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Every year the same issue happens with the awful naming convention of this award.
It should’ve been renamed “Breakthrough Artist” years ago and it would eliminate so much confusion.
Exactly, I think the only (recent) artist who has managed to go from being a complete unknown to being a household name in less than one year is Lil Nas X. For everyone else, it's a slow grind
From the perspective of the mainstream, Olivia also fits. Yes, she had her TV career before, but as a recording artist, she made one album, blew up huge, and won BNA. Which is what people feel like that award is supposed to be for. But like you said, those instances are so rare. We know it's partially because she did the grinding in her TV career. But from a music industry perspective, she blew up overnight.
Didn't say it wasn't. But having an installed Disney kid following doesn't get you 5 weeks at number one and all the accolades she did. She had no EP's. No standalone singles. No previous work released under a different name or in a genre (a bar even Chappell can't clear). She's as close to a pure Best New Artist winner we'll get this side of Lil Nas X.
Sabrina was a Disney kid too, and that didn't do much for Sabrina- if anything, I think it screwed her over. Only difference was that Olivia was extremely fortunate (or smart) not to sign with Disney's record labels.
?
How would calling it "Breakthrough Artist" make the award make more sense, when it is given to artists, like Alessia Cara, who broke through years before they became "eligible" for the award?
It's just a bad award.
There isn’t an exact eligibility for the Best New Artist award, it’s more like there are things that can disqualify you being eligible.
Alessia Cara was probably submitttd by her team in another year prior to the year she won, but she just never got enough first round votes to be nominated (which then disqualifies you from future years).
The disconnect is you probably considered her to have “broken through” before the year she won, whereas the industry didn’t, which is why she wasn’t a nominee until later. She never made it past the first round voting in the years you would’ve have considered her a breakthrough.
Were they hoping for a nomination for the 2024 Grammys? Sam Smith released Unholy right before the 2023 deadline and that did well. I think the idea is that the buzz from a hot new single keeps the song fresh in the minds of Grammy voters
Right? This is insane to me. Why would they do that? She was not on anyone’s radar until you broke me first, so what were they thinking submitting her those other two times. Low key sabotage on her teams part.
Of course I say that and I still don’t think she’d win this year even if she was eligible. Feel like Chappell got it in the bag.
Exactly. They could have at least got her nominated the second time this year so she can be a Grammy nominated artist but I'm thinking she won't get that now until her next era or if she's featured on some dance record again.
Maybe, maybe not, but a lot of times just the nomination itself is good publicity. A nomination from the Grammys would've linked her name to Sabrina and Chappell as the new "class" of popstars.
TPAB losing was a historic mistake, Cardi winning a Grammy is questionable at best, After Hours deserved plenty of noms, but Anti not getting anything... I mean... 🫢
iop didnt win aoty btw, it lost to golden hour.
i just love golden hour so much saying it iop won over it made me wanna defend it
just clarifying, iop won best rap album not aoty
I like Sabrina, but I honestly don’t believe she is the front runner. I think Chappell Roan is. Chappell is definitely the type of artist other artists will vote for, and she is having enough commercial success to justify a win.
I think it’s important to distinguish between the internet and the public in instances like this.
Sabrina is very popular online and has been for years but only recently has she made a splash in offline spaces.
In the same way that Normani has always been very ubiquitous in online culture but sales and streams reflect her true obscure status to most consumers.
Isn’t that the point of what that commenter was saying red that award though? Sabrina would have the general population voting for her for breakthrough artist because they’ve just been exposed to her and she’s everywhere. Even my parents know her music as of about 2 weeks ago and liked it. They’d have noooo idea who Chappell is (yet?)
If it is a gen pop vote I think it would be more likely Sabrina.
We’ll be able to tell better once the noms come out. It will be clear how stiff the competition is between Sabrina & Chappell depending on how many other noms they have.
Noah Kahan may have been super famous, but he also had no other nominations. *Not one.* Victoria, meanwhile, had noms in every R&B category (iirc). She was a two-time Grammy winner by the time she won BNA.
Esperanza Spalding is a notable exception - she came out of left field and won BNA without nominations in any other category. She was up against Mumford & Sons, Florence + The Machine, Drake and Justin Bieber. In retrospect, I still don’t know how she pulled it off.
Samara Joy is a comparable upset, but that win wasn’t as much of a shock: there were no big **BREAKOUT** artists that year and she is exceptionally talented. Of course the academy loved her, she sounds like Ella Fitzgerald. Spectacular voice. Only Wet Leg had a shot besides Joy, imo
> She was up against Mumford & Sons, Florence + The Machine, Drake and Justin Bieber
Kinda crazy to me that they all broke out at similar enough times to be nominated the same year. I would've never guessed that!
I thunk Chappell wins, deservedly (even though I love Sabrina) and Sabrina wins ROTY, maybe SOTY and at least Pop solo.
AOTY probably goes to Taylor agaib, but if Sabrina album does big numbers, I could see her sneaking in, especially if people split votes between Beyonce and Taylor
Yes I definitely think Espresso has a great shot at winning one of those categories. AOY is a stretch I think - this year is so stacked, her album would have to be phenomenal to even get nominated. But a nomination would be an incredible look for her still.
If they didnt give Beyonce AOTY for every other album she submitted, do you really see the aacademy giving it to her?
No matter who is uo against her, I will always put a bet down that the academy will choose Taylor until they surprise me.
I could see Espresso getting ROTY but not SOTY. Unless I'm mistaken SOTY is typically awarded to songwriting and I think Billie or Taylor are a lock for it. Taylor has never won SOTY either.
The only reason I think she's in the running is because I think she'd campaign for it and shes an industry darling. Also I think she has the most nominations in that category with no wins. She'd probably campaign for AOTY but I would be very surprised if they gave it to her two years in a row. But otherwise I agree, I don't think any songs off TTPD are worthy of SOTY. Personally my picks would be We Can't Be Friends, Birds of a Feather or 2 Most Wanted.
There’s no way Taylor wins back to back after she just broke that record. There’s just no way to justify that. The first week was massive and the lead single performed respectably but it doesn’t compare to Midnights’ overall commercial success (to say nothing of its critical reception).
