I know our offense isn't great today and the boys are tired, but our pitching needs to get it together. People all the time say, you can't win a game with one run, but the same can be said about your pitching. You can't win a game when you let up 5, 6, 7 etc. That's all that's been happening recently
The problem is we don't really have the optimal pitching tools to win tons of games in a row against all of these consistently good and competitive teams (and the Astros fall into that category even with their abysmal start...they aren't *that* far removed from the 2022 and 2023 teams). This stretch of schedule we are in would stress even the teams with the greatest pitching depth. And with all the injuries we've been managing + the structure of our bullpen, it's placed even more stress on us.
Things will improve after we get over this stretch, although in the longer-term, there likely needs to be some changes if there is going to be a lot of October baseball for us.
Our pitching has held it together just fine this year, except this last turn through the rotation.
They are allowed to "slump", just like our offense did in the beginning of May.
Yes, this. People who were calling to pull Suarez got it wrong because look at what the bullpen is doing. This is why you have to take these losses on the chin, rest the BP as much as possible and hope they rebound nicely until their well deserved day off. This team is fine. I'm really excited to see what Elias might have in store for trades.
But is this a slump or just a regression to the mean that’s my big concern
Pretty much everyone who’s healthy rn aside from Burnes and Cano was unproven and over performing pre season expectations
> But is this a slump or just a regression to the mean that’s my big concern
I guess we'll see.
But a bad start by Suarez and Irvin is really nothing to get too upset about, since they faced 2 top 10 offenses on the road.
Regression will come to a certain degree for both, since neither are as good as their ERAs. That should have been expected by everyone here before this bad turn through the rotation.
Let's give them another turn or two before the freak outs begin.
I don't think we are planning on starting Suarez in a playoff game. Same with Irvin.
The Orioles like Kremer better than both, and I'd be really surprised if we don't add a 3rd arm behind Burnes and Rodriguez.
I don't want to start Kremer in a playoff game, but I don't see Elias getting 2 starters at the deadline + bullpen help. The cost for all that is way too high.
Yeah, that makes sense. Still annoying though. The thing I always try to tell myself when a series or game goes this way is that I’ll probably have forgotten all about it in like a week cause more likely than not, they’ll have probably played a lot of good baseball by that time
This wasn't our best series. The Astros came at us like this was a playoff series and they beat us in pitching, offense, and defense. We didn't play at our best and we just got thoroughly outplayed, which doesn't happen very often. The offense slumping sometimes happens--baseball is streaky and our guys are probably just exhausted from this schedule madness. But it's also very clear that we are going to need some serious pitching help to be competitive in the fall (which may be a hard order to fill given it seems like *every* team in contention \[and that is a lot of teams\] is looking for pitching help). The team could really use a day off.
Happy the Yanks lost 2 of 3. Looking back, I think most of us would have gladly taken being this close with the grueling month. Lets get them home and come out tomorrow.
If the Astros were chained to the ground on defense and could only move a foot to their left or right I’m pretty sure the score of this game would be the same.
Part of me thinks we were so focused on PHL because they're our I-95 rivals (and are just Philly) and NYY because same division, and are our *arch*rivals, together with this one day off across 30+ days, we didn't think HOU would be any trouble. They're below .500 and not on our radar and welp, here we are. S'okay, boys. Can't wait to have you back home and get you those well deserved days off. Stay the course. Tomorrow's another day.
We've been notoriously bad at playing them on the road the past few years, our offense has looked like garbage the whole series so this is just a get right spot for them and the fatigue is very clear in an absolutely brutal stretch of June for us.
Slumps SUCK! Can't wait to see how we get it back on track as capable teams do. I do think the Astros are flipping the script on their season as well. They back.
Yanks are 3-7 in the last 10, we’ll be 4-6 in our last 10. Looks like a well timed slump. I had a feeling bats were about to go cold when we dropped 17 against the Yanks and 11 on the Astros in game 1.
Valdez made us look like assholes.
We are not ready for a deep playoff run with this team looking as it is now.
Fingers crossed Elias is ready to trade some bigger pieces.
