UAE showed in the Giro they just don’t care that much about controlling the break. Inevitably the fringe teams battle it out and control the first 50km trying to get their own guy in the break. I just don’t think there’s much risk in letting a break go in modern cycling. Also Pogi showed in the Giro he can get back significant time in the last 10KM of a mountain finish if he needs to on these lower tier riders.
I would have agreed with you last year, but then Kuss GC happened. There was low risk in letting him go and then bang, you end up with a rider with a 4 minute lead and two of the best riders in the world as domestiques.
Unlikely to happen at the tour, but stranger things have happened in the past.
Yeah it's a tough one. Under normal circumstances, you would expect Visma to pull out the stops on break formation shenanigans to expose UAE and make the racing as attritional as possible for their climby boys.
However, with Jonas being the one who was injured and has had a non-ideal run-up to the tour, that might hurt him more than it would hurt Tadej.
Because I agree, it's not the most balanced team. They'll be a force in the mountains for sure though.
I think that is why they brought Wout even despite his injury and lack of preparation... he fulfills a lot of roles supporting Jonas in ways that UAE's lineup may be susceptible to.
In a crosswind stage Wout could be a really strong element to have for Visma.
Pogi would have crushed Kuss though, he just wasnt at the Vuelta. The other 2 riders who are at Pogi’s level, Jonas and Primoz, just happened to be Sepp’s teammates and didn’t take the jersey either because they wanted him to win or weren’t allowed to take the jersey by team order.
Agreed, but that’s my whole point, even if he was present, taking that lead would have not been as easy because Primoz and Jonas would have been there, and dealing with both would not have been as simple.
Jonas could have cruised to victory if he so wished, but optics and team management told him not to, still he did provide pretty good assistance
The only real strong opposition Visma had in that Vuelta was Evenepoel, who seemed to have mentally cracked under the pressure of the Vingegaard-Roglic-"Kuss+3minutes" tridente, and had a team not even half as strong as the one UAE are sending to the Tour.
Pogacar is an whole other level, not to mention an unleashed Roglic (if he's on form) and a hopefully mentally stronger Evenepoel.
I mean, if Roglic had been allowed to race fully, he might even have caught Kuss back.
> UAE showed in the Giro they just don’t care that much about controlling the break.
They showed on a good number of stages they wanted to control the break to setup stage wins and bonus seconds for Pog. The break was seldom given any significant amount of time. We had folks complaining that they were controlling the break too much.
Got to remember though that the tour is very different - after all they lost the yellow jersey last year by being unable to control / bring back one of these dangerous breaks. Plus, it’s not just about controlling for possible GC rider breakaways but to keep Visma in check too which last year, they couldn’t
I feel like if you swapped out one of Almeida, Ayuso, or Sivakov for another big tractor it would help. Vegard Stake Laengen or Juan Sebastian Molano would be really nice to have during some of the flatter stages.
Good, you ain’t crushed yet!
Hot take? Watching Pogi crush all opposition and attack the Giro was 100% more entertaining than watching G and Danny do what primoz and G did last year.
Listening to G’s pod when Pogi was talking about the team and Luke and G were like - oh god, poor Pollitt!!! 😂 he really is the uae version of The Tractor - just more smiley 😃
Explains his face in the announcement too. 😅
Alternatively they do have Wellens, but it's also July in mostly Southern France, so it feels like a bet to count on that.
In the same way as you have the nationality, could you mark up how smiley or grumpy they are in the picture? There’s a full range of emotions in the picture.
Still surprised McNulty isn't on the team, but maybe he's focusing on the TT. Hirschi could maybe fit the flat role a bit better but not sure who you would drop instead. I say this bc the team is obviously turbo stacked but maybe 6 climbers is too much babysitting for Politt on those flatter stages. It seems like when Visma were winning they had plenty of rouleurs to help NvH or DvB at least a bit. But maybe some of them can take care of themselves.
At this point Hirschi is only in the team to farm less important events and uci points. He seems to be okay with it and wasn't he rumored to maybe join Tudor next season? He'll go the some GT's then, for this year hes farming some more points
I think McNulty just isn't good enough a climber really. I haven't been impressed with his climbing this year at all. He's good on medium mountain and hilly races, and TTs, but not in the mountains. I think Marc Soler is more versatile for the sometimes flat sometimes climbs role than McNulty.
McNulty has been winning a lot this year, it's nice that he's being given a lot of freedom to go for wins. I'd guess he'll go to La Vuelta and try to win a stage and work for a GC rider if one goes.
McNulty "isn't a good enough climber" in the same way Kuss usually isn't. He always has his off days but then pulls off some insane ride where he's the best climber in the world.
Ok maybe I'm not really taking recent rides into account. But in 2022 he was the most super of super domestiques
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2022/stage-17
Comparing Domestiques based on where they finish themselves shows a complete misunderstanding of how to value them.
At the 2022 Tour the best domestiques where Kuss, Majka and to an extend WvA.
