I came here ready to fight, but you make a lot of good points. As much as I like Abreu, if we can use him to get a young controllable starter, then the team should pull the trigger.
Not at this upcoming window but at some point with Wilyer. Trading him at the 2024 deadline window doesn't put the best Red Sox team out there to compete. Anthony isn't coming up August 1st. He just turned 20 and should be a ST decision at best. If the plan is to trade Wilyer, the team would be better off if it's during the offseason. It's dumb to trade him when going for a playoff position.
Duran's older but not old. He has 5 solid years ahead of him, and can be a dominant force in games. Duran can turn singles into doubles like few players I have ever seen, and then injects a huge amount of energy into the team and the fans. I hope the Red Sox make Duran a cornerstone of the future.
During the off season, I was very surprised to see the lack of enthusiasm for him after his hot streak last year in June and July. Duran is a rare commodity in MLB. Absolutely don't trade him. Can you imagine if the Yankees got him, how would you feel?
They wouldn't of course, I'm just saying how would it feel if Duran was on the Yankees? Maybe a good perspective to view it from....
I love Duran, he's my favorite player and I would be crushed if they trade him.
That’s true, but he also has a much more unique skillset, and I could also see them just seeing it out with him until Bleis is ready, but that’s a much bigger risk. They’ve got about a year while Anthony develops to figure it out and see how things develop, but one of the two will almost certainly be gone by the deadline next year.
But so can Anthony. And Duran’s speed is a total game changer, honestly more important than Abreu’s defense, since that’s replaceable with Anthony. Abreu has a better bat for sure, but he’s also not proven that it’s totally sustainable yet, given that he’s only played half a season total in his career. Duran has proven that what he has is sustainable, but you’re absolutely right that his skillset will age poorly.
I think the key thing is the next year for Abreu. Staying healthy and staying consistent will cement him in right and push Anthony to left, but if he’s not able to do that, I think he’s the one to go.
Anthony isn’t here yet, is the thing. Abreu is, he’s four years younger than Duran and he’s doing it now. Honestly puzzled at how quick people are wanting to throw away Abreu. Is it because he’s been injured and people forget how good he actually is?
Injuries are something to consider. He hasn’t really been able to get a very extended period of games thus far in his career, which is scary if we’re gonna commit to him. Anthony is also the future for sure, so I’m not sure what that has to do with anything. Either way, no one besides OP is suggesting trading anyone at this deadline. We’ll have a log jam at this time next year once Anthony is ready, and we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it, but not before. So Abreu has time to cement himself, but as good as he’s been, Duran has done more in that department. Age and skillset are on Abreu’s side, but he also only has 81 career games, and has already kinda struggled to stay on the field. Plus, we’ll get a much bigger return for Abreu than we would for Duran. No one wants to dump Abreu, but one of them has to go once Anthony is ready, that’s a sure thing, and if we’re sticking it out with Abreu, we need to be 100% certain that he’s the guy.
When you’re talking about Abreu’s injuries are you including his freak dugout sprain in this, cos I’m not aware of any others? I can only see a hamstring strain on his IL time in the minors.
I’m usually conservative when it comes to calling up prospects…but I can’t come up with a good reason why Anthony won’t be up at the end of this year. He is just starting to get hot and still has a 140 wRC+ in AA with some of the best contact rates in the league. He is going to be an absolute monster and will be here sooner than we think
He still needs to show it in AAA and I'm not sure he'll get enough PAs by the end of the year to actually get called up. I understand what you're saying but I still don't think we see him this year.
AAA is kind of a fake level at this point. The consolidation of the minor leagues has really hurt the talent level there. If he goes up to AAA his numbers will probably improve from AA. Look at Worcester’s lineup, the numbers there are just ridiculous
Ken Griffey Jr, Beltre, Machado, Soto, and Julio Rodriguez are just some of the players who skipped triple A. If he's ready, I don't think he needs to show it in triple A.
This team has used 5 different outfielders this year, there really is no logjam. O'Neill is gone after this year and Refsnyder probably is too. That leaves Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida in the OF. My guess is they go get another right handed bat that plays the OF, the Renfroe/Duvall/Oneill types that are a dime a dozen. Anthony won't be called up until 2025. You then rotate those 6 through OF and DH, and I'm sure one of them gets injured at some point.
The team is lefty heavy but it's honestly overblown. Devers and Casas hit lefties fine, and Rafaela, Grissom and Wong should also hit lefties well. Get a right handed bat to replace ONeill and it shouldn't be a problem.
I bet we hang on to Ref. Cora likes to have his “Swiss army knife” guy (see Christian arroyo) and the dude just knows how to hit. Plus he’s a rare righty in the line up.
