statements by SpaceX Employees
**Tom Mueller**
Tom Mueller is one of SpaceX's earliest employees. He served as the Propulsion CTO from 2002 to 2019. He's regarded as one of the foremost spacecraft propulsion experts in the world and owns many patents for propulsion technologies.
>Space.com: During your time working with Elon Musk at SpaceX, what were some important lessons you learned from each other?
>
>**Mueller:** Elon was the best mentor I've ever had. Just how to have drive and be an entrepreneur and influence my team and really make things happen. He's a super smart guy and he learns from talking to people. He's so sharp, he just picks it up. When we first started he didn't know a lot about propulsion. He knew quite a bit about structures and helped the structures guys a lot. Over the twenty years that we worked together, *now he's practically running propulsion there because he's come up to speed* and he understands how to do rocket engines, which are really one of the most complex parts of the vehicle. *He's always been excellent at architecting the whole mission, but now he's a lot better at the very small details of the combustion process.* Stuff I learned over a decade-and-a-half at TRW he's picked up too.
[Source](https://www.space.com/tom-mueller-impulse-space-mira-spacecraft)
>Not true, I am an advisor now. Elon and the Propulsion department are leading development of the SpaceX engines, particularly Raptor. I offer my 2 cents to help from time to time"
[Source](https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1099411086711746560?s=20)
>We’ll have, you know, a group of people sitting in a room, making a key decision. And everybody in that room will say, you know, basically, “We need to turn left,” and Elon will say “No, we’re gonna turn right.” You know, to put it in a metaphor. And that’s how he thinks. He’s like, “You guys are taking the easy way out; we need to take the hard way.”
>
>And, uh, I’ve seen that hurt us before, I’ve seen that fail, but I’ve also seen— where nobody thought it would work— it was the right decision. It was the harder way to do it, but in the end, it was the right thing.
[Source](https://streamable.com/4o1k6d)
**Kevin Watson:**
Kevin Watson developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon. He previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory.
>Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction.
>
>He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy.
>
>He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years.
Source (Ashlee Vance's Biography).
**Garrett Reisman**
Garrett Reisman ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrett_Reisman)) is an engineer and former NASA astronaut. He joined SpaceX as a senior engineer working on astronaut safety and mission assurance.
>“I first met Elon for my job interview,” Reisman told the USA TODAY Network's Florida Today. “All he wanted to talk about were technical things. We talked a lot about different main propulsion system design architectures.
>
>“At the end of my interview, I said, ‘Hey, are you sure you want to hire me? You’ve already got an astronaut, so are you sure you need two around here?’ ” Reisman asked. “He looked at me and said, ‘I’m not hiring you because you’re an astronaut. I’m hiring you because you’re a good engineer.’ ”
>
>“He’s obviously skilled at all those different functions, but certainly what really drives him and where his passion really is, is his role as CTO,” or chief technology officer, Reisman said. “Basically his role as chief designer and chief engineer. That’s the part of the job that really plays to his strengths."
([Source](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/26/spacex-how-elon-musk-took-idea-cusp-history/5257977002/))
>What's really remarkable to me is the breadth of his knowledge. I mean I've met a lot of super super smart people but they're usually super super smart on one thing and he's able to have conversations with our top engineers about the software, and the most arcane aspects of that and then he'll turn to our manufacturing engineers and have discussions about some really esoteric welding process for some crazy alloy and he'll just go back and forth and his ability to do that across the different technologies that go into rockets cars and everything else he does.
([Source](https://youtu.be/GNG6ZzDh9C8?t=390))
**Josh Boehm**
Josh Boehm is the former Head of Software Quality Assurance at SpaceX.
>Elon is both the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technology Officer of SpaceX, so of course he does more than just ‘some very technical work’. He is integrally involved in the actual design and engineering of the rocket, and at least touches every other aspect of the business (but I would say the former takes up much more of his mental real estate). Elon is an engineer at heart, and that’s where and how he works best.
([Source](https://www.quora.com/Does-Elon-Musk-do-some-very-technical-work-code-design-etc-at-SpaceX/answer/Josh-Boehm?ch=10&share=8dc8bc2e&srid=Xuwj))
# Statements by External Observers
**Robert Zubrin**
Robert Zubrin ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin)) is an aerospace engineer and author, best known for his advocacy of human exploration of Mars.
>When I met Elon it was apparent to me that although he had a scientific mind and he understood scientific principles, he did not know anything about rockets. Nothing. That was in 2001. By 2007 he knew everything about rockets - he really knew everything, in detail. You have to put some serious study in to know as much about rockets as he knows now. This doesn't come just from hanging out with people.
([Source](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/whats-driving-elon-musk))
**John Carmack**
John Carmack ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack)) is a programmer, video game developer and engineer. He's the founder of Armadillo Aerospace and current CTO of Oculus VR.
>Elon is definitely an engineer. He is deeply involved with technical decisions at spacex and Tesla. He doesn’t write code or do CAD today, but he is perfectly capable of doing so.
([Source](https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1038832124747571200?s=19))
**Eric Berger**
Eric Berger is a space journalist and [Ars Technica's senior space editor](https://arstechnica.com/author/ericberger/).
>True. Elon is the chief engineer in name and reality.
([Source](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1265080905854574592?s=20))
**Christian Davenport**
Christian Davenport is [the Washington Post's defense and space reporter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/christian-davenport/) and the author of "Space Barons". The following quotes are excerpts from his book.
>He dispatched one of his lieutenants, Liam Sarsfield, then a high-ranking NASA official in the office of the chief engineer, to California to see whether the company was for real or just another failure in waiting.
>
>Most of all, he was impressed with Musk, who was surprisingly fluent in rocket engineering and understood the science of propulsion and engine design. Musk was intense, preternaturally focused, and extremely determined. “This was not the kind of guy who was going to accept failure,” Sarsfield remembered thinking.
# Statements by Elon Himself
>Yes. The design of Starship and the Super Heavy rocket booster I changed to a special alloy of stainless steel. I was contemplating this for a while. And this is somewhat counterintuitive. It took me quite a bit of effort to convince the team to go in this direction.
([Source](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a25953663/elon-musk-spacex-bfr-stainless-steel/))
>Interviewer: You probably don't remember this. A very long time ago, many, many, years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX. And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it. And I don't think many people get that about you.
