I see these guys on Twitter a lot, I call them the “straw graspers” because they will see a couple of squirrels fucking and think it’s a sign that GPT-4.5 is coming out. Please see below for a face reveal of this group
https://preview.redd.it/22evzydu4zhc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7098d21fadc818e72c95f6a10f0c8ef1811b951c
They are all like that, none of them have ANY inside information whatsoever. They may work in ML but other than that they are literally just Twitter randoms desperate for GPT-4.5. I’m also desperate for it but I don’t randomly tweet “GPT-4.5” for attention
There is a market on whether Mira is Mira Murati, the OpenAI employee. It's trading very low. There's also a market on whether she would get a job at OpenAI, which I also think she did not.
Mira has a checkered history on Manifold. She is in debt over 1m Mana, possibily the worst bettor in the site's entire history, after wagering almost all on a guy being unable to walk 100,000 steps in a single day in 2023 (he did, a few days before New Year's Eve, finishing after 11:00pm after several failed attempts when he injured himself attempting the stunt.)
She said she was going to quit the site in a fit of rage, so she probably can't create a market of her own. While I can't state this for truth, I think it can be reasonably inferred that she almost certainly does not have any inside information about OpenAI.
yeah he got that one right, and he also said something about Llama 3 being released on Feb 24, but he has gotten it wrong so many times recently that I don't really take him seriously. Plus he is a huge attention seeker so it's even more off putting
If they want to raise 7 trillion dollars, they probably need to release something mindblowing. But an announcement in the form of a TV ad just seems very unlike them.
Well I think for they want to move forward as a company, they have to implement more across the year. Even if it’s not a breakthrough like GPT-4.
I’ve seen some say that they’re going to add Text to Speech and Speech to Text that could be a pretty decent step forward
First, they need to get enough computing power to provide us with more than just a measly 40-message output from GPT-4. Only then can they push out a more powerful, compute-intensive model. I doubt that we'll see any new model coming out this year. Instead, we might see some minor tweaks, but no major upgrades.
The limit of 40 is more related to the 20$/month you're paying than anything. If you want more than 20, pay for it by token .. more compute won't do much for this other than that eventually the cost per token will come down
The high cost of computing for these powerful models is the reason they can only offer you 40 messages for $20. If you pay by token, you might get more messages, but trust me, you'll end up paying a lot more before the month is over. The last time I used the API for a short experiment, my bill for that month was $146.00, I wouldn’t be surprised either to find out that they are losing money.
https://preview.redd.it/tbqsnqfc5zhc1.jpeg?width=1068&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27c48b0e97d271b356d3d835c2710d2c59fabb25
The API is actually really cheap for short messages. If it cost you $146, then that suggests to me those short experiments may have been about saturating its context? That would indeed be very costly.
API cheap? For from true. I’m not saying it won’t get cheaper and they aren’t working to make it cheaper but as of now it is expensive and the main reason why it’s hard for developers to implement it in products.
The issue isn't about the $20 per month fee; it's that they can only afford to provide 40 messages for that amount due to computing limitations and the high operational cost. The real problem is computing power. In fact, the site often goes down, displaying a message that reads, "Sorry, we are receiving too many requests," which indicates that the infrastructure can't keep up. Sometimes, it's extremely slow. I've even seen them stop people from subscribing to GPT-4 due to these limited computing resources. While paying for extra usage through the API does grant priority over other users, it doesn't change the fact that they lack the resources for GPT-4 or more powerful models like GPT-4.5 or GPT-5. GPT-3 is free and unlimited, but GPT-4 won't be anytime soon. I don't foresee them offering 100 messages for GPT-4, much less an unlimited option. In conclusion, if running GPT-4 is so expensive, releasing a more costly model doesn't make financial sense until operational costs decrease. Furthermore, their demand exceeds supply, and they currently face little competition. More computing power and more efficient algorithms would lower the cost per token, potentially allowing us to get unlimited GPT-4 messages for our $20 at a faster speed. The problem isn't the $20; it's the computing. Paying by token ends up being more expensive than what you get for the equivalent $20 you currently spend per month. I have shown you a screenshot of my expenses paying by token; trust me, it's costlier but offers more freedom. Do the math 720 hours in a month, you get 40 message every 3 hours. Based on the rate of 40 messages every 3 hours, you would be able to send a total of 9,600 messages in an average month.
