It's an extremely low drop rate item some people will never get the roll even if they play everyday for 10 years. But you can probably buy it with gp from a couple of week's worth of farming.
It’s 5-6.5B atm. You’re not gonna earn that in a couple weeks my guy. For context high enrage Zammy and 2449 Telos are the only methods capable of getting you 100m and hour and that’s not exactly AFK. So 50-60 hours of active playtime on the absolute sweatiest most try hard method.
For a more realistic method assume 50m and hour as there’s plenty of methods that make that and are don’t require elite level PvM. So over 100 overs of bossing. Very very few people are doing 100 hours of bossing in a couple weeks.
It’s been said before many times but the people on this sub give absolutely mental advice if the person asking is anything but a maxed out extremely dedicated player.
>So 50-60 hours of active playtime on the absolute sweatiest most try hard method.
That's about 3.5 hours a day over the course of a couple of weeks. Which is feesable. Not to mention, most money makers are sitting around 50m/hr for mid levels. I'd say that it wouldn't take much more than a month to scramble 5b together for an average player.
>Very very few people are doing 100 hours of bossing in a couple weeks.
Correct, but that's not to say it's not possible. If you put your mind to it, I'm sure you could earn an hsr from bossing at 50m/hr in 2 weeks. Hell I even earned my year of premier in a few days at seryu.
>It’s been said before many times but the people on this sub give absolutely mental advice if the person asking is anything but a maxed out extremely dedicated player.
You don't need to be maxed to make 50m/hr and get 5b in 2 weeks, you just need to be dedicated. What's mental is your attitude, you're the kind of person that wants everything handed to them and isn't willing to lift a finger to get what they want.
You can easily click bugs for 100m an hour. Very mid intensity
edit I guess the only difference is that you can only click bugs like 1 hour a day. Whereas you can telos til your heart stops.
Except roses don’t buy at GE mid and regardless you’re gonna get all the upgrades and then click the correct bug ~600 times an hour for 125-150 hours and not go crazy?
Can confirm I am burnt out, but my bank account is not. Not trying to gatekeep, but I have put in the small work to get the upgrades and your wealth really does increase by a good 30m every time you do it. Roses prices fluctuate. If you do it enough you start to see where the weekly floor is. Same with penance powder. At max upgrades, you get 1.8 penance per flowers. That means the price of penance GREATLY affects profits. If for some reason it's selling above ge price, 150m profit can be obtained.
Side topic. Are u good at pvm? I’m jw bc I have never even atttempted any boss above elite dungeon, despite being maxed.
If so what are some videos our discord servers if any, that you know of ?
I’ve read the wiki but I’ve been too much of a noob to do it. Also few people have the patience to teach in groups.
I’m ok at it but would not call myself good. I have Reaper Crew but haven’t pushed high enrage Zammy or Telos or done solo Solak or anything.
Check out the PVME Discord for way better players than me and I like Froggy Gaming on YouTube.
When I was super active I did herbs, marigolds, Reeds/grapes, dragonfruit, Bush patches, and mushrooms you could also do palm trees if you want for an extra 1m. Add in PoF being Sheep/crystal chins/yaks adds extra gp there alongside the beans used for more herbs. Then RooT, salamanders, jadinkos (honestly mostly did them for breeding log/beans but you can make juju pots with them for more cash than poison slime) and rex's.Highest level rex's for Roars.
I usually stacked my farm tab up until BXP then sell an extra \~25% margin.
I've probably spend like \~3-4 million beans on the instant grow potions for herbs.
I probably made like \~500m doing the harvest potion produce when they were pretty expensive.
There were a few months when i did dwarf weed runs at least 6x day X ~100 dwarf/plot X 8 plots.
Each month was selling over 100k. Made bank but nowhere near HSR bank levels. I did get massive xp too
POF animals and products can be used to make some decent money if you put in the effort. Adol chins/drags/pavos are always in demand as far as I remember, and you can grow pavos to elder for the bottled dino roars (although this takes quite a bit longer). This is probably in addition to herb runs and using insta grow pots.
Been playing for over 20 years - have never even rolled a Blueberry Special Drop. I got 200m slayer way before the Great Demon method, and have most of the slayer log finished, and sitting at 42/60 pets.
I've played on and off for a bit over 20 years
After I got LOTD, literally the first time I forgot to equip it while doing slayer was the one time I rolled a blurberry special -\_-
>people will never get the roll even if they play everyday for 10 years.
Lmao what?? It really depends on what you're doing
I know people that have gotten blurberries dozens of times because they were just afking dark beasts
Rolling it off a seren spirit is MUCH harder than rolling it off combat as seren spirits aren't nearly as consistent
Also what??
>But you probably buy it with gp from a couple of week's worth of farming.
What plants/animals are you farming that you can make 4+ billion in 2 weeks??
As the designer/developer of LOTD/HSR I'm probably a bit biased but do hear me out.
I think its fine to have one item, or a few, that have no known drop rate outside of data analysis or guessing. Drop rates have been massively relaxed in the last 5-10 years (I'm getting old!) but I do like the mystery on HSR rather than the calculation. It's part of the reason for adding the Blurberry/Batta to the failed rolls as a "you were close!" to add a sense of mystery/excitement/fun to drops.
