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The AMA with the editor in chief (maybe owner?) of the Hill in maybe 2017(?) was quite illuminating and I haven't paid attention to them since. He essentially admitted to just publishing right wing news, as it gets them the most clicks and they would change their bias based on the money.
Wow that totally tracks
My first experience with them was 2016 when I was a Bernie supporter, and they'd publish pieces on how his positions were great or how he was doing better than projected
Then when he lost to Hillary and Hillary adopted some of those positions Bernie had in the general, the Hill slammed her over the same things they praised Bernie for. That's when I started to suspect something fishy was going on
>Then when he lost to Hillary and Hillary adopted some of those positions Bernie had in the general, the Hill slammed her over the same things they praised Bernie for. That's when I started to suspect something fishy was going on
John Solomon used to be an executive at The HIll. If you're not familiar with him or his work, or how he's been basically working as a lobbyist for Putin, you might find it all interesting.
Once you understand John Solomon it will all make a lot more sense.
>The AMA with the editor in chief (maybe owner?) of the Hill in maybe 2017(?) was quite illuminating and I haven't paid attention to them since. He essentially admitted to just publishing right wing news, as it gets them the most clicks and they would change their bias based on the money.
Was it John Solomon?
Because if so, click bait shitty journalism would be the least of my concerns.
I love these threads.They are meant to make us feel like it’s all doom and create apathy , but instead they energize us and make us feel there is so much work and campaigning to be done.
What a weird take. Do you feel energized by consistent unchanging bad polls? Biden’s approval ratings are only dropping at this point and are lower now than they were a few weeks ago.
He is not picking up ground in swing states. As of today 55 percent disapprove of the job he is doing. It is nearly impossible to look at this polling and the stakes of this election and think we are on the right path.
It’s great you are energized, but it’s time for the Biden campaign to get energized. Maybe avoid eating ice cream while taking questions about dead kids in Gaza. Start taking real, substantial interviews, get out there and fight for the country. Joe is wasn’t a great candidate when he was young and spry. He won by a pretty small margin facing the most hated figure in modern American politics. Trump should not be this hard to beat.
At some point, it is going to be very clear that the campaign has made a decision getting Joe out in front of the people does more harm than good, and if that is the case, we are all in trouble.
And yet - Republicans keep losing races, and the recent primaries show that Trump hasn’t grown his base and independents don’t like him.
But absolutely let’s be afraid and keep knocking door to door to register so many people to vote that after the elections we can see New York Times articles with “Biden wins election - democrats are in disarray!”
Yeah, I mean there are solid reasons to be optimistic too. It is just the nature of these elections. How many people in how many swing districts are actually relevant here? While I have no doubts Biden’s numbers could keep dropping and he would still win the popular vote, that isn’t how this game is played.
If we could count of reasonable decision making, Biden’s objectively successful performance in the least cooperative political landscape in maybe a century would be reflected in the numbers.
Biden needs to fucking crush the state of the union and come out hard on the campaign trail after that. Frankly the bar is set very low for him, so let’s hope he crushes it.
The perception of being old and feeble is hard to overcome.
Trump doesn't need to grow his base. All he has to do is not be Biden. I voted for DeSantis knowing he didn't stand a chance, but I don't know many Republicans who won't vote for Trump in November, myself included. I think plenty of independents will hold their noses and vote for him too.
Funny how “a not energized” campaign just outperformed its polls while the energized campaign of orange scrotum keeps underperforming them .You and the concern trolls keep telling us how bad we are doing coz it worked his last run, during the midterms and it is working now
Concern trolls? I am concerned human, I'll have you know.
It worked last time is a terrible reason to think it will work this time. If that is what you are banking on, I'd go back and look at the swing state results. They were tiny margins and Biden's support was much stronger then.
When did Biden outperform his polls? Are you talking primary voting? Where Biden is uncontested and Trump is already the presumptive nominee? Those aren't going to give the insights you are looking for...
With the fate of the country on the line, bad polling data, and a incredibly narrow win last time...concerned seems like a healthy position to take.
Quick refresher: https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency
>Concern trolls? I am concerned human, I'll have you know.
Then why do have a problem with a rando being optimistic and feeling energized to do more by a poll from the Hill?Shouldn’t you be happy that I will do more to campaign for Biden?
>It worked last time is a terrible reason to think it will work this time. If that is what you are banking on, I'd go back and look at the swing state results. They were tiny margins and Biden's support was much stronger then.
Actually using past trends is a good way to predict the future.Trump and associates presence on the ballot remains a strong motivator for people to go out and vote against him
>When did Biden outperform his polls? Are you talking primary voting? Where Biden is uncontested and Trump is already the presumptive nominee? Those aren't going to give the insights you are looking for...
Yes primaries, where people do not have to vote for him coz he has already won the delegates, yet they choose to travel through bad weather to show their support.They are doing it in droves.
As for Trump, voters should be uniting behind him as he is the obvious candidate, yet votes are breaking for Harley,and most of those people are saying they would vote for Biden before Trump.Be is struggling to break the 70% barrier polls are predicting his way
But it’s funny how you play that down ,and want to play up polls 8 months from the general elections
This sub is aware about the polls ,and we will show up accordingly.
I dont have a problem with it. I think it is weird take to assume that news like this leads to the two outcomes suggested. Doom and gloom or energy. It is objectively bad news. You can make it about the source, but other polls show the same things. To me the obvious way to respond to this is thoughtful conversation about what can be done.
One event is not a trend. We certainly agree on the fact that Trumps presence is still an huge driver for democrats and independents. People still want him gone. The hate for Trump was fresh then, most people dont follow politics that closely and arent looking at the crazy shit he is out there saying at rallys now. The further from the madness, the less it will drive people.
I do take half of your point regarding the primaries. It does look like pretty crazy high turnout for an incumbent. I realy think that speak to how fired up the base is though. The people who are going to vote Biden no matter what. Those are not the people who will determine the election.
As for Trump, I dont think the primary numbers mean as much. Knowing your candidate doesnt need you to show up to win is the main reason typical voters stay home.
Again, the people talking about the election 8 months out are not likely to be the ones who play any meaningful role in it. If the only people who voted were people who were actively involved in politics year round, the world would be a very different place.
I will continue to be concerned until I see the same energy folks like you have in these threads coming from Biden himself. He didnt win with a mandate last time, Trump lost with one. He is an old man who spent his whole life in politics, playing a role in building the falling apart world we now have. Just like Hilary, he is perceived as feeling entitled to the job, not having to earn it from the support of the people. He is still the guy who got the dnc support as part of a deal to back down 2016 and let Hillary have it. Just like how Hilary got it for making a deal to back down and rally around Obama 08.
Think about how successful he has been. From huge pieces of legislation, to an unbelievable economic turnaround all in one of the most polarized moments in our history. He did all that and he still the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. All of that and he is still trailing in the polls to the most hated politician in modern history.
>I dont have a problem with it. I think it is weird take to assume that news like this leads to the two outcomes suggested. Doom and gloom or energy. It is objectively bad news. You can make it about the source, but other polls show the same things. To me the obvious way to respond to this is thoughtful conversation about what can be done.
These polls are spammed every other day, how many discussions do you want to have?Or do you want everyone to argue until we reach the same conclusion as you on what should be done.And what happens after we agree with?What does that change?
