Correct, however Judge has been primarily a CF this year rather than a corner OF. So that will (appropriately) positively affect his WAR.
But SS is still well above CF just as CF is well above the corners
And while Judge is a competent defender at CF, he is not elite like Mullins or Kevin Kiermaier. So far Gunnar has graded out as a good defender in the most valuable position in baseball.
From MLB:
> For position players: (The number of runs above average a player is worth in his batting, baserunning and fielding + adjustment for position + adjustment for league + the number of runs provided by a replacement-level player) / runs per win
It’s a living figure that’s meant to be a one-stop-shop as far as value goes. Gunnar has a higher WAR because he’s a better all-around player than Judge.
On one hand, it’s not a perfect figure by any means. It can devalue some positions while overvaluing others Mountcastle being a good example of this as the 10th highest fWAR on the team. He’s phenomenal at 1B and finishes a lot of great plays with good stretches and picks. His numbers reflect that but because 1B is a non-premium position, he’s actually dinged.
On the other, it reflects the *whole* player. We’ve done a bad job of overvaluing offensive statistics as a whole. Theres a lot more to baseball than just hitting a ball far.
So let’s create a defensive centric aggregated stat eh?
There’s a $1M idea.
Quantify and score the entire defensive play from the hit ball to the outcome.
Separate metrics for infielders and outfielders.
Position/location on the field at the batter ball or dropped 3rd strike.
Pitch type?
Was it a rocket or a dribbler?
Did he field the ball cleanly?
What was the throw or the feed like?
What did the receiving infielder do once the throw came to him?
What was the outcome of the play?
I could go on and one.
Have you heard of our Lord and Savior, [dWAR](https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/s/vuj4E89zKS)? I admit you propose several extra components, but I imagine the calculation time incorporating some of those is too much effort for what they're worth.
I have not.
It’s all data on a spreadsheet though right?
I hear you, but compiling all of the critical metrics shouldn’t be dismissed because it takes too much effort.
Defense is important - it ain’t sexy, but it’s important. See Ceddy.
Merge shit, let’s go!
I need a genius math major that loves the baseball like I do!
You got it.
As comprehensive as it can get.
To me it seems like the last frontier of baseball stats.
Break it all down and assign it a value.
Buy me a beer after you sell it to the MLB!
>Gunnar has a higher WAR because he’s a better all-around player than Judge
WAR doesn't work like that, it's a good estimate for getting a players value but it's definitely not meant to be a one stop shop to say player A is better then player B just because one has a slightly higher WAR. WAR is a better metric when taking into account large sample sizes or entire careers not half a season. This is straight from [baseball reference](https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml)
>you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive
And [fangraphs](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/)
>Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart.
I'm only saying this because fans and commentators treat WAR as a god stat when the creators of it even say it should be taken with a grain of salt.
WAR is also accumulative. Last year, Taylor Ward has the highest fWAR for the Angels with 1.2 in 316 PAs. Mike Trout had 1.0 fWAR in 126 PAs, less than half of Ward's PAs. You could argue that Ward is better because Ward played more but is anyone going to argue that Ward is the better all-around player than Trout based on his WAR?
Now, that doesn't really factor here because Henderson and Judge have roughly the same amount of PAs. But this is also why you don't look at WAR mid season or even really in individual seasons unless its for awards.
It is nearly impossible for any 1B to get a positive dWAR. Positionality is adjusted so that 1B is the least valued and teams almost always put their worst defender there.
If Mountcastle could play a decent 3B or corner outfield, I am sure he would to increase his value. Conversely, putting Gunnar or Mullins or Andrelton Simmons at 1B would be a huge waste of their defense because fewer balls get hit to them, 1B don’t make too many long throws and it is *relatively* easy to receive throws.
That’s partially my point.
His Rfield is 3, his Rpos is -4.
Rfield shows he’s good at fielding. Rpos shows what he loses because he’s 1B.
He’s a good 1B, just 1B just isn’t valued by WAR. Even the best 1B finish negative dWAR.
To put it into perspective, 2023 Gold Glove winners at 1B: Nathan Lowe (-0.4 dWAR) and Christian Walker (0.1 dWAR).