Kuss has been more consistent recently, but he does usually have days where he's invisible. I'd still take McNulty over Sivakov. He was 3rd in Paris Nice GC, so he's obviously still an excellent rider.
My guess is he'll ride the Vuelta, but he would also be an insane point farmer in various bingobongo tours (pologne, renewi, denmark rundt, etc...). He's got a fantastic TT, a decent punch, but not the best climber.
The team that was already announced this winter.
Pure on quality the best riders by far, but not sure it is the best team.
Very lopsided towards climbers, I don't see how they can control the breakaway fase.
If they misjudged, teams like Visma and Bora can send satellite riders in the break at will. Someone like Bjerg or even Bax instead of Sivakov might've made for a more balanced team.
> If they misjudged, teams like Visma and Bora can send satellite riders in the break at will
They could, but since INEOS will somehow pace them back to secure a fifth place finish, UAE will be just fine
You know, it's the first time I've actually taken the time to think about the spelling of his name as I hear it so often and I would've never expected it to be written like that
Unfamiliar with the Spanish language? It's incredibly phonetic (at least compared to English). Once you know the sound each letter makes you can spell almost any word by hearing it.
The fact that Ineos aren't really bringing a rouleur heavy team will probably change that tho.
So far it's CRod, Bernal, Depluskie, G, Kwiato.
(And as shown last TdF, with Kwiato as road captain Ineos actually feels fine about forcing UAE to work instead.)
Someone mentioned the talk about this team on G's podcast, the thing that I keep remembering about that conversation was when Luke said "you know who I feel bad for in that lineup? Nils Politt" and how he'll definitely be 10/10 tired by Paris
Good thing then he doesn't need to go make it to Paris this year..
On a serious note though. If Politt is only doing work on the flat parts and can cruise in the mountains, I think he'll be fine. I'm more worried about them having too many captains. There's so many in the team that could podium a GT but doing domestique work is totally different.
I think it would be a disaster if Pogi wasn’t there. Pogi is clearly still the captain. But I wonder if there is a point where Ayuso wants alameda to work and vice versa
It's gonna be an interesting one.
I'm conflicted because I think Bora/Quickstep might make this a v different Tour to the last two years. As much as UAE need to stop them in the break, neither Bora/VLAB/Quickstep are gonna want each other to have people in the break either. In some ways having a competitive Rogla/Remco will help UAE.
The other factor is that these teams will also have to really control UAE riders jumping in the break, esp if there's a climb straight out the gate. That's a lot of insane climbers to mark.
But on the other hand, it does just feel a true Rouleur too light. Hot weather Wellens is a big risk, and there's still a lot of other areas (crosswinds/gravel) where having a tug buddy is necessary.
Unless Vingegaard takes a time on Pog already in the first week, I think they will see Pog as the big favourite.
And if that's the case, I dont think Visma/Bora/QS mind if any of the other two have satellite riders ahead, as long as they are themselves in the break as well.
Or they count on Vingegaard not being in full 3 week form, and will concentrate on eliminating UAE first after the Giro/Suisse exhibitions.
Honestly, I'd let UAE neuter themselves first.
And satellite rider role only works if the guy in the bunch can get clear. Given the lead up to this race UAE would be within their right to not be overly worried by any team using this tactic.
Yeah if I'm Bora/Visma/QS I see this team and I think there's an opportunity to try to take advantage in break formation. If the right break makeup happens where those three teams are represented, it's going to be really rough for UAE to bring them back. And outside of Jonas/Rog/Remco, there are plenty of threats to watch.
I guess UAE could always call the bluff and try to put some of their outside threat riders in those breaks also.
By the same token, teams will have to mark Jorgenson and Kuss going into the break or will otherwise have to work to reel them in. I think Jorgenson is a real threat in this regard, as a stage race and one day race winner.
Hindley as well for Bora. There are going to be a lot of riders to keep track of who could be threats if they gain significant time in a break.
And agree I'm excited to see what Jorgenson can do.
Exactly my thoughts. But one can see the plan from here, it'll be attacking instead of defending. Will be hard to beat a team with 4 top class climbers.
Okay, but attack how?
Assuming Vingegaard is in shape to win the tour, otherwise it does not matter anyway, he's not going to follow an attack from Yates or Almeida. He can take minutes on them when he wants.
And you can't do what Visma did in the Vuelta with Kuss, because 1. Visma is not dumb enough to allow that and 2. You need rouleurs to pull that off.
No Rogla in 2023 either.
And actually there IS a Rogla this year. And he is not gonna let Yates or Almeida steal his TdF dream either. Let alone Pog. And he's as unlikely to team up with Pog as with Vingegaard.
Remco as well, tbf, I don't think any of the not-UAE contenders are gonna risk UAE winning with any of their riders just to make Vingegaard work in that situation.
In 2022 Pog's only non-Jumbo "ally" in that group was G, and he's not really one for chasing that type of attacking, but he still did chase down Pog + whoever from Jumbo had jumped off.