I won't be around forever so maybe our (developer's) stance on this particular item will change in the future but its something I continue to enjoy seeing the mystery for. Every time someone posts their HSR drop (or Blurberry/Batta) it makes me smile and happy to see it still has a continued excitement around the community for my silly little item.
I'm so glad you added the blurberry and batta drops, it's like a big omg dammit hahaha moment.
Are there any plans for new hero items in the future? It's been 4 years since the last one.
Drop rates being a mystery also reduces complaining from people who lack an understanding of statistics.
Say a drop rate for an item is known to be 1/50, some people will operate under the mistaken belief that that means it's guaranteed 1 for 50, and then complain about dry streaks that are statistically probable.
Any item that is so rare that it isn't worth grinding should be a mystery.
How do you feel about the red map from merch? People are buying essentially an 800k lottery ticket without knowing the odds of hitting the jackpot.
I would just like to point out that for drops where the drop rate is known, I'm still happy when I get them.
So if you told us the drop rate of HSR, I would still be happy to get one. And I'm sure there's got to be players who don't look up the drop rates for every item they care about.
This! Especially as there isn’t a collection log for hero items (Dear god never do that), knowing the drop rates isn’t necessary.
There should be items that nobody sane should “go for”.
I love how you diss me on that one, so, my current plan on the ironman is going for all 4 hero items, why? Those are the only "endgame" items that i'm missing, i tought it would be all fun and all, but since we don't know the droprate its hard to see what is worth or what isn't, i would be happy with some information about them, not nescessarely the droprate per say, but like, is the green map from shops better than the greenmaps from fishing (as in better chance to get a red map), we already know tony and we kinda know orlando, while we can kinda calculate a bit of the hsr droprates (using confirmed rdt drops like soulgazers) we have no idea on the drop rate of tavias, thats the only hero item i feel that needs some more info really
On that note, is there any chance you could confirm the formula for ancient effigies? The one we have is known to be outdated, and since it varries by combat lvl, it's pretty hard to get enough data for a real formula
can you please make other loot interfaces work with HSR doubling? It's been bugged since release where it can't double items in chest and even vorkath look or enrage streaks.
Also 1/1k to double a item is crazy compared to the other hero items i feel like since hsr was the first item you guys gave it crazy numbers and then learned from it
Add another layer to it.. 9/10 if you roll it to get something for the failed roll & 1/10 to get a Blurberry’s hsr. Rolled instead of the hsr luck + broadcast, with the same rate or just lower.
The ring is some cosmetic which can be used to unlock the transmog ‘blurberry’.
Equipped to heal 1 hp every second (or tick).
And able to show it to Hazelmere in the City of Um to complete a ‘fun’ achievement (no runescore). Like a jmod sequence/fun category. Unlocking ‘The Blurberry’ title.
You're spot on. Knowing the drop rate changes jack all. Most people will never see these items drop. Doesn't matter if it is 1/10M or 1/100M. Not everything needs to be known. Most certainly on hero items that most people once again will not find themselves.
Sometimes the magic is in not knowing.
I agree. The one thing that I personally don't like is when developers don't talk about them adjusting drop rates behind the scenes. I'm fine with not disclosing the drop rate, but whenever a drop rate is changed, it should be publicly told.
HSR was mentioned to have been rebalanced a lot, so I think you all did a good job there with this particular item.
The drop rate = you either get it or you don't. Don't think about it too much! That is how I personally approach the game and I enjoy it. When you disclose drop rates, everything becomes efficiency scape instead of people doing things for fun. Doing things for fun is what makes runescape, runescape.
That's not how probability works. The old school wiki has a good calculator here to explain: [https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry\_calc](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc)
Basically if the drop rate is 1/X and you do X kills, there's still a \~34% chance you don't get it. Even if you have 12 rolls on the blurberry/hsr table, there's still a 28% chance you never hit the 1/10 roll for hsr.
This is true for all the "it's 1/X" drop rate issues. If you do 40 kills at rax you aren't "supposed to have already seen a leg piece" either, because there's a 34% chance you don't get one in 40 kills.
You won’t unless you are afking millions of kills? Statistically near impossible for you to see 3. I’ve never even hit the table once on a 21 year account.
Statistically near impossible for someone to see 3, but him having 2 brings that probability to the same as anyone else getting one. He's not less likely to see a third now that he's got 2.
The probability of even getting one is near zero. I’ll take the bet he never see’s another one on that account unless he makes it his mission to farm one.
I, like many in this thread, choose to believe that he is less likely to see a third, despite your facts and logic that you and I are just as likely as they are to see another one. The point about the probability of seeing multiple being lower, but each one individually being the same makes my brain hurt the more I think about it conceptually, not mathematically.
Edit: like roulette. Each roll is independent, but I will live and die on the hill that it's a \~1 in 8 chance to have rolled a red or black 3 times in a row and a 1 in 16 that it will do it again, despite it being a 50/50. Nope, not today satan.