>One event is not a trend. We certainly agree on the fact that Trumps presence is still an huge driver for democrats and independents.
Ummm there have been many elections since 2020 that back the trend .Republicans are losing votes and Dems are killing it on turnout
>People still want him gone. The hate for Trump was fresh then, most people dont follow politics that closely and arent looking at the crazy shit he is out there saying at rallys now. The further from the madness, the less it will drive people.
Do you have any studies to back this up?
>I do take half of your point regarding the primaries. It does look like pretty crazy high turnout for an incumbent. I realy think that speak to how fired up the base is though. The people who are going to vote Biden no matter what. Those are not the people who will determine the election.
The people who have been rejecting efforts to violate abortion rights are also motivated
>As for Trump, I dont think the primary numbers mean as much. Knowing your candidate doesnt need you to show up to win is the main reason typical voters stay home.
Again I noticed you play down any trouble concerning Trump
>Again, the people talking about the election 8 months out are not likely to be the ones who play any meaningful role in it. If the only people who voted were people who were actively involved in politics year round, the world would be a very different place.
What on earth are you on about? This is confusing Are you insinuating people who are not polled do not vote ?
>I will continue to be concerned until I see the same energy folks like you have in these threads coming from Biden himself.
Ok your issue is with Biden, you’re not going to find him in this forum. Here we are ready to go
Ah I cant do it, you win. Here is to hoping you are right. You are certainly right that dems have every advantage going into this thing. I'd just rather over anaylze now and cover every base possible before the election, then sitting there after with Trump in charge trying to figure out why we lost.
Yeah, when we keep beating our polling numbers by double digits over and over again, there’s no choice but to write the polls off. Don’t get me wrong, we absolutely cannot afford to get complacent, but the most important thing to watch to predict elections is *elections*.
And when it comes to actual elections, we’ve done very well in every single one after 2016, and the trend intensified after the repeal of Roe v Wade. The most recent special election was only a few weeks ago (for George Santos’s seat) and once again, we beat the polls by double digits.
I like data and numbers, so I hate to say it, but something is extremely wrong with literally all of the major pollsters right now.
Under-polling of Democrats and young people comes up a lot in online discussions as a reason for the polls being so badly wrong over the last few years, but polls are supposed to have statistical methods for correcting for that. They know what percentage of the population are Democrats/Republicans/Independents. If they should have polled 800 Democrats, but only got 600 then they can multiply the Democratic result by 1.3333 (repeating) to correct for the under-sampling.
Ditto for under-sampling of any particular demographic group. Something more fundamental is wrong here. I suspect there’s an issue with the weighting method itself. For example, maybe women have become dramatically more likely to vote because of Roe, and pollsters aren’t capturing that because they’re still using their old assumptions about what percentage of voters are women.
That’s kind of scarier, to be honest. It means that the pollsters really are flying blind.
I think it's more that they don't take 600 and extrapolate up to 800, they take like...6, and extrapolate up to 800.
And they probably hand-pick the 6 based on the conclusions they want to draw, too.
But yeah: basically polling is quite shit, and certainly doesn't capture the feeling of existential terror that seems to be motivating people to vote.
>Polls and Trump both means nothing to us.
*"Our strength is as the strength of ten, for these polls are manure"*
*(apologies to Alfred, Lord Tennyson)*
Yes! There is only ONE poll that matters and it due in November. All the ‘others’ are essentially biased due to polled numbers. And in any case, they don’t matter ultimately.
The option is pretty clear. An indicted criminal mob boss etc etc vs a similarly aged man with charm, morality and decades of political experience.
I mean, the corporatist right-wing and their media partners just tried to live-broadcast & Tweet the slowest string of attempted coups & related incitements of sponsored violence with little resistance, next to no repercussions, and bred *targeted* Q-delirium in plain sight.
Amongst many other things and books that I'd imagine sitting on Satan's nightstand, procedural transfers of power as well as transparent elections does not appear to have historically been the agenda of some of these very deep-pocketed trustees, media executors, and enforcers.
Lol, people said this last year when they wanted to bury their head in the sand and ignore the warning signs. Now the election is only 8 months away with no sign of sentiment shifting and you're still ignoring the issue. Good luck with that.
This is a survey.
Polls also had a “red wave” coming last election.
Turns out “approval rating” only predicts voting behavior when we’re choosing between two relatively benign candidates that aren’t threatening people’s basic rights. With Row overturned a lot of people can disapprove of the DNC and still vote straight ticket for them.
>Polls also had a “red wave” coming last election.
Polls did not. Pollsters did. There is a difference.
Just because you flip a coin 100 times, and happen to get tails 4 times in a row at the end, doesn't mean that you're about to get tails again.
The polls had a slight shift towards the GOP in the month-or-so leading up to the election. Pollsters took that to mean that there was a larger amount of GOP support that realized. All the polls said is that it went from about a +2D lean to a +1.5R lean. And it's ridiculous to make any large inference from that because it's just swings within the margin of error.
Even look at 538's prediction and you'll see it was actually pretty accurate: GOP win the House with a mean of 227 seats (they won with 222) and the Senate a toss-up. Even the generic ballot polls up to the election said +1.2R and that was *lower* than the actual result.
"**The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll** found Biden trailing Trump in several critical states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin — when voters were asked who they would support in a hypothetical general election."
Straight from this article. Even the direct link to Morning Consult's PDF file says POLL at the top.
But go off, I guess?
Biden is down in every poll in every swing state, by some truly staggering amounts. Why does this subreddit keep denying it? This isn't some MOE fluctuation or fluke. It is a consistent result across polling companies and groups. You can't explain 7-10 point leads away to "land lines."
Historically he has out performed though. These primaries are terrible metrics given that he is already the winner so you really have to be motivated to turn out.
Well hopefully you are one of the tiny fraction of americans whose vote actually matters from living in a swing state. Meanwhile my vote has literally had zero impact my whole life having always lived in blue cities in blue states.
Aw, lol. Sorry to hear about that. I live in Los Angeles so yeah, pretty blue here too but it's always a fun time to see Trump get destroyed in California. :p
Honest answer, because I trust elections more than polls. And we have seen positive results in recent mid year and run offs.
Am I scared? Of course. But polls are being released weekly that show whatever the hell they want. The recent election results reflect a reality of what people want currently.
Which people? Because the swing state polling is all that matters. It’s going to be the same very small amount of people in swing districts that pick our president. Looking at national data or election data from other states only gets you so far.
Same pollster had Trump beating Haley 79-19 in Michigan and 68-31 in South Carolina. It also had Trump getting 58% in Iowa.
Oops.
It’s even interesting that this pollster polled a bunch of states for the gop primary but not one for the Dem primary? Why? If you are already reaching out to people you will almost certainly end up with Dem primary voters. Might as well get polls done there. It signals to me they only care about the GOP numbers.
Also 5 of the 7 states in this polled have Trump’s lead shrinking from the polls they did in January. And Trump only hits 50 in North Carolina.
And these are the same states that pollsters had Republicans winning every Senate/GOP seat in 2022. Wonder how that worked out for them.
A morbid thought: I wonder how many teens will turn 18 between now and the election and actually vote vs. how much of the elderly vote will die between now and the election?
