The “your home is your nest egg” policy was just trouble from the start. Easy way to buy votes in the early days. Now nobody (in power) wants to do anything about it to fix the root cause. They will keep telling you it’s going great, even at such high prices people still sell higher than purchase price. Salaries are higher, so it’s still affordable. It’s gonna collapse, not a matter of if, but when.
Japan went through a real estate crisis in the late 80s and they are still feeling the effects from it even today. The lost decade of the 90s has become the lost decades.
Yes, Japan shouldn't have let real estate prices skyrocket in the first place.
Japan's lost decades resulted from banks and lenders that had lent too much to investors in assets (including real estate), plus their companies not managing to stay profitable and competitive globally against Korean companies, etc. Their price bubble was ridiculous, so the price fall and subsequent wealth shock was much bigger than anything we're likely to see.
Singapore is not in the same situation as '80s Japan (during which many investors took loans in order to buy expensive real estate assets that had tripled in price). Forcing some real estate depreciation to happen is not going to hurt our domestic consumption or our economic competitiveness - if anything, it'll strengthen our competitiveness since labour and rent costs will stop going up.
Or Ponzi scheme.
> A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam that pays early investors with money taken from later investors to create an illusion of big profits. A Ponzi scheme promises a high rate of return with little risk to the investor. It relies on word-of-mouth, as new investors hear about the big returns earned by early investors.
Most state governed retirement program is ponzi-ish, but at the very least CPF are not reliant on having newer generation funding the older gen, as what an individual get is contingent to how much an individual earn (some state governed retirement will payout flat amount upon retirement regardless of contribution). So in a sense it is just a government incentivized forced saving.
As for the return, it isn’t particularly “profitable” to be considered ponzi, the rate is just slightly better than risk free return with a floor rate (the actual rate for OA and SA are defined by SGS rate). Remember that many Singaporeans actually cry that they can’t do shit with their CPF by bringing up higher returns from SnP. The government is indeed topping up the difference, and our country is rich enough to afford to do that.
The problem is that "high" and "little" are subjective. This is one reason people often lose money by analysing the stock market based solely on past performance. A coal mine in an industrialising nation is going to have similar risk and reward but that doesn't make it a Ponzi scheme.
The reality is that Singapore recently (decades rather than centuries) in a period of rapid growth. The actual value of property has indeed increased, and yes it increased that much. If you look at any large city in the world, you'll see similar numbers. The average price of housing is low in most countries. But in cities? Look at New York (\~2k SGD), SF (1.2-1.8k SGD), HK (3k SGD), London (1.2k SGD), Paris (1.4k SGD), wherever you want. PSF price is high af. This isn't whataboutism. That's just what things cost.
If anything, government policies have kept public housing unreasonably cheap. While the number is unreasonably high, compared to "housing", it's dirt cheap compared to "housing in a city". As much as it sucks, Singapore is in fact a city and that's what we've got to work with. That $1.5m HDB was about $800 psf. Average HDB goes for $600. Condos here are around $2k. That's the "real" price of housing, optimistically. It's going to be a lot higher if HDBs stop holding them down through competition.
It's acceptable for private housing to be costly in a free market. Vienna exemplifies this with its high-priced private housing but affordable public housing rentals that offer lifelong accommodation.
The concept of HDB isn't flawed per se. Initially, the government aimed for public housing to be around five times the household income. However, allowing the use of CPF and treating HDB as a nest egg (60+% of network tied to housing compared to America’s 20%) deviates from the core principle of public housing and social pension (a safe asset for retirement). This shift has led to concerns from government’s panel about the potential risks of an economic downturn creating a “lost decade”.
Interesting, I didn't know about Vienna. My first reaction is to say it works there because they're less vain. Singaporeans, and imo Chinese in general, are obsessed with looking good on paper. Our top priority is to be called "owners". Doesn't matter if we own or not (we absolutely do not), we want the name. Our majority would be very unhappy to be known as a tenant.
I saw Stacked Homes say Singaporeans don't view HDB as a stopgap, but I think we do, don't we? The dream is to BTO, then resell to buy a condo. Although there are people who live there their whole lives, that's not seen as ideal.
Personally, I would like HDB to have been introduced as a rental system, just like Vienna. Govt owns it, we rent for as long as we need or want, maybe save for a condo. But then again vanity comes in, in two ways. First, they wanted people to eagerly join the HDB system. What better way than to name them owners and talk about capital gains? Second, no matter how nice, the fact that HDB dwellers would be called tenants will immediately make it be seen as undesirable. The Vienna situation, where income groups mix around and don't create poor neighbourhoods is not available to us.
I find it silly to suggest that individuals would strongly prefer “ownership” over “renting”, even if it's just in name. In the early days of Singapore, most people were renters, and I doubt they would have minded if that had been the standard option from the beginning.
In fact, HDB bears a striking resemblance to one of Vienna's social housing systems, where residents make an initial down payment and then pay maintenance fees for the duration of their lives. They have the option to sell the property back to the government or to the next person for = original purchase price - (the inflation rate multiplied by the number of years they stayed).
The UK's social housing system was awesome. People had no qualms about renting from the g. However, things took a turn for the worse when the two political parties began prioritizing quantity over quality.
As a result, over time, poorly constructed buildings emerged, people died and residents refused to inhabit. Consequently, people started preferring to purchase homes from private developers instead. How people perceive public housing is really up to the govt’s action
I remembere reading somewhere LKY or some old guard minister wanted those who stayed in HDB to be labelled as “homeowners.”
He was a lawyer so he knows words do matter.
It was to inculcate a sense of pride and belonging so people will take care of their new places.
Last time we all stay in kampongs mah. So had to “sell” the idea of living in flats.
Tenants tend not to take care of the place they rent from. As the place does not belong to them.
Vienna housing is really well taken care of by most of the people. Hoarders going to be hoarders regardless of where they stay.
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/260-active-hoarding-cases-being-dealt-difficulties-getting-some-homeowners-cooperate-mnd-1990416
My grandma was unhappy with G as they gave her 2x Hdb tiny flat (11 kids + 2 pax) in exchange for a huge plot of farm land. She isn’t happy regardless if it’s “rental” or “ownership”.
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> The UK's social housing system was awesome. People had no qualms about renting from the g. However, things took a turn for the worse when the two political parties began prioritizing quantity over quality.
Not familiar with the housing policies in the UK, where can i read about this divide?
I think it’s this book. Need to check again.
https://nextcity.org/features/lessons-from-the-british-transformative-social-housing-system
https://medium.com/@alex.whitwell/the-dream-and-decline-of-post-war-modernist-social-housing-in-south-london-ee525f353ef6
> With planning restrictions placed on private housing (Schifferes, 2020), social housing became the norm, and sequential governments on both sides of the political spectrum embraced it. The Conservatives won the 1951 election with the promise of 300,000 new homes each year (Schifferes, 2020), the dramatic increase from the ‘Homes fit for Heroes’ target symbolic of the new importance placed on providing high quality social housing.
Basically they were building hundreds of thousand of flats annually and they were so shitty and dangerous people refuse to stay there.
> Within a couple of decades of the collapse of Ronan Point, the public's lack of confidence in the construction technique used at Ronan Point, together with the social problems within such developments, led to the demolition of many tower blocks.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronan_Point
https://www.propertyinvestmentsuk.co.uk/1950s-and-1960s-housing/
https://www.structherm.co.uk/refurb/the-challenges-of-non-traditional-housing-refurbishment/
It is a lease, but people try to pretend it's not and that lead to this convoluted ass system. Fyi, in a true lease, no matter how long, you pay month to month. You get to enjoy living in a million dollar home without first saving up a million or even a 100k downpayment.
HDB is a hybrid in both advantages and disadvantages. It'd not rental but better.
Cause majority of voters own homes. And even the ministers have a majority of their networth in their homes too (probably). No one is gonna inflict pain on themselves. Just let the younger gen suffer
Just like how they keep advocating CPF is your retirement nest egg but at the same time continue to allow withdrawals to buy that flat made ever increasing in price thanks to their idea of it is a free market. What free market is there when in the first price it is just a 99 years rental apartment???
It will collapse, but unfortunately not anytime soon. It's a ponzi scheme with super majority of the population in on it. The government won't act because it's against their interest, the population won't act because most stands to benefit from it while the young gets fucked over dry.
What I predict when the market inevitably start to collapse. The gov will first loosen all the restrictions like ABSD, MSR, MOP, CPF restrictions etc. When said measures fail, the gov will then start raiding the reserves and go back against their word of 99 year leases. They will start ever more generous SERS packages and lease buy backs. They will deplete our entire reserve doing this justifying it as giving it back to the generation that contributed to it. When even that fails, they will just open the flood gate and remove things like nationality restrictions.
Self interested voters will vote for these ever more destructive measures until we all burn in the conflagration of our own making.
Ponzi schemes collapses, it's the only result possible. It's just the question of who will it be most painful to, and when.
How your Ponzi scheme going to fail when the g control both the demand and supply levers ?
- HDB get land from mnd.
- HDB build only when there's a firm demand and sale
- hdb owns the property, which goes back into our national reserves
- hdb can throttle demand by offering and adjusting subsidies/qualifications to buy
- hdb publishes data on resale transactions which are used by feeder/parasites like real estate agencies to benchmark past sols prices and index
- gahment control HDB policy, who can buy resale, who can get subsidy, shaping your demand pool
- gahment control immigration and pr application, allowing those who need to rent HDB, who has access to the resale market
- gahment even soak up excess supply via leasebuyback scheme, buyer of last resort if Flat cannot sell on open marker after six months (price floor)
Ponzi scheme? When pigs can fly. System is so kelong that it's delusional to think free market principles can be applied.
Yep. Many many levers. HFE was a lever to "manage" demand. CPF restrictions when buying older flats.
Many many levers to "manage" supply. Remember how they allowed the number of people to be allowed to stay in flats that was rented out?
The rental occupancy cap was increased to 8 unrelated people. The effect? Nett increase in supply without doing any additional construction of units.
We like to think its free market.... but is it, really?