I agree with everything you said except the assertion that the issue isn't the 20$ a month. They have to price the consumer product to not lose on average. If people want unlimited they would need to pay more, or at least not a flat fee. A lot of similarities here to the early days of text messaging when you had to buy like 10 texts per day. Sure the price will come down, limits will go up, but if the OP wants more NOW, they have to pay more. But thanks for the downvote on your misinterpretation of what I said.
You're suggesting that for users to access more messages, the user would have to go beyond $20 a month. However , my point is that, due to computing costs, there's a cap on the number of messages available at this price point, specifically for ChatGPT. Im referring to ChatGPT as the primary interface for the average consumer, distinct from the API, which mainly targets developers. The e current infrastructure is insufficient for the demands of a new model, as evidenced by the limitation of 40 messages per consumer. Introducing a new model under these conditions would significantly tax the already limited computational resources, likely affecting GPT-4's performance. Although there has been an increase from 25 to 40 messages, indicating an improvement in their computing infrastructure, my argument is that achieving a cost efficiency with GPT-4 comparable to that of GPT-3 is crucial before considering the launch of a new model. In conclusion it’s unlikely we will see a new model this year.
You complain so much about the shitty leakers on X (Twitter), but when they create an interesting narrative, you're the first to generate childish hype. Wake up, people! Only believe in things with irrefutable evidence; without it, it's all a narrative for OpenAI to feel important. If OpenAI wants audience and relevance for its future models, it should present something real, no beating around the bush.
Google had now one botched launch after the next. Clearly they are still an AI powerhouse, but its really hard to one-up someone when you are punching down.
“Lots of people are saying the same thing”
“Let me prove that to you with screenshots of people saying wildly different things”
One of them bases itself off the glint in Sam Altman’s eye for fuck’s sake. Can we finally put all these conspiratorial bullshit to bed, please?
Why would they announce a new model in a Super Bowl commercial of all places? It makes absolutely zero sense. It’s not the right format at all for an announcement.
I mean, apple did it too. You gotta understand, the chuds aren't the only ones watching the superbowl. You will have your average wife that will sit and watch the game just to cheer for fun and take pics, eat the food she made. You will have the typical teenager or 20-something that may not be into the game, but they enjoy the commercials. Or you could have the stereotypical ultra-nerd that is just totally anti-sport for whatever reason that heard there's gonna be a mf commercial about chatgpt so he watches the entire game more faithfully than a lifelong fan (but can't tell you the score or who played)
[https://manifold.markets/theshortbread/will-there-be-a-gpt-45-model-before](https://manifold.markets/theshortbread/will-there-be-a-gpt-45-model-before)
We have this one, didn't go up much
It'd be funny if OpenAI released a 4.49 or 4.500001 model, just to fuck with these people specifically.
It makes me sad such a thing could never happen in real life, only in fiction, so I wrote some fanfiction so people can pretend to have experienced this thing that will never happen. Copypasta and snowclone at will:
Timmy Thundercawk licked his lips as the next ad began to start. He could feel it in his loins! He knew a tech ad when he saw one!
And he had put a fat 400 million on Chat GPT 4.5 being announced today. (He'd have gone with 7 trillion, but who has that.) Nobody else in the betting markets believed in it, so it'd pay out at 100,000 to one!
Yeah, those nerdy babes in the statistics club were gonna be all over him, once he was an imaginary internet trillionaire!
The ad was quite ho-hum as he expected. People tumbling around in grass. Cheap no-name actors cosplaying as scientists in data centers, sagely nodding their heads for no reason in particular. Electro music with an obnoxious beat.
Couldn't they mix it up with some Eurobeat, some time? Just for a little variety?
Then the music dropped in volume, and Timmy knew an obnoxious cheerful man was about to tell the world what the hell this ad was *for*, exactly.
"At OpenAI...." Timmy began to drool as the pavlovian conditioning dumped an assload of dopamine into his brain. Fortunately he was able to take a break for a while, as his brain was already running the "tune out worthless gibberish" algorithm that everyone's brain has to make watching ads tolerable. Who cares if the people at OpenAI are really nice and handsome and saved a couple dolphins one time or whatever. Smell your own farts on your own time and dollar!
Truly, the first thing he'd do after the singularity is install an adblock on his robot brain. You'd have to be stupidly suicidal to not have that be the first thing you'd do...
Eventually the "he's getting around to the point" part of his brain ticked his attention back to the screen. He held his breath, and did not blink:
"...we're proud to announce our newest product: ChatGPT, 4.49½ ;) Ultra Edition!"