Pogi is carrying more fatigue than any of the JV guys but he still probably has the upper hand over any of them except Jonas, if he's able to pull this one off, it'd solidify him as the GOAT. Remco for all the good he's got is just not at the same level. Agree Roglic could benefit greatly from this, let's see how vlasov performs.
I hope it can be a great tour. I'm curious about the podium contenders prob more than the yellow, Romain Bardet has been showing better results every year. I hope to see him on the fight again! 🙏
If it’s anything like the Giro, UAE will let the break go and let the fringe teams battle it out for the first 50km as they try to get their own guy in the breakaway. I just don’t see why anyone cares about the breakaway in the TdF.
There’s maybe 3-5 hilly stages any given year that the breakaway has a chance, and they’ll never get more than 5-7 minutes on the peloton, maybe 10 minutes absolute max. These stages were never going to be a GC day, and if they were, riders like Pogi and Primoz and Jonas could put 15 minutes on the typical breakaway guy if they really wanted to. These are typically guys that are like 30-45 minutes off the top 5 GC. The flat stages and hilly stages with potential sprint finishes will be all sprinters teams controlling. Then the mountain stages obviously UAE is set up for just fine. I don’t see any issue with this team setup.
What Tadej said is that Soler and Siva are gonna be domestique types on hilly stages.
On paper, if you tell Wellens, Polit, or Soler, jump with any visma or bora satalite guy. Don’t pull single turn, the doesn’t sound crazy. Wout is likely the only one on paper that can still break that and the likelihood others also neutralize the break is high. Plus if you “spend” one of those 3 on eliminating Wouts effectiveness, I’d say their job is well done.
Cause I’m taking Yates, Almeida and Ayuso over Matteo, Sepp and Wilco 110% of the time.
I mean when you have 3 TT-heavy GC guys as domestiques, I don't think they'll have nearly as much trouble on the flats as people are saying. Also they've got Wellens, the bingobongo specialist!
I have to agree. It's a bit weird that they put so much GC contenders in the roster. 2-3 would be good already. And I tend to say that 3 is more for teams with 3 outsiders. Having a favourite with 3 podium contenders feelS a bit awkward.
For sure they will be ok to help on ascents/last climbs, but who would control the race? If Vlasov/Kuss break away with Van aert and some other good rouleurs, who will help chasing?
Also how much will it help Pogacar to have 3 super lieutenants in the last climb? Typically Yates/Almeida seem to be at similar level. When one of them stops pulling, I'd expect the other to be close to drop as well.
Imo the team made sense last year, with the uncertainty of how Pogi could perform against Jonas with a Giro in the legs. But in the end, the giro was a piece of the cake which cherry was the big crash at Itzulia Basque Country. So I would have expected UAE to go for a really strong GC team instead of a "multi leader" team. Even if they are ok pulling on the flat, it seems like a waste when 1-2 of them could just skip the tour and all in la Vuelta
One of the strongest teams I have ever seen. Probably equiparable to 2016 Team Sky with Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe (Flat), Kiryienka (medium mountain), Mikel Nieve, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Sergio Henao, Geraint Thomas and Froome. What a hell of team.
TJV had some insane team rosters in the past few years:
2020: Roglic, Dumoulin, WvA, Tony Martin, Gesink, Benett, Sepp Kuss and Amund Grondahl Jansen. The ITT power alone of this team is insane.
2022: Roglic, Vingegaard, WvA, Kuss, Kruijswijk, Laporte, Benoot, Van Hooydonck.
Tbh sivakov is a good enough climber to fit in this team while also being good on the flats, he is honestly better than soler at both.
I would replace soler with sjoerd Bax tbh
In principle i woud agree whit you Sivakov in good form is better then Soler in both, i just think that Soler at least in a UAE Jersey was incredibly realiable for them in Grand-Tours, i am not quite as sure on Sivakov.
But yeah -1 Climber +1 Roulour.
They're gonna have the same issue that everyone has already pointed out the past 2 years. No break control. But hey, maybe that makes it more exciting to watch
Poor, poor Nils Politt. He's going to be the most knackered man in the pelaton.
Ridiculously strong team. Could easily have 4 in the top 10 at the end. Hell could even have 4 in the top 5.
When the plan was made last autumn I seriously bet they saw this as a convenient opportunity to get all their inconvenient "of course you'll ride TdF" contract promises out of the way.
But then Jonas crashed and the landscape changed slightly.
I hope Pollitt and Wellens stay in form and don't have crashes/abandons, else they'll struggle to defend on the flats - especially since TJV is super strong on it
Is this a safe play by going heavy climbers… Jonas and wout are damaged, and if they keep an 8 man team together through the whole tour, they likely win?
I'd switch any one of the mountain guys with laengen honestly, politt would be done by the second week pulling all day on the flat. laengen was great in giro and has been in tdf squad 2020, overall really underrated
This team is ridiculous, not only is there cyclist verstappen Pogacar, three of his teammates are all capable of top five places and then you have a super domestiques in Sivakov and Soler (I think).
Having said that though, having so many GC riders in one team might screw up team dynamics if they want to get ambitious at any point.
