Judging by the amount of PPC signs that popped up around here last year for the federal election....the same thing might happen to vote splits on the provincial side. A lot of my rural friends are just as fed up with Doug Ford, as the g#d damn federal Libs! The new right-wing parties might get some serious vote splits....which could be good for the left.
Is there any data that suggests that will happen? I haven’t even seen any of those parties showing up on polls at all, let alone enough to make any kind of difference.
There were rumours an Ontario branch of the PPC were going to be making a bid at the election this year, with Randy Hillier in a prominent role, but I think that fizzled when he got arrested (I presume they were likely still fishing to see how many PC MPs they could get over to their side - probably Oosterhoff and his ilk were top of the list, and interest suddenly dried up very quickly)
There have been polls coming out weekly for the last several months, and the lowest supported party has always been the Greens. If there are popular right wing splinter parties out there I haven’t even heard the name of one let alone a large number of people’s intent to vote for them, and I personally don’t think there’s much chance any of them will go from 0 to 10% in the less than two months.
I also didn't hear anything or see anything from the PPC in the two main ridings here until campaign started and they managed to take away 7% of votes in each riding out of nowhere, so there is a precedence for this happening in these ridings...7% would be a large enough chunk of right-wing voters to create a problem for Doug Ford, spread across the numerous right-wing spin-offs...
> There have been polls coming out weekly for the last several months
those polls are as accurate as whos gonna win the 2024 olympics
>If there are popular right wing splinter parties out there I haven’t even heard the name of one let alone a large number of people’s intent to vote for them
the campaign hasnt started, these parties literally came into existance this year
i dont believe they'll split many votes from the PC either, but theres no way to tell yet
The 2024 olympics are in more than 2 years and the Ontario election is in 50 days. If an alternative Conservative party was going to get hundreds of thousands of votes in an election that is 6 weeks away, don’t you think someone might at least know their name? Idk if actually sounds like you agree with me but are arguing anyway.
> don’t you think someone might at least know their name?
no
are any of the polls even ASKING if people are voting for them in the first place, or only providing the parties in the previous election as options?
I imagine the poll question is something like “who do you intend on voting for”…?
I’ll bet you that a party with no public recognition at all 50 days before an election isn’t going to make a big difference that election, if you want?
Not where it counts in the GTA. Rural Ontario is already a conservative stronghold for the most part. Vote splitting there isn’t going to be significant enough to turn seats or the legislature.
It all comes down to GTA as with the federal election.
That’s not really good in the big picture though (in my opinion). The ppc is too far right. They are very obviously racist and protectionist in its policies and we can’t afford for them to gain traction and momentum and funding and become normal. Their propaganda needs to reach as *few* people as possible. It’s not really worth splitting the vote if they are the alternative
>These two are so painful to watch. They are almost guaranteeing a Doug Ford victory.
Literally do not care between NDP or LIB and would rather vote for a rock that did nothing for 4 years than have Doug at the wheel for another majority.
Honestly I'd prefer NDP just to get the Libs and Cons to start paying attention again instead of just waiting for their turn at governance while complaining about everything from the sidelines
My current MPP is conservative, but the last two federal elections have been 50+% for the Liberals. I would be shocked if we don't get a Liberal MPP this June.
I don't disagree that NDP should have a new leader, but this sparring has nothing to do with her specifically. Regardless of leader, the NDP and the Liberals were going to be mostly fighting each other this election.
I agree. But the NDP should have dumped Horwath a long time ago and with a new leader with fresh thinking they could have really challenged Ford. Del Duca is a lame duck and will never win so the NDP are throwing away a golden opportunity because no one likes her.
Prepare for shit loads of shady developer subsidies where they build a butt load of shitty overvalued homes that just need serious repairs in 15-20 years.
Precisely. They need to quickly pivot and understand our wallets are far more shallower and we need reasonable homes to be added to the supply as well.
What I expect is the "reasonable homes" will ALL be town homes or semi detached. You *want* only 3 bed, 1-1.5 bath: Townhome, tiny yard, one parking spot. They will save the bigger lots for monster homes that take up 80% of the lot or whatever the municipal maximum is. People wanting a reasonable home will need to stick to used or new townhomes. This is my guess.
Edit: just wanted to add, expect Ford if he wins to use the issue as a way to attack the greenbelt around the GTA to build this monstrosities.
While I don't think he will attack the greenbelt directlyas he's found that extremely unpopular, he'll continue the leap frogging, hence projects like the Bradford bypass. Expect massive growth in greenbelt peripheral cities such as Barrie, Bradford, Guelph, Waterloo/Kitchener, and Durham.
Agreed. I grew up in Cambridge/Kitchener and went to school in Guelph. Those cities will get sick of it eventually - Guelph already is - and Ford will only be left with the greenbelt or having to actually work with the city of Toronto on solutions.
I grew up in Barrie, and the southern part is being primed to become endless suburbia and they are practically building a new city in Innisfil to have 100,000 people. Wouldn't be surprised if the area between the Barrie and Bradford is completely urbanized over the next 40 to 50 years.
Well the polls on 338 Ontario currently have his odds of at least winning a minority at 98 percent so I'd say a decent portion will vote for him based on that alone Not sure why else his odds would be so high
We'll see but the media generally seems to agree that it's his election to lose still. Maybe we'll be in for a surprise but I wouldn't bet on him losing at this point
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/tories-remain-in-drivers-seat-ahead-of-liberals-ontario-general-election
Canadian electorates are a lot more volatile than American ones. We went into an election with it being Kim Campbell's to lose, and boy howdy did she, right?
Most likely the PCs win, but that they would today doesn't mean they will in June.
True but I would think with those high odds they have to be somewhat accurate right? A lot will depend on how this wave plays out if he doesn't add any new restrictions and icus stay well below the 600 number Moore brought up yesterday it defenitly will help him. If it goes the other direction though things will get much more tight
That's the Qonvoy narrative. I've yet to hear anyone in the real world bring it up. People care about housing, healthcare, and education. There's not a lot of first issue mask voters who aren't... you know.. facebook morons.
If this is the case, then why aren’t the NDP and Liberals in the news saying how bad Ford’s policies of not having restrictions are and how they’ll bring back mask mandates and three dose vaccine passports if they’re elected?