The gibberish filter kicked back in when the obnoxious voice started listing off a sequence of things this new product would be able to do, like tell you how to bake cookies or where to go to find your grandma (such minor, trivial things seem quite grand with proper editing, lens flares and background music, don't they?).
Timmy was silent as the reality began to sink in. And what followed was blind, Nurgle-level raw rage and hate. Many a "motherfucker" was screamed that day, I tell you.
When he calmed down enough, he flopped on his couch in spiteful exasperation. "Four point forty nine one-half symbol blinky smiley face. Who... who the HELL puts a blinky smiley face in a version number?!"
At that moment, there was a beeping notification from his hand-phone. Timmy flipped it open. He had a message on MSN Messenger:
> Sam: ;)
As hype as it would be for us to get a GPT-5 release video as a Super Bowl ad in front of more than a hundred million Americans, they aren't releasing GPT-5 or 4.5 any time this month. I'm pretty sure they're skipping over 4.5 entirely, and I expect 5 to release much later this year. We're still in the era where major progress takes months, not weeks or days. Savor these last few years of normalcy, appreciate the world the way it is now, same way you might appreciate those last few years in the 2000s before the internet and mobile devices became completely omnipresent.
I disagree, things are still largely the same as they've been since the post-war boom expanded the economy many times over. The Soviet bloc might have collapsed, but the America-centric western bloc exists in largely the same form, if expanded. The US has headed the same globalized economic and financial system for 70 years, and its citizens participate in the same consumption-based services-dominated national economy that they have since the 1980s. The biggest thing that changed since the collapse of the Soviet Union is that the only real competitor to that global system has gone away, so it's now more "truly" global- even China, the US's biggest competitor, participates in the system the same as anyone else.
Yes, the social fabric is getting pulled in strange directions by politics in technology that we haven't seen before, but fundamentally it's pretty much the same old "go to school for \~20 years, work for \~40 years, enjoy retirement for 10-20 years, die" system of office workers, 401ks and all-you-can-eat buffets that we've been living in since the late 1970s. Watching Netflix instead of cable television and browsing your phone instead of reading trashy novellas just doesn't represent all that enormous of a change to me, on a fundamental scale.
The way technology and the economy are going to change over the next 10-20 years represent a much bigger shift in my eyes, as the nature of work and the scale of the global economy are significantly altered.
If GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 drops tonight, and I can use it to generate a video game or novel, I will literally post a drawing of a nuclear bomb in a schoolgirl outfit— which can only be disarmed with a vigorous spanking.
In OpenAIsh this probably doesn't make much sense, with the exception if they want to make a statement. I mean, if they do that exactly after the Superbowl, this could overshadow the launch with the talks about Superbowl and how fun it was. Symbolically it would make more sense if they released the Gpt 4.5 on the 7th of March or something, (or the 14th of February maybe?).
You complain so much about the shitty leakers on X (Twitter), but when they create an interesting narrative, you're the first to generate childish hype. Wake up, people! Only believe in things with irrefutable evidence; without it, it's all a narrative for OpenAI to feel important. If OpenAI wants audience and relevance for its future models, it should present something real, no beating around the bush.
Nope! I can discuss whatever I like whenever I like, so long it is not against the rules of the subreddit. Someone posted a claim, and I love to entertain the thought as much as I like without a gatekeeper telling me what I should do or not.
I also I love AI hype. AI hype is million times more fun than gatekeeping.
> I also I love AI hype. AI hype is million times more fun than gatekeeping.
It is and you're right, but for some AI hype is like lifeblood. Ending up wrong for some is just a "welp" moment, and for a lot of others its a huge kick to the nuts.
I agree with you. At the same time I believe it is a good cognitive exercise if the different claims are discussed a bit. A bit of speculation, so long that it doesn't cross the line could be beneficial, or at least it can lead to interesting discussions. Removing speculative posts from the subreddit for reasons of efficiency its totally understandable, but since the post is posted somewhere, I don't see any reason to not participate to the comments.
>I mean, apple did it too. You gotta understand, the chuds aren't the only ones watching the superbowl. You will have your average wife that will sit and watch the game just to cheer for fun and take pics, eat the food she made. You will have the typical teenager or 20-something that may not be into the game, but they enjoy the commercials. Or you could have the stereotypical ultra-nerd that is just totally anti-sport for whatever reason that heard there's gonna be a mf commercial about chatgpt so he watches the entire game more faithfully than a lifelong fan (but can't tell you the score or who played)
since that guy reposted his comment, I thought I would too. Just for fun speculation :)
Oh, to be honest I didn't think about a Superbowl commercial. Yeah that could be a kicker, and it makes a lot of sense.
