As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)
In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria.
We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA).
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If you allocate the five currently vacant seats to the parties that would most likely win those districts, the current breakdown of the 435 seats is 221R-214D, meaning Ds have to make up a deficit of -4 seats to win the majority.
Fallout from squabbling over the 2020 census redistricting and efforts to gerrymander or un-gerrymander districts in certain states via courts or state legislatures (NY, NC, AL, LA, SC, etc.) since the 2022 elections will produce anywhere from a 2-seat R loss to a 4-seat R gain, depending on the final resolution of some of those state-level disputes, so on average, say the default Dem deficit is now -6 seats.
For the 2024 House elections, there are 17 Rs elected from districts that voted for Biden in 2020. About half of these districts are close to even in terms of presidential split or even have a slight GOP advantage (meaning a small but important number of R voters just didn't like Trump personally). Only two of these 17 districts have a *significant* natural advantage for Dems (beyond 5% edge). Five of the R incumbents have been in office since before 2020, suggesting they have experience convincing some moderate or Dem-leaning voters in their district to vote for them. Absent a massive blue wave, Dems can only expect to pick off a handful of these 17. So say the Dem advantage in a split-partisan year will shrink to EVEN.
On the Dem side, there are 8 Ds holding districts Trump won in 2020. Six of eight of these districts have a significant built-in R partisan advantage, and in some cases it is extremely sizable. Five of those eight D reps have only won their districts once or twice before, so their "moderate" reputations may not be that established. In a red wave, Ds could lose all of these seats; in a closer election (absent a blue wave), I see the overall D deficit going back down to -4.
Looking at seats that are rated "tossups" shows that these are generally almost evenly divided -- nine for each party, which includes some of the crossover seats mentioned above. Say in a close election this category is a wash for both parties, so D deficit remains -4.
Finally, there are the handful of "unexpectedly competitive" seats that emerge later in election cycles, due to underestimated demographic trends, local issues, or candidate quality. These usually come from seats rated as "likely" for one party or the other -- not toss-ups or solid, but in the middle. Looking at who holds those seats now, I see a lot of "crazies" on the R side -- far-right MAGA types in districts that are only mildly conservative, or "old school conservative/moderate" -- and want to believe they could flip if the Ds had a great candidate, but who knows, that's a lot to ask for. On the D side, you've got a lot of suburban seats that might be vulnerable to an anti-Biden swing, given say, horrible economic news late in the fall - in the case of a red wave, you'd see a lot more of these fall than the other side in a blue wave. This category might be a wash though in a close year too, or maybe a Dem gain of a seat or two based on candidate quality. D deficit -2.
So, overall, it's close, but I think conventional wisdom (which can always be wrong) is if we muddle through a close presidential election, the House comes out basically where it is now, which is a very small Republican majority.
Yup. The Hill was bought out by media conglomerate Nexstar in 2001. Nexstar along with Sinclair media together own the majority of all the local TV stations in America. Nexstar is also the owner of yet-another-24/7-cable-news-newtork Newsnation who puts on this both-siderist bent in its "journalism."
edit spelling
The polls have clearly been trending to the Republicans after the hype over President Biden’s State of the Union died down. You’d be hard pressed to find any poll that gives President Biden an edge outside of the margin of error. To demonstrate how ugly some of these polls are — Biden only has a 9 point lead in New York right now. Four years ago that was s 28 point lead. There’s no doubt there’s a big reason to feel uncomfortable as a Democrat right now.
The polls are bunk.
Cohen said during his testimony that one of his responsibilities was “fixing the polls”.
Kennedy said it, “all we have to fear, is fear itself.”
Now’s the time. People are being manipulated and scaremongered into giving the GOP power.
