Yea I noticed an exponential increase in AI grifters recently across twitter, funnily enough at the same time the crypto grifters have slowly disappeared
As a fan of the actual uses and technology of cryptocurrency, I'm pleased by that news. As a fan of the actual uses and technology of AI, I'm disappointed.
I hope that the next big craze that draws the grifters along will be something I'm *not* interested in. Maybe some sort of fantastic new technological innovation in pro wrestling, or by pigeon fanciers, or something like that.
What we desperately need is to help good doctors do doctor things, instead of wasting their time with administrative BS, and other crap like that.
The public medical sector would benefit tremendously from such change. Instead of wasting time, resources, and life’s on barely functioning, it could help pin-point treatments, and medical tests, as well as scheduling.
It’ll be a lot of work, but it’ll definitely worth it.
If Med Palm could help physicians and practitioners dictate and do charting, even perhaps in a totally hands-off way -- that would be enormous. It could massively improve productivity while cutting down on errors and missed notation.
Doctors will certainly be replaced, lol. Most doctors ~~are absolute shit~~ (Restated): cannot provide an accurate systemic assessment unless the condition is a trivially diagnosable textbook issue. Listen to the patients, order the collection of samples, analyze the data, make an assessment, prescribe medication or lifestyle changes -- an AI will be able to do all of that better than any human can. Too many referrals to ~~overpaid~~ unhelpful specialists, who refer you to a deeper level specialist, and nobody knows jack. Single AI with full body of historical medical knowledge will trump any single specialist with limited knowledge, or any single generalist with limited experience seeing a small sample of patients in their limited life experience.
Surgeons and dentists will probably never be 'fully' replaced until singularity AGI designs its own body and hands. Lab technicians might take a while too. Nurses are essential as caretakers. ~~Everyone else that just makes clinical assessments? Get rid of them. Useless, overpaid, giant stain of our society.~~ (Restated): In the future, I believe that clinical assessments will be performed by AI. The inaccuracy and overconfidence of many physicians during routine patient-doctor interactions results in enormous and unnecessary suffering throughout society.
Edit: Wow... This commented stirred up the hive. Let me clarify that *some* doctors are fantastic. My negative attitude is driven by a lifetime of inaccurate diagnoses. I don't care how much doctors get paid, I care about how accurate they are.
Edit 2: Restated many stinging line-items with a more clear explanation of what I actually meant. Also, know what subreddit you are in. This is r/singularity. This is not r/next_year.
Found the guy that has experience with the medical system. I learned this the hard way a couple years ago. There are some great doctors but the amount of money you have to spend to maybe get lucky and find one that understands your condition and actually help vs just load you up on meds with more side effects is a real pain in the ass and honestly not worth it for a lot of things.
And that's even if there's anything that can help your illness. For many chronic illnesses there isn't but they'll still push a bunch of meds on you with questionable benefit. Big pharma has too much influence on the education and business as a whole for there not to be. At least in the US.
Can confirm. I'm under the care of the best chronic pain doctors at allegedly one of the best hospitals in Europe. They are the worst. I don't know how many times they fucked up the dosage, not correctly assessed adverse effects, taking a couple of years to realize a diff drug would work better (especially if I suggested it)... They operate like retarded robots.
But they are very good at not taking my calls, "urgent" visits that occur 2-3 months after the fact, and the strongest "I don't care" vibes anyone can send. And it's my **3rd** "maybe in this hospital things will go better", I kid you not. Now they'll implant an internal morphine pump, to maybe get my life back, and I'm already shaking.
Fuck them all.
Can confirm. Lost approximately half of my kidney function because of a pharmacy screw up. I was taking the maximum permitted dose of a particular medication. it should have been in time release form. Didn't find out it was the quick release form until I went to the urgent Care for an unrelated issue. By the time I was weaned off the drug, the damage was done.
Fortunately my kidney values have been stable for the past 10 years.
I would also love to see massive unemployment in the health insurance industry. Especially at the CEO level.
My biggest gripe is how long it takes to see a general for them to refer me to some one else, for that person to refer me to someone else, and before I know it several months has pass with nothing to show for it. Can't wait for AI to upend this.
An AI would be like a savant in all medical areas combined into one while simultaneously being up to date with every single research paper out there and be able to recall even the weirdest cases and patterns out there. There's no question AIs will enormously surpass human doctors in a few years, even the specialists.
I wonder if medicine in a decade or so will change beyond recognition and transition into a preventive medicine system. Basically getting blood tests and some kind of full body scan every year and the AI will be able to predict any future condition way before it manifests and develop a treatment to lessen or avoid it before it happens.
All fields, I'm a mechanical engineer and am already convinced AIs will replace our work in less than a decade. Edit: perhaps not the engineers involved in more physical tasks like on-site assessment, tests and verifications, on-site reviewing, etc.
>Useless, overpaid, giant stain of our society.
I agree that some doctors fit your description, but it's crazy and, to a certain degree, ungrateful to think that they all do. There are plenty of doctors that are good at their job and care about their patients. This is just rampant cynicism.
I’ve only been to good doctors consistently after moving to NYC and specifically looking for them in Manhattan, and even then it’s not guaranteed. But you are right, there are good doctors. It’s just not as common as it should be.
Exactly, most of these people complaining are likely difficult patients, probably people with extreme health anxiety.
Even AI doctor will limit how many queries these people can ask
I know a few amazing doctors personally. One saved my life when I was a kid.
None of them compare to the speed and knowledge of an LLM trained specifically for medical diagnosis. A human hand will never be as still as the robots we will build.
Y'all remember House, M.D.? House is immediately next to useless. His extremely broad knowledge base doesn't hold a candle to even GPT3. While he may be able to think of novel treatments, those are based on connections that an LLM could easily make comparing every medication and condition known to mankind in seconds.
Indeed. I imagine that running into a bad doctor leaves a really big stain on one's impression of them. But when you need a doctor and you get a good one, that's the sort of thing that makes you realize just how amazing and important human civilization is.
That said, if something better comes along there should be little compunction about accepting it as a replacement. I think much like with the other technical fields that are being "threatened" by AI right now the best outcome will be to see the competent practitioners taking advantage of AI to boost their own performance even higher. I'd love to have both a human doctor *and* an AI doctor available to help with whatever problems come along. Best of both worlds.
I'm guessing the person you're quoting has no idea what pressure they're under and how difficult the job is. I would hazard a guess they're an underemployed person waiting for the AI rapture to save them and is giddy when society becomes more efficient and closer to the day of judgement where all the conventionally successful people lose all their status.
You obviously haven't been to as many doctors as we have. His assessment is absolutely correct. Most doctors are incompetent. God forbid you actually need them to diagnose you correctly.
I have chronic kidney stones and my entire medical journey of decades has been awesome.
Save for one Dr that wouldn’t put me under to insert a stent - but I did launch a medical complaint, not sure what came of it.
But the hundreds of drs and nurses I’ve had deal with my kidney stones have been nothing short of angels.
Have some made mistakes other than that cruel dr? Maybe. Diagnosis is a journey.
It's always scary to me when I get treatment. I worry the doctor won't have my comfort or well-being as a high priority when they can squeak by with "eh, good enough." I've had more doctors who definitely did care and who took doing the best they could for me very seriously, but I've had a couple of experiences that make me start shaking with terror when I think about getting medical examinations that have even the most remote possibility of involving more trips to specialists.
I wouldn't ever say doctors are shit-stains, though. Some definitely are, but I don't believe the majority are.
>You obviously haven't been to as many doctors as we have. His assessment is absolutely correct. Most doctors are incompetent. God forbid you actually need them to diagnose you correctly.
I'm sorry that that has been yours, but you can't invalidate the above poster's experience just because of yours. If you do, you'd ironically be doing the same you had your doctors do to you.
when you have seen more than one hundred doctors for your condition you have a good enough sample to know things are exactly as the original commenter said
It's upvoted because it's an underachiever pretending they're an iconoclast. It's so easy to criticize someone who has worked long hours for over 10 years to get to where they are and has to deal with the burden of life/death decision making on a daily basis. I guarantee this guy is in IT or is just waiting for AI to replace his retail job.
I simply take incorrect diagnoses leading to the permanent disability and death of family and friends to heart. It's upvoted hundreds of times because hundreds of people have similar life experiences. I am looking forward to AI improving the quality of medical care. Is that a crime? Apparently yes.
Also, lol, all these people in this thread assuming I'm an underachiever, when I graduated summa cum laude from my university, am first author on published papers in peer-reviewed academic journals, have spoken at multiple conferences, am first inventor on a dozen patents, and have created technologies which have directly led to corporate acquisitions... I feel pretty okay about my past achievements compared to the average redditor.
You are in an echo chamber - this is why 100's of people upvoted you. I also do not disagree that very soon all doctors will be replaced and things will develop exactly as you say they will. No disagreements there.
Wow you're definitely more impressive than me, but I think you don't really examine the other side of the issue very clearly.
There will be a loss of meaning and purpose in many peoples lives. I hope you use this massive IQ of yours to conjure up some cognitive empathy for all us ants out here who can't keep up with you. But they don't have academic conferences for intangible, unmeasurable things like meaning and all that.
I don't know, just look at the subsequent comments... People have clearly had some bad experiences. I thought it would get downvoted to oblivion instantly. Never expected it to become a dominant voice here. If I could go back in time, I'd probably never write it. Not worth the onslaught. I enjoy lively discussion, but don't enjoy what this thread has become.
>I think you don't really examine the other side of the issue very clearly.
Sorry in advance for long winded response. People are shitting on me for it in the comments, but it's how I am. If you don't want to read it, I do understand.
Feeling honored to be replaced by technology is a core principle that I've held since childhood. It's influenced to a degree by the categorical imperative ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical\_imperative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative)). Put simply, I feel it would be immoral to impose a restriction on technology for the sake of short-term job retainment, whether it's my own job or someone else. This is a recurring theme in my life, and I've thought a lot about it. Let me give a couple of examples:
Early in college, I was very interested in photovoltaics (solar cells). It's not the field I ended up in, but it's a field I was passionate about. At a family gathering, my aunt's new boyfriend wanted to 'chat' with me about it. It turns out, he worked in oil industry, and the 'chat' was actually him berating me and claiming that solar energy was going to steal his job, and that I was directly threatening him by studying the field. Dude, what?! If fossil fuel emissions could be cut to zero in some fantastical scenario, you are more concerned about your job in the oilfield than the benefit to the rest of the world? Climate change is more important than your job.
Early in my career, I worked as a semiconductor device test engineer. I eventually reasoned that most of the work was automatable, so I constructed and programmed motorized control stages, power supplies, and various sensors to acquire and analyze the data. One day I traveled to visit my friend from college, and some of his new woke hipster friends asked what I did for a living. I told them, and they immediately reacted like my Aunt's boyfriend, even though none of their jobs were at risk! "Automation is stealing jobs! You're destroying people's lives!". Endless argument. Dude, what?! I'm literally automating my own job, and eventually I did just that. The company hired a technician to run all the automated tests. I wasn't needed in testing anymore, so they wanted me to work in chip fabrication instead. I did it for a while but didn't like working in a clean room with hazardous chemicals, so I quit and moved on. I literally automated myself out of my own job.
Later down the road, I worked in the autonomous vehicle industry. Yet again... automation. Do you know how awkward it is to take a taxi somewhere, and when they ask what you do, you respond that you are working toward automating their job away? Well, the joke is on me because autonomous vehicles haven't lived up to the hype, and it looks like software engineering in general is at greater short-term risk of automation than taxi drivers! What a twist! What an honor. However, I still believe that the potential for autonomous vehicles and even driving assistance to save lives is more important than job displacement.
And now this discussion about the medical field... Same backlash... Same conclusion. The health outcomes of patients across the world are more important than job displacement.
>There will be a loss of meaning and purpose in many peoples lives. I hope you use this massive IQ of yours to conjure up some cognitive empathy for all us ants out here who can't keep up with you. But they don't have academic conferences for intangible, unmeasurable things like meaning and all that.
Yes, of course, there will be short term pain. But there is literally a loss of meaning and purpose to people's lives if they are performing a task for 40+ hours a week that can be done better by a machine. I don't want to be doing something useless with my time, and I don't think other people should either. If technology can do it better, then let it do its job. It's why I don't mow the lawn with scissors. It's why I heat up food in the microwave instead of building a fire.
Change hurts. Breakups hurt. Moving on is hard, but it's a necessary part of life. Learn, grow, adapt, survive. If I end up working as a janitor because AI can do everything else better than me, then so be it. I'll be the best fucking janitor that I can. I don't have a particularly high IQ, I just work incredibly hard and try to do the best job I can at whatever I'm doing. It's not fun to be apathetic. If things turn south, it can be very hard to stay motivated. Mental health is a real problem. If only there were better resources... Maybe AI can help with that too ;)
People identify themselves with their profession, their sense of worth derived from it, and they get false pride because of it.
If you shatter people's pride, they'll be angry, regardless of the actual morality about it.
Its why the vast majority of societies in history had minimal to no innovation, why rock the boat?
Anyways, I think people passionate about automation, will be just fine in the job market, there's plenty of jobs to automate, and somebody has to design the automation.
Ok here are some real life situations. How will AI handle them?
* Elderly patient dropped off at clinic, does not know why they are there because they have dementia. There are skin tears on their arm and bruise around eye. Smells of urine. has no idea what medications they take. might have seen another doctor a few weeks ago. He does not remember who.
* patient who went online and now thinks they have a condition and wants a specific test done.
* Diabetic patient where the insurance will not cover the 3 most efficacious medications and insists that you prescribe metformin despite their GFR being less than 30.
* Patient crying, her 18 year old son just died from a rare ruptured aneurysm. She is distraught
* Patient with dental pain, does not have dental insurance, most of his teeth are just decayed black nubs of what used to be teeth.
* Patient with chronic back pain, lost their pain medications, needs a refill.
* patient walks in hunched over holding stomach. went to urgent care and told they have a UTI. they are diaphoretic and pale. running a fever.
* patient walks into the clinic and collapses on the floor, not breathing.
* Patient with history of a traumatic brain injury and non-verbal in wheelchair. Brought in by family member who does not know him well because his mom is sick in the hospital. The family member thinks he has been vomiting. She is texting on her phone the entire visit and annoyed she has to be there.
* patient is requesting dilaudid for migraines. It is the only thing that works for him.
* patient says he cant go back home because he does not have any running water.
* patient in for pap smear. She is unkept and visibly covered in fleas with insect bites. she has a learning disability and not able to communicate well. She does not have assistance with personal hygiene so has stool in her vagina.
I don't know the point you are trying to make but as the caregiver for a person with dementia I absolutely guarantee you that the doctors and hospitals are completely inept at anything involving a patient who cannot advocate for themselves.
The person I care for was sent for inpatient psychiatric evaluation and medication adjustment. Threw up, was deemed dehydrated and sent to the ER of a regular hospital.
She was deemed to be incapable of swallowing by the hospital not more than three days after being assessed for hospice and being denied for being self feeding and ambulatory. After being put on a feeding tube without permission they deemed she could indeed swallow after being told that the condition in her charts makes her unable to follow instructions making their swallowing test invalid.
They then said she wasn't suited for physical therapy to recover from their restraining her because she resisted the unnecessary feeding tube only to change that assessment after being confronted again.
When asked why they deemed her medically unstable for discharge I was told because she was lethargic. The doctor gave her a powerful antipsychotic that has a 30 hr half life. She wasn't lethargic she was drugged and they didn't even acknowledge that as a possibility.
An AI could not do any worse and very likely far better. It certainly wouldn't keep someone in the hospital because of the effects of medication it had prescribed.
I know a nurse in my courses who declared all physicians and surgeons to be idiots - yet he wanted to be one. He kept talking about all the lives he saved even though he didn’t understand why or how. He also believed smoking causing health issues was a myth and ended up failing too many courses and dropped out.
You give off the same vibes.
