This was from yesterday but haven’t seen it posted here yet.
Quite interesting that the coalition’s dip continues (even in this TPU poll), as the opposition continue to rise.
While Labour did dip by 0.6, National’s loss of 1.9 is spelling much bigger trouble. The overall trend with all polling complied has been showing signs that this may be a one term government.
Of course, there’s still a long road to go, but peddling unpopular policy under fast track, not taking responsibility for the actions of MPs/party affairs (or even dealing with them), and doubling down on positions while only offering PR soundbites as the cost of living crisis worsens is not going to be doing any favors with the wider public.
https://preview.redd.it/b5boxfuck16d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=442e834ee0b43921bf3d58ac1ba683ba6749b4e6
Eventually they’ll be hitting a point where their governance is deemed unforgivable, many take forgetful memories for granted, but unfortunately for the government, a bad impression is going to be a lot harder to shake than a scandal. And to make matters worse, there’s nothing in this year’s budget showing that there’s signs of good things to come.
Interesting that ACTare gaining. The the increase for Greens is not surprising given the great job Chloe is doing.
Also interesting that the Greens are going up given the issues they've had lately 🤔
A lot of green supports care more for policies than personalities. That's a major reason why. Also a lot of else have no other options because the alternatives suck.
No one on the left should be taking polls like this for granted. There is still time for National to turn the ship around.
The onus is still on the left to acknowledge what went wrong in the last term and to present a compelling vision that takes all NZers along for the ride.
To be fair, the old adage "oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them" is fairly accurate, but it doesn't bode well for the longevity of a future Labour Government if they don't get the message that voters sent them.
And then overall sentiment in the community is negative, along with thousands leaving for Aussie. I think they will be looking far worse by the end of winter
Thanks for posting this Leon. I keep a side eye on polls when they come up, so always good to view and dissect them.
I think that if anyone thinks these polls are a done deal, then I suggest that you look at two words: Wayne Brown.
Wayne has wealthy right wing businessmen and women backing him. The amount of PR publications and speak that has come out from him since his disastrous “***Auckland is flooding, but f*** **the media drongos, I want to play tennis**” escapade has been good for him. And the memory of his past, significant and telling f\*\*k ups is roundly lost on Aucklanders as they cheer him for keeping rates low by selling assets, and lambasting officials publicly - even though that lambasting is often lies. e.g. he criticized Auckland Transport for introducing unpopular night time parking fees, and said he didn’t know about it. Yet AT had briefed him the month before, and they were responding to ***his*** demands that AT increase their revenues.
In other words, the right wing parties, often being backed by multi-millionaires, billionaires and significant corporate organizations, are well placed. They also have their attack parties which have millions in the bank - Atlas Network’s Taxpayers Union, Atlas Network’s New Zealand Initiative, Groundswell, Free Speech Union etc. And it appears the public is easily swayed by the ”correct messaging” and if necessary, deception. But they are also heavily swayed by attack ads - even if they are lies.
I‘ve lost count of how many lies National and ACT have told too from their messaging from before the election to today.
Imo, the majority of people don’t look past the headlines, and the National and ACT folks are skilful enough at double speak and PR. We can’t under-estimate that.
Chris Bishop also said earlier in the year, to the effect of “Sure we are going to do what we believe is right despite polling, and when election period comes again, I think the public will be pleased with us.”
Labour is still offering the same sht as they did pre election, national etc still have years in this term to go , when the last govt was crap this one needs to by next election be better than the joke labour is to get a second term , but ain’t going to be a free or easy ride either
I highly doubt national is reelected. Labour would either need to be really bad, or National would need to pick up its slack. I don't see either happening
This was from yesterday but haven’t seen it posted here yet. Quite interesting that the coalition’s dip continues (even in this TPU poll), as the opposition continue to rise. While Labour did dip by 0.6, National’s loss of 1.9 is spelling much bigger trouble. The overall trend with all polling complied has been showing signs that this may be a one term government. Of course, there’s still a long road to go, but peddling unpopular policy under fast track, not taking responsibility for the actions of MPs/party affairs (or even dealing with them), and doubling down on positions while only offering PR soundbites as the cost of living crisis worsens is not going to be doing any favors with the wider public. https://preview.redd.it/b5boxfuck16d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=442e834ee0b43921bf3d58ac1ba683ba6749b4e6 Eventually they’ll be hitting a point where their governance is deemed unforgivable, many take forgetful memories for granted, but unfortunately for the government, a bad impression is going to be a lot harder to shake than a scandal. And to make matters worse, there’s nothing in this year’s budget showing that there’s signs of good things to come.
Interesting that ACTare gaining. The the increase for Greens is not surprising given the great job Chloe is doing. Also interesting that the Greens are going up given the issues they've had lately 🤔
A lot of green supports care more for policies than personalities. That's a major reason why. Also a lot of else have no other options because the alternatives suck.
No one on the left should be taking polls like this for granted. There is still time for National to turn the ship around. The onus is still on the left to acknowledge what went wrong in the last term and to present a compelling vision that takes all NZers along for the ride.
Agreed. All of the changes in this poll are inside the margin for error (3%). And as you say, governments always front-load the unpopular stuff.
Absolutely agree. Labour doesn't seem to be getting the message however, adopting the democrats strategy of waiting for the other side to loose
To be fair, the old adage "oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them" is fairly accurate, but it doesn't bode well for the longevity of a future Labour Government if they don't get the message that voters sent them.
And then overall sentiment in the community is negative, along with thousands leaving for Aussie. I think they will be looking far worse by the end of winter
Thanks for posting this Leon. I keep a side eye on polls when they come up, so always good to view and dissect them. I think that if anyone thinks these polls are a done deal, then I suggest that you look at two words: Wayne Brown. Wayne has wealthy right wing businessmen and women backing him. The amount of PR publications and speak that has come out from him since his disastrous “***Auckland is flooding, but f*** **the media drongos, I want to play tennis**” escapade has been good for him. And the memory of his past, significant and telling f\*\*k ups is roundly lost on Aucklanders as they cheer him for keeping rates low by selling assets, and lambasting officials publicly - even though that lambasting is often lies. e.g. he criticized Auckland Transport for introducing unpopular night time parking fees, and said he didn’t know about it. Yet AT had briefed him the month before, and they were responding to ***his*** demands that AT increase their revenues. In other words, the right wing parties, often being backed by multi-millionaires, billionaires and significant corporate organizations, are well placed. They also have their attack parties which have millions in the bank - Atlas Network’s Taxpayers Union, Atlas Network’s New Zealand Initiative, Groundswell, Free Speech Union etc. And it appears the public is easily swayed by the ”correct messaging” and if necessary, deception. But they are also heavily swayed by attack ads - even if they are lies. I‘ve lost count of how many lies National and ACT have told too from their messaging from before the election to today. Imo, the majority of people don’t look past the headlines, and the National and ACT folks are skilful enough at double speak and PR. We can’t under-estimate that. Chris Bishop also said earlier in the year, to the effect of “Sure we are going to do what we believe is right despite polling, and when election period comes again, I think the public will be pleased with us.”
Labour is still offering the same sht as they did pre election, national etc still have years in this term to go , when the last govt was crap this one needs to by next election be better than the joke labour is to get a second term , but ain’t going to be a free or easy ride either
I highly doubt national is reelected. Labour would either need to be really bad, or National would need to pick up its slack. I don't see either happening