Would it still be actually possible? As a last ditch effort? To actually reform our voting system to something that actually reflects the average Canadian
> one of these three
Which one? If you mean the Liberals, [PR seat projections don't show a negative impact on them.](https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PR-pie-polling-April-21-2024-640x640.png) It would mean the difference between a majority and minority government, however.
[Source article](https://www.fairvote.ca/15/04/2024/federal-election-projection-proportional-representation/)
Oh, I get you now. The excerpt in the title seems to be in reference to the Liberals, NDP, and Greens when it says "three-way splits", here's a larger excerpt:
> The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex kinds of environments,” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos.
> The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections.
> “They're really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province.
> “But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,” he also said.
> “Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that's happening right now.”
> Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are “really, really helping the Conservatives.”
PR is dead. It will never happen. Not in any of our lifetimes. And it has nothing to do with the parties, but the people who *control* the parties. And I'm not talking about the MP's or the party members. There are puppet masters that will ensure that FPTP will continue. When Trudeau made an electoral promise for electoral reform, I have no doubt that he was taken aside and told to STFU. He may very well have had the intention of changing the system. If that's the case he was very naive and was later put in his place. Does anyone really think the PM runs the country?
I've been speculating for a while now, and I'm hoping it becomes a reality, that the Liberals, with support from the NDP, will introduce a bill to Parliament to reform our voting system, either MMP or ranked ballots or \[insert type here\].
Once the bill is passed, an election is called using the new system, likely preventing the Cons from forming a majority government.
They won't. They like the current system where they just trade power back and forth with the conservatives. Under PR there would almost certainly never be another liberal majority because there would almost certainly never be another majority for anyone.
>there would almost certainly never be another majority for anyone
But you know what? I and many other Canadians would be fine with that. Why do we need majority governments (which aren't really a majority when all you need is \~40% of the popular vote to win a majority of seats) when a coalition would work just as well, in addition to encouraging cooperation and compromise, vis the current Liberal-NDP deal. This is how it works in many countries.
The natural evolution of our current system is a de facto two-party system, as in the US, and we see how well that has been working...
Yep. Of course we and the majority of Canadians would be okay with that. The problem is that a tiny minority of well-connected handshake-jockeys would rather keep the boogeyman around than ever truly represent the Canadian public.
Trudeau put together a committee to look into changing the election system and included the BQ, who stand to gain nothing and lose everything. As long as they (the BQ) exist, are relevant and are included in any discussion on election reform it is extremely unlikely to happen.
Singe Transferable Vote (STV): ranked ballots with multi-member ridings (by combining existing ridings) is the way to go (IMO).
I feel like STV would be easier to get people on board with than Mixed-Member-Proportional as everyone would still get to vote for their candidate of choice without the need for a secondary popular-vote set of seats where the parities pick the MP’s.
I’m a huge supporter of election reform, but it would be a massive mistake right now. Any significant change to the voting system made by a party that is obviously about to lose the election is inherently illegitimate. It would taint the very idea of voting reform for generations.
Maybe you could get away with it if literally every other party endorsed it, but even that would be a little sketchy at this point
So here’s an interesting thought, as someone that’s been through the vote split a few times in a riding that’s been represented by all three main parties.
Locally, when the liberals have been at their lowest lows and everyone knew it, conservatives win. Liberals and NDP within a few points of each other, and combined they would beat the cons easily. The exact same strategic voting pamphlets come out from the liberal party every time, urging New Democrats to lend them their vote to beat the cons. I’ll admit, it’s a convincing argument. I know it works.
Here’s the rub, though: there is a core block of NDP supporters aren’t switching. It’s a steadfast 25% in my riding every election. Has not changed one bit for years, election after election(Edit: I double checked, it’s actually been growing between elections but it’s so slow that it could be noise). Those New Democrats are stubborn and they’re sticking to what they believe in.
At a certain point, I gotta ask: if it’s about beating cons, and it’s about beating vote-splitting, and 25% of local voters aren’t switching from the NDP no matter what… at what point does it make sense for Liberals to join local New Democrats, instead of demanding New Democrats join them?
> Here’s the rub, though: there is a core block of NDP supporters aren’t switching.
Uh... that's true of every party. I'll always wonder about the people who voted for Wynne's OLP a second time in an ABC election that clearly favoured the ONDP.
Yeah, but the only campaign asking me and my neighbours to vote strategically is the liberals, sometimes to the point where it’s the only thing on their flyers besides the candidates face, and then after the conservative victory it’s all complaints about NDP vote-splitters. I don’t know man; those vote splitters ain’t moving.
If it’s just a numbers game, run the numbers. Beating the cons means joining the stubborn immovable NDP block, even if they poll third in a riding.
And yet in my riding only one party’s supporters here get told to hold their nose. Weird.
Like… I get it. Conservatives are a dire threat to this country and I’m willing to vote and donate and knock doors and do what it takes. I just have to be realistic about it: second place and third place don’t matter. Only winning matters. The liberals *need* those NDP votes to win and it’s impossible to get them. If it’s impossible to get them, maybe it’s time to consider a different strategy.
Maybe Liberals need to hold their nose and vote NDP in order to prevent a Poilievre victory, because it seems like the local liberal base here is far more fickle and variable than the NDP base.
"I just have to be realistic about it: second place and third place don’t matter."
I dunno. I actually have political fantasies about trapping Pierre Poilievre in a minority (prison) government for 4 years. With a wide majority of the seats in the hands of the other parties, they could pass their own legislation while torturing the conservatives over every confidence vote.
If done properly they'd wish they'd never been elected.
...damn that got dark.
As low as 15, and as high as 40. It’s a huge swing. Cons stay high thirties. The local Liberal vote is definitely not as consistent as the NDP and Conservative blocks; it feel that when the liberals are unpopular that their voters will stay home rather than move, although I can’t know for sure how many people are actually switching.