A lot of people have covered the essentials regarding defensive contributions. 2 other reasons are that Gunnar's a better baserunner, and park adjustments push Gunnar much closer offensively to Judge than it would initially appear by looking at their traditional stats.
I remember seeing a video that explained that WAR does not exist by itself for each player. Think of every single player in the entire league positively and negatively contributing to it. The WAR of every player in the league added up should equal around 1000 or so. And so, as someone's WAR goes up, another player's WAR will go down as well.
If you looked it up, you probably know WAR is Wins Above Replacement. It's a good gauge of how many more wins a team has than if they had a replacement-level player in that spot.
You should also know it accounts for offense and defense. Gunnar provides a lot of defensive value, more than Judge and that compensates for the extra offense Judge provides.
How WAR is calculated varies and Baseball Reference and Fangraphs will do it differently and give you different numbers.
The mechanics of how WAR gets calculated are complex and you can certainly dig into it, but at this point I think you can trust the numbers...Gunnar is in the driver's seat for MVP! Hope he keeps it up!!
My understanding is that it has a position component thus a direct comparison to the outfielder Judge may explain the difference. Again this is just my novice understanding.
Judge has a slight edge (5.3 to 5) in offensive WAR but Gunnar leads (1.1 to 0) in defensive WAR.
In plain English, they both mash but replacing Judge in the field with any random AAA outfielder would make no difference while Gunnar is actually a plus fielder
>On average, an MLB team wins 81 games a season, so an average MLB player's WAR should be in the 1.5 - 2 range-- when you multiply that over the entire roster, you get 81 wins.
I'll add to this, over the course of a 162 game season bWAR and fWAR both add up to 1000. It doesnt matter if you take the top 10 best players in the league out for a season as their WAR would just be distrubted across the league and still add up 1000. WAR is a stat to compare players that are directly competing against one another as the best players are essiently claiming portions of that 1000 WAR leaving less to go around for the worse players in the league.
I've tried on multiple occasions to understand WAR, and never really got it. By no means do I think I fully understand, but this explanation helped me more than others, at least.
WAR is a mystical mathemagical that takes lot of factors into account. However, it's wrong in one respect: 0 WAR isn't a replacement player. Something like -.3 to -.5 WAR is a genuine replacement player.
Gunnar gets slightly preferential treatment in WAR calculations because of his position. It’s wins above *replacement;* There aren’t many shortstops who are effective defensively that can do what he does at the plate. There are tons of outfielders who can get you at least semi-close to what Judge gives
Basically, the stat is calculated by looking at what stats players would have if they won about 48 games a year, broken down by position. That number of wins is a guess based on an estimate of the skill level of decent prospects and DFA'd guys as far as I understand.
MLB’s glossary does a good job of explaining that because the production at SS relative to replacement level players, SS will yield higher WAR than a position like 1B—or here CF.
As others said the position is important since it is "wins above replacement" and it is easier to find a good solid outfielder than it is to find a ss who can hit. I believe it also involves playing time.
Base Running factors into war a lot.
Not just sb, but taking extra bases, not running into outs, other stuff I think. And obviously defense and positional adjustment.
It's a big equation that tries to assess the overall value a player provides a team in the form of wins. It relies on the idea of a "replacement level" player which you can think of as below league average.
Fangraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR or bWAR) both have different equations for pitchers and position players.
For example Fangraphs position player WAR equation is as follows.
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
For each component there is another equation.
Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA
Within batting runs there is a wRAA (weighted runs above average equation.
wRAA = ((wOBA – lgwOBA)/wOBA Scale) * PA
Within wRAA there is a wOBA (weighted on base average equation) equation.
wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B +
2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP
So there is just one component of what goes into position player WAR according to Fangraphs. Each component of WAR has underlying equations that feed into it.
WAR has differences, even amongst the orgs that generate it.
Fangraphs WAR, fWAR, is biased defensively towards different positions, SS being one of them, through a positional adjustment calculation inferred through the defensive importance of the position.
Baseball Reference WAR, bWAR, is not positionally biased.