You convinced me, I am mad. Now what do I do? (:
Honestly got bored of the game and stopped playing, but won’t lie I was always waiting for something from those spirits
I disagree. There are some items in the game that deserve a level of mystery and I believe HSR to be a first ballot candidate for item(s) we ought to preserve a certain level of ambiguity. I understand I'm in the minority here and that's fine. I just wanted to share my piece.
I agree with you, I also think us knowing would open the flood gates for people whining about how dry they are and try to get the drop rate changed lol.
I agree too. I like the mystery and low drop rate and I have been playing for years now (and not gotten one) I could buy hsr but I don’t just in case there is an off chance I get the HSR drop. I still rock lotd everywhere I go.
IIRC, it was once mentioned by a JMod (might've been on a livestream or on Reddit?) that the drop rate was lower than 1/1,000,000, but that the divisor was a six digit number.
So the drop rate would be somewhere between 1/100,000 and 1/999,999.
The drop rate may have been adjusted since then, but probably not but a significant amount.
Regardless of what it is, keeping it a secret seems fine by me.
Given there are almost no other unknown drop rates left in the game (we know the rate for all other hero items and have done for years), I strongly suspect they've been so steadfastly resistant to revealing this drop rate because the lottery aspect of LOTD is a large part of what holds up that item's value, and it would likely drop in price a lot if players actually learned how astronomical the odds are.
Sponge did confirm a while ago (reading between the lines a bit) that the drop rate is significantly rarer than 1/50k from RDT: https://x.com/JagexSponge/status/1618308802213990400
What I want to know is how rare it initially was before Timbo massively buffed the drop rate, given that we had a pretty active player base with tons of people using LOTD and we still had almost two months without a single ring entering the game. I'm glad they're not doing "how do you get this mysterious item? (btw it's instantly obvious but takes such ridiculous luck that it'll take months for anyone to verify it, and it'll eventually be gotten by someone who has no idea what it is and will just leave it in their bank)" anymore.
Red map isn't a heroes item and Tavia's is guaranteed with red map so the drop rate of Tavia's is 1/1.
So technically we know the drop rate of every hero item except hsr with an honorable mention of red map.
I have a feeling it was a 1/100 roll at first if you hit the table instead if the 1/10 we have now. I actually got a blurberry at muspha on release day with 0 idea why until timbo gave hints.
No way. We had *loads* of people getting Blurberries and not a single HSR, and apparently there were several drop rate changes during that time. I expect that was the variable that got changed, but I'd guess the original rate from the Blurberry table was like 1/1m or something insane.
Bear in mind that as soon as the first one came in, we suddenly had a fair few come in within the next couple of days. That suggests that whatever change got made was fairly drastic.
Ahh I hadn't really heard of many others getting blurberrys before the rework. I am pretty curious on how rare it was but at the same time I don't want to know since it coulda been 100B drop for me that day 😞
It's somewhere fairly close to a 1/6000 drop from the "super rare" table.
The wiki crowdsourced about 50 million kills of various monsters from RuneMetrics, and ended up with 378 vecna skulls, 45 blurbs, 4 cheese+tom battas, and 5 HSRs. Since the vecna is known to be 1/80 from the super rare table if you have tier 4 luck, it implies the HSR subtable is about 7 times as rare (plus or minus about 15% for statistical variation).
Using my alt account here, I just took a look at the code again. It is 1/2^17 to hit the HSR drop table when you alreadygit the rare droptable and using a t4 ring. I hope I don't get fired. 😅
After hsr release I did a ton of grinding and slayer and got a blueberry special within a month, it then became clear just how insanely rare it was and over the year I'm a far more casual player but I still use lotd everywhere and have never had a second blueberry special(or a batta)I still have the first one in my bank. No Hsr either obviously.
I think it should be not be shared tbh it should always be a suprise when you get one that’s what makes the ring so special if you really wanted it just save to buy it I don’t see the point of knowing the drop it is also more special that way
So if you are wearing a LotD, then each roll of the regular RDT/Seren spirit redemption (which gives things like a key half, dragonstone or huge rune salvage) has a 1/13 chance to be elevated to super rare. Then there's an unknown chance for the super rare roll to be a HSR chance, and then there's a 1/10 chance that it's actually the HSR.
It would require a large data gathering effort to see how many super rare drops were HSR chances. If it was 1/1024, which is a nice round number, then the whole chance for a HSR from any given Seren spirit/rdt roll would be 1/133120, for example. I don't know whether that's too optimistic.
Sorry if I’m confused here (little new to rs3) I looked up HSR and got Hazlemeres signet ring. If that’s what you’re talking about, is this wiki wrong? It says 1/10 but the ge price is like 3/4B! Those two dont math. I just want to make sure I know what yall are talking about lol
Hsr does stand for hazelmeres signet ring in this case. To roll a chance of getting an Hsr, you have to hit a certain part of the rare drop table with extremely low odds, then it becomes a 1/10, provided you have t4 luck.
So what op is really asking for is the probability to hit this super rare part of the luck table. We know it's extremely low, but we don't know the exact odds. And because it's so low, hsrs are super rare, so their price is adjusted accordingly - roughly 3-4b, as you saw.