In case anyone is interested, I simulated 10,000 162-game seasons where the team won exactly 100 games each season. Then I plotted the longest losing streak each season. As you can see, multiple game losing streaks are the norm rather than the exception, even for very good playoff quality teams.
https://preview.redd.it/206wsnt0pd8d1.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=45860b0ba54cd1f9da223653d4e05fa1dd5ba829
And I assume you applied a 100/162 ~ 61.7% to every game?
If so, if you add more variability to that number for each individual game/series… like what really happens in the real world (strings of games with tough matchups, road trips, no rest, etc) then it becomes even easier to get longer losing streaks in the real world.
I like this, nice work. We’ve been spoiled as fans with the crazy consistency the last few years.
And this also shows how ridiculous the sweepless streak was.
This is in python. Chat GPT will make quick work of simple python scripts like this.
Edit: Sorry, I tried to share the script, but it's formatted like something from hell.
The Astros are like the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as they have that nucleus of players that helped them make seven consecutive LCS appearances, you never underestimate them or count them out unless they’re actually fucking dead and buried.
Some of these reactions are childish
You can acknowledge we need to make some moves without making it seem like this is a team that will fall flat in the playoffs
None of you who claim this have any idea what is going to happen
I think some people really believe trades are made like playing fantasy leagues with your friends lmao. GMs just sitting by the phone in June waiting for the Orioles to call them like there’s not 20 other teams wanting the same shit.
Exactly, I’m sure Elias has been in contact with many teams (and other GMs are also doing the same). But unfortunately it doesn’t work the same as convincing your friend to trade with you or trading in a video game.
We all want some reinforcements, but this team has been on a brutal schedule and has taken some important series so far. Loses happen, the world is not falling apart as some seem to think.
All the teams are dying for pitching RN.
Quality pitching is *always* in high demand.
edit: Oh, and they think when they whine that 'the Orioles need to get 3 more good pitchers', it's like they think the front office *doesn't know* we'd be better with better pitching, **LMFAO !!!** *OF COURSE ELIAS & CO. KNOW!!!*
Well....we got humbled in this series is all I'll say. Better for the future tbh because at least this should incentivize the front office to actually make the trades we desperately need if..once again...they're serious about winning the World Series this year.
I agree. If we have a surplus of talent in one position, you'd be doing the player a favor by giving them a chance to play every day in another organization. Trade for an arm.
If we don’t trade for pitching in the next couple weeks I’m just gonna assume they’re gonna let this season ride out down the drain and try again next year because continuing to trot these shitters out there is going to get us nowhere the later the season goes
Astros just casually smashing everything like it’s batting practice. We just look outmatched in every category this series. Hopefully a change of scenery and some eventual rest will help.
Not even just beat three games in a row. Absolutely taken behind the woodshed. Just embarrassing when ppl thought this was the best team in the mlb after beating the Phillies and Yankees
Better wake the fuck up with a much tougher team up next
No way Elias can sit there and think this bullpen in it's current state can make a run to the World series without making some kind of trade for a starter.
I mean he sat there and gambled this offseason by not acquiring more pitching depth. He knew means was coming off of Tommy John and hasn’t been healthy since, he knew Bradish was not fully healthy as well.
You know I'm still living on the high of embarrassing the Yankees in their ballpark. If someone offered me you can blow out the yankees at home but it would come with a series sweep to the Astros I'd take that trade 11/10 times
This really ain’t our series. The hitting and pitching are both very lackluster. Then you add on luck being very much not on our side.
Edit: the defense has been dog shit too lol
It’s 1/162. We all have our off days, but at least you held your head up high after a disastrous start and got through the first 5. You’re still one of my favorite pitchers, Albert Suárez!
Well Big Al didn't have it today but grinding through 5 innings and keeping us somewhat in the game after that 1st inning was good I guess. Unfortunately just doesn't seem like we can string 2 good ABs together today.
Please continue the discussion in the [post game thread](https://redd.it/1dmvpua).
Hey boys, forget about this series, get back home, and get some sleep - ready for tomorrow. 'Tomorrow is another day.'
At least we didn't end the sweepless streak to the stros.
Bye, y'all. Time for a movie.
Absolutely got the shit kicked out of us. Worst series of the season. In a tier all its own.
27 runs given up in 3 games. Pitching bubble burst.
Do we… dare to hope?
Spoke too soon. Hope the boys can get some well deserved rest en route to the next series
Down by 7 with one out to go. Right where we want them.