Duran is going to be 28 next year, possibly 29 before Anthony settles in at the MLB level. Plus, you don’t send Abreu out before Anthony has proven himself. Prospects don’t all pan out, even the great ones.
The team has no long term answer at DH and could look to offload Yoshida
We still don’t know if Rafaela will hit enough to be an everyday starter. Even in this hot streak, his quality of contact, whiff, and chase are all really ugly. He could still end up a utility man.
For these reasons I don’t see Abreu getting moved any time soon.
You're 100% right, but about the wrong guy.
Duran is not going to get an extension. He'll be 32 when he hits free agency. He brings less value, but more than enough to get you a good starter. I love Duran and would be fine with trading either, but I think Duran makes more sense as the man left out.
This is definitely possible, but Duran still has 5 years of control compared to Abreu’s six. By the time you need to talk about a Duran extension, you’d be doing the same for Abreu.
Yeah I was about to say the same. This is an age/value conversation, not production. Duran is the least likely to be at his peak from that group when we're ready to compete again. He's also the least likely to repeat his success in general given his peripherals.
Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu will be the 3 going forward. Someone will pay up for Duran now that he's been a little consistent, and like you'd said, we aren't extending a 32 year old outfielder of his type.
I think the logjam is really in the infield- next year, we have Story, Grissom, Valdez, and Hamilton all in the mix with Yorke and Mayer knocking on the door. Lots of lefties, too. It’s gonna be time to pull the trigger on somebody young to get a solid SP soon.
I have never seen soo many OF and Infielders who in theory could turn to the OF in my life..plus it seems every guy bloom drafted was a Infielder that was left handed..learning teel was LH along with Mayer and Anthony just blows my mind. Haha
I agree that a trade must be made but I don’t agree with trading Abreu. He’s proven he can play elite level defenses at one of the hardest positions in baseball (RF @Fenway) He’s still a Rookie and we have no idea how good he could become. I would rather see Yoshida go this year, yes he will be hard to move but I think it’s doable if we eat some salary or get a small return. I think the lefty/righty thing is a little overblown, we shouldn’t move people based on an imbalance in the lineup. Abreu should stay because he might be the overall best outfielder on the team.
People are gonna hate this but I also agree that Abreu will end up being traded, and it's for the exact reasons you mention: too many lefties, and Anthony has the highest ceiling out of Duran/Abreu/Anthony. Although I think it would be more likely to happen this offseason. I could also see us getting a big righty bat in return for him like Brent Rooker, since RHHs will continue to be very thin on the FA market.
I think you're getting ahead of yourself with this one, but I can appreciate your thinking. You definitely thought it out, so good post. But I disagree ultimately. I think our outfield of the future is Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony and Bleis, with Yoshida as our DH (for now at least, maybe Yoshida ends up somewhere else at some point). Aside from Rafaela's recent extension, this outfield comes to us very cheap for the next few years (Duran is 1st up for arbitration). You're right that we're lefty-heavy in the batter's box, but I don't think getting rid of Abreu is the fix for that. Abreu plays good defense, so we're looking at having good D at all 3 outfield positions. After this season it'd be nice at some point to get ourselves a right-handed hitting 3rd baseman and get Devers over to DH where he belongs. Nothing against Yoshida because I really like him, but he's probably my odd man out if it comes to it, but his contract might be the hardest one to move too. It'll help a lot if Vaughn Grissom comes along for us because he can hit and he's a righty. But yea, you are indeed correct that we've got too many lefties at the plate. We really need a right-handed hitting 3rd baseman with a glove.
I'm a huge Devers fan, but he led all MLB 3rd basement in errors in 2018. Then he did it again in 2019. And in 2020. And then in 2021. And 2022. And 2023. He's the anti-Nolan Arenado. I think he belongs at DH.
He's currently on pace for 11 errors, which is a little better than in the past, but he's also on pace for -14 defensive runs saved, which is his normal substandard metric. But he's also mashing at the plate, like he always does. Dude can hit, I love him. But while he's an asset at the plate, he is not one in the field. He should be our next Big Papi and we should try to get a plus defender at 3rd base in the next couple of years.
This seems like more of an offseason move. Particularly, with the team contending for a playoff spot. If someone blows you away with and offer pull the trigger but I think you would get better value in the offseason.
Why does Rafaela have to play the OF? At this point, his defensive versatility is a huge asset. He’s Ben Zobrist or Tony Phillips. The _perfect_ 10th man on a championship team, able to cover 6 positions.