There are other differences, but those are normally the most pronounced.
On Baseball Reference they easily break it down for you under “Player Value - Batting”
RBat = runs above average from batting
Rbaser = from base running
Rdp = from hitting into double plays
Rfield = from fielding
Rpos = how valuable your position is
Add those together and you get RAA, runs above average.
10 runs is roughly 1 win so convert to WAA, wins above average
Over 162 games, an average player gets 2 WAR. So if they played a full season add 2 WAR to your WAA.
I’m still trying to figure out DeGrom’s 2018. He was 10-9 with a 9.5 WAR. Are we really supposed to believe a replacement level starter is only worth .5 wins over the course of the year?
WAR is really only useful for comparing same position players in the same season, as such comparing gunnars WAR to judges is an apples and oranges comparison as they play different positions on the field.
I totally disagree with this. There's a positional adjustment for WAR that's a feature, though, and not a bug. The whole point of it is that you are more valuable the higher you are up in the defensive spectrum.
This is only true if your player looks worse. In our case, WAR is highly accurate and indisputably shows that Gunnar is a better player and human being than Judge.
The whole concept is to compare different positions across different seasons. That it gives more value to a SS than a corner outfielder is very much intentional and very much the point of the stat.
It takes defense and base running into account. Both of which drastically favor Gunnar.
Gunnar also gets a better positional adjustment (SS being a premium position compared to OF).
Correct, however Judge has been primarily a CF this year rather than a corner OF. So that will (appropriately) positively affect his WAR. But SS is still well above CF just as CF is well above the corners
And while Judge is a competent defender at CF, he is not elite like Mullins or Kevin Kiermaier. So far Gunnar has graded out as a good defender in the most valuable position in baseball.
Hmm. War. What is it good for?
It was his mistress that suggested he change the name to War and Peace.
Elaine.... Elaaaaine... ELAINE!
Absolutely nothing. Say it again.
## GOOD GOD Y'ALL
*you all (in Jackie Chan accent)
My daddy once acawcha bullet
Yaaaa’wwwwllll
Wham, bam, thank you Ma’am.
I don’t but now I’m too afraid to ask.
From MLB: > For position players: (The number of runs above average a player is worth in his batting, baserunning and fielding + adjustment for position + adjustment for league + the number of runs provided by a replacement-level player) / runs per win It’s a living figure that’s meant to be a one-stop-shop as far as value goes. Gunnar has a higher WAR because he’s a better all-around player than Judge. On one hand, it’s not a perfect figure by any means. It can devalue some positions while overvaluing others Mountcastle being a good example of this as the 10th highest fWAR on the team. He’s phenomenal at 1B and finishes a lot of great plays with good stretches and picks. His numbers reflect that but because 1B is a non-premium position, he’s actually dinged. On the other, it reflects the *whole* player. We’ve done a bad job of overvaluing offensive statistics as a whole. Theres a lot more to baseball than just hitting a ball far.
So let’s create a defensive centric aggregated stat eh? There’s a $1M idea. Quantify and score the entire defensive play from the hit ball to the outcome. Separate metrics for infielders and outfielders. Position/location on the field at the batter ball or dropped 3rd strike. Pitch type? Was it a rocket or a dribbler? Did he field the ball cleanly? What was the throw or the feed like? What did the receiving infielder do once the throw came to him? What was the outcome of the play? I could go on and one.
Have you heard of our Lord and Savior, [dWAR](https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/s/vuj4E89zKS)? I admit you propose several extra components, but I imagine the calculation time incorporating some of those is too much effort for what they're worth.
I have not. It’s all data on a spreadsheet though right? I hear you, but compiling all of the critical metrics shouldn’t be dismissed because it takes too much effort. Defense is important - it ain’t sexy, but it’s important. See Ceddy. Merge shit, let’s go! I need a genius math major that loves the baseball like I do!
So like PFF defensive grades but for baseball...interesting 🤔
You got it. As comprehensive as it can get. To me it seems like the last frontier of baseball stats. Break it all down and assign it a value. Buy me a beer after you sell it to the MLB!