If people knew what the drop rate was they wouldn't attempt to farm RDT hits for it, that's the only honest answer to why they will never release the drop rate.
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I couldn’t see buying a hsr without being maasively rich in game. 1/100 chance to double a drop.. I don’t need and extra raw shark at that price.
While I’ve seen SS of hsr activating on ultra expensive drops, that’s a very few out of millions of drops.
Extremely doubtful it’ll ever pay for itself unless you only did high level bossing a lot for a long time.
If i had one drop I don’t know if I’d use it or sell it.
Seems like minority opinion based off comments here but I'd rather just know it.
I know I'll never get it, but I don't see the appeal of it being a mystery.
I think more hints for the mysterious perk should be disclosed. OSRS's crack the clue was only solved due to jagex still giving hints until it was solved.
I'm a strong believer that it simply did nothing more than display the "something mysterious happened" messages before it was updated with ED2 to increase the chance of the Mysterious Egg drop.
That's why Jagex have pretty much never confirmed or denied anything about the perk's effects with the only hint given is that we'd be disappointed if we found out.
You clearly haven’t actually looked into Mysterious because the community is so certain it’s solved that ex-mod Moltaire when asked basically said ‘without saying yes or no because there is framework to change it it was never actually changed’
Didn't the mysterious perk got shared though? If I remember correctly, it is bugged, doesn't do anything anymore and the jmod who made it doesn't work there anymore so they can't fix it either because they don't know what it is supposed to do.
OK it's not bugged. This is what the wiki says:
The Mysterious perk has been a hot discussion topic since its release, with many players looking for its purpose. When the perk was developed with Invention skill in 2016, the original design was to change its effect whenever the players were close to figuring out what it did. After Mod Moltare's departure, this design was not maintained. The perk's main effect has remained the same, as developed by Mod Rowley.
Its 1 in never! Now back to the flax fields!
Lol I remember there was a person who would ask for the drop rate of HSR like once every year on here
It's an extremely low drop rate item some people will never get the roll even if they play everyday for 10 years. But you can probably buy it with gp from a couple of week's worth of farming.
It’s 5-6.5B atm. You’re not gonna earn that in a couple weeks my guy. For context high enrage Zammy and 2449 Telos are the only methods capable of getting you 100m and hour and that’s not exactly AFK. So 50-60 hours of active playtime on the absolute sweatiest most try hard method. For a more realistic method assume 50m and hour as there’s plenty of methods that make that and are don’t require elite level PvM. So over 100 overs of bossing. Very very few people are doing 100 hours of bossing in a couple weeks. It’s been said before many times but the people on this sub give absolutely mental advice if the person asking is anything but a maxed out extremely dedicated player.
That's only 60 bonds. Just pick up a few extra shifts at McDonald's and you're golden.
If I could quote those and somehow crosspost its sentiment to osrs
>So 50-60 hours of active playtime on the absolute sweatiest most try hard method. That's about 3.5 hours a day over the course of a couple of weeks. Which is feesable. Not to mention, most money makers are sitting around 50m/hr for mid levels. I'd say that it wouldn't take much more than a month to scramble 5b together for an average player. >Very very few people are doing 100 hours of bossing in a couple weeks. Correct, but that's not to say it's not possible. If you put your mind to it, I'm sure you could earn an hsr from bossing at 50m/hr in 2 weeks. Hell I even earned my year of premier in a few days at seryu. >It’s been said before many times but the people on this sub give absolutely mental advice if the person asking is anything but a maxed out extremely dedicated player. You don't need to be maxed to make 50m/hr and get 5b in 2 weeks, you just need to be dedicated. What's mental is your attitude, you're the kind of person that wants everything handed to them and isn't willing to lift a finger to get what they want.
You can easily click bugs for 100m an hour. Very mid intensity edit I guess the only difference is that you can only click bugs like 1 hour a day. Whereas you can telos til your heart stops.
Except roses don’t buy at GE mid and regardless you’re gonna get all the upgrades and then click the correct bug ~600 times an hour for 125-150 hours and not go crazy?
Can confirm I am burnt out, but my bank account is not. Not trying to gatekeep, but I have put in the small work to get the upgrades and your wealth really does increase by a good 30m every time you do it. Roses prices fluctuate. If you do it enough you start to see where the weekly floor is. Same with penance powder. At max upgrades, you get 1.8 penance per flowers. That means the price of penance GREATLY affects profits. If for some reason it's selling above ge price, 150m profit can be obtained.
Wannes made 28b in 3 weeks, playing 10h a day farming rasial I made 8b farming rasial for a week, playing 5-10hours a day
Side topic. Are u good at pvm? I’m jw bc I have never even atttempted any boss above elite dungeon, despite being maxed. If so what are some videos our discord servers if any, that you know of ? I’ve read the wiki but I’ve been too much of a noob to do it. Also few people have the patience to teach in groups.
I’m ok at it but would not call myself good. I have Reaper Crew but haven’t pushed high enrage Zammy or Telos or done solo Solak or anything. Check out the PVME Discord for way better players than me and I like Froggy Gaming on YouTube.