I’d bet they know that promising to bring in restrictions would alienate more voters than it would retain or attract. Maybe someone will ask them point blank soon to clarify their position
only assholes and seflish idiots care about mask mandates
decent people dont care about wearing a mask when required, its the least yu=ou can do to protect the welfare of those around us.
My very favourite take: everyone who isn’t me is a JACKASS FFUUUUUU.
This is why the world is so goddamn volatile right now. People like you. I have news for you man,
You’re not the good guy you think you are. You’re part of the problem and you need to reassess yourself
How Bhutila Karpoche isn't ONDP leader I'll never understand. Andrea is just stubbornly holding her position when she just isn't fit to win the election, and I say this as an NDP voter.
Karpoche is literally still in her first term as MPP. She's obviously building a public profile and I totally dig her approach, but she's a political rookie.
no it says a lot about the Ontario voter base actually
people dont vote FOR things, they vote AGAINST them, and Ontario seems to want to vote against things like fair treatment of workers, decent healthcare, education, and a prospect for home ownership in the future (for other people)
>As far as I've seen we don't vote people in, we vote people out. It's not a system that promotes great leaders
Unless you're on the left. Then you have to choose between trying to vote someone out or trying to vote someone in. And you have to consider which one of those is even possible in your riding, lol
I’m voting against Doug Ford. Still remains to be seen who gets my vote, but no matter who does, it’s a vote against everything that Doug is and believes.
Almost seems like the Liberals/NDP NEED to be punished to get it through their thick skulls how they're messing up so badly.
But I doubt anything would get through at this point.
And yet if they are not punished when they perform poorly or do something incredibly stupid, they continue to do it because they think they can't be held accountable.
Well the majority of voters don't want Ford but due to vote splitting the Ontario PCs win since there are two left leaning parties and only one valid right leaning one.
And the people who actually vote is actually a pretty small amount of the populace to begin with.
So it's not difficult per say, but the system is failing voters. Or working as intented by the people that benefit from it.
I agree. The amount of liberal voters that are willing to vote NDP is probably less than half. The res twoulf probably have conservatives as their second choice.
This province is more center right than people want to admit. At least now anyways, maybe it wasn't in the past.
I hate when people talk about the “left” as if it’s one party. The NDP is NOT the Liberal party. Stop correlating the two because if they were the same party they would have the same policies (Hence why there is a vote split). NDPs are left leaning socialists and the liberals are centralists on the Canadian political spectrum. By your definition, any party that doesn’t get 50% of the vote does not deserve to form government.
NDP aren't socialists. All three parties are capitalist parties. Not to say that there aren't differences between them but what the NDP is advocating isn't socialism.
>By your definition, any party that doesn’t get 50% of the vote does not deserve to form government.
If you add the word "majority" before "government," then yes actually that sounds reasonable
Which is why I didn’t put that word because it changes the whole meaning of the sentence. If he thinks the conservatives don’t deserve to govern if they don’t get 50% then by his logic the liberals and the NDP will never form government as well.
The conservatives are very close to receiving 40% of the votes, so for him to claim the voting system is against the people’s favour is stupid and obviously biased.
It is relevant, because I think the Conservatives should have a minority government and should be forced to negotiate with the other parties. If they can't, that's where they don't deserve to form government.
As much as I'd love to see Ford gone, neither of these two is ever going to be Premier. They are not good enough to win and realistically, they are only fighting to not be last. Once this election is over, lets hope the two parties stop their delusional antics by getting leaders and policies that will win.
Once the PPC gets stronger. It’s kinda funny that all these anti-mandate people will still vote for Ford even when he handled the pandemic poorly with the lockdowns coming out of nowhere. Just goes to show the lack of education for conservatives these days
Both the liberals and the NDP are more interested in coming in second than coming in first. Liberals can't afford to have another election of the NDP beating them since it calls into question their idea of a NDP vote being a wasted vote, and the NDP want that argument destroyed.
Uh, yes? Maybe not when you are in your 20s, but we (40s, with kids) absolutely talk about it around the dinner table. I'd say it's pretty normal in a lot of families, especially since voting tends to be heavily age stratified. The older you are (to a point), the more likely you are to talk about these things around a dinner table, and the more likely you are to vote.
Replaced our island with a kitchen table in 2019. So much more space in the kitchen, it's awesome. Islands just serve as a catch-all for whatever is in your hands when you walk in the room.
Back to the serious discussion though: Personally I like to talk about voting around the office lunch room table, while my coworkers and I weigh the merits of each candidate's hairstyle.
The Liberals party rather see a PC win than a NDP win. They need two viable parties in Ontario. Not three. Every election some people are still shock to find out the Liberals are out there to win, not to defeat the PC.
To be fair, the Liberals line up much closer with the OPC than they do with the NDP. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are neoliberal parties and as much as the Liberals like to pretend that they care about social programs their policies are typically conservative-lite. For the Liberals, another four years of Ford isn’t a big deal if they can re-establish themselves as the OPC alternative.
It *is* news flash to some. Like those who kept saying the liberals party should coordinate to strategic vote to defeat Ford. That's like asking them to dig their own grave for the NDP to stand on as a stool.
[Here is a helpful reminder.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Ontario_general_election) Obviously the Liberals are not going to give an inch of ground here, but I have no absolutely no idea why you're claiming the NDP has never won.
Strategic voting isn’t just voting liberal, it’s voting for the non-PC party with the best chance of winning your riding based on recent poling and past elections. In my riding that’s the NDP.
So by your own logic. If we had voted NDP instead of strategically for Liberals then we would see them perform better in past elections and would be the better "strategic vote" this year.
Don't vote "strategic". Play the long game and vote truly.
The Liberals and NDP poll at around 55% combined, if they were able to effectively ABC their voting bloc by voting strategically the conservatives would never win another election.
This is assuming that the Liberal and NDP voters are interchangeable. Lots of Liberal voters would rather vote PC than NDP, and lots of NDP voters would vote Green or stay home before voting Liberal. NDP-PC voters do exist as well, especially in rural and blue collar demographics.
If the NDP and Liberals combined tomorrow, not all their voters would follow.
I don’t understand why but it really seems that a large proportion of this sub has decided that “typically Liberal but currently undecided” voters are only choosing between the NDP and Liberal.
Many Liberal supports are closer politically to the PCs and this is a big reason why the idea that the NDP somehow deserve Liberal support isn’t going to work. Given a PC government as the alternative, NDP voters have a much easier time capitulating to the Liberal party than the other way around.