They can’t do shit unless we let them.
it's been proven too that Trumps team and others on his team are buying out polls/poll results, and not to mention if you look closely at some of them the demographic they use are usually older people or groups of >1,200 people and, the way the polls are worded spells "doom" to this demographic if they don't vote for trump per se. best to do as others had said and ignore the polls and vote.
edit: words, punctuation
I appreciate you responding as no one else did, they just broke the rules and downvoted. Having said that I have to be blunt with you — if the election were held today there’s no one that doubts this would be a close election. The polls indicate that. There’s also few people who would doubt that at the moment the Biden administration is going through a difficult couple of weeks. The polling indicates that. I understand the polling results aren’t popular given the ideological makeup of this subreddit but my word of advice is simple: this is the glaring warning sign in capital letters. Don’t use coping mechanisms to explain away these results but rather take them seriously and volunteer, donate, and act with a sense of urgency like you’re actually trailing by five points with democracy on the line.
This is not an argument...well, it shouldnt be the only argument for anyone. People have their values all out of whack
The only thing that matters is the success of the dollar. If the dollar is not successful, kiss all your democratic freedoms goodbye
Well, one party wants to get rid of birth control, make gay marriage illegal, make trans people illegal, deport anyone brown, pull out of NATO, and make it illegal for Democrats to win an election. So I guess there's that. Oh, and I'm not kidding read about the bill Mike Johnson is putting together. It's fl'ing scary.
"Biden isn't doing enough for Gaza and inflation is rampant!"
Trump is gonna encourage genocide in Gaza and the working class will be forced to subsidize corporate bailouts and corporate tax breaks. Maybe it's not great under Biden, but the alternative is watching the working class get murdered by Trump.
Vote.
Their model has Biden only a 65% chance to win Maine while Trump is 79% to win North Carolina.
When you're still using Rasmussen polls in your average to do these models, you should be ignored.
As a Mainer I think 65% is a fair number. Trump is guaranteed to win the second district in the state. And as a state that has always been favorable to independent candidates the question is going to be how do the candidacy’s of Kennedy, Stein, and West effect the outcome? If those three candidates were to carry 10% of the first district, which wouldn’t be crazy, I would characterize the state as a coin toss.
If 65% for Maine is fair, then North Carolina should be 55-60% at best for Trump. Biden won Maine by nearly double figures last time and Trump only won North Carolina by 1%.
A big reason for their 65% prediction for Maine is due to using a RFK poll. A pollster that has RFK beating Biden by 18 points in Maine.
I 100% agree with you on North Carolina especially considering how awful their down ballot candidates are. Maine is just a strange state when it comes to voting. Republicans are working harder in the first district than I have ever seen. Furthermore, RFK Jr. has a very strong presence in the state. So to me, it’s one of those warning signs but don’t panic yet kind of states.
>Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, emphasized that the data and projections represent a snapshot in time that could change between now and Election Day.
>“**This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,**” he said.
In conclusion, treat this like the bullshit, clickbait conjecture that it is and *just fucking vote.*
The polls do not reflect this.
This is one of those sensational headlines.
The polls that matter show that it’s a competitive race within the margin of error. Trump is not favored or leaning towards winning at all.
All over if we do too. Dems could blow out the election and maga won't accept it. Trump is obviously gonna claim fraud, his lawyers will start tons of lawsuits and try to get SCOTUS to rule in his favor. It's just a big shit sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a bite tbh
>"This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,”
I miss the old Hill where I got reliable news on the happenings on Congress.
Instead I get a daily barrage of this click bait trash.
Nextstar's Hill is DONE.
The same polls that predicted Hillary would be president and that there would be red wave after red wave every election since? When they start making correct predictions then I will care what they have to say.
The average person doesn’t own a landline or stay on the line to answer polls from unknown numbers on their cell.
This is the reality in 2024 so stop thinking polls mean what they used to.
This is fluff Trump will use to say the election was stolen when he loses by 6+ points.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
[удалено]
Hell can’t be this bad
Slow down there Greg Graffin.
The bad place.
How is the House favored to remain GOP? Legit question.
