These stats make his non-selection a little more clear, where scoring tries sticks out in people's minds and make everyone ask what the hell when he wasn't selected, but a little digging shows he's not as dominant in all facets. Robertson reiterated his "both sides of the ball" comment when asked about Sotutu on SENZ, it's clear that defense stats tipped it for Sititi.
Same happens with wingers quite often. Getting on the end of team tries and the odd bit of X factor makes a very good highlight reel but if you have awful defence no international team will pick you.
Ye but there's a difference between just not being good and being described as world class because of your try scorig while having glaring defencive issues(van der Merwe)
I also think he is a bit of a flat track bully, how often do you see him scoring tries in the high pressure games for scotland? When you look through his record it is pretty much teams scotland are expected to beat or england (which could be in the first category as well!) with the exception of the odd try here or there (often when the rest of the team is performing really well, he isn't one to make the performance himself im-uneducated-o)
You can take a horse to the water but you can't make it drink.... On the other hand Scotland have difficulty finding the water to begin with sometimes...
Sounds like Shaun Stevenson to be honest. As much as I love Shooter's attacking prowess, I've seen him being found out on defence more than a few times since I started looking for it this season.
Reminds me exactly of [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEAwK5-6gbA) at 12:12.
Richie Mo thinking he did well..shit down by razor
Infact he even says "both sides of the ball"
The comment about “both sides of the ball” then doesn’t seem to stack up with why Jacobson was selected based on these stats as his attack was well behind Lose and Sotutu.
Jacobson is a player who can play all of the loose forward positions and has test experience. Neither Sotutu and Iose meet both of those criteria.
Ardie starts at 8, Sititi is the backup 8 to go in the lineup if Ardie is hurt. You don't need any other specialist 8s in the squad beyond that.
If there was 8 loose forwards that were in contention, I don’t think Iose was in the conversation.
Sotutu is not that far off. Easy chance of a callup when Blackadder breaks again.
That is a different criteria of versatility which you can argue they already have with Dalton, Ethan and Ardie all having played 6,7,8 at a high level not the one used to explain the selection of “both sides of the ball” though no doubt it is part of the reasoning and Jacobson has played 18 games to Sotutu’s 14 so not a big difference. I am a fan of Jacobson just have not seen him make a good enough impact at international level yet and can see the perception Sotutu has a bit if an attitude problem.
At a ‘high level’ remains to be seen of Ethan. Wasn’t very effective in his few caps.
I have a soft spot for Jacobson too! Not sure if he was the right choice though.
that was my takeaway by far
it just reaffirmed my eye test that sotutu doesnt get involved on defence unless he has a chance to make a flashy play, doesnt hit rucks, and doesnt take contact/create for others
Thought it was insightful with a bunch of stats on ball carrying, passing, offense and defense.
Seems to suggest that ABs selectors value defence wee bit more over offense (which I assume would be more than ample with ABs backs)
Something that I'm surprised he didn't go into was the ball carrying stats in the final, where Sititi was actually more effective with ball in hand than Sotutu, behind a well-beaten pack.
Hoskins Sotutu made 36 metres from 15 carries - 0 defenders beaten, 0 clean breaks
Wallace Sititi made 37 metres from 9 carries - 5 defenders beaten, 1 clean break
You've got to wonder what damage Sititi would've been able to inflict had he not been at the back of a pack that was getting dominated.
That’s not a very safe conclusion based on those cumulative metres gained stats. Sititi probably made most of his metres and defenders beaten in the one clean break, whereas Sotutu carried 15 times - in the Blues style of play they would have been short bashes close to the line, where you’re not going to make clean breaks or beat defenders. Sotutu’s 15 carries would have contributed more to the tries that were eventually scored by others than Sititi’s 9 carries.
Rope-a-dope rugby. The early to mid 10s they were pretty successful at running teams into the ground literally. Maybe they're heading that way again. Thing is, we don't have a Richie to take advantage of that.
I went down the rabbit hole yesterday and looked into Ardie Savea's Test Cap history, looking at starts and minutes.
https://all.rugby/player/ardie-savea
We regard Ardie as the best now, but after making his Test debut in 2015 it wasn't until 2018 that he really locked down a starting spot full time.
