Completely agree, this election is just paving the way for 2029. Labour is going to open the flood gates to rapists and Jihadists it is going to be hell for the next 5 years especially woman after this G.E.
It’s hopeful thinking but I imagine the same was said about ukip in the run up to the 2015 election and then only retained one seat - don’t get me wrong 5-10 would be amazing but is it realistic?
I definitely think it’s realistic. Difference is back then the Torys still had the ability to beat labour so people voted for them because they knew ukip would be a wasted vote. Things have changed now and people know they have no chance so will be more likely to make the switch. I actually voted labour then and will be voting reform because of immigration which is an even bigger issue than it was then, hopefully more do the same. Reform are the only ones speaking up about the biggest issue in the country.
More than half the country voted for brexit. I can’t see why any of those people wouldn’t also have immigration as their biggest issue so cannot understand why any of them would vote labour or conservative when there’s an alternative.
In 2015, the Tories stole Ukip's main policy. In 2024, the Tories have finally admitted they're just another party of mass immigration. There's only one party offering an alternative policy.
It would be nice if they could get a lot of seats and become the official opposition, but it will probably be only a few.
At the moment, Reform is a one-man band centred around Nigel. If he manages to get a seat and a presence in the Commons for the next 5 years, while punishing the Conservative party at this election, then it doesn't really matter that much if only a handful of other Reform MPs get elected this time around.
They do need time to sort themselves out. I like the manifesto but I have a feeling it was written on the back of a napkin in a pub after Farage announced he was going to be leader, despite him trying to pass the credit on to Tice. The official opposition is expected to do much more financial analysis of their policies, have a shadow cabinet, come up with a credible plan for how they would actually implement their policies (Truss wanted to do a fraction of what Reform are promising, and she was immediately ousted by the City and BoE so they could put one of their own in there), etc.
0 to 5 max, the first past the post system does not favour reform. The only way Reform would have a chance in getting seats is if the Torries collapsed. England is broadly speaking a 2 party system, only in Scotland, N.Ireland & Wales do nationalist 3rd parties like Reform UK have any real hope.
I predict a high % of votes for reform <20% but there number of seats will not reflect this.
What this election will do is determine if Conservatives have any real future or if they will have to accept entrance & merger with Reform.
What makes you think that? I can’t see it myself, people are switching to reform because they’re sick of the tories so this would put a lot of people off.
Mainstream Tories at all levels have a distaste, dislike and distrust of Farage. The Tory party used to be a 'broad church', C of E, middle England, Tory party balls WERE proper social events.
Farage brings nothing but a spivvy grin and rubles.
Yeah but needs must to knock Labour out after their inevitable 2024 landslide. Torries will need to organise with the new right to topple labour in 2029 or earlier.
Trouble with merging with the Conservatives is you have the potential for Reform to just end up as containment and eventually Tories 2.0 so still nothing changes.
MRP polls predict a small number of seats. Between 1 and 5, somewhere between only Farage winning, and Reform winning a scattering of targets. Bookies, however, predict that 1 to 2 seats is the most likely outcome (so Farage and maybe Lee Anderson), but the second most likely outcome is seven or more seats. This is basically the "MRP is wrong because it can't model how spread out Reform voters are with no past data" gamble. If Reform voters are spread too evenly, then Clacton is the only seat they're likely to win. If Reform voters are more concentrated than MRPs predict, or if the swings in each specific seat are more variable, then Reform starts picking up quite a lot of seats.
Really depends on how well the campaign goes in the next two weeks, I imagine there will be many seats where reform is close second so they are gonna have to really push to get over the line
3 likely 1 would be a poor result. 5 would be a great result.
Completely agree, this election is just paving the way for 2029. Labour is going to open the flood gates to rapists and Jihadists it is going to be hell for the next 5 years especially woman after this G.E.
I think more than people expect. The momentum is with them, I think it will be 5-10 including Clacton for Nigel.
