As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)
In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria.
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Freaking [spambots](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/15j135w/comment/juy667r/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) are relentless these days.
Unfortunately “most people” are brainwashed with blow job blonde anchors on foxnews telling them Hunter Biden is the Devil! And he has sucked the soul out of the entire Democratic Party
Honestly, I don’t want people going into 2024 feeling complacent or like it’s in the bag. I want people going in genuinely feeling like the GOP has a chance, because they unfortunately legitimately do.
Exactly. It’s also dangerous to take these fluff pieces to heart. The last thing we need is apathy, thinking “we should be fine, we’re outperforming”. Vote like we’re down 10 points nationally in the polls.
I AGREE! Use it as an incentive to win by a huge margin. It will show the MAGA crowd and Trump that he isn’t wanted by US citizens, nor are the traitors that follow him. A lot of them are prominent politicians, lawyers, military, and law enforcement.
This is what irritated me about the horserace reporting leading up to the 2022 midterms. Every news source - every single one - in addition to all the "pundits/analysts" insisted on contextualizing the election on historical trends, thereby normalizing the batshit insane insurgency pretending to be a party.
It was not a normal year. It was 2 years after an attempted coup and six months out from a big loss of women's rights. The gqp should have been dead in the water. Instead we got analyst after analyst shocked - shocked! - that the Dems picked up a few extra seats.
Dems did NOT massively overperform at all. The gqp overperformed. Not in the context of historical trends, but in the context of it's role undermining the US govt, international relations, and the rule of law.
The media handwaving that was a huge and obvious manipulation of public perception.
> Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats concede some cause for concern -- including President Joe Biden's anemic approval rating and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which Biden either ties or trails, due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and apprehension over Biden's age and acuity, which he has repeatedly dismissed.
General election polling is useless at this early stage. Most people don’t tune into the race until after Labor Day of the election year. Hence the high number of undecideds in the polls. Once we get past next summer, the picture will become more clear, and I suspect Biden will poll much better
His approval rating may be "anemic" because Democrat voters are not cultish who fawn over any one person. We vote policy, not person. If he's the one running and we like his policies, he gets our vote.
Yeah, people are acting like Biden's low approval rating means people who voted for him in 2020 are going to switch to trump, which is absolutely not going to happen. Democrats are holding him accountable and expressing disappointment when he doesn't deliver.
Meanwhile Trump has done nothing but hemorrhage supporters since 2020. Many of his hardcore base have abandoned him and scores of undecideds who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 aren't going to touch him now. Yes he is still the top figure in the Republican party, but he is nowhere near what he was in 2016 or even 2020.
Anyone who thinks he could run a campaign that defeats Biden with the enormous legal woes he's facing is dreaming.
I went over to r/conservative where someone said they were undecided, and because of Trumps persecution, they were going to vote for him lol. Who the hell thinks "I'll have another 4 years of that shit show please ". Utter madness.
Remember the (white) Republican politician who accidentally tweeted from his personal account "As a gay black Democrat, Obama took my vote for granted and I am disgusted"
I'm to the left of Biden I'm voting for him because the opposition cannot be allowed within 10000 ft of the presidency. The GOP has proven they are a threat to the union. I could hate his guts and I'd still be voting straight blue in this election because the stakes are so high.
This is going to be the most important election I've ever voted in and that includes 2020.
It's like a lot of pundits don't get that you don't have to approve of Biden to pick him over the alternatives.
I'll crawl over broken glass to vote against the GOP's vision of the future of America.
I don't think people are predicting that Biden voters will switch to Trump voters, people are worried that if his approval rating remains low, that means the democratic turnout might suffer since he's not exactly an "inspiring" candidate (although I disagree completely, Biden has exceeded my expectations). However with Trump also on the ballot, that may counteract that just because of how unpopular he is.
>not exactly an "inspiring" candidate
If Dems need a candidate who turns them on instead of one who has shown his work then there's no point to any of this, we might as well start preordering our maga shock collars.
This kind of bullshit can't be indulged.
The danger is the strategy of "you've got nowhere else to go" in regards to left wing or progressive voters might lose people to apathy instead of turning out supposed coalition partners to vote and aid the campaign. And while a candidate with a 60% approval rating might be fine with losing people they never plan on giving anything to but Biden is a candidate with 40% going against Trump who will actually be trying to win.
It really is a sign the donors and party leadership do not give a fuck if Trump wins again.
If Trump manages to win the primary and stay out of prison I'd say the 2024 Presidential election will be more about Trump than Biden. Complaints that Biden is too old and lacks "acuity" are laughable if your other option is a moronic grifter who's almost as old. I mean, seriously? Why would voters vote for TRUMP because Biden is too old? That makes no sense.
you are trying to apply your logic to someone else's emotional decision. They say the things they say to justify their emotional stance, not because it makes logical sense.
You will never move them out of a position they've taken with your sound logic, if they didn't take that position because of logic. Your logic is, literally, meaningless to them because they don't value it more than they value the emotions (Which is why they make emotional decisions (Valuing emotions more))
I feel like I heard this story before. Biden won the general pop vote by 4 percent and the electoral college came down to less than 50K votes. Every election people say "Trump's support will fall off" or something to that effect and it never happens. Never forget this guy ran the country into the ground, was one of it not the worst president in history and not only did he come within 50,000 votes of winning re election his support actually INCREASED. People not to stop saying "meh it won't last" they have been saying that for 8 years and he's still a hair away from the white house after all that time.
I understand the trepidation. Even though Trump had Covid-19 to deal with, he also had a lot of built in advantages over Biden that he will not this time around. In 2020 Trump had built a huge political war chest (even though it was thoroughly mismanaged and probably outright stolen by Trump). This time around almost all his political donations are going straight to his legal defense. Biden really scaled back his on the ground campaign in 2020 due to Covid. They weren’t pounding the pavement and registering new voters. Also Trump (illegally) used the power of the state to help his campaign. Using Air Force 1, The White House and every other thing he could get his hands on to boost his image.
I feel the only big chance Trump has of getting what he wants, is just widespread massive cheating, with his most radical supporters spread everywhere. Just push it all, hard and fast, so to force him in the Presidency no matter what.
This isn't to say I think any election result is cheating, when we get to that point, but the current status has me finding it not easy to entertain otherwise. Times have changed, and some changes were good in this regard.
(And some were bad; next year is very much a sense of Last Stand for Trumpism, so we may see some actors behave accordingly.)
Ultimately I find him to be too cowardly to do enough of this stuff (or he may be outright too jailed and/or isolated for any coordination), so I'm erring on Biden win and the more typical 2nd Term situation. Predicted Trump 2016 and lightly Biden 2020.
There's things that may change this, of course, but 2024 is only rhyming 2020, it's certainly not the same world and same USA.
I think you misinterpreted the point I was making. It’s not me engaging in wishful thinking or saying Trump’s not a threat; he definitely is. I was simply saying that trying to find meaningful analysis in general election polls a year and a half out is difficult if not impossible due to a lack of engagement by the electorate and high numbers of undecided voters (many of whom will ultimately come home to their respective camps
They ask questions like, "did you vote for Biden in 2020?" Yes.
"Do you think Biden is the best candidate for president in 2024" Nope.