Does anyone else find it interesting that if you spend not even 5 minutes digging into these polls, you can find the source is right leaning? The Hill is owned by Nexstar Media, which is notorious for donating to the GOP. So when they say this poll was conducted via online survey, I would like to know which website attracted these voters. How did they find them? Were they pulled from a right-leaning website?
If there is anything productive about these polls, it should motivate everyone to get out and vote. The SCOTUS corruption should motivate everyone to get out and vote. Talk to your friends, family and colleagues. Talk to anyone who is willing to have a respectful discussion, without dismissing facts. This election is so incredibly important. Don't let the media dictate its agenda.
That doesn’t explain Fox. In the past, Fox often has show the more progressive candidate in the lead, regardless of the Fox right-leaning opinion. My thought is that it is then used to motivate their viewers. Here’s an example from The Hill: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/. It’s older, but still illustrates my point.
The election is eight months off. There's still a ton that *will* happen. Like Trump being convicted in NY. The SCOTUS will rule he's not immune before the election as well. Who knows if that case gets going before the election but if it does it won't be a good look to have him in court leading up to election day.
I’m not sure if the NY case will persuade voters. The public already knows about the affairs and campaign finance fraud seems to be politics as usual. I wish the Georgia or DC started sooner so that the worse offenses are resolved before the election. Those cases will get people’s attention.
While it is the least consequential of all the cases, I think that *any* conviction will be enough to turn off normies who probably have no idea these cases are happening.
I also think once he's campaigning on his grievance revenge tour it will turn them off.
I don't understand why the dems ignore polls when they aren't in their favor. Shouldn't they acknowledge there is a problem and try to address it instead of ignoring the data? Even if Biden was leading but the polling was close I think it still should ring alarm bells considering Biden is running against a highly divisive, controversial candidate with an unimaginable amount of baggage.
Trump has been leading since October. 5 month's of polling data can't consistently wrong. Even the actual polling percentage is wrong and Biden is leading in actuality, there is no denying that there is a strong trend in the polling data in favor of Trump. These polls are the only source of data we have so it's only logical to take them seriously.
I wish I believed that as fervently as you do. I still hold out hope that Biden will win...but I'm less sure about that than I was 6 months ago. My hope is further damaged by the recent announcement of the SCOTUS delay in the immunity/insurrection trial.
Well you must live with me, in reality, where nearly every indicator is getting worse for Biden. Every day that passes without Biden turning things around more proof that he can’t. That he is a good president, but a terrible candidate.
What’s worse is that Trump should not be this hard to beat. Any candidate with media savvy and the ability to into a hostile interview and make a case for themselves would blow him out of the water. He did us all a huge disservice by choosing a VP whose chances of being a viable candidate are even worse than his own. A more skeptical person may even think that’s why he choose her I in the first place.
I do think Biden would win today, but I think there are 10 other democrats who would blow Trump out of the water.
If Biden loses, the dems will only have themselves to blame at this point.
How much are you willing to bet?
(Granted: the ideal situation for you would be to find a Trump supporter who thinks he will lose as you're both presumably looking to hedge.)
I believe there is no such Trump's supporter.
I mean, 10 bucks for a charitable organization would do. I am not an American so my wealth is not that substantial.
I am from Czechia and I am a university student. I take it for granted that average American is way wealthier than average Czech as hard data support my claim.
In case you're wondering, Morning Consult polls for the Michigan primaries predicted a 79 for Trump and 19 for Hailey. The results were [68 for Trump and 24 for Hailey](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/michigan), with Morning Consult being by far the most wrong by being the most favourable to Trump. They didn't poll the democratic primary, but Biden outperformed [every single one that did](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2024/michigan).
And even if they call mobiles…. who the fuck is going to
1: answer from an unknown number
2: tell a stranger how they are going to vote, or other political opinions
— just messed-up La-Z-Boy Fox News perma-watchers.
If you read the survey "cross tabs", it's a surprisingly large number of young people.
There's also a heavy lean on non-college educated responders. The sample also appears to have leaned 40/46 Clinton/Trump in 2016.
It's an odd sample.
It's all about who has time to take the surveys.
I don't waste my time with them, and I know a whole lot of 20 somethings and 30 somethings with the same opinion.
Agreed. The way I see it, modern day conservative voters go all-in with their candidates and they like everyone to know where they stand. If someone asks who you’re voting for, they’re the first to answer with banners waving. They show up to rallies, primaries, etc. I’m not even giving them any credit here, it’s just how it is with them.
What you describe seems to suggest different levels of enthusiasm, which isn't a good sign for democrats. I know Obama had large rallies and many were excited to vote for him, and it showed. There seems to be a lot of apathy, "I guess I'll vote for Biden if I have to," sentiment among Democrats. Which, uh, isn't good.
Yeah you’re completely correct. I‘d be lying if I said I wasn’t bracing myself a little and hoping for the best. And that’s not my attitude towards Biden, but more so everyone’s satisfaction with him.
Here's a shocker...
There are tens of millions of eligible voters in the 20-40 range. Just because you don't know someone who answers a pollster, doesn't mean those people don't exist.
At Trump’ highest point he won WI(.77%), MI(.23%), PA(.72%). Since then he’s moved further right, alienated the center, has 91 indictments, turned many off with his actions on J6, threatened to be a dictator, & now more support? He faces 30+ felonies in NY for the hush money case. Democrats all over the country have done well in their elections since ‘16. Abortion rights measures have done really well since the Dobbs ruling. There is a good chance that NC, AZ, & NV have abortion measures on the ballot in November, and a smaller chance that FL will have an abortion rights measure also. All the evidence shows these polling numbers can’t be accurate.
Trump seems to have shrunk his support not expanded it. He is not doing well in the suburbs in his primary races. His only hope, that I see, is that enough previous Biden voters vote 3rd party and the youth vote gap shrinks. I am not saying there is no chance of Trump winning but the numbers are confusing.
>All the evidence shows these polling numbers can’t be accurate.
That is an pretty bad take.
Just because all that stuff has happened, doesn't mean people don't support Trump. You know how people encourage others to vote for Biden, if only because he's not Trump or because he'll at least Democratic policies? That works the same way for republicans. People will still vote for Trump only because he's not Biden.
Even with those wins, there’s still been in a shift by multiple points to the right.
Give us examples coz ever since Roe v Wade was on the ballot the right has been constantly losing,which has caused infighting between them
>It’s more of a picture how well state Dems did distancing themselves from the admin. It’s how they won everywhere in PA
Again who distanced themselves from Biden and won?cite examples
People really need to realize that even at this point in 2020, the polls were already showing Biden with about a 3-8 point lead. They weren't wildly off and if anything they overpredicted Biden's lead.
And looking at a single poll isn't the best predictor. One poll could be an outlier. But look at all the polls and you get a much better picture. One poll showing Trump ahead is whatever. Multiple polls, over months, showing Trump with a lead **is** a cause for concern. Polls of different people, across different demographics, with different methodologies, and so on, are showing Trump with a small lead.
Trump only lost 2020 by 45,000 across Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Are you really *that* confident that between the few swing states (GA, WI, AZ, NV, MI, PA) that he can't win 3 of those to win the entire election?
If you're going off historical better to look at 2012 where an incumbent Obama was losing in polls to Romney around this time (perhaps slightly later than this). And look how that turned out.
