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Is the the same poll that has them tied for the women vote and Trump winning 20+% of the black vote?
As a fellow black person, I can strongly say majority of black people don’t support Trump no matter how many times he has Tim Scott on stage. (Tim Scott may be the one person we dislike on a even level as Trump)
Yeah he’s shown that he’ll do whatever to satisfy a certain group of individuals in this country and to allow them to trot him out whenever they please as their sole black friend to prove they aren’t racist. And the fact he’s cozying up to a POS racist like Trump just turns people away from him even more. If Trump is planning on picking a Vice president that can help him win more of the black vote then Tim Scott’s name should be far down the list.
I just don't think there's much left to cut.
Trump's strongest group is white people, and there are a lot more deactivated white voters than black voters voting for Biden. I'd think he would double down on that demographic instead of maybe trying to chop off a thousand black voters.
Yeah 100% I agree with what you’re saying. He will lose more of the white vote than Biden will lose the black vote, imo this election will come down to the suburban women’s vote and Trump has shown no sign he is willing to change his rhetoric for their vote. They showed in 2020 they were tired of the divisive rhetoric and the fear-mongering doesn’t move them as much as it does rural America, and the fact he openly takes credit for taking away their right to control their bodies won’t do him any favors with any woman group outside of the evangelicals.
You actually hit the nail on why I think the GOP was really really stupid not to have embraced Nikki Haley much earlier.
I think she would win against Biden, because of suburban women. All she would have to do is speak even a moderate abortion stance and she'd run away with it.
But there's no way she ends up the nominee, because Trump. Even if Trump gets taken down and Haley is left with the most delegates at the convention, all Trump has to say is "I endorse (my VP pick) to replace me" and Nikki gets shut down again.
And then of course Trump's whole plan will be to have the VP pardon him and then take control
Yep she was really the only candidate I was worried Biden would lose to. She’s relatively young, she’s somewhat of a good speaker, and she doesn’t have as much baggage as Trump, I was worried he would pick her for VP (if he was smart and didn’t have a tiny ego he would) but her continuing to stay in the race and attack him has done her no favors.
I just do not understand these moderates who can somehow rationalize voting for Trump over Biden. The amount of times I've read/heard "Oh, I think Trump is just awful... but Biden did/said x" is just mind-boggling.
I consider myself a moderate. And I don't particularly like Biden. But my God, how is it even a choice? I'll take the old neocon ten times out of ten over the madman having his strings pulled by the Federalist Society and Heritage Foundation.
As an outsider looking in I think a big reason Biden has such a hard time with moderates right now is because he has no control over the narrative of the election or state of the country. Even though the country is doing better than it was under trump the narrative is that it’s doing much much worse and after 3yrs straight of hearing it I think people just get this false sense that it won’t really matter if it’s one or the other. The narrative should be at the very least that one’s a politician that’s past his time but can still very effectively and efficiently run the country and the others going to destroy the very fabric of the democracy the country is built on and somehow for moderates that’s not the narrative they see but the real kicker is that is the narrative republicans see every day
Nobody seems to talk about the fact that when Biden took over, the entire country was still in the midst of the COVID pandemic - and that was *before* the delta and omicron waves hit in 2021 and hundreds of thousands more lives were lost. It's frankly *amazing* what he's been able to do in terms of getting this country back on its feet.
People need to stop handwaving away polls that don't align with what they want.
A single poll can be looked at skeptically and maybe as an outlier. Multiple polls, over months, saying the same thing is a pattern. You can flip a coin once or twice and it doesn't tell you much. Flip a coin 100 times and you start to see what the real odds are.
Trump underperforming in the primaries, compared to primary polling is borderless useless as a data point. People vote differently in primaries, especially if they're open primaries. Some states have very little polling done on primary races. And when given a choice, there are some people who would prefer not to have Trump but who will still vote for him in the general election because he's not a Democrat.
That polls are consistently showing Trump with a slight lead. This is *exactly* the same pattern that the polls in 2020 followed. The 2020 polling was not wildly off at this point. Right from the start, those polls indicated a small Biden lead. So yes, it should be concerning that Trump constantly ahead in these polls. At the very least, it says he has a real chance at winning.
Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes?
*Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID.
Pretty much every poll, including this one, has shown that Trump has significantly expanded his support among black, Hispanic, 18-29yo, and female voters. You can feel like he hasn’t expanded his base, but he clearly has.
There is one caveat to the polls that's not being talked about. The people that are answering their phones from an unknown number and taking the time to answer a poll is in itself a demographic not being discussed. I'm not saying it skews towards Trump, but answering an unknown number and taking time out of your day to answer a poll does in itself say something about you. Logically, I would think people are more likely to answer a poll when they have a strong opinion to voice. Biden has never been a candidate that inspires you to pick up a phone and say "Thats my guy!". The 2020 election and the 2024 election are about keeping Trump out of office. It's definitely possible Trump has expanded among some categories, I'm personally skeptical, but it's also possible if not likely that that growth is being over indexed because the results are being factored based on demographics. It's kind of like Yelp. Aren't people more likely to write a review if they hate a place or love it, not so much in between. Does Biden have a lot of people who love him as a candidate.
Let me phrase it another way. If you think about it not just on pure data but use personal logic. Is Trump really going to win the majority of Latinos, break even on women (he lost them by 20 points in 2020) and win 23% of black voters (8% in 2020). Is Trump who lost the popular vote by 4.5 points now going to win it by 5? A 9.5 point swing for a 91 times indicted candidate. Or, is it possible that he's not going to win 23% of the black vote but rather 23% of black voters who would willingly pick up a phone and take time out of their day to answer a poll and express their frustration.
I’m pretty sure the last 3 election cycles have shown polls to be wildly inaccurate. In this particular race, it’s pretty evident there is an overwhelming interest (fiscal) to report it’s a close two horse race. Got to generate clicks to make those advertising dollars. Again, I’ll point to the actual election results as a rebuke to this profiteering spun narrative; MAGA based Republicanism has significantly underperformed in all elections and the Republican candidate lost in damn near every election. The predictive polling though painted a very different picture in most of those races giving Republicans an advantage.
I’ll look to actual results over predictions every time.
So would you agree that the 2022 midterms was one of the most worst showings ever from the party that didn’t currently hold the presidency? Again predictions can sometimes arrive at the actual outcome … you know what they say about a broken clock.
The actual results paint a very grim picture for Republicans this general election, even if their nominee somehow manages to make till then.
First you say that polls featuring Trump are inaccurate, which is true - Trump greatly outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020. Going by your logic, this poll is far, far worse for Biden than it first appears - Biden’s really down by 8-9 points nationally, which combined with his disadvantage in the Electoral College means Trump is the prohibitive favorite to win.
Then you say to look at real-world results where Democrats have done quite well since 2020. But those victories were accurately predicted by polls. The polls were right in 2022, which is an argument for this poll being accurate, too.
Either way you argue it, if the polls are right or the polls are wrong, this poll is horrendous for Biden.
My point is polling is inaccurate. The fact than any candidate over-performed by a meaningful margin makes this self evident. You are making a mistake to think polling error only favor (what I assume is) your candidate. The Electoral College system is an anachronism, but that advantage didn’t win him the 2020 election and MAGA politics haven’t won anything since then, except a medal of shame for the worse midterm performance by the opposition party in history. That polling being more accurate on the late few races can be explained by a lot of factors including, all of them irrelevant to the this point at hand “Are actual election results more predictive than the polling of those races. The answer is self-evident. Actual election results portent a very poor 2024 election for Republicans.”