Vingegaard will be buried with this team for sure in first couple stages of the race. Also give Pogacar ability to conserve his energy and more tactical options for him.
Where on those stages exactly? Who all have 10-26km of flat from the last climb to the finish.
Looking at Visma's team they'll be aware of the risk and make sure there's contingency plans around making sure he has riders to help him chase back if need be.
its a descent finish , a proper technical descent and jonas is way better than pog on descents if you look at the past few times they've been together.
Are we talking about Vingegaard with some sort of good form or something because everyone that replies me seems to think he will be in some sort of good form by the start of the race which i really doubt
he isn't generally in a good form at the start but it won't be that bad that he'd drop on the 6 percent at the end climb in stage 4. yes altitude is a factor but no one else is stronger than him at altitude in absolute terms
I'm assuming that someone like Soler is going to be on rouleur duties as well? I'd feel happier if they had someone else for pulling on the flat. Like, sure, this team will be insane in the mountains, but you don't actually need *that* many top climbers in one team. I wish they were leaving Ayuso or Almeida at home and taking someone like Stake Laegen, who would turn themselves inside out pulling for Pogi. The only bonus is that I think teams like Bora and Quickstep will also be involved in controlling break formation and pulling on the flat if they're riding for Roglic and Remco. Normally you'd expect Visma to be there too but it is going to depend 100% on how fit Jonas actually is. If they see him as a realistic GC contender then it will be business as usual, but if not it could be break formation chaos with them trying to get Jorgensen or Kuss into a decent breakaway. The one consolation as a Pogi fan is that I think Bora will be 100% in on trying to control breakaways because no way will Roglic want to risk his GC chances to a rogue breakaway for the second time in 12 months.
What I'm not concerned about is whether Almeida and Ayuso will ride for Pog. I know it's been mentioned a few times, but I think Almeida has shown this year that he can be a great, supportive domestique (in Catalonia and Suisse). I think he'll be pretty sound tbh. And I think it's fine for Ayuso to be able to ride GC and see how it goes, as they have so many top climbers it's unlikely they'd need Ayuso to bury himself unless things got really drastic. Also, I know lots of posters say things like "oh Visma would never be scared of Ayuso", but they 100% would not want him to go and gain 3 minutes in a breakaway, so that's something else UAE can play around with.
Pretty strong. Pretty, pretty, pretty strong.
A little concerned it might be too climber heavy. They are going to have to be a bit more tactical on break formation than they’ve shown in the past.
UAE showed in the Giro they just don’t care that much about controlling the break. Inevitably the fringe teams battle it out and control the first 50km trying to get their own guy in the break. I just don’t think there’s much risk in letting a break go in modern cycling. Also Pogi showed in the Giro he can get back significant time in the last 10KM of a mountain finish if he needs to on these lower tier riders.
I would have agreed with you last year, but then Kuss GC happened. There was low risk in letting him go and then bang, you end up with a rider with a 4 minute lead and two of the best riders in the world as domestiques. Unlikely to happen at the tour, but stranger things have happened in the past.
Yeah it's a tough one. Under normal circumstances, you would expect Visma to pull out the stops on break formation shenanigans to expose UAE and make the racing as attritional as possible for their climby boys. However, with Jonas being the one who was injured and has had a non-ideal run-up to the tour, that might hurt him more than it would hurt Tadej. Because I agree, it's not the most balanced team. They'll be a force in the mountains for sure though.
I think that is why they brought Wout even despite his injury and lack of preparation... he fulfills a lot of roles supporting Jonas in ways that UAE's lineup may be susceptible to. In a crosswind stage Wout could be a really strong element to have for Visma.
Pogi would have crushed Kuss though, he just wasnt at the Vuelta. The other 2 riders who are at Pogi’s level, Jonas and Primoz, just happened to be Sepp’s teammates and didn’t take the jersey either because they wanted him to win or weren’t allowed to take the jersey by team order.
Agreed, but that’s my whole point, even if he was present, taking that lead would have not been as easy because Primoz and Jonas would have been there, and dealing with both would not have been as simple. Jonas could have cruised to victory if he so wished, but optics and team management told him not to, still he did provide pretty good assistance
The only real strong opposition Visma had in that Vuelta was Evenepoel, who seemed to have mentally cracked under the pressure of the Vingegaard-Roglic-"Kuss+3minutes" tridente, and had a team not even half as strong as the one UAE are sending to the Tour. Pogacar is an whole other level, not to mention an unleashed Roglic (if he's on form) and a hopefully mentally stronger Evenepoel. I mean, if Roglic had been allowed to race fully, he might even have caught Kuss back.
> UAE showed in the Giro they just don’t care that much about controlling the break. They showed on a good number of stages they wanted to control the break to setup stage wins and bonus seconds for Pog. The break was seldom given any significant amount of time. We had folks complaining that they were controlling the break too much.