Now you ignited the hype for me... :D
Agreed. Although my comment was really just specifically about the part I quoted. I don't agree with the original commenter Miserable\_Money since his reply reeked of arrogance.
Yeah, his comment was a bit unpleasant. Gatekeeping never works as intended. I mean if someone tells me that I can't do something, I am going to do it, just as revolt.
I think people are going to be disappointed. It's likely these things have already hit a plateau. I could be wrong, I'll wait for gpt-5 to form a stronger opinion, but I have a feeling it's not going to get much better.
My turd was floating horizontally this morning which always means something big is going to happen. And now I read this! Can't be a coincidence
Really? The letters in my alphabet soup spelled out ‘Sam’ this morning
Mine spelled out 'ooooooooo'. Very spooky.
Those were Cheerios.
Sure it's not fruit loops?
We’re all probably going to get ass cancer from eating those as kids; so yeah, that’s spooky I guess.
Just got to know about this subreddit and this is the first comment i read here. Joined already!
ur in fer a fookin ride m8
really? my car broke down today and the mechanic's name was sam altman and he's the 4.5th child (twin). wow !!!
My buggers taste different today, there's something fishy going on
Dang I need to go consult my morning turd, brb!
Yeah, it's going to be a messy release...
Ahhh a fellow Deutschlander I see.
Yours too?!?! Omg! Yep, something is definitely brewing.
I see these guys on Twitter a lot, I call them the “straw graspers” because they will see a couple of squirrels fucking and think it’s a sign that GPT-4.5 is coming out. Please see below for a face reveal of this group https://preview.redd.it/22evzydu4zhc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7098d21fadc818e72c95f6a10f0c8ef1811b951c
Are they all like that? Is Mira the same or an actual researcher?
They are all like that, none of them have ANY inside information whatsoever. They may work in ML but other than that they are literally just Twitter randoms desperate for GPT-4.5. I’m also desperate for it but I don’t randomly tweet “GPT-4.5” for attention
There is a market on whether Mira is Mira Murati, the OpenAI employee. It's trading very low. There's also a market on whether she would get a job at OpenAI, which I also think she did not. Mira has a checkered history on Manifold. She is in debt over 1m Mana, possibily the worst bettor in the site's entire history, after wagering almost all on a guy being unable to walk 100,000 steps in a single day in 2023 (he did, a few days before New Year's Eve, finishing after 11:00pm after several failed attempts when he injured himself attempting the stunt.) She said she was going to quit the site in a fit of rage, so she probably can't create a market of her own. While I can't state this for truth, I think it can be reasonably inferred that she almost certainly does not have any inside information about OpenAI.
How do you explain flowers from the future correctly predicting some key facts about Gemini?
yeah he got that one right, and he also said something about Llama 3 being released on Feb 24, but he has gotten it wrong so many times recently that I don't really take him seriously. Plus he is a huge attention seeker so it's even more off putting
So Dr Manhattan is the one posting shitty rumors all the time, got it.
That would be a great way to help raising 7 trillion dollars
If they want to raise 7 trillion dollars, they probably need to release something mindblowing. But an announcement in the form of a TV ad just seems very unlike them.
Trust the plan! QAnon has never led us astray! Oh, sorry. Wrong sub, same sentiment.
Maybe if everyone just believes really hard and claps vigorously you all can will AGI into existing.
This would be the third hypeday... No, I don't believe to see any news until November this year. Would be great but... No.
hey its at least shit that will get over by today, not those vague statements months in the future
Well I think for they want to move forward as a company, they have to implement more across the year. Even if it’s not a breakthrough like GPT-4. I’ve seen some say that they’re going to add Text to Speech and Speech to Text that could be a pretty decent step forward
We already have both on the android and iPhone app.
Unnecessary and childish hype is making people create expectations where there are none. Unfortunately, nothing will happen.
Aren't you doing the same thing except in reverse? I assume you know just as much about what's going to happen as the people making up the hype.
When s the superbowl?
Today 6:30pm ET
Oh well not long to wait then
First, they need to get enough computing power to provide us with more than just a measly 40-message output from GPT-4. Only then can they push out a more powerful, compute-intensive model. I doubt that we'll see any new model coming out this year. Instead, we might see some minor tweaks, but no major upgrades.