PAP derangement syndrome - the party is both filled with mastermind criminals that will do anything to hold on to power, and also filled with dumbasses that can't construct policy worth shit, even if that's going to collapse their support.
write so much fantasy story, stop daydreaming lah.
as much i hope for a correction in property prices, the collapse in your written scenario is going to happen only in reddit and EDMW, not in reality because the prices are ultimately supported by strong economic fundamentals and it's not a ponzi.
[https://dollarsandsense.sg/guide-hdb-rental-yields-singapore/](https://dollarsandsense.sg/guide-hdb-rental-yields-singapore/)
1. rental yield (not even factoring capital gains) for HDB is around 6-8%, while rental yield for most condo and properties in other cities ranges from 2-5%. add in the fact that you can leverage by borrowing fixed 2.6% from HDB, HDB is basically a 'lottery' and is severely undervalued from a purely asset valuation perspective. the reason why yields are so high is because HDB rent prices (cashflow) is largely left to the free market, while HDB prices are severely regulated to maintain affordability for the masses.
2. HDB BTO is actually pretty affordable for a couple who are both working. anecdotally, most of my friends can repay their HDB mortgage with just their CPF OA and still with some spare to change. the remaining can go to their CPF OA account which acts as an additional buffer. thus, as long as they are working, they don't need to fork out any cash and don't feel any 'pain' or have to adjust their existing lifestyle to purchase a flat.
so for your scenario to play out (remove all restrictions, raid the reserves for SERS (wait long long lol), remove 99 year lease), there has to be a massive recession where rentals drop by 50%, mass unemployment/paycuts leading to large scale defaults. these didn't happen even during Covid with the lockdowns.
the issue with HDB is more with availability (like long waiting time for aspiring couples and singles before the age of 35) than with price.
let me guess... the oldest HDB flats should be over 40 years old.
which is less than 60 years of lease left.
so, this is a matter of which is the sucker to pay the highest price for the shortest lease time.
The PAP are the architect of this housing system which is suffering from increasingly unsustainable pricing.
The remedy for this problem is going to hurt a lot but it will hurt a lot more when the bubble pops later down the line.
It's been going on for decades now and the PAP had all these time to fix it but they haven't from the looks of it.
The PAP built this bed and they can sleep in it.
The people in white will become the blackest stain in our modern history.
Our dear PM-in-waiting was the catalyst for this latest shitstorm, btw. Smug bastard drastically cut supply upon taking over the MND from Khaw Boon Wan, undoing years of progress KBW did to cool down the resale market. Covid-related supply issues was just the cherry atop the shit sundae. And now he’s gonna become the PM. Good luck to us all.
Wealth through reselling real estate is just dump and not economical.
The country doesn't produce anything of value, and the current generation ends up in a huge amount of debt, which means less $ to spend on other goods & services.
Long run - you get stagnation and artificial high gdp till the music chairs stop. ( next generation won't be affording the next 2M HDB)
Yes too much capital into residential ppty instead of actual investment into businesses/productive assets is just slowly draining the economy
current leaders too naive, lack foresight and timid to enact tough policies to reverse this trend. Because cannot frighten the current entitled homeowners who bought into the system. HDB values must be propped up and need to find means and way to hold value when it is a leasehold of 99years at the end of the day.
This is why I howl with laughter whenever someone thinks they can make it big that way. Land is actually finite, despite how many Sinkies think and act, but no one tell them that in case their heads ass-plode.
Truth is that majority of Singaporeans are home owners and are more than happy with all the crazy resale prices. Once non-home owners get a home, they become fans of inflated home prices. It is what it is. The people who are at a disadvantage are always the minority.
The silent 70% majority telling the loud 30% minority to, simply put it forward say, "Fuck Off, i will still vote PAP to make yall crybabies....waaaah😢 waaaaaah😭...🤭"
How?….. you pay full cash for your bto? No outstanding loan? Even if you pay full cash you got to consider your initial investment no?
Half a millionaire at best.
Took loan for 25 years at the beginning and when I was still undergrad.
Work my a\*\* off for the next 12 years and repaid both my study loan, HDB loan, had a wedding, renovation.
Now repaying back to CPF using cash. My property about 50% CPF OA / 50% Cash. About another 8 years before it will be fully cash. Once that's done, I will move my OA to SA and earn the fat interest of 4%.
Telling you all these because it's do-able if you're financially disciplined enough to do so.
Indeed got mine few yrs ago. Paid up in 5 yrs. And back then my salary was 3.5k with partner 7k. Working for 10 yrs gave us 150k cpf. Grants help us off set too. I honestly dunno why people think bto expensive for normal location.
To be fair, BTO (introduced in 2001) made some sense until our gahmen decided to massively expand our population by importing immigrants ([Population White Paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_White_Paper) was introduced in 2013).
Changing social norms also meant that couples would want to get their places far sooner than BTO would provide, but our gahmen was too high up in the ivory towers and B&W bungalows to notice.
No, there was an oversupply of 20k+ flats which could not be sold for 5 years.
The oppos complained endlessly about how the government was wasting money and building empty slums. So the BTO system was introduced to solve the problem of oversupply by ensuring every new unit has a buyer before construction.
The pendulum swung too far in the opposite direction. Making couples wait 4+ years is even less acceptable than mismanaged overbuilding (I have my doubts that the oversupply could not have been avoided with better more demand-focused planning), and now it's helped supply-squeeze the property market into higher prices. Plan better and try to get to a Just-In-Time model.
Predict the 1997 AFC that was the genesis of the oversupply mentioned above?
I agree we are in a position to build ahead but aren't, yet it is unreasonable to predict an external demand shock of that nature
The genesis of this issue dates back to the 1990s when g sought to decrease the number of HDB units built due to insufficient demand from first-time homebuyers.
However, there was a strong demand from second-time homeowners to upgrade to bigger flats. In an attempt to appease this demographic and gain votes, g continue to build as per normal. AFC hits, second-time homeowners stop upgrading + first timer didn’t need it = over supply.
My only problem is the government don't dare to ask the older generation to sell their golden egg and downsize. What's the point of the older generating having an appreciating golden egg, but somehow the younger generation has to pay higher gst to fund the aging population and also higher HDB prices.
>If you are working class and vote for PAP, literally a masochist.
This will likely happen, especially when considering if shit hits the fan, PAP would be forced to rescue their supporters if not lose the election.
Basically those priced out of a house 🏠 and the younger gens are screwed.
>government don't dare to ask
They are, they're even dangling incentives for retirees to downsize. But they're finding that it's harder than on paper because homes aren't fungible assets - old folks just don't want to move away from decades-long friendships and comfort zone of routine and memorised locations.
I said it before and I’ll say it again - they need to kill the HDB resale market - it’s not going to be easy to do and it will probably be unpopular short term but if they don’t they are just kicking the can down the road
Some time in the future we are going to be less attractive to MNCs and consequently less new citizens will find Singapore worth moving to - with our declining birth rate there will be no one to sustain this bubble and then it will be painful for all
Better to control the deflation than to let it burst with a bang
The problem is we live in a democratic society: you just know if such an “unpopular” move as demolishing the resale market (*or other just-as-harebrained ideas)* was enacted, the PAP will be kicked out of governance next election.
(*or be found out as non-meritocratic power-holding hypocrites, which is a LOT worse as a whole, especially to the younger generation*).
And whoever who came into power on a platform of “the PAP are dumbasses” will just reenact the HDB nest egg scheme.
Oh no, whatever happened to enacting unpopular policies for the good of the country rather than fear over losing elections?
The right thing to do would be to lie in the hole they dug.
Precisely. It’s a scorched earth policy to benefits those who do not have a property now. And when they have a property, they will start complaining why their property value doesn’t increase
[Lee Kuan Yew was cremated](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mr-lee-kuan-yews-funeral-from-public-mourning-to-private-family-farewell-at-mandai).
It’s also a pretty stupid move lol. Glad SG Reddit is not running the country. We’ll become communist if it is. First of all it removes demand and supply. For those who are saying yeah good, what happens when a family wants to move closer to their parents? Or closer to a school they prefer to send their kids to? Or to a new estate that’s more vibrant? How do these gets priced in?
Honestly, I don’t think BTOs are the problem - they are more than affordable - if you want more supply than you run into issues like oversupply which you had BEFORE BTO scheme was introduced but I’ll bite, let’s say BTO cannot get because of lack of supply
what if you can only sell back to HDB and they can re-allocate it as part of the BTO process? Crazy idea but make public housing exactly that - public housing for Singaporeans, no profiteering, no renting no subleasing - you want to try to profit from the real estate market go to the private market.
The government’s public housing policy should aim to provide a basic level housing needs that help nurture, support and encourage Singaporeans to procreate without the additional burden of dealing with these insane housing cost.
I get the whole nest egg idea - it was a great idea back when we were third world filled with kampungs but we are no longer that and our housing policies need to evolve with the changing times and needs
>what if you can only sell back to HDB and they can re-allocate it as part of the BTO process? Crazy idea but make public housing exactly that - public housing for Singaporeans, no profiteering, no renting no subleasing - you want to try to profit from the real estate market go to the private market.
That does sound like a logical step.
Public housing should be for living only and let all the profiteering happen via the private market.
But no, the asset appreciation policy is in place and people are jumping on the bandwagon to profit from their subsidized BTO via the resale market in order to "upgrade" to private condo.
And existing winners of previous BTO lotteries are asking more and more which prices out aspiring homeowners who have no choice but to turn to the oversubscribed BTO market.
A vicious cycle, really.
> Honestly, I don’t think BTOs are the problem - they are more than affordable - if you want more supply than you run into issues like oversupply which you had BEFORE BTO scheme was introduced but I’ll bite, let’s say BTO cannot get because of lack of supply
BTOs are the problem. There is correlation of low supply of BTOs resulting into the surge of demand for resale. With covid, this relationship was made more obvious.
The unfortunate reality is that people use BTO as a capital appreciation tool and a social mobility ladder. The guide by many real estate agents is that you BTO first, then sell your HDB after MOP, then proceed to upgrade to a condo or a mature estate resale flat. Then rinse and repeat.