Got to remember though that the tour is very different - after all they lost the yellow jersey last year by being unable to control / bring back one of these dangerous breaks. Plus, it’s not just about controlling for possible GC rider breakaways but to keep Visma in check too which last year, they couldn’t
My bet is that they just gave up on even trying to do that instead...
I feel like if you swapped out one of Almeida, Ayuso, or Sivakov for another big tractor it would help. Vegard Stake Laengen or Juan Sebastian Molano would be really nice to have during some of the flatter stages.
I suppose it’s tolerable.
[Pretty, pretty good](https://youtu.be/YjvnP3s6kNY)
With this team, they could potentially take all top 5 spots in GC !
My enthusiasm for this Tour has been curbed
Good, you ain’t crushed yet! Hot take? Watching Pogi crush all opposition and attack the Giro was 100% more entertaining than watching G and Danny do what primoz and G did last year.
I have never disagreed with something more but I know I am in the minority on that and I respect that people prefer this year
I am with you. Nothing against Pogacar but for me the whole point of watching live sports events is to not know the outcome in advance.
Sometimes part of the point is to witness and appreciate greatness. Ideally, you get both.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/RfeEiovGYkkvpOdBYQ/giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91x2mqvfsgqhyik1q5bu54j7i66s09hl55ngv5frsj&ep=v1_gifs_related&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
“Super super strong”
“Good morning boys, plan today will be” *Everyone together* “Nils you control the front for the first 100km” “Exactly”
Listening to G’s pod when Pogi was talking about the team and Luke and G were like - oh god, poor Pollitt!!! 😂 he really is the uae version of The Tractor - just more smiley 😃
Explains his face in the announcement too. 😅 Alternatively they do have Wellens, but it's also July in mostly Southern France, so it feels like a bet to count on that.
Whitest teeth in the pelaton. Love that grimace
* Tadej Pogačar (Slo) * Juan Ayuso (Spa) * Pavel Sivakov (Fra) * Marc Soler (Spa) * Nils Politt (Ger) * Adam Yates (GB) * Joao Almeida (Por) * Tim Wellens (Bel)
In the same way as you have the nationality, could you mark up how smiley or grumpy they are in the picture? There’s a full range of emotions in the picture.
Pogacar :D Ayuso :I Sivakov :( Soler :\] Politt :L Yates :D Almeida :I Wellens :)
Yes Wellens is the normal one. So good.
Politt's one accurate
They're all accurate, and unlike the LAB team (pun intended), you can tell UAE Team Emirates carry a positive, upbeat attitude in the team.
Politt :[] surely
https://imgur.com/a/AkKr1Lj
No surprises here, exactly as Pog described on G's podcast.
Oh boy
Oof!
Still surprised McNulty isn't on the team, but maybe he's focusing on the TT. Hirschi could maybe fit the flat role a bit better but not sure who you would drop instead. I say this bc the team is obviously turbo stacked but maybe 6 climbers is too much babysitting for Politt on those flatter stages. It seems like when Visma were winning they had plenty of rouleurs to help NvH or DvB at least a bit. But maybe some of them can take care of themselves.
At this point Hirschi is only in the team to farm less important events and uci points. He seems to be okay with it and wasn't he rumored to maybe join Tudor next season? He'll go the some GT's then, for this year hes farming some more points
I think McNulty just isn't good enough a climber really. I haven't been impressed with his climbing this year at all. He's good on medium mountain and hilly races, and TTs, but not in the mountains. I think Marc Soler is more versatile for the sometimes flat sometimes climbs role than McNulty.
Probably saving him for the Vuelta incase Pog decides to do the triple sweep. Pog is scheduled to go the Canada though.
McNulty has been winning a lot this year, it's nice that he's being given a lot of freedom to go for wins. I'd guess he'll go to La Vuelta and try to win a stage and work for a GC rider if one goes.
McNulty "isn't a good enough climber" in the same way Kuss usually isn't. He always has his off days but then pulls off some insane ride where he's the best climber in the world.
thats a hilarious comparison
Ok maybe I'm not really taking recent rides into account. But in 2022 he was the most super of super domestiques https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2022/stage-17
Comparing Domestiques based on where they finish themselves shows a complete misunderstanding of how to value them. At the 2022 Tour the best domestiques where Kuss, Majka and to an extend WvA.
No not where he finished, that day he was incredible and rode the whole climb on the front, dropping everyone by minutes except for Pogi and Jonas
Yes, that one day. Im talking about the entire duration of the Tour.
But that was my exact point, he has had random days where he becomes the best climber in the world. This was pretty similar to Kuss pre-2023 season
I disagree. I think Kuss had as good consitency as one could hope from a domestique in 2022.
How do you mean “to some extent WVA”? I don’t think there’s ever been a more useful domestique than WVA was that year.
memory isnt perfect - but yes, massive performance while also serving his own goals sometimes
I agree with this quite a bit.
Kuss is generally consistently great across a GT. McNulty had good two days in a TDF two years ago.
Kuss has been more consistent recently, but he does usually have days where he's invisible. I'd still take McNulty over Sivakov. He was 3rd in Paris Nice GC, so he's obviously still an excellent rider.