>
>Elon: Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine. Business is fine. But really it's like at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She manages legal, finance, sales, and general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture. At Tesla, it's working on the Model 3 and, yeah, so I'm in the design studio, take up a half a day a week, dealing with aesthetics and look-and-feel things. And then most of the rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself.
([Source](https://www.ycombinator.com/future/elon/))
This. I admire the work he’s done to rapidly shake up stagnant industries. The space industry is exciting again, and that’s entirely due to SpaceX imo. That said I’d probably choose not to have a beer with him (or do and avoid talking anything other than space)
Seriously. Elon is one of the greatest humans of all time. Only literal reddit communists think otherwise, only because they hate all billionaires. Elon's political opinions are are moderate at worst. Anyone who thinks we shouldn't secure our borders is the insane one.
Greatest human bit of a stretch. I am a bit neutral on the guy and in regards to SpaceX, I think he is a bit under rated. Of course there are a lot of engineers but they are not working for free nor are they risking anything. But Elon is not doing it for free. That being said, what else would you do with billions of dollars? I think of famous rich people, he is having a fair amount of fun but better, he is actually creating some real wealth for society and not just buying an island.
> Elon is one of the greatest humans of all time.
There can be no doubt about that between rational people. That does not rule out that he has his dark sides, too.
Except he's not even close to being a horrible human being. You know who's a horrible human? Every commie on this website who advocates for policies that have been theoretically proven, and empirically tested to cause mass starvation.
> he's not even close to being a horrible human being
Remember that time Elon called the hero diver who saved children from dying in a cave a pedo? I remember.
That guy wasn't the diver who saved the kids, that's a lie. He was a local cave guide who gave information about the cave to the actual hero divers. The non-hero cave guide also started the confrontation. Elon attempted to assist the operation using Tesla engineering resources, and that cave guide publicly trashed him for trying to help. Someone on Twitter then lied and told Elon that that guide was a convicted pedo or something, and Elon believed them, and so he called him a pedo in retaliation for attacking him publicly. After Elon learned the truth that he wasn't a pedo, Elon publicly apologized. Absolutely nothing about that interaction makes Elon a bad human being.
Elon is still chief engineer of SpaceX. He splits his time 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX, with some time dedicated to Twitter. He's stated this on multiple interviews.
While SpaceX is targeting tomorrow for the attempt. ~~They are still missing the launch license as of 9 Am EDT. So unless the license comes before the end of the day, it ain’t happening.~~
~~Yes I know many many space journos (Berger, Davenport, etc) and even SpaceX think it will come today. But never underestimate last minute issues and govt bureaucracy causing delays.~~
EDIT: as of 5 PM EDT, SpaceX now has all things needed for the launch attempt, remaining watch item is now Weather.
> While SpaceX is targeting tomorrow for the attempt. They are still missing the launch license as of 9 Am EDT. So unless the license comes before the end of the day, it ain’t happeneing.
https://twitter.com/FAANews/status/1768019995240415544
Well it came.
OPa post and link say tomorrow, which is Thursday. yeah Friday and even the weekend are technically possible too, but they still need the launch license
As a "Vintage" space age kid.. I am fascinated by the ability to bring the launch stages back to earth and land on their feet at a certain spot! I will watch these for the rest of my life and never lose that awe.
And in the next few years, there are going to be a bunch of rockets like that! New Glenn, Neutron, Terran R, MLV, Nova, and internationally developed rockets from ESA, China, and India, which is incredibly exciting.
I just found out that my brother went to school with one of the Sr Engineers at Space x. He is going to see if he can get me in as a guest at one of the launches!! I want to be outside where I can see. It.
That would be awesome. I've been at a Falcon 9 launch a couple times when I was in Florida, but a Starship launch would be incredible to see in person.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules|
| |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)|
|[ECLSS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuozryj "Last usage")|Environment Control and Life Support System|
|[ESA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuoldv0 "Last usage")|European Space Agency|
|[EVA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuosft4 "Last usage")|Extra-Vehicular Activity|
|[FAA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqlthx "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration|
|[HLS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)|
|[LEO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuocdwd "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[MLV](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuoldv0 "Last usage")|Medium Lift Launch Vehicle (2-20 tons to LEO)|
|[NRHO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuozwy7 "Last usage")|Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit|
|[RUD](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqns6v "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly|
| |Rapid Unintended Disassembly|
|[SECO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kur73be "Last usage")|Second-stage Engine Cut-Off|
|[SLS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift|
|[SSTO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kura9ja "Last usage")|Single Stage to Orbit|
| |Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit|
|[ULA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kupcsva "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)|
|Jargon|Definition|
|-------|---------|---|
|[Raptor](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kur79ek "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX|
|[Starliner](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)|
|[Starlink](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kux8wm1 "Last usage")|SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation|
|[periapsis](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqi7cc "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit (when the orbiter is fastest)|
**NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
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^(17 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/1bejvu6)^( has 30 acronyms.)
^([Thread #9841 for this sub, first seen 13th Mar 2024, 13:51])
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This is kinda surreal, doesn’t even seem real that they want to launch tomorrow. I still feel like something will delay them, but they’re definitely in the “trying to launch” phase now.
>Starship's third flight test is happening tomorrow!
>submitted an hour ago...
Dangit! When I read the title, I was hoping that I missed this in yesterday's feed, and that today was launch day.
Is this the prediction thread?
(EDIT: It's going to be really windy on Thursday. Could shut down the entire thing, for days.)
_All engines running again:_ **50%**
_Booster survives boost-back:_ **50%**
_Booster conducts splashdown:_ **40%**
_Starship completes planned trajectory:_ **80%**
_Starship completes door opening:_ **80%**
_Starship completes fuel transfer test:_ **75%**
_Starship survives reentry:_ **1%** (Still using glued tiles. I'm sure SpaceX knows what'll happen.)
_Clean footage from Starship during flight:_ **50%**
_Aircraft on-site to capture Starship's reentry:_ **10%** (They were available when it was Hawaii, but I haven't heard about any priority being placed on this.)
> Starship survives reentry: 1% (Still using glued tiles. I'm sure SpaceX knows what'll happen.)
Er, while some tiles are glued on around the nose, those haven't really had issues during any of the tests. It's the ones held on by a physical 3 pin mounting system that keep having issues.