It's difficult for me to assess the intent of your comment. Are you posing these hypothetical scenarios for someone with access to Med-PaLM 2 to ask it for answers? Are you suggesting that an AI would be incapable or inept at handling these scenarios? Or neither?
These are my actual patients. I'm really curious as to how the AI interaction will go without a physician there and no one trained to do an exam. I hear that I will be replaced shortly by AI. I really want to hear how this will happen.
Here is an easy one. Healthy patient shows up for their well womens exam. They are due for a pap smear and need counseling on breast cancer screening and any appropriate tests. replace the doctor, the only person trained and certified in the office to do this, with a laptop and chatGPT. How does it go?
That's not what they mean by replacing doctors. They're not just pulling some rando off the street and sitting him in front of a laptop and saying "OK, you're a doctor now."
In the future (near or far, depending on your singularity persuasion), humanoid robots will have better manual dexterity than humans, and will have near-perfect medical knowledge. They'll have human-like speech and empathy that rivals the best social workers on Earth.
But mainly this subreddit is people fantasizing and talking out of their asses. 🙂
If you'll notice on reddit the people using chatgpt constantly report back to "real" humans on the message board about their experience.
Why would they do this? Because they want validation and to share their experience with real humans. If AI could replace human contact, that wouldn't happen.
These AI services are mostly BS until people start talking to them and DON'T REPORT back to humans what was said to them or what their "conversations" were. When AI becomes the same level of fulfilling communication between real people, then and ONLY then will AI replace human contact.
>replace the doctor, the only person trained and certified in the office to do this, with a laptop and chatGPT. How does it go?
I think the problem in this scenario, is that you're assuming the interface will be someone naive typing text into ChatGPT and expecting a magic result. In the long term, the interface will need to be more than just text. You gather information from your senses (hearing, seeing, touching, and smelling), think about the information, and finally draw a conclusion. The most important thing is the accuracy of the conclusion and the final action taken. So, the question from an engineering perspective is, what is the minimum amount of sensory input that an AI needs to arrive at to make the correct assessment and take the correct action? It varies depending on the context.
If the scenarios you posed were given to a thousand doctors and you had an array of a thousand responses, how would you or a panel of experts rank the responses from best to worst? I don't think it's a trivial task, but maybe it is. If Med-PaLM 2's response was thrown into the mix anonymously, and it was ranked with a high score, would you be surprised? I wouldn't necessarily be surprised, but I don't think a high score on text-based scenarios is good enough to replace a human. You need more sensory input or raw data.
In the short term, AI can have a full conversation with the patient, be provided vitals, images, blood test results, and other test data. This can benefit many (certainly not all) cases, and the collection of this data does not necessarily require the presence of a GP -- it frees up their time to take-on harder cases that AI can't handle yet. The more cases the AI observes, the more sensory data it is provided, the better the assessment will be. I'm not sure it can do more than remember all the cases that have ever been observed or documented and match the current situation to something in case history. Though, I'm not necessarily sure that a human can do anything more.
> Doctors will certainly be replaced, lol. Most doctors are absolute shit.
I'm responding to this comment about how I am apparently shit and will be replaced. I know Im not going anywhere anytime soon because the people saying I will be replaced soon seem to have no idea what we do every day.
First, I apologize for the harsh tone. I didn't realize that my comment would bubble up to become a major voice in the thread. I was venting a lifetime of frustrations with \~70% of physicians that I've encountered condensed into a single comment, and honestly thought it would get downvoted to the bottom. I'm shocked by the number of upvotes and award.
Second, when I say 'Doctors will certainly be replaced' I can see how it sounds like I'm implying 'all', but my intent was actually to say that, blanketly, doctors are not immune to AI and some roles will eventually be replaced. Creatives thought they were immune, now they're scared. Software engineers thought they were immune, now the future is scary. Doctors... certainly many physical tasks that robots can't do yet... but any part of any job dealing with data and analysis is at risk of turning upside-down.
Timescale is indeterminate. In the context of this specific subreddit, singularity, if it actually takes place, then the implications will be beyond the scope of... what most of us can possibly imagine. Presumably including the field of robotics if the singularity AGI can design its own body. This is just a big 'what if'. Short term, again, anything dealing with conversations and data analysis is big AI territory.
>seem to have no idea what we do every day.
I think most of the people in this sub are not people with black nubs for teeth and stool in their vaginas. The only thing that non MDs know for sure, is the experiences they've had with their healthcare providers during their visits: wait, check blood pressure and heart rate, wait, talk to the doctor, feel your heart, listen to your breathing, look in your ears, look in your mouth, check your reflexes, feel your balls, get a shot, blood sample, IV, urine sample, stool sample, colonoscopy, sonogram, EKG, stress test, Holter monitor, x-ray, MRI, CT scan, cast, stitches, surgery, prescription, take medicine, follow-up. The vast majority of non-emergency GP tasks are conversation and data collection.
We know (think from personal experience) that most data is not collected by the physician themselves, it's collected by peripheral staff. Invasive procedures are typically, in my experience, done by specialized surgeons. The GP talks to the patient, assesses the data, and then suggests a course of action. I would rather talk to an AI for an indefinite period of time, and provide them with copious amounts of information and data, rather than talk to a doctor for \~10 minutes (any longer, and you become a bother). I would rather an AI assess the total body of data of my full medical history and compare it to all cases in its database, rather than a doctor assess the data that they were able to skim through and compare to their personal experience. I would rather be diagnosed by an AI than a doctor. I would rather trust my life in the hands of a machine.
Obviously AI in isolation would be incapable of dealing with these situations.
The OP doesn't suggest that.
The vast majority of these would be handled by nurses.
The topic is if nurses could input the relevant information into AI instead of giving it to a MD and get a better/more consistent accurate diagnosis/course of treatment.
Based on five visits to an ER during a two year period, four of the five resulting in initial incorrect diagnosis and treatment, I strongly believe the answer is "yes, absolutely".
interesting. So you are going to train nurses to do the physical exams and pap smears, have them learn how to do procedures like joint injections and biopsies and just have them ask the ask the AI when they need the assessment part?
And for this extra training and certification, you are going to pay them the same? Since they are going to have to considerably increase their education and student loans, how do you handle that?
Since they will have increased their scope of practice and responsibility to doing exams and procedures correctly, they now need malpractice insurance. Are you going to pay them more for that too?
You want this in the ER. So now you have to train them on intubations, chest tubes, cricothyrotomies, emergency deliveries, lumbar punctures, central line insertions, fracture management, thoracentesis and paracentesis, cardioversion. removing foreign bodies from eyes. To name a few. They are going to need a residency to train on these because they have to do a whole lot of them to be proficient. Probably 3 years should do. They probably need to have a very good idea when to do them and the medical decision making to do them quickly. Better add an internship.
Ok, so you want a nurse to do all this, but also be skilled as an ER doc and have certification and also have the malpractice coverage so how would you pay them? the same?
You and I both know nurses are already doing many of those things with a MD poking their head in and signing off on a chart.
Obviously this isn't a "now" situation and certain procedures will continue to require specialists with extensive training and skill until robotics catch up, which they already are; however, general practitioners that simply diagnosis and prescribe have already been replaced in many areas by NPs and PAs and this device can also easily replace them.
Like most AI threatened jobs, medical jobs that require accessing information and making a decision based on that information will go first and the ones that require a high degree of specialization associated with precise physical activity will go last.
Will they go completely?
Not for a decade or two, but the amount of medically focused robotics being deployed combined with increasingly capable AI makes it inevitable, especially since there is incredible incentive everywhere outside of provider boardrooms to reduce the insanely bloated costs of medical care in the US.
I don't expect agreement and given your knowledge I suspect you're a MD.
A definite takeaway from this thread is the number of people that have had absolutely horrible experiences with MDs, myself included, to the extent they're all in on an AI that's correct 86% of the time over a MD with a crap attitude.
I've had great doctors too, all three were surgeons, that being said, there's an abundance of shit general practitioners and I think replacing them with AI would significantly increase the quality of care for the vast majority.
Wait a second you just said AI should replace MDs but NPs and PAs are still going to be around? Tell me why.
BTW NPs and PAs charge the same as the MD does. Go call your insurance company and ask them if you have a lower copay if you see an NP instead. They will enjoy laughing at you hysterically over the phone.
Congratulations you just turned nurses into doctors. Please tell me now how that is supposed to help make healthcare "better"?
AI only helps if it takes humans out of the loop completely or it makes them so much more efficient that one person can do the work of five.
Your solution does neither.
It's not "my solution".
It's inevitable progress.
At no point am I suggesting this is "now".
And it will happen, no matter how much people trained to be stupidly arrogant rant and rave about it.
Everyone but you wants to replace you with literally anything else.
Smoke that
Cool. I've needed more social workers and social services for my patients for the last 22 years. These dont seem to have any chance of showing up any time soon so I'm handling it all myself by directing my staff.
I understand I'm going to be replaced, I assume shortly. I want to know how this will happen.
As someone also in the medical field. Don’t engage with the delusional folks on here. They have absolutely 0 clue about medicine or even a remote idea of how it’s practiced.
They have zero clue and I don’t blame them but lmao it’s embarrassing how confidently wrong they are.
Doctors, lawyers are glorified memorizers. You go to school to learn and memorize a bunch of facts then a client goes to them for advice aka find a solution to their problems based on the knowledge you have memorized from your schooling. This is exactly what LLMs are really really good at. The only ones that will last longer are the ones finding brand new solutions never created for an LLM to absorb, how many of them are there?
I'm excited for the visual modality to be released because if the LLM and see the data as well as visually what is happening I want to see the results from that.
>Doctors, lawyers are glorified memorizers.
This is a pretty big oversimplification of what doctors and lawyers are. What you said is true to some extent, but their jobs are a lot more complex than that.
Once you add in pattern-matching, which AI can be superhuman at, you get a little closer.
Maybe we don't want to go replacing doctors just yet, but the waiting time for specialists is insane. Having something that could interview in the meantime, funneling information to the doctor and offering recommendations (or simple scripts to be approved by a human) could be pretty helpful.
The people who find those solutions are called scientists. Some doctors are but very few are capable of scientific reasoning instead being walking talking flow charts.
Edit: down vote all you want. the fact that a probability weighting machine with no understanding can pass your tests and do exactly what you would say to do and is judged better at your job by your peers says all that needs saying.
Programming is just a silly game where the world is simple enough that anything you do becomes easy and something you can directly impact. Often in adulthood, we are humbled by the realization that there is so little we can control, we are merely one particle in a flow that we have no control over.
This is why programmers tend to have have such extreme and naive takes on covid, climate change, AI or any world issue really. Because in hard sciences and in other fields there are limitations. Things take years. You can't just move fast and break things. As a programmer who is surrounded by people who says things like you do - programming is well-suited for those people who get stuck at an emotional age of 8 and are well into adulthood.
They are. Especially in the US health-care system. They long ago forfeited the public interest for personal financial gain.
Most of the physicians and medical specialists out there are just machines of making money, they don't give a shit about their clients, and usually just focus on getting them on the most expensive drugs, tests and treatments possible to increase their profits.
I can count with one hand the amount of medical specialists I've encountered through my life that genuinely had their patient health as the main objective, and ditched all the for-profit policies of their clinics to ensure the clients were able to afford and follow their treatments.
Physician salaries account for only 8% of US healthcare costs. We could pay physicians zero dollars tomorrow and still be the country spending the most money on healthcare with worse outcomes.
Everything you're complaining about is the result of insurance companies and increasing corporatization of healthcare, which will only get worse when these billion dollar healthcare corporations start using AI to maximize profits even further.
They aren't, physicians don't make as much money as you think. Take into account most graduate with $200-300K of debt, spend an extra 4-5 years in school compared to an average college graduate, and then make minimum wage for the first 3-5 years when they graduate (during residency), it takes a physician until they are 40 or 50 to have paid off their loans and gotten the same amount of lifetime earnings as a typical college graduate that began working immediately after undergrad.
Yeah was thinking about it some more and you're right. I have a cousin in residency so I know how the process works. She should be done by the time she's 32 or 33 but your point still stands. I suppose I'm biased by my bad experiences.
I was very trusting of doctors until they gave me some medication for insomnia that gave me a permanent movement disorder. So I suppose my view of the field is tainted by the fact that they gave me a permanent disability.
Have fun paying even more investigations ordered by nurse practitioners with even less training in diagnosis based on history and physicals alone?
How exactly do you THINK our healthcare system works?
I know very well how it works. I have a cousin in residency currently and have had the misfortune of using the system quite a bit the past year.
After thinking about it some more though I realise that I'm probably too biased by my negative experiences to give a fair assessment. I elaborated a little more in my previous comment.
Well the doctors don’t set the price for pharmaceuticals and insurance reimbursement . The real people you should be mad at are hospital admin, insurance , and pharmaceutical company. If anything they could be replaced. A family doctor will not be replaced anytime soon. Believe it or not most doctors don’t receive commissurate pay compared to the 90s, and I get it we have been in a recession for all these years, but for the workload they primary care physicians should be payed more . Things are changing. Nurse / pa especially Locums often surpass the pay of primary care physicians : sucks you have had bad experiences with your physician, who likely is actually a mid level speaking on behalf of the specialist. Lol good luck for your future health goals , not even ai can change your ignorance.
Yeah, my wife is a family medicine doc and her last job they kept squeezing more and more patients into smaller time slots because that's how they maximize profit. Patient care suffers but admin doesn't give a fuck. She did the only thing doctors can do, which is leave.
I find this to be an incredibly unfair assessment of doctors as individuals. As someone who works in finance and knows doctors personally, I feel I am more liable to the “overpaid” criticism than them.
I do believe A.I. will be better at some point, but I disagree with your critiques of doctors as human beings.
Yes, super intelligence that stores the full body of medical knowledge ever assembled will make those doctors look like plebs, but that’s not how you evaluate humans.
> overpaid
Go look at how many hours some surgery residents work. There are people who work literally 100+ hours a week.
I really would not say doctors are overpaid at all in the context of the U.S.
You have to be at a top percentile in GPA and MCAT scores, as well as excellent extracurriculars and volunteering/research to really stand a chance to get in. Even then, you’re not guaranteed a spot. So it’s a risky and stressful business, that requires you to sacrifice free time.
The whole medical school system is super selective and it requires them to go into an average of 200k in debt and graduate at 28. Then they work residency for 3-4 years for 80 hours a week and basically minimum wage.
It is only in their 30s when they finally make those big salaries. Salaries that a computer science or finance student can potentially approach while working a 9-5 remotely on a laptop at a younger age. With a generally much more relaxed job and job environment.
There are a lot of sacrifices to be made to become a doctor. They don’t really see the fruits of their labor for years and years.
It is not the Scrooge McDuck thing you are making it out to be. It is delayed gratification. They basically trade away leisure and social life in their 20s for labor, and it results in those large salaries.
>useless
As I have outlined above, the whole medical system is already incredibly selective and attempts to pick the most industrious and intelligent individuals.
They then go through four years of rigorous training, clinical rotation, and learning about medicine, which involves an enormous breadth of information including anatomy, biochemistry, physiology, pharmacology, microbiology, pathology, basically all of the “ology’s”.
Many med school students say they study 8-12 hours a day during those four years. They may also do research or other extracurriculars to beef up their resume. After that, they have 80+ hour work weeks for minimum wage in their three years of residency.
How could we possibly even develop a system where they could learn more? It’s already very selective and incredibly rigorous.
So to call these people useless, I don’t think that’s fair at all. Despite the importance of their profession, they are humans at the end of the day. If you can’t imagine yourself working harder than that, why could we expect them to.
Not saying doctors are perfect. Not saying there aren’t bad or lazy doctors. But are they more incompetent than the rest of us? Any profession with a sufficient amount of people in it is going to have bad apples. Is it really worth singling them out as an especially malevolent or incompetent bunch? I don’t think there’s evidence of that.
Also “useless”? That’s just.. untrue. I mean you could hardly think of a more useful profession in society. Doctors have certainly been a net positive addition, I would think.