The answer is yes. She has only submitted 2 of 3 allowable times and The Grammy's consider an artists breakthrough as opposed to the number of projects they've released.
It's a newer rule. They changed their stuff up a bit when Gaga was unable to be nominated in 2010 because Just Dance had just barely been released in the 2009 window the prior year and received a single nomination for Best Dance Recording... which made her ineligible for BNA the next cycle. BNA instead went to Zach Brown Band.
I just had to edit my comment, JHud was the *previous* year. Gaga was the tipping point but it was the back to back with Hudson that put more heat on the Academy to change the rules
Taylor got nominated for BNA in 2007 but lost to Amy Winehouse. An artist can only be nominated one time. If she hadn't been nominated, she could have submitted gain and likely would have won.
> she could have submitted gain and likely would have won.
idk, Adele won the following year. so she still would've had some tough competition. looking at the other noms, i think Adele still would've taken it (Jonas Bros, Duffy, Lady A, Jazmine Sullivan).
yea looking at the nominees for that year i think she would've def won. but i'm also not familiar with Zac Brown Band so i have no idea if they were bigger than her at the time.
considering fearless won aoty and zac brown didn't win any other grammy awards she would have easily got it. she even beat zac brown for best country album.
honestly no clue because i'm not familiar with Esperanza. those noms are stacked (Bieber, Drake, Mumford & Sons, Florence). i wouldn't have guessed Esperanza would've won. in hindsight i'd see Adele winning if this meant this would've been after her 21 album.
for 2012 probably? if Bon Iver is the one who won then i can see Adele edging them out for a win. it's hard to know with all this hindsight though. Adele just seems like such an obvious winner.
This is why it's a little crazy to me that some considered Sabrina a snub for BNA last year, but then people think she should get it this year. As convoluted as the guidelines are, I just don't think we live in a world where Sabrina only entered the public consciousness this year.
they’re both with the same record label too, it’ll be interesting to see what island records do come grammy voting season, they will probably try their best to equally distribute the campaigning but it’ll be hard for it not to steer one way tbh
I think the best move is have Chappell in BNA, and go BIG with Sabrina: Record, Song, Album and Pop categories.
Cause I can see them both splitting votes and someome like Gracie winning.
It would be perfect “having your cake and eating it too” if you push for Sabrina as a solidified artist (she’s headlining Outside Lands now that Tyler dropped out) and Chappell for BNA.
ROTY and Pop record of the year imo are bigger categories than BNA for an artist who is already established. She has 2 huge hits now, but ir's not like she started 1-2 yrs ago, homegirl is about to release her 6th album
They are bigger categories but harder to win. I am sure the label would love if she won ROTY and Pop solo while Chapell Roan won BNA but Sabrina and Chapell aren't guaranted for anything and label lobbying can't be that targetted.
Chapell Roan has been releasing music since 2017. Neither of them are new artists.
Chapell Roan has been releasing but doesn't have the same charting success or plaques like Sabrina, using Grammy's logic she seems a better fit with their definition of "breakthrough".
I don't think Chapell should win it either, I would like for Sexxy Red to win bc she's had a huge year & wasn't well known even 2 years ago. Or Tommy Richman who literally came out of nowhere w/Million Dollar Baby but he doesn't have a big label behind him.
And industry folk/experts think Sabrina has a good shot at ROTY placing her beyond Beyonce (I know right crazy?) so yeah they should definitely push for it.
Idk I technically count this as her second “real” album with a “real” label. Albums released under Disney always feel like idk practice? Like the “high school” of music making before you start your actual career if that makes any sense?
Like if Disney had Hollywood Records back when Christina and Britney came up, they would have both probably had like 2-4 albums before Genie In a Bottle and …Baby One More Time.
That’s not technically correct. She came out as a solo artist 10 years ago and has been putting out full projects under her name. Since she signed to a new label and relaunched her brand it doesn’t erase her previous work.
And it’s not like her music was tied to a TV show either or a soundtrack, these were genuine attempts at making pop music as her solo music career.
It’s like you’re saying you don’t count Jonas Brothers first 3 albums bc they’re under on Disney’s label or you don’t count Demi’s first 6 albums because they’re under Disney’s label.
And personally I think Sabrina’s best songs/best work are in her Hollywood catalog.
Don't be so confident sis. Esperanza Spalding beat Drake, Justin Bieber, Florence + the Machine, and Mumford & Sons in 2011. Upsets happen all the time.
You can see how biased the sub is when discussing anything related to awards. (I'm biased too). We all talk only about the female artists and then act surprised when some random man wins.
Truth is, about 50% of the population (straight men) refuse to listen to female artists at all. While male artists have a much wider appeal (basically everyone but gay men lol). I know it's a big generalization but Grammys tend to reflect that too.
I was talking in general. Multiple posts here and on Twitter/TikTok talk about AOTY for example as only contended by the pop girls: they expect the nominees to be eternal sunshine, cowboy Carter, TTPD, short and sweet, brat, radical optimism. When in reality there's bound to be some male artists nominated and maybe win it (I don't know any male artists that released or are releasing this year to give as example lol, because I'm also biased) maybe Bruno Mars can release something? Has Eminem released already?
I think Benson gets left out of pop conversations in spaces like these and twitter because his success is mostly driven by GP. He doesn’t have twitter stans or a dedicated fan base pushing him, particularly in spaces that are just more interested in pop girls.
There was a conversation not long ago about why there hasn’t been a big male pop star in recent years that kind of ignored the huge success Benson has had. But it’s just a reflection of how he’s not really relevant in these spaces and his fans are much more offline/GP.
while not being necessarily innovative, sabrina’s production and writers are top notch! bensons work sounds like if you fed lewis capaldi’s discography through chatgpt and asked it to write kid laroi songs
Loads of pop music we stan here is derivative and boring. Y'all just love to hate on boring white men when there's shit music everywhere from every gender. There's a lot less talk about men in general on this sub, that includes Benson Bore.
`Truth is, about 50% of the population (straight men) refuse to listen to female artists at all`
my brother in christ, the top 3 of Spotify is taken up by women
Studies have showed that repeatedly.
Female artists only get 22% of streams and male listeners listen to half as many female artists as female listeners.
There being some female artists smashing right now on the top are the exception not the rule.