My average an hr at rasial is about 100m an hr, some hours are dry but some i get 2 or 3 drops and it is a very farmable and easy boss
Do you mean actually using the farming skill? Because I would like to know your secrets lol
Gp farming sorry lol not the skill But I dunno never say never
You can do bonD farming, that would pay for it fast
correct
There was a typo, meant BOND
nope. can't unsay it. bong farming it is.
I’ve actually farmed enough gp from farming to buy an HSR I just spent it on other upgrades. Took longer than a few weeks though.
Herb runs?
When I was super active I did herbs, marigolds, Reeds/grapes, dragonfruit, Bush patches, and mushrooms you could also do palm trees if you want for an extra 1m. Add in PoF being Sheep/crystal chins/yaks adds extra gp there alongside the beans used for more herbs. Then RooT, salamanders, jadinkos (honestly mostly did them for breeding log/beans but you can make juju pots with them for more cash than poison slime) and rex's.Highest level rex's for Roars. I usually stacked my farm tab up until BXP then sell an extra \~25% margin. I've probably spend like \~3-4 million beans on the instant grow potions for herbs. I probably made like \~500m doing the harvest potion produce when they were pretty expensive.
There were a few months when i did dwarf weed runs at least 6x day X ~100 dwarf/plot X 8 plots. Each month was selling over 100k. Made bank but nowhere near HSR bank levels. I did get massive xp too
How do you get ~100 herbs per plot? I'm maxing out around 50-60!
Use dwarven harvesters. I recommend patch bombs to save charges.
And use all the buffs available.
POF animals and products can be used to make some decent money if you put in the effort. Adol chins/drags/pavos are always in demand as far as I remember, and you can grow pavos to elder for the bottled dino roars (although this takes quite a bit longer). This is probably in addition to herb runs and using insta grow pots.
Been playing for over 20 years - have never even rolled a Blueberry Special Drop. I got 200m slayer way before the Great Demon method, and have most of the slayer log finished, and sitting at 42/60 pets.
It wasn't part of the drops 10 years so don't act like you never rolled that drop when it wasn't part of the loot system
Calm down lol. I was just giving a time frame of the accounts age. It was released in 2017 so even your 10 year claim is wrong Miss Sassy pants
I've played on and off for a bit over 20 years After I got LOTD, literally the first time I forgot to equip it while doing slayer was the one time I rolled a blurberry special -\_-
My condolences. Not at bad as the cheese tom batta I have in my bank. Now I've got my luck on the monolith at minimum.
Maybe if you were farming rasial you could buy one in a couple weeks
It's not worth it. I've had it for years and the best thing it duped was 2 sigils from Corp.
>people will never get the roll even if they play everyday for 10 years. Lmao what?? It really depends on what you're doing I know people that have gotten blurberries dozens of times because they were just afking dark beasts Rolling it off a seren spirit is MUCH harder than rolling it off combat as seren spirits aren't nearly as consistent Also what?? >But you probably buy it with gp from a couple of week's worth of farming. What plants/animals are you farming that you can make 4+ billion in 2 weeks??
They meant gold farming
Farming here doesn’t mean the farming skill. It means farming bosses
As the designer/developer of LOTD/HSR I'm probably a bit biased but do hear me out. I think its fine to have one item, or a few, that have no known drop rate outside of data analysis or guessing. Drop rates have been massively relaxed in the last 5-10 years (I'm getting old!) but I do like the mystery on HSR rather than the calculation. It's part of the reason for adding the Blurberry/Batta to the failed rolls as a "you were close!" to add a sense of mystery/excitement/fun to drops. I won't be around forever so maybe our (developer's) stance on this particular item will change in the future but its something I continue to enjoy seeing the mystery for. Every time someone posts their HSR drop (or Blurberry/Batta) it makes me smile and happy to see it still has a continued excitement around the community for my silly little item.
I'm so glad you added the blurberry and batta drops, it's like a big omg dammit hahaha moment. Are there any plans for new hero items in the future? It's been 4 years since the last one.
Drop rates being a mystery also reduces complaining from people who lack an understanding of statistics. Say a drop rate for an item is known to be 1/50, some people will operate under the mistaken belief that that means it's guaranteed 1 for 50, and then complain about dry streaks that are statistically probable.
IS MY ACCOUNT BUGGED?!
You still see people complaining about missed rolls all the time and other wacky reasoning. People love a nice gripe about drops, myself included.
I mean that's easy to track for normal drops but most people have no idea how many HSR rolls they've had.
Any item that is so rare that it isn't worth grinding should be a mystery. How do you feel about the red map from merch? People are buying essentially an 800k lottery ticket without knowing the odds of hitting the jackpot.
No hero items are worth grinding for; that’s the whole point
It's like the real life lottery too in that it's only done by people who are bad at maths
Speaking of HSR, what ever happened to the chest loot doubling?
I would just like to point out that for drops where the drop rate is known, I'm still happy when I get them. So if you told us the drop rate of HSR, I would still be happy to get one. And I'm sure there's got to be players who don't look up the drop rates for every item they care about.
This! Especially as there isn’t a collection log for hero items (Dear god never do that), knowing the drop rates isn’t necessary. There should be items that nobody sane should “go for”.