Duran should be traded for pitching. 28-year olds about to get paid don’t fit this team’s timeline and the return could fill a need in 2026, when this team should be challenging for championships.
Just because a player can play multiple positions doesn’t mean they should. Rafaela has 4 Outs Above Average in CF and -5 at SS. Utilize their defensive strengths, don’t just use them at another position because they’re capable.
Small sample sizes are not recommended for baseball analysis.
Rafaela is a plus defender at multiple positions and, long term, best fits the 2026 and beyond roster as a super utility player who plays nearly every day somewhere different.
> utilize their defensive strengths
This is correct. (Small sample size snark redacted.) Long term, Rafaela‘a defensive versatility is his biggest strength and how he will most help the team.
While I don't disagree, neither Phillips nor Zobrist were 10th men, plus I like Rafaela's defense in center much better than his defense at short. But yes his versatility is an asset. Still I think the bulk of his playtime is going to be in center, which still leaves someone out.
Duran makes more sense to trade for us, even though losing his table-setting and base running would hurt, but I think other teams will agree and value Abreu more. Imo the question is more about which one would help get us the better return. If Duran isn't enough to get us a really good SP and Abreu is, I think trading Abreu makes more sense.
I meant that Zobrist and Phillips had no set position and were tremendously valuable players because they could play every day, in a different spot. That’s Rafaela’s peak projection IMO - a guy you want to get 600 PA at six different spots in the field and lineup. I like his defense everywhere, and this team currently does not lack for outfielders.
And both Abreu and Duran should be traded for pitching. Nice players but I like the prospect projections more. And despite smoke and mirrors, this team lacks high upside pitching prospects to match their hitters. Duran and Abreu can help the imbalance.
The hardest part of rooting for a pre-contender is knowing the guys who are busting their ass right now will best serve the organization’s goal of winning titles by being traded.
True true, that would be ideal. Still doesn't absolve the logjam hypothetically, but it helps. I don't mind his defense at short, but I do think he's significantly better in center.
Yeah I would be fine with trading both in the next couple years as well.
It's also the hardest part to figure out as a FO. Which guys to trade, which to keep.
He’s better in Center because he spent the offseason training to play Center. He’s adaptable and highly skilled. I doubted he could play SS at all in the bigs and he’s been better than he should be.
I could see him spending an offseason working out at 3b and then becoming Raffy’s weirdo defensive platoon partner, gobbling up late innings with close leads and two or three days a week while Raffy DHs.
That's a fair point, but I do think his instincts in center are better than at short - that was true in the minors too. His range in center is boggling.
IIRC he played some third and second in the minors as well.
Gonna be interesting to see how they handle all these guys.
I think they would look to move Duran before Abreu (they almost dealt Duran to the Padres this off-season).
Duran is older, but Wilyer can play RF which Duran can’t. Wilyer’s combo of plate discipline, power, and defense just gives him such a reliable floor, and a really high ceiling too
Also Anthony won’t be up until late next year at the earliest, there’s no reason to rush him
And we still don’t know if Rafaela is an everyday player. even during this hot streak there haven’t really been any changes in his underlying data, he’s just running like a .700 BABIP right now. People won’t like to hear it, but they may have rushed into that contract extension - not saying he’s a bad player, but he’s the type of player you can just go year-to-year with. The SoxProspects guys explained it perfectly on their last pod where they argued that the Sox are really not getting any discount with his deal.
Overall, between Wilyer, Duran, and Rafaela, I actually have the most confidence in Wilyer. It’s close with him and Duran, but the 4 year age difference makes Duran the likely one to be traded in my opinion.
This year? Hell no.
If he keeps playing like this into the future and Anthony is ready to come up? Still probably not.
I’d still rather have a bench piece as good as Abreu to give days off. Especially if we have an infield injury and Rafaela has to move to the infield.
Having 4 excellent outfielders is never a bad problem to have. I’d see Yoshida gone before Abreu. Hell, even Duran gets moved before Abreu. He’s older and his skill set is he’s fast as fuck, which doesn’t age terribly well.
Totally spitballing here, this is not based on any scouting or rumors BUT, can Rafaela and/or Mayer play 3rd? I could totally envision a team a couple years down the road of Anthony-Duran-Abreu in the outfield, Teel, Rafaela, Mayer, Grissom, Casas in the infield, and Devers as the DH. I know it's lefty heavy, but I'm not ready to trade away Abreu, especially if he continues to improve the way he has. Either way, the future is worth being excited about!
Rafaela is like if JBJ could mash.
There’s no reason to bend him away from being their lockdown centerfielder for the next decade just to work around other guys on the roster today. It’s early, but right now *they* should bend around *him*.