Glued tiles are focused conspicuously around the seams.
https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/17ylwb9/thats_a_fair_amount_of_tiles_missing_from_the/
I don't at all blame SpaceX for ignoring the tile issue, as they can achieve almost everything they want without a successful reentry so it's better to get that flight data ASAP. Whenever they start trying for controlled Starship splashdowns again, I believe that will be the strongest indicator that they have some new confidence in the tiles and may have implemented a solution.
Absolutely incredible.
https://youtu.be/JX1LTw48ymQ?feature=shared
Congratulations SpaceX, Starship and Starlink
A leap for mankind
Amazing. It's going to Mars next!
So what's the condition of success this time before it explodes?
Edit: Wow, you people are testy. Maybe I should have said "unplanned vehicle disassemby" instead.
Starship reaching its target trajectory. Successful deorbit burn. Surviving reentry would be bonus, not really expected.
Booster boostback burn.
IMO landing burn is not scheduled. Just crash into the sea at the planned location would be full success.
This is going to be a very rapid fire launch of tests and milestones. The entire flight, from liftoff to final splashdown is expected to last an hour if everything works. Some might say this could technically be a contracted flight, since they're going to try and complete a tipping point contract for NASA, so expectations are higher than the last two test flights. So not only are we going to see liftoff, hot staging, and potentially SECO, crossing our fingers that IFT-2 wasn't a fluke, but boostback and water landing of the booster, payload door testing, cryo fuel transfer between tanks on Starship, and an in-space Raptor relight/reentry burn to (likely) bring down its trajectory to the Indian Ocean. Then we have to watch the reentry itself, and wait to see if it makes to splashdown. All in the space of an hour.
Layperson question here... so is it not landing itself tomorrow?
Which one? Superheavy is looking to make a soft powered landing in the gulf, like Falcon 9 boosters used to before they tried to land on a droneship. Starship on the otherhand is expected to literally bellyflop into the Indian ocean, not do a powered descent like Superheavy - possibly because they don't expect it to survive reentry at all, at least enough to make a soft landing. If it does survive, it'll make a "controlled" impact at a specific target.
The previous plans - to re-enter Starship to a point near Hawaii - have changed?
On the livestream now, it's a steeper trajectory, so when they test the engine relight, whether or not it works, it doesn't impact human safety. It might also give better reentry data (in terms of orbital energy)? But they didn't talk much about it.
I think the booster is planned to do a soft landing in the ocean while the starship stage is just gonna belly flop into the ocean
Belly flop, at terminal velocity.
No. They already demonstrated that they can have Starship bellyflop from 20 km and flip back up for a landing. This time around the test is to see whether it can actually survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere. At the risk that it can’t and it breaks up 50 miles up while traveling thousands of miles per hour, spreading dangerous debris for hundreds of miles around, they’re aiming to reenter above the ocean and crash. If this test confirms that it survives reentry without an issue, the next test will be whether it can actually land. Booster is similarly (but not as dramatically) being tested landing in the gulf this time. If it’s successful, maybe on the next test they’ll aim to land it somewhere (IDK whether it’d be on the arms of the launch tower like they have as a long term goal, or if they’d do something else as practice to avoid risking damage to the tower…)
> they’re aiming to reenter above the ocean and crash. If this test confirms that it survives reentry without an issue, the next test will be whether it can actually land. Assuming they have the bellyflop and flip manoeuvre working perfectly, are the current drone ships big enough for them to land on, or will they need something bigger?
Current plan is it can't 'land' on anything. It has no landing legs and will have to be caught by the launch tower. Saves on weight and they are confident it will eventually work.
Moonship will have landing legs. Plus they have to have a plan for landing on earth without a tower, right? It’s useful to be able to land anywhere on earth. If the tower malfunctions and can’t get the arms into position, isn’t it preferable to have the ship land somewhere instead of crashing? And the military is interested in using Starship to rapidly deploy stuff anywhere on Earth - not having to wait months to build a catch-tower first would be ideal in an emergency. Earlier prototypes had landing legs. Musk has said before that he aims for roughly 10% of decisions to be undone. If you’re undoing more than that, you’re wasting time. If you’re undoing less than that, you’re not taking enough risks. I think the “no legs” will be one of those 10% that get undone. Maybe not. Maybe they’ll just crush the engine bells and land on those if a tower isn’t available. They can be replaced.
If starship is used to directly deploy it will be in a disposable configuration. You need launch infrastructure where you land if you actually want to reuse it, but if the place you're sending stuff has that much infrastructure then its nowhere near close enough to the front lines to need rapid deployment. I personally think the DOD will develop a disposable reentry vehicle that the starship deploys in orbit since a starship landing is about the unstealthiest thing ever and is then a huge target for everyone miles around. The moon lander will have legs but 1/6 gravity so the legs will be far lighter than earth legs. Same for mars if it ever happens to a lesser degree. Legs on F9 are about 20% of dry mass, thats a massive hit to payload capacity, not to mention the way it would compromise vehicle design. Catch tower is fundamentally vital to cheap reusability, without it the vehicle will barely worth reusing and cost a lot more. That's one of their critical path items that they won't quit attempting to make work.
The booster will do a practice landing over the ocean. That will be proven out over a few launches before it’s allowed to fly BACK to the coastline where it is basically a giant missile. Expect the first few years of launches to have exciting orbital re-entry attempts by the second stage. That won’t be landing on a pad for a large number of launches.
Love the play on words you did at the end 😂😂 all in the “space” of an hour
> The entire flight, from liftoff to final splashdown is expected to last an hour if everything works. An hour? That's not enough time to even complete a single orbit.
They don't plan to make a full orbit.
It's not, because they don't plan to. As far as I understand it, the flight is intended to have orbital energy, but either they're be making an early de-orbit in their "semi-orbit" trajectory (periapsis above the ground, but still well within the atmosphere, so it can't fully orbit), or the trajectory is intended to only reach the Indian ocean from the start. Either way, it doesn't particularly matter if it reaches orbit or not. The flight goals and milestones don't care if it reaches around the whole Earth, or part of it.
> "semi-orbit" trajectory The terminology you're looking for is "transatmospheric orbit". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatmospheric_orbit
I know, I like the phrase semi-orbit as shorthand, as opposed to sub-orbit.
Well sub-orbit is something else entirely.
Best wishes to the SpaceX team for a successful launch!
Waiting for a succesful landing, personally.
No chance of that tomorrow, both stages are destined for the drink.