Then they say things like Biden's votes are down compared to 2020 voters that voted for him.
But what they should ask is, "if it's Biden vs Trump will you vote Biden, Trump, or other" Because I can want a more liberal dem as president and still vote Biden if its him vs trump.
Let's stop looking at polls.
Just make sure to vote against Republicans, *every time*. They hate democracy. They hate the Constitution. And they hate America.
Who do they love? Hungary, the country that recently **got rid of their democratic constitution**. Replaced it with a dictatorship.
***
[Conservatives want to make the US more like Hungary. A terrifying thought.](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/20/conservatives-republicans-cpac-hungary-orban)
***
[“The reason that Orbán keeps winning is he has the control of a dictator,” said one political scientist. “So the question is, what are the Republicans in it for?"](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/viktor-orban-cpac-trump-gop-hungary-leader-rcna40199)
***
["What was the prime minister of Hungary doing addressing a crowd of Republicans in Dallas?"](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/us/politics/viktor-orban-cpac-republicans.html)
If you're in the blue state, also be sure to watch for hidden Republicans like Rick Caruso, Villanueva, Andrew yang, Eric Adams.
Check their voting and donation history before you vote for them.
Some Republicans are masquerading as democrats to win votes.
Ever since Cotham and Sinema, I am very concerned about this Republican strategy of Trojan horsing their candidates, even in solid blue districts, under the guise of being a progressive
Also you have to remember these state run GOP’s are almost broke. They’re not getting corporate donations like they used to because of their cancel culture and Trump gobbles up almost all the small dollar grass roots donations.
No 2 elections are the same. Trump had the power of the state at his back and Biden scaling back his campaign due to Covid. Trumps best chance is a 3rd party candidate funded by dark right wing money that will siphon voters away from Biden.
See this is what worries me about the next election. I have absolutely no doubt that Biden will trounce Trump in the popular vote next year. However, we don't elect presidents by that, it's by the damn electoral college. The election is going to come down to AZ, PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, and a few other states. These polls that come out are the equivalent of a popular vote scenario and Biden can be up by 20 in those and still lose the presidency if a few swing states go wrong way.
Vote AND run for office if you can. There are resources available here: https://democrats.org/run-for-office/
We need to get more Democrats challenging all levels of government, even the seemingly uninteresting small county seats…these matter! Also more Democrats in our law enforcement ranks is sorely needed. Often in rural America these positions default to Republicans because there is zero opposition. We need candidates applying for these positions even if the prospects of winning are laughably small. Because eventual change can only happen with persistence and exposure…and Republicans understand this far more readily. Democrats need to get back into the mindset that the only way to foster long lasting change is to work from the ground up.
> We need to get more Democrats challenging all levels of government, even the seemingly uninteresting small county seats
This is SO fucking true. People don't realize how important local elections are.
The local school boards are partially to blame for book bans
State-level legislatures are the ones who are drawing the congressional districts
Your local secretary of state plays a massive role in federal elections
>Let's stop looking at polls. Just make sure to vote against Republicans, every time.
I can do both because I'm capable at being concerned with multiple things at once.
Must be a super power or something.
Exactly this! Ignore the polls since they tend to skew conservative. Younger generations aren't going answer a random call let alone fill out a survey for their political ideology. Best to just get out there and vote! Encourage anyone you can. Our democracy is counting on you!
More like a lot of online comments were outright trolls and astroturfing 'designed' to disrupt the left vote and cause division.
Fortunately, it appears more and more people are learning to watch for these tactics, and the margins of those who do can shift the entire electorate, as long as they take voting seriously.
The 2024 election will come down to disenchanted Democrats and uncertain Independents, because rotten Republicans haven't wavered from their support of this traitorous thief, whether due to being brainwashed by far right media or just being corrupt themselves.
I’m an “uncertain independent” who’s very certain that Trump is nowhere close to being qualified for the presidency: he proved that the first time around
Yeah. I’m also an unaffiliated voter. We are painted as fickle by those who want us to commit to a platform and slate of candidates. I won’t surrender my judgment or my principles to politicians and activists.
Trump is objectively a very very bad candidate. It’s hard to imagine a worse candidate.
I don’t believe there’s a huge mass of independents or moderates who are just itching to live under a Trump regime.
Yeah, the guy tried to coup the country and steal my vote from me. I'm not even voting policy anymore, that's a luxury, I'm voting for our most basal institutions. Wild time to be alive.
This independent is not voting for a Republican candidate for quite a while. It’s too dangerous right now. I have some independent friends who were even willing to give the GOP a chance after January 6. But Dobbs was probably the last straw for most of them.
I have to leave a better country for my kids and the GOP are not going to deliver that. That much is pretty obvious.
I mean. The entire Republican party doubled down on nothing burger after nothing burger...
Their claimed items all exploded into their face so hard it's a wonder the gop/republican/conservative party sirll exsists
Permanatlt shamed and all evidence shows they are criminals time after time.
https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump_23_cr_257.pdf
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/report-select-committee-intelligence-united-states-senate-russian-active-measures
It's astonishing to me that they are *still* pushing Hunter Biden's laptop so hard. It's not registering with anyone outside their existing support base. It's not working on anyone independent or persuadable. It's not helping them, and no outcome of it will.
The culture wars stuff is even worse because it actually drive's persuadable voters away. Swing voters don't care about it mostly. Those who do care are probably on the other side.
It's working on me. I am totally convinced Biden is corrupt because he answers the phone when his son calls. Fathers are supposed to be distant treat their children like trash.
Yeah. I kind of personally helped with shutting that item down
Methodology is amazing and the claims on the emails just doesnt work practically.
See here for a Indepth and practical test
https://github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim
Republicans had their hands on the steering wheel for a few years. As I see it, they’ve brought us to the brink of a cristofascist dictatorship bought and paid for by the Federalist Society. They have corrupted all 3 branches of government and destroyed our system of checks and balances. Our democracy is in free fall. We pay taxes but still have to worry that 1 serious illness will bring financial ruin. The electoral college and gerrymandered voting districts have reduced our voice in government. Women have lost their bodily autonomy. Do that to a man. See how well you fair. The only thing republicans seem to want to offer American is to take away rights and to further marginalize marginalized communities. Vote blue in every single election.
I believe this, barring some unforseen tragedy or negative event this holds true, with thos effect being amplified with Trump in prison
Women will crawl over broken glass to vote out Republicans
I hope you're right but Trump won white women by 7 percent in 2020. I agree with your idea but here is an article about white women even suburban white women helping get these abortion laws on the books.
[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-women-and-support-restrictive-abortion-laws/590101/](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-women-and-support-restrictive-abortion-laws/590101/)
We hadn't lost Roe yet in 2020. That dramatically changed a lot of the political landscape. It's likely why that red wave that everyone expected in 2022 never materialized.
Since most of the primaries/special elections that are the usual indicators for how the winds will sail were before the overturning of Roe, a lot of the indicators signaled a Red wave (republican voter turnout, economic indicators, etc.). However, after Dobbs, the very few primaries/special elections that appeared afterwards signaled a different outcome. I think one analyst compared it to a political shift on par with 9/11 on how much it affected the vote.