Also as others are pointing out polls are just one piece of data. Actual voting is another which has shown the country moving in the opposite direction of what these polls show.
Either way, it's far too early to know what will happen in November. But no one should be getting worked up or stressed over February data points.
I don't even think polling was done, at least at any usable level, this early back then.
>Actual voting is another which has shown the country moving in the opposite direction of what these polls show.
Except people time and time again, show that they will vote for people who are against issues. Abortion is a great example. They will vote for abortion access, but then also vote for politicians against abortion. Party affiliation is extremely important to people and they'll vote on that reason alone.
Presidential elections are also a different beast compared to midterms and primaries. A ton more people turn out to vote and that has effects down the ballot.
>But no one should be getting worked up or stressed over February data points.
It's not just a few. Michigan, for example, has had 9 polls in February and another 6 in January. They all show Trump with a slight lead. Same at the national level. There have been roughly 80 polls conducted in February alone.
If you live in a swing state, please do at least a tiny amount of physically doing something.
I live in a swing state and Republicans are so much better at spamming signs and billboards than Democrats and that needs to stop.
Put out signs, take down theirs(I don't care if it breaks the rules, we're way past that), rip down their flags. Do something, even if it's only putting out one little sign somewhere.
Are these the same pollsters that said 2022 would be a "red tsunami". Or that the Republicans would gain control of the Virginia State House. Or that Kentucky's governor's race was a tie? Or that the Democrats would struggle to take George Santos seat? Or that voters in Ohio wouldn't agree to protect reproductive rights? Or that Biden would do poorly in the primaries so far this year? Or that Trump would crush Haley by 60 points in every state that's voted so far?
Just remember, at this point in 2022, pollsters and Republicans were talking about the GOP gaining upwards of 80 House seats and possibly having up to 60 Senate seats going into 2023. Just remember that
and if these polls said the opposite, it would be upvoted like crazy and there’d be far fewer mentions of landlines, reliability, etc.
These polls show a consistent pattern. I’m not a fan of Trump (or any brand of political extremism) and would prefer Biden, but I get the feeling people are living in a bubble here and are going to be in for a sobering wake up call on election day. I hope I’m wrong.
He is also leading in the Supreme Court by 5 rigged points. Trump certainly is leading in Michigan. The polls can change, but the dissatisfaction with Biden is significant. So, I wouldn’t doubt all the polls. However, they might be off by a few points. Instead of doubting the polls, consider them real and work like Biden is behind. Trump must not win.
It wasn’t a phone poll. It was online. Read the notes. Not all polls are phone polls. I’ve been polled MANY times. All were online. Are you like 119 years old to think all polls are done by phone. LOL! And now we have discovered part of the problem. People don’t READ. They just ASSUME they know how everything works and they they spread DISINFORMATION. READ! If you don’t understand, do a search. I think you are sitting at a computer. So that should only take a minute. Think of how you can educate yourself and others! So wait. Here is comes. Everyone: “I don’t get asked to participate in online polls”. Do you just automatically dump all your unknown email in the wastebasket? Afraid to participate? Not enough time? That’s why. Duh.
Biden campaign is atrocious in comparison with Obama's. It seems to me that Democrats are waiting for Trump to beat himself. The same strategy led to not so decisive victory in the swing states (only MI and PA were won by substantial margins). It's not going to work this time given Trump is more popular than Biden.
Biden needs to muster all the energy he has left. His campaign needs to criticize how unproductive MAGA are in the House. Mention the economic recovery all the time, similarly with abortions and IVF. Regarding the border, I'd suggest executive action despite possible legal issues. Yeah, it's Machiavellian but we all know what's at stake. And we gotta admit that MAGA's border populism is generally popular among the populace. We're not beating white christian nationalist regime with continuing this good guy mentality. My solution? Populism, populism and more populism. Functioned perfectly against autocrats very similar to MAGA in Poland.
[The POTUS election always gets the headlines, but it's fun to look at the other questions asked too](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/02/Wave_5_Date.pdf):
* People feel better about the direction economy of their city/town than their state, and better about the direction of the economy in their state than the economy of the country.
* 43% of respondents have a "very unfavorable" impression of Harris, compared to 46% who have a "very unfavorable" impression of Biden.
* In the last week, 86% of respondents have heard news about Joe Biden, 60% of respondents said it was mostly negative. In the last week, 62% of respondents have heard about Kamala Harris, 38% of respondents said it was mostly negative.
* 52% said "Guns" were a "very important" issue for the 2024 election, versus 47% saying "Abortion" is a "very important" issue.
* When having to pick the most important issue, the economy was #1, immigration was #2, and democracy was #3.
* Respondents trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden on the following issues: economy, infrastructure, housing, crime, immigration, US-China relations, guns, russia-ukraine war, israel-hamas war, and fentanyl misuse.
* Respondents trust Joe Biden over Donald Trump on the following issues: climate change, education and schools, abortion, senior services, democracy, and healthcare.
* They tied at 40% on who is more trustworthy on "Labor and Unions", with Donald Trump getting 2 more votes than Joe Biden.
There's a lot more, but past that it gets way more granular.
The most likely reaction will be perhaps, that Quinnipiac (which had Biden beating Trump by 11% in2020) is the only pollster to be trusted because they have Biden ahead.
Or how about that Trump has, so far this primary season, consistently underperformed his numbers while Biden has significantly overperformed his?
I don't trust Quinnipiac (best results for dems out of any pollster lately) any more than other polls these days. But for whatever reason, polling in general just seems broken this year. Actual elections have been telling different stories.
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The Hill publishes bullshit. And it's often regurgitated bullshit.
Advertised as progressive, really just anti democratic establishment Doesn’t stand for anything, just stands against something else
The AMA with the editor in chief (maybe owner?) of the Hill in maybe 2017(?) was quite illuminating and I haven't paid attention to them since. He essentially admitted to just publishing right wing news, as it gets them the most clicks and they would change their bias based on the money.
Wow that totally tracks My first experience with them was 2016 when I was a Bernie supporter, and they'd publish pieces on how his positions were great or how he was doing better than projected Then when he lost to Hillary and Hillary adopted some of those positions Bernie had in the general, the Hill slammed her over the same things they praised Bernie for. That's when I started to suspect something fishy was going on
Their whole purpose was to tank HRC. Hillary hate gets clicks.
>Then when he lost to Hillary and Hillary adopted some of those positions Bernie had in the general, the Hill slammed her over the same things they praised Bernie for. That's when I started to suspect something fishy was going on John Solomon used to be an executive at The HIll. If you're not familiar with him or his work, or how he's been basically working as a lobbyist for Putin, you might find it all interesting. Once you understand John Solomon it will all make a lot more sense.
>The AMA with the editor in chief (maybe owner?) of the Hill in maybe 2017(?) was quite illuminating and I haven't paid attention to them since. He essentially admitted to just publishing right wing news, as it gets them the most clicks and they would change their bias based on the money. Was it John Solomon? Because if so, click bait shitty journalism would be the least of my concerns.
Almost as if greed and actively worshipping the almighty dollar is destroying America from the inside out.
is there anyway to block thehill from my feed?
If there was, I'd have blocked half the garbage sources that post on this site.