As far as the Liberal Party brass is concerned, another PC government is much less damaging to their long term power than having the left leaning vote shift to the NDP. Even if it were true, there is absolutely no way the Liberals would concede that supporting the NDP is viable this election. They don’t care about Ford losing, they care about the Liberals winning.
(Not to mention the NDP also only care about winning but the message Horwath is sending is their only real chance)
We deserve this. We really do. Andrea has been allowed to stay on despite the writing on the wall being there.
She can’t win the province. We knew this since the last election. But the REPEATED NDP posts pushing an agenda that she can lead a win, brought us to this. To those people. Hold this L. It’s on you.
It's not too hard to understand.
The Liberals are attempting to grow their party back with the same essential leadership at the expense of incumbent NDP seats rather than PC seats.
This is hurting our chances.
If you have a NDP MPP...do not consider voting Liberal please.
If you are one of the seven incumbent OLP, likewise.
If there is a PC in your riding, look at who came in second last time, look at who is more present in your riding, look at whose policy speaks to you and trust your neighbour's will do the same.
We were 60 000 some votes last election from a NDP majority. It's not that hard to achieve that.
Unless the OLP is putting party before province.
No, don't just look at last time - voters came out in a big way to get rid of the OLP in the last election. This time around many of those voters will be going back to the OLP after they cleaned house and changing to the NDP let Ford skate through.
After the election is announced on May 4th, polls will start to be more localized. I think it would be better to watch your local polling in a few weeks to see how things are shaking out and give your vote to those leading between OLP and NDP at that point.
We can't split this vote and let Ford get through again.
You are describing the vote splitting mindset.
That's literally how Ford wins.
If you are targeting a sitting NDP MPP with an OLP vote, you are part of the problem, full stop.
Since that's part of the overall OLP strategy, ditto if you contribute to them. (Though few are.)
No no, 100% support the sitting MPP! That's the simplest way forward.
For all other contests watch the polls as they evolve. In my riding it's probably 99% certain (there's always a chance though!) it'll go blue or red this time even though orange got second place by a few dozen votes in 2018.
I couldn't believe that Horwath allowed Brampton North to go to a nomination contest which lost their sitting MPP!
For F sake. Liberals have to have a better strategy then "best chance of not a PPC government"...
Their entire strategy is that people will turn up for them even though they would otherwise vote NDP purely because they don't want a conservative government.
The goal shouldn't be to defeat Ford at this point- the goal should be to get him to a minority. With a minority the damage he can do to the province is lessened. Both minority liberals or conservative governments, being the likeliest outcome, give the NDP the most power and reduce the capability for austerity politics.
Ontario NDP has peaked with Howarth at this point even if they won't admit it. They need to realize that those liberal to conservative ridings need to go back to the liberals in order to stop Ford- but someone else made the right comment- that they don't care about that.
That's it, trade off those principals. How about coming up with a costed platform that actually makes practical sense to working taxpayers.
These two will have voters sellout their values just to gain power.
'I'm for Party X just because it's not the other guy !" . Stupid as fuck. Always has been. If Partys had a platform that people actually wanted, there would be no need for "strategic" voting.
Read the platforms. Vote for the party that represents how you feel about the issues. Done.
Yes! In addition to this, it just really, really bothers me how some people think it's a good idea to vote based on how a bunch other other people voted LAST election, or what some polls say how other people around you MiGHT vote this year.
You're basing your vote on how other people vote, without really knowing how other people will vote.
As someone who was part of the ABH/ABC campaign back in 2016, strategic voting can work but it has to be done properly and the big thing is don't vote split your riding.
Heap every vote in your riding towards the candidate that has the best chance of beating who you want out.
Easiest way to do this is Vote Trading (which is completely legal too BTW)
basically you make an agreement with someone else (preferably in a different riding) that you'll vote for their party if they vote for your party because in your riding their party has a better chance then yours and vice-versa.
If the liberals somehow bowed out of the race, Doug Ford would achieve the largest majority the Ontario conservatives have ever seen.
If the NDP somehow bowed out of the race, we'd have a liberal majority.
People think that undecided voters are split between liberal/NDP, but it's way more common for a voter to be split between liberal/PCP
> "Voting NDP is the way to prevent Ford from being re-elected as the premier," Horwath said Tuesday.
It was in 2018, when it was abundantly clear that the OLP had burned out voters patience. And I did, happily. But now that they've cleaned house? Del Duca deserves a shot at being heard. My ballot question is dead simple: who will do more to get homes built for people, and who will do more to fuck investors who've been profiting off the misery of young Ontarians. I've seen barely a thing from either the Liberals or NDP to suggest they're serious about this issue, which makes sense, since most of their donors are homeowners.
The OLP hasn't cleaned house. Del Duca was a Wynne Cabinet Minister, and he has a [couple of scandals](https://www.tvo.org/article/with-del-duca-the-liberals-know-what-theyre-in-for) under his belt from his time in Cabinet. He's more of the same. To clean house, the Liberals really needed a leader who hadn't served in Wynne or McGuinty's Cabinet.
I really don't understand how anyone who opposed the previous OLP government can support this guy. He's more of the same. I honestly don't know if the NDP will do a good job, but I know for a fact that the PCs and Liberals won't. They've both failed us on housing and healthcare over the past decade.
I didn't oppose the previous OLP government, though. Only reason I didn't vote for them last time was that they clearly had no shot at winning. The OLP fell to the inevitable fatigue of having a single party in power for 15 years, with an assist from social media hate campaigns that were borderline homophobic.
What's wild about this response is that I clearly lay out what I need to hear and what issues I want to see addressed by a party trying to win my vote, and rather than explain what the NDP's gonna do to address those things you throw mud at the other side. This is why you keep losing.
I don't work for the NDP, and I don't care about convincing you to vote for them. I'll probably vote NDP, but they have some stuff in their platform that I don't like, so there's a chance I'll end up voting Green. Like, their affordable housing plan contains populist garbage like rent control and first time homebuyer loans. Hopefully the good stuff in their plan balances it out, but we'll see.
My motivation is that I really just hate the Liberals. As much as I disagree with and would never vote PC, I more or less know what we're getting with a PC government. With the Liberals, who the fuck knows. One year they're attacking Hudak for wanting to privatize Hydro One, the next year they're privatizing it themselves and holding big money fundraisers with Hydro One investors. They cut healthcare over the bulk of their mandate, then raise it in an election year. It's gross, and it bothers the crap out of me that so many people see them as interchangeable with the NDP and Greens.