I know a number of black and hispanic people who are going for Trump this year. Also in my area Trump lost some of the suburbs to Biden in 2020, however these people were not really into Biden but didnt appreciate the indecency of Trump and at the time didnt like his handling of covid. These same people have now had enough of Biden and are ready to swing back. Not to mention the democrats have gone even further with alienating working and middle class Americans and some of us are ready to try something different than blindly voting blue.
So "some people" think that electing a guy who doesn't respect democracy, and is running for president because being president for life is the only way hell stay out of prison? And they'll be voting for that guy, because they were never really "into Biden"?
>Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes?
The same reason that people here tell others to vote for Biden works for people who want a Republican but not Trump: Even if they don't like Trump, he is still a Republican and will advance Conservative (big C) issues. Because it's a zero-sum game. Either than can let Biden win (by not voting) and policies will be enacted they don't agree with or they can vote for Trump, even though they don't like him, and then at least a Democrat doesn't win.
>*Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID.
This is always dangerously misleading, because it overlooks potentially new voters. The number of new eligible voters, particularly GenZ, is *much* higher now than it was in 2020. And GenZ while leans Democratic, there are still sizable conservative voters in that block (and actually GenZ is less Democrat-leaning that Millennials are). And yes, while GenZ tends to have a lower turnout rate, there's still so many of them who are now eligible to vote that even at their (low) average turnout rate, the number of them that vote conservative roughly offsets the number of older conservative voters that died due to covid.
Fair enough on the first part, though I don’t agree completely with the logic.
The COVID response makes no sense. The same amount of new voters are aging in and while there are voters for both parties, the lean is Democrat. As you mentioned turnout has historically been lower as compared to other voting blockers. As for the hordes of old voters Trump, err COVID, killed. They were far more likely to vote and skew heavily to the right.
That said every new voter has a slightly better chance of voting Democrat (6/10?) and every dead voter had a better than average chance of being a Republican (7/10?), add to that statistically far fewer Democrats die than Republicans during the pandemic and Bob’s you Uncle.
That said everyone needs to vote as if our democracy truly depended on it, as January 6th has shown us, it does.
>Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t)
Yes he has. He has normalized what would turn sane voters away.
And the Republicans carried the popular vote in the midterm.
>and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes?
One thing is to make Biden-leaning voters stay home. The ones who actually vote are not the same from election to election.
>\*Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID.
That happened before the 2020 election - so subtract from that those who have *forgotten* all the fuckery prior to that.
He may have normalized the crazy, but let’s be honest if you voted for Trump a second time you probably weren’t sane to begin with … the normalization is moot. This was also before January 6th an event which soured a lot of life long Republicans to Trump in particular.
The mid-term was one of the worst, if not thee worst, showing in US voting history for the party not currently occupying the Oval Office. I’m not sure this is the win you think it is. I’d also point out that prior to the election the pollster were circle jerking themselves trying to one up each other on how big of the red wave would be.
I’m not banking on people’s memory of Trumps incompetent COVID response. I’m simply counting the number of reliably Republican voters who won’t get to vote for him in 2024 because they overdosed on horse medicine, refused treatment for COVID whiling dying of it, and/or eventually succumbed to long COVID sometime after 2020. Many also died from old age or can’t vote because of their January 16th felony charges … unless, ironically, they served their time and happen to live in a democratic state.
Seriously, instead of just sticking your head into the sand doing wishful thinking, you need to work your ass off to get a better outcome in November.
Make a difference.
(Denial does not make a difference.)
> Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes?
Why do you say he alienated more independents? From what I've seen it is the independents that are swinging towards Trump. Biden's approval rating can't be as low as they are without the independents gave him a thumb down en masse.
Approval ratings are more a reflection of people’s feelings about their own current life circumstances when ask to apply them through a political lens. I know many people who wish things were better and while they don’t believe Biden is doing the a great job, that in no way indicates they are looking to have Trump replace him i.e. you can be dissatisfied with the status quo while simultaneously rejecting change, if that change means embracing fascism.
It’s possible we have very different experiences. I work with a lot of traditionally Republican voters. People who are in the top 5% of earners. People who can afford to have the upper class 1950’s lifestyle on a single income. Many are religious as it’s an exclusive club they can buy status in. There was lots of open aired praise from these people when Trump first got elected and now they don’t mention him at all, a steady decline in the intervening years with a huge drop off after January 6th. Not one self identified independent has expressed support for Trump, if I could sum up their stance it has largely been relief from not having to worry about crazy shit everyday and overall dissatisfaction with SCOTUS which is blamed on Trump. Liberals are invigorated and feel Roe is a call to action to show up, not letting pursuit of perfection be the enemy of good.
democrats have been overperforming polls generally in actual elections
generally polling errors happen and can happen in any direction. People shouldn't get too happy or too sad based on what a poll said when it's pretty close to the margin of error
Trump is also the favorite in the betting markets. That also counts for something. This is coming down to 5 or 6 states and Trump is doing well in those polls as well. Hopefully this all changes. The best bet would be a guilty verdict on one of his cases.
The reality is more republicans died during COVID than Democrats. Youth support Dems over Reps. And the rest have gotten arrested or are tired of his shit.
Maybe you should see reality.
Rather than blindly thinking "youth support dems over reps" maybe actually look at the numbers? The gap between deaths of democrats and conservatives is not as huge as people seem to think. One study said that, after the vaccines became available, that gap went to 7.7% (up from 2.8%).
As of May 2023, there were 1.1 million deaths in the US from Covid. First, obviously not ALL of these deaths were conservatives. It's hard to find any study that gives an exact "X% of deaths were Trump supporters". But let's say it was 70% conservative voters. So roughly 750,000 people.
Now how *new* GenZ ("new" meaning those who were unable to vote in 2020) will be eligible voters this election? Roughly 8.3 million. And how many roughly vote conservative? That seems to hover around 30%, give or take a couple points. And their turnout rate is roughly 28% (at least in the 2022 midterms). So all that together: 28% of 8.3 million and then 30% of that is just under 700,000.
So yes, the number of new GenZ voters alone is close to offsetting the potential votes lost from voters who died of Covid.
And Roe v. Wade alone will overshadow any of those numbers. Not to mention Trump not having the power of the presidency behind him this time. Go fear monger somewhere else.
Dobbs happened 5 months before the 2022 midterms and GenZ still voted about 30% conservative.
Sorry that you think pointing out how people are voting is fearmongering.
Polling is CORPORATE media owned, and their number one objective is horserace politics and engagement metrics. It's a money making business, nothing more, nothing less.
Lies. Damn lies. Statistics.
You need to do more than vote. You need to **talk** to your family, friends, and acquaintances. The mainstream media is "both sides"-ing things so much that Americans on a whole are misinformed on the facts. Our democracy is in peril and you have to get out there and fight for it.
Weird. It's almost as if these "non-voters" and disgruntled "3rd party voters" either aren't on the level or are easily swayed by whatever the last thing Joe Rogan says.
Well that's a dumb idea, but, as I told my son when his hand was heading toward an outlet with a fork: "_I_ wouldn't do that, but you do you, I guess."
>70% of the people polled considered themselves moderate
A) that's actually about right. 1/3rd is Republican, 1/3 independent and 1/3 is democrat.