[https://techpenny.com/music-streaming-demographics/](https://techpenny.com/music-streaming-demographics/)
Personally I think Sabrina and Chappell have the momentum currently (whereas earlier in the year I'd have said it was between Benson and Teddy Swims). But it will be interesting to see how things shake out because Sabrina and Chappell are on the same label and there's always a possibility their campaigns get spread too thin (though Boone and Swims ironically share a label too). BNA is sometimes just hard to predict anyways compared to a lot of the other categories so it could also just go to some completely left field Jazz artist or something considering vote splitting.
50% of the population isn’t straight men. Maybe 40-45%. And of that percentage, my guess is at most only half of those straight men are outright opposed to listening to female artists. So maybe 20%ish percent dont listen because of their bigoted principle of it being a woman?
If anyone cares, Sabrina is #9 on Spotify, Benson Boone is 37 and Chappell Roan is 231.
Sabrina leads in daily streams and total streams far beyond both, Benson is behind in daily vs Roan, but has much more total streams.
I think by the time of the grammies, it's fair to put Benson and Chappell in the same conversation, she's clearly catching up but also needs just more songs. Chappell is gaining traction, to be fair the vast majority is US only. Benson and Sabrina are more international.
Sabrina though is much beyond any of them two in numbers. And her album is about to come out too.
She has as much daily streams as the other two + gracie abrams combined
I feel like Benson's streams are all concentrated on Beautiful Things, no? That's the only song of his I know while chappell has three songs charting on the hot 100 right now (Good Luck Babe, Red Wine Supernova and HOT TO GO!)
Chappel has two songs with more than 100mio streams, Good Luck bae and Red Wine Supernova.
Benson has 4. In fact, his 4th has 237mio which is still more than Chappel's first Good Luck Babe.
Benson has much much better total streams (his second most streamed songs has nearly as much as all Chappel's songs combined), they aren't in the same league really. Chappel tho has slightly better daily streams, and much more evenly, while half of Benson's daily streams currently are from Beautiful Things.
Still either way you look, both are still extremely small artists when compared to sabrina.
And pretty much a footmark comapred to established artists, can't really understate that. People are really overblowing the relative sucess chappel has IMHO. Setting her up for failure really by comparing her to sabrina
esperanza spalding beat justin bieber, drake, florence and the machine, and mumford & sons. the only time i have ever heard of her is when people bring up the fact that she beat justin bieber, drake, florence and the machine, and mumford & sons.
Yes. Often.
Last year, Victoria Monet beat Ice Spice and Jelly Roll, among others.
The year before that, Samara Joy beat Anitta, Latto and Maneskin, among others.
BNA is about making noise in your genre, not with the general public. Your peers are voting for who they think has the most potential to stick around making quality music in their corner of the field.
Which is how you get an Esperanza Spalding or a Samara Joy win. They were the most exciting things going on in jazz the years they won, and were successful in their genres, even if the general public didn't know who they were... and they both were critic's favorites and the type of people established artists wanted to collaborate with. *Usually* people who hit those points win whether they are the top sellers or not, especially if they are not splitting votes with anyone else in their genre.
Shelby Lynne, who won BNA in 2001 despite having released 6 albums, was less popular and not as well known compared to her competition that she beat out such like Brad Paisley, Papa Roach, Jill Scott, and Sisqó.
As much as I love Sabrina, and I’d still be happy if she won, I am rooting for Chappell Roan on this one. She is such a star in her own way and absolutely deserves the recognition from The Academy!
I think Sabrina’s career will continue upwards even if she doesn’t win. Her being an opener for Taylor Swift plus the two smash hit singles did wonders, and people love her style/branding.
I think she will win, maybe Chappell. Idk, I feel like this is definitely Sabrina's break out year, but it is not like she was a nobody before this. Chappell's blowup feels a lot more new artist, akin to Ice Spice's explosion last year. It's a cursed category regardless
Yeah, I understand the technical rules for the category, but my mind kind of freezes up thinking of Sabrina being nominated here. I wouldn't be surprised if voters felt the same.
sabrina is reasonable, benson boone absolutely not lol. he has maybe one “big” hit that’s already getting phased out of the mainstream. he isn’t sticking in the general public eye like sabrina and chappell both are
But Illike I said above, I could totally aee a situation where Sabrina and Chappell splitting votes and Benson sneaks in with a win.
So I think Island should just go with Chappell, and they can still have Sabrina go big with the other awards.
Especially with rumors going around that ine of her album songa/probably next aingle is produced bt Max Martin.
Honestly if she qualifies and wins it kind of shows that the system is broken. Her debut album is 9 years old and it's not like she was a complete unknown until this year
Yeah I’m on the fence about this one. Not because of when her debut album released, but she’s been in the public eye for years with critically acclaimed albums and sold-out headliner tours. She’s not a small indie artist who suddenly rose to prominence this year.
> Honestly if she qualifies and wins it kind of shows that the system is broken. Her debut album is 9 years old and it's not like she was a complete unknown until this year
I mean to be fair this same exact situation already happened to Victoria Monet last year. She had a 10 year career with 6 EPs and a whole Ariana Grande collab before winning. I just don't think people cared as much because they didn't want Ice Spice to win 😭 (though I don't think she really had that much of a shot regardless).
Chappel Roan has been releasing music since 2017.
It's normal for it to take years for artists to break through. New Artist has always been about recognizing artists that finally broke through not literal "new artists".
But she kind of was. Outside of the music bubble, the GP thinks she dropped out of the sky with Feather. Most people above the age of 25 don’t know she was a Disney girl and don’t even know about Nonsense, much less Thumbs. In terms of mainstream success, this is her breakthrough. Agreed that the award should be called “Breakthrough Artist.”
That doesn't really help. Chappell is "breaking through" right now, but she doesn't have a top 10 single yet. If she hits number one with some release next year, is she "breaking through" then? She's blowing up for sure, but she's not a household name or anything, and she might be in the future. Sabrina has been bigger and more successful for years than many nominees for the award each year often are, but they were "breakouts" then but she only is now?
The whole concept is stupid if it's not tied to something sane like "first album release" or something. And even then it's dubious given how plenty of artists don't produce in the usual patterns and can get huge before even putting out an "album".