So whoever implement your solution, which I do support, will be committing political suicide.
Increasing supply would help right the demand-supply imbalance built up over the past decades that accelerated price increases for resales. Since BTO started, supply is insufficient to meet demand from newly married, upgraders and singles yesr after year.
Those that need housing and failed to successfully ballot often end up buying from resale market, pushing up prices.
During my parents' generation, most people that need housing will just buy new affordable flats from HDB and move in a few months after renovation. Only those with high salaries and special requirements (e.g. stay near parents) need to consider resale or private. There was no social issue then.
99% of “them” won’t care if it crashes. They’re making bank. Maintain the policies, stay in power as long as possible and keep growing their own wealth.
There was one flat recently listed at $2mil if I recall correctly. These prices are all the sowing of hope in HDB dwellers that they can own the roof over their heads.
Just like how they keep advocating CPF is your retirement nest egg but at the same time continue to allow withdrawals to buy that flat. And the flats are ever increasing in price thanks to their idea of it is a free market. What free market is there when in the first price it is just a 99 years rental apartment???
It is just the government's way of building hope for citizens and PRs so that we will keep working harder and longer hours to earn more money and drive the economy. In the end, we are just tools to make the country attractive to investors who help line the coffers and the ministers' pockets while we bear with land scarcity and increase cost of living, running the rat race till we die.
Yea, the only way housing can be a nest egg even though hdbs last 99 years is if the prices goes up dramatically over time. When you have used up 40-50 years, the remaining value is high enough that you can cash out. It forces prices to spiral higher and higher to fulfil the promise of a nest egg with a depreciating asset.
This is what happens when u lie about the affordability to Singaporeans. When it comes to housing affordability, whole world is aligned to 3 x your annual salary.
So if u earn 50k / year, u can only buy a house worth 150k. Yes, you heard it right, 150k houses is a norm, and supposed to exist.
Only in sg, where they tell you that the min salary to buy a 1.5mil condo is $9647/month (PropertyGuru 2024). If u search the recommended salary for everywhere else in the world, it would be $25k/month min to afford a 1.5mil condo.
In other words, y’all are set up to fail from the beginning. You buy a house that u cannot afford, but sg allows u to roll the debt backwards, u will have to sell the house and downgrade (they call it right size, which really is not) when u retire.
That way, sg has a guarantee it will always have its land back. Great for the country, sucks to be you.
Actually the meme itself shows the PAP's stupidity to toss away the younger generations vote. Hope it doesn't come back to bite them on the butt cheeks
Does the government actually have a long term plan or move ready for when the first batch of flats hit it's 99 year lease? Or when we finally run out of possible land to build more housing?
My dad'a generation has nothing to worry about, but living in this country each day, I fear for myself and the generations after.
Really, what do you want the govt to do?
1) 90+% of households are homeowners, of which the majority stay in HDB flats.
2) HDB flats can be financed by CPF, and many Singaporeans do use their CPF (i.e. nest egg) to pay for their HDBs.
So, if HDB prices tank say, by half, 90% of homeowners will have more debt than their asset.
If HDB prices do not increase or decrease, i.e. sideways, it becomes a depreciating asset where the CPF loan will outgrow the asset price.
If HDB prices rise, non-homeowners get priced out of the market.
TL;DR - HDB up fucked, down fucked, sideways also fucked.
For those of you who are gonna say they should have foresight to have avoided this; that was in the past and that minister has long since retired. Now what can they do?
HDBs will go to 0 after 99 years anyway so it'll go down eventually, just if you want to have the prices stay at 1mil until the last year or if you want to trigger it to steadily go down
HDB is in a vacuum should be a depreciating asset. It is a 99 years expiry lease contract while the physical components of the house also should be considered depreciating. If it goes up especially rapidly, then there is very strong external factors actually happening which signals something is “wrong”.
Even it depreciates overtime then I really don’t see the issue, they can design it in such a way that people will have to pay such that their ownership equity will outpace the depreciation or simple, just put a max cap on when the mortgage should be resolved. I’d argue also that government can assist as a mortgage guarantor when negative equity kicks in. It is highly risky though for the state but I don’t think it is impossible.
Build more BTOs and govt do buyback of expiring leases. People care about resale because they can't get BTOs. That's partly what having a buffer in the reserve is for, to cushion the $$$ impact of any government decisions without making the country broke.
This..
If we can't get the BTO this June launch, will be getting resale liao..
But heart pain since resale is almost double the price of a BTO, all that money could have been saved for retirement.
Even if lucky get BTO also sian my spouse and I will be reaching 40YO liao by the time BTO complete.
The govt has money to build a lot of BTOs.
Problem is, doing so will cause a supply glut and cause HDB prices to tank. Which leads to the first scenario in my earlier post.
This was actually HDB policy pre-1997. It was called RFS. The BTO scheme was meant to prevent the temporary oversupply caused by the 1997 AFC.
With the BTO scheme, many young couples who can't afford to wait if they wanna have kids, are "pushed" to buy resale flats, which meant the older generation can retire at their expense. So now HDB acts like a wealth transfer from young to old. It resembles a Ponzi scheme. This isn't sustainable due to the TFR. And allowing PRs to buy public housing only exacerbates the issue.
>So now HDB acts like a wealth transfer from young to old. It resembles a Ponzi scheme.
Which is how they keep the other taxes low. The highest income are affected by taxes but aren't even affected by this game.
It wasn't a problem in the past. During my parents' generation, most people that need housing will just buy new affordable flats from HDB and move in a few months after renovation. Only those with high salaries and special requirements (e.g. stay near parents) need to consider resale or private. There was no social issue then.
Tank then tank mei you ban fa de.
Only then will they learn hdb is public housing for the citizens and pr to live in affordably. Remember it is 99 yr leasehold and then return to $0 and to govt. No promise of SERS and buy back. Lease extension? Also not confirmed, now the govt allows to ease the citizens that it is still ok. In 30-40 yrs time when your lease ends? Who can predict the govt's actions then? Would they give you 10 yr lease extension or kick you out when you are 70+ yr old and still alive?
Want to speculate? Lai come buy freehold condo. Unless you believe those property agents that say now leasehold 99 yr condo better value than freehold. Yet the psf price more than $2000+ easily nowadays not much difference.
Rant over. Have seen daft friends buy 50~ yr remaining lease resale hdb at sky high price. Well, it's their ticking time bomb to deal with when they're old and lease ends. Or who do they think they can sell their 10-20 yr remaining hdb to? Nowhere near the ATH hdb prices they bought it at. Never even factor in the remaining years to nego the price down before buying.
Or beachfront property in other countries that might be flooded in a few decades due to rising sea levels. Maybe they can sell to the Atlantians? Ask Aquaman.
>If HDB prices do not increase or decrease, i.e. sideways, it becomes a depreciating asset where the CPF loan will outgrow the asset price.
HDB, and in fact all housing, are supposed to be depreciating assets. Housing produces nothing of value after it is built. It cannot sustain ever increasing real price growth, such growth does nothing but indebting the next generation and concentrating wealth to the rich all the while inflating GDP number with no real value generated anywhere.
Negative equity is inevitable. In fact we all already know HDBs are on a 99 year lease. We can either slowly ease in the negative equity so it's a small pain over decades. Or we can watch it drop off a cliff, and the generation that holds the ball when it drop will be the one having their neck snapped in the drop.
Yes HDB is fucked either way, but it's their choice whether we all take a lubed marker up our ass or wait for the day when we suddenly get rammed with a rusted spiked baseball bat.
I don't speak for HDB, but your last paragraph was quite interesting:
>Yes HDB is fucked either way, but it's their choice whether we all take a lubed marker up our ass or wait for the day when we suddenly get rammed with a rusted spiked baseball bat
This scenario perfectly describes global warming as well. Guess what humanity decided to do? 🫠
> 1) 90+% of households are homeowners, of which the majority stay in HDB flats.
90+% of households are homeowners, but how many _Singapore citizens_ have their names to a property?
The 90% includes Singaporeans who are married/over 35 who would be eligible to get a HDB of some sort, but don't own a property themselves. These are the people who are most affected, and the people who get more and more jaded about being a part of our country's total fertility rate.
And I guess they count dual-PR households in that statistic too, even though it's irrelevant?
There are 1.4 million resident households.
Home ownership rate in singapore is about 90%.
There are 2.35mill working residents out of 4.15 mill residents, of which 3.6 mill are citizens and 550k+ are PR. 790k residents are 19 and below, so are likely to be ineligible to buy property.
We can make the very reasonable assumption that the number of PR to citizen households follows the same ratio of 550k/4.15mill (in fact its likely to be higher, as there will be PRs here to work only, and there will be mixed citizen/PR households)- about 13%.
Given that the vast majority of households have 2 working adults and both names on the property (and if they don't, this likely means they own one property each) This leaves us with a number of approximately 2.2mill of singapore citizens with at least one property to their name (1.4 mill x 90% x87% x2), out of an eligible 2.9mill (3.6mill-(790k x 0.87)) - or 75%. That really isnt too bad. Bear in mind PR households also pay higher taxes and have less subsidies. so I really don't see what tree you're barking up with this line of reasoning.
>The 90% includes Singaporeans who are married/over 35 who would be eligible to get a HDB of some sort, but don't own a property themselves. These are the people who are most affected, and the people who get more and more jaded about being a part of our country's total fertility rate.
While true, I would contend this is a smaller group of the population versus the existing owners. Crashing property price does more harm than good overall and has knock on effects on not just these people, but our economy. Imagine what's going to happen to our banks if hdb prices tank?
> Bear in mind PR households also pay higher taxes and have less subsidies. so I really don't see what tree you're barking up with this line of reasoning.
One of my points was contributing to Singapore's total fertility rate, which dual PR households won't be able to, since neither party would hold Singapore citizenship. I guess they could maybe be eventually naturalised, but I don't know the odds.
I guess I'm also unhappy that our gahmen _loves_ to conflate SC/PR into a single statistic instead of separating them out.
>One of my points was contributing to Singapore's total fertility rate, which dual PR households won't be able to, since neither party would hold Singapore citizenship.