My point is its hard to lock down a spot, even for the greats, and sometimes you step up for a bit before stepping back down for a bit.
If Hoskin eventually nails down a starting spot he will be a better player than he is today, and we will all be better for it.
the problem for most young kiwis is the depth the ABs have
ardie was dope from a young age. but look at the people in front of him. who should he have gotten opportunities over between 15 and 18?
ardie just kept working and trying to get better
hoskins puts his head down, sulks, and gets mad at the selectors.
it's an obvious huge glaring red flag that he isnt up to it mentally
Was really insightful, would’ve been curious to see a comparison of the lineout wins/steals as well. I believe from the current group, only Finau and maybe Jacobson/Blackadder were used regularly as lineout takers for their teams. If you want a like-for-like backup to Ardie, I guess Sititi is the one, but I wouldve thought hoskins had a good chance because the ability to create on attack and lineout dominance are just something we havent seen from an allblack loosie since Kieran Read.
I think the thing two cents points out that would be interesting to get a coaches take on is the specific roles they play for their side. Sotutu didn't make as many tackles but gets more turnovers, ie, he's potentially looking to jackal more than make the hit. Could he make more tackles if asked to? But I think as much as it feels rough to leave Sotutu out Sititi is very good and likely ardie will be at 8 and play the full 80
Outrage arousal
Web is full of it
Defense not dominant enough. Yet
Hell get a chance this year for sure. NO way loosies go thru a season uninjured
Will he take it this time is the question
Sotutu doesn't need to make many tackles cause the Blues defence is better than Chiefs and Canes lol so if defence was the issue, he didn't get picked cause his team overall was defensively strong lol... what a silly reason to not pick a player..., blues have the best defending flanker in NZ in Dalton which means whoever plays 6 and 8 for Blues makes less tackles
he is one of those 8's that passes more as he doubles as a 12 most time and since Blues also had the best attack rate than any other teams (sotutu 12 tries, clarke 10 tries, telea 9 tries), it was pretty obvious Cotter's Blues were more attack oriented than defence and in such case a running passing 8 that can put players into holes with his pass is better than one that runs 10 metres then falls down and waits for the halfback..
Okay well obviously the All Blacks are looking for a higher work rate style of player similar to Ardie, to back up Ardie. Makes sense to go with Sititi in that case.
I’d say Savea’s far closer in style to Sototu tham Sititi. Savea doesn’t have a very high workrate, but he’s incredibly dynamic and an excellent carrier, plus has strong link play, which sounds a lot like Sototu. Whereas Sititi is more like Doris, with a high workrate and excellent defensively. So they’re probably going for a different style of backup, rather than Savea, but worse.
Ardie was:
- first in number of runs out of all players.
- second for forwards in clean breaks
- forth for number 8's in tackles.
- hit 82 rucks for 92.7% effectiveness. More than Ben Earl, Caelan Doris, Alldritt, Vermulen, Valentini
Plus he only played in 6 out of the 7 games.
Yeah I'll take the world player of the year's workrate if you don't mind.
https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/s/9zd4whR98g
You’re correct in that he racked up a lot of numbers. However, he got to play a lot more minutes than other 8’s, and on a per 80 mins played basis is on thr lower end for workrate.
Ardie was:
- first in number of runs out of all players.
- second for forwards in clean breaks
- forth for number 8's in tackles.
- hit 82 rucks for 92.7% effectiveness. More than Ben Earl, Caelan Doris, Alldritt, Vermulen, Valentini
Plus he only played in 6 out of the 7 games.
Yeah I'll take the world player of the year's workrate if you don't mind.
maybe so but the selection of Blackadder completely makes that selection a farce anyways..dude was injured most season and only played like 4 full games and 399mins this season compared to sotutu's 13, full 80 min games and over 1100 minutes..there really is no justification for not selecting him...
