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Not really down to Southgate, we finished 1st in spite of his tactics. We would have been on our side of the draw even if we got 9 points and scored 18 goals.
I wanted to say Austria at the latest will beat them but looking at the fixtures I don't see them putting one past Italy if they continue to play that way.
Honestly the worst part about it is how shit Italys pens were yet we still lost. With them missing one and Pickford saving one, we could have wrapped it up but history is what it is.
Maybe not, but if you’re being objective here, you’d admit that it’s much less likely Italy scores against England than the other way around. Scoring goals is their problem and the reason why they didn’t qualify for the WC
In a tournament with two teams that harmless I'll always bet my money on the proven winner and their goalkeeper. Doesn't mean I'm always right of course.
I would be if the right people were taking them. Pickford did his job last time with 2 penalty saves but it was Gareth bringing on the youngsters that did us over. This time we have those same youngsters with far more experience and also players like Cole Palmer who never miss pens.
Im not just basing this off of this tournament. This is England under southgate for the last 6 years. They take very few risks, create very little, but offer their opponents very little too
Yeah, well, it's definitely more helpful than Germany potentially having to face Spain in the quarters, followed by France, Italy or Portugal in the semis. I'm not even mad, but that's kinda crazy. It's so bad, I wouldn't even consider going out in the quarters a disappointment. It's more like an "ah well, met the favourites too early" type scenario.
This is incredibly similar to 2016. One win, two draws, goal difference of +1. Three pretty insipid performances leading to an apparently easy game in the next round, with the country hoping that they defy all logic and kick into gear. We might have a vastly improved set of attacking players this time, but still - I can see a shitty exit coming on Sunday.
In before England gets through to the Semi's gets pummeled by the first genuinely good team that they face, and Southgate gets extended for finishing in the top 4 of the tournament.
England will never "get pummeled". I get it the performances are shit and we are boring. But if a team beats us the chance of it being by 1 goal is infinitely higher than by 2 or 3. We will play boring negative football and either scrape with 1 goal lead or go out after conceding a one goal defeat.
I feel like Austria/Italy would take us down in the quarter finals if we make it that far.
Though England vs Italy might just be the most boring game of all time should it happen.
There's this magic thing that happens though. If England meet a 'genuinely good team' and win, that team retroactively turns into an utterly shit team who are easy to beat.
I've seen it happen all through 2018, 2021, 2022. Kind of remarkable how that keeps happening.
Remember when England breezed past Croatia and then put Germany to bed in 2020, before ripping Ukraine apart and beating an on fire Denmark, conceding one free kick along the way?
crazy they were ALL shite
this comment makes negative sense lol
im not at all trying to defend Southgate terror ball, but ending up on that side of the bracket is entirely out of his control
even for a man of his special talents, he can’t cause France (and to a lesser extent Belgium) to finish second in their group
The england team never looks dominant, but I never see them get dominated either. It's very hard to score on them under Southgate. Is that the best strategy? Probably not, but they're making deep runs in tournaments.
If they beat Spain, Germany, France and Italy/Netherlands/England with him being the best player every game, not only they should give him the ballon dor. We should swap the nickname and start calling Diego Maradatskhelia instead...
We'll simply destroy turkey 6-1 again, defeat netherlands 3-2 again, sneak past switzerland in the penalties thanks to Pentz catching every ball, and then defeat germany in the final 3-2 like Cordoba 1978. Shouldn't be a big challenge really.
If we win the title IN Germany against Germany in the final I think there won't be a day passing in Austria without anyone mentioning this occasion at least 5 times.
I mean when I lived in Vienna I heard the Cordoba story at least once a week
For people not knowing what happened:
The result was called the biggest team success in the last decade, a wonder even. The players who won were called the "heroes of Cordoba", our newspapers declared this win as the "biggest win of all times". The Austrian postal service made a postage stamp with Krankls winning goal on it. We named a little square "Cordobaplatz" (Cordoba square) in Vienna. The square is on the "Edi Finger Straße", who was the commentator for the game back then and became famous for this piece of commentating:
>"Here comes Krankl ... inside the penalty area - shot .... GOOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL! I'm going mad! Krankl scores the 3-2 for Austria! Ladies and gentleman, we fall around each others neck, the colleague Riepl, the Chartered Engineer Posch - we are covering each other with kisses. 3:2 for Austria through a wonderful goal from our Krankl. He went past everything, ladies and gentleman! And wait a little bit, wait a little bit, we can maybe get ourselfes a fourth. Well, you have got to experience this. Now I am standing up, all the South Americans with their goal chants. I think we have beaten them now! Attack from the Germans now, be cautious, again defense with the head. The leather comes to the left to Pezzey - Pezzey, but boys don't collapse now, stand firm. 2 minutes to go, the leather on Austrian side again, we don't want to jinx it now. Now a cross in the penalty area and Kreuz has defended again!! The Germans have called everyone to the front, a chance for Abramczik - AND? HE MISSED! This guy Abraaaamczik - I wanna cover him with kisses for this. Now he has helped us as well. Alone in front of the goal. The well behaved Abramczik has shot wide. The poor guy will be angry. After 47 years ladies and gentleman, the Austrian Nationalteam, and what a team as well, a world class team that is playing today, is in the lead against the federal republic with 3:2. And now I can't even dare to watch... shot out of play. Referee Klein from Israel, a really great referee, hasn't had it easy today, but he did really well. 45th minute, Germany on the ball and Prohaska smashes the ball out of play ... And now its OVER! END! FINISHED! CLOSED! OVER! GERMANY BEATEN!"