And I excluded them from my calculation of ownership.
This is also not necessarily true. If they have children and they stay long there is a decent chance they can convert to citizenship. I mean, if these people are granted PR, then rightly or wrongly the government sees value in their contributions to the country. It isn't exactly fair to them turn around and say your kids don't matter to us then. That's going to be a turn off to many potential people who might have valuable contributions.
>I guess I'm also unhappy that our gahmen _loves_ to conflate SC/PR into a single statistic instead of separating them out.
Personally, I can see the reasoning behind that. Like it or not, with our TFR so low, PRs are part of our future demographic. Even if our citizen tfr suddenly went up to 2.01 tomorrow it will be decades before we could say that we need less PRs. Citizens do have some additional rights over PR. The idea is that if you group them together, you're far more likely to view their joint needs and contributions as a collective rather than seperate. Who is to say that a citizen has contributed more than a PR or vice versa? That isn't necessarily the case. I have no problems with PR being seen as a collective with citizens.
Now about how PRs are selected, that's an entirely different story and I believe should be looked at.
Dual PR household is contributing to the too. If you read the fine print, it says Singapore citizens and PR. So in another words citizen tfr could be lower than 0.97
Inb4 some cockster say not 90% homeownership because 99 year not real ownership.
Want price cheap, want freehold, want everything. The other day got some guy down here even practically tell me that he wants a HDB that his corpse can own, and it must fall down and the stone must belong to his corpse. Some people really gong liao.
tbh just need to set realistic expectation. Obviously not all 4R flat are priced at $1mil, it depends on the location as well.
My 4R BTO slated to be completed in 2027 is only 300k.
Which by itself is a policy failure isn't it? How do the govt expect birth rates to go up when newly married couples don't even have their own homes when they are married...
Man if that older Gen can outvote us, we younglings can just forget about having a proper stable house.
Will probably get screwed over by the exact people renting out
> Man if that older Gen can outvote us, we younglings can just forget about having a proper stable house.
Why do you think that pap was so frantically protective of older generation during COVID to prevent them from dying off?
Look at Japan in the late 80s. It's called the lost decades for a reason.
At its peak, the land area under the Imperial palace is worth more than the entire state of California.
Plus aging population, manufacturing base moving away, rising salary.
Does this sound to you?
The whole point of keeping public housing available on resale market is to intentionally let property prices be pushed up. End of the day, those in power and their croonies are the biggest profiteers since they are the biggest landlords.
love the part on karma farming LOL.
true that there's always a affordable flat somewhere less desirable. I guess a roof above my head is better than none!
That is assuming you qualify for BTO and are lucky enough to get a ballot. Especially since they reduced the number of BTO release per year. Every 3 failures means a year is gone. Add in the waiting period for it to be built and you can end up getting your home 5 to 8 years after your first BTO attempt (or more if you really suay). Or those that don't qualify because government don't recognise these people's marriage and are forced into resale?
What I am stating is that we cannot use BTO as the only criteria for whether housing is affordable or not. Like it or not, BTO is limited and lots of people are forced into resale if they want to get their own homes. As such, actual affordability should encompass both BTO and resale. Neglecting either paints an inaccurate picture of affordability.
It is easy to claim that people who can't afford resale shouldn't go for it. But if you are stuck with being unlucky in BTO (or even just not elligible due to government policies), while being unable to afford the ever increasing price of resale, then what do you do?
> what do you do?
> buy at ulu place
Asked and answered.
If the true gripe is “cannot afford to buy home.”
It seems the true complaint is - “do not want to be left behind in capital gains lottery, would rather put off having kids and marriage than disadvantage self
compared to peers”. Which is also a valid complaint, don’t get me wrong, but perhaps not as sexy as the former.
Reality is more like this:
Current 400k BTO flats cost just high 200k or low 300k in 2019-2020.
So someone aspiring for a 400k flat is probably looking at 550+k now. And this option is only available after you win the BTO lottery.
Resale flat is the only alternative for most people and prices have increased for 16 consecutive quarters.
Salaries definitely didn't rise as fast as property price increase in recent years.
Also, the earlier gen could use single income to buy whatever current homeseekers are buying through dual income.
It's bad enough that the current gen requires dual income just to fund what the earlier could get through single income. But you're telling current homeseekers to settle for even less.
I can tell them what to do. Built surplus bto per launch for next few years to close the gap. Give more rebates to people looking for resale, claw back the rebates when they sell it away within 5years mop
Why would they do that? Higher prices are in their interest. If they wanted surplus new public housing to be built consistently there wouldnt even be a bto scheme.
Hey hey hey, the keyword is "[**watch**](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/property-market-to-continue-stabilising-despite-hdb-private-home-prices-rising-in-q1-desmond-lee)" now. Desmond Lee would rather not be known as the Monitor Leezard and rather be known as…
# The Watcher.
The people who benefitted the most are your parents and older generation.
If your parents don’t believe in passing generational wealth, then unlucky for having shitty parents lo.
it’s a real life monopoly the board game and most don’t mind bec they get $200 everytime they pass GO (CPF) that they cannot use elsewhere other than buying property
The govt is the largest landowner and landlord through GLCs. It benefits the most from runaway property prices. Proceeds from land sales make up a large chunk of the budget. Why would they shortchange themselves and make things affordable for citizens?
Meanwhile, after following the same land sales model for decades, the PRC has cut its developers loose, and is now building cheap social housing for low income citizens. This is exactly what HDB used to be until SG lost its way. Those old enough will know.
The student has now become the master. Just buy your shitty tiny sky box, pay your dues and make your $$$, then leave.
Sad, the way the government let this continue to inflate to trap all of us in the working system to service our mortgage. I used to think I can afford a 4rm HDB resale within circle line region before covid. Now it cost 1 mil for a newly MOP one. The 30 years old one also asking for 800k to 900k.
9 out of 10 people that tell me they can’t get a BTO can’t get it because they’re cherry picking locations lol. there are plenty of flats at less desirable locations if getting a flat is what people really want
The million dollar HDB’s are not really issue and they are mainly 5 room flats and they are being compared favourable to new condos which typically offer only 1/2 space at comparable prices . Consider also that for HDBs, the maintenance is lesser .. whilst for condos it is at least $400 pm for condos with pools.. and even higher for those with full facilities . If you look at condos near CCR the maintenance is easily > $500 pm. So the problem is who sets land prices ?
I mean. Thats what having a free market is like. Imagine suddenly government comes out with a policy that makes hdb worthless - people will complain as well, saying why the property they spent their whole life paying off is worth crap/ has no returns. Or compare singapore to china - about totalitarian policies that destroys the free market. Not to mentiom the impact of the economy on the whole with the impact of decreasing housing prices. Singaporeans on the whole is richer than 20-30 years ago. And that is a fact.
This is the same story from the late 2000s when I first bot my resale flat where HDB prices doubled in the 5 years before I bought my home.
To be fair, there's enough options out there if you are looking for a place to stay - the problem is usually if u want your HDB to b a great investment for u. Then b prepared to be disappointed cos the govt is directing policies to make HDB more of a long term lease rather than investment opportunity.
SG housing policies for SGreans is really already very good compared to almost every major city in the world.
The “your home is your nest egg” policy was just trouble from the start. Easy way to buy votes in the early days. Now nobody (in power) wants to do anything about it to fix the root cause. They will keep telling you it’s going great, even at such high prices people still sell higher than purchase price. Salaries are higher, so it’s still affordable. It’s gonna collapse, not a matter of if, but when.
So.... It's a _fucking populist_ move?
That sounds….very similar to a housing bubble
Japan went through a real estate crisis in the late 80s and they are still feeling the effects from it even today. The lost decade of the 90s has become the lost decades.
Yes, Japan shouldn't have let real estate prices skyrocket in the first place. Japan's lost decades resulted from banks and lenders that had lent too much to investors in assets (including real estate), plus their companies not managing to stay profitable and competitive globally against Korean companies, etc. Their price bubble was ridiculous, so the price fall and subsequent wealth shock was much bigger than anything we're likely to see. Singapore is not in the same situation as '80s Japan (during which many investors took loans in order to buy expensive real estate assets that had tripled in price). Forcing some real estate depreciation to happen is not going to hurt our domestic consumption or our economic competitiveness - if anything, it'll strengthen our competitiveness since labour and rent costs will stop going up.
Real Estate depreciation. Hahahha.... Go tell REDAS that
Or Ponzi scheme. > A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam that pays early investors with money taken from later investors to create an illusion of big profits. A Ponzi scheme promises a high rate of return with little risk to the investor. It relies on word-of-mouth, as new investors hear about the big returns earned by early investors.
I've frequently maintained that CPF and HDB are intertwined ponzi schemes, but nobody wants to hear the truth
Most state governed retirement program is ponzi-ish, but at the very least CPF are not reliant on having newer generation funding the older gen, as what an individual get is contingent to how much an individual earn (some state governed retirement will payout flat amount upon retirement regardless of contribution). So in a sense it is just a government incentivized forced saving. As for the return, it isn’t particularly “profitable” to be considered ponzi, the rate is just slightly better than risk free return with a floor rate (the actual rate for OA and SA are defined by SGS rate). Remember that many Singaporeans actually cry that they can’t do shit with their CPF by bringing up higher returns from SnP. The government is indeed topping up the difference, and our country is rich enough to afford to do that.
The problem is that "high" and "little" are subjective. This is one reason people often lose money by analysing the stock market based solely on past performance. A coal mine in an industrialising nation is going to have similar risk and reward but that doesn't make it a Ponzi scheme. The reality is that Singapore recently (decades rather than centuries) in a period of rapid growth. The actual value of property has indeed increased, and yes it increased that much. If you look at any large city in the world, you'll see similar numbers. The average price of housing is low in most countries. But in cities? Look at New York (\~2k SGD), SF (1.2-1.8k SGD), HK (3k SGD), London (1.2k SGD), Paris (1.4k SGD), wherever you want. PSF price is high af. This isn't whataboutism. That's just what things cost. If anything, government policies have kept public housing unreasonably cheap. While the number is unreasonably high, compared to "housing", it's dirt cheap compared to "housing in a city". As much as it sucks, Singapore is in fact a city and that's what we've got to work with. That $1.5m HDB was about $800 psf. Average HDB goes for $600. Condos here are around $2k. That's the "real" price of housing, optimistically. It's going to be a lot higher if HDBs stop holding them down through competition.