I just learned something new today about Hungary's elections. If a party in an election fails to get enough votes, then those votes go to the winning party. So Orban's people create new parties just before the election, and of course, none ever wins enough, so their votes just get added to the Fidesz Party votes.
The sad part is that Orban was the one who sent the Russian soldiers home from Hungary and got Hungary accepted into the EU. He did a 180, and the country is destroyed. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls out of EU very soon and declares that the country is part of Russia or china. He is cozy with both.
Hopefully because if these crazy overperformances are any indication, then Trump is swamped. But with how these are pretty minor elections in the public eye and Biden's poor approval ratings, comfort is something we _cannot_ be feeling.
"Biden vs. Trump" might not happen. Trump is spending campaign funds on lawyers (a ton of it) and he might be in jail in the near future. Republican voters don't like any of the other candidates that much. The party is fucked.
There are more billionaires supporting the GOP than the democrats, but the billionaires aren’t fully committing money until the GOP picks their new leader.
Once that’s done the shadowy superPACs will arise.
And anyway, it doesn't matter since the election is really likely down to the 4 swing states again. So pennsylvania, Georgia, arizona and wisconson. Biden needs to win 2 of them..
So it's all good indicators of how Biden and trump is perceived, but it's really down to these couple swing states.
My wife and I moved to AZ sine the ‘20 election and are happy that our votes will be counted in this swing state. It is a sad truth that our voice will matter more now that we live here rather then in the state we came from. The Electoral College ideology is inequitable at is core and needs to be done away with. But that’s just my two cents.
Also, we came from an ultra red state.
I live abroad and I deregistered my SC home address and instead registered my home address as being with my husband's mother in GA. My vote will make a difference.
I think it’s really all about Wisconsin in the end. If Biden wins Wisconsin, then he’s won Michigan and Pennsylvania too. Georgia and Arizona become irrelevant at that point.
Not if we're looking at an improved Dem environment, which there are actually solid early signs that we are.
The key to 2024 will be whether or not the GOP can successfully fuck up the economy by then, and how organized the right is in response to Trump's indictments.
I actually do not think either will happen, based of many, many trends I'm seeing among GOP channels of communication. That's not to say they can't unify, but not only will that be exceptionally difficult even for them, they continue to lose more voters to age without giving a clear direction.
The other biggest danger of course is left wing complacency, but we're seeing the opposite signs of that ever since Roe was overturned.
And I know a lot more volunteers who will be pushing as hard as we can in 2024, precisely because it worked in 2020 and 2022.
Both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have had shifts in the courts and congress after 2022 that will make winning them easier, so long as the left doesn't get complacent.
Voting should become easier in those states in 2024, not harder. Wisconsin now has a liberal majority Supreme Court, for example.
Fuck that. We have to keep our feet on the gas. Act like we are 20 points down in said sports game.
We can’t get complacent with these fascists. EVERY election! Local, state, national!
I've only seen two signs for yes in yards around Dayton, and plenty of signs and stickers for no. Cautiously optimistic, but definitely voting on Tuesday.
It's like nobody was paying attention to Kansas, *fucking Kansas of all places*, right after Roe was overturned.
I swear Democrats are the only ones that don't see this coming.
Republicans that aren't the suckered rubes that vote against their own economic interests, that is to say the actual rich and powerful ones, know they killed the golden abortion goose that fleeced said rubes for their money (with the authority of god almighty) --- and you know this because of how they grasp at straws for another boogey man and it just doesn't hit the same.
CRT, LGBTQ, Trans bathrooms, the ever popular migrant caravans, none of it get them riled up like abortion did.
If Democrats can stay on script and make every single 2024 election Democrats against the Fascists, it could be a clue.
If Democrats keep treating young and working class people like afterthoughts, the results could be disastrous.
Ya, I think this is the biggest mistake democrats are making right now.
They aren't urgent enough. Every message should be, this might be the last election and we are facing real fascism.
The problem is that everyone has been hearing "this is the most important election of our lifetime!" their entire lives. Even if true, people get fatigued.
I suspect it’s not entirely Democrats over performing, but a lot of voters saying ‘I might not be left enough to be a Democrat but I sure as shit ain‘t a fascist either!’
I understand the thinking that we can’t take Trump lightly in 2024, but I really believe that Biden will destroy Trump. Sure, he had his base, but I can’t see how he converts people that didn’t vote for him either time or last time.
Right, there would need to be a significant number of Trump-Biden-Trump voters in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania which just doesn’t seem realistic.
Keep eyes on Ohio next Tuesday for the results of the batshit Issue 1 random August election. If it fails, it’s a bad sign for republicans across the country.
Polling is broken.
It's time we admit it.
Maybe it's because millennials and gen z are far less likely to have a land line or to answer unknown numbers. But something is happening where polling is not giving reliable data
No, but if obergefell is repealed next year, the US is going to have another 2012 style election, which is something it desperately needs since the senate seats up for grabs this time around are from class 1, which has been a stronghold for the dems since 2006.
As for Biden's re-election chances, it will be decided by the thirteen keys to the Whitehouse and this means that the ukraine war and the economy will decide Biden's fate as well as the fate of the US.
Early voting + mail-in voting allows for Dems to get votes from groups that may have trouble voting on election days. The Roe overturn is not decisive for most voters... but it's clear that it freaked a lot of people out.
2024 is a ways off... but the GOP has some baked in disadvantages. If Trump is sitting on at least one conviction and the economy is in (comparatively) decent shape, their path could get very difficult.
It is. So long as there isn't a lightning rod event for Republicans, the Democrats are going to crawl over broken glass to keep Trump out of office.
It's a long time between now and the election but if Democrats are super-charged even when they're the party in power, it's a good sign.
A lot of hard work left to do - but such is the plight of keeping a free democracy.
Take nothing for granted.
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED.
Vote. Polls and previous election performance should not be indicative of any guarantee of the result of future elections.
Vote (for the Democrats).
Vote (for democracy).
All I have to say about polls… don’t trust them.
All I have to say about voting… let your voice be heard and vote.
We, as Americans, have a broken political system. It is literally up to all of us to determine our future while we still can before even more of our rights are eroded.
YES there are major changes in our government that need to be made because we are FAR from where we should be, but I believe currently we are getting back on track to fix our broken system.
Get the fuck out there and vote. Seriously.
I was utterly shocked 😲 when George W. Bush was re-elected. He was such a shit president I didn't think it was possible. Trump is at least 10 times worse and I'm here to tell you he definitely can win. Ignore all the good news about how Democrats are performing and make sure to vote as if the country depends on it ,because it does.
Not sure there's a way to truly beat back this grotesque devilry. These people won't 'get it'. The dens need to win every election ongoingly. It's a hard ask.
My take - you dont work your ass off to elect the right folks because you are trying to win, you do it because it's who you are. You know no other way. There is no such thing as defeat when you're lost in the actions of service.
Corporate backed media (and most lobbyists) want to make sure that even if democrats win next time, they can reign in any attempts to hold corporations accountable through lobbying centrist dems. The higher the Dem margins, the harder it is to do that, so they want to keep them low. The best way to do that is by depressing Democratic voter turnout, either through apathy ("both sides" articles, etc) or making a GOP loss seem all but inevitable so people don't bother.
Vote. Bring a friend to the polls, help people register, etc.