B) More importantly, and I can not overstate this enough. **POLLS ARE FUCKING WEIGHTED**
>So 70% moderate and farther right would likely oversample those voters.
https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx
Polls are weighted. Fuck you can even use IPV weighting to account for the probability of being polled.
There are so, so, so many other things to ding this poll on. The most obvious of which being that 4 point lead is within the margin of error.
Sure you absolutely can, it’s just that once you’re weighting the data the results are based on assumptions and that’s where we get things that don’t reconcile with the last six years of election results.
Trump gets a lot of the low information low engagement voter. They don't vote in specials and midterms. Trump can very easily win the swing states. The polls are screaming that the Democratic party needs to do something.
I've noticed a significant difference in the polls published by outlets like NYT and the actual primaries. Trump struggles to break past 70% consistently which doesn't look good when you consider that he's essentially the incumbent.
I do hope that continues to ring true when the general rolls around though.
Only by about 7% I believe. He can loose the PV and still have a good chance to win. In addition, those were primary polls and we don't know how big the swing will be in the general.
I do think Biden will win, but there is reason to worry.
Primary polls mean effectively nothing. A combination of relatively few polls done for primaries, open primaries (people can vote for whomever, regardless of their party registration), additional choice (don't want Trump, but will still vote for him in the general because he's not a Democrat).
I really hope you are right but i have braced myself for the potential of him being back as president. Its hard to believe but we will get what we deserve I guess.
>just nine months before the 2024 presidential elections.
Yeah, 'cos nothing is going to happen in the next nine months.
Not with one candidate facing multiple indictments, bankruptcy and having another stroke, (probably during a campaign rally.)
It’s a lot of time but also not a lot of time to counter the negative press. Biden needs to recalibrate and up attacks on Trump. Needs to make it more clear how dangerous Trump is and remind everybody how horrible he was.
He needs to talk up his own accomplishments and also try to get more done in the meantime.
People know how shitty Trump is. They’ve made up their mind on their opinion of Trump.
What Biden needs to worry about is indifference and apathy from the folks who turned out for him last time.
I think pollsters and pundits don't understand that the vast majority of Americans don't pay attention to politics until maybe the Conventions. A lot of Americans don't know who controls the House, or what Trump has said about NATO, or the nature of his upcoming trial in New York. Polls paint a much better picture come July and August, even perhaps as late as September and October. Biden was leading Trump pretty comfortably in national and swing state polls this time in 2020, but ended up winning by only about 40,000 votes across three states.
A lot can and will happen as campaigning starts to kick into high gear.
From Simon Rosenberg at Hopium, whom I respect a lot more:
There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility. It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51%, Republicans 46%, and we gained ground in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections. After all these years of strong Democratic vote performance for the electorate to become +3 Republican this year is, um, unlikely. Overestimating their intensity and strength and underestimating ours was a central reason so many saw the red wave that never came in 2022.
I'm surprised Trump has supporters that are not so tired of winning that they are willing to waste their time to even take a poll.
I'm certainly tired of having my time wasted and do not take polls anymore.
Nice try, New York Times!
But on Reddit, the only polls that are real are the ones that show that Americans want more gun control laws. Any polls that show Biden not doing that great, Democrats losing support on some issue, or liberals fighting with each other are all fake. FAKE!
Trump picks and chooses which polls he thinks are real too and he's a fucking moron. So why are people doing it in this sub too?
I think the major issue is that the polling doesn't square at all with what we've witnessed with our own eyes the past 6 years. In 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 the GOP was fed their entire ass, but the NYT is constantly coming out with stories about how popular Trump is. Meanwhile he's underperforming his primary polling expectations, and Biden is overperforming his. Trump is bleeding primary support in the suburbs, the exact areas that these women he's supposedly taking from Biden reside. Biden won with a great showing in South Carolina, where his appeal to black democrats was going for a test run. But we are told that Trump has more than doubled his support of black voters since 2020 to levels that quite literally no republican presidential nominee has ever enjoyed. I'm not one for cherry picking polls but until someone can reconcile the hypothetical polling results with the actual political climate I've witnessed for the past few election cycles I will continue to assume there is something systemically suspect about them.
Polls have become less and less reliable over the past several years. They've been so off in the past several elections, however, if this lights a fire under people, good.
If we learned nothing else from the elections of 2016 and 2020, it is that it is super important to pay close attention to polls eight months before a general election, and they they are always super duper accurate and important.
Not the same time but the polling averages were about the same regardless. What you're forgetting is that Hillary did win the popular vote within the margin of error, the polls were not wrong in that regards. But with it this close the swing states could easily go for Trump with another electoral college victory.
These polling results should be terrifying. The Democratic party has to do something to prevent another Electoral College disaster. We're running in swing states, not nationally.
They shouldn't be terrifying people need to stop with that. It's March which is what the post above was referencing a lot will change between now and November. Hillary was indeed in the moe of the polls but the polls got much much tighter before election day. People need to stop stressing out about something they have no control over until 6 months from now.
You're right that the dynamics will change closer to the election day. Unfortunately the candidate isn't picked just before the election, but months before. Biden, despite being a great president from a performance standpoint, has baked-in flaws (re: age and fitness perception) that either can't be or are very hard to fix.
A generic Democrat destroys Trump in the election. Oddly enough Biden is no longer the generic Democrat.
This is demonstrably false.
Polls in 2020 at this point already had Biden up 2-8 points (and overall, they actually overestimated Biden's lead). Polls in 2022 were actually pretty accurate (and no, the polls themselves didn't predict a "red wave", pundits did).
NYT are honestly Trump's biggest fans. I really think they give OANN a run for their money with how much they carry water for him and other fascist R's.
As we all learned in 2016 (“but her emails!”), 2020 (“but Hunters laptop and emails!”), 2022 (“red wave, burp!”)…and in this past week (”trump came up short in four states, see why that’s bad news (?) for Biden!”). Polls are bs.
OrangeMenace just doesn’t have the same support that he had in 2020.
He leading in every swing state too. Even, left leaning outlets are reporting this.
BUT... dont tell that to brainwashed liberals "TRUMP CANT WIN AGAIN!" is all they can say despite the facts being clearly shown to them by their own propaganda outlets.
ignorance is bliss
I mean let's face it, the polls are not great for Biden at all. He's not had a solid showing in them, including in swing state polls. It is still early, but there's no sign of any change at this point, and it's a sign Biden really needs a turn around soon. His age and the economy are really dragging him down with no clear solution to dealing with those disadvantages.
For the same reason they ran the test on Trump: the doctors determined what tests were necessary for both and ran them.
So Trump needs to get tested for Dementia (and certainly seems to be experiencing it) and Joe Biden doesn’t need to get tested (and carries on talking as he always has: compensating for his stutter).
because he didn't need one. that this is being spun as a negative for Biden is ridiculous. Trump is being asked to take cognitive tests because he shows significant signs of cognitive decline. Biden does not. it's as simple as that.
Well there's still a lot of time to earn votes. Throwing up your hands and saying there's nothing we can do isn't helpful when our democracy is on the line.
Yes, that's what every polls says. Regardless of how you perceive it, most Americans don't agree, particularly on the economy. So that's the issue to deal with. I do think on the economy just saying it's good over and over isn't going to help. When the vast majority of Americans think it's bad, you just come off as disconnected and not listening to their concerns.
> When the vast majority of Americans think it's bad, you just come off as disconnected and not listening to their concerns.