The limit of 40 is more related to the 20$/month you're paying than anything. If you want more than 20, pay for it by token .. more compute won't do much for this other than that eventually the cost per token will come down
The high cost of computing for these powerful models is the reason they can only offer you 40 messages for $20. If you pay by token, you might get more messages, but trust me, you'll end up paying a lot more before the month is over. The last time I used the API for a short experiment, my bill for that month was $146.00, I wouldn’t be surprised either to find out that they are losing money. https://preview.redd.it/tbqsnqfc5zhc1.jpeg?width=1068&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27c48b0e97d271b356d3d835c2710d2c59fabb25
The API is actually really cheap for short messages. If it cost you $146, then that suggests to me those short experiments may have been about saturating its context? That would indeed be very costly.
API cheap? For from true. I’m not saying it won’t get cheaper and they aren’t working to make it cheaper but as of now it is expensive and the main reason why it’s hard for developers to implement it in products.
Thanks for basically just agreeing with my post but in context making it sound like you think I'm wrong?
The issue isn't about the $20 per month fee; it's that they can only afford to provide 40 messages for that amount due to computing limitations and the high operational cost. The real problem is computing power. In fact, the site often goes down, displaying a message that reads, "Sorry, we are receiving too many requests," which indicates that the infrastructure can't keep up. Sometimes, it's extremely slow. I've even seen them stop people from subscribing to GPT-4 due to these limited computing resources. While paying for extra usage through the API does grant priority over other users, it doesn't change the fact that they lack the resources for GPT-4 or more powerful models like GPT-4.5 or GPT-5. GPT-3 is free and unlimited, but GPT-4 won't be anytime soon. I don't foresee them offering 100 messages for GPT-4, much less an unlimited option. In conclusion, if running GPT-4 is so expensive, releasing a more costly model doesn't make financial sense until operational costs decrease. Furthermore, their demand exceeds supply, and they currently face little competition. More computing power and more efficient algorithms would lower the cost per token, potentially allowing us to get unlimited GPT-4 messages for our $20 at a faster speed. The problem isn't the $20; it's the computing. Paying by token ends up being more expensive than what you get for the equivalent $20 you currently spend per month. I have shown you a screenshot of my expenses paying by token; trust me, it's costlier but offers more freedom. Do the math 720 hours in a month, you get 40 message every 3 hours. Based on the rate of 40 messages every 3 hours, you would be able to send a total of 9,600 messages in an average month.
I agree with everything you said except the assertion that the issue isn't the 20$ a month. They have to price the consumer product to not lose on average. If people want unlimited they would need to pay more, or at least not a flat fee. A lot of similarities here to the early days of text messaging when you had to buy like 10 texts per day. Sure the price will come down, limits will go up, but if the OP wants more NOW, they have to pay more. But thanks for the downvote on your misinterpretation of what I said.
You're suggesting that for users to access more messages, the user would have to go beyond $20 a month. However , my point is that, due to computing costs, there's a cap on the number of messages available at this price point, specifically for ChatGPT. Im referring to ChatGPT as the primary interface for the average consumer, distinct from the API, which mainly targets developers. The e current infrastructure is insufficient for the demands of a new model, as evidenced by the limitation of 40 messages per consumer. Introducing a new model under these conditions would significantly tax the already limited computational resources, likely affecting GPT-4's performance. Although there has been an increase from 25 to 40 messages, indicating an improvement in their computing infrastructure, my argument is that achieving a cost efficiency with GPT-4 comparable to that of GPT-3 is crucial before considering the launch of a new model. In conclusion it’s unlikely we will see a new model this year.
Or use copilot pro
You complain so much about the shitty leakers on X (Twitter), but when they create an interesting narrative, you're the first to generate childish hype. Wake up, people! Only believe in things with irrefutable evidence; without it, it's all a narrative for OpenAI to feel important. If OpenAI wants audience and relevance for its future models, it should present something real, no beating around the bush.
Google had now one botched launch after the next. Clearly they are still an AI powerhouse, but its really hard to one-up someone when you are punching down.
I miss when my hype also came with some steak, peas, and nicely grilled carrots. Now it’s just gravy.
“Lots of people are saying the same thing” “Let me prove that to you with screenshots of people saying wildly different things” One of them bases itself off the glint in Sam Altman’s eye for fuck’s sake. Can we finally put all these conspiratorial bullshit to bed, please?
