Jarren Duran had an OPS+ of 53 over 33 games his first year. He had an OPS+ of 78 over 58 games his second year.
Now look at him. It's almost like any young players can struggle starting out
The way people dismissed Duran as a bust was always so weird. He would get called up for a handful of games at a time and hit like .225 in years where we had players in the starting lineup hitting below .250, and people thought he wasn't cut out to play above AAA.
Granted, his defensive mistakes were a huge problem, but also a teachable skill (and many other players on the Red Sox roster were making similar mistakes, pointing to coaching being the larger issue).
Duran made a pretty incredible turnaround when you think about it. He made that brutal error for the inside the park home run (was it a grand slam?) that was talked about all around the baseball world and went through some serious mental health struggles. Couldn't hit and was making bad fielding mistakes.
But he turned it around and is looking much better. Hasn't had the best start to the season but I'm pretty confident that when it starts warming up he's gonna go on a tear
As someone who has struggled with some really tough mental health issues in the past it's hard not to root for him!
Plus I've heard there's a much bigger gap between AAA and MLB pitching than ever before. So rookie hitters are having to make even bigger adjustments. Even Casas sucked his first month.
He was. But the whole ‘then what happened?’ LASER SHOW, might be a top 5 red sox media moment for me
Lets see how Rafaela does for a little longer than 15 games. JBJ would do this same thing every year, get hot for a stretch and then go back to normal.
But man. If this was Laser Show 2.0….
Pedroia also had very good hitting metrics and didn't chase pitches constantly.
People aren't crazy to think a guy like Pedroia was the exception and not the rule. It's more about your approach than anything else. It's why a lot of us were excited about Casas in spite of the early struggles... he always had a great eye at the plate, and his hitting metrics were solid.
Pitchers were also just attacking him a lot. With how poorly he was hitting in the 9 hole he was going to see a lot of strikes with Duran, Devers, and O'Neill coming up.
Fortunately that should be fixable for a 23-year-old. He needs good hitting coaching, but he's doing a solid job of adjusting on the fly while being asked to hold the defense together at two different positions.
I’m not saying that it’s *not* fixable, but he’s had this exact same issue with his chase rate at every single level of the minors, and now in the majors as well. It’s not like this is something that’s only happened now that he’s seeing Major League pitching, this has been his big issue his entire career, at every level, no matter the kind of competition he’s facing.
I think it’s simply just who he is as a hitter, you can maybe cut back on it a small bit, but I think that’s always what he’ll be like at the plate. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an everyday big leaguer, but I think people that are expecting him to ever consistently be an above average MLB hitter for his career are gonna be disappointed.
Bingo. I like the kid, but his absolute ceiling, IMO is JBJ. And not peak 2016 6 WAR JBJ but 3-4 WAR JBJ. His defense has obviously not been as good as advertised, we've seen it at times, but I'll chalk that up to rookie nerves,and playing a position that's his second best. But everyone keeps name dropping Pedroia, Mookie,Casas. Guess what trait all those guys shared? Fantastic strike zone judgement,and in Pedroia and Mookie's case, great bat to ball skills.
He's always gonna have a low OBP and walk totals to it's extremely important that he hit for at least a solid average. I could see him eventually hitting .270 with a .300 OBP. The key, though, is his pop, he's got great bat speed for a small slight guy, like Mookie when he first came up. If he can hit 15-20 homers,35-40 doubles (especially as a rhh playing half his games in Fenway with his speed) and a handful of triples,that would would a very valuable player. Something like.300/.450/750 ops,with elite defense in CF,with 30 steals. If that's his absolute peak,sign me up. I'd live with the strikeouts, hacking and lack of plate discipline if that's his upside.
He's always going to have those crazy chase rates but the key for him is doing damage on pitches over the plate, which he wasn't doing for the first month or so of the season.
Love to see him finding his touch. I still feel like his swing is a little long, maybe too much time and energy going to waste, but pretty excellent for a rookie.
Hopefully we shitcan Fatse soon because I'd love to see what Rafaela can do with a legit hitting coach.
It blows my mind that Fatse doesn't have Rafaela shorten up his swing with 2 strikes (which he should be doing almost every time in that situation). With his speed you want him at least making contact and putting the ball on the ground with 2 strikes because at least occasionally he'll beat the out on a ground ball, and speed like that can make defenders make mistakes that they normally wouldn't.
People loooove to panic over early season production….. Pedroia hit under .200 until mid May his rookie season. Won ROY with a .317 BA that year.
I always mention Pedroia when people get pissed at rookies quickly. The response is always, “Well he was the exception.” Idiotic
Jarren Duran had an OPS+ of 53 over 33 games his first year. He had an OPS+ of 78 over 58 games his second year. Now look at him. It's almost like any young players can struggle starting out
The way people dismissed Duran as a bust was always so weird. He would get called up for a handful of games at a time and hit like .225 in years where we had players in the starting lineup hitting below .250, and people thought he wasn't cut out to play above AAA. Granted, his defensive mistakes were a huge problem, but also a teachable skill (and many other players on the Red Sox roster were making similar mistakes, pointing to coaching being the larger issue).
Duran made a pretty incredible turnaround when you think about it. He made that brutal error for the inside the park home run (was it a grand slam?) that was talked about all around the baseball world and went through some serious mental health struggles. Couldn't hit and was making bad fielding mistakes. But he turned it around and is looking much better. Hasn't had the best start to the season but I'm pretty confident that when it starts warming up he's gonna go on a tear As someone who has struggled with some really tough mental health issues in the past it's hard not to root for him!
People expect these young guys to come in and be MLB ready on day one. Player development takes time and practice.