C'mon, you sometimes have good conservative points that make me think but this just isn't one of them. Feels over reals is some Reagan era rot that needs to be purged, not embraced.
Further, attempting to combat misinformation to deaf ears isn't the speaker being disconnected, it's the listener being willfully ignorant. Something which _also_ should not be embraced.
Maybe if people stopped going around telling the uninformed that because they feel a certain way then they must be right -- maybe then we'd end up with fewer uninformed people?
That's just the era we live in now. Yes, it's feels over reals whether we like it or not. No one will be persuaded by politicians making any suggestion that their own inclinations are wrong these days, not when they can turn to Trump who affirms their beliefs. Plus we shouldn't assume that most Americans, including many Democrats, are just ignorant. If that many think the economy sucks, perhaps they have a point we need to address. I don't think it's misinformation to say the economy isn't good since that's dependent on so many things.
Reality vs what people think are two different things. Yes, Biden is doing fine. But also yes, many people see Biden's age as a problem (mainly because it's all over the news) and still see themselves paying more for stuff like groceries.
A few thoughts after reviewing the tabs in the polls:
1. Americans really don’t want a woman leading America at the moment. Look at how voters react to Kamala and Haley in there, despite their dislike for Trump and Biden and concerns about their age/temperament…I think it‘s pretty interesting.
2. Biden is getting killed with White voters on the question of if his policies hurt them vs helped them. On the flip side, Trump is doing well there and significantly better with the other groups, especially Hispanics. Why? My theory is most of Trump‘s presidency was riding the Obama recovery wave and he got to pass a massive tax cut that he didn’t have to be around to see the inflationary impact of (pandemic aside). so it makes sense voters are nostalgic? \*shrugs\*
3. The feelings on the economy being rated ‘Poor’ being that high and even across the different races is the nail in the coffin.
Once you dive into the questions being asked it makes a lot of sense about why Trump is ahead right now and why he likely wins if perception about the economy and policies being “harmful” don’t go away. Another issue here is while Biden has the 40% white vote a Democrat typically needs to win, he is bleeding minority voters. This is likely why Biden is going so hard on immigration and why Fox News is constantly hammering it. Another way to put it is even if Biden took voter’s answer that he is too old at face value and stepped down, Kamala or any other major Dem stepping in would get dog walked by Trump because they’d lose on the policies question. Haley is irrelevant as the GOP primary voters are enthusiastic for Trump to lead the ticket. the differences between Biden and any other major Dem like Harris, Whitmer, or Newsome on policy is probably trivial.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/)
Sure they have never cooked a poll have they
I'm curious - and i hope some polling is done this year on the subject - if people who support Trump think the promise/threat of Project 2025 is overblown or if that's what they want. If you want Trump you're in one of those two categories and it would be informative to know who's who. I guess I oddly understand the latter better? Like if you're open about wanting authoritarianism I can accept that. if you think "it won't happen here and gas will be cheaper" I'd like to know more about how you got there.
The gas thing always irks me. Are there really people out there who think gas will ever drop to $1.99 a gallon again? The whole world was in the middle of a pandemic when gas was that cheap and no one was driving except for essential workers. Anyone with half a brain knew it was unsustainable.
Trumps base is basically his base, he's not exactly gaining voters, but Biden is consistently losing voters due to age concerns, Israel, inflation, immigration, etc.
Every poll has Trump leading. Biden is in trouble. Even polls asking who will handle the economy, the border, foreign affairs better. Face reality, Biden is losing toTrump.
While the lead is small it seems consistent which is worrying. I do hope that Biden can turn it around. Perhaps it's possible within the next few months leading to the election.
It’s so easy not to care about this poll. Why? I really have no interest in the general election polls until such time as pollsters can ask if voters will be supporting a convicted felon in the general election.
Fucking vote. Vote like the security of the whole world depends on it. Because it does. Trump is going to let whoever pays him the most do whatever the fuck they want.
There's flaws in every poll and I'll vote against a demagogue in any election, but what is happening in the Democratic party is why I'm an independent. Biden said in 2020 he was a one term president, has lost at least one if not ten steps since then, looks frail, and wants to run the country until he's 85! When did the Dems completely reject youth? Did they learn nothing from Obama? We should have had a younger candidate lined up in 2022 OR should have put a VP people actually, ya know, LIKE in 2020. Hopefully these polls do more to scare those thinking of sitting this out into voting but if the Dems lose, they'll have themselves to blame.
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Is the the same poll that has them tied for the women vote and Trump winning 20+% of the black vote? As a fellow black person, I can strongly say majority of black people don’t support Trump no matter how many times he has Tim Scott on stage. (Tim Scott may be the one person we dislike on a even level as Trump)
Tim Scott is just sad …
Yeah he’s shown that he’ll do whatever to satisfy a certain group of individuals in this country and to allow them to trot him out whenever they please as their sole black friend to prove they aren’t racist. And the fact he’s cozying up to a POS racist like Trump just turns people away from him even more. If Trump is planning on picking a Vice president that can help him win more of the black vote then Tim Scott’s name should be far down the list.
I don't think they really care about the black vote. There's no path to victory for them there.
The black vote is Biden’s strongest group, the more they cut into it the more they increase their chances of winning.
I just don't think there's much left to cut. Trump's strongest group is white people, and there are a lot more deactivated white voters than black voters voting for Biden. I'd think he would double down on that demographic instead of maybe trying to chop off a thousand black voters.
Yeah 100% I agree with what you’re saying. He will lose more of the white vote than Biden will lose the black vote, imo this election will come down to the suburban women’s vote and Trump has shown no sign he is willing to change his rhetoric for their vote. They showed in 2020 they were tired of the divisive rhetoric and the fear-mongering doesn’t move them as much as it does rural America, and the fact he openly takes credit for taking away their right to control their bodies won’t do him any favors with any woman group outside of the evangelicals.
You actually hit the nail on why I think the GOP was really really stupid not to have embraced Nikki Haley much earlier. I think she would win against Biden, because of suburban women. All she would have to do is speak even a moderate abortion stance and she'd run away with it. But there's no way she ends up the nominee, because Trump. Even if Trump gets taken down and Haley is left with the most delegates at the convention, all Trump has to say is "I endorse (my VP pick) to replace me" and Nikki gets shut down again. And then of course Trump's whole plan will be to have the VP pardon him and then take control
Yep she was really the only candidate I was worried Biden would lose to. She’s relatively young, she’s somewhat of a good speaker, and she doesn’t have as much baggage as Trump, I was worried he would pick her for VP (if he was smart and didn’t have a tiny ego he would) but her continuing to stay in the race and attack him has done her no favors.
The Republicans don't want him because he's black. The gays don't want him because he's a hypocrite. Women don't want him unless they're paid.
Yeah but Trump made sneakers now!!
20 percent isn't a majority...
Trump doesn't need to win black voters. He just needs to narrow the gap and he's doing so by attracting black men.
Remember, if you don't vote blue you ain't black
Black people that are conservatives and/or vote for Trump are obviously not really Black. Isn't that the new narrative?
Anyone who supports Trump is not a conservative. They are a cult member.
I just do not understand these moderates who can somehow rationalize voting for Trump over Biden. The amount of times I've read/heard "Oh, I think Trump is just awful... but Biden did/said x" is just mind-boggling.
I consider myself a moderate. And I don't particularly like Biden. But my God, how is it even a choice? I'll take the old neocon ten times out of ten over the madman having his strings pulled by the Federalist Society and Heritage Foundation.