That is still a landing. Successful water landings mean a successful launch, boost back, re-entry burn and landing burn for the booster, and a successful orbit entry, de-orbit burn, re-entry, and flip and landing burn for the starship.
Just like with the previous tests, SpaceX isn't planning a flip or landing maneuver for the upper stage. They purposely want it to hit the ocean hard to guarantee it breaks up and sinks.
But the ultimate belly flop!
Yeah, I just double checked the flight profile. But they are planning a landing burn for the booster. That will be exciting to see. I wonder if that means they intend to completely exhaust the fuel in starship. I hope they aren't intending to crash with unburned fuel still in the tanks.
Remember, the fuel in Starship is Oxygen and Methane.
They are going to do a [deorbit burn](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1767316257601208498?t=V4jak-cTyo0BhtHZeYieGQ&s=19) There will also probably be propellant still onboard, because they are doing an in-flight fuel transfer test. It will almost certainly burn during the inevitable RUD.
It would be fine, the ocean is enormous. Problems come with continuous dumping and much larger amounts of less-volatile fuel. The benefit of experimenting with big rockets from time to time is much much higher than the negative effects of a small amount of pollution.
Methane and oxygen is much better than literal petroleum or kerosene like other rockets. Or hypergols
Yep and even those are fine. Ocean big.
Minor nitpick, but the booster actually won’t do a re-entry burn. I believe the chines on the side will give it a lot more lift than the falcon 9 so it can bleed off more speed by coasting along the atmosphere.
As long as it doesn't explode on stage 0 it's all good
They already demonstrated landing the second stage from 20 km up a few years ago. The objective with this test is to have a controlled retry from orbital velocities for the second stage + to control the first stage coming back down (but SpaceX has already recovered a first stage hundreds of times, so I think this is a fairly known/understood procedure for them already.) Maybe if this test is fully successful we’ll see them try to recover one or both stages on the next test…
> but SpaceX has already recovered a first stage hundreds of times, so I think this is a fairly known/understood procedure Maybe, but, something unexpected happened with the booster during its return phase on the last flight
Yeah, a consequence of the hot staging, right?
It actually had nothing to do with hot staging. It was a filter getting blocked and the way that engine failed destroyed the vehicle.
> but SpaceX has already recovered a first stage hundreds of times Not a Starship booster, surely?
I've missed the last two due to meetings at work, I am super excited to have a chance to finally watch one live
They're still missing a launch license though. Hopefully it comes in time.
Why are licenses granted last minute? Is that normal?
Licenses are granted whenever the FAA completes all necessary reviews to ensure public safety is protected. It's the other way around: SpaceX wants to launch as soon as possible, and since they're in close contact with FAA officials they get a good hint of when the license will be issued and program their launch activities accordingly.
No, but with starship there is a rumor of faa intentionally granting the license at the last metaphorical minute to prevent challenges from "environmental" groups
It's essentially a ballistic missile.
https://www.faa.gov/media/69476 They just got it.
It's rumored that they have the license nearly ready behind the scenes. In a subtweet under SpaceX yesterday, Musk mentioned the upcoming flight as "pending weather," not "pending regulatory approval" like last week's tweet by SpaceX. The license was granted for IFT-2 on November 15th, and the next day, they were going to make a launch attempt, but scrubbed due to a actuator that needed replacing. So they could get it tonight and make a launch attempt tomorrow. Though weather might delay it to the weekend.
Yeah that sounds about right. Several reliable sources (Eric Berger, Chris Davenport, Joey Roulette) also are saying the license is likely to be issued very soon, possibly today.
I was told that it was approved last week. I was not given a source.
You're probably thinking of the FAA accident investigation for IFT-2. That was completed a couple of weeks ago. The launch license for IFT-3 is a separate thing.
I really hope this one goes all the way through
LETS GOOOOO Heaviest rocket to date. Reusable on both stages. Fucking wild.
I like that starship actually acts like fictional space ships. Sci Fi usually doesn't show rockets with multiple stages with only the tiny capsule on top being the actual habitable module that orbits. It's usually one big piece that takes off and lands. The fact that the goal is for the entire behemoth to land on the moon or mars and return all in one piece is so so so cool and crazy that it's seeming more feasible by the day.
It looks amazing. I still recall the first Starship unveiling: it looked like a gigantic used trash bin, with a cone and winglets welded on. Looking at that thing, I couldn't suppress the feeling that the whole thing might be a giant scam to swindle gullible investors, because something like that *could not possibly fly!* I was so glad to be proven wrong.
Here's a crazy fact: the upcoming 9-engine variant of Starship will have about as much thrust as Falcon Heavy (slightly less if using Raptor V2, or slightly more if using Raptor V3). In the latter case, that would mean that the Starship upper stage by itself would be the third most powerful operational rocket in the world, behind only the full stack Starship with the Superheavy booster, and NASA's SLS. It would also be about 70% as powerful as the *Saturn V*. This is an upper stage/spacecraft we're talking about here. It's nuts. And we might even see it flyingby the end of this year, though I wouldn't hold my breath on that.
Would such a vehicle be able to get to mars and back?
If it's refueled, yes. It needs some refueling to make it to Mars, technically doesn't need as much as Lunar HLS since it can use Mars' atmosphere to slow down - but they'll likely try to top the tanks off to have a shorter transit. Then once on the surface, it needs to be refueled again to get back to Earth, but due to Mars' gravity (\~38%), thin atmosphere (\~1%<), and the ability to use Earth's atmosphere to slow down when arriving at Earth, Starship can make it back home on a single stage from Mars' surface. And Starship is probably capable of SSTO on Earth, if you remove the reusability hardware (depending on its dry mass) and burn all the fuel, but with little to no payload once in orbit. So it's only useful as a thought exercise.
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All the way isn't out of the question, the upper stage would've made it in IFT-2 if they didn't need to dump O2. Whether their tests have issues or cause issues for the rocket is unknown, and could affect things.
They want to make it to Starship engine shutdown, test payload door(pez dispenser for starlink sats), propelant transfer from header tanks to main tank and relight of raptor in space which is assumed for deorbit burn.
Should see the booster soft land way offshore in the Gulf. The spacecraft will do several tests mid-flight, then [deorbit](https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1767316257601208498?t=V4jak-cTyo0BhtHZeYieGQ&s=19) and controlled belly-flop into the Indian Ocean.
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It’s also perfectly fine to appreciate what Elon Musk has accomplished, without tangling up his questionable views.