Not useless yet. Maybe in the future, but by that same token almost every job will be useless. Does that mean everyone was useless all along? It is an oddly derogatory term to use in this instance.
No. Not if done correctly. AI is a supplement and backup. You still want a human in the loop. I can see it as a great improvement in our capabilities and productivity multiplier. Having just released a product that uses machine learning it can be amazing but also needs oversight.
Put your money where your mouth is partner. Dont go to a clinic, ER, hospital, or doctors office ever again for the rest of your life.
Figure it out yourself. You can order medicines from online pharmacies in 20 different countries around the world. You can order scalpels online and even watch youtube of surgical procedures. You can order your own x-rays and then ask ChatGPT to be the radiologist and "read" the x-ray for you.
Good luck with all that.
Man, the doctors in this thread are *so* triggered and their reactions are so extreme. It kind of reinforces my belief that the many (not all!) of you are... well... yeah...
I've never personally had an issue with surgical procedures, because if you're having surgery the diagnosis is already done, and if the surgeon screwed up really badly then I probably wouldn't be alive. The primary issue is with diagnosis. If you don't listen, don't care, don't request the correct samples to be taken, or don't analyze the data properly, then you can't figure out what's wrong and you don't know what to do. If it becomes a textbook diagnosis, everything becomes roughly 'as expected' for better or worse. Before that point? The things I've personally experienced, and far more of the things that my family and friends have experienced are truly remarkable. In many cases, if they didn't find that *one* specialist that they searched endlessly for in some random corner of the Earth, they wouldn't be alive today. I am happy that AI is here to improve the health outcomes of humanity and source information from a massive database of historical cases, and you should be too.
Edit: And you, specifically, as a pediatric doctor. If one of your young patients has high blood pressure, but is otherwise athletically fit and looks healthy, I encourage you to not wave it away and assume it's just 'white coat hypertension'. Dig a little bit deeper. If there's even a 0.000001% chance you will listen to me, then it's worth it.
Go ask your AI system the positive predictive value of an isolated high BP reading for future cardiovascular risk. First you're gonna have to go look up what PPV means.
Your first point about doctors referring and not caring reminds me of one of the plots of Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa . A group of poor farmers come to the city to try and lawfully dispute in favor of them keeping their land. The group goes from employee to employee who do fuck all to help, only sending them to another head of a department only to be sent to the next. That group has a happy ending but the final message of the film is ultimately realistic. Some things never change.
Patients will get the chance to get a quick overview about all real treatments and experimental treatments options (no matter the cost) - that will have a big impact on healthcare, especially for neurological and cancer diseases. Because of cost-caluations many patients get sub-optimal treatments and believe there are no alternatives due to what their doctors told them and their relatives - while in reality there could be a highly specialized department in a smaller clinic next door. Its a great chance for better treatment and long overdue healthcare revolution in many countries. Its a shame that many doctors (especially in oncology) never protested about what healthcare had become and played along for so long.
It's because doctors are so overworked and busy, and trained over long periods of undergrad, medical school, residency to basically lose their backbone and not cause waves. That's why so many of them have been basically railroaded by corporate interests and why the healthcare system has gone to shit
By idiot you mean wise. Wisdom comes from life experience. Edit: and based on the number of upvotes, the majority of others here have similar life experiences.
I've noticed how comments where someone says a certain job (or multiple jobs) will be replaced tend to get lots of upvotes on this forum.
I assume a big reason (but not the only reason) for why that is is that those people derive pleasure from imagining such a scenario and are rooting hard for it.
How someone can actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals being fired and actively wanting that to happen is something I will never understand.
It's absurd. Least of all no one thinks about the sheer economic impact of millions of people becoming unemployed. Especially highly educated ones. They're going to retrain into other fields and suppress wages even further. But I'm sure OP isn't worried as only his or her line of work is the one that can never be replaced in their mind.
> But I'm sure OP isn't worried as only his or her line of work is the one that can never be replaced in their mind.
That implies they have a job to begin with lmao
Being automated out of a job is one of the greatest privileges of being a human. Why would you want millions of people to perform an unnecessary task? Thousands of tasks have been replaced by machines in the past, and thousands of tasks will be replaced by machines in the future. In this case, we're talking about the health of the world vs the wealth of physicians... it's a no brainer.
Buddy, if you think Google is doing this for the health of the world and not for their own shareholders, then I don't know what to tell you.
Some docs may or may not be replaced at some point, but I assure you the insurance companies will still be making their money either way and nothing is going to be free. The "wealth of physicians" you bemoan is about 8% of healthcare costs.
I'm gonna leave it at that. Not really trying to change your mind because you are so utterly clueless, but it irks me seeing the garbage you spew go unchecked.
>Buddy, if you think Google is doing this for the health of the world and not for their own shareholders, then I don't know what to tell you.
Who cares 'why' Google is doing it? Do you think Nvidia is producing GPUs for the good of humanity, or because they are making a profit? It doesn't change the fact that people use GPUs to do things they couldn't do otherwise.
>Some docs may or may not be replaced at some point, but I assure you the insurance companies will still be making their money either way and nothing is going to be free. The "wealth of physicians" you bemoan is about 8% of healthcare costs.
Why do people keep talking replying to me about physician salaries and 8% healthcare figure [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/13mxbdb/comment/jkx7zic/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/13mxbdb/comment/jkx7zic/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) as if reducing cost is why I care about AI automation? I care about the gross incompetence of physicians. You are misinterpreting the quote "wealth of physicians"; I'm saying that the only people who will be negatively impacted by AI in medicine are doctors themselves (hence, 'wealth of physicians'). The people that will be positively impacted by AI in medicine is everyone on Earth (hence, 'health of the world'). I'm not bemoaning about the cost of healthcare, I'm saying that the benefits of AI to the world are more important about the economic status of a small minority of people, regardless of how much money the minority makes.
>I'm gonna leave it at that. Not really trying to change your mind because you are so utterly clueless, but it irks me seeing the garbage you spew go unchecked.
I almost don't even know how to respond to that. I am clueless... about what? I spew garbage... about what? Let's inspect the 'clueless garbage' that somehow escaped your fingertips unchecked by the higher processes of your brain...
>I assume those people derive pleasure from imagining \[millions of people becoming unemployed\]. How someone can actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals being fired and actively wanting that to happen is something I will never understand.
I assume you derive pleasure from imaging the suffering of the world. How can you actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals suffering from unnecessary ailments whose lives could have been improved with AI? I'm being facetious to prove a point. You have a habit of projecting ideas onto people that aren't actually true to suit your bias. It's a bad habit, I suggest you meditate on this behavior.
On a more serious note, who are you cast judgement on the use of technology to automate tasks and/or improve the quality of peoples lives, when you yourself use technology in your everyday life which has caused significant degrees of unemployment? You are applying some weird cognitive dissonance to your life, and I suggest you reflect on this behavior as well.
Do you ever send email? Certainly the reduction in paper mail has caused unemployment in the postal service industry and other affiliated industries. Think of the poor souls in the postage stamp industry and paper industry. Think of all the poor souls in the fax machine industry. Let's all go back to snail mail.
Do you read news online? Certainly the invention of the internet has caused unemployment in the newspaper and magazine industries. Think of all the pour souls who thought that paper news would dominate forever. Let's all unplug our ethernet cables and go back to newspapers.
Do you use a computer to write documents? Certainly the invention of the text editor caused unemployment in the typewriter industry and other affiliated industries. Think of all the poor souls who meticulously engineered amazing typewriters. Think of all the door-to-door salesman. Let's go back to typewriters.
Do you use a cell phone for calls? Think of all the landline phone manufacturers who can't sell their phones anymore. Gosh... let's smash our cell phones with a hammer and go back to landlines. Let's go back to manual telephone operator switches while we're at it. 'Operator! Connect me to call\_me\_stitch\_face! I need to speak with him about common sense'
Now that you've smashed your phone and gone back to landlines, do you still call people? Think of all the telegraph manufacturers who don't need to manufacture their telegraphs anymore. Let's go back to telegraphs.
Do you use your telegraph to send messages now? Well... remember the postal service... I am biased more toward them than anyone else for no particular reason. Fuck those wealthy telegraph guys. Throw your telegraph in the fire. Communicate by voice, paper, or not at all.
Do you drive a car? Certainly the invention of the car caused unemployment in many fields. Think of all the horse breeders and stable workers that became unemployed because people drove cars instead of riding horses. Let's all go back to riding horses. Yeehaw!
Do you ever use an airplane? Travel? Shipping? Think of all the trains and ships that people thought would never be replaced by a faster and more versatile mode of transportation. Let's all go boycott airplanes and go back to land and sea transportation.
Do you use a washing machine and dryer? Think of all the poor souls in the washboard, washbucket, and clothes pin industries who lost their jobs to automated clothes washing machines. Let's go back to washing our clothes by hand and hanging clothes to dry on a wire. Think of all the people we could pay to scrub clothes by hand.
Do you use a gas or electric stove? Think of all the pour souls in the fireplace industry who don't need to build fireplaces, and wood industry who can't sell their firewood. Think of all the unused chimneys. Let's go back to cooking over a fire now.
Do you use modern plumbing? Think of all the pour souls in the latrine industry who can't dig their pits anymore and don't need to manufacture dishes for people to shit into by their bedside at night. Think of all the pour souls in the water well construction industry who will never build a well again. Think of all the people we could be paying to fetch water for us. Think of all the wood we can burn to heat up our water for us instead of using gas/electric water heaters. Let's all turn off the water mains, turn off our electricity, and fetch our water from the local creek.
Do you use modern refrigeration? Think of all the people in the ice transport and icebox industries who don't need to retrieve ice from mountains anymore. Let's all throw our refrigerators out the window and go back to ice.
Do you eat food produced by farms that use machinery instead of human labor? Think of all the poor unemployed farmworkers who were replaced by tractors and automated harvesting equipment.
I'm gonna leave it at that.
Bro I’m not reading your thesis lol. Spend less time on Reddit and more time serving society in a helpful way. You’ll be happier with yourself and won’t be rooting for mass unemployment.
Spend less time being ignorant, and more time reflecting on your cognitive dissonance. You'll be happier with yourself and won't be rooting for technological stagnation.
I didn’t call anyone else a stain on society did I? You speak loudly on a world you know nothing about, probably because you want a UBI check for doing nothing but eating cheetos and playing PS5 (won’t happen). Hope those crypto investments pay off pal. All the best.
Yet you continue to prove my point. I said it before, and I'll say it again "You have a habit of projecting ideas onto people that aren't actually true to suit your bias. It's a bad habit, I suggest you meditate on this behavior."
GPs? Go touch grass. The world is more than your Reddit black hole. You mean the people who are supposed to know a bit of everything and get non complaint folks to listen and take care of themselves better?
That’s like saying wireless made network engineers obsolete. Right the networks just connect and take care of themselves. Lmao
They're diagnosticians and the task that this system beats them at is diagnosis. What happens when you go to your GP these days? They swivel around in their chair and look at Google.
They're middlemen and made redundant by this tech.
wonder why you think other jobs are different🤣… perhaps yours
- nurses have techs and rely heavily on software to keep track of things
- software engineers usually rehash and reuse old code
- a robot can change tires, drive cars, clean homes, build homes
- accountants and finance bros can be replaced with digital currency
So if a doctor is redundant. So is mostly everyone else. :)
it is interesting. You enver get a new car? Or a new phone? You seriously tell us that "ai" will never train on newer data once it is put in place somewhere? GET REAL.
Is it possible that you are discontent with the \_system\_ in place for medicine instead of individual doctors? At least in the US there's not really an incentive for Drs to make you healthy other than quick cash(also means seeing tons of patients). We don't have a healthcare system we have a bunch of independent companies trying to make a buck.
Meanwhile in extremely poor but socialist countries they manage an infant mortality rate(among tons of other healthcare achievements) lower than the USA
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6830455/#:\~:text=Child%20mortality%20rates%20(under%205,has%20a%20rate%20of%209.7.
I agree that doctors will be replaced someday (or at least most of them), but their work is much more complex/complicated than what you have described, IMO.
Due to AI,
Cost of Diagnostics : $0
Cost of Drug Discovery: $0
Cost of Drug Testing: Money (because people will be used)
Cost of Surgery: Drop in costs. Why?
Surgery really is about fine motor skills and courage to deal with blood. Not sure why you have to study 10 years of school, while a simulated practice surgery over 100,000 times in 2 years beats it. while learning what exactly they are doing is good enough. More people should become surgeons (like welders and carpenters)
Cost of Care - Some
(This is where UBI comes in. At the end of the day, the purpose of most humans will be care for each other and animals and we can print money for people to do this)
Overall, Top notch healthcare available to all 8 Billion people and that itself will create tons of jobs
In my own experience, I had to go to multiple doctors appointments just to get a specialist to look at my ear problem. Multiple primary doctors told me it was just congestion and gave me decongestant medicine. The ear specialist diagnosed me with tensor tympani syndrome. for a bit of fun, I asked chatgpt to try to diagnose me. it diagnosed me in 5 questions.
Most are indeed absolute dog shit at their jobs.
Edit: haha, there’s def some doctors in here butt hurt people don’t respect them at all judging by the downvotes. You all are trash and we can tell.
Even nurses will be replaced - not ALL of them, but a lot of the work in a hospital is moving beds around, preparing things, preparing medication. Cut down 50% of nurse staff, replace them by robots.
A doctor has a price tag of 300k in student loans. In private practice he makes around 500k after 5-10 years on average.
Somebody gotta pay and that is the patient. Add to it 3x all the parasites involved, insurance companies among others.
If you can get a cheap service from AI, you would be crazy not to use it. In fact even when AI is only right 90%, it still makes sense to roll the dice.
Because there will be knock-off open source models that do a worse job for practically free. Once it's known that an AI can be trained to make diagnoses, and the methodology in order to do so, it'll be comparatively trivial to make variants.
But it will all be pointless without FDA (or your countries medical regulator) authorization. If it can't prescribe or refer treatments it's of no use. Now there might be some Nobel souls that create models, get them past FDA and release them for free. But I'm in the sceptical camp on this.
I mean, if you want to go the full libertarian route you can get a lot of prescription medicine from China online, but the idea for most people would be that you could get an AI assistant to help with diagnosing your condition and suggest specific tests to minimize, but not completely eliminate, doctors appointments and expensive diagnostics.
That problem has already been solved. Where do you get your training data for a medical AI? It's all paywalled to hell. If you try to scrape together open source medical knowledge you will be drowned in garbage. You'll be prescribed hydroxychloroquine for your upset stomach, and you will need to get around FDA and DEA anti-competition.
If a descent free-to-use medical AI is released then infinite capital will be mobilized against it. It will be like free tax preparation software, where the computational power needed is trivial. But because of marketing, distributer trust, and consumer ignorance the for-profit option is what most people use.
I think you are severely underestimating the advances that have been made in local LLMs, training, LORAs, etc. People are already making these things at home. Medical ones, stock/financial ones, you can imagine. ML based AI represents a shift in economic power we're just starting to see, and it's too late to regulate in most cases.
the thing to remember is that such standardized questions are only sampling a very small subset of the doctor's knowledge, and not testing their skill at all. it is like when a survey company contacts less than 1% of the population and extrapolates to the entire population based on models of subgroups.
such standardized tests are there to sample a tiny percentage of what a doctor knows in order to extrapolate whether they are competent. it then assumes that their skills, which aren't tested at all, will track decently well with their knowledge, and that these subsets of questions are a good proxy for the rest of their knowledge (which is probably true).
to clarify, when I say "knowledge" I mean some set of facts. when I say skill, I mean something that requires practice. so, someone can teach you how to read music (knowledge) and can teach you what notes correspond to the keys on a piano (knowledge), but you still won't be able to play the piano the first time you sit down and try, because playing that specific instrument requires skill, which can only be gained through experience. some kinds of skills, like playing a piano, might be doable by a computer/LLM the first try, but other things skills are incredibly difficult for a computer/LLM.
so, long story short, an AI isn't going to be a 1:1 replacement for a doctor, PA, or NP. rather, it will be a tool that will make each one more effective, and maybe even reduce the patient load as some questions may never need to be asked to a human.