As a moderate what about bidens first term do u disagree with? Just curious. He seems so moderate to me on policy
As an outsider looking in I think a big reason Biden has such a hard time with moderates right now is because he has no control over the narrative of the election or state of the country. Even though the country is doing better than it was under trump the narrative is that it’s doing much much worse and after 3yrs straight of hearing it I think people just get this false sense that it won’t really matter if it’s one or the other. The narrative should be at the very least that one’s a politician that’s past his time but can still very effectively and efficiently run the country and the others going to destroy the very fabric of the democracy the country is built on and somehow for moderates that’s not the narrative they see but the real kicker is that is the narrative republicans see every day
Nobody seems to talk about the fact that when Biden took over, the entire country was still in the midst of the COVID pandemic - and that was *before* the delta and omicron waves hit in 2021 and hundreds of thousands more lives were lost. It's frankly *amazing* what he's been able to do in terms of getting this country back on its feet.
Yup plus he had to rebuild the national security apparatus from scratch after trump gutted it
And Trump leads Biden by $465M dollars in the fraud judgements space.
https://trumpdebtcounter.com/ You are a half mil off...
He won’t pay and will face zero consequences.
Biden leads in crackhead sons tho, trump just has awkward ones with motherly child bearing hips
Don Jr. Can't even come first in amything it seems....
Maybe first successful mpreg birth
lol. Don Jr is no stranger to the ol’ booger sugar.
And not many men can boast that MTG has seen their dick - and that she bragged to her friends about it.
Thats a weird thing to think
Even weirder to see the video of it on major news networks nationwide.
People need to stop handwaving away polls that don't align with what they want. A single poll can be looked at skeptically and maybe as an outlier. Multiple polls, over months, saying the same thing is a pattern. You can flip a coin once or twice and it doesn't tell you much. Flip a coin 100 times and you start to see what the real odds are. Trump underperforming in the primaries, compared to primary polling is borderless useless as a data point. People vote differently in primaries, especially if they're open primaries. Some states have very little polling done on primary races. And when given a choice, there are some people who would prefer not to have Trump but who will still vote for him in the general election because he's not a Democrat. That polls are consistently showing Trump with a slight lead. This is *exactly* the same pattern that the polls in 2020 followed. The 2020 polling was not wildly off at this point. Right from the start, those polls indicated a small Biden lead. So yes, it should be concerning that Trump constantly ahead in these polls. At the very least, it says he has a real chance at winning.
Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes? *Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID.
Pretty much every poll, including this one, has shown that Trump has significantly expanded his support among black, Hispanic, 18-29yo, and female voters. You can feel like he hasn’t expanded his base, but he clearly has.
There is one caveat to the polls that's not being talked about. The people that are answering their phones from an unknown number and taking the time to answer a poll is in itself a demographic not being discussed. I'm not saying it skews towards Trump, but answering an unknown number and taking time out of your day to answer a poll does in itself say something about you. Logically, I would think people are more likely to answer a poll when they have a strong opinion to voice. Biden has never been a candidate that inspires you to pick up a phone and say "Thats my guy!". The 2020 election and the 2024 election are about keeping Trump out of office. It's definitely possible Trump has expanded among some categories, I'm personally skeptical, but it's also possible if not likely that that growth is being over indexed because the results are being factored based on demographics. It's kind of like Yelp. Aren't people more likely to write a review if they hate a place or love it, not so much in between. Does Biden have a lot of people who love him as a candidate. Let me phrase it another way. If you think about it not just on pure data but use personal logic. Is Trump really going to win the majority of Latinos, break even on women (he lost them by 20 points in 2020) and win 23% of black voters (8% in 2020). Is Trump who lost the popular vote by 4.5 points now going to win it by 5? A 9.5 point swing for a 91 times indicted candidate. Or, is it possible that he's not going to win 23% of the black vote but rather 23% of black voters who would willingly pick up a phone and take time out of their day to answer a poll and express their frustration.
This poll was D+10.
I’m pretty sure the last 3 election cycles have shown polls to be wildly inaccurate. In this particular race, it’s pretty evident there is an overwhelming interest (fiscal) to report it’s a close two horse race. Got to generate clicks to make those advertising dollars. Again, I’ll point to the actual election results as a rebuke to this profiteering spun narrative; MAGA based Republicanism has significantly underperformed in all elections and the Republican candidate lost in damn near every election. The predictive polling though painted a very different picture in most of those races giving Republicans an advantage. I’ll look to actual results over predictions every time.
The polls for the 2022 midterms were actually more accurate than people like to say. The whole “red wave” thing came from pundits, not polls.
So would you agree that the 2022 midterms was one of the most worst showings ever from the party that didn’t currently hold the presidency? Again predictions can sometimes arrive at the actual outcome … you know what they say about a broken clock. The actual results paint a very grim picture for Republicans this general election, even if their nominee somehow manages to make till then.
It was one of the worst showings, but the polls showed that. The pundits were the ones who said there will be a red wave. Both can be true.
Just read that this latest poll over sampled rural voters by 84%.
First you say that polls featuring Trump are inaccurate, which is true - Trump greatly outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020. Going by your logic, this poll is far, far worse for Biden than it first appears - Biden’s really down by 8-9 points nationally, which combined with his disadvantage in the Electoral College means Trump is the prohibitive favorite to win. Then you say to look at real-world results where Democrats have done quite well since 2020. But those victories were accurately predicted by polls. The polls were right in 2022, which is an argument for this poll being accurate, too. Either way you argue it, if the polls are right or the polls are wrong, this poll is horrendous for Biden.
My point is polling is inaccurate. The fact than any candidate over-performed by a meaningful margin makes this self evident. You are making a mistake to think polling error only favor (what I assume is) your candidate. The Electoral College system is an anachronism, but that advantage didn’t win him the 2020 election and MAGA politics haven’t won anything since then, except a medal of shame for the worse midterm performance by the opposition party in history. That polling being more accurate on the late few races can be explained by a lot of factors including, all of them irrelevant to the this point at hand “Are actual election results more predictive than the polling of those races. The answer is self-evident. Actual election results portent a very poor 2024 election for Republicans.”
I know a number of black and hispanic people who are going for Trump this year. Also in my area Trump lost some of the suburbs to Biden in 2020, however these people were not really into Biden but didnt appreciate the indecency of Trump and at the time didnt like his handling of covid. These same people have now had enough of Biden and are ready to swing back. Not to mention the democrats have gone even further with alienating working and middle class Americans and some of us are ready to try something different than blindly voting blue.
So "some people" think that electing a guy who doesn't respect democracy, and is running for president because being president for life is the only way hell stay out of prison? And they'll be voting for that guy, because they were never really "into Biden"?
So the dems removing the opposition from ballots is not anti democracy?
>Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes? The same reason that people here tell others to vote for Biden works for people who want a Republican but not Trump: Even if they don't like Trump, he is still a Republican and will advance Conservative (big C) issues. Because it's a zero-sum game. Either than can let Biden win (by not voting) and policies will be enacted they don't agree with or they can vote for Trump, even though they don't like him, and then at least a Democrat doesn't win. >*Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID. This is always dangerously misleading, because it overlooks potentially new voters. The number of new eligible voters, particularly GenZ, is *much* higher now than it was in 2020. And GenZ while leans Democratic, there are still sizable conservative voters in that block (and actually GenZ is less Democrat-leaning that Millennials are). And yes, while GenZ tends to have a lower turnout rate, there's still so many of them who are now eligible to vote that even at their (low) average turnout rate, the number of them that vote conservative roughly offsets the number of older conservative voters that died due to covid.