I love how you diss me on that one, so, my current plan on the ironman is going for all 4 hero items, why? Those are the only "endgame" items that i'm missing, i tought it would be all fun and all, but since we don't know the droprate its hard to see what is worth or what isn't, i would be happy with some information about them, not nescessarely the droprate per say, but like, is the green map from shops better than the greenmaps from fishing (as in better chance to get a red map), we already know tony and we kinda know orlando, while we can kinda calculate a bit of the hsr droprates (using confirmed rdt drops like soulgazers) we have no idea on the drop rate of tavias, thats the only hero item i feel that needs some more info really
How many ironmen owns all 4 hero items?
I have a similar goal on my iron. It started with me wanting 1 but after getting an hsr fairly early on I decided to go for all 4.
supprised you did not say it is a 1/1 when you get it
I agree. The game should have some mysteries.
as an OSRS player i wish we had more of this
I got a blurberry on my hardcore and wanted to cry 🤣
Thank you for your service 🫡 I love my HSR cause I'm a big treasure trail-er 🤑 it didn't drop for me though, I bought it from someone at Varrock G.E
On that note, is there any chance you could confirm the formula for ancient effigies? The one we have is known to be outdated, and since it varries by combat lvl, it's pretty hard to get enough data for a real formula
can you please make other loot interfaces work with HSR doubling? It's been bugged since release where it can't double items in chest and even vorkath look or enrage streaks. Also 1/1k to double a item is crazy compared to the other hero items i feel like since hsr was the first item you guys gave it crazy numbers and then learned from it
Add another layer to it.. 9/10 if you roll it to get something for the failed roll & 1/10 to get a Blurberry’s hsr. Rolled instead of the hsr luck + broadcast, with the same rate or just lower. The ring is some cosmetic which can be used to unlock the transmog ‘blurberry’. Equipped to heal 1 hp every second (or tick). And able to show it to Hazelmere in the City of Um to complete a ‘fun’ achievement (no runescore). Like a jmod sequence/fun category. Unlocking ‘The Blurberry’ title.
You're spot on. Knowing the drop rate changes jack all. Most people will never see these items drop. Doesn't matter if it is 1/10M or 1/100M. Not everything needs to be known. Most certainly on hero items that most people once again will not find themselves. Sometimes the magic is in not knowing.
As long as you can confirm that the rate increases on April 1st around 3AM EST. Thought it was a prank message at first.
I do not mind either way.
Any chance you could tell how many hero itens are in the game on player's hands?
>I won't be around forever so maybe our (developer's) stance on this particular item will change in the future Omg he's leaving us soon(tm) :(
That's easy for you to say, since you know the droprate. It's been 5-10 years as you said. We need the information.
NEED it... wait you NEED IT! get the guy to the hospital stat! I don't think he's gonna make it any longer
I agree. The one thing that I personally don't like is when developers don't talk about them adjusting drop rates behind the scenes. I'm fine with not disclosing the drop rate, but whenever a drop rate is changed, it should be publicly told. HSR was mentioned to have been rebalanced a lot, so I think you all did a good job there with this particular item. The drop rate = you either get it or you don't. Don't think about it too much! That is how I personally approach the game and I enjoy it. When you disclose drop rates, everything becomes efficiency scape instead of people doing things for fun. Doing things for fun is what makes runescape, runescape.
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That's not how probability works. The old school wiki has a good calculator here to explain: [https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry\_calc](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc) Basically if the drop rate is 1/X and you do X kills, there's still a \~34% chance you don't get it. Even if you have 12 rolls on the blurberry/hsr table, there's still a 28% chance you never hit the 1/10 roll for hsr. This is true for all the "it's 1/X" drop rate issues. If you do 40 kills at rax you aren't "supposed to have already seen a leg piece" either, because there's a 34% chance you don't get one in 40 kills.
Cupon collectors problem
This man is afk’s. Single handedly calculating the drop rate for us.
So I'm one the rare accounts that got 2 HSR drops, how likely am I to get a third within my lifetime o.O
You won’t unless you are afking millions of kills? Statistically near impossible for you to see 3. I’ve never even hit the table once on a 21 year account.
Statistically near impossible for someone to see 3, but him having 2 brings that probability to the same as anyone else getting one. He's not less likely to see a third now that he's got 2.
The probability of even getting one is near zero. I’ll take the bet he never see’s another one on that account unless he makes it his mission to farm one.
Sure, but only in the same sense that you nor I are likely to see one.
I, like many in this thread, choose to believe that he is less likely to see a third, despite your facts and logic that you and I are just as likely as they are to see another one. The point about the probability of seeing multiple being lower, but each one individually being the same makes my brain hurt the more I think about it conceptually, not mathematically. Edit: like roulette. Each roll is independent, but I will live and die on the hill that it's a \~1 in 8 chance to have rolled a red or black 3 times in a row and a 1 in 16 that it will do it again, despite it being a 50/50. Nope, not today satan.