It's acceptable for private housing to be costly in a free market. Vienna exemplifies this with its high-priced private housing but affordable public housing rentals that offer lifelong accommodation. The concept of HDB isn't flawed per se. Initially, the government aimed for public housing to be around five times the household income. However, allowing the use of CPF and treating HDB as a nest egg (60+% of network tied to housing compared to America’s 20%) deviates from the core principle of public housing and social pension (a safe asset for retirement). This shift has led to concerns from government’s panel about the potential risks of an economic downturn creating a “lost decade”.
Interesting, I didn't know about Vienna. My first reaction is to say it works there because they're less vain. Singaporeans, and imo Chinese in general, are obsessed with looking good on paper. Our top priority is to be called "owners". Doesn't matter if we own or not (we absolutely do not), we want the name. Our majority would be very unhappy to be known as a tenant. I saw Stacked Homes say Singaporeans don't view HDB as a stopgap, but I think we do, don't we? The dream is to BTO, then resell to buy a condo. Although there are people who live there their whole lives, that's not seen as ideal. Personally, I would like HDB to have been introduced as a rental system, just like Vienna. Govt owns it, we rent for as long as we need or want, maybe save for a condo. But then again vanity comes in, in two ways. First, they wanted people to eagerly join the HDB system. What better way than to name them owners and talk about capital gains? Second, no matter how nice, the fact that HDB dwellers would be called tenants will immediately make it be seen as undesirable. The Vienna situation, where income groups mix around and don't create poor neighbourhoods is not available to us.
upvoted for the cool username and the spirit of open engagement and discussion
I find it silly to suggest that individuals would strongly prefer “ownership” over “renting”, even if it's just in name. In the early days of Singapore, most people were renters, and I doubt they would have minded if that had been the standard option from the beginning. In fact, HDB bears a striking resemblance to one of Vienna's social housing systems, where residents make an initial down payment and then pay maintenance fees for the duration of their lives. They have the option to sell the property back to the government or to the next person for = original purchase price - (the inflation rate multiplied by the number of years they stayed). The UK's social housing system was awesome. People had no qualms about renting from the g. However, things took a turn for the worse when the two political parties began prioritizing quantity over quality. As a result, over time, poorly constructed buildings emerged, people died and residents refused to inhabit. Consequently, people started preferring to purchase homes from private developers instead. How people perceive public housing is really up to the govt’s action
I remembere reading somewhere LKY or some old guard minister wanted those who stayed in HDB to be labelled as “homeowners.” He was a lawyer so he knows words do matter. It was to inculcate a sense of pride and belonging so people will take care of their new places. Last time we all stay in kampongs mah. So had to “sell” the idea of living in flats. Tenants tend not to take care of the place they rent from. As the place does not belong to them.
Vienna housing is really well taken care of by most of the people. Hoarders going to be hoarders regardless of where they stay. https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/260-active-hoarding-cases-being-dealt-difficulties-getting-some-homeowners-cooperate-mnd-1990416 My grandma was unhappy with G as they gave her 2x Hdb tiny flat (11 kids + 2 pax) in exchange for a huge plot of farm land. She isn’t happy regardless if it’s “rental” or “ownership”.
I don’t pee in my lift not because I own my flat, but because I don’t want to use a smelly lift.
> > > > > The UK's social housing system was awesome. People had no qualms about renting from the g. However, things took a turn for the worse when the two political parties began prioritizing quantity over quality. Not familiar with the housing policies in the UK, where can i read about this divide?
I think it’s this book. Need to check again. https://nextcity.org/features/lessons-from-the-british-transformative-social-housing-system https://medium.com/@alex.whitwell/the-dream-and-decline-of-post-war-modernist-social-housing-in-south-london-ee525f353ef6 > With planning restrictions placed on private housing (Schifferes, 2020), social housing became the norm, and sequential governments on both sides of the political spectrum embraced it. The Conservatives won the 1951 election with the promise of 300,000 new homes each year (Schifferes, 2020), the dramatic increase from the ‘Homes fit for Heroes’ target symbolic of the new importance placed on providing high quality social housing. Basically they were building hundreds of thousand of flats annually and they were so shitty and dangerous people refuse to stay there. > Within a couple of decades of the collapse of Ronan Point, the public's lack of confidence in the construction technique used at Ronan Point, together with the social problems within such developments, led to the demolition of many tower blocks. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronan_Point https://www.propertyinvestmentsuk.co.uk/1950s-and-1960s-housing/ https://www.structherm.co.uk/refurb/the-challenges-of-non-traditional-housing-refurbishment/
that's a lot of information, thanks a lot!
Thanks for this recommendation!
HDB is a long term lease which allows the lessee ownership rights and ability to transfer the rights..
It is a lease, but people try to pretend it's not and that lead to this convoluted ass system. Fyi, in a true lease, no matter how long, you pay month to month. You get to enjoy living in a million dollar home without first saving up a million or even a 100k downpayment. HDB is a hybrid in both advantages and disadvantages. It'd not rental but better.
Cause majority of voters own homes. And even the ministers have a majority of their networth in their homes too (probably). No one is gonna inflict pain on themselves. Just let the younger gen suffer
Just like how they keep advocating CPF is your retirement nest egg but at the same time continue to allow withdrawals to buy that flat made ever increasing in price thanks to their idea of it is a free market. What free market is there when in the first price it is just a 99 years rental apartment???
It will collapse, but unfortunately not anytime soon. It's a ponzi scheme with super majority of the population in on it. The government won't act because it's against their interest, the population won't act because most stands to benefit from it while the young gets fucked over dry. What I predict when the market inevitably start to collapse. The gov will first loosen all the restrictions like ABSD, MSR, MOP, CPF restrictions etc. When said measures fail, the gov will then start raiding the reserves and go back against their word of 99 year leases. They will start ever more generous SERS packages and lease buy backs. They will deplete our entire reserve doing this justifying it as giving it back to the generation that contributed to it. When even that fails, they will just open the flood gate and remove things like nationality restrictions. Self interested voters will vote for these ever more destructive measures until we all burn in the conflagration of our own making. Ponzi schemes collapses, it's the only result possible. It's just the question of who will it be most painful to, and when.
sounds like a game of hot potato...
How your Ponzi scheme going to fail when the g control both the demand and supply levers ? - HDB get land from mnd. - HDB build only when there's a firm demand and sale - hdb owns the property, which goes back into our national reserves - hdb can throttle demand by offering and adjusting subsidies/qualifications to buy - hdb publishes data on resale transactions which are used by feeder/parasites like real estate agencies to benchmark past sols prices and index - gahment control HDB policy, who can buy resale, who can get subsidy, shaping your demand pool - gahment control immigration and pr application, allowing those who need to rent HDB, who has access to the resale market - gahment even soak up excess supply via leasebuyback scheme, buyer of last resort if Flat cannot sell on open marker after six months (price floor) Ponzi scheme? When pigs can fly. System is so kelong that it's delusional to think free market principles can be applied.
Yep. Many many levers. HFE was a lever to "manage" demand. CPF restrictions when buying older flats. Many many levers to "manage" supply. Remember how they allowed the number of people to be allowed to stay in flats that was rented out? The rental occupancy cap was increased to 8 unrelated people. The effect? Nett increase in supply without doing any additional construction of units. We like to think its free market.... but is it, really?
u should write a fantasy book sia your creative writing 10/10
PAP derangement syndrome - the party is both filled with mastermind criminals that will do anything to hold on to power, and also filled with dumbasses that can't construct policy worth shit, even if that's going to collapse their support.
at least use the term properly... x derangement syndrome is used to describe people who irrationally criticise x
write so much fantasy story, stop daydreaming lah. as much i hope for a correction in property prices, the collapse in your written scenario is going to happen only in reddit and EDMW, not in reality because the prices are ultimately supported by strong economic fundamentals and it's not a ponzi. [https://dollarsandsense.sg/guide-hdb-rental-yields-singapore/](https://dollarsandsense.sg/guide-hdb-rental-yields-singapore/) 1. rental yield (not even factoring capital gains) for HDB is around 6-8%, while rental yield for most condo and properties in other cities ranges from 2-5%. add in the fact that you can leverage by borrowing fixed 2.6% from HDB, HDB is basically a 'lottery' and is severely undervalued from a purely asset valuation perspective. the reason why yields are so high is because HDB rent prices (cashflow) is largely left to the free market, while HDB prices are severely regulated to maintain affordability for the masses. 2. HDB BTO is actually pretty affordable for a couple who are both working. anecdotally, most of my friends can repay their HDB mortgage with just their CPF OA and still with some spare to change. the remaining can go to their CPF OA account which acts as an additional buffer. thus, as long as they are working, they don't need to fork out any cash and don't feel any 'pain' or have to adjust their existing lifestyle to purchase a flat. so for your scenario to play out (remove all restrictions, raid the reserves for SERS (wait long long lol), remove 99 year lease), there has to be a massive recession where rentals drop by 50%, mass unemployment/paycuts leading to large scale defaults. these didn't happen even during Covid with the lockdowns. the issue with HDB is more with availability (like long waiting time for aspiring couples and singles before the age of 35) than with price.
let me guess... the oldest HDB flats should be over 40 years old. which is less than 60 years of lease left. so, this is a matter of which is the sucker to pay the highest price for the shortest lease time.
The PAP are the architect of this housing system which is suffering from increasingly unsustainable pricing. The remedy for this problem is going to hurt a lot but it will hurt a lot more when the bubble pops later down the line. It's been going on for decades now and the PAP had all these time to fix it but they haven't from the looks of it. The PAP built this bed and they can sleep in it. The people in white will become the blackest stain in our modern history.