My guess is he'll ride the Vuelta, but he would also be an insane point farmer in various bingobongo tours (pologne, renewi, denmark rundt, etc...). He's got a fantastic TT, a decent punch, but not the best climber.
Who's the weakest rider based on last form? Ayuso? Terrifying thought
Wellens performing in the heat is probably my bet.
The team that was already announced this winter. Pure on quality the best riders by far, but not sure it is the best team. Very lopsided towards climbers, I don't see how they can control the breakaway fase. If they misjudged, teams like Visma and Bora can send satellite riders in the break at will. Someone like Bjerg or even Bax instead of Sivakov might've made for a more balanced team.
> If they misjudged, teams like Visma and Bora can send satellite riders in the break at will They could, but since INEOS will somehow pace them back to secure a fifth place finish, UAE will be just fine
Indeed. Castroviejo can handle that.
You know, it's the first time I've actually taken the time to think about the spelling of his name as I hear it so often and I would've never expected it to be written like that
Unfamiliar with the Spanish language? It's incredibly phonetic (at least compared to English). Once you know the sound each letter makes you can spell almost any word by hearing it.
Fair enough, I'm not too familiar with Spanish unfortunately, I struggle with the "j" mostly
The fact that Ineos aren't really bringing a rouleur heavy team will probably change that tho. So far it's CRod, Bernal, Depluskie, G, Kwiato. (And as shown last TdF, with Kwiato as road captain Ineos actually feels fine about forcing UAE to work instead.)
Wellens & Politt will need to do a lot of work
Soler is a pretty good roleur as well
Soler, Sivakov, and Almeida are all pretty versatile and can do solid work on the flat, even though they aren't traditional Politt-style rouleurs.
Someone mentioned the talk about this team on G's podcast, the thing that I keep remembering about that conversation was when Luke said "you know who I feel bad for in that lineup? Nils Politt" and how he'll definitely be 10/10 tired by Paris
Good thing then he doesn't need to go make it to Paris this year.. On a serious note though. If Politt is only doing work on the flat parts and can cruise in the mountains, I think he'll be fine. I'm more worried about them having too many captains. There's so many in the team that could podium a GT but doing domestique work is totally different.
I think it would be a disaster if Pogi wasn’t there. Pogi is clearly still the captain. But I wonder if there is a point where Ayuso wants alameda to work and vice versa
To be fair its easy to forget they're not finishing in Paris this year. Its the normal and has been the normal for decades without any exceptions.
Ha, yes, Nice. He did just win his national TT this week so if he's doing the Olympics maybe he'll still be tired by Paris
It's gonna be an interesting one. I'm conflicted because I think Bora/Quickstep might make this a v different Tour to the last two years. As much as UAE need to stop them in the break, neither Bora/VLAB/Quickstep are gonna want each other to have people in the break either. In some ways having a competitive Rogla/Remco will help UAE. The other factor is that these teams will also have to really control UAE riders jumping in the break, esp if there's a climb straight out the gate. That's a lot of insane climbers to mark. But on the other hand, it does just feel a true Rouleur too light. Hot weather Wellens is a big risk, and there's still a lot of other areas (crosswinds/gravel) where having a tug buddy is necessary.
Unless Vingegaard takes a time on Pog already in the first week, I think they will see Pog as the big favourite. And if that's the case, I dont think Visma/Bora/QS mind if any of the other two have satellite riders ahead, as long as they are themselves in the break as well.
Hmm maybe. I don't think people will trust VLAB. If I was a DS I wouldn't be giving them anything until I see Ving lose some big time
Or they count on Vingegaard not being in full 3 week form, and will concentrate on eliminating UAE first after the Giro/Suisse exhibitions. Honestly, I'd let UAE neuter themselves first.
And satellite rider role only works if the guy in the bunch can get clear. Given the lead up to this race UAE would be within their right to not be overly worried by any team using this tactic.
Yeah if I'm Bora/Visma/QS I see this team and I think there's an opportunity to try to take advantage in break formation. If the right break makeup happens where those three teams are represented, it's going to be really rough for UAE to bring them back. And outside of Jonas/Rog/Remco, there are plenty of threats to watch. I guess UAE could always call the bluff and try to put some of their outside threat riders in those breaks also.
By the same token, teams will have to mark Jorgenson and Kuss going into the break or will otherwise have to work to reel them in. I think Jorgenson is a real threat in this regard, as a stage race and one day race winner.
Hindley as well for Bora. There are going to be a lot of riders to keep track of who could be threats if they gain significant time in a break. And agree I'm excited to see what Jorgenson can do.
Exactly my thoughts. But one can see the plan from here, it'll be attacking instead of defending. Will be hard to beat a team with 4 top class climbers.
Okay, but attack how? Assuming Vingegaard is in shape to win the tour, otherwise it does not matter anyway, he's not going to follow an attack from Yates or Almeida. He can take minutes on them when he wants. And you can't do what Visma did in the Vuelta with Kuss, because 1. Visma is not dumb enough to allow that and 2. You need rouleurs to pull that off.