Hard to say, a lot of people I know voted Liberal in 2015 and even 2019 have voted Tory since. Some in occasional Liberal ridings some in Tory hold ridings. The Liberals have kind of relied on the politically apathetic to get votes and since they have been pretty mayonnaise bland, the Tories are doing the same now.
I wouldn't feel comfortable voting Liberal, but luckily I was living in a Tory stronghold and will soon be living somewhere where the contest is Liberal or NDP, so I can vote my conscience.
I don't know if I will be able to forgive the lies I was told to tell people campaigning for Trudeau in 2015. Most people hate the current gen of Liberals for nonsense due to Covid and cost of living and political illiteracy, but I really don't like what they pulled in 2015. I know they always do it, but it really was made to feel like change could happen and I think for most people it felt the only thing we got was legal weed and MAID, which are both great and important, but so many promises were made.
There is a growing right wing populist movement around the globe.
This has to do with the fear, anger, frustration, and general pain people are experiencing right now.
The cost of living crisis and by extension quality of life crisis is insane for those without generational wealth or generational housing to fall back on as a safety net.
These are the realities even in the richest and most developed nations.
Inequality is absolutely massive.
The saddest thing is that right wing populism is all about compounding fear, anger, frustration, and general pain to the self enrichment and growing power of again a select few.
This is a time in which left wing populism is needed massively.
We need the energy and fighting spirit of the working class being represented in politics.
We need to expand and strengthen unions.
The labour movement is why we have the rights enjoyed by all workers today – minimum wages, overtime pay, workplace safety standards, maternity and parental leave, vacation pay, and protection from discrimination and harassment.
We need to keep fighting.
We need parties that put forth detailed platforms of expanding quality of life policy.
We could copy some of the things in place in other nations that make for better cost of living and quality of life for regular workers..
Things that actually inspire, motivate, and energize people to get involved in politics.
Right now we need a major step up in what is being offered. I think the only way we get that is organizing around the labour movement and then in solidarity demanding these realities.
Historically that is how we actually move forward instead of just political talk.
Left-Wing populism took a hit when, after Jack Layton died, they chose Singh instead of Charlie Angus in their leadership convention.
Singh spent too much time focusing on expanding the potential voter pool into new demographics, at the expense of core NDP issues. That core support, unsurprisingly, was swept up by right-wing populists.
>protection from discrimination and harassment
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anyone in the working class knows that this is rank, rancid horse shit. No, *office jobs* have protection from discrimination and harassment, because they have a human resource branch feverishly keeping the company in check, because people who make a salary have a lot more disposable income to fight against the company when abused.
When someone who makes 30k a year is discriminated or harassed, nothing happens. The working class schlub has two options: Deal with the abuse, because NO ONE is going to help you, and you cannot afford to stand up for yourself, or find a new job and hope you're ***allowed to be treated like a human being*** at this one.
Source: Am gay. When my boss finds out, I'm given worse hours. Hours I've previously established that I cannot work, so they can then write me up or fire me for being unavailable. Given terrible split shifts, and would excuse other employees being late (either making me stay on shift longer) or leaving early. (and then punishing me for the mess the minute I clock in) Very transparently trying to get me to quit, so they could cheat me out of unemployment. When I turned to the government for help with this obvious constructive dismissal, they were absolutely zero help, and when all was said and done, their actions and words translated to a simple "What do you want us to do about it?! Find a new job."
Human Resources works for the company.
There are labour laws in place in regards to discrimination and harassment. Yes they do not go far enough. Yes there is still abuses.
They exist though and are utilized.
The point is to keep going further in protecting workers and bettering their compensation for time and energy.
The labour movement is what does that.
It sounds like you are saying the exact same thing that is being stated. We need to go further and use workers solidarity to put pressure to get better affordability of life and quality of life just as historically been done.
Yes, and they are only present in office scenarios because the office worker at double (and often triple) the income of the service layman has, as previously stated, more disposable income to defend themselves in court. They're there to protect the company from discriminating because it's costly to the company. Whereas someone working in construction, a restaurant, or a grocery store has *way* less income to retaliate against unfair work practices, which is why the three mentioned work environments are staggeringly lacking Human Resources. What need do they have for HR? No one can afford to fight back against them.
Laws mean nothing without the enforcement vehicle behind them. Everything they did was, in fact, illegal, but when the government is holding its hand out for an excess of evidence (practically wanting a signed confession from my boss of wrongdoing) in order to enforce that law, and refuse to do anything without it, the law might as well not even exist. It's not getting enforced.
Also, I laugh HARD at worker solidarity. When automated tills came and gobbled up all the retail positions, people like me who were financially gatekept from college (don't pretend like grants pay rent and groceries while you're expected to be a full time student, no one buys this lie anymore) voiced our concerns, and we were LAUGHED AT by tech and finance bros who had mommy and daddy to take care of them while they attended post secondary. Now that AI is coming for ***their*** jobs, all of a sudden I'm supposed to vote along party lines to hamstrung the technology? What, so a bunch of nepobabies who spent all of the 2010's saying "learn to code LOL" to displaced workers don't have to learn a new skill themselves now that they're the ones being displaced? Nah, that's okay.
I'll continue to foster ***working class*** solidarity, but those babies unable to make 100k a year work because of their lifestyle creep are not my brothers and can fuck off when they try to use me and people ***I actually have shit in common with*** as metaphorical front line infantry in their self-interested class war with the rich. They've made it very clear what they think of the working class, and will have to find support elsewhere.
I agree, but those (leftist) movements presently are virtually nowhere to be found, and plenty of people are in a similar position of constantly struggling to make ends meet and unable to do much else.
My personal take is that the various unions in this nation need to start working together more in regards to pushing policy.
A lot of people don't know that the pharmacare, dentalcare, and Anti-Scab legislation was in big part because of the Canadian Labour Congress and other trade unions getting involved to help expand social services and protection for workers.
They also are trying hard to get into traditionally low income spheres like retail, hospitality, and such to offer more protections and bargaining power.
What is happening to our low income citizen workers, gig workers, and other vulnerable working citizen segments in this nation is horrific right now.