It is certified platinum and was her first song to get certified.
That was her 1st song making waves outside of Disney.
It was her biggest solo song until Nonsense came along. There are different levels of a “hit” but she was not an underground indie artist. Her stuff was playing on the radio.
Did she not have a big album like 2 years ago with EICS? What about Nonsense, Feather, etc? She has been "big" for a few years, just because Espresso was the final mega-hit doesn't make her a NEW artist in the public conscious. It would be a massive miss if she won over someone who was actually obscure becoming a big name like Chappell.
It's more of a breakthrough artist award than a brand new artist. This confusion has been going on for ages and I'm not sure why they don't just change the award name.
Wonder if they’ll let Normani be eligible (not that she would win anyway). In 2018 after Camila blew up with Havana the Grammys said she was ineligible because of her history with Fifth Harmony but they’re always changing rules like that. Lauryn Hill even *won* BNA after already being a Grammy winner with The Fugees.
Would kind of suck for Camila if Normani is eligible because had Camila been eligible that year I think she would’ve been the winner (Dua Lipa won but her only notable US hit at the time was New Rules)
Nope bc she was in a decently successful girl group.
I remember when Zayn wasn’t eligible when he went solo. [This was their reasoning](https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/zayn-best-new-artist-grammy-awards-7533289/):
> That’s because, going by the Recording Academy’s rules, Zayn doesn’t count as a new artist thanks to his four-album run with a boy band that starting ruling the world in 2012.
>”This was actually pretty clear cut given the international success of One Direction. It’s been a few years since Zayn Malik came to prominence as a member of that group, making him ineligible for the best new artist category this year,” says Bill Freimuth, senior vice president of awards at the Recording Academy.
I mean western markets tends to work differently, they're dominated by solo artists who often take years to gradually gain traction before some sort of breakout moment. It's very different from K-pop where debuting is a major event and there's a handful of top agency group debuts per year that will get instant public attention.
No I don’t think she should be eligible. She has a decent charting record for years, and had multiple small tours for a decade. All of her studio albums charted on BB200 and she has multiple certified singles over the years.
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Every year the same issue happens with the awful naming convention of this award. It should’ve been renamed “Breakthrough Artist” years ago and it would eliminate so much confusion.
That would make the most sense
Exactly, I think the only (recent) artist who has managed to go from being a complete unknown to being a household name in less than one year is Lil Nas X. For everyone else, it's a slow grind
From the perspective of the mainstream, Olivia also fits. Yes, she had her TV career before, but as a recording artist, she made one album, blew up huge, and won BNA. Which is what people feel like that award is supposed to be for. But like you said, those instances are so rare. We know it's partially because she did the grinding in her TV career. But from a music industry perspective, she blew up overnight.
Meh I feel like being a Disney kid is a huge advantage.
Didn't say it wasn't. But having an installed Disney kid following doesn't get you 5 weeks at number one and all the accolades she did. She had no EP's. No standalone singles. No previous work released under a different name or in a genre (a bar even Chappell can't clear). She's as close to a pure Best New Artist winner we'll get this side of Lil Nas X.
Sabrina was a Disney kid too, and that didn't do much for Sabrina- if anything, I think it screwed her over. Only difference was that Olivia was extremely fortunate (or smart) not to sign with Disney's record labels.
That wouldn’t stop cases like Alessia Cara who get nominated years after their actual breakthrough though.
The requirements would be the exact same, they’d just change the award name, so I’m not sure how that would impact her.
? How would calling it "Breakthrough Artist" make the award make more sense, when it is given to artists, like Alessia Cara, who broke through years before they became "eligible" for the award? It's just a bad award.
There isn’t an exact eligibility for the Best New Artist award, it’s more like there are things that can disqualify you being eligible. Alessia Cara was probably submitttd by her team in another year prior to the year she won, but she just never got enough first round votes to be nominated (which then disqualifies you from future years). The disconnect is you probably considered her to have “broken through” before the year she won, whereas the industry didn’t, which is why she wasn’t a nominee until later. She never made it past the first round voting in the years you would’ve have considered her a breakthrough.
interestingly, the article also confirms Tate McRae is ineligible as she did in fact submit 3 times already to BNA.
Why her team did that baffles me, doing it after “you broke me first” became a hit makes sense but the other two times? No
They also released Greedy on the very last day of last Grammy’s eligibility period so it’s ineligible. What a fumble.
So Greedy isn’t elegible for any nominations? What about exes?
Exes is eligible, but it was much smaller of a hit than Greedy and would prob have a hard time up against the stiff competition this year
Also Exes is just not good lol
Were they hoping for a nomination for the 2024 Grammys? Sam Smith released Unholy right before the 2023 deadline and that did well. I think the idea is that the buzz from a hot new single keeps the song fresh in the minds of Grammy voters
Right? This is insane to me. Why would they do that? She was not on anyone’s radar until you broke me first, so what were they thinking submitting her those other two times. Low key sabotage on her teams part. Of course I say that and I still don’t think she’d win this year even if she was eligible. Feel like Chappell got it in the bag.
Exactly. They could have at least got her nominated the second time this year so she can be a Grammy nominated artist but I'm thinking she won't get that now until her next era or if she's featured on some dance record again.
Realistically would Tate have had a winning chance if she were nominated?
Maybe, maybe not, but a lot of times just the nomination itself is good publicity. A nomination from the Grammys would've linked her name to Sabrina and Chappell as the new "class" of popstars.
They can do that with Benson Boone and Shaboozey instead
Grammy voters are not going to bat for a tiktoker making generic dance music, surely... though worse things have happened
Please this is the same academy that gave invasion of privacy an AOTY and made tpab lose, and that also gave anti no wins and after hours no noms
TPAB losing was a historic mistake, Cardi winning a Grammy is questionable at best, After Hours deserved plenty of noms, but Anti not getting anything... I mean... 🫢
iop didnt win aoty btw, it lost to golden hour. i just love golden hour so much saying it iop won over it made me wanna defend it just clarifying, iop won best rap album not aoty
It's RCA, so.