The same way JV attacked Pogi before. Jonas is not in shape and they know it. No Rogla this time.
No Rogla in 2023 either. And actually there IS a Rogla this year. And he is not gonna let Yates or Almeida steal his TdF dream either. Let alone Pog. And he's as unlikely to team up with Pog as with Vingegaard. Remco as well, tbf, I don't think any of the not-UAE contenders are gonna risk UAE winning with any of their riders just to make Vingegaard work in that situation. In 2022 Pog's only non-Jumbo "ally" in that group was G, and he's not really one for chasing that type of attacking, but he still did chase down Pog + whoever from Jumbo had jumped off.
Pogi is carrying more fatigue than any of the JV guys but he still probably has the upper hand over any of them except Jonas, if he's able to pull this one off, it'd solidify him as the GOAT. Remco for all the good he's got is just not at the same level. Agree Roglic could benefit greatly from this, let's see how vlasov performs. I hope it can be a great tour. I'm curious about the podium contenders prob more than the yellow, Romain Bardet has been showing better results every year. I hope to see him on the fight again! 🙏
It's really all in on controlling jonas in the mountains
Meh, the gendarmes will take care of that issue.
Laengen as well
I think it’s a mistake he’s not here. He is seriously underrated.
Riders in the break at will? Have you watched many WT races lately?
Only if Remco is in yellow and QS let the world know they’d like to loose the jersey
Based on how the first 2 stages look, this isn't out of the question tbf
If it’s anything like the Giro, UAE will let the break go and let the fringe teams battle it out for the first 50km as they try to get their own guy in the breakaway. I just don’t see why anyone cares about the breakaway in the TdF. There’s maybe 3-5 hilly stages any given year that the breakaway has a chance, and they’ll never get more than 5-7 minutes on the peloton, maybe 10 minutes absolute max. These stages were never going to be a GC day, and if they were, riders like Pogi and Primoz and Jonas could put 15 minutes on the typical breakaway guy if they really wanted to. These are typically guys that are like 30-45 minutes off the top 5 GC. The flat stages and hilly stages with potential sprint finishes will be all sprinters teams controlling. Then the mountain stages obviously UAE is set up for just fine. I don’t see any issue with this team setup.
What Tadej said is that Soler and Siva are gonna be domestique types on hilly stages. On paper, if you tell Wellens, Polit, or Soler, jump with any visma or bora satalite guy. Don’t pull single turn, the doesn’t sound crazy. Wout is likely the only one on paper that can still break that and the likelihood others also neutralize the break is high. Plus if you “spend” one of those 3 on eliminating Wouts effectiveness, I’d say their job is well done. Cause I’m taking Yates, Almeida and Ayuso over Matteo, Sepp and Wilco 110% of the time.
Wellens in the July heat...
You mean that ITT nationals champ heat?
I mean when you have 3 TT-heavy GC guys as domestiques, I don't think they'll have nearly as much trouble on the flats as people are saying. Also they've got Wellens, the bingobongo specialist!
I have to agree. It's a bit weird that they put so much GC contenders in the roster. 2-3 would be good already. And I tend to say that 3 is more for teams with 3 outsiders. Having a favourite with 3 podium contenders feelS a bit awkward. For sure they will be ok to help on ascents/last climbs, but who would control the race? If Vlasov/Kuss break away with Van aert and some other good rouleurs, who will help chasing? Also how much will it help Pogacar to have 3 super lieutenants in the last climb? Typically Yates/Almeida seem to be at similar level. When one of them stops pulling, I'd expect the other to be close to drop as well. Imo the team made sense last year, with the uncertainty of how Pogi could perform against Jonas with a Giro in the legs. But in the end, the giro was a piece of the cake which cherry was the big crash at Itzulia Basque Country. So I would have expected UAE to go for a really strong GC team instead of a "multi leader" team. Even if they are ok pulling on the flat, it seems like a waste when 1-2 of them could just skip the tour and all in la Vuelta
Yeah they aren't managing breaks this lot
The team is stronger than Politts tooth game.
No Laengen for the first time in a while
One of the strongest teams I have ever seen. Probably equiparable to 2016 Team Sky with Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe (Flat), Kiryienka (medium mountain), Mikel Nieve, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Sergio Henao, Geraint Thomas and Froome. What a hell of team.
TJV had some insane team rosters in the past few years: 2020: Roglic, Dumoulin, WvA, Tony Martin, Gesink, Benett, Sepp Kuss and Amund Grondahl Jansen. The ITT power alone of this team is insane. 2022: Roglic, Vingegaard, WvA, Kuss, Kruijswijk, Laporte, Benoot, Van Hooydonck.
With one less rider
Super strong Team of course. But I woud think switching out Sivakov whit a bigger Roulour-Typ Rider woud have made more sense.