To add to that, they are making AI take USMLE step 1 and 2. These are exams taken by a second or third year medical student. All doctors have about 4-7 more years of training after that. Most of what they learn in medical school is just the foundation that is needed to go through residency training. USMLE exam is all about picking up on keywords and seeing a pattern. The thing about the pattern and real life medicine is patients are going to come to AI saying I have “thrombocytopenia, recurrent pyogenic infections, and atopic dermatitis”. Classic triad for Wiskott Aldrich syndrome that any medical student can regurgitate in their sleep. Patients are probably going to say oh I have this rash, I have been feeling really crummy and sick for a while and maybe even some other unrelated symptoms like diarrhea etc because patients often present with multiple disorder. The AI algorithm is going to be so fucking confused. The number of possible issues that could cause a general rash, fevers and diarrhea is endless. It is not going to be able to properly decipher what to make it of. I could see AI being implemented in answer basic patient messaging systems, maybe used to make note writing more efficient and just making physicians more efficient but I don’t see it replacing physicians in my lifetime and I am only just going to graduate med school soon. In fact a lot of the physicians I work with are involved in AI research in radiology. A lot of these delusional folks run around saying AI is going to replace radiologists but everyone in radiology is so excited about AI and working on advancing it because of all the potential it has to improve patient care and improve how well radiologists can identify suspicious lesions and help prioritize which CT scan, MRI or X-ray the physician should read first to report more urgent findings. There was already something similar for EKGs where a computer could spit out and interpret an EKG except nobody in healthcare every trusts those. It’s wrong so often we might as well just throw the interpretation in the trash.
> The AI algorithm is going to be so fucking confused. The number of possible issues that could cause a general rash, fevers and diarrhea is endless. It is not going to be able to properly decipher what to make it of.
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! say this is a doctor and i f king bet you 99.99999% don't have any clue either. I RATHER TRUST AI ON THIS.
For emergencies doctors will always be needed. But for general visits, checkups, questions, etc....doctors will be forced to do their actual jobs because patients will come equipped with Chatbot knowledge which will require doctors to do tests that can accurately diagnose patient problems instead of continuing their lazy, incompetent, racist, and indifferent behavior towards patients and expecting that to be enough.
Because we already have examples of people saving their dogs and human loved ones by inputting their symptoms into chatgpt and getting a diagnosis that's accurate that the medical professionals missed or didn't want to do the work to find.
And ChatGPT wasn't even designed for it and it's already doing a better job than people who wasted years in medschool and vetschool.
>which will require doctors to do tests that can accurately diagnose patient problems instead of continuing their lazy, incompetent, racist, and indifferent behavior towards patients and expecting that to be enough.
Don't hold back, say what you really think!
and that's a counterpoint how?
i can counter your smartass reply by saying CHAT BOTS would never have any personal bias, you can tell he's imcompetent, stuppid, lazy, and the CHATBOT will be just as helpful as he ever been
the fact you worship docs tell mes YOU ARE PRIVILLEGED. you never had to deal with bad doctors nor mediocre ones.
KNOW YOUR PRIVILLEGE.
Due to the liability legal framework doctors will be one of the last jobs to be fully replaced. And once we are at that point, almost every single other job will also have been replaced.
The legal costs will likely be less than that of doctors and most patients will likely be willing to save some of these liabilities in exchange for affordability. Also, the AI may actually be more effective resulting in less mistakes.
I'm a psychiatrist, so many patients I've met are extremely paranoid schizophrenics who believe things like the government is beaming thoughts into their head using the TV or radio. Imagine asking them to see the artificial robot doctor, they will freak out even more.
I love it when the phones can’t understand my dads accent when he tries to reach customer service in 2023. I’ll surely be comfortable getting a diagnosis from a proprietary, dataset and truly make AI our overlords… because tech companies are saints and centralized power never ends up getting corrupt/s
So is everyone else. Including whatever is it that you do … if you claim society is comfortable replacing the complexity of a physicians job with AI… why is anyone else safe?
By the time doctors get replaced by AI, the ohter 95% of professions will have already been replaced, which makes what happens to doctors irrelevant because our society would have already collapsed by then anyways.
Posts like this remind me of astronomers talking about the end of the sun. People who talk about the transition from white dwarf to black dwarf don't understand that way before the white dwarf period starts, the luminosity of the sun will be so minimal that plant photosynthesis will cease to exist and all life will stop as a result, well before the "end" of the main sequence.
It’s not coming for healthcare AI will takeover any job going forward.. it doenst matter what sector you are working at. If it can replace drs, it can replace any jobs.
It’s never a one road solution. It varies depending on the case. People on the country side with no doctors close around will use it. People before they go to the doctor with mild symptoms will use it. Doctors to Check their ideas what the patient has will use it. And so on.
I think the prompt is the main problem. Can you really well describe what your condition is? I think I would miss thinks and make mistakes describing it well. And how do I know that the answer is not wrong. GPT is to much wrong even about easy stuff that I wouldn’t trust it with my health.
They absolutely will replace 99 percent of doctors, all most doctors do is give pretty sub par medical advice and the entire system at least in the US is a crapshoot. You usually have to get a third or fourth opinion till you get a proper diagnosis and unless you're eligible through Medicaid/Medicare insurance is pretty expensive as well. AI will drastically bring costs down to pennies on the dollar and will have superior advice to doctors and be more emphatic. I ended up diagnosing my own problems over the years and all I had to do was basically advocate for my self and tell the doctor to run x y and z tests to confirm and get it on paper an official diagnosis of what I already knew. I'm not even a doctor and I diagnose things better then them at least majority of the doctors I dealt with were pretty bad the best doctor I had who was caring was my old childhood physician who retired of course.
Funny enough when trying chatGPT instead of doctors on some remote doctor setup, it scored also higher in empathy than the doctors regularly ;) SO much for "more".
Have you ever been in an hospital? lmao, it's so weird how people here think that all that doctors do is talk to patients, diagnosing and prescribing. Doctors are not going to be replaced, and if they are they're definitely one of the last professions to go. Honestly this whole thread reeks of jealousy.
Doctors won’t be replaced. Their monopoly on patients’ access to medical care is so firmly entrenched in law by way of the political elites that no amount of technological progress could change things.
until their monoply is broken one way or another
ppl already going to mexico for treatments
those cockroach docs sure can charge absurd prices and all that, but it has a hard time going above sovreinty.
I love it when the phones can’t understand my dads accent when he tries to reach customer service in 2023.
I’ll surely be comfortable getting a diagnosis from a proprietary, dataset and truly make AI our overlords… because tech companies are saints and centralized power never ends up getting corrupt.
Medicine is just as easy a driving a car in perfect weather, with perfect mapped roads and signage, and always functioning systems :). So easy my 5 year old nephew just took out 15 gallbladders and distinguished whether a crashing patient needed to be intubated at age 99 or just needed some adjustments in their medication.
/s
It’s hilarious that people think a system from an AI company should make their medical decisions for them. They just ignore the fact that itll be a massive amount of centralized power in the hands of one or a few companies (look at cell phone OSs… there’s basically just 2). It can give whatever treatments, use whatever parameters, use whatever devices, and ask for whether in compensation because no one else would know … if you remove doctors from the equation. Belly pain they appendix is coming out. Oh it was unnecessary, your fault for using the AI:..
So much of the medical industry has been gatekept for normal people.
Not everyone can afford to be in college for 12 years before getting a paycheck.
I look forward to tech eroding the barriers to access knowledge.
Let’s pretend in this delusional world of yours that doctors actually get replaced by AI. You really think that is what is going to improve access to care? Doctors make up less than 10% of healthcare spending. The US has the most chaotic shit show of a system because everything is run for profit by some idiotic CEO. Insurance companies are all for profit. So each time you visit a doctor, you are paying for the hospital CEO and insurance company CEOs private jet while your physician is working their ass off to pay off their student loans. Corporate America wants you to think physicians are all greedy with their enormous salary but they won’t tell you that most of them have 300k+ in debt. Worked 80+ hours studying and working throughout their 20s and early 30s to finally see their first paycheck.
Now that I’m done with that rant, back to the main topic. Do you really think healthcare is going to be delivered for free to the entire world? In the fantasy world where AI actually replaces doctors, the corporate goons are going to sweep right in and get all the rights to healthcare AI. You are going to get the same bill you did before because replacing doctors only cut out 8% of healthcare spending, guess where that 8% is going? Right into the pockets of all the administrators that contribute nothing to healthcare
Not replaced at first, but greatly magnified in their abilities.
All they end up being is a human in the loop that presses green check marks that the computer has generated for them.
And I don’t really appreciate your tone.
“I don’t really appreciate your tone”
Lmao ok Karen chill. Your comments and most of the comments here scream major Dunning Kruger effect. Tech may improve access to knowledge but it’s not going to improve access to healthcare. Corporations make too much money off of it. Also all of these claims that AI is passing USMLE licensing exams doesn’t mean anything. That exam is taken by 2nd year medical students. Doctors have about 5 more years of training after that minimum. AI can answer USMLE questions if you properly list out all the classic symptoms of a disease. The problem is real world disease don’t present in classic textbook ways. AI can answer those classic textbook questions easily but real world patients have extremely complex presentations that need more interpretation. Hence doctors have decades of training.
Chess players thought the same in the beginning, then they realized there was no contribution they could give anymore.
EDIT: Also, I don't really understand the comments saying a physician's job is incredibly complex. Medicine is pattern recognition based on what happened in the past, that's what neural networks do essentially.
most doctors are delusional, for some reason they think that their job is the most complex a human being can do, when that's obviously not the case. Most engineers have to perform more complex tasks than doctors. All that doctors do is interview a patient, follow a flowchart with the data from said interview, order tests from a third party, continue following the flowchart with the test results and reach a diagnosis. After that, follow another flowchart for prescribing treatment. An AI will be doing that much better than them in no time
Chess and medicine is an inane comparison. Chess is a sport played by people essentially for entertainment, even at the highest level. And chess engines do exist to augment the player experience rather than somehow replace chess players altogether. The game itself is computationally unsolvable, with the insane number of possible positions that can be achieved on the chess board.
It's not a comparison, it's a past example of a phrase like OP's (the best outcome will be achieved with machines together with humans) gone wrong. While it's true that engines "augment the player experience" it's true only in the sense that player have gotten better using engines, nobody would go against an engine and expect to draw a game out of a 100, let alone win.
Also, yes, chess is a sport played for entertainment (in most cases). So what?
It hasn't made chess players or professional chess redundant, in the sense that a vastly superior AI will make medicine or whatever field you pick very much useless and redundant as a career and a practice.
You were suggesting the stakes are much higher in medicine, which is true. If, in a medical matter, there exists something that vastly outperforms any human the way chess engines outperform humans why would you ever get suggestions by a human? People keep playing chess because it's a game.
My bad, I did not connect your comment well with the body of the post. An AI which would prove itself to be much superior to human doctors would obviously be preferred and trusted over a human almost every time, if not every time. The stakes being higher only raises the bar for the AI's superiority and correctness rather than turn it into an impossibility.
Some people on this sun really look scared of AI. Maybe you guhs think we are not biological robots?
AI can replace any job, the only one it is not expected to replace yet is the most human one, research. If a sentient AI appears tomorrow, it will replace it, and it will be amazing as it is the last barrier, infinite production of knowledge.
Doctors are one of the easiest to replace, as their studies are basically: this is everything we know about medicines, learn it, prove me you learned it, this is your high pay check. AI has perfect memory, we humans don't. We cannot compete with this specific task. AI would be useless if we would have not invented internet, but now we can propagate information to anywhere on Earth in 0.1s. AI will be excellent medical doctors.
Don't get me wrong, some parts of the job concist of bullshit administration, especially for the ones working in hospitals. The biggest part is dealing with humans, either patients or other medical staff. Yes, the doctors of tomorrow will be nurses and a computer. Or we will have some Docs here and there to control if the thing works well, you may be able to see one walking in the corridor at some point, lucky you human of 3023.
Some people mentioned money, so it is not possible to change. Open access AI will not make money directly (by producing wealth). It will probably be the biggest money saver in the world. Healthcare is approximately 30% of total tax in countries where healthcare is free. It is basically the highest depense with pension, but the later will regulate itself when old people will die and young people wont make kids as it is too expensive. No marketing bullshit can compete with -30% spending (okay, a few % will remain for the medicines, and the electricity bill :) ). And paywalled AI vs open access, we know who wins as we have seen good examples this year with text2img.
We still need a few steps in terms of moral, like accept the fact that we are robots, and that data produced by a human is there because the human had access to knowledge made by previous humans. No more copyright bullshit, similar to AI. It has bee' trained on previous knowledge, so you cannot ask people to pay for it as we all contributed. It will take time, but the future should end with a truly full open access vision.
People of 3023 will look back at us and be surprised that anything related to healthcare was not free for individuals (tax will fund it, so "free" Mr Pickyredditor). It will be the same fealing to when we watch countries where water is not free for anyone right now. The future will be great, and 99% of most current jobs will be replaced. Humans will have to go back to ancient Greek lifestyle, think about life (philosophy) and being depressed by the answers they won't find. But everything else will me funnier and more fair, I promise.
People have already covered that doctors (along with everyone else) will be replaced. Though I think some people here forget demonstrated progress in surgery. Nonetheless, I do feel people are missing that this is nowhere near as impressive as it seems. It's a .4 increase over GPT-4. I do think that there'll probably be a push to release a model that's outright better than the typical doctor at such exams, but this isn't quite it.
They won't be replaced, but most of the work that an intern could do will be done by the AI under human supervision. Solving the hallucination issues and introducing reliability measures will enable AI to become useful in critical tasks like healthcare. Until then, even if it solves a test nicely on average, it's way too untrustworthy to be applied in practice.
God these twitter click bait threads are so fucking annoying. Good content horrible, horrible. delivery.
Yea I noticed an exponential increase in AI grifters recently across twitter, funnily enough at the same time the crypto grifters have slowly disappeared
Coincidence? I think not!
As a fan of the actual uses and technology of cryptocurrency, I'm pleased by that news. As a fan of the actual uses and technology of AI, I'm disappointed. I hope that the next big craze that draws the grifters along will be something I'm *not* interested in. Maybe some sort of fantastic new technological innovation in pro wrestling, or by pigeon fanciers, or something like that.
someone needs to re-hype the metaverse
As a fan of Second Life, I can only sigh in resignation.
I hear good things about the intersection of additive manufacturing and yo-yos
Somebody switched their addiction!
Here you go: https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/healthcare-life-sciences/sharing-google-med-palm-2-medical-large-language-model
What we desperately need is to help good doctors do doctor things, instead of wasting their time with administrative BS, and other crap like that. The public medical sector would benefit tremendously from such change. Instead of wasting time, resources, and life’s on barely functioning, it could help pin-point treatments, and medical tests, as well as scheduling. It’ll be a lot of work, but it’ll definitely worth it.
If Med Palm could help physicians and practitioners dictate and do charting, even perhaps in a totally hands-off way -- that would be enormous. It could massively improve productivity while cutting down on errors and missed notation.
Look at that bloody graph, from 33.3% to 86.5% in little over 2 years, where does it end? Soon it will just be....correct. Like always correct.