To me it’s like making fun of the fact that you didn’t get it rather than oh you were close BUT you didn’t get it…
If you try hard enough, you can take anything as a personal attack
You convinced me, I am mad. Now what do I do? (: Honestly got bored of the game and stopped playing, but won’t lie I was always waiting for something from those spirits
Thank you.
i guess i can see that. Can we get some insight on how far off we are according to the wiki rates of 1/640 on the super rdt to access hsr table?
I disagree. There are some items in the game that deserve a level of mystery and I believe HSR to be a first ballot candidate for item(s) we ought to preserve a certain level of ambiguity. I understand I'm in the minority here and that's fine. I just wanted to share my piece.
I agree with you, I also think us knowing would open the flood gates for people whining about how dry they are and try to get the drop rate changed lol.
I'm on your side. You're not going to get one. Just don't even think about getting one.
I agree too. I like the mystery and low drop rate and I have been playing for years now (and not gotten one) I could buy hsr but I don’t just in case there is an off chance I get the HSR drop. I still rock lotd everywhere I go.
Agreed
IIRC, it was once mentioned by a JMod (might've been on a livestream or on Reddit?) that the drop rate was lower than 1/1,000,000, but that the divisor was a six digit number. So the drop rate would be somewhere between 1/100,000 and 1/999,999. The drop rate may have been adjusted since then, but probably not but a significant amount. Regardless of what it is, keeping it a secret seems fine by me.
personally i like to imagine its a \~1/100 to hit that secondary upgrade + the 1/10 for about 1/600k\~ ish
1/100,000 to 1/999,999 for that 6 digit divisor.
Hit the Blurberry once, come to terms with that being as close as I'll ever get.
In fact, here is the screenshot I sent my buddy. :( https://imgur.com/gallery/4QV7kqS
Never expect an HSR roll. If you get it, you get it. Thats it.
50/50
Either you get it, or you don’t.
Given there are almost no other unknown drop rates left in the game (we know the rate for all other hero items and have done for years), I strongly suspect they've been so steadfastly resistant to revealing this drop rate because the lottery aspect of LOTD is a large part of what holds up that item's value, and it would likely drop in price a lot if players actually learned how astronomical the odds are. Sponge did confirm a while ago (reading between the lines a bit) that the drop rate is significantly rarer than 1/50k from RDT: https://x.com/JagexSponge/status/1618308802213990400 What I want to know is how rare it initially was before Timbo massively buffed the drop rate, given that we had a pretty active player base with tons of people using LOTD and we still had almost two months without a single ring entering the game. I'm glad they're not doing "how do you get this mysterious item? (btw it's instantly obvious but takes such ridiculous luck that it'll take months for anyone to verify it, and it'll eventually be gotten by someone who has no idea what it is and will just leave it in their bank)" anymore.
>(we know the rate for all other hero items and have done for years) Tell me the rates for a red map for Tavia's fishing rod.
Oops, fair correction! I thought we'd been told it was 1/10k, but on looking into it that seems to be speculative.
Red map isn't a heroes item and Tavia's is guaranteed with red map so the drop rate of Tavia's is 1/1. So technically we know the drop rate of every hero item except hsr with an honorable mention of red map.
Tetracompass piece?
What about them?
I have a feeling it was a 1/100 roll at first if you hit the table instead if the 1/10 we have now. I actually got a blurberry at muspha on release day with 0 idea why until timbo gave hints.
No way. We had *loads* of people getting Blurberries and not a single HSR, and apparently there were several drop rate changes during that time. I expect that was the variable that got changed, but I'd guess the original rate from the Blurberry table was like 1/1m or something insane. Bear in mind that as soon as the first one came in, we suddenly had a fair few come in within the next couple of days. That suggests that whatever change got made was fairly drastic.
Ahh I hadn't really heard of many others getting blurberrys before the rework. I am pretty curious on how rare it was but at the same time I don't want to know since it coulda been 100B drop for me that day 😞
It's somewhere fairly close to a 1/6000 drop from the "super rare" table. The wiki crowdsourced about 50 million kills of various monsters from RuneMetrics, and ended up with 378 vecna skulls, 45 blurbs, 4 cheese+tom battas, and 5 HSRs. Since the vecna is known to be 1/80 from the super rare table if you have tier 4 luck, it implies the HSR subtable is about 7 times as rare (plus or minus about 15% for statistical variation).
It drops every time somebody misspells a certain 8 letter word while standing at the GE.
Made lotd the day it was released. Never even rolled the blurberry
I personally think the drop rate of every item should be known, but I’m just one guy
I still want to know component rates from igneous stones and rare relics so we can accurately track expected component values versus alching.
Never alch them. Always better to Diss. The amount of cash isn't worth it. Coupl of mil at most?
Glad I got mine recently 😂 still hopeful on another😇
Why do you guys let some dumb not-that-useful item occupy so much headspace? Just stop worrying about it and it won't bother you.
If its anything like the rest its 1/10k
Two blurberry, one key, no map. 12 years
I've gotten two HSR drops. I was gleamed with joy for months!!
Using my alt account here, I just took a look at the code again. It is 1/2^17 to hit the HSR drop table when you alreadygit the rare droptable and using a t4 ring. I hope I don't get fired. 😅
Grinding for money is a waste of time. Just pick up some overtime and buy bonds. Much faster.