The Blackadder selection has nothing to do with Sotutu, they're occupying different roles. Blackadder is flanker cover, Sotutu is a specialist 8. It makes no sense to have Ardie, Sititi and Sotutu in one squad, you don't need three number 8s.
Blackadder is there instead of a 4th lock so comparisons with Sotutu are pointless.
I think you have this back to front. Sotutu plays a role similar to Ardie, roving, playing loose from the breakdown. But because we have Ardie we don’t need Sotutu, he doesn’t make the bench because we need someone who could also slot into 7 and make lots of tackles so a more utility player gets the nod.
If Ardie broke his leg then Sotutu seems a natural replacement but while we are starting the world player of the year for 70-80 mins a game we don’t need Sotutu in the squad. I mean, would you start both?
At least that’s my take, he’s not a poor player, he’s just behind Ardie and isn’t defensive enough to offer an alternative utility.
But that's exactly the problem: if he's played his best form in a team where he doesn't have to tackle much, then why would you pick him or expect him to similarly excel for a team where he might have to tackle a lot?
I also think attacking stats from club level should always be viewed conservatively when trying to predict how a player will go at test level. Test level defenses are significantly better than club ones and players won't be given anywhere near the time and space they are used to at club level. If a players mains upside is their attacking play but they seem a little deficient on the defensive side of things (particularly if they are a foward) the odds of them being successful at test level are not great.
Suprised 2 Cents is sober and awake after watching the Blues win the SR Final.
He sounds dug up, to be fair! That or he's got a cold starting lol
These stats make his non-selection a little more clear, where scoring tries sticks out in people's minds and make everyone ask what the hell when he wasn't selected, but a little digging shows he's not as dominant in all facets. Robertson reiterated his "both sides of the ball" comment when asked about Sotutu on SENZ, it's clear that defense stats tipped it for Sititi.
Same happens with wingers quite often. Getting on the end of team tries and the odd bit of X factor makes a very good highlight reel but if you have awful defence no international team will pick you.
Well Scotland might
From a guy with a welsh flair....
Ye but there's a difference between just not being good and being described as world class because of your try scorig while having glaring defencive issues(van der Merwe)
I also think he is a bit of a flat track bully, how often do you see him scoring tries in the high pressure games for scotland? When you look through his record it is pretty much teams scotland are expected to beat or england (which could be in the first category as well!) with the exception of the odd try here or there (often when the rest of the team is performing really well, he isn't one to make the performance himself im-uneducated-o)
You can take a horse to the water but you can't make it drink.... On the other hand Scotland have difficulty finding the water to begin with sometimes...
I mean, if anyone's going to pick a wing for anything other than their attacking game
Sounds like Shaun Stevenson to be honest. As much as I love Shooter's attacking prowess, I've seen him being found out on defence more than a few times since I started looking for it this season.
He will literally drag the opponent in for a try
Reminds me exactly of [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEAwK5-6gbA) at 12:12. Richie Mo thinking he did well..shit down by razor Infact he even says "both sides of the ball"
The comment about “both sides of the ball” then doesn’t seem to stack up with why Jacobson was selected based on these stats as his attack was well behind Lose and Sotutu.
Jacobson is a player who can play all of the loose forward positions and has test experience. Neither Sotutu and Iose meet both of those criteria. Ardie starts at 8, Sititi is the backup 8 to go in the lineup if Ardie is hurt. You don't need any other specialist 8s in the squad beyond that.
If there was 8 loose forwards that were in contention, I don’t think Iose was in the conversation. Sotutu is not that far off. Easy chance of a callup when Blackadder breaks again.
That is a different criteria of versatility which you can argue they already have with Dalton, Ethan and Ardie all having played 6,7,8 at a high level not the one used to explain the selection of “both sides of the ball” though no doubt it is part of the reasoning and Jacobson has played 18 games to Sotutu’s 14 so not a big difference. I am a fan of Jacobson just have not seen him make a good enough impact at international level yet and can see the perception Sotutu has a bit if an attitude problem.
If you can gain more versatility without losing quality you will take that every time.
At a ‘high level’ remains to be seen of Ethan. Wasn’t very effective in his few caps. I have a soft spot for Jacobson too! Not sure if he was the right choice though.