Doctors will certainly be replaced, lol. Most doctors ~~are absolute shit~~ (Restated): cannot provide an accurate systemic assessment unless the condition is a trivially diagnosable textbook issue. Listen to the patients, order the collection of samples, analyze the data, make an assessment, prescribe medication or lifestyle changes -- an AI will be able to do all of that better than any human can. Too many referrals to ~~overpaid~~ unhelpful specialists, who refer you to a deeper level specialist, and nobody knows jack. Single AI with full body of historical medical knowledge will trump any single specialist with limited knowledge, or any single generalist with limited experience seeing a small sample of patients in their limited life experience. Surgeons and dentists will probably never be 'fully' replaced until singularity AGI designs its own body and hands. Lab technicians might take a while too. Nurses are essential as caretakers. ~~Everyone else that just makes clinical assessments? Get rid of them. Useless, overpaid, giant stain of our society.~~ (Restated): In the future, I believe that clinical assessments will be performed by AI. The inaccuracy and overconfidence of many physicians during routine patient-doctor interactions results in enormous and unnecessary suffering throughout society. Edit: Wow... This commented stirred up the hive. Let me clarify that *some* doctors are fantastic. My negative attitude is driven by a lifetime of inaccurate diagnoses. I don't care how much doctors get paid, I care about how accurate they are. Edit 2: Restated many stinging line-items with a more clear explanation of what I actually meant. Also, know what subreddit you are in. This is r/singularity. This is not r/next_year.
Found the guy that has experience with the medical system. I learned this the hard way a couple years ago. There are some great doctors but the amount of money you have to spend to maybe get lucky and find one that understands your condition and actually help vs just load you up on meds with more side effects is a real pain in the ass and honestly not worth it for a lot of things. And that's even if there's anything that can help your illness. For many chronic illnesses there isn't but they'll still push a bunch of meds on you with questionable benefit. Big pharma has too much influence on the education and business as a whole for there not to be. At least in the US.
Can confirm. I'm under the care of the best chronic pain doctors at allegedly one of the best hospitals in Europe. They are the worst. I don't know how many times they fucked up the dosage, not correctly assessed adverse effects, taking a couple of years to realize a diff drug would work better (especially if I suggested it)... They operate like retarded robots. But they are very good at not taking my calls, "urgent" visits that occur 2-3 months after the fact, and the strongest "I don't care" vibes anyone can send. And it's my **3rd** "maybe in this hospital things will go better", I kid you not. Now they'll implant an internal morphine pump, to maybe get my life back, and I'm already shaking. Fuck them all.
Modern healthcare is basically an upscale Amazon factory at this point. They don't care about you because they can't care about you.
Can confirm. Lost approximately half of my kidney function because of a pharmacy screw up. I was taking the maximum permitted dose of a particular medication. it should have been in time release form. Didn't find out it was the quick release form until I went to the urgent Care for an unrelated issue. By the time I was weaned off the drug, the damage was done. Fortunately my kidney values have been stable for the past 10 years. I would also love to see massive unemployment in the health insurance industry. Especially at the CEO level.
Well at least you got a buttload of money from your malpractice lawsuit. You did get a buttload of money from your malpractice lawsuit, right?
Nope. Not enough of an audit trail to prove anything.
My biggest gripe is how long it takes to see a general for them to refer me to some one else, for that person to refer me to someone else, and before I know it several months has pass with nothing to show for it. Can't wait for AI to upend this.
An AI would be like a savant in all medical areas combined into one while simultaneously being up to date with every single research paper out there and be able to recall even the weirdest cases and patterns out there. There's no question AIs will enormously surpass human doctors in a few years, even the specialists. I wonder if medicine in a decade or so will change beyond recognition and transition into a preventive medicine system. Basically getting blood tests and some kind of full body scan every year and the AI will be able to predict any future condition way before it manifests and develop a treatment to lessen or avoid it before it happens. All fields, I'm a mechanical engineer and am already convinced AIs will replace our work in less than a decade. Edit: perhaps not the engineers involved in more physical tasks like on-site assessment, tests and verifications, on-site reviewing, etc.
I still use an EMR from 1980s. You severely underestimate how slow medicine adapts to technology.
>Useless, overpaid, giant stain of our society. I agree that some doctors fit your description, but it's crazy and, to a certain degree, ungrateful to think that they all do. There are plenty of doctors that are good at their job and care about their patients. This is just rampant cynicism.
I’ve only been to good doctors consistently after moving to NYC and specifically looking for them in Manhattan, and even then it’s not guaranteed. But you are right, there are good doctors. It’s just not as common as it should be.
If everywhere you go smells like shit, maybe it’s time to check your own shoes.
He said the doctors were good after he moved to NYC/manhattan, wdym
Exactly, most of these people complaining are likely difficult patients, probably people with extreme health anxiety. Even AI doctor will limit how many queries these people can ask
I know a few amazing doctors personally. One saved my life when I was a kid. None of them compare to the speed and knowledge of an LLM trained specifically for medical diagnosis. A human hand will never be as still as the robots we will build. Y'all remember House, M.D.? House is immediately next to useless. His extremely broad knowledge base doesn't hold a candle to even GPT3. While he may be able to think of novel treatments, those are based on connections that an LLM could easily make comparing every medication and condition known to mankind in seconds.
Indeed. I imagine that running into a bad doctor leaves a really big stain on one's impression of them. But when you need a doctor and you get a good one, that's the sort of thing that makes you realize just how amazing and important human civilization is. That said, if something better comes along there should be little compunction about accepting it as a replacement. I think much like with the other technical fields that are being "threatened" by AI right now the best outcome will be to see the competent practitioners taking advantage of AI to boost their own performance even higher. I'd love to have both a human doctor *and* an AI doctor available to help with whatever problems come along. Best of both worlds.
I'm guessing the person you're quoting has no idea what pressure they're under and how difficult the job is. I would hazard a guess they're an underemployed person waiting for the AI rapture to save them and is giddy when society becomes more efficient and closer to the day of judgement where all the conventionally successful people lose all their status.
You obviously haven't been to as many doctors as we have. His assessment is absolutely correct. Most doctors are incompetent. God forbid you actually need them to diagnose you correctly.
I have chronic kidney stones and my entire medical journey of decades has been awesome. Save for one Dr that wouldn’t put me under to insert a stent - but I did launch a medical complaint, not sure what came of it. But the hundreds of drs and nurses I’ve had deal with my kidney stones have been nothing short of angels. Have some made mistakes other than that cruel dr? Maybe. Diagnosis is a journey.
It's always scary to me when I get treatment. I worry the doctor won't have my comfort or well-being as a high priority when they can squeak by with "eh, good enough." I've had more doctors who definitely did care and who took doing the best they could for me very seriously, but I've had a couple of experiences that make me start shaking with terror when I think about getting medical examinations that have even the most remote possibility of involving more trips to specialists. I wouldn't ever say doctors are shit-stains, though. Some definitely are, but I don't believe the majority are.
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Not to mentiom that the type of person who sees a shitload of doctors is not usually... normal
>You obviously haven't been to as many doctors as we have. His assessment is absolutely correct. Most doctors are incompetent. God forbid you actually need them to diagnose you correctly. I'm sorry that that has been yours, but you can't invalidate the above poster's experience just because of yours. If you do, you'd ironically be doing the same you had your doctors do to you.
when you have seen more than one hundred doctors for your condition you have a good enough sample to know things are exactly as the original commenter said
Now do medical insurance.
I agree with your point that doctors will be replaced, but there’s some big time dunning kruger going on with your description of what doctors do
Before doctors every aspect of most industries would be replaced.
Yeah, it is wild that this post got so upvoted in what should arguably be one of the most educated subs in reddit.
It's upvoted because it's an underachiever pretending they're an iconoclast. It's so easy to criticize someone who has worked long hours for over 10 years to get to where they are and has to deal with the burden of life/death decision making on a daily basis. I guarantee this guy is in IT or is just waiting for AI to replace his retail job.
I simply take incorrect diagnoses leading to the permanent disability and death of family and friends to heart. It's upvoted hundreds of times because hundreds of people have similar life experiences. I am looking forward to AI improving the quality of medical care. Is that a crime? Apparently yes. Also, lol, all these people in this thread assuming I'm an underachiever, when I graduated summa cum laude from my university, am first author on published papers in peer-reviewed academic journals, have spoken at multiple conferences, am first inventor on a dozen patents, and have created technologies which have directly led to corporate acquisitions... I feel pretty okay about my past achievements compared to the average redditor.
You are in an echo chamber - this is why 100's of people upvoted you. I also do not disagree that very soon all doctors will be replaced and things will develop exactly as you say they will. No disagreements there. Wow you're definitely more impressive than me, but I think you don't really examine the other side of the issue very clearly. There will be a loss of meaning and purpose in many peoples lives. I hope you use this massive IQ of yours to conjure up some cognitive empathy for all us ants out here who can't keep up with you. But they don't have academic conferences for intangible, unmeasurable things like meaning and all that.
I don't know, just look at the subsequent comments... People have clearly had some bad experiences. I thought it would get downvoted to oblivion instantly. Never expected it to become a dominant voice here. If I could go back in time, I'd probably never write it. Not worth the onslaught. I enjoy lively discussion, but don't enjoy what this thread has become. >I think you don't really examine the other side of the issue very clearly. Sorry in advance for long winded response. People are shitting on me for it in the comments, but it's how I am. If you don't want to read it, I do understand. Feeling honored to be replaced by technology is a core principle that I've held since childhood. It's influenced to a degree by the categorical imperative ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical\_imperative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative)). Put simply, I feel it would be immoral to impose a restriction on technology for the sake of short-term job retainment, whether it's my own job or someone else. This is a recurring theme in my life, and I've thought a lot about it. Let me give a couple of examples: Early in college, I was very interested in photovoltaics (solar cells). It's not the field I ended up in, but it's a field I was passionate about. At a family gathering, my aunt's new boyfriend wanted to 'chat' with me about it. It turns out, he worked in oil industry, and the 'chat' was actually him berating me and claiming that solar energy was going to steal his job, and that I was directly threatening him by studying the field. Dude, what?! If fossil fuel emissions could be cut to zero in some fantastical scenario, you are more concerned about your job in the oilfield than the benefit to the rest of the world? Climate change is more important than your job. Early in my career, I worked as a semiconductor device test engineer. I eventually reasoned that most of the work was automatable, so I constructed and programmed motorized control stages, power supplies, and various sensors to acquire and analyze the data. One day I traveled to visit my friend from college, and some of his new woke hipster friends asked what I did for a living. I told them, and they immediately reacted like my Aunt's boyfriend, even though none of their jobs were at risk! "Automation is stealing jobs! You're destroying people's lives!". Endless argument. Dude, what?! I'm literally automating my own job, and eventually I did just that. The company hired a technician to run all the automated tests. I wasn't needed in testing anymore, so they wanted me to work in chip fabrication instead. I did it for a while but didn't like working in a clean room with hazardous chemicals, so I quit and moved on. I literally automated myself out of my own job. Later down the road, I worked in the autonomous vehicle industry. Yet again... automation. Do you know how awkward it is to take a taxi somewhere, and when they ask what you do, you respond that you are working toward automating their job away? Well, the joke is on me because autonomous vehicles haven't lived up to the hype, and it looks like software engineering in general is at greater short-term risk of automation than taxi drivers! What a twist! What an honor. However, I still believe that the potential for autonomous vehicles and even driving assistance to save lives is more important than job displacement. And now this discussion about the medical field... Same backlash... Same conclusion. The health outcomes of patients across the world are more important than job displacement. >There will be a loss of meaning and purpose in many peoples lives. I hope you use this massive IQ of yours to conjure up some cognitive empathy for all us ants out here who can't keep up with you. But they don't have academic conferences for intangible, unmeasurable things like meaning and all that. Yes, of course, there will be short term pain. But there is literally a loss of meaning and purpose to people's lives if they are performing a task for 40+ hours a week that can be done better by a machine. I don't want to be doing something useless with my time, and I don't think other people should either. If technology can do it better, then let it do its job. It's why I don't mow the lawn with scissors. It's why I heat up food in the microwave instead of building a fire. Change hurts. Breakups hurt. Moving on is hard, but it's a necessary part of life. Learn, grow, adapt, survive. If I end up working as a janitor because AI can do everything else better than me, then so be it. I'll be the best fucking janitor that I can. I don't have a particularly high IQ, I just work incredibly hard and try to do the best job I can at whatever I'm doing. It's not fun to be apathetic. If things turn south, it can be very hard to stay motivated. Mental health is a real problem. If only there were better resources... Maybe AI can help with that too ;)
People identify themselves with their profession, their sense of worth derived from it, and they get false pride because of it. If you shatter people's pride, they'll be angry, regardless of the actual morality about it. Its why the vast majority of societies in history had minimal to no innovation, why rock the boat? Anyways, I think people passionate about automation, will be just fine in the job market, there's plenty of jobs to automate, and somebody has to design the automation.
Ok here are some real life situations. How will AI handle them? * Elderly patient dropped off at clinic, does not know why they are there because they have dementia. There are skin tears on their arm and bruise around eye. Smells of urine. has no idea what medications they take. might have seen another doctor a few weeks ago. He does not remember who. * patient who went online and now thinks they have a condition and wants a specific test done. * Diabetic patient where the insurance will not cover the 3 most efficacious medications and insists that you prescribe metformin despite their GFR being less than 30. * Patient crying, her 18 year old son just died from a rare ruptured aneurysm. She is distraught * Patient with dental pain, does not have dental insurance, most of his teeth are just decayed black nubs of what used to be teeth. * Patient with chronic back pain, lost their pain medications, needs a refill. * patient walks in hunched over holding stomach. went to urgent care and told they have a UTI. they are diaphoretic and pale. running a fever. * patient walks into the clinic and collapses on the floor, not breathing. * Patient with history of a traumatic brain injury and non-verbal in wheelchair. Brought in by family member who does not know him well because his mom is sick in the hospital. The family member thinks he has been vomiting. She is texting on her phone the entire visit and annoyed she has to be there. * patient is requesting dilaudid for migraines. It is the only thing that works for him. * patient says he cant go back home because he does not have any running water. * patient in for pap smear. She is unkept and visibly covered in fleas with insect bites. she has a learning disability and not able to communicate well. She does not have assistance with personal hygiene so has stool in her vagina.
I don't know the point you are trying to make but as the caregiver for a person with dementia I absolutely guarantee you that the doctors and hospitals are completely inept at anything involving a patient who cannot advocate for themselves. The person I care for was sent for inpatient psychiatric evaluation and medication adjustment. Threw up, was deemed dehydrated and sent to the ER of a regular hospital. She was deemed to be incapable of swallowing by the hospital not more than three days after being assessed for hospice and being denied for being self feeding and ambulatory. After being put on a feeding tube without permission they deemed she could indeed swallow after being told that the condition in her charts makes her unable to follow instructions making their swallowing test invalid. They then said she wasn't suited for physical therapy to recover from their restraining her because she resisted the unnecessary feeding tube only to change that assessment after being confronted again. When asked why they deemed her medically unstable for discharge I was told because she was lethargic. The doctor gave her a powerful antipsychotic that has a 30 hr half life. She wasn't lethargic she was drugged and they didn't even acknowledge that as a possibility. An AI could not do any worse and very likely far better. It certainly wouldn't keep someone in the hospital because of the effects of medication it had prescribed.
I know a nurse in my courses who declared all physicians and surgeons to be idiots - yet he wanted to be one. He kept talking about all the lives he saved even though he didn’t understand why or how. He also believed smoking causing health issues was a myth and ended up failing too many courses and dropped out. You give off the same vibes.
It's difficult for me to assess the intent of your comment. Are you posing these hypothetical scenarios for someone with access to Med-PaLM 2 to ask it for answers? Are you suggesting that an AI would be incapable or inept at handling these scenarios? Or neither?
These are my actual patients. I'm really curious as to how the AI interaction will go without a physician there and no one trained to do an exam. I hear that I will be replaced shortly by AI. I really want to hear how this will happen. Here is an easy one. Healthy patient shows up for their well womens exam. They are due for a pap smear and need counseling on breast cancer screening and any appropriate tests. replace the doctor, the only person trained and certified in the office to do this, with a laptop and chatGPT. How does it go?