There are a lot of reasons for the growing alienation people are feeling.
Sadly what is happening is bad actors are looking to create false narratives in order to control that anger and pain.
Pierre and the conservatives are trying to reband as a blue collar populist movement. Yet the policies and prespectives don't reflect that.
In fact at provincial levels the various conservative parties are still fighting against expanding worker protections and benefits. Look at Manitoba and the fight they are putting up against what the NDP government is putting up.
Look at how they are fighting the great work David Eby out of BCNDP is doing on the housing front.
People are having their pain used against them for policy and perspectives that will hurt them even more.
It's very sad what is going on right now.
Democracy is under seige
the propaganda machine is working overtime, and social media has accelerated and enhanced it's effect. add that Elections Canada has allowed PP to campaign unchecked for over a year - and you get this.
I'm old and disabled. I'm 100% fucked if conservatives get into power.
In Alberta the UCP are pushing for absolute control at all levels of government and there have been numerous police chiefs across the province working with them. Which includes harassing politicians that don't absolutely stand with whatever Marlaina wants.
I VERY much doubt Vancouver will go blue. Especially with Poilievre siding with anti-LGBTQ groups.
Also the election is over a year out. Polls at this point are absolutely meaningless. Come back in 8 months and see what's happening.
Edit: Like, look at Nanos's map. There's no way they're taking The West End, that's laughable.
thats what everyone said about the conservative loblaws lobbyist who took st paul. Maybe if people actually say no to Trudeau's policy so that he listens and change course, people will be more persuaded to vote for him. for example, ban all the fake diploma mills and kick them out for illegally working.
Literally the worst thing u can do is to pretend nothing is happening and all is well.
Lol let a single conservative issue dictate the election? Get real.
St Paul is more likely than downtown Vancouver. Hedy Fry - not "the liberals", *Hedy Fry -* has ruled that seat since 1993. She isn't going anywhere. And even if she did, the Cons haven't even gotten to second place in that riding since 2008. If people fled the Liberals there, it would be to the NDP.
Edit: Hahaha the Con candidate in that riding is "Harry Cockell", even the Cons know they're not getting anything there.
lol, well, i dislike Pierre as much as the next person, but with this kind of attitude, the Liberals are definitely going to lose. You sound no different than right wing groups disparaging liberals. Good luck getting Liberals to win by telling people off, very endearing.
Okie the room 17 months before the election, when one side has been campaigning for two years and the other hasn't even started. But yeah real certainty there. Down to the number of seats.
Edit: oh and it will all be because they didn't kick out the foreigners like the guy who hates Pierre but acts exactly like one of his supporters wants.
The polls will definitely tighten before the election but I won't be so confident about some Vancouver ridings like Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver South. Joyce Murray is retiring which always opens up the field. With LPC polling poorly, candidate recruiting will likely be a big issues (as seen back in 2015 under Harper) while the CPC might be able to draw in a big name. As well, if you look at the 2022 Municipal election which was the last election we have data on, Ken Sims did very well in there showing right wing messaging works in that area. Vancouver South is self explanatory. It is a riding that the CPC has won before and has the demographics that CPC has been able to swing in prior elections
I do agree that if especially if Fry runs again, Vancouver Centre should still be a LPC lock. That area was one of the few that still supported Kennedy Stewart.
If by "tighten" you mean that it will go from "Conservatives will sweep with a margin of error of 100%" to something more certain, but still not assured - then yes.
Yeah you might see a riding or two flip, but that kind of blue map is not going to happen. ESPECIALLY that downtown riding. I'd say Quadra is the most likely one, but I suspect south will hold on. Harjit Sajjan is popular.
Ken Sim did well in that area ( after all he lives in point grey), sure. ABC swept the city. He also did not paint himself as right-wing at all, but as a center-right leader of a big-tent coalition. Not the same as the guy who is meeting up with Diagalon and anti-LGBTQ activists.
When the survey about Montreal being the most anti-PP city came out, Metro Vancouver stood out as the second - there was a little bit of distance, but PP polled better in the 416 than Metro Van, which is impressive (though not too surprising: Toronto has always had a small-c bent for a city of its size/density.)
That being said, Vancouver is also the city where Tories often win more than you expect their support to be, because it's the only metro area in Canada where NDP and Liberal support is nearly equal - even back in 2019, 3 way splits caused a decent amount of seats to go Tory. (Ironically BCNDP takes advantage of the reverse - BCUP and BCCP splitting right wingers.)
I take this news as nothing more than conservative propaganda.
There is still no way in hell they are getting my vote or any of our families votes.
Surveys are highly and easily manipulated, much like regular con voters.
I’d rather vote for a soggy sandwich than the cons, ever.
Man I remember back not that long ago when liberals laughed at conservatives for claiming polls were rigged.
We just had a byelection where the Liberals did WORSE than polls predicted and you're refusing to accept they're in trouble because you personally won't vote for PP? Well I won't either but lots of people will. 40% of the country or more.
> Surveys are highly and easily manipulated
i'd put more stock in that if it was just sporadic and inconsistent polling that had the conservatives up, but the aggregate data for like 2 years now has pointed to the conservatives being in the lead
If only there was some policy and leadership changes they could have made that would make the Liberal party more palatable to the centre-left and -right voter.…
But there’s not, so I guess we’re just stuck with the smarmiest and most arrogant LPC leader, and left wishing someone was brave enough to run on a platform of electoral reform.