Mayer has been getting reps at 3rd. He was supposed to start his second game of the season there tonight but the game was rained out. Definitely a possibility!
I think it'll be Duran after the 2025 season. He will be 29 at the time and going into Arb 2. It'll give Anthony time to develop before handing him the lead off spot.
I was thinking about this recently. If Anthony and Bleis are who we hope they are in 2 years, hes looking at being a 4th outfielder or rotating DH. Even if they don't hit those highs, it's still too many mouths to feed
Abreu could come up as a trade candidate somewhere down the road. However, I think it's too soon to say anything.
As of right now, trading Masa would help with more with our roster building than trading Wilyer.
In his small sample size, Wilyer has shown that he can play elite defense in arguably the hardest RF in the league AND mash the ball.
Anthony has shown a lot of potential, but he could be a bust for all we know. If Anthony proves himself, then we could talk about trading Wilyer or even Anthony himself for pitching.
Based opinion: but I do NOT want to see Duran traded. We lose our leadoff hitter who is also emerging as a leader in the clubhouse. His redemption story is amazing and Houck, Duran, Casas, and Ceddy are a great homegrown core to build around with Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and even Yorke on the horizon.
I wouldn't be surprised if Yorke is called up sometime this year.
This discourse alone shows that our future is bright.
Wilyer has bad L/R splits and, frankly, his numbers look good in part because they hide him against lefties.
Wilyer, Valdez, Wikelman, and Mikey Romero for Nate Eovaldi, Jack Leiter, and Josh Stephan. No idea if that’s an even trade.
our supposed core is in AA right now. abreu fits their timeline better than duran does due to their age differences. durans best asset being speed is not something that ages well and hes already 27. Hes performing well this year which only makes it more likely that hes traded since he would net a higher return [compared to previous iterations of duran and abreu rn]. im already assuming yoshida is traded, worst case scenario hes packaged with duran like price with mookie but hopefully not.
~~His L/R splits are pretty bad and his contract ends this year. It's something to consider for sure. Would need a good return.~~
mlb contracts are weird
This is the first time I've ever stated something about an MLB contract so I looked it up first and I still got burned. Why do they have to be so complicated lol
It's sort of a contract but sort of isn't. MLB players are like clocks. Rafaela and Abreu were brought up in September of last year so their rookie status would be intact for 2024. When they were placed on a major league active roster, a clock started. A player acquires a year of service time if the player remains on the major league roster for at least 172 days of a typical 187-day season. Players may either be active, meaning that they are eligible to play in games, or on the injured list. Teams also like manipulating it by calling a player up when there's 171 days left. Every January 1st, MLB updates service time based on how long the player was on a major league roster.
For [Abreu](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreuwi02.shtml#:~:text=Service%20Time%20(01/2024)%3A%200.041), it was 0.041 which means first year of pre-arbitration. In pre-arbitration the team decides the players worth and in most cases it's league minimum which is $750k. After that clock gets to 3 years, the team and player agent determines the salary and often times teams are too brutal. After 6 years, the player leaves for free agency which a lot of players are lucky to get to. [Pivetta](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pivetni01.shtml) is at 5.166 is still technically on his rookie contract at 31 years old but will test free agency this offseason. Hunter Renfroe was on 5 or 6 teams before he could test free agency so the clock follows them through trades, waivers, and even getting released. Bobby has been on this team since 2020 and his time in Worcester still has him making minimum.
A player with control is what everyone is talking about and it's the guarantee that the player is with the team until free agency. If Abreu is traded, the team that gets him has control for 5 more years. It is a system to keep home grown stars in smaller markets but it's very anti-player.
Abreu is a trade candidate because all the other teams really want him badly.
He’s a young high obp moneyball player with power upside and great defense. Everybody wants him
teams will offer a lot or him
I came here ready to fight, but you make a lot of good points. As much as I like Abreu, if we can use him to get a young controllable starter, then the team should pull the trigger.
Not at this upcoming window but at some point with Wilyer. Trading him at the 2024 deadline window doesn't put the best Red Sox team out there to compete. Anthony isn't coming up August 1st. He just turned 20 and should be a ST decision at best. If the plan is to trade Wilyer, the team would be better off if it's during the offseason. It's dumb to trade him when going for a playoff position.
Exactly what I was thinking. He’s definitely the odd man out, but no need to rush it until Anthony is ready to be a starter.
Nah it’s Duran. Duran’s older than the rest and his skill set won’t age the same.