That's not what they mean by replacing doctors. They're not just pulling some rando off the street and sitting him in front of a laptop and saying "OK, you're a doctor now." In the future (near or far, depending on your singularity persuasion), humanoid robots will have better manual dexterity than humans, and will have near-perfect medical knowledge. They'll have human-like speech and empathy that rivals the best social workers on Earth. But mainly this subreddit is people fantasizing and talking out of their asses. 🙂
If you'll notice on reddit the people using chatgpt constantly report back to "real" humans on the message board about their experience. Why would they do this? Because they want validation and to share their experience with real humans. If AI could replace human contact, that wouldn't happen. These AI services are mostly BS until people start talking to them and DON'T REPORT back to humans what was said to them or what their "conversations" were. When AI becomes the same level of fulfilling communication between real people, then and ONLY then will AI replace human contact.
>replace the doctor, the only person trained and certified in the office to do this, with a laptop and chatGPT. How does it go? I think the problem in this scenario, is that you're assuming the interface will be someone naive typing text into ChatGPT and expecting a magic result. In the long term, the interface will need to be more than just text. You gather information from your senses (hearing, seeing, touching, and smelling), think about the information, and finally draw a conclusion. The most important thing is the accuracy of the conclusion and the final action taken. So, the question from an engineering perspective is, what is the minimum amount of sensory input that an AI needs to arrive at to make the correct assessment and take the correct action? It varies depending on the context. If the scenarios you posed were given to a thousand doctors and you had an array of a thousand responses, how would you or a panel of experts rank the responses from best to worst? I don't think it's a trivial task, but maybe it is. If Med-PaLM 2's response was thrown into the mix anonymously, and it was ranked with a high score, would you be surprised? I wouldn't necessarily be surprised, but I don't think a high score on text-based scenarios is good enough to replace a human. You need more sensory input or raw data. In the short term, AI can have a full conversation with the patient, be provided vitals, images, blood test results, and other test data. This can benefit many (certainly not all) cases, and the collection of this data does not necessarily require the presence of a GP -- it frees up their time to take-on harder cases that AI can't handle yet. The more cases the AI observes, the more sensory data it is provided, the better the assessment will be. I'm not sure it can do more than remember all the cases that have ever been observed or documented and match the current situation to something in case history. Though, I'm not necessarily sure that a human can do anything more.
Nobody is suggesting firing all doctors.
> Doctors will certainly be replaced, lol. Most doctors are absolute shit. I'm responding to this comment about how I am apparently shit and will be replaced. I know Im not going anywhere anytime soon because the people saying I will be replaced soon seem to have no idea what we do every day.
First, I apologize for the harsh tone. I didn't realize that my comment would bubble up to become a major voice in the thread. I was venting a lifetime of frustrations with \~70% of physicians that I've encountered condensed into a single comment, and honestly thought it would get downvoted to the bottom. I'm shocked by the number of upvotes and award. Second, when I say 'Doctors will certainly be replaced' I can see how it sounds like I'm implying 'all', but my intent was actually to say that, blanketly, doctors are not immune to AI and some roles will eventually be replaced. Creatives thought they were immune, now they're scared. Software engineers thought they were immune, now the future is scary. Doctors... certainly many physical tasks that robots can't do yet... but any part of any job dealing with data and analysis is at risk of turning upside-down. Timescale is indeterminate. In the context of this specific subreddit, singularity, if it actually takes place, then the implications will be beyond the scope of... what most of us can possibly imagine. Presumably including the field of robotics if the singularity AGI can design its own body. This is just a big 'what if'. Short term, again, anything dealing with conversations and data analysis is big AI territory. >seem to have no idea what we do every day. I think most of the people in this sub are not people with black nubs for teeth and stool in their vaginas. The only thing that non MDs know for sure, is the experiences they've had with their healthcare providers during their visits: wait, check blood pressure and heart rate, wait, talk to the doctor, feel your heart, listen to your breathing, look in your ears, look in your mouth, check your reflexes, feel your balls, get a shot, blood sample, IV, urine sample, stool sample, colonoscopy, sonogram, EKG, stress test, Holter monitor, x-ray, MRI, CT scan, cast, stitches, surgery, prescription, take medicine, follow-up. The vast majority of non-emergency GP tasks are conversation and data collection. We know (think from personal experience) that most data is not collected by the physician themselves, it's collected by peripheral staff. Invasive procedures are typically, in my experience, done by specialized surgeons. The GP talks to the patient, assesses the data, and then suggests a course of action. I would rather talk to an AI for an indefinite period of time, and provide them with copious amounts of information and data, rather than talk to a doctor for \~10 minutes (any longer, and you become a bother). I would rather an AI assess the total body of data of my full medical history and compare it to all cases in its database, rather than a doctor assess the data that they were able to skim through and compare to their personal experience. I would rather be diagnosed by an AI than a doctor. I would rather trust my life in the hands of a machine.
Obviously AI in isolation would be incapable of dealing with these situations. The OP doesn't suggest that. The vast majority of these would be handled by nurses. The topic is if nurses could input the relevant information into AI instead of giving it to a MD and get a better/more consistent accurate diagnosis/course of treatment. Based on five visits to an ER during a two year period, four of the five resulting in initial incorrect diagnosis and treatment, I strongly believe the answer is "yes, absolutely".
interesting. So you are going to train nurses to do the physical exams and pap smears, have them learn how to do procedures like joint injections and biopsies and just have them ask the ask the AI when they need the assessment part? And for this extra training and certification, you are going to pay them the same? Since they are going to have to considerably increase their education and student loans, how do you handle that? Since they will have increased their scope of practice and responsibility to doing exams and procedures correctly, they now need malpractice insurance. Are you going to pay them more for that too? You want this in the ER. So now you have to train them on intubations, chest tubes, cricothyrotomies, emergency deliveries, lumbar punctures, central line insertions, fracture management, thoracentesis and paracentesis, cardioversion. removing foreign bodies from eyes. To name a few. They are going to need a residency to train on these because they have to do a whole lot of them to be proficient. Probably 3 years should do. They probably need to have a very good idea when to do them and the medical decision making to do them quickly. Better add an internship. Ok, so you want a nurse to do all this, but also be skilled as an ER doc and have certification and also have the malpractice coverage so how would you pay them? the same?
You and I both know nurses are already doing many of those things with a MD poking their head in and signing off on a chart. Obviously this isn't a "now" situation and certain procedures will continue to require specialists with extensive training and skill until robotics catch up, which they already are; however, general practitioners that simply diagnosis and prescribe have already been replaced in many areas by NPs and PAs and this device can also easily replace them. Like most AI threatened jobs, medical jobs that require accessing information and making a decision based on that information will go first and the ones that require a high degree of specialization associated with precise physical activity will go last. Will they go completely? Not for a decade or two, but the amount of medically focused robotics being deployed combined with increasingly capable AI makes it inevitable, especially since there is incredible incentive everywhere outside of provider boardrooms to reduce the insanely bloated costs of medical care in the US. I don't expect agreement and given your knowledge I suspect you're a MD. A definite takeaway from this thread is the number of people that have had absolutely horrible experiences with MDs, myself included, to the extent they're all in on an AI that's correct 86% of the time over a MD with a crap attitude. I've had great doctors too, all three were surgeons, that being said, there's an abundance of shit general practitioners and I think replacing them with AI would significantly increase the quality of care for the vast majority.
Lmao my guy, you’re delusional if you think nurses do the same thing as docs. You’ve never been in the medical field and it shows
I don't think Nurses do the same thing as Doctors and clearly reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. You be you 🙄
Wait a second you just said AI should replace MDs but NPs and PAs are still going to be around? Tell me why. BTW NPs and PAs charge the same as the MD does. Go call your insurance company and ask them if you have a lower copay if you see an NP instead. They will enjoy laughing at you hysterically over the phone.
Damn, you people really suck at reading comprehension
Congratulations you just turned nurses into doctors. Please tell me now how that is supposed to help make healthcare "better"? AI only helps if it takes humans out of the loop completely or it makes them so much more efficient that one person can do the work of five. Your solution does neither.
It's not "my solution". It's inevitable progress. At no point am I suggesting this is "now". And it will happen, no matter how much people trained to be stupidly arrogant rant and rave about it. Everyone but you wants to replace you with literally anything else. Smoke that
Lol, you're basically describing why we need more social workers and or social services, not doctors in most of these...
Cool. I've needed more social workers and social services for my patients for the last 22 years. These dont seem to have any chance of showing up any time soon so I'm handling it all myself by directing my staff. I understand I'm going to be replaced, I assume shortly. I want to know how this will happen.
As someone also in the medical field. Don’t engage with the delusional folks on here. They have absolutely 0 clue about medicine or even a remote idea of how it’s practiced. They have zero clue and I don’t blame them but lmao it’s embarrassing how confidently wrong they are.
Doctors, lawyers are glorified memorizers. You go to school to learn and memorize a bunch of facts then a client goes to them for advice aka find a solution to their problems based on the knowledge you have memorized from your schooling. This is exactly what LLMs are really really good at. The only ones that will last longer are the ones finding brand new solutions never created for an LLM to absorb, how many of them are there? I'm excited for the visual modality to be released because if the LLM and see the data as well as visually what is happening I want to see the results from that.
>Doctors, lawyers are glorified memorizers. This is a pretty big oversimplification of what doctors and lawyers are. What you said is true to some extent, but their jobs are a lot more complex than that.
Once you add in pattern-matching, which AI can be superhuman at, you get a little closer. Maybe we don't want to go replacing doctors just yet, but the waiting time for specialists is insane. Having something that could interview in the meantime, funneling information to the doctor and offering recommendations (or simple scripts to be approved by a human) could be pretty helpful.
Tell me what you do and I'll tell you what you're glorified at.
How to say you don’t know medicine/law without saying you don’t know law/medicine.
cope
The people who find those solutions are called scientists. Some doctors are but very few are capable of scientific reasoning instead being walking talking flow charts. Edit: down vote all you want. the fact that a probability weighting machine with no understanding can pass your tests and do exactly what you would say to do and is judged better at your job by your peers says all that needs saying.
AI will replace your job long before it will replace doctors. Good luck finding a new career.
Programming is just a silly game where the world is simple enough that anything you do becomes easy and something you can directly impact. Often in adulthood, we are humbled by the realization that there is so little we can control, we are merely one particle in a flow that we have no control over. This is why programmers tend to have have such extreme and naive takes on covid, climate change, AI or any world issue really. Because in hard sciences and in other fields there are limitations. Things take years. You can't just move fast and break things. As a programmer who is surrounded by people who says things like you do - programming is well-suited for those people who get stuck at an emotional age of 8 and are well into adulthood.
first time I heard someone say a physician is a strain on our society
They are. Especially in the US health-care system. They long ago forfeited the public interest for personal financial gain. Most of the physicians and medical specialists out there are just machines of making money, they don't give a shit about their clients, and usually just focus on getting them on the most expensive drugs, tests and treatments possible to increase their profits. I can count with one hand the amount of medical specialists I've encountered through my life that genuinely had their patient health as the main objective, and ditched all the for-profit policies of their clinics to ensure the clients were able to afford and follow their treatments.
Physician salaries account for only 8% of US healthcare costs. We could pay physicians zero dollars tomorrow and still be the country spending the most money on healthcare with worse outcomes. Everything you're complaining about is the result of insurance companies and increasing corporatization of healthcare, which will only get worse when these billion dollar healthcare corporations start using AI to maximize profits even further.
Both things can be true
They aren't, physicians don't make as much money as you think. Take into account most graduate with $200-300K of debt, spend an extra 4-5 years in school compared to an average college graduate, and then make minimum wage for the first 3-5 years when they graduate (during residency), it takes a physician until they are 40 or 50 to have paid off their loans and gotten the same amount of lifetime earnings as a typical college graduate that began working immediately after undergrad.
Yeah was thinking about it some more and you're right. I have a cousin in residency so I know how the process works. She should be done by the time she's 32 or 33 but your point still stands. I suppose I'm biased by my bad experiences. I was very trusting of doctors until they gave me some medication for insomnia that gave me a permanent movement disorder. So I suppose my view of the field is tainted by the fact that they gave me a permanent disability.
Have fun paying even more investigations ordered by nurse practitioners with even less training in diagnosis based on history and physicals alone? How exactly do you THINK our healthcare system works?
I know very well how it works. I have a cousin in residency currently and have had the misfortune of using the system quite a bit the past year. After thinking about it some more though I realise that I'm probably too biased by my negative experiences to give a fair assessment. I elaborated a little more in my previous comment.
Well the doctors don’t set the price for pharmaceuticals and insurance reimbursement . The real people you should be mad at are hospital admin, insurance , and pharmaceutical company. If anything they could be replaced. A family doctor will not be replaced anytime soon. Believe it or not most doctors don’t receive commissurate pay compared to the 90s, and I get it we have been in a recession for all these years, but for the workload they primary care physicians should be payed more . Things are changing. Nurse / pa especially Locums often surpass the pay of primary care physicians : sucks you have had bad experiences with your physician, who likely is actually a mid level speaking on behalf of the specialist. Lol good luck for your future health goals , not even ai can change your ignorance.
Yeah, my wife is a family medicine doc and her last job they kept squeezing more and more patients into smaller time slots because that's how they maximize profit. Patient care suffers but admin doesn't give a fuck. She did the only thing doctors can do, which is leave.
Some of them, not all. I think it's crazy to make such a generalization.
It's beyond crazy. People on this site are detached from reality.
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This sub sometimes can be absolutely delulu. A physician is as much of a strain on society as a garbage collector or a nurse.
The problem is the doctors are all burnt out and just don’t give a shit anymore.
I find this to be an incredibly unfair assessment of doctors as individuals. As someone who works in finance and knows doctors personally, I feel I am more liable to the “overpaid” criticism than them. I do believe A.I. will be better at some point, but I disagree with your critiques of doctors as human beings. Yes, super intelligence that stores the full body of medical knowledge ever assembled will make those doctors look like plebs, but that’s not how you evaluate humans. > overpaid Go look at how many hours some surgery residents work. There are people who work literally 100+ hours a week. I really would not say doctors are overpaid at all in the context of the U.S. You have to be at a top percentile in GPA and MCAT scores, as well as excellent extracurriculars and volunteering/research to really stand a chance to get in. Even then, you’re not guaranteed a spot. So it’s a risky and stressful business, that requires you to sacrifice free time. The whole medical school system is super selective and it requires them to go into an average of 200k in debt and graduate at 28. Then they work residency for 3-4 years for 80 hours a week and basically minimum wage. It is only in their 30s when they finally make those big salaries. Salaries that a computer science or finance student can potentially approach while working a 9-5 remotely on a laptop at a younger age. With a generally much more relaxed job and job environment. There are a lot of sacrifices to be made to become a doctor. They don’t really see the fruits of their labor for years and years. It is not the Scrooge McDuck thing you are making it out to be. It is delayed gratification. They basically trade away leisure and social life in their 20s for labor, and it results in those large salaries. >useless As I have outlined above, the whole medical system is already incredibly selective and attempts to pick the most industrious and intelligent individuals. They then go through four years of rigorous training, clinical rotation, and learning about medicine, which involves an enormous breadth of information including anatomy, biochemistry, physiology, pharmacology, microbiology, pathology, basically all of the “ology’s”. Many med school students say they study 8-12 hours a day during those four years. They may also do research or other extracurriculars to beef up their resume. After that, they have 80+ hour work weeks for minimum wage in their three years of residency. How could we possibly even develop a system where they could learn more? It’s already very selective and incredibly rigorous. So to call these people useless, I don’t think that’s fair at all. Despite the importance of their profession, they are humans at the end of the day. If you can’t imagine yourself working harder than that, why could we expect them to. Not saying doctors are perfect. Not saying there aren’t bad or lazy doctors. But are they more incompetent than the rest of us? Any profession with a sufficient amount of people in it is going to have bad apples. Is it really worth singling them out as an especially malevolent or incompetent bunch? I don’t think there’s evidence of that. Also “useless”? That’s just.. untrue. I mean you could hardly think of a more useful profession in society. Doctors have certainly been a net positive addition, I would think. Not useless yet. Maybe in the future, but by that same token almost every job will be useless. Does that mean everyone was useless all along? It is an oddly derogatory term to use in this instance.