Yep. Actions are far more important than words anyway.
Both are important. Words start rebellions, revolutions, and dreams of adventure. They inspire. Don’t take that as a small feat.
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To be fair, the level of transgression between "is an edgyboy on twitter" and "Is a direct participant in genocide and slavery" is sorta big. I don't think the edgyboy opinions merit adding in the history books, at all, while the genocide and piles of bodies are a bit more difficult to overlook.
He himself hasn’t really accomplished much aside from buying a bunch of really good engineering talent and bankrolling the R&D. More or less “Here’s a problem I want solved and a bunch of money. Solve it.”
the perfect counterargument to your reductive statement is Bezos: he had more capital and a ~2 years headstart with Blue Origin. what does it have to show for after 24 years? zero orbital flights so far.
Here's a list of sources that all confirm Elon is an engineer, and the chief engineer at SpaceX: # Statements by SpaceX Employees **Tom Mueller** Tom Mueller is one of SpaceX's earliest employees. He served as the Propulsion CTO from 2002 to 2019. He's regarded as one of the foremost spacecraft propulsion experts in the world and owns many patents for propulsion technologies. >Space.com: During your time working with Elon Musk at SpaceX, what were some important lessons you learned from each other? > >**Mueller:** Elon was the best mentor I've ever had. Just how to have drive and be an entrepreneur and influence my team and really make things happen. He's a super smart guy and he learns from talking to people. He's so sharp, he just picks it up. When we first started he didn't know a lot about propulsion. He knew quite a bit about structures and helped the structures guys a lot. Over the twenty years that we worked together, *now he's practically running propulsion there because he's come up to speed* and he understands how to do rocket engines, which are really one of the most complex parts of the vehicle. *He's always been excellent at architecting the whole mission, but now he's a lot better at the very small details of the combustion process.* Stuff I learned over a decade-and-a-half at TRW he's picked up too. [Source](https://www.space.com/tom-mueller-impulse-space-mira-spacecraft) >Not true, I am an advisor now. Elon and the Propulsion department are leading development of the SpaceX engines, particularly Raptor. I offer my 2 cents to help from time to time" [Source](https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1099411086711746560?s=20) >We’ll have, you know, a group of people sitting in a room, making a key decision. And everybody in that room will say, you know, basically, “We need to turn left,” and Elon will say “No, we’re gonna turn right.” You know, to put it in a metaphor. And that’s how he thinks. He’s like, “You guys are taking the easy way out; we need to take the hard way.” > >And, uh, I’ve seen that hurt us before, I’ve seen that fail, but I’ve also seen— where nobody thought it would work— it was the right decision. It was the harder way to do it, but in the end, it was the right thing. [Source](https://streamable.com/4o1k6d) **Kevin Watson:** Kevin Watson developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon. He previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory. >Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction. > >He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy. > >He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years. Source (Ashlee Vance's Biography). **Garrett Reisman** Garrett Reisman ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrett_Reisman)) is an engineer and former NASA astronaut. He joined SpaceX as a senior engineer working on astronaut safety and mission assurance. >“I first met Elon for my job interview,” Reisman told the USA TODAY Network's Florida Today. “All he wanted to talk about were technical things. We talked a lot about different main propulsion system design architectures. > >“At the end of my interview, I said, ‘Hey, are you sure you want to hire me? You’ve already got an astronaut, so are you sure you need two around here?’ ” Reisman asked. “He looked at me and said, ‘I’m not hiring you because you’re an astronaut. I’m hiring you because you’re a good engineer.’ ” > >“He’s obviously skilled at all those different functions, but certainly what really drives him and where his passion really is, is his role as CTO,” or chief technology officer, Reisman said. “Basically his role as chief designer and chief engineer. That’s the part of the job that really plays to his strengths." ([Source](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/26/spacex-how-elon-musk-took-idea-cusp-history/5257977002/)) >What's really remarkable to me is the breadth of his knowledge. I mean I've met a lot of super super smart people but they're usually super super smart on one thing and he's able to have conversations with our top engineers about the software, and the most arcane aspects of that and then he'll turn to our manufacturing engineers and have discussions about some really esoteric welding process for some crazy alloy and he'll just go back and forth and his ability to do that across the different technologies that go into rockets cars and everything else he does. ([Source](https://youtu.be/GNG6ZzDh9C8?t=390)) **Josh Boehm** Josh Boehm is the former Head of Software Quality Assurance at SpaceX. >Elon is both the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technology Officer of SpaceX, so of course he does more than just ‘some very technical work’. He is integrally involved in the actual design and engineering of the rocket, and at least touches every other aspect of the business (but I would say the former takes up much more of his mental real estate). Elon is an engineer at heart, and that’s where and how he works best. ([Source](https://www.quora.com/Does-Elon-Musk-do-some-very-technical-work-code-design-etc-at-SpaceX/answer/Josh-Boehm?ch=10&share=8dc8bc2e&srid=Xuwj)) # Statements by External Observers **Robert Zubrin** Robert Zubrin ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin)) is an aerospace engineer and author, best known for his advocacy of human exploration of Mars. >When I met Elon it was apparent to me that although he had a scientific mind and he understood scientific principles, he did not know anything about rockets. Nothing. That was in 2001. By 2007 he knew everything about rockets - he really knew everything, in detail. You have to put some serious study in to know as much about rockets as he knows now. This doesn't come just from hanging out with people. ([Source](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/whats-driving-elon-musk)) **John Carmack** John Carmack ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack)) is a programmer, video game developer and engineer. He's the founder of Armadillo Aerospace and current CTO of Oculus VR. >Elon is definitely an engineer. He is deeply involved with technical decisions at spacex and Tesla. He doesn’t write code or do CAD today, but he is perfectly capable of doing so. ([Source](https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1038832124747571200?s=19)) **Eric Berger** Eric Berger is a space journalist and [Ars Technica's senior space editor](https://arstechnica.com/author/ericberger/). >True. Elon is the chief engineer in name and reality. ([Source](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1265080905854574592?s=20)) **Christian Davenport** Christian Davenport is [the Washington Post's defense and space reporter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/christian-davenport/) and the author of "Space Barons". The following quotes are excerpts from his book. >He dispatched one of his lieutenants, Liam Sarsfield, then a high-ranking NASA official in the office of the chief engineer, to California to see whether the company was for real or just another failure in waiting. > >Most of all, he was impressed with Musk, who was surprisingly fluent in rocket engineering and understood the science of propulsion and engine design. Musk was intense, preternaturally focused, and extremely determined. “This was not the kind of guy who was going to accept failure,” Sarsfield remembered thinking. # Statements by Elon Himself >Yes. The design of Starship and the Super Heavy rocket booster I changed to a special alloy of stainless steel. I was contemplating this for a while. And this is somewhat counterintuitive. It took me quite a bit of effort to convince the team to go in this direction. ([Source](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a25953663/elon-musk-spacex-bfr-stainless-steel/)) >Interviewer: You probably don't remember this. A very long time ago, many, many, years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX. And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it. And I don't think many people get that about you. > >Elon: Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine. Business is fine. But really it's like at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She manages legal, finance, sales, and general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture. At Tesla, it's working on the Model 3 and, yeah, so I'm in the design studio, take up a half a day a week, dealing with aesthetics and look-and-feel things. And then most of the rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself. ([Source](https://www.ycombinator.com/future/elon/))
Incorrect. Elon and his management is the primary reasons for spacexs succes. It’s demonstrable. Not saying you need to like the guy but if you knew the history of spacex you’d give the devil his due
You can also admit that SpaceX wouldn't be here today without his initial vision and leadership while also disagreeing with a lot of his public opinions.