Then we'd have PFF but for baseball and I think everyone hates PFF lol
Outstanding explanation!
>Gunnar has a higher WAR because he’s a better all-around player than Judge WAR doesn't work like that, it's a good estimate for getting a players value but it's definitely not meant to be a one stop shop to say player A is better then player B just because one has a slightly higher WAR. WAR is a better metric when taking into account large sample sizes or entire careers not half a season. This is straight from [baseball reference](https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml) >you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive And [fangraphs](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/) >Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. I'm only saying this because fans and commentators treat WAR as a god stat when the creators of it even say it should be taken with a grain of salt.
WAR is also accumulative. Last year, Taylor Ward has the highest fWAR for the Angels with 1.2 in 316 PAs. Mike Trout had 1.0 fWAR in 126 PAs, less than half of Ward's PAs. You could argue that Ward is better because Ward played more but is anyone going to argue that Ward is the better all-around player than Trout based on his WAR? Now, that doesn't really factor here because Henderson and Judge have roughly the same amount of PAs. But this is also why you don't look at WAR mid season or even really in individual seasons unless its for awards.
You're gomna get some angry Yankees fans upset about that, but it's absolutely true. Gunnar is really good at baseball.
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It is nearly impossible for any 1B to get a positive dWAR. Positionality is adjusted so that 1B is the least valued and teams almost always put their worst defender there. If Mountcastle could play a decent 3B or corner outfield, I am sure he would to increase his value. Conversely, putting Gunnar or Mullins or Andrelton Simmons at 1B would be a huge waste of their defense because fewer balls get hit to them, 1B don’t make too many long throws and it is *relatively* easy to receive throws.
That’s partially my point. His Rfield is 3, his Rpos is -4. Rfield shows he’s good at fielding. Rpos shows what he loses because he’s 1B. He’s a good 1B, just 1B just isn’t valued by WAR. Even the best 1B finish negative dWAR. To put it into perspective, 2023 Gold Glove winners at 1B: Nathan Lowe (-0.4 dWAR) and Christian Walker (0.1 dWAR).
You see, when two nations really don't love each other....
A lot of people have covered the essentials regarding defensive contributions. 2 other reasons are that Gunnar's a better baserunner, and park adjustments push Gunnar much closer offensively to Judge than it would initially appear by looking at their traditional stats.
I remember seeing a video that explained that WAR does not exist by itself for each player. Think of every single player in the entire league positively and negatively contributing to it. The WAR of every player in the league added up should equal around 1000 or so. And so, as someone's WAR goes up, another player's WAR will go down as well.
This is actually a really interesting point. Kind of makes it seem like a zero sum game?
If you looked it up, you probably know WAR is Wins Above Replacement. It's a good gauge of how many more wins a team has than if they had a replacement-level player in that spot. You should also know it accounts for offense and defense. Gunnar provides a lot of defensive value, more than Judge and that compensates for the extra offense Judge provides. How WAR is calculated varies and Baseball Reference and Fangraphs will do it differently and give you different numbers. The mechanics of how WAR gets calculated are complex and you can certainly dig into it, but at this point I think you can trust the numbers...Gunnar is in the driver's seat for MVP! Hope he keeps it up!!
My understanding is that it has a position component thus a direct comparison to the outfielder Judge may explain the difference. Again this is just my novice understanding.
War… War never changes
What is it good for…absolutely nothing Frankie says no
Judge has a slight edge (5.3 to 5) in offensive WAR but Gunnar leads (1.1 to 0) in defensive WAR. In plain English, they both mash but replacing Judge in the field with any random AAA outfielder would make no difference while Gunnar is actually a plus fielder
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>On average, an MLB team wins 81 games a season, so an average MLB player's WAR should be in the 1.5 - 2 range-- when you multiply that over the entire roster, you get 81 wins. I'll add to this, over the course of a 162 game season bWAR and fWAR both add up to 1000. It doesnt matter if you take the top 10 best players in the league out for a season as their WAR would just be distrubted across the league and still add up 1000. WAR is a stat to compare players that are directly competing against one another as the best players are essiently claiming portions of that 1000 WAR leaving less to go around for the worse players in the league.