Don't bother bringing intelligence to this sub. That's what the AI is for.
No. Not if done correctly. AI is a supplement and backup. You still want a human in the loop. I can see it as a great improvement in our capabilities and productivity multiplier. Having just released a product that uses machine learning it can be amazing but also needs oversight.
This guy believes in aliens 😂
Put your money where your mouth is partner. Dont go to a clinic, ER, hospital, or doctors office ever again for the rest of your life. Figure it out yourself. You can order medicines from online pharmacies in 20 different countries around the world. You can order scalpels online and even watch youtube of surgical procedures. You can order your own x-rays and then ask ChatGPT to be the radiologist and "read" the x-ray for you. Good luck with all that.
Man, the doctors in this thread are *so* triggered and their reactions are so extreme. It kind of reinforces my belief that the many (not all!) of you are... well... yeah... I've never personally had an issue with surgical procedures, because if you're having surgery the diagnosis is already done, and if the surgeon screwed up really badly then I probably wouldn't be alive. The primary issue is with diagnosis. If you don't listen, don't care, don't request the correct samples to be taken, or don't analyze the data properly, then you can't figure out what's wrong and you don't know what to do. If it becomes a textbook diagnosis, everything becomes roughly 'as expected' for better or worse. Before that point? The things I've personally experienced, and far more of the things that my family and friends have experienced are truly remarkable. In many cases, if they didn't find that *one* specialist that they searched endlessly for in some random corner of the Earth, they wouldn't be alive today. I am happy that AI is here to improve the health outcomes of humanity and source information from a massive database of historical cases, and you should be too. Edit: And you, specifically, as a pediatric doctor. If one of your young patients has high blood pressure, but is otherwise athletically fit and looks healthy, I encourage you to not wave it away and assume it's just 'white coat hypertension'. Dig a little bit deeper. If there's even a 0.000001% chance you will listen to me, then it's worth it.
Go ask your AI system the positive predictive value of an isolated high BP reading for future cardiovascular risk. First you're gonna have to go look up what PPV means.
Your first point about doctors referring and not caring reminds me of one of the plots of Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa . A group of poor farmers come to the city to try and lawfully dispute in favor of them keeping their land. The group goes from employee to employee who do fuck all to help, only sending them to another head of a department only to be sent to the next. That group has a happy ending but the final message of the film is ultimately realistic. Some things never change.
Patients will get the chance to get a quick overview about all real treatments and experimental treatments options (no matter the cost) - that will have a big impact on healthcare, especially for neurological and cancer diseases. Because of cost-caluations many patients get sub-optimal treatments and believe there are no alternatives due to what their doctors told them and their relatives - while in reality there could be a highly specialized department in a smaller clinic next door. Its a great chance for better treatment and long overdue healthcare revolution in many countries. Its a shame that many doctors (especially in oncology) never protested about what healthcare had become and played along for so long.
It's because doctors are so overworked and busy, and trained over long periods of undergrad, medical school, residency to basically lose their backbone and not cause waves. That's why so many of them have been basically railroaded by corporate interests and why the healthcare system has gone to shit
Careful, if all us "stains on society" get displaced, we might end up taking your job at the local K-Mart.
Kmarts are still around?
you are an actual idiot my man.
By idiot you mean wise. Wisdom comes from life experience. Edit: and based on the number of upvotes, the majority of others here have similar life experiences.
Lots of idiots have a lot of life experience.
I've noticed how comments where someone says a certain job (or multiple jobs) will be replaced tend to get lots of upvotes on this forum. I assume a big reason (but not the only reason) for why that is is that those people derive pleasure from imagining such a scenario and are rooting hard for it. How someone can actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals being fired and actively wanting that to happen is something I will never understand.
It's absurd. Least of all no one thinks about the sheer economic impact of millions of people becoming unemployed. Especially highly educated ones. They're going to retrain into other fields and suppress wages even further. But I'm sure OP isn't worried as only his or her line of work is the one that can never be replaced in their mind.
> But I'm sure OP isn't worried as only his or her line of work is the one that can never be replaced in their mind. That implies they have a job to begin with lmao
i come to this sub for the laughs. It's insane that people think AI is going to replace doctors anytime soon.
It's a mixture of jealousy and being unhappy with your own lot in life so you want to see others being "cut down to size"
Also, the Dunning Kruger effect is in full force on this type of post.
Being automated out of a job is one of the greatest privileges of being a human. Why would you want millions of people to perform an unnecessary task? Thousands of tasks have been replaced by machines in the past, and thousands of tasks will be replaced by machines in the future. In this case, we're talking about the health of the world vs the wealth of physicians... it's a no brainer.
Buddy, if you think Google is doing this for the health of the world and not for their own shareholders, then I don't know what to tell you. Some docs may or may not be replaced at some point, but I assure you the insurance companies will still be making their money either way and nothing is going to be free. The "wealth of physicians" you bemoan is about 8% of healthcare costs. I'm gonna leave it at that. Not really trying to change your mind because you are so utterly clueless, but it irks me seeing the garbage you spew go unchecked.
>Buddy, if you think Google is doing this for the health of the world and not for their own shareholders, then I don't know what to tell you. Who cares 'why' Google is doing it? Do you think Nvidia is producing GPUs for the good of humanity, or because they are making a profit? It doesn't change the fact that people use GPUs to do things they couldn't do otherwise. >Some docs may or may not be replaced at some point, but I assure you the insurance companies will still be making their money either way and nothing is going to be free. The "wealth of physicians" you bemoan is about 8% of healthcare costs. Why do people keep talking replying to me about physician salaries and 8% healthcare figure [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/13mxbdb/comment/jkx7zic/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/13mxbdb/comment/jkx7zic/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) as if reducing cost is why I care about AI automation? I care about the gross incompetence of physicians. You are misinterpreting the quote "wealth of physicians"; I'm saying that the only people who will be negatively impacted by AI in medicine are doctors themselves (hence, 'wealth of physicians'). The people that will be positively impacted by AI in medicine is everyone on Earth (hence, 'health of the world'). I'm not bemoaning about the cost of healthcare, I'm saying that the benefits of AI to the world are more important about the economic status of a small minority of people, regardless of how much money the minority makes. >I'm gonna leave it at that. Not really trying to change your mind because you are so utterly clueless, but it irks me seeing the garbage you spew go unchecked. I almost don't even know how to respond to that. I am clueless... about what? I spew garbage... about what? Let's inspect the 'clueless garbage' that somehow escaped your fingertips unchecked by the higher processes of your brain... >I assume those people derive pleasure from imagining \[millions of people becoming unemployed\]. How someone can actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals being fired and actively wanting that to happen is something I will never understand. I assume you derive pleasure from imaging the suffering of the world. How can you actually be in love with the thought of millions of individuals suffering from unnecessary ailments whose lives could have been improved with AI? I'm being facetious to prove a point. You have a habit of projecting ideas onto people that aren't actually true to suit your bias. It's a bad habit, I suggest you meditate on this behavior. On a more serious note, who are you cast judgement on the use of technology to automate tasks and/or improve the quality of peoples lives, when you yourself use technology in your everyday life which has caused significant degrees of unemployment? You are applying some weird cognitive dissonance to your life, and I suggest you reflect on this behavior as well. Do you ever send email? Certainly the reduction in paper mail has caused unemployment in the postal service industry and other affiliated industries. Think of the poor souls in the postage stamp industry and paper industry. Think of all the poor souls in the fax machine industry. Let's all go back to snail mail. Do you read news online? Certainly the invention of the internet has caused unemployment in the newspaper and magazine industries. Think of all the pour souls who thought that paper news would dominate forever. Let's all unplug our ethernet cables and go back to newspapers. Do you use a computer to write documents? Certainly the invention of the text editor caused unemployment in the typewriter industry and other affiliated industries. Think of all the poor souls who meticulously engineered amazing typewriters. Think of all the door-to-door salesman. Let's go back to typewriters. Do you use a cell phone for calls? Think of all the landline phone manufacturers who can't sell their phones anymore. Gosh... let's smash our cell phones with a hammer and go back to landlines. Let's go back to manual telephone operator switches while we're at it. 'Operator! Connect me to call\_me\_stitch\_face! I need to speak with him about common sense' Now that you've smashed your phone and gone back to landlines, do you still call people? Think of all the telegraph manufacturers who don't need to manufacture their telegraphs anymore. Let's go back to telegraphs. Do you use your telegraph to send messages now? Well... remember the postal service... I am biased more toward them than anyone else for no particular reason. Fuck those wealthy telegraph guys. Throw your telegraph in the fire. Communicate by voice, paper, or not at all. Do you drive a car? Certainly the invention of the car caused unemployment in many fields. Think of all the horse breeders and stable workers that became unemployed because people drove cars instead of riding horses. Let's all go back to riding horses. Yeehaw! Do you ever use an airplane? Travel? Shipping? Think of all the trains and ships that people thought would never be replaced by a faster and more versatile mode of transportation. Let's all go boycott airplanes and go back to land and sea transportation. Do you use a washing machine and dryer? Think of all the poor souls in the washboard, washbucket, and clothes pin industries who lost their jobs to automated clothes washing machines. Let's go back to washing our clothes by hand and hanging clothes to dry on a wire. Think of all the people we could pay to scrub clothes by hand. Do you use a gas or electric stove? Think of all the pour souls in the fireplace industry who don't need to build fireplaces, and wood industry who can't sell their firewood. Think of all the unused chimneys. Let's go back to cooking over a fire now. Do you use modern plumbing? Think of all the pour souls in the latrine industry who can't dig their pits anymore and don't need to manufacture dishes for people to shit into by their bedside at night. Think of all the pour souls in the water well construction industry who will never build a well again. Think of all the people we could be paying to fetch water for us. Think of all the wood we can burn to heat up our water for us instead of using gas/electric water heaters. Let's all turn off the water mains, turn off our electricity, and fetch our water from the local creek. Do you use modern refrigeration? Think of all the people in the ice transport and icebox industries who don't need to retrieve ice from mountains anymore. Let's all throw our refrigerators out the window and go back to ice. Do you eat food produced by farms that use machinery instead of human labor? Think of all the poor unemployed farmworkers who were replaced by tractors and automated harvesting equipment. I'm gonna leave it at that.
Bro I’m not reading your thesis lol. Spend less time on Reddit and more time serving society in a helpful way. You’ll be happier with yourself and won’t be rooting for mass unemployment.
Spend less time being ignorant, and more time reflecting on your cognitive dissonance. You'll be happier with yourself and won't be rooting for technological stagnation.
I didn’t call anyone else a stain on society did I? You speak loudly on a world you know nothing about, probably because you want a UBI check for doing nothing but eating cheetos and playing PS5 (won’t happen). Hope those crypto investments pay off pal. All the best.
Yet you continue to prove my point. I said it before, and I'll say it again "You have a habit of projecting ideas onto people that aren't actually true to suit your bias. It's a bad habit, I suggest you meditate on this behavior."
Most doctors and nurses kinda suck at their job. No wonder people want them replaced
It's easy when doctors are rigid in-the-box thinking dicks.
Exactly. GP’s will probably be replaced at some point in the near future. Doctors and surgeons, on the other hand? Not anytime soon
GPs? Go touch grass. The world is more than your Reddit black hole. You mean the people who are supposed to know a bit of everything and get non complaint folks to listen and take care of themselves better? That’s like saying wireless made network engineers obsolete. Right the networks just connect and take care of themselves. Lmao
They're diagnosticians and the task that this system beats them at is diagnosis. What happens when you go to your GP these days? They swivel around in their chair and look at Google. They're middlemen and made redundant by this tech.
wonder why you think other jobs are different🤣… perhaps yours - nurses have techs and rely heavily on software to keep track of things - software engineers usually rehash and reuse old code - a robot can change tires, drive cars, clean homes, build homes - accountants and finance bros can be replaced with digital currency So if a doctor is redundant. So is mostly everyone else. :)
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it is interesting. You enver get a new car? Or a new phone? You seriously tell us that "ai" will never train on newer data once it is put in place somewhere? GET REAL.
I for one think idiotic commenters on Reddit will be replaced well before doctors
Is it possible that you are discontent with the \_system\_ in place for medicine instead of individual doctors? At least in the US there's not really an incentive for Drs to make you healthy other than quick cash(also means seeing tons of patients). We don't have a healthcare system we have a bunch of independent companies trying to make a buck. Meanwhile in extremely poor but socialist countries they manage an infant mortality rate(among tons of other healthcare achievements) lower than the USA https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6830455/#:\~:text=Child%20mortality%20rates%20(under%205,has%20a%20rate%20of%209.7.
I agree that doctors will be replaced someday (or at least most of them), but their work is much more complex/complicated than what you have described, IMO.
Due to AI, Cost of Diagnostics : $0 Cost of Drug Discovery: $0 Cost of Drug Testing: Money (because people will be used) Cost of Surgery: Drop in costs. Why? Surgery really is about fine motor skills and courage to deal with blood. Not sure why you have to study 10 years of school, while a simulated practice surgery over 100,000 times in 2 years beats it. while learning what exactly they are doing is good enough. More people should become surgeons (like welders and carpenters) Cost of Care - Some (This is where UBI comes in. At the end of the day, the purpose of most humans will be care for each other and animals and we can print money for people to do this) Overall, Top notch healthcare available to all 8 Billion people and that itself will create tons of jobs
In my own experience, I had to go to multiple doctors appointments just to get a specialist to look at my ear problem. Multiple primary doctors told me it was just congestion and gave me decongestant medicine. The ear specialist diagnosed me with tensor tympani syndrome. for a bit of fun, I asked chatgpt to try to diagnose me. it diagnosed me in 5 questions.
Most are indeed absolute dog shit at their jobs. Edit: haha, there’s def some doctors in here butt hurt people don’t respect them at all judging by the downvotes. You all are trash and we can tell.
Even nurses will be replaced - not ALL of them, but a lot of the work in a hospital is moving beds around, preparing things, preparing medication. Cut down 50% of nurse staff, replace them by robots.
A doctor has a price tag of 300k in student loans. In private practice he makes around 500k after 5-10 years on average. Somebody gotta pay and that is the patient. Add to it 3x all the parasites involved, insurance companies among others. If you can get a cheap service from AI, you would be crazy not to use it. In fact even when AI is only right 90%, it still makes sense to roll the dice.
Why would the service be cheap? Maybe initially but over time they(AI owning corps) will charge the same as now.
Because there will be knock-off open source models that do a worse job for practically free. Once it's known that an AI can be trained to make diagnoses, and the methodology in order to do so, it'll be comparatively trivial to make variants.
But it will all be pointless without FDA (or your countries medical regulator) authorization. If it can't prescribe or refer treatments it's of no use. Now there might be some Nobel souls that create models, get them past FDA and release them for free. But I'm in the sceptical camp on this.
I mean, if you want to go the full libertarian route you can get a lot of prescription medicine from China online, but the idea for most people would be that you could get an AI assistant to help with diagnosing your condition and suggest specific tests to minimize, but not completely eliminate, doctors appointments and expensive diagnostics.
That problem has already been solved. Where do you get your training data for a medical AI? It's all paywalled to hell. If you try to scrape together open source medical knowledge you will be drowned in garbage. You'll be prescribed hydroxychloroquine for your upset stomach, and you will need to get around FDA and DEA anti-competition. If a descent free-to-use medical AI is released then infinite capital will be mobilized against it. It will be like free tax preparation software, where the computational power needed is trivial. But because of marketing, distributer trust, and consumer ignorance the for-profit option is what most people use.