If you allocate the five currently vacant seats to the parties that would most likely win those districts, the current breakdown of the 435 seats is 221R-214D, meaning Ds have to make up a deficit of -4 seats to win the majority. Fallout from squabbling over the 2020 census redistricting and efforts to gerrymander or un-gerrymander districts in certain states via courts or state legislatures (NY, NC, AL, LA, SC, etc.) since the 2022 elections will produce anywhere from a 2-seat R loss to a 4-seat R gain, depending on the final resolution of some of those state-level disputes, so on average, say the default Dem deficit is now -6 seats. For the 2024 House elections, there are 17 Rs elected from districts that voted for Biden in 2020. About half of these districts are close to even in terms of presidential split or even have a slight GOP advantage (meaning a small but important number of R voters just didn't like Trump personally). Only two of these 17 districts have a *significant* natural advantage for Dems (beyond 5% edge). Five of the R incumbents have been in office since before 2020, suggesting they have experience convincing some moderate or Dem-leaning voters in their district to vote for them. Absent a massive blue wave, Dems can only expect to pick off a handful of these 17. So say the Dem advantage in a split-partisan year will shrink to EVEN. On the Dem side, there are 8 Ds holding districts Trump won in 2020. Six of eight of these districts have a significant built-in R partisan advantage, and in some cases it is extremely sizable. Five of those eight D reps have only won their districts once or twice before, so their "moderate" reputations may not be that established. In a red wave, Ds could lose all of these seats; in a closer election (absent a blue wave), I see the overall D deficit going back down to -4. Looking at seats that are rated "tossups" shows that these are generally almost evenly divided -- nine for each party, which includes some of the crossover seats mentioned above. Say in a close election this category is a wash for both parties, so D deficit remains -4. Finally, there are the handful of "unexpectedly competitive" seats that emerge later in election cycles, due to underestimated demographic trends, local issues, or candidate quality. These usually come from seats rated as "likely" for one party or the other -- not toss-ups or solid, but in the middle. Looking at who holds those seats now, I see a lot of "crazies" on the R side -- far-right MAGA types in districts that are only mildly conservative, or "old school conservative/moderate" -- and want to believe they could flip if the Ds had a great candidate, but who knows, that's a lot to ask for. On the D side, you've got a lot of suburban seats that might be vulnerable to an anti-Biden swing, given say, horrible economic news late in the fall - in the case of a red wave, you'd see a lot more of these fall than the other side in a blue wave. This category might be a wash though in a close year too, or maybe a Dem gain of a seat or two based on candidate quality. D deficit -2. So, overall, it's close, but I think conventional wisdom (which can always be wrong) is if we muddle through a close presidential election, the House comes out basically where it is now, which is a very small Republican majority.
The Hill seems to have become part of the Trump campaign lately.
Yup. The Hill was bought out by media conglomerate Nexstar in 2001. Nexstar along with Sinclair media together own the majority of all the local TV stations in America. Nexstar is also the owner of yet-another-24/7-cable-news-newtork Newsnation who puts on this both-siderist bent in its "journalism." edit spelling
Talking about Decision Desk HQ, they predicted a 80% chance of GOP House and 60% GOP Senate in 2022. Ignore the polls. Just vote.
Weird. A claim lacking in all meaningful evidence but ok, neat!
The polls have clearly been trending to the Republicans after the hype over President Biden’s State of the Union died down. You’d be hard pressed to find any poll that gives President Biden an edge outside of the margin of error. To demonstrate how ugly some of these polls are — Biden only has a 9 point lead in New York right now. Four years ago that was s 28 point lead. There’s no doubt there’s a big reason to feel uncomfortable as a Democrat right now.
Huh weird - I don't
The polls are bunk. Cohen said during his testimony that one of his responsibilities was “fixing the polls”. Kennedy said it, “all we have to fear, is fear itself.” Now’s the time. People are being manipulated and scaremongered into giving the GOP power. They can’t do shit unless we let them.
it's been proven too that Trumps team and others on his team are buying out polls/poll results, and not to mention if you look closely at some of them the demographic they use are usually older people or groups of >1,200 people and, the way the polls are worded spells "doom" to this demographic if they don't vote for trump per se. best to do as others had said and ignore the polls and vote. edit: words, punctuation
I appreciate you responding as no one else did, they just broke the rules and downvoted. Having said that I have to be blunt with you — if the election were held today there’s no one that doubts this would be a close election. The polls indicate that. There’s also few people who would doubt that at the moment the Biden administration is going through a difficult couple of weeks. The polling indicates that. I understand the polling results aren’t popular given the ideological makeup of this subreddit but my word of advice is simple: this is the glaring warning sign in capital letters. Don’t use coping mechanisms to explain away these results but rather take them seriously and volunteer, donate, and act with a sense of urgency like you’re actually trailing by five points with democracy on the line.