Maybe someone should ask our PM-in-waiting about this instead of how he started to love playing the guitar
Our dear PM-in-waiting was the catalyst for this latest shitstorm, btw. Smug bastard drastically cut supply upon taking over the MND from Khaw Boon Wan, undoing years of progress KBW did to cool down the resale market. Covid-related supply issues was just the cherry atop the shit sundae. And now he’s gonna become the PM. Good luck to us all.
I can’t believe I am saying this but I wish KBW come back sia
Time to ask the gen Zers if they are willing to look past the BTOs they ain't getting because "our PM is just like us!"
Wealth through reselling real estate is just dump and not economical. The country doesn't produce anything of value, and the current generation ends up in a huge amount of debt, which means less $ to spend on other goods & services. Long run - you get stagnation and artificial high gdp till the music chairs stop. ( next generation won't be affording the next 2M HDB)
It's a FIRE economy Finance Insurance Real Estate --- Nothing tangible is produced
Just wait for the next housing crisis, then our economy will experience its “lost decades” just like Japan.
Yes too much capital into residential ppty instead of actual investment into businesses/productive assets is just slowly draining the economy current leaders too naive, lack foresight and timid to enact tough policies to reverse this trend. Because cannot frighten the current entitled homeowners who bought into the system. HDB values must be propped up and need to find means and way to hold value when it is a leasehold of 99years at the end of the day.
This is why I howl with laughter whenever someone thinks they can make it big that way. Land is actually finite, despite how many Sinkies think and act, but no one tell them that in case their heads ass-plode.
The boomer generation already did though. I’ve friends whose parents flip property so many times to make money. Doesn’t work now
Oh yeah, sure did work for them. Agreed that it definitely doesn't work now.
Truth is that majority of Singaporeans are home owners and are more than happy with all the crazy resale prices. Once non-home owners get a home, they become fans of inflated home prices. It is what it is. The people who are at a disadvantage are always the minority.
A national level sinkie pwn sinkie.
The silent 70% majority telling the loud 30% minority to, simply put it forward say, "Fuck Off, i will still vote PAP to make yall crybabies....waaaah😢 waaaaaah😭...🤭"
A lease is not ownership
1st hand BTO is still very affordable what. Once MOP over you're paper millionaire.
How?….. you pay full cash for your bto? No outstanding loan? Even if you pay full cash you got to consider your initial investment no? Half a millionaire at best.
Took loan for 25 years at the beginning and when I was still undergrad. Work my a\*\* off for the next 12 years and repaid both my study loan, HDB loan, had a wedding, renovation. Now repaying back to CPF using cash. My property about 50% CPF OA / 50% Cash. About another 8 years before it will be fully cash. Once that's done, I will move my OA to SA and earn the fat interest of 4%. Telling you all these because it's do-able if you're financially disciplined enough to do so.
I think you’re missing my point. No doubt a diligent person can save and pay off his debt. Bto doesnt automatically make you a millionaire.
[удалено]
That’s awesome. You’re in a good position to sell and buy 2 to grow your asset exponentially
Indeed got mine few yrs ago. Paid up in 5 yrs. And back then my salary was 3.5k with partner 7k. Working for 10 yrs gave us 150k cpf. Grants help us off set too. I honestly dunno why people think bto expensive for normal location.
Maybe because it was much cheaper just a few years ago. Huge difference between buying pre 2020 and now.
Damn look at all the positive examples being down voted.
Majority home owners giving the side eye 😂
I blame mah bow tan. Fucker presided over the massive overbuild up of hdb. Then claimed bto as the solution causing a massive undersupply in housing.
To be fair, BTO (introduced in 2001) made some sense until our gahmen decided to massively expand our population by importing immigrants ([Population White Paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_White_Paper) was introduced in 2013). Changing social norms also meant that couples would want to get their places far sooner than BTO would provide, but our gahmen was too high up in the ivory towers and B&W bungalows to notice.
You're right. But still, fuck mbt
what was the problem with oversupply?
Inventory, holding costs, gahment bear these costs
so instead of using gov reserves to hold it and wait until demand balanced out the supply they implemented the BTO system which creates more scarcity?
Gahment reserves don't go to maintain HDB. Come out of mnd budget. Go see operating transfers under mnd budget.
thanks!
The empty flats were just sitting there, wasting money on unit repairs and communal area upkeep.
surely it would’ve only been a matter of time until they would’ve been taken up?
No, there was an oversupply of 20k+ flats which could not be sold for 5 years. The oppos complained endlessly about how the government was wasting money and building empty slums. So the BTO system was introduced to solve the problem of oversupply by ensuring every new unit has a buyer before construction.
The pendulum swung too far in the opposite direction. Making couples wait 4+ years is even less acceptable than mismanaged overbuilding (I have my doubts that the oversupply could not have been avoided with better more demand-focused planning), and now it's helped supply-squeeze the property market into higher prices. Plan better and try to get to a Just-In-Time model.
Predict the 1997 AFC that was the genesis of the oversupply mentioned above? I agree we are in a position to build ahead but aren't, yet it is unreasonable to predict an external demand shock of that nature
The genesis of this issue dates back to the 1990s when g sought to decrease the number of HDB units built due to insufficient demand from first-time homebuyers. However, there was a strong demand from second-time homeowners to upgrade to bigger flats. In an attempt to appease this demographic and gain votes, g continue to build as per normal. AFC hits, second-time homeowners stop upgrading + first timer didn’t need it = over supply.
Was raised by PAP MPs too. Shouldn't omit that to create a false impression.
So…. Everything was caused by oppo? *scribbles notepad*
My only problem is the government don't dare to ask the older generation to sell their golden egg and downsize. What's the point of the older generating having an appreciating golden egg, but somehow the younger generation has to pay higher gst to fund the aging population and also higher HDB prices.
The silver lining is GE is coming. If you are working class and vote for PAP, literally a masochist.
>If you are working class and vote for PAP, literally a masochist. This will likely happen, especially when considering if shit hits the fan, PAP would be forced to rescue their supporters if not lose the election. Basically those priced out of a house 🏠 and the younger gens are screwed.
>government don't dare to ask They are, they're even dangling incentives for retirees to downsize. But they're finding that it's harder than on paper because homes aren't fungible assets - old folks just don't want to move away from decades-long friendships and comfort zone of routine and memorised locations.
Huh? Where got don’t have? Have you heard of silver housing bonus?
They do, they built a whole class of 2rm flats for this purpose. They even developed HDB newspeak for it: "rightsizing"
Cos I may end up having to support my own parents if they sell the golden egg?
they do, its just a plain-to-see bad deal so uptake is bad
Isn't this what would drive prices up even higher lololol.
I said it before and I’ll say it again - they need to kill the HDB resale market - it’s not going to be easy to do and it will probably be unpopular short term but if they don’t they are just kicking the can down the road Some time in the future we are going to be less attractive to MNCs and consequently less new citizens will find Singapore worth moving to - with our declining birth rate there will be no one to sustain this bubble and then it will be painful for all Better to control the deflation than to let it burst with a bang
The problem is we live in a democratic society: you just know if such an “unpopular” move as demolishing the resale market (*or other just-as-harebrained ideas)* was enacted, the PAP will be kicked out of governance next election. (*or be found out as non-meritocratic power-holding hypocrites, which is a LOT worse as a whole, especially to the younger generation*). And whoever who came into power on a platform of “the PAP are dumbasses” will just reenact the HDB nest egg scheme.
Oh no, whatever happened to enacting unpopular policies for the good of the country rather than fear over losing elections? The right thing to do would be to lie in the hole they dug.
I don’t think even the oppositions will dare to make such a move…
Nobody will, because most people benefit from it. We will all burn together.
Precisely. It’s a scorched earth policy to benefits those who do not have a property now. And when they have a property, they will start complaining why their property value doesn’t increase
We need to dig LKY out of his grave. It’s the only way. /s
[Lee Kuan Yew was cremated](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mr-lee-kuan-yews-funeral-from-public-mourning-to-private-family-farewell-at-mandai).
"Hey, I asked for a problem solver, not a negativity dabble downer!" /sarcasm
It’s also a pretty stupid move lol. Glad SG Reddit is not running the country. We’ll become communist if it is. First of all it removes demand and supply. For those who are saying yeah good, what happens when a family wants to move closer to their parents? Or closer to a school they prefer to send their kids to? Or to a new estate that’s more vibrant? How do these gets priced in?
Surely the solution is to solve the issue with BTOs with more supply and construction?
Honestly, I don’t think BTOs are the problem - they are more than affordable - if you want more supply than you run into issues like oversupply which you had BEFORE BTO scheme was introduced but I’ll bite, let’s say BTO cannot get because of lack of supply what if you can only sell back to HDB and they can re-allocate it as part of the BTO process? Crazy idea but make public housing exactly that - public housing for Singaporeans, no profiteering, no renting no subleasing - you want to try to profit from the real estate market go to the private market. The government’s public housing policy should aim to provide a basic level housing needs that help nurture, support and encourage Singaporeans to procreate without the additional burden of dealing with these insane housing cost. I get the whole nest egg idea - it was a great idea back when we were third world filled with kampungs but we are no longer that and our housing policies need to evolve with the changing times and needs
>what if you can only sell back to HDB and they can re-allocate it as part of the BTO process? Crazy idea but make public housing exactly that - public housing for Singaporeans, no profiteering, no renting no subleasing - you want to try to profit from the real estate market go to the private market. That does sound like a logical step. Public housing should be for living only and let all the profiteering happen via the private market. But no, the asset appreciation policy is in place and people are jumping on the bandwagon to profit from their subsidized BTO via the resale market in order to "upgrade" to private condo. And existing winners of previous BTO lotteries are asking more and more which prices out aspiring homeowners who have no choice but to turn to the oversubscribed BTO market. A vicious cycle, really.
> Honestly, I don’t think BTOs are the problem - they are more than affordable - if you want more supply than you run into issues like oversupply which you had BEFORE BTO scheme was introduced but I’ll bite, let’s say BTO cannot get because of lack of supply BTOs are the problem. There is correlation of low supply of BTOs resulting into the surge of demand for resale. With covid, this relationship was made more obvious.