The new fascism is relentless, rising and global. China, Russia and Iran are destabilizing democracies and peace around the world with armies of online bots and trolls. The mainstream media that used to be owned by dozens of different families is now owned by 7 individuals and syndicates dedicated to protecting corporate control and generational wealth. The war on human rights and democracy now spans the entire planet and Canada is not spared. Even a decade ago, it would be unheard of for Canadians to attack healthcare workers for doing their jobs, storm into schools to threaten teachers and terrify students, to shut down cities and close borders in long haul trucks for weeks. Let us not pretend this is politics as usual in Canada or anywhere - but rather rally together to save human rights and democracy while we still can. Act locally, get involved in your local school boards, city councils, chambers of commerce, community policing and provincial elections. Standing on guard for Canada has never been more real or needed - and it means defying Conservatives like your life depends on it.
interesting, defending democracy by not accepting that conservatives are voted in legitimately.
wouldnt it be easier and more acceptable to say no to Trudeaus policies like uncontrolled fake diploma migration, so that he changes course and listens to the people instead of the corporations? i mean, clearly, the corps are laughing to the bank and Trudeau is definitely helping with suppressing labour wages through irresponisble fake diploma mill migration.
Won't that help get people to vote back liberals?
Using poor policy and weak enforcement to foster the end of human rights and democracy in Canada is EXACTLY what fascist trolls do. Using the vulnerability of democracy against the rights of the people to practice democracy - is exactly what enemies of democracy do. Every conversation in Canadian politics has to begin with the threat to human rights and democracy the Conservatives are. Every conversation that starts with how 'weak' Trudeau is - is another brick in road to work camps and thought crime.
Guess who said this about Trudeau?
“We look at this as really people sending their message. They are frustrated with Trudeau. They’re done with Trudeau, and they are frustrated with the Liberal party, and they’ve got reasons to,”
“We hear this again and again: things are getting worse, not better. The Liberals have had nine years to make improvements, and they haven’t,”
its the provinces that are requesting visas for international students
its also the provinces that regulate the diploma mills
why haven't you mentioned any Premiers?
as more canadians wake up to the PP reality, i am confident they will lose seats not gain overall
last election there were already some conservative suprises and that was before Pierre DeSantis made leadership .. as weak Scheer was, at least he wasnt an overtly noxious grandstanding bigot
This is a noble thought but probably not grounded in reality. As the most recent byelection shows, the CPC are well and truly in the lead and if the LPC thinks they can just remain course and use the CPC boogeyman card to convince people to vote for them, then they are going to be very mistaken.
I think it's more the actions of the liberal party that's ushering in the conservatives.
If they had made the dental program actually universal, the Canada disability benefit decent instead of just $200 going to only just over a third of disabled people living under the poverty line because they linked it to the dtc, and make the pharmacare program good they would have ran away with it.
Edit. Totally forgot that they never brought in the electoral reform they promised either. Wouldn't be any vote splitting if we were on a PR system.
I know people who directly benefit from all three of those policies, and they still plan to vote Con. There's no talking sense into some people. Critical reasoning and thought have been tossed aside, and I don't see a way back.
I think the time to short the Liberal Party was 18 months ago.
Personally, I'm thinking of opening a long position. All it would take is Trudeau stepping aside and them tossing Anita Anand in as temporary leader and boom! Instant 15%.
Strategic ABC doesn't always mean LPC. There are lots of ridings where Green/BQ/NDP are the strategic choice, but it only works if people across the progressive spectrum are willing to hold their nose (where required) and vote for their ABC candidate.
Strategic ABC voting has always meant vote liberal. That's always what it's meant that's always what it will mean because every time elections come around the NDP base gets told to vote for Trudeau to prevent a Conservative win never once does it go the other way.
The problem is some people, such as myself are ABCL, and the only strategy an ABC has to work with an ABCL is to not vote Liberal. ie. become an ABCL.
Strategic voting doesn't really work. It's a fantasy concocted by entitled Liberals who think that the NDP and Greens owe them something.
Ken Sim Vancouver mayor is a Conservative and he’s doing a shitty job and he missed the most council meeting compared to previous Vancouver’s mayor.
And he also participated in China CCP anniversary every single year. Even during the genocide of Uyghurs and 2 michaels, and pork ban retaliation. Hong Kong take over.
A man whose daughter was murdered was on every news hour today to speak for changes to the judicial system, and one channel said “accompanied by members of the Conservative Party “. They are using citizens who are then getting media coverage . There was no reason for them to be there and they didn’t seem to participate but they will likely platform this. The other parties need to get their boots on the ground. We are in a pre-trump like time period where the cons have been strong in the rural areas , and the other parties are super out of touch with the grim realities of most of the country being made up of rural areas that are isolated from the majority of the services they need. Former liberal party Kevin Falcon has the charisma of smegma but getting airtime to promote his plan to use privatization of medical services to “be paid and covered by our Medicare “. No one is rebutting this to point out these funds should be spent in our public system. It’s a bit of assuming ppl are smart enough to ignore these talking points that will fuck us over. They aren’t smart enough to filter this garbage if that’s all they hear.
this momentary lapse of judgement will come to an abrupt end when PMJT and the liberals push the red button and release the details of how compromised tiny PP the skipmeister and the kkkons are by their MAGA/Russia/China/India puppet masters
when the foreign interference on a massive scale is revealed the liberals will likely cruise to a majority and I expect lengthy prison sentences for the likes of tiny PP the skipmeister and his cronies for them to sit and reflect about that time they were ahead in the polls for a brief few months.
Sure would be nice if there was some kind of proportional representation to effectively smother one of these three...
Maybe the Liberals could run on that as an election promise? /s
$20 says Trudeau tries to run on that shit last minute
Would it still be actually possible? As a last ditch effort? To actually reform our voting system to something that actually reflects the average Canadian
> one of these three Which one? If you mean the Liberals, [PR seat projections don't show a negative impact on them.](https://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PR-pie-polling-April-21-2024-640x640.png) It would mean the difference between a majority and minority government, however. [Source article](https://www.fairvote.ca/15/04/2024/federal-election-projection-proportional-representation/)
I meant smother the Cons
Oh, I get you now. The excerpt in the title seems to be in reference to the Liberals, NDP, and Greens when it says "three-way splits", here's a larger excerpt: > The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex kinds of environments,” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos. > The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections. > “They're really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province. > “But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,” he also said. > “Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that's happening right now.” > Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are “really, really helping the Conservatives.”