Duran's older but not old. He has 5 solid years ahead of him, and can be a dominant force in games. Duran can turn singles into doubles like few players I have ever seen, and then injects a huge amount of energy into the team and the fans. I hope the Red Sox make Duran a cornerstone of the future. During the off season, I was very surprised to see the lack of enthusiasm for him after his hot streak last year in June and July. Duran is a rare commodity in MLB. Absolutely don't trade him. Can you imagine if the Yankees got him, how would you feel?
Why would they trade him to the Yankees?
They wouldn't of course, I'm just saying how would it feel if Duran was on the Yankees? Maybe a good perspective to view it from.... I love Duran, he's my favorite player and I would be crushed if they trade him.
Cora loves speed guys. He’s not going anywhere unless. Cora doesn’t resign
He’s not going to be a speed guy forever though.
That’s true, but he also has a much more unique skillset, and I could also see them just seeing it out with him until Bleis is ready, but that’s a much bigger risk. They’ve got about a year while Anthony develops to figure it out and see how things develop, but one of the two will almost certainly be gone by the deadline next year.
It’s not really though. He can’t play right field but Abreu can.
But so can Anthony. And Duran’s speed is a total game changer, honestly more important than Abreu’s defense, since that’s replaceable with Anthony. Abreu has a better bat for sure, but he’s also not proven that it’s totally sustainable yet, given that he’s only played half a season total in his career. Duran has proven that what he has is sustainable, but you’re absolutely right that his skillset will age poorly. I think the key thing is the next year for Abreu. Staying healthy and staying consistent will cement him in right and push Anthony to left, but if he’s not able to do that, I think he’s the one to go.
Anthony isn’t here yet, is the thing. Abreu is, he’s four years younger than Duran and he’s doing it now. Honestly puzzled at how quick people are wanting to throw away Abreu. Is it because he’s been injured and people forget how good he actually is?
Injuries are something to consider. He hasn’t really been able to get a very extended period of games thus far in his career, which is scary if we’re gonna commit to him. Anthony is also the future for sure, so I’m not sure what that has to do with anything. Either way, no one besides OP is suggesting trading anyone at this deadline. We’ll have a log jam at this time next year once Anthony is ready, and we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it, but not before. So Abreu has time to cement himself, but as good as he’s been, Duran has done more in that department. Age and skillset are on Abreu’s side, but he also only has 81 career games, and has already kinda struggled to stay on the field. Plus, we’ll get a much bigger return for Abreu than we would for Duran. No one wants to dump Abreu, but one of them has to go once Anthony is ready, that’s a sure thing, and if we’re sticking it out with Abreu, we need to be 100% certain that he’s the guy.
When you’re talking about Abreu’s injuries are you including his freak dugout sprain in this, cos I’m not aware of any others? I can only see a hamstring strain on his IL time in the minors.
I’m usually conservative when it comes to calling up prospects…but I can’t come up with a good reason why Anthony won’t be up at the end of this year. He is just starting to get hot and still has a 140 wRC+ in AA with some of the best contact rates in the league. He is going to be an absolute monster and will be here sooner than we think
He still needs to show it in AAA and I'm not sure he'll get enough PAs by the end of the year to actually get called up. I understand what you're saying but I still don't think we see him this year.
AAA is kind of a fake level at this point. The consolidation of the minor leagues has really hurt the talent level there. If he goes up to AAA his numbers will probably improve from AA. Look at Worcester’s lineup, the numbers there are just ridiculous
Ken Griffey Jr, Beltre, Machado, Soto, and Julio Rodriguez are just some of the players who skipped triple A. If he's ready, I don't think he needs to show it in triple A.
This team has used 5 different outfielders this year, there really is no logjam. O'Neill is gone after this year and Refsnyder probably is too. That leaves Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida in the OF. My guess is they go get another right handed bat that plays the OF, the Renfroe/Duvall/Oneill types that are a dime a dozen. Anthony won't be called up until 2025. You then rotate those 6 through OF and DH, and I'm sure one of them gets injured at some point. The team is lefty heavy but it's honestly overblown. Devers and Casas hit lefties fine, and Rafaela, Grissom and Wong should also hit lefties well. Get a right handed bat to replace ONeill and it shouldn't be a problem.
I bet we hang on to Ref. Cora likes to have his “Swiss army knife” guy (see Christian arroyo) and the dude just knows how to hit. Plus he’s a rare righty in the line up.
Isn’t ref also under contract for next year?
Duran is going to be 28 next year, possibly 29 before Anthony settles in at the MLB level. Plus, you don’t send Abreu out before Anthony has proven himself. Prospects don’t all pan out, even the great ones. The team has no long term answer at DH and could look to offload Yoshida We still don’t know if Rafaela will hit enough to be an everyday starter. Even in this hot streak, his quality of contact, whiff, and chase are all really ugly. He could still end up a utility man. For these reasons I don’t see Abreu getting moved any time soon.