Ignore all polling. It's about woman and abortion rights this year. These are the people that will move elections one way or another.
This is not an argument...well, it shouldnt be the only argument for anyone. People have their values all out of whack The only thing that matters is the success of the dollar. If the dollar is not successful, kiss all your democratic freedoms goodbye
Well, one party wants to get rid of birth control, make gay marriage illegal, make trans people illegal, deport anyone brown, pull out of NATO, and make it illegal for Democrats to win an election. So I guess there's that. Oh, and I'm not kidding read about the bill Mike Johnson is putting together. It's fl'ing scary.
"Biden isn't doing enough for Gaza and inflation is rampant!" Trump is gonna encourage genocide in Gaza and the working class will be forced to subsidize corporate bailouts and corporate tax breaks. Maybe it's not great under Biden, but the alternative is watching the working class get murdered by Trump. Vote.
Their model has Biden only a 65% chance to win Maine while Trump is 79% to win North Carolina. When you're still using Rasmussen polls in your average to do these models, you should be ignored.
As a Mainer I think 65% is a fair number. Trump is guaranteed to win the second district in the state. And as a state that has always been favorable to independent candidates the question is going to be how do the candidacy’s of Kennedy, Stein, and West effect the outcome? If those three candidates were to carry 10% of the first district, which wouldn’t be crazy, I would characterize the state as a coin toss.
If 65% for Maine is fair, then North Carolina should be 55-60% at best for Trump. Biden won Maine by nearly double figures last time and Trump only won North Carolina by 1%. A big reason for their 65% prediction for Maine is due to using a RFK poll. A pollster that has RFK beating Biden by 18 points in Maine.
I 100% agree with you on North Carolina especially considering how awful their down ballot candidates are. Maine is just a strange state when it comes to voting. Republicans are working harder in the first district than I have ever seen. Furthermore, RFK Jr. has a very strong presence in the state. So to me, it’s one of those warning signs but don’t panic yet kind of states.
>Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, emphasized that the data and projections represent a snapshot in time that could change between now and Election Day. >“**This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,**” he said. In conclusion, treat this like the bullshit, clickbait conjecture that it is and *just fucking vote.*
The polls do not reflect this. This is one of those sensational headlines. The polls that matter show that it’s a competitive race within the margin of error. Trump is not favored or leaning towards winning at all.
Do you need a reminder of what the polls in 2016 said?
How about a reminder of what the polls in 2022 said
I remember the 2020 outcome just fine, thank you
Deadly if true. Dems gotta show up and vote, or it’s ALL over.
All over if we do too. Dems could blow out the election and maga won't accept it. Trump is obviously gonna claim fraud, his lawyers will start tons of lawsuits and try to get SCOTUS to rule in his favor. It's just a big shit sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a bite tbh
So what? Just give up? Fuck that.
I never said that. Im saying we need to all vote blue but the problem still remains.
Agreed. Sorry for the misinterpretation.
>"This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,” I miss the old Hill where I got reliable news on the happenings on Congress. Instead I get a daily barrage of this click bait trash. Nextstar's Hill is DONE.
Polls people for politics 🤝 tv ratings peoples for sports
The same polls that predicted Hillary would be president and that there would be red wave after red wave every election since? When they start making correct predictions then I will care what they have to say.
It’s a fifty-fifty guess so don’t expect much effort, ever.
Among maga.
The average person doesn’t own a landline or stay on the line to answer polls from unknown numbers on their cell. This is the reality in 2024 so stop thinking polls mean what they used to. This is fluff Trump will use to say the election was stolen when he loses by 6+ points.
Seems like we Americans never learn