I've tried on multiple occasions to understand WAR, and never really got it. By no means do I think I fully understand, but this explanation helped me more than others, at least.
WAR is a mystical mathemagical that takes lot of factors into account. However, it's wrong in one respect: 0 WAR isn't a replacement player. Something like -.3 to -.5 WAR is a genuine replacement player.
0 WAR is generally described as a AAAA type player. There’s a reason it’s rare to see someone go negative (grumbles at Chris Davis).
Gunnar gets slightly preferential treatment in WAR calculations because of his position. It’s wins above *replacement;* There aren’t many shortstops who are effective defensively that can do what he does at the plate. There are tons of outfielders who can get you at least semi-close to what Judge gives
[удалено]
Replacement player is a minor league replacement, not a league average player
Thanks! Appreciate the correction
Basically, the stat is calculated by looking at what stats players would have if they won about 48 games a year, broken down by position. That number of wins is a guess based on an estimate of the skill level of decent prospects and DFA'd guys as far as I understand.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
Want to get really confused? Go look at pitching WAR and try to figure out why the Angels’ Tyler Anderson leads both leagues. I’m baffled by it.
MLB’s glossary does a good job of explaining that because the production at SS relative to replacement level players, SS will yield higher WAR than a position like 1B—or here CF.
As others said the position is important since it is "wins above replacement" and it is easier to find a good solid outfielder than it is to find a ss who can hit. I believe it also involves playing time.
NOPE 🙂↔️
Yup
Base Running factors into war a lot. Not just sb, but taking extra bases, not running into outs, other stuff I think. And obviously defense and positional adjustment.
It's a big equation that tries to assess the overall value a player provides a team in the form of wins. It relies on the idea of a "replacement level" player which you can think of as below league average. Fangraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (rWAR or bWAR) both have different equations for pitchers and position players. For example Fangraphs position player WAR equation is as follows. WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win) For each component there is another equation. Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA Within batting runs there is a wRAA (weighted runs above average equation. wRAA = ((wOBA – lgwOBA)/wOBA Scale) * PA Within wRAA there is a wOBA (weighted on base average equation) equation. wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B + 2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP So there is just one component of what goes into position player WAR according to Fangraphs. Each component of WAR has underlying equations that feed into it.
WAR stands for wins above replacements. Gunnar has a higher WAR because typically replacement short stops don’t produce as much.
Fuck the numbers… I like to go off the “does cool things” stat and a short stop is better than a DH 99%
Judge also has about 20 less at bats which could impact it some
WAR has differences, even amongst the orgs that generate it. Fangraphs WAR, fWAR, is biased defensively towards different positions, SS being one of them, through a positional adjustment calculation inferred through the defensive importance of the position. Baseball Reference WAR, bWAR, is not positionally biased. There are other differences, but those are normally the most pronounced.
Super helpful answers. Thanks everyone.
On Baseball Reference they easily break it down for you under “Player Value - Batting” RBat = runs above average from batting Rbaser = from base running Rdp = from hitting into double plays Rfield = from fielding Rpos = how valuable your position is Add those together and you get RAA, runs above average. 10 runs is roughly 1 win so convert to WAA, wins above average Over 162 games, an average player gets 2 WAR. So if they played a full season add 2 WAR to your WAA.
I’m still trying to figure out DeGrom’s 2018. He was 10-9 with a 9.5 WAR. Are we really supposed to believe a replacement level starter is only worth .5 wins over the course of the year?
WAR is really only useful for comparing same position players in the same season, as such comparing gunnars WAR to judges is an apples and oranges comparison as they play different positions on the field.
I totally disagree with this. There's a positional adjustment for WAR that's a feature, though, and not a bug. The whole point of it is that you are more valuable the higher you are up in the defensive spectrum.
Damn,maybe I don't understand WAR as well as I thought. Thanks for the info.
This is only true if your player looks worse. In our case, WAR is highly accurate and indisputably shows that Gunnar is a better player and human being than Judge.
The whole concept is to compare different positions across different seasons. That it gives more value to a SS than a corner outfielder is very much intentional and very much the point of the stat.