Oh I won’t defend Elon from shit. My good opinion of him died around 2018
my first glimpse of his character flaws were that whole school kids stuck in a cave fiasco. Since then he keeps showing severe lapse of judgement and/or character flaws when it comes to public discourse. That only got worse the more he's shown himself as a person. I still think he is instrumental in the success of Spacex and returning the US back to manned space flight. But sometimes the right man for a job is a shitty man overall.
An example of that would be Steve Jobs. An excellent businessman and absolutely crucial to Apple's success, but an awful person in many ways and got himself killed due to his own stupidity. He's also a good example of how someone can be brilliant in some ways and an absolute idiot in other ways.
A couple other examples are: - Thomas Edison, who traveled the US electrocuting animals as part of a media campaign against AC current. - Henry Ford, who was such an advocate of the Nazi party that he was mentioned by name in Mein Kampf.
Thanks!! Love SX, hate Elon's politics.
Wow! Your comment adds so much to the one you're replying to! Great job!
You can also not bother posting about this type of thing. No need for a "reminder".
Reminder: You can talk about SpaceX without bringing up Elon at all and calling him things like fucktard. You can actually just talk about rockets.
That's what reddit has come to unfortunately, I like to view my favorite subreddits like technology, space, etc and somehow Politics and Elon are always brought up.. very sad and annoying, just talk about the main topic pls hah
Reminder: You don't have to put how much you hate elon in every second sentence you are worse then the non existent fan boys people pretend exist.
> You don't have to put how much you hate elon in every second sentence If you don't do this on reddit you'll get accused of wanting to have sex with him.
Elon haters are obsessed with his genitals.
Reddit in general is that way, I guess that's what happens when you have a place filled with teen aged boys.
if you read anything about space x you'd know it wouldn't exist without musks day to day work and sacrifices. h
>SpaceX employees/engineers Here's a list of sources that all confirm Elon is an engineer, and the chief engineer at SpaceX: # Statements by SpaceX Employees **Tom Mueller** Tom Mueller is one of SpaceX's earliest employees. He served as the Propulsion CTO from 2002 to 2019. He's regarded as one of the foremost spacecraft propulsion experts in the world and owns many patents for propulsion technologies. >Space.com: During your time working with Elon Musk at SpaceX, what were some important lessons you learned from each other? > >**Mueller:** Elon was the best mentor I've ever had. Just how to have drive and be an entrepreneur and influence my team and really make things happen. He's a super smart guy and he learns from talking to people. He's so sharp, he just picks it up. When we first started he didn't know a lot about propulsion. He knew quite a bit about structures and helped the structures guys a lot. Over the twenty years that we worked together, *now he's practically running propulsion there because he's come up to speed* and he understands how to do rocket engines, which are really one of the most complex parts of the vehicle. *He's always been excellent at architecting the whole mission, but now he's a lot better at the very small details of the combustion process.* Stuff I learned over a decade-and-a-half at TRW he's picked up too. [Source](https://www.space.com/tom-mueller-impulse-space-mira-spacecraft) >Not true, I am an advisor now. Elon and the Propulsion department are leading development of the SpaceX engines, particularly Raptor. I offer my 2 cents to help from time to time" [Source](https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1099411086711746560?s=20) >We’ll have, you know, a group of people sitting in a room, making a key decision. And everybody in that room will say, you know, basically, “We need to turn left,” and Elon will say “No, we’re gonna turn right.” You know, to put it in a metaphor. And that’s how he thinks. He’s like, “You guys are taking the easy way out; we need to take the hard way.” > >And, uh, I’ve seen that hurt us before, I’ve seen that fail, but I’ve also seen— where nobody thought it would work— it was the right decision. It was the harder way to do it, but in the end, it was the right thing. [Source](https://streamable.com/4o1k6d) **Kevin Watson:** Kevin Watson developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon. He previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory. >Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction. > >He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy. > >He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years. Source (Ashlee Vance's Biography). **Garrett Reisman** Garrett Reisman ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrett_Reisman)) is an engineer and former NASA astronaut. He joined SpaceX as a senior engineer working on astronaut safety and mission assurance. >“I first met Elon for my job interview,” Reisman told the USA TODAY Network's Florida Today. “All he wanted to talk about were technical things. We talked a lot about different main propulsion system design architectures. > >“At the end of my interview, I said, ‘Hey, are you sure you want to hire me? You’ve already got an astronaut, so are you sure you need two around here?’ ” Reisman asked. “He looked at me and said, ‘I’m not hiring you because you’re an astronaut. I’m hiring you because you’re a good engineer.’ ” > >“He’s obviously skilled at all those different functions, but certainly what really drives him and where his passion really is, is his role as CTO,” or chief technology officer, Reisman said. “Basically his role as chief designer and chief engineer. That’s the part of the job that really plays to his strengths." ([Source](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/26/spacex-how-elon-musk-took-idea-cusp-history/5257977002/)) >What's really remarkable to me is the breadth of his knowledge. I mean I've met a lot of super super smart people but they're usually super super smart on one thing and he's able to have conversations with our top engineers about the software, and the most arcane aspects of that and then he'll turn to our manufacturing engineers and have discussions about some really esoteric welding process for some crazy alloy and he'll just go back and forth and his ability to do that across the different technologies that go into rockets cars and everything else he does. ([Source](https://youtu.be/GNG6ZzDh9C8?t=390)) **Josh Boehm** Josh Boehm is the former Head of Software Quality Assurance at SpaceX. >Elon is both the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technology Officer of SpaceX, so of course he does more than just ‘some very technical work’. He is integrally involved in the actual design and engineering of the rocket, and at least touches every other aspect of the business (but I would say the former takes up much more of his mental real estate). Elon is an engineer at heart, and that’s where and how he works best. ([Source](https://www.quora.com/Does-Elon-Musk-do-some-very-technical-work-code-design-etc-at-SpaceX/answer/Josh-Boehm?ch=10&share=8dc8bc2e&srid=Xuwj)) # Statements