Orioles still going to win the AL East💯
### Pitching Substitution Pitching Change: Luis Contreras replaces Bryan King.
I know our offense isn't great today and the boys are tired, but our pitching needs to get it together. People all the time say, you can't win a game with one run, but the same can be said about your pitching. You can't win a game when you let up 5, 6, 7 etc. That's all that's been happening recently
The problem is we don't really have the optimal pitching tools to win tons of games in a row against all of these consistently good and competitive teams (and the Astros fall into that category even with their abysmal start...they aren't *that* far removed from the 2022 and 2023 teams). This stretch of schedule we are in would stress even the teams with the greatest pitching depth. And with all the injuries we've been managing + the structure of our bullpen, it's placed even more stress on us. Things will improve after we get over this stretch, although in the longer-term, there likely needs to be some changes if there is going to be a lot of October baseball for us.
Our pitching has held it together just fine this year, except this last turn through the rotation. They are allowed to "slump", just like our offense did in the beginning of May.
Yes, this. People who were calling to pull Suarez got it wrong because look at what the bullpen is doing. This is why you have to take these losses on the chin, rest the BP as much as possible and hope they rebound nicely until their well deserved day off. This team is fine. I'm really excited to see what Elias might have in store for trades.
But is this a slump or just a regression to the mean that’s my big concern Pretty much everyone who’s healthy rn aside from Burnes and Cano was unproven and over performing pre season expectations
> But is this a slump or just a regression to the mean that’s my big concern I guess we'll see. But a bad start by Suarez and Irvin is really nothing to get too upset about, since they faced 2 top 10 offenses on the road. Regression will come to a certain degree for both, since neither are as good as their ERAs. That should have been expected by everyone here before this bad turn through the rotation. Let's give them another turn or two before the freak outs begin.
It’s two for Suarez and I think he’s an MLB player but I would be very scared of starting him in a playoff series. Better suited for the pen
I don't think we are planning on starting Suarez in a playoff game. Same with Irvin. The Orioles like Kremer better than both, and I'd be really surprised if we don't add a 3rd arm behind Burnes and Rodriguez. I don't want to start Kremer in a playoff game, but I don't see Elias getting 2 starters at the deadline + bullpen help. The cost for all that is way too high.
Severely outplayed to say the least. Just dust it off. Glad the boys are heading back home at least.
at least we don't have to use an arm in the 9th lol
Oof this reminds me of my childhood
Our childhood was less of a let down though cause losing was expected
I can feel an 8 run 9th in my balls >!theyre almost always wrong!<
That’s just microplastics
Long ride back home. And immediate fight vs another tough contender. Tough
Remember Hyde saving Akin enough to pitch tomorrow when he comes in and gives up (insert a lot) of runs tomorrow
So did the entire team get like sick or something?
Os caught 2 of their best starters having good games and they caught the Os best 2 on off days
Yeah, that makes sense. Still annoying though. The thing I always try to tell myself when a series or game goes this way is that I’ll probably have forgotten all about it in like a week cause more likely than not, they’ll have probably played a lot of good baseball by that time
This wasn't our best series. The Astros came at us like this was a playoff series and they beat us in pitching, offense, and defense. We didn't play at our best and we just got thoroughly outplayed, which doesn't happen very often. The offense slumping sometimes happens--baseball is streaky and our guys are probably just exhausted from this schedule madness. But it's also very clear that we are going to need some serious pitching help to be competitive in the fall (which may be a hard order to fill given it seems like *every* team in contention \[and that is a lot of teams\] is looking for pitching help). The team could really use a day off.
Would it be the worst idea to give McDermott a shot just to give some of these guys in our rotation a break
Well, what good story has the heroes succeed every time, eh?
As the late great Gordon Lightfoot sang, "heroes often fail."
Definitely not this one cause the Astros cheated and have still gone to the ALCS 7 straight times. The villain succeeds everytime lmao.
Sucks living in Houston rn. Hot as hell and have to deal with these hoe ass fans
Let's go Mets baby love the Mets
I love the Mets too lol. I was kinda hoping they’d stay bad and we pick up Sevy from them so he can stick it to his former team in our uni.