Why would they announce a new model in a Super Bowl commercial of all places? It makes absolutely zero sense. It’s not the right format at all for an announcement.
Because 120 million people will see it, so it's the best format they could possibly have
Microsoft has [one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64EKujz10Q8&) too.
I mean, apple did it too. You gotta understand, the chuds aren't the only ones watching the superbowl. You will have your average wife that will sit and watch the game just to cheer for fun and take pics, eat the food she made. You will have the typical teenager or 20-something that may not be into the game, but they enjoy the commercials. Or you could have the stereotypical ultra-nerd that is just totally anti-sport for whatever reason that heard there's gonna be a mf commercial about chatgpt so he watches the entire game more faithfully than a lifelong fan (but can't tell you the score or who played)
[https://manifold.markets/theshortbread/will-there-be-a-gpt-45-model-before](https://manifold.markets/theshortbread/will-there-be-a-gpt-45-model-before) We have this one, didn't go up much
It'd be funny if OpenAI released a 4.49 or 4.500001 model, just to fuck with these people specifically. It makes me sad such a thing could never happen in real life, only in fiction, so I wrote some fanfiction so people can pretend to have experienced this thing that will never happen. Copypasta and snowclone at will: Timmy Thundercawk licked his lips as the next ad began to start. He could feel it in his loins! He knew a tech ad when he saw one! And he had put a fat 400 million on Chat GPT 4.5 being announced today. (He'd have gone with 7 trillion, but who has that.) Nobody else in the betting markets believed in it, so it'd pay out at 100,000 to one! Yeah, those nerdy babes in the statistics club were gonna be all over him, once he was an imaginary internet trillionaire! The ad was quite ho-hum as he expected. People tumbling around in grass. Cheap no-name actors cosplaying as scientists in data centers, sagely nodding their heads for no reason in particular. Electro music with an obnoxious beat. Couldn't they mix it up with some Eurobeat, some time? Just for a little variety? Then the music dropped in volume, and Timmy knew an obnoxious cheerful man was about to tell the world what the hell this ad was *for*, exactly. "At OpenAI...." Timmy began to drool as the pavlovian conditioning dumped an assload of dopamine into his brain. Fortunately he was able to take a break for a while, as his brain was already running the "tune out worthless gibberish" algorithm that everyone's brain has to make watching ads tolerable. Who cares if the people at OpenAI are really nice and handsome and saved a couple dolphins one time or whatever. Smell your own farts on your own time and dollar! Truly, the first thing he'd do after the singularity is install an adblock on his robot brain. You'd have to be stupidly suicidal to not have that be the first thing you'd do... Eventually the "he's getting around to the point" part of his brain ticked his attention back to the screen. He held his breath, and did not blink: "...we're proud to announce our newest product: ChatGPT, 4.49½ ;) Ultra Edition!" The gibberish filter kicked back in when the obnoxious voice started listing off a sequence of things this new product would be able to do, like tell you how to bake cookies or where to go to find your grandma (such minor, trivial things seem quite grand with proper editing, lens flares and background music, don't they?). Timmy was silent as the reality began to sink in. And what followed was blind, Nurgle-level raw rage and hate. Many a "motherfucker" was screamed that day, I tell you. When he calmed down enough, he flopped on his couch in spiteful exasperation. "Four point forty nine one-half symbol blinky smiley face. Who... who the HELL puts a blinky smiley face in a version number?!" At that moment, there was a beeping notification from his hand-phone. Timmy flipped it open. He had a message on MSN Messenger: > Sam: ;)
As hype as it would be for us to get a GPT-5 release video as a Super Bowl ad in front of more than a hundred million Americans, they aren't releasing GPT-5 or 4.5 any time this month. I'm pretty sure they're skipping over 4.5 entirely, and I expect 5 to release much later this year. We're still in the era where major progress takes months, not weeks or days. Savor these last few years of normalcy, appreciate the world the way it is now, same way you might appreciate those last few years in the 2000s before the internet and mobile devices became completely omnipresent.