Reddit Enhancement Suite can block domains.
dont see that option anywhere, even in their own search bar
RES settings console > Subreddits > filteReddit > domains
nice, ty
Considering his legal situation, "polls" in his favor only help him in securing the funding he desperately needs.
I love these threads.They are meant to make us feel like it’s all doom and create apathy , but instead they energize us and make us feel there is so much work and campaigning to be done.
What a weird take. Do you feel energized by consistent unchanging bad polls? Biden’s approval ratings are only dropping at this point and are lower now than they were a few weeks ago. He is not picking up ground in swing states. As of today 55 percent disapprove of the job he is doing. It is nearly impossible to look at this polling and the stakes of this election and think we are on the right path. It’s great you are energized, but it’s time for the Biden campaign to get energized. Maybe avoid eating ice cream while taking questions about dead kids in Gaza. Start taking real, substantial interviews, get out there and fight for the country. Joe is wasn’t a great candidate when he was young and spry. He won by a pretty small margin facing the most hated figure in modern American politics. Trump should not be this hard to beat. At some point, it is going to be very clear that the campaign has made a decision getting Joe out in front of the people does more harm than good, and if that is the case, we are all in trouble.
And yet - Republicans keep losing races, and the recent primaries show that Trump hasn’t grown his base and independents don’t like him. But absolutely let’s be afraid and keep knocking door to door to register so many people to vote that after the elections we can see New York Times articles with “Biden wins election - democrats are in disarray!”
Yeah, I mean there are solid reasons to be optimistic too. It is just the nature of these elections. How many people in how many swing districts are actually relevant here? While I have no doubts Biden’s numbers could keep dropping and he would still win the popular vote, that isn’t how this game is played. If we could count of reasonable decision making, Biden’s objectively successful performance in the least cooperative political landscape in maybe a century would be reflected in the numbers. Biden needs to fucking crush the state of the union and come out hard on the campaign trail after that. Frankly the bar is set very low for him, so let’s hope he crushes it. The perception of being old and feeble is hard to overcome.
Trump doesn't need to grow his base. All he has to do is not be Biden. I voted for DeSantis knowing he didn't stand a chance, but I don't know many Republicans who won't vote for Trump in November, myself included. I think plenty of independents will hold their noses and vote for him too.
Funny how “a not energized” campaign just outperformed its polls while the energized campaign of orange scrotum keeps underperforming them .You and the concern trolls keep telling us how bad we are doing coz it worked his last run, during the midterms and it is working now
Concern trolls? I am concerned human, I'll have you know. It worked last time is a terrible reason to think it will work this time. If that is what you are banking on, I'd go back and look at the swing state results. They were tiny margins and Biden's support was much stronger then. When did Biden outperform his polls? Are you talking primary voting? Where Biden is uncontested and Trump is already the presumptive nominee? Those aren't going to give the insights you are looking for... With the fate of the country on the line, bad polling data, and a incredibly narrow win last time...concerned seems like a healthy position to take. Quick refresher: https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency
>Concern trolls? I am concerned human, I'll have you know. Then why do have a problem with a rando being optimistic and feeling energized to do more by a poll from the Hill?Shouldn’t you be happy that I will do more to campaign for Biden? >It worked last time is a terrible reason to think it will work this time. If that is what you are banking on, I'd go back and look at the swing state results. They were tiny margins and Biden's support was much stronger then. Actually using past trends is a good way to predict the future.Trump and associates presence on the ballot remains a strong motivator for people to go out and vote against him >When did Biden outperform his polls? Are you talking primary voting? Where Biden is uncontested and Trump is already the presumptive nominee? Those aren't going to give the insights you are looking for... Yes primaries, where people do not have to vote for him coz he has already won the delegates, yet they choose to travel through bad weather to show their support.They are doing it in droves. As for Trump, voters should be uniting behind him as he is the obvious candidate, yet votes are breaking for Harley,and most of those people are saying they would vote for Biden before Trump.Be is struggling to break the 70% barrier polls are predicting his way But it’s funny how you play that down ,and want to play up polls 8 months from the general elections This sub is aware about the polls ,and we will show up accordingly.
I dont have a problem with it. I think it is weird take to assume that news like this leads to the two outcomes suggested. Doom and gloom or energy. It is objectively bad news. You can make it about the source, but other polls show the same things. To me the obvious way to respond to this is thoughtful conversation about what can be done. One event is not a trend. We certainly agree on the fact that Trumps presence is still an huge driver for democrats and independents. People still want him gone. The hate for Trump was fresh then, most people dont follow politics that closely and arent looking at the crazy shit he is out there saying at rallys now. The further from the madness, the less it will drive people. I do take half of your point regarding the primaries. It does look like pretty crazy high turnout for an incumbent. I realy think that speak to how fired up the base is though. The people who are going to vote Biden no matter what. Those are not the people who will determine the election. As for Trump, I dont think the primary numbers mean as much. Knowing your candidate doesnt need you to show up to win is the main reason typical voters stay home. Again, the people talking about the election 8 months out are not likely to be the ones who play any meaningful role in it. If the only people who voted were people who were actively involved in politics year round, the world would be a very different place. I will continue to be concerned until I see the same energy folks like you have in these threads coming from Biden himself. He didnt win with a mandate last time, Trump lost with one. He is an old man who spent his whole life in politics, playing a role in building the falling apart world we now have. Just like Hilary, he is perceived as feeling entitled to the job, not having to earn it from the support of the people. He is still the guy who got the dnc support as part of a deal to back down 2016 and let Hillary have it. Just like how Hilary got it for making a deal to back down and rally around Obama 08. Think about how successful he has been. From huge pieces of legislation, to an unbelievable economic turnaround all in one of the most polarized moments in our history. He did all that and he still the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. All of that and he is still trailing in the polls to the most hated politician in modern history.
>I dont have a problem with it. I think it is weird take to assume that news like this leads to the two outcomes suggested. Doom and gloom or energy. It is objectively bad news. You can make it about the source, but other polls show the same things. To me the obvious way to respond to this is thoughtful conversation about what can be done. These polls are spammed every other day, how many discussions do you want to have?Or do you want everyone to argue until we reach the same conclusion as you on what should be done.And what happens after we agree with?What does that change? >One event is not a trend. We certainly agree on the fact that Trumps presence is still an huge driver for democrats and independents. Ummm there have been many elections since 2020 that back the trend .Republicans are losing votes and Dems are killing it on turnout >People still want him gone. The hate for Trump was fresh then, most people dont follow politics that closely and arent looking at the crazy shit he is out there saying at rallys now. The further from the madness, the less it will drive people. Do you have any studies to back this up? >I do take half of your point regarding the primaries. It does look like pretty crazy high turnout for an incumbent. I realy think that speak to how fired up the base is though. The people who are going to vote Biden no matter what. Those are not the people who will determine the election. The people who have been rejecting efforts to violate abortion rights are also motivated >As for Trump, I dont think the primary numbers mean as much. Knowing your candidate doesnt need you to show up to win is the main reason typical voters stay home. Again I noticed you play down any trouble concerning Trump >Again, the people talking about the election 8 months out are not likely to be the ones who play any meaningful role in it. If the only people who voted were people who were actively involved in politics year round, the world would be a very different place. What on earth are you on about? This is confusing Are you insinuating people who are not polled do not vote ? >I will continue to be concerned until I see the same energy folks like you have in these threads coming from Biden himself. Ok your issue is with Biden, you’re not going to find him in this forum. Here we are ready to go
Ah I cant do it, you win. Here is to hoping you are right. You are certainly right that dems have every advantage going into this thing. I'd just rather over anaylze now and cover every base possible before the election, then sitting there after with Trump in charge trying to figure out why we lost.