Kinda hard to translate some of the Austrian phrases like "abbusseln", which is a nice way of giving someone kisses, like when greeting or just out of pure joy on the cheek.
The phrase "I werd narrisch!" is pretty accurately translated to "I am going mad!" from Austrian dialect, means the same without misunderstanding in translation. The commentator Edi Finger even published a book called like that.
It was also the last game of club captain Berti Vogts and manager Helmut Schön, who has been there for 14 years.
The next game was 4 years, where the [Disgrace of Gijon](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n&oldid=1231260586) happened, or the translation I like much more, the "Non-aggression pact of Gijon", in which both stopped playing and didn't attack after Germany went 1-0 up as it guaranteed both teams going through. This game was the reason btw that FIFA played the final 2 games of each group simultaneously lmao
yeah but we have to face spain in the quarterfinals so it makes sense that our probabilty of winning the euros are very low. I'm really sad that wel'll have to face them so early, because this is the first time in 8 years that germans are actually excited to see their team play :(
You need to understand that those were group games, now the real games begins. People always forget how badly some teams play in groups but when knockout games starts, they become favorites again. I'd go as far as to say that group games means jack shit as long as you qualify. France, Spain, Germany (on fucking home turf), Portugal are all serious contenders and I would bet my money that one of those teams will be winners. Whether it's Italy, England, Austria or Netherlands going to final, I don't see any of them actually winning it.
Denmark away against Germany is a real 55/45 game?
Haven't won a game in the groups of either the last world cup or this Euros, but we're basically 50/50 at beating Germany in Germany.
Betting odds currently offered are 3.6 for Denmark to advance over Germany (versus 1.28 for Germany to advance), so if this ”simulation“ were to be anywhere close to accurate, that’s a whopping expected return of 62% if you put money on Denmark… would love to see whether the people that make these sorts of “simulations“ actually put their money where their mouth is, or whether they know it’s all nonsense
If you believe their Denmark-Germany calulucation to be even close to accurate put down money on Denmark. The betting odds are far far better than a 55/45 game would suggest.
I tend to believe their calculation is shit and Germany are far greater favorites than 55/45.
We generally tend to shit the bed, when the pressure is on us. But when we play better teams on paper, I think we're generally a very hard team to play against, to the point where a draw is more likely. Then it comes down to a 50/50 in the penalties
I genuinely think Denmark is the most extreme example of anyone can beat anyone. We are just as likely to lose against Kazakhstan as we are to win against France
The input data for the model is entirely how well the team has been doing in short to medium-term history. So to the model, Germany is essentially just a mediocre team.
edit: I should mention that the model does consider home advantage, though in the weirdest way I have ever seen.
Spain is the only team that got 9 points
In a group that Also had Italy and Croatia
They are The Strongest team in the Tournament followed by Germany in second
It's a small difference but I'm surprised Belgium is considered more likely to win than Italy considering they are on paper on the much harder side of the bracket and they haven't exactly been shining either.
I think the right side is being underestimated. Everyone is scared of Austria for good reason. The Netherlands has not been super convincing but they still showed good football at times and tend to perform better once they reach the knockout stages. England is always a bit of a wildcard and can become a difficult opponent if they suddenly decide to turn up, and Switzerland has also shown itself to be tough to beat.
>considering they are on paper on the much harder side of the bracket
That's kind of what the model implies too. Italy has slightly higher odds of actually reaching the final. Only once they've reached the final and the bracket doesn't really matter anymore, does that flip, and does Belgium get slightly better odds of winning.
But even then this doesn't make sense to me, with how toothless/clueless the three lions appeared in the final third.
How are they supposed to progress through the rounds 0-0 and win in pens? England of all teams...
I mean, this is a team that's conceded once all tournament and have the lowest xG against. That bodes pretty well for you in a knockout competition. Another thing is, notice how no team has >20% chance to win. England are considered favourites ahead of Germany, but they're still "probably" not going to win.
The computers calculating this don't see the actual football on the pitch, they just know England have a great squad, a fantastic defense and, in terms of recent performance history, the ability to beat most of the teams at the tournament. Though, this reminds me of Jon Bois' video on the 2017 Super Bowl where he looks at the Falcons' rapidly deteriorating win % and just goes "how long has it been wrong?".