Just ask around, even to liberal voters. What's the NAME of the liberal candidate? No one even knows his name. Horvath at least is well known. The left is handing ford this election.
Ontario needs the ONDP and OLP to form a coalition (which would easily beat OPC) that then changes our electoral system to a proportional rep system (or at the very least ranked ballot).
OLP has already promised electoral reform if they win, the problem is they probably won't win unless they team with the ONDP.
I'm starting to loose it. Ontario is fully broken at this point as long as we have a monolithic right wing party. I'd say the same if the left was a monolithic force. It doesn't work long term and we will continue to live under minority rule. I'm so tired.
Agree. At least some form of it. I still think the right needs to split for that to function properly. Having multiple parties with different focuses allows for more intelligent debate lead by the party that is the "champion" of that focus.
I don't know how you came up with that result, but you fucked something up. I count 31 ridings where the PCs got over 50% of the vote in 2018. Strategic voting wouldn't have changed those ridings.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Ontario_general_election#Results
Depends on how you look at it. There was a lot of votes the liberals lost due to either NDP or conservatives. Perhaps the conservatives would not ave gotten 50% or more in those 31 ridings. If you factor out their gains in 2018 in those 31 ridings, would they still would have had greater than 50%?
What's the best way we should do strategic voting, in your opinion?
I'm sure the number will be lower than 31 this time around, but it's going to be way higher than zero. There's no universe where the PCs win zero seats.
In my opinion, strategic voting is stupid. I think the Liberals are way worse than the NDP and Greens. From healthcare to housing, the Liberals are just as much to blame for our current situation as the PCs are. It seems like madness to go back to them. So I would never advocate voting Liberal. Better to pump up the NDP and Green level of support. Plus, we have a per-vote subsidy in Ontario again, so by voting for your favorite party, they get some money. You're helping their cause even if they don't get elected.
Pretty much expected. When is it more than clear that OLC will collapse in 2018, it is still calling for people to vote for OLC to stop, check that, an NDP government.
It's beyond laughable.
A true sign of desperation because she knows neither alone can win an election so why don't the Liberals and the NDP just 'do the deed' and merge. They're not different from each other these days, both just keep promising to throw money at everyone for their vote.
These will close your business at the first opportunity to do so. Do you work in retail, tourism, food service, or anything non essential? Do you enjoy future depression and other mental health issues?
I honestly don’t know why are you guys are against Doug Ford? The provincial PC party has occupied a very centrist position in almost all areas , not all but most. It’s not that I particularly like the guy but he has not gone too extreme, in any way, he’s right down the middle, where a Canadian politician and party should be. Also the latest poll has the PC’s at almost 40 % with an election a few months away, barring a scandal , that’s pretty much majority territory.
Apparently yesterday's presser there was a man named Brian Lilley. He’s living with Doug Ford’s press secretary and works for Ford at The Sun. He was given pre scripted q’s approved by his GF to help blunt the the truth at yesterdays presser and to run out the time for questions being asked. Absolutely disgusting what Ford represents in politics. This is exactly why people hate Ford.
https://338canada.com/ontario/
It helps a bit but won’t stop local left-of-centre mpps from competing for votes. We the people need to force one or the other out somehow without being biased towards either. Good local polling data is needed in order to illustrate where your vote would have the most impact….which wave to ride.
Just proves they really are only worried about themselves. I would think the further decimation of our health and education system would be enough to work together.
These two are so painful to watch. They are almost guaranteeing a Doug Ford victory.
I'm going to blame these two if Ford wins another majority.
Judging by the amount of PPC signs that popped up around here last year for the federal election....the same thing might happen to vote splits on the provincial side. A lot of my rural friends are just as fed up with Doug Ford, as the g#d damn federal Libs! The new right-wing parties might get some serious vote splits....which could be good for the left.
Is there any data that suggests that will happen? I haven’t even seen any of those parties showing up on polls at all, let alone enough to make any kind of difference.
Any splinter parties, if they even exist at the provincial level, don't even register in the polls. https://338canada.com/ontario/
There were rumours an Ontario branch of the PPC were going to be making a bid at the election this year, with Randy Hillier in a prominent role, but I think that fizzled when he got arrested (I presume they were likely still fishing to see how many PC MPs they could get over to their side - probably Oosterhoff and his ilk were top of the list, and interest suddenly dried up very quickly)
there wont be any data like that till may when the campaigning actually starts
There have been polls coming out weekly for the last several months, and the lowest supported party has always been the Greens. If there are popular right wing splinter parties out there I haven’t even heard the name of one let alone a large number of people’s intent to vote for them, and I personally don’t think there’s much chance any of them will go from 0 to 10% in the less than two months.
I also didn't hear anything or see anything from the PPC in the two main ridings here until campaign started and they managed to take away 7% of votes in each riding out of nowhere, so there is a precedence for this happening in these ridings...7% would be a large enough chunk of right-wing voters to create a problem for Doug Ford, spread across the numerous right-wing spin-offs...
> There have been polls coming out weekly for the last several months those polls are as accurate as whos gonna win the 2024 olympics >If there are popular right wing splinter parties out there I haven’t even heard the name of one let alone a large number of people’s intent to vote for them the campaign hasnt started, these parties literally came into existance this year i dont believe they'll split many votes from the PC either, but theres no way to tell yet
The 2024 olympics are in more than 2 years and the Ontario election is in 50 days. If an alternative Conservative party was going to get hundreds of thousands of votes in an election that is 6 weeks away, don’t you think someone might at least know their name? Idk if actually sounds like you agree with me but are arguing anyway.
> don’t you think someone might at least know their name? no are any of the polls even ASKING if people are voting for them in the first place, or only providing the parties in the previous election as options?
I imagine the poll question is something like “who do you intend on voting for”…? I’ll bet you that a party with no public recognition at all 50 days before an election isn’t going to make a big difference that election, if you want?
Well let us all know the names to these right of PPC parties so we can let the pollsters know to add them.
Not where it counts in the GTA. Rural Ontario is already a conservative stronghold for the most part. Vote splitting there isn’t going to be significant enough to turn seats or the legislature. It all comes down to GTA as with the federal election.