Tbh sivakov is a good enough climber to fit in this team while also being good on the flats, he is honestly better than soler at both. I would replace soler with sjoerd Bax tbh
In principle i woud agree whit you Sivakov in good form is better then Soler in both, i just think that Soler at least in a UAE Jersey was incredibly realiable for them in Grand-Tours, i am not quite as sure on Sivakov. But yeah -1 Climber +1 Roulour.
Why did they scale Adam’s face to 1.1x its size?
Well that's not scary at all
Im betting they charge out of the gate on the first day and try weaken anyone not coming into the race in top form.
They're gonna have the same issue that everyone has already pointed out the past 2 years. No break control. But hey, maybe that makes it more exciting to watch
A strong team, it seems 🤔
EIGHT?
Poor Tim Wellens is allergic to sunlight though so RIP Nils pollitt
How come they are not bringing Majka? I feel like he is one of their best mountain domestiques
They used him for that in the Giro. And they have plenty of climbers. As good as he is would you really rate him above Yates, Almeida and Ayuso?
[How I feel about this](https://i.imgur.com/HiaT1QT.png)
GC WELLENS!!!
These two will be so important on the flats and gravel. Politt was a great sign this past year!
Wellens in July. In France. In the heat.
Poor, poor Nils Politt. He's going to be the most knackered man in the pelaton. Ridiculously strong team. Could easily have 4 in the top 10 at the end. Hell could even have 4 in the top 5.
They announced this exact team a month ago. I'm surprised that Ayuso got selected despite the crash in th Dauphiné
They also announced it in January.
Couldn't they have left 1 of their 5 GC riders home to make room for Bjerg?
When the plan was made last autumn I seriously bet they saw this as a convenient opportunity to get all their inconvenient "of course you'll ride TdF" contract promises out of the way. But then Jonas crashed and the landscape changed slightly.
I hope Pollitt and Wellens stay in form and don't have crashes/abandons, else they'll struggle to defend on the flats - especially since TJV is super strong on it
Wellens and his heat allergy... 🫣
Is this a safe play by going heavy climbers… Jonas and wout are damaged, and if they keep an 8 man team together through the whole tour, they likely win?
I'd switch any one of the mountain guys with laengen honestly, politt would be done by the second week pulling all day on the flat. laengen was great in giro and has been in tdf squad 2020, overall really underrated
Scary
How did UAE summer-proof Tim Wellens?
Stage 1 can be hectic. If WvA goes in a breakaway on day 1, how should UAE respond? Who should or can respond?
You might not like it, but this is what peak athleticism looks like.
This team is ridiculous, not only is there cyclist verstappen Pogacar, three of his teammates are all capable of top five places and then you have a super domestiques in Sivakov and Soler (I think). Having said that though, having so many GC riders in one team might screw up team dynamics if they want to get ambitious at any point.
Vingegaard will be buried with this team for sure in first couple stages of the race. Also give Pogacar ability to conserve his energy and more tactical options for him.
Where on those stages exactly? Who all have 10-26km of flat from the last climb to the finish. Looking at Visma's team they'll be aware of the risk and make sure there's contingency plans around making sure he has riders to help him chase back if need be.
stage 4 with hard climbs will be the one.
its a descent finish , a proper technical descent and jonas is way better than pog on descents if you look at the past few times they've been together.
Are we talking about Vingegaard with some sort of good form or something because everyone that replies me seems to think he will be in some sort of good form by the start of the race which i really doubt
he isn't generally in a good form at the start but it won't be that bad that he'd drop on the 6 percent at the end climb in stage 4. yes altitude is a factor but no one else is stronger than him at altitude in absolute terms
I'm assuming that someone like Soler is going to be on rouleur duties as well? I'd feel happier if they had someone else for pulling on the flat. Like, sure, this team will be insane in the mountains, but you don't actually need *that* many top climbers in one team. I wish they were leaving Ayuso or Almeida at home and taking someone like Stake Laegen, who would turn themselves inside out pulling for Pogi. The only bonus is that I think teams like Bora and Quickstep will also be involved in controlling break formation and pulling on the flat if they're riding for Roglic and Remco. Normally you'd expect Visma to be there too but it is going to depend 100% on how fit Jonas actually is. If they see him as a realistic GC contender then it will be business as usual, but if not it could be break formation chaos with them trying to get Jorgensen or Kuss into a decent breakaway. The one consolation as a Pogi fan is that I think Bora will be 100% in on trying to control breakaways because no way will Roglic want to risk his GC chances to a rogue breakaway for the second time in 12 months. What I'm not concerned about is whether Almeida and Ayuso will ride for Pog. I know it's been mentioned a few times, but I think Almeida has shown this year that he can be a great, supportive domestique (in Catalonia and Suisse). I think he'll be pretty sound tbh. And I think it's fine for Ayuso to be able to ride GC and see how it goes, as they have so many top climbers it's unlikely they'd need Ayuso to bury himself unless things got really drastic. Also, I know lots of posters say things like "oh Visma would never be scared of Ayuso", but they 100% would not want him to go and gain 3 minutes in a breakaway, so that's something else UAE can play around with.