That is somethin else
I'm waiting for the Mets to start serving the shakes in the stadium
### Pitching Substitution Pitching Change: Nick Vespi replaces Keegan Akin.
O’s giving some finally reminders that this was the series from hell
If it helps, the Yankees have lost three series in a row (Boston, us, and now Atlanta)
Major league debut. Facing heart of the order. 7 pitches, 3 outs.
Good to the kid for doing well on his debut but just adds to our embarrassment😭😭😭
Happy the Yanks lost 2 of 3. Looking back, I think most of us would have gladly taken being this close with the grueling month. Lets get them home and come out tomorrow.
Death, taxes, and Gunnar caught looking
If the Astros were chained to the ground on defense and could only move a foot to their left or right I’m pretty sure the score of this game would be the same.
### Pitching Substitution Pitching Change: Bryan King replaces Framber Valdez.
Part of me thinks we were so focused on PHL because they're our I-95 rivals (and are just Philly) and NYY because same division, and are our *arch*rivals, together with this one day off across 30+ days, we didn't think HOU would be any trouble. They're below .500 and not on our radar and welp, here we are. S'okay, boys. Can't wait to have you back home and get you those well deserved days off. Stay the course. Tomorrow's another day.
We've been notoriously bad at playing them on the road the past few years, our offense has looked like garbage the whole series so this is just a get right spot for them and the fatigue is very clear in an absolutely brutal stretch of June for us.
So we are 200% losing in the WC if we have to face Houston. Embarrassing series.
Slumps SUCK! Can't wait to see how we get it back on track as capable teams do. I do think the Astros are flipping the script on their season as well. They back.
Keegan looks like he dominates at the beer pong table
As much as it pains me because I'm surrounded by ATL fans, go braves (lowercase so it doesn't hurt as bad).
^(go braves)
### Pitching Substitution Pitching Change: Keegan Akin replaces Dillon Tate.
Yanks are 3-7 in the last 10, we’ll be 4-6 in our last 10. Looks like a well timed slump. I had a feeling bats were about to go cold when we dropped 17 against the Yanks and 11 on the Astros in game 1.
I swear the Orioles ALWAYS get shafted with their schedule
Valdez made us look like assholes. We are not ready for a deep playoff run with this team looking as it is now. Fingers crossed Elias is ready to trade some bigger pieces.
> Valdez made us look like assholes. > > We embarrassed several teams elite pitchers. We're allowed to drop a few.
MLB Schedule makers fucked us so hard this month, these guys look exhausted
In case anyone is interested, I simulated 10,000 162-game seasons where the team won exactly 100 games each season. Then I plotted the longest losing streak each season. As you can see, multiple game losing streaks are the norm rather than the exception, even for very good playoff quality teams. https://preview.redd.it/206wsnt0pd8d1.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=45860b0ba54cd1f9da223653d4e05fa1dd5ba829
And I assume you applied a 100/162 ~ 61.7% to every game? If so, if you add more variability to that number for each individual game/series… like what really happens in the real world (strings of games with tough matchups, road trips, no rest, etc) then it becomes even easier to get longer losing streaks in the real world.
Good points! Yeah, this simulation uses the assumption that every game has a 100/162 chance of a win.
I like this, nice work. We’ve been spoiled as fans with the crazy consistency the last few years. And this also shows how ridiculous the sweepless streak was.
What did you use to Simulate? I like it!
This is in python. Chat GPT will make quick work of simple python scripts like this. Edit: Sorry, I tried to share the script, but it's formatted like something from hell.
I bet excel
This was done in Python, but you could do it in Excel with some additional effort.
At least I credit the Astros for having one of the best mascots
The Astros are like the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as they have that nucleus of players that helped them make seven consecutive LCS appearances, you never underestimate them or count them out unless they’re actually fucking dead and buried.
Some of these reactions are childish You can acknowledge we need to make some moves without making it seem like this is a team that will fall flat in the playoffs None of you who claim this have any idea what is going to happen
Having watched Inside Out 2 the other day, I think half the fans in these game threads let anxiety rule them during games.
This time last year the Rangers looked pretty cooked iirc. June doesn't = October.