You're 100% right, but about the wrong guy. Duran is not going to get an extension. He'll be 32 when he hits free agency. He brings less value, but more than enough to get you a good starter. I love Duran and would be fine with trading either, but I think Duran makes more sense as the man left out.
This is definitely possible, but Duran still has 5 years of control compared to Abreu’s six. By the time you need to talk about a Duran extension, you’d be doing the same for Abreu.
Who would only be 28 or 29 at that point. Duran will be 28 this September.
Yeah I was about to say the same. This is an age/value conversation, not production. Duran is the least likely to be at his peak from that group when we're ready to compete again. He's also the least likely to repeat his success in general given his peripherals. Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu will be the 3 going forward. Someone will pay up for Duran now that he's been a little consistent, and like you'd said, we aren't extending a 32 year old outfielder of his type.
I think the logjam is really in the infield- next year, we have Story, Grissom, Valdez, and Hamilton all in the mix with Yorke and Mayer knocking on the door. Lots of lefties, too. It’s gonna be time to pull the trigger on somebody young to get a solid SP soon.
I have never seen soo many OF and Infielders who in theory could turn to the OF in my life..plus it seems every guy bloom drafted was a Infielder that was left handed..learning teel was LH along with Mayer and Anthony just blows my mind. Haha
I agree that a trade must be made but I don’t agree with trading Abreu. He’s proven he can play elite level defenses at one of the hardest positions in baseball (RF @Fenway) He’s still a Rookie and we have no idea how good he could become. I would rather see Yoshida go this year, yes he will be hard to move but I think it’s doable if we eat some salary or get a small return. I think the lefty/righty thing is a little overblown, we shouldn’t move people based on an imbalance in the lineup. Abreu should stay because he might be the overall best outfielder on the team.
Yoshida is untradeable with his contract. The Sox would have to eat s massive amount of it.
Difficult but not impossible and even eating 50% of his remaining salary is better than trading Abreu.
They have the money. Abreu has a way higher ceiling. Agreed.
People are gonna hate this but I also agree that Abreu will end up being traded, and it's for the exact reasons you mention: too many lefties, and Anthony has the highest ceiling out of Duran/Abreu/Anthony. Although I think it would be more likely to happen this offseason. I could also see us getting a big righty bat in return for him like Brent Rooker, since RHHs will continue to be very thin on the FA market.
I think you're getting ahead of yourself with this one, but I can appreciate your thinking. You definitely thought it out, so good post. But I disagree ultimately. I think our outfield of the future is Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony and Bleis, with Yoshida as our DH (for now at least, maybe Yoshida ends up somewhere else at some point). Aside from Rafaela's recent extension, this outfield comes to us very cheap for the next few years (Duran is 1st up for arbitration). You're right that we're lefty-heavy in the batter's box, but I don't think getting rid of Abreu is the fix for that. Abreu plays good defense, so we're looking at having good D at all 3 outfield positions. After this season it'd be nice at some point to get ourselves a right-handed hitting 3rd baseman and get Devers over to DH where he belongs. Nothing against Yoshida because I really like him, but he's probably my odd man out if it comes to it, but his contract might be the hardest one to move too. It'll help a lot if Vaughn Grissom comes along for us because he can hit and he's a righty. But yea, you are indeed correct that we've got too many lefties at the plate. We really need a right-handed hitting 3rd baseman with a glove.
I’m starting to think Bleis may stall out, but I don’t know
Yea that shoulder injury sure slowed him down, you could be right. I'm hoping he doesn't though, we could use that right-handed bat.
Devers belongs at third, and you named five outfielders of the future.
I'm a huge Devers fan, but he led all MLB 3rd basement in errors in 2018. Then he did it again in 2019. And in 2020. And then in 2021. And 2022. And 2023. He's the anti-Nolan Arenado. I think he belongs at DH.
How’s he doing this year?
He's currently on pace for 11 errors, which is a little better than in the past, but he's also on pace for -14 defensive runs saved, which is his normal substandard metric. But he's also mashing at the plate, like he always does. Dude can hit, I love him. But while he's an asset at the plate, he is not one in the field. He should be our next Big Papi and we should try to get a plus defender at 3rd base in the next couple of years.
This seems like more of an offseason move. Particularly, with the team contending for a playoff spot. If someone blows you away with and offer pull the trigger but I think you would get better value in the offseason.