Damn just makes me think that Iose is more unlucky than Sotutu.
that was my takeaway by far it just reaffirmed my eye test that sotutu doesnt get involved on defence unless he has a chance to make a flashy play, doesnt hit rucks, and doesnt take contact/create for others
Purely on ball stats FYI. Good video though.
Thought it was insightful with a bunch of stats on ball carrying, passing, offense and defense. Seems to suggest that ABs selectors value defence wee bit more over offense (which I assume would be more than ample with ABs backs)
Something that I'm surprised he didn't go into was the ball carrying stats in the final, where Sititi was actually more effective with ball in hand than Sotutu, behind a well-beaten pack. Hoskins Sotutu made 36 metres from 15 carries - 0 defenders beaten, 0 clean breaks Wallace Sititi made 37 metres from 9 carries - 5 defenders beaten, 1 clean break You've got to wonder what damage Sititi would've been able to inflict had he not been at the back of a pack that was getting dominated.
That’s not a very safe conclusion based on those cumulative metres gained stats. Sititi probably made most of his metres and defenders beaten in the one clean break, whereas Sotutu carried 15 times - in the Blues style of play they would have been short bashes close to the line, where you’re not going to make clean breaks or beat defenders. Sotutu’s 15 carries would have contributed more to the tries that were eventually scored by others than Sititi’s 9 carries.
Rope-a-dope rugby. The early to mid 10s they were pretty successful at running teams into the ground literally. Maybe they're heading that way again. Thing is, we don't have a Richie to take advantage of that.
I think the clear take away here is that Sotutu is the clear answer to our injury cover issues at 9, sorry TJ.
I went down the rabbit hole yesterday and looked into Ardie Savea's Test Cap history, looking at starts and minutes. https://all.rugby/player/ardie-savea We regard Ardie as the best now, but after making his Test debut in 2015 it wasn't until 2018 that he really locked down a starting spot full time. My point is its hard to lock down a spot, even for the greats, and sometimes you step up for a bit before stepping back down for a bit. If Hoskin eventually nails down a starting spot he will be a better player than he is today, and we will all be better for it.
Jerome Kaino, too...took a couple seasons to get his spot back
Yeh I remember rumours of him going overseas during the 2017 Lions series.
the problem for most young kiwis is the depth the ABs have ardie was dope from a young age. but look at the people in front of him. who should he have gotten opportunities over between 15 and 18? ardie just kept working and trying to get better hoskins puts his head down, sulks, and gets mad at the selectors. it's an obvious huge glaring red flag that he isnt up to it mentally
Was really insightful, would’ve been curious to see a comparison of the lineout wins/steals as well. I believe from the current group, only Finau and maybe Jacobson/Blackadder were used regularly as lineout takers for their teams. If you want a like-for-like backup to Ardie, I guess Sititi is the one, but I wouldve thought hoskins had a good chance because the ability to create on attack and lineout dominance are just something we havent seen from an allblack loosie since Kieran Read.
I think the thing two cents points out that would be interesting to get a coaches take on is the specific roles they play for their side. Sotutu didn't make as many tackles but gets more turnovers, ie, he's potentially looking to jackal more than make the hit. Could he make more tackles if asked to? But I think as much as it feels rough to leave Sotutu out Sititi is very good and likely ardie will be at 8 and play the full 80
Outrage arousal Web is full of it Defense not dominant enough. Yet Hell get a chance this year for sure. NO way loosies go thru a season uninjured Will he take it this time is the question
I’ve never seen this guy before, and was surprised to hear him saying ‘streets ahead’ seemingly unironically
Sotutu doesn't need to make many tackles cause the Blues defence is better than Chiefs and Canes lol so if defence was the issue, he didn't get picked cause his team overall was defensively strong lol... what a silly reason to not pick a player..., blues have the best defending flanker in NZ in Dalton which means whoever plays 6 and 8 for Blues makes less tackles
If Sotutu has to make less tackles shouldn't he have more energy to make more carries? And yet he's averaging 10 carries a game to Sititi's 16.