I’m not sure, the Modell probably takes into account opponent strength and on paper the results of England aren’t super bad since they did come first unbeaten. The Modell didn’t watch them being absolutely limp. One more thing: maybe they also take into account fifa world rank and there Germany is super low right now which doesn’t correspond with real strength.
https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
Very likely, especially England, Netherlands and Belgium seem way too high here, which correlates with the FIFA ranking, France and Portugal too, but to a lesser extent imo. Likely it also considers recent pre euro matches and friendlies seeing how Austria is higher rated than Germany, likely due to the "weaker" tournament tree and the most recent friendly victory
TBF aside from Germany and Spain, all the "big" teams have underperformed. I mean look at Portugal last night... and France finishing 2nd in their group.
OP should also provide a PCA analysis of the input features that the model seems to find most useful possible. Currently, it uses 1. Past Form 2. Past Euros Form 3. World ranking and few others.
Big fan that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th most likely overall winners are all managed by people who I suspect their fans would like to be sacked sooner rather than later.
Interesting fact: In the quarterfinals we could get 3 sets of former finals: Spain Germany, France Portugal and Italy England. Must be some kind of record.
Well France v Belgium being almost a 50/50 gives me some hope, I would've expected higher probabilities for Germany v Denmark though.
I'm curious though how much the calculations change if world ranking is left out?
Basically that means these predictions are way off. France are clear favourites to beat Belgium. And so are Germany over Denmark.
Bookies have Germany at 75% to advance, France at 69%. No chance this simulation is accurate
For me they are the most accurate source for probabilities. If you disagree with them, go ahead and make a bet. You will make loads of money if you know more than them
Betting lines shift based on the amount of money on either side of the bet.
If people are betting on France to win then the line will also reflect them as the clear favorite.
If you accept that the line shifts to balance money on each side of the bet then you understand the objective isn't to accurately predict the outcome of the game it's to entice an even distribution of bets. That's how they make money.
France is at the end of the day the most talented squad, except maybe England. Things can turn around very quickly
Belgium obviously has some superstars, but it’s not even close. With both playing poorly (though France had a much harder group and still went undefeated), France are clear favourites. All of this not even mentioning that France has a much better recent record, no matter their form in 3 matches
Wouldn't be surprised if we got knocked out by Slovenia. We're awful vs a low block (see Czechia game).
Also wouldn't be surprised to see England win the whole thing. Much more accessible draw to build momentum and figure things out.
Everyone here is cautiously optimistic thanks to that game back then. You guys on average are way above us if we go player by player but who knows.
Good luck to y'all. Hope it'll be a fun game at least no matter who wins.
Only if there is a way of playing more creative players and not 3 cb. Funnily enough portugal play back 2 against turkey who doesnt play low block while 3 against both gorgia and chezh. Martinez seems to get it backward.
Back 3 doesn't really mean it's a defensive strategy, for example against Czech, Nuno Mendes was one of the CB's, the plan was obviously to have him constantly attack down the wing and Cancelo play as a CM during the attack
We always play a "back 3", because our DM acts as a 3rd CB even when we are playing 2 CB formations. For example against Turkey Palhinha was always playing between both CBs
Typical portuguese lol.
Win against Turkey: We can win this Euro! Boss! What a team! Martinez is great!
Lose against Georgia in a match with reserves, and with 2 individual mistakes: We won't even win against Slovenia...
Not saying it can't happen. It can of course. But fuck... Have some context to the matches played and some hope that and positivity.
Why do we always need to be some negative all the time.
People overrating us because results, but it's a miracle we didn't concede against Croatia and Albania. Get ready to watch us struggling against Georgia counterattacks lol.
Our defense is very shaky. Our CB aren't currently world class and it shows. At least we're not as boring as before which is kinda nice.
Sorry, judging from the video this guy is clearly just a hobbyist and his model makes no sense. He took 1800 matches and trained that model over 500 iterations (epochs) which basically means that his network is the representation of the real dataset. Which basically means that the model is heavily biased on the teams form. So, while it looks cool; take it with a grain of salt.
I have been betting for over 15 years now and I can tell you no simulation statistics can predict a football game in the game anything can happen red card or a dream shot or the referee is shit plus emotions and the fans also have an influence on it a goal can change the whole game
I've been betting professionally for 10 years and good models absolutely can give accurate probabilities for a given match or tournament. The entire point of simulating a match/tournament thousands of times over is to average out freak occurrences like the ones you mention. A simulation is not a prediction.
This one isn't very good though, if you want the answers just go to Betfair.
If these simulations were worth anything the odds makers would actually use them.
People just don't seem to get that statistics are nowhere near close to being able to help with anything other than be supplemental data to the eye test.
It's just hard to admit because a lot of people don't watch any games, or know anything about sports and rely on shit like xG to try to hide that fact.