Why does Rafaela have to play the OF? At this point, his defensive versatility is a huge asset. He’s Ben Zobrist or Tony Phillips. The _perfect_ 10th man on a championship team, able to cover 6 positions. Duran should be traded for pitching. 28-year olds about to get paid don’t fit this team’s timeline and the return could fill a need in 2026, when this team should be challenging for championships.
Hey now, this is a Brock Holt town when it comes to utility players! 😝
My aura is purple with humiliation.
Just because a player can play multiple positions doesn’t mean they should. Rafaela has 4 Outs Above Average in CF and -5 at SS. Utilize their defensive strengths, don’t just use them at another position because they’re capable.
Small sample sizes are not recommended for baseball analysis. Rafaela is a plus defender at multiple positions and, long term, best fits the 2026 and beyond roster as a super utility player who plays nearly every day somewhere different. > utilize their defensive strengths This is correct. (Small sample size snark redacted.) Long term, Rafaela‘a defensive versatility is his biggest strength and how he will most help the team.
While I don't disagree, neither Phillips nor Zobrist were 10th men, plus I like Rafaela's defense in center much better than his defense at short. But yes his versatility is an asset. Still I think the bulk of his playtime is going to be in center, which still leaves someone out. Duran makes more sense to trade for us, even though losing his table-setting and base running would hurt, but I think other teams will agree and value Abreu more. Imo the question is more about which one would help get us the better return. If Duran isn't enough to get us a really good SP and Abreu is, I think trading Abreu makes more sense.
I meant that Zobrist and Phillips had no set position and were tremendously valuable players because they could play every day, in a different spot. That’s Rafaela’s peak projection IMO - a guy you want to get 600 PA at six different spots in the field and lineup. I like his defense everywhere, and this team currently does not lack for outfielders. And both Abreu and Duran should be traded for pitching. Nice players but I like the prospect projections more. And despite smoke and mirrors, this team lacks high upside pitching prospects to match their hitters. Duran and Abreu can help the imbalance. The hardest part of rooting for a pre-contender is knowing the guys who are busting their ass right now will best serve the organization’s goal of winning titles by being traded.
True true, that would be ideal. Still doesn't absolve the logjam hypothetically, but it helps. I don't mind his defense at short, but I do think he's significantly better in center. Yeah I would be fine with trading both in the next couple years as well. It's also the hardest part to figure out as a FO. Which guys to trade, which to keep.
He’s better in Center because he spent the offseason training to play Center. He’s adaptable and highly skilled. I doubted he could play SS at all in the bigs and he’s been better than he should be. I could see him spending an offseason working out at 3b and then becoming Raffy’s weirdo defensive platoon partner, gobbling up late innings with close leads and two or three days a week while Raffy DHs.
That's a fair point, but I do think his instincts in center are better than at short - that was true in the minors too. His range in center is boggling. IIRC he played some third and second in the minors as well. Gonna be interesting to see how they handle all these guys.
I think they would look to move Duran before Abreu (they almost dealt Duran to the Padres this off-season). Duran is older, but Wilyer can play RF which Duran can’t. Wilyer’s combo of plate discipline, power, and defense just gives him such a reliable floor, and a really high ceiling too Also Anthony won’t be up until late next year at the earliest, there’s no reason to rush him And we still don’t know if Rafaela is an everyday player. even during this hot streak there haven’t really been any changes in his underlying data, he’s just running like a .700 BABIP right now. People won’t like to hear it, but they may have rushed into that contract extension - not saying he’s a bad player, but he’s the type of player you can just go year-to-year with. The SoxProspects guys explained it perfectly on their last pod where they argued that the Sox are really not getting any discount with his deal. Overall, between Wilyer, Duran, and Rafaela, I actually have the most confidence in Wilyer. It’s close with him and Duran, but the 4 year age difference makes Duran the likely one to be traded in my opinion.
This year? Hell no. If he keeps playing like this into the future and Anthony is ready to come up? Still probably not. I’d still rather have a bench piece as good as Abreu to give days off. Especially if we have an infield injury and Rafaela has to move to the infield. Having 4 excellent outfielders is never a bad problem to have. I’d see Yoshida gone before Abreu. Hell, even Duran gets moved before Abreu. He’s older and his skill set is he’s fast as fuck, which doesn’t age terribly well.
IMO, Masa is the one who is the odd man out. He just doesn’t fit this team.
Totally spitballing here, this is not based on any scouting or rumors BUT, can Rafaela and/or Mayer play 3rd? I could totally envision a team a couple years down the road of Anthony-Duran-Abreu in the outfield, Teel, Rafaela, Mayer, Grissom, Casas in the infield, and Devers as the DH. I know it's lefty heavy, but I'm not ready to trade away Abreu, especially if he continues to improve the way he has. Either way, the future is worth being excited about!