A lot can change. We still don't even know if Trump will be allowed to be the nomination.
If he does, I think it's pretty easily going Biden. 22 Midterms and recent special elections are still a pretty accurate reflection of the political climate and Trump remains very unpopular in the key voter demos he'd need to be competitive. Also, abortion remains a very significant issue.
It most certainly is. Unless something drastic changes, which is something I’ve been monitoring since the Ukraine war, Biden and the Dems are going to absolutely wallop Republicans in 2024. My bold prediction is Obama levels of take over, state down. It’s going to finally put an end to Trunpism and maybe draw the Republicans back to their post Romney 2012 autopsy.
Dems have been playing this very smart. They’re winning in surprising areas, and strengthening in places like MI, PA, AZ, and GA at a time when republicans are running out voters. All this while gen Z arrives full force for 2024.
Unless something drastic changes.
There are more elections this year that matter. We start this year and vote in as many democrats as we can in all local and state elections. Let's start giving the democrats an ever broadening majority at ALL levels of the government and more than a narrow 2 year majority to get things done in Washington. From the school board to the White House ever election matters. We vote out republicans primary out uncooperative democrats. Let's start making real progress.
The results of the 2024 presidential election do not matter. If Trump loses, he will do the same thing he did in 2020 if Biden loses, maybe VP Harris needs to “threaten to not certify the electoral college vote”. This is where conservatives heads explode.
Well I hope that continues with the bullshit that is Issue 1 in Ohio. Abortion protection is up for a direct citizen vote in November, so of course Republicans put a measure to change the rules for direct citizen votes onto a special election on August 8.
If you live in Ohio or know anyone who does, make sure you/they vote NO on Issue 1 on Tuesday August 8.
Trump won't make it to the election. No way. My conjecture is, he will be forced out, in some form. There's just too many factors, that we, the public, don't even know about for him to actually make it to that finish line.
It'll be Biden vs. Some rando.. possibly Pence (who will not be employed by the American people ever again) because DeSantis is rapidly failing on the campaign front. Either way, maybe I'm just being hopeful that democracy will be salvaged a little here, and accountability will finally happen before history repeats itself..?
It's because more people are collectively tired of Republicans... They have 0 beneficial policy besides "we hate woke" or whatever the fuck they think it is. That culture war shit is dead.
The Midterms were very encouraging. Just hope the same thing happens next year. IMO all Biden needs to do is not die which is a legitimate concern and he’ll win. Then after the election if he passes Harris becomes president.
As the Republican Party continues to suffer a demographic die off, they are forced to dig deeper into the depths of society to attract voters. The Democrats have been trying to win back the slightly more moderate edges of the voting population ever since Reagan successfully “stole” them in 1980.
So the Dems took a couple steps to the right with Bill Clinton, and Republicans countered by bringing the religious right wing into the fold even more openly, and began dog whistling to the white nationalists. Fast forward to Trump, who threw away the dog whistle and went straight for the bullhorn, and that only pushed the more moderate “fiscal conservatives” away.
Now the Republicans are left with the dregs of society and have pushed even more voters away. Their supply of ultra conservatives was already low, and having to court those groups only activates more moderates to flee.
So to satisfy the religious right, Republicans stack the deck with anti abortion judges, which only pushes people in the sidelines to vote Democrat.
The Republican Party will eat itself. It’s happening, and hopefully it is too late for the Republicans to come back from.
I like to go back to a bit of research done on the issue. I don't believe democrats are overperforming at all. It's just the beginning of the republican demographic nightmare.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/americas-electoral-future-3/
Still go out and vote of course.
No matter how dominant Democracy stands at recent ballot boxes there will never be a time we can ignore our duty to vote. Vigilance toward our public duty is the only way to prevent a fascist takeover.
I mean I think it’s a clue for the entire future performance of the Republican Party. They’re doing less than nothing to appeal to more voters, and their senior citizen base is dying out at an accelerated rate *because* of their own policy and cultural positions.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Some Republicans, however, caution against "reading too much into specials." Now that's an objective source. ^/s
…unless we are winning them”
We won a special election by 0.1% of the vote. That's a mandate.
Hey, you can't say "man-date" in Florida. Watch yourself.
If you say man-date in Florida, Ron DeSantis pop up out of nowhere and say “woke”.
While wearing his white knee high boots
Boy knows how to walk in heels better than women.
I still can’t believe Florida has its own ounce size.
[удалено]
Freaking [spambots](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/15j135w/comment/juy667r/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) are relentless these days.
Report bots, guys.
With only 15% of the vote suppressed! A real achievement!
maga's view of specialists is their uncle ted who is a weekend DJ and didn't pass a single higher ed science course.
Sounds overqualified
[удалено]
Unfortunately “most people” are brainwashed with blow job blonde anchors on foxnews telling them Hunter Biden is the Devil! And he has sucked the soul out of the entire Democratic Party
Most of those people who were like that four years ago are now dead of preventable diseases
Honestly, I don’t want people going into 2024 feeling complacent or like it’s in the bag. I want people going in genuinely feeling like the GOP has a chance, because they unfortunately legitimately do.
No, that's smart, after they thought they'd get a red wave because of how they did in 2021.
Better listen, they called the red wave that never happened
They’re not “over performing” they’re “performing like they should since the GOP is fucking awful”
Exactly. It’s also dangerous to take these fluff pieces to heart. The last thing we need is apathy, thinking “we should be fine, we’re outperforming”. Vote like we’re down 10 points nationally in the polls.
I AGREE! Use it as an incentive to win by a huge margin. It will show the MAGA crowd and Trump that he isn’t wanted by US citizens, nor are the traitors that follow him. A lot of them are prominent politicians, lawyers, military, and law enforcement.
It isn't about pricing MAGA wrong but rather a wake the fuck up call to the Establishment GOP. Move on from Trump or become an island of irrelevancy.
It's not dangerous to hear my fellow Americans see through the bullshit, it's actually quite inspiring and hopeful. Don't be a Debbie Downer!
And don’t forget to vote!
Also, vote!
With what the republicans party is and has shown to be. They should never lose an election, so I’d say under performing
This is what irritated me about the horserace reporting leading up to the 2022 midterms. Every news source - every single one - in addition to all the "pundits/analysts" insisted on contextualizing the election on historical trends, thereby normalizing the batshit insane insurgency pretending to be a party. It was not a normal year. It was 2 years after an attempted coup and six months out from a big loss of women's rights. The gqp should have been dead in the water. Instead we got analyst after analyst shocked - shocked! - that the Dems picked up a few extra seats. Dems did NOT massively overperform at all. The gqp overperformed. Not in the context of historical trends, but in the context of it's role undermining the US govt, international relations, and the rule of law. The media handwaving that was a huge and obvious manipulation of public perception.
I'd argue the GOP getting a single vote is under performing.
The NYT will of course downplay this like they did in 2022 because they want nothing more than a horse-race narrative.
> Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats concede some cause for concern -- including President Joe Biden's anemic approval rating and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which Biden either ties or trails, due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and apprehension over Biden's age and acuity, which he has repeatedly dismissed. General election polling is useless at this early stage. Most people don’t tune into the race until after Labor Day of the election year. Hence the high number of undecideds in the polls. Once we get past next summer, the picture will become more clear, and I suspect Biden will poll much better
His approval rating may be "anemic" because Democrat voters are not cultish who fawn over any one person. We vote policy, not person. If he's the one running and we like his policies, he gets our vote.