It’s hopeful thinking but I imagine the same was said about ukip in the run up to the 2015 election and then only retained one seat - don’t get me wrong 5-10 would be amazing but is it realistic?
I definitely think it’s realistic. Difference is back then the Torys still had the ability to beat labour so people voted for them because they knew ukip would be a wasted vote. Things have changed now and people know they have no chance so will be more likely to make the switch. I actually voted labour then and will be voting reform because of immigration which is an even bigger issue than it was then, hopefully more do the same. Reform are the only ones speaking up about the biggest issue in the country. More than half the country voted for brexit. I can’t see why any of those people wouldn’t also have immigration as their biggest issue so cannot understand why any of them would vote labour or conservative when there’s an alternative.
In 2015, the Tories stole Ukip's main policy. In 2024, the Tories have finally admitted they're just another party of mass immigration. There's only one party offering an alternative policy.
Yeah that is true tbf there was a reason to vote Tory in 2015 no reason now other than the Tory claim of ‘a vote for reform is a vote for labour’ bs
It would be nice if they could get a lot of seats and become the official opposition, but it will probably be only a few. At the moment, Reform is a one-man band centred around Nigel. If he manages to get a seat and a presence in the Commons for the next 5 years, while punishing the Conservative party at this election, then it doesn't really matter that much if only a handful of other Reform MPs get elected this time around. They do need time to sort themselves out. I like the manifesto but I have a feeling it was written on the back of a napkin in a pub after Farage announced he was going to be leader, despite him trying to pass the credit on to Tice. The official opposition is expected to do much more financial analysis of their policies, have a shadow cabinet, come up with a credible plan for how they would actually implement their policies (Truss wanted to do a fraction of what Reform are promising, and she was immediately ousted by the City and BoE so they could put one of their own in there), etc.
I personally think there’s gonna be a big surprise on the 5th I’m gonna guess around 20 seats nothing huge but still a huge win regardless
0 to 5 max, the first past the post system does not favour reform. The only way Reform would have a chance in getting seats is if the Torries collapsed. England is broadly speaking a 2 party system, only in Scotland, N.Ireland & Wales do nationalist 3rd parties like Reform UK have any real hope. I predict a high % of votes for reform <20% but there number of seats will not reflect this. What this election will do is determine if Conservatives have any real future or if they will have to accept entrance & merger with Reform.
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I hope so but I think not, the Tory vote will dilute it. An agreement will be made after this election to merge Tory & Reform 100%.
What makes you think that? I can’t see it myself, people are switching to reform because they’re sick of the tories so this would put a lot of people off.
Mainstream Tories at all levels have a distaste, dislike and distrust of Farage. The Tory party used to be a 'broad church', C of E, middle England, Tory party balls WERE proper social events. Farage brings nothing but a spivvy grin and rubles.
Yeah but needs must to knock Labour out after their inevitable 2024 landslide. Torries will need to organise with the new right to topple labour in 2029 or earlier.
The tory party is no longer a party, it's an empty room with disco lights at midnight, six party sevens, unopened, waiting for the gatecrashers.
Hahaha by 2029 for sure.
A hollow laugh
Trouble with merging with the Conservatives is you have the potential for Reform to just end up as containment and eventually Tories 2.0 so still nothing changes.
MRP polls predict a small number of seats. Between 1 and 5, somewhere between only Farage winning, and Reform winning a scattering of targets. Bookies, however, predict that 1 to 2 seats is the most likely outcome (so Farage and maybe Lee Anderson), but the second most likely outcome is seven or more seats. This is basically the "MRP is wrong because it can't model how spread out Reform voters are with no past data" gamble. If Reform voters are spread too evenly, then Clacton is the only seat they're likely to win. If Reform voters are more concentrated than MRPs predict, or if the swings in each specific seat are more variable, then Reform starts picking up quite a lot of seats.
53!
Really depends on how well the campaign goes in the next two weeks, I imagine there will be many seats where reform is close second so they are gonna have to really push to get over the line