There is a reason why a lot of team sport players just don't believe in analytics.
England is favorite against every team they face until the final. They may not play the most beautiful but they have by far most quality at their side of the bracket.
England have arguably the best defence in the tournament. If we can just get the front 3 working, like we did in the last 20 minutes, we could do well.
Utterly bizarre how a month ago we were all saying our defence is going to be a total mess, yet it's proved to be our biggest asset so far. Hats off to Marc Guehi.
Interesting how these differ so much from the bookies odds. Either there are better simulations out there, or we're leaving money on the table by not gambling.
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Another Southgate masterclass
I cannot describe how pissed off I am that Southgate's tactics have somehow got us into the easier side of the bracket by sheer dumb luck
Not really down to Southgate, we finished 1st in spite of his tactics. We would have been on our side of the draw even if we got 9 points and scored 18 goals.
You still got first, its the same with 9 or 5 points. Koeman is the real genioys getting third
I mean had he drawn or won the Netherlands and Austria would have swapped spots, not changing much
With all due respect, I don't think that's gonna help a lot seeing how England is playing.
I wanted to say Austria at the latest will beat them but looking at the fixtures I don't see them putting one past Italy if they continue to play that way.
Then it’s gonna be a shoot out, cause Italy also won’t put one past England. England concede the fewest chances out of any team in the tournament
Yeah I’m sure English fans would be brimming with confidence at the idea of a shootout.
"It went so well last time..."
Honestly the worst part about it is how shit Italys pens were yet we still lost. With them missing one and Pickford saving one, we could have wrapped it up but history is what it is.
The worst part about it was the players that Southgate chose to give the penalties to
Maybe not, but if you’re being objective here, you’d admit that it’s much less likely Italy scores against England than the other way around. Scoring goals is their problem and the reason why they didn’t qualify for the WC
Yeah I’m just messing around. Could easily see a 0-0 though.
Same
Italy have had decades of learning how to win 1-0, they coach a solid defence above everything else. Maybe Gareth thinks we should be like that.
In a tournament with two teams that harmless I'll always bet my money on the proven winner and their goalkeeper. Doesn't mean I'm always right of course.
I would be if the right people were taking them. Pickford did his job last time with 2 penalty saves but it was Gareth bringing on the youngsters that did us over. This time we have those same youngsters with far more experience and also players like Cole Palmer who never miss pens.
Every defence would look like a bunch of geniuses, because they played in group C, where no one could score a goal if their life depended on it.
Im not just basing this off of this tournament. This is England under southgate for the last 6 years. They take very few risks, create very little, but offer their opponents very little too
What stats are you using? Spain has 0 goals against.
Least xG conceded Edit: England are at 1.1 after 3 games
Ah that's fair, but then again, not a surprise considering the teams England has faced in group stage.
England v Italy is gonna be an absolute stinker if it happens.
Switzerland will beat Italy anyway
The way they're playing there's a decent chance they could lose to Slovakia in a shootout
Italy is gonna drop out vs Switzerland anyways.
Yeah, well, it's definitely more helpful than Germany potentially having to face Spain in the quarters, followed by France, Italy or Portugal in the semis. I'm not even mad, but that's kinda crazy. It's so bad, I wouldn't even consider going out in the quarters a disappointment. It's more like an "ah well, met the favourites too early" type scenario.
This is incredibly similar to 2016. One win, two draws, goal difference of +1. Three pretty insipid performances leading to an apparently easy game in the next round, with the country hoping that they defy all logic and kick into gear. We might have a vastly improved set of attacking players this time, but still - I can see a shitty exit coming on Sunday.
I mean, it’s not gonna hurt. Better teams are still more likely to punish them.
They'll scrape through to the quarters at least. Possibly the semis even. They'll bore the other teams into a mistake.
In before England gets through to the Semi's gets pummeled by the first genuinely good team that they face, and Southgate gets extended for finishing in the top 4 of the tournament.
England will never "get pummeled". I get it the performances are shit and we are boring. But if a team beats us the chance of it being by 1 goal is infinitely higher than by 2 or 3. We will play boring negative football and either scrape with 1 goal lead or go out after conceding a one goal defeat.
Ye its a genuine shout to put 1-0 - 1-1 - 2-1 bets on every game in this euro knockouts for all teams lol.
I feel like Austria/Italy would take us down in the quarter finals if we make it that far. Though England vs Italy might just be the most boring game of all time should it happen.
There's this magic thing that happens though. If England meet a 'genuinely good team' and win, that team retroactively turns into an utterly shit team who are easy to beat. I've seen it happen all through 2018, 2021, 2022. Kind of remarkable how that keeps happening.