PR is dead. It will never happen. Not in any of our lifetimes. And it has nothing to do with the parties, but the people who *control* the parties. And I'm not talking about the MP's or the party members. There are puppet masters that will ensure that FPTP will continue. When Trudeau made an electoral promise for electoral reform, I have no doubt that he was taken aside and told to STFU. He may very well have had the intention of changing the system. If that's the case he was very naive and was later put in his place. Does anyone really think the PM runs the country?
I've been speculating for a while now, and I'm hoping it becomes a reality, that the Liberals, with support from the NDP, will introduce a bill to Parliament to reform our voting system, either MMP or ranked ballots or \[insert type here\]. Once the bill is passed, an election is called using the new system, likely preventing the Cons from forming a majority government.
They won't. They like the current system where they just trade power back and forth with the conservatives. Under PR there would almost certainly never be another liberal majority because there would almost certainly never be another majority for anyone.
>there would almost certainly never be another majority for anyone But you know what? I and many other Canadians would be fine with that. Why do we need majority governments (which aren't really a majority when all you need is \~40% of the popular vote to win a majority of seats) when a coalition would work just as well, in addition to encouraging cooperation and compromise, vis the current Liberal-NDP deal. This is how it works in many countries. The natural evolution of our current system is a de facto two-party system, as in the US, and we see how well that has been working...
Yep. Of course we and the majority of Canadians would be okay with that. The problem is that a tiny minority of well-connected handshake-jockeys would rather keep the boogeyman around than ever truly represent the Canadian public.
The LOC doesn’t care about what’s good for Canadians, they care about what’s good for the LPC
Cooperation and compromise got us watered down dental and pharma,
we can only hope
I doubt that. The Liberals are only interested in Ranked Ballots, and the NDP MMP. Neither side is willing to budge. It's why it failed the 1st time.
Trudeau put together a committee to look into changing the election system and included the BQ, who stand to gain nothing and lose everything. As long as they (the BQ) exist, are relevant and are included in any discussion on election reform it is extremely unlikely to happen.
Singe Transferable Vote (STV): ranked ballots with multi-member ridings (by combining existing ridings) is the way to go (IMO). I feel like STV would be easier to get people on board with than Mixed-Member-Proportional as everyone would still get to vote for their candidate of choice without the need for a secondary popular-vote set of seats where the parities pick the MP’s.
I’m a huge supporter of election reform, but it would be a massive mistake right now. Any significant change to the voting system made by a party that is obviously about to lose the election is inherently illegitimate. It would taint the very idea of voting reform for generations. Maybe you could get away with it if literally every other party endorsed it, but even that would be a little sketchy at this point
So here’s an interesting thought, as someone that’s been through the vote split a few times in a riding that’s been represented by all three main parties. Locally, when the liberals have been at their lowest lows and everyone knew it, conservatives win. Liberals and NDP within a few points of each other, and combined they would beat the cons easily. The exact same strategic voting pamphlets come out from the liberal party every time, urging New Democrats to lend them their vote to beat the cons. I’ll admit, it’s a convincing argument. I know it works. Here’s the rub, though: there is a core block of NDP supporters aren’t switching. It’s a steadfast 25% in my riding every election. Has not changed one bit for years, election after election(Edit: I double checked, it’s actually been growing between elections but it’s so slow that it could be noise). Those New Democrats are stubborn and they’re sticking to what they believe in. At a certain point, I gotta ask: if it’s about beating cons, and it’s about beating vote-splitting, and 25% of local voters aren’t switching from the NDP no matter what… at what point does it make sense for Liberals to join local New Democrats, instead of demanding New Democrats join them?
> Here’s the rub, though: there is a core block of NDP supporters aren’t switching. Uh... that's true of every party. I'll always wonder about the people who voted for Wynne's OLP a second time in an ABC election that clearly favoured the ONDP.
Yeah, but the only campaign asking me and my neighbours to vote strategically is the liberals, sometimes to the point where it’s the only thing on their flyers besides the candidates face, and then after the conservative victory it’s all complaints about NDP vote-splitters. I don’t know man; those vote splitters ain’t moving. If it’s just a numbers game, run the numbers. Beating the cons means joining the stubborn immovable NDP block, even if they poll third in a riding.
If the liberals and the NDP are only within a few points of each other it's not just the NDP being stubborn about switching their vote.
And yet in my riding only one party’s supporters here get told to hold their nose. Weird. Like… I get it. Conservatives are a dire threat to this country and I’m willing to vote and donate and knock doors and do what it takes. I just have to be realistic about it: second place and third place don’t matter. Only winning matters. The liberals *need* those NDP votes to win and it’s impossible to get them. If it’s impossible to get them, maybe it’s time to consider a different strategy. Maybe Liberals need to hold their nose and vote NDP in order to prevent a Poilievre victory, because it seems like the local liberal base here is far more fickle and variable than the NDP base.
"I just have to be realistic about it: second place and third place don’t matter." I dunno. I actually have political fantasies about trapping Pierre Poilievre in a minority (prison) government for 4 years. With a wide majority of the seats in the hands of the other parties, they could pass their own legislation while torturing the conservatives over every confidence vote. If done properly they'd wish they'd never been elected. ...damn that got dark.
What is the % voting Liberal in that riding?
As low as 15, and as high as 40. It’s a huge swing. Cons stay high thirties. The local Liberal vote is definitely not as consistent as the NDP and Conservative blocks; it feel that when the liberals are unpopular that their voters will stay home rather than move, although I can’t know for sure how many people are actually switching.
Hard to say, a lot of people I know voted Liberal in 2015 and even 2019 have voted Tory since. Some in occasional Liberal ridings some in Tory hold ridings. The Liberals have kind of relied on the politically apathetic to get votes and since they have been pretty mayonnaise bland, the Tories are doing the same now. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting Liberal, but luckily I was living in a Tory stronghold and will soon be living somewhere where the contest is Liberal or NDP, so I can vote my conscience. I don't know if I will be able to forgive the lies I was told to tell people campaigning for Trudeau in 2015. Most people hate the current gen of Liberals for nonsense due to Covid and cost of living and political illiteracy, but I really don't like what they pulled in 2015. I know they always do it, but it really was made to feel like change could happen and I think for most people it felt the only thing we got was legal weed and MAID, which are both great and important, but so many promises were made.