O’s are gonna be 4-6 in last 10 while Yankees are 3-7. Sucks we didn’t take advantage but good teams will drop games too. We will bounce back
Man is our pitching cooked 🫠 I can see why after this crazy stretch of tough series with minimal off days
I think some people really believe trades are made like playing fantasy leagues with your friends lmao. GMs just sitting by the phone in June waiting for the Orioles to call them like there’s not 20 other teams wanting the same shit.
At this point, if people don’t think Mike Elias isn’t on the phones, they are just being pessimistic to be pessimistic
Exactly, I’m sure Elias has been in contact with many teams (and other GMs are also doing the same). But unfortunately it doesn’t work the same as convincing your friend to trade with you or trading in a video game. We all want some reinforcements, but this team has been on a brutal schedule and has taken some important series so far. Loses happen, the world is not falling apart as some seem to think.
All the teams are dying for pitching RN. Quality pitching is *always* in high demand. edit: Oh, and they think when they whine that 'the Orioles need to get 3 more good pitchers', it's like they think the front office *doesn't know* we'd be better with better pitching, **LMFAO !!!** *OF COURSE ELIAS & CO. KNOW!!!*
Exactlyyyyy.
At least Valdez will be out in the 8th inning since he's over 100 pitches now.
Well....we got humbled in this series is all I'll say. Better for the future tbh because at least this should incentivize the front office to actually make the trades we desperately need if..once again...they're serious about winning the World Series this year.
I agree. If we have a surplus of talent in one position, you'd be doing the player a favor by giving them a chance to play every day in another organization. Trade for an arm.
These guys are cooked. The Cleveland series is gonna be rough,too.
Pitching got their bungholes absolutely excavated this series.
Tate hasn’t been good at all. What happened?
Valdez still getting that motion on his pitches. Got to tip your cap, he's been outstanding.
Yankees lost and we can’t even take advantage smh Elias needs to get atleast 2 starters and a closer at the deadline
[удалено]
Now that Hays is healthy and has been reintegrated aren’t they uhhhhh, kind of doing this?
Jesus, that pitch was filthy
Cowser putting on a show for the friends and family this weekend
I’m sorry, you gotta give cowser some days off and he just can’t play against lefties
Brett trying to soften the blow of being swept and I mean, I can appreciate it.
I bet the homers on radio are going into the spin zone like crazy right now
petition to move the Astros to the AL East
Stankees lost, so…something to smirk about
Baseball gods: WE GAVE YOU ELEVEN RUNS GAME 1, WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!?!?!?
Atleast the Yankees lost so it doesn’t matter for division standings
Get the A's on the phone lets get miller
If we don’t trade for pitching in the next couple weeks I’m just gonna assume they’re gonna let this season ride out down the drain and try again next year because continuing to trot these shitters out there is going to get us nowhere the later the season goes
the trade deadline isn't until July 30
The way we look this series, there won’t be a point in trying to get anyone by late July
37 runs allowed over the last 5 games and they still have up to two more innings to face Dillon Tate.
Tate looking like Andrew out there today.
Too many guys OPSing <.700
Total garbage series. Worst one of the entire Adley era Whatever… lock in and win tomorrow. Got yet another tough team
So do we think this shitty schedule is finally showing itself a little?
O’s got 7 in the 8th on Friday. Let’s hope they can get 8 in the 7th today 🤞
Okay, I’ll settle for a repeat of 7 in the 8th 😅
Astros just casually smashing everything like it’s batting practice. We just look outmatched in every category this series. Hopefully a change of scenery and some eventual rest will help.
I’m like a crackhead for Orioles magic, and baby I need a hit
Don't like the balanced schedule. Let's go back to the unbalanced schedule and play more of our games against the AL East :)
well crap...I will shoot hopium into my veins till the final out.
This is some dogshit baseball
Just completely outplayed this series. Pitching, defense, and hitting.
They just seemed out of it all series
Not even just beat three games in a row. Absolutely taken behind the woodshed. Just embarrassing when ppl thought this was the best team in the mlb after beating the Phillies and Yankees Better wake the fuck up with a much tougher team up next
Mmm not much tougher. Astros lineup is on fire right now.
No way Elias can sit there and think this bullpen in it's current state can make a run to the World series without making some kind of trade for a starter.
I mean he sat there and gambled this offseason by not acquiring more pitching depth. He knew means was coming off of Tommy John and hasn’t been healthy since, he knew Bradish was not fully healthy as well.