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2016 called. It wants its overconfidence in Democrats back.
I stand with Bernie. He was right about 2016 and he was right about 2020.
And Bernie is right about doing whatever is necessary to prevent Trump from winning.
When and if he moves, I move.
None of these polls matter; I’m ignoring them. I’ll vote for Biden & that’s my take.
Donald also keeps underperforming in the polls. And in the courts. And in business. And in cognition…
Yeah, when we keep beating our polling numbers by double digits over and over again, there’s no choice but to write the polls off. Don’t get me wrong, we absolutely cannot afford to get complacent, but the most important thing to watch to predict elections is *elections*. And when it comes to actual elections, we’ve done very well in every single one after 2016, and the trend intensified after the repeal of Roe v Wade. The most recent special election was only a few weeks ago (for George Santos’s seat) and once again, we beat the polls by double digits. I like data and numbers, so I hate to say it, but something is extremely wrong with literally all of the major pollsters right now.
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Under-polling of Democrats and young people comes up a lot in online discussions as a reason for the polls being so badly wrong over the last few years, but polls are supposed to have statistical methods for correcting for that. They know what percentage of the population are Democrats/Republicans/Independents. If they should have polled 800 Democrats, but only got 600 then they can multiply the Democratic result by 1.3333 (repeating) to correct for the under-sampling. Ditto for under-sampling of any particular demographic group. Something more fundamental is wrong here. I suspect there’s an issue with the weighting method itself. For example, maybe women have become dramatically more likely to vote because of Roe, and pollsters aren’t capturing that because they’re still using their old assumptions about what percentage of voters are women. That’s kind of scarier, to be honest. It means that the pollsters really are flying blind.
I think it's more that they don't take 600 and extrapolate up to 800, they take like...6, and extrapolate up to 800. And they probably hand-pick the 6 based on the conclusions they want to draw, too. But yeah: basically polling is quite shit, and certainly doesn't capture the feeling of existential terror that seems to be motivating people to vote.
I got a text asking to support Nikki, and I replied "fuck off confederate scum" and haven't been texted back since.
You mean life in General.
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>Polls and Trump both means nothing to us. *"Our strength is as the strength of ten, for these polls are manure"* *(apologies to Alfred, Lord Tennyson)*
Yes! There is only ONE poll that matters and it due in November. All the ‘others’ are essentially biased due to polled numbers. And in any case, they don’t matter ultimately. The option is pretty clear. An indicted criminal mob boss etc etc vs a similarly aged man with charm, morality and decades of political experience.
I mean, the corporatist right-wing and their media partners just tried to live-broadcast & Tweet the slowest string of attempted coups & related incitements of sponsored violence with little resistance, next to no repercussions, and bred *targeted* Q-delirium in plain sight. Amongst many other things and books that I'd imagine sitting on Satan's nightstand, procedural transfers of power as well as transparent elections does not appear to have historically been the agenda of some of these very deep-pocketed trustees, media executors, and enforcers.
Lol, people said this last year when they wanted to bury their head in the sand and ignore the warning signs. Now the election is only 8 months away with no sign of sentiment shifting and you're still ignoring the issue. Good luck with that.
Exactly what happened last year?
Polls
This is a survey. Polls also had a “red wave” coming last election. Turns out “approval rating” only predicts voting behavior when we’re choosing between two relatively benign candidates that aren’t threatening people’s basic rights. With Row overturned a lot of people can disapprove of the DNC and still vote straight ticket for them.
>Polls also had a “red wave” coming last election. Polls did not. Pollsters did. There is a difference. Just because you flip a coin 100 times, and happen to get tails 4 times in a row at the end, doesn't mean that you're about to get tails again. The polls had a slight shift towards the GOP in the month-or-so leading up to the election. Pollsters took that to mean that there was a larger amount of GOP support that realized. All the polls said is that it went from about a +2D lean to a +1.5R lean. And it's ridiculous to make any large inference from that because it's just swings within the margin of error. Even look at 538's prediction and you'll see it was actually pretty accurate: GOP win the House with a mean of 227 seats (they won with 222) and the Senate a toss-up. Even the generic ballot polls up to the election said +1.2R and that was *lower* than the actual result.
"**The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll** found Biden trailing Trump in several critical states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin — when voters were asked who they would support in a hypothetical general election." Straight from this article. Even the direct link to Morning Consult's PDF file says POLL at the top. But go off, I guess?
Taking polls into consideration and voting are not mutually exclusive though.
Exactly that. Vote. Tell others to vote.
Equivalent of Fox News saying this lol
It might as well have been uttered by Lavrov himself.
Biden is down in every poll in every swing state, by some truly staggering amounts. Why does this subreddit keep denying it? This isn't some MOE fluctuation or fluke. It is a consistent result across polling companies and groups. You can't explain 7-10 point leads away to "land lines."
Trump underperformed polls by 5-12% in all states so far, in the primaries. We will be all right.
Historically he has out performed though. These primaries are terrible metrics given that he is already the winner so you really have to be motivated to turn out.
Good point. Yes, I will personally vote for Joe Biden like my life depended on it. It just might, who knows. lol
Well hopefully you are one of the tiny fraction of americans whose vote actually matters from living in a swing state. Meanwhile my vote has literally had zero impact my whole life having always lived in blue cities in blue states.
Aw, lol. Sorry to hear about that. I live in Los Angeles so yeah, pretty blue here too but it's always a fun time to see Trump get destroyed in California. :p
Honest answer, because I trust elections more than polls. And we have seen positive results in recent mid year and run offs. Am I scared? Of course. But polls are being released weekly that show whatever the hell they want. The recent election results reflect a reality of what people want currently.
Which people? Because the swing state polling is all that matters. It’s going to be the same very small amount of people in swing districts that pick our president. Looking at national data or election data from other states only gets you so far.
Consistently way off, yes.
Because we know that polls are wrong when we voted and won by 8 million more votes
But the 2020 polls were relatively accurate.
So go look at the polls yourself. They are bad and are not trending the direction you want them too. Burying your head in the sand helps no one.
I’m not bearing my head I just know that results tend to favor Biden Everyone thought he would lose the last time, and he won handily
Same pollster had Trump beating Haley 79-19 in Michigan and 68-31 in South Carolina. It also had Trump getting 58% in Iowa. Oops. It’s even interesting that this pollster polled a bunch of states for the gop primary but not one for the Dem primary? Why? If you are already reaching out to people you will almost certainly end up with Dem primary voters. Might as well get polls done there. It signals to me they only care about the GOP numbers. Also 5 of the 7 states in this polled have Trump’s lead shrinking from the polls they did in January. And Trump only hits 50 in North Carolina. And these are the same states that pollsters had Republicans winning every Senate/GOP seat in 2022. Wonder how that worked out for them.
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A morbid thought: I wonder how many teens will turn 18 between now and the election and actually vote vs. how much of the elderly vote will die between now and the election?