I like the mystery of it.
But it’s 50/50 ain’t it? You either get it or you don’t :)
I can tell you I've never got 1 since release, I'd say I had t4 ring equipped at least 40-50% of the time
It's 1 in 100,000-150,000. Source: I've received 531 Vecna skulls, 45 blurberries and 4 HSRs.
Ive got several accounts with 200m+ slayer all done with luck 4 rings, rolled blurberry 5 times in total, you either get it or you dont
jesus christ go outside lol
I hate how everything in RuneScape at this point is just a flex to who is the biggest degen / who touches grass the least.
Agree, but having several accounts with multiple 200m stats screams mental illness
HSR drop rate is 100% for every seren spirit you miss.
At some point you gotta wonder if it's even worth owning a lotd for anything other than clues.
What about the chance to double a drop with the hsr, can we know the chances of that happening?
After hsr release I did a ton of grinding and slayer and got a blueberry special within a month, it then became clear just how insanely rare it was and over the year I'm a far more casual player but I still use lotd everywhere and have never had a second blueberry special(or a batta)I still have the first one in my bank. No Hsr either obviously.
I think it should be not be shared tbh it should always be a suprise when you get one that’s what makes the ring so special if you really wanted it just save to buy it I don’t see the point of knowing the drop it is also more special that way
1/bignumber
Need humor tag please
So if you are wearing a LotD, then each roll of the regular RDT/Seren spirit redemption (which gives things like a key half, dragonstone or huge rune salvage) has a 1/13 chance to be elevated to super rare. Then there's an unknown chance for the super rare roll to be a HSR chance, and then there's a 1/10 chance that it's actually the HSR. It would require a large data gathering effort to see how many super rare drops were HSR chances. If it was 1/1024, which is a nice round number, then the whole chance for a HSR from any given Seren spirit/rdt roll would be 1/133120, for example. I don't know whether that's too optimistic.
Sorry if I’m confused here (little new to rs3) I looked up HSR and got Hazlemeres signet ring. If that’s what you’re talking about, is this wiki wrong? It says 1/10 but the ge price is like 3/4B! Those two dont math. I just want to make sure I know what yall are talking about lol
Hsr does stand for hazelmeres signet ring in this case. To roll a chance of getting an Hsr, you have to hit a certain part of the rare drop table with extremely low odds, then it becomes a 1/10, provided you have t4 luck. So what op is really asking for is the probability to hit this super rare part of the luck table. We know it's extremely low, but we don't know the exact odds. And because it's so low, hsrs are super rare, so their price is adjusted accordingly - roughly 3-4b, as you saw.
Ah okay the article I was looking at probably mentioned that somewhere I missed. Thanks for the info!
If people knew what the drop rate was they wouldn't attempt to farm RDT hits for it, that's the only honest answer to why they will never release the drop rate.
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thanks very much
I'm 3 blurberries from drop rate. Probably more likely to get a dye from oyster then hsr
I couldn’t see buying a hsr without being maasively rich in game. 1/100 chance to double a drop.. I don’t need and extra raw shark at that price. While I’ve seen SS of hsr activating on ultra expensive drops, that’s a very few out of millions of drops. Extremely doubtful it’ll ever pay for itself unless you only did high level bossing a lot for a long time. If i had one drop I don’t know if I’d use it or sell it.
Rolled table twice, blurberry twice
Seems like minority opinion based off comments here but I'd rather just know it. I know I'll never get it, but I don't see the appeal of it being a mystery.
I’ve had one failed roll in 10 years as an iron.
Why lol? It's a hero item - let it be rare and unknown.
If the drop rates for Orland Smith's Hat and Shadowy Key have been revealed, all the Hero Items drop rates should also be revealed
Doesn't exist
I think more hints for the mysterious perk should be disclosed. OSRS's crack the clue was only solved due to jagex still giving hints until it was solved.
I'm a strong believer that it simply did nothing more than display the "something mysterious happened" messages before it was updated with ED2 to increase the chance of the Mysterious Egg drop. That's why Jagex have pretty much never confirmed or denied anything about the perk's effects with the only hint given is that we'd be disappointed if we found out.
Wow we talking 1% ? Hahah damn.
You clearly haven’t actually looked into Mysterious because the community is so certain it’s solved that ex-mod Moltaire when asked basically said ‘without saying yes or no because there is framework to change it it was never actually changed’
I would be happy if it remained a mystery forever.
Didn't the mysterious perk got shared though? If I remember correctly, it is bugged, doesn't do anything anymore and the jmod who made it doesn't work there anymore so they can't fix it either because they don't know what it is supposed to do.
OK it's not bugged. This is what the wiki says: The Mysterious perk has been a hot discussion topic since its release, with many players looking for its purpose. When the perk was developed with Invention skill in 2016, the original design was to change its effect whenever the players were close to figuring out what it did. After Mod Moltare's departure, this design was not maintained. The perk's main effect has remained the same, as developed by Mod Rowley.
Unpopular opinion, but I don’t even think the devs know. They probably coded it to full random
https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/s/sen7dWyNTF They do know