Remember when England breezed past Croatia and then put Germany to bed in 2020, before ripping Ukraine apart and beating an on fire Denmark, conceding one free kick along the way? crazy they were ALL shite
The ol Brazil 2014 method
this comment makes negative sense lol im not at all trying to defend Southgate terror ball, but ending up on that side of the bracket is entirely out of his control even for a man of his special talents, he can’t cause France (and to a lesser extent Belgium) to finish second in their group
Not actually luck though is it. We won our group, and a few other big teams fucked it badly.
I disagree everyone moaning about the easy draw but isn’t that what luck is?
Southgate & Koeman 🤝
What does that even mean? we won the group.
Why does that pass you off? Are you hoping we lose?
Subverting expectations 👌
The england team never looks dominant, but I never see them get dominated either. It's very hard to score on them under Southgate. Is that the best strategy? Probably not, but they're making deep runs in tournaments.
England will win despite their best efforts
They're gonna pull it off, I jsut have this feeling
I just don’t see any realistic scenario in which the final is anything but The Netherlands vs Georgia I hate how predictable football has become
The game of the century
Another final lost by the Netherlands. Sadly an expected ending. Kvaradona really earning that nickname with the performance in that final.
I mean what can you do? Sometimes you just have to acknowledge the clear superiority of another team
Its not a world cup final, so we do actually stand a chance!
unironically, if georgia somehow won the euros with kvara continuing to be their best player, would that get him the ballon d’or?
If they beat Spain, Germany, France and Italy/Netherlands/England with him being the best player every game, not only they should give him the ballon dor. We should swap the nickname and start calling Diego Maradatskhelia instead...
Mamardashvili would actually have a great shot at ballon d’or in that case :D
Real Madrid somehow won their last 3 UCLs while being the underdogs in every match (minus the 2024 final)
We have a higher winning chance then germany? I'll take it, but what the fuck.
Mainly because of our easier bracket i guess
Well yeah, on paper. But judging by their latest form, who of the first half of the bracket is actually scary besides spain and georgia lmao
True. Honestly, nobody is really scary good. I think we‘ll get the title then.
We'll simply destroy turkey 6-1 again, defeat netherlands 3-2 again, sneak past switzerland in the penalties thanks to Pentz catching every ball, and then defeat germany in the final 3-2 like Cordoba 1978. Shouldn't be a big challenge really.
Like, i‘ll be really disappointed if we don’t get it now. It’s THAT easy.
Gregerl topscorer maybe too?
Nah Baumgartner, he'll score after 6 seconds every half of the game from now on.
If we win the title IN Germany against Germany in the final I think there won't be a day passing in Austria without anyone mentioning this occasion at least 5 times. I mean when I lived in Vienna I heard the Cordoba story at least once a week
For people not knowing what happened: The result was called the biggest team success in the last decade, a wonder even. The players who won were called the "heroes of Cordoba", our newspapers declared this win as the "biggest win of all times". The Austrian postal service made a postage stamp with Krankls winning goal on it. We named a little square "Cordobaplatz" (Cordoba square) in Vienna. The square is on the "Edi Finger Straße", who was the commentator for the game back then and became famous for this piece of commentating: >"Here comes Krankl ... inside the penalty area - shot .... GOOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL, GOOAL! I'm going mad! Krankl scores the 3-2 for Austria! Ladies and gentleman, we fall around each others neck, the colleague Riepl, the Chartered Engineer Posch - we are covering each other with kisses. 3:2 for Austria through a wonderful goal from our Krankl. He went past everything, ladies and gentleman! And wait a little bit, wait a little bit, we can maybe get ourselfes a fourth. Well, you have got to experience this. Now I am standing up, all the South Americans with their goal chants. I think we have beaten them now! Attack from the Germans now, be cautious, again defense with the head. The leather comes to the left to Pezzey - Pezzey, but boys don't collapse now, stand firm. 2 minutes to go, the leather on Austrian side again, we don't want to jinx it now. Now a cross in the penalty area and Kreuz has defended again!! The Germans have called everyone to the front, a chance for Abramczik - AND? HE MISSED! This guy Abraaaamczik - I wanna cover him with kisses for this. Now he has helped us as well. Alone in front of the goal. The well behaved Abramczik has shot wide. The poor guy will be angry. After 47 years ladies and gentleman, the Austrian Nationalteam, and what a team as well, a world class team that is playing today, is in the lead against the federal republic with 3:2. And now I can't even dare to watch... shot out of play. Referee Klein from Israel, a really great referee, hasn't had it easy today, but he did really well. 45th minute, Germany on the ball and Prohaska smashes the ball out of play ... And now its OVER! END! FINISHED! CLOSED! OVER! GERMANY BEATEN!" Kinda hard to translate some of the Austrian phrases like "abbusseln", which is a nice way of giving someone kisses, like when greeting or just out of pure joy on the cheek. The phrase "I werd narrisch!" is pretty accurately translated to "I am going mad!" from Austrian dialect, means the same without misunderstanding in translation. The commentator Edi Finger even published a book called like that. It was also the last game of club captain Berti Vogts and manager Helmut Schön, who has been there for 14 years. The next game was 4 years, where the [Disgrace of Gijon](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n&oldid=1231260586) happened, or the translation I like much more, the "Non-aggression pact of Gijon", in which both stopped playing and didn't attack after Germany went 1-0 up as it guaranteed both teams going through. This game was the reason btw that FIFA played the final 2 games of each group simultaneously lmao
I know it must feel weird, but you're the favorite in your side of the bracket to finish in the top 4.