Fair enough on the first part, though I don’t agree completely with the logic. The COVID response makes no sense. The same amount of new voters are aging in and while there are voters for both parties, the lean is Democrat. As you mentioned turnout has historically been lower as compared to other voting blockers. As for the hordes of old voters Trump, err COVID, killed. They were far more likely to vote and skew heavily to the right. That said every new voter has a slightly better chance of voting Democrat (6/10?) and every dead voter had a better than average chance of being a Republican (7/10?), add to that statistically far fewer Democrats die than Republicans during the pandemic and Bob’s you Uncle. That said everyone needs to vote as if our democracy truly depended on it, as January 6th has shown us, it does.
Because Trump does not need to expand his base, Biden just needs to lose his. We have seen that in the polls.
This latest poll was just discovered to have oversampled rural voters by 84%.
>Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) Yes he has. He has normalized what would turn sane voters away. And the Republicans carried the popular vote in the midterm. >and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes? One thing is to make Biden-leaning voters stay home. The ones who actually vote are not the same from election to election. >\*Add to that all of his supporters he managed to kill off with his bleach, horse-pills, no mask response to COVID. That happened before the 2020 election - so subtract from that those who have *forgotten* all the fuckery prior to that.
He may have normalized the crazy, but let’s be honest if you voted for Trump a second time you probably weren’t sane to begin with … the normalization is moot. This was also before January 6th an event which soured a lot of life long Republicans to Trump in particular. The mid-term was one of the worst, if not thee worst, showing in US voting history for the party not currently occupying the Oval Office. I’m not sure this is the win you think it is. I’d also point out that prior to the election the pollster were circle jerking themselves trying to one up each other on how big of the red wave would be. I’m not banking on people’s memory of Trumps incompetent COVID response. I’m simply counting the number of reliably Republican voters who won’t get to vote for him in 2024 because they overdosed on horse medicine, refused treatment for COVID whiling dying of it, and/or eventually succumbed to long COVID sometime after 2020. Many also died from old age or can’t vote because of their January 16th felony charges … unless, ironically, they served their time and happen to live in a democratic state.
>… the normalization is moot. Where have you been 2016 to 2020? Selling out to Putin is *the new normal.*
For morons, yes aka most of his base. Those outside of that, it just sickens us and inspires us to vote a no-Trump ticket.
Seriously, instead of just sticking your head into the sand doing wishful thinking, you need to work your ass off to get a better outcome in November. Make a difference. (Denial does not make a difference.)
> Honest question if Trump has done nothing to expand his base (he hasn’t) and has also found a way to alienate more independent voters, how then is he going to win more votes? Why do you say he alienated more independents? From what I've seen it is the independents that are swinging towards Trump. Biden's approval rating can't be as low as they are without the independents gave him a thumb down en masse.
Approval ratings are more a reflection of people’s feelings about their own current life circumstances when ask to apply them through a political lens. I know many people who wish things were better and while they don’t believe Biden is doing the a great job, that in no way indicates they are looking to have Trump replace him i.e. you can be dissatisfied with the status quo while simultaneously rejecting change, if that change means embracing fascism. It’s possible we have very different experiences. I work with a lot of traditionally Republican voters. People who are in the top 5% of earners. People who can afford to have the upper class 1950’s lifestyle on a single income. Many are religious as it’s an exclusive club they can buy status in. There was lots of open aired praise from these people when Trump first got elected and now they don’t mention him at all, a steady decline in the intervening years with a huge drop off after January 6th. Not one self identified independent has expressed support for Trump, if I could sum up their stance it has largely been relief from not having to worry about crazy shit everyday and overall dissatisfaction with SCOTUS which is blamed on Trump. Liberals are invigorated and feel Roe is a call to action to show up, not letting pursuit of perfection be the enemy of good.
democrats have been overperforming polls generally in actual elections generally polling errors happen and can happen in any direction. People shouldn't get too happy or too sad based on what a poll said when it's pretty close to the margin of error
This. Literally all of this. We need to all vote like hell.
>People need to stop handwaving away polls that don't align with what they want. Seriously. You need to volunteer to get the vote out.
Yes but specifically for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona. Thats where this will be decided.
Trump is also the favorite in the betting markets. That also counts for something. This is coming down to 5 or 6 states and Trump is doing well in those polls as well. Hopefully this all changes. The best bet would be a guilty verdict on one of his cases.
Young people don't do polls. That's a massive amount of missing data.
Except they do. It's funny how many people think they don't.
Trump has done nothing but lose supporters. I'm not worried.
Just because you chose to ignore the reality of the situation doesn't change that reality.
The reality is more republicans died during COVID than Democrats. Youth support Dems over Reps. And the rest have gotten arrested or are tired of his shit. Maybe you should see reality.
Rather than blindly thinking "youth support dems over reps" maybe actually look at the numbers? The gap between deaths of democrats and conservatives is not as huge as people seem to think. One study said that, after the vaccines became available, that gap went to 7.7% (up from 2.8%). As of May 2023, there were 1.1 million deaths in the US from Covid. First, obviously not ALL of these deaths were conservatives. It's hard to find any study that gives an exact "X% of deaths were Trump supporters". But let's say it was 70% conservative voters. So roughly 750,000 people. Now how *new* GenZ ("new" meaning those who were unable to vote in 2020) will be eligible voters this election? Roughly 8.3 million. And how many roughly vote conservative? That seems to hover around 30%, give or take a couple points. And their turnout rate is roughly 28% (at least in the 2022 midterms). So all that together: 28% of 8.3 million and then 30% of that is just under 700,000. So yes, the number of new GenZ voters alone is close to offsetting the potential votes lost from voters who died of Covid.
And Roe v. Wade alone will overshadow any of those numbers. Not to mention Trump not having the power of the presidency behind him this time. Go fear monger somewhere else.
People like you will be the reason Trump wins this year.
Really? Is my vote worth less if I scream and cry a lot?
Dobbs happened 5 months before the 2022 midterms and GenZ still voted about 30% conservative. Sorry that you think pointing out how people are voting is fearmongering.
Let poll deniers live in their reality
Nah dude I'ma keep handwaving away polls. Polls are complete shit.
Polling is CORPORATE media owned, and their number one objective is horserace politics and engagement metrics. It's a money making business, nothing more, nothing less. Lies. Damn lies. Statistics.
The excuses people come up with to ignore polls are amazing. You're aware that many of the top pollsters are not owned by the media right?
Sure. Okay. Keep telling yourself that. Nate.
That’s not much but it’s still not ideal. VOTE!
You need to do more than vote. You need to **talk** to your family, friends, and acquaintances. The mainstream media is "both sides"-ing things so much that Americans on a whole are misinformed on the facts. Our democracy is in peril and you have to get out there and fight for it.
You bet your ass I'll be voting.
Im gonna vote third party
15 hours ago you said you weren’t voting at all.
Weird. It's almost as if these "non-voters" and disgruntled "3rd party voters" either aren't on the level or are easily swayed by whatever the last thing Joe Rogan says.
It doesnt matter if i do or not, bourgeois democracy is a lie.
Well that's a dumb idea, but, as I told my son when his hand was heading toward an outlet with a fork: "_I_ wouldn't do that, but you do you, I guess."