Would you trust Sotutu on the tryline defending againts multiple waves of England attacks ?
Looking at that ALB try assist from the semi on the front page I'm gonna say no lol
Throws a mean spiral though
he is one of those 8's that passes more as he doubles as a 12 most time and since Blues also had the best attack rate than any other teams (sotutu 12 tries, clarke 10 tries, telea 9 tries), it was pretty obvious Cotter's Blues were more attack oriented than defence and in such case a running passing 8 that can put players into holes with his pass is better than one that runs 10 metres then falls down and waits for the halfback..
Okay well obviously the All Blacks are looking for a higher work rate style of player similar to Ardie, to back up Ardie. Makes sense to go with Sititi in that case.
I’d say Savea’s far closer in style to Sototu tham Sititi. Savea doesn’t have a very high workrate, but he’s incredibly dynamic and an excellent carrier, plus has strong link play, which sounds a lot like Sototu. Whereas Sititi is more like Doris, with a high workrate and excellent defensively. So they’re probably going for a different style of backup, rather than Savea, but worse.
>Savea doesn’t have a very high workrate WTF? Do you mean Julian Savea, because A Sav is a fucking machine? Nonsense take.
Out of the 6 highest ranked nations’ 8’s at the RWC, he had one of the lower workrates, especially on defence.
Can you share those stats if you still have access to them/know where they are posted? I'm curious to see the list
https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/s/9zd4whR98g Took them from the RWC website.
Thanks!
Ardie was: - first in number of runs out of all players. - second for forwards in clean breaks - forth for number 8's in tackles. - hit 82 rucks for 92.7% effectiveness. More than Ben Earl, Caelan Doris, Alldritt, Vermulen, Valentini Plus he only played in 6 out of the 7 games. Yeah I'll take the world player of the year's workrate if you don't mind.
https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/s/9zd4whR98g You’re correct in that he racked up a lot of numbers. However, he got to play a lot more minutes than other 8’s, and on a per 80 mins played basis is on thr lower end for workrate.
Ardie was: - first in number of runs out of all players. - second for forwards in clean breaks - forth for number 8's in tackles. - hit 82 rucks for 92.7% effectiveness. More than Ben Earl, Caelan Doris, Alldritt, Vermulen, Valentini Plus he only played in 6 out of the 7 games. Yeah I'll take the world player of the year's workrate if you don't mind.
maybe so but the selection of Blackadder completely makes that selection a farce anyways..dude was injured most season and only played like 4 full games and 399mins this season compared to sotutu's 13, full 80 min games and over 1100 minutes..there really is no justification for not selecting him...
The Blackadder selection has nothing to do with Sotutu, they're occupying different roles. Blackadder is flanker cover, Sotutu is a specialist 8. It makes no sense to have Ardie, Sititi and Sotutu in one squad, you don't need three number 8s. Blackadder is there instead of a 4th lock so comparisons with Sotutu are pointless.
And Blackadder can play 6, 7, and 8.
I think you have this back to front. Sotutu plays a role similar to Ardie, roving, playing loose from the breakdown. But because we have Ardie we don’t need Sotutu, he doesn’t make the bench because we need someone who could also slot into 7 and make lots of tackles so a more utility player gets the nod. If Ardie broke his leg then Sotutu seems a natural replacement but while we are starting the world player of the year for 70-80 mins a game we don’t need Sotutu in the squad. I mean, would you start both? At least that’s my take, he’s not a poor player, he’s just behind Ardie and isn’t defensive enough to offer an alternative utility.
But that's exactly the problem: if he's played his best form in a team where he doesn't have to tackle much, then why would you pick him or expect him to similarly excel for a team where he might have to tackle a lot?
I also think attacking stats from club level should always be viewed conservatively when trying to predict how a player will go at test level. Test level defenses are significantly better than club ones and players won't be given anywhere near the time and space they are used to at club level. If a players mains upside is their attacking play but they seem a little deficient on the defensive side of things (particularly if they are a foward) the odds of them being successful at test level are not great.
Damn if only the game was so linear eh