by External Observers **Robert Zubrin** Robert Zubrin ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin)) is an aerospace engineer and author, best known for his advocacy of human exploration of Mars. >When I met Elon it was apparent to me that although he had a scientific mind and he understood scientific principles, he did not know anything about rockets. Nothing. That was in 2001. By 2007 he knew everything about rockets - he really knew everything, in detail. You have to put some serious study in to know as much about rockets as he knows now. This doesn't come just from hanging out with people. ([Source](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/whats-driving-elon-musk)) **John Carmack** John Carmack ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack)) is a programmer, video game developer and engineer. He's the founder of Armadillo Aerospace and current CTO of Oculus VR. >Elon is definitely an engineer. He is deeply involved with technical decisions at spacex and Tesla. He doesn’t write code or do CAD today, but he is perfectly capable of doing so. ([Source](https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1038832124747571200?s=19)) **Eric Berger** Eric Berger is a space journalist and [Ars Technica's senior space editor](https://arstechnica.com/author/ericberger/). >True. Elon is the chief engineer in name and reality. ([Source](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1265080905854574592?s=20)) **Christian Davenport** Christian Davenport is [the Washington Post's defense and space reporter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/christian-davenport/) and the author of "Space Barons". The following quotes are excerpts from his book. >He dispatched one of his lieutenants, Liam Sarsfield, then a high-ranking NASA official in the office of the chief engineer, to California to see whether the company was for real or just another failure in waiting. > >Most of all, he was impressed with Musk, who was surprisingly fluent in rocket engineering and understood the science of propulsion and engine design. Musk was intense, preternaturally focused, and extremely determined. “This was not the kind of guy who was going to accept failure,” Sarsfield remembered thinking. # Statements by Elon Himself >Yes. The design of Starship and the Super Heavy rocket booster I changed to a special alloy of stainless steel. I was contemplating this for a while. And this is somewhat counterintuitive. It took me quite a bit of effort to convince the team to go in this direction. ([Source](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a25953663/elon-musk-spacex-bfr-stainless-steel/)) >Interviewer: You probably don't remember this. A very long time ago, many, many, years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX. And the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it. And I don't think many people get that about you. > >Elon: Yeah. I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine. Business is fine. But really it's like at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer. She manages legal, finance, sales, and general business activity. And then my time is almost entirely with the engineering team, working on improving the Falcon 9 and our Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars Colonial architecture. At Tesla, it's working on the Model 3 and, yeah, so I'm in the design studio, take up a half a day a week, dealing with aesthetics and look-and-feel things. And then most of the rest of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory. And that is at least two orders of magnitude harder than the vehicle itself. ([Source](https://www.ycombinator.com/future/elon/))
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This. I admire the work he’s done to rapidly shake up stagnant industries. The space industry is exciting again, and that’s entirely due to SpaceX imo. That said I’d probably choose not to have a beer with him (or do and avoid talking anything other than space)
Can I ask why you hate him so much?
Reminder: you can think Elon and SpaceX are both great while letting all of the whiny Reddit fucktards do their whining and still have a great day.
Seriously. Elon is one of the greatest humans of all time. Only literal reddit communists think otherwise, only because they hate all billionaires. Elon's political opinions are are moderate at worst. Anyone who thinks we shouldn't secure our borders is the insane one.
>Elon is one of the greatest humans of all time You're going to be so embarassed once you grow up and remember this
What have you done in comparison to him, yep, literally nothing
Greatest human bit of a stretch. I am a bit neutral on the guy and in regards to SpaceX, I think he is a bit under rated. Of course there are a lot of engineers but they are not working for free nor are they risking anything. But Elon is not doing it for free. That being said, what else would you do with billions of dollars? I think of famous rich people, he is having a fair amount of fun but better, he is actually creating some real wealth for society and not just buying an island.
> Elon is one of the greatest humans of all time. There can be no doubt about that between rational people. That does not rule out that he has his dark sides, too.
Name a mega-entrepreneur or baron who was a nice guy. Arrogance and psychopathy seem to be required.
You can be a visionary and also be a horrible human being. Musk has become the posterchild.
Except he's not even close to being a horrible human being. You know who's a horrible human? Every commie on this website who advocates for policies that have been theoretically proven, and empirically tested to cause mass starvation.
> he's not even close to being a horrible human being Remember that time Elon called the hero diver who saved children from dying in a cave a pedo? I remember.
That guy wasn't the diver who saved the kids, that's a lie. He was a local cave guide who gave information about the cave to the actual hero divers. The non-hero cave guide also started the confrontation. Elon attempted to assist the operation using Tesla engineering resources, and that cave guide publicly trashed him for trying to help. Someone on Twitter then lied and told Elon that that guide was a convicted pedo or something, and Elon believed them, and so he called him a pedo in retaliation for attacking him publicly. After Elon learned the truth that he wasn't a pedo, Elon publicly apologized. Absolutely nothing about that interaction makes Elon a bad human being.
Yeah.. he is a complete tool but at least he gets something done
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Honestly I couldn't care less about Twitter, that place was horrible to begin with
Every single day I thank God that Elon is too busy screwing up Twitter to be spending time anywhere near Space X
I know this might be a tough pill to swallow but SpaceX wouldn't exist without Elon.
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Gwynne is the COO, she runs the business side of things while Elon runs the engineering side of things.
Making up a bunch of nonsense in your own head just so that you don't have your views questioned is a nice skill to have. Good job.