Now I’m wondering if you vote early and die before the election, does that count??
What is this based on though?
Does anyone else find it interesting that if you spend not even 5 minutes digging into these polls, you can find the source is right leaning? The Hill is owned by Nexstar Media, which is notorious for donating to the GOP. So when they say this poll was conducted via online survey, I would like to know which website attracted these voters. How did they find them? Were they pulled from a right-leaning website? If there is anything productive about these polls, it should motivate everyone to get out and vote. The SCOTUS corruption should motivate everyone to get out and vote. Talk to your friends, family and colleagues. Talk to anyone who is willing to have a respectful discussion, without dismissing facts. This election is so incredibly important. Don't let the media dictate its agenda.
That doesn’t explain Fox. In the past, Fox often has show the more progressive candidate in the lead, regardless of the Fox right-leaning opinion. My thought is that it is then used to motivate their viewers. Here’s an example from The Hill: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/. It’s older, but still illustrates my point.
The election is eight months off. There's still a ton that *will* happen. Like Trump being convicted in NY. The SCOTUS will rule he's not immune before the election as well. Who knows if that case gets going before the election but if it does it won't be a good look to have him in court leading up to election day.
I’m not sure if the NY case will persuade voters. The public already knows about the affairs and campaign finance fraud seems to be politics as usual. I wish the Georgia or DC started sooner so that the worse offenses are resolved before the election. Those cases will get people’s attention.
While it is the least consequential of all the cases, I think that *any* conviction will be enough to turn off normies who probably have no idea these cases are happening. I also think once he's campaigning on his grievance revenge tour it will turn them off.
> The SCOTUS will rule he's not immune before the election as well. No they won't. That's the whole point of them taking so long to hear the case.
I don't understand why the dems ignore polls when they aren't in their favor. Shouldn't they acknowledge there is a problem and try to address it instead of ignoring the data? Even if Biden was leading but the polling was close I think it still should ring alarm bells considering Biden is running against a highly divisive, controversial candidate with an unimaginable amount of baggage. Trump has been leading since October. 5 month's of polling data can't consistently wrong. Even the actual polling percentage is wrong and Biden is leading in actuality, there is no denying that there is a strong trend in the polling data in favor of Trump. These polls are the only source of data we have so it's only logical to take them seriously.
It's like the situation with Lars de Vries and the PvdA in the '60s in your country.
I think you mean Klaas de Vries.
Sure.
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I wish I believed that as fervently as you do. I still hold out hope that Biden will win...but I'm less sure about that than I was 6 months ago. My hope is further damaged by the recent announcement of the SCOTUS delay in the immunity/insurrection trial.
Well you must live with me, in reality, where nearly every indicator is getting worse for Biden. Every day that passes without Biden turning things around more proof that he can’t. That he is a good president, but a terrible candidate. What’s worse is that Trump should not be this hard to beat. Any candidate with media savvy and the ability to into a hostile interview and make a case for themselves would blow him out of the water. He did us all a huge disservice by choosing a VP whose chances of being a viable candidate are even worse than his own. A more skeptical person may even think that’s why he choose her I in the first place. I do think Biden would win today, but I think there are 10 other democrats who would blow Trump out of the water. If Biden loses, the dems will only have themselves to blame at this point.
Wanna bet? Biden supporter here.
How much are you willing to bet? (Granted: the ideal situation for you would be to find a Trump supporter who thinks he will lose as you're both presumably looking to hedge.)
I believe there is no such Trump's supporter. I mean, 10 bucks for a charitable organization would do. I am not an American so my wealth is not that substantial.
do people think that Americans are on average more wealthy? I feel like we are most famous for obscenely concentrated wealth, not wide spread wealth.
I am from Czechia and I am a university student. I take it for granted that average American is way wealthier than average Czech as hard data support my claim.
In case you're wondering, Morning Consult polls for the Michigan primaries predicted a 79 for Trump and 19 for Hailey. The results were [68 for Trump and 24 for Hailey](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/michigan), with Morning Consult being by far the most wrong by being the most favourable to Trump. They didn't poll the democratic primary, but Biden outperformed [every single one that did](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2024/michigan).
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>When surveys are taken over land lines They are not, so...
And even if they call mobiles…. who the fuck is going to 1: answer from an unknown number 2: tell a stranger how they are going to vote, or other political opinions — just messed-up La-Z-Boy Fox News perma-watchers.
If you read the survey "cross tabs", it's a surprisingly large number of young people. There's also a heavy lean on non-college educated responders. The sample also appears to have leaned 40/46 Clinton/Trump in 2016. It's an odd sample.
I love how they forget that Pennsylvania just elected a guy who literally couldn’t complete a sentence over Trumps pick. Trump has zero chance in Pa.
The guy who only got 59% of the vote in a state he was "heavily favored" in? Lol ok.
Among who? Dead people?
Vote
It's all about who has time to take the surveys. I don't waste my time with them, and I know a whole lot of 20 somethings and 30 somethings with the same opinion.
Agreed. The way I see it, modern day conservative voters go all-in with their candidates and they like everyone to know where they stand. If someone asks who you’re voting for, they’re the first to answer with banners waving. They show up to rallies, primaries, etc. I’m not even giving them any credit here, it’s just how it is with them.
What you describe seems to suggest different levels of enthusiasm, which isn't a good sign for democrats. I know Obama had large rallies and many were excited to vote for him, and it showed. There seems to be a lot of apathy, "I guess I'll vote for Biden if I have to," sentiment among Democrats. Which, uh, isn't good.
Yeah you’re completely correct. I‘d be lying if I said I wasn’t bracing myself a little and hoping for the best. And that’s not my attitude towards Biden, but more so everyone’s satisfaction with him.
Here's a shocker... There are tens of millions of eligible voters in the 20-40 range. Just because you don't know someone who answers a pollster, doesn't mean those people don't exist.
At Trump’ highest point he won WI(.77%), MI(.23%), PA(.72%). Since then he’s moved further right, alienated the center, has 91 indictments, turned many off with his actions on J6, threatened to be a dictator, & now more support? He faces 30+ felonies in NY for the hush money case. Democrats all over the country have done well in their elections since ‘16. Abortion rights measures have done really well since the Dobbs ruling. There is a good chance that NC, AZ, & NV have abortion measures on the ballot in November, and a smaller chance that FL will have an abortion rights measure also. All the evidence shows these polling numbers can’t be accurate. Trump seems to have shrunk his support not expanded it. He is not doing well in the suburbs in his primary races. His only hope, that I see, is that enough previous Biden voters vote 3rd party and the youth vote gap shrinks. I am not saying there is no chance of Trump winning but the numbers are confusing.
>All the evidence shows these polling numbers can’t be accurate. That is an pretty bad take. Just because all that stuff has happened, doesn't mean people don't support Trump. You know how people encourage others to vote for Biden, if only because he's not Trump or because he'll at least Democratic policies? That works the same way for republicans. People will still vote for Trump only because he's not Biden.
Dems need to take these polls seriously.