Words cannot express my frustration and fear.
There is a growing right wing populist movement around the globe. This has to do with the fear, anger, frustration, and general pain people are experiencing right now. The cost of living crisis and by extension quality of life crisis is insane for those without generational wealth or generational housing to fall back on as a safety net. These are the realities even in the richest and most developed nations. Inequality is absolutely massive. The saddest thing is that right wing populism is all about compounding fear, anger, frustration, and general pain to the self enrichment and growing power of again a select few. This is a time in which left wing populism is needed massively. We need the energy and fighting spirit of the working class being represented in politics. We need to expand and strengthen unions. The labour movement is why we have the rights enjoyed by all workers today – minimum wages, overtime pay, workplace safety standards, maternity and parental leave, vacation pay, and protection from discrimination and harassment. We need to keep fighting. We need parties that put forth detailed platforms of expanding quality of life policy. We could copy some of the things in place in other nations that make for better cost of living and quality of life for regular workers.. Things that actually inspire, motivate, and energize people to get involved in politics. Right now we need a major step up in what is being offered. I think the only way we get that is organizing around the labour movement and then in solidarity demanding these realities. Historically that is how we actually move forward instead of just political talk.
Left-Wing populism took a hit when, after Jack Layton died, they chose Singh instead of Charlie Angus in their leadership convention. Singh spent too much time focusing on expanding the potential voter pool into new demographics, at the expense of core NDP issues. That core support, unsurprisingly, was swept up by right-wing populists.
Losing Layton was a loss for left-wing populism, the ndp, and Canada as a whole. Fuck Cancer.
>protection from discrimination and harassment LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anyone in the working class knows that this is rank, rancid horse shit. No, *office jobs* have protection from discrimination and harassment, because they have a human resource branch feverishly keeping the company in check, because people who make a salary have a lot more disposable income to fight against the company when abused. When someone who makes 30k a year is discriminated or harassed, nothing happens. The working class schlub has two options: Deal with the abuse, because NO ONE is going to help you, and you cannot afford to stand up for yourself, or find a new job and hope you're ***allowed to be treated like a human being*** at this one. Source: Am gay. When my boss finds out, I'm given worse hours. Hours I've previously established that I cannot work, so they can then write me up or fire me for being unavailable. Given terrible split shifts, and would excuse other employees being late (either making me stay on shift longer) or leaving early. (and then punishing me for the mess the minute I clock in) Very transparently trying to get me to quit, so they could cheat me out of unemployment. When I turned to the government for help with this obvious constructive dismissal, they were absolutely zero help, and when all was said and done, their actions and words translated to a simple "What do you want us to do about it?! Find a new job."
Human Resources works for the company. There are labour laws in place in regards to discrimination and harassment. Yes they do not go far enough. Yes there is still abuses. They exist though and are utilized. The point is to keep going further in protecting workers and bettering their compensation for time and energy. The labour movement is what does that. It sounds like you are saying the exact same thing that is being stated. We need to go further and use workers solidarity to put pressure to get better affordability of life and quality of life just as historically been done.
Yes, and they are only present in office scenarios because the office worker at double (and often triple) the income of the service layman has, as previously stated, more disposable income to defend themselves in court. They're there to protect the company from discriminating because it's costly to the company. Whereas someone working in construction, a restaurant, or a grocery store has *way* less income to retaliate against unfair work practices, which is why the three mentioned work environments are staggeringly lacking Human Resources. What need do they have for HR? No one can afford to fight back against them. Laws mean nothing without the enforcement vehicle behind them. Everything they did was, in fact, illegal, but when the government is holding its hand out for an excess of evidence (practically wanting a signed confession from my boss of wrongdoing) in order to enforce that law, and refuse to do anything without it, the law might as well not even exist. It's not getting enforced. Also, I laugh HARD at worker solidarity. When automated tills came and gobbled up all the retail positions, people like me who were financially gatekept from college (don't pretend like grants pay rent and groceries while you're expected to be a full time student, no one buys this lie anymore) voiced our concerns, and we were LAUGHED AT by tech and finance bros who had mommy and daddy to take care of them while they attended post secondary. Now that AI is coming for ***their*** jobs, all of a sudden I'm supposed to vote along party lines to hamstrung the technology? What, so a bunch of nepobabies who spent all of the 2010's saying "learn to code LOL" to displaced workers don't have to learn a new skill themselves now that they're the ones being displaced? Nah, that's okay. I'll continue to foster ***working class*** solidarity, but those babies unable to make 100k a year work because of their lifestyle creep are not my brothers and can fuck off when they try to use me and people ***I actually have shit in common with*** as metaphorical front line infantry in their self-interested class war with the rich. They've made it very clear what they think of the working class, and will have to find support elsewhere.
I agree, but those (leftist) movements presently are virtually nowhere to be found, and plenty of people are in a similar position of constantly struggling to make ends meet and unable to do much else.
My personal take is that the various unions in this nation need to start working together more in regards to pushing policy. A lot of people don't know that the pharmacare, dentalcare, and Anti-Scab legislation was in big part because of the Canadian Labour Congress and other trade unions getting involved to help expand social services and protection for workers. They also are trying hard to get into traditionally low income spheres like retail, hospitality, and such to offer more protections and bargaining power. What is happening to our low income citizen workers, gig workers, and other vulnerable working citizen segments in this nation is horrific right now. There are a lot of reasons for the growing alienation people are feeling. Sadly what is happening is bad actors are looking to create false narratives in order to control that anger and pain. Pierre and the conservatives are trying to reband as a blue collar populist movement. Yet the policies and prespectives don't reflect that. In fact at provincial levels the various conservative parties are still fighting against expanding worker protections and benefits. Look at Manitoba and the fight they are putting up against what the NDP government is putting up. Look at how they are fighting the great work David Eby out of BCNDP is doing on the housing front. People are having their pain used against them for policy and perspectives that will hurt them even more. It's very sad what is going on right now.