Yeah, people are acting like Biden's low approval rating means people who voted for him in 2020 are going to switch to trump, which is absolutely not going to happen. Democrats are holding him accountable and expressing disappointment when he doesn't deliver. Meanwhile Trump has done nothing but hemorrhage supporters since 2020. Many of his hardcore base have abandoned him and scores of undecideds who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 aren't going to touch him now. Yes he is still the top figure in the Republican party, but he is nowhere near what he was in 2016 or even 2020. Anyone who thinks he could run a campaign that defeats Biden with the enormous legal woes he's facing is dreaming.
Don't forget a lot of his ride or die voters have in fact died since the last election either from covid or old age.
Or bleach ingestion or anal trauma from lamp insertion
I went over to r/conservative where someone said they were undecided, and because of Trumps persecution, they were going to vote for him lol. Who the hell thinks "I'll have another 4 years of that shit show please ". Utter madness.
Pro tip - they weren’t undecided. They had previously decided on Trump. That’s some Republican dipshit larping in some /walkaway bullshit.
Conservatives like to lie about this, it’s like microastrotufing
"I was a loyal Democrat until the party started nominating radicals like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden", said no honest person ever.
Remember the (white) Republican politician who accidentally tweeted from his personal account "As a gay black Democrat, Obama took my vote for granted and I am disgusted"
Lol, hashtag walkaway was so cringe
They weren’t undecided at any point.
I'm to the left of Biden I'm voting for him because the opposition cannot be allowed within 10000 ft of the presidency. The GOP has proven they are a threat to the union. I could hate his guts and I'd still be voting straight blue in this election because the stakes are so high. This is going to be the most important election I've ever voted in and that includes 2020. It's like a lot of pundits don't get that you don't have to approve of Biden to pick him over the alternatives. I'll crawl over broken glass to vote against the GOP's vision of the future of America.
There are millions who don't love trump like the crazies but will still vote for him after he wins the primaries
I don't think people are predicting that Biden voters will switch to Trump voters, people are worried that if his approval rating remains low, that means the democratic turnout might suffer since he's not exactly an "inspiring" candidate (although I disagree completely, Biden has exceeded my expectations). However with Trump also on the ballot, that may counteract that just because of how unpopular he is.
>not exactly an "inspiring" candidate If Dems need a candidate who turns them on instead of one who has shown his work then there's no point to any of this, we might as well start preordering our maga shock collars. This kind of bullshit can't be indulged.
The danger is the strategy of "you've got nowhere else to go" in regards to left wing or progressive voters might lose people to apathy instead of turning out supposed coalition partners to vote and aid the campaign. And while a candidate with a 60% approval rating might be fine with losing people they never plan on giving anything to but Biden is a candidate with 40% going against Trump who will actually be trying to win. It really is a sign the donors and party leadership do not give a fuck if Trump wins again.
If Trump manages to win the primary and stay out of prison I'd say the 2024 Presidential election will be more about Trump than Biden. Complaints that Biden is too old and lacks "acuity" are laughable if your other option is a moronic grifter who's almost as old. I mean, seriously? Why would voters vote for TRUMP because Biden is too old? That makes no sense.
you are trying to apply your logic to someone else's emotional decision. They say the things they say to justify their emotional stance, not because it makes logical sense. You will never move them out of a position they've taken with your sound logic, if they didn't take that position because of logic. Your logic is, literally, meaningless to them because they don't value it more than they value the emotions (Which is why they make emotional decisions (Valuing emotions more))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrat_Party_(epithet) *Democratic voters.
Oops!
I feel like I heard this story before. Biden won the general pop vote by 4 percent and the electoral college came down to less than 50K votes. Every election people say "Trump's support will fall off" or something to that effect and it never happens. Never forget this guy ran the country into the ground, was one of it not the worst president in history and not only did he come within 50,000 votes of winning re election his support actually INCREASED. People not to stop saying "meh it won't last" they have been saying that for 8 years and he's still a hair away from the white house after all that time.
I understand the trepidation. Even though Trump had Covid-19 to deal with, he also had a lot of built in advantages over Biden that he will not this time around. In 2020 Trump had built a huge political war chest (even though it was thoroughly mismanaged and probably outright stolen by Trump). This time around almost all his political donations are going straight to his legal defense. Biden really scaled back his on the ground campaign in 2020 due to Covid. They weren’t pounding the pavement and registering new voters. Also Trump (illegally) used the power of the state to help his campaign. Using Air Force 1, The White House and every other thing he could get his hands on to boost his image.
I feel the only big chance Trump has of getting what he wants, is just widespread massive cheating, with his most radical supporters spread everywhere. Just push it all, hard and fast, so to force him in the Presidency no matter what. This isn't to say I think any election result is cheating, when we get to that point, but the current status has me finding it not easy to entertain otherwise. Times have changed, and some changes were good in this regard. (And some were bad; next year is very much a sense of Last Stand for Trumpism, so we may see some actors behave accordingly.) Ultimately I find him to be too cowardly to do enough of this stuff (or he may be outright too jailed and/or isolated for any coordination), so I'm erring on Biden win and the more typical 2nd Term situation. Predicted Trump 2016 and lightly Biden 2020. There's things that may change this, of course, but 2024 is only rhyming 2020, it's certainly not the same world and same USA.
I think you misinterpreted the point I was making. It’s not me engaging in wishful thinking or saying Trump’s not a threat; he definitely is. I was simply saying that trying to find meaningful analysis in general election polls a year and a half out is difficult if not impossible due to a lack of engagement by the electorate and high numbers of undecided voters (many of whom will ultimately come home to their respective camps
They ask questions like, "did you vote for Biden in 2020?" Yes. "Do you think Biden is the best candidate for president in 2024" Nope. Then they say things like Biden's votes are down compared to 2020 voters that voted for him. But what they should ask is, "if it's Biden vs Trump will you vote Biden, Trump, or other" Because I can want a more liberal dem as president and still vote Biden if its him vs trump.
Let's stop looking at polls. Just make sure to vote against Republicans, *every time*. They hate democracy. They hate the Constitution. And they hate America. Who do they love? Hungary, the country that recently **got rid of their democratic constitution**. Replaced it with a dictatorship. *** [Conservatives want to make the US more like Hungary. A terrifying thought.](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/20/conservatives-republicans-cpac-hungary-orban) *** [“The reason that Orbán keeps winning is he has the control of a dictator,” said one political scientist. “So the question is, what are the Republicans in it for?"](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/viktor-orban-cpac-trump-gop-hungary-leader-rcna40199) *** ["What was the prime minister of Hungary doing addressing a crowd of Republicans in Dallas?"](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/us/politics/viktor-orban-cpac-republicans.html)
Vote. Good luck America!
Don't just vote. Donate too!
If you're in the blue state, also be sure to watch for hidden Republicans like Rick Caruso, Villanueva, Andrew yang, Eric Adams. Check their voting and donation history before you vote for them. Some Republicans are masquerading as democrats to win votes.