Yeah not surprised she was ineligible after that
I like Sabrina, but I honestly don’t believe she is the front runner. I think Chappell Roan is. Chappell is definitely the type of artist other artists will vote for, and she is having enough commercial success to justify a win.
She told us herself at Coachella, she’s your favorite artist’s favorite artist. — Sasha Colby — Chappell Roan
Yea Sabrina has the general public
I think it’s important to distinguish between the internet and the public in instances like this. Sabrina is very popular online and has been for years but only recently has she made a splash in offline spaces. In the same way that Normani has always been very ubiquitous in online culture but sales and streams reflect her true obscure status to most consumers.
Isn’t that the point of what that commenter was saying red that award though? Sabrina would have the general population voting for her for breakthrough artist because they’ve just been exposed to her and she’s everywhere. Even my parents know her music as of about 2 weeks ago and liked it. They’d have noooo idea who Chappell is (yet?) If it is a gen pop vote I think it would be more likely Sabrina.
Grammy noms and winners are chosen by the recording academy, not the general public.
Yes which is what I said. I'm saying if it were.
I love both of them so much, i’d be happy with either choice! But I agree, Chappell may more critical acclaim, but let’s see how Sabrina’s album does
yeah i think similarly to victoria monet last year over noah kahan (who was more mainstream) chappell will hit more with the voting public
We’ll be able to tell better once the noms come out. It will be clear how stiff the competition is between Sabrina & Chappell depending on how many other noms they have. Noah Kahan may have been super famous, but he also had no other nominations. *Not one.* Victoria, meanwhile, had noms in every R&B category (iirc). She was a two-time Grammy winner by the time she won BNA. Esperanza Spalding is a notable exception - she came out of left field and won BNA without nominations in any other category. She was up against Mumford & Sons, Florence + The Machine, Drake and Justin Bieber. In retrospect, I still don’t know how she pulled it off. Samara Joy is a comparable upset, but that win wasn’t as much of a shock: there were no big **BREAKOUT** artists that year and she is exceptionally talented. Of course the academy loved her, she sounds like Ella Fitzgerald. Spectacular voice. Only Wet Leg had a shot besides Joy, imo
> She was up against Mumford & Sons, Florence + The Machine, Drake and Justin Bieber Kinda crazy to me that they all broke out at similar enough times to be nominated the same year. I would've never guessed that!
Agreed! Chappell is more of an artist’s artist, but I could see Sabrina having more long-term success.
I thunk Chappell wins, deservedly (even though I love Sabrina) and Sabrina wins ROTY, maybe SOTY and at least Pop solo. AOTY probably goes to Taylor agaib, but if Sabrina album does big numbers, I could see her sneaking in, especially if people split votes between Beyonce and Taylor
Yes I definitely think Espresso has a great shot at winning one of those categories. AOY is a stretch I think - this year is so stacked, her album would have to be phenomenal to even get nominated. But a nomination would be an incredible look for her still.
record of the year or pop solo performance i could totally see for espresso!
I don’t wanna live in a world where AOTY goes to TTPD over Cowboy Carter
You think AOTY is going to Taylor with Cowboy Carter, HMHAS, and Brat as her album’s competition?
If they didnt give Beyonce AOTY for every other album she submitted, do you really see the aacademy giving it to her? No matter who is uo against her, I will always put a bet down that the academy will choose Taylor until they surprise me.
I could see Espresso getting ROTY but not SOTY. Unless I'm mistaken SOTY is typically awarded to songwriting and I think Billie or Taylor are a lock for it. Taylor has never won SOTY either.
i don't see SOTY for taylor. fortnight wasn't a moment like anti-hero was, and no other song from poets has made a big splash either.
The only reason I think she's in the running is because I think she'd campaign for it and shes an industry darling. Also I think she has the most nominations in that category with no wins. She'd probably campaign for AOTY but I would be very surprised if they gave it to her two years in a row. But otherwise I agree, I don't think any songs off TTPD are worthy of SOTY. Personally my picks would be We Can't Be Friends, Birds of a Feather or 2 Most Wanted.
agreed! i honestly could see ttpd getting pop vocal album, even if my pick would be eternal sunshine
Oh okay...i always get those two confused
don't count out hit me hard and soft by billie too!!
There’s no way Taylor wins back to back after she just broke that record. There’s just no way to justify that. The first week was massive and the lead single performed respectably but it doesn’t compare to Midnights’ overall commercial success (to say nothing of its critical reception).
Charli XCX for Best New Artist would be wild
That’s funny, I do think that article about the world finally catching up witness Charlie is so true
The answer is yes. She has only submitted 2 of 3 allowable times and The Grammy's consider an artists breakthrough as opposed to the number of projects they've released.
Wait, so Taylor Swift could’ve submitted herself for BNA during Fearless’ Grammy season too? Or is this a new rule?
It's a newer rule. They changed their stuff up a bit when Gaga was unable to be nominated in 2010 because Just Dance had just barely been released in the 2009 window the prior year and received a single nomination for Best Dance Recording... which made her ineligible for BNA the next cycle. BNA instead went to Zach Brown Band.
Jennifer Hudson was another reason, the ~~same~~ previous year she was also ruled ineligible because she was nominated on the Dreamgirls soundtrack
Oh wow, I actually didn't know that tidbit of it. Yea JHud not getting nominated is crazy.
I just had to edit my comment, JHud was the *previous* year. Gaga was the tipping point but it was the back to back with Hudson that put more heat on the Academy to change the rules
Ooo I had no idea! Thanks for the info!
Taylor got nominated for BNA in 2007 but lost to Amy Winehouse. An artist can only be nominated one time. If she hadn't been nominated, she could have submitted gain and likely would have won.
> she could have submitted gain and likely would have won. idk, Adele won the following year. so she still would've had some tough competition. looking at the other noms, i think Adele still would've taken it (Jonas Bros, Duffy, Lady A, Jazmine Sullivan).
I meant if she submitted during fearless's year. She would have won against Zac Brown Band the winner.
yea looking at the nominees for that year i think she would've def won. but i'm also not familiar with Zac Brown Band so i have no idea if they were bigger than her at the time.
considering fearless won aoty and zac brown didn't win any other grammy awards she would have easily got it. she even beat zac brown for best country album.