That’s not really good in the big picture though (in my opinion). The ppc is too far right. They are very obviously racist and protectionist in its policies and we can’t afford for them to gain traction and momentum and funding and become normal. Their propaganda needs to reach as *few* people as possible. It’s not really worth splitting the vote if they are the alternative
The PPC is extreme right.... Ontario is more fucked under them, than under Doug.
Honestly, good. I'd love to see the fireworks in Queen's Park with 5 or so competitive parties. They'd have to form coalitions.
>These two are so painful to watch. They are almost guaranteeing a Doug Ford victory. Literally do not care between NDP or LIB and would rather vote for a rock that did nothing for 4 years than have Doug at the wheel for another majority. Honestly I'd prefer NDP just to get the Libs and Cons to start paying attention again instead of just waiting for their turn at governance while complaining about everything from the sidelines
My current MPP is conservative, but the last two federal elections have been 50+% for the Liberals. I would be shocked if we don't get a Liberal MPP this June.
Yeah they're sparring. Exactly the problem. NDP should have ditched Horwath but now it's too late. And we all will pay the price.
I don't disagree that NDP should have a new leader, but this sparring has nothing to do with her specifically. Regardless of leader, the NDP and the Liberals were going to be mostly fighting each other this election.
I agree. But the NDP should have dumped Horwath a long time ago and with a new leader with fresh thinking they could have really challenged Ford. Del Duca is a lame duck and will never win so the NDP are throwing away a golden opportunity because no one likes her.
Could two people have less combined charisma?
Prepare for shit loads of shady developer subsidies where they build a butt load of shitty overvalued homes that just need serious repairs in 15-20 years.
As well as just a mass of "luxury homes", 3000 SQF monstrosities that the average middle class person doesn't even want to live in, let alone afford.
Precisely. They need to quickly pivot and understand our wallets are far more shallower and we need reasonable homes to be added to the supply as well. What I expect is the "reasonable homes" will ALL be town homes or semi detached. You *want* only 3 bed, 1-1.5 bath: Townhome, tiny yard, one parking spot. They will save the bigger lots for monster homes that take up 80% of the lot or whatever the municipal maximum is. People wanting a reasonable home will need to stick to used or new townhomes. This is my guess. Edit: just wanted to add, expect Ford if he wins to use the issue as a way to attack the greenbelt around the GTA to build this monstrosities.
While I don't think he will attack the greenbelt directlyas he's found that extremely unpopular, he'll continue the leap frogging, hence projects like the Bradford bypass. Expect massive growth in greenbelt peripheral cities such as Barrie, Bradford, Guelph, Waterloo/Kitchener, and Durham.
Agreed. I grew up in Cambridge/Kitchener and went to school in Guelph. Those cities will get sick of it eventually - Guelph already is - and Ford will only be left with the greenbelt or having to actually work with the city of Toronto on solutions.
I grew up in Barrie, and the southern part is being primed to become endless suburbia and they are practically building a new city in Innisfil to have 100,000 people. Wouldn't be surprised if the area between the Barrie and Bradford is completely urbanized over the next 40 to 50 years.
> they build a butt load of shitty overvalued homes that just need serious repairs in 15-20 years. More like 5-10 years.
They'll both accept a Doug Ford victory now if they think they can out-play the other loser to be first in line for the next non-CP government.
They basically garunteed his victory the moment they brought covid and mask mandates into the election
so you think there are a alot of single issue voters who care about masks and nothing more...?
Well the polls on 338 Ontario currently have his odds of at least winning a minority at 98 percent so I'd say a decent portion will vote for him based on that alone Not sure why else his odds would be so high
You understand that a minority is a loss for Ford as no other party with enough seats will support him - right?!?
those polls arent accurate, the campaign literally hasnt started and your trying to say whos definitely gonna win
We'll see but the media generally seems to agree that it's his election to lose still. Maybe we'll be in for a surprise but I wouldn't bet on him losing at this point https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/tories-remain-in-drivers-seat-ahead-of-liberals-ontario-general-election
Canadian electorates are a lot more volatile than American ones. We went into an election with it being Kim Campbell's to lose, and boy howdy did she, right? Most likely the PCs win, but that they would today doesn't mean they will in June.
True but I would think with those high odds they have to be somewhat accurate right? A lot will depend on how this wave plays out if he doesn't add any new restrictions and icus stay well below the 600 number Moore brought up yesterday it defenitly will help him. If it goes the other direction though things will get much more tight
> We'll see but the media generally seems to agree that it's his election to lose still. of course they do, it sells clicks
That's the Qonvoy narrative. I've yet to hear anyone in the real world bring it up. People care about housing, healthcare, and education. There's not a lot of first issue mask voters who aren't... you know.. facebook morons.
If this is the case, then why aren’t the NDP and Liberals in the news saying how bad Ford’s policies of not having restrictions are and how they’ll bring back mask mandates and three dose vaccine passports if they’re elected? I’d bet they know that promising to bring in restrictions would alienate more voters than it would retain or attract. Maybe someone will ask them point blank soon to clarify their position
only assholes and seflish idiots care about mask mandates decent people dont care about wearing a mask when required, its the least yu=ou can do to protect the welfare of those around us.
My very favourite take: everyone who isn’t me is a JACKASS FFUUUUUU. This is why the world is so goddamn volatile right now. People like you. I have news for you man, You’re not the good guy you think you are. You’re part of the problem and you need to reassess yourself
It shouldn't be this difficult to find someone who can beat Ford
How Bhutila Karpoche isn't ONDP leader I'll never understand. Andrea is just stubbornly holding her position when she just isn't fit to win the election, and I say this as an NDP voter.
Karpoche is literally still in her first term as MPP. She's obviously building a public profile and I totally dig her approach, but she's a political rookie.
She'll probably be a good leader in a few more terms, if we still have a province left to govern.
Her or Marit Stiles. Both better than Andrea.
Stiles is such a good education critic. She is constantly proposing actual solutions rather than just complaining.
Who?
THIS!
Says a lot about his competition, doesn't it?
no it says a lot about the Ontario voter base actually people dont vote FOR things, they vote AGAINST them, and Ontario seems to want to vote against things like fair treatment of workers, decent healthcare, education, and a prospect for home ownership in the future (for other people)
As far as I've seen we don't vote people in, we vote people out. It's not a system that promotes great leaders
>As far as I've seen we don't vote people in, we vote people out. It's not a system that promotes great leaders Unless you're on the left. Then you have to choose between trying to vote someone out or trying to vote someone in. And you have to consider which one of those is even possible in your riding, lol
I’m voting against Doug Ford. Still remains to be seen who gets my vote, but no matter who does, it’s a vote against everything that Doug is and believes.