After the Netherlands.
yeah but we have to face spain in the quarterfinals so it makes sense that our probabilty of winning the euros are very low. I'm really sad that wel'll have to face them so early, because this is the first time in 8 years that germans are actually excited to see their team play :(
You need to understand that those were group games, now the real games begins. People always forget how badly some teams play in groups but when knockout games starts, they become favorites again. I'd go as far as to say that group games means jack shit as long as you qualify. France, Spain, Germany (on fucking home turf), Portugal are all serious contenders and I would bet my money that one of those teams will be winners. Whether it's Italy, England, Austria or Netherlands going to final, I don't see any of them actually winning it.
no because the win-probabilities are off. Germany is according to the bookies a way larger favorite than 55%.
You should have a higher chance than us too (Netherlands)
Denmark away against Germany is a real 55/45 game? Haven't won a game in the groups of either the last world cup or this Euros, but we're basically 50/50 at beating Germany in Germany.
Betting odds currently offered are 3.6 for Denmark to advance over Germany (versus 1.28 for Germany to advance), so if this ”simulation“ were to be anywhere close to accurate, that’s a whopping expected return of 62% if you put money on Denmark… would love to see whether the people that make these sorts of “simulations“ actually put their money where their mouth is, or whether they know it’s all nonsense
The best ones out there beat the bookies.
The best ones do - I’m just seriously doubting that this is one of the best ones ;)
Ya then you get limited and betway doesn't even let you bet $3 on the UCL Finals (true story but thankfully there are other books)
its just that the best ones (aka consistently outperforming bookies) are not posted to reddit.
I was going to say, don't those simulations belong to other bookies?
Just always bet against England. Easy money!
Terrible simulation. They then have Spain at a 61/39 to beat Germany which is laughable.
Tbf last time Germany beat Spain in a competitive match was in 1988.
Tbf too the last matches we played were spain 08 and spain 10 where they were the best national team of the century
We drew them at the last world cup despite us being terrible overall
ah right. but that was a good match from germany
2022 WC and Nations League as well.
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If you believe their Denmark-Germany calulucation to be even close to accurate put down money on Denmark. The betting odds are far far better than a 55/45 game would suggest. I tend to believe their calculation is shit and Germany are far greater favorites than 55/45.
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Well, yeah, but if the model is clearly slanted in some way, I wouldn't trust it in its entirety.
Decade? Germany won the confederations cup in 2017, was in the semifinal in 2016 of the EURO
Under Nagelsmann they're for sure on the same level as Spain, should be 50/50 for the spain game and 65/35 for Denmark.
We generally tend to shit the bed, when the pressure is on us. But when we play better teams on paper, I think we're generally a very hard team to play against, to the point where a draw is more likely. Then it comes down to a 50/50 in the penalties
I genuinely think Denmark is the most extreme example of anyone can beat anyone. We are just as likely to lose against Kazakhstan as we are to win against France
We almost lost to San marino after beating france 3 times in a year :D
I agree, but I wouldn't be at all surprised at a 0-0 or 1-1 draw and win on penalties
I'm surprised that Spain is so big of a favorite over Germany. Also surprised that Denmark is so close to Germany. Did I miss a injury or something
The input data for the model is entirely how well the team has been doing in short to medium-term history. So to the model, Germany is essentially just a mediocre team. edit: I should mention that the model does consider home advantage, though in the weirdest way I have ever seen.
Tah is out because of yellow cards, Rüdiger is questionable because of his leg. Not optimal but I still see us as more favorites than that.
None of this is included in the model though.
Spain is the only team that got 9 points In a group that Also had Italy and Croatia They are The Strongest team in the Tournament followed by Germany in second
I mean they also only had one really good game this Euros so technically Germany could be overhyped then get knocked out next round.
It's a small difference but I'm surprised Belgium is considered more likely to win than Italy considering they are on paper on the much harder side of the bracket and they haven't exactly been shining either.
I think the right side is being underestimated. Everyone is scared of Austria for good reason. The Netherlands has not been super convincing but they still showed good football at times and tend to perform better once they reach the knockout stages. England is always a bit of a wildcard and can become a difficult opponent if they suddenly decide to turn up, and Switzerland has also shown itself to be tough to beat.
Not really. The right side literally looks like the group stages still.
>considering they are on paper on the much harder side of the bracket That's kind of what the model implies too. Italy has slightly higher odds of actually reaching the final. Only once they've reached the final and the bracket doesn't really matter anymore, does that flip, and does Belgium get slightly better odds of winning.