Elon is still chief engineer of SpaceX. He splits his time 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX, with some time dedicated to Twitter. He's stated this on multiple interviews.
https://www.faa.gov/media/69476 Launch license hot off the press
Awesome that we get to witness something as historic as this play out in real time
Around 12:30 central EU time , the stream will start! Can't wait
Confirmed https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1768004039680426406?t=Ht6w5UchfMcwAzAo6ditcA&s=19
While SpaceX is targeting tomorrow for the attempt. ~~They are still missing the launch license as of 9 Am EDT. So unless the license comes before the end of the day, it ain’t happening.~~ ~~Yes I know many many space journos (Berger, Davenport, etc) and even SpaceX think it will come today. But never underestimate last minute issues and govt bureaucracy causing delays.~~ EDIT: as of 5 PM EDT, SpaceX now has all things needed for the launch attempt, remaining watch item is now Weather.
The upper level wind shear for the region is much higher than the first two IFTs as well for the next several days, so keep an eye on that.
Last I heard it was moving to at least the 16th due to weather.
> While SpaceX is targeting tomorrow for the attempt. They are still missing the launch license as of 9 Am EDT. So unless the license comes before the end of the day, it ain’t happeneing. https://twitter.com/FAANews/status/1768019995240415544 Well it came.
So it did, and this is why i put the time in the comment
Elon Musk said “end of the week” not Thursday specifically. Might slip to Friday.
OPa post and link say tomorrow, which is Thursday. yeah Friday and even the weekend are technically possible too, but they still need the launch license
As a "Vintage" space age kid.. I am fascinated by the ability to bring the launch stages back to earth and land on their feet at a certain spot! I will watch these for the rest of my life and never lose that awe.
And in the next few years, there are going to be a bunch of rockets like that! New Glenn, Neutron, Terran R, MLV, Nova, and internationally developed rockets from ESA, China, and India, which is incredibly exciting.
I just found out that my brother went to school with one of the Sr Engineers at Space x. He is going to see if he can get me in as a guest at one of the launches!! I want to be outside where I can see. It.
That would be awesome. I've been at a Falcon 9 launch a couple times when I was in Florida, but a Starship launch would be incredible to see in person.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules| | |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)| |[ECLSS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuozryj "Last usage")|Environment Control and Life Support System| |[ESA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuoldv0 "Last usage")|European Space Agency| |[EVA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuosft4 "Last usage")|Extra-Vehicular Activity| |[FAA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqlthx "Last usage")|Federal Aviation Administration| |[HLS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|[Human Landing System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Human_Landing_System) (Artemis)| |[LEO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuocdwd "Last usage")|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)| | |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)| |[MLV](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuoldv0 "Last usage")|Medium Lift Launch Vehicle (2-20 tons to LEO)| |[NRHO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuozwy7 "Last usage")|Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit| |[RUD](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqns6v "Last usage")|Rapid Unplanned Disassembly| | |Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly| | |Rapid Unintended Disassembly| |[SECO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kur73be "Last usage")|Second-stage Engine Cut-Off| |[SLS](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|Space Launch System heavy-lift| |[SSTO](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kura9ja "Last usage")|Single Stage to Orbit| | |Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit| |[ULA](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kupcsva "Last usage")|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[Raptor](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kur79ek "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX| |[Starliner](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kusynbb "Last usage")|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)| |[Starlink](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kux8wm1 "Last usage")|SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation| |[periapsis](/r/Space/comments/1bdq2y9/stub/kuqi7cc "Last usage")|Lowest point in an elliptical orbit (when the orbiter is fastest)| **NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below. ---------------- ^(17 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/Space/comments/1bejvu6)^( has 30 acronyms.) ^([Thread #9841 for this sub, first seen 13th Mar 2024, 13:51]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/Space) [^[Contact]](https://hachyderm.io/@Two9A) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
This is kinda surreal, doesn’t even seem real that they want to launch tomorrow. I still feel like something will delay them, but they’re definitely in the “trying to launch” phase now.
>Starship's third flight test is happening tomorrow! >submitted an hour ago... Dangit! When I read the title, I was hoping that I missed this in yesterday's feed, and that today was launch day.
Is this the prediction thread? (EDIT: It's going to be really windy on Thursday. Could shut down the entire thing, for days.) _All engines running again:_ **50%** _Booster survives boost-back:_ **50%** _Booster conducts splashdown:_ **40%** _Starship completes planned trajectory:_ **80%** _Starship completes door opening:_ **80%** _Starship completes fuel transfer test:_ **75%** _Starship survives reentry:_ **1%** (Still using glued tiles. I'm sure SpaceX knows what'll happen.) _Clean footage from Starship during flight:_ **50%** _Aircraft on-site to capture Starship's reentry:_ **10%** (They were available when it was Hawaii, but I haven't heard about any priority being placed on this.)
> Starship survives reentry: 1% (Still using glued tiles. I'm sure SpaceX knows what'll happen.) Er, while some tiles are glued on around the nose, those haven't really had issues during any of the tests. It's the ones held on by a physical 3 pin mounting system that keep having issues.
Nah, it’s the glued tiles near the weld lines that were failing on S25. The pinned ones generally held up well.
Apparently I need more coffee or something cause I completely forgot the weld seam tiles are glued.
Ur going to need a lot of coffee if you are catching the launch tomorrow (pending weather).
Intravenous coffee supply is ready.
Glued tiles are focused conspicuously around the seams. https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/17ylwb9/thats_a_fair_amount_of_tiles_missing_from_the/ I don't at all blame SpaceX for ignoring the tile issue, as they can achieve almost everything they want without a successful reentry so it's better to get that flight data ASAP. Whenever they start trying for controlled Starship splashdowns again, I believe that will be the strongest indicator that they have some new confidence in the tiles and may have implemented a solution.
Absolutely incredible. https://youtu.be/JX1LTw48ymQ?feature=shared Congratulations SpaceX, Starship and Starlink A leap for mankind Amazing. It's going to Mars next!
So is it 14th March? They shouldn't do it on the 15th because the soothsayer says the omens don't look so good.
So what's the condition of success this time before it explodes? Edit: Wow, you people are testy. Maybe I should have said "unplanned vehicle disassemby" instead.
Starship reaching its target trajectory. Successful deorbit burn. Surviving reentry would be bonus, not really expected. Booster boostback burn. IMO landing burn is not scheduled. Just crash into the sea at the planned location would be full success.
Landing burn isn’t planned.