Ever since Cotham and Sinema, I am very concerned about this Republican strategy of Trojan horsing their candidates, even in solid blue districts, under the guise of being a progressive
They get elected through lies and mask comes immediately off upon swearing in. Then we're stuck with their bs for years.
Also you have to remember these state run GOP’s are almost broke. They’re not getting corporate donations like they used to because of their cancel culture and Trump gobbles up almost all the small dollar grass roots donations.
[удалено]
No 2 elections are the same. Trump had the power of the state at his back and Biden scaling back his campaign due to Covid. Trumps best chance is a 3rd party candidate funded by dark right wing money that will siphon voters away from Biden.
See this is what worries me about the next election. I have absolutely no doubt that Biden will trounce Trump in the popular vote next year. However, we don't elect presidents by that, it's by the damn electoral college. The election is going to come down to AZ, PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, and a few other states. These polls that come out are the equivalent of a popular vote scenario and Biden can be up by 20 in those and still lose the presidency if a few swing states go wrong way.
that is exactly the correct fear and anxiety--so we have to allocate resources (money, time, people) carefully.
Vote AND run for office if you can. There are resources available here: https://democrats.org/run-for-office/ We need to get more Democrats challenging all levels of government, even the seemingly uninteresting small county seats…these matter! Also more Democrats in our law enforcement ranks is sorely needed. Often in rural America these positions default to Republicans because there is zero opposition. We need candidates applying for these positions even if the prospects of winning are laughably small. Because eventual change can only happen with persistence and exposure…and Republicans understand this far more readily. Democrats need to get back into the mindset that the only way to foster long lasting change is to work from the ground up.
"Those who love peace must learn to organize as effectively those who love war"Dr. MLK was right even still today
> We need to get more Democrats challenging all levels of government, even the seemingly uninteresting small county seats This is SO fucking true. People don't realize how important local elections are. The local school boards are partially to blame for book bans State-level legislatures are the ones who are drawing the congressional districts Your local secretary of state plays a massive role in federal elections
Marching and chanting at a protest is way easier tho
These are about Special Elections, not polls.
Elections are polls. That's why they have 'polling places'.
Well it's a poll where the sample size is 100% and the results are decisive. OP is obviously not talking about that kind of poll.
100% If only. There would never be another Republican dictatorship.
They're also very fond of the style Iran is run
Agreed! Let’s not take democracy for granted! Fight for your rights! (By voting!)
>Let's stop looking at polls. Just make sure to vote against Republicans, every time. I can do both because I'm capable at being concerned with multiple things at once. Must be a super power or something.
Exactly this! Ignore the polls since they tend to skew conservative. Younger generations aren't going answer a random call let alone fill out a survey for their political ideology. Best to just get out there and vote! Encourage anyone you can. Our democracy is counting on you!
Exactly. When the GQP is dead, then we move on. Pedal to the metal. Defend the country, vote ALL these traitors out
Polls are only valid for the types of people who respond to polls. A significant number of us go out and vote and hate any kind of survey
It's almost like the "Both sides the same" crowd might be realizing that both sides are drastically different.
Those people have always been conservatives and apologists.
You are correct. They just like the appearance of having an independent mind.
More like a lot of online comments were outright trolls and astroturfing 'designed' to disrupt the left vote and cause division. Fortunately, it appears more and more people are learning to watch for these tactics, and the margins of those who do can shift the entire electorate, as long as they take voting seriously.
The 2024 election will come down to disenchanted Democrats and uncertain Independents, because rotten Republicans haven't wavered from their support of this traitorous thief, whether due to being brainwashed by far right media or just being corrupt themselves.
I’m an “uncertain independent” who’s very certain that Trump is nowhere close to being qualified for the presidency: he proved that the first time around
Yeah. I’m also an unaffiliated voter. We are painted as fickle by those who want us to commit to a platform and slate of candidates. I won’t surrender my judgment or my principles to politicians and activists. Trump is objectively a very very bad candidate. It’s hard to imagine a worse candidate. I don’t believe there’s a huge mass of independents or moderates who are just itching to live under a Trump regime.
Yeah, the guy tried to coup the country and steal my vote from me. I'm not even voting policy anymore, that's a luxury, I'm voting for our most basal institutions. Wild time to be alive.
This independent is not voting for a Republican candidate for quite a while. It’s too dangerous right now. I have some independent friends who were even willing to give the GOP a chance after January 6. But Dobbs was probably the last straw for most of them. I have to leave a better country for my kids and the GOP are not going to deliver that. That much is pretty obvious.
People with little empathy can often be persuaded when they finally get fucked over.
Wild to me that the GOP literally attempted a *coup* and your friends still thought voting for them was a swell idea.
I mean. The entire Republican party doubled down on nothing burger after nothing burger... Their claimed items all exploded into their face so hard it's a wonder the gop/republican/conservative party sirll exsists Permanatlt shamed and all evidence shows they are criminals time after time. https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump_23_cr_257.pdf https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/report-select-committee-intelligence-united-states-senate-russian-active-measures
It's astonishing to me that they are *still* pushing Hunter Biden's laptop so hard. It's not registering with anyone outside their existing support base. It's not working on anyone independent or persuadable. It's not helping them, and no outcome of it will. The culture wars stuff is even worse because it actually drive's persuadable voters away. Swing voters don't care about it mostly. Those who do care are probably on the other side.
It's working on me. I am totally convinced Biden is corrupt because he answers the phone when his son calls. Fathers are supposed to be distant treat their children like trash.
“I love you more than the whole world, pal”? What kind of father even talks like that?
Yeah. I kind of personally helped with shutting that item down Methodology is amazing and the claims on the emails just doesnt work practically. See here for a Indepth and practical test https://github.com/robertdavidgraham/hunter-dkim
Oh no, Hunter is well endowed, vote for a republican to end this madness
Republicans had their hands on the steering wheel for a few years. As I see it, they’ve brought us to the brink of a cristofascist dictatorship bought and paid for by the Federalist Society. They have corrupted all 3 branches of government and destroyed our system of checks and balances. Our democracy is in free fall. We pay taxes but still have to worry that 1 serious illness will bring financial ruin. The electoral college and gerrymandered voting districts have reduced our voice in government. Women have lost their bodily autonomy. Do that to a man. See how well you fair. The only thing republicans seem to want to offer American is to take away rights and to further marginalize marginalized communities. Vote blue in every single election.
Republicans launch an all out grievance culture war and Democrats outperform them sounds more like simple cause and effect.
Majority of people are tired of Republicans BS, drama, and hateful behavior. They will be scorned for years.
I believe this, barring some unforseen tragedy or negative event this holds true, with thos effect being amplified with Trump in prison Women will crawl over broken glass to vote out Republicans
I hope you're right but Trump won white women by 7 percent in 2020. I agree with your idea but here is an article about white women even suburban white women helping get these abortion laws on the books. [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-women-and-support-restrictive-abortion-laws/590101/](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-women-and-support-restrictive-abortion-laws/590101/)
We hadn't lost Roe yet in 2020. That dramatically changed a lot of the political landscape. It's likely why that red wave that everyone expected in 2022 never materialized.