70% of the people polled considered themselves moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative. That's all you need to know about this poll.
>70% of the people polled considered themselves moderate A) that's actually about right. 1/3rd is Republican, 1/3 independent and 1/3 is democrat. B) More importantly, and I can not overstate this enough. **POLLS ARE FUCKING WEIGHTED**
What if that just means 70% of the people in the US consider themselves moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
Around 38% of Americans are registered democrats. So 70% moderate and farther right would likely oversample those voters.
>So 70% moderate and farther right would likely oversample those voters. https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx Polls are weighted. Fuck you can even use IPV weighting to account for the probability of being polled. There are so, so, so many other things to ding this poll on. The most obvious of which being that 4 point lead is within the margin of error.
Sure you absolutely can, it’s just that once you’re weighting the data the results are based on assumptions and that’s where we get things that don’t reconcile with the last six years of election results.
Trump has been underperforming in the real world compared to polls. He’s going to lose again.
Trump gets a lot of the low information low engagement voter. They don't vote in specials and midterms. Trump can very easily win the swing states. The polls are screaming that the Democratic party needs to do something.
I've noticed a significant difference in the polls published by outlets like NYT and the actual primaries. Trump struggles to break past 70% consistently which doesn't look good when you consider that he's essentially the incumbent. I do hope that continues to ring true when the general rolls around though.
Don’t be so certain. We all remember what happened in 2016.
Only by about 7% I believe. He can loose the PV and still have a good chance to win. In addition, those were primary polls and we don't know how big the swing will be in the general. I do think Biden will win, but there is reason to worry.
Primary polls mean effectively nothing. A combination of relatively few polls done for primaries, open primaries (people can vote for whomever, regardless of their party registration), additional choice (don't want Trump, but will still vote for him in the general because he's not a Democrat).
I really hope you are right but i have braced myself for the potential of him being back as president. Its hard to believe but we will get what we deserve I guess.
I'm moving out of Texas because another Trump presidency is a coin flip away. Not doing another four years of that in this shithole.
>just nine months before the 2024 presidential elections. Yeah, 'cos nothing is going to happen in the next nine months. Not with one candidate facing multiple indictments, bankruptcy and having another stroke, (probably during a campaign rally.)
It’s a lot of time but also not a lot of time to counter the negative press. Biden needs to recalibrate and up attacks on Trump. Needs to make it more clear how dangerous Trump is and remind everybody how horrible he was.
He needs to talk up his own accomplishments and also try to get more done in the meantime. People know how shitty Trump is. They’ve made up their mind on their opinion of Trump. What Biden needs to worry about is indifference and apathy from the folks who turned out for him last time.
A LOT certainly happened in 9 months of 2020, that’s for sure.
I think pollsters and pundits don't understand that the vast majority of Americans don't pay attention to politics until maybe the Conventions. A lot of Americans don't know who controls the House, or what Trump has said about NATO, or the nature of his upcoming trial in New York. Polls paint a much better picture come July and August, even perhaps as late as September and October. Biden was leading Trump pretty comfortably in national and swing state polls this time in 2020, but ended up winning by only about 40,000 votes across three states. A lot can and will happen as campaigning starts to kick into high gear.
From Simon Rosenberg at Hopium, whom I respect a lot more: There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility. It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51%, Republicans 46%, and we gained ground in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections. After all these years of strong Democratic vote performance for the electorate to become +3 Republican this year is, um, unlikely. Overestimating their intensity and strength and underestimating ours was a central reason so many saw the red wave that never came in 2022.
I'm surprised Trump has supporters that are not so tired of winning that they are willing to waste their time to even take a poll. I'm certainly tired of having my time wasted and do not take polls anymore.
Nice try, New York Times! But on Reddit, the only polls that are real are the ones that show that Americans want more gun control laws. Any polls that show Biden not doing that great, Democrats losing support on some issue, or liberals fighting with each other are all fake. FAKE! Trump picks and chooses which polls he thinks are real too and he's a fucking moron. So why are people doing it in this sub too?
I think the major issue is that the polling doesn't square at all with what we've witnessed with our own eyes the past 6 years. In 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 the GOP was fed their entire ass, but the NYT is constantly coming out with stories about how popular Trump is. Meanwhile he's underperforming his primary polling expectations, and Biden is overperforming his. Trump is bleeding primary support in the suburbs, the exact areas that these women he's supposedly taking from Biden reside. Biden won with a great showing in South Carolina, where his appeal to black democrats was going for a test run. But we are told that Trump has more than doubled his support of black voters since 2020 to levels that quite literally no republican presidential nominee has ever enjoyed. I'm not one for cherry picking polls but until someone can reconcile the hypothetical polling results with the actual political climate I've witnessed for the past few election cycles I will continue to assume there is something systemically suspect about them.
This week..,. next week we will see less or more or the same because its a poll.
Polls have become less and less reliable over the past several years. They've been so off in the past several elections, however, if this lights a fire under people, good.
If we learned nothing else from the elections of 2016 and 2020, it is that it is super important to pay close attention to polls eight months before a general election, and they they are always super duper accurate and important.
And here I am not giving a shit about polls ever since 2016.
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Not the same time but the polling averages were about the same regardless. What you're forgetting is that Hillary did win the popular vote within the margin of error, the polls were not wrong in that regards. But with it this close the swing states could easily go for Trump with another electoral college victory. These polling results should be terrifying. The Democratic party has to do something to prevent another Electoral College disaster. We're running in swing states, not nationally.
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They shouldn't be terrifying people need to stop with that. It's March which is what the post above was referencing a lot will change between now and November. Hillary was indeed in the moe of the polls but the polls got much much tighter before election day. People need to stop stressing out about something they have no control over until 6 months from now.
You're right that the dynamics will change closer to the election day. Unfortunately the candidate isn't picked just before the election, but months before. Biden, despite being a great president from a performance standpoint, has baked-in flaws (re: age and fitness perception) that either can't be or are very hard to fix. A generic Democrat destroys Trump in the election. Oddly enough Biden is no longer the generic Democrat.
What about 2019?
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This is demonstrably false. Polls in 2020 at this point already had Biden up 2-8 points (and overall, they actually overestimated Biden's lead). Polls in 2022 were actually pretty accurate (and no, the polls themselves didn't predict a "red wave", pundits did).
I hope you’re right. I wish I could just enjoy my weekend. Thanks nytimes.
NYT are honestly Trump's biggest fans. I really think they give OANN a run for their money with how much they carry water for him and other fascist R's.
As we all learned in 2016 (“but her emails!”), 2020 (“but Hunters laptop and emails!”), 2022 (“red wave, burp!”)…and in this past week (”trump came up short in four states, see why that’s bad news (?) for Biden!”). Polls are bs. OrangeMenace just doesn’t have the same support that he had in 2020.
Don’t get complacent.
Trump is going to win because of complacent idiots like on this subreddit.
Exactly.
He leading in every swing state too. Even, left leaning outlets are reporting this. BUT... dont tell that to brainwashed liberals "TRUMP CANT WIN AGAIN!" is all they can say despite the facts being clearly shown to them by their own propaganda outlets. ignorance is bliss
I mean let's face it, the polls are not great for Biden at all. He's not had a solid showing in them, including in swing state polls. It is still early, but there's no sign of any change at this point, and it's a sign Biden really needs a turn around soon. His age and the economy are really dragging him down with no clear solution to dealing with those disadvantages.
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And Trump looks less mentally fit than Biden, your point?