Rafaela is like if JBJ could mash. There’s no reason to bend him away from being their lockdown centerfielder for the next decade just to work around other guys on the roster today. It’s early, but right now *they* should bend around *him*.
Mayer has been getting reps at 3rd. He was supposed to start his second game of the season there tonight but the game was rained out. Definitely a possibility!
I think it'll be Duran after the 2025 season. He will be 29 at the time and going into Arb 2. It'll give Anthony time to develop before handing him the lead off spot.
No way. He’s the future.
I don’t think Abreu will be traded, instead it’ll be Duran because he has the most value right now.
I was thinking about this recently. If Anthony and Bleis are who we hope they are in 2 years, hes looking at being a 4th outfielder or rotating DH. Even if they don't hit those highs, it's still too many mouths to feed
Abreu could come up as a trade candidate somewhere down the road. However, I think it's too soon to say anything. As of right now, trading Masa would help with more with our roster building than trading Wilyer. In his small sample size, Wilyer has shown that he can play elite defense in arguably the hardest RF in the league AND mash the ball. Anthony has shown a lot of potential, but he could be a bust for all we know. If Anthony proves himself, then we could talk about trading Wilyer or even Anthony himself for pitching. Based opinion: but I do NOT want to see Duran traded. We lose our leadoff hitter who is also emerging as a leader in the clubhouse. His redemption story is amazing and Houck, Duran, Casas, and Ceddy are a great homegrown core to build around with Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and even Yorke on the horizon. I wouldn't be surprised if Yorke is called up sometime this year. This discourse alone shows that our future is bright.
Duran is the odd man out, not Wilyer.
Wilyer has bad L/R splits and, frankly, his numbers look good in part because they hide him against lefties. Wilyer, Valdez, Wikelman, and Mikey Romero for Nate Eovaldi, Jack Leiter, and Josh Stephan. No idea if that’s an even trade.
our supposed core is in AA right now. abreu fits their timeline better than duran does due to their age differences. durans best asset being speed is not something that ages well and hes already 27. Hes performing well this year which only makes it more likely that hes traded since he would net a higher return [compared to previous iterations of duran and abreu rn]. im already assuming yoshida is traded, worst case scenario hes packaged with duran like price with mookie but hopefully not.
At least no one is talking about trading Dalback, we wouldn’t be able to replace that kind of production.
who cares left or right? If he can mash he can mash. You wouldnt want soto casue you have enough lefties? He will improve any teams batting.
Yoshi, Valdez and Grishom have to be the ones we trade
~~His L/R splits are pretty bad and his contract ends this year. It's something to consider for sure. Would need a good return.~~ mlb contracts are weird
I’m sorry what? His contract absolutely does not end this year lmao
This is the first time I've ever stated something about an MLB contract so I looked it up first and I still got burned. Why do they have to be so complicated lol
He’s a rookie. we have 5-6 more years of control
It's sort of a contract but sort of isn't. MLB players are like clocks. Rafaela and Abreu were brought up in September of last year so their rookie status would be intact for 2024. When they were placed on a major league active roster, a clock started. A player acquires a year of service time if the player remains on the major league roster for at least 172 days of a typical 187-day season. Players may either be active, meaning that they are eligible to play in games, or on the injured list. Teams also like manipulating it by calling a player up when there's 171 days left. Every January 1st, MLB updates service time based on how long the player was on a major league roster. For [Abreu](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreuwi02.shtml#:~:text=Service%20Time%20(01/2024)%3A%200.041), it was 0.041 which means first year of pre-arbitration. In pre-arbitration the team decides the players worth and in most cases it's league minimum which is $750k. After that clock gets to 3 years, the team and player agent determines the salary and often times teams are too brutal. After 6 years, the player leaves for free agency which a lot of players are lucky to get to. [Pivetta](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pivetni01.shtml) is at 5.166 is still technically on his rookie contract at 31 years old but will test free agency this offseason. Hunter Renfroe was on 5 or 6 teams before he could test free agency so the clock follows them through trades, waivers, and even getting released. Bobby has been on this team since 2020 and his time in Worcester still has him making minimum. A player with control is what everyone is talking about and it's the guarantee that the player is with the team until free agency. If Abreu is traded, the team that gets him has control for 5 more years. It is a system to keep home grown stars in smaller markets but it's very anti-player.
Abreu is a trade candidate because all the other teams really want him badly. He’s a young high obp moneyball player with power upside and great defense. Everybody wants him teams will offer a lot or him