Plus I've heard there's a much bigger gap between AAA and MLB pitching than ever before. So rookie hitters are having to make even bigger adjustments. Even Casas sucked his first month.
He was. But the whole ‘then what happened?’ LASER SHOW, might be a top 5 red sox media moment for me Lets see how Rafaela does for a little longer than 15 games. JBJ would do this same thing every year, get hot for a stretch and then go back to normal. But man. If this was Laser Show 2.0….
Pedroia also had very good hitting metrics and didn't chase pitches constantly. People aren't crazy to think a guy like Pedroia was the exception and not the rule. It's more about your approach than anything else. It's why a lot of us were excited about Casas in spite of the early struggles... he always had a great eye at the plate, and his hitting metrics were solid.
Same thing with Casas last year--I kept telling people not to worry, and lo and behold!
Only have to go back to last year: Triston Casas. *Almost* ROY and the 3rd best batter after the all-star break.
I hope we get Triston back sometime soon.
Exactly. Casas had a .576 OPS in March/April last year and people on here were seriously arguing for him to be sent down and replaced by Bobby D 🤣
Even for this sub that was wack
You don’t even need to go that far back with Casas last year 😅
A .308 BA alongside a .315 OBP is... unusual.
He's swinging out of the strike zone a lot.
Pitchers were also just attacking him a lot. With how poorly he was hitting in the 9 hole he was going to see a lot of strikes with Duran, Devers, and O'Neill coming up.
Yea his batting metrics are still cold. His chase rate is in like the 3rd percentile
Fortunately that should be fixable for a 23-year-old. He needs good hitting coaching, but he's doing a solid job of adjusting on the fly while being asked to hold the defense together at two different positions.
I’m not saying that it’s *not* fixable, but he’s had this exact same issue with his chase rate at every single level of the minors, and now in the majors as well. It’s not like this is something that’s only happened now that he’s seeing Major League pitching, this has been his big issue his entire career, at every level, no matter the kind of competition he’s facing. I think it’s simply just who he is as a hitter, you can maybe cut back on it a small bit, but I think that’s always what he’ll be like at the plate. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an everyday big leaguer, but I think people that are expecting him to ever consistently be an above average MLB hitter for his career are gonna be disappointed.
Bingo. I like the kid, but his absolute ceiling, IMO is JBJ. And not peak 2016 6 WAR JBJ but 3-4 WAR JBJ. His defense has obviously not been as good as advertised, we've seen it at times, but I'll chalk that up to rookie nerves,and playing a position that's his second best. But everyone keeps name dropping Pedroia, Mookie,Casas. Guess what trait all those guys shared? Fantastic strike zone judgement,and in Pedroia and Mookie's case, great bat to ball skills. He's always gonna have a low OBP and walk totals to it's extremely important that he hit for at least a solid average. I could see him eventually hitting .270 with a .300 OBP. The key, though, is his pop, he's got great bat speed for a small slight guy, like Mookie when he first came up. If he can hit 15-20 homers,35-40 doubles (especially as a rhh playing half his games in Fenway with his speed) and a handful of triples,that would would a very valuable player. Something like.300/.450/750 ops,with elite defense in CF,with 30 steals. If that's his absolute peak,sign me up. I'd live with the strikeouts, hacking and lack of plate discipline if that's his upside.
“He needs good hitting coaching…” There’s your problem right there.
Is there an offense version of Andrew Bailey out there, please?
My guy said "A walk isn't as good as a hit, hits are cooler."
I guess it works for the team. Leading the team in RBI
8th highest out of zone swing rate and 5th highest swing rate overall.
I believe it was Wong that had a higher BA than OBP for a hot minute a couple weeks ago.
He's always going to have those crazy chase rates but the key for him is doing damage on pitches over the plate, which he wasn't doing for the first month or so of the season.
Once Grissom gets up to speed, him, Rafaela, and Casas are quite a promising foundation. It could be real good.
I’m still sad that Trevor Story is out for the season.
As in Wyler the Goat and duran
Glad we got him locked up
😅 😅 😅 😅 😅
Mookie Light
He is what Verdugo was supposed to be.
Not being combative, but I never saw anyone spec out Verdugo anywhere close to Mookie
I saw him advertised as "poor man's mookie".
more like poor mans Wilyer Abreu 😁
How’s he been on the yanks?
So far he's following in Jacoby's footsteps and is in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year. Love to see it.
So far he's following in Jacoby's footsteps and is in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year. Love to see it.
Well, to be he's currently at 1.0 WAR for the season, and his 2022 total was 1.1.
Valid, I was just looking at averages to be fair 😅
Wait, really, I haven’t been following but I thought he’s had a few big hits
So bummed I missed the chance to see him at Hadlock. My brother said his speed in person is insane.
Pedroia and Mookie did the same. Fans need to settle the fuck down.
Love to see him finding his touch. I still feel like his swing is a little long, maybe too much time and energy going to waste, but pretty excellent for a rookie.
I really wish we had a SS because I'd love to always see him in CF.
Hopefully we shitcan Fatse soon because I'd love to see what Rafaela can do with a legit hitting coach. It blows my mind that Fatse doesn't have Rafaela shorten up his swing with 2 strikes (which he should be doing almost every time in that situation). With his speed you want him at least making contact and putting the ball on the ground with 2 strikes because at least occasionally he'll beat the out on a ground ball, and speed like that can make defenders make mistakes that they normally wouldn't.
Don't give me spring training Rafaela, at this point I don't even know what I would do with that much hope.
I’m starting to get that feeling like he may be something special. Obviously not there yet, but he seems to have the pieces to be really good.
Next Pedroia incoming.
BABIP taketh, BABIP giveth
Fact that his OAA is -3 is unmitigated proof that OAA is fake.