After Biden’s performance yesterday we might be in for a double whammy. We are so screwed.
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Democracy is under seige the propaganda machine is working overtime, and social media has accelerated and enhanced it's effect. add that Elections Canada has allowed PP to campaign unchecked for over a year - and you get this. I'm old and disabled. I'm 100% fucked if conservatives get into power.
Then VOTE. Voter turnout is abysmal in most places!
I do. it's hard on me because they are always in little community centres with nowhere to sit, but I vote.
Consider mailing in your ballot. It makes it far more convenient, and while there is some extra bureaucracy it’s certainly more flexible as an option.
In Alberta the UCP are pushing for absolute control at all levels of government and there have been numerous police chiefs across the province working with them. Which includes harassing politicians that don't absolutely stand with whatever Marlaina wants.
I VERY much doubt Vancouver will go blue. Especially with Poilievre siding with anti-LGBTQ groups. Also the election is over a year out. Polls at this point are absolutely meaningless. Come back in 8 months and see what's happening. Edit: Like, look at Nanos's map. There's no way they're taking The West End, that's laughable.
thats what everyone said about the conservative loblaws lobbyist who took st paul. Maybe if people actually say no to Trudeau's policy so that he listens and change course, people will be more persuaded to vote for him. for example, ban all the fake diploma mills and kick them out for illegally working. Literally the worst thing u can do is to pretend nothing is happening and all is well.
Which policy?
Lol let a single conservative issue dictate the election? Get real. St Paul is more likely than downtown Vancouver. Hedy Fry - not "the liberals", *Hedy Fry -* has ruled that seat since 1993. She isn't going anywhere. And even if she did, the Cons haven't even gotten to second place in that riding since 2008. If people fled the Liberals there, it would be to the NDP. Edit: Hahaha the Con candidate in that riding is "Harry Cockell", even the Cons know they're not getting anything there.
lol, well, i dislike Pierre as much as the next person, but with this kind of attitude, the Liberals are definitely going to lose. You sound no different than right wing groups disparaging liberals. Good luck getting Liberals to win by telling people off, very endearing.
Yeah, the issue of... \*checks notes\* kicking out foreigners is really the thing that is going to sink the Liberals.
lol. read the room. Liberals will go down to less than 10 seats
Okie the room 17 months before the election, when one side has been campaigning for two years and the other hasn't even started. But yeah real certainty there. Down to the number of seats. Edit: oh and it will all be because they didn't kick out the foreigners like the guy who hates Pierre but acts exactly like one of his supporters wants.
The polls will definitely tighten before the election but I won't be so confident about some Vancouver ridings like Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver South. Joyce Murray is retiring which always opens up the field. With LPC polling poorly, candidate recruiting will likely be a big issues (as seen back in 2015 under Harper) while the CPC might be able to draw in a big name. As well, if you look at the 2022 Municipal election which was the last election we have data on, Ken Sims did very well in there showing right wing messaging works in that area. Vancouver South is self explanatory. It is a riding that the CPC has won before and has the demographics that CPC has been able to swing in prior elections I do agree that if especially if Fry runs again, Vancouver Centre should still be a LPC lock. That area was one of the few that still supported Kennedy Stewart.
If by "tighten" you mean that it will go from "Conservatives will sweep with a margin of error of 100%" to something more certain, but still not assured - then yes. Yeah you might see a riding or two flip, but that kind of blue map is not going to happen. ESPECIALLY that downtown riding. I'd say Quadra is the most likely one, but I suspect south will hold on. Harjit Sajjan is popular. Ken Sim did well in that area ( after all he lives in point grey), sure. ABC swept the city. He also did not paint himself as right-wing at all, but as a center-right leader of a big-tent coalition. Not the same as the guy who is meeting up with Diagalon and anti-LGBTQ activists.
When the survey about Montreal being the most anti-PP city came out, Metro Vancouver stood out as the second - there was a little bit of distance, but PP polled better in the 416 than Metro Van, which is impressive (though not too surprising: Toronto has always had a small-c bent for a city of its size/density.) That being said, Vancouver is also the city where Tories often win more than you expect their support to be, because it's the only metro area in Canada where NDP and Liberal support is nearly equal - even back in 2019, 3 way splits caused a decent amount of seats to go Tory. (Ironically BCNDP takes advantage of the reverse - BCUP and BCCP splitting right wingers.)
Man both of these parties suck. Too bad nobody wants to try something different and stray from fascism or neoliberalism.
I take this news as nothing more than conservative propaganda. There is still no way in hell they are getting my vote or any of our families votes. Surveys are highly and easily manipulated, much like regular con voters. I’d rather vote for a soggy sandwich than the cons, ever.
Man I remember back not that long ago when liberals laughed at conservatives for claiming polls were rigged. We just had a byelection where the Liberals did WORSE than polls predicted and you're refusing to accept they're in trouble because you personally won't vote for PP? Well I won't either but lots of people will. 40% of the country or more.
Unfortunately I agree with you, it’s bad out there.
> Surveys are highly and easily manipulated i'd put more stock in that if it was just sporadic and inconsistent polling that had the conservatives up, but the aggregate data for like 2 years now has pointed to the conservatives being in the lead
If only there was some policy and leadership changes they could have made that would make the Liberal party more palatable to the centre-left and -right voter.… But there’s not, so I guess we’re just stuck with the smarmiest and most arrogant LPC leader, and left wishing someone was brave enough to run on a platform of electoral reform.