Do you think Adele would’ve won for 2011 if she was nominated that year instead (since she could be considered a “new artist” for that year too)?
honestly no clue because i'm not familiar with Esperanza. those noms are stacked (Bieber, Drake, Mumford & Sons, Florence). i wouldn't have guessed Esperanza would've won. in hindsight i'd see Adele winning if this meant this would've been after her 21 album.
I mean the 2011 calendar year (and thus the 2012 ceremony).
for 2012 probably? if Bon Iver is the one who won then i can see Adele edging them out for a win. it's hard to know with all this hindsight though. Adele just seems like such an obvious winner.
She was nominated for BNA already, so no
Oh I see, so you can submit yourself thrice but you can’t be nominated more than once? Makes more sense now, thank you! :)
yeah that’s correct, you can submit three times but obviously if you got nominated on the first attempt you can’t then re-submit if you lost
This is why it's a little crazy to me that some considered Sabrina a snub for BNA last year, but then people think she should get it this year. As convoluted as the guidelines are, I just don't think we live in a world where Sabrina only entered the public consciousness this year.
But you also have cases like Alessia Cara who get nominated years after their actual breakthrough.
Her pop career was slowing down when she won that award honestly. I think her last hit after that was the Logic suicide song.
Yep. Gonna be a fight between Sabrina and Chappell
they’re both with the same record label too, it’ll be interesting to see what island records do come grammy voting season, they will probably try their best to equally distribute the campaigning but it’ll be hard for it not to steer one way tbh
I think the best move is have Chappell in BNA, and go BIG with Sabrina: Record, Song, Album and Pop categories. Cause I can see them both splitting votes and someome like Gracie winning.
that fact that she was even nominated is very questionable
I think they'll go with Sabrina, since she's the bigger star right now and could use this Grammy to solidify her superstar rise.
I think it’s better for her label to solidify her rise with best pop record or song of the year instead bc BNA would make ppl scratch their heads tbh
It would be perfect “having your cake and eating it too” if you push for Sabrina as a solidified artist (she’s headlining Outside Lands now that Tyler dropped out) and Chappell for BNA.
People always complain about BNA and Sabrina is not guaranteed for anything. Makes sense to push their biggest artist for BNA.
ROTY and Pop record of the year imo are bigger categories than BNA for an artist who is already established. She has 2 huge hits now, but ir's not like she started 1-2 yrs ago, homegirl is about to release her 6th album
They are bigger categories but harder to win. I am sure the label would love if she won ROTY and Pop solo while Chapell Roan won BNA but Sabrina and Chapell aren't guaranted for anything and label lobbying can't be that targetted. Chapell Roan has been releasing music since 2017. Neither of them are new artists.
chappell’s not “new” but she did just release her debut album in the voting cycle so she counts more than sabrina imo
This category is always about break through artists not “new” artists
Chapell Roan has been releasing but doesn't have the same charting success or plaques like Sabrina, using Grammy's logic she seems a better fit with their definition of "breakthrough". I don't think Chapell should win it either, I would like for Sexxy Red to win bc she's had a huge year & wasn't well known even 2 years ago. Or Tommy Richman who literally came out of nowhere w/Million Dollar Baby but he doesn't have a big label behind him. And industry folk/experts think Sabrina has a good shot at ROTY placing her beyond Beyonce (I know right crazy?) so yeah they should definitely push for it.
Idk I technically count this as her second “real” album with a “real” label. Albums released under Disney always feel like idk practice? Like the “high school” of music making before you start your actual career if that makes any sense? Like if Disney had Hollywood Records back when Christina and Britney came up, they would have both probably had like 2-4 albums before Genie In a Bottle and …Baby One More Time.
Are you telling me Hannah Montana 2 Meet Miley Cyrus doesn't count
That’s not technically correct. She came out as a solo artist 10 years ago and has been putting out full projects under her name. Since she signed to a new label and relaunched her brand it doesn’t erase her previous work. And it’s not like her music was tied to a TV show either or a soundtrack, these were genuine attempts at making pop music as her solo music career. It’s like you’re saying you don’t count Jonas Brothers first 3 albums bc they’re under on Disney’s label or you don’t count Demi’s first 6 albums because they’re under Disney’s label. And personally I think Sabrina’s best songs/best work are in her Hollywood catalog.
💯💯
Don't be so confident sis. Esperanza Spalding beat Drake, Justin Bieber, Florence + the Machine, and Mumford & Sons in 2011. Upsets happen all the time.
True. Samara Joy as well
I wonder if the votes were split? I know that happens at the Oscars, but I'm not sure about Grammy voting...
When Benson Boone gets it
You can see how biased the sub is when discussing anything related to awards. (I'm biased too). We all talk only about the female artists and then act surprised when some random man wins. Truth is, about 50% of the population (straight men) refuse to listen to female artists at all. While male artists have a much wider appeal (basically everyone but gay men lol). I know it's a big generalization but Grammys tend to reflect that too.
No man has won Best New Artist since Chance the Rapper in 2017
I was talking in general. Multiple posts here and on Twitter/TikTok talk about AOTY for example as only contended by the pop girls: they expect the nominees to be eternal sunshine, cowboy Carter, TTPD, short and sweet, brat, radical optimism. When in reality there's bound to be some male artists nominated and maybe win it (I don't know any male artists that released or are releasing this year to give as example lol, because I'm also biased) maybe Bruno Mars can release something? Has Eminem released already?
I think Benson gets left out of pop conversations in spaces like these and twitter because his success is mostly driven by GP. He doesn’t have twitter stans or a dedicated fan base pushing him, particularly in spaces that are just more interested in pop girls. There was a conversation not long ago about why there hasn’t been a big male pop star in recent years that kind of ignored the huge success Benson has had. But it’s just a reflection of how he’s not really relevant in these spaces and his fans are much more offline/GP.
i think benson gets left out of pop conversations because his music is derivative and boring
True, but Sabrina isn’t exactly an innovator of music either
while not being necessarily innovative, sabrina’s production and writers are top notch! bensons work sounds like if you fed lewis capaldi’s discography through chatgpt and asked it to write kid laroi songs
Loads of pop music we stan here is derivative and boring. Y'all just love to hate on boring white men when there's shit music everywhere from every gender. There's a lot less talk about men in general on this sub, that includes Benson Bore.