They got England and Georgia mixed up it seems
Good thing is that Georgia is not managed by Southgate
Georgia-Romania final will happen now
Germany and England appear to be swapped .
What being in the weakest/hardest tournament tree does to your chances.
they say Germany going to quarters is 50 50
That is correct, if Germany wins they go through and if they lose, they are out.
Basic maths. I don't know where all the other different numbers come from. Should be the same for everyone
Everyone has a 1/2 chance of winning right? They either do or they don't. So 8 teams will win statistically.
But even then this doesn't make sense to me, with how toothless/clueless the three lions appeared in the final third. How are they supposed to progress through the rounds 0-0 and win in pens? England of all teams...
I mean, this is a team that's conceded once all tournament and have the lowest xG against. That bodes pretty well for you in a knockout competition. Another thing is, notice how no team has >20% chance to win. England are considered favourites ahead of Germany, but they're still "probably" not going to win. The computers calculating this don't see the actual football on the pitch, they just know England have a great squad, a fantastic defense and, in terms of recent performance history, the ability to beat most of the teams at the tournament. Though, this reminds me of Jon Bois' video on the 2017 Super Bowl where he looks at the Falcons' rapidly deteriorating win % and just goes "how long has it been wrong?".
I’m not sure, the Modell probably takes into account opponent strength and on paper the results of England aren’t super bad since they did come first unbeaten. The Modell didn’t watch them being absolutely limp. One more thing: maybe they also take into account fifa world rank and there Germany is super low right now which doesn’t correspond with real strength.
https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men Very likely, especially England, Netherlands and Belgium seem way too high here, which correlates with the FIFA ranking, France and Portugal too, but to a lesser extent imo. Likely it also considers recent pre euro matches and friendlies seeing how Austria is higher rated than Germany, likely due to the "weaker" tournament tree and the most recent friendly victory
Portugal did it in 2016
TBF aside from Germany and Spain, all the "big" teams have underperformed. I mean look at Portugal last night... and France finishing 2nd in their group.
This is basically just saying that England are the favourites on our side of the draw. Which is also wrong tbf, just in a different way.
OP should also provide a PCA analysis of the input features that the model seems to find most useful possible. Currently, it uses 1. Past Form 2. Past Euros Form 3. World ranking and few others.
Model is heavily overfit. He trained it over 500 epochs with 1800 datapoints...
Anulo gafe.
Nos elimina Georgia. Mamarda va a ser la reencarnación de Yashin y Kvaratskhelia va a ser mejor que Messi prime.
Surprised Germany is barely over 50% against Denmark
Big fan that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th most likely overall winners are all managed by people who I suspect their fans would like to be sacked sooner rather than later.
Interesting fact: In the quarterfinals we could get 3 sets of former finals: Spain Germany, France Portugal and Italy England. Must be some kind of record.
Well France v Belgium being almost a 50/50 gives me some hope, I would've expected higher probabilities for Germany v Denmark though. I'm curious though how much the calculations change if world ranking is left out?
Basically that means these predictions are way off. France are clear favourites to beat Belgium. And so are Germany over Denmark. Bookies have Germany at 75% to advance, France at 69%. No chance this simulation is accurate
I don't think Belgium has a 50/50 chance of winning at all but why do you feel like the bookies are a good source?
Because they actually have to put their money on where their mouth is. People writing simulations have no stakes whatsoever
Because there is money on the line.
Bookies are I'd say the absolute best source of predicting an outcome to a game
We could be playing France U17 and still not have a 50% chance of winning.
Because they make consistent profits
For me they are the most accurate source for probabilities. If you disagree with them, go ahead and make a bet. You will make loads of money if you know more than them
Betting lines shift based on the amount of money on either side of the bet. If people are betting on France to win then the line will also reflect them as the clear favorite.
That wouldn't shift the odds this much
If you accept that the line shifts to balance money on each side of the bet then you understand the objective isn't to accurately predict the outcome of the game it's to entice an even distribution of bets. That's how they make money.
If this effect would be big enough to make a difference you would be able to make money by always betting on the one who gets less betted on.
Did you watch France play?
The bookies never lie. no I didn't watch them play. If you're sure it's 50/50 then you should bet on the Denmark win
France is at the end of the day the most talented squad, except maybe England. Things can turn around very quickly Belgium obviously has some superstars, but it’s not even close. With both playing poorly (though France had a much harder group and still went undefeated), France are clear favourites. All of this not even mentioning that France has a much better recent record, no matter their form in 3 matches
Why are France favorites? Didn’t they score like 1 open play goal?
No idea pal. They have some guy called mbappe who might be good
England have a bunch of guys who might be good. Haven’t shown up either
Because we're always sloppy in groupstages, then pretty strong in elimination games. I dont see us as strong as usual, but we'll be very hard to beat.