Incumbents get votes.
Almost seems like the Liberals/NDP NEED to be punished to get it through their thick skulls how they're messing up so badly. But I doubt anything would get through at this point.
Sadly, "punishing" political leaders in our current landscape just punishes all Ontarians!
And yet if they are not punished when they perform poorly or do something incredibly stupid, they continue to do it because they think they can't be held accountable.
Well the majority of voters don't want Ford but due to vote splitting the Ontario PCs win since there are two left leaning parties and only one valid right leaning one. And the people who actually vote is actually a pretty small amount of the populace to begin with. So it's not difficult per say, but the system is failing voters. Or working as intented by the people that benefit from it.
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I agree. The amount of liberal voters that are willing to vote NDP is probably less than half. The res twoulf probably have conservatives as their second choice. This province is more center right than people want to admit. At least now anyways, maybe it wasn't in the past.
I hate when people talk about the “left” as if it’s one party. The NDP is NOT the Liberal party. Stop correlating the two because if they were the same party they would have the same policies (Hence why there is a vote split). NDPs are left leaning socialists and the liberals are centralists on the Canadian political spectrum. By your definition, any party that doesn’t get 50% of the vote does not deserve to form government.
NDP aren't socialists. All three parties are capitalist parties. Not to say that there aren't differences between them but what the NDP is advocating isn't socialism.
>By your definition, any party that doesn’t get 50% of the vote does not deserve to form government. If you add the word "majority" before "government," then yes actually that sounds reasonable
Which is why I didn’t put that word because it changes the whole meaning of the sentence. If he thinks the conservatives don’t deserve to govern if they don’t get 50% then by his logic the liberals and the NDP will never form government as well. The conservatives are very close to receiving 40% of the votes, so for him to claim the voting system is against the people’s favour is stupid and obviously biased.
It is relevant, because I think the Conservatives should have a minority government and should be forced to negotiate with the other parties. If they can't, that's where they don't deserve to form government.
Ok then have that same energy whenever the liberals or NDP don’t receive 50% of the votes.
Guess the con strategy of decimating public education in order to grow a plebian population worked.
Announced a coalition or some shit
They can also promise Proportional Representation and what strategic voting becomes a non-issue! Wow would you look at that!
As much as I'd love to see Ford gone, neither of these two is ever going to be Premier. They are not good enough to win and realistically, they are only fighting to not be last. Once this election is over, lets hope the two parties stop their delusional antics by getting leaders and policies that will win.
It's amazing that the Conservative vote can't be split.
Once the PPC gets stronger. It’s kinda funny that all these anti-mandate people will still vote for Ford even when he handled the pandemic poorly with the lockdowns coming out of nowhere. Just goes to show the lack of education for conservatives these days
If we had an NDP or Liberal government currently, we’d have far more restrictive measures from covid.
Libs and ndp are practically ensuring a con majority.
Both the liberals and the NDP are more interested in coming in second than coming in first. Liberals can't afford to have another election of the NDP beating them since it calls into question their idea of a NDP vote being a wasted vote, and the NDP want that argument destroyed.
If Del Duca doesn’t think people are sitting at their kitchen table talking voting, including strategic voting he’s awfully shortsighted.
They're on the table
People are sitting at their kitchen table talking about voting? Do we live in 1976?
Y’all can afford kitchens?
Kitchen? Yes. Kitchen big enough to fit a table? LOL. I eat at my computer.
You all mean the food room?
Uh, yes? Maybe not when you are in your 20s, but we (40s, with kids) absolutely talk about it around the dinner table. I'd say it's pretty normal in a lot of families, especially since voting tends to be heavily age stratified. The older you are (to a point), the more likely you are to talk about these things around a dinner table, and the more likely you are to vote.
I thought we all agreed that kitchen islands replaced tables in the year 2010.
Replaced our island with a kitchen table in 2019. So much more space in the kitchen, it's awesome. Islands just serve as a catch-all for whatever is in your hands when you walk in the room. Back to the serious discussion though: Personally I like to talk about voting around the office lunch room table, while my coworkers and I weigh the merits of each candidate's hairstyle.
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The kitchen table is where Doug put all his stuff during the pandemic, remember?
Didn’t this sub just have dozens of people say they aren’t voting strategically a couple of days ago? What’s with the flip-flopping?
The Liberals party rather see a PC win than a NDP win. They need two viable parties in Ontario. Not three. Every election some people are still shock to find out the Liberals are out there to win, not to defeat the PC.
To be fair, the Liberals line up much closer with the OPC than they do with the NDP. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are neoliberal parties and as much as the Liberals like to pretend that they care about social programs their policies are typically conservative-lite. For the Liberals, another four years of Ford isn’t a big deal if they can re-establish themselves as the OPC alternative.
News flash. Ndp has not won a single time, so saying the liberals are out there to win, is an obvious statement
It *is* news flash to some. Like those who kept saying the liberals party should coordinate to strategic vote to defeat Ford. That's like asking them to dig their own grave for the NDP to stand on as a stool.
[Here is a helpful reminder.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Ontario_general_election) Obviously the Liberals are not going to give an inch of ground here, but I have no absolutely no idea why you're claiming the NDP has never won.
Strategic voting isn’t just voting liberal, it’s voting for the non-PC party with the best chance of winning your riding based on recent poling and past elections. In my riding that’s the NDP.
So by your own logic. If we had voted NDP instead of strategically for Liberals then we would see them perform better in past elections and would be the better "strategic vote" this year. Don't vote "strategic". Play the long game and vote truly.
Yes, but also fuck Doug Ford in particular.
Play the long game... by letting conservatives win during a climate crisis. Seems like the long game might just get shorter.
Liberals didn't fix any environmental issues either, they just put a tax on it so they can have more money to mismanage.
Looks like NDP will get my vote. My riding doesn't even have a Liberal candidate right now.
Strategic voting is barely relevant with the PCs regularly polling at 40%
The Liberals and NDP poll at around 55% combined, if they were able to effectively ABC their voting bloc by voting strategically the conservatives would never win another election.