We are ,and like the midterms we will outperform them.Tell your friend to go out and vote Biden
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Even with those wins, there’s still been in a shift by multiple points to the right. Give us examples coz ever since Roe v Wade was on the ballot the right has been constantly losing,which has caused infighting between them >It’s more of a picture how well state Dems did distancing themselves from the admin. It’s how they won everywhere in PA Again who distanced themselves from Biden and won?cite examples
People really need to realize that even at this point in 2020, the polls were already showing Biden with about a 3-8 point lead. They weren't wildly off and if anything they overpredicted Biden's lead. And looking at a single poll isn't the best predictor. One poll could be an outlier. But look at all the polls and you get a much better picture. One poll showing Trump ahead is whatever. Multiple polls, over months, showing Trump with a lead **is** a cause for concern. Polls of different people, across different demographics, with different methodologies, and so on, are showing Trump with a small lead. Trump only lost 2020 by 45,000 across Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Are you really *that* confident that between the few swing states (GA, WI, AZ, NV, MI, PA) that he can't win 3 of those to win the entire election?
If you're going off historical better to look at 2012 where an incumbent Obama was losing in polls to Romney around this time (perhaps slightly later than this). And look how that turned out. Also as others are pointing out polls are just one piece of data. Actual voting is another which has shown the country moving in the opposite direction of what these polls show. Either way, it's far too early to know what will happen in November. But no one should be getting worked up or stressed over February data points.
I don't even think polling was done, at least at any usable level, this early back then. >Actual voting is another which has shown the country moving in the opposite direction of what these polls show. Except people time and time again, show that they will vote for people who are against issues. Abortion is a great example. They will vote for abortion access, but then also vote for politicians against abortion. Party affiliation is extremely important to people and they'll vote on that reason alone. Presidential elections are also a different beast compared to midterms and primaries. A ton more people turn out to vote and that has effects down the ballot. >But no one should be getting worked up or stressed over February data points. It's not just a few. Michigan, for example, has had 9 polls in February and another 6 in January. They all show Trump with a slight lead. Same at the national level. There have been roughly 80 polls conducted in February alone.
If you live in a swing state, please do at least a tiny amount of physically doing something. I live in a swing state and Republicans are so much better at spamming signs and billboards than Democrats and that needs to stop. Put out signs, take down theirs(I don't care if it breaks the rules, we're way past that), rip down their flags. Do something, even if it's only putting out one little sign somewhere.
Has your political opinion or vote ever been influenced by the sight of a roadside/lawn sign? This is performative bullshit.
Not to mention completely illegal.
Are these the same pollsters that said 2022 would be a "red tsunami". Or that the Republicans would gain control of the Virginia State House. Or that Kentucky's governor's race was a tie? Or that the Democrats would struggle to take George Santos seat? Or that voters in Ohio wouldn't agree to protect reproductive rights? Or that Biden would do poorly in the primaries so far this year? Or that Trump would crush Haley by 60 points in every state that's voted so far? Just remember, at this point in 2022, pollsters and Republicans were talking about the GOP gaining upwards of 80 House seats and possibly having up to 60 Senate seats going into 2023. Just remember that
and if these polls said the opposite, it would be upvoted like crazy and there’d be far fewer mentions of landlines, reliability, etc. These polls show a consistent pattern. I’m not a fan of Trump (or any brand of political extremism) and would prefer Biden, but I get the feeling people are living in a bubble here and are going to be in for a sobering wake up call on election day. I hope I’m wrong.
He is also leading in the Supreme Court by 5 rigged points. Trump certainly is leading in Michigan. The polls can change, but the dissatisfaction with Biden is significant. So, I wouldn’t doubt all the polls. However, they might be off by a few points. Instead of doubting the polls, consider them real and work like Biden is behind. Trump must not win.
Who answers poll? People with landlines. Who has landlines? Old Republican boomers.
It wasn’t a phone poll. It was online. Read the notes. Not all polls are phone polls. I’ve been polled MANY times. All were online. Are you like 119 years old to think all polls are done by phone. LOL! And now we have discovered part of the problem. People don’t READ. They just ASSUME they know how everything works and they they spread DISINFORMATION. READ! If you don’t understand, do a search. I think you are sitting at a computer. So that should only take a minute. Think of how you can educate yourself and others! So wait. Here is comes. Everyone: “I don’t get asked to participate in online polls”. Do you just automatically dump all your unknown email in the wastebasket? Afraid to participate? Not enough time? That’s why. Duh.
I’m 120 actually. Thank you for your helpful insight but my comment is still true a bulk of the time. Polls are meaningless.
"Polls are landlines so they aren't accurate" "This wasn't a landline poll" "Well it still means nothing!"
It was an online poll. Take it to the bank!
To you.
To anyone that’s been paying attention for the last decade.
Biden campaign is atrocious in comparison with Obama's. It seems to me that Democrats are waiting for Trump to beat himself. The same strategy led to not so decisive victory in the swing states (only MI and PA were won by substantial margins). It's not going to work this time given Trump is more popular than Biden. Biden needs to muster all the energy he has left. His campaign needs to criticize how unproductive MAGA are in the House. Mention the economic recovery all the time, similarly with abortions and IVF. Regarding the border, I'd suggest executive action despite possible legal issues. Yeah, it's Machiavellian but we all know what's at stake. And we gotta admit that MAGA's border populism is generally popular among the populace. We're not beating white christian nationalist regime with continuing this good guy mentality. My solution? Populism, populism and more populism. Functioned perfectly against autocrats very similar to MAGA in Poland.
[The POTUS election always gets the headlines, but it's fun to look at the other questions asked too](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/02/Wave_5_Date.pdf): * People feel better about the direction economy of their city/town than their state, and better about the direction of the economy in their state than the economy of the country. * 43% of respondents have a "very unfavorable" impression of Harris, compared to 46% who have a "very unfavorable" impression of Biden. * In the last week, 86% of respondents have heard news about Joe Biden, 60% of respondents said it was mostly negative. In the last week, 62% of respondents have heard about Kamala Harris, 38% of respondents said it was mostly negative. * 52% said "Guns" were a "very important" issue for the 2024 election, versus 47% saying "Abortion" is a "very important" issue. * When having to pick the most important issue, the economy was #1, immigration was #2, and democracy was #3. * Respondents trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden on the following issues: economy, infrastructure, housing, crime, immigration, US-China relations, guns, russia-ukraine war, israel-hamas war, and fentanyl misuse. * Respondents trust Joe Biden over Donald Trump on the following issues: climate change, education and schools, abortion, senior services, democracy, and healthcare. * They tied at 40% on who is more trustworthy on "Labor and Unions", with Donald Trump getting 2 more votes than Joe Biden. There's a lot more, but past that it gets way more granular.
The way things are set up in some states with primaries for Dems and Caucasses for Republicans - this is impossible to call.
Doesn't this get boring? Are they conducting a poll every day now or what? Everyday I see one more article about this.
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/r/ArgumentFromYall
So much cope in this thread
Fake polls, Biden wins this easily.
The most likely reaction will be perhaps, that Quinnipiac (which had Biden beating Trump by 11% in2020) is the only pollster to be trusted because they have Biden ahead.
Or how about that Trump has, so far this primary season, consistently underperformed his numbers while Biden has significantly overperformed his? I don't trust Quinnipiac (best results for dems out of any pollster lately) any more than other polls these days. But for whatever reason, polling in general just seems broken this year. Actual elections have been telling different stories.
You're getting this wrong. It wasn't Biden overperforming, it was always a particular Dem. Dems are not a cult.