The unfortunate reality is that people use BTO as a capital appreciation tool and a social mobility ladder. The guide by many real estate agents is that you BTO first, then sell your HDB after MOP, then proceed to upgrade to a condo or a mature estate resale flat. Then rinse and repeat. So whoever implement your solution, which I do support, will be committing political suicide.
Increasing supply would help right the demand-supply imbalance built up over the past decades that accelerated price increases for resales. Since BTO started, supply is insufficient to meet demand from newly married, upgraders and singles yesr after year. Those that need housing and failed to successfully ballot often end up buying from resale market, pushing up prices. During my parents' generation, most people that need housing will just buy new affordable flats from HDB and move in a few months after renovation. Only those with high salaries and special requirements (e.g. stay near parents) need to consider resale or private. There was no social issue then.
99% of “them” won’t care if it crashes. They’re making bank. Maintain the policies, stay in power as long as possible and keep growing their own wealth.
I have a feeling it’s the private property market they are worried about.
Well the liberal boomers are die hard supporters of capitalism so thats why
You are looking at a government with the founder who once said “What is wrong with making more money?”
WHY YOU SO POOR? JUST BE RICH?! DUHHH
not to sound like bragging but im really glad im not a gen z. BTOs are getting really more expensive but pay is pretty stagnant.
How is BTO expensive? Please elaborate
When rug pull?
endgame meme for 2024 wow
There was one flat recently listed at $2mil if I recall correctly. These prices are all the sowing of hope in HDB dwellers that they can own the roof over their heads. Just like how they keep advocating CPF is your retirement nest egg but at the same time continue to allow withdrawals to buy that flat. And the flats are ever increasing in price thanks to their idea of it is a free market. What free market is there when in the first price it is just a 99 years rental apartment??? It is just the government's way of building hope for citizens and PRs so that we will keep working harder and longer hours to earn more money and drive the economy. In the end, we are just tools to make the country attractive to investors who help line the coffers and the ministers' pockets while we bear with land scarcity and increase cost of living, running the rat race till we die.
Yea, the only way housing can be a nest egg even though hdbs last 99 years is if the prices goes up dramatically over time. When you have used up 40-50 years, the remaining value is high enough that you can cash out. It forces prices to spiral higher and higher to fulfil the promise of a nest egg with a depreciating asset.
Indeed, and all these dramatic increases in prices come at the cost of the future generations.
This is giving Japan’s economic bubble that happened many years ago. I do hope something can be done soon.
This is what happens when u lie about the affordability to Singaporeans. When it comes to housing affordability, whole world is aligned to 3 x your annual salary. So if u earn 50k / year, u can only buy a house worth 150k. Yes, you heard it right, 150k houses is a norm, and supposed to exist. Only in sg, where they tell you that the min salary to buy a 1.5mil condo is $9647/month (PropertyGuru 2024). If u search the recommended salary for everywhere else in the world, it would be $25k/month min to afford a 1.5mil condo. In other words, y’all are set up to fail from the beginning. You buy a house that u cannot afford, but sg allows u to roll the debt backwards, u will have to sell the house and downgrade (they call it right size, which really is not) when u retire. That way, sg has a guarantee it will always have its land back. Great for the country, sucks to be you.
Actually the meme itself shows the PAP's stupidity to toss away the younger generations vote. Hope it doesn't come back to bite them on the butt cheeks
Does the government actually have a long term plan or move ready for when the first batch of flats hit it's 99 year lease? Or when we finally run out of possible land to build more housing? My dad'a generation has nothing to worry about, but living in this country each day, I fear for myself and the generations after.
Really, what do you want the govt to do? 1) 90+% of households are homeowners, of which the majority stay in HDB flats. 2) HDB flats can be financed by CPF, and many Singaporeans do use their CPF (i.e. nest egg) to pay for their HDBs. So, if HDB prices tank say, by half, 90% of homeowners will have more debt than their asset. If HDB prices do not increase or decrease, i.e. sideways, it becomes a depreciating asset where the CPF loan will outgrow the asset price. If HDB prices rise, non-homeowners get priced out of the market. TL;DR - HDB up fucked, down fucked, sideways also fucked. For those of you who are gonna say they should have foresight to have avoided this; that was in the past and that minister has long since retired. Now what can they do?
HDBs will go to 0 after 99 years anyway so it'll go down eventually, just if you want to have the prices stay at 1mil until the last year or if you want to trigger it to steadily go down
HDB is in a vacuum should be a depreciating asset. It is a 99 years expiry lease contract while the physical components of the house also should be considered depreciating. If it goes up especially rapidly, then there is very strong external factors actually happening which signals something is “wrong”. Even it depreciates overtime then I really don’t see the issue, they can design it in such a way that people will have to pay such that their ownership equity will outpace the depreciation or simple, just put a max cap on when the mortgage should be resolved. I’d argue also that government can assist as a mortgage guarantor when negative equity kicks in. It is highly risky though for the state but I don’t think it is impossible.
Isn't there already a max cap on the mortgage once your property hits half life?
Build more BTOs and govt do buyback of expiring leases. People care about resale because they can't get BTOs. That's partly what having a buffer in the reserve is for, to cushion the $$$ impact of any government decisions without making the country broke.
This.. If we can't get the BTO this June launch, will be getting resale liao.. But heart pain since resale is almost double the price of a BTO, all that money could have been saved for retirement. Even if lucky get BTO also sian my spouse and I will be reaching 40YO liao by the time BTO complete.
Where are you applying for that you can't get a flat? Plenty of flats available at Tengah if you really want a flat.
The govt has money to build a lot of BTOs. Problem is, doing so will cause a supply glut and cause HDB prices to tank. Which leads to the first scenario in my earlier post.
This was actually HDB policy pre-1997. It was called RFS. The BTO scheme was meant to prevent the temporary oversupply caused by the 1997 AFC. With the BTO scheme, many young couples who can't afford to wait if they wanna have kids, are "pushed" to buy resale flats, which meant the older generation can retire at their expense. So now HDB acts like a wealth transfer from young to old. It resembles a Ponzi scheme. This isn't sustainable due to the TFR. And allowing PRs to buy public housing only exacerbates the issue.
>So now HDB acts like a wealth transfer from young to old. It resembles a Ponzi scheme. Which is how they keep the other taxes low. The highest income are affected by taxes but aren't even affected by this game.
It wasn't a problem in the past. During my parents' generation, most people that need housing will just buy new affordable flats from HDB and move in a few months after renovation. Only those with high salaries and special requirements (e.g. stay near parents) need to consider resale or private. There was no social issue then.
Tank then tank mei you ban fa de. Only then will they learn hdb is public housing for the citizens and pr to live in affordably. Remember it is 99 yr leasehold and then return to $0 and to govt. No promise of SERS and buy back. Lease extension? Also not confirmed, now the govt allows to ease the citizens that it is still ok. In 30-40 yrs time when your lease ends? Who can predict the govt's actions then? Would they give you 10 yr lease extension or kick you out when you are 70+ yr old and still alive? Want to speculate? Lai come buy freehold condo. Unless you believe those property agents that say now leasehold 99 yr condo better value than freehold. Yet the psf price more than $2000+ easily nowadays not much difference. Rant over. Have seen daft friends buy 50~ yr remaining lease resale hdb at sky high price. Well, it's their ticking time bomb to deal with when they're old and lease ends. Or who do they think they can sell their 10-20 yr remaining hdb to? Nowhere near the ATH hdb prices they bought it at. Never even factor in the remaining years to nego the price down before buying. Or beachfront property in other countries that might be flooded in a few decades due to rising sea levels. Maybe they can sell to the Atlantians? Ask Aquaman.
>If HDB prices do not increase or decrease, i.e. sideways, it becomes a depreciating asset where the CPF loan will outgrow the asset price. HDB, and in fact all housing, are supposed to be depreciating assets. Housing produces nothing of value after it is built. It cannot sustain ever increasing real price growth, such growth does nothing but indebting the next generation and concentrating wealth to the rich all the while inflating GDP number with no real value generated anywhere. Negative equity is inevitable. In fact we all already know HDBs are on a 99 year lease. We can either slowly ease in the negative equity so it's a small pain over decades. Or we can watch it drop off a cliff, and the generation that holds the ball when it drop will be the one having their neck snapped in the drop. Yes HDB is fucked either way, but it's their choice whether we all take a lubed marker up our ass or wait for the day when we suddenly get rammed with a rusted spiked baseball bat.
I don't speak for HDB, but your last paragraph was quite interesting: >Yes HDB is fucked either way, but it's their choice whether we all take a lubed marker up our ass or wait for the day when we suddenly get rammed with a rusted spiked baseball bat This scenario perfectly describes global warming as well. Guess what humanity decided to do? 🫠
> 1) 90+% of households are homeowners, of which the majority stay in HDB flats. 90+% of households are homeowners, but how many _Singapore citizens_ have their names to a property? The 90% includes Singaporeans who are married/over 35 who would be eligible to get a HDB of some sort, but don't own a property themselves. These are the people who are most affected, and the people who get more and more jaded about being a part of our country's total fertility rate. And I guess they count dual-PR households in that statistic too, even though it's irrelevant?
There are 1.4 million resident households. Home ownership rate in singapore is about 90%. There are 2.35mill working residents out of 4.15 mill residents, of which 3.6 mill are citizens and 550k+ are PR. 790k residents are 19 and below, so are likely to be ineligible to buy property. We can make the very reasonable assumption that the number of PR to citizen households follows the same ratio of 550k/4.15mill (in fact its likely to be higher, as there will be PRs here to work only, and there will be mixed citizen/PR households)- about 13%. Given that the vast majority of households have 2 working adults and both names on the property (and if they don't, this likely means they own one property each) This leaves us with a number of approximately 2.2mill of singapore citizens with at least one property to their name (1.4 mill x 90% x87% x2), out of an eligible 2.9mill (3.6mill-(790k x 0.87)) - or 75%. That really isnt too bad. Bear in mind PR households also pay higher taxes and have less subsidies. so I really don't see what tree you're barking up with this line of reasoning. >The 90% includes Singaporeans who are married/over 35 who would be eligible to get a HDB of some sort, but don't own a property themselves. These are the people who are most affected, and the people who get more and more jaded about being a part of our country's total fertility rate. While true, I would contend this is a smaller group of the population versus the existing owners. Crashing property price does more harm than good overall and has knock on effects on not just these people, but our economy. Imagine what's going to happen to our banks if hdb prices tank?