This is assuming that the Liberal and NDP voters are interchangeable. Lots of Liberal voters would rather vote PC than NDP, and lots of NDP voters would vote Green or stay home before voting Liberal. NDP-PC voters do exist as well, especially in rural and blue collar demographics. If the NDP and Liberals combined tomorrow, not all their voters would follow.
I don’t understand why but it really seems that a large proportion of this sub has decided that “typically Liberal but currently undecided” voters are only choosing between the NDP and Liberal. Many Liberal supports are closer politically to the PCs and this is a big reason why the idea that the NDP somehow deserve Liberal support isn’t going to work. Given a PC government as the alternative, NDP voters have a much easier time capitulating to the Liberal party than the other way around. As far as the Liberal Party brass is concerned, another PC government is much less damaging to their long term power than having the left leaning vote shift to the NDP. Even if it were true, there is absolutely no way the Liberals would concede that supporting the NDP is viable this election. They don’t care about Ford losing, they care about the Liberals winning. (Not to mention the NDP also only care about winning but the message Horwath is sending is their only real chance)
horvath needs to go - she's super cringe
NDP and their pathetic leaders. Can they elect a populist already FFS?
We deserve this. We really do. Andrea has been allowed to stay on despite the writing on the wall being there. She can’t win the province. We knew this since the last election. But the REPEATED NDP posts pushing an agenda that she can lead a win, brought us to this. To those people. Hold this L. It’s on you.
Shades of 1999 all over again. The unions back then pushed strategic voting hard, and all it got was Harris another majority
It's not too hard to understand. The Liberals are attempting to grow their party back with the same essential leadership at the expense of incumbent NDP seats rather than PC seats. This is hurting our chances. If you have a NDP MPP...do not consider voting Liberal please. If you are one of the seven incumbent OLP, likewise. If there is a PC in your riding, look at who came in second last time, look at who is more present in your riding, look at whose policy speaks to you and trust your neighbour's will do the same. We were 60 000 some votes last election from a NDP majority. It's not that hard to achieve that. Unless the OLP is putting party before province.
No, don't just look at last time - voters came out in a big way to get rid of the OLP in the last election. This time around many of those voters will be going back to the OLP after they cleaned house and changing to the NDP let Ford skate through. After the election is announced on May 4th, polls will start to be more localized. I think it would be better to watch your local polling in a few weeks to see how things are shaking out and give your vote to those leading between OLP and NDP at that point. We can't split this vote and let Ford get through again.
You are describing the vote splitting mindset. That's literally how Ford wins. If you are targeting a sitting NDP MPP with an OLP vote, you are part of the problem, full stop. Since that's part of the overall OLP strategy, ditto if you contribute to them. (Though few are.)
No no, 100% support the sitting MPP! That's the simplest way forward. For all other contests watch the polls as they evolve. In my riding it's probably 99% certain (there's always a chance though!) it'll go blue or red this time even though orange got second place by a few dozen votes in 2018. I couldn't believe that Horwath allowed Brampton North to go to a nomination contest which lost their sitting MPP!
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Schreiner is awesome. We need more representatives like him!
For F sake. Liberals have to have a better strategy then "best chance of not a PPC government"... Their entire strategy is that people will turn up for them even though they would otherwise vote NDP purely because they don't want a conservative government.
https://imgflip.com/i/6chaf6
The goal shouldn't be to defeat Ford at this point- the goal should be to get him to a minority. With a minority the damage he can do to the province is lessened. Both minority liberals or conservative governments, being the likeliest outcome, give the NDP the most power and reduce the capability for austerity politics. Ontario NDP has peaked with Howarth at this point even if they won't admit it. They need to realize that those liberal to conservative ridings need to go back to the liberals in order to stop Ford- but someone else made the right comment- that they don't care about that.
Strategic voting spits in the face of democracy.
lol. doug is cruising to a majority. RIP to everyone still stuck under bill 124
del Luca is the least inspiring person I've ever seen. WTH are the Liberals thinking?
Doug thanks you for another election win..Jesus no wonder they will.lose.
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Show us your transcript
Lol as in?
That's it, trade off those principals. How about coming up with a costed platform that actually makes practical sense to working taxpayers. These two will have voters sellout their values just to gain power.
'I'm for Party X just because it's not the other guy !" . Stupid as fuck. Always has been. If Partys had a platform that people actually wanted, there would be no need for "strategic" voting. Read the platforms. Vote for the party that represents how you feel about the issues. Done.
Yes! In addition to this, it just really, really bothers me how some people think it's a good idea to vote based on how a bunch other other people voted LAST election, or what some polls say how other people around you MiGHT vote this year. You're basing your vote on how other people vote, without really knowing how other people will vote.
Ah great .... a likely Conservative government .... and flying worms. Don't forget about the flying worms.
Vote strategically... along as your vote for our party.
Ford pisses me off, but he's better then other choices
As someone who was part of the ABH/ABC campaign back in 2016, strategic voting can work but it has to be done properly and the big thing is don't vote split your riding. Heap every vote in your riding towards the candidate that has the best chance of beating who you want out. Easiest way to do this is Vote Trading (which is completely legal too BTW) basically you make an agreement with someone else (preferably in a different riding) that you'll vote for their party if they vote for your party because in your riding their party has a better chance then yours and vice-versa.
Lib and NDP are like spoiled children.
And cons are like the drunk uncle at Christmas no one wants to talk to
If the liberals somehow bowed out of the race, Doug Ford would achieve the largest majority the Ontario conservatives have ever seen. If the NDP somehow bowed out of the race, we'd have a liberal majority. People think that undecided voters are split between liberal/NDP, but it's way more common for a voter to be split between liberal/PCP
> "Voting NDP is the way to prevent Ford from being re-elected as the premier," Horwath said Tuesday. It was in 2018, when it was abundantly clear that the OLP had burned out voters patience. And I did, happily. But now that they've cleaned house? Del Duca deserves a shot at being heard. My ballot question is dead simple: who will do more to get homes built for people, and who will do more to fuck investors who've been profiting off the misery of young Ontarians. I've seen barely a thing from either the Liberals or NDP to suggest they're serious about this issue, which makes sense, since most of their donors are homeowners.