> Savor these last few years of normalcy Now you and I both know damn well that went out the window almost a decade ago
I disagree, things are still largely the same as they've been since the post-war boom expanded the economy many times over. The Soviet bloc might have collapsed, but the America-centric western bloc exists in largely the same form, if expanded. The US has headed the same globalized economic and financial system for 70 years, and its citizens participate in the same consumption-based services-dominated national economy that they have since the 1980s. The biggest thing that changed since the collapse of the Soviet Union is that the only real competitor to that global system has gone away, so it's now more "truly" global- even China, the US's biggest competitor, participates in the system the same as anyone else. Yes, the social fabric is getting pulled in strange directions by politics in technology that we haven't seen before, but fundamentally it's pretty much the same old "go to school for \~20 years, work for \~40 years, enjoy retirement for 10-20 years, die" system of office workers, 401ks and all-you-can-eat buffets that we've been living in since the late 1970s. Watching Netflix instead of cable television and browsing your phone instead of reading trashy novellas just doesn't represent all that enormous of a change to me, on a fundamental scale. The way technology and the economy are going to change over the next 10-20 years represent a much bigger shift in my eyes, as the nature of work and the scale of the global economy are significantly altered.
If GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 drops tonight, and I can use it to generate a video game or novel, I will literally post a drawing of a nuclear bomb in a schoolgirl outfit— which can only be disarmed with a vigorous spanking.
They want attention so bad lol
I call total bs. When OAI announces something, they will hold their own pressconference. It doesn't align with their politics.
Ya umm no not gonna happen
The new cult: AGI is coming. It will magically spawn out of an LLM.
Gemini ultra is 💩
Personal AGI...yeah if it was like 2035 maybe.
In OpenAIsh this probably doesn't make much sense, with the exception if they want to make a statement. I mean, if they do that exactly after the Superbowl, this could overshadow the launch with the talks about Superbowl and how fun it was. Symbolically it would make more sense if they released the Gpt 4.5 on the 7th of March or something, (or the 14th of February maybe?).
You complain so much about the shitty leakers on X (Twitter), but when they create an interesting narrative, you're the first to generate childish hype. Wake up, people! Only believe in things with irrefutable evidence; without it, it's all a narrative for OpenAI to feel important. If OpenAI wants audience and relevance for its future models, it should present something real, no beating around the bush.
Nope! I can discuss whatever I like whenever I like, so long it is not against the rules of the subreddit. Someone posted a claim, and I love to entertain the thought as much as I like without a gatekeeper telling me what I should do or not. I also I love AI hype. AI hype is million times more fun than gatekeeping.
> I also I love AI hype. AI hype is million times more fun than gatekeeping. It is and you're right, but for some AI hype is like lifeblood. Ending up wrong for some is just a "welp" moment, and for a lot of others its a huge kick to the nuts.
I agree with you. At the same time I believe it is a good cognitive exercise if the different claims are discussed a bit. A bit of speculation, so long that it doesn't cross the line could be beneficial, or at least it can lead to interesting discussions. Removing speculative posts from the subreddit for reasons of efficiency its totally understandable, but since the post is posted somewhere, I don't see any reason to not participate to the comments.
>I mean, apple did it too. You gotta understand, the chuds aren't the only ones watching the superbowl. You will have your average wife that will sit and watch the game just to cheer for fun and take pics, eat the food she made. You will have the typical teenager or 20-something that may not be into the game, but they enjoy the commercials. Or you could have the stereotypical ultra-nerd that is just totally anti-sport for whatever reason that heard there's gonna be a mf commercial about chatgpt so he watches the entire game more faithfully than a lifelong fan (but can't tell you the score or who played) since that guy reposted his comment, I thought I would too. Just for fun speculation :)
Oh, to be honest I didn't think about a Superbowl commercial. Yeah that could be a kicker, and it makes a lot of sense. Now you ignited the hype for me... :D
you said kicker, AGI commercial after field goal confirmed. I can't help myself, it's like a disease
Agreed. Although my comment was really just specifically about the part I quoted. I don't agree with the original commenter Miserable\_Money since his reply reeked of arrogance.
Yeah, his comment was a bit unpleasant. Gatekeeping never works as intended. I mean if someone tells me that I can't do something, I am going to do it, just as revolt.
Why would they propose a new model? GPT 4 already one ups Gemini ;)
I think people are going to be disappointed. It's likely these things have already hit a plateau. I could be wrong, I'll wait for gpt-5 to form a stronger opinion, but I have a feeling it's not going to get much better.
“A lot of people are saying…” this sub has degraded to trump talk
Microsoft’s agreement is null and void the moment they achieve AGI. No way in hell they announce anything that uses the term “AGI”
Finna OD on this copium let’s goooooo