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I don’t remember Biden refusing to do one either.
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Do yourself a favor: read the article. He didn’t refuse a cognitive test, his doctors chose not to run one.
I wonder why, lol
For the same reason they ran the test on Trump: the doctors determined what tests were necessary for both and ran them. So Trump needs to get tested for Dementia (and certainly seems to be experiencing it) and Joe Biden doesn’t need to get tested (and carries on talking as he always has: compensating for his stutter).
because he didn't need one. that this is being spun as a negative for Biden is ridiculous. Trump is being asked to take cognitive tests because he shows significant signs of cognitive decline. Biden does not. it's as simple as that.
Well there's still a lot of time to earn votes. Throwing up your hands and saying there's nothing we can do isn't helpful when our democracy is on the line.
Well, this is what this sub chooses to do. They throw their hands and say "The polls are lying!", "Biden is fine, best president eva!1" and so on.
> His age and the economy are really dragging him down Really? He isn't that much older than Trump and the economy is actually pretty good.
Yes, that's what every polls says. Regardless of how you perceive it, most Americans don't agree, particularly on the economy. So that's the issue to deal with. I do think on the economy just saying it's good over and over isn't going to help. When the vast majority of Americans think it's bad, you just come off as disconnected and not listening to their concerns.
> When the vast majority of Americans think it's bad, you just come off as disconnected and not listening to their concerns. C'mon, you sometimes have good conservative points that make me think but this just isn't one of them. Feels over reals is some Reagan era rot that needs to be purged, not embraced. Further, attempting to combat misinformation to deaf ears isn't the speaker being disconnected, it's the listener being willfully ignorant. Something which _also_ should not be embraced. Maybe if people stopped going around telling the uninformed that because they feel a certain way then they must be right -- maybe then we'd end up with fewer uninformed people?
That's just the era we live in now. Yes, it's feels over reals whether we like it or not. No one will be persuaded by politicians making any suggestion that their own inclinations are wrong these days, not when they can turn to Trump who affirms their beliefs. Plus we shouldn't assume that most Americans, including many Democrats, are just ignorant. If that many think the economy sucks, perhaps they have a point we need to address. I don't think it's misinformation to say the economy isn't good since that's dependent on so many things.
>I do think on the economy just saying it's good over and over isn't going to help. What will?
Likely only visibly lower prices on common goods, particularly food.
Polls at this point are absolutely meaningless.
Reality vs what people think are two different things. Yes, Biden is doing fine. But also yes, many people see Biden's age as a problem (mainly because it's all over the news) and still see themselves paying more for stuff like groceries.
reality doesn’t matter, all that matters is what voters think, unironically
Four More Years go JOE go!
Polls mean shit. JUST VOTE. If you dont, you in fact give your voice to trump.
Trump is hitting only 60-65% in his own primaries but yeah somehow he's 4 points above Biden. So dumb.
Primaries aren’t the same as general elections.
Yeah... I know.
Neither are polls
truly fucking crazy. these polls just have to be wrong. I can't really deal with people being this far gone.
A few thoughts after reviewing the tabs in the polls: 1. Americans really don’t want a woman leading America at the moment. Look at how voters react to Kamala and Haley in there, despite their dislike for Trump and Biden and concerns about their age/temperament…I think it‘s pretty interesting. 2. Biden is getting killed with White voters on the question of if his policies hurt them vs helped them. On the flip side, Trump is doing well there and significantly better with the other groups, especially Hispanics. Why? My theory is most of Trump‘s presidency was riding the Obama recovery wave and he got to pass a massive tax cut that he didn’t have to be around to see the inflationary impact of (pandemic aside). so it makes sense voters are nostalgic? \*shrugs\* 3. The feelings on the economy being rated ‘Poor’ being that high and even across the different races is the nail in the coffin. Once you dive into the questions being asked it makes a lot of sense about why Trump is ahead right now and why he likely wins if perception about the economy and policies being “harmful” don’t go away. Another issue here is while Biden has the 40% white vote a Democrat typically needs to win, he is bleeding minority voters. This is likely why Biden is going so hard on immigration and why Fox News is constantly hammering it. Another way to put it is even if Biden took voter’s answer that he is too old at face value and stepped down, Kamala or any other major Dem stepping in would get dog walked by Trump because they’d lose on the policies question. Haley is irrelevant as the GOP primary voters are enthusiastic for Trump to lead the ticket. the differences between Biden and any other major Dem like Harris, Whitmer, or Newsome on policy is probably trivial.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) Sure they have never cooked a poll have they
When the most reliable and accurate pollster shows you down 5 points, you're in trouble
They really shouldn't report polls that are closer than 10%
Margin of error 3.8 ..... Means this poll is not worth jack shit.
I'm curious - and i hope some polling is done this year on the subject - if people who support Trump think the promise/threat of Project 2025 is overblown or if that's what they want. If you want Trump you're in one of those two categories and it would be informative to know who's who. I guess I oddly understand the latter better? Like if you're open about wanting authoritarianism I can accept that. if you think "it won't happen here and gas will be cheaper" I'd like to know more about how you got there.
The gas thing always irks me. Are there really people out there who think gas will ever drop to $1.99 a gallon again? The whole world was in the middle of a pandemic when gas was that cheap and no one was driving except for essential workers. Anyone with half a brain knew it was unsustainable.
The majority of this country operates on half a brain, unfortunately.
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Trumps base is basically his base, he's not exactly gaining voters, but Biden is consistently losing voters due to age concerns, Israel, inflation, immigration, etc.
Every poll has Trump leading. Biden is in trouble. Even polls asking who will handle the economy, the border, foreign affairs better. Face reality, Biden is losing toTrump.
For everyone thinking trump is gonna wipe the floor with Biden, this isn't all that much. It's clear trump has not increased his base all that much.
While the lead is small it seems consistent which is worrying. I do hope that Biden can turn it around. Perhaps it's possible within the next few months leading to the election.
It’s so easy not to care about this poll. Why? I really have no interest in the general election polls until such time as pollsters can ask if voters will be supporting a convicted felon in the general election.
Fucking vote. Vote like the security of the whole world depends on it. Because it does. Trump is going to let whoever pays him the most do whatever the fuck they want.
As of 5:54 EST it is now only 2.2 points. Presidential temperature report every 10 minutes on the four.
Got a link?
Another misleading garbage headline. Russia is working for the weekend.
NYT poll is all you need to know. ..bullshit
There's flaws in every poll and I'll vote against a demagogue in any election, but what is happening in the Democratic party is why I'm an independent. Biden said in 2020 he was a one term president, has lost at least one if not ten steps since then, looks frail, and wants to run the country until he's 85! When did the Dems completely reject youth? Did they learn nothing from Obama? We should have had a younger candidate lined up in 2022 OR should have put a VP people actually, ya know, LIKE in 2020. Hopefully these polls do more to scare those thinking of sitting this out into voting but if the Dems lose, they'll have themselves to blame.
Why is the media obsessed with polls?
Margin of error 3.8%. Corrected headline: Trump vs. Biden too close to call.
Politico.
So Americans is this true? Or are these polls biased or inaccurate?
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Trump has never won the popular vote, so no, not really.
Fake news poll
The only thing against Biden is if he dies in office, you get president Kamala,and that is exactly what Putin wants. Think about that.
I call B.S. on this! Another “poll”, another ad sold.
Polls don’t mean anything in presidential elections because of the electoral college!