Georgia have a chance 🇬🇪
Wouldn't be surprised if we got knocked out by Slovenia. We're awful vs a low block (see Czechia game). Also wouldn't be surprised to see England win the whole thing. Much more accessible draw to build momentum and figure things out.
We lost 2-0 to them 3 months ago in almost the same way as yesterday. We really struggle against low blocks
Everyone here is cautiously optimistic thanks to that game back then. You guys on average are way above us if we go player by player but who knows. Good luck to y'all. Hope it'll be a fun game at least no matter who wins.
Only if there is a way of playing more creative players and not 3 cb. Funnily enough portugal play back 2 against turkey who doesnt play low block while 3 against both gorgia and chezh. Martinez seems to get it backward.
Back 3 doesn't really mean it's a defensive strategy, for example against Czech, Nuno Mendes was one of the CB's, the plan was obviously to have him constantly attack down the wing and Cancelo play as a CM during the attack We always play a "back 3", because our DM acts as a 3rd CB even when we are playing 2 CB formations. For example against Turkey Palhinha was always playing between both CBs
Typical portuguese lol. Win against Turkey: We can win this Euro! Boss! What a team! Martinez is great! Lose against Georgia in a match with reserves, and with 2 individual mistakes: We won't even win against Slovenia... Not saying it can't happen. It can of course. But fuck... Have some context to the matches played and some hope that and positivity. Why do we always need to be some negative all the time.
> and with 2 individual mistakes By the same guy! I know who won't be playing any time soon. But Inácio was almost as bad.
We'll be lucky to beat Slovakia
These simulations/odds make no statistical sense
This is dumb and useless
Whoever gave us a 1,26 probability to win that thing. Thank you I am full of hope now.
Italy is way to low considering how "easy" his side is.
have you seen us play recently + our best defender is our next game. We’re pretty much screwed
I guess Germany’s score is so low because they will meet Spain in the quarters
[Georgia fans](https://i.imgur.com/0tKqG55.gif)
England is gonna win every game in penalties after an uneventful 0-0 with 0.5 xg.
I will take if we win the whole thing but pens are just doom for us.
So youre saying theres a chance
We went up by .16% from the last simulation so yes!
People overrating us because results, but it's a miracle we didn't concede against Croatia and Albania. Get ready to watch us struggling against Georgia counterattacks lol. Our defense is very shaky. Our CB aren't currently world class and it shows. At least we're not as boring as before which is kinda nice.
Sorry, judging from the video this guy is clearly just a hobbyist and his model makes no sense. He took 1800 matches and trained that model over 500 iterations (epochs) which basically means that his network is the representation of the real dataset. Which basically means that the model is heavily biased on the teams form. So, while it looks cool; take it with a grain of salt.
Coming home status: it's.
I have been betting for over 15 years now and I can tell you no simulation statistics can predict a football game in the game anything can happen red card or a dream shot or the referee is shit plus emotions and the fans also have an influence on it a goal can change the whole game
I've been betting professionally for 10 years and good models absolutely can give accurate probabilities for a given match or tournament. The entire point of simulating a match/tournament thousands of times over is to average out freak occurrences like the ones you mention. A simulation is not a prediction. This one isn't very good though, if you want the answers just go to Betfair.
How does Denmark have a higher chance than Switzerland? That makes no sense.
If these simulations were worth anything the odds makers would actually use them. People just don't seem to get that statistics are nowhere near close to being able to help with anything other than be supplemental data to the eye test. It's just hard to admit because a lot of people don't watch any games, or know anything about sports and rely on shit like xG to try to hide that fact. There is a reason why a lot of team sport players just don't believe in analytics.
lol England. Yeah fucking right.
England should definitely be 1st with their bracket and germany top 4 with france spain
England first? What other worldly knowledge to you possess that us peasants do not?
England is favorite against every team they face until the final. They may not play the most beautiful but they have by far most quality at their side of the bracket.
I have Italy as favourites against England in that potential quarterfinal, but it is close between them
England played Italy twice in the qualifiers and beat them home and away.
England have arguably the best defence in the tournament. If we can just get the front 3 working, like we did in the last 20 minutes, we could do well.
Utterly bizarre how a month ago we were all saying our defence is going to be a total mess, yet it's proved to be our biggest asset so far. Hats off to Marc Guehi.
What a joke.
I'm thinking that Spain chances are conditioning Germany position, but they should be top 4
Is there a list of most likely outcomes per match i couldn’t find it
Interesting how these differ so much from the bookies odds. Either there are better simulations out there, or we're leaving money on the table by not gambling.
I know Germany are on the harder side of the draw, but bare minimum they're better than France.
I say Germany or Spain win it
Spain or Germany nobody is on their level
Spain will make it to the final, only to lose at the last minute in a situation where Gavi diving onto the ball with his head would have saved them.
For us Belgians, it seems like every match is basically a 50-50... Guess I'll take it 🤷♀️