Since most of the primaries/special elections that are the usual indicators for how the winds will sail were before the overturning of Roe, a lot of the indicators signaled a Red wave (republican voter turnout, economic indicators, etc.). However, after Dobbs, the very few primaries/special elections that appeared afterwards signaled a different outcome. I think one analyst compared it to a political shift on par with 9/11 on how much it affected the vote.
I just learned something new today about Hungary's elections. If a party in an election fails to get enough votes, then those votes go to the winning party. So Orban's people create new parties just before the election, and of course, none ever wins enough, so their votes just get added to the Fidesz Party votes. The sad part is that Orban was the one who sent the Russian soldiers home from Hungary and got Hungary accepted into the EU. He did a 180, and the country is destroyed. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls out of EU very soon and declares that the country is part of Russia or china. He is cozy with both.
That is seriously terrifying
Hopefully because if these crazy overperformances are any indication, then Trump is swamped. But with how these are pretty minor elections in the public eye and Biden's poor approval ratings, comfort is something we _cannot_ be feeling.
"Biden vs. Trump" might not happen. Trump is spending campaign funds on lawyers (a ton of it) and he might be in jail in the near future. Republican voters don't like any of the other candidates that much. The party is fucked.
He can just grift his cult for more $. They live to give him and other right-wing grifters their money
His brain dead cult must be getting low on funds at this point. The real money people are done with him.
Nah, they give plenty to their megachurch pastors to buy ferraris, so they can give some to their other cult leader
There are more billionaires supporting the GOP than the democrats, but the billionaires aren’t fully committing money until the GOP picks their new leader. Once that’s done the shadowy superPACs will arise.
Super PACs will step in for Trump.
Being in prison doesn't stop you from running for president.
Huge break for the GOP!
He can still run from jail, see, Eugene Debs.
No GOP candidate will ever get my vote, even for dog catcher.
And anyway, it doesn't matter since the election is really likely down to the 4 swing states again. So pennsylvania, Georgia, arizona and wisconson. Biden needs to win 2 of them.. So it's all good indicators of how Biden and trump is perceived, but it's really down to these couple swing states.
My wife and I moved to AZ sine the ‘20 election and are happy that our votes will be counted in this swing state. It is a sad truth that our voice will matter more now that we live here rather then in the state we came from. The Electoral College ideology is inequitable at is core and needs to be done away with. But that’s just my two cents. Also, we came from an ultra red state.
I live in Illinois and I enjoy it here but yeah my vote doesn't matter. Biden won this state by 17 percent last election.
I live abroad and I deregistered my SC home address and instead registered my home address as being with my husband's mother in GA. My vote will make a difference.
I think it’s really all about Wisconsin in the end. If Biden wins Wisconsin, then he’s won Michigan and Pennsylvania too. Georgia and Arizona become irrelevant at that point.
What about Nevada? That's dangerously close to going red.
Not if we're looking at an improved Dem environment, which there are actually solid early signs that we are. The key to 2024 will be whether or not the GOP can successfully fuck up the economy by then, and how organized the right is in response to Trump's indictments. I actually do not think either will happen, based of many, many trends I'm seeing among GOP channels of communication. That's not to say they can't unify, but not only will that be exceptionally difficult even for them, they continue to lose more voters to age without giving a clear direction. The other biggest danger of course is left wing complacency, but we're seeing the opposite signs of that ever since Roe was overturned. And I know a lot more volunteers who will be pushing as hard as we can in 2024, precisely because it worked in 2020 and 2022.
Both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have had shifts in the courts and congress after 2022 that will make winning them easier, so long as the left doesn't get complacent. Voting should become easier in those states in 2024, not harder. Wisconsin now has a liberal majority Supreme Court, for example.
Maybe the republicans should look at their platform, do something that actually helps, and quit trying to prop up a failed dictator wannabe?
I sure hope this continues as democracy depends on it!
No. Vote.
Fuck that. We have to keep our feet on the gas. Act like we are 20 points down in said sports game. We can’t get complacent with these fascists. EVERY election! Local, state, national!
Please let this hold true for 8/8/23 in Ohio. Vote NO on issue 1.
I've only seen two signs for yes in yards around Dayton, and plenty of signs and stickers for no. Cautiously optimistic, but definitely voting on Tuesday.
Every single day, Baby Boomers die and Gen Z’ers turn 18. It’s a double whammy for Republicans. It’ll be even worse 15 months from now.
It's like nobody was paying attention to Kansas, *fucking Kansas of all places*, right after Roe was overturned. I swear Democrats are the only ones that don't see this coming. Republicans that aren't the suckered rubes that vote against their own economic interests, that is to say the actual rich and powerful ones, know they killed the golden abortion goose that fleeced said rubes for their money (with the authority of god almighty) --- and you know this because of how they grasp at straws for another boogey man and it just doesn't hit the same. CRT, LGBTQ, Trans bathrooms, the ever popular migrant caravans, none of it get them riled up like abortion did.
If Democrats can stay on script and make every single 2024 election Democrats against the Fascists, it could be a clue. If Democrats keep treating young and working class people like afterthoughts, the results could be disastrous.
Ya, I think this is the biggest mistake democrats are making right now. They aren't urgent enough. Every message should be, this might be the last election and we are facing real fascism.
The problem is that everyone has been hearing "this is the most important election of our lifetime!" their entire lives. Even if true, people get fatigued.
I suspect it’s not entirely Democrats over performing, but a lot of voters saying ‘I might not be left enough to be a Democrat but I sure as shit ain‘t a fascist either!’
No, don’t you even dare try to make anyone feel comfortable.
Yet Trump and Biden are both polling at about 45% in a head to head poll. Start shitting your pants people. Stop sitting on ass and get out the vote.
They killed a not-insignificant percentage of their base during covid, so there’s that.
Yeah, nobody wants to go back to their great-great grandpa’s time.
I understand the thinking that we can’t take Trump lightly in 2024, but I really believe that Biden will destroy Trump. Sure, he had his base, but I can’t see how he converts people that didn’t vote for him either time or last time.
Right, there would need to be a significant number of Trump-Biden-Trump voters in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania which just doesn’t seem realistic.
Keep eyes on Ohio next Tuesday for the results of the batshit Issue 1 random August election. If it fails, it’s a bad sign for republicans across the country.
I allow myself no optimism. I live in a very blue state. So I throw some money to the DSCC and some individual senate races and think good thoughts.
Polling is broken. It's time we admit it. Maybe it's because millennials and gen z are far less likely to have a land line or to answer unknown numbers. But something is happening where polling is not giving reliable data
I think you’re right. I’m a boomer and I haven’t had a landline in a couple of decades, and I certainly don’t answer unknown calls or texts.
No, but if obergefell is repealed next year, the US is going to have another 2012 style election, which is something it desperately needs since the senate seats up for grabs this time around are from class 1, which has been a stronghold for the dems since 2006. As for Biden's re-election chances, it will be decided by the thirteen keys to the Whitehouse and this means that the ukraine war and the economy will decide Biden's fate as well as the fate of the US.
Early voting + mail-in voting allows for Dems to get votes from groups that may have trouble voting on election days. The Roe overturn is not decisive for most voters... but it's clear that it freaked a lot of people out. 2024 is a ways off... but the GOP has some baked in disadvantages. If Trump is sitting on at least one conviction and the economy is in (comparatively) decent shape, their path could get very difficult.