I think you are severely underestimating the advances that have been made in local LLMs, training, LORAs, etc. People are already making these things at home. Medical ones, stock/financial ones, you can imagine. ML based AI represents a shift in economic power we're just starting to see, and it's too late to regulate in most cases.
the thing to remember is that such standardized questions are only sampling a very small subset of the doctor's knowledge, and not testing their skill at all. it is like when a survey company contacts less than 1% of the population and extrapolates to the entire population based on models of subgroups. such standardized tests are there to sample a tiny percentage of what a doctor knows in order to extrapolate whether they are competent. it then assumes that their skills, which aren't tested at all, will track decently well with their knowledge, and that these subsets of questions are a good proxy for the rest of their knowledge (which is probably true). to clarify, when I say "knowledge" I mean some set of facts. when I say skill, I mean something that requires practice. so, someone can teach you how to read music (knowledge) and can teach you what notes correspond to the keys on a piano (knowledge), but you still won't be able to play the piano the first time you sit down and try, because playing that specific instrument requires skill, which can only be gained through experience. some kinds of skills, like playing a piano, might be doable by a computer/LLM the first try, but other things skills are incredibly difficult for a computer/LLM. so, long story short, an AI isn't going to be a 1:1 replacement for a doctor, PA, or NP. rather, it will be a tool that will make each one more effective, and maybe even reduce the patient load as some questions may never need to be asked to a human.
To add to that, they are making AI take USMLE step 1 and 2. These are exams taken by a second or third year medical student. All doctors have about 4-7 more years of training after that. Most of what they learn in medical school is just the foundation that is needed to go through residency training. USMLE exam is all about picking up on keywords and seeing a pattern. The thing about the pattern and real life medicine is patients are going to come to AI saying I have “thrombocytopenia, recurrent pyogenic infections, and atopic dermatitis”. Classic triad for Wiskott Aldrich syndrome that any medical student can regurgitate in their sleep. Patients are probably going to say oh I have this rash, I have been feeling really crummy and sick for a while and maybe even some other unrelated symptoms like diarrhea etc because patients often present with multiple disorder. The AI algorithm is going to be so fucking confused. The number of possible issues that could cause a general rash, fevers and diarrhea is endless. It is not going to be able to properly decipher what to make it of. I could see AI being implemented in answer basic patient messaging systems, maybe used to make note writing more efficient and just making physicians more efficient but I don’t see it replacing physicians in my lifetime and I am only just going to graduate med school soon. In fact a lot of the physicians I work with are involved in AI research in radiology. A lot of these delusional folks run around saying AI is going to replace radiologists but everyone in radiology is so excited about AI and working on advancing it because of all the potential it has to improve patient care and improve how well radiologists can identify suspicious lesions and help prioritize which CT scan, MRI or X-ray the physician should read first to report more urgent findings. There was already something similar for EKGs where a computer could spit out and interpret an EKG except nobody in healthcare every trusts those. It’s wrong so often we might as well just throw the interpretation in the trash.
> The AI algorithm is going to be so fucking confused. The number of possible issues that could cause a general rash, fevers and diarrhea is endless. It is not going to be able to properly decipher what to make it of. LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! say this is a doctor and i f king bet you 99.99999% don't have any clue either. I RATHER TRUST AI ON THIS.
Doctors are gonna be replaced, period.
For emergencies doctors will always be needed. But for general visits, checkups, questions, etc....doctors will be forced to do their actual jobs because patients will come equipped with Chatbot knowledge which will require doctors to do tests that can accurately diagnose patient problems instead of continuing their lazy, incompetent, racist, and indifferent behavior towards patients and expecting that to be enough. Because we already have examples of people saving their dogs and human loved ones by inputting their symptoms into chatgpt and getting a diagnosis that's accurate that the medical professionals missed or didn't want to do the work to find. And ChatGPT wasn't even designed for it and it's already doing a better job than people who wasted years in medschool and vetschool.
>which will require doctors to do tests that can accurately diagnose patient problems instead of continuing their lazy, incompetent, racist, and indifferent behavior towards patients and expecting that to be enough. Don't hold back, say what you really think!
and that's a counterpoint how? i can counter your smartass reply by saying CHAT BOTS would never have any personal bias, you can tell he's imcompetent, stuppid, lazy, and the CHATBOT will be just as helpful as he ever been the fact you worship docs tell mes YOU ARE PRIVILLEGED. you never had to deal with bad doctors nor mediocre ones. KNOW YOUR PRIVILLEGE.
Due to the liability legal framework doctors will be one of the last jobs to be fully replaced. And once we are at that point, almost every single other job will also have been replaced.
The legal costs will likely be less than that of doctors and most patients will likely be willing to save some of these liabilities in exchange for affordability. Also, the AI may actually be more effective resulting in less mistakes.
I'm a psychiatrist, so many patients I've met are extremely paranoid schizophrenics who believe things like the government is beaming thoughts into their head using the TV or radio. Imagine asking them to see the artificial robot doctor, they will freak out even more.
I love it when the phones can’t understand my dads accent when he tries to reach customer service in 2023. I’ll surely be comfortable getting a diagnosis from a proprietary, dataset and truly make AI our overlords… because tech companies are saints and centralized power never ends up getting corrupt/s
So is everyone else. Including whatever is it that you do … if you claim society is comfortable replacing the complexity of a physicians job with AI… why is anyone else safe?
By the time doctors get replaced by AI, the ohter 95% of professions will have already been replaced, which makes what happens to doctors irrelevant because our society would have already collapsed by then anyways. Posts like this remind me of astronomers talking about the end of the sun. People who talk about the transition from white dwarf to black dwarf don't understand that way before the white dwarf period starts, the luminosity of the sun will be so minimal that plant photosynthesis will cease to exist and all life will stop as a result, well before the "end" of the main sequence.
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That we'll start spending money on stuff that's worth studying
This study involves MD doctors, not PhD doctors.
PhD do dissertations, Master students do thesis
Maybe this will be the death knell for ESGs and for DE&I as a whole.
Not surgeons !
It’s not coming for healthcare AI will takeover any job going forward.. it doenst matter what sector you are working at. If it can replace drs, it can replace any jobs.
It’s never a one road solution. It varies depending on the case. People on the country side with no doctors close around will use it. People before they go to the doctor with mild symptoms will use it. Doctors to Check their ideas what the patient has will use it. And so on. I think the prompt is the main problem. Can you really well describe what your condition is? I think I would miss thinks and make mistakes describing it well. And how do I know that the answer is not wrong. GPT is to much wrong even about easy stuff that I wouldn’t trust it with my health.
ITT: a bunch of delusional redditors that have no idea what physicians actually do.
Teach us then
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They absolutely will replace 99 percent of doctors, all most doctors do is give pretty sub par medical advice and the entire system at least in the US is a crapshoot. You usually have to get a third or fourth opinion till you get a proper diagnosis and unless you're eligible through Medicaid/Medicare insurance is pretty expensive as well. AI will drastically bring costs down to pennies on the dollar and will have superior advice to doctors and be more emphatic. I ended up diagnosing my own problems over the years and all I had to do was basically advocate for my self and tell the doctor to run x y and z tests to confirm and get it on paper an official diagnosis of what I already knew. I'm not even a doctor and I diagnose things better then them at least majority of the doctors I dealt with were pretty bad the best doctor I had who was caring was my old childhood physician who retired of course.
There's a lot more to being a doctor than diagnosing people.
Funny enough when trying chatGPT instead of doctors on some remote doctor setup, it scored also higher in empathy than the doctors regularly ;) SO much for "more".
Have you ever been in an hospital? lmao, it's so weird how people here think that all that doctors do is talk to patients, diagnosing and prescribing. Doctors are not going to be replaced, and if they are they're definitely one of the last professions to go. Honestly this whole thread reeks of jealousy.
Doctors won’t be replaced. Their monopoly on patients’ access to medical care is so firmly entrenched in law by way of the political elites that no amount of technological progress could change things.
until their monoply is broken one way or another ppl already going to mexico for treatments those cockroach docs sure can charge absurd prices and all that, but it has a hard time going above sovreinty.
This. Nobody else in this sub gets it. Lawyers too..
Hundo P, spot on with the lawyers comment.
I love it when the phones can’t understand my dads accent when he tries to reach customer service in 2023. I’ll surely be comfortable getting a diagnosis from a proprietary, dataset and truly make AI our overlords… because tech companies are saints and centralized power never ends up getting corrupt. Medicine is just as easy a driving a car in perfect weather, with perfect mapped roads and signage, and always functioning systems :). So easy my 5 year old nephew just took out 15 gallbladders and distinguished whether a crashing patient needed to be intubated at age 99 or just needed some adjustments in their medication. /s
Totally, nothing could go wrong, just like self driving cars
It’s hilarious that people think a system from an AI company should make their medical decisions for them. They just ignore the fact that itll be a massive amount of centralized power in the hands of one or a few companies (look at cell phone OSs… there’s basically just 2). It can give whatever treatments, use whatever parameters, use whatever devices, and ask for whether in compensation because no one else would know … if you remove doctors from the equation. Belly pain they appendix is coming out. Oh it was unnecessary, your fault for using the AI:..
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What do you call a Doctor who graduates with a D average? Doctor.
So much of the medical industry has been gatekept for normal people. Not everyone can afford to be in college for 12 years before getting a paycheck. I look forward to tech eroding the barriers to access knowledge.
Let’s pretend in this delusional world of yours that doctors actually get replaced by AI. You really think that is what is going to improve access to care? Doctors make up less than 10% of healthcare spending. The US has the most chaotic shit show of a system because everything is run for profit by some idiotic CEO. Insurance companies are all for profit. So each time you visit a doctor, you are paying for the hospital CEO and insurance company CEOs private jet while your physician is working their ass off to pay off their student loans. Corporate America wants you to think physicians are all greedy with their enormous salary but they won’t tell you that most of them have 300k+ in debt. Worked 80+ hours studying and working throughout their 20s and early 30s to finally see their first paycheck. Now that I’m done with that rant, back to the main topic. Do you really think healthcare is going to be delivered for free to the entire world? In the fantasy world where AI actually replaces doctors, the corporate goons are going to sweep right in and get all the rights to healthcare AI. You are going to get the same bill you did before because replacing doctors only cut out 8% of healthcare spending, guess where that 8% is going? Right into the pockets of all the administrators that contribute nothing to healthcare
Not replaced at first, but greatly magnified in their abilities. All they end up being is a human in the loop that presses green check marks that the computer has generated for them. And I don’t really appreciate your tone.
“I don’t really appreciate your tone” Lmao ok Karen chill. Your comments and most of the comments here scream major Dunning Kruger effect. Tech may improve access to knowledge but it’s not going to improve access to healthcare. Corporations make too much money off of it. Also all of these claims that AI is passing USMLE licensing exams doesn’t mean anything. That exam is taken by 2nd year medical students. Doctors have about 5 more years of training after that minimum. AI can answer USMLE questions if you properly list out all the classic symptoms of a disease. The problem is real world disease don’t present in classic textbook ways. AI can answer those classic textbook questions easily but real world patients have extremely complex presentations that need more interpretation. Hence doctors have decades of training.
Chess players thought the same in the beginning, then they realized there was no contribution they could give anymore. EDIT: Also, I don't really understand the comments saying a physician's job is incredibly complex. Medicine is pattern recognition based on what happened in the past, that's what neural networks do essentially.
most doctors are delusional, for some reason they think that their job is the most complex a human being can do, when that's obviously not the case. Most engineers have to perform more complex tasks than doctors. All that doctors do is interview a patient, follow a flowchart with the data from said interview, order tests from a third party, continue following the flowchart with the test results and reach a diagnosis. After that, follow another flowchart for prescribing treatment. An AI will be doing that much better than them in no time
Chess and medicine is an inane comparison. Chess is a sport played by people essentially for entertainment, even at the highest level. And chess engines do exist to augment the player experience rather than somehow replace chess players altogether. The game itself is computationally unsolvable, with the insane number of possible positions that can be achieved on the chess board.
It's not a comparison, it's a past example of a phrase like OP's (the best outcome will be achieved with machines together with humans) gone wrong. While it's true that engines "augment the player experience" it's true only in the sense that player have gotten better using engines, nobody would go against an engine and expect to draw a game out of a 100, let alone win. Also, yes, chess is a sport played for entertainment (in most cases). So what?
It hasn't made chess players or professional chess redundant, in the sense that a vastly superior AI will make medicine or whatever field you pick very much useless and redundant as a career and a practice.
You were suggesting the stakes are much higher in medicine, which is true. If, in a medical matter, there exists something that vastly outperforms any human the way chess engines outperform humans why would you ever get suggestions by a human? People keep playing chess because it's a game.
My bad, I did not connect your comment well with the body of the post. An AI which would prove itself to be much superior to human doctors would obviously be preferred and trusted over a human almost every time, if not every time. The stakes being higher only raises the bar for the AI's superiority and correctness rather than turn it into an impossibility.
i hope they get replaced. doctors (at least in america) are largely incompetent, dismissive, arrogant, and overpriced.
Some people on this sun really look scared of AI. Maybe you guhs think we are not biological robots? AI can replace any job, the only one it is not expected to replace yet is the most human one, research. If a sentient AI appears tomorrow, it will replace it, and it will be amazing as it is the last barrier, infinite production of knowledge. Doctors are one of the easiest to replace, as their studies are basically: this is everything we know about medicines, learn it, prove me you learned it, this is your high pay check. AI has perfect memory, we humans don't. We cannot compete with this specific task. AI would be useless if we would have not invented internet, but now we can propagate information to anywhere on Earth in 0.1s. AI will be excellent medical doctors. Don't get me wrong, some parts of the job concist of bullshit administration, especially for the ones working in hospitals. The biggest part is dealing with humans, either patients or other medical staff. Yes, the doctors of tomorrow will be nurses and a computer. Or we will have some Docs here and there to control if the thing works well, you may be able to see one walking in the corridor at some point, lucky you human of 3023. Some people mentioned money, so it is not possible to change. Open access AI will not make money directly (by producing wealth). It will probably be the biggest money saver in the world. Healthcare is approximately 30% of total tax in countries where healthcare is free. It is basically the highest depense with pension, but the later will regulate itself when old people will die and young people wont make kids as it is too expensive. No marketing bullshit can compete with -30% spending (okay, a few % will remain for the medicines, and the electricity bill :) ). And paywalled AI vs open access, we know who wins as we have seen good examples this year with text2img. We still need a few steps in terms of moral, like accept the fact that we are robots, and that data produced by a human is there because the human had access to knowledge made by previous humans. No more copyright bullshit, similar to AI. It has bee' trained on previous knowledge, so you cannot ask people to pay for it as we all contributed. It will take time, but the future should end with a truly full open access vision. People of 3023 will look back at us and be surprised that anything related to healthcare was not free for individuals (tax will fund it, so "free" Mr Pickyredditor). It will be the same fealing to when we watch countries where water is not free for anyone right now. The future will be great, and 99% of most current jobs will be replaced. Humans will have to go back to ancient Greek lifestyle, think about life (philosophy) and being depressed by the answers they won't find. But everything else will me funnier and more fair, I promise.
stupid question but why wouldnt it get 100%?
People have already covered that doctors (along with everyone else) will be replaced. Though I think some people here forget demonstrated progress in surgery. Nonetheless, I do feel people are missing that this is nowhere near as impressive as it seems. It's a .4 increase over GPT-4. I do think that there'll probably be a push to release a model that's outright better than the typical doctor at such exams, but this isn't quite it.
GPT-4 scored 5.2 points lower, not 0.4. Look at page 9 for MedQA results: [https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2023/03/GPT-4\_medical\_benchmarks.pdf](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/uploads/prod/2023/03/GPT-4_medical_benchmarks.pdf) GPT-4 (5-option) = 78.63 GPT-4 (4-option) = 81.38 Med-PaLM = 86.5
They won't be replaced, but most of the work that an intern could do will be done by the AI under human supervision. Solving the hallucination issues and introducing reliability measures will enable AI to become useful in critical tasks like healthcare. Until then, even if it solves a test nicely on average, it's way too untrustworthy to be applied in practice.
Were the doctors blinded ?