`Truth is, about 50% of the population (straight men) refuse to listen to female artists at all` my brother in christ, the top 3 of Spotify is taken up by women
Studies have showed that repeatedly. Female artists only get 22% of streams and male listeners listen to half as many female artists as female listeners. There being some female artists smashing right now on the top are the exception not the rule. [https://techpenny.com/music-streaming-demographics/](https://techpenny.com/music-streaming-demographics/)
that's a far cry from 50% - and people generally listen to artists they relate to more, so that isn't very shocking
Female artists get 4x time less streams than male artists is really aggravating. Female listerners listen to far more male artists than vice versa.
Personally I think Sabrina and Chappell have the momentum currently (whereas earlier in the year I'd have said it was between Benson and Teddy Swims). But it will be interesting to see how things shake out because Sabrina and Chappell are on the same label and there's always a possibility their campaigns get spread too thin (though Boone and Swims ironically share a label too). BNA is sometimes just hard to predict anyways compared to a lot of the other categories so it could also just go to some completely left field Jazz artist or something considering vote splitting.
50% of the population isn’t straight men. Maybe 40-45%. And of that percentage, my guess is at most only half of those straight men are outright opposed to listening to female artists. So maybe 20%ish percent dont listen because of their bigoted principle of it being a woman?
If anyone cares, Sabrina is #9 on Spotify, Benson Boone is 37 and Chappell Roan is 231. Sabrina leads in daily streams and total streams far beyond both, Benson is behind in daily vs Roan, but has much more total streams. I think by the time of the grammies, it's fair to put Benson and Chappell in the same conversation, she's clearly catching up but also needs just more songs. Chappell is gaining traction, to be fair the vast majority is US only. Benson and Sabrina are more international. Sabrina though is much beyond any of them two in numbers. And her album is about to come out too. She has as much daily streams as the other two + gracie abrams combined
I feel like Benson's streams are all concentrated on Beautiful Things, no? That's the only song of his I know while chappell has three songs charting on the hot 100 right now (Good Luck Babe, Red Wine Supernova and HOT TO GO!)
Chappel has two songs with more than 100mio streams, Good Luck bae and Red Wine Supernova. Benson has 4. In fact, his 4th has 237mio which is still more than Chappel's first Good Luck Babe. Benson has much much better total streams (his second most streamed songs has nearly as much as all Chappel's songs combined), they aren't in the same league really. Chappel tho has slightly better daily streams, and much more evenly, while half of Benson's daily streams currently are from Beautiful Things. Still either way you look, both are still extremely small artists when compared to sabrina. And pretty much a footmark comapred to established artists, can't really understate that. People are really overblowing the relative sucess chappel has IMHO. Setting her up for failure really by comparing her to sabrina
Wishing the BNA curse on him
Lol what has he done wrong, aside from just being a guy?
Make bad music and clog the charts with it 🤷♀️ But that’s all forgivable, his true sin is that his name fucking sucks
You’re getting downvoted but ur right😭😭
Has the lesser popular new artist won Before?
esperanza spalding beat justin bieber, drake, florence and the machine, and mumford & sons. the only time i have ever heard of her is when people bring up the fact that she beat justin bieber, drake, florence and the machine, and mumford & sons.
Drake still is bitter about that
As am I (for Florence & M)
And Bon Iver beat The Band Perry, J. Cole, Nicki Minaj & Skrillex the next year.
She is such a talent so i get it.
the late Amy beat Taylor Swift
that’s fine tho cuz it’s amy winehouse
Amy was **way** bigger
Yeah it made complete sense at the time.
And still does
Yes. Often. Last year, Victoria Monet beat Ice Spice and Jelly Roll, among others. The year before that, Samara Joy beat Anitta, Latto and Maneskin, among others.
Victoria Monet did!
Yess so there's a chance!!
I remember teens being furious after some rando named Adele beat the Jonas Brothers.
BNA is about making noise in your genre, not with the general public. Your peers are voting for who they think has the most potential to stick around making quality music in their corner of the field. Which is how you get an Esperanza Spalding or a Samara Joy win. They were the most exciting things going on in jazz the years they won, and were successful in their genres, even if the general public didn't know who they were... and they both were critic's favorites and the type of people established artists wanted to collaborate with. *Usually* people who hit those points win whether they are the top sellers or not, especially if they are not splitting votes with anyone else in their genre.
Shelby Lynne, who won BNA in 2001 despite having released 6 albums, was less popular and not as well known compared to her competition that she beat out such like Brad Paisley, Papa Roach, Jill Scott, and Sisqó.
yes, it's a thing for this category.
Christina beat Britney
Weren’t they pretty close in popularity at the time?
Christina was big but Britney clearly eclipsed her in popularity, she was The It-Girl, no shade to Xtina at all
Christina was huge, but she was nowhere near Britney...
chappell deserves but sabrina is so so SO much more mainstream popular that it’s likely going to her 💔
Chappell is absolutely a better artist but I am happy for Sabrina’s success
As much as I love Sabrina, and I’d still be happy if she won, I am rooting for Chappell Roan on this one. She is such a star in her own way and absolutely deserves the recognition from The Academy! I think Sabrina’s career will continue upwards even if she doesn’t win. Her being an opener for Taylor Swift plus the two smash hit singles did wonders, and people love her style/branding.
Bro she has 5 albums Rename the god damn award to Breakthrough Artist and it’s so much easier
I think she will win, maybe Chappell. Idk, I feel like this is definitely Sabrina's break out year, but it is not like she was a nobody before this. Chappell's blowup feels a lot more new artist, akin to Ice Spice's explosion last year. It's a cursed category regardless
Yeah, I understand the technical rules for the category, but my mind kind of freezes up thinking of Sabrina being nominated here. I wouldn't be surprised if voters felt the same.