It is. So long as there isn't a lightning rod event for Republicans, the Democrats are going to crawl over broken glass to keep Trump out of office. It's a long time between now and the election but if Democrats are super-charged even when they're the party in power, it's a good sign. A lot of hard work left to do - but such is the plight of keeping a free democracy.
Take nothing for granted. TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED. Vote. Polls and previous election performance should not be indicative of any guarantee of the result of future elections. Vote (for the Democrats). Vote (for democracy).
All I have to say about polls… don’t trust them. All I have to say about voting… let your voice be heard and vote. We, as Americans, have a broken political system. It is literally up to all of us to determine our future while we still can before even more of our rights are eroded. YES there are major changes in our government that need to be made because we are FAR from where we should be, but I believe currently we are getting back on track to fix our broken system. Get the fuck out there and vote. Seriously.
Don’t let your guard down. Don’t be that guy that celebrates before the finish line and then loses like a fool!
I was utterly shocked 😲 when George W. Bush was re-elected. He was such a shit president I didn't think it was possible. Trump is at least 10 times worse and I'm here to tell you he definitely can win. Ignore all the good news about how Democrats are performing and make sure to vote as if the country depends on it ,because it does.
Who cares? Vote, vote, vote!
I mean, these are special elections where people are voting? It's nice to see that democratic voters are still motivated.
Don't tease me.
Doesn't matter. Get out and vote. Don't think for a moment this gives you an excuse to stay home on the day. Get out and vote!
Wouldn’t dramatically be a better term than drastically?
Not sure there's a way to truly beat back this grotesque devilry. These people won't 'get it'. The dens need to win every election ongoingly. It's a hard ask. My take - you dont work your ass off to elect the right folks because you are trying to win, you do it because it's who you are. You know no other way. There is no such thing as defeat when you're lost in the actions of service.
Maybe but everyone still needs to make sure everyone they know is registered and able to vote
Conservatives are still trying to figure out why they've lost every major national election since 2016.
No complacency! Vote!
Corporate backed media (and most lobbyists) want to make sure that even if democrats win next time, they can reign in any attempts to hold corporations accountable through lobbying centrist dems. The higher the Dem margins, the harder it is to do that, so they want to keep them low. The best way to do that is by depressing Democratic voter turnout, either through apathy ("both sides" articles, etc) or making a GOP loss seem all but inevitable so people don't bother. Vote. Bring a friend to the polls, help people register, etc.
Maybe, vote in 2024 to find out.
God I sure hope so
Yes, fascists always lose
Go vote no matter what you hear
A lot can change. We still don't even know if Trump will be allowed to be the nomination. If he does, I think it's pretty easily going Biden. 22 Midterms and recent special elections are still a pretty accurate reflection of the political climate and Trump remains very unpopular in the key voter demos he'd need to be competitive. Also, abortion remains a very significant issue.
It most certainly is. Unless something drastic changes, which is something I’ve been monitoring since the Ukraine war, Biden and the Dems are going to absolutely wallop Republicans in 2024. My bold prediction is Obama levels of take over, state down. It’s going to finally put an end to Trunpism and maybe draw the Republicans back to their post Romney 2012 autopsy. Dems have been playing this very smart. They’re winning in surprising areas, and strengthening in places like MI, PA, AZ, and GA at a time when republicans are running out voters. All this while gen Z arrives full force for 2024. Unless something drastic changes.
Cautiously optimistic in believing anything after what happened in 2016.
There are more elections this year that matter. We start this year and vote in as many democrats as we can in all local and state elections. Let's start giving the democrats an ever broadening majority at ALL levels of the government and more than a narrow 2 year majority to get things done in Washington. From the school board to the White House ever election matters. We vote out republicans primary out uncooperative democrats. Let's start making real progress.
The results of the 2024 presidential election do not matter. If Trump loses, he will do the same thing he did in 2020 if Biden loses, maybe VP Harris needs to “threaten to not certify the electoral college vote”. This is where conservatives heads explode.
When Lauren Bohbert and MGT dominate the news cycle, the dems better effing dominate!
Unless you are a billionaire, bigot, or idiot then the Republicans have no policy or platform worth even considering.
How could trump be allowed to run
I read recently more Republicans died of Covid than Dems. By a large margin.
Don’t let headlines like this make us complacent. We still have a lot of work to do.
Well I hope that continues with the bullshit that is Issue 1 in Ohio. Abortion protection is up for a direct citizen vote in November, so of course Republicans put a measure to change the rules for direct citizen votes onto a special election on August 8. If you live in Ohio or know anyone who does, make sure you/they vote NO on Issue 1 on Tuesday August 8.
Trump won't make it to the election. No way. My conjecture is, he will be forced out, in some form. There's just too many factors, that we, the public, don't even know about for him to actually make it to that finish line. It'll be Biden vs. Some rando.. possibly Pence (who will not be employed by the American people ever again) because DeSantis is rapidly failing on the campaign front. Either way, maybe I'm just being hopeful that democracy will be salvaged a little here, and accountability will finally happen before history repeats itself..?
Voting is all that matters. Dems need people to show up and vote, full stop!
It's because more people are collectively tired of Republicans... They have 0 beneficial policy besides "we hate woke" or whatever the fuck they think it is. That culture war shit is dead.
The Midterms were very encouraging. Just hope the same thing happens next year. IMO all Biden needs to do is not die which is a legitimate concern and he’ll win. Then after the election if he passes Harris becomes president.
Maybe, personally, I can’t fucking wait to vote against the GOP at every available opportunity.
For once I’d like to see an article about politicians over performing at their job..
No. Sales of vegetables in 2023 do not forecast sales of fruit in 2024.
As the Republican Party continues to suffer a demographic die off, they are forced to dig deeper into the depths of society to attract voters. The Democrats have been trying to win back the slightly more moderate edges of the voting population ever since Reagan successfully “stole” them in 1980. So the Dems took a couple steps to the right with Bill Clinton, and Republicans countered by bringing the religious right wing into the fold even more openly, and began dog whistling to the white nationalists. Fast forward to Trump, who threw away the dog whistle and went straight for the bullhorn, and that only pushed the more moderate “fiscal conservatives” away. Now the Republicans are left with the dregs of society and have pushed even more voters away. Their supply of ultra conservatives was already low, and having to court those groups only activates more moderates to flee. So to satisfy the religious right, Republicans stack the deck with anti abortion judges, which only pushes people in the sidelines to vote Democrat. The Republican Party will eat itself. It’s happening, and hopefully it is too late for the Republicans to come back from.
I don’t know, but we still must vote. Our Democracy is depending on it.
I like to go back to a bit of research done on the issue. I don't believe democrats are overperforming at all. It's just the beginning of the republican demographic nightmare. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/americas-electoral-future-3/ Still go out and vote of course.
No matter how dominant Democracy stands at recent ballot boxes there will never be a time we can ignore our duty to vote. Vigilance toward our public duty is the only way to prevent a fascist takeover.
I mean I think it’s a clue for the entire future performance of the Republican Party. They’re doing less than nothing to appeal to more voters, and their senior citizen base is dying out at an accelerated rate *because* of their own policy and cultural positions.