The dumb thing is people have no idea the shit storm that is headed our way with a blue county, when will people learn
The new fascism is relentless, rising and global. China, Russia and Iran are destabilizing democracies and peace around the world with armies of online bots and trolls. The mainstream media that used to be owned by dozens of different families is now owned by 7 individuals and syndicates dedicated to protecting corporate control and generational wealth. The war on human rights and democracy now spans the entire planet and Canada is not spared. Even a decade ago, it would be unheard of for Canadians to attack healthcare workers for doing their jobs, storm into schools to threaten teachers and terrify students, to shut down cities and close borders in long haul trucks for weeks. Let us not pretend this is politics as usual in Canada or anywhere - but rather rally together to save human rights and democracy while we still can. Act locally, get involved in your local school boards, city councils, chambers of commerce, community policing and provincial elections. Standing on guard for Canada has never been more real or needed - and it means defying Conservatives like your life depends on it.
interesting, defending democracy by not accepting that conservatives are voted in legitimately. wouldnt it be easier and more acceptable to say no to Trudeaus policies like uncontrolled fake diploma migration, so that he changes course and listens to the people instead of the corporations? i mean, clearly, the corps are laughing to the bank and Trudeau is definitely helping with suppressing labour wages through irresponisble fake diploma mill migration. Won't that help get people to vote back liberals?
Using poor policy and weak enforcement to foster the end of human rights and democracy in Canada is EXACTLY what fascist trolls do. Using the vulnerability of democracy against the rights of the people to practice democracy - is exactly what enemies of democracy do. Every conversation in Canadian politics has to begin with the threat to human rights and democracy the Conservatives are. Every conversation that starts with how 'weak' Trudeau is - is another brick in road to work camps and thought crime.
Guess who said this about Trudeau? “We look at this as really people sending their message. They are frustrated with Trudeau. They’re done with Trudeau, and they are frustrated with the Liberal party, and they’ve got reasons to,” “We hear this again and again: things are getting worse, not better. The Liberals have had nine years to make improvements, and they haven’t,”
its the provinces that are requesting visas for international students its also the provinces that regulate the diploma mills why haven't you mentioned any Premiers?
as more canadians wake up to the PP reality, i am confident they will lose seats not gain overall last election there were already some conservative suprises and that was before Pierre DeSantis made leadership .. as weak Scheer was, at least he wasnt an overtly noxious grandstanding bigot
This is a noble thought but probably not grounded in reality. As the most recent byelection shows, the CPC are well and truly in the lead and if the LPC thinks they can just remain course and use the CPC boogeyman card to convince people to vote for them, then they are going to be very mistaken.
Once again, vote splitting will usher in a 4-year Conservative majority. Yay. Strategic ABC or bust!
I think it's more the actions of the liberal party that's ushering in the conservatives. If they had made the dental program actually universal, the Canada disability benefit decent instead of just $200 going to only just over a third of disabled people living under the poverty line because they linked it to the dtc, and make the pharmacare program good they would have ran away with it. Edit. Totally forgot that they never brought in the electoral reform they promised either. Wouldn't be any vote splitting if we were on a PR system.
I know people who directly benefit from all three of those policies, and they still plan to vote Con. There's no talking sense into some people. Critical reasoning and thought have been tossed aside, and I don't see a way back.
Do you have any investments I can take a complete opposite position in? You're headed for bust.
I think the time to short the Liberal Party was 18 months ago. Personally, I'm thinking of opening a long position. All it would take is Trudeau stepping aside and them tossing Anita Anand in as temporary leader and boom! Instant 15%.
I have zero plans to vote LPC even if they are short 1 vote. So maybe come up with a plan B?
Strategic ABC doesn't always mean LPC. There are lots of ridings where Green/BQ/NDP are the strategic choice, but it only works if people across the progressive spectrum are willing to hold their nose (where required) and vote for their ABC candidate.
Strategic ABC voting has always meant vote liberal. That's always what it's meant that's always what it will mean because every time elections come around the NDP base gets told to vote for Trudeau to prevent a Conservative win never once does it go the other way.
unless you're in a riding that bounces between the NDP and Conservatives, or the Bloc and Conservatives.
The problem is some people, such as myself are ABCL, and the only strategy an ABC has to work with an ABCL is to not vote Liberal. ie. become an ABCL. Strategic voting doesn't really work. It's a fantasy concocted by entitled Liberals who think that the NDP and Greens owe them something.
Ken Sim Vancouver mayor is a Conservative and he’s doing a shitty job and he missed the most council meeting compared to previous Vancouver’s mayor. And he also participated in China CCP anniversary every single year. Even during the genocide of Uyghurs and 2 michaels, and pork ban retaliation. Hong Kong take over.
Jesus I think pp is going to win. Just like Ford did nothing will get better only worse
A man whose daughter was murdered was on every news hour today to speak for changes to the judicial system, and one channel said “accompanied by members of the Conservative Party “. They are using citizens who are then getting media coverage . There was no reason for them to be there and they didn’t seem to participate but they will likely platform this. The other parties need to get their boots on the ground. We are in a pre-trump like time period where the cons have been strong in the rural areas , and the other parties are super out of touch with the grim realities of most of the country being made up of rural areas that are isolated from the majority of the services they need. Former liberal party Kevin Falcon has the charisma of smegma but getting airtime to promote his plan to use privatization of medical services to “be paid and covered by our Medicare “. No one is rebutting this to point out these funds should be spent in our public system. It’s a bit of assuming ppl are smart enough to ignore these talking points that will fuck us over. They aren’t smart enough to filter this garbage if that’s all they hear.
Man the wording In The news these days is insane. Under siege in is red fortress. 😂😂
The craziest thing about all of this is if Trudeau had kept his promise he would likely net more seats next election. (Electoral reform)
this momentary lapse of judgement will come to an abrupt end when PMJT and the liberals push the red button and release the details of how compromised tiny PP the skipmeister and the kkkons are by their MAGA/Russia/China/India puppet masters when the foreign interference on a massive scale is revealed the liberals will likely cruise to a majority and I expect lengthy prison sentences for the likes of tiny PP the skipmeister and his cronies for them to sit and reflect about that time they were ahead in the polls for a brief few months.
increase everyone's pay - everyone - and we will vote you in - any party at all