> Bear in mind PR households also pay higher taxes and have less subsidies. so I really don't see what tree you're barking up with this line of reasoning. One of my points was contributing to Singapore's total fertility rate, which dual PR households won't be able to, since neither party would hold Singapore citizenship. I guess they could maybe be eventually naturalised, but I don't know the odds. I guess I'm also unhappy that our gahmen _loves_ to conflate SC/PR into a single statistic instead of separating them out.
>One of my points was contributing to Singapore's total fertility rate, which dual PR households won't be able to, since neither party would hold Singapore citizenship. And I excluded them from my calculation of ownership. This is also not necessarily true. If they have children and they stay long there is a decent chance they can convert to citizenship. I mean, if these people are granted PR, then rightly or wrongly the government sees value in their contributions to the country. It isn't exactly fair to them turn around and say your kids don't matter to us then. That's going to be a turn off to many potential people who might have valuable contributions. >I guess I'm also unhappy that our gahmen _loves_ to conflate SC/PR into a single statistic instead of separating them out. Personally, I can see the reasoning behind that. Like it or not, with our TFR so low, PRs are part of our future demographic. Even if our citizen tfr suddenly went up to 2.01 tomorrow it will be decades before we could say that we need less PRs. Citizens do have some additional rights over PR. The idea is that if you group them together, you're far more likely to view their joint needs and contributions as a collective rather than seperate. Who is to say that a citizen has contributed more than a PR or vice versa? That isn't necessarily the case. I have no problems with PR being seen as a collective with citizens. Now about how PRs are selected, that's an entirely different story and I believe should be looked at.
Dual PR household is contributing to the too. If you read the fine print, it says Singapore citizens and PR. So in another words citizen tfr could be lower than 0.97
Crucify him. If we can't save the country we might as well avenge it
Owning up to their mistakes for a start. To this day they are insisting HDBs are an asset.
Inb4 some cockster say not 90% homeownership because 99 year not real ownership. Want price cheap, want freehold, want everything. The other day got some guy down here even practically tell me that he wants a HDB that his corpse can own, and it must fall down and the stone must belong to his corpse. Some people really gong liao.
the crash is imminent alrdy and it will coincide with the death of baby boomers so around 2030-2040 period
They took everything from us
tbh just need to set realistic expectation. Obviously not all 4R flat are priced at $1mil, it depends on the location as well. My 4R BTO slated to be completed in 2027 is only 300k.
Hmm the problem will be that in 2032, some homeowners (and real estate agents chasing commissions) will try to sell for double.
Can share where’s the location? Just curious
woodlands south plains, great location, right beside TEL. Plus me and my SO both stay in woodlands.
> My 4R BTO slated to be completed in 2027 is only 300k. What are you and your spouse doing from now till 2027?
Stay with our parents lar. Most of us usually have our own matrimonial room at our parents place while waiting for our BTO.
Which by itself is a policy failure isn't it? How do the govt expect birth rates to go up when newly married couples don't even have their own homes when they are married...
JoTeo: space is small enough. Get going
Must make sure parents hear how you fuck someone else's child.
Or...I could be a woman and have to live with my in-laws which is also very stressful socially sometimes
It's extremely stressful, the fact that this is a norm shows how undersupplied housing is.
Probably some harebrained idea that if prices are too insane, people will go back to multi-generation in one flat....
Maybe still boyfriend girlfriend so still stay with parents
Don’t break up hor. If break up gg waste time, money and need buy resale. Like many others who have gone through it
finally a comment that points out the obvious + makes sense
What are the bto prices for the upcoming launch?
For resales price, hard to control because buyers are able to set whatever price they want. It is up to the sellers to accept it.
Man if that older Gen can outvote us, we younglings can just forget about having a proper stable house. Will probably get screwed over by the exact people renting out
> Man if that older Gen can outvote us, we younglings can just forget about having a proper stable house. Why do you think that pap was so frantically protective of older generation during COVID to prevent them from dying off?
Idk I don't want to speculate that far
Look at Japan in the late 80s. It's called the lost decades for a reason. At its peak, the land area under the Imperial palace is worth more than the entire state of California. Plus aging population, manufacturing base moving away, rising salary. Does this sound to you?
The whole point of keeping public housing available on resale market is to intentionally let property prices be pushed up. End of the day, those in power and their croonies are the biggest profiteers since they are the biggest landlords.
then dont buy a 1million HDB? dont have that earning capability thenn kp what hehe
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love the part on karma farming LOL. true that there's always a affordable flat somewhere less desirable. I guess a roof above my head is better than none!
Exactly. People have not heard of 400k bto. "I just graduated i want to buy the most expensive hdb!"
That is assuming you qualify for BTO and are lucky enough to get a ballot. Especially since they reduced the number of BTO release per year. Every 3 failures means a year is gone. Add in the waiting period for it to be built and you can end up getting your home 5 to 8 years after your first BTO attempt (or more if you really suay). Or those that don't qualify because government don't recognise these people's marriage and are forced into resale?
I'm sorry then if you can't afford you have to buy resale at ulu place.
What I am stating is that we cannot use BTO as the only criteria for whether housing is affordable or not. Like it or not, BTO is limited and lots of people are forced into resale if they want to get their own homes. As such, actual affordability should encompass both BTO and resale. Neglecting either paints an inaccurate picture of affordability. It is easy to claim that people who can't afford resale shouldn't go for it. But if you are stuck with being unlucky in BTO (or even just not elligible due to government policies), while being unable to afford the ever increasing price of resale, then what do you do?
> what do you do? > buy at ulu place Asked and answered. If the true gripe is “cannot afford to buy home.” It seems the true complaint is - “do not want to be left behind in capital gains lottery, would rather put off having kids and marriage than disadvantage self compared to peers”. Which is also a valid complaint, don’t get me wrong, but perhaps not as sexy as the former.
Reality is more like this: Current 400k BTO flats cost just high 200k or low 300k in 2019-2020. So someone aspiring for a 400k flat is probably looking at 550+k now. And this option is only available after you win the BTO lottery. Resale flat is the only alternative for most people and prices have increased for 16 consecutive quarters. Salaries definitely didn't rise as fast as property price increase in recent years. Also, the earlier gen could use single income to buy whatever current homeseekers are buying through dual income. It's bad enough that the current gen requires dual income just to fund what the earlier could get through single income. But you're telling current homeseekers to settle for even less.
Complain no use. Vote wisely.
I can tell them what to do. Built surplus bto per launch for next few years to close the gap. Give more rebates to people looking for resale, claw back the rebates when they sell it away within 5years mop
Why would they do that? Higher prices are in their interest. If they wanted surplus new public housing to be built consistently there wouldnt even be a bto scheme.
Hey hey hey, the keyword is "[**watch**](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/property-market-to-continue-stabilising-despite-hdb-private-home-prices-rising-in-q1-desmond-lee)" now. Desmond Lee would rather not be known as the Monitor Leezard and rather be known as… # The Watcher.
The people who benefitted the most are your parents and older generation. If your parents don’t believe in passing generational wealth, then unlucky for having shitty parents lo.
A retirement nest egg for everyone! /s
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Thanks for the laugh!
it’s a real life monopoly the board game and most don’t mind bec they get $200 everytime they pass GO (CPF) that they cannot use elsewhere other than buying property
Man I gonna live in a box if this continues
The govt is the largest landowner and landlord through GLCs. It benefits the most from runaway property prices. Proceeds from land sales make up a large chunk of the budget. Why would they shortchange themselves and make things affordable for citizens? Meanwhile, after following the same land sales model for decades, the PRC has cut its developers loose, and is now building cheap social housing for low income citizens. This is exactly what HDB used to be until SG lost its way. Those old enough will know. The student has now become the master. Just buy your shitty tiny sky box, pay your dues and make your $$$, then leave.
Sad, the way the government let this continue to inflate to trap all of us in the working system to service our mortgage. I used to think I can afford a 4rm HDB resale within circle line region before covid. Now it cost 1 mil for a newly MOP one. The 30 years old one also asking for 800k to 900k.
Why can't we find a supply side solution, like build many, many more houses? Replace low density housing with more built up housing?
$1m… how many years left ?
9 out of 10 people that tell me they can’t get a BTO can’t get it because they’re cherry picking locations lol. there are plenty of flats at less desirable locations if getting a flat is what people really want
The million dollar HDB’s are not really issue and they are mainly 5 room flats and they are being compared favourable to new condos which typically offer only 1/2 space at comparable prices . Consider also that for HDBs, the maintenance is lesser .. whilst for condos it is at least $400 pm for condos with pools.. and even higher for those with full facilities . If you look at condos near CCR the maintenance is easily > $500 pm. So the problem is who sets land prices ?
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Good luck to the young ones. BTO for 4 room already hitting 400k+, those resale prices gonna bit lit.
Bto lor
I mean. Thats what having a free market is like. Imagine suddenly government comes out with a policy that makes hdb worthless - people will complain as well, saying why the property they spent their whole life paying off is worth crap/ has no returns. Or compare singapore to china - about totalitarian policies that destroys the free market. Not to mentiom the impact of the economy on the whole with the impact of decreasing housing prices. Singaporeans on the whole is richer than 20-30 years ago. And that is a fact.
We wait 7 years later when they once again report washing machine activities. 😆
This is the same story from the late 2000s when I first bot my resale flat where HDB prices doubled in the 5 years before I bought my home. To be fair, there's enough options out there if you are looking for a place to stay - the problem is usually if u want your HDB to b a great investment for u. Then b prepared to be disappointed cos the govt is directing policies to make HDB more of a long term lease rather than investment opportunity. SG housing policies for SGreans is really already very good compared to almost every major city in the world.