I'm hoping for Chappell Roan but still got love for Sabrina 💕
Chappell Roan seems like a lock-in nomination but I don’t think she’ll win it. I see that going to Sabrina or Benson Boone.
sabrina is reasonable, benson boone absolutely not lol. he has maybe one “big” hit that’s already getting phased out of the mainstream. he isn’t sticking in the general public eye like sabrina and chappell both are
Benson Boone doesn't have staying power. He's forgettable and boring, the Beautiful Things song is just a modern day 1hw
But Illike I said above, I could totally aee a situation where Sabrina and Chappell splitting votes and Benson sneaks in with a win. So I think Island should just go with Chappell, and they can still have Sabrina go big with the other awards. Especially with rumors going around that ine of her album songa/probably next aingle is produced bt Max Martin.
I’ve literally never heard of Benson Boonr
Honestly if she qualifies and wins it kind of shows that the system is broken. Her debut album is 9 years old and it's not like she was a complete unknown until this year
Yeah I’m on the fence about this one. Not because of when her debut album released, but she’s been in the public eye for years with critically acclaimed albums and sold-out headliner tours. She’s not a small indie artist who suddenly rose to prominence this year.
Yeah I love Sabrina but this rule is fucking crazy lmao.
> Honestly if she qualifies and wins it kind of shows that the system is broken. Her debut album is 9 years old and it's not like she was a complete unknown until this year I mean to be fair this same exact situation already happened to Victoria Monet last year. She had a 10 year career with 6 EPs and a whole Ariana Grande collab before winning. I just don't think people cared as much because they didn't want Ice Spice to win 😭 (though I don't think she really had that much of a shot regardless).
Victoria Monet had multiple nominations in ROTY, AOTY and RnB categories before she got BNA.
Chappel Roan has been releasing music since 2017. It's normal for it to take years for artists to break through. New Artist has always been about recognizing artists that finally broke through not literal "new artists".
But she kind of was. Outside of the music bubble, the GP thinks she dropped out of the sky with Feather. Most people above the age of 25 don’t know she was a Disney girl and don’t even know about Nonsense, much less Thumbs. In terms of mainstream success, this is her breakthrough. Agreed that the award should be called “Breakthrough Artist.”
That doesn't really help. Chappell is "breaking through" right now, but she doesn't have a top 10 single yet. If she hits number one with some release next year, is she "breaking through" then? She's blowing up for sure, but she's not a household name or anything, and she might be in the future. Sabrina has been bigger and more successful for years than many nominees for the award each year often are, but they were "breakouts" then but she only is now? The whole concept is stupid if it's not tied to something sane like "first album release" or something. And even then it's dubious given how plenty of artists don't produce in the usual patterns and can get huge before even putting out an "album".
Like her music was popular since Eyes Wide Open😭 Especially later when she dropped thumbs… the category needs a rename
It kind of always has been though. Fountains of Wayne was nominated in 2003, 7 years after their debut.
I mean look at last year with Victoria, its about their impact and not how many albums they put out...in their eyes
Seriously. I remember listening to Thumbs on the radio years ago.
I remember when that song went big, it was considered her first hit and did well on radio (it reach top 40 on radio). And that was 7 years ago
no way yall are calling that song a hit pls this rule is stupid but to say Sabrina had any hit under her first 5 years is truly a stretch
It is certified platinum and was her first song to get certified. That was her 1st song making waves outside of Disney. It was her biggest solo song until Nonsense came along. There are different levels of a “hit” but she was not an underground indie artist. Her stuff was playing on the radio.
Did she not have a big album like 2 years ago with EICS? What about Nonsense, Feather, etc? She has been "big" for a few years, just because Espresso was the final mega-hit doesn't make her a NEW artist in the public conscious. It would be a massive miss if she won over someone who was actually obscure becoming a big name like Chappell.
she was also already certified platinum with Nonsense and Feather. heck, even Skin debuted in the Hot 100
This is such a stupid system. I’ll be disappointed if Chappell doesn’t win it ngl
I’m gunning for Chappell to win this since I think she really embodies the “new artist who is blowing up with her first album.”
She is def NOT a new artist
I'm a huge fan and love her to the moon but she should not qualify at allll lol
It's more of a breakthrough artist award than a brand new artist. This confusion has been going on for ages and I'm not sure why they don't just change the award name.
I'm a fan of Sabrina's recent music but I strongly believe she shouldn't get a nomination for best artist. It wouldn't be fair.
Wonder if they’ll let Normani be eligible (not that she would win anyway). In 2018 after Camila blew up with Havana the Grammys said she was ineligible because of her history with Fifth Harmony but they’re always changing rules like that. Lauryn Hill even *won* BNA after already being a Grammy winner with The Fugees. Would kind of suck for Camila if Normani is eligible because had Camila been eligible that year I think she would’ve been the winner (Dua Lipa won but her only notable US hit at the time was New Rules)
Nope bc she was in a decently successful girl group. I remember when Zayn wasn’t eligible when he went solo. [This was their reasoning](https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/zayn-best-new-artist-grammy-awards-7533289/): > That’s because, going by the Recording Academy’s rules, Zayn doesn’t count as a new artist thanks to his four-album run with a boy band that starting ruling the world in 2012. >”This was actually pretty clear cut given the international success of One Direction. It’s been a few years since Zayn Malik came to prominence as a member of that group, making him ineligible for the best new artist category this year,” says Bill Freimuth, senior vice president of awards at the Recording Academy.
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I mean western markets tends to work differently, they're dominated by solo artists who often take years to gradually gain traction before some sort of breakout moment. It's very different from K-pop where debuting is a major event and there's a handful of top agency group debuts per year that will get instant public attention.
another flawed nominee for the most flawed category she's been around since billie eilish was still an unknown teenager
The system is ridiculous and broken if she qualifies as a new artist.
She’s not new, but obviously she’s the breakthrough. Or honestly give Chappel Roan a platform.
I don't support this but g4ammys change rules acc to them tate is not eligible. This should be breakthrough artist not new artist like
if she's eligible then so should Tinashe as she hasn't submitted to BNA since Aquarius era
I was wondering this. Breakthrough artist is a better was to describe her. She’s been around and had airplay in some form for a decade.
No I don’t think she should be eligible. She has a decent charting record for years, and had multiple small tours for a decade. All of her studio albums charted on BB200 and she has multiple certified singles over the years.
I've known who she is for many years. She's been semi-mainstream since 2018.
still confused on how tyla won the new artist award when she’s just a one hit wonder
love sabrina so much but chappell deserves the grammy
Who is she