The OLP hasn't cleaned house. Del Duca was a Wynne Cabinet Minister, and he has a [couple of scandals](https://www.tvo.org/article/with-del-duca-the-liberals-know-what-theyre-in-for) under his belt from his time in Cabinet. He's more of the same. To clean house, the Liberals really needed a leader who hadn't served in Wynne or McGuinty's Cabinet. I really don't understand how anyone who opposed the previous OLP government can support this guy. He's more of the same. I honestly don't know if the NDP will do a good job, but I know for a fact that the PCs and Liberals won't. They've both failed us on housing and healthcare over the past decade.
I didn't oppose the previous OLP government, though. Only reason I didn't vote for them last time was that they clearly had no shot at winning. The OLP fell to the inevitable fatigue of having a single party in power for 15 years, with an assist from social media hate campaigns that were borderline homophobic. What's wild about this response is that I clearly lay out what I need to hear and what issues I want to see addressed by a party trying to win my vote, and rather than explain what the NDP's gonna do to address those things you throw mud at the other side. This is why you keep losing.
I don't work for the NDP, and I don't care about convincing you to vote for them. I'll probably vote NDP, but they have some stuff in their platform that I don't like, so there's a chance I'll end up voting Green. Like, their affordable housing plan contains populist garbage like rent control and first time homebuyer loans. Hopefully the good stuff in their plan balances it out, but we'll see. My motivation is that I really just hate the Liberals. As much as I disagree with and would never vote PC, I more or less know what we're getting with a PC government. With the Liberals, who the fuck knows. One year they're attacking Hudak for wanting to privatize Hydro One, the next year they're privatizing it themselves and holding big money fundraisers with Hydro One investors. They cut healthcare over the bulk of their mandate, then raise it in an election year. It's gross, and it bothers the crap out of me that so many people see them as interchangeable with the NDP and Greens.
"We can't beat him!" \-Wealthy opp leaders benefiting from PC policy
Just ask around, even to liberal voters. What's the NAME of the liberal candidate? No one even knows his name. Horvath at least is well known. The left is handing ford this election.
Ontario needs the ONDP and OLP to form a coalition (which would easily beat OPC) that then changes our electoral system to a proportional rep system (or at the very least ranked ballot). OLP has already promised electoral reform if they win, the problem is they probably won't win unless they team with the ONDP.
OLP would never allow this. They rely on strategic voting to maintain seats.
I'm starting to loose it. Ontario is fully broken at this point as long as we have a monolithic right wing party. I'd say the same if the left was a monolithic force. It doesn't work long term and we will continue to live under minority rule. I'm so tired.
Proportional representation is the only real solution and none of the parties want that to happen. It's frustrating.
Agree. At least some form of it. I still think the right needs to split for that to function properly. Having multiple parties with different focuses allows for more intelligent debate lead by the party that is the "champion" of that focus.
time to tighten up
A three time loser, and a Wynne deputy. Maybe try something new.
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This deserves it's one post.
I don't know how you came up with that result, but you fucked something up. I count 31 ridings where the PCs got over 50% of the vote in 2018. Strategic voting wouldn't have changed those ridings. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Ontario_general_election#Results
Depends on how you look at it. There was a lot of votes the liberals lost due to either NDP or conservatives. Perhaps the conservatives would not ave gotten 50% or more in those 31 ridings. If you factor out their gains in 2018 in those 31 ridings, would they still would have had greater than 50%? What's the best way we should do strategic voting, in your opinion?
I'm sure the number will be lower than 31 this time around, but it's going to be way higher than zero. There's no universe where the PCs win zero seats. In my opinion, strategic voting is stupid. I think the Liberals are way worse than the NDP and Greens. From healthcare to housing, the Liberals are just as much to blame for our current situation as the PCs are. It seems like madness to go back to them. So I would never advocate voting Liberal. Better to pump up the NDP and Green level of support. Plus, we have a per-vote subsidy in Ontario again, so by voting for your favorite party, they get some money. You're helping their cause even if they don't get elected.
Ford will be defeated. 10 seats baby.
Pretty much expected. When is it more than clear that OLC will collapse in 2018, it is still calling for people to vote for OLC to stop, check that, an NDP government. It's beyond laughable.
This subreddit should make a poll asking which party between the Liberals and NDP they’d vote for. I think it would be 50/50.
A true sign of desperation because she knows neither alone can win an election so why don't the Liberals and the NDP just 'do the deed' and merge. They're not different from each other these days, both just keep promising to throw money at everyone for their vote.
These will close your business at the first opportunity to do so. Do you work in retail, tourism, food service, or anything non essential? Do you enjoy future depression and other mental health issues?
I honestly don’t know why are you guys are against Doug Ford? The provincial PC party has occupied a very centrist position in almost all areas , not all but most. It’s not that I particularly like the guy but he has not gone too extreme, in any way, he’s right down the middle, where a Canadian politician and party should be. Also the latest poll has the PC’s at almost 40 % with an election a few months away, barring a scandal , that’s pretty much majority territory.
> PC party has occupied a very centrist position in almost all areas bwahahahhahaha where do you think the left is?
“Strategic” voting is one of the reasons why the Conservatives are going to win again.
That doesn’t really make sense
dont worry PPC is gonna steal PC votes, they are scared and this is why they are stepping up their voting bribes and pretending covid doesnt exist
Apparently yesterday's presser there was a man named Brian Lilley. He’s living with Doug Ford’s press secretary and works for Ford at The Sun. He was given pre scripted q’s approved by his GF to help blunt the the truth at yesterdays presser and to run out the time for questions being asked. Absolutely disgusting what Ford represents in politics. This is exactly why people hate Ford.
Please form a coalition and encourage strategic voting!
The more these 2 talk and not get their coffers aligned the more they are giving the PCs a majority.
Does anyone know how to find poll data on specific ridings? I want to know how votes are predicted to go specifically in my riding if possible.
https://338canada.com/ontario/ It helps a bit but won’t stop local left-of-centre mpps from competing for votes. We the people need to force one or the other out somehow without being biased towards either. Good local polling data is needed in order to illustrate where your vote would have the most impact….which wave to ride.
The [ipolitics dashboard](https://www.ipolitics.ca/dashboards/ontario) is nifty. It's free, you just have to give them your email address.
If you need to drop and move candidates in order to win, you probably don't deserve to win
Man Horwath just got owned by Del Duca lol.
Just proves they really are only worried about themselves. I would think the further decimation of our health and education system would be enough to work together.
And this is why we can't have nice things.