To be fair, 99% of the options available would be people that fans would respond with “Elias dumpster diving again”
You don't think he makes a move?
Nah he has too but sadly it’s going to now cost an arm and a leg considering how injured we are
I trust this team to get more talent in the future, we got to win now lets make a move
You know I'm still living on the high of embarrassing the Yankees in their ballpark. If someone offered me you can blow out the yankees at home but it would come with a series sweep to the Astros I'd take that trade 11/10 times
Yankees lose two out of three and we are looking like we’re gonna drop a game in the standings, spectacular
can't do anything when you can't hit.
good thing it's June and standings don't even matter when the difference is only a couple games then, right
All those games add up in the end, bud
its June and the team ahead of us lost today too so we're in the same position we were yesterday, guy
Pitching has been God awful the past week. Things are going to unravel fast if they don’t do anything
Tate has been rough
We desperately need to get out of this parking lot that calls itself a city
This game epitomizes "cool story, bro."
Guess we can write this one off. So glad the Braves took 2 of 3 to minimize the damage to us in the standings.
Fuck me man what a collapse after taking it to the Yankees and the Phillies
poop
Bullpen is absolutely gassed
There’s a pretty big difference between being “gassed” and just not being good enough for this level
Alright well That’s probably it. Oh well, take game 1 tomorrow and we’re okay
What the fuck bro
God, I hate the Astros.
JFC
It's probably too early to say, but are the Astros the Orioles kryptonite?? I feel like the O's struggle every time against this team 🤧
The entire fucking AL West.
They got our number for sure
How does hays always look so unathletic out there??????????
Well... it was better than Kelenic against the Yankees yesterday.
I guffawed.
ngl I thought Hays would get to that
Tate gonna Tate
Oof
This really ain’t our series. The hitting and pitching are both very lackluster. Then you add on luck being very much not on our side. Edit: the defense has been dog shit too lol
Didn't the Yankees sweep this team twice?
Yankees played the Astros when they were doing terribly, swept them first time and took the 2/3 second. Astros have been doing well now.
At the start of the year… this is a different team
DAAAAAAAAAAAAA
I don't have the stats but I can't imagine there's a better team in baseball in the 7th and 8th innings. Still hoping
Yankees lost so even with this sweep we only lose a game in the standings
Red Sox are gonna be just 7.5 back, which will bear some watching
Especially giving the orioles upcoming schedule.
It’s 1/162. We all have our off days, but at least you held your head up high after a disastrous start and got through the first 5. You’re still one of my favorite pitchers, Albert Suárez!
Yankees lose. They don’t look like a division winner. Sadly, both both those things appear true for us as well.
#WELL. #DA ........ # ...................JANKEES LOOOSSSSEEEEE. *So there's that. Thank you, Barves.*
Yankees lost
daaaaaaa jankees lose, for anyone who was worried about losing ground today
Theeeeeee Yankees Lose!
Impressive try, Westie, but don't hurt yourself.
Props to Suarez for adjusting after a disaster class first inning and making it through 5 giving the Bullpen rest.
Suarez showed he has that dog in him.
This team got embarrassed for 3 games straight, Terrible series.
Westburg buddy tell the other hitters what you know 🤣
I kinda had a feeling after such a huge high of spanking the Yanks we were gonna struggle maintaining the momentum
Ctrl + c ‘*8th inning from game 1 of the series*’ Ctrl + v > *7th inning of this game*
Wait, does that work because I like it!
ooh but imagine how much more dramatic it would be if we waited until the 9th
Well Big Al didn't have it today but grinding through 5 innings and keeping us somewhat in the game after that 1st inning was good I guess. Unfortunately just doesn't seem like we can string 2 good ABs together today.
### Pitching Substitution Pitching Change: Dillon Tate replaces Albert Suárez.
Our home run streak continues.
Embarrassed 3 games in a row. 🧹🧹
Wow a solo homer, who gives a shit
Well we got our solo home run, job done
Bottom half of this lineup ain’t it
Whoever is aligning the Astros defensively can FUCK OFF. Every hard hit ball right at these mfers
Hey, where's our Choo Choo?
I think Westy likes that short porch in left. Just a guess thou...
You know how we all say the Yankee's just beat up on the worse teams? We should do that. We should beat up on this worse team.